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Opi
nion

WeMadet
heCor
onav
irusEpi
demi
c

I
tmayhav
est
art
edwi
thabati
nacav
e,buthumanact
ivi
tyseti
tloose.

ByDav
idQuammen

Mr
.Quammeni
stheaut
horof“
Spi
l
lov
er:
Ani
mal
Inf
ect
ionsandt
heNextHumanPandemi
c.”

Jan.28,
2020

I
mage

Anor
mal
l
ybusyshoppi
ngdi
str
ictdur
ingt
heChi
neseNewYearhol
i
dayi
nBei
j
ing.

Anormal
lybusyshoppi
ngdi
str
ictdur
ingt
heChi
neseNewYearhol
i
dayi
nBei
j
ing.
Credi
t.
..
Kev
in
Fr
ayer
/Gett
yImages

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eonFacebookPostonTwi
tt
erMai
l

Thelatestscarynewv i
rusthathascapt uredtheworl
d’shorri
fi
edatt
enti
on,causedalockdown
of56mi ll
ionpeoplei
nChi na,di
sruptedtravelpl
ansaroundtheglobeandsparkedarunon
medicalmasksf rom Wuhan,Hubei Province,t
oBryan,Texas,i
sknownprovisi
onal
lyas“nCoV-
2019.”It
’saclunkymoni kerf
oral ur
idthreat.

Thename, pi
ckedbythet eam ofChi nesescientist
swhoi solatedandident i
fi
edt hev i
rus,i
s
shortfor“novelcor
onav i
rusof2019. ”Itr
efl
ectst hefactt
hatt hevir
uswasf ir
strecogni zedto
haveinfectedhumansl atelastyear—i naseaf oodandl i
ve-animalmar ketinWuhan—andt hat
i
tbelongst othecoronavirusfamily
,anot or
iousgr oup.TheSARSepi demicof2002- 3,which
i
nfected8,098peoplewor ldwide,ki
ll
ing774oft hem,wascausedbyacor onav i
rus,andsowas
theMERSout br
eakthatbeganont heAr abi
anPeni nsulai
n2012andst i
lll
ingers( 2,
494peopl e
i
nfect
edand858deat
hsasofNov
ember
).

Despi
tet
henewvir
us’
sname,though,
andast
hepeopl
ewhochr
ist
enedi
twel
lknow,
nCoV-
2019i
sn’
tasnov
elasyoumightthi
nk.

Somet hingverymuchl i
kei twasf oundsev eralyear sagoi nacav einYunnan, aprovi
nceroughl
y
athousandmi l
essouthwestofWuhan, byat eam ofper spi
caciousresearchers,whonotedit
s
exi
st encewithconcern.Thef astspreadofnCoV- 2019—mor ethan4,500conf i
rmedcases,
i
ncludingatleast106deat hs,asofTuesdaymor ning, andt hefigur
eswi l
lhaverisenbytheti
me
your eadthi
s—i sst
artl
ingbutnotunf oreseeable.Thatt hev i
rusemer gedfrom anonhuman
animal ,
probablyabat,andpossi blyafterpassingt hr oughanot hercreatur
e, mayseem spooky,
yetitisutt
erl
yunsurprisingtoscientistswhost udyt heset hings.

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SEMENT

Onesuchsci ent
istisZheng-LiShi
,oftheWuhanInsti
tut
eofVirol
ogy,aseni orauthoroft
he
draf
tpaper(noty etpeerrev
iewedandsof aravai
l
ableonlyi
nprepri
nt)thatgav enCoV-2019it
s
i
dentit
yandname.I twasMs.Shi andhercoll
aborat
orswho,backin2005, showedt hatt
he
SARSpat hogenwasabatv ir
usthathadspil
ledoveri
ntopeopl
e.Ms.Shi andcol l
eagueshave
beentraci
ngcoronav i
rusesinbatssincet
hen,warni
ngthatsomeoft hem ar euni
quelysui
tedto
causehumanpandemi cs.

Ina2017paper ,theysetouthow, afternear l

yfi
v eyearsofcollecti
ngf ecal samplesfr
om bat si
n
theYunnancav e,theyhadfoundcor onavirusesi nmul t
ipl
eindivi
dual soff ourdif
fer
entspecies
ofbats, i
ncludi
ngonecal l
edthei ntermediatehor seshoebat,becauseoft hehalf
-oval
flapof
ski
npr otrudingli
keasaucerar oundi tsnostril
s.Thegenomeoft hatv i
rus, Ms.Shiandher
coll
eagueshav enowannounced, i
s96per centi denti
cal t
otheWuhanv irusthathasrecentl
y
beenf oundi nhumans.Andt hoset woconst i
tuteapai rdi
sti
nctfrom al lotherknown
coronav i
ruses,i
ncludingt
heonet hatcausesSARS.I nt hi
ssense, nCoV- 2019isnov el
—and
possiblyevenmor edanger
oust ohumanst hantheot hercoronaviruses.

