Probability Exercises

1. The National Sporting Goods Association conducted a survey of persons 7 years

of age or older about participation in sports activities (Statistical Abstract of the
United States, 2002). The total population in this age group was reported at 248.5
million, with 120.9 million male and 127.6 million female. The number of
participants for the top five sports activities appears here.

Participants (millions)
Activity
Male Female

Bicycle riding 22.2 21.0

Camping 25.6 24.3

Exercise walking 28.7 57.7
Exercising with equipment 20.4 24.4

Swimming 26.4 34.4

A. For a randomly selected female, estimate the probability of participation in

each of the sports activities.
B. For a randomly selected male, estimate the probability of participation in
each of the sports activities.
C. For a randomly selected person, what is the probability the person
participates in exercise walking?
D. Suppose you just happen to see an exercise walker going by. What is the
probability it is a woman? What is the probability the walker is a man?

2. A survey of magazine subscribers showed that 45.8% rented a car during the
past 12 months for business reasons, 54% rented a car during the past 12
months for personal reasons, and 30% rented a car during the past 12 months
for both business and personal reasons.
A. What is the probability that a subscriber rented a car during the past 12
months for business or personal reasons?
B. What is the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car during the past
12 months for either business or personal reasons?

3. The following table gives the status of prisoners in a particular jail.

Type of Crime
Status
Burglary Drugs Vandalism
Released 735 632 411
Received 203 131 61
 Compute
(a) The joint probability of a prisoner arrested for burglary and released
(b) The marginal probability of Burglary
(c) P(A prisoner was arrested for burglary given that he has been released)

4. A local bank reviewed its credit card policy with the intention of recalling some of
its credit cards. In the past approximately 5% of cardholders defaulted, leaving
the bank unable to collect the outstanding balance. Hence, management
established a prior probability of .05 that any particular cardholder will default.
The bank also found that the probability of missing a monthly payment is 0.20 for
customers who do not default. Of course, the probability of missing a monthly
payment for those who default is 1.
A. Given that a customer missed one or more monthly payments, compute the
posterior probability that the customer will default.
B. The bank would like to recall its card if the probability that a customer will
default is greater than .20. Should the bank recall its card if the customer
misses a monthly payment? Why or why not?

5. A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm’s
management initially felt they had a 50 –50 chance of getting the project.
However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested
additional information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 75% of the
successful bids and 40% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested
additional information.
A. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the
request for additional information)?
B. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information
given that the bid will ultimately be successful?
C. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a
request for additional information.