ESTIMATION OF THE ECONOMIC ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF MICRO-CHP

AND HEAT PUMPS BASED ON THE STATUS OF THE RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

SECTOR IN GERMANY

L. Spitalnya*, J.M.A. Myrzika, T. Mehlhornb

a
TU Dortmund University - Institute of Energy Systems, Energy Efficiency and
Energy Economics, Emil-Figge-Str. 68, 44227, Dortmund (NRW), Germany,
b
RWE Effizienz GmbH, Flamingoweg 1, 44139, Dortmund (NRW), Germany
*corresponding author: lukas.spitalny@tu-dortmund.de

The European Union sets itself a target of sav-

ABSTRACT
In order to reduce the impact of the anthropo-
genic climate effect, the transition to a high effi-
cient and sustainable energy system is needed.
In particular, the heating sector shows a large
potential for efficiency measures. Besides
increasing requirements for the thermal
insulation of buildings, in order to reduce the
residential thermal energy demand, more
efficient technologies as micro combined heat
and power generation units as well as heat
pumps become increasingly important in the
German households sector.
Accordingly, this is a very dynamic market with
uncertainties about the diffusion of these
technologies for residential applications.
Furthermore, forecasts of the development just
focus on historic market trends. In order to
forecast the possible market diffusion of the
considered technologies until the year 2020 a
new approach is developed based on the status
of the residential building sector in Germany.
Thereby, the possible market diffusion bases on
the amount of units that are economically viable
for the users, the so called economic
addressable market.
Keywords: heat pumps, micro-CHP, market de-
velopment, German building stock.
INTRODUCTION
The energy consumption in houses, offices,
shops and other buildings makes up in sum
nearly 40 % of the final energy consumption in
the European Union. Two thirds of this energy
consumption is caused by the thermal energy
demand of space heating for residential build-
ings [1]. For example, the heat demand of resi-
dential buildings reached 1,926 PJ in 2010 in
Germany. This is about 74 % of the overall en-
ergy consumption of the households. The car-
bon dioxide (CO2) emission of the private
household sector amounts to 112 million tons in
the year 2012, which is 13.46 % of the overall
CO2 emission in Germany [2]. Hence, efficiency
measures in the private household sector can
lead to a significant reduction of CO 2 emissions
in Germany.
ing 20 % of its primary energy consumption until
2020 [1]. To reach this sophisticated target, the
European Union has defined various measures.
Increasing the requirements for the thermal in-
sulation of residential buildings is one of the
main measures to reduce the energy demand of
the buildings. The Energy Performance of Build-
ing Directive (EPBD) defines the target, that all
new buildings shall be nearly zero-energy build-
ings by 31 December 2020 [3].
One other measure is to increase the efficiency
of the generation of heat and electricity. The use
of condensing boilers and heat pumps (HP)
leads to an increasing efficiency in the residen-
tial sector [4]. Furthermore, the cogeneration of
heat and electricity can make an important con-
tribution to increase the energy efficiency [1].
Especially, in the residential sector small com-
bined heat and power generation (micro-CHP)
units are often discussed.
The market for this technologies is a very new
and dynamic market with uncertainties about the
diffusion in residential applications. The potential
for the use of these technologies in Germany
until the year 2020 or further was estimated in
various studies [5-9]. The studies either describe
the development potential in an overall future
energy demand for the technologies or give an
aggregated number of applicable units. Howev-
er, the studies do not provide information for
which type of residential building the units can
be applied in detail.
In order to estimate the potential for the use of
HP and micro-CHP units until the year 2020 an
approach is developed that bases on the status
of the residential building sector in Germany.
For this reason, the current situation of the resi-
dential building sector was analysed as well as
the anticipated effects of the requirements from
the EPBD and the German energy saving regu-
lation (EnEV) [10], concerning nearly zero-
energy buildings. Based on a selection of typical
micro-CHP and HP systems, the profitability of
the systems was calculated for various building
clusters using the annuity method. Thereby, the
capital-related costs, the consumption costs and
incoming payments as well as incentives are
considered. Thus, the economic addressable
market for the regarded technologies was de-
termined until the year 2020. In addition, the pa-
per points out the potential for the carbon diox-
ide reduction, if the economic addressable mar-
ket would be reached completely.
METHODOLOGY
The economic addressable market describes
the amount of units, which are economically via-
ble for the users. Fig. 1 shows an overview of
the considered input data and factors that influ-
ence the potential of the economic addressable
market.
BUILDING SECTOR TECHNOLOGIES
RISING ENERGY
number of buildings investment cost COSTS
type of building energy use
construction year
thermal heat demand
refurbishment
living space
