Scenario Scope:

Airline services worked not within the boundaries of a country, but also beyond them. So, the scope of
the study not restricted to the regions, but covers the globe. The scenario will cover the overall world,
instead of some regions.

Key Derivers of Change:

The key derivers in this study are:

 Privatization-Nationalization
 Foreign Relations

If we take an overview on the Pakistan Airline services, which is controlled by Civil Aviation Authority, a
government regulatory body, and it is bearing heavy losses in millions since 2005 and onwards. These
losses are mainly due to the over staff of employees in the industry. The heavy salaries hindering the
profits to the company and it is continuously facing losses in the past decades. In this regards
privatization can be a deriver which can provide the change. The other is the Foreign Relations. India is a
neighboring country to Pakistan and also the second largest populated country in the World. The foreign
relations of these two countries since independence are worst. As a huge populated country India has
charm for many countries in terms of doing business, while high population also provide cheap sources
of production in the country. But the conditions of these two countries are not peaceful. Afghanistan is
another neighboring country of Pakistan which is under war like circumstances since many years. China
is another neighbor to Pakistan having very rapid growth. Iran is another neighbor to Pakistan. Foreign
relations of Pakistan are not very much good with these neighboring countries except China.
Apart from having foreign relations with these neighbors, Pakistan can create good strong foreign
relations with many other countries. Which can be resulted in granting visa services to different
countries and in response, more and more people will fly to those countries and also tour to Pakistan to
using air line services? So, having good relations with these and many other global countries can be
helpful for Pakistan to revive in this airplane industry. So, foreign relations are also taken as a key
deriver in the scenario.

Developing Scenario:

There are four scenarios of the situation.

The first scenario will be having privatization with weak foreign affairs. The second scenario is having
strong foreign affairs with privatization. The third with weak foreign relations with nationalization and
the last one will be having Nationalization with strong foreign affairs.

Impact of alternatives:

In first scenario with privatization and weak foreign affairs with neighboring and other countries, the
situation will be having more flies within the countires and lower rate of having visa provision to
countires. As in that scenario the private company looks for cutting the cost and lowering the staff, it
will be resulted in unemployment in the country. This is not favorable.

In the second scenario with having strong foreign affaris and privatization, the private owners will enjoy
it. As government is supporting them by granting visa services to many country people, it will provide an
opportunity to them and they will be in position to get more profits and can convert losses into profit.
But again privatiozation will cost the lowering and unnecessary staff to fire. In that case the profits will
increase, but unemployment level can increase, which can result in having strikes by the employees etc.

In third scenario a weak foreign relations with Nationalization. In case of nationalization the government
holds the control of the organization and will owes the perks and benefits or losses to the subsidiary. So,
if the foreign affaris with countires will be not strong, countires will not grant visa to Pakistani people
and same will be by Pakistani government. In that case the low rate of people flies will come resulted in
low profits (or even loss) and in nationalization government owns the company, and government
companies working in Pakistan is not working up-to-mark. There are over populated staffs in the
government organizations and work is getting done slower as compared to private companies. So, it will
resulted into worst condition for the government.

The last scenario is having nationalization and strong foreign affarirs. In nationalization government
owned the company and if in that case the government should maintained some good relations with
countires it is expected that the number of flies can increase. This will provide direct benefit to
government instead of any other private owner.

Early Warning System:

The last is more favorable for the government is they make suitable strategies and try to increase the
profits in such a manner that it boost their economy with having good relations with the citizens.