Five years before Rajiv assassination, CIA prepared

brief on India without him; ‘Extremist Sikhs or

disgruntled Kashmiri Muslims may kill him’
India
January 29, 2017, 5:45 pm

 Rajiv Gandhi
 CIA
 Assassination
 Political Killing

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Five years before the former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated, the US Central Intelligence
Agency had prepared a very detailed ‘brief’ on what would be India’s political future if he was killed in 1991.

A 23-page report, titled “India After Rajiv ...” was put out as early as in March 1986 for comments from other
senior CIA officials. The “sanitised” report was declassified recently by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
The report, whose complete title is not entirely available as it is part deleted, was prepared on the basis of
inputs available to the CIA till January 1986.
The very first sentence of the report’s available (undeleted) page reads: “Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi faces at
least an even chance of assassination before his tenure in office ends in 1989.” It, however, later clearly said
that “assassination is the major near-term threat” to him.

Over five years later, Gandhi was assassinated at Sriperumbudur in Tamil Nadu on May 21, 1991. The first
section titled “Key Judgments” analyses and deliberates upon what likely scenario would emerge in the
domestic and international political situation if there is a sudden change in leadership minus Rajiv Gandhi and
the likely impact on India’s relations with the US, the then USSR and the region.

It also dealt with the threats posed to Gandhi’s life by various extremist groups at that time and the likely
fallout of his murder.

If Gandhi fell to a Sikh or Kashmiri Muslim assassin, widespread communal violence probably would erupt even
if strong preventive security measures — including deployment of Army and paramilitary troops across
northern India — were taken by the Indian President ...... (deleted)
CIA report

Interestingly, it also names P.V. Narasimha Rao and V.P. Singh, who could be the “interim successor” and
“likely candidates” in case of sudden exit by Rajiv. Rao took over as the Prime Minister in 1991.

In a section, titled ‘The Threat of Assassination: Stability in Jeopardy’, the report says “In our view, there is at
least an even chance in the next several years of an assassination, most likely by extremist Sikhs or disgruntled
Kashmiri Muslims who have targeted Rajiv,” besides “a fanatical Hindu”. Since a significant portion of this
section is deleted, it is not clear whether Sri Lankan Tamil extremists were also dealt with in the analysis.
However, another section deals in-depth with Rajiv’s mediation efforts to resolve “the conflict between
militant Sri Lankan Tamils and the Sinhalese-dominated government in Colombo...” Gandhi's departure
Besides Gandhi’s possible assassination, the report also analysed various scenarios of his “abrupt departure”
from the political scene before 1989. “Although we believe assassination is the major near-term threat to
Rajiv’s tenure, any of several other events could cause his abrupt departure from the political scene before
1989,” it said while listing out several other possibilities including “his death from natural causes or by
accident“. It ruled out the possibility of a decision by him “to resign out of frustration”, saying “we see no signs
of this and believe it would be out of character“.

“We suspect, however, that Rajiv would calculate — as we do — that he and his kin would be targets for
extremist violence even if he left public office.”

We believe (Rajiv) Gandhi’s death would represent a significant blow to US interests, regardless of the
circumstances of the succession.” ”...We believe Indo-US relations could also suffer as a result of domestic
political changes following Rajiv’s assassination
Report of CIA

The report assessed Rajiv’s policies ranging from dealing with extremists, foreign relations (including Sri
Lankan Tamil issue) to promoting acquisition of selected foreign technology” among others, and their
outcome. “Although some of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s policies will continue to encounter serious
resistance over the next several years, we believe his dominance of the Indian political scene is secure until at
least the end of his present term of office in December 1989, barring his incapacitation or death,” it said. The
report also dealt with the possibility of a “national government” taking over in case of a sudden exit by Rajiv,
while discounting the possibility of a military coup in such a scenario. Several portions of the 23-page report
were deleted before the CIA decided to release it under the Freedom of Information Act.