Water Crisis

Thirsty Days Ahead: Pakistan’s Looming
Water Crisis
Pakistan is running out of fresh water at an alarming rate.
By Muhammad Mohsin Raza

June 19, 2018
Pakistan is currently facing an acute water shortage that is likely to wreck havoc in the country in
the coming years. Recently, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) highlighted a grave water
shortage in the Indus Basin irrigation system (IBIS), the world’s largest contiguous irrigation
system, for the summer cropping season. The timing of the crisis is critical and had delayed the
sowing of the country’s main cash crops, including cotton. Experts believe the authorities were
aware of the approaching acute water shortage because of shortages during the winter cropping
season.
In Pakistan, the signs of water stress are ubiquitous in the form of water scarcity, resource
depletion, and contamination. The catastrophe implicates the country’s incompetent leadership,
and its inept administration and poor management of available natural water resources. This has
made Pakistan vulnerable to long drought spells and extreme floods. The climate change-led
water crisis not only poses a threat to the summer cropping season but has also adversely
affected the generation of hydroelectricity.
Such a crisis is inevitable in a country where political leaders are busy slinging mud at each other
in a lust for power while lacking vision. These leaders also oppose the construction of new
infrastructure for storing water. The fact that the word “dam” has been made highly controversial
and that its use often spurs heated discussions between the constituent provinces aptly highlights
Pakistan’s predicament.
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Pakistan is running out of fresh water at an alarming rate, and authorities anticipate that it is
likely to suffer a shortage of 31 million acre-feet (MAF) of water by 2025. The shortfall will be
devastating for a country with an agriculture-based economy. Nearly 70 percent of the Pakistan’s
population is directly or indirectly associated with agriculture, which accounts for 26 percent of
its gross domestic product (GDP).
Farmers are likely to feel the pinch in the form of in-season water shortages, which in turn, will
affect their crop growth and delay harvesting, resulting in reduced production.
In Pakistan, the majority of agricultural land is irrigated, after accounting for ground and
rainwater, with fresh water from the IBIS. The IBIS is fed through two major dams including
Tarbela and Mangla, which since construction, have lost storage capacity due to enormous silt
deposition. Both reservoirs are already hitting a dead level and are unlikely to carry forward the
required flow for the summer crops.
The anticipated water flow in the IBIS for this summer season is 95 MAF against a 112 MAF
average of past 10 years. Moreover, both reservoirs can only store up to 14 MAF of the 145
MAF that annually flows through the country.
Pakistan is storing less water among the available surface flows due to lack of significant
storage. And given the severely irregular water availability in rivers, the lack of adequate storage
at all levels makes it practically impossible to stock the priceless resource reasonably. However,
the country receives a significant amount of water from the monsoon spells that, if stored
properly, could provide with a sustainable irrigation system.
River flow did not improve during a brief rain spell in the early summer, and the temperature
also did not rise enough in the northern areas of the country to enable the melting of snow. The
country received 50 percent less snow this year than its long-term average in the catchment
areas, which further adds to the catastrophe.
Due to fewer water releases from the dams, farmers largely depend on groundwater. This puts
extra pressure on the aquifers. The majority of agricultural production depends on underground
water, which is not efficiently utilized causing the water table to plummet at an alarming rate.
Farming and urban communities pump far more amounts of groundwater than is replenished
naturally into the aquifers. With nearly 3 to 4 MAF shortfall of groundwater discharge annually,
the aquifers are receding at an alarming rate. Moreover, a 2015 NASA-led study confirmed that
the Indus Basin aquifer is among the most overstressed and rapidly depleting systems in the
world. Rainwater harvesting and partially treated sewage creeks for groundwater recharge are
two available solutions, but the country is far from adopting these on a large scale.
Furthermore, the farming community is wasting a tremendous amount of fresh water by using
outdated flood irrigation methods. About 95 percent of fresh water is utilized for irrigation, and
yet the country is achieving a lower per acre crop production when compared to India and China
in the region.
Exponential population growth in Pakistan has also dramatically changed the calculus of water
demand, resulting in a reduced water availability per capita. Populated cities like Karachi lack
sound water management and are already facing a Cape Town-like “day zero situation.”
Amid election season in Pakistan, the water crisis has already contributed to the politically
charged atmosphere, attracting massive public attention. The issue will undoubtedly influence
the rural electorate.
The water crisis is the writing on the wall and not hogwash. The snowcapped mountain ranges of
the country, the primary freshwater source, are not infinite. The political leadership still has time
to give attention to this pending catastrophe and include it in their mandates for the upcoming
polls.
Recently, a large social media campaign was launched with the objective of pushing the
incoming government into building the Kalabagh dam, a politically disputed project.
Undoubtedly, infrastructure is often popular and likely necessary, but such uncertain mega
projects are a waste of time and resources and cannot instantly address the present-day water
issue.
The most crucial next step should be to build new reservoirs at all scales to store the monsoon
surplus and reduce downstream flood peaks. The principle that every drop stored is a drop saved
can help to keep the river delta alive and can also solve many problems stemming from water
scarcity. Given the country’s impending water shortage, new reservoirs are equally vital to meet
the requirement of agriculture, rapid urbanization, population growth, food insecurity and
growing water demand of the industry.
The recently approved national water policy must be implemented both in letter and in spirit for
efficient water resource management. Furthermore, commissions must be set up to monitor the
efficient water resource management at all levels frequently and to offer timely
recommendations.
Given the limited capacity of state institutions to manage the water sector and because repeated
attempts and investments to fix existing infrastructure have failed, the country must think outside
the box. Innovation, particularly the participation of the private sector, could be key in managing
water resources efficiently. De-bundling services and encouraging the private sector to manage
water resources can be an excellent initiative to address current issues. The Agriculture
department ought to keep urging and facilitating farmers in shifting their focus to modern and
efficient irrigation technologies in lieu of outdated flooding methods.
Pakistan needs to learn from countries with even less water but higher domestic product (GDP)
and better quality of life indicators such as Israel, a country right in the middle of a desert that
has been able to reuse effluent to irrigate about 40 percent of its agricultural land with sound
political will, economic resources and by employing the right technology.
It’s a challenge for the state to save water not only for agriculture but also for human
consumption and to meet the rising water demand in other social and economic sectors. This
demands improved water governance, management and investment in scientific knowledge, all
of which entail commitment and resources. It’s time for decisive action.
Severe water shortage ahead, Kharif crops likely to suffer
The Newspaper's Staff ReporterUpdated March 22, 2018
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ISLAMABAD: With estimates of up to 40 per cent water shortage in April, the upcoming Kharif
crops face a serious challenge and may need delayed sowing.
The technical committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has been called on Thursday
to finalise water availability estimates for the Kharif season to enable the provinces to plan
sowing of crops accordingly.
The meeting would be presided over by director operations of Irsa and representatives of the
provinces and related agencies like Wapda and Met Office would submit their respective
estimates and finalise ‘anticipated water availability for Kharif 2018’ for advisory committee of
the Irsa.
The advisory committee would then approve a water distribution plan based on irrigation
requirements of the four provinces.
Kharif season lasts from April 1 to November 30, and rice, sugarcane, cotton and maize are some
of the key crops.
Talking to Dawn, sources said the two reservoirs – Tarbela and Mangla – were currently at dead
level, and therefore, unlikely to carry forward any water quantities into Kharif season. Total
storage currently in two reservoirs is estimated at 0.105 million cubic feet (MAF)
These sources said Punjab and Sindh were currently facing 56pc and 47pc water shortage
respectively. Overall shortage for the final days of the ongoing Rabi season was estimated at
51pc. With 56pc shortage, Punjab was currently getting 27,300 cusec water while Sindh was
receiving 20,000 cusec with 47pc shortage. Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are always
exempt from water shortage because of their capacity constraints.
Sources said the relevant agencies and the provinces were anticipating severe shortage in the
month of April because of unusual weather conditions currently. Despite the recent brief rain
spell, river flows have not improved while temperatures did not increase enough to facilitate
snow melting in northern Pakistan.
Sources said water flows in the major rivers had declined significantly in recent days. The river
flows were recorded at 43,600 cusec at reservoirs while the provinces were drawing about
44,800 cusec for their ripe crops.
“The water situation is really alarming,” a senior government official said. A technical
committee would assess the situation and finalise estimates for water availability during the
coming crop season, he added.
According to the latest data released by Irsa on Wednesday, Tarbela dam was at its dead level of
1,386 feet, with inflows of 15,700 cusecs and outflows of 15,700 cusecs, having zero water
storage.
Water level at the Mangla dam stood at 1,050 feet on Wednesday morning against its dead level
of 1,040 feet, having a storage of 0.034 MAF.
Inflows at Mangla were recorded at 11,700 cusecs against outflows of 12,900 cusecs. As a result,
total inflows at rim stations were recorded at 43,600 cusecs against total outflows below rim
stations at about 44,800 cusecs.
Indus Basin Irrigation System of Pakistan
Pakistan, a country of enchanting landscapes offers a combination of beaches, mountains,

beautiful deserts and valleys. Its vast farm lands are sustained by the Indus Basin Irrigation
System (IBIS), the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world. The IBIS irrigates 45
million acres of farm land which produces wheat, rice, fruits, vegetables, sugarcane, maize and
cotton in abundance for local use as well as for export.
This report provides the historical context in which the IBIS was developed. It discusses the
economic impact of the IBIS on Pakistan, and provides recommendations for some current
problems related to insufficient drainage and inefficient farming practices.
Historical Background
The Indus Valley has been the host to one of the most ancient civilization of human history, the
Indus Valley Civilization. After the extinction of the Indus Civilization, new settlements
especially in doabs grew slowly. New irrigation systems started to evolve. Inundation canals and
small dams were constructed and population grew all around this area. In order to reduce the
occurrence of low irrigation water supply the British authorities, towards the middle of the last
century, started modernizing and expanding the irrigation system of the Indus Basin.
Treaty Between Pakistan and India
In 1947, the Indian sub continent was partitioned by the British into two independent states –
Pakistan and India. After the partition a commission was set up to resolve any issue that may
emerge as a consequence of the partition. The matter of utilization of water resources of Indus
Basin was raised by Pakistan. The boundary commission, chaired by Sir Cyril Radcliff, awarded
control barrages (situated very close to the border) to India, while 90 percent of irrigated land lay
in Pakistan.
After a protracted negotiation of ten years through facilitation of the World Bank, the Indus
Basin Treaty was signed by India and Pakistan in 1960 for distribution of water resources in the
Indus Basin. According to the terms of the treaty India was given the exclusive use of the waters
of the eastern rivers namely Ravi, Sutlej and Beas. Pakistan was not given its full historic share
and was allocated only 75 percent of its legitimate share of the waters in Indus Basin.
Consequently, Pakistan agreed to embark upon a gigantic project nicknamed as “Indus Basin
Replacement Works”. The extensive undertaking involved the construction of two major dams,
five barrages and eight link canals.
Pakistan’s IBIS
Pakistan’s economy is largely based on its agricultural produce. Water is therefore a critical
resource for its sustained economic development. In order to fully utilize the river water
resources, the IBIS has emerged as the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world. The
IBIS comprises of three large dams, eighty five small dams, nineteen barrages, twelve inter-river
link canals, forty-five canal commands and 0.7 million tube wells In monetary terms, this
network is the biggest infrastructure enterprise of Pakistan accounting for approximately US$
300 billion of investment.
Water Ability of the IBIS
There are three main sources of water availability in the Indus Basin:
A. The average annual flow of Western Rivers of Indus Basin is approximately 142 million acre
feet (MAF). About 104 MAF of this water is diverted for irrigation purposes and about 35
million acre feet outflows to the Arabian Sea.
B. Rain Water:
Another source of water is the rain fall. Irrigated areas of Indus Basin receive on average 40
million acres feet of water annually.
C. Ground Water:
The third source of water is the ground water. It provides approximately 40 percent of crop water
requirements of the country.
Challenges in Indus Basin Irrigation System
For any sustainable irrigation system that is dependent on river water supplies, it is necessary to
have a system of affluent disposal. However, when the British engineers designed and
constructed the barrages and canals in Punjab and Sindh, they did not install an affluent disposal
system. This lack of an affluent disposal system gave rise to the twin problems of water logging
and salinity. The problem is currently being addressed through construction of a network of
disposal drains, many of which have been completed while more are under execution.
The Economic Impact of Indus Basin Irrigation System
The agricultural produce, in addition to providing food security constitutes:
A. 23 percent of GDP
B. 70 percent of total export earnings
C. 54 percent employment of labour force
The overwhelming majority of its produce comes from the areas irrigated in the Indus Basin. The
IBIS is therefore essential in sustaining the agriculture and consequently economic well-being of
Pakistan. The Indus Basin now serves as the bread basket of Pakistan. Its land use is furnished
below.
Current Problems and Recommendations
Farmers in Pakistan receive their share of irrigation waters on a rotational basis. To protect the
right of share of their water, the farmers are using more than the optimum quantity of water
required for healthy crops. Lack of modern irrigation techniques and agricultural practices
further add to the wastage of irrigation water. Some solutions outlined below can potentially
serve to address this issue:
1. Increase plantation of fruit trees.

2. Expand forested areas.
3. All existing dams small and large should be used for fish breeding and harvesting.
4. Develop agricultural based industries and timber factories in the rural areas to provide
employment to small farmers and increase the percentage of value added goods for export.
5. Group small farms into larger units for cooperative farming using the latest irrigation and
farming techniques and modern agricultural practices.
6. Increase the production of beans, lentils and edible oil seeds to reduce their imports.
7. Develop pastures for cattle farming and increase milk and meat production.
8. Big land holdings more than five thousand acres of area should be made available for co
operative farming.
9. The level and standard of research should be enhanced in the existing agricultural universities of
Pakistan.
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The Express Tribune > Pakistan > Punjab
Expert talk: Pakistan running dry fast, water

conservation must
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Expert talk: Pakistan running dry fast, water

conservation must
By APP
Published: March 29, 2018
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PHOTO: FILE
RAWALPINDI: Pakistan may face shortage of 31 Million Acres Feet (MAF) of water by 2025
which can pose a grave threat to Pakistan’s economy said the speakers while addressing a
seminar organized here on Wednesday in connection with World Water Day at Pir Mehr Ali
Shah Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi (PMAS-AAUR).
The speakers underlined the need for individual and collective efforts for the conservation of
water.The seminar was arranged under the theme ‘Nature for Water” by Faculty of Agriculture
Engineering in collaboration with Rural Areas Water Association Pakistan (RAWAP) for
focusing the attention on the importance of water.
Every drop matters : Lahore well on its way to running dry
Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources Director Dr Manzoor Ahmad Malik stressed
the need for interventions compatible with nature. “Alternative source of energy such as solar
energy can be used instead of cutting trees to burn in stoves which is causing deforestation.”
Economic perspectives of major field crops of
Pakistan: An empirical study
Author links open overlay panelAbdulRehmana
LuanJingdongaBabarShahzadbAbbas AliChandiocImranHussaindGhulamNabieMuhammad ShahidIqbalf
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psrb.2016.09.002Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license
Abstract
Agriculture is considered the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which relies heavily on its major
crops. There are vast gaps between the acquired and actual output of produce, which suffers due
to a lack of appropriate technology, use of inputs at improper times, unavailability of water and
land use and inadequate education about insect pest control, which not only negatively affects
the produce but also significantly reduces the amount of produce. Farmers mainly use synthetic
chemicals for the control of insect pests, but these are used unwisely. To emphasize the major
shortfalls and actual performance of major field crops, this study investigated the relationship
between agricultural GDP and the output of major crops, including wheat, rice, sugarcane, maize
and cotton, in Pakistan over a period of 65 years from 1950 to 2015. Time series data were
collected from the Economic Survey of Pakistan (various publications). Crop data were analysed
using the ordinary least square method and the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, and the
results were interpreted using Johansen's co-integration test. Our study finds that the output of
wheat, rice and cotton has a positive and significant relationship with the agricultural GDP of
Pakistan, while the output of sugarcane has a negative and non-significant relationship with the
agricultural GDP of Pakistan. Therefore, this study recommends that the government of Pakistan
should launch new funding programmes for the development of the agricultural sector.
 Previous article
 Keywords
Economy
GDP
Pesticides
Major crops
Water scarcity
1. Introduction
Agriculture is an important sector of Pakistan's economy. This sector directly supports the
country's population and accounts for 26 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The major
agricultural crops include cotton, wheat, rice, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables. The irrigation
system of Pakistan belongs to one of the world's largest systems to support agricultural
production. There are two main seasons in Pakistan for production of crops: crops such as cotton,
rice and sugarcane start in May and are harvested in November, whereas the wheat crop extends
from November to April. A key urgent need to improve agricultural production is to use
resources, mainly land and water, more efficiently. However, the change is mainly dependent on
large landowners, who own 40 percent of arable land and control most of the irrigation systems,
making it difficult to pass wide-ranging reforms. Pakistan is a net importer of agricultural
products, with total annual imports of approximately 2 billion USD, including wheat, edible oils,
pulses and food additives.
In the wheat production system, Punjab, which is Pakistan's irrigated province, has had a
historical focus on a green revolution in wheat. During the 1960s, the Green Revolution in
Pakistan also involved public investment in irrigation canals and market development (Renkow,
2000). The rural society and wheat production were transformed; the anticipation of starvation
retreated (Hazell, 2010). Despite this applauded improvement, the sustainable production of
wheat remained the primary focus of Pakistan's population. The government of Pakistan still
needed improvements for the production of wheat in different varieties. Previous research on the
wheat crop has shown a slow growth rate of crop variety replacement by farmers in promoting
new varieties of wheat in Pakistan (Heisey, 1990, Iqbal et al., 2002). In 1997, an estimated area
of one million ha was used for wheat production, which was 51 percent of the entire wheat area
in Pakistan (Smale et al., 2002).
Pakistan plays a major role worldwide as a rice exporter, and it annually exports approximately 2
million tons, which is 10 percent of the world's trade. In Basmati rice, approximately 25 percent
of exports is Pakistan's share. Rice exports are the second highest source of income in Pakistan.
Rice grains fulfil approximately 60 percent of the population of Pakistan's food needs, and rice is
a potential source of food worldwide for animals during the winter (Drake et al., 2002, Nguyen
et al., 2008). Rice is an important food for Pakistan. The usage of pesticides increased after the
1950s, when 250 metric tons of pesticides were imported for greater improvement of production.
Its usage increased by 2158.6 percent from 1952 to 2004 (Khan et al., 2010).
Cotton is another cash crop of Pakistan, and Pakistan is the world's largest producer of raw
cotton. In 2011–2012, Pakistan ranked as the 4th largest cotton producer, with a 9.81 percent
share in global cotton. In the same period, Pakistan's yarn exports contributed 26.1 percent and
14.3 percent to the global market. Cotton exports accounted for 46 percent of Pakistan's total
exports and provided 35 percent employment to the labour force (FAO., 2012, GOP., 2012).
According to current agricultural policy, the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee has aimed to
increase the production of cotton from 40 percent to 60 percent (PCCC, 2008). However, some
evidence has shown that insufficient irrigation water is one of major problems in agricultural
production in Pakistan. Farmers commonly apply water to furrowed fields by flood irrigation,
resulting in low agriculture water productivity (Kahlown et al., 2007).
Maize is another cash and food crop of Pakistan, serving as feed as well as silage, and it is a high
yielding cereal crop globally. After wheat, rice and cotton, maize is the fourth chief cereal crop
of Pakistan, it is mainly sown in two seasons: spring and autumn. In spring, it is planted from
February to March, while for autumn, maize is grown from July to August. The maize life cycle
depends upon the availability of water; the water discrepancy at any phonological stage, i.e.,
reproductive and maturity stages, has several retorts and can damage the grain yield, and
previous research (Heisey and Edmeades, 1999) has shown that drought stress also causes grain
yield damage when it occurs in the reproductive stage of the crop's life cycle.
Sugarcane is a high-value cash crop of Pakistan and is quite important for sugar-related
production. It accounts for 3.4 percent of additional agricultural value and 0.7 percent of the
gross domestic product (GDP). As a sugar crop, sugarcane is the chief biofuel crop worldwide
(Robinson et al., 2011). The slow growth rate of sugarcane in the early stage provides space and
resources for intercropping in the field. Many studies have shown that sugarcane intercropping
with other crops, such as peas, watermelon and onions, could decrease the yield of sugarcane and
could increase economic income significantly (Al-Azad and Alam, 2004, Nazir et al., 2002).
2. Current scenario of major field crops of Pakistan

2.1. Wheat
Wheat is an important cereal crop for many countries, where it is consumed as a staple food. It is
an admitted fact that nothing is more important than the needs of human beings. Sustainability
and reliability in food production are very important for sustainable crop production. For wheat
production, water supply and energy are important and will continue to constitute an important
foundation to ensure the sustainability of agriculture and food production reliability. However,
water and energy preservation are two key issues for researchers to decrease the costs of these
two commodities in such a manner that production will not be hampered. In the 1980s, Pakistan
experienced a golden era of water management in the construction of the canal irrigation system,
which was developed at the same time; however, the results of different droughts reduced what
the system could achieve. The country could only barely emerge from the eye-opening shock of
water scarcity that persisted for almost three years from 1999 to 2002. Water scarcity caused
over-use of ground water by pumping out this water, consuming an enormous amount of
available energy, while the country was already facing a problem with this commodity (Pakistan,
2008–09).
Moreover, it has been reported that the availability of water for agriculture is expected to
decrease from 72 percent to 62 percent in the period from 1995 to 2020, and globally, a decrease
from 87 percent to 73 percent in developing countries was also estimated (Khan et al., 2006).
Because Pakistan is an agricultural country, water scarcity in agriculture will have
disadvantageous impacts on its economics because agriculture directly subsidizes its GDP, and
more than 40 percent of labour is directly or indirectly engaged in this sector (Pakistan, 2008–
09). In Pakistan, traditional crops, such as wheat, are planted on a flat basin that is directly
flooded with water for irrigation. There are enormous water losses with this type of irrigation.
Evaporation and deep percolation losses also cause a severe shortages to crops related to
overexploitation of groundwater, encouraging a search for alternative methods of water
application to crops, for example, raised bed (RB) technology, to meet water demands.
There is a serious challenge for agriculturists to meet the feeding requirements of nine billion
people by the middle of the 21st century (FAO, 2009). To produce more food from less water in
arid and semi-arid areas is a challenge for today's agriculture (Shideed, 2011). Water shortage
and scarcity cause degradation of land due to rain-fed agriculture (Suleimenov et al., 2011) and
lower food production, particularly in the agricultural and semi-agricultural zones of Africa
(Fraiture et al., 2010). Approximately 80 percent of the world's agriculture comprises rain-fed
land, which produces 80 percent of the food globally (Falkenmark et al., 2001, Valipour, 2013).
In North Africa and West Asia, 95 percent of land is rain-fed, and approximately 40 percent of
the land in Uzbekistan has been used due to water shortages, causing despoiled fields
(Shaumarov and Birner, 2013, Zakaria et al., 2013). Wheat is an important crop in Pakistan due
to its widespread use as food (Iqtidar et al., 2006). In Pakistan, 6.35 million hectares of land are
irrigated with canal water, 12.53 million hectares are cultivated through tube wells, and for the
remaining 3.59 million hectares, no water is available, for a total 22.45 of million hectares (GOP,
2012). Limited water results in susceptibility to water scarcity conditions, causing wheat biomass
to reduce wheat crops (Oweis and Hachum, 2004, Tavakkoli and Oweis, 2004, Xie et al., 2005).
Poor and sparsely distributed rainfall in arid regions of Pakistan further aggravates this situation.
Losses ranging from very low yields or even complete loss under severe water stress in wheat
crops have been well documented (Oweis, 1997). Harvesting and utilization of rain water have
been successfully used in many arid regions, using runoff water from the catchment area and
delivering it to the collection acreage (Qiang et al., 2006, Short and Lantzke, 2006). Rain water
efficiency can be improved with appropriate water harvesting techniques, such as micro-
watersheds (Rogelio et al., 2006, Zakaria et al., 2012). Using this technique can increase the
capacity of water per unit of crop area and can also increase productivity (Oweis and Hachum,
2003, Ramotra and Giakwad, 2012). The area under wheat cultivation per 1000 ha and the area
yield in kilograms per hectares in Pakistan are shown in Fig. 1, Fig. 2, respectively.
1. Download full-size image

