Dark Tourism in the Philippines Islands: Emerging Research and Opportunities

January 2019
DOI:
10.4018/978-1-5225-7393-7.ch002

Book Review Reviewed by Maximiliano E. Korstanje Email: mkorst@palermo.edu Virtual Dark Tourism:
Ghost Roads by: Kathryn N. McDaniel Published 2018 by Palgrave Macmillan One New York Plaza, Suite
4500, New York, US, 323pp ISBN: 978-331974687-6

The confusion revolving around the term dark tourism is not otiose, as well as the criticism this
emerging segment has received over the recent years. No less true is that if dark tourism seems to be
very hard to grasp, ‘virtual dark tourism’ is harder. This is the main goal of K. McDaniel, a Professor of
History at the Marietta College, who edits a fresh and innovative book on virtual dark tourism. The book
is divided into four sections (which are formed in 15 chapters). The chapters are gathered to keep the
same common-thread argument. The first section signals to the literacy and fiction novels where death
is centred as the main protagonist player. From the Lovecraft’s legacy to Connie Willis or Cornelius Ryan,
the section looks to draw the fictional landscapes of dark tourism in the ink of seminal authors and
writers. Not in vain, this section is entitled literary journeys. The fact is that these imaginaries pasts are
re-elaborated to interrogate the present as McDaniel acknowledges in her prefatory introduction. In the
hands of brilliant fiction writers, authors who take part of these chapters toy with the belief that writers
have the capacity to transport readers in fictional times and cultures, alluding to the tragedy as a key
factor that helps them to interpret their own present life. To some extent, this is a type of virtuality,
which associates to the human power of imagination. The second part centres the influence of the film
industry to portray vicarious trauma and atrocities committed in the pastime. For some reason, as the
chapter dedicated to the Game of Throne showed, the fictional events as they happened in the film not
only are extrapolated by real facts but also determine our own behaviour in the here-and-now. In this
respect, virtual dark tourism merges with the real world. Far from causing a disrupting effect, disasters
enhance the social cohesion leading the society toward the consolidation of identity. The traumatic
event is rememorised to inspire the emotionality of global audiences, paving the ways for a unified
sentiment of empathy for the other’s suffering. The third section (internet tours) discusses the
importance of the internet, which plays a leading role as an articulator of experiences, sensations and
anxieties. The three chapters forming this section deal with sensitive issues such as Rwandan genocide,
Katrina hurricane and the resulted devastation in New Orleans and Haiti earthquake. Although the
methodologies of each chapter really vary, the section delineates the contours of a new argumentation,
where the role played by the media, photography 2 Book Review and game simulation in order to
construct the allegory of disaster is evident. For the authors’ viewpoint, virtual dark tourism reproduces
‘meaningful experience’ through the engagement with real disasters. The fourth section, at least for this
reviewer one of the best of the book, examines the interactive games, which recreate fantastic
cosmologies, as a fertile ground for next approaches and research. As Juliane Schlag puts it (in her
chapter dedicated to surviving the Colonial Blizzard and its connection with native peoples), games are
far from solving the traumatic past of the exploited ethnicities but it betters the positions of users
interested in creating a necessary synergy to learn the lesson. The present book reminds the needs of
overcoming the current criticism around dark tourism. In fact, as the editor overtly said, virtual dark
tourism resolves partially the limitations and contradictions of dark consumption. One of them consists
in the distortion some dark sites offers respecting to the real past. Though dark tourism gives a lesson to
society, sometimes when the message is commoditised the rememoration would be far from history. As
McDaniel observes, the literature, film, internet site and games start a travel internalising in the users
the possibilities of being there (without vulnerating the rights of natives). Secondly, dark tourism
suddenly emerges without any type of planning or caution for the local life. Virtual dark tourism is
regulated to protect the identity and the mourning of community. What is more important, virtual dark
tourists are not directly involved in a travel (gazing or possessing others) but only can grasp the
experience by reading a book or watching a TV documentary. This leads the editor to assume that virtual
dark tourism allows more virtuous and ethical experiences because the consumed narratives are
carefully designed. McDaniel argues convincingly that virtual dark tourism not only substitutes the
psychical travel, which permits an obtrusive gaze but ignites a hot debate revolving memory, tragedy
and the human condition (if not its vulnerability). After carefully reviewing this manuscript, one might
find that editor, as well as invited authors, attempt to present a high-quality work that discusses dark
tourism from a new innovative angle. The technological breakthrough in Western civilisation ushered
scholars and thinkers in reconsidering not only the essence of tourism but dark tourism. Although
recommendable as a must-read book, Virtual Dark Tourism: Ghost Roads replicates the same ideological
discourses that situate dark tourism as an anthropological attempt to engage with the other’s pain. With
a strong focus in the fields of heritage and identity, these approaches gloss over the figure of heritage as
the symbolic touchstone of colonial rule and the rise of the western nation-state as a global project.
Rather, for this reviewer and others scholars, dark tourism and virtual dark tourism still remain as an
ideological dispositifs where the other’s suffering becomes in a criterion of supremacy and
entertainment. To this new world, we have named as ‘Thana-Capitalism’. Far from being emphatic with
the others, dark tourism reinforces old colonial stereotypes that mark the non-western alterity as
inferior or simply culturally constrained to be excluded from the ideals of democracy and the promised
benefits of free-trade (Korstanje, 2016, 2018). The sense of risk has been commoditised as a form of
(morbid) spectacle that divides the ‘chosen peoples’ from the doomed ones.

References
Korstanje, M. (2016) The Rise of Thana Capitalism and Tourism, Routledge, Abingdon. Korstanje, M.
(2018) The Mobilities Paradox: A Critical Analysis, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of Philippine Online News Media

Marc Agon Pacoma

Adamson University
900 San Marcelino St, Ermita, Manila, NCR, Philippines
Email: marckiepacoma@yahoo.com.ph, Phone +63 939 9302685

How to Cite This Article: Pacoma, M.A. (2019). Revision: 07-02-2019, Acceptance: 15-02-2019,
Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Published online: 2-3-2019.
Change Coverage of Philippine Online News
Media. Jurnal Studi Komunikasi, 3(1). Doi:
10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Received: 01-11-2018,

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues at the present time, imposing great threats to human
life and society. With issues surrounding climatic information, media seemed to play the most important
role in addressing this problem. The inadequacy of researches on climatic coverage by media had
motivated the researcher to embark on this exploration. This content analysis compared daily coverage
of online news portals (Philippine Daily Inquirer, Manila Bulletin and Philippine Star) on climate change
and climatic science-related issues from 2015-2016. The results indicated that there was a relative
increase on climate change coverage by the media in a span of two years. Environmental frames,
government sources, the Paris Agreement, the news section, and wired photos were the dominant
themes that emerged during the coding process, which reflects and resonates similar findings of
research inquiries on climate change coverage.

Keywords: Climate Change; Media Coverage; Philippines; Online News Portals; Content Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Climate change is the most immense, serious, and pressing issue in the contemporary times that impose
potential risks to society and great threats to humanity. It is considered to be the foremost
environmental hazard in the world (Olausson, 2011). From the words of former United Nations
Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moon (2014), it is the greatest challenge facing humanity, an ultimate
cataclysmic collective human experience. This global phenomenon has become a common topic among
debates and discourses such as in the academe, legislation, politics, and media. And with media’s
primary role of informing the public, it is paramount that crucial issues such as environment and health
to be shared for their knowledge and welfare. As Boykoff and Robert (2007) stressed that mass media
coverage is significant in facilitating public understanding, shaping public opinion and promoting public
action. But it seems that this environmental issue is constrained only on the utopias and heterotopias of
public rhetoric. And despite its possible dangers to humankind and the environment, climate change
mitigation efforts are considered to be at a sluggish pace, imperiling the world to more relatively
catastrophic outcomes. With issues surrounding climatic information, media seemed to play the most
important role in addressing this problem, specifically on covering and representing environment and
climate change as a way in creating public awareness among news consumers. In the global scale, there
are enormous studies focusing on media content and media reception in connection to climate change.
But there are also limited literatures and relatively few studies dealing with climatic variability in the
country. Regarding those issues, the researcher aims to fill this research gap by doing an academic
inquiry centring on leading Philippine broadsheets’ coverage of climate change. Taking references from
previous writings, the researcher explored how print media covers and reports climate change and
climate-related issues through its news articles and photos. Foreign studies and literature anchored this
study, among these: print media’s coverage of climate change (Carvalho & Burgess, 2005; Antilla, 2005;
Boykoff, 2007; Sampei & Aoyagi-Usui, 2008; Good, 2008; Liu, Vedlitz & Alston, 2008; Boykoff, 2008;
Dotson, 2009; Herberg, 2009; Boykoff, 2010; Ahchong & Dodds, 2011; León & Erviti, 2011; Nielsen &
Kjærgaard, 2011; Lyytimäki, 2011; Tillinghast & McCann, 2013; Asplund, Hjerpe, & Wibeck, 2012; Young
& Dugas, 2012; Fahey, 2013; Takahashi & Meisner, 2013; Schäfer, Ivanova & Schmidt, 2013; Werner,
2014; Stewart, 2014; Ford & King, 2015; Feldman, Hart Jurnal Studi Komunikasi, 3(1), 2019 ISSN: 2549-
7294 (Print), 2549-7626 (Online) 3 & Milosevic, 2015; Boykoff & Luedecke, 2016); online media’s
coverage of climate change (Arcila-Calderón et al.,2015); newspaper coverage of United Nations
Conferences (Kumpu, 2013; Faisal & Zannat, 2014); various media platforms’ coverage of climate change
(Speers, 2005; Boykoff & Boykoff, 2007; Xie, 2009; Feldman et al., 2011; Shehata & Hopmann, 2012;
Huertas & Adler, 2012; Poberezhkaya, 2013; Meiring, 2013; Shrestha, Burningham & Grant, 2014;
Painter, 2014; Olteanu et al., 2015); presence of newspaper bias on global warming and risk mitigation
(Boykoff & Boykoff, 2004); perceptions of audiences on climatic variability news (Koteyko, Jaspal &
Nerlich, 2012; Brewer & McKnight, 2015); and the visual representations of climate change (Smith &
Joffe, 2009; O’Neill, 2013; O’Neill & Smith, 2014; RebichHespanha et al., 2015; Rebich-Hespanha & Rice,
2016). Other climate-related literature and studies also anchored this academic inquiry: climate TV
weathercasters’ role in climate change issues (Maibach, Wilson & Witte, 2010); climate attitude and
knowledge of print journalists (Amu & Agwu, 2012); media coverage of environmental, adaptation and
mitigation policies (Speck, 2010; Bacon, 2011; Keskitalo, Westerhoff & Juhola, 2012; Bacon, 2013;
Takahashi & Meisner, 2013; Ford & King, 2015; Dolšak & Houston, 2014)); media as a tool in increasing
climate change awareness (Boykoff & Roberts, 2007; Crowder, 2009; Harvey, 2011; Akpan et al., 2012;
Zhao et al., 2013; Deepak, 2014; Burningham & Grant, 2014); and relationship between science or
environmental reporting and political news coverage (Zhao et al., 2011). Surprisingly, in the Philippines,
setting studies on climate change are few, which imposes an idea of scarcity that goes correspondingly
towards media coverage of this global phenomenon. Previous studies were slanted towards
developmental communication and communitybased adaptation and mitigation but with less interest
on media-focused researches.

This research inquiry aimed to close the gap in this field of study, as no previous study dealing with the
same theme has been conducted. Researches centring on media with emphasis on climatic reporting
have shown to facilitate understanding of the issue. Moreover, these inquiries highlighted media as the
audience’s primary source of information. Ironically, despite being a climatic-vulnerable nation, there
are only few researches regarding the climate change in the Philippines. Few have been written and
investigated on the relationship of Philippine media and climate change. This inadequacy interests the
author, leading to an exploration of newspaper coverage on climatic issue. The current study centered
its discussion on the coverage of climate change in the three (3) leading Philippine broadsheets.
Specifically, the author selected climate science articles published through the newspapers’ online
portals from 2014-2016 due to their digital availability and accessibility. The study dealt with news
articles, imageries or photos Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of Philippine
Online News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 4 with headlines or captions on
climate change located on these publications. Specifically, the researcher seeks to answer the following
questions:

1) What is the frequency of climate change coverage in the leading Philippine broadsheet?

2) What is the most common focus of climate change-related articles and images in the Philippine Print
Media?

3) What is the extent of presentation or depiction of climate change in the leading newspapers in terms
of issue of the article; solution being proposed; scope of the issue; and scope of the solution?

4) How is climate change being framed in selected broadsheets?

5) What are the various coverage frames being used by different publications in covering climate
change issues?

6) What section of newspaper is inclined in covering climate change issues?

7) What types of articles and visuals are more inclined to report climate change?

8) What types of news and graphics sources are being utilised by the different broadsheets in covering
climate change? The term “climate change” itself was conceived in 1966 by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) proposing climatic change to encompass any forms of climate variability either
brought by natural or anthropogenic causes. It later becomes common household name as it is recently.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or UNFCCC (1992) defined climate
change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods.” This definition synonymously constituted to the idea that this global
phenomenon is a result of human activities, placing a greater emphasis on mankind’s environmental
actions as identified causal factors of alterations in the climate systems. Moreover, it presented an
identical cause and effect relationship between humanity and the ecosystem. Stressing that human
activities in any way result into climate change, illustrating the principle of causation as action and
reaction

Offering a different definition, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC (2007) referred
climate change as: “… a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical
tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended
period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity”. Moreover, climate change “may be due to natural internal
processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the
atmosphere or in land use.” Unlike with UNFCCC’s definition, IPCC states more scientific approach,
pinpointing statistics as an important tool in gaining better understanding of climate change and its
occurrences. This empowers the general public to have an increasing awareness and astonishing
resilience on this phenomenon, exposing them to various mitigation processes. Jurnal Studi Komunikasi,
3(1), 2019 ISSN: 2549-7294 (Print), 2549-7626 (Online) 5 The impeding threat of climate change is
beyond imagination, and that information on this phenomenon must be mainstreamed in order to
promote greater awareness and profound understanding among various publics. These environmental
threats are conditioned by influential and pervasive (Hansen, 1993) array of platforms suitably
performing this important role – the media, which is ascribed generally in information dissemination
and mediating education. Moreover, media bears crucial responsibility of representing the environment
in such fashion that highlights its issues and concerns through numerous formats such as news and
documentaries and depicts nature’s vastness and beauty through travel programs and environment-
themed shows (Speers, 2005). This demonstrates the interplay of environment and the media, as
Hansen (1993) argues that people’s environmental information and knowledge are based on their
learnings from their direct exposure to various media platforms, leading to the construction of ideas and
concepts on political, social and ecological reality. In return, the members of the public rely heavily on
media for scientific information (Nisbet et al., 2002). In this context, the strong relationship between the
public and the media as dependence of the former with the latter in accessing information like climate
change is evident (Carvalho et al., 2008). Dependence of the public on media as the premier source of
science information and environmental issues is extremely evident on extensive public surveys (Speers,
2005). This had proven mass media coverage’s outstanding record for being a significant catalyst and
facilitator for public understandings and action on issues concerning technology, environment, and risk
(Boykoff & Roberts, 2007). Exposure to media has a significant impact on the knowledge and awareness
of individuals, as it guides them on what to think and prioritize on their daily lives (Mikami, Takeshita &
Kawabata, 1999). Whatever they see and hear about climate change constructs their awareness and
understanding of this global environmental issue. Hence, news media performs the primary role of
mediating between science, citizens and politics (Olausson, 2011). Framing plays pivotal role in news
and media coverages. Media utilise various framing approaches and categories in covering climate
change and often “…through the practice of interjecting and emphasizing controversy or disagreement
among scientists’; this often creates drama and provides journalists ‘with a guise of objectivity’” (Zehr,
2000). Tankard (2001) defined frame as a thematic unit or ‘‘a central organizing idea for news content
that supplies a context and suggests what the issue is through the use of selection, emphasis, exclusion,
and elaboration’’. It is also the defining of issues for public disseminations and consumptions (Berinsky &
Kinder, 2006), and by making sense of a perceived reality, a meaning is constructed that defines a
communication text in order to promote a particular problem, definition, interpretation, moral
judgment and action (Entman, 1993). Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of
Philippine Online News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 6 Previous studies
dealing with media’ s coverage of climate change employed several frames: political (Boykoff, 2008;
Tillinghast & McCann, 2013; Takahashi & Meisner, 2013; Faisal & Zannat, 2014); environmental (Boykoff,
2008; Agwu & Amu, 2013; Meiring, 2013; Faisal & Zannat, 2014; Rebich-Hespanha et al., 2015); thematic
(Dotson, 2009; Xie, 2009; Tillinghast & McCann, 2013); episodic (Iyengar, 1987 & 1991; Check, 1995; von
Storch & Strauss, 2005; Nitz & Ihlen, 2006; Boykoff & Boykoff, 2007; Hutchison, 2008; Dotson, 2009; Xie,
2009; Tillinghast & McCann, 2013); economic (Boykoff, 2008; Dotson, 2009; Nisbet & Scheufele, 2009;
Dirikx & Gelders, 2010; Young & Dugas, 2012; Agwu & Amu, 2013; Tillinghast & McCann, 2013;
Chongkolrattanaporn, 2013); substantive (Dotson, 2009); ambiguous (Antilla, 2005; Dotson, 2009);
cultural or social (Boykoff, 2008; Dirikx & Gelders, 2010; Tillinghast & McCann, 2013;
Chongkolrattanaporn, 2013; Takahashi & Meisner, 2013; Rebich-Hespanha et al., 2015); scientific
(Nisbet & Scheufele, 2009; Tillinghast & McCann, 2013; Meiring, 2013; Agwu & Amu, 2013;
Chongkolrattanaporn, 2013; Takahashi & Meisner, 2013). Of the several frames presented, six have
been used in order to evaluate the frames of climate change coverage in the Philippines: 1)
Environmental. It focuses on the ecology, ecosystem, natural resources and biodiversity;

2) Scientific. It involves scientific reports, new discoveries and technologies;

3) Political. It includes politics, politician, legislation and policy-making;

4) Economical. It centers on economy and business;

5) Cultural. It refers to people, civilization and society; and

6) Educational. It deals with information seeking and educational promotion. The study utilises
quantitative research design, employing content analysis which is a popular research method among
scholars who are investigating climate science and communication. Since the primary aim of this
research is to investigate the extent and scope of climate change coverage between print media outlets,
content analysis seemed to be the most appropriate method, which allows the researcher to look into
various news articles and pictures or photos of climate change in leading Philippine broadsheets.
Specifically, a quantitative content analysis was utilised, where a standardized codebook was developed
in order to code the content of online news articles, allowing statistical analysis (Metag, 2016).

The sampling units for the study were: all articles and photos on climate change in the Philippine Daily
Inquirer, Manila Bulletin, and Philippine Star from 2015 to 2016. Coding units on the other hand were
determined and distinguished for the coding process. A manual content analysis was utilised, employing
human coders (research assistants) to code the online news articles manually. Articles and graphic
materials were sought from the three newspaper companies’ online portals. Selection of articles were
done randomly by specifically keying in the word “Climate Change” in the search field of the three-
online news portal. Usage of the key word provided a long list Jurnal Studi Komunikasi, 3(1), 2019 ISSN:
2549-7294 (Print), 2549-7626 (Online) 7 of articles. Then, they were skimmed and scanned to get their
overall impression and to ensure that the articles are related to the topic. The researcher conveniently
selected the issues that covers, reports, and depicts climate change. Numbers were assigned per
publication name to ensure consistency and avoid redundancy.

The articles were viewed, read, analysed, and evaluated based on a coding sheet adapted from Devin
Dotson’s study newspaper coverage of climate change in 2009. Authorisation was sought from the
author before the adaptation through a formal letter sent online. Coders were given instructions on how
to code the online news articles by religiously following the codebook. Since the objective of the study is
to determine the extent and frequency, issue salience and issue attention of climate change reportage
in leading Philippine newspapers, the researcher used the Frequency or Resonance Analysis. This type of
analysis easily determines the counting of news items dealing with climate change over a certain period
of time. Specifically, counts analysis is employed to determine the frequency of each category in the
coding worksheet and cross tabulation was utilised (Metag, 2016) to present a comparison on the
coverage of climate change in leading Philippine broadsheets.

DISCUSSION

The primary aim of this research is to evaluate climate change coverage in Philippine news media and to
compare the results between the leading daily broadsheets. This was achieved and translated through
different tables showcasing the various results derived from the coding process. The Frequency of
Philippine Broadsheet’s Climate Change Coverage

The data revealed that the climate change coverage of Philippine news media had a relative increase
from 2015 to 2016. This is evident Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of
Philippine Online News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 8 on the rising trend in
Philippine Star’s climatic news from 88 (2015) to 113 (2016) and Philippine Daily Inquirer’s 48 articles in
2015 to 64 climate stories in 2016. There was a considerable difference on the amount of attention paid
by the different online news portals on climate change and this evident on the different frequencies of
news articles on climatic science.

The slight increase on online news media coverage of climate science may be credited to various
attributes: (1) political; (2) scientific; and (3) environmental or ecological which is in lined with the
findings of Boykoff and Boykoff (2005) that these elements had motivated the increase of climate
change coverage by media. In this sense, the 2016 Philippine Presidential election had become one of
the arena for climatic discourses through the numerous political debates, where presidential aspirants
presented their political platforms and agenda on climate change and the environment (political). Also,
with the Philippines being a prominent figure in United Nations climate talks, an active member of the
V20 (Vulnerable 20) and the popularisation of the Paris Climate Change Agreement has provided
reasons for news media to tackle climate change as a beat and topic of interest (scientific).

With the results, it constituted the realities of newspaper coverage if not that of the whole print media
system, that climate change and the environment are not part of the priority beats for news stories
among Philippine publications. The numbers may be increasing when it comes to the frequency of the
media coverage, but this does not present a strong hold on an extensive media climate reporting in the
Philippines. Moreover, it presented the fact that Filipino journalists, writers, and editors are not
scientifically or environmentally-inclined in terms of news reporting. Climate change and environment
have not been well-reported or well-covered as their frequencies remained low compared to other
articles focusing on crimes, politics, national and international affairs. Though the three Philippine news
portals covered climate change in an increasing manner from 2015-2016, frequency of climatic coverage
differed among the three leading broadsheets electronic counterparts. The results supported the
Research Hypothesis 1.

The Common Focus of Philippine Print Media’s Climate Change Related Articles and Image

Legend: PDI-Philippine Daily Inquirer; MB-Manila Bulletin; PS Philippine Star Similarly, the results
indicated that majority of the climatic news (220) are focused on solution. Specifically, Philippine Stars
had slanted their articles (145) on proposed solution that will resolve climate change as a global
environmental phenomenon, followed by Manila Bulletin’s 44 climatic news and Philippine Daily
Inquirer’s resolution-centred 31 climate news. Secondly, 116 online news were skewed as both,
presenting climate change as a problem and offer solutions to end this environmental issue. Explicitly,
Manila Bulletin and Philippine Star had this slant with the same number of 39 each while Philippine Daily
Inquirer had 38 online articles. Climate change as a problem was discussed in 82 articles across the three
leading broadsheets, with Philippine Daily Inquirer getting the biggest share with 31 stories followed by
Philippine Star with 28 and Manila Bulletin with 23 problemoriented articles. Other articles (17) were
tagged to discuss climate change but seemingly not as a problem, solution or both.

The data reflected the concept of newsworthiness or news value which Golding and Elliot (1979) stated
that news values play a significant role in selecting news materials or stories to be reported or
presented. As Speers (2005) suggested that journalists select some stories over the others or the
reporting or presentation techniques on the basis of news worthiness or news value; which news is
more significant or more appealing to the readers either on the basis of content or on the basis of style.
Such basis also comes from the various news values of prominence, human interest, proximity, oddity,
and timeliness among others. The dominance of solutions over problem on the focus of climatic stories
and articles had resonated Trumbo’s (1996) idea that it is “expected for climate change articles to slant
more on solutions than problems when the issue had matured, and scientists were no longer necessary
to explain the science of climate change.” The results showed that online articles predominantly focus
on solutions more than climate Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of
Philippine Online News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 10 change as an issue or
slanting climate science as both issue and solution, hence, reflective of Research Hypothesis 2.

Issue of the Article; Table 3. Frequency of Climate Change-Related Issues or Problems Across Philippine
Newspapers Climate Change-Related Issues or Problems

Overall, the most significant portion of 316 (72.64%) of online news covered climate change as others
(general), meaning this different climatic news did not discuss a specific issue or problem rather
reported this global issue in a universal fashion. Of the specific themes, Global Warming topped the list
with 56 (12.87%), followed by Disasters which was discussed in 24 instances (5.52%), then Sea Level
Change with 11 articles (2.53%) and Drought in 10 stories (2.30%). Shifting Season, Glacial Melt and
Coral Bleaching were the main focus on 12 online news (each with 4 or 0.92%). The rest of the climatic
articles equally dealt with Emergency Rainfall (0.46%), Ocean Acidification (0.46%) and Land Mass
Alteration (0.46%). Most of the articles were coded under others due to the fact that they did not cover
a specific environmental issue and discussed climate change in general. Online news on global warming,
disasters, sea-level change and drought were in significant numbers, as these impacts were often felt
and experience by Filipinos. The geography and the vulnerability of the Philippines to the effects of
climatic variability had placed climate science in a very serious position. This was reaffirmed by the
country’s susceptibility to frequent storms and tropical cyclones, disasters, heatwaves and flooding that
were considered to be climate-induced (Climate Reality Project, 2016). Jurnal Studi Komunikasi, 3(1),
2019 ISSN: 2549-7294 (Print), 2549-7626 (Online) 11 Filipinos’ climatic experiences had mainstreamed
climate change as a discursive topic and an environmental issue increasingly covered and reported by
media in the recent years. People used global warming in reference to climate change though they have
distinct meanings, but it is often that these terms were used interchangeably to denote each other.
While the term is popular among Filipinos as a direct connotation to climatic science, this impact caused
warmer earth’s temperature and is frequently experienced by Filipinos especially during summer
months when the temperature is higher compared to its usual level. In addition, the Philippines seemed
to be a dwelling place for natural and climateinduced disasters. This can be attested as the country had
experienced four out of the 10 most devastating storms in the past decade (Worland, 2015).
Furthermore, the country is highly susceptible to extreme weather conditions, frequent occurrences of
El Niño and La Niña and enormously fatal and damaging typhoons, thunderstorms, flash floods
(Greenpeace, 2005) and landslides.

Though Philippine media’s coverage of climate change is increasing, it does not justify the knowledge,
attitude and awareness of Filipinos on the issue. Moreover, it presented a dichotomy as the country is
one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change but with low frequency of media coverage. The
impacts of climate change were evident and noticeable in the country, but Philippine media placed too
little attention which prevents the mainstreaming of the issue to promote awareness and generate
possible solutions. Solution being proposed;

Table 4. Frequency of Climate Change Solutions across Philippine Newspapers Proposed Climate Change
Solutions Frequency
 Climate change was not just covered in the online news media as an environmental problem, but
certain articles discussed it by offering Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of
Philippine Online News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 12 solutions to combat
its fatal and destructive impacts. Majority of the climatic news (265) were coded under Others (129 for
Philippine Star, 83 for Manila Bulletin and 53 for Philippine Daily Inquirer), followed by Mitigation with
53 (Philippine Daily Inquirer topped with 25 followed by Philippine Star with 18 and Manila Bulletin with
10 online news) and Renewable Energy in 31 climate change online news (15 under Philippine Daily
Inquirer, 10 for Philippine Star and Manila Bulletin with 6). Eighteen (4.14%) articles proposed Risk
Reduction as a resolution to climate change while 13 articles or 2.98% out of the 435 articles had
discussed green agriculture. And 12 online news offered Energy Saving (4 or 0.92%), Reforestation (4 or
0.92%) and Reduction of Pollution (4 or 0.92%) as resolutions. Surprisingly, 43 (9.90%) climate articles
did not propose any solution to lessen the impacts of climate change. The data is in dissonance with the
findings of Ahchong and Dodds (2011), where mitigation and adaptation deemed to be the most
preferable solution to climate change.

Most of the articles are offering other solutions to combat climate change. Paris Climate Agreement was
deemed mostly as the intervention that will impede the effects of climate change to the environment,
society and humanity; with the goal of lowering down carbon emission and reduction on the usage of
greenhouse gasses.

Additionally, the Paris Accord is a direct response to the increasing effects and impacts of climate
change. This too, as former US President Barack Obama in 2016 puts it, “… this agreement will help
delay or avoid some of the consequences of climate change” (Rice, 2016). Aside from the climate
agreement, mitigation was also deemed to be a resolution in reducing the effects of climate change. As
UNESCO (2013) suggested in its guidebook for African journalists that adaptation and mitigation are two
of the most popular strategies in combatting climate change. Mitigation dealt with “any activities to
reduce the overall concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This includes efforts to switch
from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, or to improve energy efficiency. In
also includes efforts to plant trees and protect forests, or to farm land in ways that prevent greenhouse
gases from entering the atmosphere

Print media had mainstreamed the Paris Climate Agreement as the perfect solution to the increasing
impacts of climate change. Paris Accord brought actions among United Nations’ member countries
ratification of the said agreement, as it is deemed to be the most comprehensive climate agreement,
bringing all nations of the world towards a common cause of battling climate change through adaptation
and mitigation. The agreement also pursued its efforts to put a limit on the temperature increase to
1.5°, empowered countries to be resilient to the effects of climate change through financial and
technological frameworks (UNFCCC, 2016).

Jurnal Studi Komunikasi, 3(1), 2019 ISSN: 2549-7294 (Print), 2549-7626 (Online) 13 Scope of the Issue;
Table 5. Frequency of the Scope of Issue on Climate Change as Covered by Philippine Newspapers Scope
of the Issue Frequency

Generally, most of the climatic online articles were confined in the National setting (294 or 67.6%), 124
(28.51%) dealt with climate change concerning International/Global countries, then 13 articles or 2.99%
discussed it in the Provincial level. Surprisingly, climate change was occasionally discussed in Local
Community (3 or 0.7%) and Regional (1 or 0.2%) settings. The predominance of domestic news focusing
at the national level had resonated the idea of Spears (2005) pointing out that persuasive stories on
specific localized occurrences were deemed to be more appealing and influence public to engage and
act on issues of climate change. The data too, reflected similar findings of Ahchong and Dodds (2011)
study where news articles often in national and international or global scopes. Scope of the Solution;
Table 6. Frequency of the Scope of Solution on Climate Change Coverage Across Philippine Newspapers
Scope of the Solution Frequency

(Similarly, with the scope of climate change issues, the extent of climate change solutions mostly
centred on the national level (282 or 64.83%), followed by resolutions dealing with International/Global
countries with 97 online news or 22.29% while solutions that will benefit Environmental Realities:
Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of Philippine Online News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc
Agon Pacoma 14 the Provincial settings were discussed in 20 articles or 4.60%. Regionalbased proposals
to resolve climate change were covered in 20 climatic news or 4.60% while Local Community-based
resolutions were discussed in 10 online news or 2.30%. Unpredictably, a couple of online news (13 or
2.99%) did not in any way offered a climate change resolution. Though the Paris Accord rose to
popularity as the “might-bethe-right” intervention against climate change, most of the solutions
proposed by the online news articles were of national significance. Specifically, discussing mitigation,
adaptation and Philippines ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement and the benefits the country will
gain from such legislative action. Situating the scope of climatic solution at the national level potentially
conveys the feeling of belongingness and urgency. Furthermore, offering national solutions to combat
climate change, in anyway mobilise people to be in attention with the issue and preparation for action.
As Ford and King (2015) deliberated that media played a key role in providing a platform for public
discourses and rhetoric on solutions to end climate change. In this context, the Philippine media
situating climatic solutions at the national scope strengthens public’s engagement as possible solutions
were normally publicly “created, debated and bounded. There was be a relative difference on the extent
of presentation and depiction of climate change among the various online newspapers in terms of the
issue presented, solution proposed, scope of issue and scope of solution. This is reflective of the
Research Hypothesis 3.

The Framing of Climate Change Coverage in Philippine Online Media Table 7. Frequency of Framing
Approach across Philippine Newspapers Framing Approach Frequency
 Generally, most of the articles were framed positively (331 or 76.09%) followed by negatively-covered
climatic news (84 or 19.31%) while 20 online news or 4.6% were discussed in neutral frames. The results
showed how Philippine media framed climate change as a global environmental issue as most of the
online articles with considerably positive impressions. This is in dissonance with the study of Dahinden
(2002) where media’s coverage of biotechnology was neither purely positive nor purely negative as
most of some them were on a certain point of ambivalence or uncertainty. The current study also
Moreover, the findings of the current study discorded the results of a study on US newspapers’ framing
of fossil fuel and climate change, where the Jurnal Studi Komunikasi, 3(1), 2019 ISSN: 2549-7294 (Print),
2549-7626 (Online) 15 predominant newspaper articles were framed neutral tones. With the presence
of both positive and negative frames, discussion of an issue particularly of the environment and climate
change bounded on a neutral ground, where uncertainty occurs and affect the salience of an issue
(Rogala, 2011).

The results of the study reaffirmed the Research Hypothesis 4, as positivity will be the overall tone of
online climatic news. The dominance of positive framing among online articles on climate change
represented Philippine media’s pulse towards this global environmental issue and reflected the idea that
Filipinos are individuals who love positivity, believing that good vibrations or vibes ease out any
situations, may it be a good or bad ones. This too constituted why the Philippines remained to be the
most emotional country in Asia (Opiniano, 2017). Moreover, the fondness of Filipinos to positive things
may just be the reason behind media’s positive rally on issues concerning the whole nation, as positivity
yields more positive effects to Filipinos. As Gunster (2010) suggested that alternative and independent
media often frame climate change in a way that promotes political efficacy, offering a “a much more
diverse and optimistic vision of climate politics as a place in which broad civic engagement on climate
change can challenge and overcome institutional inertia as well as model democratic and participatory
approaches to the development of climate policy.” As Dotson (2009) suggested that “positive valence
was defined as an overall focus on solutions, action taken, resolutions passed, or progress toward
change.”

Various Coverage Frames Used in Climate Change Coverage

Generally, environmental frame emerged as the highly employed coverage frame with 194 online news
or 44.6% followed by 116 (26.7%) politically-framed climatic stories, then 67 articles or 15.40% were
slanted economically while scientific frame was used in 22 articles or 5.06%. There were also frames that
were rarely used: educational (8 news or 1.84%) and cultural (5 stories or 1.15%). On the contrary,
Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of Philippine Online News Media - doi:
10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 16 some climatic articles employed other frames (22 or
5.06%) that are related to entertainment, agriculture, legislation and health.

