Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Aviation - Sector Update 19-11-19 PDF
Aviation - Sector Update 19-11-19 PDF
Aviation - Sector Update 19-11-19 PDF
SBICAP Research on Bloomberg SBICAP <GO>, www.emis.com Please refer to our disclaimer given at the last page.
Sector Update - Aviation SBICAP Securities Ltd
Exhibit 2: Domestic passenger volume growth and PLF
Monthly YTD
Change Change Change
Oct-19 Oct-18 Sep-19 FY20 FY19
YoY (%) M oM (%) YoY (%)
Dom estic
Indigo
Pax (Nos) 5,842,000 5,074,853 15.1 5,559,031 5.1 39,874,187 33,722,798 18.2
PLF (%) 85.1 83.1 1.994 86.5 (1.4) 87.6 86.7 0.9
SpiceJet
Pax (Nos) 2,005,000 1,382,010 45.1 1,700,367 17.9 12,505,549 9,832,326 27.2
PLF (%) 90.0 90.8 (0.8) 93.0 (3.0) 93.2 93.6 (0.4)
GoAir
Pax (Nos) 1,378,000 1,047,651 31.5 1,326,836 3.9 9,297,351 7,176,686 29.5
PLF (%) 83.1 84.1 (1.0) 86.7 (3.6) 90.4 87.6 2.8
Vistara
Pax (Nos) 669,000 434,761 53.9 664,391 0.7 4,475,147 3,131,580 42.9
PLF (%) 77.9 79.7 (1.8) 80.3 (2.4) 82.9 84.2 (1.3)
Air Asia
Pax (Nos) 803,000 643,358 24.8 725,467 10.7 5,280,605 4,063,728 29.9
PLF (%) 83.0 83.7 (0.7) 84.7 (1.7) 88.1 80.2 7.9
Air India Group & Others
Pax (Nos) 1,619,000 1,511,365 7.1 1,556,908 4.0 11,237,852 10,576,532 6.3
Total dom estic
Pax (Nos) 12,316,000 11,845,000 4.0 11,533,000 6.8 82,774,000 80,848,000 2.4
PLF (Nos)* 84.0 83.0 1.0 85.5 (1.5) 87.3 88.7 (1.4)
Source: DGCA, SSL, * Oct’ 19 industry PLF numbers are taken as an average of all reported in DGCA
Note: YTDPLFs of FY20 are only till Sep nos
100%
11.7%
14.7% 16.3%
75% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8%
25%
11.5% 11.2% 8.8%
12.6% 12.6% 11.9%
0%
Sep-19 Oct-19 Oct-18
95
90
85
(%)
80
75
Jul-19
Jan-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Apr-19
Oct-19
Feb-19
May-19
PLF - Indigo (%) PLF - Spicejet (%) PLF - Go Air (%)
PLF - Vistara (%) PLF - Air Asia (%)
Source: DGCA, SSL
3
(YoY change in PLFs)
(3)
(6)
IndiGo SJ Industry*
Source: DGCA, SSL, * Oct’19 industry numbers are taken as an average of all reported in DGCA
Exhibit 6: IndiGo yields up 8% in Q2FY20 Exhibit 7: SpiceJet yields up 1.6% YoY in Q2FY20
4.20 4.30
3.90 4.05
(Rs / RPKM)
(Rs / RPKM)
3.60 3.80
3.30 3.55
3.00 3.30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
25.0 20.0
20.0 10.0
(YoY growth(%))
(YoY growth(%))
International
15.0 0.0 Jet Airways
Domestic
capacity yet
capacity
to be
10.0 growth has (10.0) replaced by
fallen from
peers hence
highs, which
showing a
5.0 refelects in (20.0) de-growth
softening of
YoY
pax growth
0.0 (30.0)
Sep-17
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Sep-16
Sep-18
Sep-19
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jan-18
Jan-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Nov-16
Jan-17
Nov-17
Nov-18
Jan-19
May-17
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-19
May-18
May-19
Mar-17
Mar-18
May-18
Mar-19
May-17
May-19
Exhibit 9: 24% of total capacity of IndiGo is in International Exhibit 10: 28% of the total capacity in International for SJ
100% 100%
75% 75%
71%
72%
75%
76%
76%
76%
77%
77%
77%
77%
77%
78%
78%
79%
76%
77%
79%
81%
81%
81%
81%
81%
81%
82%
83%
85%
86%
86%
50% 50%
25%
25%
29%
28%
25%
24%
24%
24%
23%
23%
23%
23%
23%
22%
22%
21%
24%
23%
21%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
18%
17%
Oct-18 15%
Sep-18 14%
Aug-18 14%
0%
0%
Feb-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Nov-18
Dec-18
Apr-19
Jul-19
Jan-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
May-19
100
90
80
(%)
70
60
50
Feb-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Indigo (%) Go Air (%) SpiceJet (%) Vistara (%)
Exhibit 10: Domestic ATF price down by c13% on average during Oct’19 & Nov’19
80,000
FY19 Avg of Rs 68/Ltr
70,000
YTDFY20 Avg of Rs 65/Ltr
(Rs /KLtr)
60,000
FY18 Avg of Rs55.5/Ltr
50,000
FY17 Avg of Rs49.9/Ltr
40,000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: IOCL,SSL
Corporate Office:
Marathon Futurex, A & B Wing, 12th Floor, N. M. Joshi Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai -400013.
Tel.: 91-22-4227 3300/01 | Fax: 91-22-4227 3335 | Email: sbicapresearch@sbicapsec.com | www.sbismart.com
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report (“Report”) accurately reflect the personal views of the research analysts (“Analysts”) employed by
SBICAP Securities Limited (SSL) about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or company(ies) or securities. This report has been prepared based
upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. I/We also certify that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
The Analysts engaged in preparation of this Report or his/her relative:-
(a) do not have any financial interests in the subject company mentioned in this Report; (b) do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the
subject company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report; and (c) do not have any
material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the Report.
The Analysts engaged in preparation of this Report:-
(a) have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months; (b) have not managed or co-managed public offering
of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months; (c) have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months; (d) have not received any compensation for products or
services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months; (e) have
not received any compensation or other benefits from the subjectcompany or third party in connection with the Report; (f) have not served as an
officer, director or employee of the subject company; and (g) are not engaged in market-making activity for the subject company.