PROBLEM DEFINITION:

First, there is data collection -

This is easy enough to do on land, but difficult over the ocean (because people don't live there) and up
in the air (also not a place easy to put a weather instrument). Furthermore, places where the properties
of the surface change quickly over a small distance (such as at the seacoast, or in the mountains), also
need an impractically high density of weather observations.

Second, there is the limitations of a computer, which is how all modern weather forecasts are done.
Sure, weather forecasts may become more accurate as processing power increases. They might also get
better if someone develops new mathematical laws or computer algorithms that more accurately
describe nature. (The algorithm a computer uses to solve equations is a big part of why different
weather models give different predictions). But the big limit is chaos. Weather depends on things at
small and large scales. A thermometer may measure the temperature to the nearest tenth of a degree.
A computer usually goes to 16 decimal places. But a chaotic system needs far more precision that that,
such as the position of every leaf on every tree on Earth, which is practically impossible to know at any
instant time. One way to think about chaos is if you place two leaves in a babbling brook next to each
other. At first, they will be kind of close to each other, but downstream they may be very far apart (say,
one gets caught in a whirlpool behind a rock, the other keeps going but takes some other crazy
meandering path). So, the problem is chaos, and that is not likely to be solved soon.

CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS:

1) FORECASTING UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY FOR NEW DELHI

The air pollution in New Delhi is extremely high and poses a tremendous health threat. This pollution
can become so extreme that city officials close schools and restrict traffic on highly polluted days. A
recent study in Lancet found that fine particulates and other pollutants may have caused more than 1
million deaths in India in 2017.

Solution:

NCAR is leading an effort in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) to
develop an air quality forecasting system that provides critical information for reducing people’s
exposure to potentially unhealthy air. The new forecasting system has begun providing 72-hour
forecasts of PM2.5. This system uses measurements of pollutants, computer modeling, and statistical
techniques. It updates the forecast every 24 hours. Preliminary results indicate that it is accurately
predicting day-to-day variability in PM2.5, giving officials and residents advance warning of unusually
poor air quality.The system helps decision-makers mitigate the risk of air pollution in Delhi and
surrounding regions. The technology may be adapted to provide air quality forecasts for other polluted
areas in developing countries, as well as for cities in the United States.
2) IDENTIFYING AND TRACKING THUNDERSTORMS

When multiple thunderstorms are occurring, it’s hard for forecasters to keep track of the characteristics
of each one (severity, hail potential, etc.) and where the storms are moving.

Solution:

Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting (TITAN) System. NCAR developed TITAN
to support research on thunderstorm morphology and rain production, but it was expanded to support
aviation hazard prediction, rain augmentation studies, and hydrology. TITAN has been installed at a
number of sites around the world.TITAN is used for meteorological and hydrological research,
forecasting related to aviation, severe weather forecasting, precipitation analysis and conducting and
evaluating weather modification projects. This technology is provided freely through a UCAR license.

3) IMPROVING SOLAR POWER FORECASTING

Weather (clouds, rain, snow, fog, dust, etc.) severely impacts the energy produced from solar energy
systems making the power difficult to integrate into the power grid.

Solution:

Solar Energy Prediction

NCAR leads a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting. The project
includes performing cutting edge research, testing the forecasts in several geographically- and
climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and ISOs, and wide dissemination of the research
results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national
laboratories, six universities, industry partners, six utilities, and four balancing authorities.The finished
system will be made available to the solar power industry to lower costs and enable more solar power
penetration. Significant savings to electrical utility rate payers is anticipated.

4) PROVIDING HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER PREDICTION

High resolution weather prediction can be improved by assimilating local observations within the
forecast region. Special handling of these observations is required by the modeling system to ensure
that they have the appropriate effect on the forecast.

Solution:

The Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation system (RTFDDA)

The RTFDDA system analyzes and predicts whether through integration of computer scripting code, a
numerical weather prediction (NWP) core, and a method of assimilating observations into that core.

Ensemble RTFDDA E-RTFDDA is identical to RTFDDA with one important difference: it produces multiple
versions (forecasts) of weather at any given time in the near future.

CFDDA (Climate Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation) create analyses of current and forecasts of future
weather.

This data assimilation system was designed to take advantage of local weather observations and has
been used to improve weather forecasts and historical climate analyses for the US Army Test Ranges,
wind energy prediction systems, and geospatial intelligence applications.

5) DEVELOPING A WEATHER FORECASTING MODEL

Developing weather prediction models is time consuming and complex. Rapid progress requires a
community of developers and a framework for integrating and testing the improvements to ensure skill
and moving the improvements to operational forecast centers.

Solution:

Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). WRF is a next-generation mesoscale numerical
weather prediction system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting
needs. The development effort in the late 1990s was a collaborative partnership principally among
NCAR, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Air Force Weather Agency
(AFWA), the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), the University of Oklahoma, and the FAA.The model
serves a wide range of meteorological applications across scales from tens of meters to thousands of
kilometers. WRF has thousands of users around the world.

6) Producing High Quality Weather Forecasts at locations where observations are not available.

Solution:

GRAFS (GRidded Atmospheric Forecast System) is a software system that is designed to address the
difficult problem of producing high quality weather forecasts at locations where observations are not
available. Accurate forecasts at remote locations are used to drive many user–specific applications such
as road temperature forecasts along an entire roadway, or soil temperature forecasts for agriculture.

GRAFS combines numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts, statistically refined point
forecasts, and climatology to interpolate forecast data to a high resolution grid. Applications using
GRAFS typically use 4–km grid cell resolution. Higher resolution grids may be appropriate in regions of
rapidly changing topography.
To generate these forecasts, GRAFS starts with model data from a NWP model(s) and then downscales
those data onto the target grid using a sophisticated climatological difference interpolation scheme.
Finally, this downscaled forecast is corrected to match a statistically optimized forecast generated at a
set of observation points.

Sample image of the surface air temperature generated by GRAFS at 21 UTC on April 8, 2009 zoomed in
over Colorado. The impact of the complex terrain is highlighted.

GRAFS technology is ideality suited for downstream systems and users that require precision location–
based forecasts. GRAFS is a licensed technology of the UCAR Foundation.

This funding from New York Power Authority is their cost share for the DOE Solar Power Forecasting
project. Deliverables are the same as for the DOE project.

We are using these funds to stand up a gridded forecasting system for CONUS. Since it is connected to
DOE Solar, the first forecasts will be for solar irradiance.The Goal is to start a new OpenSource gridded
forecasting system that could be used for a multitude of clients in the future.