Fig. 1. Area under wheat cultivation, 1948–2015.
Fig. 2. Yield of wheat crop in kg/ha, 1948–2015.
2.2. Rice
Rice is an important crop for many countries, and its culture extends from the humid tropics to
northeast China and southeast Australia, from sea level to an altitude of more than 2500 m in the
moderate regions of Nepal and Bhutan. Although most rice is cultivated in Asia, there are many
rice cultivation areas in Oceania and Europe. Due to its wide geographical distribution, rice is
cultivated in many climates and on a wide range of soils, with huge differences in soil properties.
Early studies emphasized flooded rice production in Asia due to the characterization of rice soils
(IRRI., 1978, IRRI., 1985, Kawaguchi and Kyuma, 1977, Moormann and Breemen, 1978).
However, most studies have focused on the specific characteristics of waterlogged soil treatment
(Banta and Mandoza, 1984, Kirk, 2004) (Kögel-Knabner et al., 2010, Ladha et al., 1992,
Ponnamperuma, 1972, Wassmann et al., 2000), and recent studies have emphasized that the
spatial representation and distribution of rice soil are rare.
Consequently, comparable quantitative data about paddy soil quality areas and rice production
systems are unavailable, and important issues related to soil quality are usually treated only
qualitatively and can usually be answered by local experts. To better understand the spatial
representation of soil quality and barriers could serve several purposes. To evaluate the target
and focus on agricultural research, spatial information about environmental constraints on crop
production can be used (Hijmans et al., 2003), assisted by communication technologies (Singh
and Singh, 2010). The spatial distribution and properties of soil, climate, hydrology-related, and
abiotic factors emphasize the importance of the target, which can help with specific features,
such as submergence tolerance (Xu et al., 2006), tolerance of better rice varieties (Huang et al.,
2010), phosphorus deficiency tolerance (Gamuyao et al., 2012) and water stress tolerance
(Verulkar et al., 2010). Similarly, this type of information can be used to improve the study and
dissemination of management options and issues related to a particular soil. The sustainability of
the conventional rice system is susceptible to water and deteriorating energy resources. For this
reason, resource-saving technologies (RCTs) are being developed and disseminated to promote
global rice production (CGIAR., 2010, IRRI., 2010).
Another rice production technology has shown great potential to improve resource utilization
technology in non-banks and non-flooded areas, similar to other crops, such as unsaturated soils
under wheat and maize and drought sowing of upland rice. Aerobic rice varieties are developed
by crosses between traditional lowland and upland varieties that combine some of the yield-
potential traits of lowland varieties with adaptation to aerobic soils (Atlin et al., 2006). Aerobic
rice systems (ARS) have been established in temperate environments, and work is under way to
improve these systems in tropical and subtropical regions to improve the incomes of local
farmers and regional and national food security (Maclean et al., 2002, Prasad and Donald, 2011).
Another technology of rice cultivation is paddy rice, which is usually grown by transplanting 25-
to 35-day-old seedlings in well prepared puddled soils to control purification, weed growth, and
infestation, and it requires an enormous amount of fresh water for its proper growth. Growing
paddy rice in Pakistan is a serious challenge for food security, while limited water reservoirs and
increasing population are other challenges (Briscoe and Qamar, 2009). According to an estimate,
during the fiscal year 2011–12 (1 July to 30 June), the availability of water from canal irrigation
was approximately 10 percent less than the long-term average systemic water use of 128 billion
m3 (GOP, 2012). The ground water table has decreased by a factor of nearly 0.3 m per year
(Hussain, 2002), and over the years, it has decreased due to groundwater exploitation and
utilization of more than 7 m (Kahlown et al., 2007). Increases in fuel prices have also resulted in
high charges for pumping ground water, resulting in decreased net economic profits. Shortage of
labour is another factor during growth periods of rice that hampers its production and causes
delays in transferring seedlings because manual evacuating and transplanting of nurseries are
important tasks for rice cultivation. The limited labour force mainly consists of unskilled and
contractual women and teenagers, with a lack of quality assurance, uneven plantations and
economic densities much lower than agronomically optimal (Baloch et al., 2005, Chaudhary
et al., 2001, Farooq et al., 2011).
More recently, several techniques have been introduced for rice cultivation, such as alternative
wetting-drying, direct seeding, mechanized systems of rice amplification, and aerobic rice
systems, and these systems have been verified and up-scaled in the provinces of Punjab and
Sindh by the Pakistan Research Council (PARC), in collaboration with national and international
research organizations (IRRI., 2010, Sharif, 2011). For a brief discussion of these technologies
and systems, we refer to Bouman et al. (2007). For instance, we are absorbed in the performance
of aerobic rice systems, in which, as an alternative to the transplanting of seedlings, seeds are
directly sown in the field. This system is well suited for those areas where there is a shortage of
labour, and it also reduces the unit area cost (Pandey et al., 2002, Pandey and Velasco, 2005).
Furthermore, there is a wide range of chemicals for weed control, which they also decreases the
labour constraints for weeding during the season (Farooq et al., 2011). Irrigation requirements
are fulfilled when there is a need to provide water to fields when soil water drops to less than a
critical level. The overall performance of aerobic rice and directly seeded rice can be a more
profitable and environmentally maintainable production system. For these reasons, aerobic rice
systems could be an attractive alternative technology system in water-scarce environments
(Bouman et al., 2007, Bouman et al., 2005).
According to a report published by FAO (2000), approximately 40 percent of all food is

produced through irrigated agriculture, which consumes approximately 69 percent of all fresh
water resources. Furthermore, estimations of world population growth predict increased demands
for cereals, as well as rice and wheat, by 1.27 percent annually between 2000 and 2025
(Rosegrant and Cai, 2000). To achieve this projected food demand, there should be an increase
of 17 percent in fresh water resources for irrigated agriculture (Seregeldin, 1999). To fulfil the
requirements of the increasing population, there is pressure on the agricultural sector to produce
higher yields in agricultural and semi-agricultural countries, where population growth is also
high and the availability of fresh water is low, further intensifying lower consumption of water to
produce more for an increasing population. This trend drives the bulk production of cereals,
especially rice and wheat, using inferior amounts of irrigation water. Pakistan is expected to
suffer such a scarcity of irrigated water in the near future. In Pakistan, farmers generally practice
open flooded systems to irrigate fields in bundled units, resulting in poor water uniformity, long
irrigation events, and over-irrigation (Kahlown and Kemper, 2004).
There is a trend towards relying on rice crops requiring standing water during the growing
season to exploit the yields, and this type of practice leads to poor water use effectiveness. Many
studies within Pakistan have revealed that 13 cm–18 cm of water is applied for irrigation, which
is considerably more than the consumptive use between two irrigation events, which is for
instance, approximately 8 cm (Kahlown et al., 2001). Additionally, irrigation efficiencies on
farms range between 23 percent and 70 percent (Clyma and Ashraf, 1975, Kahlown et al., 1998,
Kijne and Kuper, 1995). Furthermore, using a pressurized irrigation method, the planting of rice
and wheat has been performed in different countries (Spanu et al., 1996). Sprinkler irrigation,
such as with portable rain guns, can be used to apply a depth of water, and with the prevailing
climatic conditions of the Indian subcontinent, sprinklers have improved farm irrigation
efficiency by up to 80 percent (Sharma, 1984). The area for rice crops per 1000 ha and the yield
in kilograms per hectares in Pakistan are shown in Fig. 3, Fig. 4.
Fig. 3. Area under rice crops, 1948–2015.
Fig. 4. Yield of rice crop in kg/ha, 1948–2015.
2.3. Cotton
Cotton is an important cash crop grown in Pakistan, and it contributes substantially to the
national economy of Pakistan and is a key source of livelihood for rural people (Pakistan, 2012–
13). It is widely grown in hot and humid areas, where there are high pest hazards because some
insects are especially deleterious to the yield and quality of cotton. There are many requirements
for high yield of cotton, such as high input, fertilizers, chemicals for pest control, highly drained
soil, and water, and their utilization deteriorates the environment in different ways (Shafiq and
Rehman, 2000). The major impacts of high input result in greenhouse gas emissions and water
pollution due to leaching (IPCC, 2006). In Pakistan, freshwater bodies are being contaminated
through runoff and the leaching of nitrates from agricultural land (Azizullah et al., 2011), and
similarly, overuse and misuse of chemical pesticides also have deleterious impacts on crops and
animals as well (Tariq et al., 2007). To obtain high yields, mechanization has also intensified the
use of non-renewable energy. Farm management practices and the chemical and physical
properties of the agroecosystem and soil greatly influence the magnitude of environmental
hazards, and resource use in different forms and their effects vary with these practices
(Choudhury and Kennedy, 2005). Furthermore, intensive input use, as a form of insurance for
cotton yield and quality, incurs high production costs. Both environmental hazards and the high
costs of cotton production challenge its sustainability and farmers' incomes in Pakistan;
therefore, analysing and quantifying joint environmental impacts and the economic performance
of cotton production are necessary. The question remains regarding how environmental impacts
can be reduced while farmer income is sustained. The issue underlying this research is the trade-
off among input use, environmental impact and economic performance in the cotton-growing
regions of Pakistan.
Cultivation of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is a highly extensive type of farming that requires
excessive utilization of resources to protect the crop from insect pests, and synthetic chemicals
are used extensively for better crop growth (Deguine et al., 2008, Hashemi and Damalas, 2011).
There are many factors responsible for low cotton yield, but insects are ranked at the top of the
biotic agents that not only deteriorate the quality of cotton produce but also reduce the yield.
Farmers cannot afford highly protective measures due to small land holdings in almost all of the
developing countries, and their extensive use leads to environmental pollution (Fitt, 2000).
Another important aspect of cotton cultivation is plant pathogens, which are also regarded a
serious threat to some areas, but their importance is less than that of other factors, such as inputs
and agrochemicals (Oerke, 2006). Weeds are the second most important biotic agent posing a
threat to cotton yield because they interfere with nutrient use and space, and they affect cotton
while creating competition. Although there has been improvement in controlling these pathogens
through chemical control, there has been large harvest loss, reaching almost 30 percent. Potential
losses through non-utilization of inputs and weeds account altogether for 40 percent and 9
percent, respectively, of total losses being caused by pathogens and viruses (Oerke, 2006).
Although large amounts of synthetic chemicals are used in cotton farming, losses account for
almost 29 percent despite the use of pest control measures.
Crop protection has increased with increased use of synthetic chemicals and fertilizers in cotton
crops, resulting in an overall increase in the yield of cotton crops (Damalas, 2009, Damalas and
Eleftherohorinos, 2011). Today, agricultural productivity depends upon the utilization of
chemicals; indeed, it is a well-known and extensive method for integrated pest management, and
therefore, it is an integral part of agricultural systems. Synthetic chemicals have helped farmers
to manage common pests easily and effectively that would otherwise pose a serious threat of
reduced crop yield. In contrast, these chemical inputs in the agricultural systems not only create
serious non-negotiable threats to the public but they also deteriorate the value of water and land
environments (Carvalho, 2006, Maroni et al., 2006, Tilman et al., 2002, Werf, 1996). Moreover,
another major concern regarding food commodities is the ingestion of food stuffs and water that
are contaminated by these pesticide residues (Carvalho, 2006). Therefore, risks regarding the
public and increasing ecological pollution posed by these pesticides have increased continuously,
thus increasing resistance to their use (Atreya, 2008, Fantke et al., 2012, Pimental, 2005, Soares
and Porto, 2009). Although there has been great improvement in the technical development of
application equipment, which has enabled farmers to use chemicals more precisely, this
professional use has not yet been transferred to the everyday technology that is used in many
emerging nations.
At the same time, agricultural production can suffer from significant, negative effects due to
damage to labour (Ajayi, 2000). This type of negative outcome can be evident in the of form
lower production of farm due to less availability of labour for farms, which can decrease the
income of labour because of lower outcomes or may reduce the free time available for the
household because of time needed to attend to sick workers, or it can increase the workload of
healthy workers. Furthermore, the measurement of health costs caused by the use of pesticides
helps policy developers to determine the deleterious results of pesticide use on the overall
reduction in terms of morbid effects on workers. Kishi et al. (1995) documented the relationship
between the severity of health impacts on personal hygiene and the utilization of chemicals;
furthermore, they stated that the associations between health dangers and exposure to pesticides
are pesticide dependent, but in contrast, lack of data has further intensified the situation, and the
existing data often disagree about the degree of acceptance of this hypothesis due to unreliable
consequences and issues about some methodologies that must be amended. As a consequence,
decreased pesticide use has been perceived by many people as an approach to improve the health
status of people in rural areas.
There is a dire need to propose some effectual well-being strategies to decrease the effects of
pesticides on the rural population, which could further exploit the development of monetary
assessment of health costs that are caused by pesticide usage. Nonetheless, the assessment should
focus on both market and non-market costs. In rural areas, smallholders are reluctant, they are
not concerned with health-related expenditures encountered to cure illnesses resulting from
direct exposure to insecticides, and they ignore imperceptible costs, such as anxiety, pain and
suffering, as a usual part of their work. Moreover, the health impacts of pesticide use have
traditionally been neglected from the investigations of incomes in farming, and the reliability of
data and lack of appropriate methodologies are serious causes of health impacts due to
insecticide usage that have usually been ignored in investigations of earnings in rural research
and the estimation of precise farming strategies (Atreya, 2005). In contrast, there is no direct
noticeable value prevailing for the decrease in insecticide health concerns, and non-market
assessment methodologies to monetize individual preferences should be applied. These
techniques are truly helpful, and they assist in such a manner that values are reflected in the
individual's willingness to pay (WTP) to decrease human health hazards. Therefore, personal
preferences regarding health concerns are related to the reimbursement of risks. Then and now,
the health assessments of costs by insecticides have absorbed market modules, generally
estimating the costs of sickness (Ajayi, 2000).
Many factors are responsible for pesticide use due to people's health concern because opinions
about insecticide hazards affect farmers' overall behaviours regarding their usage (Damalas and
Eleftherohorinos, 2011, Dasgupta et al., 2005, Hashemi et al., 2012, Liu and Huang, 2013).
Therefore, there must be basic education for pesticide handling and safe use, as well as
uninterrupted emphasis on basic safety measures for pesticide use, which should be considered
and which are essential to change the wrong behaviours of growers that can be dangerous to their
health (Damalas et al., 2006a, Damalas et al., 2006b). In contrast, respondents' socio-geographic
features are significantly important with regard to health hazards and perceptions and WTP
attitudes (Huang, 1993, Sjoberg, 2000).
Use of pesticides is very important for pest management in cotton, and it mostly relies on proper
use of synthetic chemicals. However, there are many differences from the proper application of
chemicals during the crop cycle because many workers in the field do not apply pesticides
according to crop needs, and they do not even know the basic components of farming and insect
pest control (Khan et al., 2015, Midega et al., 2012, Ochou et al., 1998, Sinzogan et al., 2004).
Furthermore, in developing countries, due to a lack of proper education, farmers are unable to
apply pesticides, even to cotton, to control the insect pests, and they are unaware of the basic
concepts of integrated pest management (IPM) (Arshad et al., 2009, Yang et al., 2005). One of
the factors affecting pesticide use in practice is farmers' knowledge of pest management. Much
of the literature has revealed that due to a lack of proper information about pest management,
pesticide use by farmers was strongly linked to extensive pesticide usage (Chen et al., 2013,
Khan et al., 2015). A clear inclination was found towards pesticide overuse among farmers in the
Punjab province, but there was a declining tendency after proper education about integrated pest
management (IPM) (Khan and Damalas, 2015). Similarly, many workers in developing countries
are unable to follow the SOPs during the application of pesticides, and they do not even know
how to utilize proper methods in pest control, compared with developed countries, where there is
proper education about how to control pests in cotton (Midega et al., 2012).
In Pakistan, cultivation of cotton has relied chiefly on synthetic chemicals with farmers heavily
dependent upon the synthetic pesticides for years; finally, it has intensified the tragic situation
(Iqbal et al., 1997, Jabbar and Mallick, 1994, Tariq et al., 2007). To protect production from
insect pests and pathogens and to boost agricultural productivity in terms of both magnitude and
the value of the produce, farmers should exploit proper use of chemicals globally because their
dependence on toxic chemicals is a threat to humans as well (Damalas, 2009, Damalas and
Eleftherohorinos, 2011, Iqbal et al., 1997, Tariq et al., 2007). Consequently, it is a dire need to
educate the public properly about cotton crops and related issues, such as insect pests and
pathogen control. In addition, farmers must continue to seek new practices and methodologies
for the control of these disastrous pests that can incur enormous costs to the product and that
have always been a challenge for farmers to obtain good produce in terms of quantity and
quality.
It has been noted that there are many hurdles if we want to apply such measures and approaches
for farmers; furthermore, inadequate information and knowledge about the technology constitute
another potent obstacle to adopting the technology (Damalas et al., 2006a, Hashemi and
Damalas, 2011, Hashemi et al., 2012). Programmes were found to have failed due to a lack of
adequate knowledge of farmers about pesticide use. However, requirements to understand
farmers' perception and knowledge should be recognized that could be served for better
adaptation of technology regarding integrated pest management (Hashemi and Damalas, 2011).
Hence, it is believed that farmers' socioeconomic situations and their perceptions of and
knowledge about the current status of insect pest menace is of great importance for establishing
pest management techniques. Identification of farmers' prerequisites for information and finding
the proper way to afford them are continuous trials. Different farmers' surveys are always very
important and helpful because they are useful for identifying the problem and its solution, testing
a research hypothesis, establishing new strategies, and assessing the efficiency of developments
and new interventions. For these purposes, the objective of this study is to identify potential
points for interventions in the improvement of pest control strategies for cotton pests, based on
the needs of small-scale farmers in the province of Punjab. The area under cotton crops per
1000 ha and area yield in kilograms per hectare of Pakistan are shown in Fig. 5, Fig. 6,
respectively.
Fig. 5. Area under cotton crops, 1948–2015.

Fig. 6. Yield of cotton crop in kg/ha, 1948–2015.
2.4. Maize
Inorganic fertilizers play an important role in producing high yields worldwide, and nitrogen
fertilizer (N) is applied in bulk quantities because it is required in large proportions during the
plant life cycle. Nitrogen application through chemical fertilizers is the main and major source of
N input in the crop cultivation system worldwide. According to estimations, 50 percent of the
human population currently depends on N fertilizer for food production, while 60 percent of
nitrogen is utilized in producing three major cereal crops: rice, maize and wheat (Ladha et al.,
2005). Unfortunately, it is also evident that applied nitrogen fertilizer is not efficiently utilized by
plants and is lost through volatilization and leaching, causing serious threats to water and
terrestrial environments, while recovery of this nitrogen only accounts for 50 percent of applied
nitrogen, and in cereals, nitrogen recovery accounts for only 40 percent globally (Fageria and
Baligar, 2005, Ruan and Johnson, 1999, Ruan et al., 2002). Fageria and Baligar (2005) reported
that low recovery of nitrogen fertilizer was due to its volatile properties, which are associated
with leaching, denitrification and soil erosion. Additionally, the dynamic nature of nitrogen, its
mobility in plants, and its transformation processes in soil make it an element that is not
efficiently utilized. Furthermore, Ruan and Johnson (1999) estimated that 67 percent of total
applied nitrogen was lost, worth $15.9 billion annually, and even only a 1 percent increase in
nitrogen recovery could result in global savings of $234 million (Glass, 2003). Therefore,
nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of applied nitrogen fertilizer is a real concern to researchers
engaged in N cycling and transformation. To improve nitrogen efficiency in crop production, N
management strategies should consider improved fertilizer efficiencies, along with soil and crop
management practices. Among these management practices, adequate rates and appropriate uses
of fertilizer and the timing of fertilizer application during the crop growth cycle play important
roles (Abbasi et al., 2012, Fageria et al., 2006). Such strategies not only boost yield but also
reduce the costs of production and environmental hazards.
Mineral nutrition plays an important role in crop production; among plant nutrients, nitrogen is
of great importance to crop productivity (Ahmad, 1998, Ahmad, 2000, Zapata and Cleenput,
1986), and nitrogen deficiency is one of the potential reasons for limited yield of cereals
(McDonald, 1989, Shah et al., 2003). Continuous cereal cropping systems cause nitrogen
deficiency through the decomposition of inorganic fertilizer, and this deficiency should be
overcome through supplementation from other sources (Herridge and Doyle, 1988, McDonald,
1992, Strong et al., 1986).
Adequate nitrogen fertilizer is applied as a chemical fertilizer in most developed countries.

However, in developing countries such as Pakistan, it is not possible due to the high price of
fertilizer, low farm incomes and lesser availability of credit facilities to farmers; hence, yield is
hampered due to these factors. As a consequence, either farmers use the available organic
sources, or the crop remains unfertilized due to limited sources (Herridge et al., 1995). In
contrast to developed countries, farmers in developing countries, especially in Pakistan, are
indispensably inclined towards using commercial fertilizer to satisfy the required level of plant
mineral nutrition. Over the last few years, fertilizer prices in most developing countries have
reached unprecedented highs, whilst supply has been limited when sowing time has approached
(Shah et al., 1995), resulting in failure to achieve target yields and national production potentials.
In continuous cereal cropping systems, there must be the inclusion of a legume crop to overcome
nitrogen deficiency, and these crops can play a vital role in maintaining soil fertility, as well as
sustaining crop production. Leguminous crops have the ability to transform atmospheric nitrogen
into organic nitrogen through their modulated roots; hence, they have proved to be a valuable
source of organic N (Giller, 2001, Munyinda et al., 1988, Peoples and Craswell, 1992).
Increased interest has been shown by farmers and researchers in crop rotation and management
of crop residues as valuable management tools. Research studies have clearly revealed that the
appropriate addition of organic materials is most important for maintaining tilth, soil fertility,
and agricultural productivity and for controlling wind and water erosion by preventing nutrient
losses due to run-off and leaching (Bukert et al., 2000, Lal, 1980, Maurya, 1981). Despite these
advantages, farmers prefer to remove crop stubbles from the field and use them as fuel and
fodder for their livestock or as building materials. In contrast to sustainable farming system,
farmers use these stubbles for mulching and to improve the soil's physical and chemical
properties and, hence, to increase soil organic matter. Soil organic matter plays a vital role in
replenishing the soil's chemical and physical properties, and it is necessary to include legumes in
crop rotation and to retain crop residues. The area under maize crops per 1000 ha and the area
yield in kilograms per hectare in Pakistan are shown in Fig. 7, Fig. 8, respectively.
Fig. 7. Area under maize crops, 1948–2015.
Fig. 8. Yield of maize crops in kg/ha, 1948–2015.
2.5. Sugarcane
Sugarcane is widely grown in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world, with high
economic importance. According to an estimation in 2014, sugarcane was planted on an area of
27 million hectares in more than 100 countries worldwide (FAOSTAT, 2015). Globally, Brazil
ranked first in terms of sugarcane production, with 39 percent of total world sugarcane
production, and India ranked second with 19 percent overall, followed in order by China,
Thailand and Pakistan with production rates of 7, 5 and 4 percent, respectively (FAOSTAT,
2015). So far, in the sugar industry, sugar is usually utilized for its sucrose content, which is
further used in the industry as a sweetener, and the remaining biomass residue (bagasse) after
extraction of sucrose is consumed as a fuel to provide steam and electricity to run sugar mills.
However, there has been increasing awareness about its co-products, such as cane trash,
molasses, bagasse and filter cake, which are today used in many industries, and many refined
products, e.g., bioethanol and electricity, as well as chemicals, including a variety of polymers
(Dias et al., 2013).
India has secured its position as the largest producer, consumer and trader of sugarcane products.
Its production has been paid great attention by society and government due to its abundance.
Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) is believed to be the most important traditional and
commercial crop of industrial importance worldwide due to its strategic and commercial
application in almost all industries. The importance of the sugarcane industry is increased in
recent years due to its economic impact on sustainable energy production. Sugarcane industry
provides raw material for the second agro-based industry after textiles, and it is a base for all
major sweeteners produced in the country. Furthermore, unprocessed sugarcane is consumed as a
human food and animal feed in Brazil, India and Cuba, and these countries are the world's
leading sugarcane producers, constituting more half of the total sugarcane production in the
world (Girei and Giroh, 2012).
In rural areas, sugarcane cultivation remains as an important segment of socioeconomic

development because it produces higher incomes and provides employment opportunities to
more than half a million people globally. Sugarcane production and prediction both have direct
and indirect impacts on national and international economies, and sugarcane plays a vital role in
the management of food (Hayes and Decker, 1996). Assessment of its reduced production, which
is caused by natural disasters, such as insect-pest infestation or droughts, could be critical for
those countries where the economy is completely dependent on sugarcane production. Similarly,
early detection and management of problems associated with crop harvest can help to boost the
yield and subsequent profits.
Early predictions about crop yield can be useful globally and regionally, offering important
information for policy makers. This information can also help farmers at the field level to make
quick decisions about upcoming circumstances, for instance, the choice of alternative crops or
whether to stop a crop from growing further at all or in an early stage. Barnett and Thompson
(1982) used some meteorological data based on precipitation and temperature to forecast wheat
yield. Similarly, Parthasarathy et al. (1988) developed some equations to forecast yield using
regression models. At the same time, Deressa et al. (2005) applied a Richardian cross-section
using a regression model and proved that climate change has serious connections with sugarcane
productivity. In that study, climatic variables such as minimum and maximum temperature were
not considered. In another study, it was reported that high fertilizer application had greater
impacts on climatic variation and environmental damage (Ranuzzi and Srivastava, 2012). In
precision agriculture, principles of artificial intelligence and soft computing techniques have
been utilized for spatial analysis and crop management (Drummond et al., 2003, Huang et al.,
2010); in particular, ANN analysis has been utilized in precision agriculture to compute data
relative to spatial analysis and crop management (Drummond et al., 2003, Irmak et al., 2006).
In another study, the yield of sugarcane alone and in rotation with potatoes (Solanum tuberosum
cv. Kufri Bahar) was increased, and net income was also significant in intercropping systems
(Imam et al., 1990). Control of insects and pests, such as diseases, insects and weeds, in
sugarcane rotation has also been studied (Berry et al., 2009, Chen et al., 2011, Li et al., 2009);
however, there has thus far been a lack of information assessing the interspecific competition in
sugarcane intercropping system. One important factor in intercropping systems is competition,
which plays a direct role in determining the yield of crops (Caballero et al., 1995, Li et al., 2011).
Vandermeer (1990) confirmed that when intra-species competition in an intercropping system is
greater than inter-species competition, an increase in yield could be seen in these cropping
systems.
Several major advantages can be achieved in cereal-legume intercropping systems that increase
yield and land use efficiency (Ghosh, 2004), as well as efficiency in the utilization of natural
resources, such as water, light and nutrients (Harris et al., 1987, Xu et al., 2008). It can also add
up in controlling insect pests and diseases (Chen et al., 2011). Furthermore, cereal-legume
intercropping systems have emerged as popular cropping systems worldwide (Eskanddari, 2012,
Jensen, 1996). The area under cotton crops per 1000 ha and the area yield in kilograms per
hectare in Pakistan are shown in Fig. 9, Fig. 10, respectively.
Fig. 9. Area under sugarcane crops, 1948–2015.

