Development of Accurate Tsunami Estimated Times of Arrival For Tsunami-Prone Cities in Aceh, Indonesia

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijdrr
Development of accurate tsunami estimated times of arrival for

tsunami-prone cities in Aceh, Indonesia
Syamsidik a,n, Teuku Muhammad Rasyif b, Shigeru Kato c
a
Tsunami Computation and Visualization Laboratory of Tsunami and Disaster Mitigation Research Center (TDMRC) and Civil Engineering Department, Syiah
Kuala University, Jl. Syeh Abd Rauff, No. 7, Banda Aceh 23111 Indonesia
b
Tsunami and Disaster Mitigation Research Center (TDMRC), Syiah Kuala University and Civil Engineering Master's Program, Syiah Kuala University, Jl. Syeh
Abd. Rauff, No. 7, Banda Aceh 231111, Indonesia
c
Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi University of Technology, 1-1 Tempaku-Cho, Aichi Prefecture, 441-8580, Japan
art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t
Article history: Ten years after the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004, the Aceh Province in Indonesia has made progress
Received 11 April 2015 toward becoming a more tsunami resilient area. The government of Indonesia has undertaken a number
Received in revised form of efforts to facilitate a better evacuation process, but a smooth evacuation process is still at large. A
15 September 2015
major issue is that the disaster management office for the districts are yet to have clear, accurate esti-
Accepted 16 September 2015
mations of what would be the shortest time of the arrival of the tsunami waves.The worst scenario for
these cities' tsunami evacuation procedures has yet to be determined. This study seeks to discern worst
Keywords: tsunami estimated times of arrival for the tsunami-prone cities in Aceh. A number of numerical simu-
City Evacuation lations were performed using data from past events of tsunamis in this area and a future near-shore
Tsunami
tsunami events anticipated by most of the disaster managers around the Mentawai Island. The Cornell
Numerical simulation
Multi-grid COupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model was used as the tool for the simulations. Nine selected
ETA
COMCOT cities were determined as observation points, i.e., Sabang, Banda Aceh, Calang, Lageun, Teunom, Meu-
laboh, Singkil, Sinabang, and Tapaktuan. The results of this research show that the shortest ETAs are
Banda Aceh 35 min, Sabang 22 min, Lageun 25 min, Calang 29 min, Teunom 29 min, Meulaboh 35 min,
Sinabang 20 min, Singkil 53 min, and Tapaktuan 24 min.
& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction guideline for related stakeholders and emergency responders be-