Isay“possi
bly”becausesof ar,
notonlydowenotknowhowdanger ousiti
s,wecan’tknow.
Outbreaksofnewv i
ral
diseasesarel
ikethest
eelbal
lsi
napinball
machine:Youcanslapyour
fl
ippersatt
hem, rockthemachi neonit
slegsandbonktheball
stothej
it
ter
yrings,
butwhere
theyendupdr oppingdependson11l evel
sofchanceaswellasonanyt
hingyoudo.Thisistr
ue
wit
hcoronav
irusesinpart
icul
ar:
Theymut
ateof
tenwhi
l
etheyr
epl
i
cat
e,andcanev
olv
eas
qui
ckl
yasani ghtmareghoul.

Pet erDaszak,thepresidentofEcoHealthAll
iance,apr i
vat
eresearchorganizat
ionbasedi
nNew
Yor kthatfocusesont heconnect i
onsbetweenhumanandwi ldl
i
fehealt
h, i
soneofMs.Shi’s
l
ongt imepar t
ners.“We’vebeenr ai
singthefl
agont hesevi
rusesfor15y ear
s,”hetol
dmeon
Fridaywi t
hcalmf rust
ration.“
EversinceSARS.”Hewasaco- aut
horofthe2005bat s-
and-
SARS
study ,andagainofthe2017paperaboutt hemul t
ipleSARS-li
kecoronavir
usesintheYunnan
cav e.

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SEMENT

Mr.Daszakt ol
dmet hat
,duri
ngthatsecondstudy,thefiel
dteam t
ookbl oodsamplesf
rom a
coupleofthousandYunnanesepeople,about400ofwhom l i
vedneart hecav
e.Roughl
y3
percentofthem car
ri
edanti
bodi
esagai nstSARS-r
elatedcoronav
iruses.

“Wedon’tknowiftheygotsick.Wedon’ tknowi ft
heywereexposedaschi l
drenoradults,
”Mr.
Daszaksaid.“
Butwhati ttel
l
sy oui sthatthesevir
usesaremakingthejump, r
epeatedly
,fr
om
batstohumans.”Inotherwor ds,thi
sWuhanemer gencyi
snonovelevent.I
t’
spar tofa
sequenceofrel
atedcont i
ngenciest hatstr
etchesbackint
othepastandwi l
lstret
chf or
wardi
nto
thefut
ure,asl
ongascur r
entcircumst ancespersi
st.

Sowhenyou’
redoneworry
ingaboutt
hisout
break,
wor
ryaboutt
henextone.Ordosomet
hing
aboutt
hecur
rentci
rcumst
ances.

Cur r
entci
rcumstancesincludeaper i
loustradeinwildl
ifeforfood,
wi t
hsupplychainsstr
etchi
ng
throughAsia,Af
ricaandtoal esserextent,t
heUni t
edSt at
esandel sewhere.Thattr
adehasnow
beenout l
awedinChina,onat empor arybasis;buti
twasout l
awedalsodur i
ngSARS, t
hen
all
owedt oresume—wi t
hbat s,ci
vets,porcupi
nes,turt
les,bamboor ats,
manyki ndsofbi
rdsand
otheranimalspi
ledtogetherinmar ketssuchast heonei nWuhan.

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SEMENT
Cur r
entcir
cumst ancesalsoincl
ude7. 6bi l
l
ionhungr yhumans: someoft hem impov eri
shedand
desperateforprotei
n;someaf fl
uentandwast efulandempower edtotraveleverywhichwayby
airpl
ane.Thesef act
orsareunprecedent edonpl anetEar th:
Weknowf r
om thef ossi
l r
ecord,by
absenceofev idence,t
hatnol ar
ge-bodiedani mal hasev erbeennearl
ysoabundantashumans
arenow, l
etalonesoef fect
iveatarrogatingresour ces.Andoneconsequenceoft hatabundance,
thatpower,andt heconsequentecol ogi
cal di
sturbancesi sincr
easi
ngv i
ralexchanges—f irst
from ani
mal tohuman, thenfrom humant ohuman, somet i
mesonapandemi cscal e.

Weinv
adetropi
calforestsandot herwildlandscapes,whi
chharborsomanyspeciesofani
mal s
andpl
ants—andwi thinthosecreatur
es, somanyunknownv i
ruses.Wecutthet
rees;
wekillthe
ani
malsorcagethem andsendt hem t omar ket
s.Wedi sr
uptecosyst
ems,andweshakev i
ruses
l
oosefr
om thei
rnaturalhosts.Whent hathappens, t
heyneedanewhost .Of
ten,
wear ei
t.

Thelistofsuchv i
rusesemer gi
ngintohumanssoundsl ikeagr i
m drumbeat :Machupo,Boli
vi
a,
1961; Marburg,Germany ,1967;Ebola,Zai
reandSudan, 1976; H.I
.V.
,recognizedinNewYor kand
Cali
fornia,
1981; aform ofHant a(nowknownasSi nNombr e),southwesternUnitedStates,
1993; Hendra,Austr
alia,
1994; bi
rdf l
u,HongKong,1997; Nipah,Malay si
a,1998;WestNile,New
York,1999;SARS, China,2002-3;MERS, SaudiAr
abia,2012; Ebolaagain,WestAf r
ica,
2014.And
that
’sjustaselecti
on.Nowwehav enCoV-2019,
thelatestthumpont hedr um.

