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Sugar Sector: Good in Parts
Sugar Sector: Good in Parts
Sugar Sector: Good in Parts
December 2008
Sugar Sector
Good in parts
Tushar Manudhane
(TusharManudhane@PLIndia.com)
+91-22-6632 2238
Contents
_______________________________________________________________________________
Page No.
_______________________________________________________________________________
Industry
Sugar cycle turning positive 4
Supply-demand mismatch to improve margins 5
Alternate crops to sugarcane are more profitable 7
Minimal impact on domestic sugar prices 8
Domestic Scenario for Ethanol 10
SAP to impact margins of UP-based mill owners 11
Upturn and Forward integration – to enhance margins of mill owners 12
Companies
Shree Renuka Sugars 14
Bajaj Hindustan 17
Balrampur Chini 20
Annexure
Manufacturing Process 24
Value Flow Chart 25
_______________________________________________________________________________
(Prices as on December 24, 2008)
2
Industry
3
Sugar cycle turning positive
Factors impacting this cycle
Domestic factors
× Reduction in cultivation area for sugarcane by
17% in FY09 and further reduction of 6-8%
expected in FY10 / diversion of cultivation area
2-3 for alternate crops.
ye
ar
s This would result in reduction in
incremental supply by 4.2 MT, where
incremental demand is expected to rise by
0.9 MT on an average over the next couple
of years.
× Natural factors like delay in monsoon and flood in
2-3 western UP during this season would impact yield
ye of sugar from sugarcane.
ars
International factors
× EU, who was one of the major exporters, is
expected to become net importer by 2010.
Ø Fall in price of crude oil to about US$40-45 per
barrel reduces incentive to produce more
ethanol which further impacts supply demand of
sugar at global scale.
4
Supply-demand mismatch to improve margins
Demand Drivers
30% of total consumption is used directly by household, while 70% is used indirectly.
Sugar consumption is expected to grow at the rate of 4-4.5 % because of
steady growth of population by 1.3-1.4% per annum
ƒ
5
Contd...
Supply Constraints
Reduction in production of sugarcane may result in reduction of closing stock over next two years
6
Alternate crops to sugarcane are more profitable
Maharashtra (this state contributes 32% of total domestic sugar production):
Either of these four combinations could be used by the
farmer
Crop Wheat Jowar Sweetcorn Bajra Moong 1 Jowar+1 1 Jowar+1 1 Moong+1 Sugarcane
Wheat Sweetcorn Sweetcorn
+1 Bajra
Yield (Qtl / Acre) 15 15 20 12 3 30 35 35 330
SP (Rs / Qtl) 1,000 700 800 800 1,700 1,700 1,500 3,300 140
Total Earnings 15,000 10,500 16,000 9,600 5,100 25,500 26,500 30,700 46,200
Cultivation Cost (Rs / Acre) 7,029 5,000 5,000 4,500 1,500 12,029 10,000 11,000 17,215
Net Earnings 7,971 5,500 11,000 5,100 3,600 13,471 16,500 19,700 28,985
Earnings (As % of cost) 113.4 110.0 220.0 113.3 240.0 112.0 165.0 179.1 168.4
Source: PL Research Jowar: Jun-Jul, Wheat: Nov-Apr, Sweetcorn: Nov-Jan, Bajra: Apr-May, Sugarcane: Oct-Jan (Next year)
Uttar Pradesh (this state contributes 30% of total domestic sugar production):
Crop Wheat Paddy 1 Wheat + 1 Paddy Sugarcane
7
Minimal impact on domestic sugar prices
The world sugar trade accounts for 35-40% of Major exporters
global sugar production of approx. 161m tonnes. 27%
Brazil
2%
EU
While Brazil’s influence in global trade is
2% Australia
expected to increase, EU is expected to become a
marginal player by 2010. 2% India
34% Thailand
This scenario is expected to improve the prices of 3%
Guatemela
sugar at global level. 2% Columbia
S. Africa
Another factor that would drive sugar prices at 7%
global level is alternate use of cane for ethanol 21% Others
production. Fuel ethanol substitutes gasoline and Source: Company Data, PL Research
hence substitutes crude oil.
This linkage is primarily driven by Brazil’s policy Going ahead - weak relation between global and domestic
of dynamic management of its share of ethanol sugar prices
and sugar production. 500 White Sugar Domestic price (RHS) 2,200
450
2,000
400
1,800
(Rs/Quintal)
($/tonne) 350
300 1,600
250
1,400
200
150 1,200
Jul-07
Jan-05
Jun-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Mar-04
Nov-05
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-03
Oct-08
Source: Bloomberg
8
Contd...
Brazil
MY2004-05 MY2005-06 MY2006-07 MY2007-08
Sugarcane Production (m tonne) 386 387 428 491
Supply of sucrose (m tonne) 55 55 62 71
Sucrose for Ethanol production (m tonne) 28 28 32 38
Sugarcane converted to alcohol (%) 49.9 51.5 50.5 54.5
Source: Brazil Biofuels Ethanol Annual Report 2008, MY- Marketing Year- May-April
Proportion of sugarcane for Ethanol in Brazil has been increasing YoY and is expected to increase to 58% in MY2008-
09, as ethanol blending is a cost effective process as compared to supplying non-blended petrol for transportation.
