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Why ILO Estimates Are Lower Than NSSO Figures PDF
Why ILO Estimates Are Lower Than NSSO Figures PDF
Jayan Jose Thomas, Associate professor of economics, IIT Delhi, said the unemployment situation is not
getting reflected on the GDP numbers.
“This might have something to do with the way we calculate GDP, especially, informal sector GDP," he
said. "It is estimated by the employment in informal sector times value added per worker in the informal
sector. But the estimate of employment in the informal sector is still based on an old estimate of
employment we have (based on NSSO survey on employment/ unemployment 2011-12). In that way we
assume that the employment in informal sector is growing as fast as that in the formal sector, when we
calculate the informal sector GDP, which is probably not the case. Especially, after demonetisation and
GST, the employment in the informal sector might have declined.”
It is clear that reliable data on jobs is a must for assessing the economic condition of a nation. NSSO data
is extensively used by various national and international organisations, including the ILO. Despite this,
NSSO’s quinquennial (once in every five years) surveys were discontinued after 2011-12, considering its
low frequency and time lag between data collection and availability of the results (as found out by the Task
Force appointed by the government).
After that, annual Labour Bureau (LB) surveys used to provide employment-unemployment data till 2015-
16. Even these surveys were eventually stopped, and a new regular employment-unemployment survey
namely, Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) was launched by the NSSO in 2017. It was the first PLFS
report, which got leaked a few months back, that showed an unemployment rate of 6.1 per cent, the highest
since 1972-73. The government responded to the report saying that it is not final or verified, but it hasn’t
scrapped the data altogether either.
It is yet to be seen when the report will be made public, considering that the results of the Lok Sabha
elections will be out on May 23rd.