Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SSRN-id 433100
SSRN-id 433100
SSRN-id 433100
Dr S Narayan Rao
Associate Professor of Finance
Shailesh J Mehta School of Management
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
Powai, Mumbai-400 076
Ph. 91-22-2572 2545 Extension: 7744
Fax: 91-22-2572 2872
e-mail: narayan@som.iitb.ac.in
And
M Ravindran, Manager
Tata Power Company Ltd
2
Abstract
In this paper the performance evaluation of Indian mutual funds in a bear market is carried out through
relative performance index, risk-return analysis, Treynor’s ratio, Sharp’s ratio, Sharp’s measure, Jensen’s
measure, and Fama’s measure .The data used is monthly closing NAVs. The source of data is website of
Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). Study period is September 98-April 02(bear period). We started
with a sample of 269 open ended schemes (out of total schemes of 433) for computing relative performance
index. Then after excluding the funds whose returns are less than risk-free returns, 58 schemes were used for
further analysis. Mean monthly (logarithmic) return and risk of the sample mutual fund schemes during the
period were 0.59% and 7.10%, respectively, compared to similar statistics of 0.14% and 8.57% for market
portfolio. The results of performance measures suggest that most of the mutual fund schemes in the sample of
58 were able to satisfy investor’s expectations by giving excess returns over expected returns based on both
premium for systematic risk and total risk.
JEL: G23
Keywords: mutual funds, performance evaluation, risk-return analysis
I. Introduction
The mutual fund industry in India began with setting up of the Unit Trust of India (UTI) in
1964 by the Government of India. During last 36 years, UTI has grown to be a dominant
player in the industry with assets of over Rs.52000 crores (Rs.520 billion) as of December
2001. In 1987 public sector banks and two Insurance companies (Life Insurance Company
and General insurance company) were allowed to launch mutual funds. Securities and
Exchange Board of India (SEBI), regulatory body for Indian capital market, formulated
comprehensive regulatory framework for Mutual Funds in 1993 and allowed private
corporate bodies to launch mutual fund schemes. Since then several mutual funds have been
set up by the private and joint sectors. As on March 2002, there were 35 mutual fund
companies with 433 schemes and assets under management were Rs.100594 (Rs.1005
billion). It has been about a decade of competition for Indian mutual fund industry.
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Indian mutual funds contribute 0.18% to net assets kitty, 0.55% to the number of schemes at
global level and we have a long way to catch up with the developed world. The Product Life
Cycle of Indian Mutual fund is in growth stage. The performance of mutual funds receives a
great deal of attention from both practitioners and academics. With an aggregate investment
of over $11 trillion worldwide and over $20 billion in India, the investing public’s interest in
The idea behind performance evaluation is to find the returns provided by the
individual schemes and the risk levels at which they are delivered in comparison with the
market and the risk free rates. It is also our aim to identify the out-performers. The objective
of the study is to evaluate the performance of Indian Mutual Fund Schemes in a bear market
using:
• risk-return analysis
• Treynor’s ratio
• Sharpe’s ratio
• Sharpe’s measure
• Jensen’s measure
• Fama’s measure
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Out of the 433 schemes as on 31st March 2002, 311 are open ended, 87 are close ended and
35 are assured return type. The fund managers are not interested in assured return schemes
due to stringent SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India, Regulatory body of Indian
Capital Markets) regulations and hence are excluded from our study. Out of 87 close-ended
schemes only 4 are actively traded and others are inactive. Out of the 311 open-ended
schemes 269 are at least 1 year old and selected for the evaluation. Thus, initial sample size is
269 open-ended schemes. Study period is from September 1998 to April 2002.
The logarithmic returns are computed from monthly closing NAVs obtained from
AMFI’s (Association of Mutual Funds in India) website. The NAVs are considered
appropriate for the open-ended schemes as purchase and sale prices are linked to NAVs.