Currentcircumst
ancesalsoi ncl
udebur eaucratswhol i
eandconceal badnews, andelected
offi
cial
swhobr agtot hecrowdaboutcut t
ingforeststocreat
ejobsinthet i
mberi ndustryand
agri
cultureoraboutcutti
ngbudget sforpublichealthandresearch.Thedistancef r
om Wuhanor
theAmazont oPari
s,TorontoorWashi ngtoni sshortforsomev i
ruses,measur edinhour s,
giv
en
howwel l
theycanridewithinairpl
anepassenger s.Andifyouthi
nkf undi
ngpandemi c
preparednessisexpensive,waitunti
lyouseet hef i
nalcostofnCoV-2019.

ADVERTI
SEMENT

Fortunatel
y,curr
entcircumstancesal
soincl
udebri
ll
i
ant,dedi
catedscienti
stsandoutbr
eak-
responsemedi calpeople—suchasmanyatt heWuhanInsti
tuteofVirol
ogy,EcoHeal
thAll
iance,
theUnitedStatesCent ersf
orDiseaseContr
olandPrev
ention(C.D.
C.)
, t
heChineseC.D.
C.and
numer ousotherinst
ituti
ons.Thesearet
hepeoplewhogoi ntobatcaves,swampsandhi gh-
securi
tycontai
nmentlabor
ator
ies,
oftenr
iski
ngthei
rli
ves,
tobri
ngoutbatf
ecesandbloodand
otherpreci
ousevi
dencetostudygenomicsequencesandanswert
hekeyquest
ions.

AsthenumberofnCoV- 2019caseshasi ncr

eased,andthedeathtol
lal
ongwithit,
onemetric,
thecasefatali
tyrat
e,hasremainedratherst
eadysof ar
:ataboutorbel
ow3per cent.Asof
Tuesday,l
esst hanthr
eeoutof100conf i
rmedcaseshaddied.That’
srel
ati
vel
ygoodl uck—
worsethanf ormoststrai
nsofinfl
uenza,bett
erthanforSARS.

Thi
sgoodluckmaynotlast
.Nobodyknowswher ethepi
nbal
lwi
llgo.Fourday
sfrom t
oday
,the
numberofcasesmaybeinthetensofthousands.Sixmont
hsfr
om today,Wuhanpneumonia
mayberecedingi
ntomemory.Ornot.

Wearefacedwi thtwomor t
al chall
enges,intheshortt
erm andthelongterm.Shortterm:We
mustdoev er
ythingwecan,wi thintel
li
gence,cal
m andaf ul
lcommi t
mentofr esources,t
o
cont
ainandextinguisht
hisnCoV- 2019out br
eakbeforeitbecomes,asitcould,adevastat
ing
gl
obalpandemic.Longterm: Wemustr emember ,whenthedustsettl
es,thatnCoV-2019was
notanoveleventorami sf
ortunet hatbefel
lus.I
twas—i ti
s—par tofapat t
ernofchoicesthat
wehumansar emaki ng.

Davi
dQuammeni sanauthorandjour
nal
i
stwhosebooksi
ncl
ude“
Spi
l
lov
er:
Ani
mal
Inf
ect
ions
andtheNextHumanPandemic.”

Rel
ated

Mor
evi
ewsont
heWuhancor
onav
irus.

Opi
nion|
Howar
dMar
kel

Wi
l
ltheLar
gestQuar
ant
inei
nHi
stor
yJustMakeThi
ngsWor
se?
Jan.27,
2020

Opi
nion|
YanzhongHuang

I
sChi
naSet
ti
ngI
tsel
fUpf
orAnot
herEpi
demi
c?Jan.23,
2020

Opi
nion|
Dav
idQuammen
TheNextPandemi
c:Noti
f,butWhenMay9,
2013

TheTimesiscommi t
tedt
opubli
shi
ngadi ver
sit
yoflet
ter
st otheedi
tor.We’dli
ket
ohearwhat
youthi
nkaboutt
hisoranyofourar
ti
cles.Herearesometips.Andhere’souremai
l
:
l
ett
ers@nyt
imes.com.

Fol
l
owTheNewYor
kTi
mesOpi
nionsect
iononFacebook,
Twi
tt
er(
@NYTopi
nion)and
I
nstagr
am.

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einOpi
nion

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mage

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edi
t.
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nSchaf
f/TheNewYor
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mes

Jonat
hanSt
evenson

TheMet
hodi
nJohnBol
ton’
sMadness

Jan.28,
2020

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eShaw

Wi
l
lTr
ump’
sDef
ender
sPasst
heTestofLegi
ti
macy
?

Jan.28,
2020

Gai
lCol
l
insandBr
etSt
ephens

Al
way
sLookont
heBr
ightSi
deofI
mpeachment

Jan.28,
2020

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gnupf
orDav
idLeonhar
dt'
snewsl
ett
er

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dLeonhar
dthel
psyoumakesenseofthenews—andof
fer
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ngsuggest
ionsf
rom
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ng.

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