TUGAS 4

PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

SI 5101 ANALISIS REKAYASA

Dosen: Ir. Biemo Woerjanto Soemardi, MSE., Ph.D.

MUHAMAD FAUZAN GHASSANI

25019037

PROGRAM PASCASARJANA MAGISTER TEKNIK SIPIL

KELOMPOK KEAHLIAN REKAYASA DAN MANAJEMEN INFRASTUKTUR

FAKULTAS TEKNIK SIPIL DAN LINGKUNGAN

INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

2019
 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS

Source : Quantitative Analysis for Management 11th Edition by Barry Render, Ralph M. Stair,
and Michael E. Hanna.

2-20
David Mashley teaches two undergraduate statistics courses at Kansas College. The class for
Statistics 201 consists of 7 sophomores and 3 juniors. The more advanced course, Statistics
301, has 2 sophomores and 8 juniors enrolled. As an example of a business sampling
technique, Professor Mashley randomly selects, from the stack of Statistics 201 registration
cards, the class card of one student and then places that card back in the stack. If that student
was a sophomore, Mashley draws another card from the Statistics 201 stack; if not, he
randomly draws a card from the Statistics 301 group. Are these two draws independent
events? What is the probability of
(a) a junior’s name on the first draw?
(b) a junior’s name on the second draw, given that a sophomore’s name was drawn first?
(c) a junior’s name on the second draw, given that a junior’s name was drawn first?
(d) a sophomore’s name on both draws?
(e) a junior’s name on both draws?
(f) one sophomore’s name and one junior’s name on the two draws, regardless of order
drawn?
Solution :
Junior 3 3
(a) P(Junior) = Junior+Sophomore = 3+7 = 10 = 𝟎, 𝟑

Merupakan simple probability sehingga dapat dicari dengan menggunakan cara klasik
atau metode logika dari peristiwa independent.
(b) P(A) = Probability of junior 2nd draw in 201 stack = 0,3
P(B) = Probability of sophomore 1st draw in 201 stack = 0,7
P(AB)
P(A|B) = P(B)
= P(A) = 𝟎, 𝟑

Merupakan conditional probability dari 2 peristiwa independent.

(c) P(A) = Probability of junior 2nd draw in 301 stack = 0,8
P(B) = Probability of junior 1st draw in 201 stack = 0,3
P(AB)
P(A|B) = P(B)
= P(A) = 𝟎, 𝟖

Merupakan conditional probability dari 2 peristiwa independent.

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 (d) P(A) = Probability of sophomore in 201 stack
7 7
P(AA) = P(A) × P(A) = 10 × 10 = 𝟎, 𝟒𝟗

Merupakan joint probability dari 2 peristiwa independent.

(e) P(A) = Pobability of junior in 201 stack
P(B) = Probability of junior in 301 stack
3 8
P(AB) = P(A) × P(B) = 10 × 10 = 𝟎, 𝟐𝟒

Merupakan joint probability dari 2 peristiwa independent.

(f) P(1 sophomore & 1 junior) = (0,7 × 0,3) + (0,2 × 0,3) = 𝟎, 𝟐𝟕
Merupakan gabungan joint probability dengan kondisi tertentu.

2-23
Ace Machine Works estimates that the probability its lathe tool is properly adjusted is 0.8.
When the lathe is properly adjusted, there is a 0.9 probability that the parts produced pass
inspection. If the lathe is out of adjustment, however, the probability of a good part being
produced is only 0.2. A part randomly chosen is inspected and found to be acceptable. At this
point, what is the posterior probability that the lathe tool is properly adjusted?
Solution :
P(B|A)P(A) 0,8×0,9
P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A′ )P(A′) = (0,8×0,9)+(0,2×0,2) = 𝟎, 𝟗𝟒𝟕

Digunakan Bayes’ Theorem karena dibutuhkan informasi tambahan berdasarkan data yang
ada untuk mendapatkan suatu nilai probabilitas.

2-24
The Boston South Fifth Street Softball League consists of three teams: Mama’s Boys, team 1;
the Killers, team 2; and the Machos, team 3. Each team plays the other teams just once during
the season. The win–loss record for the past 5 years is as follows:

Each row represents the number of wins over the past 5 years. Mama’s Boys beat the Killers
3 times, beat the Machos 4 times, and so on.
(a) What is the probability that the Killers will win every game next year?
(b) What is the probability that the Machos will win at least one game next year?
(c) What is the probability that Mama’s Boys will win exactly one game next year?
 (d) What is the probability that the Killers will win fewer than two games next year?
Solution :
Probability Table P(X)
WINNER (1) (2) (3)
Mama's Boys
X 60% 80%
(1)
The Killers
40% X 20%
(2)
The Machos
20% 80% X
(3)

