MASON-DIXON® TENNESSEE POLL

JANUARY 2020

Polling in Tennessee since 1986

FOR RELEASE: 5 am. CST, Friday, February 7, 2020

© Copyright 2020

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2020 Tennessee Poll
 MAJORITY APPROVE OF LEE JOB PERFORMANCE
REPUBLICAN LIKELY TO HOLD SENATE SEAT

Governor Bill Lee receives a favorable job rating from Tennessee voters.
Statewide, 55% approve of his performance in office to date, while 27%
disapprove and 18% are not sure.

Lee’s strongest support comes from Republican voters (79%), but he still has the
approval of 26% of the state’s Democrats and just under half of those who call
themselves Independents (49%).

LEE JOB RATING

18%

APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
27% 55% NOT SURE

The U.S. Senate seat being vacated by the retirement of Lamar Alexander appears
likely to stay in the Republican column. Although none of them are probably well
known, party line voting gives the two leading GOP contenders early advantages
over their likely Democratic opponent.

Statewide, Republican Bill Hagerty tops Democrat James Mackler 55%-33% and
fellow Republican Manny Sethi is ahead of Mackler by 46%-35%.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2020 Tennessee Poll
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Bill Lee’s job performance as governor?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

STATE 55% 27% 18%

REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

East Tennessee 57% 24% 19%

Middle Tennessee 56% 28% 16%
West Tennessee 51% 29% 20%

SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Men 57% 26% 17%

Women 53% 28% 19%

AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

<50 50% 27% 23%

50+ 59% 27% 14%

RACE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

White 61% 22% 17%

Black 24% 55% 21%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Democrat 26% 55% 19%

Republican 79% 9% 12%
Independent 49% 25% 26%

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2020 Tennessee Poll
QUESTION: If the 2020 general election for Tennessee’s U. S. Senate seat were held today, for
whom would you vote if the candidates were James Mackler, the Democrat, and Bill Hagerty,
the Republican?

SEX PARTY ID
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS

HAGERTY 55% 59% 51% 3% 89% 55%

MACKLER 33% 30% 35% 87% 2% 27%
UNDECIDED 12% 11% 14% 10% 9% 18%

QUESTION: If the 2020 general election for Tennessee’s U. S. Senate seat were held today, for
whom would you vote if the candidates were James Mackler, the Democrat, and Manny
Sethi, the Republican?

SEX PARTY ID
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS

SETHI 46% 50% 42% 1% 77% 46%

MACKLER 35% 34% 37% 89% 3% 29%
UNDECIDED 19% 16% 21% 10% 20% 25%

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2020 Tennessee Poll
 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville,
Florida from January 28 through January 30, 2020. A total of 625 registered
Tennessee voters were interviewed live by telephone statewide.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Tennessee

voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers.
Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is

no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent
probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were
surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or
age grouping.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2020 Tennessee Poll
 DEMOGRAPHICS

PARTY IDENTIFICATION:

Democrat 171 (27%)

Republican 247 (40%)
Independent or Other 207 (33%)

AGE:
18-34 103 (16%)
35-49 186 (30%)
50-64 190 (30%)
65+ 141 (23%)
Refused 5 (1%)

RACE/ETHNICITY:
White/Caucasian 525 (84%)
Black/African American 85 (14%)
Other/Refused 15 (2%)

SEX:
Male 300 (48%)
Female 325 (52%)

REGION:
East Tennessee 225 (36%)
Middle Tennessee 245 (39%)
West Tennessee 155 (25%)

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2020 Tennessee Poll
 TENNESSEE POLL REGIONS

EAST TENNESSEE: Voters in Johnson, Sullivan, Carter, Washington, Union,

Greene, Hamlin, Hawkins, Hancock, Claiborne, Grainger, Jefferson, Cocke,
Sevier, Blount, Knox, Campbell, Scott, Morgan, Anderson, Cumberland, Roane,
Loudoun, Monroe, Polk, Meigs, McMinn, Bradley, Hamilton, Marion,
Sequatchie, Rhea and Bledsoe counties.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE: Voters in Pickett, Fentress, Overton, Clay, Jackson, Putnam,

White, Van Buren, Warren, Grundy, Franklin, Coffee, Moore, Cannon, DeKalb,
Smith, Macon, Trousdale, Sumner, Wilson, Davidson, Robertson, Cheatham,
Rutherford, Williamson, Maury, Marshall, Bedford, Lincoln, Giles, Lawrence,
Wayne, Lewis, Perry, Hickman, Humphreys, Dickson, Houston, Montgomery and
Stewart counties.

WEST TENNESSEE: Voters in Henry, Benton, Decatur, Hardin, McNairy, Chester,

Henderson, Carroll, Weakley, Obion, Lake, Dyer, Gibson, Crockett, Madison,
Henderson, Fayette, Haywood, Lauderdale, Dyer, Tipton and Shelby counties.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – January 2020 Tennessee Poll