Based on relative performance index all the schemes which could not provide returns equal to
above risk-free returns are excluded from the sample and the remaining sample of 58 open
III. Methodology
Relative Performance Index is defined as the ratio of the unadjusted percentage NAV
However RPI calculated as above will result in negative values for a mutual fund scheme
with positive return against the bear market. Hence we amend above formula as in (2):
The RPI calculations are applied to 269 sample schemes. Expected return from a
Hence a scheme with RPI equal to 5, is expected to give an annual return of 8.4%
(1.68 multiplied by 5) which is the risk free rate, with the mean monthly market return during
the study period at 0.14% (1.68% annualized). We restricted further analysis to schemes with
Return
For each mutual fund scheme under study, the monthly returns are computed as:
The market returns are computed on similar lines with BSE Sensex (The Bombay
Stock Exchange Sensitive Index) as benchmark. The return on the market portfolio is
computed as:
The logarithmic mean is computed to obtain mean monthly market return. The returns thus
obtained are absolute returns and are retained throughout the study.
Risk
Financial analysts and statisticians prefer to use a quantitative risk surrogate called the
2
1 n
variance of returns, denoted by Var(r) = ∑[ri − ram ] (5)
n t =1
Where ri = return on individual mutual fund unit. ram = mean rate of return
The square root of the variance is called the standard deviation σ = Var (r ). (6)
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The standard deviation and the variance are equally acceptable and equivalent quantitative
measures of an asset’s total risk. The variance and standard deviation are computed from
To obtain the measure of systematic risk (Beta) of the mutual fund scheme, Market Model is
rP = α + β * rm + e p (7)
Where, rp is the return on the mutual fund scheme, rm is the return on the market,
α is the intercept, β is the slope or the beta coefficient, ep is the error term.
Higher values of β indicate a high sensitivity of fund returns against market returns;
the lower value indicates low sensitivity. Higher β values are desired for the mutual funds
during bull phase of the market and lower β values are desired during the bear phase to out
perform the market. The error term ep is an approximation for unique risk. There are unequal
sample observations and non-identical time periods for the selected mutual fund schemes. It
is assumed that beta is stationary during the period. The constants α and β are computed
through regression analysis by regressing the monthly market return with the monthly mutual
fund return. The regression also provides the value of r2 (coefficient of determination) that
gives the strength of co-relation between the market and the fund returns and indicates the
extent of diversification.
Diversification reduces the unique or unsystematic or diversifiable risk and thus improves the
determination (r2). A low r2 value indicates the fund has large scope for diversification. A
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Risk-less asset
By definition, a risk less asset has zero variability of returns. If an investor buys an
asset at the beginning of the holding period with the known terminal value, such type of asset
can be called as risk-less or risk free asset. Government securities and nationalized bank
deposits fall under this category. As the government securities are not easily available to the
common man, we take the nationalized bank deposits as the risk free asset and the interest
Further, Gupta’s study (1991) on “Indian Share Owners” reveals that 91.4% of house
holds (sample 5822) perceives that nationalized bank deposits are absolutely safe. It is a
common perception of the mutual fund investor to expect a return higher than the bank rate
but lesser than the stock market. A study by Ajay Shah and Susan Thomas(1994), assumed
Treynor’s Ratio
reward to volatility ratio, based on systematic risk defined in equation (8). He assumes that
the investor can eliminate unsystematic risk by holding a diversified portfolio. Hence his
performance measure denoted as TP is the excess return over the risk free rate per unit of
systematic risk, in other words it indicates risk premium per unit of systematic risk.
Risk Pr emium r −r
TP = = p f (8)
Systematic Risk Index βP
where TP = Treynor’s Ratio, rP = portfolio return, rf = risk free return and βP = Beta
coefficient for portfolio. As the market beta is 1, Treynor’s index TP for benchmark portfolio
is (rm-rf) where rm = market return. If TP of the mutual fund scheme is greater than (rm-rf), then
The major limitation of the Treynor Index is that it can be applied to the schemes with
positive betas during the bull phase of the market. The results will mislead if applied during
bear phase of the market to the schemes with negative betas. The second limitation is it
Sharpe’s Ratio
small investor invests fully in the mutual fund and does not hold any portfolio to eliminate
unsystematic risk and hence demands a premium for the total risk.
