1. Exercise 3.

15
a. Depending on who supposed to be represented on the Interview:
If they were trying to represent the students who didn’t get the tickets, then its Sample survey.
If the interview was for students in general, the it’s an Anecdotal Data, its not represent large
number of students.
b. this is a sample survey for all students who tries to get concert tickets.
c. Its sample Survey for students who tried to get the tickets, the difference is that the students are
not self-selected for all who participated.
d. Its not experiment, there is no treatment
e. In (a) it was not accurate because they talked to the angry students
(b) The survey might be strongly affected mostly by the unhappy students.
(c) it can be better than others because it can give an accurate opinions representation

2. Exercise 3.105
Computer Aided Self Interview is the one that shows higher percent of drugs usage, because the
person feels free to respond to the screen in such an embarrassing question than responding to a
human. That makes the people more honest when they give the answers.

3. Exercise 4.5 [Hint: Use the classical view of probability. Describe an entire set of equally likely
outcomes and count the number of outcomes contained in the event under question.]
Dataset{(1,1),(1,2),(1,3)(1,4)(1,5)(1,6)(2,1)(2,2)(2,3)(2,4)(2,5)(2,6)(3,1)(3,2)(3,3)(3,4)(3,5)(3,6)(4,1)(4,2)(
4,3)(4,4)(4,5)(4,6)(5,1)(5,2)(5,3)(5,4)(5,5)(5,6)(6,1)(6,2)(6,3)(6,4)(6,5)(6,6)}
The number of winning outcomes is 8
P(E)=N/M
=8/36 =0.22 *100% =22.22%
Multiply 25 times
=200/900
=0.22 *100
=22.22% [The probability is the same no matter how many times we are throwing the
two dices because both the number of outcome(M)s and the equally likely outcomes(N) will increases.
P(E)=M/N]

4. Exercise 4.34 [Hints: Each distinct PIN corresponds to an outcome. Since the PINs are assigned at
random, all outcomes are equally likely. Use the classical view of probability. There is an easy way
to count.]
a. since its four digits out of 10 numbers so the number of possibilities is=10*10*10*10
=10000
b. By excluding one number (for Zero) from 10 for each of the PIN’s four digits, that means instead of
10 numbers for each digit we will calculate 9. So that will be 9*9*9*9=9651 total number of
outcomes that will not have Zero.
10000 - 6561 = 3439 pin numbers have at least one zero
=34.39%probability of at least one zero
5. Letters and Envelopes
Suppose 3 different letters are to be mailed to 3 distinctly addressed envelopes. An absent-minded
assistant randomly puts the 3 letters into the 3 envelopes, one letter in each envelope. What is the
probability that NONE of the letters arrive at the intended address? [Hint: Use the classical view of
probability. Describe an entire set of equally likely outcomes and count the number of outcomes contained
in the event under question.]
E= 1 2 3, 1 3 2,
213 2 3 1,
312 321
The total number of outcomes is 6
The number of outcomes contained in the event under question is= 2
P(E)= M/N!
=2/6 =0.3333 *100% =33.33%
6. Powerball
Consider the Illinois Powerball problem discussed in class. Find the probability that a valid lottery ticket
matches 3 out of 5 white balls and match the Powerball. (In case you’re curious, the payout for winning this
prize is $100.) [Hint: It boils down to counting the number of equally likely winning tickets. You need to
use combinatorics because there are too many to enumerate.]
5! * (69-5) ! = 5*4*3*! * 64! = 5*4 * 64*63*62
3! (5-3)! ((69-5) – (5-3))! (5-3)! 3! 2! (64 - 2)! 2! 2 62! 2*1
=5*64*63 = 20,160 ways in 11,238,513(69! / 5!(69-5)! Chances in which 5 numbers can chose from 69)
The chance of matching the Powerball is 1/26
the chances of choosing 3 out of 5 of 69 correctly and getting the Powerball correct by multiplying these
figures together:
20,160 * 1 =1/14,494.11 , there is 1 chance in 14,494.11
11,238,513 26
7. Baseball series.
Suppose the two baseball teams, Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, are equally good in the
sense that in any given game, each team wins with probability 1/2. Consider a new best-of-five series
between them, namely, the team that wins three games wins the whole series. (No more game will be
played after one team already wins three.) What is the probability that the fifth game needs not be played
to decide the winner? [Hint: Whether a fifth game is needed depends on the outcomes of the first four
games. You can quickly solve the problem using combinatorics. Alternatively, you could enumerate all the
equally likely outcomes of the first four games and then count—to make this easy, you could assume
four games are always played, although the fourth is inconsequential if the first three already decide which
team wins.
n=number of games
k=number of games that W or C will win.

The series ends after three if the series goes www or CCC. This has probability
P(nk)= (0.5)3+(0.5)3= 0.25
The series ends after 4 games in the case of WCCC or CWCC, or CCWC or CWWW, WCWW, WWCW which
has probability
P=3(0.53) (0.5) +3(0.5) (0.53) = 0.375
The probability that game 5 does not need be played= 0.25+ 0.375 =0.625