(a) P(2) = 0,4 × 0,2 = 𝟎, 𝟎𝟖

Merupakan joint probability dari dependent events.
(b) P(3) = (0,2 + 0,8) − (0,8 × 0,2) = 𝟎, 𝟖𝟒
Merupakan joint probability dari dependent events dengan kondisi tertentu.
(c) P(1) = (0,6 × 0,2) + (0,8 × 0,4) = 𝟎, 𝟒𝟒
Merupakan joint probability dari dependent events dengan kondisi tertentu.
(d) P(3) = 1 − (0,4 × 0,2) = 𝟎, 𝟗𝟐
Merupakan joint probability dari dependent events dengan kondisi tertentu.

2-33
Gary Schwartz is the top salesman for his company. Records indicate that he makes a sale
on 70% of his sales calls. If he calls on four potential clients, what is the probability that he
makes exactly 3 sales? What is the probability that he makes exactly 4 sales?
Solution :
n! 4!
P(3 successes sales in 4 sales) = r!(n−r)! pr qn−r = 3!(4−3)! × 0,73 × 0,34−3 = 𝟎, 𝟒𝟏𝟏𝟔
n! 4!
P(4 successes sales in 4 sales) = r!(n−r)! pr qn−r = 4!(4−4)! × 0,73 × 0,34−4 = 𝟎, 𝟐𝟒𝟎𝟏

Karena dari problem diatas memiliki setiap sifat data atau karakteristik yang memenuhi untuk
Bernoulli Process, maka solusi untuk problem diatas adalah dengan menggunakan Binomial
Distribution.

2-37
An industrial oven used to cure sand cores for a factory manufacturing engine blocks for small
cars is able to maintain fairly constant temperatures. The temperature range of the oven
follows a normal distribution with a mean of 450°F and a standard deviation of 25°F. Leslie
Larsen, president of the factory, is concerned about the large number of defective cores that

3
have been produced in the past several months. If the oven gets hotter than 475°F, the core
is defective. What is the probability that the oven will cause a core to be defective? What is
the probability that the temperature of the oven will range from 460° to 470°F?
Solution :

X−µ 475−450
Z475 = = = 1 (lihat tabel)
σ 25

So, the probability that the oven will cause a core to be defective = 1 − 0,84134 = 𝟎, 𝟏𝟓𝟖𝟔𝟔

X−µ 470−450
Z470 = = = 0,8
σ 25
 X−µ 460−450
Z460 = = = 0,4
σ 25

So, the probability that the temperature of the oven will range from 460° to 470°F = 0,8 − 0,4 =
𝟎, 𝟒
Karena dari problem diatas diketahui nilai rata-rata dan nilai standar deviasi dari data tersebut,
maka dapat digunakan Normal Distribution Function.

2-39
Susan Williams has been the production manager of Medical Suppliers, Inc., for the past 17
years. Medical Suppliers, Inc., is a producer of bandages and arm slings. During the past 5
years, the demand for No-Stick bandages has been fairly constant. On the average, sales
have been about 87,000 packages of No-Stick. Susan has reason to believe that the
distribution of No-Stick follows a normal curve, with a standard deviation of 4,000 packages.
What is the probability that sales will be less than 81,000 packages?
Solution :
X−µ 81000−87000
Z= = = −1,5 (lihat tabel)
σ 4000

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So, the probability that sales will be less than 81,000 packages = 1 − 0,93319 = 𝟎, 𝟎𝟔𝟔𝟖
Karena dari problem diatas diketahui nilai rata-rata dan nilai standar deviasi dari data tersebut,
maka dapat digunakan Normal Distribution Function.

2-42
A new integrated computer system is to be installed worldwide for a major corporation. Bids
on this project are being solicited, and the contract will be awarded to one of the bidders. As
a part of the proposal for this project, bidders must specify how long the project will take. There
will be a significant penalty for finishing late. One potential contractor determines that the
average time to complete a project of this type is 40 weeks with a standard deviation of 5
weeks. The time required to complete this project is assumed to be normally distributed.
(a) If the due date of this project is set at 40 weeks, what is the probability that the
contractor will have to pay a penalty (i.e., the project will not be finished on schedule)?
(b) If the due date of this project is set at 43 weeks, what is the probability that the
contractor will have to pay a penalty (i.e., the project will not be finished on schedule)?
(c) If the bidder wishes to set the due date in the proposal so that there is only a 5%
chance of being late (and consequently only a 5% chance of having to pay a penalty),
what due date should be set?
Solution :
X−µ 40−40
(a) Z = σ
= 5
= 0 (lihat tabel)
 So, the probability that the contractor will have to pay a penalty if due date of this
project is set at 40 weeks = 1 − 0,5 = 𝟎, 𝟓
Karena dari problem diatas diketahui nilai rata-rata dan nilai standar deviasi dari data
tersebut, maka dapat digunakan Normal Distribution Function.