Risk Pr emium rp − rf
SP = = (9)
TotalRisk σP
where SP = Sharpe’s Ratio, rP = portfolio return, rf = risk free return, and σP = standard
rm − r f
deviation of portfolio returns. The SP for benchmark portfolio is where σm = standard
σm
deviation of market returns. If SP of the mutual fund scheme is greater than that of the market
The superiority of the Sharpe ratio over the Treynor ratio is, it considers the point
whether investors are reasonably rewarded for the total risk in comparison to the market. A
mutual fund scheme with a relatively large unique risk may outperform the market in
Treynor’s index and may under perform the market in Sharpe ratio. A mutual fund scheme
with large Treynor ratio and low Sharpe ratio can be concluded to have relatively larger
unique risk. Thus the two indices rank the schemes differently.
The major limitation of the Sharpe ratio is that it is based on the Capital Market Line
(CML). The major character of the capital market line is only the efficient portfolios can be
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plotted on the CML but not inefficient. Hence we assume that a managed portfolio (mutual
Sharpe Measure
Sharpe (1963) suggested that, it is possible to consider the return for each security to
rp = α + β * rm + e
(10)
where rp= expected return, α= intercept, β = beta coefficient, rm = expected market return,
Sharpe noted that the variance explained by the index could be referred as the
systematic risk and the unexplained variance is called residual or unsystematic risk. Sharpe
suggests that systematic risk and unsystematic risk for a security can be quantified as:
(11)
(12)
Where Var(ri)= Variance of mutual fund scheme return, Var(rm)= Variance of market return,
β = beta coefficient of the scheme. A well diversified fund is expected to have lower
unsystematic risk.
Jensen’s Measure
Sharpe and Treynor ratios rely mainly on ranking of portfolios in comparison to the
market portfolio. They are unable to answer question like: Has fund given more than/less
than/ equal to expected returns? Hence there is a need for a better performance measure.
Michael C.Jensen (1968) has given different dimension and confined his attention to
the problem of evaluating a fund manager’s ability of providing higher returns to the
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investors. He measures the performance as the excess return provided by the portfolio over
the expected (CAPM) returns. The performance measure, denoted by JP is defined in equation
where JP = Jenson’s measure for portfolio, rP = portfolio return, rf = risk free return , and βP =
beta coefficient of the portfolio. A positive value of JP would indicate that the scheme has
provided a higher return over the CAPM return and lies above Security Market Line (SML)
and a negative value would indicate it has provided a lower than expected returns and lies
below SML. The Jensen model assumes that the portfolio is fully invested and is subjected to
Fama’s Measure
Jensen’s measure computes excess returns over expected returns based on premium
for systematic risk. Eugene F Fama (1972) goes a step ahead, he suggests to measure fund
performance in terms of excess returns over expected returns based on premium for total risk.
In other words, the excess returns are computed based on Capital Market Line (CML).
i) Risk-free return r f.
The second and third measures indicate the impact of diversification and market risk. By
altering systematic and unique risk a portfolio can be reshuffled to get the desired return.
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Fama says the portfolio performance can be judged by the net superior returns due to
.... = (rP − r f ) − P
σ [
σ m rm − r f ] (14)
where FP =Fama’s measure for portfolio, rP =portfolio return, rf =risk free return, σP =
standard deviation of the portfolio returns & σm =standard deviation of the market returns.
A positive value for FP indicates that the fund earned returns higher than expected
returns and lies above CML, and a negative value indicates that the fund earned returns less
mistakes and suggest a direction for the correction. A comparison of Sharpe’s and Treynor’s
ratios will help the fund managers to correct their actions from risk angle and comparison of
1. The NAVs used in the study are obtained from AMFI’s website, which in turn is
supplied by the members. Members in turn have not followed any uniform rule in
2. Initially all mutual fund schemes were directly linked to stock market. In the
recent 2 years numerous schemes which are independent of stock market (debt &
money market funds) are introduced and such schemes’ returns need not have co-
relation with BSE sensex, and the sensex is not adjusted for dividends.
3. Banks are free to accept deposits at any interest within the ceilings fixed by
Reserve Bank of India and interest rates can vary from client to client. Hence
4. The analysis is not free from the limitations of non-identical time periods and
5. The study excludes the effect of entry and exit loads of the mutual funds.
IV Results &Analysis
Relative performance indices for 269 mutual fund schemes are computed. On the basis of
RPI analysis we classified the 269 schemes into: i) under performers (returns less than 2%) ii)
schemes with returns of 2%-5%, iii) schemes with returns 6%-8.4%, iv) schemes with returns
8.5% and above. The returns are derived from RPI and summarized in Table -I
“take in Table-I”
Observations:
• The Medium Term Debt Funds can be rated as the best performers. All the 36 funds
out performed the market, with 18 of them giving returns of 8.5%& above.