Fig. 10. Yield of sugarcane crop in kg/ha, 1948–2015.
3. Materials and methods
To examine the relationship between the agricultural GDP and the outputs of major crops, annual
time series data from 1950 to 2015 were used. The data were collected from the Economic
Survey of Pakistan (various statistical supplements), Pakistan Statistical Year Books,
Government Publications and the Federal Bureau of Statistics. The variables used in this study
are agricultural GSP in millions of rupees, output of cotton in thousands of tonnes, output of
maize in thousands of tonnes, output of rice in thousands of tonnes, output of sugarcane in
thousands of tonnes and output of wheat in thousands of tonnes.
3.1. Model specification
To analyse the relationship between the agricultural GDP and the outputs of major crops, the
following model estimated is specified as:
(1)
where
Ln (AGRGDP) = Agricultural Gross Domestic Product per year in (million rupees)
Ln (OPCOTTON) = Output of Cotton in (000, tones)
Ln (OPMAIZE) = Output of Maize in (000, tones)
Ln (OPRICE) = Output of Rice in (000, tones)

Ln (OPSUG) = Output of Sugarcane in (000, tones)
Ln (OPWHEAT) = Output of Wheat in (000, tones)
μ = error term
The present study is based on time series over the period of 1950–2015. The ADF unit root test
was applied to assess the stationarity of the variables; non-stationarity could lead to spurious
regression results. Such a spurious association between variables might occur in time series data
that exhibit non-stationarity.
3.2. Ordinary least square method
The results of this method indicate the predictive ability of the model, as well as the relative
statistics of the variables in the short run. To assess the long-run relationship between dependent
and independent variables, Johansen's co-integration test is used.
4. Results and discussion

4.1. Results of unit root test
This study used the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test to assess the stationarity of
each variable. The estimated results of the ADF test presented in Table 1 show that none of
variables of the attained stationarity at their level form, while all of the variables became
stationary after taking the first difference I(1), as indicated by the values of the ADF Statistics
test being greater than the critical values at the 5 percent significance level.
Table 1. Results of ADF test.
Variables ADF Statistic Critical value Probability Level of significance Order of integration
AGRGDP −8.345884 −2.907660 0.0000 5 percent 1(1)
OPCOTTON −12.24537 −2.907660 0.0000 5 percent 1(1)
OPMAIZE −5.219132 −3.485218 0.0003 5 percent 1(1)
OPRICE −7.720744 −3.482763 0.0000 5 percent 1(1)
OPSUG −11.16237 −2.908420 0.0000 5 percent 1(1)
OPWHEAT −8.621440 −2.908420 0.0000 5 percent
Source: Author's own calculation using Eviews 9.

4.2. Results of co-integration testing
For co-integration examination based on the method of Johansen, two tests are used: trace
statistics and maximum eigenvalues. The presence of co-integration indicates that agricultural
gross domestic product, output of wheat, output of rice, output of maize, output of sugarcane and
output of cotton have a long-run equilibrium relationship. The estimated results of Johansen's co-
integration tests are presented in Table 2, Table 3. The values of trace statistics (110.1580) and
the values of the max-eigenstatistic (49.53911), which are greater than their critical values
(95.75366), (40.07757), indicate that there exists a long-term relationship amongst the dependent
variable and five independent variables, which in turn indicates rejection of the null hypothesis
of no co-integration. In both tests, trace statistics and max-eigenstatistics reveal 1 co-integrating
equation at the 5 percent level.
Table 2. Johansen co-integration test using trace statistics.
Lags interval: 1 to 1
Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 5 Percent critical value Prob** Hypothesized no. of CE(s)
0.538858 110.1580 95.75366 0.0033 Nonea
0.380200 60.61891 69.81889 0.1167 At most 1
0.192242 30.00393 47.85613 0.8451 At most 2
0.171079 16.34043 29.79707 0.5468 At most 3
0.065258 4.332065 15.49471 0.8242 At most 4
0.000203 0.013018 3.841466 0.9090 At most 5
** Values are accurate.
Trace test indicates 1 co-integrating equation at the 0.05 level.
Denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level.
Source: Authors' own calculation using Eviews 9.
Table 3. Johansen co-integration test using max-eigen statistic.

Eigenvalue Max-eigen statistic 5 percent critical value Prob** Hypothesized no. of CE(s)
0.538858 49.53911 40.07757 0.0033 Nonea
0.380200 30.61498 33.87687 0.1167 At most 1
0.192242 13.66351 27.58434 0.8451 At most 2
0.171079 12.00836 21.13162 0.5468 At most 3
0.065258 4.319047 14.26460 0.8242 At most 4
0.000203 0.013018 3.841466 0.9090 At most 5
** Values are accurate.
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 co-integrating equation at the 0.05 level.
Denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level.
Source: Authors' own calculation using Eviews 9.
4.3. Results of regression
To examine the relationship between the output of major crops and agricultural GDP in Pakistan,
the Ordinary Least Square method was employed. The results of regression analysis are reported
in Table 4. From the OLS regression result, the high value of R2 was 0.931 or 93.1 percent, and
the adjusted-R2 was 0.925 or 92.5 percent. This finding indicates that approximately 93 percent
of the total change in agricultural GDP is explained by five explanatory independent variables.
The computed value of the F-statistic is 161.9 with a probability value of 0.000000, which shows
that the overall fitness of the model is significant.
Table 4. Regression analysis.
Dependent variable: ln(AGRGDP)
Method: least squares
Sample: 1950 2015 Included observations: 66
Explanatory variables Coefficient Std. error t-Statistic Prob.

Dependent variable: ln(AGRGDP)
Method: least squares
Sample: 1950 2015 Included observations: 66
Explanatory variables Coefficient Std. error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1.858653 1.070582 1.736115 0.0877
Ln (OPCOTTON) 1.066188 0.118939 8.964161 0.0000
Ln (OPMAIZE) 0.505505 0.132473 3.815914 0.0003
Ln (OPRICE) 0.210809 0.400113 0.526873 0.6002
Ln (OPSUG) −0.441224 0.270077 −1.633696 0.1076
Ln (OPWHEAT) 0.095305 0.358341 0.265963 0.7912
R-squared 0.931007 Adjusted R-squared 0.925258
F-statistic 161.9316 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Durbin–Watson stat 1.133231
The results of regression analysis revealed that the coefficient of output of cotton was highly
significant at both the 1 percent and 5 percent of significance levels, showing that there was a
strong and positive relationship between agricultural GDP and the output of cotton. This finding
indicates that a 1 percent increase in the output of cotton increased agricultural GDP by 1.06
percent. The results further showed that the coefficient of output of maize was also highly
significant at both 1 percent and 5 percent significance levels, indicating that there is a strong
and positive relationship between the output of maize and agricultural GDP. This finding
suggests that a 1 percent increase in the output of maize leads to an increase in agricultural GDP
of 0.50 percent. According to Anyanwu et al. (2010), a positive and significant relationship was
found between the output of maize and agricultural GDP, whereas the output of rice was
statistically insignificant, with a coefficient of 0.210809, indicating that a 1 percent increase in
the output of rice would lead to an increase in agricultural GDP of almost 0.21 percent, and the
output of wheat was statistically insignificant, with a coefficient of 0.095305, indicating that a 1
percent increase in the output of wheat results in an agricultural GDP increase of 0.09 percent.
Currently, the agriculture sector is facing several problems, such as shortages of irrigation,
underdeveloped infrastructure facilities, poor agricultural marketing, lack of funding and the
rising prices of major agricultural inputs (Chandio et al., 2016). Furthermore, the results showed
that there is a negative relationship between the output of sugarcane and agricultural GDP. This
result was not expected. The reasons for this negative relationship probably included climate
conditions and the ups and down of support prices.
5. Conclusion and recommendations
This study investigated the relationship of agricultural GDP with the outputs of major crops,
including wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane and cotton, in Pakistan over the period of 1950–2015.
Time series data were collected from Economic Survey of Pakistan (various publications). The
ADF unit root test, Johansen's co-integration test and the ordinary least square method were
applied to analyse the data. The results of co-integration revealed that there exists a long-term
relationship between the outputs of major crops and agricultural GDP of Pakistan. The results of
regression analysis also showed that the output of cotton, the output of maize, the output of
wheat, and the output of rice have positive relationships with agricultural GDP of Pakistan, while
the output of sugarcane has a negative and non-significant relationship with the agricultural GDP
of Pakistan. Therefore, this study recommends that the government of Pakistan should launch
new funding schemes for the development of the agricultural sector.
Is Pakistan running out of fresh water?

Zofeen T. EbrahimUpdated Mar 30, 2018 05:39pm
The sight of water flowing from taps may soon be a luxury, with people having to queue up at
tankers for just a bucket load of water for their daily needs. Meanwhile, affluent neighbourhoods
in gated communities may install desalination plants paid for (by volume) by wealthy
homeowners.
If we are to try and bring some order to this chaotic picture of near future, the starting point for
Dr Arif Anwar, who heads the non-profit research organisation International Water Management
Institute (IWMI), will be to ensure that cities are water secure.
This is because the day-to-day injustice from inadequate water supply hits people with
precarious livelihoods the most. In fact, for several years now, the chaotic picture of the future is
already a reality in scores of informal settlements in the port city of Karachi.
Since they first migrated to the metropolis from their village in Mian Channu, a small town in
southern Punjab, and settled in a two-room quarter in Shirin Jinnah Colony, almost a decade ago,
Mohammad Riaz, his wife, and their five kids have been rationing water.
“Back in the village there was always plenty of water so it came as a shock for all of us that our
father had to buy water for us,” says Aasia, second in line among Riaz’s children. She is now
married with a year-old son but lives with her parents, along with her husband, while her older
sister Rashda lives in the quarter next to her father’s with her husband, and two children.
All three of Riaz’s daughters and his wife work as maids in the nearby residential area of Clifton,
while one son works in a restaurant and the other son with disabilities stays home.
Riaz and his two sons-in-law take turns every month to buy a tanker of 2,000 liters of sweet
water for PKR 5,500, which is just enough for eight adults and three kids. A large chunk of
Riaz’s family earning goes into buying water and even then, Aasia complains, “The water smells
and has insects crawling in it even after passing it through thin muslin.”
File photo shows a water tanker, being refilled at a hydrant. — Faisal
“We use a bucket each to bathe while my mother, father, and my sister’s son shower where they
work. They also fill their flasks from the homes they work in to save money and after the
evening meal, we never wash dirty dishes under running water,” explains Rashda. They use the
underground water which is salty to wash their clothes, although the final rinse is done with the
tanker water. This is their way of making their tanker water last till the very last drop.
For drinking, they buy additional gallons of unbranded filtered water from a nearby shop. “A 25-
liter barrel costs PKR 70 and lasts two days in the really hot weather,” she points out.
This strict system of rationing water is not peculiar to Riaz’s home. Many families across
informal settlements in Karachi, where 60 per cent of the city’s population resides, have come up
with their own ways of conserving water.
And because so much energy and money is spent on ensuring that they have enough water for
the day, it has become increasingly difficult to escape from the poverty spiral. “If we were not
spending so much on water, I’d be able to save up enough to build a home for myself,” says
Aasia.
People collect water from a tank in Orangi Town, Sector 11, through a leak in its wall. —Naushad
Alam/File
Most Karachiites blame the Karachi Water and Sanitation Board (KWSB), the organisation
responsible for production, transmission, and distribution of the city’s potable water, as well as
managing the sewerage system, for the disrupted supply.
In turn, the board blames the runaway population, and aging and leaky pipelines for which it has
no resources to repair, and water thieves for the shortage. The Supreme Court of Pakistan often
jumps in by rapping at the government’s knuckles, being public trustee, to do its job of
‘provision of potable water’ but the woes of the people continue.
Karachi, according to the KWSB, needs 1,100 million gallons per day (mgd) for its galloping
population of 15 million, but it only gets supplied with 450 to 480 mgd. To meet the shortfall of
over 50 per cent, there are groups running illegal hydrants which supply water to residents,
making huge profits out of this unmet need.
In the years to come, predicts Anwar, ‘anarchy’ will increase and a ‘mafia’ more insidious than
the tanker owners will prevail to further exploit the situation. “I would love to paint a rosy
picture of Karachi with beautiful waterways, a clean beach, and fountains,” he says, “but we
need to change course drastically for that to happen.”
The situation is no better in rural Sindh where water often does not reach the land of small
farmers at the tail-end of canals for them to be able to cultivate and what does reach them is
seawater rendering their arable land unproductive. Those at the head reaches of the canals are
often more powerful and enjoy political clout with the result that they are able to exert influence
with the irrigation department, flout laws, and divert more water towards their land.
The writing on the wall
There are many who think any talk of water scarcity and what it may portend for our future is
nothing but hogwash. They believe that with three snowcapped mountain ranges — the
Himalayas, Hindu Kush and Karakoram — surrounding Pakistan, spanning 11,780 square
kilometers with 7,259 glaciers (containing 2,066 cubic kilometers of ice), the country’s water
source is infinite. It is these glaciers that feed the mighty Indus and its 1.12 million square
kilometers basin, 47 per cent of which is in Pakistan and 39 per cent, 8 per cent and 6 per cent in
India, China and Afghanistan, respectively.
But the signs of water stress are everywhere in Pakistan — in the form of water scarcity,
resource depletion, and even contamination. The situation is further compounded by uncertainty
introduced by climate change and the prediction by the Pakistan Meteorological Department
(PMD) that the country will become water scarce by 2025. With a per person annual availability
of water at 1,017 cubic meters, Pakistan is fast closing in at 1,000 cubic meters, which indicates
the country is water scarce. Although, the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources
(PCRWR), a government agency that carries out water research, had asserted that the country
crossed the ‘water scarcity line’ way back in 2005 after having crossed the ‘water stress line’ in
1990.
Children fill water at the filtration plant in Karachi. — File photo by Samira Shackle
“Among water professionals in Pakistan, when we say water is getting scarce, we are typically
referring to the Falkenmark Water Stress Indicator – one of the more commonly used measures
to calculate the volume of renewable water available per capita,” explains Dr Anwar, adding that
the decrease in water availability in Pakistan is because of a rise in population, and not because
the volume has decreased.
The recent census has put the country’s population at 207.7 million, which will cross the 395
millionth mark, on its 100th anniversary in 2047, if the population continues to run amok at the
same rate. With this fast-rising population, the demand for water will increase exponentially.
According to a 2015 IMF report, the demand for water is on the rise and is projected to reach 274
million acre-feet (MAF) by 2025, while supply is expected to remain stagnant at 191 MAF,
resulting in a demand-supply gap of approximately 83 MAF.
Unchecked abstraction of groundwater
In Karachi, what little water is supplied to residents is surface water; while in Lahore
groundwater is supplied to the residents. With nearly 50 to 55 million acre feet (MAF) pumped
out, and only 40 to 45 MAF recharged, the aquifer is getting drained faster than it can be
replenished. A NASA-led study has confirmed this. The researchers studied 37 of the largest
aquifers of the world between 2003 and 2013, and found the Indus Basin aquifer the second-most
overstressed, and being depleted without getting recharged. It is also on the World Resource
Institute’s water stress index.
Lahore’s population of over 11 million is supplied with 1.29 MAF daily of groundwater
extracted through hand pumps, motor pumps, and tubewells. In 1960, there were about 20,000
tubewells in the Punjab. Today, water experts say there are over a million!
According to WWF-Pakistan, the depletion of groundwater in Lahore has reached critical levels
with the rate of about 2.5 to 3.0 feet per year. The water table, in the central part of the city, has
receded below 130 feet, and in the Gulberg area, it has fallen below 147 feet approximately. It is
projected to recede below 230 feet in most areas by 2025 if groundwater is not conserved and the
present trend of extraction continues.
This is because anyone can install a tubewell of any capacity, at any depth, and extract any
amount of water. But this is soon to be changed. In a bid to stem unbridled use of this precious
resource and build resilience and adaptation, the provincial government’s Irrigation Department
has drafted the ‘Punjab Groundwater Protection, Regulation, and Development Act (2017)’, and
is in the process of consulting various stakeholders. Once in place, commercial and industrial
enterprises will have to seek permission to extract groundwater. As for regulating and managing
municipal water, the Punjab Municipal Water Act was introduced in 2014 but remains
unimplemented.
The problem isn’t just about the decreasing quantity of groundwater, but also that the resource
has been contaminated by industrial and municipal effluent.
Last year, a research published in Science Advances analyzing data from nearly 1,200
groundwater samples from across Pakistan stated that up to 60 million people were at risk from
the deadly chemical arsenic. The World Health Organisation has established a level of 10
micrograms per liter as the permissible concentration in drinking water, but Pakistan government
says that 50 micrograms per liter is acceptable. The study said “very high concentrations, above
200 micrograms/liter, are found mainly in the south” and warned that regular consumption of
water containing high concentrations of arsenic may lead to skin disorders, lung cancer, and
cardiovascular diseases.
Earlier this year, the Punjab government launched a crackdown in all 36 districts and destroyed
standing crops on thousands of acres that had been watered with untreated industrial effluent and
sewage. In the future, the farmers will only be allowed non-edible crops like bamboos, flowers,
and indoor plants.
Irrigation uses up precious water, gives little in return
Much of the demand for water is driven by agriculture, points out Dr Khalid Mohtadullah, an
expert in water resources policy and senior advisor to the International Center for Integrated
Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a regional intergovernmental learning and knowledge
sharing center.
“About 95 per cent fresh water is utilised for agriculture and still the country is among those with
the lowest productivity,” he contends. Despite water intensive irrigation, Pakistan’s per acre
yield is quite low. In fact, the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) states that the
country has the lowest productivity per unit of water i.e. 0.13kg/m3 in the region, compared to
India at 0.39kg/m3 and China at 0.82kg/m3.
Looking back, Anwar notes that Pakistan started on a ‘trajectory (from its colonial past) of
expanding the irrigated area, but then, over time, when it should have turned to getting more out
of the area, it continued to irrigate more and more land’. He gives the example of the newest
Kachhi canal project which, he says, is about irrigating yet more land.
“The challenge for the state is to achieve savings in agriculture water use to meet the rising water
demand in other social and economic sectors,” says Mohtadullah. “But it’s not easy because it
will require improved water governance and management and investment in scientific
knowledge, all of which will require commitment and resources,” he says.
Additionally, says Anwar of IWMI, there are countries that have been able to have a higher gross
domestic product (GDP) and better quality of life indicators than Pakistan with less quantity of
water, demonstrating that water scarcity measured by the Falkenmark Water Stress Indicator
does not necessarily lead to a diminished quality of life.
They have been able to do this by moving away from an agricultural economy heavily reliant on
irrigation. While there are many such countries in the Middle East, Anwar compares Pakistan to
Egypt. “Egypt’s available quota of water per capita has dropped to 663 m3 per year, a decline of
more than 60 per cent in 43 years. Yet the GDP per capita of Egypt was $3,685 in 2016, while
Pakistan’s was $1,441, and agriculture only contributes 10 per cent to Egypt’s economy,” he
says.
Israel is bang in the middle of a desert, but by using the right technology, economic resources,
and political determination, it has been able to reuse effluent to irrigate about 40 per cent of its
land. Maybe we can learn from their Shafdan Wastewater Treatment Facility. Located south of
Tel Aviv, it is Israel’s largest wastewater treatment and reuse facility. It supplies approximately
140,000,000 m3 per year of reclaimed water to the Negev Desert in the south of Israel for
agricultural use on 50,000 acres of irrigated land.
Putting a price on water
“I believe that beyond the human rights to water and water for domestic consumption,
environment, cultural, and municipal uses, all other uses should be billed and paid for, especially
in agriculture which uses up to 97 per cent of all surface water and a similar proportion of
groundwater,” says Pakistan’s foremost water expert, Simi Kamal.
But Anwar disagrees, saying that water has to be metered in cities everywhere ‘irrespective of
whether it comes from the municipality or from a private bore hole’. To this, adds Ahmad Rafay
Alam, an environment lawyer and activist, “And while considering water charges, agriculture
tubewell tariffs need also be reconsidered and revised to be able to cover operation and
maintenance of the infrastructure used by the Irrigation Department”.
Kamal points out that when everyone who uses water pays for it, the ‘consumption will go down,
people will waste less, cropping patterns will change and the market will adjust’.
Even history shows, she says, that macroeconomic measures by states and global financial
institutions, as well as citizen’s action and behavior at the lowest levels can change economic
realities. She is also of the opinion that growing crops like ‘water-heavy sugarcane’ may be
discontinued as sugar can be bought more cheaply from the open market.
Every drop stored is a drop saved
Poor management of existing water resources, compounded by changing precipitation patterns

due to global warming and not having invested in storages has made Pakistan all the more
susceptible to extreme floods, long spells of drought, and increasing natural disasters.
To Mohtadullah, a lot of the problems around water scarcity can be resolved if Pakistan invests
in water savings by building storages at all levels. Refusing to use the word ‘dam’, it being
highly sensitive and also ‘not quite conveying the full sense of storage’, he points out, “We are
storing less than eight per cent of the available surface water flows. After meeting the
environmental flow requirements of the river system we still permit the rest of the surplus flow
to go to the sea unutilised, when we should be storing around 40 per cent of it to have a
sustainable irrigation system. Given the seriously uneven water availability in our rivers during
the year, the lack of adequate storage at all levels makes it almost impossible to manage our
water resources satisfactorily.”
And in case the lower riparian plays the ‘dying delta’ card, when 75 to 80 per cent of water is
available in just three months of the year and only a trickle in the remaining nine months,
Mohtadullah rushes to add, ‘The principle that every drop stored is a drop saved’ will help keep
the delta alive and stop sea water intrusion. The stored water can always be released in a
consistent manner around the year or as required according to sound principles of equity and
good water management.”
Since 1976, when Pakistan built the Tarbela dam (on the Indus river) no new dam has been
constructed. Today, Mangla (located on Jhelum river and constructed between 1961-67) and
Tarbela, the two major reservoirs in the Indus basin store only 14 MAF of the 145 MAF that
flows through Pakistan annually, and that too only for 30 days. The international standard is 120
days.
Anwar, however, says that while more infrastructure was always popular and is probably
necessary too, Pakistan should manage the water it has and make the existing infrastructure
better. State institutions have limited capacity to manage the water sector, and repeated attempts
and investments to fix them have failed. “We have to get much more creative,” he says, favoring
involvement of the private sector to manage water. “De-bundling services and allowing non-state
sectors to manage it would be a good start to address the institutional issues,” he concludes.
Water crisis in Pakistan

 July 28, 2016
1886
Mehraj Altaf
Water crisis is one of the biggest issues of Pakistan. Pakistan is at the 17th position in the list of
the countries, which are facing water crisis. Some people do not have water to drink and they are
compelled to drink unsafe water, which is full of darts. These small dangerous bacteria make the
people sick and it is more painful to say that if some people in Pakistan have a small amount of
water they start wasting it; they do not bother to save water for the poor.
In Pakistan, people are dependent upon rains and monsoon downpours when water flows down
the rivers and also goes down the land surface to raise the underground water level utilised for
irrigation and drinking purposes. According to Pakistan Water Partner(PWP), the total available
surface water is about 153 million MAF and the total ground water reserves are approximately
24 MAF, of which a substantial part is pumped out without allowing for a natural research. The
population of Pakistan will be doubled by the year 2025 and hence the consumption of the
underground water will also add to the problem further aggravated by the factors of the global
warming and the climate change.
Today in the modern world Pakistan is the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world. 68
MAF is potentially usable water. If the canal system is adequately repaired and maintained,
sweet water availability of approximately 144 MAF and 97% is already being used in agriculture
and agricultural owners demands for more and more water to grow sugar cane and rice crops.
In the monsoon season in 8% plants will be cultivated but that is without irrigation. Pakistan is
expected to face shortage of 31 million acre feet MAF of water by 2025 which would pose a
grave threat to Pakistan’s economy and stability. Indian plan to build a dam on Wulur lake would
affect the flow of water in Pakistan. According to the media, India has ventured upon an
ambitious plan worth $120 billion to divert water of the Pakistani rivers. The government should
start the construction of dams and provide secure water for irrigation and domestic use.
Water crisis in Pakistan

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Water is increasingly essential for the sustenance of human life; people’s livelihoods, food
security and socio-economic stability as well. In addition, Pakistan is absolutely dependent on
water resources because they fuel agriculture. Likewise, economic growth and advancement of
agriculture and economy truly lies in water availability. But the depressing fact is that Pakistan is
facing severe water shortage at present. Whereas, water availability is emerging as a matter of
serious concern in Pakistan. There is not only an acute drinking water scarcity but also the
irrigation water crisis which in turn, are adversely affecting the agriculture sector and the
livelihood of the common people. Resultantly, the socio-economic development and growth of a
country has been hampered to great extent. There are multiple reasons behind this extreme water
shortage including lack of water reservoirs and storage dams, wastage of water and poor water
resource management an preservation policies. On the other hand, climate change is also one of
the root causes of water shortage in Pakistan which has caused drought like situation in rural and
remote areas.
READ MORE: SC seeks legislation against dual nationality holder govt employees
Keeping in view large chunk of Pakistan’s population have no access to safe and clean drinking
water. Besides, according to the news report ‘70 percent water in Pakistan is not suitable for
human consumption’. There is no denying the fact that Pakistan is the water stressed country at
the stage but if the visible measures are not taken in this very direction, resultanly, Pakistan will
be water scarce country from water stressed by 2025(policy makers predict).
Therefore, water shortage is truly a big challenge for Pakistan which needs to be paid due
attention on urgent basis. Furthermore, there is the dire need to formulate an effective water
resource management agenda, a uniform water distribution policy and an efficient plan for the
prevention of water wastage. Most importantly, the government should take concerted efforts for
building water reservoirs and storage dams in the country so that the real issue can be addressed
Water crisis- a daunting challenge for