fore and during emergency period [31]. Visible tsunami evacuation
The Indian Ocean Tsunami on December 26, 2004 left behind a signs are found in most of the cities. Although not on a regular
stark landscape and initiated a drastic period of change for Aceh basis, the government and population of Aceh have performed
Province and the Nias Island of Indonesia. Approximately 230,000 some tsunami evacuation drills. However, disaster management
people died and nearly 1,000,000 people suffering from clear authorities still have not figure out how to be prepared for a worst
images of the extensive damage caused by the tsunami were case scenario for emergency response to future tsunamis. In ad-
displaced [29]. Ten years after the tsunami, Aceh has been re- dition, they are unsure of how such a scenario should be in-
covered from the severe destruction and is now in much better corporated into the existing SOP. One complication is that in cities
that were not affected by the 2004 tsunami, the perception and
condition. A four-year rehabilitation and reconstruction process
the preparedness efforts are different or somewhat lacking, leav-
conducted in Aceh and the Nias Islands of Indonesia has brought
ing them ill-prepared [26].
significant changes to the area, including infrastructure improve-
Concerns became even greater after the two major earthquakes
ments, new settlements, and new livelihoods [22–25]. At the
(8.6 Mw and 8.2 Mw) that occurred on April 11, 2012. The earth-
present, Aceh has built eight tsunami escape buildings, a number quakes' epicenters were located off the western part of the Sunda-
of siren towers, and several well-designed tsunami escape roads. A Subduction Zone [30]. Although they did not produce a giant
provincial standard operating procedure (SOP) for tsunami eva- tsunami, they did cause massive panic in major coastal cities in
cuation has been formulated since 2011 [16]. The SOP is an official Aceh. The newly-constructed evacuation facilities were not able to
accommodate the sudden spike in traffic. People had not been
n
Corresponding author.
trained on how to select the best modes of evacuation. The greater
E-mail addresses: syamsidik@tdmrc.org (Syamsidik), number of cars on the roads overloaded them and soon created
teukumrasyif@gmail.com (T.M. Rasyif), s-kato@ace.tut.ac.jp (S. Kato). traffic jams at many places in the cities. In contrast, in the 2004
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.09.006
2212-4209/& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article as: Syamsidik, et al., Development of accurate tsunami estimated times of arrival for tsunami-prone cities in
Aceh, Indonesia, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.09.006i
2 Syamsidik et al. / International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎
Fig. 1. Area simulation and points for numerical simulations. Simulations were done in several runs of the process. The color of the rectangles represent areas in the same
run of the numerical simulation process. The numbers refer to number of layers of the simulation in Table 1. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure
legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
tsunami, the existing escape buildings were almost totally de- not only for nearfield tsunamis, where the ETA is faster than
serted. And to make matters worse, the siren towers did not work 30 min, but also for farfield tsunamis. A study conducted around
properly [17]. In the 2012 event, people rushed to evacuate due to the southern coast of Myanmar indicated that this area was
their experience during the 2004 tsunami. Another good sign was stricken by a tsunami 2.5 h after the first earthquake that triggered
that none of them went to the coastal area to pick fish unlike what the December 26, 2004 tsunami [12]. Since the people did not feel
happened in the 2004 tsunami. Some schools who have regular any shaking from the earthquake, the ETA information would have
training and SOPs for tsunami and earthquake disasters managed helped the community and the government to anticipate the