• InfoTech Equity Funds are the worst performers with 8 out of 12 under performing,
• Out of 103 equity based schemes, 40 are under performers, 31 are par performers with
23 giving returns of 8.5% and above. This shows that some fund managers were able
We will now consider only those schemes with RPI greater than 5 that gave returns at risk
Risk-Return Analysis:
Table-II shows that 12 schemes gave negative returns, and the remaining 46 gave
positive returns. From the systematic risk point of view (β) 37 schemes are of low risk, 11 are
of below average risk, 10 are of average risk and none of them are in above average risk and
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Table-III shows that the total risk of a mutual fund is of above average type. It
conveys that the total risk is above average with low market risk and the mutual fund’s risk
diversification is very poor. Out of the 58 schemes, 31 are at one extreme of high risk and 19
are at other extreme of low risk and only 8 are in between. Out of 31 high risky schemes 10
gave net losses and all the19 low risky schemes out performed the market.
“take in Table-III”
Table-4 gives the values of rp, σ, β and t values (for beta) of the sample schemes. The
average mutual fund with its mean monthly return of 0.59% at total risk level (σ) of 7.10%
has out performed the market with 0.14% return at a risk level of 8.57%. For 31 schemes beta
“take in Table-IV”
A look at Table-V reveals that the debt funds have performed better. Among the
equity funds, diversified and balanced funds have performed better. This is expected in a bear
market.
“take in Table-V”
A look at Table-VI reveals that out of 58 schemes 8 have under performed the market,
25 are found to have higher total risk than the market and only 32 schemes have given returns
higher than the risk free rates. The 58 mutual fund schemes under study can be located in the
“take in Table-VI”
The 2X2 matrix is given in Table-VII. The matrix gives a clear idea of the risk-return
relationship of all the sample schemes in relation to the benchmark portfolio. The investor
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can link his investment strategies to the quadrants on the lines of BCG matrix.
“take in Table-VII”
A look at Table-8 shows that the 34 schemes are with positive Treynor’s ratio and 32 are with
positive Sharpe’s ratio. The limitation of Treynor’s ratio with negative β is tested for 4
schemes and that of Sharpe’s index with low σ values tested for 2 schemes. The indices
A look at the Sharpe Measures’ results in Table-VIII reveals that the average unique
risk is very high (Var=0.0067, σ=8.19%) with low degree of diversification at 11.64%. The
fund managers have large scope to improve diversification and thus the performance.
“take in Table-VIII”
A look at Table-IX suggests that 37 schemes have provided excess returns over
CAPM returns against the fact that only 32 schemes providing excess returns over the risk
free rates. Jensen model suffers from limitation of CAPM as rm<rf. The Fama model results
show that β impact compensation is positive for 13 schemes and the inadequate
diversification compensation is positive for 4 schemes. However the net superior returns due
to selectivity is positive for 48 schemes. This is due to the fact rm<rf during the period under
study.
“take in Table-IX”
V Conclusions
The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of Indian Mutual Fund
Schemes during bear market through relative performance index (RPI), risk- return analysis,
Treynor’s ratio, Sharpe’s ratio, Sharp’s measure, Jensen’s measure, and Fama’s measure. The
RPI Analysis:
Out of 269 schemes, 49 were under performers, 102 were par performers and 118 were
out performers of the market. Medium Term Debt Funds were the best. Some equity
funds were able to diversify the risks and maximize the returns in the bear market.
The average mutual fund was found with low unsystematic and high total risk. Out 58
sample schemes 12 schemes gave negative returns and 46 gave positive returns, with only
30 giving excess returns over the risk free rates. Medium term debt funds were the out
performers.
Treynor's Ratio
32 out of 58 schemes were found with positive Treynor’s ratio and the limitation of this
Sharpe’s Ratio
30 out of 58 schemes were found with positive Sharpe’s ratio and the limitation of this
Sharpe’s Measure
The unsystematic or unique risk of mutual fund is very high and this is due to low β
values, poor co-relation with the market and the fact is confirmed by low values of r2.