Pakistan
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Water crisis is emerging one of the biggest challenges for Pakistan now a days. Pakistan’s water
resources are running dry at alarming rate. Current extreme water shortage warnings have
attracted nation’s attention. The annual water availability that was nearly 1,300 cubic metres per
capita, has fallen to 1000 cubic meters leaving Pakistan to the category of highly water stressed
nations in the globe. The matter of serious concern is that IMF has also placed Pakistan on third
position in the context of water crisis . In addition, study suggests that currently, Pakistan is
water stressed country but if the suitable action is not undertaken for preserving and saving
water, it will turn water scarce by 2025. Undeniably, these prospects and predictions could
become the bitter truth very soon if government doesn’t put water management policy at top of
its agendas and if sustainable and economical use of water doesn’t become top of our priorities.
READ MORE: Pakistan in no rush to strike deal with IMF: Asad Umar
There is no denying the fact that our country’s water crisis has exacerbated these days than
before. Pakistan is witnessing looming water crisis , on the one hand, there is extreme irrigation
water scarcity due to which the productivity and fertilization of agriculture and food security of
motherland are being badly affected. It is believed that Pakistan is one of the major food
producing and land copious countries in the world. The tragic truth is that current drought- like
condition has reduced the food and agricultural yields and outputs of crops.
On the other, there is an acute drinking water scarcity which has made lives of the people
miserable. In major cities of Pakistan underground water is salty, thus not drinkable. Hence,
People walk long distances in the search of water in many parts of the country. Approximately,
more than 27 million Pakistanis lack access to potable water and almost 70pc water in the
homeland is unfit for human consumption. Therefore, common people are drinking that
contaminated water because they have no way out other than consuming harmful water.
According to Hassan Foundation, almost, 250,000 children under the age of five die every year
of waterborne disease, costing economy around $ 1.3 billions. Whereas, four-fifths of all
diseases Pakistanis suffer from, such as cholera, diarroea, typhoid and hepatitis, are caused by
contaminated and untreated water.
The major reasons for this serious water scarcity can be attributed to poor water resource
management, water wastage and lack of effective water conservation policy, low budget
allocation and dearth of reservoirs and storage dams. No doubt, Pakistan has miserably failed in
showing progressive approach towards water management. Huge chunk of water is wasted in
Pakistan and less than 0.2 percent of GDP is allocated for water and sanitation. Besides, since
1960s, new dams have not been built despite the fact that our dams can store water for 30 days
only. Likewise, bourgeoning population, rapid urbanization and growing demand of water in
agricultural and industrial sector have jointly made the water a dwindling resource. Additionally,
devastating effects of climate change are also highly responsible for drought like situation in
major Parts of the country. According to 2017 Climate Change Index, Pakistan is one of the most
affected and vulnerable countries to climate change, ranking on 7th number out of 10 climate
prrior nations of Asia. Meanwhile, erractic weather and rainfall patterns, glacial melting, global
warming and droughts have further aggravated the situation in Pakistan.
Undeniably, water is increasingly essential for the sustenance of human life; people’s
livelihoods, food security and socio-economic stability of our country as well. Whereas, Pakistan
is agricultural country. Around 42 percent workforce in rural areas work in agricultural fields.
Agriculture significantly contributes in Pakistan’s exports, GDP, per capita income and social
and economic progress. Almost 21 percent of GDP and 70 percent exports are created from it
like cotton, wheat, rice etc. Thus, it would not be an exaggeration to say that water is lifeline for
Pakistan. Without that socio-economic advancement cannot be attained.
READ MORE: Pakistan,China, Afghanistan discuss peace process
So, lets work in tandem to fix this pressing problem stabilize our country at all fronts. Water
crisis is getting worse from bad day by day. That is why immediate and special attention must be
drawn to water management on government side. The government should chalk out the best
possible plannings for building more water reservoirs and storage dams in the country as they
will go long way towards resolving this pressing problem. Furthermore, there is the dire need to
formulate an effective water resource management and conservation agenda, a uniform water
distribution policy and an efficient plan for controlling water wastage. Moreover, state must
invest in climate change mitigation and adaption strategies to save the country from its miserable
impacts. Apart from this the state need to ensure that every citizen has smooth access to clean
and drinkable water. The only way to tackle this alarming water crisis is to take urgent and
strategic action in this very direction. Otherwise, it will be too late to act when the country’s
water resources would go dry and there will be no drop to drink!
Water crisis: Why is Pakistan running dry?
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan could "run dry" by 2025 as its water shortage is reaching an alarming
level. The authorities remain negligent about the crisis that's posing a serious threat to the
country's stability, DW reports.
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan ranks third in
the world among countries facing acute water shortage. Reports by the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) and the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources
(PCRWR) also warn the authorities that the South Asian country will reach absolute water
scarcity by 2025. "No person in Pakistan, whether from the north with its more than 5,000
glaciers, or from the south with its 'hyper deserts,' will be immune to this scarcity," said Neil
Buhne, UN humanitarian coordinator for Pakistan.
Researchers predict that Pakistan is on its way to becoming the most water-stressed country in
the region by the year 2040. It is not the first time that development and research organisations
have alerted Pakistani authorities about an impending crisis, which some analysts say poses a
bigger threat to the country than terrorism says DW in its report on water issue in Pakistan.
In 2016, PCRWR reported that Pakistan touched the "water stress line" in 1990 and crossed the
"water scarcity line" in 2005. If this situation persists, Pakistan is likely to face an acute water
shortage or a drought-like situation in the near future, according to PCRWR, which is affiliated
with the South Asian country's Ministry of Science and Technology.
A water-intensive country
Pakistan has the world's fourth-highest rate of water use. Its water intensity rate — the amount of
water, in cubic meters, used per unit of GDP — is the world's highest. This suggests that no
country's economy is more water-intensive than Pakistan's.
According to the IMF, Pakistan's per capita annual water availability is 1,017 cubic metres —
perilously close to the scarcity threshold of 1,000 cubic metres. Back in 2009, Pakistan's water
availability was about 1,500 cubic metres.
The bulk of Pakistan's farmland is irrigated through a canal system, but the IMF says in a report
that canal water is vastly underpriced, recovering only a quarter of annual operating and
maintenance costs. Meanwhile, agriculture, which consumes almost all annual available surface
water, is largely untaxed.
Experts say that population growth and urbanisation are the main reasons behind the crisis. The
issue has also been exacerbated by climate change, poor water management and a lack of
political will to deal with the crisis. "Pakistan is approaching the scarcity threshold for water.
What is even more disturbing is that groundwater supplies — the last resort of water supply —
are being rapidly depleted. And worst of all is that the authorities have given no indication that
they plan to do anything about any of this," Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert at the
Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Centre, told DW in a 2015 interview.
Qazi Talhat, a secretary at the Ministry of Water Resources, told DW the situation is "scary" for
Pakistan.
Water scarcity is also triggering security conflicts in the country. Experts say the economic
impact of the water crisis is immense, and the people are fighting for resources.
Climate change
Water scarcity in Pakistan has been accompanied by rising temperatures. In May, at least 65
people died from heatstroke in the southern city of Karachi. In 2015, at least 1,200 people died
during a spate of extremely hot weather. "Heat waves and droughts in Pakistan are a result of
climate change," Mian Ahmed Naeem Salik, an environmental expert and research fellow at the
Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, told DW.
"The monsoon season has become erratic in the past few years. The winter season has shrunk
from four to two months in many parts of the country. On top of it, Pakistan cannot save
floodwater due to a scarcity of dams," Salik said. "At the time of Pakistan's birth in 1947, forests
accounted for about 5 percent of the nation's area, but they have now dropped to only 2 percent.
Pakistan must invest in building water reservoirs and plant more trees," he added.
Water politics
The Tarbela and Mangla dams, the country's two major water reservoirs, reached their "dead"
levels last week, according to media reports. The news sparked a debate on social media over the
inaction of authorities in the face of this crisis. "We have only two big reservoirs and we can
save water only for 30 days. India can store water for 190 days whereas the US can do it for 900
days," Muhammad Khalid Rana, a spokesman for the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), told
DW.
"Pakistan receives around 145 million acre feet of water every year but can only save 13.7
million acre feet. Pakistan needs 40 million acre feet of water but 29 million acre feet of our
floodwater is wasted because we have few dams. New Delhi raised this issue with international
bodies, arguing that it should be allowed to use the western rivers because Pakistan can't use
them properly," Rana said.
In 1960, the World Bank brokered the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) that gives Pakistan exclusive
rights to use the region's western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — while India has the
authority over three eastern rivers.
The Pakistani government says New Delhi is not fulfilling its responsibilities under the IWT as it
voices concerns over India's construction of new dams. New Delhi is building the Kishangaga
hydroelectric plant in the north of Bandipore in India held Jammu and Kashmir region. In May,
Islamabad approached the World Bank complaining that India violated the IWT by building the
dam on a Jhelum River basin, which it lays claim on.
Kugelman says that the Pakistani authorities need to step up efforts to overcome the water crisis,
which is partly man-made. "First of all, Pakistan's leaders and stakeholders need to take
ownership of this challenge and declare their intention to tackle it. Simply blaming previous
governments, or blaming India, for the crisis won't solve anything. Next, the government needs
to institute a major paradigm shift that promotes more judicious use of water," Kugelman
emphasized.
Wastage of water
Apart from the water storage issue, experts say that water wastage is also a big issue in the
country. Abid Suleri, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sustainable Development Policy
Institute, says the mismanagement takes place at many levels.
As the water crisis worsens in Pakistan, foreign diplomats and activists have taken to social
media, urging people to save water. "Using a bucket to save water while washing my car!
#Pakistan ranks third amongst countries facing water shortage. One major reason is excessive
use. 100 liters wasted washing a car with running tap water. Many ways to #SaveWater in our
daily life! #SaveWaterforPak," Martin Kobler, German ambassador to Pakistan, wrote on
Twitter.
In April, former PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi announced Pakistan's first National Water Policy,
promising consolidated efforts to tackle the water crisis. But experts are skeptical about the
authorities will to deal with the issue. The country will hold general elections on July 25 and
there is an interim government currently in place. Water crisis is a priority neither for the
caretaker government nor for the political parties contesting the polls.
Water crisis, Impacts and Management in Pakistan
Outline:
o Introduction
Main body:
o World Bank report
o Causes pertaining to water crises in Pakistan:
- International causes:
1. Step-mother attitude of Sir Radcliff in the boundary commission.
2. Violation of Indus Basin Treaty by India.
- National causes:
1. Lack of proper management by government
2. Unrest between provinces on sharing of water and inefficient role of IRSA
3. Lack of dams and modern irrigation system
4. Kalabagh dam-A controversial issue
5. Wastage of water and its lack of significance among public
6. Challenges of IBIS-Pakistan
- Natural cause:
Increase in global warming and chlorofluorocarbons
o Impacts of glooming water crises:
- Global impacts:
- Threat of war between Pakistan and India on war
- Local impacts:
1. Devastation of agriculture
2. Loss of economy
3. Scarcity of water will cause unrest among people
4. Pakistan will bound to purchase water from foreign countries
o Management of water crises:
- International levels:
Pakistan should involve SAARC and UN to urge India not to make dams on western rivers
- National level:
1. National development economic programme 2005-10
2. Construction of dams and their improvement:
– Kalabagh dam
– Bhasha dam
– Gomal dam
– Thal reservoir
– Raising Mangla dam
3. Utilisation of water:
- Irrigation
- Power generation
- Drinking
- Industry
4. Water price should be increased.
5. Nationwide campaign for the importance of water.
o Conclusion
Introduction:
Many have lived without love, but no one without water.
(W.H. Auden)
Water is one of the precious natural resources in the world. It has a great significance for both
living and non-living things. Unfortunately, it is becoming a hot potato among countries due to
its scarcity. Particularly in Pakistan, the situation is quite alarming. Although Almighty Allah has
blessed it teeming with abundant resources but when it comes to water, due to couple of reasons,
Pakistan has fallen into the abyss of severe water crises. According to World Bank report,
availability of water in Pakistan was 5000 cubic meters per capita in 1950 but now it has been
dreadfully fallen to merely 1490 cubic meters per capita. There are several reasons which have
caused such downfall – the violation of Indus basin water treaty by since 1980 when she started
making dams on three western rivers namely Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. India’s nefarious steps
against Pakistan have proved a death-nail for Pakistan. Moreover, in 1947, the matter of
utilisation of water resources of Indus basin was raised by Pakistan and the boundary common,
chaired by Sir Radcliff awarded control barrages to India, while 90 percent of irrigated land lay
in Pakistan. Notwithstanding, the misery does not end here because lack of poor management by
government, unrest among provinces claiming right on quota of water and inefficient role of
IRSA, lack of dams especially the issue of Kalabagh dam, wastage of water its seepage coupled
with its lack of importance among people and also absence of a system of affluent disposal on
barrages and canals in Punjab and Sindh being the challenge of IBIS-Pakistan have further
triggered the water crises. The rapid change in climate followed by global warming also adds
fuel in its scarcity.
Now the impacts have arisen to an alarming situation because there is a threat of war between
Pakistan and India on water. If water crises prevail, it would be fierce blow to agriculture sector
of Pakistan in the result of its devastation and it will lead to an immense loss of economy
because agriculture is a backbone of the country and it contributes about 24 percent of its GDP
and 70 percent of exports are also dependent on this sector. The scarcity of water will also cause
unrest among people and Pakistan would be bound to purchase it from foreign countries.
To efficiently manage such glooming crises of water, it is the dire need of the hour Pakistan
should involve SAARC and UN to urge India not to make new dams on rivers having exclusive
right as per Indus basin Treaty and stop making work on Wullar, baglihair, Kishanganga and Uri
II project. The National Development Economic Programme 2005-10 started by ex-Prime
Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani to constructe new dams by 2016 was indeed a great step. The
improvement of dams, preservation of ground, and especially construction of Kalabagh dam
would be very beneficial. The raising of Mangla dam by 40 feet and construction of Thal
reservoir, Bhasha dam and Gomal dam are such worth taking measures that can efficient manage
the prevailing water crises.
The proper utilisation of water by irrigation, power generation, drinking and industry should be
practiced. It’s quite evident that people waste water due to its low monetary value. The
government should increase its price so that people use it carefully. Nevertheless, a nationwide
campaign and headed by government with the help of media to let people aware of the
importance of water, its present crises and ways to manage would be and effective measure to
get the country out of water crises.
Top #5 Water Scarcity Issues in Pakistan Essays
Essay#1: Pakistan – from a “Water-Stressed” to a “Water-Scarce” Country | Complete Essay with

Outline
By:*Syed Muhammad Abubakar
Introduction
Background of the Topic
Is a Single Dam Enough to combater Water Crises?
Pakistan at Water Stress Line
Main Sources that feed the Indus River System
The Situation of Ground Water
The Guidelines of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) – 1960
Main Issues of Water Scarcity
The Exponential Rise in Population
Water Losses
Inefficient Water Management Practices
Raising of Crops like Rice and Sugarcane
Unscientific Irrigation Methods
First-ever National Water Policy
Raising of Rice and Sugarcane – Bane or Boon?
The Pakistan Economic Survey, 2017-2018 Reports
Increase in production of Rice and Sugarcane (The High Water Need Crops)
More such Crops; More water Consumption
Policy Vs Reality (Suggestions to Curb the Scarcity)
Agriculture consumes 95% of Water
One Million Tube Wells
Wastage of Water
The scarcity of Clean and Safe Drinking Water
NWP Guidelines
The Promotion of Greater Urban Water Management
Revision of Urban Water Tariffs.
Enhancing Recovery
Reducing System Losses
Agriculture Sector needs More Focus
A need for Provincial Water Policies
Strengthening WAPDA
The need for Resources – CPEC, etc
The Need to Link Water Policies with Pakistan Vision 2025 and SDGs
Inefficient Consumption and Negligible Recycling
First Come First Serve Policy
The need for*Establishment of National Level Water Institutions
The Development of Sectoral and Implementation Plans
Conclusion
The year 2025 has been marked as the year when Pakistan — if it doesn’t mend its ways soon — will
turn from a “water-stressed” country to a “water-scarce” country. Warnings about water running out
have been issued separately by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Pakistan
Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR). And as the alarm bells began to ring, the chief justice
of Pakistan launched a campaign to build the Diamer Bhasha and Mohmand Dam. In his inaugural
speech, Prime Minister Imran Khan, too, has announced his backing for the plan.
Whether a single dam is a panacea to all of Pakistan’s water woes is, of course, questionable.*Consider
the facts: per capita surface water availability of 5,260 cubic meters per year in 1951 turned into around
1,000 cubic meters in 2016. This is likely to further drop to about 860 cubic meters by 2025. The PCRWR
describe that Pakistan reached the “water stress line” in 1990 and crossed the “water scarcity line” in
2005.
The Indus river system receives an annual influx of about 134.8 million acre-feet (MAF) of water. The
mean annual rainfall ranges from less than 100 millimeters to over 750 millimeters. Surface water
comprises glacial melt up to 41 percent, snowmelt up to 22 percent and rainfall 27 percent.
In terms of groundwater, Pakistan is currently extracting 50 MAF from underground aquifers — this has
already crossed the sustainable limit of safe yield.
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) enabled Pakistan to enhance water availability at canal headworks
to about 104 MAF through the construction of dams. However, this has decreased due to increased
siltation.
Pakistan’s water woes can largely be bifurcated into issues of quality and quantity. The water coming
into our systems over the past decades hasn’t changed much. But demand has soared due to an
exponential rise in population. Existing reservoirs’ storage capacity cannot sustain this population boom
while its capacity has also been reduced over the years.
Meanwhile, the water reaching the end user has also decreased due to further losses along the way. Our
water management practices are highly inefficient — one illustration is how freshwater is used for
irrigation purposes. The kind of crops we grow — rice and sugarcane, for example — and the way we
irrigate them isn’t sustainable, either.
Because many people’s livelihoods are tied to growing more rice and more sugarcane, these crops will
remain popular. Without any education or awareness about how not to waste water or how to utilize
efficient irrigation methods, the wastage will continue.
While doomsday is just seven years away, it took over 70 years for Pakistan to draw up its first-ever
National Water Policy (NWP), approved in April this year. The policy is still riddled with some significant
gaps but at least, it lays out a few principles that ought to be adhered to. But in some ways, it is merely a
compilation of suggestions.
The Pakistan Economic Survey, 2017-2018 (prepared by the Ministry of Finance) details the state of the
economy over the past year. It announces that the agriculture sector recorded a “remarkable” growth of
3.81 percent (as opposed to its targeted growth of 3.5 percent). The high water-need crops of rice (8.65
percent growth) and sugarcane (7.45 percent) both surpassed their respective production targets for
2017-18.
Prosperity brought by high water-need crops has meant that more farmers have preferred planting
more rice and sugarcane.
The Pakistan Economic Survey, 2017-2018 notes that while the rice was sown over 2,724 thousand
hectares last year, it rose to 2,899 thousand hectares this year. “[H]igher domestic prices and availability
of inputs on subsidized rates, good advisory along with an increase in export,” according to the survey,
contributed to more land being used to grow rice. This 6.4 percent increase ultimately yielded a
production high of 7,442 thousand tonnes. Last year, 6,849 thousand tonnes of rice were produced in
Pakistan.
The survey also shows that sugarcane was cultivated on an area of 1,313 thousand hectares, an increase
on last year’s area of 1,218 thousand hectares. “[G]ood economic return encouraged the growers to
bring more area under cultivation and [so did] comparatively timely payments from sugar mills last
year,” explains the survey. This 7.8 percent rise in acreage translated into a 7.4 percent hike in
production: from 75.482 million tonnes to 81.102 million tonnes.
There is a flip side, however. More water is utilized in growing these water-intensive crops. For instance,
sugarcane requires 1,500-2,500mm of rainfall (or water from other sources) to complete the growth
cycle. In other words, to produce a kilo of sugarcane, between 1,500 and 3,000 liters of water are
utilized. Similarly, at 0.45 kilograms per cubic meter, Pakistan’s rice water productivity is 55 percent
lower than the average water productivity of one kilogram per cubic meter for rice in Asian countries.
Because many people’s livelihoods are tied to growing more rice and more sugarcane, these crops will
remain popular. Without any education or awareness about how not to waste water or how to utilize
efficient irrigation methods, the wastage will continue.
It follows, therefore, that a country tethering on the edge of water scarcity ought to de-incentivize the
growing of water-intensive crops. In practice, this means convincing the farmers that they will not be hit
by a financial loss were they to switch to other crops.
The NWP acknowledges that irrigated agriculture is the backbone of the economy and consumes around
95 percent of the water resources.
Furthermore, around one million tube wells in the country pump about 55 MAF of underground water
for irrigation, which is 20 percent more than what’s available from canals — signaling how highly water-
intensive the agriculture sector is. This is all unsustainable.
On the other hand, while there is great water wastage in the rural sector, providing potable water to the
cities has become a challenge.*One of the more achievable targets set by the NWP is the access to clean
and safe drinking water and sanitation facilities for all.
Towards that end, the policy has also urged the promotion of greater urban water management and
revision of urban water tariffs. It also encourages enhancing recovery and reducing system losses,
treatment of industrial effluents and provision of the sustainable supply of water for everyone.
But it is still the agricultural sector whose water utilization needs to be under the microscope. Till now,
the policy seems divorced from the financial compulsions of those whose livelihoods are associated with
the agricultural sector.
Dr. Pervaiz Amir, director of the Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP) believes that policies are designed
and implemented for the people and the civil society should have been engaged in debates and
discussions towards this end.
“Balochistan has already prepared its water policy whereas Punjab and Sindh are working on theirs,”
explains Dr. Amir. “It is very important that the provincial policies are congruent and must not be in
conflict with the national water policy of Pakistan.”
For him, the federal water ministry is weak and there is an urgent need to strengthen the Water and
Power Development Authority (Wapda).
“Instead of reviving old horses, a better option is to establish a new institution which has a diverse set of
experts, not just engineers,” he adds.
The PWP chief points out that the policy fails to explain the most important question of where the
resources will come from. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one option; the Chinese are
already operating a plant to provide potable water to their engineers working in water-scarce Gwadar.
But will such measures have broader utility?
“Through CPEC, investments are going to increase,” continues Dr. Amir, “and the question about how
CPEC is going to integrate with water demands immediate attention. We should know the supply and
demand side.”
Tahir Rasheed, CEO of the South Punjab Forest Company (SPFC), also laments the absence of
stakeholder consultations in all provinces, including Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. He sees the need for
the water policy to be linked with national, regional and international commitments such as Pakistan’s
Vision 2025 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
“Integrated watershed management should be promoted,” says Rasheed, “including ecological

conservation practices in uphill watersheds, by exploring the possibility of joint watershed management
of trans-boundary catchment areas with neighboring. The policy is also silent on reactivating centuries-
old traditional wisdom of water management and use of tools such as Rodh Koi system, Sailaba, Karez
systems, etc. It should also address the trans-boundary water pollution aspect, on which even the Indus
Waters Treaty is silent.”
Dr. Tariq Banuri, the founding executive director of Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), a
senior climate expert and currently heading the Higher Education Commission (HEC) as its chairman,
agrees that Pakistan is wasting its water resources due to inefficient consumption patterns and
negligible recycling.
When asked if the water policy will help address the indiscriminate wastage of this precious resource, he
said: “Our systems are inefficient. The National Water Policy does spell a range of issues with respect to
water but it doesn’t have details that can help to operationalize it. Its strategic and operational steps are
not devised as yet. The environmental aspect of water in sustaining the environment has not been
recognized in the policy either.”
Banuri explains that population growth has played a major role in decreasing the available amount of
water per person and clearly shows that the lower riparian will not be able to receive their due share.
“The existing water system is actually on the first-come-first-serve basis and this is not useful,” he says.
“The water policy does recognize it but its details have not been worked out as yet.”
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, CEO of the Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD)-Pakistan and a
senior water expert, termed water a provincial matter and urged the need for a national-level
framework that acts as a guiding tool for provinces.
“The water policy is an enabling document,” comments Sheikh, “which will lead to the establishment of
national level water institutions, and unless the institutions are endowed and empowered, we won’t be
able to achieve desirable results.”
Ali urged the federal government to earnestly address the reservations of the provinces concerning the
water policy and also informed that the policy framework will make an overdue start.
“The policy will require sectoral plans and unless they are developed for key departments, things won’t
go very far. First of all, there should be an overall implementation plan and then sectoral
implementation plans should be developed for agriculture, climate, energy and other sectors,” sums up
Ali.
While experts have termed the policy a step in the right direction, they have also recommended some
measures that will make it further inclusive and bridge possible gaps. Now that the policy has been
approved, the government must work aggressively to implement it in letter and in spirit if it is serious to
address the water crisis that the entire nation is grappling with.
About Author:*Syed Muhammad Abubakar is an environmental journalist who works on climate change,
water, deforestation, food security and sustainable development. He tweets*@SyedMAbubakar
Essay#2: Mega Dams and Donations. Can Mega Dams be built be donations?
By:*Khurram Husain
Outline
Introduction – Water Crises in Pakistan