SHORT-TERM
POTENTIAL 2020
POTENTIAL
LEGAL CONDITIONS
EnEV
EPBD
KWK-G ENERGY SOURCE
EEWärmeG costs CHANGING
further incentives
BUILDING
CO2-emissions STRUCTURE
Figure 1: Input data and considered factors
The costs of energy use of a specific heating
system depends mainly on the thermal heat
demand of a building. Thus, the investigation
mainly bases on the status of the residential
building sector in Germany, which is described
in the following chapter in detail. In addition, the
changing building structure until 2020 is consid-
ered.
For the investigation of the economic addressa-
ble market of HP and micro-CHP units, the in-
vestment costs of these units were considered
for the new construction of buildings as well as
for the improvement of heating systems in exist-
ing buildings. The variable costs of the systems
depend on the thermal heat demand and the
costs of the energy sources. For this, current as
well as rising energy costs are considered. In
Germany, various incentives are provided for
the use of the HP and micro-CHP units. Thus,
these incentives are also considered.
The economic addressable market is estimated
by comparing the costs of using HP and micro-
CHP units in the various building types to a ref-
erence heating system. The cost efficiency of a
HP or micro-CHP unit is strongly influenced by
the used reference system. In the case of build-
ing refurbishment an old heating system with
low efficiency and high variable costs is re-
placed by a new technology. It is assumed that
the costumers have the choice between using a
high efficient condensing boiler, a HP or a mi-
cro-CHP unit. Since, condensing boiler are state
of the art heating systems, they are considered
as reference system. Further preferences from
the customers, as a high affinity towards a cer-
tain technology, are not considered. Hence, fol-
lowing cases are taken into account for the es-
timation:
 Refurbishment of single-family-houses (SFH)
 Refurbishment of multi-family-houses (MFH)
 New construction of single-family-houses
(SFH)
 New construction of multi-family-houses (MFH)
For each of these cases, the cost efficiency of
the use of HP and micro-CHP units is compared
to the reference heating system. Fig. 2 shows
the method of the estimation.
REFURBISHMENT ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
 number of improved heating  annuity of the
ECONOMIC
SALE VOLUMES systems per year investment and capital
ADDRESSABLE
CONVENTIONAL  heating systems in the building related costs
MARKET FOR
HEATING stock  comparison to the
EACH BUILDING
SYSTEMS NEW CONSTRUCTION reference system
 number of needed buildings
TYPE
per year
Figure 2: Method of the estimation
Economic Calculation
For the economic calculation the annuity meth-
od, based on VDI 2067 [11], is used. The annui-
ty of the investment cost and the consumption
related costs is estimated for each technology
and each building type.
At first, the annuity factor needs to be deter-
mined. It is given by following equation, where q
is the interest factor and T the observation peri-
od in years.
(1)
The interest factor is assumed to be q = 1.06
and the observation period T = 20 years. The
capital related costs AN,K,B are determined for
every technology N (the reference system, the
HP or micro-CHP unit) and building type B. Eve-
ry investment costs A0,i for the installation are
considered as well as investment grants Ag and
the costs for a planned replacement Are.
∑ (2)
If during the observation period a replacement of
system parts is needed, this needs to be
considered as cash value for the capital related
costs. The cash value for the planned
replacement Are is given by the costs of the
replacement at Are,Tn at the time TN. If a change
in the replacement costs is predictable, this can
be considered by the price changing factor rRE.
 The annuity of the consumption costs is calcu-
(3)
lated for each building type B and each heating
system N. For this, the living space LSB and the
The investment costs of every heating system specific thermal heat demand qH,B for each
not only include the heating system itself but al- building type is considered. Furthermore, the ef-
so the installation costs need to be considered. fort figure ei, which is the ratio of energy effort
Following investment costs are important: and power requirement, was considered for
(4) heating as well as for domestic hot water and
also the energy rates pE,i were taken into ac-
Table 1: Considered investment costs. count. The consumption related costs of the first
INVESTMENT COSTS
year for the various building types and technolo-
A0,HS Heating system (reference, HP, micro-CHP)
gies are given by following equation.
Heating surfaces like Radiators or floor heat- (7)
A0,S
ing
A0,P Piping system Thus, for every building type of the building
stock, the annuity of the reference system and
A0,C Chimney (adaption or new construction)
for using a HP and micro-CHP system can be
A0,CC Connection and further construction costs calculated with the capital and the consumption
For the various cases, different investment costs related costs:
are considered. For example, in general, in the (8)
case of improving existing heating systems the
chimney needs to be adapted if a condensing For every building type the annuity of using a
boiler is used and the heating surfaces needs to HP or micro-CHP unit is compared to the annui-