to evacuate their students calmly [27]. However, most of the tsunami [12]. However, those study results are yet to be included
evacuation facilities are found in Banda Aceh, the capital city of to improve future evacuation procedures for the study area. Also,
Aceh Province. Other cities that have been affected by previous the results have not yet been discussed with emergency managers
tsunamis, such as Sabang, Lageun, Calang, Sinabang, and Meulaboh to see the practicality of incorporating the ETA information for
were not equipped with such facilities. Although Meulaboh uses those cities. This research uses the Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled
two-story shop roofs as shelters, the city still does not have ample Tsunami (COMCOT), a numerical model, to produce ETAs for the
escape roads or siren towers. In Tapaktuan and Singkil, the impacts selected cities along the western coasts of Aceh. The results of the
of the 2004 tsunami were minor, so the tsunami preparedness modeling were brought into discussions with emergency stake-
efforts there have been minimal. Another troubling issue is that holders in the cities to incorporate the results into evacuation
these cities have not put any shortest evacuation period into their procedures.
evacuation SOPs. Therefore, in this study the goal was to develop
and provide worst case tsunami Estimated Times of Arrival (ETAs)
for these tsunami-prone cities in Aceh. 2. The study area
An ETA is defined as a computed arrival time of the first tsu-
nami wave after the occurrence of an earthquake-generating tsu- Except for Banda Aceh, the western coastal cities of Aceh are
nami [8,14,13]. The travel time of the tsunami is correlated with well-known to be less populated in comparison to the eastern
evacuation time to improve the number of survivors in tsunami- coasts of Aceh. The population of this area is about one third that
impacted coastal areas [15]. City evacuation planning should of the northeastern part. Off the western coast of this area is the
consider the shortest time that it will take an anticipated tsunami Sunda Fault where the Indo-Australia tectonic plate and Eurasian
to get to their coastal area in order to assure that they can evacuate plate collide with each other. According to United State Geological
their residents in time. The ETA and number of evacuees will de- Survey (USGS) data, between 1976 and 2012, there have been 64
termine where tsunami shelters should be placed, evacuation earthquakes in this area with magnitudes greater than 6.5 Mw. It
routes, evacuation roads' dimensions, as well as evacuation traffic is anticipated that this tectonically active region will produce fu-
management [28]. Numerous models were used to study ETA at ture major earthquakes [6]. Off the coast of the western region
various locations. ETAs based on historical tsunami scenarios were there are a number of small islands: Simeulue Island, the Banyak
found to be key factors in saving lives [15,21]. Zhang et al. [21] Islands, and the Pulo Aceh Islands. These islands are believed to be
introduced a rapid method for estimating the arrival time of tsu- a natural barrier providing protection from the propagating tsu-
nami waves using linear wave theory and data from tsunamis nami waves generated around the subduction zone. There are nine
around the Pacific Ocean that occurred in the 1960s. Another study major coastal cities along this area: Banda Aceh, Sabang, Lageun,
conducted around the Tohoku area to revise the ETA during the Calang, Teunom, Meulaboh, Singkil, Sinabang, and Tapaktuan, as
March 11, 2012 earthquake and tsunami showed that the ETAs for shown in Fig. 1. The largest population lives in Banda Aceh, the
the observed cities are related to their distance relative to the capital city of Aceh Province. During the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsu-
source and the seabed forms, especially around the shallow sea nami, more than 70,000 people died. In 2014, the population of
near the coasts [7]. Knowing the ETA for a certain area is important Banda Aceh was approximately 249,282 people. The second most
