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The End of Urban Planners PDF
The End of Urban Planners PDF
Abstract:
The use of automation tecnology has been recognized and used to various
extents by planners since the mid seventies. However, with recent advances in
modeling, Celluar Automata, Decision-Support Systems, Artificial Intelligence
and Expert Systems, the potentials for full fledged automation of the process has
been contemplated. The extent of the role planners as patrons of a professional
discipline has been raised, especially with the obvious dependence on systems
and software engineers for most of the design of such technology. Will we
witness one day a complete plan-making kit? Can the integration of GIS with
other technologies reach a level of sophistication to make the role of planners
similar to the role of data-entry staff in DBMS? This paper contemplates these
issues in the context of the analysis of three components: the potenial of
automation with the process in theory, the historical progression of automation
in planning exercises, and finally a comparative study between the opinions of
planners themselves in both North America and Egypt. It concludes with a list of
deductions on the actual threats and challenges that planners face and project
some role changes expected for planners to survive an e-world.
Keywords: City and Regional Planning, GIS and Planning Technology
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For correspondence: email: a_ismail@menanet.net
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Introduction
One line in planning theory defines planning as a basic human activity that is
“distinguished from other activities by the introduction of rationality into the
decision and policy making process” [1]. This approach has its roots in the
principles of technical reason and social rationality brought about with the
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introduction of the Scientific Method [8]. Building on that line of argument,
many planning scholars have challenged themselves with “ordering” the
planning process into a series of discrete steps and devising ways to
systematically model the way a planner should proceed in order to complete his
assigned task. As it cuts across many disciplines, planning has drawn expertise
from many fields. Particular advances in systems theory and cybernetic have
encouraged this modular approach to planning, which today has paved the way
for the full-scale modeling and integration of sophisticated software and
computerization into the process [5].
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1. The Potential for Standardizing Planning in Theory
The essence of the planning approach is its clear emphasis on the mechanics
of the process. This type of conceptualization rests on the assumption that
planning thought and action occurs without reference to a particular object or
societal context. Procedural planning is thus not only “contentless” and
“contextless”, but proposes that it can be scientifically modeled. These features
constitute the basic elements of the rational comprehensive approach as
conceptualized by Altshuler (1965); and Faludi (1973) and modeled by Thomas
(1982) as shown in Fig. 2.
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SELECTOR
In this model, Faludi identifies three basic units in the planning process.
The receptor, the selector and the effector. The purposeful individual/agency
surveys the environment as an area of action and as a set of constraints to action,
draws from his memory of strategies and images to create a comprehensive list
of possible courses of action. The selector then sets-out to select the best one
that fits his goals and in the process receives continuous feed back on the results
of his action.
The systematic way in which the planning process is viewed lends itself
easily to standardization and of computerized modeling. Most of the tasks of the
survey unit can today be accomplished by Remote Sensing and networking links
to census and other data gathering agencies. Information Technology and the
Internet allow incredible public participation in the setting of societal objectives,
particularly using open platform GIS and the like. Multiautomation, Cellular
Automata and Expert Systems simulate the decision-making environment or the
selector. Considerable research and work has already been done in that regard,
see for instance Kellog (1997), Cecchini and Rizzi (2001), and Wanatabe et al
(2001). Volumes of statistical data about the past and the present can be
regressed into future trends and numbers. Quantitative linear or non-linear
models may provide and have provided the framework for a number of pareto-
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optimal alternatives. Finally, Real-Time GIS and Remote Sensing again assist
the issuing of permits and other development control functions of the effector.
The process is not only modelable and feasible, but is implicitly objective. By
separating the political content of planning from the technical one, planners have
elevated themselves above accusations of subjectivity and bias.
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established at a "coarse" level, and then redone at a more refined (fine) scale,
after land uses were allocated. The novelty of the approach was the use of
situation criteria. These were inter-land use relationships, an impressive attempt
to include interdependence. However, observe that this was done outside of the
formal model, since land uses needed to be first allocated using the economic
optimization model.