Majority of the online news were published in 2016, which is in time with the Philippine presidential
election, where climate change has been a criterion in political debates involving presidential level.
Through these public discourses, political candidates’ knowledge, perceptions and environmental
agenda were presented before viewer-voters and allowed them to gauge on a candidate’s stand, notion
and action towards environment and climate science. Furthermore, coverage of environmental and
climatic problems during the election period had increased issues’ salience, which make them
perceptible, consequential and retentive among viewer-voters. The data resonated the findings of Faisal
& Zanat (2014) on their research about newspaper coverage of the UN conferences on climate change in
Bangladesh, where environmental and political frames emerged as the dominant coverage frames of the
national dailies. This articulated the idea that environmental issues such as climate change, global
warming and climate-induced disasters has been recognized by the Philippine society and more often
amalgamated with politics, political rhetoric and policymaking.

The result too was almost in lined with the findings of Tillinghast and McCann (2013) where political-
economic, ecological or meteorological and scientific framing were the dominant frames used by news
magazines. The only difference was that their study had higher frequency in terms of scientifically-coded
online news articles than the current study’s inclination to economically-framed online stories. The data
indicated parallelism of the Research Hypothesis 5, as politics, economics and the environment would
be the dominant coverage frames used by media in covering the issue of climate change.

Section of the Newspaper Most Inclined in Covering Climate Change Issues

Summing it up, news section was the section of online news portal to frequently cover climate change
on its daily issues with 237 or 54.49%, followed by secondary (Others) sections with 86 or 19.77%, and
the business section with 69 or 15.86%. Editorial and feature sections had the least inclination to cover
climate change with 35 or 8.04% and 8 or 1.84% respectively. This result supported Research Hypothesis
6, as predominant climatic articles and stories thrived in the news section of various online news portals.
The results indicated a similar result of a comparative study on media coverage of climate change in
Chile by Dotson et al (2012), where news articles emerged as the predominant story type that cover and
report climatic science.

Types of Articles and Visuals Inclined to Report/Depict Climate Change

In general, news articles covered climate change in a wider scale of 269 out of the 435 samples of this
study or 61.84%. This was followed by wired digital contents with 98 or 22.53%, opinion/editorial with
36 climatic coverage, feature in 30 articles or 6.9% and literary and others with equally having 1 digital
content. The results revealed that Philippine print media predominantly used news articles in reporting
climate change. This reaffirmed the findings of Esser and Umbricht (2014) on their study of the press
and media systems that the US media is inclined in using news format with emphasis on detached point
of view, accurate facts and verifiable attributions. Furthermore, Corbett and Durfee (2004) suggested
that hard news is event-driven, placing news stories and articles in scientific context. This constituted
the Research Hypothesis 7 that news stories were most likely to cover climate change.

Generally, wired photos were highly used by online news media to depict climate change with 156 or
35.86%, followed by framed photos with 121 out of the 435 or 27.81% then no pictures in 110 instances
or (25.29%). Other types of images were seldom used: stand-alone photos (14 or 3.22%), graph/map (10
or 2.30%), editorial cartoon (9 or 2.07%). Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage
of Philippine Online News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 18

Majority of the climatic imageries analysed on this study depicted government and political figures.
International and local political messengers and actors were frequently featured in photos or pictures
supporting climate change articles. Specifically, former UN SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki-Moon and former
US President Barack Obama were the frequent international governmental and political figures
accompanying climate change articles. In the Philippine setting, President Duterte and Senator Loren
Legarda had a fair share of popularity as domestic coverage of climate change were frequently
published with their photos as a supplement to climatic news stories. The dominance of government
and political figures constituted the idea of (1) importance of politics in mainstreaming climate change,
(2) the key roles they hold in climate change discourses, actions and policy-making.

Visual images and representations allowed the public for greater understanding of climate change issue,
and in turn engaged them on various climatic discourses and rhetoric leading to the shaping of the
cultural politics of climate science (O’Neill & Smith, 2014). It played a key role in positioning conceptions
of climate change (Smith & Joffe, 2009). With two-thirds of the total number of articles coded have
pictures or photos showed print news media’s technique to draw audience attention and information
retention. The results reinforced the many qualities of visual imagery in emotional portrayals (Joffe,
2008), accompanying and highlighting information (Graber, 1990), decoding and sharing social and
cultural meanings (O’Neill & Smith, 2014) and even rescind semantic and geographical challenges (Popp
& Mendelson, 2010). Moreover, the results supported Research Hypothesis 7, as majority of the photos
depicting or representing climate science were framed-type photos.
Majority of the climatic imageries analysed on this study depicted government and political figures.
International and local political messengers and actors were frequently featured in photos or pictures
supporting climate change articles. Specifically, former UN SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki-Moon and former
US President Barack Obama were the frequent international governmental and political figures
accompanying climate change articles. In the Philippine setting, President Duterte and Senator Loren
Legarda had a fair share of popularity as domestic coverage of climate change were frequently
published with their photos as a supplement to climatic news stories. The dominance of government
and political figures constituted the idea of (1) importance of politics in mainstreaming climate change,
(2) the key roles they hold in climate change discourses, actions and policy-making. Visual images and
representations allowed the public for greater understanding of climate change issue, and in turn
engaged them on various climatic discourses and rhetoric leading to the shaping of the cultural politics
of climate science (O’Neill & Smith, 2014). It played a key role in positioning conceptions of climate
change (Smith & Joffe, 2009). With two-thirds of the total number of articles coded have pictures or
photos showed print news media’s technique to draw audience attention and information retention.
The results reinforced the many qualities of visual imagery in emotional portrayals (Joffe, 2008),
accompanying and highlighting information (Graber, 1990), decoding and sharing social and cultural
meanings (O’Neill & Smith, 2014) and even rescind semantic and geographical challenges (Popp &
Mendelson, 2010). Moreover, the results supported Research Hypothesis 7, as majority of the photos
depicting or representing climate science were framed-type photos. With the data collected through the
coding process, it could be said that most of the photos were images of people, hence, personification
of climate change was done through the significant presence of humans such as the numerous domestic
or global political figures and governmental actors, business personalities and scientific messengers of
information. These images facilitated attraction, attention and retention, supporting the idea of Smith
and Joffe (2009) that personification of climate change evokes emotional tone among readers or
viewers of the climatic images and facilitates emotional reaction. The presence of human images had
assisted public understanding climate science and in any way influence and affect public engagement on
climate change issue. Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Coverage of Philippine Online
News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 20 Types of News and Graphic Sources
Being Employed in Covering Climate Change Table 12. Frequency of Information Sources on Climate
Change Across Philippine Newspapers Sources of Information Frequency (f) % Local Media 3 0.69%
International Media 1 0.23% Government 285 65.52% Academic 10 2.30% Non-Government
Organization 29 6.67% Business 48 11.03% Science Organization 10 2.30% Others 32 7.36% None 17
3.90% n = 435 100% Like framing approach and coverage frame, the source of climatic information
contributes to the salience of climate change issue. Generally, people from the Government were
attributed for climatic information with 285 or 65.52%, followed by the Business sector with 48 or
11.03%, the by Others in 32 online news or (7.36%) while NonGovernment Organization were quoted 29
times or 6.67%. Though discussions of climatic science were popularized by Science Organization and
the Academic, they did not fair well to be the messengers of climatic science equally getting 10 articles
or 2.30% under their anchorage. Local Media and International Media seemed not to be reliable when it
comes to climate change, with 3 (0.69%) and 1 (0.23%) quotations respectively. Unpredictable, there
were 17 articles with no source of information either because they were opinions or commentaries of
editors on the issue of climate change. Messengers of climatic information perform relatively significant
functions in advancing climate change, particularly in creating visualizations, evoking and placing value
and increasing the public’s awareness on the issue (O’Neill & Smith, 2014). The current study had a
considerable amount of government attributions which resonated the findings of Xie (2009) in a
comparative analysis of climate change coverage between newspapers and blogs where government
actors and political messengers were deemed to be the most attributed entity on the issue of climate
change. And this is true among the three leading Philippine online news media, as government remain
to be the top source of climatic information. The study reinforced the results of previous studies
(Ahchong, 2011; Kumpu, 2013) where political figure represented the dominant Jurnal Studi Komunikasi,
3(1), 2019 ISSN: 2549-7294 (Print), 2549-7626 (Online) 21 number as the messengers of climate
information. Governmental sources in the national level were predominant over those in the regional
level. Moreover, the frequency of government actors was considerably higher compared to other
sources of information. This showed a relationship between climate change and politics, and situating it
in the Philippine context, government sources often shape public discourses and opinions on climatic
variability. Furthermore, the presence of government sources on climatic media coverage resounded the
idea of how significant their role in resolving climate change. Additionally, since the research study dealt
with climatic imageries, it resonated similar findings on the study of O’Neill (2013) that images and
representations of climate change depict identifiable subjects, predominantly government officials and
politicians. Hence, the results in this category is reflective of Research Hypothesis 8, as higher frequency
of governmental

CONCLUSION

Climate Change is becoming a relevant topic with an increasing media coverage and reportage. It has
become a popular discursive topic in the Philippines and no longer bounded in the premises of the
academe and sciences. It transcended its path towards research and journalism. This can be attributed
to climate change experiences of humans such as global warming, flooding and climate-induced
disasters among others. Climate change had become a serious global environmental issue and its
popularity can be credited to various political, economic, and environmental attributes. Hence, media is
in a significant role of mainstreaming this issue to promote public awareness and action. Severity of
climate science had motivated people such as journalists and other climate agents and actors to have a
fair share of the issue, various resolutions were designed to ease the impacts, threats and effects of
climate change. Thus, media as one of the key players of climate change cover this issue by highlighting
solution as they shape, influence and contribute to public discourses, policies and actions.

Media had covered climate science in a general manner as this term is interchangeably used to denote
its impacts such as global warming, El Niño and La Niña among others. Though generality dominated
discussions of climate change by the media, specificity comes in the form of solutions like the Paris
Climate Agreement, mitigation and adaptation measures, consequently, providing ambivalence and
cynicism in media coverage of climatic change. Therefore, this presents Philippine media less inclination
to cover climate change issue and provided reasons for such behavior as: little knowledge and skills on
covering and reporting science, climate change and the environment, inadequate climaterelated
seminars and trainings and the diminutive attention media Environmental Realities: Evaluating Climate
Change Coverage of Philippine Online News Media - doi: 10.25139/jsk.3i1.1293 Marc Agon Pacoma 22
institutions put on themes that they think are less important or not news worthy.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Heartfelt thanks are extended to Dr. Nuna E. Almanzor, Executive Director of the Centre for Research
and Development and Dr. Catherine Q. Castañeda, Vice President for Academic Affairs for supporting
me in this research endeavour. Sincerest gratitude too is being extended to the Impacts World, for
allowing the author to present this study in the during 2017 Conference in Potsdam, Germany. Thank
you also to Michael Wulf, Neliza Casela, Joel Zaporteza, Imelda Lozano, Jean Belarmino, Jeseca
Cabangisan and Rushiel Miralles for extending their help and expertise on this research project. And to
God for continuously motivating me to chase my passion and dreams.

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Engineering
April 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2007.10.011

Earthquake damage estimation in Metro Manila, Philippines based on seismic performance of buildings
evaluated by local experts’ judgments Hiroyuki Miuraa,, Saburoh Midorikawab , Kazuo Fujimotoc ,
Benito M. Pachecod , Hiroaki Yamanakae a Center for Urban Earthquake Engineering, Tokyo Institute of
Technology, G3-3, 4259 Nagatsuta, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8502, Japan b Department of Built
Environment, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Japan c Department of Risk and Crisis
Management System, Chiba Institute of Science, Choshi, Japan d Vibrametrics Inc., Quezon, Philippines e
Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Japan

Abstract

Building damage due to a scenario earthquake in Metro Manila, Philippines is estimated based on
seismic performance of the buildings evaluated by local experts’ judgments. For the damage estimation,
building capacity curves and fragility curve are developed from questionnaire to the local experts of
structural engineering. The Delphi method is used to integrate the experts’ opinions. The derived
capacity curves are validated by comparing with the result of pushover analysis for typical buildings.
Building responses due to simulated ground motions are estimated by the capacity spectrum method.
Damage ratios are calculated from the fragility curves and the building responses. Distributions of the
damaged buildings are computed by multiplying the damage ratios and the building inventory. The
distribution and the amount of the damaged buildings in this study show significant difference from the
estimation with the capacity curves of HAZUS, suggesting the importance of evaluation of the region-
specific building performance. r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Building damage estimation; Seismic performance; Capacity spectrum method; Local experts;
Delphi method; Metro Manila.

1. Introduction Population growth and urban expansion in mega-cities increase vulnerability to

disasters in developing countries. In order to establish efficient earthquake disaster mitigation
planning, earthquake loss estimation is indispensable. In particular, building damage estimation
is important for loss estimation since the damaged buildings result in great economic loss and
casualties. In order to carry out building damage estimation, it is necessary to evaluate following
three points: (1) estimating the ground motions due to a scenario earthquake by modeling the
source and the underground structure in the area of interest, (2) evaluating the damage ratio
based on the seismic performance of the local buildings, and (3) computing the damage
distribution and the number of damaged buildings by multiplying the damage ratio by the
building inventory. Therefore, it is important to gather the data for underground structure,
vulnerability of buildings and building inventory. This study is mainly focused on the evaluation
of the building performance for the damage estimation in a developing country. One of the
standardized tools for earthquake loss estimation is HAZUS [1] developed in the US. In HAZUS,
the seismic performance of typical buildings in the US is given. The seismic performance of
buildings, however, should be region-specific because of the different design level and
construction quality in each region. Therefore, it is not appropriate to apply the building
performance in HAZUS to other regions. For developing countries, simple tools for loss
estimation have been proposed in RADIUS ARTICLE IN PRESS www.elsevier.com/locate/soildyn
0267-7261/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2007.10.011 Corresponding author. Tel.: +81 45 924 5602; fax: +81 45 924
5574. E-mail address: hmiura@enveng.titech.ac.jp (H. Miura). [2] and GESI [3]. The reliability of
the estimation by RADIUS or GESI, however, would not be high because the tools were
developed for highly simplified loss estimation. The Philippines is one of developing countries
located in a zone of high seismicity. Metro Manila, the capital of the Philippines, is a mega-city
that is highly populated in the urban areas. Building damage estimation due to scenario
earthquakes in Metro Manila has been conducted based on HAZUS [4], GESI [5], and
vulnerability functions constructed from observed damage data of the 1990 Luzon earthquake
[6]. The vulnerability functions, however, were developed only for low-rise buildings in the
Philippines. It is necessary to examine the seismic performance of mid-rise and high-rise
buildings for more reliable damage estimation in urban areas. The capacity spectrum method
(e.g., [7,8]) is a simplified procedure estimate non-linear building response from the capacity of
a building and the demand of ground motion on the building. In the method, the seismic
performance of buildings can be incorporated rationally. For obtaining the capacity of the
buildings, it is a valid way to integrate experts’ judgments when the available experimental and
actual damage data to evaluate the building performance is limited. In this study, questionnaire
for local experts of structural engineering in Metro Manila is applied to develop seismic capacity
curves of the buildings for more reliable building damage estimation. The derived capacity
curves are validated by comparing with result of pushover analysis for typical buildings. Building
damage due to a scenario earthquake is computed by multiplying damage ratio estimated from
the capacity curve and simulated ground motion by building inventory. The estimated damage
distribution is compared with that by the capacity curves of HAZUS to examine the effects of the
region-specific building performance on the damage estimation. 2. Earthquake environment in
Metro Manila, Philippines Metro Manila consists of seventeen cities and municipalities including
Manila, Makati, Quezon and Marikina. Fig. 1 shows the location of Metro Manila and the urban
sprawl [9]. In around 1950 the urbanized area was less than 100 km2 with a population of 1.6
million, but now is expanded to more than 600 km2 with a population of 10 million. In the old
areas in Metro Manila such as Manila city, densely built-up area with low-rise and mid-rise
buildings has been developed. In the newly developed commercial zones such as Makati and
Marikina, many high-rise buildings have been constructed. According with the sprawl of the
urbanized area, new commercial zones have been expanded. Fig. 2 shows the geomorphological
classification map of Metro Manila [10]. The area is divided broadly into three parts: Central
plateau, Coastal lowland and Marikina valley. The central plateau is on stiff soils with an
elevation of 15–30 m. The coastal lowland extending along the Manila bay is on soft sand and
clay deposits with a thickness of several to 40 m. The Marikina valley is bounded by the central
plateau and the Sierra Madre range, and consists of a delta and a muddy flood plain. The
thickness of the surface soft deposits reaches 50 m at a maximum. Since the Luzon Island
including Metro Manila is located between the Eurasian Plate to the west and the Philippine Sea
Plate to the east, the seismic and volcanic activities are high. After the Spanish Empire colonized
the Philippines in the 15th century, description or accounts of earthquakes have been
maintained in various letters and chronicles. The historical earthquake data in Metro Manila, as
 well as the instrumentally derived earthquake data gathered in the 20th century, have been
compiled in ARTICLE IN PRESS : - 1948 : - 1966 : - 1975 : - 1996 Developing Period Fig. 1. Location
of Metro Manila with urban sprawl after Doi and Kim [9]. : Coastal Lowland : Marikina Valley :
Central Plateau : Mountain Geomorphological Unit Sierra Madre Range Laguna de Bay Manila
Bay 0 Makati Manila 10 km

2. Fig. 2. Geomorphological classification map and active faults in Metro Manila after Matsuda et
al. [10]. H. Miura et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 28 (2008) 764–777 765 the
previous study [11]. According to the earthquake data, seismic intensity more than VII in
Modified Rossi-Forel intensity scale have been recorded for 28 times during recent 400 years. As
an example of the recent earthquakes, in the Luzon earthquake of July 16, 1990 (M7.8),
Intensity VII was recorded and minor building damage was caused in Metro Manila. The average
return period for a destructive earthquake (Intensity VIII) was roughly estimated at about 80
years [11]. In the Metro Manila area, there are two major active faults.
 One is the West valley fault located between the central plateau and the Marikina valley, and
another is the East valley fault situated between the Marikina valley and the Sierra Madre range.
Trench-excavation survey at the northern end of the West valley fault suggests the recurrence
of hundreds rather than thousands of years [12]. Besides, these faults have high potential to
produce a damaging earthquake with magnitude of 6–7 [12]. Disaster mitigation planning to the
earthquakes triggered by these faults seems as urgent issue for Metro Manila.
3. Flow of building damage estimation
Overview
Fig. 3 shows the flowchart of the building damage estimation adopted in this study. After setting
parameters for a fault model of a scenario earthquake in Metro Manila, ground motions at
surface are computed using hybrid simulation technique [13,14] and soil response analysis [15]
based on underground structure model. Building response due to the ground motion is
evaluated by the capacity spectrum method. First, the buildings existing in Metro Manila are
classified into several categories.
 Capacity curve for each category is developed by integrating the experts’ opinions. The non-
linear response of the building is estimated from the capacity curve and demand curve
converted from the ground motion spectrum. Damage state for each building category is
determined by the building response and fragility curves. Finally, combining the damage state of
each building category and building inventory data, the distribution of the building damage is
computed. 3.2. Ground motion estimation The West valley fault is selected as the source of a
scenario earthquake because the fault is closer to the central part of Metro Manila. The ground
motions due to the West valley fault are simulated using the fault model and the underground
structure model.
Fig. 4(a) and (b) shows the fault model and major fault parameters used in the simulation. After
determining the fault length from the geomorphology in and around the fault, the other fault
parameters such as the fault width, the seismic moment, the area of asperities and the average
slip are estimated based on the recipe for predicting strong ground motions [16].
The fault length and the moment magnitude of the earthquake are set as 40 km and Mw 6.7,
respectively. Two asperities are located in the fault and the rupture starts from northern bottom
of the fault. The underground structure model with a 500 m mesh system is constructed from
the about 400 boring data, the geomorphological classification map [10] and the geophysical
explorations [17]. The ground motions on the engineering bedrock with the shear-wave velocity
of about 400 m/s are computed by the hybrid simulation technique [13,14]. The simulation
technique consists of the stochastic green function for ground motion with short period (less
than 1 s) and the 3-D finite difference method for ground motion with long period (more than 1
s). The ground motions at the surface are computed by the soil response analysis with the
SHAKE program [15]. The surface soils in Metro Manila are broadly classified into three types:
clay, sand and gravel. The dynamic soil properties proposed in the previous study [18] are
applied in the computation.
 Fig. 5 illustrates the relationships between the shear modulus ratio, damping factor and shear
strain for each soil type used in the analysis. Fig. 4(c) shows the computed peak ground velocity
(vectorial summation of two horizontal motions) on the surface. Fig. 6 indicates 5%-damped
velocity response spectrum and demand curves at Ermita and Quezon computed from the
simulated ground motions. The demand curve is defined by the relationship between the
spectral response displacement and the response acceleration. The maximum velocity response
at Ermita reaches almost 5 m/s, while the response at Quezon is less than 1 m/ s. This is because
that the ground motion at Ermita is strongly amplified due to the thick soft soil deposits in the
coastal lowland area. ARTICLE IN PRESS Distribution and Amount of Building Damage Estimation
of Damage Ratio Capacity Spectrum Method Computation of Surface Ground Motion Hybrid
Simulation and Soil Response Analysis Scenario Earthquake Capacity Curves Fragility Curves
Building Inventory Fig. 3. Flow of building damage estimation. 766 H. Miura et al. / Soil Dynamics
and Earthquake Engineering 28 (2008) 764–777 3.3. Building inventory In Metro Manila, there
had been the building inventory data digitized from 1/10,000 scale topographic maps edited in
1989 [19]. The authors have updated the inventory data using the satellite remote sensing data
[20]. In the inventory data, the attribute for number of stories, which mainly controls the
vibration period during ground shaking, is included for each building. The inventory for the mid-
rise and high-rise buildings was updated using the highresolution satellite IKONOS images. The
dotted squares in
Fig. 7 indicate the coverage of the images that cover about 75% of Metro Manila including the
major commercial areas such as Manila, Makati, Quezon and Marikina. The locations of the
newly constructed buildings were extracted from the difference between the IKONOS images
and the existing inventory data. The number of stories was estimated for each building using the
shadow lengths of the buildings obliquely observed from the satellite. The inventory for the low-
rise buildings was updated from the land cover classification map derived from the
multitemporal Landsat images [21]. The detail of the analysis for the updating is described in the
authors’ previous study [20]. Fig. 7 shows the updated building distribution with a 500 m mesh
system. The total number of buildings in the updated inventory was estimated at about 1.29
million. According to the recent national census in 2000 [6], the total number of buildings in
Metro Manila is approximately 1.32 million. The updated number of the buildings shows good
agreement with the census data. Due to the updating, the number of buildings is increased by
about 40% over the 15-year period. As shown in Fig. 7, the buildings are densely concentrated in
the western coastal area such as Manila. A lot of the buildings are distributed also in the
northern, southern and eastern areas with the expansion of the urbanized areas as shown in Fig.

Areas of asperities and backgrounds, respectively. (b) Fault parameters. (c) Distribution of peak
ground velocity due to the scenario earthquake. 0.5 0 10−6 10−5 10−4 10−3 10−2 1 Shear
modulus ratio, G/G0 0.2 0.4 0 Damping factor, h Shear Strain, γ G/G0 h Clay Sand Gravel Clay
Sand Gravel Fig. 5. Relationships between shear modulus ratio, damping factor and shear strain
proposed by Imazu and Fukutake [18]. H. Miura et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake
Engineering 28 (2008) 764–777 767 In order for rational building damage estimation, not only
the number of stories but also the structural type and the design vintage for each building are
indispensable. Only the footprints and the number stories, however, are assigned in the
inventory data. The estimation of structural type and design vintage for each building is
discussed in Section 5.1.
4. Evaluation of seismic performance of buildings 4.1. Classification of buildings In the capacity
spectrum method, building response during ground shaking is estimated from an intersection of
building capacity curve and demand curve. The capacity curve needs to be obtained for each
building type. First, buildings in Metro Manila are classified considering the structural type, the
number of stories and the design vintage as shown in Table 1. The structural types are classified
into three major categories: CHB (Concrete hollow block building), C1 (Reinforced-concrete
moment frame building) and C2 (Reinforced-concrete shear wall building). CHB buildings

Coverage of IKONOS images 1,000 500 300 100 1 No. of buildings 0 10 km – – – – – 999 499 299
99 Fig. 7. Building distribution of inventory data updated by Miura and Midorikawa [20]. 768 H.
Miura et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 28 (2008) 764–777 are typically single-
family or small, multiple-family dwellings that are usually not engineered. Seismic resistance of
these buildings depends on mostly on CHB walls, which are usually provided with lintel beams
and vertical stiffeners at an average spacing of a few meters. C1 buildings have a frame of
reinforced-concrete columns and beams. Lateral loads of these buildings are resisted by
beamcolumn frame action. C2 buildings are mostly tall buildings having concrete shear walls
that are usually bearing walls as vertical components of the lateral-force-resisting system. Other
structural types, such as wooden buildings, bamboo buildings and steel buildings, are existed in
Metro Manila. According to the questionnaire to the building officials and the local government
engineers in Metro Manila [22], the percentages of other structural types in the
city/municipality were estimated at approximately 20%. Since the number of other structural
types is limited, all the buildings are classified into the three major building types (CHB, C1 and
C2) in this study. The range of stories is classified into six categories: lowrise buildings (1–3
story), mid-rise building (4–7 story) and high-rise buildings (8–15, 16–25, 26–35, 36+ story). The
national structural code of the Philippines (NSCP) was firstly established in 1972 [23]. The code
has been revised in 1981, 1986, 1992 and 2001 [24–27]. Generally, design base shear
Coefficients increased in NSCP1981 from NSCP1972, then decreased in NSCP1986. As a result of
the lessons learned from the 1990 Luzon earthquake, significant changes in special
requirements for earthquake resistant design of RC buildings were formally incorporated in
NSCP1992. The design base shear coefficients increased in NSCP2001 for all the building types,
especially for buildings located near the fault. The increase of design base shear in NSCP 2001
was mainly motivated by observations in the 1994 Northridge earthquake and the 1995 Kobe
earthquake. Considering the period for the revision of the building code, the design vintages of
the buildings are classified into three categories: Sub-type 1 (built after 1992), Sub-type 2 (built
between 1972 and 1991) and Sub-type 3 (built before 1971). 4.2. Building capacity curves
derived from experts’ judgments To construct the capacity curve of each building category, the
two-round questionnaire is applied to the experts of structural engineering comprised of the
professors and the local engineers in Metro Manila [28]. The responses of the experts are
integrated by the Delphi method (e.g., [29]). The Delphi method is based on a structured
process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of
questionnaires interspersed with opinion feedback. The method has been also utilized to obtain
estimates of the damage due to earthquakes in ATC-13 [30]. In the first round of the
questionnaire, 22 experts participated. In the second round, 21 experts joined the survey. Five
engineers who participated in the first round were not able to join the second round because of
their urgent obligations, and four engineers are added in the second round survey. A total of 26
experts participate the questionnaire. The questionnaire documents with instruction and
explanatory notes for seismic capacity of buildings are distributed to the experts by mail in both
round surveys. The responses of the experts are gathered also by mail. To make parameters
queried in the surveys more relevant, a follow-up workshop among the experts is organized
after the second round questionnaire. The capacity curve consists of spectral displacement and
acceleration at yield- and ultimate-capacity points. The questionnaires are mainly composed of
the questions for six parameters: anticipated natural vibration period of each building type,
seismic mass of building, design strength, strength at yield and ultimate point, and ductility.
Selfrated experience/knowledge level (Ei) and certainty level (Ci) of each respondent (i) are also
asked in the questionnaires. As with the ATC-13 study, the responses are processed by
computing a weighting factor, ECi factor, defined as the following equation: ECi ¼ E4 i Ci Pn i¼1
E4 i Ci . (1) Here, n in the equation indicates the number of the respondents. Higher EC indicates
higher self-evaluation of the response.

Fig. 8 illustrates an example of the results in the first round and the second round surveys. The
horizontal axes represent EC and the vertical axes represent l the ratio of the ultimate strength
to the yield strength for C1L Sub-type 1 building. Solid point indicates the response of each
respondent. Solid line and dotted lines show the average of the responses and its standard
deviation, respectively. As shown in the first round survey in
Fig. 8(a), difference of experience and certainty level between the respondents is not significant
since all the EC factors show smaller than 0.15. In the second round survey shown in Fig. 8(b),
ARTICLE IN PRESS Table 1 Classification of buildings in Metro Manila Structural types Stories
Design vintage CHB Concrete hollow block 1–3 Sub-type 1, 2, 3 C1L Concrete moment frame 1–3
Sub-type 1, 2, 3 C1M 4–7 Sub-type 1, 2, 3 C1H 8–15 Sub-type 1, 2, 3 C2H Concrete shear wall 8–
15 Sub-type 1, 2, 3 C2V 16–25 Sub-type 1, 2 C2E 26–35 Sub-type 1, 2 C2S 36 Sub-type 1 Sub-type
1: Constructed after 1992. Sub-type 2: Constructed between 1972 and 1991. Sub-type 3:
Constructed before 1971. H. Miura et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 28 (2008)
764–777 769 however, EC factors of some respondents show higher than 0.15. It indicates that
the number of respondents who evaluate their certainty level in the second round higher than
in the first round is increased. Besides, the standard deviation in the second round is declined to
about 0.3 while that in the first round is about 0.5. It means that the responses for the
parameter are converged with approximately 1.5 by the opinion feedback. Similar convergence
is also observed in other parameters. The spectral values at the yield and ultimate points for
each building category are determined from the median values of the responses in the second
round survey., (2) where P[ds|Sd] is the probability of a particular damage state, ds (slight,
moderate, extensive and complete), at the given spectral displacement, Sd. S¯ d;ds and bc are
the median value and its standard deviation of spectral displacement at which the building
reaches the damage state. F is the standard normal cumulative distribution function. Here, S¯
d;ds is expressed as multiplication of drift ratio and building height. Since the drift ratio at a
damage state of buildings in Metro Manila is poorly examined, the drift ratio of the nearest
building type in HAZUS is used in this study considering the structural type, building height and
design level [31]. bc is expressed as square root of sum of squares of the standard deviations
derived from all the answers in the second round survey. Fig. 9 illustrates the constructed
fragility curves of the low-rise building (CHB and C1L), the mid-rise building (C1M) and the high-
rise building (C1H).
able 2 also shows the displacements at the damage states and bc for all the building categories.
4.3. Comparison with pushover analysis In order to validate the capacities derived from the
Delphi method, they are compared with result of the pushover analysis [32] for typical buildings
in Metro Manila. Analytical values for the capacity of a structure can be obtained from the
pushover analysis. The pushover analysis is applied to two-story RC building (C1L Subtype 1) and
10-story RC building (C1H Sub-type 3). Fig. 10 illustrates the frame geometry of the two-story
and 10-story building. The two-story and the 10-story buildings represent a typical school and
residential building, respectively. In the pushover analysis, the sizes and the reinforcements of
the members of the frame are determined based on the drawings of the buildings. The material
models such as shear-strain relationships for concrete and reinforcement steel are defined
basically based on the design practice in the Philippines [33,34]. The distributions of lateral
loading assumed in the analysis are based on fundamental mode shape of the frames.

The pushover analysis, and the capacity accelerations (strengths) are comparable or smaller.
Here, the capacity of C1L building by the Delphi method would represent standard
residential/commercial buildings because the number of residential/commercial low-rise
buildings is predominant in the urban area. As described before, the capacity by the pushover
analysis represents a typical school building. The difference between the seismic capacities is
caused because public buildings such as school generally would have higher potential to resist
for seismic loading than residential/commercial buildings. For the C1H building, on the contrary,
the capacity accelerations by the Delphi method are little higher than those by the pushover
analysis. Only the lateral load bearing elements such as columns and beams are modeled in the
pushover analysis. The actual high-rise building, however, is likely stronger than the result of this
analysis because non-structural elements such as partition walls provide additional strength in
actual high-rise building. It indicates that the capacity curves of actual building would
correspond better with the curves by the Delphi method. Although the number of the examined
cases is limited, the capacity curves derived by the Delphi method are consistent with those by
the pushover analysis. The capacity curves derived by the Delphi method are compared also
with result of static lateral loading experiment for existing buildings in Metro Manila [35].
According to the force–displacement curve obtained from the experiment for an existing two-
story CHB building, the displacements at the yield and ultimate points were approximately 0.004
and 0.006 m, respectively. As shown in Fig. 12 and Table 2, the displacements at the yield and
ultimate points of the CHB building are estimated at about 0.002 and 0.007–0.01 m,
respectively. The capacity of the CHB building derived from the Delphi method shows good
agreement with that of the actual building. 5. Building damage estimation 5.1. Selection of
structural type and design vintage The building damage due to the scenario earthquake is
estimated by using the derived capacity curves, the fragility curves, the simulated ground
motion and the building inventory data. The number of damaged buildings of the low-rise (CHB
and C1L), the mid-rise (C1M), and the highrise (C1H) buildings are computed by multiplying the
distribution of the damage ratio in each damage state by the building inventory data. The
structural types of both CHB and C1L are contained in the low-rise buildings in Metro Manila.
Besides, the strengths of the buildings vary in each design vintage. As described before, the
building population of the categories needs to be approximately estimated although ARTICLE IN
PRESS 2.5 m 7.0 m 4.45 m 3.2 m 22.8 m 3.8 m 3.8 m 7.6 m 4.0 m 3.0 m 31.0 m Fig. 11. Frame
geometry of 2-story and 10-story buildings for pushover analysis.