Syamsidik et al. / International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎ 3
populated city in this area is Meulaboh with about 55,000 re- 3.2. Numerical simulations
sidents, according to the 2013 Population Census [1]. Except for
Tapaktuan and Singkil, the other seven cities were severely da- A tsunami wave propagation model was simulated using the
maged by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Cornel Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model developed
The angle of slope along a coast line has a strong influence on by Liu et al. in 1995 [18]. The model has been successfully applied
the tsunami waves. Coastal slopes around Banda Aceh, Lageun, in various tsunami cases, such as the Indian Ocean case [18,20] and
Calang, Teunom, and Meulaboh are classified as mildslope. the Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami. The COMCOT is able to si-
Meanwhile, the coastal slope in front of Tapaktuan, Singkil, Sa- mulate multi-size grids (nested grid method). The model applies a
bang, and Sinabang is rather steep. The coastal profile also influ- leap-frog finite difference scheme that also uses two modes of the
ences the deformation of tsunami waves around the nearshore Boussinesq-Shallow Water Equation (SWE), i.e. a linear SWE and a
area. The milder the coastal slope, the more destructive the tsu- nonlinear SWE. When the tsunami waves propagate from offshore
nami waves are to the area [20]. Despite this knowledge, only to near-shore areas, the nonlinear effects increase significantly.
Banda Aceh, Calang, and Meulaboh have well-designed evacuation However, employing a nonlinear SWE for the whole simulation
domain is not effective and is time consuming. The COMCOT offers
buildings. Banda Aceh has six such designated evacuation build-
the advantage of being able to cluster the application of SWEs in a
ings. Meanwhile, Calang and Meulaboh only have one each. The
simulated domain with different types of the equation. The linear
others do not have any designated evacuation shelters yet. Due to
SWE equations adopted by COMCOT are as follows.
a lack of funding, no significant evacuation infrastructure im-
provements have been made since 2009. Each evacuation building ∂η ⎧ ∂P ∂ ⎫ ∂h
⎨ (Q cos ∅) ⎬ = −
1
+ +
can only facilitate about 500 people should a mass evacuation ∂t R cos ∅ ⎩ ∂ψ ∂∅ ⎭ ∂t (1)
occur [16]. Faced with this fact, the Disaster Management Agency
of the West Aceh District decided to utilize two-story shop roofs as
tsunami shelters. In contrast, the other cities still rely exclusively ∂P gh ∂η
+ − fQ = 0
on horizontal evacuation procedures. This decision makes it cri- ∂t R cos φ ∂ψ (2)
tical to know how much time is available for a horizontal eva-
cuation in order to save lives.
∂Q gH ∂η
+ + fP = 0
∂t R ∂ψ (3)
3. Methods
This research included numerical simulations and Focus Group f = 2Ω sin (φ) (4)
Discussions. The numerical simulations were conducted to obtain where η is the water surface elevation; P , Q denote the volume
the shortest ETAs for the selected cities based on historical tsu- fluxes in X (West–East) direction and Y (South–North) direction,
nami data and an anticipated future tsunami around the Mentawai respectively; (φ , ψ ) denote the latitude and longitude of the earth;
Islands. The shortest ETAs were later brought into discussions with R is the radius of the earth; g is the gravitational acceleration and
District Disaster Management Officers from the selected cities to h is the water depth. And the term ∂h/∂t reflects the effect of
encourage conformance with the existing tsunami evacuation SOP. transient seafloor motion. The f represents the Coriolis force
Specific attention was given to showing the practicality of the SOP coefficient due to the rotation of the earth and Ω is the rotation
and the ETAs when the dual major earthquakes occurred on April rate of the earth.
11, 2012. Meanwhile, the nonlinear SWEs employed by COMCOT are
formulated as follows:
3.1. Fault model ∂P ∂ ⎧ P 2 ⎫ 1 ∂ ⎧ PQ ⎫ gH ∂η