Disagree with the Subject (Proceed with Thesis Statement)
Reasons for Negation
Mega Reservoirs need an enormous amount of money
Mathematically the collection will take 199 years (Rs. 20m/day)
The target for next year will be collected in 3.2 years
Double the Numbers – still 1.5 years
Infrastructure finance cannot be crowd-sourced
A common*doner lacks awareness
Who will be the authority to transact these funds?
What are the rules of business?
Who will supervise the proper utilization of funds?
Such JOKES of serious matters were done in past
Pervez Musharraf’s*President’s Relief Fund*after the earthquake of 2005
Nawaz Sharif’s ‘qarz utaro, mulk sanwaro’ scheme
Similar scheme by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto
Conclusion
Public finances cannot be run in this way, especially infrastructure finance.
One can appreciate the chief justice of Pakistan’s*sensitivity*to the growing*water crisis*in Pakistan,
but with all due respect, this is not how infrastructure finance is done. You do not crowd-source a mega
dam. The fact that this even needs to be said is embarrassing, to say the least.
Just consider a few questions that arise when trying to use voluntary donations to fund the Diamer-
Bhasha dam, whose cost has been given as Rs1.450 trillion. This figure is taken from a briefing given by
water and power officials at a hearing of the Senate Standing Committee on Planning, Development,
and Reform. The cost of reservoir construction was given as Rs650 billion, and the rest for power
turbines and associated infrastructure, and land acquisition and resettlement.
Now let’s do some math on this. As of writing, the total amount deposited in this account was Rs32
million. Since the account is shown as being open since July 6, let’s assume only three of those days
were functioning; that comes to almost Rs10m per day. Next let’s assume this will pick up the pace since
tacit pressure has come to apply on banks to raise funds from their employees (in a meeting held on
Tuesday). Exactly how ‘voluntary’ the contributions will be is a separate conversation. For the moment,
if we assume that on average, the account sees an inflow of Rs20m per day (which is highly optimistic),
then it will take 72,500 days to reach the target or 199 years.
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Wait a minute, some people will say. All the money does not need to be available up front in order to
begin work! Fair enough. Consider another angle. For next year, the amount allocated for construction
of the dam part of the project alone is Rs23.68bn as per the Public Sector Development Programme
(PSDP) document on the Planning Commission’s website.
Now do the math. At Rs20m per day, it will take 1,184 days to reach the target of Rs23.68bn, or 3.2
years. Meaning even next year’s PSDP allocation (for the dam part alone) will not be possible to meet
the amount.
You can change the assumptions. Let’s say the contributions come in larger than what I have assumed
(which, mind you, is generous). Let’s say it’s double the size. That cuts down the period by half, meaning
it will take more than a year and a half to reach next year’s target alone.
Let’s say instead that the contributions are not meant to pay for the entire dam, but only to supplement
government allocations for the project. Even then, a year’s intake of Rs7.3bn (assuming a Rs20m per day
average contribution for the year) will not even be enough to pay for a portion of the resettlement cost
of the project.
Public finance is not a joke, the state cannot be run like a charity, and infrastructure finance cannot be
crowd-sourced like this. Mind you, the calculations here assume an average contribution rate of Rs20m
per day, every day, for years and years on end. How long will the momentum behind this endeavor
sustain itself? Weeks? Months?
Before people are asked to contribute their hard-earned money for any cause, they are entitled to ask a
few basic questions. What will this money be used for? Who will have the authority to transact these
funds? What rules will govern its distribution? How much of an impact will my contribution have?
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Perhaps these questions ought to be answered first. For example, will the money from the account be
disbursed directly to the point where the costs are coming from, or will it simply be handed to Wapda,
the water and power division, or the finance ministry? If it is the former, then let’s take one example. If
a technical consultant needs to be retained to advise on what type of cement to use given the extremely
large annual temperature variation in the region, and the attendant expansion and contraction that the
dam structure will undergo in a typical year making the choice of concrete quite crucial, who will decide
which consultant is most suitable for the job? What criteria will be used to make the selection?
There are thousands of such decisions that have to be made in mega projects of this sort. What are the
rules of business according to which these funds will be distributed? If the plan is to simply hand them
over to Wapda, who will supervise the funds to ensure their proper utilization? How much expertise and
experience does that person have in the execution of giant, highly technical projects of this sort?
This is not the first time that a joke has been made out of a very serious matter. After the earthquake of
2005, Pervez Musharraf launched a similar fund called the President’s Relief Fund. Once launched,
similar tacit pressure tactics were used to get people to pay up, and one by one various companies lined
up saying ‘we are pleased to contribute’, and the amounts were a million here, two million there, until
interest dried up and everyone moved on.
Likewise, Nawaz Sharif launched a ‘qarz utaro,*mulk sanwaro’ scheme in his second term, in the late
1990s, in an effort to get donations to help pay off Pakistan’s external debt. That too ended in an
embarrassing whimper.
A similar scheme by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in his last year. The television ads asked everyone to contribute
one rupee a day, which the ad promised would be used for development purposes. The visual used to
illustrate ‘development’ was a cement elevator. And that was also that.
Fact is, modern-day public finances cannot be run in this way, least of all when it comes to infrastructure
finance. It’s time to grow up and face the facts: until we fix our water-pricing regime, there is no way out
of this crisis.
Essay#3:*Water Crises in Pakistan | Complete Essay
The almost drought-like situation in many parts of the country at the start of the*Kharif*sowing season
is cause for serious alarm.
There is a tendency to treat such conditions with an air of resignation as if we are totally helpless before
the vagaries of nature; in fact, some people, in view of the scarce water available for our agrarian needs,
start talking, reflexively, about building the*Kalabagh dam.
Given that we are likely to face similar situations in the future, with weather patterns becoming more
erratic, it is vital to move beyond these simple positions. Pakistan’s food security, as well as its industrial
base, is largely built on the irrigation system bequeathed to us by the Americans, working through the
World Bank in the wake of the Indus Waters Treaty.
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This country is, at its roots, a hydraulic society, and water, especially for irrigation, is its most important
natural endowment, upon which is based our entire social structure.
When looking at water issues faced by the country, quantity is only one dimension of the challenge. The
real area of concern, for which urgent solutions are required, is utilization.
According to the*Indus River System Authority, the body tasked with managing the allocation of the
country’s irrigation water, somewhere between 9 MAF to 10 MAF of water is usually released during the
Kharif crop sowing season. This year, the amount that has been released is 5.8 MAF, a near-disastrous
shortfall due to diminished inflows in the dams. But the real story is that of this amount, nearly 1 MAF
has been lost, ie it was released but never reached the command heads further downstream.
Some losses are normal, due to seepage and evaporation, but*Irsa*says the figure is unusually high this
year. This loss is south of*Taunsa Barrage.
Reports of widespread black marketing of water, which is pumped out illegally using pumps and then
poured into tankers which are sold to farmers at a steep price, are widespread across Sindh.
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Tail-end farmers*on the*Nara canal, which feeds large parts of Mirpurkhas Division, for example, claim
they have counted more than 800 pumps operating upstream while their watercourses are parched.
Can this sort of theft be possible without the connivance of the provincial irrigation department?
*On top of this, there is the matter of poor water practices on farms, where large landowners still use
antiquated flood-irrigation techniques, resulting in much wastage, instead of investing in modern
irrigation technologies to conserve and make judicious use of a scarce resource.
Until these problems — theft and waste —are adequately addressed, it would be futile to talk of
Pakistan’s water crisis in terms of quantity alone.
Drought is indeed a natural phenomenon that humans can do little to reverse. But how we adapt to it is
in our control.
---------------
Essay#4:*Drought a Ticking Time Bomb
By*Saad Gul
Coupled with the general effects of global warming, Pakistan is facing a certain water emergency. It lacks
a water management policy and deficiently handles its available hydel resources.
Water is vital for agriculture, human life, industry, and energy generation. Globally, agriculture accounts
for over 70 percent of freshwater consumption. Industries make the second largest claim on the world’s
water bodies, accounting for nearly 25 percent of global water use. Water used by households, schools,
and businesses account for less than a tenth of global water use today.
Most countries and private companies around the world are planning way ahead to tackle this
mammoth problem that the planet is facing, head on. Scientists have been long trying to identify the
root causes of the lack of fresh water. Some suggested developing methods to use salt water for
irrigation, while others toyed with the idea that they could take stem cells from cows to create muscle
tissue, just like nature does, to derive meat. Resultantly, the abundance of agriculture will lead to an
abundance of fresh water because wastage would be minimized.
Compare this with what is happening here; the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources
(PCRWR) reported in 1990 that Pakistan touched the “water stress line”. This red flag should have been
the ultimate wake-up call but…!
Then, only a few days ago, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) warned that Tarbela and Mangla dams
are likely to reach the dead level within the next 24-48 hours. This is worrying because national food
security is on the line.
As much as 40 percent of Pakistan’s energy comes from water. Over 90 percent of freshwater supply is
used towards agriculture. An estimated $21 billion worth of water (roughly 35 million acre-feet) is
dumped into the sea, annually, since water conservation systems are absent. The stance on a
comprehensive National Water Policy is still unclear. How do we prevent the country from running dry
by 2025?
Compare this “land of five rivers and glaciers” with Israel, which is nearly 60% desert, yet a water
superpower. It not only feeds its own population with fruits and vegetables but exports billions of
dollars worth of produce annually. Despite the fact that they get little annual rainfall, have only one
freshwater lake and no major rivers. How do they do it?
Over the years, Israel has implemented a centralized water planning market-pricing system, which works
like a pay-as-you-use model. Furthermore, it appointed regulators and educated its citizens to conserve
water.
Why can’t we take lessons in just one of these areas and start implementing it to our current inefficient
water management models? Water reuse is an industrial process that enables the additional use of
previously-used water before it returns to the rivers or the sea after it has undergone a wastewater
recovery and treatment process that ensures the legally required quality. The ultimate goal of this
process is to ‘reclaim water’ that can be directly offered to other users or exchanged for better quality
water.
Much depends on public policies, but also on individual choices, as well as on the technological options
available. The alarm has been sounding since 1990 and the drought time bomb is ticking. Will planners
and people at large rise out of slumber to save this country?
Originally Published in*The Express Tribune, June 3rd, 2018.
Essay#5: Hydrological War of India against Pakistan:*Plans, Impact and Consequences
Introduction / Background
During past decade*nuclear arch rivals*Pakistan and India came to brink of war many times but shown
restrain every time. Better sense prevailed on both sides. In 2004 by announcing unilateral ceasefire
at*LOC (line of control)*Pakistan paved the way forward for durable peace in*subcontinent. It was
envisaged after initializing peace process that now as both the countries are*N-capable*so they are
bound to solve their bilateral issues on table but courtesy to Indian*aggressive water policy*these
hopes are fading away with each passing day.
Population growth in subcontinent is major impediment in progress. Pakistan is facing stiff challenges on
many fronts. Water and energy security are most important of these.
Pakistan is on the brink of water disaster and its availability has decreased to 1,200 cubic meters per
person from 5,000 cubic meters in 1947 and is predicted to plunge to 800 cubic meters by 2020. This is
alarming situation and making the things even worse India has started many hydro power projects,
dams, reservoirs and barrages on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir.
Water dispute between Pakistan and India started when a*boundary commission*for demarcating
the*international boundaries, in the states of Punjab and Bengal under the chairmanship of*Sir Cyril
Radcliffe*was constituted. He awarded most of the canals and the canal irrigated land to Pakistan, but
the sources of all the five tributaries of the*Indus- Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej-*remained in
India. Thus, India continued to be the*"upstream riparian"*of the Indus and its tributaries. To fully
comprehend the complication that the Indus River bears, it is essential to understand Indus River
system.
Situation is going to get worse in future if India completed all its projects on Pakistani rivers flowing from
Kashmir into Pakistan. Many international authors and thinkers have already rung the alarm bell while
analyzing Pakistan’s water, food and energy security in future in context of Indian plans on Pakistani
rivers and clumsy response from many Pakistani governments in Islamabad.
Indus River Basin
Dispute between Pakistan and India on water can only be understood after getting an insight about
Indus river basin system.
Soon after independence, the problem drew the attention of the governments of India and Pakistan as
both countries wanted to extend irrigation on their side of border. Bilateral negotiations were initially
held but settlement was ultimately arrived under the*patronage of the*World Bank. In*Sep. 1960,
The*Indus Water Treaty*was signed.
Under this treaty, Pakistan received exclusive rights to the water from the three*Western rivers –
*Indus, Jelum and Chenab*– with an assured flow of about 166.46 x 109 m3 or 135*million acre-
feet*(MAF). Water from three*eastern rivers- Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, with an annual flow of 33 MAF were
allocated to India. The treaty established a transition period up to 31st March 1970 for Pakistan to
construct its systems of works, called*Indus st Basin Replacement Plan. Meanwhile, India was to
continue supply of water to Pakistan to irrigate about 1.2 Mha area before replacement works (two
storage dams, five barrages, one siphon and eight link canal system) were completed. As a result, there
is an impressive list of post independence irrigation works in the Pakistan.
History of Indo-Pak Water Dispute
Prior to independence the British started to establish a linked canal system in various parts of
subcontinent. For this purpose number of*headworks*and canals were built, dams were envisioned.
On April 1st, 1948, India stopped supply of water to Pakistan from every canal flowing from India to
Pakistan. Pakistan protested and India finally agreed on an interim agreement on May 4, 1948*(Inter-
Dominion Accord). This accord required India to release sufficient waters to Pakistani regions of the
basin in return for annual payments from the government of Pakistan so this agreement was not a
permanent solution.
By 1951, dispute had taken a very dangerous turn as both countries were not talking to each other on
this matter anymore and a war was very much at hands therefore, Pakistan approached the*World
Bank*in 1952 to help breaking the*deadlock*and settle*the problem permanently. Negotiations were
carried out between the two countries through the offices of the World Bank for six years (1954-60). It
was finally in*Ayub Khan's*regime that an agreement was signed between India and Pakistan in
September*1960. This agreement is known as the Indus Water Treaty.
Indus Water Treaty 1960 (IWT)
This treaty divided the use of rivers and canals between the two countries. Pakistan obtained exclusive
rights for three western rivers, namely Indus, Jehlum and Chenab. And India retained rights to three
eastern rivers, namely Ravi, Beas and Sutluj. The*treaty also guaranteed ten years of uninterrupted
water supply. During this period Pakistan was to build huge dams, financed partly by long-term World
Bank loans and compensation money from India but India denied money to Pakistan for this purpose.
After Indian denial of money The Bank responded with a plan for external financing supplied mainly by
the United States and the United Kingdom Three*multipurpose dams, Warsak, Mangla and Tarbela were
built. A system of eight link canals was also built and the remodeling of existing canals was carried out.
Five barrages and a gated*siphon were also constructed under this treaty.
Important points of IWT (Indus water Treaty)

India will have exclusive right over Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) until they crossed into Pakistan.
2. Pakistan will have exclusive rights over Western Rivers (Chenab, Jehlum and Indus)
3. India will be allowed to use Western River waters for non-consumption use only (excluding irrigation
and storage).
4. India will pay one time to Pakistan for loss of its water of Eastern Rivers.
5. A transitions period till 31 March 1970 will be maintained by both sides so that Pakistan can build its
link canal system to divert water from its Western Rivers to Eastern Rivers through these link canals.
6. Both sides will avoid building any man made structure which can change natural course of water.
7. Both sides will be responsible for maintaining Indus basin by adopting best practices available.
8. India will be bound to inform Pakistan about design of any work on Western river well before start of
any work on Western rivers.
9. If India construct any work on Western Rivers it will supply water downstream that was received by a
dam or barrage within 24 hours.
Indian Plans for Pakistani Rivers
IWT was a treaty heavily in favor of India. India got unrestricted allocation of Eastern Rivers and some
limited allocation on Western Rivers along with permission to complete under-construction dams and
reservoir these included Mahora, Ganderbal,*Kupwara, Bhadarwah, Kishtwar, Rajouri, Chinani Nichalani
Banihal etc. Pakistan did accept accord as there were still guarantees and criteria to ensure water
availability to Pakistan and this was perhaps the last chance for settling the dispute peacefully.
India till this day has continued to pursue its dream of making Pakistan docile to fulfill Indian desires. To
achieve this dream India decided to manipulate provisions of IWT 1960 cleverly and now is in process of
building multiple dams and barrages clearly*breaching the provisions described in the treaty. The aim is
to damage link canal system of Pakistan by blocking water in one season and to destroy ready crops in
the other season by releasing excessive waters through these dams and barrages. Diversion of water is
also a disturbing practice opted by India during recent years.
Below are the details of some of the current and proposed Indian projects on Western rivers. These
details clearly showcase intentions of India about water flow towards Pakistan.
Chenab
India has already built 14 hydroelectric plants on Chenab River and is building more plants which will
enable it to block entire water of Chenab for 20-25 days. These dams have also enabled India to release
huge quantity of water downstream not only to cause damage to standing crops but also to our canal
systems. Chenab River provides water to 21 canals and irrigates about 7 million acres of agriculture land
in Punjab province of Pakistan.
Baglihar Dam
Baglihar Dam is located near Doda (on river Chenab which according to Indus Water Treaty belongs to
Pakistan. Baglihar dam is 143 meters (470 feet) high, equal to world’s largest rockfilled dam at Tarbela,
Pakistan. The dam also houses gated spillways to control the flow of water of river Chenab.India
initiated this project in 1999 and spent more money than what was estimated. The increase in initial
estimated cost of the dam in 2002 resulted in Rs5 per unit (highest in India) increase cost of electricity to
be produced from the dam. Baglihar dam was the first project by Indian which was referred to neutral
expert in the World Bank.Pakistan time and again reminded India about its reservations and concerns
regarding this project but instead of taking Pakistani concerns into consideration India continued
construction of Baglihar dam even*after the matter was taken to World*Bank for arbitration. Pakistan
raised following concerns regarding design of*the dam:
Height of Dam:Height of freeboard (The vertical distance between the top of the dam and the full supply
level on the reservoir) of dam must be reduced as it is in excess of designed parameter of the dam.
Gated spillways: India must abandon gated spillways design as it will enable India to manipulate water
flow by blocking. There must be only a run of river project.
Poundage /Storage:Storage capacity of reservoir of the dam must be reduced so that flow of the river is
not interrupted.The World Bank expertRaymond Lafitte*approved the project in February 2007 but
asked India to reduce height of the freebed by one and a half meters and reduction in poundage of
storage from Indian claimed 38 million cubic meter (MCM) to 32 million cubic meter whereas Pakistan
asked to reduce it. Other objections were rejected.During 2008*Rabi*sowing season (Jan-Mar) Pakistan
suffered a loss of more than 20 billion rupees. Not only that but production of Wheat crop along with
petty crop like Rice, Cotton also got affected due to low water in canals originated from
Chenab.Financial Viability of the project shows India is determined to cut flow of Pakistani rivers from
Kashmir. Per MW cost of electricity from Baglihar is Rs8.89 Corer which is much higher than other parts
of India and the only reason for that is the increased cost*of the project which was initially estimated at
Rs27 Billion but increased to more than Rs40 billion. Despite this surge in cost India never showed any
hesitation to undertake this enterprise. Cost will further increase after India modified its design in order
to*implement verdict of neutral expert which includes reducing height of free board of dam.Hydrologic
viability is another gauge of Indian intention behind this project. After commissioning second phase of
Baglihar total electricity out put will be 900 MW. The question here is; whether 900 MW production at
Baglihar viable? For how many days in a year the production could be maintained at that rate?In its May
2005 issue, ‘Dams, Rivers & People’ reported, “It will require 860 cumecs of water (to generate 900
MW), but Chenab flow reduces to lower than that in winter. In fact flow in Chenab reduced to upto 50
cumecs. The Indian authorities have not made public the hydrologic data or the projected power
generation from the project. The experience of the existing 690 MW Salal project on Chenab 480 MW
Uri HEP on the adjoining basin Jhelum shows that these projects in fact generate much less power in
winter when the need for power is maximum in J&K.”
So it is evident that purposes of the dam, electrical station, reservoir and gated spillways are much more
than what the Indians have projected about this dam.
•*Salal Dam
This dam was built on River Chenab in 1987 and was commissioned in 1993; it is built downstream of
Baglihar. It is medium size dam with height of 113 meters and it has a reservoir level of 494 meters.
Means it can block water of Chenab.*Water discharging from downstream of Baglihar reaches Salal.
India has always claimed that hydro projects in*Indian Held Kashmir (IHK)*are for the population of
Jammu and Kashmir but according to official sources of*National Hydroelectric Power Corporation
(NHPC), the main contractor and builder of many dams in India and Kashmir including Salal dam,
electricity generated by Salsal project will be provided to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh,
Rajhisthan, and Uttar Pradesh, and the union territory of Chandigarh.
Like always India told the world and Pakistan that this project is built adopting run-of- river method
(without any reservoir) but below image taken from*Google Maps*clearly exposes a reservoir and
blocked water flow of Chenab.
•*Dul Hasti
Located in Kishtwar district Hydro-electric power project comprises a “diversion dam ” at ‘Dul’ across
the river Chenab and a power house at ‘Hasti’. Test runs begun in 2007. The dam was initiated by Prime
Minister*Indira Gandhi*way back in 1983. The dam infrastructure was demolished once by Kashmiri
freedom fighters in early 1990s and work on dam was abandoned afterwards. The construction started
later on the project. Once again built in Kashmir, the dam benefits only parts of India including Haryana,
Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan and Chandigarh whereas Jammu and Kashmir will
merely get 12% of royalty of the project.
Concrete gravity*dam of 185 m length and 65 m height has an un-gated spillway of 40 m and a gated
spillway of 64 m with 4 radial gates. Again gated spillways are there just to stop flow of water to
Pakistan.
This dam also tells the same story how committed India is to carry the plan to barren Pakistan
completely by blocking flow of water of Pakistani rivers. Initial cost of the dam was estimated at Rs183
crore (in 1983) but due to delays the project cost climbed to Rs5228 Corer. This is 28 times increase in
cost but still India completed this project and commissioned it on April 26, 2008. War is the only thing
where any government can put so much resources and time on a single project.
• Tawi-Ravi Link
River Tawi is a major left bank tributary of Chenab. It also flows into Pakistan along with Chenab and
finally joins latter. To steal river Tawi’s water India built a*lift irrigation scheme*on the left bank of Tawi
River. Main elements of this scheme are an uplift pump near Bahu fort in Jammu city and a canal system
which joins another canal, Ravi-Link canal, near Vijaypur. Ravi Link Canal is drawn out from right bank of
river Ravi.
To send water into Tawi canal system, uplift water pumps lift water 31 meter higher from river level and
put it into canal from where it is send to Ravi-Link Canal so that India can use this water in Ravi River
which was given to India in IWT 1960.
Future Plans of India on Chenab

Indian determination to make Pakistan barren in near future has pushed her nefarious designs up to
next level. All the above mentioned dams were not adequate to fulfill Indian designs against Pakistan
therefore more dams and reservoirs are planned on*river Chenab according to next five-year
development plan of India. Below is the detail of these projects.
Pakal Dul & other Chenab Basin Projects
Pakal Dul and two other projects aggregating to about 2100 MW in Chenab Basin are proposed to be
implemented through a Joint Venture Company in pursuance to MoU signed on 10.10.2008.
According to Indian ministry of water Pakal Dul (Drangdhuran)Hydroelectric Projectis envisioned as a
reservoir based scheme proposed on river Marusudar, the main right bank tributary of river Chenab in
Kishtwar Tehsil of Doda District in Jammu & Kashmir. This is again a violation of IWT.
The Project envisages construction of a concrete face rock-fill dam across river Marusudar at village
Drangdhuran and an underground Powerhouse at a location 2 km upstream of Dul dam, near village
Trimuli. At*Full Reservoir Level*(EL 1700 M), the gross storage of the reservoir is 125.4 MCM. The
project will cost more than Rs5500 Corer.
After Baglihar, It will be interesting to see how an even higher dam affects the flow of Chenab and this is
the first time Indians are going to build a dam with reservoir and they have announced this plan vocally.
Capacity of the reservoir is another indication of*how big this will be after completion. Baglihar with its
32 MCM can reduce flow of 7000 cusecs to Pakistan it must be much easier to understand that what
impact a reservoir with a capacity of 124.4 MCM will have on downstream flow of the river.
Environmentally, this project can prove to be an ecological disaster as most of its submerged area will
consist of forests and agriculture lands. Submergence of forest land leads to loss of biodiversity and
habitat destruction of wildlife on the other hand submergence of agriculture land as well as dwelling
require rehabilitation of ousted people.
The Bursar Hydroelectric Project

To complete the agenda of blocking water of Chenab India has stepped up its plans mainly encouraged
by clumsy and delayed response and quietness of Pakistani government on other above mentioned
dams.
India wants a reservoir based dam upstream to all other dams i.e. Pakal Dul, Dul Hasti, Rattle, Baglihar,
Sawalkot and Salal Hydroelectric Projects, thereby enhancing the potential of all downstream schemes
in winter season as Chenab flow reduces to a large extent in winter. India needs enough water which
she can feed to its downstream dams then those dams will also store water and hence blocking entire
water of Chenab in winter season when Pakistani farmer sow wheat. This purpose will be served by The
Bursar Hydroelectric Project. It is declared Indian project and it is going to be a reservoir based dam.
According to Indian claims this will mitigate the shortage of water availability in the river during the
winter months. But this dam just like Pakal Dul will be built on Marusudar River a major right bank
tributary of Chenab. Pakal Dul dam itself will have a storage capacity of 125 MCM besides this Bursar
another dam will be a 252m high rockfill dam these two dams will give India total control of this major
tributary of Chenab.
Once again a project built on Pakistani river flowing in a disputed territory will serve Indian states
Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Union territories of
Chandigarh & Delhi.
Jehlum
Jehlum is second in list of Western Rivers which were given to Pakistani according to IWT in 1960. Indian
plans to block water of Pakistani Rivers ajre not limited to Chenab. Jehlum is the next target of India.
Indian schemes on this river are more impudent and will violate IWT much more meanly.On Chenab
Indian are busy building dams with excessive poundage capacities while on Jhelum plans are more inline
with diversion of water from Jehlum and its tributaries so that flow of river can be reduced when it cross
into Pakistan.
Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project
This barrage is going to be built on river Jelhum near mouth of Wullar Lake near Sopore town in
Kashmir. Wullar is largest fresh water lake in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan gave it the name according
to design of project i.e. Wullar Barrage while India once
again to deceive everybody around calls it Tulbul Navigation Project.
Barrages are built mainly to divert water from rivers into canals for irrigation or link purposes. India has
no such provision on Jehlum under IWT. This barrage was proposed in 1984 when tension between
Pakistan and India was high. Mostly projects built on Western rivers were conceived in 1980s. India
claims that this barrage will make Jehlum navigable in summer while Pakistan knows that India will use it
as a geo-strategic weapon to manipulate flow of water specifically in winter.This project is a clear
violation of IWT as according to IWT India is not allowed to built any man- made structure on Western
river which can interrupt flow of any of these rivers. This proposed barrage will eventually have a
potential to destroy whole triple canal system which Pakistan built after IWT was signed. This system
includes major canals which irrigate millions of acres in Punjab and consists of Upper Jhelum Canal,
Upper Chenab Canal and the Lower Bari Doab Canal.
According to the original Indian plan, the barrage was expected to be of 439-feet long and 40-feet wide,
and would have a maximum storage capacity of 0.30 million acres feet of water.
What India has done to Pakistan in case of Baglihar dam there is no reason to believe what India is
telling the world about this project. World Bank once again favored India on this project as well and
could not force her to abandon the project when the matter was referred to it in 1986 eventually
Pakistan was forced to knock the door of International Arbitral Court in 1987 when India was forced to
stop further construction work.Wullar Barrage is one of the agenda item in composite dialogue between
Pakistan and India and after more than 10 rounds there is no progress as usual due to Indian persistence
that this project is rightful under IWT.
KishanGanga
Once again India named this project as such so that real intention can be concealed. Kishanganga
project is going to be a dam on river Neelam, known as Kishanganga in Indian Held Kashmir. Geologically
it is an extremely complex project as it will have a 27 km long tunnel to divert water of Neelam from its
natural course which is a clear violation of IWT. This tunnel will be connected to Jehlum in South
through North Kashmir mountain range.
The tunnel will initiate and take water from a 103 meter high reservoir on river Neelam. This reservoir is
also part of the project and will submerge almost the entire Gurez valley along the AJK's Neelum valley
but for India any ecological disaster is miner thing to take into consideration when it comes to blocking
or diverting Pakistani water so these concerns were never taken up by higher echelons in New Delhi.
The plan is to change the course of river Neelam about 100 km from its natural course and link it to
Jehlum at Wullar Lake near Bandipur through a channel and above mentioned tunnel.
Presently, the Neelam and Jhelum rivers join each other at Muzaffarabad at a point called Domail.
Through the proposed Wullar barrage project, India claims to maintain constant yearly flow in Jhelum
but in reality this 100- kilometer diversion of the Neelum River, Pakistan's Neelum Valley could dry up
and become a desert.
The most important issue here is the diversion of the Neelum River waters to the Wuller Lake. According
to some estimates, the diversion will also reduce the flow of water into Pakistan by a factor in between
25 percent to 33 percent. Further it will ruin Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum project as water of Neelam will
be diverted by India already from its 14 natural course and power generation capacity of the project will
reduce to an extent that sole purpose of the project would die. Blueprints and technical stipulations for
this project were finalized in 1997 and*WAPDA*selected this project in 2001 for execution under
its*Vision 2025.
India is going to complete its project after a gap of 18 years and the cost have gone up by 68% than what
it was estimated at the time of its inception.
India wants to gain control over Neelam and that’s why she has decided to initiate work on the project
in 2008 and complete it by January 2016. Although the matter is disputed between two countries but
Indian intentions are to exploit condition in IWT which allow control over Neelam’s water to whoever
completes their project first. In 2008, Indian minister for water affairs, Jairam Ramesh, said,“This project
is of strategic importance to India. We will shortly take the revised cost estimates of Rs3,700 crore ($928
million) for the project for the cabinet’s approval. We have to move heaven and earth to ensure the
earliest commissioning of the project,” This statement must be an eye opener for anyone who still has
any doubt about Indian plans about making Pakistan barren in near future.
This project would pose a serious threat to wildlife in and around Wullar Lake and also affect people
who live on the banks of Neelam and utilise its water for daily usage. Even environmentalists in India
have objected to the project.
Once again the beneficiary states include Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh,
Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Union Territory of Chandigarh & Delhi for a project which is going to be
executed in Jammu and Kashmir and was claimed to be a project for local population of Jammu and
Kashmir.
URI Power Project