Fig. 12. Comparison of capacity curves derived from the push-over analysis and the Delphi
method. (a) C1L Building. (b) C1H Building. 772 H. Miura et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake
Engineering 28 (2008) 764–777 the structural type and the design vintage of each building are
not included in the inventory data. The building population in Metro Manila has been
investigated by the questionnaires for the building officials and the local government engineers
[22]. In the survey, the number of buildings for each building type in each city/ municipality was
approximately estimated by the building officials and engineers. Based on the survey, the
relationship between the percentages of CHB and C1L buildings in each city/municipality is
broadly classified into three categories as shown in Table 3. In the region A such as Caloocan,
Valenzuela and so on, the number of CHB is dominant compared with that of C1L. On the
contrary, the number of C1L is dominant in the region B such as Marikina, Makati. In the region
C, almost all the low-rise buildings consist of C1L

Based on the result of the survey, the ratios between the number of CHB and that of C1L in each
region are approximately estimated at 2:1, 1:2 or 0:3 as shown in the table. As shown in Fig. 1,
the urbanized areas had covered approximately 60% of Metro Manila by 1975 including major
residential and commercial zones. It indicates that Sub-type 3 design vintage is predominant for
the low-rise and mid-rise buildings. Therefore, Sub-type 3 is applied for CHB, C1L and C1M
buildings in the damage estimation. Since most of the high-rise buildings would be rather newer
than the low-rise and mid-rise buildings, the Sub-type 2 is adopted for C1H buildings in the
estimation. 5.2. Results of building damage estimation In order to examine effects of the region-
specific building performance, the damage estimation of this study is compared against that
with capacity curves of nearest building types in HAZUS. To compare with the damage of CHB
buildings, URML buildings in HAZUS is used because the structural type almost corresponds with
CHB. Low-code is adopted for URML, C1L and C1M buildings in HAZUS because Sub-type 3
buildings in Metro Manila would not be fully engineered. Moderate-code is applied to C1H
buildings in HAZUS since Sub-type 2 C1H buildings would have a certain level of resistance for
seismic loading.
Fig. 13 shows the comparison of the capacity curves derived from the Delphi method and the
curves of HAZUS used in the damage estimation. The yield and ultimate ARTICLE IN PRESS Table
3 Approximately estimated ratio of number of CHB buildings and that of C1L buildings in each
city/municipality Region City/municipality Ratio CHB C1L A Caloocan, Valenzuela, Quezon,
Navotas, San Juan, Mandaluyong, Manila, Pasig, Pasay, Pateros, Paranaque, Muntinlupa 2 1 B
Marikina, Makati, Taguig, Las Pinas 1 2 C Malabon 0 3 SA (m/s/s) SA (m/s/s) SD (m) SD (m) SD
(m) SD (m) 0 0.04 0.08 5 10 0 0.04 0.08 0 0.05 0.1 5 10 0 0.3 0.6 CHB (Sub-Type3) URML (Low-
code) C1M (Sub-Type3) C1M (Low-code) C1H (Sub-Type2) C1H (Moderate-code) C1L (Sub-
Type3) C1L (Low-code)
Fig. 13. Comparison of capacity curves by the Delphi method and HAZUS used in the damage
estimation. Low-rise, low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise. H. Miura et al. / Soil Dynamics and
Earthquake Engineering 28 (2008) 764–777 773 ARTICLE IN PRESS Fig. 14. Building distribution
and distribution of damaged buildings. (a) Building distribution. (b) Extensive or complete
damage (with capacity curves of this study). (c) Extensive or complete damage (with capacity
curves of HAZUS). (d) Building distribution. (e) Extensive or complete damage (with capacity
curves of this study). (f) Extensive or complete damage (with capacity curves of HAZUS). (g)
Building distribution. (h) Moderate damage (with capacity curves of this study). (i) Moderate
damage (with capacity curves of HAZUS). 774 H. Miura et al. / Soil Dynamics and Earthquake
Engineering 28 (2008) 764–777 strengths (accelerations) by the Delphi method are higher than
those of HAZUS in all the types. On the other hand, the displacement of the ultimate point by
the Delphi method show smaller than those of HAZUS except for the C1H building, indicating the
ductility of the buildings in Metro Manila is lower than that in the US. Fig. 14 shows the
distribution of the damaged buildings due to the scenario earthquake based on the capacity
curves developed in this study and those of HAZUS. Fig. 14(a), (d) and (g) shows the distributions
of the lowrise, mid-rise and high-rise buildings in the inventory data, respectively. Fig. 14(b) and
(c) shows the distribution of the completely or extensively damaged low-rise buildings.
Fig. 14(e) and (f) shows the distribution of the completely or extensively damaged mid-rise
buildings. Fig. 14(h) and (i) shows the distribution of the moderately damaged high-rise
buildings. Table 4 shows the number of the damaged buildings and the damage ratio at each
damage state. The damage distribution of the low-rise buildings in this study is significantly
different from that with the capacity curves of HAZUS. In this study, the damage is concentrated
only in the soft soil areas such as the coastal lowland and the Marikina valley. In the estimation
with the capacity curves of HAZUS, on the contrary, the severe damage is distributed to the
whole area of Metro Manila. According to the number of damaged buildings shown in Table 4,
the number of damaged buildings in this study is larger than that in the other estimation. As
shown in Fig. 13, the low strength of the capacity in HAZUS causes the severe damage not only
in the soft soil area but also in the stiff soil area such as the central plateau. This trend is also
observed in the damage distribution of the mid-rise buildings as illustrated in Fig. 14(e) and (f).
Most of the high-rise buildings would suffer moderate damage but not severe damage. One of
the reasons is the spectral characteristic of the ground motion. The magnitude of the scenario
earthquake Mw 6.7 is not large enough to generate a strong ground motion with long period
more than several seconds, which contributes to the response of higher buildings. As shown in
Fig. 14(h) and (i), the significant difference between the distributions of the moderately
damaged high-rise buildings is not observed in the estimations. As shown in Table 4, the number
of the completely or extensively damaged buildings in the estimation with the capacity curves of
HAZUS is larger than that in this study since the capacity strength in HAZUS is rather small.

Conclusions

The seismic performance of the buildings in Metro Manila, Philippines is evaluated by

integrating the local experts’ judgments for the building damage estimation. First, the buildings
are classified into 20 categories according to the structural type, the number of stories and the
design vintage. The questionnaire is applied to the local experts in Metro Manila to integrate the
opinions of the experts by the Delphi method. The building capacity curve and the fragility curve
for each building category are
ARTICLE IN PRESS Table 4 Comparison of number of damaged buildings Building type Damage
state Developed from the result of the questionnaires. The derived capacity curves are
consistent with the result of the pushover analysis. It indicates that the integration of the
experts’ opinions provide the reliable seismic performance for the local building. The ground
motions due to a scenario earthquake are computed using the simulation technique based on
the underground structure model. The capacity spectrum method is applied to estimate the
building response due to the simulated ground motion. The damage ratios are calculated from
the fragility curves and the building responses. The distributions of the damaged buildings are
estimated by multiplying the damage ratios and the building inventory data. In the estimation of
this study for the low-rise and midrise buildings, the severely damaged buildings are mainly
concentrated in the soft soil areas such as the coastal lowlands and the Marikina valley. In the
estimation with the capacity curves of HAZUS, on the contrary, the severe damage is obtained
not only in the soft soil areas but also in the stiff soil areas such as the central plateau. The
differences of the damage distributions are caused by the capacity curves used in the
estimations. These results indicate the importance of the evaluation of the regionspecific
building performance for the reliable building damage estimation.

Acknowledgments
This study was done as a part of Development Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation
Technologies and Their Integration for the Asia-Pacific Region (EqTAP) Project sponsored by
MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) of Japan.

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Challenges in the Philippine mining industry
Eligia D. Clemente
No. 2019-04 (May 2019)

He Philippine Mining Act (PMA) is premised on the doctrine that all mineral lands are owned by the state
but are open to contractors on the basis of revenue sharing. With this in place, a company interested in
mining operations can enter into an agreement with the government to exploit and develop the land. The
revenues from the mining operations can then be shared not only with the national government but also
with the local government units (LGUs) and the barangays in the host and neighboring communities. Aside
from the provisions on mining agreements, the law also lays down various measures to protect the
environment and the stakeholders of the mining sector and defines areas where mining can be allowed.
Particularly protected are indigenous peoples (IP), who hold certificates of ancestral domain titles (CADT)
on lands inside the planned mining concession. Despite such provisions of PMA, however, audits
conducted by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) in 2016 found that several
mine areas were lacking proper environmental plans, with denuded forests and silted rivers as evidence
of such uncontrolled degradation (De Vera-Ruiz 2017). The partner-agencies of DENR in the
implementation of PMA, such as the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples (NCIP), are also reported
to be suffering from institutional issues that affect the performance of their role in the mining sector. This
Policy Note looks at the causes of such problems and reviews the legal framework to come up with policy
recommendation to address the issues. In particular, it reviews laws and department and executive orders
and presents the results of the key informant interviews (KIIs) involving representatives from the Chamber
of Mines of the Philippines and the public sector, specifically those from DENR and the local government.

The Philippine mining context

In the 2018 State of the Nation Address of President Duterte on July 23, he urged the mining industry “to
do its part in ensuring the nation’s sustainable development”, and that the mining management should
change because he will be imposing “restrictive policies”. He also reminded concerned agencies and LGUs
to “uphold the concept of intergenerational responsibility and utilization of our mineral wealth, the
protection and preservation of our biodiversity, anchored on the right to a balanced and healthy ecology”
(PCOO 2018). The PMA has already equipped the government agencies concerned with the regulatory
basis for putting in rules and regulations to push the policies forward. The initial implementing rules and
regulations crafted identified all the agencies with significant roles in the implementation of the PMA. As
the lead agency in this endeavor, DENR has created line bureaus for this purpose. The Mines and
Geosciences Bureau (MGB) is responsible for the administration and control of mining operations.
Meanwhile, the Environmental Management Bureau (EMB) is tasked to monitor and control
environmental conditions and the Forestry Management Bureau to oversee the management of the
forests under the mining concessions issued. NCIP has also been instituted to identify, monitor, and
ensure that IPs and their communities are protected and given their rightful share of the revenues from
the concessions. LGUs concerned are also given the mandate to approve or disapprove any mining project
prior to the issuance of permits by the MGB. With all these agencies in place, one would think that all
mining operations are working well and that the environment and the IPs are fully taken care of.
Interestingly, various issues emerged during the KIIs and the review of related laws and programs.
Issues in the implementation of mining laws Circumvention

Of permits the mixing of agencies assigned to handle mining concerns results in overlapping functions.
This creates a venue for cracks, which, interestingly, are filled in enterprising government employees
through illegal means. As an example, a mining company in one region insists that the permit to operate
a mining concession released by MGB is enough proof that trees can be cut to build access roads to the
mining site. However, DENR insists that tree-cutting permits need to be secured for this. The stalemate
has caused alleged requests for facilitation fees from employees of the concerned bureau. Because the
company did not want to accede to the request, this eventually led to the application of a novel but
destructive way to circumvent the requirement. The activity was commenced in the areas devoid of trees,
with the occasional tree allowed to exist amid the operation. Eventually, the tree died and a permit for
removing dead trees was secured, which took lesser time to process. This type of practice admittedly is
more destructive since the cut tree is no longer listed as part of the number of trees to be replaced.

Interfacing with LGUs

The PMA allows for a mineral production sharing agreement (MPSA) between the mining contractor and
the Philippine government through the MGB. On the other hand, the Local Government Code has
devolved to the LGU the powers and functions needed to ensure the protection of the environment and
maintain sustainability of its constituents. This has resulted in contradicting decisions on approvals of
MPSA. Although the Code specifies that national laws have preference over local ordinances, the breadth
of power LGUs need still to be delineated. As a case in point, prior to the start of operations, a mine
contractor needs to secure a free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) document from the communities
inside the intended area of operation. The procedure requires the company to present to the communities
their intention of starting a mine operation and discusses the positive and negative effects on the lives of
the dwellers. This meeting is attended by all stakeholders, including representatives of EMB, MGB, LGUs,
church, nongovernment organizations, and other interested parties. In cases where the LGU does not
want the mining activity to be in their area, they will delay the signing of the FPIC and will prevent other
bodies opposing their decision from attending the meeting. Furthermore, the Local Government Code
allows the LGUs to create their own revenue sources. In the case of one region, although the Internal
Revenue Code specifies that business taxes can be set at 1 to 2 percent of gross revenues, the local council
still managed to pass an ordinance approving an increase of business taxes from 1 percent to 2 percent,
which the businesses objected to. The companies deemed the prior rate as the legitimate one and only
paid such amount. In response to this, the LGU decided to sue these companies for nonpayment of taxes.

Delays in the declaration of IP claims

Part of the inclusions in the PMA was a provision for the funding of the Social Development
Management Program of the communities in the area covered by the mining contract. Any IP in the area
benefits through the royalty payments of the company. The NCIP’s role in determining the validity of an
IP’s claim to the area is a contentious issue. Becoming a mine contractor does not happen overnight.
With the serious intention to become one, the process starts with securing a mineral agreement under
MGB and consent from the affected community. In line with this, FPIC must be given by an IP
community following the guidelines and procedure set by NCIP. This is initiated by a stakeholder
meeting where the company presents the intention

Institutional issues of NCIP NCIP

Has a huge hole to fill particularly on the issue of poverty alleviation for these IP communities. With the
current inadequacies in logistics support from the government, this institution does not have enough
personnel to echo the mandated organizational setup in all regions. Multiple tasks are assigned to
personnel with no mentors or higherups as supervisors. Inadequacies in competencies are evident and
cause delays in the processing of necessary papers. One of the main functions of NCIP is to assign CADT
to register the IP’s ancestral domain. The process was observed to be lengthy, which starts from the
verification of claim, survey and delineation of areas, and inventory of IPs. A licensed geodetic engineer
is usually tasked to do these surveys, but only one region had a plantilla position for this. Moreover,
nonlawyers are tasked to take on the role of legal personnel in arbitration cases. One NCIP regional
director even also acts as secretary and treasurer, as well as director for one of the offices under the
NCIP. These personnel issues need to be resolved immediately to efficiently deliver needed services,
which comprise the first stage of the permitting process. At this point, no further progress on the
permitting can be expected until such time that the land ownership issues are resolved. The mandate of
NCIP is not limited to the preparation of CADTs. It also performs any other task to assist the IPs in
upholding their rights to the land and preserve their culture (Bangsoy 2017). With the lack of human
resource, work focus has been concentrated on the former, leaving a lackluster performance in other
tasks. One of these tasks is to assist in the planning for the proper use of funds received from mining
companies. However, as stated earlier, NCIP’s role is only up to the delivery of royalty to the heads of
communities. Part of the memorandum order issued by NCIP is for the regional office to assist in the
planning for the responsible use of the funds received. This, however, cannot be done properly with the
lack of informed personnel from NCIP. Given that these IPs are aware of their right to self-governance,
some leaders are adamant in pushing their independence on the use of the funds (Tauli-Corpuz 2018).
Despite the huge amount of money alloted to communities,1 they have not yet elevated their status
from their original position as among the poorest communities in the country (Ragos 2016). No proper
audit functions have been assigned to NCIP for this. A policy review also revealed that PMA was passed
in 1995, two years earlier than the IPRA. Prior to PMA were presidential decrees that also supported the
mining industry. However, no policy existed then for the IPs who were also establishing their ancestral
domains at the time. Moreover, IPRA only provided for the recognition of the rights the IPs have, but it
was not able to set guidelines and processes for the community’s consent. The manual for FPIC process
was only released in 2012, more than a decade later than the national laws. Consent has been relegated
more as One of the primary stakeholders of the mining industry is the indigenous peoples (IPs), who
hold certificates of ancestral domain titles on lands inside the planned mining concession. While the
Philippine Mining Act already lays down measures to protect them against the interests of big mining
companies, this study found that their consent to the conduct of mining operations has been relegated
more as a formality rather than a critical requirement for the development of a project in their domain.

Recommendations

Government agencies must review the implications of policies and procedures being implemented to
find solutions acceptable to all concerned offices rather than for specific regional offices only. Further,
given that the same policy is being implemented across the Philippines, regional differences in the
implementation of rules and regulations should be discouraged. Issuances of agencies under
department administrative orders have given too much leeway to regional directors to provide their
system of implementation, thus causing varying results. It would be good to discuss such issues and
come up with a common implementing guideline for all offices to eliminate personal tendencies to relax
rules. Sufficient human resource should also be supplied to NCIP offices for them to carry out their tasks
timely and efficiently. Delayed policy approvals have also caused delays in the receipt of benefits by IPs
and should thus be avoided. Meanwhile, with the backlog in personnel, issuances from NCIP can be
harmonized, such that a single protocol for permitting can be followed and duplication of requirements
can be minimized.On the matter of audit for finances received, proper preparation and guidance should
be given prior to the release of funds such that even without a formal audit, disbursements can be
tracked and funds properly accounted for. The planning exercise can be introduced as a guidance
seminar without telling them that sticking to the plan is mandatory. But with a plan in place, more likely
than not, the leaders will be more than willing to work on it. 4
References:

Bangsoy, K. D. 2017. Indigenous Peoples in the time of Duterte. The Guidon. September 13. De Vera –
Ruiz. 2017. “Kalikasan” environmental protection group backs DENR, calls for new mining policy. Manila
Bulletin. February 16. Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB). 2017. Mining facts and figures. Quezon
City, Philippines: MGB. http:// www.mgb.gov.ph/images/homepage-images/miningfacts-and-figures-----
--updated-January-2017.pdf (accessed on August 18, 2018). Presidential Communications Operations
Office (PCOO). 2018. State of the Nation Address of Rodrigo Roa Duterte, President of the Philippines, to
the Congress of the Philippines. https://pcoo.gov.ph/wp-content/ uploads/2018/07/2018-State-of-the-
Nation-Addressof-Duterte.pdf (accessed on July 30, 2018). Ragos, A.M. 2016. Mining communities and
social development: Assessing the Philippine Social Development and Management Program. Quezon
City, Philippines: Bantay Kita. https://www.bantaykita.ph/
uploads/2/9/9/2/29922649/mining_communities_and_ social_development.pdf (accessed on August
18, 2018). Tauli-Corpuz, V. 2018. Statement of Indigenous Peoples calling for the adoption of the IP
policy. Presented during the 19th meeting of the board of the Green Climate Fund. February 6–March 1,
GCF Headquarters Songdo, Incheon, South Korea.
Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for tsunami hazard assessment in the South
China Sea
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1565-2019 ©
Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Correspondence: Linlin Li (llli@ntu.edu.sg) Received: 9 April 2019 – Discussion started: 30 April 2019
Accepted: 10 July 2019 – Published: 31 July 2019

Abstract.

Seismogenic tsunami hazard assessments are highly dependent on the reliability of earthquake source
models. Here in a study of the Manila subduction zone (MSZ) system, we combine the geological
characteristics of the subducting plate, geometry, and coupling state of the subduction interface to
propose a series of fault rupture scenarios. We divide the subduction zone into three rupture segments:
14–16, 16–19, and 19–21.7◦ N inferred from geological structures associated with the down-going Sunda
plate. Each of these segments is capable of generating earthquakes of a magnitude between Mw = 8.5+
and Mw = 9+, assuming a 1000-year seismic return period as suggested by previous studies. The most
poorly constrained segment of the MSZ lies between 19 and 21.7◦ N, and here we use both local
geological structures and characteristics of other subduction zone earthquakes around the world, to
investigate the potential rupture characteristics of this segment. We consider multiple rupture modes
for tsunamigenic earthquake and megathrust-splay fault earthquakes. These rupture models facilitate
an improved understanding of the potential tsunami hazard in the South China Sea (SCS). Hydrodynamic
simulations demonstrate that coastlines surrounding the SCS could be devastated by tsunami waves up
to 10 m if large megathrust earthquakes occur in these segments. The regions most prone to these
hazards include west Luzon of Philippines, southern Taiwan, southeastern China, central Vietnam, and
Palawan Island

Introduction

Large and damaging tsunamis are commonly triggered by megathrust ruptures that occur along
convergent plate boundaries (i.e., subduction zones). Since 1900, many megathrust ruptures have
triggered numerous devastating near- and farfield tsunamis including the 1952 Mw = 8.8–9.0 Kamchatka
event (e.g., Johnson and Satake, 1999; Kanamori, 1976), the 1960 Mw = 9.5 event in the Chile
subduction zones (e.g., Cifuentes, 1989; Moreno et al., 2009), the 1964 Mw = 9.2 Alaska earthquake
(e.g., Plafker, 1965), the 2004 Mw = 9.2 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake along the northern Sunda
Trench (e.g., Vigny et al., 2005; Banerjee et al., 2007; Chlieh et al., 2007), and the more recent 2010 Mw
= 8.8 Maule event in Chile (e.g., Vigny et al., 2011; Pollitz et al., 2011) and 2011 Mw = 9.0 Tohoku-Oki
earthquake along the northwest border of the Pacific Ocean (e.g., Koketsu et al., 2011; Wei et al., 2012).
These earthquakes and their associated subduction zones have been intensively studied from different
perspectives, including their tectonic settings and longterm evolution, seismic activities, and geodetic
and geophysical features. In contrast, the Manila subduction zone (MSZ), which extends from southern
Taiwan to the southern tip of Luzon Island in the Philippines along the eastern margin of the South China
Sea (SCS) (Fig. 1), receives less attention, even though it shares many similarities with megathrust
systems where large tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred (Hsu et al., 2012, 2016)
Over the past decade, attempts to study megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis from the Manila
subduction zone have started to gain momentum. A number of rupture models have been used to
assess potential tsunami hazard in the SCS (e.g., Hong Nguyen et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2009; Megawati et
al., 2009; Okal et al., 2011; Wu and Huang, 2009), and yet the simulated tsunami wave heights and the
subsequent hazard assessments differ greatly among studies (Hong Nguyen et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2009;
Megawati et al., 2009; Okal et al., 2011; Wu and Huang, 2009; Xie et al., 2019). The difference often lies
in the proposed fault-slip magnitudes of these models, and also the fault geometries used. Large
variability in the results produced by these models underscores the fact that the seismogenic behaviors
of the MSZ are still poorly understood. Some of the challenges which stand out and need to be resolved
include assessing whether the MSZ is capable of hosting Mw = 9+ earthquakes, investigating the amount
of tectonic strain it has accumulated and its style of strain accumulation, and constraining how that
strain is likely to be released in future.

Several lines of evidence suggest that the Manila trench has the potential to host a giant rupture
capable of generating a basin-wide tsunami. Firstly, both historical earthquake records and modern
seismicity databases (Hsu et al., 2012, 2016) indicate an absence of earthquakes larger than Mw = 7.6
since Spanish colonization of Luzon in the 1560s (Bautista et al., 2012; Megawati et al., 2009; Ramos et
al., 2017; Terry et al., 2017). The lack of significant megathrustrelated earthquakes in modern records
implies either a predominately aseismic megathrust or a highly coupled interseismic megathrust with
the potential for a large (Mw = 8.5+) rupture (e.g., Hsu et al., 2012). Several recent studies favor the high
interseismic coupling model since both the analysis of earthquake focal mechanisms and geodetic
monitoring results demonstrate that the upper plate is under shortening, which suggests that the
megathrust, at least since the 1960s, shows minimal creeping (Bautista et al., 2001; Hsu et al., 2012,
2016). Secondly, the rate of plate convergence across the Manila trench is up to 90–100 mm yr−1 –
faster than the convergence rate of the Sumatra, Japan, and Nankai subduction zones, all of which have
hosted giant earthquakes in the past few decades (McCaffrey, 2008; Megawati et al., 2009; Hsu et al.,
2016, 2012;). Since the MSZ did not produce any significant events in the past 4 centuries, >30m of slip
deficit is estimated to have been accumulated on the subducting interface (Megawati et al., 2009; Hsu
et al., 2016). Thirdly, historical documents together with a few geological records across the SCS basin
have reported nearly 130 tsunami events with different generation mechanisms (i.e., earthquakes,
submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions). Although the credibility levels of these records varies
(Bautista et al., 2012; Lau et al., 2010; Paris et al., 2014) and the geologically based interpretation suffers
from the challenges of distinguishing tsunami waves from extreme storm surges, a series of records
stand out with a similar range of event ages. Notably, four independent geological and
geomorphological studies (Ramos et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2013; Yang et al., 2018; Yu et al., 2009) (Fig. 1)
have purported evidence from coastal deposits, which they have inferred to be the result of a large
tsunami event in SCS around 1000 to 1064 CE, which is nearly coincident with a large historical wave
event recorded in Chao’an, Guangdong, in November, 1076 CE (Lau et al., 2010). The four independent
sites of geological evidence are located at Dongdao island (Sun et al., 2013), Yongshu island (Yu et al.,
2009), Badoc island near Luzon (Ramos et al., 2017), and Nan’ao Dao on the southern Chinese coastline
(Yang et al., 2018) (Fig. 1). Since these studies identified only one event and if it were indeed generated
by one tsunami, then we can conclude that the event was likely to be basin-wide and triggered by a very
large MSZ event. Such an event would be a megathrust earthquake with sufficiently large rupture up to
1000 km long. Such a long and persistent rupture is comparable to the rupture length of the 2004
Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (e.g., Megawati et al., 2009). With the aforementioned evidence, there
is no reason to rule out the possibility that the Manila trench could rupture as an Mw = 9 earthquake
(i.e., Megawati et al., 2009; Hsu et al., 2016). The current status of the Manila subduction zone could be
an analog of the Sumatran subduction zone before the 2004 Mw = 9.2 Sumatra–Andaman event
between Myanmar and Aceh where a paucity of earthquakes > Mw = 8 precede the 2004 event (Chlieh
et al., 2008; Hsu et al., 2012), despite the very different geological settings (i.e., age, buoyancy, fault
geometry) between these two subduction zones. The SCS region is vulnerable to potential tsunami
hazard. It covers an area of ca. 3.5 million km2 (Terry et al., 2017), and is encircled by the coastlines of
southeastern China, southern Taiwan, the western Philippines, eastern Vietnam, northern Borneo, and
eastern Malaysia, forming a semienclosed basin (Fig. 1).

The SCS coastline is one of the world’s most densely populated with more than 80 million people living
in the surrounding coastal cities (Terry et al., 2017). Many of these coastal cities serve as the economic
centers and play pivotal roles in their respective countries’ economic development. The coastline also
hosts a very high density of major infrastructure (i.e., nuclear power plants, ports, airports). Data from
the World Nuclear Association show that more than 10 nuclear power plants are currently in operation
or about to start construction on the SCS coastline (http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library,
last access: 9 April 2019). Thus, if a large megathrust earthquake (e.g., Mw > 9) were to occur within the
SCS basin (Li et al., 2018), the impact would be amplified and much more devastating as the SCS is only
about 1/20 the size of the Indian Ocean. It is therefore crucial to provide physically based earthquake
rupture models for a more realistic tsunami hazard assessment in the SCS region. This study differs from
previous studies (e.g., Hong Nguyen et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2009; Megawati et al., 2009; Okal et al., 2011;
Wu and Huang, 2009) because we utilize a geodetic coupling model constrained by 17 years of GPS
velocity measurements (Hsu et al., 2016) to propose a suite of better constrained physically based
earthquake rupture scenarios. We also consider rupture segmentations constrained by the geological
characteristics and the relief of the subducting Sunda plate. Scenario-based rupture models are different
with the probabilistically based tsunami hazard assessments within which hundreds and thousands are
implemented for rupture uncertainty estimates. Therefore, the probabilistic approaches (e.g., Li et al.,
2016; Grezio et al., 2017) are often more complex to understand and implement than the scenario-
based approaches. Here the proposed rupture models afford a physically based understanding of the
tsunami hazard in the SCS. As a demonstration, we implement the rupture models to conduct
hydrodynamic simulations to assess the tsunami characteristics along the coastlines of the SCS.
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019
1568 Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for tsunami hazard assessment 2
Refined possible rupture scenarios Forecasting the extent and the slip distribution of earthquake
ruptures is a challenging task. Before the 2004 Mw = 9.2 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Chlieh et al.,
2008), a Mw = 9 earthquake had never been anticipated along the Sunda Trench, due to its oblique
convergence orientation and seismically inactive feature (Satake and Atwater, 2007). Globally, the
eventual ruptures of some unexpected fault locations keep surprising scientists (Bilek and Lay, 2018).
We have seen partial ruptures of fully locked megathrusts (Konca et al., 2008; Qiu et al., 2016; Ruiz et
al., 2014; Schurr et al., 2014), and piecemeal breaks in the center of perceived seismic gaps (e.g., Salman
et al., 2017). Even with improved observations, it remains difficult to constrain the magnitude of a
potential earthquake in the first order, and even more difficult to define the rupture pattern (e.g., Lay,
2018). A recent example comes from Japan where Loveless and Meade (2010) used a number of inland
GPS stations to estimate the coupling state of the Japan megathrust before the 2011 TohokuOki
earthquake. They indicated the spatial extent of a possible future rupture. Notably, the rupture models
constrained by multiple geodetic data sets after the 2011 earthquake (Koketsu et al., 2011; Loveless and
Meade, 2011; Wei et al., 2012) are significantly different to the coupling map of Loveless and Meade
(2010). The discrepancy between a coupling map and actual rupture estimates has also been observed
at other subduction zones (e.g., Ruiz et al., 2014; Schurr et al., 2014) and for the collision zone between
the Indian and Eurasian plates (Avouac et al., 2015; Qiu et al., 2016; Stevens and Avouac, 2015). Clearly,
our current knowledge of the seismogenic characteristics of giant earthquakes remains deficient. Great
efforts have been made to investigate the physical parameters that characterize subduction zones with
regard to the geometry, geology, and dynamics (Schellart and Rawlinson, 2013). Systematic analysis of
collections of great earthquakes globally indeed suggests that some of the physical parameters do play
key roles in controlling the rupture characteristics (Bilek and Lay, 2018; Bletery et al., 2016; Schellart and
Rawlinson, 2013), although limitations in the historical earthquake records inevitably make it difficult to
have high confidence on such relationships. Taking into account the geometrical effects, previous
studies have divided the entire Manila subduction zone into three segments (i.e., Zhu et al., 2013; Li et
al., 2016; Gao et al., 2018). Here we follow the segments proposed by Li et al. (2016), and we provide
new constraints on earthquake and tsunami potentials by combining geological information and the
geodetic constrained coupling map to adjust these segments accordingly. The modulated three
segments are 14–16, 16–19, and 19– 22◦ N. Their significance is detailed in subsequent sections. 2.1
Rupture segment 1 (zone 1, 14–16◦ N)

The Manila trench primarily starts from ca. 13◦ N west of Mindoro and ends at ca. 22◦ N southwest of
Taiwan, and beyond these bounds the Manila trench gradually transforms into a collision and
accretionary belt in the north and south (Fig. 1). At the southernmost area of the Manila trench, the
strike direction of the trench bends to the southeast offshore of Mindoro Island (ca. 13◦ N) before it
further collides with Panay (ca. 11◦ N). Within this region (ca. 13 to 11◦ N) the relocated seismicity
suggests the subducting slab dips almost vertically, with an absence of the deep seismicity (Bautista et
al., 2001). Based on these features, Bautista et al. (2001) suggest the subducting slab may have been
heated up and assimilated into the mantle. We, therefore, interpret that the great megathrust
earthquake is less likely south of 13◦ N. Li et al. (2016) placed the southern boundary of the first
segment at ca. 12.5◦ N. In contrast, Bautista et al. (2001) proposed a slab tear at ca. 14◦ N, which is the
result of the collision of a micro-continental plate with Mindoro and Panay islands and as evidenced by
the narrow seismicity gap north of 14◦ N that trends northeastward (Fig. 2). Based on these geological
characteristics and geodetic measurements, together with the fact that the spatial coverage of GPS
measurements in this region only allows us to estimate the coupling status starting at 14◦ N to the north
(Hsu et al. 2016), we move the southern boundary of the first segment from ca. 12.5◦ N proposed by Li
et al. (2016) to 14◦ N, but we do not rule out the possibility of ruptures that propagate across 14 to 13◦
N or even beyond. Moving to the north, between 16 and ca. 17.5◦ N, a bathymetric high called the
Scarborough seamount chain is subducting beneath the Philippine plate. The Scarborough seamount can
be traced between ca. 12 and 18◦ N from the subducting Sunda plate and between ca. 16 and 19◦ N (Fig.
1) after subducting beneath the Philippine plate from the regional tomography model (Wu et al., 2016).
This seamount chain has been interpreted as part of an extinct middle ocean ridge (MOR) that is either
presently being accreted or subducted under the trench at 16 ◦N (Ludwig, 1970; Pautot and Rangin,
1989). A slab tear was proposed at 16◦ N based on seismic-related strain energy release of intermediate
depth and shape changes in the dip angle of the slab (Bautista et al., 2001). Although great earthquakes
can rupture across the seamounts or morphological bounds occasionally (e.g., Bell et al., 2014; Duan,
2012; Kumagai et al., 2012), global observations suggest that in many cases seamounts or barriers
impede (Singh et al., 2011; Wang and Bilek, 2011) or confine rupture propagations (Qiu et al., 2016).
Further, we note that slab tears at 14 and 16◦ N bound the southern and northern tips of the highly
coupled west Luzon trough (Hsu et al., 2012, 2016) coincidently, and these tears may act as
morphological barriers to limit the rupture propagation similar to that noted from the 2015 Mw = 7.8
Nepal event (Qiu et al., Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-
sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for tsunami hazard
assessment 1569 Figure 2. Seismicity (Mw > 4.5) in the Manila subduction zone between 1900 and 2018.
This data set is downloaded from the USGS catalog. Color represents the depth and size scales of the
seismic moment magnitude indicated in the legend. 2016).