⎨ ⎬+ ⎨ ⎬+
gh
+ − fQ + Fx
∂t R cos ϕ ∂ψ ⎩ H ⎭ R ∂∅ ⎩ H ⎭ R cos ∅ ∂ψ
To mimic the deformation of the seabed due to under-sea
=0 (5)
earthquakes, this study applied an analytical function developed
by Masinha and Smylie combined with Okada theories [5,9]. The
∂ ⎧ PQ ⎫ 1 ∂ ⎧ Q2 ⎫ gH ∂η
model uses finite rectangular sources where focal mechanism
∂Q
⎨ ⎬+ ⎨ ⎬+
parameters and rupture parameters are inserted for this study. The 1
+ + fP + Fy = 0
focal mechanism parameters were obtained from the USGS data- ∂t R cos ϕ ∂ψ ⎩ H ⎭ R ∂∅ ⎩ H ⎭ R ∂ϕ (6)
base of previous earthquakes and tsunamis and the parameters for
future tsunamis were obtained from parameters published by
gn2
other researchers [11,4,2]. More details about the parameters can P ( P 2 + Q2)
1/2
Fx=
be seen in the simulation scenario section. The empirical re- H 7/3 (7)
lationship between the magnitude of an earthquake and the size
of the rupture model has been applied [19]. The empirical equa-
gn2
Q ( P 2 + Q2)
1/2
tion produces these dimensions of the rupture area; dislocation, Fy=
H 7/3 (8)
fault length, and width of the area.
The COMCOT fault models are classified as either instantaneous
or transient seafloor deformation models. This study adopted the
H =η+h (9)
instantaneous fault model that calculates the seafloor deformation
using elastic finite fault plane theory. The instantaneous fault where H is the total water depth; Fx and Fy represent the bottom
model assumes the rupture area to be a rectangular fault plane friction in the ψ and φ directions, respectively; and n is the
and also assumes that the water volume displaced by the earth- Manning's roughness coefficient.
quake is equal to the shape of the deformed seabed. In addition, the dual-modes of the SWEs in COMCOT enable us
Table 1
Model parameters for the nested grids employed in the numerical simulation.
LayerNo. Extent of Grid GridSize Number ofGrid CoordinateSystem SWEType
Longitude Latitude
1 From 79.2 to 107.6 From ! 13.6 to 18.2 1 min 1704 Spherical Linear
1851 m 1908 Spherical
21 From 91.734 to 98.126 From 1.864 to 8.125 0.2 min 1917 Spherical Linear
370.2 m 1284 Spherical
22 From 94.81 to 98.39 From 0.31 to 4.59 0.25 min 859 Spherical Linear
31 From 94.5 to 97.212 From 3.0 to 4.875 0.0667 min 2439 Spherical Non-linear
to develop faster and more accurate results, especially for near- 3.3. Simulation scenario
shore wave diffraction effects where it takes place mostly around
the coastal cities. In this study, we used three layers of simulation Numerical simulations were performed based on two groups of
grids. The locations of the simulation domain and the simulation simulation scenarios, i.e., a Past Event Scenario and a Mentawai
layers can be seen in Fig. 1. Details of the simulation layers and the Scenario. The Past Event Scenario was developed from information
type of SWE applied to each layer can be seen in Table 1. Due to on eight past major earthquakes with magnitudes greater than
7.0 Mw. Not all of them did generate a destructive tsunami, but all
the large simulation domain area adopted in the simulation, a
of them created massive evacuations throughout the south-
spherical coordinate system was used. Bathymetric data was ob-
western cities of Aceh. The focal mechanism for each of the
tained from two sources; GEBCO for offshore bathymetry data and
earthquakes was obtained from the USGS database. Table 2 shows
data from the Nautical Chart produced by the Indonesia Geospatial the Past Event Scenario applied in the numerical simulations. The
Information Agency (BIG) was used for near-shore area close to the empirical equation as explained previously was not used for the
study area. One detailed bathymetric measurement was done 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 Nias, and the Mentawai
around the Meulaboh coast in September 2011 to update the data megathrust. The first two events used the multi-fault model de-
on the coastal bed form. Topography data for the simulation used rived by Romano [11] and Banerjee et al. [32]. The Mentawai
SRTM30 data with the resolution of the data at about 0.5 min. The Scenario was based on several studies conducted around the Su-
Manning roughness coefficient was applied for the seawater area matra Subduction Zone. One of the most anticipated scenarios was
in the domain, which was assumed to be equal to 0.02. As this a tsunami generated from around the Mentawai Megathrust [35].
research did not consider the tsunami run-up process on the Detail data for the fault parameter of the Mentawai Scenario was
landside area, types of land use for the study area were not based on Kongko [4].
significant.
The observation points in the simulations were located at a 3.4. Focus group discussions
contour depth of 10 m in the near-shore zones of the study cities.
A number of Disaster Managers from Aceh Jaya Districts, the
The definition of the ETA was taken from the Indonesia Geophysic,
West Aceh District, and the South Aceh District were gathered
Climate, and Meteorological Agency (BMKG). The ETA is confirmed
separately for Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). The FGDs were
when the tsunami waves reach 0.5 m from the Mean Sea Level done between September 2014 and October 2014. The West Aceh
near the coastal area [31]. Therefore, in these simulations, the District and the Aceh Jaya District had already formulated their
same definition was adopted. Validation of the numerical simu- tsunami evacuation SOPs. However, the South Aceh District has yet
lations was made to assure agreement of the results with the to compose any document related to such emergency procedures.
measured data. Details of the validation process are discussed in The ETAs produced from these numerical simulations were
the other sections. brought into the FGDs as one of the key components of questions
Table 2
List of fault parameters for past scenarios.
No Date Coordinate Fault parameters Depth(km) Mw Length(km) Width(km) Dislocation(m)
Latitude (deg) Longitude (deg) Strike Dip Slip
1 26/12/2004 94.26 3.09 329 8 110 28.6 9 [11] [11] [11]