Global factors affects India in a small way because
very high import duty on sugar (about 60%).
exports are regulated by government by controlling export subsidy on sugar.
9
Domestic Scenario for Ethanol
Source: Crisil
10
SAP to impact margins of UP-based mill owners
Cost of sugarcane (Rs / Kg of sugar) 11.0 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0
Total cost of producing sugar to mill owners ( Rs / Kg of 15.65 17.15 18.15 19.15 19.65 20.15 20.65
sugar)
Source: PL Research
In Karnataka, where yield of sugar from sugarcane is about 11 -11.5% Situation expected in 2008-09 and 2009-10
Cost of sugarcane (Rs / Kg of sugar) 11.0 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0
Total cost of producing sugar to mill owners ( Rs / Kg of 14.61 15.96 16.86 17.76 18.21 18.66 19.11
sugar)
Source: PL Research
We expect the cost of producing sugar in UP to be more than its selling price, thus contributing negatively for the
business.
In Karnataka, due to higher yield, we expect cost of producing sugar to be less than its selling price, thus
contributing positively for the business.
11
Upturn and Forward integration – to enhance
margins of mill owners
Mill owners would be benefited in terms of improvement Domestic Sugar prices
in margins due to:
Lower sugar production which would continue for 2,200
1-2 years, thus firming the prices of sugar. We 2,000
expect average sugar price at Rs1900 per quintal
in 2009 and Rs2000 per quintal in 2010. 1,800
(Rs / quintal)
Forward integration across the value chain would 1,600
further enhance the profitability of mill owners, as 1,400
we also expect ethanol price to firm-up.
1,200
However, higher cane price would reduce margins to
1,000
some extent.
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-99
Oct-00
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Due to low yield of sugar in UP as against higher yield in
Karnataka, we expect mills based in Karnataka to be
benefited more than those in UP. Source: Bloomberg, PL research
BUY Shree Renuka Sugars, REDUCE Bajaj Hindustan and
Balrampur Chini.
Key Financials
Y/e Sept\ SRSL BJH BCL
FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08E FY09E FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E
Sales (Rs m) 21,143 23,661 34,764 21,117 25,540 28,913 14,909 15,389 18,316
EBIDTA Margin (%) 11.9 18.9 17.6 15.9 20.0 21.6 21.1 17.6 18.3
FDEPS (Rs.) 5.0 8.5 12.4 -3.2 3.1 12.9 3.2 2.0 3.9
PE (x) 12.5 7.4 5.0 - 20.8 4.9 14.8 22.9 11.8
Debit / Equity (x) 1.2 0.6 0.4 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2
RoE (%) 9.3 22.6 24.4 -3.2 3.2 12.4 8.6 5.4 9.8
RoCE (%) 10.8 14.9 17.7 1.3 5.5 8.4 6.5 5.2 7.0
P/BV (x) 2.2 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.2
Mkt Cap/ Sales (x) 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.6
M/Cap (Rs m) 19,216 19,216 19,216 9,036 9,036 9,036 11,628 11,628 11,628
12
Companies
13
CMP: Rs65
Shree Renuka Sugars BUY Target Price: Rs89
Shares O/s.: 297m
Increasing diversification: SRSL has been trying to Source: Company Data, PL Research
diversify its business to reduce the impact of cyclicality
of sugar by increasing business of distillery and power.
Contribution of distillery and power are expected to Profitability & Valuation
increase from 7.3% and 5.1% in FY08 to 17.4% and 6.6%, Y/e September FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
respectively by FY10.
EBIDTA Margin (%) 13.9 11.9 18.9 17.6
RoE likely to remain stable: RoCE is expected to RoE (%) 22.3 20.4 22.6 24.4
improve from 12.2% in FY08 to 17.7% in FY10 due to RoCE(%) 10.3 12.2 14.9 17.7
improvement in EBIT margin as well as asset turnover. So
EV/ Sales (x) 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.7
RoE is also likely to improve to 24.4% in FY10, but would
be affected due to lower leverage impact. EV / EBIDTA (x) 6.1 11.0 6.0 4.1
PER (x) 1.9 14.2 7.6 5.2
Valuation: We expect 11.9% growth in topline in FY2008-
P / BV (x) 0.4 2.2 1.4 1.1
09 and 46.9% in FY2009-10. We also expect bottom-line
to grow by 86.9% and 47.4% in FY2008-09 and FY2009-10, Net Dividend yield (%) - 0.2 0.3 0.5
respectively, giving an EPS of Rs8.5 and Rs12.4 in Source: Company Data, PL Research
FY2008-09 and FY2009-10, respectively.