We, therefore, define the region between 14 and 16◦ N as segment 1 (zone 1) (Fig. 3a and d). 2.2
Rupture segment 2 (zone 2, 16–19◦ N) As noted in Sect. 2.1, the Scarborough seamount chain is located
between ca. 16 and 17.5◦ N where the subducting Sunda plate meets with the Philippine plate (Fig. 1). A
regional tomography model also suggests that the subducted seamount chain can be traced between ca.
16 and 19◦ N (Wu et al., 2016). In this subducted seamount region, the absence of seismicity and
seismic-related strain energy release at intermediate depths suggest the possible trajectory of the MOR
that is interpreted to be still hot and deforming plastically (Bautista et al., 2001). Globally studies of
subducting seamount systems suggest that large fracture zones are formed surrounding the seamount,
and the highly fractured region can act as barriers to hinder the rupture propagation (e.g., Wang and
Bilek, 2011). Because the stress concentration in and around the fracture zones is high and may easily
reach failure criteria, the seamount can trigger (e.g., Kumagai et al., 2012; Koyama et al., 2013) the
failure of highly stressed asperities in the neighborhood, nucleating as a great earthquake (e.g., Kumagai
et al., 2012; Koyama et al., 2013). Previous studies also suggest that seamounts cause persistent fault
creep (e.g., Singh et al., 2011) or rupture as small earthquakes due to localized areas of high fracture and
associated regional stress anomalies (e.g., Wang and Bilek, 2011). Thus, fault creep and the rupture of
single or multiple asperities are all possible in this region. The Geodetic coupling map constrained by
long-term GPS velocity measurements indicates that the seamount chain region (i.e., ca. 16 to 19◦ N) is
less coupled (Fig. 3, coupling models A and B), partially due to the fault creep caused by the seamounts
or poor constraints by paucity of the offshore observations (Hsu et al., 2012, 2016). The weak coupling
extends further north to 19◦ N, in the area of the southern tip of the North Luzon Trough and west of
the northern tip of Luzon Island. This area is likely creeping or weakly coupled (Fig. 3, coupling mode A
and B). Additionally a trenchparallel gravity anomaly (TPGA) has been interpreted with great subduction
earthquakes occurring predominately in areas characterized by strongly negative TPGA, while regions
with strongly positive TPGA are relatively aseismic (Song and Simons, 2003). We note that positive TPGA
covers from ca. 16 to 19◦ N (Hsu et al., 2012), coinciding with the geodetically determined weakly
coupled and creep regions. Considering all these factors mentioned above, we redefine segment 2 (zone
2) as the region between 16 and 19◦ N as (Fig. 3b and e) slightly extends further north when compared
with the same segment of Li et al. (2016). 2.3 Rupture segment 3 (zone 3, 19–22◦ N) The area of the
megathrust bounded between the southern tip of Taiwan and northern Luzon (between 19 and 22◦ N)
(Fig. 1) is poorly understood, as the current available geodetic measurements are sparse and primarily
deployed in the volcanic islands to the east which are far away from the Manila trench (Hsu et al., 2012,
2016). In this region, the Manila trench bends sharply at 20◦ N (Fig. 1). Geologically the bending has
been interpreted as the result of the subduction of a high-relief bathymetrical plateau that is sufficient
buoyant to impede subduction (Bautista et al., 2001; Suppe, 1988) or
 may due to thick sediments (Lin et al., 2009). Additionally, here regional block faulting stretches the
continental crust, resulting in numerous micro-continental fragments. Further, the 1980s geophysical
studies (Taylor and Hayes, 2013) have recovered a magnetic quiet zone characterized to the continental-
to-oceanic boundary (Bautista et al., 2001), and this zone was further interpreted with a transition zone
between a continental and oceanic lithosphere (Taylor and Hayes, 2013). If these numerous fragments
are indeed subducting beneath the Philippine Sea Plate, then they would have to be buoyant enough to
resist the subducting process at 20◦ N with fast subducting of the neighboring portions of the trench
that may extending south to 19◦ N. Such a situation would result a complex stress field in the upper
plates that were mirrored by diverse and complicated focal mechanism solutions (Bautista et al., 2001).
As more marine geophysical data becomes available, there is an increased understanding of the
geological structure and www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019 1570 Q. Qiu et al.:

Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for tsunami hazard assessment Figure 3. Proposed
rupture slip models based on coupling models from Hsu et al. (2016) assuming a 1000-year seismic
return time period. Panels (a) and (b) show the slip models from coupling model A (Hsu et al., 2016) in
zones 1 and 2, respectively. Panel (c) shows a proposed hybrid model based on coupling model A (19 to
20◦ N) and a Gaussian shape of slip distribution (20 to 21.7◦ N) with a 50 % coupling ratio in zone 3.
Panels (d–f) represent the same slip models as (a–c) but based on coupling model B (Hsu et al., 2016).
CM refers to coupling model. Coupling models A and B are from Hsu et al. (2016) that are shown in the
inset map. White arrows show the possible slip directions during an earthquake. Vectors in the coupling
maps show the slip deficit direction that is accumulated for future release in earthquakes. The estimated
seismic moments of each model are labeled in each subplot with rigidity of 30 GPa. The slip magnitude
and coupling ratio are shown by its corresponding color scales.

potential seismogenic faults (Lin et al., 2009). Detailed analysis of seismic reflection data (i.e., line 973 in
Lin et al., 2009) reveals prominent seismogenic structures in the region, which include frontal
decollement beneath the lowerslip domain and out-of-sequence thrusts (OOSTs) in lowerand upper-
slope domains (Lin et al., 2009; Zhu et al., 2013). Evidence from the thermal regime of these structures
suggests that the megathrust and part of the frontal decollement are seismogenic (Lin et al., 2009).
These seismogenic structures are found to be analogous to that observed in the Nankai prism of the
Nankai Trough, Japan, posing potential for generating great earthquakes and tsunamis as they did in
Nankai (Lin et al., 2009; Yokota et al., 2016). Fan et al. (2016) revealed a low-velocity zone that spans
from shallow to deep depths of 20–200 km beneath the prism, suggesting that the collision develops
northward and the subducting process may stop at 22◦ N. Coincidently, at a similar latitude (21.5◦ N), Lin
et al. (2009) interpret that south of Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019 www.nat-hazards-
earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for
tsunami hazard assessment 1571 21.5◦ N, the subducting is active while north of this latitude the plate
convergence is accommodated by intense compressional deformation of the crust due to the buoyance
of the Eurasian plate that resists subduction.

Consequently, in light of the geological evidence noted above, we slightly shorten the northern
boundary of segment 3 from Li et al. (2016), and we define the region between 19 and 21.7◦ N as
segment 3 (zone 3) (Fig. 3c and f). 3 Proposed slip deficit models Using geodetic surface measurements,
a velocity value can be derived and used to constrain the elastic strain accumulation rate between the
subduction plate interfaces, the socalled interseismic coupling model (Chlieh et al., 2008; Hsu et al.,
2012, 2016; Loveless and Meade, 2010; Megawati et al., 2009). This model reveals strain accumulation
within seismic cycles that can potentially be released during great earthquakes, although the final
rupture extent is commonly not exactly the same as forecasted by the coupling maps (Konca et al., 2008;
Ruiz et al., 2014) and in some cases uncoupled parts of the megathrust may regularly produce tsunamis
(Witter et al., 2016). However to move towards an associated tsunami hazard assessment from such
potential ruptures, the coupling map, although not perfect, is often the necessary choice (e.g., Power et
al., 2012; Megawati et al., 2009). Using decades-long GPS velocity measurements, Hsu et al. (2016)
proposed two coupling models (A and B) that best explain the plate movements and coupling state on
the Manila megathrust and other faults on Luzon Island. With this coupling or slip deficit rate estimates
and the possible seismic return time period, we can forecast the likely slip distributions that may fail in
future earthquakes. For seismic return time period, given the short duration of historical records relative
to the return periods of large-magnitude events of interest, and limitations in our capacity to infer
earthquake return periods from first-principle physics, it is unrealistic to expect to develop a
comprehensive understanding of seismic return periods.

We thus have to rely on the observations. The modern seismic records for the Manila trench only trace
back to ∼ 1900 and provide constraints on the natural frequency of earthquakes with its corresponding
magnitude assuming the Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) earthquake relations, and thus are often
implemented for tsunami hazard assessment (Li et al., 2016; Power et al., 2012). Historical records since
the 1560s suggest that there is no recorded earthquake with Mw > 7.6 in the Manila subduction zone,
implying that the determined return time period for a great earthquake from the G–R relation will likely
be poorly constrained (Hsu et al., 2016). However geological evidence from purported tsunami deposits
may provide evidence of tsunamis at four locations in the SCS (i.e., Fig. 1, Ramos et al., 2017; Sun et al.,
2013; Yu et al., 2009; Yang et al., 2018). Some studies suggest that a giant tsunami event might have
occurred ca. 1000–1064 CE (Ramos et al., 2017; Yang et al., 2018).

With an assumption of a 1000-year return period, the magnitude can reach Mw = 9+ from geodetic
analysis (Hsu et al., 2016). Here we choose to model scenarios that release 1000 years of accumulated
strain because these represent large, rare, and yet plausible events, which are of interest for hazard
assessment purposes, and paleogeologic data indicate that large events may have occurred about 1000
years ago. Based on coupling models A and B of Hsu et al. (2016) in which the spatial distribution of slip
rate and coupling rate is available, we use a return period of 1000 years to calculate the slip deficit of
great earthquakes assuming each event releases 1000 years of strain accumulation while ignoring the
possible portion of strain released by smaller events. For the predefined zones 1 to 3 (see Sect. 2.1–2.3),
different approaches are used. For zones 1 and 2 where the coupling ratios and slip rate are relatively
better constrained than zone 3, we calculate the slip deficit by multiplying the slip deficit rate at each
triangle node (Fig. 3a, b, d, and e) with 1000 years.

The slip deficit models in zone 1 for models A and B (Fig. 3a and d) are similar with the maximum slip >
50 m occurring at ca. 20–30 km seismogenic depth due to the high coupling ratio. For zone 2, the slip
model based on A has a compact area and less slip compared with the slip model based on B (Fig. 3b and
e). This is because the extra North Luzon Trough fault was introduced in model B, resulting in larger
spatial extent and higher coupling while equally explaining the GPS velocity measurements (Hsu et al.,
2016). Due to paucity of observations in zone 3, no coupling ratios were resolved. Geologically this zone
is much more complicated than zones 1 and 2 (Lin et al., 2009). Multiple OOSTs are revealed from
seismic reflection profiles (Lin et al., 2009; Zhu et al., 2013). Failure of these OOST (also called
megasplay) faults with high dip angle contributes to generating devastating waves as evidenced by
historic tsunami events in other subduction zones (Moore et al., 2007; Park et al., 2002).

It is, therefore, crucial but difficult to precisely quantify the individual role of the OOSTs and megathrust
in tsunami generation. We propose two end-member scenarios, considering different rupture modes in
zone 3 with two steps. We first calculate the slip deficit from the slip deficit rate of models A and B
between 19 and 20◦ N. We then consider two endmember scenarios in the region from 2 to 21.7◦ N. The
first member is the seismogenic events with rupture depths determined from a collection of global
centroid moment tensor (GCMT) solutions of the world megathrust earthquakes

(Fig. 4). We assume the fault slip pattern follows a Gaussian distribution centered at 25 km of the mean
depth from the global great earthquakes. We cut off slip deeper than 50 km as the rock properties at
this depth and beyond induce semibrittle and ductile flow (Hippchen and Hyndman, 2008; Hyndman and
Wang, 1993; Wang, 2007). This can capture to first order the potential slip extent (Fig. 3c and f), with a
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019
1572 Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for tsunami hazard assessment
Figure 4. Depth distribution of the seismicity in the Manila subduction zone between 1970 and 2018.
This data set is downloaded from the GCMT catalog. Colors represent the seismic moment magnitude.
The giant 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Japan earthquakes are highlighted in the map. depth range of slip
consistent with observations from global megathrust great earthquakes (e.g., Chlieh et al., 2007; Pollitz
et al., 2011; Ruiz et al., 2014; Salman et al., 2017; Wei et al., 2012). For the second mode, we consider
tsunamigenic events similar to the 2011 Mw = 9.0 Japan earthquake in which the earthquake can
rupture all the way to the trench. We estimate the plate convergence rate in the forearc in zone 3 to be
67 mm yr−1 (Hsu et al., 2009) with a 24.5 mm yr−1 shortening under the 91.5 mm yr−1 plate
convergence rate with respect to the Sunda plate (Hsu et al., 2016; Sella et al., 2002).

We assume 67 mm yr−1 convergence was fully accommodated by the megathrust and implement it as
the amplitude of the Gaussian distribution, allowing the maximum slip occurring at the trench (Fig. 5a
and b). For each rupture mode, we have two slip models corresponding to coupling model A and B, and
assume half of plate convergence rate is accommodated by the megathrust (Fig. 5a and b, with 80 %
coupling ratio shown in Fig. 6c and d). For the second-member model, we implement rupture on both
the megasplay fault and the megathrust assuming each of them to accommodate half of the fore-arc
plate convergence and a uniform slip on the splay fault as a simple case (Fig. 5c and d). We implement
this splay fault only with seismogenic rupture events as we think this case is easier due to the splay
fault’s bottom cut to the megathrust at seismogenic depth (Lin et al., 2009). We consider a 50 %
coupling ratio for both the megathrust and splay fault (Fig. 5c and d, with 80 % coupling shown in Fig. 6a
and b). Details about these proposed rupture scenarios are given in the summary Table S1 in the
Supplement.

The geometry of the OOST is derived from Lin et al. (2009) and covers the area from 20 to ca. 22.2◦ N, as
we ignored the bending portions of the OOST in the north and south although they still can rupture with
a low probability. The fault is ca. 260 km long and ca. 16 km wide and it strikes 345◦ to the north and
dips 50◦ to the east (Figs. 1, 5, and 6). 4 Tsunami impacts in SCS 4.1 Tsunami simulation setup We use
the Cornel Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model to simulate the hydrodynamic process of the
tsunami waves (e.g., Wang et al., 2008; Philip, 1994; Li et al., 2016, 2018) produced by those proposed
earthquake ruptures. The initial surface elevations generated by all the proposed rupture models can be
found in the Supplement. To account for the nonlinear effect in the nearshore region, the simulation
solves the nonlinear shallow water equations in spherical coordinates for the entire SCS region with a
bottom Manning friction coefficient of 0.013 (Li et al., 2018). We used the 1 arcmin grid of General
Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) data for the modeling. A uniform grid was used because we
do not focus on near- and onshore processes where high-resolution topographical data and good
understanding of the bottom friction effect are required. Synthetic gauges along the 20 m isobaths are
specified to record the tsunami waveforms. For the initial tsunami waves, we assume the rupture occurs
instantaneously and the vertical seafloor deformation produced by the ruptures is equal to the initial
ocean surface deformation (e.g., Li et al., 2016, 2018; Liu et al., 2009).

4.2 Maximum tsunami wave height For all the simulated scenarios, the resulting wave height in the
near-source regions mainly depends on the rupture location and earthquake magnitude. While
in the relatively far field, the tsunami wave directivity effects and bathymetry effects also play
important roles (Figs. 7 and 8). We describe the tsunami impact of each pair of source models
from south (zone 1) to north (zone 3). Slip models in zone 1 generate the largest tsunami waves
(> 10 m) in western Luzon (Fig. 7a and b). Central Vietnam experiences a similar tsunami height
(4–8 m) to the intermediate far-field area, western Palawan. Southeastern China and southern
Taiwan could be hit by up to 5 m tsunami waves (Fig. 7a and b). Moving to zone 2, the slip
models show the significant difference in terms of both magnitude and slip distribution between
models A and B (Fig. 3b and e). Consequently, the tsunami impact caused by model B is much
larger than that caused by model A in both near-source (e.g., western Luzon and southern
Taiwan) and far-field regions (e.g., southeastern China and central Vietnam). Compared with the
region most affected by slip models in zone 1, the worst-hit region also moves northward with
the rupture location. Similarly, when the earthquakes rupture the megathrust in zone 3, the
hardest-hit regions move further to the northern part of the SCS and concentrate in northNat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-
sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for
tsunami hazard assessment 1573 Figure 5. Proposed slip models in zone 3. Panels (a, b) show
the shallow rupture type of slip models (e.g., Tohoku-Oki) based on coupling models A and B
(Hsu et al., 2016), respectively. Panels (c, d) represent megathrust (Fig. 3c and f) rupture and the
out-of-sequence megasplay type of slip models, respectively. We assume 50 % coupling for the
megathrust and the megasplay faults. CM refers to the coupling model shown in the inset map.
White arrows show the possible slip directions during earthquakes. Vectors in the coupling maps
show the slip deficit direction that is accumulated for future release in earthquakes. ern Luzon,
southern Taiwan, and southeastern China
4.3 (Fig. 7e and f). Further, Fig. 8 shows the diverse tsunami impacts generated by rupture scenarios
in zone 3. Not surprisingly, the results suggest rupture models with higher coupling cases (Fig. 8a
and b) result in larger tsunami wave heights in regions located in the northeast SCS despite the
tsunami generation efficacy of shallow slip earthquakes (Fig. 8c and d). One interesting
phenomenon worthy of mention is the high tsunami hazard of southeastern China regardless of
the rupture locations. This is likely explained by the combined effect of tsunami wave directivity
and bathymetry (Figs. 7 and 8). Tsunami waves refract significantly on the southern Chinese
coast due to the shape and gradient of the continental slope, leaving southeastern China
(including coastlines of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau) in the direct tsunami path. To
summarize, the near-source regions including western Luzon, northern Luzon, and southern
 Taiwan face the greatest tsunami hazard. The second most threatened areas are www.nat-
hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019
1574 Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for tsunami hazard
assessment Figure 6. (a) Seismogenic megathrust rupture together with megasplay rupture
scenario with 80 % coupling ratio for each of them from model A of Hsu et al. (2016). Panel (b)
same as (a) but from model B of Hsu et al. (2016). (c) Shallow rupture (e.g., Tohoku-Oki rupture)
the same as Fig. 3a but with 80 % coupling ratio on the megathrust. (d) Shallow rupture (e.g.,
Tohoku-Oki rupture) same as Fig. 3b but with 80 % coupling ratio on the megathrust. A 1000-
year seismic return period was assumed in the slip calculation. southeastern China, central
Vietnam, and western Palawan. Archipelagos inside the SCS including Dongsha, Zhongsha, and
Xisha also suffer severe tsunamis (up to 6–8 m tsunami wave height) when large earthquakes
occur in zones 2 and 3. Coastal regions of northern Borneo, eastern Malaysia, eastern Thailand,
and southern Cambodia are significantly less affected. 4.3 Tsunami travel time
4.4 The tsunami travel time is key information in tsunami evacuation planning. Similar to the other
subduction zones, the near-source areas including the coast of Luzon and southern Taiwan
suffer the highest tsunami waves with least evacuation time (Figs. 7 and 8). We plot the time
series of tsunami waves generated by all the source models in selected synthetic gauges near
nine major coastal cities in Fig. 9. DeNat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources
along Manila trench for tsunami hazard assessment 1575 Figure 7. Modeled maximum tsunami
wave heights and arrival time contours in the SCS. Panels (a, c, e) show the maximum tsunami
wave heights generated from rupture zones 1–3 based on slip models calculated from coupling
model A (Hsu et al., 2016), respectively. Panels (b, d, f) show the same maximum tsunami wave
heights but with slip models calculated from coupling model B (Hsu et al., 2016). In zone 3, we
show Gaussian slip distribution with a 50 % coupling ratio scenario with other example scenarios
shown in Fig. 8. The solid black contours show hourly tsunami arrival time with half-hour
increments (dashed contours).
4.5 The colored dots show the subsampled location at 20 m water depth, with color showing the
maximum wave heights. www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019 1576 Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along Manila
trench for tsunami hazard assessment Figure 8. Maximum tsunami wave heights from different
rupture characteristics in zone 3 with hybrid coupling models. Panels (a, c, e) show the
maximum tsunami wave heights based on coupling model A (Hsu et al., 2016). Panels (b, d, f)
show the same maximum tsunami wave heights but with slip models based on coupling model B
(Hsu et al., 2016). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019 www.nat-hazards-earth-
syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for
tsunami hazard assessment 1577 pending on the rupture locations, the tsunami arrival time is in
minutes or less than half an hour for near-source cities, like Vigan, Kenting, and Kaohsiung (Fig.
9), posing great challenges to the early-warning system and subsequent evacuation process. In
other areas tsunami wave travel time is relatively longer for Vietnam and southeastern China.
The arrival time is commonly between 2 and 3 h after the earthquake for central Vietnam and
3–4 h for southern China. For the archipelagos inside the SCS, the tsunami waves arrive much
earlier than they do on the mainland in Vietnam and China, typically ∼ 1 h earlier. The earlier
arrival time in archipelagos make them ideal locations for installing tsunami monitoring
 instruments (e.g., tide gauges or GPS; see Peng et al., 2019). Such measurements may provide
timely constraints on wave height for the evacuations in far-field areas. Detailed inundation
maps of the main coastal cities in this region.

Discussion

How and where earthquake rupture will occur on a plate boundary is challenging to forecast (Bilek and
Lay, 2018; Satake and Atwater, 2007). A comprehensive understanding of a single megathrust behavior
may be impractical since the seismic cycle is typically on the order of hundreds and thousands of years,
much longer than instrumental records. Conversely, understanding megathrust behaviors over different
subduction zones at different time stages of their cycle offers insights into rupture style and
characteristics. Previous studies have intensively investigated giant subduction zone earthquakes,
gaining useful insights into physical parameters that are related to developing giant ruptures. Such
physical parameters include the subducting plate age, rate, and buoyance of the slab (Kanamori, 2006;
Nishikawa and Ide, 2014; Ruff and Kanamori, 1980, 1983); the forearc structures (Song and Simons,
2003; Wells et al., 2003); upper plate characteristics including plate motion (Schellart and Rawlinson,
2013); trench characteristics of the long-term migration (Schellart and Rawlinson, 2013) and sediment
thickness (Heuret et al., 2012); and the width of seismogenic zones (Hayes et al., 2012; Schellart and
Rawlinson, 2013). As more data become available, we understand that the convergence rate does not
play a significant role in generating giant earthquakes (McCaffrey, 1994; Stein and Okal, 2007; Nishikawa
and Ide, 2014). The maximum moment magnitude of a potential earthquake is often determined from
seismic catalogue data, alternatively determined from basic moment conservation principles and catalog
data (Rong et al., 2014; Kagan and Jackson, 2013).

Overall, with current short observation time span compared with multi-century seismic return period, it
is improper to make a determination on the relationship between these physical parameters and how
big or how often a giant earthquake can occur in any subduction zone (McCaffrey, 2008). Clearly, long-
term and complete observations within seismic cycles are required for a better understanding of
subduction zone rupture behaviors. Recently a summary study based on global subduction zone
observations concluded that megaseismic events preferentially rupture flat, gently dipping interfaces
(Bletery et al., 2016). In the Manila trench, the dip is gentle and progressively increases from north to
south (Bautista et al., 2001). In zone 3, the presence of subducting plateau of the continental fragments
results in a gently dipping, near-flat interface that potentially favors the development of giant
earthquakes (Figs. 1 and 2). The dipping degree is in a similar range as those found in other subduction
zones, e.g., Japan–Kuril– Kamchatka, Alaska–Aleutians, Sumatra–Java, South America, and Cascadia,
which are known to produce Mw > 9.0 earthquakes (Bletery et al., 2016). Morphological barriers have
been found to have a predominant role in controlling rupture propagation and style. The barriers can
confine and arrest rupture propagation (Qiu et al., 2016), and act as a persistent fence to stop rupture
(Meltzner et al., 2012; Morgan et al., 2017). Fault bends can also hinder rupture overstep at bending
points (Wesnousky, 1988, 2006). In the case of the Manila subduction zone, the presence of the
Scarborough seamount chain in zone 2 and slab tear in zone 1 indicates that a giant rupture propagation
through zones 3 to 1 is less likely, although we do acknowledge that a rupture-across-zone earthquake is
possible with very low probability, like the 2007 Mw = 8.1 earthquake that ruptured a triple junction
(Furlong et al., 2009; Taylor et al., 2008). Dynamic simulations do show possible scenarios that involve
multiple portions of the Manila trench rupturing as a single giant earthquake (Yu et al., 2018). However,
the details of the slab tear in zone 1 and the seamount chain in zone 2 were smoothed out in the
simulation, due to the challenges of the numerical calculation (Yu et al., 2018).

Regarding the potential source of the geological records, the tsunami simulations suggest the difficulty
of creating a scenario which could affect all four tsunami deposit locations with sufficiently high tsunami
waves, especially for the record located on Yongshu Island (Yu et al., 2009).

Assuming all four records are indeed tsunami deposits, the spatial distribution demands the whole
trench to rupture at once and the southern segment needs to extend further to 13◦ in order to generate
tsunami wave propagation in the southwest direction towards Yongshu. Another alternative explanation
could be that the deposits on Yongshu Island were generated by a large storm event instead of a
tsunami event. In summary, our definition of the rupture zones 1–3 are derived by taking into account
the bathymetry features of the subduction Eurasian plate, earthquake focal mechanism distributions,
structure-controlled TPGA, and more than 20- year-long GPS measurements. The refined coupling
models (Hsu et al., 2016) offer more detailed images that reflect the likely motions on the plate
interface. Combination of the coupling models and morphological bounds’ constrained zone definitions
provides more realistic rupture scenarios than plawww.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, 2019 1578 Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake sources along
Manila trench for tsunami hazard assessment Figure 9. Simulated tsunami wave time histories at
example coastal cities in the SCS region. Top, middle, and bottom of each subpanel show simulated
waves from ruptures in zones 1–3, respectively. A and B represent coupling models A and B from Hsu et
al. (2016). For rupture zone 3, we show the Gaussian slip distribution with 50 % coupling ratio cases (Fig.
3c and f) as examples. Nar fault with assumed uniform slip rupture cases. We have seen that finite
rupture models of historical earthquakes indicate that slip is heterogeneous, and this is represented by
our scenarios. Further detailed tsunami hazard assessment in the SCS demonstrates that uniform slip
models underpredict tsunami hazards compared to a heterogeneous slip model (Li et al., 2016).
Therefore, our refined earthquake rupture scenarios in zones 1 and 2 provide new insights into tsunami
hazard assessment in the SCS. For zone 3, the scarcity of measurements and the presence of
complicated geological structures result in a poor understanding of the seismogenic characteristics,
although the tsunami-genic potential remains high (Lin et al., 2009). The possible ruptures provided in
this study can be a first-order approximation of the earthquake scenarios in the region. Subsequent
measurements collected in coming years can help us to refine our understanding in this region.

Conclusion

We have proposed updated earthquake rupture scenarios along the Manila trench based on new
geological earthquake focal mechanism information and geodetic observations. These rupture models
enable tsunami assessment in the SCS and subsequent detailed examination of inundation processes for
megacities along the coastlines of the SCS. Tsunami simulations based on these rupture scenarios
indicate that the coastlines of the SCS region are under the risk of devastating tsunami waves,
specifically for western Luzon of the Philippines, southern Taiwan, southeastern China, central Vietnam,
and Palawan Island. In addition to the near-source region, southeastern China will also be attacked
severely due to the bathymetry focusing effect no matter which portion of the Manila thrust breaks.
Southern Taiwan is affected by ruptures in zones 2 and 3, with west Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19,
1565–1583, 2019 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1565/2019/ Q. Qiu et al.: Revised earthquake
sources along Manila trench for tsunami hazard assessment 1579 Luzon affected by all earthquake
scenarios. Central Vietnam and Palawan Island are mostly affected by ruptures in zones 1 and 2. In all
cases, the waves sweep these coastlines within ca. 3 h. Our results highlight that it is necessary to
conduct further detailed inundation investigations at these severely affected coastal regions, for future
preparation on hazard mitigation plans. Our findings also provide useful information that could be used
to find possible archived geological recordings of historical tsunami deposits, and call for subsequent
paleo-sedimentology studies in the SCS basin. Data availability. The GEBCO data used in this study were
downloaded from https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_ bathymetry_data/ (Weatherall,
2015) in October 2014 and readers can also currently access the data from this link. All data needed to
evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplement. We provide files
of initial surface elevations generated by the proposed fault models in the Supplement. Readers can
download these files for tsunami simulation. Additional data related to this paper can be requested from
the authors through email. Supplement. The supplement related to this article is available online at:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1565-2019-supplement. Author contributions. QQ, LL, YH, and YW
developed the method of calculating the fault parameters. QQ performed the tsunami simulations. QQ
and LL prepared the paper with contributions from all co-authors. Competing interests. The authors
declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgements.

This study is supported by Guangdong Province Introduced Innovative R & D Team of Geological
Processes and Natural Disasters around the South China Sea (2016ZT06N331) and National Natural
Science Foundation of China (41774049, 41590861). This study is also supported by a joint project
“Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in South China Sea region” between the National University of
Singapore and Shanghai Jiao Tong University. This project is funded by the Singapore National Research
Fund and National Natural Science Foundation of China. Adam D. Switzer thanks the support of Scor RE
through a donation. This research is also supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore and
the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. We thank
Constance T. Chua for the English proofreading of a previous version of the paper. Financial support.
This research has been supported by the Guangdong Province Introduced Innovative R & D Team of
Geological Processes and Natural Disasters around the South China Sea (grant no. 2016ZT06N331), the
National Natural Science Foundation.

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 *Environmental Sustainability Issues in Philippine Agriculture

Nicomedes D. Briones University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines Email:

nicomedes_briones@yahoo.com

August 2019

ABSTRACT

Farming and fishing are major sources of livelihood in rural households in the Philippines. Farming
systems in the country are complex, multi-faceted, and geared to promote efficient production and a
steady source of income. However, these have also wrought unwanted consequences on the
environment, notably soil erosion, water pollution, groundwater depletion, loss of natural habitats, and
loss of biological diversity. Farming systems are affected by exogenous environmental factors; in turn,
the farming systems also affect agricultural production resource bases. Initiatives from various sectors
to mitigate the adverse environmental impacts of farming systems and to protect the agricultural
production bases are in place in terms of policies, programs, and action projects.