2 21/03/2005 97.07 1.67 333 8 118 25.8 8.6 [32] [32] [32]
3 12/09/2007 100.99 ! 3.78 328 9 114 24.4 8.5 328 47 7.3
4 12/09/2007 100.13 ! 2.46 317 19 102 43.1 7.9 145 42.6 4.12
5 06/04/2010 96.74 2.07 307 7 88 17.6 7.8 145.2 30 4.1
6 25/10/2010 99.32 ! 3.71 316 8 96 12 7.8 145 30 4.1
7 10/01/2012 93.209 2.452 195 79 16 10 7.2 79 16 1.9
8 11/04/2012 93.1 2.244 201 75 6 40 8.6 580 40 13.5
for the FGD participants. Key questions delivered in the FGDs were wave propagations to the observed study area are relatively
structured into three main parts. The first part of the questions reliable.
was about the main city's facilities assigned for tsunami evacua-
tion and future development program. The second part was about
their perception on the ETAs produced by these simulations and 4. Estimated time of arrival (ETAs)
how the ETA could be incorporated into the district's evacuation
procedures. These questions were also about how much time Observation points of the ETAs were placed at several contour
would be needed to evacuate an entire city population to desig- lines close to the Aceh cities. However, the simulation results show
nated safe points. The last of the questions were about what would that a contour depth of 10 m gives the most stable results for a
be the best way to communicate the ETA information and the ci- coastal area [10]. Based on this, the observation points used for
ty's tsunami preparedness to their community members. determining the ETAs were deployed at a 10 m depth close enough
to the coast lines of the cities. For the observation area, the contour
3.5. Validation of numerical simulations lines of 10 m are located between 50 m and 150 m from the coast
line. The distance of the observation points to the nearest coast
Validation of the numerical simulations was performed for five line of the city depends on the coastal slope. ETAs from all of the
tsunamis that occurred on: simulation scenarios for the selected cities are shown in Table 3.
The minimum and moderate ETAs are critical factors in the
" December 26, 2004 time necessary to complete evacuation procedures and for in-
" March 21, 2005 tegration into city planning respectively. Aceh's cities were divided
" September 12, 2007 into the two categories; Minimum and Moderate ETAs. Minimun
" April 6, 2010 ETA is the shortest ETA. Meanwhile, the Moderate ETA is classified
" April 11, 2012. as the second shortest ETA for the observed area if available.
During FGDs with disaster management agency officers at district
Validation of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was conducted level, the moderate ETA was asked. This is for alternative solutions
using Jason 1 Satellite data [3]. The satellite measured the sea level to the district in providing tsunami evacuation in case the shortest
around the Indian Ocean about two hours after the tsunami was ETA is difficult to meet. Moderate ETAs were established for La-
geun 62 min, Calang 72 min, Meulaboh 78 min, and Tapaktuan
first generated. The other tsunamis were validated by data from
37 min. The minimum (shortest) ETAs obtained from the simula-
Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami's (DART) buoys
tions were for: Sabang – 22 min, Banda Aceh – 35 min, Lageun –
operated by NOAA of the United States. Fig. 2 shows a map of the
25 min, Teunom – 29 min, Calang – 29 min, Meulaboh – 35 min,
buoys used for validations the 2005, 2007, 2010, and 2012 events.
Singkil 53 min, Sinabang 20 min, and Tapaktuan – 24 min. The
Under normal conditions, the buoys record the sea level every
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami produced the shortest ETAs for Sa-
15 min. During a major earthquake, the DART buoys measure sea
bang, Banda Aceh, Lageun, Teunom, Calang, Sinabang, and Meu-
level changes every 15 s. Fig. 3a illustrates validation for the 2004
laboh. But the minimum ETAs for Singkil and Tapaktuan were
tsunami.
produced by the 2005 tsunami, where the epicenter was located
Fig. 3b–e represents the tsunami validations for 2005, 2007,
near Nias Island. The minimum ETA for the six cities clarifies that
2010, and 2012 tsunamis, respectively. All of the validation graphs
the 2004 tsunami was the worst scenario for most of the cities.
confirm that the simulated results strongly correlate with either
The other tsunamis generated off the western coast did not pro-
the Jason 1 satellite data (2004 tsunami) or the DART buoy mea-
duce the shortest ETAs, although they were close to these cities.
sured data for the other tsunamis. They clarify that the tsunami
Shoreline shapes around Meulaboh are rather concave from the
landside, which results in a longer tsunami arrival time compared
to where the shoreline is convex, as found in the case of Ta-
paktuan. The ETA for Meulaboh is longer than for cities nearby,
such as Teunom and Calang [10].
The results from the Mentawai anticipating scenario did pro-
duced an ETA of more than two hours to the Aceh's coastal cities.
This knowledge will enable the cities to be adequately prepared
for tsunami evacuations should a Mentawai Megathrust occur.
However, it is important to highlight that a tsunami generated in
the Mentawai scenario will not be accompanied by receding water
around the coast of the western cities of Aceh. This is in stark
contrast to the past tsunami scenarios that have occurred around
the western coast of Aceh. It should also be noted that the ETAs
produced in this study are not aimed at providing real time data,
but rather at providing initial information for authorities to un-
derstand quickly what would be the escape window timeframe for
their cities in the face of an oncoming tsunami.
5. Tsunami evacuation plans
The data obtained from the numerical simulations were pro-

