THE IRAN

NUCLEAR DEAL
Most Important Purpose: To make sure that Iran does not develop a nuclear programme in
secret (European Council, 2019)
Other purposes: aims to limit the materials that Iran has to make bombs (European
Council, 2019) and to expand the break-out time to a year or longer in order to make sure
Iran can be stopped if ever they would try to create such bombs (European Council, 2019)

Regardless, Iran continued to develop an extensive nuclear

During the May of 2018, President Trump
fuel cycle along with a sophisticated enrichment capabilities
announced that he would be
which became the reason as to why international
withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal,
negotiations and sanctions were made during the years of
which he did at that year (Landler, 2018).
2002 to 2015 (Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2018)
HISTORY
BRIEF

In the 1950s: The nuclear program of Iran began when
the Shah of Iran received technical assistance under
the US Atoms for Peace Program but was ended in the
1979 Iran Revolution (Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2018)
The Iran Nuclear Deal which is formally known as the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was established in
the year 2015 between the P5+1 also known as China, EU,
Russia, the United States, Germany, France, and Iran
(BBC News, 2019).

IRAN'S COMMITMENTS US PULLS OUT OF THE DEAL:

Limit the centrifuges to only 5,060 and such centrifuges
must already be old and the least efficient (BBC, 2019)
Reducing Iran’s Uranium Stockpile to 300kg and it must not
exceed at that level until the year 2031 (BBC, 2019)
Research and development is limited until 2024 (Afary, 2019)
Redesigning of a heavy-water reactor that contains plutonium
which can be a potential creator of a nuclear bomb to a point
where it can no longer produce any weapon-grade plutonium
(Afary, 2019)
Assigning inspectors from the International Atomic Energy
Agency to inspect and monitor Iran’s declared nuclear sites as
well as verifying whether Iran is following the agreement in not
possessing enough materials that could potentially be an
atomic bomb (Davenport, n.d)
AN ANALYSIS
According to President Trump, the deal was a “horrible one-sided deal
that should never, ever have been made. It didn’t bring calm, it didn’t
bring peace, and it never will.”
Why did the US pull out?
The Trump administration is applying the same strategy of the
North Korea denuclearization: hard economic sanctions were
imposed
He believes that this is what brought North Korea to the
negotiating table
Trump perceives the reimposition of sanctions on Iran as a
message to North Korea that he won't accept terms that will
allow North Korea to restart a nuclear program.

US PULLS OUT OF THE DEAL: AN ANALYSIS

Consequence of Trump’s actions: 
This puts Iran at a delicate position of two ways to move forward:  Evidence: for radicals prevailing in Iran parliament are events
(1) continue to abide by the deal and try to gain the support of the such as the burning of the US flag as well as a copy of the deal
international community to decrease US pressure, and demands for Rouhanni to resign.
(2) slowly increase its nuclear and missile activities to re-exert its He was central to negotiating the deal with the Obama
own pressure against America. Iran chose the latter administration. 
Implications of US pulling out: 
Why did Iran choose the latter: 
It will be more difficult for other signatories (EU, Germany, etc) to
Radical elements within the govt of Iran could be empowered by
abide by the deal in fear Trump's threat to impose economic
the rhetoric that the US is unable to comply to its own end of the
bargain (thus sidelining the moderates).  sanctions on those willing to cooperate with Iran 
Iran has a potential interest to exploit such diplomatic Sends a message that US is unwilling or unable to comply with its
disruption in order to unleash an attack against the Persian Gulf, commitments
Iraq, or elsewhere in the Middle East. Iranian rhetoric against the US grows stronger

TIMELINE ANALYSIS (DURING NUCLEAR PROGRAM → CREATION OF

THE DEAL)
Analysis on why a deal was struck

A deal was struck primarily because these parties were successful
in providing both disincentives and incentives for Iran to
cooperate
It was only when they creatively worsened Iran's no-deal options
and "upside potential" did Iran finally accepted and complied with
an agreement to significantly reduce its enrichment program
This is because Iran's primary interest is to achieve security within
the region (as previously mentioned)  personality and policy preference without negating any former
As the initial motivation of its pursuit of nuclearisation, ensuring
mutual benefit from the deals struck by the P5 is important to Iran
Conclusion: With Iran's economy crippled by the multiple
sanctions imposed by the US, EU and UN, along with the promise
brought about by an agreement, Iran saw it fit to eventually
comply with the international community in halting its programs
It was also a change in Iranian leadership that made the deal possible
For the new leader, President Hassan Rouhani, there are many
benefits to halting its nuclear program
First: a signal that policy towards the nuclear program could help
prevent a potential preemptive and policy reference
Second:  new leadership represents a natural change in leader
administration’s sentiment on nuclear weapons which could
otherwise threaten international standing
Third: the new leader will reap the benefits of being credited as
the leader who brought in military and economic assistance as
well as ending years of economic sanctions and isolation.

JCOA IN RELATION TO IR THEORY

Firstly, the intuitive stance for the Hobbesian "self-help" anarchy of Realist IR
is that states often pursue arms in order to ensure security.
Evidenced from its geopolitical insecurity, Iran is surrounded by a
Why Iran as a nuclear power is dangerous
range of hostile states many of which are connected to the United
States
More so, since two of those neighboring countries - Israel and Pakistan
- have already attained nuclear powers
The presence of its military currently extends all around Iran's borders
from its Sunni rival Saudi Arabia as well territories of two of Iran's
regional rivals: Afghanistan and Iraq → Two of which are subjected to
an aggressive US policy regime-change
From a realist perspective, it is logical to argue that Iran has a
legitimate systematic cause for geopolitical insecurity and ->
Therefore, seek nuclearisation as a form of ensuring security
(Biswas, 2018)
World powers fear that an aggressive and ideological Iran, not
able or willing to be contained in unlike other nuclear powers, will
invoke nuclear vengeance on its rivals. also poses the risk of Iran
selling nuclear weapons, materials, technology to even more
undeterrable terrorists
Effects of Iranian nuclearization on proliferation outcomes. A
security dilemma is at risk of erupting once Iran establishes its
nuclear power.
Pursuit of nuclear weapons by another signatory of the Nuclear
nonproliferation Treaty might cause other signatories to also
violate the treaty