Uri hydro power project is next dam on a Pakistani river where a dam is constructed. Uri is a town on
the river Jhelum in the Baramula district, in Jammu and Kashmir . The town is very near to LoC. This
project consists of a 52 m high and 152 meter long dam with 4 spillways.Indian claims that purpose of
the project was to generate cheap electricity from run of river project. In reality this project is already
causing many problems to locals and to ecosystem as well.According to Jan 2006 issue of ‘Dams, River
and people’ it was expected to generate full output almost continuously for five months of the year
(April-Aug) with production falling to lower levels in the winter.Further it was stated that project has
cost 98% more than initial estimates meaning doubling the cost of power generated and yet it
performed 27% less than what was envisaged since its commissioning in 1996-97. NHPC, company which
has built the dam admitted in 2004-05 that URI is a non-peaking station and the result is low
performance and huge cost of the electricity produced by this project which is too high to buy for state
of Jammu and Kashmir.Uri project was executed without a proper plan for the people affected by the
project and their compensation is due compensation issues remain unresolved over eight years after
completion of the project.Instead of learning some lesson from its mistakes made in Uri-I, India has
announced to undertake Uri-II hydro power project which will be built downstream to Uri-I.Accordingly
to NHPC this Project is planned immediately downstream of Uri-I and will pick up its tail water to make
use of the gross head of about 130m available in the course of the river between Uri-I tailrace outlet and
a place located about 1.25 km downstream of the confluence of Goalta Nallah and Jhelum River, close to
theLine of Control (LoC).It is strange to go for such a project which is located at line of fire despite the
failure of Uri-I which already has destroyed another old 1962 built Mohra HEP of 9 MWas URI diverts all
the water from upstream of this project. Now this must be no surprise why
16 after so many failures in one single project India has given a go-ahead to its second extension at the
same location.From all above mentioned projects it has become clear that Indian intentions about
Pakistani waters are very malicious. India is very carefully choosing spots on Western Rivers so that it
can block flow of water despite small size of dams and reservoirs. These spots are located in areas
where rivers flow very low in winter season. Even small and medium size dams on these spot on rivers
and their tributaries will enable India to manipulate water flow if it is desired.
Indus
Indus is largest river in Pakistan and largest of all three Western rivers which were allocated to Pakistan
under IWT in 1960. the river initiates from China and reaches Jammu and Kashmir region and flow there
for a kilometer and then cross into Northern
areas of Pakistan and take its natural turn towards south in KPK and continues for almost 1700 kilometer
towards south passing through Punjab and Sindh before it finally falls into Arabian Sea.Indus is fed from
nine Himalayan glaciers and number of tributaries also initiated from Himalayan ranges. Although Indus
and its tributaries belong to Pakistan as per IWT but India has started building dams (work on minimum
three is underway) on Indus main and its tributaries to interrupt flow of Indus before it cross into
Pakistan.According to media reports Indian Parliament has approved construction of 500 km long train
track from Hamachel Pradesh to Ladakh which would be utilised for transportation of construction
material for Kargil dam and three other reservoirs being built on the Indus River.
Below are the details of dams Indian are building on Indus:
Nimoo Bazgo
Nimoo Bazgo is 57 m (187 feet) high Concrete Gravity dam which is under construction on main Indus
River. The main site is located 70 km from Leh and work is already underway.Once again Indian claim
that this is a run-on-river scheme but looking at average availability of water in the river in winter it is
hard to believe that this is a hydro power project. India initiated this dam in November 2006 and
completion is planned to be happen in October 2010.The dam is being built on a location where seven
sub watersheds join Indus and the dam is going to face a problem of muck due to geology of the site.
The area is highly non forest so nothing will stop water from brining mud along with water which would
have a possibility to stop water flow completely.India seems to be in hurry to complete this project so a
massive workforce is deployed on the site and almost 75 percent of the work has been completed.India
is spending Rs6.11 billion just to produce 45 MW electricity and that would only possible when power
station works on full capacity which is not possible in winter when glaciers stop melting.
The more interesting thing to note here is Indian contractor (NHPC) never released any data on its
website regarding capacity of the reservoir and type of spillways which is really disturbing as any gated
spillways on Indus would enable India to block every drop of water flowing into Pakistan.
The Dumkhar
Following the pattern of building multiple dams on western rivers in single area, which was adopted on
Chenab, India is perusing its plan daringly for Indus river as well and there has been a urgency in this
drive since last year or so. After Nimoo-Bagzo, India’s next dam would be some 48 km downstream i.e.
Dumkhar hydro power porject. The project is located 128 Km from Leh near Dumkhar village.The
Dumkhar project envisages construction of a 42 m high concrete gravity dam across river Indus. This
dam would also house two diversion tunnels although the project is a run on river but still diversion
tunnels will affect the flow of water particularly in winter
season.
Again no data is given about reservoir and discharge spillways (gated or ungated) is provided by Indian
authorities
.
• Chutak Hydroelectric Project
Just like tributaries of Chenab Indian belligerence is once again evident by Chutak dam which India is
building on river Suru. River Suru is one of major Indus river tributary.
The barrage of the project is located near Sarzhe Village and the power house will be located on the
right bank of river Suru near Chutak Village. The project is located near Kargil airfield of Inain Air Force.
Other Issues
• River training works like spurs and groynes
IWT prevents both countries from building any structure that can change natural flow of*water from its
natural course. India has built river training works on Ravi River opposite to Narowal (Pakistan). Narowal
has suffered a dreadful flood in 1992-93 in monsoon when India released excessive water into Ravi
River.
River Training Works usually carried out to divert the flow of a river for some other construction work
like bridge, dams, barrages etc.
International Water warfare against Pakistan

After blocking its water in Kashmir by building multiple dams on Pakistani rivers now India has taken this
water war beyond bilateral level. Currently due to changed geo political environment India has excellent
relation with puppet Afghan government.By harnessing these relations now India is pursuing an agenda
of persuading Afghan government to build a big dam on Kabul River so that its flow into Indus River in
Pakistan can be blocked.Afghanistan at present utilities just a fraction of Kabul waters to irrigate about
12,000 acres of land. According to new proposed plans a dam will be constructed on the Kabul River and
will set up Kama Hydroelectric Project to utilize 0.5 MAF water to irrigate*additional 14,000 acres.
Any dam on*Kabul River*will affect its flow into Indus especially in winter as Indus emits from glaciers
which melt less in winter and some of these glaciers don’t melt in winter season at all.
Indian plans don’t end here. This is just beginning of a very troublesome water policy by India towards
Pakistan. Below is list of Indian planned dams on Pakistani rivers all these dams along with completed
projects will enable India to block Pakistani water for a considerably long period of the time.
Planned dams / Barrages on Pakistani Rivers

According to Jammu and Kashmir State Power Development Corporation Ltd following projects would
also built on Pakistani rivers.Jhelum River Basin
• Lower Jhelum
• Upper Sindh-I
• Ganderbal
• Upper Sindh-II
• Pahalgam
• Karnah
Chenab Basin
• Chenani-I
• Chennai-II
• Chenani-III
• Bhaderwah
• Baglihar-II
Indus Basin
• Iqbal
• Hunder
• Sumoor
• Igo-Mercellong
• Haftal
• Marpachoo
• Bazgo Stakna (with J&KPDD)
Impact of Indian dams in Kashmir over Pakistan
Apart from huge storage capacities of above-mentioned dams time of their filling is also a high concern
for Pakistan for example Baglihar Dam can block 7000 cusecs of water per day whenever India wishes to.
Storage of water in Baglihar Dam reduced the flow of water in Chenab River during the sowing period of
August to October 2008 and badly affected the agriculture sector of Pakistan. Pakistan lost 23000 cusecs
of water; farmers could not irrigate their fields due to shortage of water and resultantly 3.5 million
agriculture tracts got barren. The standing cotton, paddy crops of basmati rice of Kharif season in Punjab
which were ripe got badly affected.
The sowing of next crop of wheat in September-October also got affected and so was the case with Rabi
crop in January-February this year due to reduced flow of water.
The Baglihar Dam together with Dul Hasti and other dams can plainly diminish the flow of Chenab during
the vital Rabi crop-sowing season (January and February).
Both countries have allocated resources and have shown will to fight with time to gain control over
Neelam. For Pakistan it is a matter of survival, once control over Neelam lost life of Mangla dam would
be at risk and the entire investment made on Neelam-Jehlum project will also be wasted.
In worst case scenario, agriculture and electricity aside, Indian blockade of Pakistani water will tear apart
Pakistani social fabric as there will be a severe reduction in productivity and millions of people will be
deprived of food and water. Riots in large cities and towns may erupt and this would jolt the law and
order situation in the country. Such incidents with less intensity have already taken place in Pakistan
against constant load-shedding of electricity. Trains and infrastructure was set on fire in some cities,
roads were blocked in other and thousands of employees lost their jobs.
The impact will be multifold in case of water scarcity. Millions of people in Punjab, NWFP and Sindh are
directly or indirectly related to agriculture sector. These people will be worst sufferers and as a result of
no agriculture productivity those who are not related to agriculture would also get affected as there
would be no food item like wheat, sugar, rice, cotton etc. in market. As a result of mass hunger,
provinces can also turn into hostile neighbors to which eventually would weaken Pakistani state. The
country would descend into battles, riots and quarrels over food and water like many African countries.
See Also: Essay on Pakistan Agriculture Economy and Policy*
India in the past have released excessive water into rivers crossing into Pakistan and as a result severe
floods in KPK, Punjab and some parts of Sindh as well played havoc. The 1992 flood is one such example
when India released excessive water into Ravi River which badly affected lands of Punjab and Norowal
district in particular.
Other than flood there are multiple concerns over Indian plans vis-à-vis Pakistani interests like
• In May 2009, Chairman Indus Water Council Pakistan and Coordinator World Water Assembly
Zahoorul wrote that ‘Indian water terrorism’ posed more serious threat to Pakistan than Taliban. He said
the pace with which India was diverting Pakistani rivers, the day is not far off when the country would
face situation like Somalia, Ethiopia and Chad.
Indian water aggression will destroy local industry and agriculture. Trailer of this horror movie has
already been played during Rabi season last year when India started to fill Baglihar dam despite knowing
it was sowing season in Pakistan. With even larger dams India will be able to stop Pakistani water for
entire season which will destroy linked canal system of Pakistan.
Chutak is under construction on River Suru. In case any of these dams collapse or large quantity of water
is deliberately released, it will not only endanger our proposed Bhasha dam but also submerge Skardu
city and airport. KKH between Besham and Jaglot would wash away.
Uri Power Project is located very near to LoC and the world knows that LoC is a constant flashpoint
where exchange of artillery fire always remains probable. Any such fire exchange put this project at risk
as well but still Indians are pushing it hence it is evident that India wants Pakistan to take a provoking
step in this sector and India can use this opportunity to attack Azad Jummu Kashmir.
Dams Despite problems…Why?
Most notable aspect of Indian water aggression is that India has a poor record of dam safety. Many
projects after or during execution have ran into serious technical hazards;
Two persons died and a dozen were injured when a tunnel of the prestigious Dul Hasti hydro project
collapsed on January 29th 2007. The incident took place a the day before the National Hydro Power
Corporation (NHPC) was scheduled to carry out trial run. This happened due to use of substandard
material.
The hydel project on river Chenab near Kishtwar (Doda) had been in controvers ever since the French
consortium Domez Sogia Boresea stopped work midway after the abduction of one of its engineer in
1992. Four years later, NHPC engaged Jai Parkash Industries to execute the civil works and at that time,
the project was estimated to be commissioned by October 2003 at a cost of Rs4,000 crore. Now, the
project cost has increased to Rs5,000 crore, with NHPC authorities expecting to complete it by March.
Consequences! Wars on waterSituation in Pakistan
India is executing a massive plan of hydro power plants in Kashmir using Pakistani waters. Electricity
produced from these rivers will be provided to all neighboring states of Jammu and Kashmir whereas
situation in Pakistan is really dispiriting when one looks at hydro production in Pakistan.
Pakistan could not build any big reservoir after Mangla and Tarbela dams. No new barrage was
constructed either to increase the area under cultivation. Population increase over the years has made
the situation worrisome for planners to allocate adequate per capita energy and food resources.
Currently, Pakistan has 40,000 MW hydro Power potential on river Indus alone while combined estimate
of whole Indus basin river system surpasses the figure of 70,000 MW. But unfortunately only 5000 MW
is being produced at the moment which is merely 12.5% of total potential. Pakistan is going to face
severe shortage of power as from 2010 on wards demand is going to hit 25,000 MW whereas the
capacity will go down further with rusting and problems in older thermal plants.
Existing total installed capacity in Pakistan is 17,726 MW including total Hydel 5010 MW ( Ranges from
1990 MW to 5120 MW due to seasonal variations) , total Thermal 12,254 MW and Nuclear Power 462
MW. The Thermal Portion also includes 5813 MW from the private sector.
Policy Recommendations
Water security must be an integral part of Pakistan’s defense policy. To make sure that Pakistani rivers
(Indus, Chenab, Jehlum, Nelam) keep flowing normally Pakistan must utilise every possible mean from
legal to military.
Pakistan must declare its response in case India tries to divert or block Pakistani water in Kashmir.
Parliament and military brass must form a uniform and cohesive policy to counter this existential threat.
An aggressive and principled position must be taken at global level on water issue with India. It must be
aired at every international forum that consequences of Indian water belligerence towards Pakistan
would be worst and would put lives of 1.5 billion people of the region at risk.
Power generation by hydro power plants must be encouraged at all levels and government must set a
clear target of building specific number of dams to fulfill the needs of energy and irrigation and also to
reduce oil export bill which currently is being used in thermal power plants.
Parliament must define a maximum threshold time period, based on estimates of population growth
and increase in local demand, after it must become necessary for ruling government to initiate at least
one large reservoir in the country.
To overcome the loss of water for the last three decades Pakistan needs more than one big dam and
Kalabagh dam is one such project which can fulfill the needs of the country. Political parties must
constitute a team and must review objections of Sindh and NWFP provinces on this project and must
come up with a workable solution instead of criminally putting the most important project in cold
storage as the current government in Islamabad has done.
After Baglihar experience, Pakistan must have no doubt about Indian intentions about Pakistani rivers
flowing from Kashmir. Pakistan needs real time imagery satellite to monitor its rivers in Indian Held
Kashmir (IHK) and Indian activities on these rivers. So more funds for scientific research and
development are recommended here. For interim bases friendly countries like China can be approached
to get satellite imagery of Western Rivers. There are reports that India has stolen water from Indus via a
tunnel. These kinds of activities can only be monitored in real time using satellite technology.
Bigger hydel power projects must be completed at priority like Munda power project, Kohala Power
project etc.
An aggressive policy is needed to be adopted on funding problems for Diamir- Basha dam as it is the
only big reservoir on Indus which can ensure water security of the country. Government must also
approach friendly countries like China, UAE for the project if World Bank and Asian Development bank
fail to provide finances for the project.
Pakistani government must take local people around the project sites into confidence as India has
already launched massive propaganda mission against proposed dam in Gilgat and Baltistan. Below is
one example;
…“First, the people and political parties of the NA such as Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), Gilgit-
Baltistan Alliance (GBNA), Jammu Kashmir All Parties National Alliance (APNA) accuse Islamabad of
ignoring them before announcing the construction of the dam. This ignorance has taken the shape of
mass demonstrations and protest movements.”….Complete article can be read at
http://www.dailyexcelsior.com/web1/06mar23/edit.htm#3• Reports suggest that Rs537 billions
external assistance is expected for Indian planned projects on Jehlum and Indus Rivers. This is a clear
case of international hypocrisy as World Bank denounced any aid for Pakistani dam on Indus in Northern
Areas (Diamir-Basha, Bonji etc) on a pretext of location of these dams being in a disputed area. The fact
is that all Indian dams in Jammu and Kashmir are also in disputed area since the entire region is disputed
as per UNO between Pakistan and India. How come India can get massive foreign assistance for hydro
projects in Kashmir if Pakistan can’t get similar assistance for similar projects in its own Northern Area?
Pakistan foreign office must take up this matter with international donors. An awareness campaign must
be launched in local and international media to highlight this duality by international donors.
Kashmir is sensitive for both India and Pakistan and without any local support India will try to avoid war
in this sector but will use every possibility to damage Pakistani agriculture sector by blocking waters and
would try to maintain her peaceful posture in international community by propaganda. To counter this
Pakistan must rush to approach International Court of Justice for its share of water which India did block
in 2008 through Baglihar dam and which is very probable in near future as well. A strong case in
International courts would put international construction companies and donors not to provide
assistance in any water project on Western Rivers in Jammu and Kashmir.
Pakistan must ask India to provide complete record of its activities on Western rivers. This is important
because under IWT either party must notify the other of plans to construct any engineering work which
could affect the other party and to provide data about such works.
If India delivers information about its future plans on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir, the matter could be
taken up in parliament by political forces. While a group of experts in WAPDA and Water and Power
ministry must come up with a report about potential side effects of any such project being executed on
Pakistani rivers so that solid objections can be raised on proposed Indian projects on Western Rivers.
End Notes:
All the figures and facts described in reports were gathered from following sources;
Ministry of Power, Govt. of India

• Ministry of water, Govt. of India
• National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC), Govt. of India
• Jammu and Kashmir State Power Development Corporation Ltd, India
• Water and Power Development Authority, (WAPDA) Govt. of Pakistan
• World Bank
Water Scarcity and National Unity

1. Introduction (Opening and Thesis Statement)
2. Retrospection of water mismanagement
2.1. Indus Water Treaty and subsequent emergence of water scarcity
2.2. Civilian governments' ineptness to render water conservation strategies
2.3. Lack of unanimous national water policy
2.4. Interminable animosity between federal and provincial governments
3. The present natural calamities
3.1. Unpredictable climate extremes
3.2. Melting of glaciers and resultant flood crisis
3.3. Volcanic eruptions and eventual soil erosion
4. Agricultural issues
4.1. Waterlogging
4.2. Low crop yield and ultimate food insecurity
4.3. Lack of techniques to preserve surplus water flow
5. Industrial issues
5.1. Profuse wastage of groundwater for production/manufacturing
5.2. Huge profits of bottled water/water distributing companies
6. Other issues
6.1. Prevalence of diseases from importable water consumption
6.2. Scarcity of dams
6.3. Overpopulation
6.4 A long-simmering issues of Kalabagh dam
6.5 Lethargy of public to consume only required water
6.6 Unequal share of water for provinces and its diversion
7. How can national unity be achieved?
7.1. accountability of industrial (public and privately owned) companies
7.2. Construction of more dams
7.3. Plantation of more trees to reduce GHG emissions
7.4 Imposition of company tax for privately-owned companies
7.5. Installation of modern agricultural equipment
7.6. Voluntary family planning programs to prevent population growth
8. Conclusion
I would perceive this topic as briefly mentioned below.

introduction
1. how water crisis endanger national unity?

o a threat to the economy(as water security, food security, and energy security
inextricably linked).
o breed social unrest and health hazards (unemployment, poor socio-economic
indicators etc)
o threat to the national integrity and security (internecine conflict among federating
units and political exploitation of water share )
2. what are causes behind water crisis?
o cross-border water resources
o climate change
owater management
ointerprovincial hydro-politics
ochanging the demography of the country
3. Measures to mitigate the water crisis
the solution should be three legs table.
o legal framework
o improved institutional structure
o adaptation of new technologies
conclusion
Pakistan - from a “Water-Stressed” to a “Water-Scarce” Country | Complete Essay with
By: Syed Muhammad Abubakar
Introduction
Background of the Topic
Is a Single Dam Enough to combater Water Crises?
Pakistan at Water Stress Line
Main Sources that feed the Indus River System
The Situation of Ground Water
The Guidelines of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) - 1960
Main Issues of Water Scarcity
The Exponential Rise in Population
Water Losses
Inefficient Water Management Practices
Raising of Crops like Rice and Sugarcane
Unscientific Irrigation Methods
First-ever National Water Policy
Raising of Rice and Sugarcane - Bane or Boon?
The Pakistan Economic Survey, 2017-2018 Reports
Increase in production of Rice and Sugarcane (The High Water Need Crops)
More such Crops; More water Consumption
Policy Vs Reality (Suggestions to Curb the Scarcity)
Agriculture consumes 95% of Water
One Million Tube Wells
Wastage of Water
The scarcity of Clean and Safe Drinking Water
NWP Guidelines
The Promotion of Greater Urban Water Management
Revision of Urban Water Tariffs.
Enhancing Recovery
Reducing System Losses
Agriculture Sector needs More Focus
A need for Provincial Water Policies
Strengthening WAPDA
The need for Resources - CPEC, etc
The Need to Link Water Policies with Pakistan Vision 2025 and SDGs
Inefficient Consumption and Negligible Recycling
First Come First Serve Policy
The need for Establishment of National Level Water Institutions
The Development of Sectoral and Implementation Plans
Conclusion
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
The year 2025 has been marked as the year when Pakistan — if it doesn’t mend its ways soon —
will turn from a “water-stressed” country to a “water-scarce” country. Warnings about water
running out have been issued separately by the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) and the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR). And as the alarm
bells began to ring, the chief justice of Pakistan launched a campaign to build the Diamer Bhasha
and Mohmand Dam. In his inaugural speech, Prime Minister Imran Khan, too, has announced his
backing for the plan.
Whether a single dam is a panacea to all of Pakistan’s water woes is, of course, questionable.
Consider the facts: per capita surface water availability of 5,260 cubic meters per year in 1951
turned into around 1,000 cubic meters in 2016. This is likely to further drop to about 860 cubic
meters by 2025. The PCRWR describe that Pakistan reached the “water stress line” in 1990 and
crossed the “water scarcity line” in 2005.
The Indus river system receives an annual influx of about 134.8 million acre-feet (MAF) of
water. The mean annual rainfall ranges from less than 100 millimeters to over 750 millimeters.
Surface water comprises glacial melt up to 41 percent, snowmelt up to 22 percent and rainfall 27
percent.
In terms of groundwater, Pakistan is currently extracting 50 MAF from underground aquifers —