Jensen’s Measure
providing excess returns over the risk free rates and this is due to the low CAPM returns
with rm<rf.
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Fama’s Measure:
Positive beta compensation was found on 13 schemes for systematic risk, 4 schemes for
unsystematic risk. However 46 schemes found with positive Fama’s net superior returns due
It can be concluded that 58 of 269 open ended mutual funds have provided better returns than
the market during the bear period of September 98-April 2002, some of the funds provided
excess returns over expected returns based on both premium for systematic risk and total risk.
17
References
Gupta L.C, “Indian share owners: A survey”, Society for Capital Market Research and
development, 1991, p.92.
Jack L. Treynor, “How to rate Management of Investment Funds”, Harvard Business Review,
43, No.1, (January-February, 1965), pp. 63-75.
William F. Sharpe, “Mutual Fund Performance”, Journal of Business, 39, No.1, (January
1966), pp. 119-138.
Sharpe W.F, “A simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis”, Management science 9. (January
1963), pp.277-293.
Michael C. Jensen, “ The Performance of Mutual Funds in the period 1945-1964”, Journal of
Finance, 23, No.2, (May 1968), pp. 389-416.
“Mutual Fund Year Book-2000”, Joint Publication of Association of Mutual funds in India
and UTI Institute of Capital Markets, 2001, pp. 29-139.
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Table III :Risk (Variance) and Return of Mutual Funds (No.of Schemes)
Risk→ Low Risk Below Average Above Avg. High Risk Total
Monthly ↓ σ2<0.0009 Avg. Risk Risk Risk σ2>0.0036
Return (%) 0.0009> 0.0015> 0.0022>
σ2<0.0015 σ2<0.0022 σ2<0.0036
<0 0 1 0 1 10 12
0-0.2 0 0 0 0 0
0.21-0.4 1 0 1 0 2 4
0.41-0.60 2 0 0 0 1 3
0.61-0.80 3 0 0 0 4 7
0.81-1.0 3 0 2 0 4 9
1.01-2.00 10 0 1 1 5 17
2.01-2.80 0 0 0 1 5 6
Total 19 1 4 3 31 58
19
3.Tata balanced
4. Birla Equity Plan
Low RISK High
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Table VIII :Treynor & Sharpe Ratios and Unique Risk &Diversification Extent
S.No Scheme Treynor Ratio Sharpe Ratio Sharpe Measure
Unique r2
Open Ended: Equity: Diversified Fund BM Fund BM Risk
1 Alliance Equity Fund 0.030 -0.008 0.137 -0.089 0.007 0.156
2 Birla Advantage 0.012 -0.008 0.034 -0.089 0.020 0.061
3 Kothari Pioneer Blue Chip -0.015 -0.008 -0.060 -0.089 0.004 0.127
4 Kothari Pioneer Prime -0.014 -0.020 -0.090 -0.238 0.009 0.303
5 Kothari Pioneer Prima Plus 0.042 -0.008 0.220 -0.089 0.003 0.206
6 Prudential ICICI Growth Plan 0.034 -0.008 0.068 -0.089 0.001 0.030
7 Reliance growth 0.018 -0.008 0.075 -0.089 0.007 0.129
8 Reliance Vision 0.014 -0.008 0.072 -0.089 0.011 0.206
9 Sundaram Growth -0.009 -0.008 -0.060 -0.089 0.005 0.313
10 Templeton India Growth 0.004 -0.008 0.029 -0.089 0.006 0.346
11 UTI PEF Unit Scheme 0.004 -0.007 0.026 -0.083 0.004 0.274
12 Zurich India Equity -0.001 -0.021 -0.005 -0.255 0.010 0.127
13 Zurich India Top 200 Fund -0.009 -0.028 -0.070 -0.346 0.004 0.432
Equity: Savings