be rebuilt if a HP is used, respectively. This is ty of the reference system. The use of a HP or a
due to the lower flow temperature of the HP and micro-CHP unit is cost efficient, if the annuity is
thus a floor heating is appropriate. In the case of lower than the annuity of the reference system:
new construction, the costs for the heating sur- (9)
faces and the piping system are considered for
every case [12,13]. The following table (10)
summarizes the investment costs for the
considered cases.
Legal Conditions
Table 2: Investment costs for the cases.
For new buildings, various legal requirements
INVESTMENT COST have to be met. Beside the mentioned require-
A0,HS A0,S A0,P A0,C A0,CC ments on the thermal insulation of buildings, in
Thermal refurbishment Germany new residential buildings have to use
reference system yes no no yes yes renewable energy sources for thermal space
HP yes yes yes no yes heating [19]. The share of thermal heat that
micro-CHP unit yes no no no yes needs to be supplied by renewable energy
New construction sources depends on the used technology, which
reference system yes yes yes yes yes can be seen from Fig. 3.
HP yes yes yes no yes
micro-CHP unit yes yes yes yes yes
Besides the investment costs, the consumption
related costs have an important share of the
overall costs. The annuity of the consumption
related costs AN,V is determined by the con-
sumption related costs of the first year AN,V1,B
Figure 3: Obligation for the use of renewable
and the price dynamic annuity factor baV.
energy sources in new buildings [19]
(5)
Accordingly, in the case of new construction, the
reference system is a condensing boiler with a
The price dynamic annuity factor considers certain share of solar thermal energy.
changing in the consumption related costs that
are mainly caused by increasing energy Further legal conditions affect the consumption
rates rER. related costs of the considered technologies.
The use of efficient heating systems is support-
( ) ed in Germany in various ways. At first, the
(6)
combined heat and power act (KWK-G) obliges
the network operator to connect CHP units, and
to accommodate and to remunerate the gener-
ated electrical energy. The remuneration cEEX insulation become more important and get more
bases on the KWK-Index Germany from the Eu- stricter over the time. At the moment the EnEV
ropean Energy Exchange (EEX). Additionally, a in the version from 2009 in particular, defines
bonus cKWK for the feed in of the generated elec- specific requirements for the thermal insulation
trical energy for the maximum period tKWK is of buildings in Germany. Table 5 gives a brief
paid. Furthermore, an additional fee is paid for overview of the characteristics of the
the avoided grid utilisation on the superior grid construction eras [14,15].
levels cNNE [20]. The German energy tax act Table 5: Characteristics of the construction eras
(EnergieStG) provides a refund of the tax cMÖSt [15].
on the used gas for CHP units [21]. The follow-
ing table summarizes the considered incentives. ERA CONSTRUCTION CHARACTERISTIC
< 1859 pre-industrial time, no legal requirements
Table 3: Considered incentives for electrical en- 1860 - growing industrialisation, standardisation of con-
ergy from micro-CHP [20-22]. 1918 struction technologies
cKWK 0.0511 €/kWh 1919 - industrialised production of building materials, be-
tKWK 10 years 1948 ginning of national building standards
cEEX 0.05 €/kWh
1949 -
cNNE 0.01 €/kWh post-war period, very simply building methods
1957
cMÖSt 0.0055 €/kWh
1958 - DIN 4108 with requirements on the thermal insula-
In addition, the Federal Office of Economics and 1968 tion come into force
Export Control (BAFA) in Germany provides
fundings for the considered technologies [23]. 1969 - more industrial building methods, through first oil
1978 crisis saving heat energy get more important
These were considered as investment grants.
1979 - first thermal protection regulation come into force (1.
Energy rates
1983 Wärmeschutzverordnung)
The energy rate as well as the assumed rising
rate for the various technologies are relevant for 1984 - second thermal protection regulation (WSchV 84)
1994 come into force, introduction of low energy houses
the consumption related costs. Also, a lot of en-
ergy supplying companies have a special tariff 1995 - third thermal protection regulation (WSchV 95),
for the use of HP, which is lower compared to 2001 come into force
the standard tariff. The energy rates are average
2002 - energy savings regulation (EnEV 2002) come into
values from local energy supplying companies. 2009 force, since autumn 2009 (EnEV 2009)
Table 4 shows the assumed values, exclusive
the value added tax (VAT). According to the construction characteristics, the
Table 4: Energy rate and assumed rising rate, existing residential buildings in Germany are
excluding VAT [29-34]. clustered into the construction year classes. The
following figure shows the number of buildings
ENERGY ENERGY RATE ENERGY PRICE
and the share of existing buildings in the
SOURCE [€/kWh] CHANGING FAC-
building stock. It can be seen that most of the
TOR [%]
existing buildings are constructed in the time
oil 0.069 2.1
before 1978. Over 65 % of the SFH and over
gas 0.059 2.1
77 % of the MFH are constructed before this
electrical
energy
0.217 1.9 year.
electrical
0.146 1.9
energy for HP