vided to the disaster management authorities at Calang, Lageun,
Meulaboh, and Tapaktuan. The tsunami evacuation process for
Banda Aceh was obtained from a report produced by TIM based on
Fig. 2. Location of the DART buoys for numerical results validations. the April 11, 2012 earthquakes [17]. The report was also validated
Fig. 3. Tsunami height comparisons between the COMCOT model and; (a) Satellite Jason1 in 2004, (b) DART at Cocos Island in 2005, (c) DART at Phuket, September 12, 2007,
(d) DART at Phuket, April 6, 2010, and (e) DART at Phuket, April 11, 2012.
Table 3 jams around Banda Aceh triggered by tsunami events have been
The ETA values in the study cities. confirmed through a number of tsunami evacuation modeling
[33,34]. This was also confirmed by Local Disaster Management
No Name of the city Minimum (min) Moderate (min)
Agency staffs who are in charge of the city's evacuation process.
1 Sabang 22 22 Although, there are six designated escape buildings around the
2 Banda Aceh 35 35 city, it was hard to attract the maximum number of evacuees that
3 Lageun 25 62
the facilities could shelter during the evacuation.
4 Calang 29 72
5 Teunom 29 72 In Calang and Lageun, the two cities have smaller populations
6 Meulaboh 35 78 and they have several hills around the cities that can be used for
7 Tapaktuan 24 37 evacuation. Although Calang only has one escape building, the
8 Singkil 53 53
surrounding hills can accommodate a large number of evacuees.
9 Sinabang 20 26
On April 11, 2012, the Local Disaster Management Agency revealed
that a large number of people used the hills during the evacua-
through an interview with the Local Disaster Management Agency tions. The escape building in this city was also used by a significant
in Aceh. number of evacuees. On normal days, the escape building is also
In Banda Aceh, it was estimated that one hour (60 min) would used as the office for the Local Disaster Management Agency. A
be needed to evacuate the city's population to a safer area. The number of community-based disaster risk reduction activities
tsunami safer areas in Banda Aceh are located about 4 km from the were performed at this building. This helped the Agency to con-
coast line. During normal conditions, it takes about 30 min by nect the use of the escape building to the local community. During
motorcycle to reach these areas. With a sudden transport volume an FGD, it was estimated that the city would need about 35 min to
increase, the time to safety would increase due to traffic jams as evacuate the entire population of the city to safer points.
observed after the two earthquakes on April 11, 2012. The traffic In Meulaboh, the evacuation time is estimated to be about
50 min. This city does not have higher ground suitable for tsunami enact tsunami mitigation based spatial planning around their
evacuation. During panic situations triggered by earthquakes in coastal areas.
March 2005, there was severe traffic congestion during the eva-
cuation. This situation inspired the Local Disaster Management
Agency to improve the evacuation procedure of the city with
measures such as, providing enough staff to direct the evacuation 6. Conclusions
process, especially at critical junctions or roads. These attempts
were proven effective at reducing the evacuation time and mini- This study explored the opportunity to develop tsunami Esti-
mizing traffic accidents during the evacuation. However, the eva- mated Times of Arrival for these southwestern cities of Aceh; La-
cuation time of Meulaboh was still longer than the simulated ETA geun, Calang, Meulaboh, and Tapaktuan. Except for Tapaktuan, all
for this city. of them were severely damaged in the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsu-
Conversely, Tapaktuan is one of the cities that does not have nami. The ETAs were produced using numerical simulations that
any preparation for anticipated future tsunamis. In previous tsu- incorporated several past tsunami scenarios. The ETAs were di-
namis, this city received only minor impacts, which has led to only vided into two categories, i.e., Minimum ETA and Moderate ETA.
minimum preparation by local government. Based on an FGD The minimum ETAs were Lageun 25 min, Calang 29 min, Meula-
conducted in Tapaktuan, it was found that the city would need
boh 35 min, and Tapaktuan 24 min. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsu-
about 60 min to evacuate its population to safer points. Although
nami produced these minimum ETAs, except for Tapaktuan where
this city is surrounded by hills, in this case, the higher ground