14
SRSL’s growth plan
Particulars FY2008 FY2009P FY2010P
Crushing Capacity (TCD) 27,750 35,000 35,000
Refining Capacity (TPD) 2000- Haldia, 2000- Haldia, 2000- Haldia,
2000-Plants,
2000-Plants 2000-Plants 2000 Mundra
Sugar production capacity (m tonnes) 1.4 1.6 2.3
Ethanol production KLPD 450-Integrated, 900-Integrated, 900-Integrated,
100 – Secondary 300-Secondary 300-Secondary
Ethanol production capacity (m litres) 140 330 330
Power Capacity 103.5 MW, 55 MW Surplus 129 MW, 70 MW Surplus 164 MW , 90 MW Surplus
Source: PL Research Year ending - September
15
Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet (Rs m)
Y/e September FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E Y/e September FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
EBIT margin (%) 13.9 11.9 18.9 17.6 Total Current Liab. & Prov 1,218 2,789 1,800 3,200
Net Current Assets 3,218 4,874 8,157 9,889
PBT 1,066 1,784 3,326 4,881
Total 11,111 17,929 21,531 23,954
Total Tax 236 427 812 1,188
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Effective Tax rate (%) 14.0 23.9 24.4 24.3
PAT 830 1,332 2,489 3,668 Major Shareholders
Source: Company Data, PL Research Promoters 40.5%
Foreign 24.0%
Domestic Inst. 10.50%
Public & Others 24.9%
16
PB/MDF – Another growth driver for BHL
The principal usage of MDF/particle board is in the construction of cupboards, shutters and wardrobes, shel].68w[(oaxd51nl5
18
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet (Rs m)
Y/e September FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E Y/e September FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
EBIT 612 644 2,734 3,826 Total Current Assets 20,549 15,678 15,490 11,751
EBIT margin (%) 3.4 3.0 10.7 13.2 Total Current Liab. & Prov 7,143 2,855 2,752 2,010
Net Current Assets 10,420 11,044 10,959 7,961
PBT (303) (1,427) 484 2,033
Total 51,266 50,474 47,964 42,605
Total Tax (160) (980) 48 203
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Effective Tax rate (%) 52.9 68.7 10.0 10.0
PAT (103) (447) 435 1,830
Major Shareholders
Promoters 45.7%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Foreign 13.9%
Domestic Inst. 13.1%
Public & Others 27.3%
19
CMP: Rs47
Balrampur Chini Reduce Target Price: Rs28
Shares O/s.: 248m
Higher Cane price and flood to impact profitability: We Profitability & Valuation
expect BCL to maintain the RoCE as well as RoE over the
period from FY2007-08 to 2009-10. RoCE as well as RoE Y/e September FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
may get lower in the year 2008-09 mainly due to higher EBIDTA Margin (%) 5.5 21.1 17.6 18.3
cane price of Rs 140 per quintal and reduction in RoE (%) (7.4) 8.6 5.4 9.8
sugarcane crushing due to flood in western UP. RoCE and
RoCE(%) 0.2 6.5 5.2 7.0
RoE are expected to improve in FY2009-10 mainly due to
higher sugar price, higher ethanol price. EV/ Sales (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.3
EV / EBIDTA (x) 32.1 8.2 8.9 7.0
Valuation: We expect 3.2% growth in topline in FY2008- PER (x) (18.4) 14.9 23.1 11.9
09 and 17.9% in FY2009-10. We expect bottomline to de-
P / BV (x) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2
grow by 35.6% in FY2008-09 and grow by 93.7% in
FY2008-09 and FY2009-10 resp. giving an EPS of Rs 2.0 Net Dividend yield (%) - 2.1 2.1 2.1
and Rs 3.9 in FY2008-09 and FY2009-10 respectively. Source: Company Data, PL Research
20
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet (Rs m)
Y/e September FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E Y/e September FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
Net Revenues 13,948 14,909 15,389 18,136 Sources of Fund
EBIT margin (%) 0.2 13.7 9.5 11.3 Total Current Liab. & Prov. 4,001 3,000 3,550 3,050
Net Current Assets 2,802 5,461 5,449 6,434
PBT (568) 1,039 594 1,227
Total 22,719 24,555 23,278 23,063
Total Tax 65 256 90 250
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Effective Tax rate (%) (11.4) 24.6 15.1 20.4
PAT (470) 783 504 977 Major Shareholders
Source: Company Data, PL Research Promoters 35.7%
Foreign 20.6%
Domestic Inst. 24.1%
Public & Others 19.6%
21
Comparison on main parameters
22
Annexure
23
Manufacturing Process
Weighing and Preparing Cane To Grid
Juice Evaporation
Bio-composting
Syrup Boiling
24
Value Flow Chart
100 Kgs of Sugarcane gives approx. (9-11) Kgs of 1 Tonne of Molasses gives approx. 220-250L of
Sugar, (5-6) Kgs of Molasses, 33 Kgs of Bagasse Alcohol
1 Quintal of Bagasse can generate approx. 35 units
of power
25
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3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400 018, India.
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
45% 42.2%
40% 35.9%
35%
% of Total Coverage
30%
25%
18.8%
20%
15%
10%
3.1%
5%
0%
Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell
BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months
Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12-months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12-months
Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1-month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1-month
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly
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