Tutorial 04

1. An analysis of flood data showed that the probability of a flood

peak exceeding 3000 m3/s on Kiami river in any year was 0.02. During
a 10 year period 2 such peaks occurred.

If the original estimate of the probability of this exceedance was correct, what
is the probability of getting 2 such exceedance in 10 years?

2. The analysis of daily extreme runoff data using Gumbel

distribution shows that;

Pr [ X ≤ 100 m3/s ] = 0.90

Pr [ X ≤ 130 m3/s ] = 0.98

Compute the daily runoff for a return period of 100 years.