the minimum ETA was generated from the 2005 tsunami. Mod-
areas are not well suited to accommodate tsunami evacuees. There
erate ETAs were confirmed for Lageun 62 min, Calang 72 min,
are no roads, stairways, or tsunami evacuation signs. No tsunami
evacuation drills have been performed in this city. In fact, in 2005, Meulaboh 78 min, and Tapaktuan 37 min. In terms of tsunami
a tsunami struck this area and resulted in damage to a number of evacuation procedures, none of the authorities from these cities
houses around its coastal areas. Comparing this information to the are ready to anticipate their minimum ETAs. Despite several efforts
simulated ETA has revealed a significant gap in the tsunami eva- to revise the tsunami evacuation procedures for these cities, the
cuation time for Tapaktuan. A comparison of the Time of Official emergency facilities are still insufficient to provide evacuees with
Warning Released by the Indonesia Geophysical, Climate and safety in the face of their minimum ETAs. These cities need more
Meteorological Agency (BMKG) [17] and the simulated ETAs for evacuation roads and shelters and more actual tsunami drills to
each city and Estimated time for Tsunami Evacuation (ETE) of the perform effective immediate tsunami evacuation procedures.
city's population can be seen in Fig. 4. This figure shows that all of
the selected cities have a shorter ETA than the city's current eva-
cuation time (ETE). Banda Aceh, Meulaboh, and Tapaktuan have a Acknowledgments
serious challenge to reduce this gap. To do so, they could construct
more escape buildings around the coastal areas, widen evacuation The authors are thankful to the Toyohashi University of Tech-
roads, utilize the hills around the city (as does Tapaktuan), and nology who facilitated support during training and researcher
conduct regular tsunami drills. Among the nine cities considered exchanges with the Civil Engineering Master's Program of Syiah
in this study, Banda Aceh, Lageun, Calang, Teunom, Meulaboh, and Kuala University under the JASSO Program. This study was par-
Singkil already have their official Tsunami Risk Maps. However,
tially funded by the Directorate of Higher Education (DIKTI) of the
Tapaktuan and Sinabang have yet to formulate official tsunami risk
Ministry of Education of Indonesia through a research Grant from
maps to further develop their evacuation procedures.
STRANAS No. 1702 APPN in 2012. FGDs for this study were funded
Based on the FGDs and the numerical simulations, this study
by a Hibah Pasca Sarjana research Grant no. 2940 IHPS from the
revealed a number of serious gaps in evacuation process at most of
the cities in Aceh. In addition, this area is still classified to be Syiah Kuala University in 2014. Authors are also grateful to USAID
tsunami prone area where tsunami wave heights higher than and National Academy of Sciences who fund this publication
0.5 m have a higher probability of occurrence compared to other process through PEER Cycle 3, Sponsor Grant Award Number: AID-
regions in Indonesia [36]. The local disaster management agencies OAAA-A-11-00012 and Sub Grant Number PGA-2000004893 with
acknowledged there are a number of challenges to fill the gaps. research project title: Tsunami Waves Impacts on Coastal Mor-
Among them are to regulate emergency traffic management and to phological Changes Based on Sediment Transport Simulations.
Fig. 4. Comparison between the Official Warning Time released by BMKG, simulated ETAs, and estimated tsunami evacuation times for Banda Aceh, Lageun, Calang,
Meulaboh, and Tapaktuan. P is the estimated population of the city. W1 ¼ the first tsunami early warning after 5 min of an earthquake, and W2 ¼is the second warning after
10 min of an earthquake.
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Development of Accurate Tsunami Estimated Times of Arrival For Tsunami-Prone Cities in Aceh, Indonesia

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Development of accurate tsunami estimated times of arrival for

1. Introduction guideline for related stakeholders and emergency responders be-

3.1. Fault model ∂P ∂ ⎧ P 2 ⎫ 1 ∂ ⎧ PQ ⎫ gH ∂η

LayerNo. Extent of Grid GridSize Number ofGrid CoordinateSystem SWEType

No Date Coordinate Fault parameters Depth(km) Mw Length(km) Width(km) Dislocation(m)

Latitude (deg) Longitude (deg) Strike Dip Slip

1 26/12/2004 94.26 3.09 329 8 110 28.6 9 [11] [11] [11]

5. Tsunami evacuation plans

The data obtained from the numerical simulations were pro-

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