BUILDING STOCK IN GERMANY

The residential building sector in Germany is
characterized by an inhomogeneous structure of
existing buildings. The construction methods
changed due to new materials and new
construction technologies.
Construction eras
First buildings were constructed and built on
experiences of local craftsmen with the use of
locally available materials. The further
expansion of the cities lead to a standardisation
of construction principles. In the second half of
th
the 20 century, requirements on the thermal Figure 4: Building stock in Germany [15]
Thermal heat demand
The thermal heat demand of buildings is essen-
tially caused by the transmission heat losses
through the building shell. The transmission
losses of the separate building surfaces, as
walls, roof, and base plate depend on the heat
transition coefficients of the used materials. Due
to changing materials in the different construc-
tion eras, the thermal heat demand changed
through the years. With beginning requirements
on the thermal insulation, the thermal heat de-
mand of the buildings decreases. Furthermore,
a certain share of buildings were refurbished
during the last decades. The classification of the
extent of refurbishment is:
 no thermal refurbishment
 low thermal refurbishment
 mainly thermal refurbishment
Buildings without any refurbishment are in the
first classification as well as buildings that are
refurbished before 1977, because refurbishment
methods before this time are without relevance.
If essential building parts, but a maximum of two
measures on the building shell, are refurbished,
this is classified as a low thermal refurbishment.
The refurbishment of main parts of the building
shell is the third classification [14].
Fig. 5 shows the specific thermal heat demand
of buildings for the classification of refurbish-
ment and the construction eras. The decreasing
thermal heat demand of newer buildings can be
seen. Also, the impact of refurbishment on the
specific thermal heat demand can be deducted.
Figure 5: Specific thermal heat demand [14]
From Fig. 6 can be seen that the major part of
the buildings is not refurbished. 5 % of the SFH
that were constructed before 1978 are not, 70 %
low and only 25 % mainly refurbished. From
MFH are 4% not, 66 % low and 30 % mainly re-
furbished. As buildings of the last two decades
already are sufficient thermal insulated, they
were not or only low thermal refurbished.
Figure 6: Share of refurbished buildings in Ger-
many [14]
The percentage of yearly refurbished buildings
is very low and is 1 % of buildings each year
[14]. To reach almost climate-neutral buildings
until 2050 a share of 2 % per annum is needed
[16].
Heating systems
The rate of the improvement of heating systems
in existing buildings is between 1 % and 5 %.
Compared to the recently sold heating systems
a rate of 2.97 % for the improvement of heating
systems is assumed. For the new construction
of residential buildings a relatively constant
number of needed buildings is assumed. By
2015 a decrease of needed single-family-
houses of 5 % and a decrease of needed multi-
familiy-houses of 1 % is assumed. [17]
With the number of needed buildings and the
improvement of heating systems, the demand
for heating systems is estimated until 2020:
Figure 7: Needed heating systems until 2020
It can be seen that the improvement of heating
systems has a huge share of needed heating
systems. Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 show the share of
heating systems in existing buildings. In SFH the
majority of the heating systems are gas and oil
based. The share of oil based heating systems
decreases for the new construction of buildings.
Figure 8: Share of heating systems in existing
SFH in Germany [18]
Figure 9: Share of heating systems in existing
MFH in Germany [18]
Increasing requirements from EnEV and EPBD
lead to a decrease of the thermal heat demand
of the buildings. Hence, it is assumed that new
buildings in 2020 have a specific thermal heat
demand of 20 kWh/m²∙a. For the years until
2020 a constantly decrease of the current spe-
cific thermal heat demand to this value is as-
sumed.
TECHNOLOGIES
For the evaluation of the economic addressable
market, fitting HP and micro-CHP systems for
the building types are selected. The annual per-
formance factor is shown in Table 6 for refur-
bishment and the new construction of buildings.
For the new construction of buildings a higher
performance factor can be achieved due to a
better adjustment on the heat distribution sys-
tem and the hydraulic calibration. The effort fig-
ure e is than the reciprocal value of the perfor-
mance factor.
Table 6: Annual performance factor heat pumps
[24,25].
kWhth/kWhel
HEAT PUMP
NEW
SYSTEM
REFURBISHMENT CONSTRUCTION
brine-to-water 3.2 4
water-to-water 3 3.5
air-to-water 2.5 3
The effort figure for condensing boiler and
micro-CHP systems is shown in following table.
Table 7: effort figure [12,13].
SYSTEM kWhfuel/kWhth
condensing
1.06
boiler
micro-CHP 1.67