this has already crossed the sustainable limit of safe yield.
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) enabled Pakistan to enhance water availability at canal
headworks to about 104 MAF through the construction of dams. However, this has decreased
due to increased siltation.
Pakistan’s water woes can largely be bifurcated into issues of quality and quantity. The water
coming into our systems over the past decades hasn’t changed much. But demand has soared due
to an exponential rise in population. Existing reservoirs’ storage capacity cannot sustain this
population boom while its capacity has also been reduced over the years.
Meanwhile, the water reaching the end user has also decreased due to further losses along the
way. Our water management practices are highly inefficient — one illustration is how freshwater
is used for irrigation purposes. The kind of crops we grow — rice and sugarcane, for example —
and the way we irrigate them isn’t sustainable, either.
Because many people’s livelihoods are tied to growing more rice and more sugarcane, these
crops will remain popular. Without any education or awareness about how not to waste water or
how to utilize efficient irrigation methods, the wastage will continue.
While doomsday is just seven years away, it took over 70 years for Pakistan to draw up its first-
ever National Water Policy (NWP), approved in April this year. The policy is still riddled with
some significant gaps but at least, it lays out a few principles that ought to be adhered to. But in
some ways, it is merely a compilation of suggestions.
The Pakistan Economic Survey, 2017-2018 (prepared by the Ministry of Finance) details the
state of the economy over the past year. It announces that the agriculture sector recorded a
“remarkable” growth of 3.81 percent (as opposed to its targeted growth of 3.5 percent). The high
water-need crops of rice (8.65 percent growth) and sugarcane (7.45 percent) both surpassed their
respective production targets for 2017-18.
Prosperity brought by high water-need crops has meant that more farmers have preferred
planting more rice and sugarcane.
The Pakistan Economic Survey, 2017-2018 notes that while the rice was sown over 2,724
thousand hectares last year, it rose to 2,899 thousand hectares this year. “[H]igher domestic
prices and availability of inputs on subsidized rates, good advisory along with an increase in
export,” according to the survey, contributed to more land being used to grow rice. This 6.4
percent increase ultimately yielded a production high of 7,442 thousand tonnes. Last year, 6,849
thousand tonnes of rice were produced in Pakistan.
The survey also shows that sugarcane was cultivated on an area of 1,313 thousand hectares, an
increase on last year’s area of 1,218 thousand hectares. “[G]ood economic return encouraged the
growers to bring more area under cultivation and [so did] comparatively timely payments from
sugar mills last year,” explains the survey. This 7.8 percent rise in acreage translated into a 7.4
percent hike in production: from 75.482 million tonnes to 81.102 million tonnes.
There is a flip side, however. More water is utilized in growing these water-intensive crops. For
instance, sugarcane requires 1,500-2,500mm of rainfall (or water from other sources) to
complete the growth cycle. In other words, to produce a kilo of sugarcane, between 1,500 and
3,000 liters of water are utilized. Similarly, at 0.45 kilograms per cubic meter, Pakistan’s rice
water productivity is 55 percent lower than the average water productivity of one kilogram per
cubic meter for rice in Asian countries.
Because many people’s livelihoods are tied to growing more rice and more sugarcane, these
crops will remain popular. Without any education or awareness about how not to waste water or
how to utilize efficient irrigation methods, the wastage will continue.
It follows, therefore, that a country tethering on the edge of water scarcity ought to de-
incentivize the growing of water-intensive crops. In practice, this means convincing the farmers
that they will not be hit by a financial loss were they to switch to other crops.
The NWP acknowledges that irrigated agriculture is the backbone of the economy and consumes
around 95 percent of the water resources.
Furthermore, around one million tube wells in the country pump about 55 MAF of underground
water for irrigation, which is 20 percent more than what’s available from canals — signaling
how highly water-intensive the agriculture sector is. This is all unsustainable.
On the other hand, while there is great water wastage in the rural sector, providing potable water
to the cities has become a challenge. One of the more achievable targets set by the NWP is the
access to clean and safe drinking water and sanitation facilities for all.
Towards that end, the policy has also urged the promotion of greater urban water management
and revision of urban water tariffs. It also encourages enhancing recovery and reducing system
losses, treatment of industrial effluents and provision of the sustainable supply of water for
everyone.
But it is still the agricultural sector whose water utilization needs to be under the microscope.
Till now, the policy seems divorced from the financial compulsions of those whose livelihoods
are associated with the agricultural sector.
Dr. Pervaiz Amir, director of the Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP) believes that policies are
designed and implemented for the people and the civil society should have been engaged in
debates and discussions towards this end.
“Balochistan has already prepared its water policy whereas Punjab and Sindh are working on
theirs,” explains Dr. Amir. “It is very important that the provincial policies are congruent and
must not be in conflict with the national water policy of Pakistan.”
For him, the federal water ministry is weak and there is an urgent need to strengthen the Water
and Power Development Authority (Wapda).
“Instead of reviving old horses, a better option is to establish a new institution which has a
diverse set of experts, not just engineers,” he adds.
The PWP chief points out that the policy fails to explain the most important question of where
the resources will come from. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one option; the
Chinese are already operating a plant to provide potable water to their engineers working in
water-scarce Gwadar. But will such measures have broader utility?
“Through CPEC, investments are going to increase,” continues Dr. Amir, “and the question
about how CPEC is going to integrate with water demands immediate attention. We should know
the supply and demand side.”
Tahir Rasheed, CEO of the South Punjab Forest Company (SPFC), also laments the absence of
stakeholder consultations in all provinces, including Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. He sees the
need for the water policy to be linked with national, regional and international commitments
such as Pakistan’s Vision 2025 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
“Integrated watershed management should be promoted,” says Rasheed, “including ecological

conservation practices in uphill watersheds, by exploring the possibility of joint watershed
management of trans-boundary catchment areas with neighboring. The policy is also silent on
reactivating centuries-old traditional wisdom of water management and use of tools such as
Rodh Koi system, Sailaba, Karez systems, etc. It should also address the trans-boundary water
pollution aspect, on which even the Indus Waters Treaty is silent.”
Dr. Tariq Banuri, the founding executive director of Sustainable Development Policy Institute
(SDPI), a senior climate expert and currently heading the Higher Education Commission (HEC)
as its chairman, agrees that Pakistan is wasting its water resources due to inefficient consumption
patterns and negligible recycling.
When asked if the water policy will help address the indiscriminate wastage of this precious
resource, he said: “Our systems are inefficient. The National Water Policy does spell a range of
issues with respect to water but it doesn’t have details that can help to operationalize it. Its
strategic and operational steps are not devised as yet. The environmental aspect of water in
sustaining the environment has not been recognized in the policy either.”
Banuri explains that population growth has played a major role in decreasing the available
amount of water per person and clearly shows that the lower riparian will not be able to receive
their due share.
“The existing water system is actually on the first-come-first-serve basis and this is not useful,”
he says. “The water policy does recognize it but its details have not been worked out as yet.”
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, CEO of the Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD)-
Pakistan and a senior water expert, termed water a provincial matter and urged the need for a
national-level framework that acts as a guiding tool for provinces.
“The water policy is an enabling document,” comments Sheikh, “which will lead to the
establishment of national level water institutions, and unless the institutions are endowed and
empowered, we won’t be able to achieve desirable results.”
Ali urged the federal government to earnestly address the reservations of the provinces
concerning the water policy and also informed that the policy framework will make an overdue
start.
“The policy will require sectoral plans and unless they are developed for key departments, things
won’t go very far. First of all, there should be an overall implementation plan and then sectoral
implementation plans should be developed for agriculture, climate, energy and other sectors,”
sums up Ali.
While experts have termed the policy a step in the right direction, they have also recommended
some measures that will make it further inclusive and bridge possible gaps. Now that the policy
has been approved, the government must work aggressively to implement it in letter and in spirit
if it is serious to address the water crisis that the entire nation is grappling with.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Water Crisis in Pakistan and its remedies
SOURCES OF WATER
God has blessed Pakistan with abandoned water resources, with water
flowing down the Himalayas and Karakorum heights, from the world’s largest
glaciers, a free and unique bounty of nature for this land of alluvial plains. As
a result of this natural resource, today we have the world’s marvelous and
the largest irrigation system that irrigates over 16 million hectors of land,
out of 34 million hectors of cultivable land available. Basically we have two
major sources of water i.e. surface water & ground water.
SURFACE WATER
In surface water we have three hydrologic units. First one is Indus Basin
River.
(a) Indus Basin River
At the time of independence, we had about 67 maf water available for

diversion; this amount increased to about 85 maf by 1960. In 1960 Pakistan
signed a water treaty “Indus water treaty” with India, which brought major
changes in the sources of water for Pakistan. In that treaty the right of three
eastern rivers i.e. Beas, Sutlej and Ravi was given to India. Now the Indus
river basin constitutes of the mountain basins Indus plain, Karachi plains and
desert areas of Sindh. Its principle rivers and tributaries are Indus, Shyok,
Gilgit, Astor, Siran, Kabul joined by Jhelum, Chenab and Sutlej. It covers an
area of 516,600 sq. km. its source of water are snowing, glacier melting and
rainfalls. From this annually 141.67 maf of water is being received.
(b) Closed basin Kharan desert
It consists of areas of mountain basins of Quetta and basins of tributaries

draining in to Kharan desert. its main rivers are Pishin Lora, Baddo
Rakhshan, Mashkhel and many other streams. It covers an area of 120,100
sq. km. its main sources of water are rainfall and nominal snow. Here we are
getting approximately 4.5 maf of water.
(c) Makran coastal basin

Makran coastal basin constitutes of streams of Malir, Hub, Porali, Kud,
Hingol, Nai, Mashhai, Dasht, Nihing and Kech. It covers an area of 122,400
sq. km and its main source of water is rainfall. From this basin 0.78 maf of
water.
Now coming towards groundwater sources.
Ground water:-
The Indus plains constitute about 34 million hectors (over 85 million acres)
of cultivable land. The recharge or absorption to the ground is around 72
maf, out of which about 48 maf is in the command of Indus basin irrigation
system (ibis). Ground water is also found in some rain-fed (barani) lands
and inter-mountain valleys at depths varying from 100 to 200 feet.
After pointing out the main sources of water, let’s have a glance of the water
available to us through them. We receive an average of 141.67 maf of water
from western rivers. Eastern rivers contribute 8.47 maf of water. About 4
maf of water is received from outside Indus plains. Water available above
rim stations is 5.28 maf whereas rainfalls below rim also contribute about 14
maf of water. Also about 66.89 maf ground water is available to us. In other
words a total of 240.22 maf of water is available to us from the present
sources.
For controlling the water resources and for its effective utilization lets have a
glance at the present storages and its capacities.
Water reservoirs / capacities:-
Pakistan is having three basic reservoirs, namely mangla dam reservoir,

Terbela dam reservoir and Chashma barrage reservoir. more small
reservoirs like Warsak, Baran dam hub, Khanpur, Tanda, Rawal, Simly,
Bakht khan Hamal lake, Mancher lake, Kinjhar lake and Chotiari lake Arealso
included as small storage. The storage capacity of these reservoirs is as
shown on the view foil.
I shall be discussing only the major reservoirs only.
(a) Terbela dam reservoir
World’s largest earth and rock filled dam was built at Terbela on river Indus
in 1976 with a gross capacity of 11.62 maf and a live storage capacity of
9.68 maf. With the passage of time, due to silting, 24.6% of the storage has
been lost and now it has a live storage of 7.295 maf.
(b) Mangla dam reservoir
Mangla reservoir is the second major storage of Pakistan. It was built in

1967 on river Jhelum with a gross capacity of 5.882 maf and live storage of
5.41 maf. Again due to siltation it has lost 13.2% of its storage and
presently can store 4.636 maf of water.
(c) Chashma barrage reservoir
Chashma barrage is situated on river Indus and was built in 1972 with a
gross storage of 0.870 maf and live storage of 0.717 maf. It has also
reduced its storage capacity by 39.3% and is left with a storage capacity of
0.435 maf.
UTILIZATION OF WATER
In Pakistan we utilize the water available to us for different purposes. The

basic utilization is for irrigation and then used for power generation, drinking
and also provided to some Industries.
(a) Irrigation
Out of 240.22 maf, 172.21 maf water is utilized for irrigation purposes as
shown on the view foil. In this the canal diversions is 105.23 maf; system
loses are 144-40; rainwater is 6.0 maf; ground water is 41.30 and utility
above rims is 5.28 maf.
(b) Power generation
Water released by the hydropower plants returns to the river system. The
reservoirs are operated on priority bases only for irrigation. Recent increase
in thermal generation has reduced the potential conflicts between water
releases from reservoirs for hydropower generation and irrigation. Now most
of the annual storage is utilized for irrigation and not for hydropower, but
conflicts do arise at times.
(c) Drinking
Most of the rural and urban water is supplied from ground water through
tube wells and hand pumps except few cities like Karachi and
Islamabad/Pindi. Total urban and rural (domestic and commercial)
requirements estimated is 10-15% of the surface water, out of which 80%
return to the system, however with degraded quality. Net consumption is
normally about 2% of the total water available.
(d) Industry
Water is also utilized in Industries basically for cooling purposes and also in
manufacturing processes. This utility is less than 1%.
Shortage of water
As we all know that now a days our country is facing severe shortage of
water. There are two main reasons, one natural due to prolong drought---
which is beyond the control of a man, and the other due to the gross
negligence in the development and mis-management of water resources.
The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries is i41.67 maf, of
which 97% is used in agriculture and the remaining 3% for domestic and
Industrial purposes. Out of 141.67 maf, around 106 maf is annually diverted
in to one of the largest but in-efficient irrigation system. The remaining 36
maf goes into the sea unused – a total loss --. Out of 106 maf, diverted into
an extensive irrigation net work, more than 50% is lost during the
changeling and the field application before it reaches the crop root zone.
In the years when the rainfall is normal or above, the country generally does
not face any water shortage, where as in below average rainfall period it
does. This has happened just few weeks earlier. i was sitting with secretary
irsa, in connection of my vision, and he said that they are reducing the quota
of punjab and sind by 5% because of no rains and that the level of mangla
has gone below dead level. After three days i was again with him and he
said that now we are increasing the quota of all the provinces, because we
are in happy situation due to present heavy rains and snowfalls. The
planners, it is assumed, are responsible to foresee and carry out effective
water resources development and management planning to meet the future
challenges. However, sadly this is not practiced which ultimately lands the
state into such uncalled situations.
Impact on economy / society
As I said earlier that agriculture is our backbone and the water flowing in the
channels to the crops is its blood line—and if there is no or less water then
we should be prepared for facing problems economically as well as socially.
According to the estimates of federal government, the agriculture sector
would suffer a loss of about Rs. 90 billion because of drought. Since
agriculture has remained a major source of shouldering the already crippled
economy, it has a vital role to play particularly in terms of food security and
employment of the ever-burgeoning population of the country. It contributes
around 35 % to the gnp and employs about 44% of labor force. It also
contributes 65% of our export earning. The adverse effects of water
shortage on agriculture would have a spiraling effect on the prevailing level
of poverty.
(a) Less water means less agricultural yields and to fulfill the food
requirements of the nation, we will be dependent on other countries.
(b) Raising livestock is the main source of livelihood of rural areas. it is also
an important economic activity, which contributes 9.7% of gdp, will be
affected due to shortage of water.
(c) Orchards of pakistan bring home a healthy amount of foreign exchange,

which can be affected due water shortage.
(d) Due to less production of main crops, which are wheat, cotton, sugar
cane and rice, the Industries related to them will suffer adversely.
(e) Then due to drought and more dependency on ground water for
irrigation, the water table will go down, and this will cause water constrains
to the population.
(f) Less agricultural outputs will compel people to head towards urban areas
for jobs, which will increase the unemployment further.
(g) The distribution of water is controlled from the center by irsa (Indus river
system authority) as per 1991 agreement between the provinces. Now the
shortage of water will cause disputes between the provinces, which may
cause harm to the national integrity.
Analysis
Pakistan is one of the poorest countries of the world, where as on the other
hand it is one of the richest in its population increasing capabilities. Our
population has surpassed the 140 million mark by now and is still increasing
at an alarming rate of about 3%, which definitely needs to be checked. On
the other hand the growth rate of agriculture is decreasing due to water
shortages. To keep up the pace of agricultural growth comparable to
population growth, we must bring additional lands under cultivation. in order
to achieve the required growth targets in agriculture, we needed an
estimated amount of 149 maf in 2000 and will need 215 maf year 2013 and
about 277 maf by year 2025. this scenario warns that pakistan has already
has slided from a water happy country to a water scarce country in 1994 and
already shortage of over 40 maf persists, which may increase to a shortage
of 108 maf and 151 maf by years 2013 and 2025 respectively. This water
shortage has been threatening the federal structure of the country. Our
reluctance to treat water as an economic good and inadequate recognition of
the environmental concerns associated with current practices have led us
towards this catastrophic situation. Further more its remedy is an urgent
one, otherwise it could trigger water riots and finally lead to social, if not
political, catastrophe. Since no additional water is available, it is the time to
recognize our responsibilities and start taking steps in the right direction.
So for overcoming the water crises following steps are recommended
Recommendations
The national water strategy must be based upon two essential elements
covering
 Water developments
 Water management
The water development strategy is largely based upon construction of new

storage reservoirs where as the water management strategy will help in
reducing the present losses.
Water development
In this construction of following dams should start immediately:-
(a) Chasha dam
It would be located 200 miles upstream of terbela on river Indus. its gross
storage capacity would be 7.3 maf and live storage 5.7 maf. Its power
generation capacity would be 3360 mw.
(b) Kalabagh dam
Kalabagh dam site is located 132 miles down stream of Terbela. Its gross
storage would be 6.1 maf. It would have a power generation of 3600 mw.
Here I shall further suggest that the construction of Kalabagh be under
taken only, once all the provinces are convinced and willing to cooperate.
(c) Thal reservoir
It would be located on the right bank of Chashma – Jhelum link canal, along
the western bank of river Jhelum. Its reservoir would have gross capacity of
2.3 maf.
(d) Raised Mangla dam
in this the present Mangla dam would be further raised by 40 ft and thus
increasing its gross capacity to 9.5 maf. In addition, its power generation
capacity would be increased by 15%.
(e) Mirani dam
The dam is located on Dasht River about 48 km of Turbat town in Mekran

division. Its main objective is to provide water for irrigation. Its gross
storage is 0.30 maf.
(f) Gomalzam dam
It is located at Khajori Kach on Gomal River in South Waziristan, about 75

miles from Dera Ismail Khan. Its main objective will be to irrigate 132000
acres of land, power generation of 17.4 mw and flood control.
From these projects we shall be able to store additional 20maf of water.
Water management
Managing water resources is the need of time, and we in Pakistan already

short of water, must chalk out a strategy. In this endeavor can be made to
save around 1.3 maf of water from existing losses. following is
recommended in this regard:-
 Presently the losses occur due to seepage, infiltration and leakages

etc. seepage results in water logging and these losses can be reduced
or eliminated by lining the canals.
 In addition, people should be educated to conserve water by
cooperation.
 Further more government should make laws on water conservation,
like many western countries.
 The second largest contribution to the total water available comes
from the groundwater sources. This source has been exploited and
very well used by public and private tube wells. It can still provide
over nine maf of water. This source can be exploited and judiciously
used for irrigation purposes. How ever in some areas ground water is
rapidly depleting due to excessive pumpage, authorities should take
control in such areas to save them from depleting.
 Efforts be made to convert the present rotation based irrigation
system to demand oriented system.
 The modern irrigation techniques, that is trickling, sprinkling etc,
which have a potential to improve water distribution and its utilization.
 Authorities should take appropriate steps to curb the illegal extraction
of water and ensure its equitable distribution.
 Presently irrigation department has failed to stop the illegal theft and
extraction; thus irrigation distribution system needs to be privatized
through water user associations.
 In addition, water, now-a-days is supplied to farmers at a very
negligible cost and that is why they do not treat water as a precious
resource; therefore there is a need to increase the water prices to
make irrigators realize the importance of this asset.
 Farmer’s organizations, water user association, and private sector be
involved in construction, operation, and maintenance of the irrigation
system. Such associations are conceived as a mechanism for creating
a cooperative frame work for improvement of watercourses.
Conclusion
The problems faced by the water sector in the country are many, acute and
serious and it is also known that we can generate about 83 maf of more
water. Therefore, building of more reservoirs and an effective management
strategy are the needs of time. Also implementation of the recommendations
will enable the country to meet the challenges, and achieve the objectives of
integrated, efficient, environmentally and financially sustainable
development and management of limited water resources. At the same time
it will enable us to utilize every drop of our water for our bright future.
Water Crisis in Pakistan
Written by: Other Writer on July 24, 2018.

By: Qurrat-Ul-Ain Rehman
Act before it’s too late
Water is one of the basic necessities of life. No life could have been possible on the planet Earth,
had there been no water. However, it is a sad reality that we do not bother to take proper
measures for securing and preserving our natural resources unless crises start knocking at our
door. Although water is one of the most important natural resources we have, the world is facing
a grave crisis of its scarcity, owing mainly to the global warming and Pakistan is also no
exception in this regard. At present, Pakistan is confronting a number of issues but perhaps the
most daunting of them is the shortage of water. This problem is aggravating with each passing
day. According to a recently released International Monetary Fund report, Pakistan ranks third
among countries facing water shortage. One of the major reasons behind this issue is absence of
proper measures to conserve water. Around 30 million acre feet (MAF) of water is wasted due to
poor management. Economic cost of this water is in billion dollars. Due to this issue, the per
capita availability of water in Pakistan is consistently on the decline. Pakistan possesses only a
thirty-day water-storage capacity. Besides, the Pakistan Council of Research on Water Resources
(PCRWR) has warned that Pakistan would reach absolute water scarcity by 2025.
There are a number of reasons behind the shortage of water in Pakistan. Before blaming the
rulers and concerned authorities, we must blame ourselves for our carelessness and slackness in
saving water. We don’t take proper measures while using water for household activities. That is
why the gap between availability and demand of water has increased manifolds. We should turn
all the taps off while we are not using water. Moreover, there is an urgent need to educate the
masses on proper use of water. The role of media is imperative in this regard. TV channels
should air different programmes to create awareness among the people. The need of the time is
to take steps at individual level.
On a larger scale, we must construct new water reservoirs and construction of dams is also
imperative to overcome the issue of water shortage. We have to realize that this acute problem
cannot be overcome unless dams are constructed. Unfortunately, our government is not paying
heed to this fact. Currently, there are only 150 dams of above 49-foot height in Pakistan.
Deteriorating situation of our dams is another worrisome phenomenon. Mangla Dam and Tarbela
Dam became operational in 1967 and 1974 respectively, and these are now reaching dead level.
But, not even a single major reservoir has been constructed since Tarbela. Now, there is a dire
need to construct major reservoirs in Pakistan. In addition, the construction of small dams in
different suitable areas could help us overcome the chronic issues of energy crisis and water
scarcity. It is worth mentioning here that the current per capita availability of water in Pakistan
has reached 1016 cubic metres and if it falls below 1000 cubic metres, Pakistan will become a
water-scarce country.
Sometimes, expensive and improper ways of irrigation lead to wastage of water. A proper
irrigation system with strict checks and balances could prevent this menace. In many areas of our
country, water is stolen to irrigate lands. So, in order to curb this problem, modern irrigation and
agricultural equipments and gadgets are most pressingly needed. Their application is also
inevitable to cope with the shortage of water which not only destroys land but also affects the
production of crops. This further burdens the national economy.
Population of Pakistan is also increasing rapidly and, as a result, the need for water too is on the
rise. So, we need more energy and more water for domestic, agricultural and industrial use. On
the other hand, the supply of water is decreasing amidst an exponential growth in its demand. At
present, around 40 percent Pakistanis do not have access to clean drinking water. Furthermore,
the non-availability of water causes a number of diseases and problems. Extremely poor
performance of the solid waste management authorities is also causing water pollution in many
areas.
So, amidst all these issues, the federal and provincial governments must take proper, immediate
measures. There is an urgent need to formulate and implement pragmatic policies and while
drawing up them, the solution to this problem must be the top priority of all the future
governments as well. At this point, Pakistan is gradually running short of water. It is an alarming
situation for all of us. Constructions of new dams, plantations of trees, responsible use of
household water, awareness campaigns, conducting seminars at institutional level, effective role
of the authorities concerned and of the media are some factors that can help us solve this gigantic
problem. Water pricing and the distribution of water should be done by adopting adequate policy
measures. We need to realize these things before visualizing a better future.
Water scarcity in Pakistan – causes, effects

and solutions
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ZAHID IQBAL - Water is the most important element necessary for human beings, animals,
insects, plants and for earth as a whole. Sources of water available in Pakistan are rainfall,
surface water available in rivers and underground water.
After the Indus Basin Treaty with India, water of only two rivers i.e. Jhelum and Chenab is
available to Pakistan while the availability of water in the remaining three rivers i.e. Ravi, Sutlej
and Bias depends on the will of India.
The construction of dams and barrages by India over River Chenab and River Jhelum in
violation of the Indus Basin Treaty created the problem of water shortage for Pakistan which is
becoming more and more severe with the passage of time. According to the UNO Report,
Pakistan is at the 7th position in the list of countries, which are facing water crisis. Presently,
Pakistan has a surface water of 153 MAF and underground water resources of only 24 MAF and
Pakistan may face water shortage of 33 MAF during the year, 2025.
The population of Pakistan is increasing at a rate of 3.2%. Presently, we have to feed more the
200 million people and if population increase rate remains the same, then it will be almost
double by the year,2025 and hence, the consumption of the underground water will also add to
the problem which will be further aggravated due to factors such as global warming and other
climate changes.
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According to a research study on water resources of Pakistan, approximately water having