DEVELOP DATABASE
SIZE REQUIREMENTS
CREATE SCHEMATIC
DESIGNS
REFINE DESIGNS
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The GIS model for Land Capability Analysis was the first in a four-phase
process. It used data complied in "national resource database" from integrated
surveys, high resolution satellite data (thematic maps) and derived indicators
(such as indicator species) to assess the "unrealized production potential by land
use alternative and location" [17]. This output was then used as the input for the
next phases: Land Evaluation, National and Regional Feasibility Assessment
and finally the Development Planning and Policy Analysis. In the final phase a
GIS simulation was done of the impacts, benefit/cost of the policies and
repeating the LSA using these as new variables (Fig. 4).
Physical Resource Production Attributes
LAND EVALUATION
IMPLEMENT-
NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ATION
FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT
DEVELOPMENT
PLANNING
AND
POLICY MAKING
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1. LSA MODEL (inside a GIS)
VALIDATION
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Figure 6 - Wanatabe et al (2001) GIS-based PSS for Makassar, Indonesia
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investment opportunities and locations, with respect to a specified budget. The
system also produces thematic maps, which reveal correlations between
population and various economic facilities or economic indicators, including
populations served by different facilities. Such an attempt does not include the
necssary elements of automation of a plan preparation process. It merely helps
public servants respond to investor’s queries.
In 2000, a GIS model to support the preparation of the Master Plan for
Kharga City by defining the main direction growths. Theme maps describing
different land-uses for 7322 land parcels, each of them joined with its attribute
record in the database. The process was designed using the model shown in
figure 7[14].
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What the Planners Think
The third and final axis of analysis was of planner’s own perception of their
professional future. A questionnaire form designed to solicit the opinions was
distributed to planners primarily in Egypt and North America. While the focus
was to test the perception of the threat posed by increased automation injection
in the planning process, other factors were also added in order to neutralize bias.
The intention was to be able to analyze responses both by subject matter and
then by country (Egypt vis-a-vis the US). Under the assumptions of the
Procedural Planning theory, would planners using technical rationality and
methodological tools be affected by their context? Egypt is good example of
how western theories dominated the planning
practice under the influence of returning 1) How do you view the future of city
planners as a profession (over the
Egyptian planners who studies in the US and next 10-15 years)?
a) Promising
Europe at the time when Procedural Planning b) Unchanged
became the dominant theory in the sixties. c) Challenged/Threatened
d) Do not know
Since then, the profession became legitimized
by the Physical Planning law of 1973 which 2) What, in your view is the biggest
challenge to the future of the
established that all cities must have a master profession?
plan and that a national planning agency a) Globalization
b) Technology/ Automation of the
(called GOPP) would supervise and organize process (e.g. GIS)
c) Budget cuts to local government
the procedure by which the plan is made. The d) Transfer to Market
major change that happened was the e) Other .........
introduction of technologies such as GIS and 3) I am a:
RS in the nineties. However, whereas the a) Planner working with local/central
government
theory and methods remained unquestioned, b) Planner working with private
the tools (and society) changed. consulting
c) Planning educator
The questionnaire was distributed both by d) private citizen with interest in
planning
hand and by email. Planners were asked to e) Other .........
respond to three questions only as shown in Box 1. The Questionnaire Sheet
box 1. The survey resulted in 59 completed
forms, 20 from North America, 35 from Egypt
and 4 from Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa (which were discarded). Over
half the respondents were planners working with local government while 25%
were academics. Of the total 25% were using GIS in their work.
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Perceptions of the Future
The largest majority of planners were not optimistic about the future of their
profession. In fact, 43% felts it was either threatened or challenged (Fig. 8).