BACKGROUND

The Philippines is predominantly an agriculture-dependent country; about one-third of the land area of
30 million hectares (ha) is classified as agricultural lands. Agriculture has contributed about 20% to the
country’s gross domestic product (GDP), 24% to total export earnings, and 46% to total employment in
the last 15 years [Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) 2003]. Agriculture accounted for 19.6% of the
GDP in 2003. The country’s 2004 population, on the other hand, was around 85 million, of which about
32.15 million (39%) relied on agriculture and agriculturerelated industries [National Statistics Office
(NSO) 2000; Population Resources Bureau (PRB) 2004]. About 21.7 million (67.3%) out of the total 31.3
million poor Filipinos depend on agriculture (Sana 2004). With the high population growth rate (about
2.3% annually), it is estimated that by year 2025, 5.24 million hectares more of frontier lands will be
converted to accommodate the needs of the population [NSO, 2000; Environmental Management
Bureau, Department of Environment and Natural Resources (EMB-DENR) 2004]. Food crops, particularly
rice and corn, continue to be the major contributors to agriculture’s gross value added and have become
major sources of growth. However, the main sources of export earnings are banana, pineapple, coconut,
sugar, and mango (BAS 2004). While one-third of the country’s total land area, or 10 million ha, is
actually farmed, only 58% (5.8 million ha) of agricultural lands are suitable for crop production.
Furthermore, only 2.5 million ha are considered to have the potential to respond to intensive agriculture
or can be cropped once a year (BAS 2004, DENR 2003). The details of the distribution by crop and
hectarage are as follows: Table 1. Land utilization Land Utilization Area (Million Ha) Percent Arable
lands, cereals, sugar cane 4.3923 39.45 Crops mixed with coconuts 3.7478 33.66 Coconut plantations
1.1326 10.17 Crops mixed with other plantations 0.3652 3.28 Fishponds from mangroves 0.1952 1.75
Other plantations 0.0908 0.82 Other fishponds 0.0101 0.09 Grasslands 1.2000 10.78 Total 11.134 100.00
68 Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Vol. 2, Nos. 1&2 grazing lands, thereby aggravating
soil degradation. Wastes from poultry and swine farms may pollute water systems and thus pose health
hazards. Aquatic resources have been a most important part in the daily lives of Filipinos, who are
heavily dependent on both freshwater and seawater resources. Aquatic ecosystems, especially the
marine and coastal areas, provide many essential environmental functions, including the recycling of
nutrients, as habitat for many organisms, and as recreation as well as livelihood for people. Vast coastal
waters seem to reduce the significance of the country’s lakes, rivers and reservoirs; yet these freshwater
resources provide domestic and industrial water supplies, irrigation for agriculture, fish supply for
landlocked communities, and transportation. The Philippines is an archipelago of around 7,100 islands
with a total coastline of about 18,000 kilometers. The country’s coastline area covers about 11,000
square kilometers (km2 ) of land and 267,000 km2 of marine waters. Due to its archipelagic
configuration, about 70% of the 1,526 municipalities, including large cities are located within the land
portion of the coastal zone (Vergara 1999). About two-thirds of the country’s population live in the
coastal zone, and are thus directly influenced by the coastal environment. In terms of freshwater
resources, the Philippines has 69 lakes and 421 principal rivers. There are also seven major reservoirs
ranging in size from 150 ha in Binga to 8,900 ha in Pantabangan. These man-made reservoirs are
multipurpose (e.g., for hydroelectric power generation, irrigation, domestic water supply, and flood
control). Freshwater resources serve as a source of water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial
activities, and as fishing grounds (aquaculture and open-access fishing). With the constant pressure of a
high population growth rate as well as the intense competition in the world market, the Philippines is
revitalizing its agricultural and fishery sectors. Under the Medium Term Philippine Development Plan for
2004-2010, two million hectares of agribusiness land are to be developed as a source of livelihood and
to generate additional employment (NEDA 2004). Inevitably, however, as the country accelerates the
pace of efforts to cope with the globalization initiatives and ensure food security for the population, it
cannot but Increased agricultural production has always been a priority in relation to environmental
protection in the Philippines. Environmental concern for the agricultural resource base has been
heightened starting in the 1990s due to such factors as the inappropriate use of modern farm
techniques, deforestation, conversion of prime agricultural lands, cultivation of marginal upland areas,
and depletion of fishery resources. Changing demands for food have affected the country’s poultry and
livestock industry. As the population’s incomes rise, demand for meat and meat products also tends to
increase, and poultry and livestock farming is intensified. Livestock and poultry provide protein sources
(meat, milk, egg), manure, draft power for land preparation and the transport of farm inputs and
products, and an income-savings scheme for small farmers. But there are concomitant environmental
issues that must be confronted alongside the intensified poultry and livestock production. Boosting
livestock (cattle, carabao, swine, goat, horse) production may contribute to the conversion of forest
areas into Over the years, the Philippines’ changes in agricultural land use can be gleaned in relation to
the changes in forest areas. The forest cover in the country has been continually decreasing over the
years, from 26% in 1970 to only 18% in 2000 (Table 2). This implies that forest land conversion into
other land uses such as agricultural, residential, commercial, and industrial uses have been very rapid in
the last three decades. Table 2. Changes in forest and agricultural lands, Philippines, 1970–2000 Year
Forest Area Agricultural Lands Area Percenta Area Percenta (million ha) (million ha) 1970 10.9 36 8.95
30 1980 7.4 25 12.16 41 1990 6.2 21 13.10 44 1995 5.6 19 13.09 42 2000 5.4 18 11.50 38 Note: a
Percentage is in relation to the Philippine total area of 30 million ha. Source: DENR-EMB 2002
Nicomedes D. Briones 69 confront the environmental impacts that threaten the agricultural production
bases.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PHILIPPINE FARMING SYSTEMS The major concerns of the
Philippine agricultural sector revolve around the urgency for: (a) increased production to sustain the
food needs of the growing population (or food security), (b) employment generation to meet the 10-
point agenda of the government, and (c) greater global competitiveness. Along the path to achieving
these goals, however, the country must also contend with the threat to the sustainability of the
croplands and fishery resources. Agricultural intensification, for example, as practiced especially in
corporate, large-scale farms, has solved certain problems of low production but, at the same time, it has
also created environmental and social problems. Table 3 summarizes the effects of agricultural practices
and farming systems on the Philippine environment. Table 3. Effect of agricultural practices and farming
systems on Philippine environment Farming System Problems Addressed Some Environmental Practice
Problems Created Mechanization of land preparation, Labor inefficiency Soil erosion, energy
dependency, planting and harvesting labor reduction a Intensive use of inorganic Low crop yield Ground
water contamination, nitrogenous fertilizer pests, soil and water pollution b Continuous and
indiscriminate Crop loss to pests New pests, resistance to pests, use of chemical pesticides water
pollution, human poisoning, chemical dependency c Planting of hybrids and genetically Low crop yield
Aggravated pest problems, narrow varieties and non-uniform traits loss of local adaptations, chemical
dependency, high input expenses d Reduction of fallow periods Low production Accelerated soil erosion
e of shifting cultivation areas Cultivation of fragile, Inadequacy of land Deforestation, accelerated soil
marginal upland areas for farming erosion, sedimentation of river systems, biodiversity loss f Sources: a
Padilla 1999; Briones 1990; Alcantara 1988 b Briones and Robles 2005; Loevinsohn 1987 c Loevinsohn
1987; Rola 1990; Robles 1999; Briones and Robles 2005 d Rola 1990; Briones and Robles 2005;
Loevinsohn 1987; ADB 1994 e Sajise et al. 1996; Briones 1990 f Sana 2004; Sajise et al. 1996; World
Resources Institute 1994. The Philippines’ croplands are presently under severe environmental stress:
prime or productive agricultural lowlands and alluvial plains are rapidly shrinking and the decreasing
man-land ratio has led the landless to occupy and cultivate ecologically unstable marginal lands. Such
practice has resulted in the severe degradation of the agricultural resource base, with subsequent
problems of accelerated soil erosion, siltation of irrigation systems, intense flooding, and water
pollution. Soil Erosion Soil erosion problems in the Philippines are quite pronounced due to the
geographic and climatic conditions that are aggravated by improper cultivation practices. Two-thirds of
the country’s total land area are hilly and mountainous, making these areas susceptible to soil erosion
(DENR 2003). Soil erosion inflicts on agriculture a number of negative direct impacts and side-effects,
namely: 70 Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Vol. 2, Nos. 1&2 low crop productivity,
reduction of the capacity of water conveyance structures, destruction of wildlife habitat, and
destruction of standing crops. About 9 million ha (out of the total land area of 30 million ha) are under
varying degrees of erosion, and approximately 1 million ha of agricultural lands are very susceptible to
soil erosion especially during the rainy season (EMB 2003). According to a 2003 study of the Bureau of
Soils and Water Management (BSWM), approximately 5.2 million ha of the country are classified as
severely eroded, 8.5 million ha as moderately eroded, and 8.8 million ha as slightly eroded. The
Philippine uplands are even more vulnerable to accelerated soil erosion primarily due to inappropriate
land uses. Over the years, the uplands have been subjected to encroachment due to increasing human
pressures. As shown in Table 2, the annual rate of deforestation in the 1970s and 1980s was about
130,000 ha per year. There is also a continuing population movement to the uplands where public lands
are considered as free-access resources. Shifting cultivation and indiscriminate logging are the major
causes of soil erosion in the Philippine uplands. Chemical Pollution from Farming Practices Farming
systems in the Philippines during the past few years can be generally characterized by intensive farm
production using inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. While production inputs offer advantages in terms
of increased crop production and protection, there are certain negative externalities involved in their
use. Over-utilization of these inputs decreases the soil’s humus content, which adversely affects its
infiltration and waterholding capacities. The loss of these two vital soil characteristics, in turn, makes the
soil loose and more susceptible to erosion. There are other ecological and health problems associated
with the use of fertilizer and pesticides, as discussed below. Inorganic Fertilizer. Following the
introduction of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) of rice in the Philippines in the late 1960s, fertilizer
consumption in the country has increased steadily through the years. The government encouraged
higher consumption of chemical fertilizers and pesticides by subsidizing farmers through a multitude of
crop improvement programs. Nitrogen became the most popular fertilizer nutrient demanded by
Filipino farmers; this is mostly used in rice, corn, sugarcane, and other plantation crops. In fact,
importation has been resorted to, given the inability of local manufacturers to meet the demand for
fertilizer. There are ecological problems associated with chemical fertilizer use. Excessive use of this
input is known to cause acidification of the soil. For example, in Loo Valley in Benguet Province, the
excessive use of chemical fertilizers in vegetable gardens has lowered the soil’s pH level to an average of
4.4 (Medina 1990). Acid soils are vulnerable to erosion because of the characteristic low electrolyte
levels in the soil solution. Acidity also depletes fertility through the development of toxic levels of iron
and by lowering the amount of most essential nutrients in the soil. In addition, soil microbia, which are
partly responsible for nutrient release, are adversely affected. The use of chemical fertilizers also poses
some health problems. The contamination of drinking water with nitrate concentration greater than 45
parts per million (ppm) can cause metheglobinemia, a disease which affects both livestock and human
infants (Rola 1990). Another health hazard results when nitrates in the food or in the digestive system
combine with protein to form nitrosoamines which are carcinogenic. Nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients
from fertilizers are washed down by run-off water into freshwater bodies, thus creating eutrophication
problems. One glaring example is the much eutrophied Laguna Lake in Southern Luzon. Of the 3,600 mt
of nitrogen that enter the lake and primarily cause the recurrent growth of algal blooms, 77.2% is
agricultural in origin [Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA) 1998]. Pesticide. The emergence of the
pesticide industry in the Philippines in the early 1950s coincided with the introduction of DDT, 2,4-D,
Endrin, and Malathion (Elazegui 1989). With the launching of the Green Revolution in 1965, the
government embarked on a program of crop protection based on chemicals. Since then, the massive use
of pesticides has become the norm in the various government national food production programs.
Nicomedes D. Briones 71 However, the use of pesticide as a crop protection agent has many negative
effects. One effect is the health hazards it poses to farmerusers. Loevensohn’s (1987) study showed that
the widespread use of pesticides by farmers in Central Luzon was followed by a 27% increase in deaths
among them from causes other than physical injury. An average of 503 cases of pesticide poisoning, of
which 15% died every year, had been reported from 1980 to 1988. Human milk in some towns of Laguna
Province was found to contain DDT. The widely used insecticides in the country are carbofuran, endrin,
parathion, and monocrotophos, which are all classified by the World Health Organization as extremely
or highly hazardous (Macracken and Conway 1987). Another problem with the continued reliance on
chemical pesticide is its capacity to cause pest build-up. One documented case is that of the diamond
back moth (Plutella xylostella, L.) which exhibits multiple resistance to malathion, methyl parathion,
DDT, diazinon, meviaphos, and carbaryl, and is developing resistance to newly introduced insecticides
(Barroga and Rejesus 1981, cited in Alcantara 1988). Rola (1989) attributed the continued use of
pesticides by farmers to the lack of knowledge of alternative pest controls that would give them the
same level of production and profit. Several studies have pointed out that current pesticide utilization
by farmers are not efficient. For instance, Medina (1990) found out that reduced spraying (4 times) has
not significantly lowered the yield when compared to the actual farmer’s practice which consists of nine
sprayings. Similarly, in the trials covering 105 farmers in 1980-1983, only 50% yielded a significant
difference in yields between completely protected and untreated fields. This was probably because of
the use of resistant varieties and the presence of natural enemies, implying inefficiency in the present
level of pesticide usage (Rola 1989). Pesticide hazards in the country are compounded by the
widespread ignorance of the hazards involved, poor labeling, inadequate supervision, and the lack
and/or difficulty of wearing protective clothing due to the prevailing hot farm conditions (Briones and
Robles 2005). Conversion of Prime Agricultural Lands into Other Land Uses As an offshoot of the
constant government urgings to attract foreign investments, to generate more employment
opportunities, and to decongest major population centers, thousands of hectares of agricultural lands
across the country have been, and are being, converted into other land uses. In the process, vast fertile
agricultural lands go to waste as they are converted to non-agriculture land uses, while environmentally
critical, marginal areas have been opened up for agricultural purposes. Landless farmers dislocated from
lowland communities usually encroach on forestlands where they practice lowland agricultural practices
that further cause resource degradation as shown in Table 2. For example, in the provinces of Cavite,
Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Bulacan, there is an ongoing massive conversion of prime agricultural lands
to housing, commercial establishments, and industrial estates. About 20,000 ha of farmlands were
converted every year (from 1970 to 1980) to be used for other land uses. It is estimated that more than
100,000 ha of agricultural lands all over the country are targeted for conversion in the next five years to
give way to industrial, commercial, residential, and tourism uses (Cardenas 1998). A study (BSWM 1991)
estimated that irrigated rice lands were converted to urban uses (settlements and industry) at an
average of 2,267 ha/year. For the period 1987-91, land use conversion in the country covered a total of
11,337 ha. Translating this land conversion into production figures, it is estimated that a hectare of
prime agricultural land removed is equivalent to at least three hectares of rainfed areas and five
hectares of ecologically fragile rolling upland farms, deprived of their capacity to produce food staples.
Apart from directly altering the physical environment through clearing farmlands and building industrial
projects, land conversion lessens the coverage of the government’s Comprehensive Agrarian Reform
Program (CARP). The shift in land use has provided landowners (of rice, corn, sugarcane, and coconut)
with another viable pretext for circumventing the redistribution of lands to the tenant-farmers that have
long tilled these lands. 72 Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Vol. 2, Nos. 1&2 Loss of
Genetic Diversity (Biodiversity) Biological resources—genes, species, and ecosystems that have actual or
potential value to people—are the physical manifestations of the earth’s biological diversity or
’biodiversity.’ The Philippines is one of the countries with the highest number of species of plants and
animals per unit area [Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau, Department of Environment and Natural
Resources (PAWB-DENR) 1992]. The primary issue besetting the country’s biodiversity is related to
habitat alteration, which results from land use changes that reduce the area of natural conditions.
Wherever clearings, settlements, and agricultural activities are established, species are displaced and
this has consequences on the ecological balance. Although the country is home to an extraordinary
variety of life forms, its biodiversity is also faced with problems and threats. Forest cover has been
drastically reduced; only about 5% of coral reefs remain in excellent condition; seagrass beds and
mangrove areas have been lost. It has been estimated that about 50% of national parks are no longer
biologically important (PAWB 1996). The present orientation of Philippine agriculture towards more
extensive use of monoculture and uniform strains erodes the genetic potential of local and indigenous
crops. Uniform strains and high-yielding varieties (HYVs) have now replaced local varieties in most
Philippine farms. While these HYVs are more productive in terms of volume of output, they are,
however, also more disease-prone and heavily reliant on intensive labor and chemical inputs. Thus, the
use of these improved varieties exposes the farmers to greater risks of pest- and disease-related crop
failures. Furthermore, the potential to improve the crops’ resistance to pests and diseases is diminishing
with the extinction of many of the wild strains from which crops are developed. Intensive and
continuous planting of the same crops every year also favors the build-up of pests and diseases.
Monoculture is not a serious problem but there are attendant environmental problems associated with
monoculture that can be addressed with appropriate farming practices. Farmers are already aware of
this concern. In poultry and livestock, incessant crossbreeding and varietal manipulations have reduced
their genetic variability. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) notes, for example, that 30% of
the world’s breeds of cattle, sheep, hogs, and chicken are now threatened by extinction (FAO 2000).
Intensification of Livestock and Poultry Farming Changes in the demand for food have also had their
impact on poultry and livestock farming. As incomes rise, the demand for meat and meat products also
tends to increase, triggering an intensified poultry and livestock farming. But there are concomitant
environmental issues that arise in the wake of intensified poultry and livestock production. Animal
waste management. Intensification of animal production causes environmental problems. In the
disposal of manure produced by farm animals, a high proportion of mineral and nutrient content is
released, thereby increasing the risks of polluting the water systems, by affecting river and coastal
fisheries and thereby posing a threat to the supply of clean drinking water. The smells emanating from
manure affect the living and working environment of the local population and have had adverse effects
on recreation and tourism in the areas. The rearing of animals in artificial conditions also creates the
need to produce feeds, usually in the form of cereals and fish meal concentrates, putting more pressure
not only on agricultural production but also on the fishing industry. In confined spaces, animals become
susceptible to the spread of disease, and feed is often supplemented by medicines which persist in
manure and water, and add to the problems of waste disposal. A study conducted by Alcantara et al.
(1996) indicates that the pollution loading of the Laguna Lake from swine and poultry farms comprises
3,944 t/year of nitrogen and 1,314 t/year of phosphorous. These chemicals contribute to the
eutrophication of the Lake. Animal waste management in confined system can be properly addressed by
installing wastewater treatment facilities. However, this may be too costly for small livestock growers.
Nicomedes D. Briones 73 Grazing. Philippine grasslands are rapidly expanding, which is the result of
forest degradation that gives rise to open lands where grass species establish and dominate. Grasslands,
an important resource for the livestock industry, can support only one or two animals per hectare,
which may lead to low meat production. As shown in Table 4, the Philippines has 900,000 ha of open
grasslands in 2004 which represents 3% of the country’s total land area. The dominant species is cogon
(Imperata cylindrica) which covers 30 to 80% of the natural grassland vegetation in the Philippines (EMB
2003). Overstocking may result in overgrazing, the disappearance of desirable range species, growth of
weeds, and soil erosion. The recommended ecologically sound stocking rate for Philippine grasslands is
one animal or cattle for every two hectares of land. mangroves, seagrass, and coral reefs, is one of the
focal points of study in sustainable development. The major threats to Philippine coastal resources are:
(1) siltation due to deforestation and improper agricultural practices, (2) settlements and coastal land
development, (3) nutrient enrichment due to agricultural fertilizer run-off and sewage, (4) industrial
pollutants, (5) destructive fishing methods, (6) overfishing, (7) storms and typhoons, and (8) others
(aquarium fishing, mariculture, coral extraction, diseases such as red tide, and tourist/ diver damage).
Mangrove resources in the Philippines have been decreasing steadily. Among the regions, Region 9 still
has the highest percentage of mangrove areas left at 45%, followed by Region 4 at 24%, and Region 10
at 16%. The swamp forest reserves are found in Palawan, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur,
Albay, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Masbate, Mindoro, Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Lanao del Norte, Misamis
Occidental, Davao, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Zamboanga del Sur (EMB 2004). The
decimation of mangroves is largely due to human developmental activities which fall into several major
categories, namely: infrastructure, industry, urban expansion, agricultural effects, the direct removal of
mangroves for firewood, and timber, and the construction of mariculture ponds. The conversion of
mangrove swamps into capitalintensive brackish-water fishponds is considered the more controversial
issue in mangrove ecosystem management. Mangrove areas are still decreasing, although at a much
slower rate than in the 1980s. In the 1990s, the rate of mangrove depletion was less than 3000 ha/year
or about 3%, while in the early 2000s, mangrove loss has been minimal due mainly to legal prohibition
of mangrove cutting. The total mangrove areas of the country hovered around 100,000 ha in 2004
(DENR-EMB 2004). Fisheries. Fisheries comprise a major component of the agricultural sector, providing
a main source of food for the population, and contributing to the national income, employment and
export earnings. Close to 1.5 million workers were employed in the fishery sector in 2003: 26% in
aquaculture, 68% in municipal fishery, and 6% in commercial fishery. Table 4. Pasture area in relation to
the total grasslands area, Philippines, 1972 –2004 Year Grassland Pasture Area (million ha) Area Percent
(million ha) 1988 1.82 0.465 26 1995 1.50 0.227 15 1996 1.45 0.220 15 1999 1.20 0.153 13 2004 0.90
0.113 13 Note: a Percentage is in relation to the grassland area. Sources: ERDB 1995; FAO website 2005.
Aquatic Farming Systems: Coastal and Freshwater (Including Groundwater) The water resources of the
Philippines include inland freshwater (rivers, lakes, and groundwater), and marine (bay, coastal, and
oceanic waters). Overall, there is sufficient water but not enough in highly populated areas, especially
during the dry season. Coastal. The coastal ecosystems of the Philippines are some of the most
productive and biologically diverse in the world. The interdependence between the economic system
and such coastal and marine resources as fisheries, 74 Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development,
Vol. 2, Nos. 1&2 Fishery-related livelihood includes fish distribution and marketing, fish processing (like
fish canning), operation of ice plants and cold storages, and other allied industries such as net making,
boat building, and boat engine motor sales and repairs. The fisheries sector is classified as municipal,
commercial and aquaculture. Aquaculture. Aquaculture fishery includes fishing operations involving all
forms of farming fish and other fishery species in fresh, brackish, and marine water areas. For example,
in mariculture, finfish, crustaceans, mollusks, and seaweeds are reared in the tidal and intertidal areas
along the shorelines. Cages and pens are stocked with groupers and seabass. Wood and bamboos are
used for the attachment of spats of mussels and oysters. In seaweed culture, floating or sinking nets and
lines are used as culture attachments. Environmental problems have also cropped up with aquaculture
as a farming system. In some cases, aquaculture competes with catch fisheries, in terms of space, and
obstructs water transportation. Pen and cage culture obstructs or slows down the free flow of currents,
thus, promoting a rapid rate of siltation. Unconsumed feeds in the pens and cages pollute the
surroundings, thus triggering eutrophication that ultimately results in fishkills. Freshwater Ecosystem.
The main sources of pollution in the freshwater systems are domestic sewage, and garbage and wastes
from industry, agriculture, mining, and land development projects. As mentioned above, chemical
residues from agricultural activities find their way to the river systems, thereby adversely affecting the
water ecology, which ultimately affects human health. When heavy deposits of suspended sediments or
silt flow into rivers and lakes, the rate of shallowing is hastened. Sunlight may fail to reach deeper into
the water, to the detriment of photosynthezing aquatic flora, thus, adversely affecting the fishery
productivity. Groundwater is replenished or recharged by rain and seepage from rivers. The recharge or
extraction potential is estimated at 20,200 million cubic meters (mcm) per year. Groundwater
contributes 14% of the total water resource potential of the Philippines. Region X has the lowest
potential source of groundwater compared to its surface water potential, while Regions I and VII have
the highest potential. Ground water is used for drinking by about 50% of the people in the country. A
high percentage (86%) of piped-water system uses groundwater as a source. Based on the water rights
granted by the National Water Resources Board (NWRB) since 2002, about 60% of the groundwater
extraction is without water-right permits, resulting in indiscriminate withdrawal. In terms of sectoral
demand, agriculture has a high demand of 85%, while industry and domestic uses have a combined
demand of only 15%. Pollution of groundwater may come from domestic wastewater, agricultural
runoffs, and industrial effluents. This occurs when contaminants reach the aquifer or water table in the
form of leachate. Domestic wastewater is the main contributor of bacterial contamination to the
groundwater supplies. The presence of coliform bacteria in drinking water supplies can cause water-
borne diseases such as diarrhea, cholera, dysentery, hepatitis A, and others. Another problem is saline
water intrusion, which is caused by over-exploitation or excessive withdrawal of groundwater. This
reduces water availability for domestic usage, including drinking and agricultural use. POLICY RESPONSE
TO ADDRESS ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS IN THE AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES SECTOR Environmental
concerns are firmly based on the country’s political agenda and are reflected in the changing policies of
the government. The administration and management of the environment and natural resources has
been bureaucratically centralized and vested to certain national government agencies. Two lead
agencies, the DENR and the Department of Agriculture (DA), have been mandated to ensure the
sustainable use of resources through proper management, protection, and rehabilitation of degraded
coastal and marine environments. The management of Philippine environment encompasses both
preventive and proactive approaches; it involves government and nongovernment institutions as well as
communities that support various ecological and conservation restoration programs. The formulation of
a Nicomedes D. Briones 75 national plan of action for sustainability began as early as 1989 with the
adoption of the Philippine Strategy for Sustainable Development. Taking into consideration global action
plans in the UNCED’s Agenda 21, the Philippine National Action Plan for Sustainable Development was
formulated. This plan provides a framework for the action aimed towards achieving the goal of
sustainable development (Briones 1999). T h e A g r i c u l t u r e a n d F i s h e r i e s Modernization Act
(AFMA) of 1997 is “an act prescribing urgent related measures to modernize the agriculture and
fisheries sectors of the country in order to enhance their profitability, and prepare said sectors for the
challenges of globalization through an adequate, focused, and rational delivery of necessary support
services, appropriating funds therefore and for other purposes” (DA 1999). An outstanding feature of
AFMA in relation to environmental sustainability is the identification and delineation of the Network of
Protected Areas for Agriculture and Agro-Industrial Development (NPAAAD) and the Strategic
Agriculture and Fishery Development Zones (SAFDZ). The NPAAAD and SAFDZ “shall serve as basis for
the proper planning and strategic agriculture and fishery development and in the identification of
suitable crops, livestock, and fishes that can be economically grown and commercially developed for
local and international markets, without irreversible environmental and human health problems.” AFMA
requires that all lands suitable for the economic and commercial development of agriculture and fishery
be identified, set aside, and protected from unwarranted future conversion from other competing uses.
There are four types of lands that need to be identified for agriculture and fishery modernization and
protected from unlawful land use conversion (DA 1999; Elazegui 1999): a) the Network of Protected
Areas for Agriculture and Agro-Industrial Development (NPAAAD) – referring to privately-owned lands
identified from the alienable and disposable lands; b) the Strategic Agriculture and Fishery Development
Zone (SAFDZ); c) the Model Farms – identified from SAFDZ; and d) the Watershed Areas, identified in
coordination with DENR. AFMA is hoped to transform the Philippine agricultural landscape but as of
now, its meager budget is inadequate for its full implementation. What can be considered a concrete
accomplishment though is that the country has already put in place the legal and administrative
framework to insure environmental sustainability in relation to agricultural practices. The Fisheries Code
of 1998 promotes an integrated and community-based management approach to fisheries
management. Its implementation requires devolving to various local government units the production of
individualized ordinances for each municipality, which provide for the development, management and
conservation of the fisheries and aquatic resources, and integrating all pertinent laws. The Code
significantly addresses the “utilization” of fisheries and aquatic resources through the following state
policies: • Achieving food security as the overriding consideration of fisheries; • Limiting access to
fishery resources to citizens of the Philippines; • Rationale and sustainable development of fishery
resources; • Protection of the rights of fisherfolk and giving priority to municipal fisherfolk in the
exploitation of municipal waters; • Provision of support to the fisheries sector through research,
financing, infrastructure, and marketing assistance; • Granting the private sector the privilege of utilizing
the fishery resources. The Code affirms the full jurisdiction of the local government units over waters up
to 15 kilometers from the shoreline as provided for by the Local Government Code in 1991. It is in these
shorelines that the bulk of the marine resources lies; a considerable fraction of the country’s population
relies on these resources for livelihood. Biodiversity conservation in the Philippines is embodied in the
National Integrated Protected Area System (NIPAS) Act of 1992. Most of the job of safeguarding the
country’s biodiversity 76 Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Vol. 2, Nos. 1&2 will be
achieved by the development of protected habitats selected to protect viable examples of all major
ecosystems and hence conserve populations of most of the country’s living species. The NIPAS Law is
focused on the delineation and creation of protected areas. However, protected area (PA) establishment
raises concerns about ecosystem representation, size, community participation, and management
effectiveness (World Resources Institute 1994). In the Philippine setting, the issue on PA is at times more
a political rather than an ecological concern. As such, community participation and management
effectiveness are at stake. The extent of the participation and involvement of the community in the
process of NIPAS implementation is yet unresolved. A more basic issue is whether the community is
indeed given the avenue to express how they want to manage the area. CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATIONS To respond to the urgent needs of a burgeoning population, while tackling the
problems spawned by increasing poverty, fiscal deficits, and globalization realities, the Philippine
agricultural sector, in general, has embraced the tenets of modern or conventional agricultural
practices. For most Filipino farmers (from the smallscale rice farmers or ornamental plant growers, to
the large-scale banana plantation operators), the intensive use of chemical inputs and improved crop
varieties has become a common practice. However, there is a growing awareness on the unsustainability
of many existing agricultural practices because of their inevitable environmental costs that threaten the
livelihood source of these farmers. Although there are policy initiatives (such as AFMA and the Fisheries
Code) that are being done to make Philippine agriculture more responsive to environmental concerns,
there are difficulties in operationalizing such policies on the ground. The difficulty stems from the lack of
resources and political will to implement the needed changes, coupled with the basic orientation of
communities to favor livelihood activities over environmental protection. The transformation of the
country’s farming systems requires a land- or resource-use planning approach and the formulation of
explicit goals for alternative land uses. Planning is also necessary to define incentives for sustainable
use, and to promote changes of attitude and values toward improved land options. The constant
pressure on forestry and fishery resources is an example of how weak policy planning implementation
can lead to the indiscriminate use of common-property natural resources. The framework within which
agricultural production can increase without leading to widespread environmental damage should have
at least four elements:

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

To respond to the urgent needs of a burgeoning population, while tackling the problems spawned by
increasing poverty, fiscal deficits, and globalization realities, the Philippine agricultural sector, in general,
has embraced the tenets of modern or conventional agricultural practices. For most Filipino farmers
(from the smallscale rice farmers or ornamental plant growers, to the large-scale banana plantation
operators), the intensive use of chemical inputs and improved crop varieties has become a common
practice. However, there is a growing awareness on the unsustainability of many existing agricultural
practices because of their inevitable environmental costs that threaten the livelihood source of these
farmers. Although there are policy initiatives (such as AFMA and the Fisheries Code) that are being done
to make Philippine agriculture more responsive to environmental concerns, there are difficulties in
operationalizing such policies on the ground. The difficulty stems from the lack of resources and political
will to implement the needed changes, coupled with the basic orientation of communities to favor
livelihood activities over environmental protection. The transformation of the country’s farming systems
requires a land- or resource-use planning approach and the formulation of explicit goals for alternative
land uses. Planning is also necessary to define incentives for sustainable use, and to promote changes of
attitude and values toward improved land options. The constant pressure on forestry and fishery
resources is an example of how weak policy planning implementation can lead to the indiscriminate use
of common-property natural resources. The framework within which agricultural production can
increase without leading to widespread environmental damage should have at least four elements: •
Initiation of dynamic, community-based, and participatory land-use planning processes that identify and
mitigate the risks of natural resource degradation and other adverse environmental impacts; •
Socioeconomic support to improve the capacity of farmers and fisherfolk in poorer areas to manage
efficiently their resources through holistic management systems, hand in hand with the equitable
distribution of productive resources, access to capital, and employment opportunities; • Greater
investment in human capital and rural infrastructure, including the improved use of information and
communication technology, and training and empowering municipal agricultural workers to work with
farmers and fisherfolk in applying environmentally sound production methods; and • Ongoing
assessment, monitoring, and evaluation of environmental impacts in all segments of the food
production chain through information management, decision-support systems, indicators of
sustainability, and geographic referencing of information (especially by linking agro-ecological zone
characteristics to district and national planning units.) All in all, what is really needed is to have
adequate safeguards to ensure that the agricultural technology is applied in the least damaging, most
environmentally sustainable way. Such safeguards Nicomedes D. Briones 77 may include appropriate
and environmentallyfriendly technologies (e.g., integrated pest management, agroforestry). As such, a
responsive Philippine agriculture in the context of the emerging global environment must be anchored
on the following concerns: efficiency and growth, for increased productivity and competitiveness;
equity, wherein the benefits of growth must be equitably shared; sustainability, which means that
growth and equity must not be viewed only across income groups but also between generations, and;
environmental integrity, to insure that the production bases are protected and managed. Environmental
integrity emphasizes that development should be promoted and carried out in ways that are not
destructive to the natural resource base. The preservation of agricultural ecosystems must always be an
important consideration in areas where fisheries and agricultural development are carried out. This is to
ensure the long-term sustainability of the Philippine agricultural sector, in particular, and the
environment, in general.

References

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 Environmental Attitudes and Behaviors in the Philippines
Joseph Anthony L. Reyes
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University Email: reyes@cneas.tohoku.ac.jp
Novermber 2019

Doi:10.5901/jesr.2014.v4n6p87

Abstract

Data from the environment modules of the International Social Survey Programme in 1993, 2000, and
2010 were analyzed to explore attitudinal dimensions, trends and significant predictors of public and
private behavior in the Philippines. Factor analyses of attitude items indicate a consistent grouping of
negatively connoted perceptions towards nature and science in the three datasets. A series of OLS and
logistic regressions were conducted to determine significant predictors of attitudes and behaviors.
Perceptions of specific environmental problems and fatalism were consistent significant predictors of
negative attitudes. No significant increases were found in environmental behaviors among Filipinos over
the past two decades, with Jonckheere’s test indicating a significant decreasing trend. Educational
attainment was the only consistently significant indicator for behaviors such as driving less, signing
petitions, donating money, joining groups, and participating in public protests for the environment.
These findings provide an understanding of Filipino attitudes towards science and nature, and
improvements in behavior may be achieved with further integration of environmental education, and
promotion to educated people to specifically engage in new forms of environmental behaviors. The
implications of these results are discussed, along with opportunities for future research.

Keywords: Environmental attitudes, environmental behavior, Philippine environmentalism

1. Introduction
This paper examines environmental attitudes and behaviors among Filipinos utilizing
International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) data on the Philippines within the last two
decades. The paper begins with the discussion of the background and context of Philippine
environmentalism drawn from previous literature, followed by the objectives of the study. It
then presents results of factor analysis on public attitudes pertaining to science and nature and
its consistent dimension. The Negativity factor is then examined through a series of Ordinary
Least-Squares regressions with other substantive survey and demographic control variables.
Logistic regression is then performed to investigate significant predictors on the prevalence of
public and private environmental behaviors. The last section discusses the implications of the
findings and conclusions of the study.

1.1 Background
The Philippines is an archipelagic country located in Southeast Asia, with over 7,000 islands, and
a total area of about 300,000 km2. Geography, terrain, and climate determine human
settlement patterns, socioeconomic opportunities and constraints, and their intricate
relationship with environment and natural resources (ENR) conditions (ADB, 2009, p.3). The
country is considered as a developing nation, mainly rural engaging in agriculture activity with
pockets of massive urbanization (Kong, Poh Ai, Gusti Tisna, Remorin, Suwannatachote, & Lee,
2000, p. 114). Filipinos traditionally come from agrarian societies and can be categorized into
three groups in terms of religion: Christian lowlanders that make up 90% of the population,
Muslims making up 5% reside mostly in the southern area of Mindanao, while the rest can be
considered as native animists dispersed all throughout the countryside. Similar to other
countries in Southeast Asia, a degree of animism also infuses the practices of world religions in
the Philippines. As such, the Philippines may still be perceived a predominantly rural society
with values rooted in a long history of peasantry that should be considered in understanding its
traditional values (Kong et al., 2000, p. 123). Being situated along the “Typhoon Belt” in the
Pacific and the “Pacific Ring of Fire”, The Philippines is vulnerable to natural disasters, primarily
typhoons, floods, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. About 20-30 typhoons hit the country
annually between June and November such as the devastating tropical storm Ondoy (Ketsana)
in 2009 and tropical cyclone Yolanda (Haian) in 2013. In addition, 22 volcanoes are active in the
country, and several destructive ISSN 2239-978X ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of Educational and
Social Research MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4 No.6 September 2014 88 eruptions and
earthquakes have occurred in recent years (ADB, 2009, p.3). These natural calamities damage
crops and properties, displace people, and claim thousands of lives. Conditions such as these
can contribute to essentially two sets of problems recurring in South East Asian countries,
confronted by those in rural and urban areas: The inability of the agricultural sector to provide
sufficiently for the livelihood of the rural dwellers; while at the same time, vulnerability and
displacement due to natural disasters in rural areas and the increasing rate of land conversion
from agricultural to industrial leading to a rapid increase in rural-urban migration. Such
unplanned urban explosion place tremendous stress on the environment, manifesting as
extreme congestion, air, water, and land pollution, and sewage and rubbish disposal problems
(Kong et al., 2000, p. 117). One such example is the Payatas Dumpsite in Manila, with garbage
accumulating rapidly as the city generates daily ‘about 4000 metric tons of solid waste, where
only a portion collected with the rest dumped into waterways or burned, creating health and
aesthetic problems’ (Kong et al., 2000, p. 114) and had also claimed the lives of hundreds in a
landslide of junk in July 2000. As for the countryside, problems include: Degradation of
forestland, loss of watershed integrity, inappropriate and unsustainable land use and
agricultural practices in upland areas, degradation of near shore coastal areas due to
sedimentation from upstream sources, overexploitation of fisheries and permanent loss of
coastal ecosystems from changes in land use due to urbanization and industrialization (ADB,
2009, p. xiv-xv).

Moreover, structural causes of vulnerability found in the Philippines' historico-cultural heritage,

political-economy, and difficult access to resources connect with each other and interact as a
system, resulting in interconnected situations of insecurity. It is difficult to dissociate present-
day political economy context and the access to resources from their historical heritage.
Whereas limited access to resources constrain economic development and further widens the
gap between social classes induced by the political system (Gaillard et al., 2005, pp. 59-61).

Thus, a sense of human powerlessness and fatalism in the face of the divinely inspired wrath of
nature can be found in Philippine society (Bankoff, 2004, p.95). Filipinos display a range of
traditional and cultural coping mechanisms, principal among these practices are often conveyed
in the expression "bahala na". However, beyond the literal translation of “leave it to fate”, this
phrase indicates a form of reasoning where behavior is determined in terms of the discourse of
science and the calculation of probabilities and also provides "a formidable armor against the
suffering brought by disasters rather than a simple fatalistic attitude" (Bankoff, 2004, pp.103-
104).

1.2 Environmentalism in the Philippines

The history of contemporary environmentalism in the Philippines can be characterized as a
struggle for equity, its advocates linking the fight for environmental protection with the effort
to democratize access to natural resources (Magno, 1993, p.7). Herein, small local communities
attempt to recover the environment from gigantic private commercial interests, emphasizing
the role of indigenous and community-based models of resource management to pursue a new
development agenda (p.8).

It was in the adverse conditions of martial law during the 1970s and 1980s that the proliferation
of NonGovernmental Organizations (NGOs) transpired, in a political context of authoritarian
rule, with government operating as the machinery controlling or oppressing the population and
enriching power holders, rather than an institution encouraging political participation and
delivering basic services. NGOs became alternative avenues for engaging in participatory
processes and for implementing livelihood projects. Environmental groups and coalitions were
organized to protest state-sponsored, foreign-funded, and pollution-causing development
projects such as the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant, the Kawasaki Sintering Plant in Cagayan De
Oro, and the Copper Smelter Plant in Batangas (p. 12).

The sentiment of the time were aptly expressed in the First Philippine Environmental Congress
in 1979, with the attempts towards coordination of environmental organizations, leading to the
passage of a "Declaration of Environmental Concern" stating that "at the root of environmental
problems are social, economic, and political systems imposed upon this nation which allowed
greed and exploitation to predominate over a proper respect for the well-being of present and
future generations" (p.13).

The political landscape of the Philippines had changed drastically and become more vibrant
since then, by the year 2000 there were over 45,000 registered NGOs with just as many
people's organizations (Kong et al., 2000, p. 131). However, many environmental NGOs still
remain true to their grass-root approaches even after the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution,
offering support to tribal groups in their effort to maintain the integrity of their ecosystem, and
lobbying for the adoption by the state of indigenous resource-use practices (Magno, 1993, p.
11).