14 Alliance Capital Tax relief96 0.000 -0.021 0.000 -0.255 0.017 0.155
15 Birla equity Plan -0.101 -0.025 -0.475 -0.280 0.009 0.169
16 BoB ELSS 96 -0.050 -0.025 -0.357 -0.280 0.005 0.394
17 Kothari Pioneer Tax shield 0.037 -0.009 0.177 -0.103 0.009 0.168
18 Tata Tax Saving Fund -0.027 -0.009 -0.110 -0.103 0.028 0.124
19 Zurich India Tax saver -0.060 -0.022 -0.256 -0.251 0.004 0.144
Equity: Speciality
20 Birla MNC -0.046 -0.026 -0.133 -0.297 0.020 0.062
21 JM Basic -0.028 -0.019 -0.108 -0.220 0.021 0.105
22 UTI Petro -0.138 -0.024 -0.075 -0.277 0.053 0.002
23 UTI Services Sector -0.014 -0.024 -0.057 -0.277 0.023 0.122
Balanced Funds
24 Alliance'95 Fund 0.024 -0.005 0.112 -0.062 0.010 0.156
25 Canpremium -0.029 -0.008 -0.121 -0.089 0.002 0.132
26 JM Balanced (G) -0.001 -0.008 -0.006 -0.089 0.006 0.179
27 Kothari Pioneer Pension Plan 0.002 -0.008 0.009 -0.089 0.000 0.188
28 Tata Balanced -0.046 -0.028 -0.175 -0.322 0.024 0.109
29 Unit Scheme 95 -1.872 -0.022 -0.400 -0.251 0.004 0.000
30 UTI Retirement Benefit Plan -0.045 -0.005 -0.242 -0.060 0.001 0.218
31 Zurich India Prudence -0.009 -0.021 -0.008 -0.255 0.014 0.005
Debt Funds: Medium Term
32 Alliance Liquid income -1.107 -0.008 -0.186 -0.089 0.000 0.000
33 JM Liquid Fund-G -0.042 -0.008 -0.306 -0.089 0.000 0.007
34 Birla income plus 0.112 -0.009 0.105 -0.106 0.015 0.007
35 Chola Triple Ace 0.082 -0.005 0.210 -0.062 0.000 0.048
36 Templeton India Income -0.018 -0.008 0.034 -0.089 0.003 0.026
37 DSPML Bond 0.056 -0.008 0.239 -0.089 0.000 0.132
38 Tata Income-G -0.005 -0.008 0.013 -0.089 0.001 0.044
39 Zurich India High Interest 0.019 -0.024 0.024 -0.277 0.010 0.011
40 IDBI Principal Deposit-EA/EB 0.074 -0.020 0.277 -0.229 0.000 0.111
41 Chola Freedom Income 0.102 -0.007 0.140 -0.083 0.000 0.014
42 JF India Bond 0.143 -0.008 0.174 -0.089 0.000 0.011
43 Sundaram Bond Saver -0.040 -0.007 0.048 -0.083 0.002 0.011
44 Reliance Income 0.068 -0.014 0.133 -0.200 0.001 0.020
45 Escorts Income Plan 0.015 -0.026 0.019 -0.297 0.004 0.012
46 Prudential ICICI income plan 0.118 -0.014 0.677 -0.200 0.000 0.170
47 UTI Bond 0.013 -0.008 0.011 -0.089 0.001 0.006
48 LIC Bond 0.166 -0.018 0.246 -0.211 0.003 0.016
49 PNB Debt 0.082 -0.028 0.491 -0.322 0.000 0.269
Debt Funds: Marginal Equity
50 Kothari Pioneer CAP -0.029 -0.009 0.055 -0.106 0.001 0.026
Debt Funds: Short Term
51 Alliance Cash Manger 0.009 -0.019 -0.016 -0.263 0.006 0.018
52 Dundee Liquidity 0.097 -0.026 -0.047 -0.297 0.001 0.002
53 JM High Liquidity-G 0.577 -0.019 -0.456 -0.220 0.000 0.004
54 Prudential ICICI Liquid Plan 0.049 -0.022 -0.182 -0.251 0.000 0.108
55 Templeton India Liquid 0.016 -0.022 -0.013 -0.251 0.004 0.005
Debt Funds: Gilt MT & LT
56 K Gilt '98 Investment Plan -0.311 -0.021 0.281 -0.238 0.000 0.006
57 Templeton India GSF 0.629 -0.020 -1.172 -0.229 0.000 0.027
Money Market Funds
58 UTI MM Mutual Fund 4.585 -0.005 -0.226 -0.060 0.000 0.000
Average values 0.0067 0.1164
Legend: BM-Bench mark portfolio (BSE Sensex)
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