economic values of $70 billion is being thrown into sea every year due to non-construction of
water reservoirs. A water starved country, which has the foreign reserve of only $20 billion,
can’t afford throwing water of economic value of $70 billion every year into sea.
Study of Pakistan Counsel of Research on the water resources of Pakistan (PCRWR) revealed
that rapid depletion of ground water may soon worsen the water crisis in Pakistan’s major cities,
causing a drought-like situation. Such crisis needs to be taken on war footings; otherwise, a large
section of Pakistan’s population, especially those living in big cities, will be facing severe
shortage of water.
Due to excessive pumping of underground water, the quality of underground water is being
contaminated rapidly with heavy metals like Copper, Nickel and Cobalt etc, which are the causes
of spread of Hepatitis in the people of Pakistan, especially in those living in big cities.
The problem of water shortage in Pakistan has gained the momentum as our water storage
capacity is only for 30 days, and Pakistan has the 4th highest rate of water use in the world. It
simply means that water intensity rate – the amount of water in cubic meters used per unit of
GDP is the world highest and no country’s economy is more water intensive than that of
Pakistan.
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As regards the remedial measures needed to overcome this horrible water shortage in Pakistan,
steps required to be taken immediately include:
* Preparation of country's water policy;
* Construction of water reservoirs;
* National Action Plan to be formulated for judicious use of available water.
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* Reduction in water losses through seepage, leaching and percolation by lining of Canals,
Distributaries and Water Channels.
* Controlled over pumping of underground water and over irrigation practices.
* By increasing the water use efficiency of the crops by switching from conventional agriculture
to conservative agriculture.
* By adopting water use efficient methods of irrigation like Sprinkler, Basin and Drip irrigation.
Water crisis
Written by: JWT Desk on July 3, 2018.
Myth or reality?
Ever since the industrial revolution, human ingenuity has allowed water, the elixir of human life,
to flow even in the most arid landscapes. Ever since the 19th century, water was no longer a
mystical force to be worshipped but a commodity to be exploited. The United Nations (UN)
Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights declared that the human right to water
entitled everyone to sufficient, safe, acceptable, physically accessible and affordable water for
personal and domestic use. Pakistan has so far failed to guarantee its citizens that right.
South Asia scholar Anatol Lieven observed that water shortages present the greatest future threat
to the viability of Pakistan as a state and society. Some may disregard Lieven’s statement as
overblown but none can disagree with the underlying premise. According to the World
Resources Institute, Pakistan is among the five leading countries that face extremely high water
shortage and low access to safe drinking water. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water
Resources observed that Pakistan touched the water stress line in 1990, crossed the water
scarcity line in 2005 and warned that the country would reach absolute water scarcity by 2025.
Presently, Pakistan is mired in a hoard of issues and water scarcity lies at the heart of Pakistan’s
economic and energy conundrum. The prevailing water crisis threatens the very fabric of
Pakistan’s society and the state’s survival itself.
The water shortage capacity of the reservoirs available at Tarbela, Chashma and Mangla has
been dramatically reduced due to the increase in silt deposits over the years. Additionally, the
lack of a national and coherent agriculture policy not only contributes to the wastage of water but
also allows the growth of high water consuming crops during arid seasons. Pakistan’s irrigation
system is characterised by grossly inadequate infrastructure investment with most of its budgetry
allocation going towards a bloated water bureaucracy and hence starving the sector of tools that
would allow it to efficiently use the elixir.
The Khanpur Dam was built to cater to water needs of the twin cities but the growth of
unregulated industry allowed the demand to outstrip the supply
The five year economic policy cycles have given rise to rapid increase in industrial production
without the efficient use of water. For example, the Khanpur Dam was built to cater to water
needs of the twin cities but the growth of unregulated industry allowed the demand to outstrip the
supply. Although, the present dams boast laudable infrastructures, what Pakistan requires is new
dams and water reservoirs such as the ‘controversial’ Kalabagh Dam. The feudal consortia that
that has long overshadowed Pakistan’s policy making focuses on personal interest and does not
allow the Kalabagh Dam to be built so that their personal agricultural estates are not hampered.
The chief justice of Pakistan took Suo Motu action pertaining to the Kalabagh Dam. He was in
turn blamed for institutional overreach by the feudal minded aristocrats and the judge had to
clarify that he had only taken the action to ensure that Pakistan did not face irreparable water
shortages.
Similarly, retreating glaciers, rising sea levels, increased droughts and frequent heat episodes
have failed to convince policy makers of the need to formulate a national water policy. The
evidence for ‘their’ lack of interest can be gauged from the fact that the National Security
Council has so far not considered water security as detrimental to national security.
India presents an overwhelming threat to Pakistan’s water resources. Abdul Sattar remarks in the
book, Pakistan’s foreign policy, that the Indus Water Treaty allows India the construction of
‘run-off-the-river’ power plants but restrains it to construct dams on western tributaries of the
Indus. Regardless, India not only managed to complete the Baghlihar Dam project but also
recently completed the Kishanganga Dam. The Dam is not only a violation of the 1960 treaty
between the two neighbours but also depletes the water levels of rivers flowing into Pakistan.
Pakistan has taken the issue up with the World Bank but as always this was a crisis-driven ad-
hoc decision. The issue should have been taken up as soon as India’s plans were revealed.
Similarly, except for an agreement pertaining to the Helmand River between Pakistan and
Afghanistan, no treaty exists between the two countries that govern the sharing of water. This
could prove to be fatal for Pakistan as it uses an estimated seventeen million acre feet of water
coming in from Afghanistan. Media reports have revealed that India is helping Afghanistan
construct several multi-purpose water projects and dams on the Kabul River, which would
inevitably lower the peak run-off and quantity of water entering Pakistan.
Pakistan faces unprecedented rates of water scarcity. The state’s indigenous and municipal water
resources are inadequate and undeniably under threat. What is required is that policy makers
must rise above petty political, domestic and class interests. Men and women sitting in the halls
of power, who are charged with the protection and governance of Pakistan, must protect it from
the present abyss that Pakistan’s presently finds itself in. Pakistan is already parched and if
meaningful action is not taken, it will soon find itself without enough elixir to power agriculture
and industry or even clean drinking water for human consumption. The state must realise that the
water crisis is not a myth. It is a reality. A reality that has been staring Pakistan in the face for
decades.
The Ticking Time Bomb
Pakistan is losing groundwater at a rate of 1 metre per year, the daily Dawn reported. If
the government does not take action, Pakistan will run out of water by 2025, Pakistan
Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) issued warning to the government.
Pakistan’s per capita water availability has declined to 908 cubic metres, placing Pakistan
on the threshold of being a water-scarce country, the daily Nation reported. Per capita
designed live water-storage capacity available in Pakistan is 121 cubic metres per person
which is higher than Ethiopia only, UN Development Programme reported in its December
2016 report. These are but a few reports that unequivocally signal the imminent threat of
water insecurity that would devastate our agriculture and wreak havoc on our industries.
Pakistan’s journey from a water-abundant country in 1950 to a water-stressed one today is
painful and calls for remedial measures on a war footing as a former IRSA chairman,
Mohammad Raqib Khan, had implored the government to freeze all PSDP, impose water
emergency and utilize all state resources in developing infrastructure for water storage.
Water is not only for life … water is life. This statement by the Secretary-General of the United
Nations underscores the importance of water for socioeconomic development of a country. The
importance of water increases manifold in countries like Pakistan where economies are agrarian
and depend heavily on the sustainable availability of water to spur economic growth and
development.
Agriculture is the lifeline of Pakistan’s economy; accounting for 19.5 percent of the gross
domestic product, employing 42.3 percent of the labour force and providing raw material for
several value-added sectors. In addition to its fundamental importance in agriculture, the
sustained flow of surface water in the Indus River and its tributaries is crucial also for power-
generation. Out of our energy mix, about 29.4 percent of total power is being generated from
environment-friendly hydel sources. Water security is essential for halting seawater intrusion,
conservation of flora and fauna in the Indus Basin and regeneration and protection of riparian
forests. This vitality of availability of water in national development warrants thorough
discussion so as to highlight the underlying factors that are responsible for looming doomsday-
like scenario.
Tremendous stress on both demand and supply sides is causing shortage of water. On the supply
side, the climate change and its repercussions in the form of erratic monsoon patterns, floods and
droughts, the unregulated and unchecked exploitation of groundwater – we are extracting 50 to
55 million acre feet (MAF) groundwater annually – limited storage capacity due to poor and
dilapidated infrastructure for water storage – we have yet to construct any mega hydro reservoir
since the commissioning of Mangla and Tarbela in 1967 and 1970’s respectively – and centuries-
old unlined canal system that is causing a colossal loss of 24MAF from canal head to farm gate
are compounding the issue of water availability in Pakistan. The already limited water resources
are also being rendered unfit for domestic, agricultural and industrial consumption due to
unhindered mixing of contaminated agricultural runoff, untreated industrial effluents and
household waste in rivers and canals.
On the demand side, hydel sources in Pakistan are facing extreme pressure due to rapid
population growth, water-intensive farming practices, unregulated industrialization and fast-
paced urbanization. Due to unbridled population growth, we will face 1.6 times rise in demand
for water for domestic use. Water-intensive farming practice such as plantation of sugarcane and
rice and growing of 2-3 crops per year is complicating the water-availability issue. For the past
two and a half decades, the policymakers have been struggling to cope with the issues of water
supply and contamination of water due to industrial effluents. Owing to these reasons, we are on
the verge of becoming a water-deficient nation as the supply of water is decreasing amidst a
growing demand.
The shortage of water would have far-reaching implications at domestic as well as international
level. The water-scarcity-driven repercussions would be wide-ranging and could pose threat to
national security, interprovincial harmony, social and economic growth and law and order
situation.
The Indus Basin Treaty was signed between Pakistan and India in order to settle the water-
related disputes amicably. Though this agreement has proved effective in preventing a war on
water issue between the two nuclear-armed states, India’s BJP-led, ultranationalist Modi
government is hell bent on tearing this treaty apart to appease its Hindutva constituencies. Being
the upper riparian country, India enjoys advantageous position and is stubbornly adamant to
construct dams on the western rivers – the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab. The decades-old
controversies surrounding the Rattle Dam on Chenab and Kishanganga Dam on the Neelum
River could spiral out of control and result in a nuclear-standoff with India. This security concern
multiplies due to the fact that the official broker of IWT, i.e. the World Bank, has failed to bring
forth any consensus solution and Pakistan has requested it to refer the case to the International
Court of Arbitration. Although these issues can be solved diplomatically, the ultranationalist
Narendra Modi cannot be expected to let Pakistan prosper with unrestricted availability of water.
The precarious interprovincial harmony could easily be jeopardized due to the water
apportionment disputes. In the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991, it was decided that
114.35MAF water would be apportioned among the provinces while taking the capacity of
proposed Kalabagh and Bhasha dams into account. Now that 26 years have passed, we have yet
to even launch any of these projects. The Kalabagh dam has been subjected to provincialism and
the current government has only been able to purchase half of land for Bhasha dam out of 37,400
acres required for the project. Now, 101.84MAF of water is being diverted into canal system, so
IRSA has to share the shortage of 13MAF among the provinces. Given that this shortage is
already causing serious irritants in smooth distribution of water among the provinces, imagine
what would happen when the federal government will reduce the current allocation substantially.
The looming water-scarcity is bound to further fuel mistrust among smaller provinces against
Punjab and this could be gravely damaging for the federation of Pakistan.
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. The role of agri-sector and its allied
subsectors in strengthening exports and boosting foreign exchange reserves is second to none.
The poor performance of agriculture during financial years 2013-14 and 2015-16 plunged the
national economic growth below 5 percent. All the subsectors of agriculture – crops, livestock,
fisheries, forestry, etc. – exclusively depend on sustained, cheap availability of water to help
boost the GDP growth. The food and nutritional security of the citizens of Pakistan is also
contingent upon safe drinking water. Although we are yet to become a water-scarce country,
shortage of water, coupled with water-borne diseases, is already taking a heavy toll. We are
facing a loss of 1.44 percent of total GDP due to the aforementioned factors.
The looming water insecurity is fast emerging as the biggest concern among the policymakers of
Pakistan. The issue is complex, and tackling it, essentially, warrants a multidimensional
approach. We have to impose water emergency and must take this issue head on. The areas that
demand immediate attention are efficient management, effective governance, holistic legislative
and administrative reforms, result-oriented diplomacy and sustained awareness campaigns.
Mismanagement is the foremost reason of dwindling water supply. We have utterly-unacceptable

conveyance losses. The British-established irrigation system is inadequate to cater for the needs
of over 207 million people. The unlined canal system, abysmally low 41.5 percent water
efficiency, flood irrigation, unregulated groundwater exploitation and unnecessary environmental
flow of 26MAF to ward off seawater-based intrusion and conserve marine flora and fauna are
severely limiting the ability of water resources to meet the ever-increasing demands. What we
need urgently is bringing agri-sector under the tax net and pricing the canal water as it is heavily
undervalued. The current tariff system (Abiana) can only recover 24 percent of total annual
operational and maintenance cost of the canal system. Obviously, this poor cost of recovery is
the principal reason behind prevailing inefficiencies and financially unsustainable irrigation
system. We will have to employ innovative urban water-management methods such as recycling,
wastewater management and rainwater harvesting, as well as water treatment to ensure the
required level of quantity and quality of water in major urban centres.
Effective governance through capacity building of state institutions responsible for water
development, conservation and distribution must be an important pillar of the strategy aimed at
countering water insecurity. Modernization of observation infrastructure, data management and
forecasting system would help IRSA to decide allocation of provincial share on scientific basis,
the empowerment of WAPDA and Minister for Climate Change through providing autonomous
working environment, and sustained financing would help them to launch new public welfare
projects, especially those related to water, overhauling of the provincial departments of
irrigation, agriculture, forestry and extension, would help increase the outreach of government
down to the farmer level and adoption of sustainable urbanization pattern could also be helpful in
saving the wastage of water in cities and towns.
Legal and administrative reforms embedded in organic National Water Policy, thus, become the
most pressing need of the time. We have yet to formulate a national water policy that deals
comprehensively on all facets of the issue of water. Although the Council of Common Interests
(CCI) has unanimously approved the first-ever National Water Policy of Pakistan recently, it
must include measures for enforcing water-pricing, increasing water-storage capacity (currently
less than 30 days against the minimum requirement of 120 days), controlling population growth,
improving water institutions and their management and applying strict regulations over
groundwater extraction.
Pakistan is comparatively weaker than India in water diplomacy. We have failed to convince the
World Bank about our genuine grievances. We first demanded neutral experts for resolution of
disputes but failed to achieve desired results. Our experience in Baglihar Dam and Kishanganga
Dam speaks volume about our abysmal diplomatic performance. Now that Rattle and
Kishanganga cases are pending before the World Bank, we must utilize all available resources to
emerge as victorious; otherwise, our already shrinking water resources would face Indian water
aggression on an unprecedented scale.
Public education campaign is also critically important as it would help government to inculcate
among the people the importance of water. People should be informed through advertisement
campaigns and public-relations programmes that the unnecessary use of water is against the
teachings of Islam because the Holy Prophet Muhammad (‫ ) ﷺ‬has instructed Muslims to use
water judiciously even for ablution. All forms of media – electronic, print and social – must be
utilized for spreading awareness on the importance of water.
Water is lifeline of Pakistan’s economy. It can be utilized as an engine of economic growth and
also as an agent for regional trade expansion. It is estimated that even if we achieve one billion
dollars output for every MAF used for agriculture, water economy has potential to increase the
share of agriculture from current $20 billion to $200 billion. The Indus Basin has the potential of
generating 59,000MW of clean energy against the current output of 6,500MW. It is never too
late to mend; we must not politicize the water-related issues and play politics over it; otherwise,
we will suffer irreparably.
Water crisis in Pak & its solutions
 June 22, 2018
3536
Abdul Ghani Chohan
AMONG all the looming challenges that Pakistan is facing, water crisis is the most critical
problem of the country. According to the world resource institute, the country is among the
leading five that face extremely high water scarcity and low access to safe drinking water and
sanitation. The United Nations Organization has categorized Pakistan amongst those few
unfortunate countries where water shortage destabilizes and jeopardises its existence in the next
few decades. In Pakistan, quarter to third of Pakistan’s population lacks access to safe drinking
water. Both the urban and rural areas suffer from water scarcity, water contamination and water-
borne diseases.
The serious crisis of water has remained unheeded and even the political parties do not bother to
make this issue in their manifestos. When the water crisis is talked of, the managing and
construction of dams get politicized. However, beyond the construction of new dams, the already
constructed dams are mismanaged. The mega dams of Pakistan at Tarbela and Mangla are 40
years old and their storage capacity is falling because of silting and sedimentation. They store
only 30 days of average water demand compared to 220 days for India. There are numerous
reasons that have given rise to water scarcity like lack of proper management of existing dams,
the antediluvian system of canals and barrages, mismanagement of water resources and policy
flaws.
According to the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, Pakistan may run dry if the
prevalent situation continues. Water is desperately needed for agriculture in rural areas.
Moreover, Pakistan’s water crisis is also glaringly apparent in its urban areas. Besides the
administrative flaws, Pakistan’s all-time enemy is all adding salt to sorrows. India has violated
Indus Water Treaty many times by building dams on western rivers. Its projects such as Bughlier
and Kishenganga Dam on Chenab and Jhelum rivers may eat up substantial portion of Pakistan’s
share of water. In this regard, Pakistan has lost its case in international court few days ago. Water
crisis has badly affected the agriculture sector of Pakistan. The agriculture sector, according to
latest Economic Survey of Pakistan, contributes 21 percent to total GDP of Pakistan.
Moreover, agriculture sector provides 47 percent employment to a total population of Pakistan.
Similarly, the majority of Pakistan’s export goods rely on agriculture i.e. 70 percent of the export
goods are agriculture products. This means that agriculture is the backbone of country’s
economy and agriculture sector is dependent on water. Thus the water scarcity results in severe
economic distress to country’s economy. Historically, the agriculture sector has played a very
monumental role in making country’s economy stabilized. This became possible due to
uninterrupted water availability in the country. According to a research study on water resources
of Pakistan, approximately water having economic values of $70 billion is being thrown into the
sea every year due to non-construction of water reservoirs. A water-starved country, which has
the foreign reserve of only $20 billion, can’t afford to throw water of mammoth economic value.
The politicians and analysts give credit to the policies of the then government. Few economists
and policy makers cite this in another way. Firstly the Indus Water Treaty was materialized in
1967 between arch-rivals India and Pakistan that facilitated water availability. Secondly, tube
wells were initiated to overcome water deficit. Pakistan is not only facing water scarcity but the
safe drinking water is also a dream in many urban areas. According to the recent report of
UNICEF, 53,000 Pakistani children die of many lethal diseases such as diarrhea after drinking
contaminated water each year. However, the worsening water crisis needs to be resolved for
economic stability and development. Far deeper changes are required to mitigate the water
deficiency.
For instance, Singapore follows the strategy of fours taps and Japan has invested heavily in
water-saving technology. Similarly, Pakistan has sufficient water around the year that needs to
be reserved rather it is left for spoilage and wastage. Many developing countries are adopting a
strategy of water-pricing that needs to be implemented in the country for better and efficient use
of water. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the development
of lesser levelling technology and furrow bed irrigation has resulted in saving 30 per cent of
water and has led to increasing water productivity by 25 per cent in Punjab. Its scope needs to be
widened across Pakistan to achieve water availability. Besides this according to Pakistan Council
for Research in Water Resources Pakistan has lost water worth $90billion since 2010 due to
floods. This can be attenuated by constructing mega but undisputed dams so that the country may
get the track of development ,progress and prosperity.
Water Crisis in Pakistan, its Impact on the

Economy and Potential Solutions.
 Level: AS and A Level
 Subject: Geography
 Topic: Human
 Word count: 1322
Water Crisis
Pakistan is one of the 30 countries of the world, facing an acute water deficiency, which is likely
to aggravate during the forthcoming decades. More then 80% of Pakistan lies in the arid and
semi-arid zones, characterized by highly erratic, unpredictable and low precipitation, excessive
evapo-transpiration and high summer temperatures. Coupled with uneven river flow, the climatic
vagrancy has placed Pakistan in a critical water supply environment. Presently Pakistan is going
worst draught and water crisis of its history which is likely to persist for few years. To
understand the magnitude of the water shortage and its impact on economy, some of the causes
are listed below.
In the years when rainfall is normal or above, the country generally does not face any water
shortage, where as in below average rainfall period it does. This has happened just few weeks
earlier.
As said earlier that now-a-days Pakistan is facing severe shortage of water. There are two
main reasons, one natural due to prolong drought which is beyond the control of a man, and the
other due to the gross negligence in the development and the mis-management of water
resources.
Causes of Water Crisis
Low Rainfall/Snow Fall Pakistan has entered into third lean period of precipitation. There had
been no incidence of floods since last three last years and dry spell is gradually at increase.
Reduction in storage Capacity Live storage in the available reservoirs is depleting due to silting
up. The existing storage reservoirs available at Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma are loosing storage
capacities at a rapid rate. The storage capacities of these reservoirs shall continue restricting in
the future years causing corresponding reduction in the available water resulting in serious
shortage of canal water during the lean flow periods of October-June each year.
Changing Crops Pattern Rice and Sugar-cane crops consume large quantity of water as compared
to Cotton and other crops of KHARIF. Good price and mushroom of sugar mills without any
master planning encouraged farmers to grow these crops even in the Arid Zone thus increasing
the demand of water manifolds.
Water Allowance Higher water allowance in certain districts is even creating drainage/salinity
problems. In Sindh, allocation of water per 1000 acres of canal command area, termed water
allowance is far greater than in Punjab.
Urbanization/Industrialization Growing urban-industrial use of water is also a contributory

factor. The Khanpur Dam constructed for urban water supply to twin cities of Islamabad and
Rawalpindi is becoming inadequate even before its supply could be started, population has
increased in geometric proportions.
Impact of Water Crisis on Economy
As we all know that agriculture is our backbone and the water flowing in the channels to the
crops is its blood line and if there is no or less water then we should be prepared for facing
problems economically and socially. According to the estimates of the federal government, the
agriculture sector would suffer a loss of about Rs.90 billion because of draught.
Since agriculture has remained a major source of shouldering the already crippled economy, it
has a vital role to play particularly in terms of food security and employment of the ever-
burgeoning population of the country. It contributes around 35% of the GNP and employees
about 44% of labor force. It also contributes 65% of our export earnings. The adverse effect of
water shortage on agriculture would have a spiraling effect on the prevailing level of poverty.
Food Security Less water means less agricultural yields and to fulfill the food requirements of
the nation we will be dependent to other countries. Import of food commodities from other
countries will result in more expenditure.
Livestock Problems Raising livestock is the main source of livelihood of rural areas. It is also an
important economic activity, which contributes 9.7% of GDP, will be affected due to shortage of
water.
Decrease in Orchards Export Orchards of Pakistan bring home a healthy amount of foreign
exchange, which can be affected due to water shortage.
Effect on Related Industry Due to less production of main crops, which are Wheat, Cotton,
Sugar-Cane and Rice, the industries related to them will suffer adversely.
Water Constraints for Population Due to drought and more dependency on ground water for
irrigation, the water table will go down, and this will cause water constraints to the population.
Unemployment Less agricultural outputs will compel people to head towards urban areas for
jobs, which will increase the unemployment further.
Dispute among Provinces The distribution of water is controlled from the centre by IRSA (Indus
River System Authority) as per 1991 agreement between the provinces. Now the shortage of
water will cause disputes between the provinces, which may cause harm to the national integrity.
Ground Water Shortage of surface water has put tremendous pressure on ground water. The draw
down phenomena is now being observed and water table has gone down. It is being affected on
two accounts;
 Over drawl by the user to compensate shortage.

 Reduced recharging owing to less surface flows.
Effect on National Harmony The worst impact of water shortage is that it is creating bitter
controversy among the provinces, which is affecting the national integration and creating
disharmony between provinces.
Analysis of the Situation
Pakistan is one of the poorest countries of the world, where as on the other hand it is one of
richest in its population increasing capabilities. Our population has surpassed the 140 million
mark by now and is still increasing at an alarming rate of about 3%, which is definitely needs to
be checked. On the other hand the growth rate of agriculture is decreasing due to water shortage.
To keep up the pace of agricultural growth comparable to population growth, we must bring
additional lands under cultivation.
In order to achieve required growth targets in agriculture, we will need an estimated amount of
215 maf of land in year 2013 and additional 277 maf of land by year 2025. But present water
shortage has been threatening the federal structure of the country. More land under cultivation
will result in more demand of water for crops.
Our reluctance to treat water as economic good and inadequate recognition of the environmental
concerns associated with current practices has led us to catastrophic situation. Further more its
remedy is an urgent one, otherwise it could trigger water riots and finally lead to social
catastrophe. Since no additional water is available, it is the time to recognize our responsibilities
and start taking steps in the right direction.
Suggestions and Recommendations
The national water strategy must be based upon two essential elements covering;
 Water Development
 Water Management
The water development strategy is largely based upon construction of new storage reservoirs,
where as the water management strategy will help in reducing the present losses.
Water Development
In this construction of following dams should start immediately;
 Kalabagh Dam
 Thal Reservoir
 Raised Mangla Dam
 Mirani Dam
 Gomalzam Dam
 Chashma Dam
Water Management
Managing water resource is the need of the time, and we in Pakistan already short of water, must
chalk out a strategy. Following is recommended in this regard;
 By lining the canals we can reduce the losses that occur due to seepage, infiltration and
leakage
 People should be educated to conserve water by cooperation.
 Govt. should make laws on water conservation as made by western countries.
 Efforts to convert the present rotation based irrigation system to demand oriented system.
 Modern irrigation techniques such as trickling and sprinkling should be applied.
Conclusion
Today our country is facing acute water shortage. Therefore, building of more reservoirs and an
effective management strategy are the needs of the time. Also implementation of the
recommendations will enable the country to meet the challenges, and achieve the objectives of
integrated, efficient, environmentally and financially sustainable development and management
of limited water resources. At the same time it will enable us to utilize every drop of our water
for our bright future.

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Water Crisis

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Thirsty Days Ahead: Pakistan’s Looming

By Muhammad Mohsin Raza

Indus Basin Irrigation System of Pakistan

Pakistan, a country of enchanting landscapes offers a combination of beaches, mountains,

Treaty Between Pakistan and India

Water Ability of the IBIS

The Economic Impact of Indus Basin Irrigation System

The agricultural produce, in addition to providing food security constitutes:

B. 70 percent of total export earnings

C. 54 percent employment of labour force

Current Problems and Recommendations

1. Increase plantation of fruit trees.

The Express Tribune > Pakistan > Punjab

Expert talk: Pakistan running dry fast, water

Expert talk: Pakistan running dry fast, water

Every drop matters : Lahore well on its way to running dry

LuanJingdongaBabarShahzadbAbbas AliChandiocImranHussaindGhulamNabieMuhammad ShahidIqbalf

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psrb.2016.09.002Get rights and content

Under a Creative Commons license

2. Current scenario of major field crops of Pakistan

1. Download full-size image

1. Download full-size image

Fig. 2. Yield of wheat crop in kg/ha, 1948–2015.

According to a report published by FAO (2000), approximately 40 percent of all food is

Fig. 3. Area under rice crops, 1948–2015.

1. Download full-size image

Fig. 4. Yield of rice crop in kg/ha, 1948–2015.

1. Download full-size image

Fig. 5. Area under cotton crops, 1948–2015.

Fig. 6. Yield of cotton crop in kg/ha, 1948–2015.

Adequate nitrogen fertilizer is applied as a chemical fertilizer in most developed countries.

Fig. 7. Area under maize crops, 1948–2015.

1. Download full-size image

Fig. 8. Yield of maize crops in kg/ha, 1948–2015.

In rural areas, sugarcane cultivation remains as an important segment of socioeconomic

1. Download full-size image

Fig. 9. Area under sugarcane crops, 1948–2015.

Fig. 10. Yield of sugarcane crop in kg/ha, 1948–2015.

3. Materials and methods

3.1. Model specification

Ln (AGRGDP) = Agricultural Gross Domestic Product per year in (million rupees)

Ln (OPCOTTON) = Output of Cotton in (000, tones)

Ln (OPMAIZE) = Output of Maize in (000, tones)

Ln (OPRICE) = Output of Rice in (000, tones)

Ln (OPWHEAT) = Output of Wheat in (000, tones)

3.2. Ordinary least square method

4. Results and discussion

Table 1. Results of ADF test.

AGRGDP −8.345884 −2.907660 0.0000 5 percent 1(1)

OPCOTTON −12.24537 −2.907660 0.0000 5 percent 1(1)

OPMAIZE −5.219132 −3.485218 0.0003 5 percent 1(1)

OPRICE −7.720744 −3.482763 0.0000 5 percent 1(1)

OPSUG −11.16237 −2.908420 0.0000 5 percent 1(1)

OPWHEAT −8.621440 −2.908420 0.0000 5 percent

Source: Author's own calculation using Eviews 9.

Table 2. Johansen co-integration test using trace statistics.

0.538858 110.1580 95.75366 0.0033 Nonea

0.380200 60.61891 69.81889 0.1167 At most 1

0.192242 30.00393 47.85613 0.8451 At most 2

0.171079 16.34043 29.79707 0.5468 At most 3

0.065258 4.332065 15.49471 0.8242 At most 4

0.000203 0.013018 3.841466 0.9090 At most 5

** Values are accurate.