Besides the NGOs, other sectors have participated in environmentalism. Large corporations in
the Philippines whether by law or voluntarily, had started developing innovative technologies
and techniques to manage the waste they ISSN 2239-978X ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of
Educational and Social Research MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4 No.6 September 2014 89
produce (Kong et al., 2000, p. 131). The environmental movement was also supported by the
church and community action. During the 1990s, in place of human rights activism, the new
environmental activism by the church had attracted dangers to its practitioners in the field
because of the threat they pose to established interests (Magno, 1993, p. 15). Those involved
with church movements perceived ecological destruction as an attack on the natural world
benefiting only a few, and rapidly wilting away at the very base of the living world and
endangering its fruitfulness for future generations (p. 14). Basic Christian communities (BCCs)
emphasized collective reflections on the sources of social deprivation, considering the effects of
environmental destruction on their means of livelihood. Within such configurations of
environmental advocacy, local communities had decided to fight for the forests because it
meant saving their lives (Magno, 1993, p.16).

In its attempts to address these environmental concerns, the Philippine government had
committed itself to environmental protection and natural resource management expressed
through a comprehensive legal and regulatory regime. ENR management is mandated by the
Philippine Environmental Policy and the Philippine Environment Code (Presidential Decree No.
1151, 1152, s. 1977),

The Philippine Strategy for Sustainable Development of 1989, Executive Order No. 15 in 1992
that created the Philippine Council for Sustainable Development (PCSD) and the National Action
Plan for Sustainable Development of 1996. The Local Government Code of 1991 also contains
provisions related to devolution and implementation of ENR laws and regulations. Major ENR
laws signed in the past 7 years include the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000, the
Wildlife Resources Conservation and Protection Act of 2001, the Public Land Act of 2002, the
Philippine Clean Water Act of 2004, and the Bio-fuels Act of 2006. Priorities of the Department
of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) relate to major government planning
frameworks including the country’s Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan and the
Millennium Development Goals (ADB, 2009, p. xv). Of particular relevance for this study is the
institutionalization of the Philippine Economic Environmental and Natural Resources Accounting
(PEENRA) System in 1997, pursuant to Executive Order No. 406, allowing the creation of units
within the organizational structure of three relevant governmental organizations, that are
tasked to generate macroindicators that reflect the relationships and interactions between
economy and the natural resources, and the establishment of a reliable data base on social
valuation estimates of environmental services (p. xvi).

The Philippines recognizing the importance of international cooperation in achieving its national
development goals, had signed international and regional agreements on biodiversity,
hazardous chemicals and wastes, ozonedepleting substances, persistent organic pollutants, and
climate change (p. xvi). However, even with international arrangements and assistance,
challenges persist. Despite the existence of the Philippine Council for Sustainable Development,
the first body in Asia to be established following the Rio Earth Summit's proposal to set up a
Commission on Sustainable Development, and institutional acceptance of ecological security, as
embodied in the Convention on International Trade for Endangered Species (CITES), taking
precedence over trade agreements in the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT),
significant environmental problems still remain (Kong et al., 2000, p. 129).

1.3 Environmental education

Similar to other Southeast Asian countries, environmental education in the Philippines has
been incorporated into curriculum as part of other subjects such as science, social studies,
geography, civics, and moral education, rather than a distinctly separate subject. There is also a
pronounced environmental educational plan in the Philippines. Initiated in 1989, a National
Strategy on Environmental Education (NSEE) aims to develop an environmentally literate and
responsible citizenry that would ensure the protection and improvement of the country’s
environment in order to promote and implement sustainability, social equity, and economic
efficiency in the use of its natural resources (Kong et al., 2000, p. 129). The mandates for
sustainable development in education were strengthened with the release of the National
Environmental Education Action Plan for Sustainable Development for 2005 to 2014, specifically
prepared to coincide with the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (Didham &
Ofei-Manu, 2012).

In addition to state-led efforts, two national networks for environmental education: the
Environmental Education Network of the Philippines, Inc. (EENP) and the Philippine Association
of Tertiary Level Educational Institutions in Environmental Protection and Management
(PATLEPAM), advocates for the integration of sustainable development in school curricula as
well as in campus administration and organizational culture. Significant developments in
environmental education for sustainable development (EESD) include the creation of
undergraduate and graduate degree programs with an environmental focus that are now
offered by many academic institutions, and training programs offered by both government
agencies and individual institutions. For instance, the Dark Green School program of the EENP
has the objective of producing citizens through college systems, who are coherently directed
towards EESD and ISSN 2239-978X ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of Educational and Social Research
MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4 No.6 September 2014 90 offer a distinctive “whole
institution” approach and accreditation system devised in line with the principles of EESD for
coherent systemic change and accelerate the “greening” of the academy (Galang, 2010, pp.
174-176). With the historical and contextual background of Philippine environmentalism in
mind, this paper now turns toward understanding the Filipino public, to explore how attitudinal
and other substantial variables at the individual level can be interpreted and related to
environmentally significant behaviors.

1.4 Environmental Attitudes

By the 1970s, people in many parts of the world had already started questioning the basic
beliefs in the Dominant Social Paradigm (DSP) that espoused progress, technology, materialism,
development and separation of humans from nature (Pirages & Ehrlich, 1974, pp. 44–47). In
contrast to this, Dunlap and Van Liere’s (1978) New Environmental Paradigm highlighted
themes concerning the existence of ecological limits to growth, maintaining the delicate
balance of nature, and the rejection of anthropocentric views towards nature’s being primarily
for human use. Moreover, the NEP took account of the wider view of the relationship between
modern societies and the environment with its scale acting as a measure of proposed shift in
people’s worldviews (Van Petegem & Blieck, 2006, p.625). Early environmental discourse and
interpretations of socio-environmental system interactions had been influenced by the
dichotomy.

Previous literature that utilized ISSP surveys such as Aoyagi-Usui (1999, p.125) and Reyes (2013)
classified corresponding questions on “attitudes towards science and nature” as expressing
either Dominant Social Paradigm (DSP) or New Environmental Paradigm (NEP) ideas (refer to
appendix). Among the fourteen questions utilized in prior research, eight were available in the
ISSP 1993, 2000, and 2010 modules, while six were found in the analysis to be grouped
consistently, which were then subsequently utilized in this paper to represent the public
environmental attitudes of Filipinos. Other studies had also analyzed these attitudinal items
using factor analyses (Aoyagi-Usui, Vinken, & Kuribayashi, 2003; Corral-Verdugo, Carrus,
Bonnes, Moser, & Sinha, 2008; Van Petegem & Blieck, 2006) to find underlying dimensions,
these are also often combined with willingness and efficacy variables and considered as
“Environmental concern”. Franzen and Meyer (2010) operationalized concern with other
substantial variables such as postmaterialism, specific dangers, environmental knowledge and
demographics as predictors. Environmental Concern is similarly used by Carriere & Scruggs
(2001) in their study empirically relating attitudes to egalitarian, individualist, hierarchist, and
fatalistic cultural biases. Moreover, Guagnano, Stern, and Dietz (1995) had proposed an
AttitudeBehavior-Context interactive model that found relationships between external and
internal influences on behavior change in curbside recycling.

1.5 Environmentally significant Behavior

In the three ISSP surveys, there were six recurring items for respondents’ self-reported
behaviors: Sorting recyclables, driving automobiles less for the environment, signing petitions,
donating money, membership to environmental groups, and participation in public protest
demonstrations within the last five years. Studying these variables provides a better
understanding of who does and who does not engage in environmentally-oriented behaviors
within particular national contexts (Hunter, Hatch, & Johnson, 2004, p. 681). Several
multinational and focused studies (Hadler & Haller 2011, 2013; Kelly, Kennedy, Faughnan, &
Tovey, 2003) had classified the first two as belonging to private sphere behaviors, while the
remaining four as part of the public sphere, covering both activism and non-activists’ behavior.
Previous research had also found gender distinctions with regard to some environmental
behaviors within most of a cross-national analysis of 22 countries, particularly gender
differences in the level of private environmental behaviors seemingly more consistent within
nations at the upper end of the wealth distribution (Hunter et al., 2004).

Aside from analyzing indicators of the different types of individual environmental behavior, the
distinction between public and private, allows a general understanding of trends that may be of
significance to environmentalism. Overall, Hadler and Haller (2013) had observed three trends
that have occurred across 16 countries that participated in the ISSP: First, a homogenization in
both public and private behaviors; Second, increasing prosperity, increasing international ties,
and better political opportunity structures can have negative effects to behaviors; and third, the
growing gap between the two behaviors seem to indicate a shift from public to private
environmental behaviors. Other researchers (such as Aoyagi-Usui, et al., 2003; Corral-Verdugo,
et al., 2008) using varied datasets had also found significant relationships between behavior
with latent dimensions of environmental attitudes and values, together discovering similar
patterns among certain countries. Interestingly, though existing literature had measured and
determined significant predictors of environmental ISSN 2239-978X ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of
Educational and Social Research MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4 No.6 September 2014 91
attitudes and behavior in many countries and contexts, very few had found significant
indicators for Philippine samples that would be similar to those present in samples from
 developed nations, or even consistent factors when sampling different parts of the country. At
the time of this writing, there have been very few environmental surveys in the Philippines that
had a comparable number of respondents, coverage, and extent of surveying as the ISSP, the
World Values Survey, for instance, contained Philippine data for 1995 and 2000, but only had a
handful of variables measuring environmental perspectives and behavioral intentions.
Moreover, no study has ever conducted detailed empirical analysis of ISSP data for
environmental attitudes and behavior specifically for the Philippines, despite the fact that it has
been part of the ISSP surveys for over 20 years and the only Asian developing country that
participated for all three environmental surveys. Hence, this study may provide potential
academic and applied contributions that have yet to be explored.

2. Objectives of the Study This paper investigates environmental attitudes and behavior in the
Philippines. At the outset, given the limitation of substantial variables that are consistently
available for three ISSP surveys, it will determine recurring environmental attitude dimensions,
and subsequently relate these to other significant determinants of private and public behavior.
The analysis specifically addresses the following research questions:

1. How has the prevalence environmental behavior among Filipinos changed over the past two
decades? 2. What are the structures of environmental attitudes in the Philippines?

2a. What is the relationship between environmental attitudes and other values?

2b. What are the factors contributing to environmental behavior among Filipinos? Finally, the
study also aims towards an understanding of attitudinal and behavioral changes across time,
education, and future implications.

2. Data
Analyses are based on data from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) from the
years 1993, 2000, and 2010. The ISSP is a continuing annual program of cross-national
collaboration on surveys of currently 48 member countries, covering topics important for social
science research and developing annual surveys focused on a single topic (see www.issp.org).
The ISSP employs a questionnaire method on highly representative national random samples.
The standard sampling procedure is a stratified, multistage random sample considering region,
household and persons within the household. The three ISSP environment modules measure
attitudes to environmental protection and preferred governmental approaches. The target
populations for the Philippine subsamples were adults, with ages ranging from 18 to 91 years
old. The sample size in each of the three surveys used is 1200 with equal number of female and
male respondents. ISSP datasets, questionnaires, and relevant material are provided by the
Zentralarchiv für Empirische Sozialforschung, University of Cologne and can be found at the
GESIS Data Archive (http://zacat.gesis.org/). Surveys in the Philippines were done by the Social
Weather Stations (SWS), a private and independent academic institute that conduct survey
research on topics of public interest for governmental, public and private organizations. Its
national surveys are conducted in Tagalog, Ilocano, Bikol, Cebuano, and Ilonggo; with every
questionnaire bilingual using English as the second language. For the ISSP environment surveys,
fieldwork was conducted in 1993,2000, and 2009/2010, the first two surveys in 1993 and 2000
had Tagalog questionnaires, while the 2010 survey also had Bicolano, Cebuano, Hiligaynon,
Iluko, Maranao, and Waray versions (http://www.gesis.org/en/issp/issp-modules-
 profiles/environment/). Original data from the Philippine data are archived in the SWS Survey
Data Bank that contains time series data on general social and political concerns in the country.

Among the three Philippine subsamples from the ISSP surveys, relatively consistent topics
covered were: 1) "Attitudes towards science and nature", 2) "Dangers of Specific Environmental
Problems", 3) "Respondent's Behavior and Environmental Protection", 4) "Environmental
Efficacy", 5) "Environmental Policy and Locus of Control", 6) "Left-right Dimension", and 7)
Demographics. The item on postmaterialism was modified while questions for “Scientific and
Environmental Knowledge” also became optional in the 2010 survey; variables within the above-
mentioned topics present in all three modules and available in the Philippine surveys are
primarily utilized in the analyses. Additional descriptive information on the surveys and variables
used in this study can be found in the appendix. ISSN 2239-978X ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of
Educational and Social Research MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4 No.6 September 2014 92

3. Investigation Results and Analysis 4.1 Prevalence of private and public environmental behaviors
among Filipinos For the private behaviors of sorting recyclables and driving less for the
environment, Kruskal-Wallis tests revealed statistically significant differences (H(2)=308.205, p
ses also did not provide significant results in both private and public behaviors, this underscores
the necessity to shift focus from perceived economic or actual income variables towards the
more consistent variable of education as an indicator of environmental concern and behaviors
(Franzen & Meyer, 2010; Franzen & Vogl, 2013; Hadler & Haller, 2011). ISSN 2239-978X ISSN
2240-0524 Journal of Educational and Social Research MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4 No.6
September 2014 97 5.
Discussion and Conclusions
Environmental attitudes in the Philippines were found to be comprised of negative statements
that express both anthropocentric and ecocentric perspectives, this can be interpreted as a
reflection of Philippine environmentalism at the individual level. These attitudes were perhaps
tempered by decades and generations of environmentalists conveying environmental problems
as being integrated within issues of equity, livelihood, and fighting oppression. Viewed within
the history and context of Philippine environmentalism, considering the compounded physical
realities of natural disasters such as typhoons, droughts, and floodings that claim lives, destroys
livelihoods and displaces people, together with manmade problems that cause socio-economic
inequities wrought by self-serving or ineffectual institutions that stymied their welfare (Bankoff,
2004; Gaillard et al., 2005), it is understandable why Filipinos developed hardened, fatalistic,
and pessimistic attitudes towards their relationship with the environment.
These can be further inferred from the results of this study with the consistently significant
predictors of the Filipino attitudes being perceptions of ‘the dangers of specific environmental
problems’ and fatalism.
These results partly answer the question raised by Aoyagi et al. pertaining to their Manila
sample, as to whether there ‘might not yet be distinct environmental awareness or clear
recognition of an association between progress and environmental destruction’ (2003, p. 28-29).
This relationship may also shed light as to why demographic variables and even education could
not be collectively related to attitudes in a consistent significant manner, as Filipino
environmentalists had ‘emphasized on community action and with it being firmly rooted in
specific topography’(Magno, 1993, p.17) addressing particular needs, specific dangers, and
environmental problems. The results show that no significant increases can be found in the
prevalence of both public and private behaviors. This becomes interesting as the country has
supposedly improved environmental conditions in air and water quality, increased institutional
capacities, better social and economic indicators (ADB, 2009, pp. 3-10; DENR, 2008), together
with environmentalism in the country supposedly becoming more dynamic and multi-faceted
for the past two decades (Kong 2000; Magno 1993). However, if the context that
environmentalists had framed and pursued is the constant struggle against oppressive forces,
would the Filipinos who now live in the more progressive and developed areas paradoxically
diminish in environmental concern? Conversely, for those living in areas still plagued with
environmental problems, can these Filipinos eventually suffer a sort of “ecological fatigue” that
would manifest in fatalistic or apathetic tendencies, if changes would not be perceived as
possible or effective? Would these then entail changes on how environmentalism in the country
should be promoted? Better predictive models in the future may become possible when
accounting for the local settings of respondents, especially for private behaviors that are more
strongly influenced by the national context, as significant effects were found in previous studies
with national affluence, political opportunity structures, and global ties on both public and
private environmental behaviors (Hadler & Haller, 2011, p.326-331). As Guagnano et al. (1995)
suggests based on their study on curbside recycling, ‘attitude theory needs to be modified to
include both the perception of external conditions and external conditions themselves’, to
analytically and practically assess their effects on behavioral changes (pp. 713- 716).
Notwithstanding, the Negativity attitudes in the Philippines seemed to only be significant in
group membership (negatively) and protest (positively); which may be considered as an
extension of fatalistic or bandwagon tendencies for joining groups when hopes are high, and
outward manifestation of frustration when participating in public protests. These complex
relationships may also be related to tendencies among South East Asian countries observed by
Kong et al. (2000) that people holding a particular attitude or belief does not necessarily amount
to them acting in a consistent manner (p.133).
Perhaps, future research may even be more successful when considering other forms of
environmental behavior that specifically relate to conservation, biodiversity, and other
ecological concerns. The ISSP in 2010 has for instance introduced new environmental behavior
variables that measure consumer preferences and may be able to show explicit concern on
pertinent issues such as animal rights and natural resources conservation.

Furthermore, future surveys should also explore the possibility of conducting country-specific
context variables in future surveys such as specific environmental knowledge, exposure and
forms of participation to ENGOs, perceptions on political opportunity structures and
vulnerability to natural disasters. As Aoyagi-Usui (1999) and Reyes (2013) have pointed out,
certain peoples may exhibit environmental attitudes that favor more traditional or local forms of
environmentalism, and together with available resources and local contexts may engage in
indigenous and ecologically low-impact practices that are not measured in current surveys that
contain more mainstream and western-oriented behaviors. In addition to looking at the
traditional ways, there is also value in exploring new forms of environmentally ISSN 2239-978X
ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of Educational and Social Research MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4
No.6 September 2014 98 significant behaviors such as online activism, forwarding SMS and E-
mail, Tweeting, Facebook liking, Selfies, hashtags, posting in forums, crowdsourcing, writing
congress, and other forms of electronic campaigning that ‘raise awareness or at least voice
concern’ (Thaler, Zelnio, Freitag, MacPherson, Shiffman, Bik, Goldstein, & McClain, 2012) may
open up new opportunities for environmentalism, particularly as engagement in the more
traditional notions of public behaviors were found to be decreasing over time in many countries
(Hadler & Haller, 2013), whilst private environmental behaviors had been found to be increasing
- implying a shift to patterns of engagement that is more self-selected, concrete, and
timelimited (p.488). Such private, convenient, and limited participation can eventually morph
into newer and creative forms of activism enabled by information and communication
technologies within social media platforms. For policy makers, ENGOs, and stakeholders, the
low cost of utilizing online facilities makes it affordable to expand their reach, and most social
media platforms are constructed with ease of use at the forefront of their design. Social media
can be one the most versatile tools in an environmentalist’s arsenal when used correctly and in
conjunction with a well nurtured network providing enormous return for low overhead (Thaler
et al., 2012) and at the same time target the more educated sectors of the country which are
also the most likely to engage in environmentally significant behavior: Especially for behaviors
such as driving less, signing petitions, donating money, joining environmental causes, and
participating in public protests that can be accomplished by individuals requiring very little
necessary infrastructure and governmental interventions. Information and communication
technology also allow those in government to know in real time and immediately assess the
sentiments of online environmentalists and influence on their constituents towards particular
environmental issues and concerns, in order to adjust platforms and policies accordingly.
As education is a consistent predictor of environmental behavior, aside from increasing literacy
and general education standards, improvement to the prevalence of environmentally significant
behavior may be achieved through augmentation of environmental education in the curriculum
of the primary and secondary levels; while for the postsecondary levels, it would be worthwhile
to explore and develop facilities that harness ecological predisposition such as the EENP’s “Dark
Green School” among others. It is also crucial to cultivate the knowledge and technical
proficiency of the educated environmentalists rather than solely focusing on their economic
status or capabilities: in order for future and other potential environmentalists to participate
more meaningfully, and for future studies to become more substantial in the understanding of
contemporary environmentalism especially in developing countries. References Aoyagi-Usui, M.
(1999).

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ISSN 2239-978X ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of Educational and Social Research MCSER Publishing,
Rome-Italy Vol. 4 No.6 September 2014 100 Appendix Table A1: Survey Characteristics ISSP 1993
ISSP 2000 ISSP 2010 Valid N % Valid N % Valid N % Philippine Sample 1200 1200 1200 Gender
Male 600 50.0% 600 50.0% 600 50.0% Female 600 50.0% 600 50.0% 600 50.0% Respondent's
Educational Level Pre-Secondary 344 29.1% 338 28.5% 170 17.1% Secondary 420 35.5% 479
40.4% 454 45.5% Post-Secondary 420 35.5% 370 31.2% 373 37.4% SWS Socio-Economic Class
(R's subjective self-placement) ABC (Middle to Upper classes) 239 19.9% 445 39.1% 373 31.2% D
(Lower Middle class) 825 68.8% 104 9.1% 423 35.4% E (Working class) 104 8.7% 185 16.3% 291
24.3% F (Lower class) 32 2.7% 404 35.5% 109 9.1% Place of Living Urban 750 62.5% 595 49.6%
623 52.5% Rural 450 37.5% 605 50.4% 563 47.5% Table A2: Variable descriptions (Items in
Tagalog for Philippine survey) Attitudes to Science and Nature (Bracketed items indicate DSP or
NEP categorization based on Aoyagi-Usui (1993) and Reyes (2013) How much do you agree or
disagree with each of these statements? Do you Strongly Agree, Agree, Neither Agree nor
Disagree, Disagree, Strongly Disagree, or Can’t Choose? (Gaano kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi
sumasang-ayon sa mga pangungusap na ito? Masasabi ba ninyo na kayo ay Talagang
Sumasangayon, Sumasang-ayon, Maaaring Sumasang-ayon/Maaaring Hindi, Hindi Sumasang-
ayon, Talagang Hindi Sumasang-ayon, o Hindi Makapili?) 1. We believe too often in science, and
not enough in feelings and faith [NEP] (Mas madalas tayo ay naniniwala agad sa siyensya/agham
at kulang sa damdamin at pananampalataya) 2. Overall, modern science does more harm than
good [NEP] (Sa pangkalahatan, ang makabagong siyensya/agham ay nagdudulot ng mas
maraming kapinsalaan kaysa kabutihan) 3. Modern science will solve our environmental
problems with little change to our way of life [DSP] (Malulutas ng makabagong siyensya/agham
ang mga problema natin sa kapaligiran na kaunti lamang ang mababago sa paraan ng ating
pamumuhay) 4. We worry too much about the future of the environment and not enough about
prices and jobs today [DSP] (Masyado tayong nag-aalala tungkol sa kinabukasan ng kapaligiran
at walang sapat na pag-aalala sa kasalukuyang presyo ng mga bilihin at trabaho) 5. Almost
everything we do in modern life harms the environment [NEP] (Lahat halos ng ginagawa natin sa
makabagong pamumuhay ay nakasasama sa kapaligiran) 6. People worry too much about
human progress harming the environment [DSP] ISSN 2239-978X ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of
Educational and Social Research MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4 No.6 September 2014 101
(Masyadong nag-aalala ang mga tao na sa kabila ng sangkatauhang pag-unlad, nasisira naman
ang kapaligiran) 7. In order to protect the environment, the Philippines needs economic growth
[DSP] (Upang mapangalagaan ang kapaligiran, kinakailangan ng pilipinas na paunlarin ang
ekonomiya) 8. Economic growth always harms the environment [NEP] (Ang pag-unlad ng
ekonomiya ay laging nakapipinsala sa kapaligiran) Willingness to Make Trade-Offs for the
Environment Very willing (Payag na payag), Fairly willing (Medyo payag), Neither willing nor
unwilling (Maaaring payag/maaaring hindi), Fairly unwilling (Medyo hindi payag), Very unwilling
(Hinding-hindi papayag), Can't choose (Hindi makapili) 1. How willing would you be to pay much
higher prices in order to protect the environment? (Gaano kayo pumapayag na magbayad ng
mas mataas na presyo upang mapangalagaan ang kapaligiran?) [Prices] 2. How willing would you
be to pay much higher taxes in order to protect the environment? (Gaano kayo pumapayag na
magbayad ng mas mataas na buwis upang mapangalagaan ang kapaligiran?) [Taxes] 3. How
willing would you be to accept cuts in your standard of living in order to protect the
environment? [Living] (Gaano naman kayo pumapayag na tanggapin ang kaunting pagbaba sa
antas ng inyong pamumuhay upang mapangalagaan ang kapaligiran?) Dangers of Specific
Environmental Problems Extremely dangerous (Lubhang napaka-mapanganib), Very dangerous
(Napaka-mapanganib), Somewhat dangerous (Medyo mapanganib), Not very dangerous (Hindi
gaanong mapanganib), Not dangerous at all (Talagang hindi mapanganib), Can't choose (hindi
makapili) 1. In general, do you think that air pollution caused by cars is for the environment? (Sa
pangkalahatan, sa palagay ba ninyo ang polusyon sa hangin na dulot ng mga sasakyan ay para sa
kapaligiran?) [AirPolCarEnv] 2. In general, do you think that air pollution caused by industry is
for the environment? (Sa pangkalahatan, sa palagay ba ninyo ang polusyon sa hangin na dulot
ng mga industriya ay para sa kapaligiran?) [AirPolIndEnv] 3. And do you think that pesticides and
chemicals used in farming is for the environment? (At sa palagay naman ba ninyo ang mga
pamatay-insekto at kemikal na ginagamit sa pagsasaka ay para sa kapaligiran?)[ PestFarmEnv] 4.
In general, do you think that a rise in the world's temperature caused by the ‘greenhouse
effect’is for the environment? (Sa pangkalahatan, sa palagay ba ninyo ang pagtaas ng
temperatura ng mundo na dulot ng ‘greenhouse effect’ o pag-init ng mundo ay para sa
kapaligiran?) [RiseWorldTemp] 5. And do you think that pollution of Philippine rivers, lakes and
streams is for the environment? (At sa palagay ba ninyo ang polusyon sa mga ilog, lawa at batis
dito sa Pilipinas ay para sa kapaligiran?) [PolLakeRivEnv] Environmental Efficacy ISSN 2239-978X
ISSN 2240-0524 Journal of Educational and Social Research MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol. 4
No.6 September 2014 102 How much do you agree or disagree with each of these statements?
Do you Strongly Agree, Agree, Neither Agree nor Disagree, Disagree, Strongly Disagree, or Can’t
Choose? (Gaano kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa mga pangungusap na ito?
Masasabi ba ninyo na kayo ay Talagang Sumasangayon, Sumasang-ayon.
 A Risk-Based Approach to Shelter Resilience following Flood and Typhoon Damage in Rural
Philippines

Victoria Stephenson 1,*, Andrew Finlayson 2 ID and Luisa Miranda Morel 3 1 Department of
Civil, Environment and Geomatic Engineering, London Global University, London WC1E 6BT, UK
2 British Geological Survey, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, UK; afin@bgs.ac.uk 3 CARE International UK,
London SE1 7TP, UK; mirandamorel@careinternational.org * Correspondence:
victoria.stephenson.12@ucl.ac.uk; Tel.: +44-(0)20-7679-7224 Received: 22 December 2017;
Accepted: 13 February 2018; Published: 22 February 2018

Abstract:

The Philippines is exposed to numerous typhoons every year, each of which poses a potential
threat to livelihoods, shelter, and in some cases life. Flooding caused by such events leads to
extensive damage to land and buildings, and the impact on rural communities can be severe.
The global community is calling for action to address and achieve disaster risk reduction for
communities and people exposed to such events. Achieving this requires an understanding of
the nature of the risks that flooding and typhoons pose to these communities and their homes.
This paper presents the findings from a field based case study assessment of three rural
settlements in the Philippines, where typhoons and associated flooding in recent years has
caused significant damage to houses and livelihoods, leading to the reconstruction of homes
that more often than not reproduce similar structural vulnerabilities as were there before these
hazards occurred. This work presents a methodology for risk assessment of such structures
profiling the flood and wind hazards and measuring physical vulnerability and the experience of
communities affected. The aim of the work is to demonstrate a method for identifying risks in
these communities, and seeks to address the challenge faced by practitioners of assisting
communities in rebuilding their homes in more resilient ways. The work set out here
contributes to the discussion about how best to enable practitioners and communities to
achieve the sought for risk reduction and especially highlights the role that geoscience and
engineering can have in achieving this ambition.

Keywords: flood; typhoon; shelter; rural; disaster; risk

1. Introduction

1.1. Background

On average, 20 typhoons affect the Philippines every year, ranging in severity from annually
recurring moderate events, up to extreme events such as the super-typhoon Haiyan (local name
Yolanda), which affected the country in November 2013 [1]. Typhoons bring high winds, heavy
rainfall, and flooding to the Philippines, causing damage to both land and property. In the case
of severe events such as Haiyan, the extent of damage and destruction is significant enough to
instigate an international aid response, as part of which International Non-Governmental
Organisations (INGOs) seek to assist in helping communities recover from the impacts of the
event.

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction [2] sets the current agenda of the global
community for reducing the risks from disasters and calls in its first priority area for greater
“understanding of disaster risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, and exposure of
persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment”. Calculation of risk requires
measurement of the vulnerability, hazard, and exposure components of the system [3], and
where losses to assets are being considered the physical interaction of the natural and man-
made environments typically lead to the computation of this risk. Disasters caused by natural
hazards often lead to far greater human and economic losses in low- and middle-income
countries such as the Philippines [4], where impactful disaster risk reduction measures are not
yet embedded or widely available to communities and people [5].

Rapid urbanisation in developing countries is generating a growing focus on understanding risk

and risk reduction within this context [6], with the effects of future urban expansion on disaster
risks to poor urban populations a particular concern [7,8]. Work focused on reducing risk in
developing urban environments calls for greater synthesis in the collection and use of hazard
and vulnerability data for calculating physical risk [9], with the role of geoscience in particular
growing [10]. Risk assessments incorporating measures of physical vulnerability to natural
hazards for rural and indigenous settlements in low and middle income countries are less
frequent. Despite this community and culture are acknowledged as important components of
understanding disaster risk manifestation [11], and the role of indigenous knowledge in
mitigating disaster risks is further appreciated [12].

In the case of typhoon events, which manifest as wind and flood hazards, the influence of
geomorphology on the characteristics of those hazards is significant. Alcantra-Ayala and Goudie
present a thorough review of the role of geomorphology in disasters caused by natural hazards,
including earthquakes, volcanoes, and floods [13]. Fluvial geomorphology is a direct driver of
flood hazard. Slater et al. [14] demonstrate that river channel capacity and surface roughness is
significant in contributing to flood hazard extent, whilst Yumul et al. [15] report that in the
Philippines in 2008, artificial damming of rivers by breaching of saturated ground caused
flooding from Typhoon Frank. A typhoon and its associated excessive rainfall can trigger
secondary hazards such as landslides, if the geomorphological conditions promote this [16],
whilst storm surges brought on by wind hazards such as in Typhoon Haiyan are being used to
measure the geomorphological impact of typhoons and subsequently gauge hazard severities
[17], providing an important reference for future risk assessments.

Flood hazard mapping in rural areas can be challenging due to lack of available high quality
data. For example, Sanyal and Lu [18] carried out an assessment of rural communities in West
Bengal and highlighted that tree cover in the settlement hindered the process of extracting
robust flood inundation information. Osti et al. [19] further explore the problem of quantifying
and predicting flood hazards from the perspective of flood hazard mapping in developing
countries, and importantly highlight the value of community based mapping in understanding
and mitigating flood risks in these contexts. Abon et al. [20] extend this to the development of
community-based flood monitoring leading to an early warning system for flooding in the
Philippines. More recently, the focus has been on highlighting the value of technological
advancements in assisting hazard mapping capabilities [21], and within the Philippines, satellite
imagery has been used to map both storm surge extent and associated building damage in the
Tacloban region, as a result of Typhoon Haiyan [22]. Ongoing work is using new high-resolution
topographic information in landslide susceptibility assessments [23] and in flood simulation
models that are used to inform flood hazard maps [24] and use predictive rainfall scenarios to
predict flood hazard [25].

Definitions of vulnerability differ widely depending on the entity being considered (human,
physical, system, etc.) and the nature of the hazard to which it is exposed [26]. Physical
vulnerability assessment in the context of flood and wind hazards can be carried out via a
number of different means including employing anecdotal loss data, indicator methods, or
more theoretical predictive strategies, as reviewed by Nasiri et al. [27] for flooding and Pita et
al. [28] for hurricanes. Typically, the assessor will choose the most appropriate and feasible
method for the given situation. In the context of a super-typhoon, where human loss is a
significant factor, the collection of loss or damage data is not a Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 3 of 24
priority in the post-disaster response. Likewise, the extent of destruction hinders the
development of statistical damage curves for physical loss in the built environment as so much
of the damage is total.

Work assessing typhoon vulnerability that applies damage assessment methods has focused on
engineered structures in the Philippines, although assessments have considered the multi-
hazard context of wind and flood. In the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan, Chen et al. [29] applied
a structural damage rating system to concrete framed structures in Tacloban to profile the
extent of damage across the site, concluding that wind was a more significant cause of damage
than flood. Hernandez et al. [30] carried out a damage survey in Leyte and Samar following
Haiyan on a range of buildings including timber, concrete, and steel. Here, it is reported that the
majority of non-engineered buildings surveyed suffered total collapse, whilst in engineered
buildings, much of the damage was to non-structural components.

Assessments of vulnerability to typhoons have been carried out for rural housing in other
countries such as India. A study by Goyal et al. [31] presented a hurricane vulnerability
assessment of traditional rural houses using pre-defined damage classification and a condition
assessment of the buildings incorporating construction quality and age. Meanwhile, Alam et al.
[32] undertook a detailed assessment using building geometry, construction and materials to
determine vulnerability in local bamboo structures in Bangladesh. Work looking at the
vulnerability of rural communities in the Philippines has taken holistic approaches that include
consideration of building condition and robustness. Campanero and Regaro [33] recorded
whether houses were constructed of heavy or lightweight materials in their study seeking to
quantify social vulnerability to Typhoon Haiyan. Usamah et al. [34] used a measure of the
degree of concrete present and building geometry to indicate vulnerability to wind and flood
hazards in their holistic study of housing in informal settlements in the Philippines. Resilience-
based assessments of buildings exposed to flooding in developing countries are emerging [35],
although not in relation to the type of traditional timber and bamboo structures prevalent in
rural Philippines.
As more focus is placed on reducing disaster risk in low- and middle-income countries by
investing time and resources in increasing resilience to hazards such as floods and wind, so
these risk-based approaches will become more developed and available. So far, good progress
is being made in both measuring and communicating flood hazard in these communities, but
much work is still to be done. Two critical factors in this are the consideration of local and
indigenous knowledge in understanding hazards and furthering understanding of the
relationship of geoscience with those communities to achieve this end. From the perspective of
physical vulnerability, there is a growing focus on non-engineered and vernacular structures in
relation to typhoon, flood, and wind hazards, with some key outputs developing in terms of
both engineering assessment and the role this plays in holistic societal resilience to these
disasters. Further progress in this is needed to reduce epistemic uncertainty surrounding the
response of these structures to flood and wind loads, which ongoing research is addressing [36].