The full load hours tVL of the micro-CHP unit is
assumed to be 4,000 h, the share of own
consumption zEV of the generated electrical
energy is 0.6 [26]. For the part of electrical
energy generation an efficiency of 30 % is
assumed, with an effort figure of eCHP,el of 3.33,
respectively. Because micro-CHP units do not
cover the full thermal heat demand of a building,
an additional thermal heater is needed and con-
sidered for the cost calculation. For the addi-
tional heater the same effort figure eADD as for a
condensing boiler is assumed. The service life
of the engine of the CHP-engine is the most
crucial factor. Because micro-CHP units are not
widely spread as heating system for residential
buildings, long-term experiences of the service
life are not available. The service life of the
engine is between 30,000 and 100,000
operating hours, whereby CHP units with higher
nominal power have a longer service life [27].
According to this, it is assumed that the engine
of the micro-CHP unit needs to be changed after
10 years. This is also considered for the capital
related cost.
According to the legal conditions, the calculation
of the consumption related costs needs to be
adapted for micro-CHP units, which is shown by
following equation.
( )
[ (( (11)
)
( ))]
CO2 Emissions
The calculation of the CO2 emissions of the sys-
tem bases on their effort figures and the specific
emissions per energy source.
Table 8: Factors carbon dioxide emissions [28].
ENERGY SOURCE SPECIFIC CO2 EMISSIONS
electrical energy 0.616 kg/kWh
oil 3.109 kg/l
gas 2.43 kg/m³
For oil and gas constant specific emissions can
be assumed. The specific emissions of electrical
energy decreases due to an increasing share of
renewable energy and increasing efficiency of
fossil fuel power plants. Fig. 10 shows the de-
crease of the specific CO2 emissions for electri-
cal energy from the German energy mix until
2010. The data until 2020 are estimated with
straightforward trend. Until 2020 a specific CO2
emission of 478 gCO2/kWhel can be assumed.
Figure 10: Decrease of the electrical energy re-
lated CO2 emissions [2]
With the specific emissions, the CO2 emissions
for the considered technologies can be calculat-
ed, which is shown in Fig. 11. For micro-CHP
units, the generation of the electrical energy is
assumed as CO2 savings in comparison to the
German energy mix. Hence, the CO2 savings
are deducted from the calculated emissions for
heating. The decreasing of the specific emis-
sions for electrical energy impinges both, the HP
and the micro-CHP, respectively. The emissions
from heating decreases for HP whereas the
emissions of micro-CHP increases.
Figure 11: CO2 emissions for the considered
heating systems.
RESULTS OF THE INVESTIGATION
With the described method and the considered
data and input factors, a calculation model was
developed. The economic addressable market
until 2020 can be calculated by means of the
building stock and the resulting annuity for the
considered technologies. For SFH and MFH the
economic addressable market can be estimated
for existing buildings and the new construction
of buildings, respectively.
Fig. 12 shows the number of HP that can be
brought into the market until 2020. Also, the
forecast based on the current expansion is
shown [24].
Figure 12: Economic addressable market until
2020 for HP in residential buildings.
It can be seen that the new construction of SFH
has the highest addressable market for HP
units. In general, the use of HP units for the im-
provement of heating systems is only cost effi-
cient, if an oil-based heating system is replaced,
whereas the replacement of a gas based heat-
ing system is not cost efficient. Due to the small
number of the new construction of MFH, the
marketable quantity of HP is comparatively low.
The addressable market of micro-CHP is shown
in Fig. 13 and also a forecast based on the cur-
rent expansion [35]. As can be seen from the
figure, micro-CHP units are mainly cost efficient
for MFH. An improvement of an existing heating
system is mainly cost efficient, in low or no re-
furbished buildings. Especially, in the new con-
struction of MFH micro-CHP units are cost effi-
cient. Due to the mentioned comparatively low
number of the new construction of MFH, only a
small marketable quantity is estimated. For SFH
no significant potential is estimated initially. For
the new construction of SFH the needed thermal
power is too low for an efficient operation of mi-
cro-CHP units. Hence, technologies with a lower
nominal thermal power, as fuel cell based micro-
CHP, could lead to a significant market poten-
tial. For the improvement of existing heating sys-
tem in SFH the annuity of micro-CHP units is of-
ten just even not higher, than the annuity of the
reference system. Hence, a small deviation in
the considered parameters, like lower invest-
ment or replacement costs or a longer service
life of the micro-CHP engine would lead to a
significant economic addressable market for mi-
cro-CHP units in SFH.