Prospects for jobs in the local/central government may be constantly threatened
by budget cuts and the lack of confidence in planning, as some comments
indicate:
“. [I also believe that], at least in the USA, planners will be working more and
more as consultants. They will be getting "work" not "jobs" anymore, as government
resources become scarce”
Joseli Macedo, US
Jim Moore, US
Many surveyed planners felt that the profession is challenged by three major
factors namely budget constraints, technology and transfer to market (Fig. 9).
“[The] Transfer to Market [is a major threat]- especially the idea of having
consultants able to assess applications who also submit planning applications. It will
be 'scratch my back' time”
Others believed that the future will be either promising or both challenged
and promising at the same time. Sometimes, the same reasons that were cited for
the profession being challenged were also used to explain why it was promising.
For example, market competitiveness and technology. It was noted that many of
the factors cited fall under one category that was called adaptation. Planners
were increasingly referring to current hot-issues such as the environment, smart
growth, and new methods and tools to indicate that it all depended on the
successful internalizing of these issues.
“The contribution of urban planning to urban competitiveness will make it
more important in the private sector. But the legitimacy of planning as government
control of private action and as an instrument of redistribution will continue to be
challenged; this will weaken the profession. [The biggest challenge to the future of the
profession is the] planners' past contributions to environmental/economic problems
and the need to reverse our directions -- the planners that do [so] will thrive.”
Peter B. Meyer, US
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“Planning will become both more specialized and more focused. The future
will force planners to become experts rather than generalists, thus their role will
eventually change”
Shawki Shabaan, Egypt
Figure 9. Response to Q. 2
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Fig. 10. Responses to Q.1 by Country
NA Planners Egyptian
Planners
Challenged Promising
40% 45% Challenged Promising As is
43% 31% 20 %
Technology Technology
13% 36%
Various Transfer to
Reasons Market
50% 27%%
Fig. 12. Tree Mapping of NA Responses Fig. 13. Tree Mapping of Egypt Responses
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The Impact of Context
Location
How does variations in place affect the planners’ perception of their future?
Sample answers from both North America (the US and Canada) and Egypt were
isolated and compared. The results shown indicate that there are in fact
differences. Whereas 45% of NA planners felt the future was promising, only
31% of Egyptian planners believed so (Fig 10). The biggest challenges differ
significantly between them too. Whereas NA planners felt it was the adaptation
and budget that pose the greatest challenge, Egyptians felt it was automation
(Fig 11). Even when respondents from both NA and Egypt agreed that it was
challenged, the majority of NA felt it was the transfer to market that posed the
biggest challenge (60%), whereas it was Automation and technology in the
Egyptian case (Fig. 12&13).
Familiarity with IT
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Figure 14 - Responses to Q.1 by IT Planners
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Conclusion
The fact that planners feel more challenged by market forces, budget cuts and
adaptation to environmental, political and social needs of their society indicate
that planning cannot not be an exercise in techniques, but should become a
living and pulsing part of its society, internalizing its needs and adapting its
techniques to the problem at hand. Planners in the US have been in part more
successful because they were more ready to evaluate, adapt , and improve their
profession. It is true that many of the vogues of every decade end up somewhat
rehtorical, but changes have in fact been observed in the educational and
professional conduct of planners.
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REFERENCES:
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Practice: A Reappraisal” in Environment and Planning, vol. 9
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Systems, And Applied Models In Resource Assessment, Economic
Development And Policy Analysis" In PE&RS, Vol. 58, No. 8, August
1992.
18. Thomas, M. J. (1982) “The Procedural Planning Theory of A. Faludi”
in Critical Readings in Planning Theory, Chris Paris (editor). New York.
Pergamon Press
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GIS" in Proceedings of a National Meeting of the American Congress on
Surveying and Mapping, Vol. 5, 1988
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Support System for Environment-Considered Urban Development in
Developing Countries” in Proceedings of 2001CUPUM, USA
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to Assess Land Use Suitability" in GIS WORLD, Vol. 6 no. 7 pp. 48-52,
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