As this progress continues, the outputs will be available to those whose role is increasingly to
deliver risk reduction in low- and middle-income countries, not least the shelter practice
community hosted within NGOs and international aid institutions [37]. Within the context of
shelter aid, practitioners focus on helping communities and householders recover through
providing physical assistance in the form of materials and, increasingly, cash [38]. Beyond this,
additional assistance on best practices for rebuilding houses is often provided, delivered in the
form of “Build Back Safer” (BBS) key messages [39] and promoted through various strategies,
including poster presentation, and community-based education and training. Early work from
the global engineering community focused on developing countries [40] sets out much of the
foundations for the key messages used today. The messages are designed to provide basic
construction advice that can be understood by people without an engineering or technical
background but also consider contextually appropriate, affordable, and available local materials
[41]. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 4 of 24

Messages are often focused on structural vulnerability, and little consideration is given to the
nature of their environmental setting. In many contexts, this renders them inadequate [42] and
unable to support the rapidly changing needs, priorities, and capacities of disaster affected
populations. The role of geosciences in post-disaster recovery is significant in understanding
rapid environmental change caused by disasters, mapping hazards, and predicting future risk.
From a humanitarian perspective, hazard and risk reduction awareness plays a significant role in
people’s capacities to recover over time and reduce risk to future hazards, and the sector is
actively seeking to embed risk approaches into the provision shelter support. For example,
disaster-affected communities often face frequent and varying hazards at the same time that
can delay housing recovery and inhibit and influence the impact of guidance provided by the
humanitarian community [43].

The uptake of BBS messages once communicated has been a challenge for the sector [44]. It is
widely accepted that a greater understanding of effective communication and behavior change
mechanisms need to be explored, as well as understanding the multiple external factors that
affect reconstruction decisions of disaster-affected households. Framing responses to this
challenge in the context of understanding and communicating risk is fundamental to achieving
progress. Work to this end is being carried out to improve capacity to develop such messages in
an efficient and timely manner despite the difficulties of post-disaster environments [45].
Nonetheless, research into building back safer clearly states that developing context-
appropriate, effective, applicable and timely safer reconstruction advice requires significant
involvement from multiple disciplines, including expertise on environmental hazards and
engineering [46].

1.2. Research Aims

In light of this state of progress of knowledge and application of geoscience and engineering to
the understanding and delivery of disaster risk reduction, the authors here present an approach
to measuring risk for inland rural communities in the Philippines exposed to wind and flood
hazards from typhoons. The aim of the work is to highlight through case study demonstration
how hazard data and severity indices can be combined with rapid physical vulnerability
assessments to produce a measurable scale of risk within the spatial context of a settlement.
The work draws on existing flood hazard mapping tools for the Philippines and combines this
with a site-deployable physical vulnerability index which has been applied to three villages in
the island of Leyte. In the following sections, a description of the methods applied is given
(Section 2), followed by a presentation of the results of the hazard and vulnerability
assessments (Section 3). The discussion focusses on how the approach could potentially
contribute to delivering disaster risk reduction in low and middle income countries that are
exposed to typhoons, such as the Philippines. The steps required to continue to integrate the
role of geoscience and engineering into risk reduction interventions in these contexts are
explored and how best to meet the needs of an evolving shelter practice that aspires to provide
an inter-disciplinary approach to promoting resilience in disaster-affected communities.

2. Methodology
The Case Studies In March 2017, the authors, a team comprising a geomorphologist,
engineer, and shelter researcher, visited three rural communities on the eastern side of the
central volcanic uplands of Leyte: Badiangay, Plaridel, and Calabnian
(Figure 1). The selection of the sites was made through considering rural community
locations where shelter assistance from NGOs had been given over an extended period of
time in the three and a half years following Typhoon Haiyan, in the form of expert advice,
training, cash, and material support. This offered the opportunity to survey buildings that
had become permanent homes in the wake of the disaster and therefore are suitable for
consideration in the context of measuring long-term risk and resilience. The buildings were
not assessed against any degree of BBS message uptake but rather a visual assessment of
the structures that recorded their features without Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 5 of 24 any bias,
as the influence of message uptake on shelter vulnerability is at this stage beyond the scope
of the work. The three sites were each visited for one day, in which multiple methods of
data collection were applied. In the field, transect walks with community members were
undertaken in each location. These transect walks provided an opportunity to speak to
community members about their knowledge and awareness of their surrounding
environment and hazard context. During the walks, community members pointed out areas
that they perceived to be susceptible to different hazards and spoke about their experience
of typhoon Haiyan in terms of damage caused to land and property. Focus groups provided
opportunity for more detailed discussion regarding the hazards experienced at the sites,
where timelines were constructed for extreme and severe weather events that had been
experienced within the community’s living memory. A photographic record of each location
was built up during the walks, focusing on reconstructed shelters present in the
communities and natural features that informed an understanding of the nature of the
hazards. The geomorphological context for each community was further investigated using
30 m and 90 m resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (STRM) elevation datasets
(Global 1-arc version 3, and global 3-arc version 3, after NASA JPL [47,48]). Satellite imagery,
available through Google Earth, was also collated, with pre- and post-event images
providing a useful means to assess the impact of the hazards on homes and on the
landscape (e.g., Figure 2).

Figure 1. Location of the three case studies in the Philippines on the island of Leyte to the
South-West of Tacloban, where typhoon Haiyan made landfall. The background elevation
data is from NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (STRM) [48]. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 6
of 24 Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 24 Figure 2. (A) Digital Globe image (23
February 2012) courtesy of Google Earth showing the community of Badiangay prior to
Typhoon Haiyan. (B) CNES/Airbus image (13 November 2013) courtesy of Google Earth
showing the community five days after Typhoon Haiyan passed through. Both nationally
produced data and local community knowledge were used in order to produce a hazard
profile for each site. The geographical and hazard context for each community is presented
in the next section, and these characteristics are schematically illustrated in Figure 3. In
addition to the external hazard data, community perceptions of flood hazard and
experiences of flood events offer important context to the design of the risk-based model
for supporting recovery. These insights offer confirmation of the nature of the hazard that is
shown in maps and enrich the context in which practitioners are able to assist in the
recovery process. Key observations and perceptions of community members are also
discussed in the following section.

Figure 2. (A) Digital Globe image (23 February 2012) courtesy of Google Earth showing the
community of Badiangay prior to Typhoon Haiyan. (B) CNES/Airbus image (13 November
2013) courtesy of Google Earth showing the community five days after Typhoon Haiyan
passed through. Both nationally produced data and local community knowledge were used
in order to produce a hazard profile for each site. The geographical and hazard context for
each community is presented in the next section, and these characteristics are schematically
illustrated in Figure 3. In addition to the external hazard data, community perceptions of
flood hazard and experiences of flood events offer important context to the design of the
risk-based model for supporting recovery. These insights offer confirmation of the nature of
the hazard that is shown in maps and enrich the context in which practitioners are able to
assist in the recovery process. Key observations and perceptions of community members are
also discussed in the following section. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 7 of 24 Geosciences 2018, 8,
x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 24 Figure 3. Vertically exaggerated schematic cross section to show
the geographical context and simplified geology of the communities investigated in this
study. P: Plaridel, C: Calabnian, B: Badiangay. The dashed line represents groundwater level.
Across the sites, the buildings were typically constructed of a timber frame and clad with
either bamboo or other timber (Figures 8 and 9). In most cases, the cladding panels were
permeable, being made of traditional woven palm or bamboo lath. Roofs were either gable-
ended or hipped, and it was common for the upper portion of the façade to be open to
allow roof-level ventilation (Figures 4 and 5). At ground level, shelters often included a
raised floor, providing a storage area beneath the house (Figure 4). Foundations were
predominantly formed of posts dug into the ground or, in some cases, a concrete slab was
present (Figure 5). Figure 4. Example house from Calabnian showing woven palm façade,
roof level ventilation, raised ground floor, and sunken post foundations. Figure 5. Example
house from Plaridel showing timber façade, hipped roof, and concrete slab base. Figure 3.
Vertically exaggerated schematic cross section to show the geographical context and
simplified geology of the communities investigated in this study. P: Plaridel, C: Calabnian, B:
Badiangay. The dashed line represents groundwater level. Across the sites, the buildings
were typically constructed of a timber frame and clad with either bamboo or other timber
(Figures 8 and 9). In most cases, the cladding panels were permeable, being made of
traditional woven palm or bamboo lath. Roofs were either gable-ended or hipped, and it
was common for the upper portion of the façade to be open to allow roof-level ventilation
(Figures 4 and 5). At ground level, shelters often included a raised floor, providing a storage
area beneath the house (Figure 4). Foundations were predominantly formed of posts dug
 into the ground or, in some cases, a concrete slab was present (Figure 5). Geosciences 2018,
8, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 24

Figure 3. Vertically exaggerated schematic cross section to show the geographical context
and simplified geology of the communities investigated in this study. P: Plaridel, C:
3. Calabnian, B: Badiangay. The dashed line represents groundwater level. Across the sites, the
buildings were typically constructed of a timber frame and clad with either bamboo or other
timber (Figures 8 and 9). In most cases, the cladding panels were permeable, being made of
traditional woven palm or bamboo lath. Roofs were either gable-ended or hipped, and it
was common for the upper portion of the façade to be open to allow roof-level ventilation
(Figures 4 and 5). At ground level, shelters often included a raised floor, providing a storage
area beneath the house (Figure 4). Foundations were predominantly formed of posts dug
into the ground or, in some cases, a concrete slab was present (Figure 5). Figure 4. Example
house from Calabnian showing woven palm façade, roof level ventilation, raised ground
floor, and sunken post foundations. Figure 5. Example house from Plaridel showing timber
façade, hipped roof, and concrete slab base. Figure 4. Example house from Calabnian
showing woven palm façade, roof level ventilation, raised ground floor, and sunken post
foundations. Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 24 Figure 3. Vertically
exaggerated schematic cross section to show the geographical context and simplified
geology of the communities investigated in this study. P: Plaridel, C: Calabnian, B:
Badiangay. The dashed line represents groundwater level. Across the sites, the buildings
were typically constructed of a timber frame and clad with either bamboo or other timber
(Figures 8 and 9). In most cases, the cladding panels were permeable, being made of
traditional woven palm or bamboo lath. Roofs were either gable-ended or hipped, and it
was common for the upper portion of the façade to be open to allow roof-level ventilation
(Figures 4 and 5). At ground level, shelters often included a raised floor, providing a storage
area beneath the house (Figure 4). Foundations were predominantly formed of posts dug
into the ground or, in some cases, a concrete slab was present (Figure 5). Figure 4. Example
house from Calabnian showing woven palm façade, roof level ventilation, raised ground
floor, and sunken post foundations. Figure 5. Example house from Plaridel showing timber
 façade, hipped roof, and concrete slab base. Figure 5. Example house from Plaridel showing
timber façade, hipped roof, and concrete slab base. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76

4. Results 3.1.
Profiling the Hazards
The two hazards considered in this study are flooding and high winds associated with the effects
of typhoons in low relief, inland landscapes. Other non-hydrometeorological hazards (e.g.,
earthquakes) are not considered in this work. The Mines and Geosciences Bureau 1:10,000 scale
flood hazard maps [49–52] indicate areas of low, moderate, high, and very high flood
susceptibility. Each category is associated with a range of likely flood heights and durations
associated with prolonged and heavy rains, and a general description of the topography and
geomorphology in the area

(Table 1). These maps were downloaded from the MGB website and can also be viewed via an
online map viewer (http://gdis. mgb.gov.ph/mgbpublic/). In addition, the Nationwide
Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) has produced flood inundation maps based
on simulations of a 100 year return rainfall event for Leyte. The NOAH maps were viewed on a
web-GIS viewer (http://noah.dost.gov.ph/#/) and open data GIS files were downloaded from the
NOAH website (http://center.noah.up.edu.ph/resources). The NOAH maps give a range of
inundation heights and identify zones with different modelled hazard levels [24] (Table 1). Table
1. Flood hazard levels derived from Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) and Project NOAH
maps. The rating for risk matrix column on the right hand side attempts to merge these hazard
levels into simple high (H), medium (M), and low (L) scores so they can be combined within the
risk matrix (Figure 15).
Source Hazard Level Flood Height Flood Duration Topography Rating for Risk Matrix MGB 1:10K
flood hazard maps Low susceptibility ≤0.5 m ≤1 day Low hills, gentle slopes. L Moderate
susceptibility from the multi-hazard building suitability map for Leyte, produced by Deutsche
Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH [53]. These authors used modelled
regional (30 km2 raster resolution) maximum wind speeds (sustained for three seconds) with
return intervals of 50, 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years, which are available as GIS files from the
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) Programme (http://risk.preventionweb.net/capraviewer).
The regional CAPRA values were then adjusted to site-specific wind speeds using a factor based
on land cover, surface slope, and aspect [53].

3.1.2. Plaridel

The community of Plaridel (130 m a.s.l.) is developed upon an alluvial fan that extends out from
the volcanic hills to the west. The surface of the fan slopes very gently toward the north-east at
an average angle of approximately 1.5◦ . The center of the community is located approximately
400 m from the Binahaan river to the north and approximately 100 m from the smaller Panda
river to the south. Both these rivers are incising into the alluvial fan, with Plaridel sitting on an
elevated terrace in between (Figures 3 and 7). The soil is a sandy loam. During the field visit,
locals said that their pump well reaches a depth of 25 m and that the subsurface material to
that depth mostly consists of sand. Plaridel is built upon ground mapped by MGB as having zero
to low flood susceptibility. The Project NOAH 100-year flood map suggests that most of the
community has no flood hazard, with a small area in the east exposed to a level 1 hazard (Figure

7). The CAPRA regional 50 year return period maximum wind speed is 207 km h−1 , and the
adjusted local wind speed that is shown in the maps produced by GIZ [53] is somewhat lower
(165 km h−1 ), reflecting the influence of forest cover. In Plaridel, damage to housing during
Typhoon Haiyan was almost entirely caused by wind, with the majority of the shelters requiring
extensive or complete rebuilds after the event. During the focus group discussions, community
members indicated that water levels locally reached knee depth but lowered quickly after. The
well-drained sand and gravel below the community (Figure 3) means that prolonged flooding is
unlikely to occur: “the water only stays high for one hour—we are not flood prone”. The
community is aware of its position in relation to the surrounding environment and how this
reduces the flood hazard that they are exposed to: “the ground is higher here than in other
areas . . . no one lives in areas that get washed out”. These observations describing a relatively
low flood hazard are consistent with patterns shown in the flood hazard maps produced by
Project NOAH (Figure 7) and MGB [52]. However, it is worth noting that, while the community
escapes direct flooding, it is still impacted by flood waters cutting off access and isolating it:
“Even though when the rivers are high we are safe, we still get trapped”.

3.1.3. Calabnian

The geographical context for Calabnian is somewhat similar to Plaridel. Calabnian

(approximately 50 m a.s.l.) is also developed on an alluvial fan, which slopes gently
(approximately 1.5◦ ) towards the east. The community is bounded by rivers 500 m to the north,
and 100 m to the south. However, unlike Plaridel, Calabnian is not developed on a prominent
terrace on the alluvial fan surface; and the ground surface is closer to the elevation of the river
that flows past the southern edge of the community (Figures 3 and 8). The soil is a sandy loam.
During the field visit locals indicated that sands continue to at least 6 m below the surface (the
depth of one of their pump wells). The 1:10,000 scale MGB maps assign zero to low flood
susceptibility for the northern side of Calabnian; however, the southern half of the community
is assigned a moderate flood susceptibility. Similarly, the NOAH 100-year flood hazard is zero in
the north-western side of Calabnian and level 3 in the southern side he community (Figure 8b).
The CAPRA regional 50-year return period maximum wind speed is 203 km h−1 . The adjusted
local wind speeds calculated by GIZ [53] vary from 141–189 km h−1 . This variation is largely a
result of the patchwork of more open and forested areas around the community. In Calabnian,
the community recounted several episodes of flooding; these have been particularly focused
around the south-eastern side of the community. During Typhoon Haiyan flooding was
considered a cause of damage alongside the high winds—particularly in the south-eastern edge
of the community. One community member observed that “the river moved during Yolanda
(Haiyan)”, perhaps describing where the river rose to flow along new (usually dry) channels—
one of which is occupied by houses in the southern edge of the community (Figure 8b).
Although flooding in this area is relatively frequent, it appears rarely to be prolonged: “flooding
doesn’t last more than 1–2 days”. The general accounts of flooding in the south-eastern side of
the community are in agreement with the moderate to high flood hazard indicated on Project
NOAH (Figure 8b) and MGB maps [51].

3.1.4. Wind and Flood Hazard:

Site Comparison The flood hazard designations demonstrate that even at the scale of a single
village flood hazard can fluctuate, highlighting that within the same community certain villagers
will be more or less at risk from a given flood event. On the MGB maps, the flood hazard in
Calabnian and Plaridel ranges from ‘low’ to ‘moderate’ in the areas where buildings are present.
This corresponds to flooding of up to 1m depth with maximum duration of three days.
Meanwhile in Badiangay, a more significant flood hazard range of ‘moderate’ to ‘high’ exists,
which would expose buildings to flood depths of up to 2 m, for durations in excess of three
days. These rapidly identifiable levels of flood hazard give immediate context to any post-
disaster assessment of shelter reconstruction that seeks to reduce future risk. For example,
repositioning of reconstructed buildings in Plaridel and Calabnian in areas where only ‘low’
hazard was present would potentially reduce likely future damage. Meanwhile in Badiangay,
the relatively severe flood hazard would identify a need to prioritise incorporating flood-
resilient design into reconstructed shelters, such a raising floor levels. The maximum wind
speed profiles for each of the sites in this study are shown in Figure 9. Badiangay and Calabnian
are exposed to relatively similar wind speed profiles, whilst that in Plaridel is lower by
approximate 14% across the range of return periods. This is largely a result of the higher surface
roughness in Plaridel caused by increased tree cover, which can act to reduce wind speed [53].
In each location, the maximum recorded wind speed felt in the Philippines during typhoon
Haiyan (315 km h−1 ) rates as a return period of between 400 (Badiangay) and 1000 (Plaridel)
years, a more typical 100-year return period wind speed for these locations is around 200 km
h−1 .

3.2. Building Vulnerability Assessment

His aim of the design of the vulnerability assessment is to enable a meaningful measure of
vulnerability to be ascertained within the context of post-disaster assistance strategies. This
relies on visual measures of vulnerability that can feed into simple classification procedures and
ultimately be communicated as advice to communities. Detailed geometric surveying and
material analysis for example would be inappropriate for this approach, although more detailed
assessments would benefit from such data. At this level of assessment, simple physical models
of loading and structure response can be considered in relation to the building to ascertain a
relative measure of vulnerability dependent upon architectural features of the design of the
structure. A simple numerical scale of building vulnerability to flooding was developed by
Stephenson and D’Ayala [54] specifically for historic structures, which has since been applied in
the Philippines for heritage buildings within a multi-hazard context [55]. The work presented
here uses a similar approach to the study of traditional rural housing in the Philippines,
understood as non-engineered vernacular buildings. Across the case studies, rapidly assessable
external building features were identified that were common to the shelters constructed in
these rural locations. The internal features were not considered, neither were detailed
structural indicators such as diagonal bracing as this level of detail goes beyond the scope of
this initial assessment approach. These features form the basis of the vulnerability indicators,
with the rating scale derived using simple mechanical indicators for increased likelihood of
damage to the structure by floodwater or wind pressure. For each hazard case, three indicators
were used, with either a numeric scale or binary option in each case. The options in each
indicator are then translated into a numeric vulnerability factor (VF) on a normalised scale from
0 to 1 following the method previously set out in Stephenson and D’Ayala [54]. Figure 10
schematically depicts the indicators and how they contribute to vulnerability in relation to the
hazards, whilst Table 2 describes the indicators and the rationale for their contribution to
damage and loss in the building. In the case of flood hazard, the effect of lateral pressure from
floodwater is considered in relation to the resistance of the structure to being washed away,
and the impact of floodwater inundation on building materials and belongings with raised floors
and second storeys is considered to reduce vulnerability in this respect. Flood inundation of
materials is typically the first stage in a damage Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 12 of 24 scale derived
for flood hazards [56], and its incorporation here offers the opportunity to produce an
assessment that is distributed in nature and covers a broader scale of vulnerability extents. In
relation to wash out, the connection of the structure to the foundation is a significant factor,
and in the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan surveys reported these to be very poor [42].
Additionally, a lack of connection between stone foundation and post is employed in the
Philippines as a mitigation against earthquake shaking hazard [57]. In this model, limited or no
mechanical connection is assumed between the timber frame and either slab or post
foundation, with only the friction action of the embedment of the post considered to resist
flood loading and provide vulnerability reduction. In the case of wind hazard, the roof design
and shape is considered in relation to the local pressures around the structure; this focus in part
being driven by a predominance for roof damage as a result of typhoons [58]. Wind tunnel tests
have shown that hipped roofs can reduce peak suction pressure by up to 42% when compared
to gable roofs in low-rise buildings [59]. They are considered less vulnerable than gable
structures due to their ability to deflect wind load and resist the increase of wind pressure at
the edges, such as occurs in gable roofs. Likewise, larger overhangs have been shown to lead to
increased roof pressures, even in hipped roofs [60], and these are considered to increase
vulnerability. Finally, the presence of a roof level vent, to permit wind to pass through a
structure more easily is considered to reduce the vulnerability, based on the principle that large
openings located opposite to each other on a building façade reduce overall wind pressure
coefficients [61].
 Figure 7. (A) Plaridel sits on an elevated terrace, which has developed during the Holocene as
the Binahaan river to the north and Panda river to the south have incised to lower levels. Much
of the terrace lies above modelled flood levels. Elevation model derived from NASA SRTM [60].
(B) Satellite image of Plaridel showing spread out housing and dense tree cover. Base map
provided by Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). The flood hazard levels in both
images (A,B) are taken from the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH)
100-year return event. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 13 of 24 Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER
REVIEW 13 of 24 Figure 8. (A) Calabnian is located close to the edge of a low terrace between
rivers located to the north and south. Elevation model derived from NASA SRTM [60]. (B)
Satellite image of Calabnian showing housing clusters in high and low hazard zones. Base map
provided by ESRI. The flood hazard levels in both images (A,B) are taken from the Project NOAH
100-year return event. Figure 9. Wind speed hazard curve derived from [22]. 100 150 200 250
300 350 400 10 1000 Wind Speed_km h-1 Return Period_years Local Wind Speed Hazard_3
Rural Philippine Communities Badiangay Plaridel Calabnian
Figure 8. (A) Calabnian is located close to the edge of a low terrace between rivers located to
the north and south. Elevation model derived from NASA SRTM [60]. (B) Satellite image of
Calabnian showing housing clusters in high and low hazard zones. Base map provided by ESRI.
The flood hazard levels in both images (A,B) are taken from the Project NOAH 100-year return
event. Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 24 Figure 8. (A) Calabnian is located close
to the edge of a low terrace between rivers located to the north and south. Elevation model
derived from NASA SRTM [60]. (B) Satellite image of Calabnian showing housing clusters in high
and low hazard zones. Base map provided by ESRI. The flood hazard levels in both images (A,B)
are taken from the Project NOAH 100-year return event. Figure 9. Wind speed hazard curve
derived from [22]. 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 10 1000 Wind Speed_km h-1 Return
Period_years Local Wind Speed Hazard_3 Rural Philippine Communities Badiangay Plaridel
Calabnian

Figure 9. Wind speed hazard curve derived from [22]. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 14 of 24
Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 24 Figure 10. Schematic of vulnerability
indicators showing mechanical processes in relation to flood and wind hazards and traditional
rural Philippine building features. Vulnerability factors (VF) are given for different options
relating to each indicator. Table 2. Description of vulnerability indicators for flood and wind
hazard. Hazard Indicator Indicator No. Options Description Flood Presence of Second Storey F1
Yes, No Presence of second storey provides a place to store belongings in event of a flood,
reducing the likelihood of loss. Raising of Ground Floor F2 0.0–0.25 m, 0.25–0.5 m, 0.5–0.75 m,
0.75–1.0 m Raising of ground floor level reduces likelihood of flooding and loss of belongings.
Presence of Concrete Slab F3 Yes, No A slab foundation beneath timber posts increases
likelihood of floodwater washing building away. Wind Roof Shape W1 Gable, Hipped Hipped
roof deflects wind pressure more effectively, reducing likelihood of roof damage. Overhang W2
0.0, 0.0–0.5 m, >0.5 m Larger overhang leads to increased wind pressure at roof level,
increasing likelihood of roof damage. Roof Vents W3 Yes, No Ventilation at roof level permits
winds to travel through the building, reducing wind pressure. For each hazard case, the
indicators are described here in

Table 3 for flood and Table 4 for wind. Suitable numeric bands were selected for indicators F2
and W2 in order to promote rapid visual assessment, and without the need for a detailed
survey. This was to promote feasible undertaking of the assessment by international agencies
working in disaster recovery contexts seeking to apply vulnerability-based assessments. For
each of the three communities, photographic records were used to assign exemplar buildings
with a vulnerability factor for each category. Examples are shown in Figures 11 and 12 of
relatively less and more vulnerable buildings. This method of presentation offers an overview of
the typology of building that has been classified as more or less vulnerable according to this
methodology. The annotated photographic records provide pictorial information to convey the
potential vulnerabilities to homeowners. This offers an opportunity to facilitate more successful
communication with communities. The pictorial records can be used to show less and more
resilient reconstructed shelters, which can be promoted or discouraged by practitioners
assisting with recovery. As they are linked directly to existing buildings and building practice on
the site, they promote already existing building Figure 10. Schematic of vulnerability indicators
showing mechanical processes in relation to flood and wind hazards and traditional rural
Philippine building features. Vulnerability factors (VF) are given for different options relating to
each indicator.

Table 2. Description of vulnerability indicators for flood and wind hazard. Hazard Indicator
Indicator No. Options Description Flood Presence of Second Storey F1 Yes, No Presence of
second storey provides a place to store belongings in event of a flood, reducing the likelihood of
loss. Raising of Ground Floor F2 0.0–0.25 m, 0.25–0.5 m, 0.5–0.75 m, 0.75–1.0 m Raising of
ground floor level reduces likelihood of flooding and loss of belongings. Presence of Concrete
Slab F3 Yes, No A slab foundation beneath timber posts increases likelihood of floodwater
washing building away. Wind Roof Shape W1 Gable, Hipped Hipped roof deflects wind pressure
more effectively, reducing likelihood of roof damage. Overhang W2 0.0, 0.0–0.5 m, >0.5 m
Larger overhang leads to increased wind pressure at roof level, increasing likelihood of roof
damage. Roof Vents W3 Yes, No Ventilation at roof level permits winds to travel through the
building, reducing wind pressure. For each hazard case, the indicators are described here in
Table 3 for flood and Table 4 for wind. Suitable numeric bands were selected for indicators F2
and W2 in order to promote rapid visual assessment, and without the need for a detailed
survey. This was to promote feasible undertaking of the assessment by international agencies
working in disaster recovery contexts seeking to apply vulnerability-based assessments. For
each of the three communities, photographic records were used to assign exemplar buildings
with a vulnerability factor for each category. Examples are shown in Figures 11 and 12 of
relatively less and more vulnerable buildings. This method of presentation offers an overview of
the typology of building that has been classified as more or less vulnerable according to this
methodology. The annotated photographic records provide pictorial information to convey the
potential vulnerabilities to homeowners. This offers an opportunity to facilitate more successful
communication with communities. The pictorial records can be used to show less and more
resilient reconstructed shelters, which can be promoted or discouraged by practitioners
assisting with recovery. As they are linked directly to Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 15 of 24 existing
buildings and building practice on the site, they promote already existing building practices that
can produce safer housing and risk reduction. Building on this, photographic records
accumulated over time across sites will allow for the verification and aggregation of typologies
and their associated vulnerability ratings, offering the future opportunity to assess the
vulnerability at larger geographical scales with robust statistical techniques. Table 3.
Vulnerability scale for flood hazard. Indicator Options Vulnerability Factor F1 Yes 0.5 No 1.0 F2
0.75–1.0 m 0.25 0.5–0.75 m 0.5 0.25–0.5 m 0.75 0.0–0.25 m 1.0 F3 No 0.5 Yes 1.0 Table 4.
Vulnerability scale for wind hazard. Indicator Options Vulnerability Factor W1 Hipped 0.5 Gable
1.0 W2 0.0 0.33 0.0–0.5 m 0.66 >0.5 m 1.0 W3 Yes 0.5 No 1.0 Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER
REVIEW 15 of 24 practices that can produce safer housing and risk reduction. Building on this,
photographic records accumulated over time across sites will allow for the verification and
aggregation of typologies and their associated vulnerability ratings, offering the future
opportunity to assess the vulnerability at larger geographical scales with robust statistical
techniques.

Table 3. Vulnerability scale for flood hazard. Indicator Options Vulnerability Factor F1 Yes 0.5 No
1.0 F2 0.75–1.0 m 0.25 0.5–0.75 m 0.5 0.25–0.5 m 0.75 0.0–0.25 m 1.0 F3 No 0.5 Yes 1.0 Table
4. Vulnerability scale for wind hazard. Indicator Options Vulnerability Factor W1 Hipped 0.5
Gable 1.0 W2 0.0 0.33 0.0–0.5 m 0.66 >0.5 m 1.0 W3 Yes 0.5 No 1.0 In addition to individual
building assessment, the vulnerability of the community of shelters in a given location was
measured by looking at the surveyed buildings collectively and identifying the proportion of low
to high vulnerability characteristics across all buildings. This is depicted, for the three locations
in this study, in Figures 13 and 14 for flood and wind hazard, respectively, while in the charts, a
darker shade indicates higher vulnerability. The charts show the proportion of buildings
surveyed in each location that fall into increasing vulnerability categories, increasing from 1
(lowest vulnerability) to 2 or 4 (highest vulnerability), depending on the number of increments
for the indicator. Figure 11. Example low vulnerability shelter from Calabnian

Figure 11. Example low vulnerability shelter from Calabnian. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 16 of 24
Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 24
Figure 12. Example high vulnerability shelter from Badiangay. The method pictorially describes
the vulnerability at settlement scale for the individual indicators, and comparison of the charts
shows which locations have a higher proportion of vulnerable buildings. For example,
Badiangay has the highest proportion of vulnerable stock when considering the presence of a
concrete slab in response to the flood hazard. The charts also show which indicators are more
prevalent at high vulnerability states across all sites. For example, undercroft heights are
dominant at the highest vulnerability level across all three sites, unlike the other two indicators.
This method of display offers the opportunity to take an overview of the state of vulnerability of
a given site or collection of sites, an important factor in the understanding the relative risk to
different locations. Figure 13. Vulnerability indicator distribution for flood hazard across three
locations: Badiangay, Plaridel, and Calabnian.

Figure 12. Example high vulnerability shelter from Badiangay. In addition to individual building
assessment, the vulnerability of the community of shelters in a given location was measured by
looking at the surveyed buildings collectively and identifying the proportion of low to high
vulnerability characteristics across all buildings. This is depicted, for the three locations in this
study, in Figures 13 and 14 for flood and wind hazard, respectively, while in the charts, a darker
shade indicates higher vulnerability. The charts show the proportion of buildings surveyed in
each location that fall into increasing vulnerability categories, increasing from 1 (lowest
vulnerability) to 2 or 4 (highest vulnerability), depending on the number of increments for the
indicator. Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 24 Figure 12. Example high
vulnerability shelter from Badiangay. The method pictorially describes the vulnerability at
settlement scale for the individual indicators, and comparison of the charts shows which
locations have a higher proportion of vulnerable buildings. For example, Badiangay has the
highest proportion of vulnerable stock when considering the presence of a concrete slab in
response to the flood hazard. The charts also show which indicators are more prevalent at high
vulnerability states across all sites. For example, undercroft heights are dominant at the highest
vulnerability level across all three sites, unlike the other two indicators. This method of display
offers the opportunity to take an overview of the state of vulnerability of a given site or
collection of sites, an important factor in the understanding the relative risk to different
locations.

Figure 13. Vulnerability indicator distribution for flood hazard across three locations: Badiangay,
Plaridel, and Calabnian. Figure 13. Vulnerability indicator distribution for flood hazard across
three locations: Badiangay, Plaridel, and Calabnian. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 17 of 24
Geosciences 2018, 8, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 24
Figure 14. Vulnerability indicator distribution for wind hazard across three locations: Badiangay,
Plaridel, and Calabnian. This is a first step toward a robust multi-hazard physical vulnerability
assessment of vernacular timber structures prevalent in rural Philippines. Further iterations of
the method will look to expand the number of externally visible indicators to incorporate more
aggregated measure of vulnerability. Such indicators could include the plan shape of the
building which affects local wind pressure distributions, roof pitch which has been shown to
affect peak pressure and height to volume ratio of the building. Providing the surveying effort
allows for feasible collection of robust data (in terms of sample size and completeness), further
more detailed structural measures could also be incorporated, such as the presence of bracing
which contributes to wind resistance. An additional step would be to collate the individual
vulnerability factors (VF’s) into a single rating for all indicators, by summing and then
normalising the result, bringing the method in line with other multi-hazard assessments that
make use of this methodology [55]. This would incorporate the positive and negative effects of
individual features in respect to both hazards and sum to give a measure of the cumulative
effect of each. From this a single numerical value for an individual building can be obtained,
such as would be used for the computation of risk, as described further in the next section. 3.3.
A Risk-Based Approach for Disaster Shelter Practitioners The final stage of the assessment is to
consider the vulnerability and hazard together in order to begin to describe the risks. A pictorial
and matrix approach is proposed and discussed here, which is intended to be both simple to
produce and easily explained to local communities. First, the vulnerability ratings (VR) for each
of the buildings on a given site are grouped into low, medium, and high classes. A VR of
between 0 and 0.33 is classed as low (1), between 0.34 and 0.66 as medium (2), and between
0.67 and 1 as high (3). Second, the hazard severity for each building is additionally grouped into
low (L), moderate (M), and high (H). For the Mines and Geoscience Bureau (MGB) maps used
here [49–52], the high Figure

14. Vulnerability indicator distribution for wind hazard across three locations: Badiangay,
Plaridel, and Calabnian. The method pictorially describes the vulnerability at settlement scale
for the individual indicators, and comparison of the charts shows which locations have a higher
proportion of vulnerable buildings. For example, Badiangay has the highest proportion of
vulnerable stock when considering the presence of a concrete slab in response to the flood
hazard. The charts also show which indicators are more prevalent at high vulnerability states
across all sites. For example, undercroft heights are dominant at the highest vulnerability level
across all three sites, unlike the other two indicators. This method of display offers the
opportunity to take an overview of the state of vulnerability of a given site or collection of sites,
an important factor in the understanding the relative risk to different locations. This is a first
step toward a robust multi-hazard physical vulnerability assessment of vernacular timber
structures prevalent in rural Philippines. Further iterations of the method will look to expand
the number of externally visible indicators to incorporate more aggregated measure of
vulnerability. Such indicators could include the plan shape of the building which affects local
wind pressure distributions, roof pitch which has been shown to affect peak pressure and
height to volume ratio of the building. Providing the surveying effort allows for feasible
collection of robust data (in terms of sample size and completeness), further more detailed
structural measures could also be incorporated, such as the presence of bracing which
contributes to wind resistance.