Figure 13: Economic addressable market until
2020 for micro-CHP in residential buildings.
Also, it can be seen that HP and micro-CHP are
not in direct competition in the residential sector.
According to Fig. 14, HP and micro-CHP units
addresses different markets. While HP are more
cost efficient for SFH, micro-CHP units are more
cost efficient for MFH.
MODERNISATION NEW CONSTRUCTION sum
PUMPS
HEAT
proportion of the existing buildings is supplied
with gas for heating.
For the improvement of existing heating systems
HP are only cost efficient, if an existing oil-based
heating system is replaced. Especially, in the
new construction of SFH HP have a high poten-
tial. For micro-CHP the highest potential is in
MFH, for existing buildings as well as for the
new construction. In general, the highest share
of sold heating systems is with two thirds of all
units the improvement of heating systems. Thus,
a considerable potential for further growth can
be exploited. Especially, the results indicate a
development and should not be misinterpreted
as reliable facts. For this to many uncertainties
play an important role. At first, the market ac-
ceptance and the consumer preferences con-
cerning a technology cannot be modelled. Fur-
thermore, the statistic data of the building stock

SFH 23,716 76,988 100,704

8,201
shows typical values for the thermal heat de-
MFH 498 7,703
sum 24,214 84,691  108,905
mand of buildings for the various construction
eras but the consumer related heating behaviour
addressing addressing
different same is not taken into account. Furthermore, devia-
markets markets
tions of buildings from the statistic data are not
MODERNISATION NEW CONSTRUCTION sum
considered. Thus, following factors can influ-
MICRO-

SFH 0 0 0
CHP

MFH 6,618 6,187 12,805 ence on the addressable market:

 12,805
sum 6,618 6,187
Figure 14: Yearly amount of units in 2020.
If the complete addressable market would be
reached, the CO2 emissions could be lowered in
sum by more than 1.8 million tons through HP
and by 1 million tons through micro-CHP units
until 2020, which can be seen in Fig. 15. There-
by, the CO2 savings are compared to the refer-
ence system, the efficient condensing boiler. A
relation to existing inefficient old heating sys-
tems would result in higher CO2 savings.
Figure 15: Reachable CO2 emissions savings
until 2020.
CONCLUSION
The evaluation has shown, how the economic
addressable market of HP and micro-CHP can
be estimated by the use of data of the building
stock in Germany. The results indicate a ten-
dency, on which markets producers have to fo-
cus. For grid operators it can be interpreted how
HP and micro-CHP units will develop for existing
and new constructed SFH and MFH. For exam-
ple for an existing housing estate a huge share
of HP units cannot be expected, if the highest
 Higher service life of the micro-CHP engine
 Higher rates for the refurbishment of buildings
and improvement of heating systems
 Changing in the existing incentives for the
technologies
 Changing in the assumed rising of the energy
costs
In conclusion, very conservative assumptions
were taken into account in order to not overval-
ue the economic addressable market. Especial-
ly, the considered reference system has a large
influence. Compared to an old and inefficient
heating system the cost efficiency of HP and mi-
cro-CHP would increase. Furthermore, only a
monovalent operation of HP was considered. A
bivalent operation of HP is conceivable if an old
and inefficient heating system is supported by a
HP. Thus, it can be stated that the addressable
market is higher than estimated. For example, it
cannot be a priori excluded that micro-CHP are
not economic efficient for SFH.
Another result of the investigation is that for
combined heating solutions with several users,
difficulties in accounting and contracting occur.
For micro-CHP units in MFH there is no general
solution for accounting procedures. Thus, each
building owner has to negotiate contractual solu-
tions with the building tenants, which represents
a great obstacle for building owners. This also
affects other innovate solutions, like HP in com-
bination with thermal storages for the supply of
several buildings. In particular, combined heat-
ing solutions can increase the economic ad-
dressable market in the future.
For further investigation, changing in incentives,
energy rates and investment costs needs to be
monitored in order to update the model continu-
ously. Additionally, combined heating solutions
with thermal energy storages, bivalent operating
HP or supplying several buildings with one heat-
ing system should be considered. Technologies
like fuel cell based micro-CHP units can be im-
plemented, if they are available on the market.
NOMENCLATURE
a annuity factor
Ag investment grants [€]
Are,Tn costs for planned replacement [€]
Are cash value for planned replacement [€]
A0,i investment costs at the beginning of the
installation [€]
A0,HS investment costs for the heating system
(reference, HP, micro-CHP) [€]
A0,S investment costs for the heating surfaces
like Radiators or floor heating [€]
A0,P investment costs for the piping system [€]
A0,C investment costs for the chimney (adaption
or new construction) [€]
A0,CC investment costs for connection and further
construction costs [€]
AN,B capital and consumption related costs for
each heating system and building type
[€/a]
AN,K,B capital related costs for each heating sys-
tem and building type [€/a]
consumption related costs for each heating
system and building type for the first year
[€]
AN,V,B annuity of consumption related costs [€/a]
B building type
baV price dynamic annuity factor
cEEX remuneration based on the KWK-Index
Germany [€/kWhel]
cNNE avoided grid utilisation on the superior grid
[€/kWhel]
cMÖSt refund of the tax on the used gas for micro-
CHP [€/kWhth]
cKWK bonus for the feed in of the generated elec-
trical energy [€/kWhel]
EEWärmeG Erneuerbare – Energien – Wärmegesetz
(engl.: renewable energy heat act)
EnEV Energieeinsparverordnung
(engl.: energy savings regulation)
EnergieStG Energiesteuergesetz
(engl.: energy tax act)
ei effort figure [kWhfuel/kWhth]
eCHP effort figure for micro-CHP unit
[kWhfuel/kWhth]
eADD effort figure for additional heater
[kWhfuel/kWhth]
eCHP,el effort figure for micro-CHP unit for electri-
cal energy [kWhfuel/kWhel]
KWK-G Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetz
(engl.: combined heat and power act)
LSB living space for every building type [m²]
N heating system (reference, HP, micro-
CHP)
Pel nominal electrical power of the micro-CHP
system [kW el]
Pth thermal power of the micro-CHP system
[kW th]
pE,i energy rate [€/kWh]
q interest factor
qH,B specific thermal heat demand [kWhth/m²∙a]
rRE price changing factor for planned
replacement
rER price changing factor for energy rates
T observation period in years [a]
TN time of planned replacement [a]
tKWK maximum period [a]
tVL full load operation hours of micro-CHP [h]
VAT value added tax
zEV share of own consumption of the generat-
ed electrical energy from micro-CHP [%]
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