X−µ 43−40
(b) Z = = = 0,6 (lihat tabel)
σ 5

So, the probability that the contractor will have to pay a penalty if due date of this
project is set at 43 weeks = 1 − 0,72575 = 𝟎, 𝟐𝟕𝟒𝟐𝟓
Karena dari problem diatas diketahui nilai rata-rata dan nilai standar deviasi dari data
tersebut, maka dapat digunakan Normal Distribution Function.

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 (c)
Between

(0,95543−0,95)
Z = 1,6 − (0,95543−0,94520) × (1,6 − 1,7) = 1,6531

Dari nilai Z diatas, maka 𝑥 = 40 + 5(1,6531) = 𝟒𝟖, 𝟐𝟔𝟓𝟒 weeks

Karena dari problem diatas diketahui nilai rata-rata dan nilai standar deviasi dari data
tersebut, maka dapat digunakan Normal Distribution Function.

2-46
A particular test for the presence of steroids is to be used after a professional track meet. If
steroids are present, the test will accurately indicate this 95% of the time. However, if steroids
are not present, the test will indicate this 90% of the time (so it is wrong 10% of the time and
predicts the presence of steroids). Based on past data, it is believed that 2% of the athletes
do use steroids. This test is administered to one athlete, and the test is positive for steroids.
What is the probability that this person actually used steroids?
Solution :
P(B|A)P(A) 0,02×0,95
P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A′ )P(A′) = (0,02×0,95)+(0,98×0,1) = 𝟎, 𝟏𝟔𝟐𝟑𝟗

Digunakan Bayes’ Theorem karena dibutuhkan informasi tambahan berdasarkan data yang
ada untuk mendapatkan suatu nilai probabilitas.
 2-49
Burger City is a large chain of fast-food restaurants specializing in gourmet hamburgers. A
mathematical model is now used to predict the success of new restaurants based on location
and demographic information for that area. In the past, 70% of all restaurants that were
opened were successful. The mathematical model has been tested in the existing restaurants
to determine how effective it is. For the restaurants that were successful, 90% of the time the
model predicted they would be, while 10% of the time the model predicted a failure. For the
restaurants that were not successful, when the mathematical model was applied, 20% of the
time it incorrectly predicted a successful restaurant while 80% of the time it was accurate and
predicted an unsuccessful restaurant. If the model is used on a new location and predicts the
restaurant will be successful, what is the probability that it actually is successful?
Solution :
P(B|A)P(A) 0,7×0,9
P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A′ )P(A′) = (0,7×0,9)+(0,3×0,2) = 𝟎, 𝟗𝟏𝟑𝟎𝟒

Digunakan Bayes’ Theorem karena dibutuhkan informasi tambahan berdasarkan data yang
ada untuk mendapatkan suatu nilai probabilitas.

2-50
A mortgage lender attempted to increase its business by marketing its subprime mortgage.
This mortgage is designed for people with a less-than-perfect credit rating, and the interest
rate is higher to offset the extra risk. In the past year, 20% of these mortgages resulted in
foreclosure as customers defaulted on their loans. A new screening system has been
developed to determine whether to approve customers for the subprime loans. When the
system is applied to a credit application, the system will classify the application as “Approve
for loan” or “Reject for loan.” When this new system was applied to recent customers who had
defaulted on their loans, 90% of these customers were classified as “Reject.” When this same
system was applied to recent loan customers who had not defaulted on their loan payments,
70% of these customers were classified as “Approve for loan.”
(a) If a customer did not default on a loan, what is the probability that the rating system
would have classified the applicant in the reject category?
(b) If the rating system had classified the applicant in the reject category, what is the
probability that the customer would not default on a loan?
Solution :
(a) 1 − 0,7 = 𝟎, 𝟑
Merupakan simple probability sehingga dapat dicari dengan menggunakan cara klasik
atau metode logika.

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 P(B|A)P(A) 0,8×0,3
(b) P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A′ )P(A′ ) = (0,8×0,3)+(0,2×0,9) = 𝟎, 𝟓𝟕𝟏𝟒

Digunakan Bayes’ Theorem karena dibutuhkan informasi tambahan berdasarkan data

yang ada untuk mendapatkan suatu nilai probabilitas.