On this website you can find information and guidance from WHO regarding the

current outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that was first reported from
Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019. Please visit this page for daily updates.

WHO is working closely with global experts, governments and partners to rapidly
expand scientific knowledge on this new virus, to track the spread and virulence
of the virus, and to provide advice to countries and individuals on measures to
protect health and prevent the spread of this outbreak.

Coronavirus outbreak: what’s next?

Experts weigh up the best- and worst-case scenarios as the World Health Organization
declares a global health emergency.

Dyani Lewis





Chinese authorities have put protective measures in place as the new

coronavirus spreads.Credit: Kevin Frayer/Getty

Scientists and health authorities around the world are racing to halt the spread of a
deadly virus that emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December. Thousands
of people have already contracted the new coronavirus, which causes respiratory
illness. The death toll is at 213, and is rising daily. On 30 January, the World
Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a “public-health emergency of
international concern” — an alarm it reserves for events that pose a risk to multiple
countries and which requires a coordinated international response.
China virus: latest news on spreading
infection
Crucial details about the virus and how it spreads are still unknown, but experts are
considering best- and worst-case scenarios on the basis of previous epidemics and
what scientists already know.

How many people will the virus infect?

Chinese authorities have locked down cities at the centre of the epidemic, and
researchers were quick to share data on the virus with the World Health
Organization and researchers. But the case numbers have been rising, and surged
past 9,000 in the past day, mostly in China. This has led to one prediction that the
virus could infect about 39,000 of the 30 million people living in the region of
Wuhan. “It seems like the virus has got out of hand in China, spread too far, too
quickly to really be contained,” says Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of
Queensland in Brisbane, Australia.

In the best case, fewer people will be infected because the effects of the control
measures will start kicking in, says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the
University of Hong Kong. But it’s too early to tell whether efforts to quarantine
people, and the widespread use of face masks, are working. The incubation period
for the virus — up to 14 days — is longer than most control measures have been in
place, he says.
China coronavirus: Six questions scientists
are asking
In a worst-case scenario, some 190,000 people could be infected in Wuhan,
according to another prediction model. Scientists are particularly concerned about
fresh outbreaks emerging outside China. The virus has already spread in small,
localized clusters in Vietnam, Japan, Germany and the United States, but
authorities have been quick to isolate the people affected. Fewer than 100 cases
have been recorded outside China as of 30 January.