An additional step would be to collate the individual vulnerability factors (VF’s) into a single
rating for all indicators, by summing and then normalising the result, bringing the method in
line with other multi-hazard assessments that make use of this methodology [55]. This would
incorporate the positive and negative effects of individual features in respect to both hazards
and sum to give a measure of the cumulative effect of each. From this a single numerical value
for an individual building can be obtained, such as would be used for the computation of risk, as
described further in the next section. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 18 of 24

3.3. A Risk-Based Approach for Disaster Shelter Practitioners The final stage of the assessment is
to consider the vulnerability and hazard together in order to begin to describe the risks. A
pictorial and matrix approach is proposed and discussed here, which is intended to be both
simple to produce and easily explained to local communities. First, the vulnerability ratings (VR)
for each of the buildings on a given site are grouped into low, medium, and high classes. A VR of
between 0 and 0.33 is classed as low (1), between 0.34 and 0.66 as medium (2), and between
0.67 and 1 as high (3). Second, the hazard severity for each building is additionally grouped into
low (L), moderate (M), and high (H). For the Mines and Geoscience Bureau (MGB) maps used
here [49–52], the high and very high flood hazard levels were combined into a single ‘high’ band
of hazard severity. In general, the hazard rating from the MGB and Project NOAH maps were
similar (e.g., Figure 8). However, where there was a discrepancy, the highest rating out of the
two maps was chosen. The hazard and vulnerability levels for each building are then combined
to provide a measure of the risk using a 3 × 3 matrix, offering nine different risk classifications
for any given building on the site from L1 through to H3 (Figure 15A,B). Geosciences 2018, 8, x
FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 24 and very high flood hazard levels were combined into a single ‘high’
band of hazard severity. In general, the hazard rating from the MGB and Project NOAH maps
were similar (e.g., Figure 8). However, where there was a discrepancy, the highest rating out of
the two maps was chosen. The hazard and vulnerability levels for each building are then
combined to provide a measure of the risk using a 3 × 3 matrix, offering nine different risk
classifications for any given building on the site from L1 through to H3 (Figure 15A,B). Figure 15.

(A) Illustration of shelter risk matrix for flooding hazard. Shelters that score in the lower left
corner are considered lower risk, whereas shelters that score in the upper right corner are
considered high risk, priority buildings. (B) Using the risk matrix for flood hazard in for
selected buildings in Calabnian. Base image from DigitalGlobe (11 December 2014) courtesy
of Google Earth. Ongoing or future shelter assistance would be best targeted on houses
scoring H3. Figure 15. (A) Illustration of shelter risk matrix for flooding hazard. Shelters that
 score in the lower left corner are considered lower risk, whereas shelters that score in the
upper right corner are considered high risk, priority buildings. (B) Using the risk matrix for
flood hazard in for selected buildings in Calabnian. Base image from DigitalGlobe (11
December 2014) courtesy of Google Earth. Ongoing or future shelter assistance would be
best targeted on houses scoring H3. Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 19 of 24 As an example of the
model, the flood risk matrix is applied to the site of Calabnian. The above vulnerability
method is applied, and the shelters across the site assigned with a low, medium, or high
flood vulnerability rating. Likewise, the flood hazard is assessed, and the same shelters are
identified as lying within low, moderate or high hazard areas.
(B) These two factors are then combined and used to classify the risk level for each individual
shelter at the site, as depicted in Figure 15b. The risk map shows that the collection of
houses to the bottom right is at far greater risk than those to the top left. This is as a result
of the change in flood hazard between these locations, highlighting that, within a single
settlement, significant impact can be had on property risk as a result of changing flood
hazard conditions. In the high risk zone, which has a constant flood hazard level, a
differentiation between property vulnerability is also demonstrated by the range of risk
ratings (H1–H3). This demonstrates that the vulnerability rating of buildings also informs on
the overall risk to homes and communities. This identification gives shelter practitioners an
opportunity to highlight to communities how best to address these risks through adapting
their shelters to be more resilient. This could be through movement of their shelters to a
site with a lower flood hazard or through modification of the design of their shelter to
reduce the vulnerability to flood inundation. The application of the risk to wind hazards is
less applicable to the matrix approach at this stage of the work, as the wind hazard has a
single severity rating at the scale of individual communities. Nevertheless, the wind
vulnerability assessment can be used to support and inform practitioner advice for those
communities recovering following a typhoon. In either case, a clear and simple message can
be translated to communities, thus promoting a helpful geoscience and engineering-
informed intervention by shelter practitioners seeking to assist safer, more resilient
recovery in flood- and typhoon-affected communities.
(C) 4. Discussion
The process presented in this paper provides stakeholders, be they homeowners or aid
organisations, with necessary information in the format needed to approach the process of
disaster recovery from a risk reduction perspective. The use of hazard mapping available
from MGB and Project NOAH provides a measure of flood hazard severity that has
institutional approval at national level, offering reliable datasets that additionally promote
the growth of risk reduction strategies from within the country. The wind hazard data has
been ratified by the global community working in risk reduction, and provides further
reliable input to the consideration of risk in relation to typhoon effects. The site data
collection enables the approach to incorporate the experience and knowledge of the local
communities and importantly expands the work to take account of local conditions in
relation to geoscience and geomorphology.
This enables the appraisal of the risk to account for local evidence for geohazards,
deepening the understanding of that risk and ultimately providing a more meaningful
measure of risk for the communities.
This is a key aspect of the work, and further integration of local knowledge into the hazard
and risk assessment is a significant future aspiration for the project team. The measuring of
vulnerability in the manner set out here offers an opportunity for meaningful quantification
driven by readily apparent building features that contribute to the overall vulnerability of
the structure.
As with any indicative method of vulnerability assessment there is an element of
uncertainty regarding the measures used. The multi-hazard nature of typhoons adds to this
in that structural modifications which reduce vulnerability to one hazard may not provide
overall risk reduction, and this is an important consideration for the future. The method is
not intended to be a substitute for a full mechanical or computational assessment of
structural response. Rather, the intention is that by taking these first steps toward
considering vernacular buildings such as those in rural Philippines as physically vulnerable
assets, through the use of an appropriate and feasible framework, the longer-term goal of
understanding the risk posed to them can begin to be met. The bringing together of the
hazard and vulnerability assessments into a single output that aims to describe the risk is in
the first instance an exercise in communicating the science and engineering knowledge
through a method that addresses the call from the global community to understand risk
posed by natural hazards to settlements in low- and middle-income countries.

The display of this Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 20 of 24 knowledge through a mapping medium

that incorporates vulnerability at individual building scale represents an important step in
this process as it empowers the homeowner through identifying risk at an individual level.
Further iterations of the vulnerability measures will provide greater detail to this process, as
will incorporation of more extensive local knowledge regarding the hazards. This work
provides those who are involved in shelter aid and assistance in post-disaster contexts a
demonstration of what a potential route to reducing future risks could look like. The
implementation of such a method would require addressing challenges that are faced by
those practitioners in this context.
One such challenge is the changing nature of their work, which at different times in the
aftermath of a disaster takes on a variety of roles. In the immediate aftermath, when
buildings are being reconstructed or have been done so before their arrival, the
implementation of risk reduction measures are more difficult, and it would not necessarily
be feasible to incorporate a method such as that proposed here in the rapid assessments
that take place at that time. Where a method such as this has more significance is in the
longer-term assistance programmes that are initiated, such as was the case in the
Philippines where shelter programmes were in place for months and years after the disaster
took place. In this context, the delivery of the BBS messages and associated education and
training that takes place does offer an opportunity for risk reduction measures and advice
to be implemented. The use of hazard scales derived from historic datasets, along with
vulnerability assessments that can be demonstrated as being directly applicable to people’s
homes, provides a robust starting point in understanding the risk for both the practitioner
and the community. There is clear work to do in order to enable a method such as this to
achieve its potential: for example, practical implications such as ensuring hazard maps are
accessed by practitioners as they prepare to enter the disaster zone. Furthermore, the
 uptake of such an approach would require an investment by NGOs in the training and
preparation of their shelter experts to allow them to embrace a more interdisciplinary,
developed hazard and vulnerability assessment tool and further enhance its fitness-for-
purpose within the shelter assistance community. More detailed considerations include
being able to incorporate the vulnerability assessment into the process of reconstruction,
which will likely have started before practitioners arrive at the disaster. In this way the
process needs to acknowledge that modifications may already have been made to the
rebuilt structure, and understanding vulnerability requires consideration of what has
already been changed, and what may change in the future as a result of BBS message
education and promotion.
By undertaking the process of assessing buildings in this way practitioners can better
understand the context and respective vulnerabilities that households face as a result of the
local construction practices and hazard awareness, and based on this understanding, advise
for more resilient reconstruction. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, rapidly
deployed temporary assistance does not allow for the detailed assessment required by this
method. Rather, practitioners are there to provide cash, materials, information, and
training, but essentially those rebuilding and choosing the materials are the disaster-
affected households. Future development of the approach will need to address the fact that
people’s reconstruction practices are not always directly affected by technical knowledge,
availability, and affordability of material or hazard awareness. Some of the vulnerabilities
built in to people’s homes are consequences of aesthetic preferences, culture, and/or
proximity to livelihoods. Even the movement of a home from one area to another piece of
land is rarely an option for most families. The influence that technical and risk-based advice
may have on these choices is not always clear or direct. From the position of a shelter
practitioner, the aim is to support informed choice for those who will be reconstructing
anyway, using a framework that promotes long-term risk reduction. Here, the authors
address significant challenges for shelter reconstruction and recovery in post-flood and
typhoon rural Philippines.
Firstly, that delivering adequate and effective resilient construction advice for affected
communities is difficult and secondly that the engineering and geosciences expertise has an
important role to play in effectively evaluating the risks to structures and therefore
providing advice on how to reduce vulnerability. In view of this, the study applies
geoscience and engineering appraisal to the problem of promoting more resilient
reconstruction in Geosciences 2018, 8, 76 21 of 24 post-disaster contexts. By demonstrating
how a practitioner might evaluate and assign risk levels to buildings in communities,
derived from consideration of both hazard and vulnerability measures, this study may add
to the work of existing shelter practice and build on the debate about the current use of
engineering and geosciences disciplines in informing the resilient.

5. Conclusions
The work described here has achieved the following:
• The setting out of flood and wind hazard scenarios for individual rural community
locations, derived from national datasets and individual community experiences;
 • The application of a method to understand hazard-specific physical building vulnerability
of vernacular housing in the Philippines;
• simple, systematic, and objective means of identifying the flood risk posed to rural
shelters within assisted communities in post-disaster contexts;
• Visual outputs that can be readily translated into information useful for local people and
as such offer an opportunity to explore the communication of a risk-based approach to post-
disaster interventions for both practitioners and affected communities alike;
• Presentation of a method that offers shelter practitioners the first steps toward a risk
reduction approach to advising on recovery processes as part of Build Back Safer drives in
post disaster contexts. These tangible outputs address the globally recognized ambition of
reducing disaster risk in middle- and low-income countries, especially through focused
application of technical knowledge available within the geosciences and engineering
communities. It is an invitation for shelter practitioners to explore how they might bring
engineering and geoscience disciplines into their work and offers the geoscience and
engineering communities a demonstration of how they might support practitioners and
communities in this. The overriding ambition is to prepare communities for future major
hazard events and seek greater involvement in reconstruction processes of interdisciplinary
risk reduction measures and approaches.onstruction of shelters in post-flood and typhoon
contexts such as that of the Philippines.

Acknowledgments:

This work was enabled through the NERC-funded Grant NE/P016200/1 titled “Promoting Safer
Building” and a programme of work funded by CARE UK (http://promotingsaferbuilding.org).
The authors thank and acknowledge the support of researchers at the Overseas Development
Institute (Twigg, Lovell), CARE UK (Flinn, Schofield), BGS (Sargeant), Loughborough University
(Dijkstra), and UCL (Rossetto, D’Ayala). The support of CARE International practitioners and
researchers within the Philippines was also gratefully received during the field work phase.

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Assessment Report, UNISDR, 2015. Available online: https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/gar
(accessed on 24 January 2018).
 Marine plastics in the Philippines:
Neil Angelo S. Abreo1,2 1Regional Integrated Coastal Resource Management Center (RIC-XI), Davao
Oriental State College of Science and Technology, Mati City, Davao Oriental, Philippines 2 Institute of
Aquatic and Applied Sciences, Davao del Norte State College, Panabo City, 1015, Philippines
Call for research Article · March 2018

Abstract

Plastics in the marine environment, aptly named “marine plastics,” are considered as a global threat to
marine biodiversity. A plethora of species has been reported to have succumbed to the harmful effects
of these marine pollutants (Kühn et al. 2015). The number of affected marine species is expected to rise
as research on this topic increases (Ryan 2015). For example, Abreo et al. (2016a) provided the first
evidence of plastic ingestion by Deriniyagala’s beaked whale (Mesoplodon hotaula). Minimum estimates
on the number of marine plastics in the world’s oceans are currently placed at 5.25 trillion pieces
(Eriksen et al. 2014). Moreover, Jambeck et al. (2015) estimate the global input of marine plastic at 4.8
to 12.7 million metric tons per year. This increasing number of plastic in the marine environment
through the years could also mean an increase in interactions with different marine species. Overlap in
the distribution of marine debris, including marine plastics, and the foraging habitats of marine species
will result as marine plastics become more ubiquitous. Previous studies have implicated the Philippines
as one of the highest contributors of plastics to the marine environment (Jambeck et al. 2015; Lebreton
et al. 2017). The country is said to contribute 0.28–0.75 million metric tons of marine plastic per year
(Jambeck et al. 2015). Pasig River alone is estimated to
KEYWORDS plastic, marine debris, marine pollution, Philippines.

Introduction
Contribute 3.21 x 104 tons of plastic per year to the marine environment (Lebreton et al. 2017). With
the Philippines hosting a very high marine biodiversity, the interaction between marine plastics and
marine species is inevitable. Published scientific literature on marine plastic in the country is surprisingly
scarce. LITTERBASE, a database which creates an inventory of scientific publications focusing on marine
plastic, shows that out of 1,756 scientific articles published on marine plastic worldwide, only three (see
Abreo et al. 2016a, 2016b; Aloy et al. 2011) were from the Philippines (Tekman et al. 2017). Although
other publications stating occurrences of marine plastic are present (e.g., Obusan et al. 2016; Orale and
Fabillar 2011), these studies did not focus on the problem. Nevertheless, even if these studies are
included, the number remains minimal. A more daunting problem is the discovery of microplastics
(plastics).

CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare no conflict of interest.

REFERENCES
Abreo NAS, Macusi ED, Blatchley DD, Cuenca-Ocay G. First evidence of plastic ingestion by the rare
deraniyagala’s beaked whale (Mesoplodon hotaula). IAMURE Int J Ecol Conserv 2016a; 19:16–36. Abreo
NAS, Macusi ED, Blatchley DD, Cuenca GC. Ingestion of marine plastic debris by green turtle (Chelonia
mydas) in Davao Gulf , Mindanao, Philippines. Philipp J Sci 2016b; 145:17–23. Aloy AB, Vallejo BM,
Juinio-meñez MA. Increased plastic litter cover affects the foraging activity of the sandy intertidal
gastropod Nassarius pullus. Mar Pollut Bull 2011; 62:1772– 79. Avio CG, Gorbi S, Milan M, Benedetti M,
Fattorini D, D’Errico G, Pauletto M, Bargelloni L, Regoli F. Pollutants bioavailability and toxicological risk
Resolving the Water Pollution Crisis in the Philippines: the Implications of Water Pollution on Public
Health and the Economy

Gabriella Andrews Pepperdine University, School of Public Policy, gabriella.andrews@pepperdine.edu

April 2, 2018

Introduction

Imagine being told that the water in all your faucets, the water you drink and use to bathe, contains
toxins such as mercury and feces. Now imagine that your local government knew about these dangers
but actively refused to share them until most of the people you knew and loved had fallen ill. This
hypothetical scenario is the current reality in the Philippines. An eighth of the country’s rivers are
considered too toxic for human and animal ingestion or contact and are unable to support most forms
of life.

1 Moreover, fewer than half of the total number of rivers in the Philippines have water safe enough for
consumption.

2 In recent years, contaminants found in large and small bodies of water contributed to one third of the
reported illnesses in the Philippines.

3 More surprisingly, the response by the Filipino government to combat this epidemic remains limited.
This paper supplies an in-depth description of the water crisis in the Philippines, its implications and
effects on the health of local people, and its impact on the local and national economy. It will next
provide four potential actions for the Filipino government to pursue and will explain potential
drawbacks of these actions. From these options, this paper will select a policy recommendation that will
require the government to acknowledge the concerns of international environmental organizations,
namely, funding for educational intervention programs that promote awareness of the crisis.

These programs would inform citizens on how to find safe drinking water and on the necessary steps to
take to combat a water-borne illness. Such 1 “The Problem,” Greenpeace Philippines, September 29,
2010, accessed 2018, http://www.greenpeace.org/seasia/ph/What-we-do/Toxics/Water-Patrol/The-
problem/. 2 Ibid. 3 Rhonda Marrone, “Water Pollution in the Philippines: Causes and Solutions,”
BORGEN, October 2, 2016, http://www.borgenmagazine.com/water-pollution-in-the-philippines/. 2
action allows for the Filipino government to take steps toward protecting their people while limiting the
financial burden of the endeavor. Literature Review Background

The Philippines, a Southeast Asian nation, is a collection of 7,107 islands surrounded by the Luzon Strait,
South China Sea, Sulu Sea, Celebes Sea, and Philippine Sea.

4 The tropical climate of the islands allows for the growth of corn, sugar cane, root crops, and rice.

5 Agriculture uses approximately 32% of the total land in the Philippines.

The Philippines is only a small exporter of agricultural goods and livestock. The islands export live fish,
processed fish, seafood, bananas, tree nuts, and tropical fruit, such as coconuts.
7 Though agriculture occupies one third of the total landmass, most exported goods come from the
manufacturing sector. Top exported goods of the Philippines include integrated circuits, computers,
wood carpentry, semiconductor devices, and insulated wire.

8 Major importers of Philippine products include Japan, the United States, Hong Kong, China, or
Singapore.

9 Even though trade has helped to develop the economy in the Philippines, the country has also
experienced some negative impacts of globalization; pollution of the lakes and rivers has become a
serious topic of concern. Currently, manufacturers are openly dumping hazardous chemicals into Laguna
Lake and the Pasig River.

10 An article published by Greenpeace states that 50 out of 421 rivers in the region are considered
biologically dead, meaning that the rivers 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid. 7 “Philippines,” OEC – Philippines (PHL)
Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners, 2017, https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/phl/. 8 Ibid.
9 Ibid.

10 “The Problem.” 3 do not contain any oxygen and are unable to support most species of life.

11 The Environmental Management Bureau (EMB) determined that only 47% out of the Philippines’ 127
freshwater bodies retain good water quality.

12 Also, 58% of groundwater reserves tested positive for coliform contamination.

13 Even the Marilao River, which runs through the capital city, Manila, was featured on Soapboxie’s list
of Top 10 Most Polluted Rivers in the World.

14 The water pollution crisis within the Philippines has been estimated to cost $1.3 billion USD annually.
15 The abundance of pollutants in the local water supply has negatively impacted the standard of life in
this Southeast Asian country. Sources of water in the Philippines suffer from a range of contaminants.
Industrial water waste contains chemical pollutants such as chromium, cadmium, lead, mercury, and
cyanide.

16 These pollutants persist over long periods of time and are often referred to as stock pollutants, but
their origins from industrial sources also allow them to be characterized as point-source pollution.

17 Other harmful wastes, such as decayed plants, livestock manure, dead animals, soil runoff, and
residue, are organic wastes that have contributed to the Philippines’ pollution problem.

18 Because they do not originate from industrial sources, these specific pollutants are commonly called
nonpoint source pollution.

19 Other water pollutants, which exacerbate the 11 Ibid. 12 Ibid. 13 Marrone, “Water Pollution in the
Philippines.” 14 K. “What Are the 10 Most Polluted Rivers in the World?” Soapboxie, August 03, 2017,
https://soapboxie.com/social-issues/What-Are-the-10-Most-Polluted-Rivers-in-the-World. 15 Ibid. 16
“The Problem.” 17 R. Quentin Grafton, The Economics of the Environment and Natural Resources
(Malden, MA: Blackwell Pub., 2004), http://site.ebrary.com/id/10158663. 18 “The Problem.”

19 Grafton,
The Economics. 4 Philippines’ water crisis are accidental oil and chemical spills and illegal dumping of
waste.

20 The presence of these pollutions has deeply impacted the daily lives of Filipino people. Implications
of Water Pollution As time passes, the health of the Filipino people continues to suffer. Within a five-
year span, exposure to waterborne contaminants were the cause of approximately one third of illnesses
in the Philippines.

21 An abundance of waterborne viruses and bacteria in drinking water leads to the contraction of
afflictions such as diarrhea, cholera, and various skin diseases.

22 People, as well as other animals, also experience the buildup of toxins over time within the fatty
tissue of their bodies, known as bioaccumulation.

23 In urban areas with inadequate sewage systems, cancer mortality rates are high.

24 Aside from its impacts on public health, water pollution also causes irreversible damage to the
environment. A common problem is eutrophication, which occurs when organic materials deposited
within the water deplete the oxygen available, causing anaerobic algae blooms.

25 Other pollutants stimulate the consumption of oxygen, which creates stress on specific organisms,
while decreasing the overall ability to survive

26 The lack of oxygen available within the lakes, rivers, ponds, and streams causes river-dwelling
creatures, such as fish, to decrease, and species who rely on streams to become endangered.

27 Pollutants can also change the physical properties 20 “The Problem.” 21 Marrone, “Water Pollution
in the Philippines.” 22 “Philippines: Providing Sewerage and Sanitation Services to Over 3 Million
People,” World Bank, April 8, 2013, accessed April 10, 2018,
http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/04/08/philippines-manila-third-sewerageproject. 23 John
M. Shandra, Eran Shor, and Bruce London, “Debt, Structural Adjustment, and Organic Water Pollution: A
Cross-National Analysis,” Organization & Environment 21.1 (2008): 38-55. 24 C. Maurer Wu, Y. Wang, S.
Xue, and D. L. Davis, “Water Pollution and Human Health in China,” Environmental Health Perspectives.
107.4 (1999): 251-256. 25 Ibid. 26 Shandra, et al., “Debt, Structural Adjustment, and Organic Water
Pollution.” 27 D. Evans, “The Formation of a River-Basin Authority Through Local Participation: A Case
Study from the Southern Philippines,” Water and Environment Journal 18.1 (2004): 36-38. 5 of water
itself. Certain pollutants shift the pH of the water, which causes many plants and animals to die because
they are unable to adapt to the new pH balance.

28 Local economies are severely impacted by water pollution, and the Filipino economy is no exception.
When citizens experience a decrease in hygiene due to the lack of clean water for bathing, they become
less productive .

29 This is because bathing is a basic need that must be met in order for an individual to focus proper
amounts of energy and time on greater responsibilities such as those at work, school, or in the home.
Women and children, in particular, are required to travel farther distances and work harder to collect
clean water, taking away from time that could be dedicated to other work, education, and focusing on
personal health.
30 Deteriorating water quality also negatively impacts the growth of crops and livestock and overall soil
quality, leading to reduced agricultural yields.

31 A decrease in productivity, a smaller crop yield, and missing work due to illness, all result in a lower
household income. Polluted water in the Philippines increases the possibility that living in the
Philippines may become a poverty trap. A decrease in household earnings will likely pressure children to
leave school to help increase household income; but a lack of schooling produces inadequate wages and
limits opportunity, creating a perverse cycle of poverty. Large amounts of water pollution have caused
an overall depreciation of public health in the Philippines. Poor health reduces labor efficiency while
simultaneously decreasing life expectancy, thus creating a health-induced poverty trap.

32 The reduction in life expectancy leads to a decrease in efficiency, because less workers are in the
labor market, and each worker must 28 Shandra, et al., “Debt, Structural Adjustment, and Organic
Water Pollution.” 29 “Philippines: Providing Sewerage and Sanitation Services to Over 3 Million People.”
30 Ibid. 31 Ibid. 32 Pierre-Richard Agénor, “Public Capital, Health Persistence and Poverty Traps,”
Journal of Economics 115.2 (2015): 103-131. 6 now take on more responsibility, leading to a decrease in
the quality of work. This decrease in efficiency then slows economic growth. Lower efficiency also leads
to a decrease in wages, ultimately generating shorter life expectancy in the oncoming years.

33 A reduction in life expectancy occurs because lower wages correlates to less necessary goods
purchased, such as food, clothing, and hygiene products, thus leading to the deterioration of health.
These negative environmental impacts typically begin before birth. Inadequate nutrition in utero can
cause cognitive and physical impairments or disabilities

34 If an expecting mother is without access to clean water, not only is she subject to dehydration and
pollutants, but her unborn offspring is also subject to harm. Access to clean water is an important
component of preventing malnutrition and decreasing infant mortality.

35 Governments can be of assistance by increasing their spending on health and/or infrastructure. This
spending may move the economy towards an increase in health and labor efficiency in the short run
while escaping the health-induced poverty trap in the long run.

36 In the example of the Philippines, environmental organizations have taken the lead on improving
water infrastructure while the government has chosen to limit its involvement. Current Policy the
Philippines passed the Clean Water Act of 2004 to help prevent further pollution of natural clean water
sources.37 through these reforms, the Filipino government attempted to create a sense of
accountability within the region by levying fines on polluters. Severity of the fine is dependent on the
type of pollutant found—such as organic, inorganic, and stock pollutants—as well as the classification of
the body of water the pollution was found in, such as 33 Ibid. 34 Ibid. 35 Ibid. 36 Ibid.

37 “Asia-Pacific Information Platform on Agricultural Policy,” Republic Act No. 9275: The Philippine Clean
Water Act of 2004, 2004, http://ap.fftc.agnet.org/ap_db.php?id=281. 7 rivers, streams, and so forth.

38 The Clean Water Act leaves the responsibility of charging fines and executing water guidelines to the
local governments.

39 However, private corporations may choose not to adopt water-conscious practices despite
consistently paying pollution fines. The accumulation of pollution fines from lakes and rivers may equal a
fraction of the cost of implementing proper water treatment and disposal of water waste within a
corporation. As long as the fines are less expensive than proper disposal of pollutants, corporations will
choose to continue to pollute. Global organizations have offered aid to the Philippines, but government
measures fail to prevent the continuation of water pollution. International organizations have
attempted to mitigate the consequences of water pollution in the Philippines. From 2004-2010, the
Manila Third Sewerage Project (MTSP) was introduced as an effort to reduce the pollution accumulating
within the Philippines, while also increasing access to safe drinking water and sanitation.

0 MTSP implemented a number of practices that would help complete their goal. This effort included
the creation of water treatment facilities, which then led to a spike in communal urban renewal
activities such as riverbank clean-up initiatives.

41 Other successes included improving facilities, utilizing a combination sewer-and-drainage system,

decentralizing sewage delivery, the construction or expansion of small treatment facilities more evenly
dispersed in the targeted region, and the promotion of safe disposal of treated septage.

42 This project was considered highly successful for the metropolitan Manila area. MTSP increased
sewerage coverage in the area from 3% to 30% in 2012.

43 More importantly, this program increased public awareness, impacting 3.7 million people by the end
of 38 Ibid. 39 Ibid. 40 “Philippines: Providing Sewerage and Sanitation Services to Over 3 Million People.”
41 Ibid. 42 Ibid. 43 Ibid. 8 the project .

44 However, the success of MTSP was geographically limited, as millions more Filipinos outside of the
capital have yet to see any improvements in the quality of their water. Action must be taken sooner
rather than later concerning water pollution within the Philippines. As more contaminants accumulate,
the costs of removing toxins and treating water increase.

45 Higher-income Filipino trading partners can influence environmental changes by promoting wealth
through trade and trade agreements. There is a belief that “income gains with freer trade may increase
both an individual country’s well-being, as well as global utility, and, in this way, lead to an increasing
demand for environmental quality.”

46 Essentially, higher income will lead to new levels of environmental consciousness and environmental
preservation. If the Philippines does nothing in hopes of one day becoming a higher-income nation, the
cost of reversing the damages done by water pollution will be impossible to pay. Luckily, plenty of
options are available for the Filipino government to pursue in the near future in order to reduce the
impacts of water pollution.

Analysis

To compare policy options, this analysis sets forth four criteria. The first criterion is that the best
solution must be relatively inexpensive to implement. The budget limitations on implementation must
be acknowledged. Second,

The plan must also be cost-effective in the long term. This is to reduce long-term costs, more potential
waste, and further implications from the lack of available clean water. Third, the ideal option must
attempt to reach the majority of, if not all, citizens affected by the problem. The inability to access clean
water is a national problem, and therefore all citizens are affected and deserve relief. Finally, the option
chosen must strive 44 Ibid. 45 Grafton, The Economics. 46 Ibid., 368. 9 for longevity, meaning that the
option must seek a permanent solution to the current problem.

These criteria will help assess which option is the most effective solution for the current crisis. The first
policy option is for the government to take action now by expanding the current water sanitation
system to include more water treatment plants. This will increase the scope of sewage plant coverage
while decreasing the amount of water processed by each plant. Reduced volume would allow for a more
thorough completion of the water treatment process and would ensure that more Filipinos are able to
access clean drinking water. Another benefit of this option is that the increase in water treatment plants
would create jobs, both high skill and low skill, in the local economy. Increased quality of septage
management would also be included with this option. Septage management includes, but is not limited
to, care of septic tanks, the process of removing sludge buildup, and tank replacement. This option
would meet many of the criteria of an ideal plan. Replacing the current water sanitation system is an
effective way to achieve a long-term solution to the problem.

Proper water care would also prevent the need for another replacement of the water sanitation system
in the future. Replacing the current system would potentially be a one-time financial burden that would
improve access to safe water for all citizens. The major trade-off of this option is the present cost. This
multi-billion-dollar idea would cause a huge increase in the national debt, which could turn the Filipino
government away from pursuing this policy option. Instead of spending a large amount of money on this
one potential solution, there are other cost-effective solutions that can reduce the impact of water
pollution. A second policy option is to increase fines for pollution and to deposit the revenue from the
fines into a fund designated for water pollution prevention. This is a very similar option to the current
water policy implemented in the Philippines.

However, increasing the fines placed 10 upon polluters would provide more funds to help clean up the
current buildup of sludge within the septic tanks. A dramatic increase in fines could also encourage
private manufacturing firms to adopt water-conscious practices as a long-term cost saving investment to
the company. Many of the criteria are satisfied by the option of increasing pollution fines, but there are
also significant drawbacks attached. Increasing water-pollution fines is a relatively inexpensive option,
and the revenue generated may lead to the implementation of other beneficial long-term solutions that
reach the masses, if successful. However, the effectiveness of this option is not guaranteed.

The timeframe to accumulate enough money to fund progress in water sanitation is unknown. Relying
on this option also has the potential to be an unreliable method of change, which is this option’s biggest
trade-off. Due to its potential ineffectiveness, this option would not impact the majority of citizens, thus
failing to meet that criterion. A smaller trade-off from this option is that saving money to replace the
septic system does not promote methods of safe waste water disposal. This stagnation in the amount of
water conscious efforts may cause this problem to rise again in the future. The third policy option for
the Philippines is to leave this problem for international organizations.

This does not necessarily unburden the Filipino government of its environmental responsibilities.
Instead, the government would fund environmental programs through grant initiatives as a means of
educating people of the Philippines about the water crisis. Since many Filipinos are currently using the
contaminated water in their daily lives as drinking and bathing water, education would help individuals
understand the complexity of this problem. Aside from understanding the problem, education provided
by these organizations would inform the people of ways to obtain clean drinking water, and practices to
limit pollution. Prevention methods, including safety measures, would be discussed to prevent the
further contraction of water borne 11 illnesses across the Philippines. The dependency on outside
organizations by the government does have trade-offs that should be assessed. This option places the
Filipino government in the position of becoming dependent on non-government agencies to assist in the
epidemic. However, this option reduces the amount of government spending on the problem because
government funds are limited to the amount the government has chosen to donate to the cause. This
method has the potential to reach the masses, whether or not a majority of citizens go through the
educational experience. Social media posts, and news articles on the program produced by
environmental agencies, will gain traction and be able to spread messages regarding the current state of
the contaminated water.

The information given by the organizations can promote long-term change in the actions of Filipino
citizens. This option fails to address short-term solutions to the high levels of toxins currently found in
the water, however, long-term change will be most beneficial for the future of the nation. At this point
in time, it may be too late for preventative measures, and this option does not address any positive
short-term solutions to water pollution. The last policy option for the Philippines is to use economic
incentives for responsible water use. Under this option, the Philippines can offer tax incentives for
households and private manufacturers to adopt water safe technology.

Companies and households will likely adopt water conscious techniques that limit the emission of water
pollutants because they will pay less in taxes for their environmentally friendly reforms by introducing
these techniques. In the long run, these incentives will become cost saving techniques for those who can
afford to adopt them. Though tax incentives for undertaking positive actions are enticing, there are
some trade-offs concerning this policy option. 12 There are several drawbacks to providing tax
incentives for houses and manufacturers who adopt clean water practices. One of the drawbacks of this
option is that it is unclear how many people and manufacturers will choose to qualify for these tax
incentives. If a majority chooses to participate, the Filipino government could very well be losing a large
portion of their tax revenue. Tax incentives for water conscious techniques may lead to tax increases in
other sectors as a way to make up the difference in revenue.

On the other hand, it is likely that the only households who are eligible for these tax incentives are
wealthy. In order to receive this longterm cost saving method, a household must first spend money on
changing their current water sanitation systems. This financial burden is unrealistic for many of the
lower income citizens, of which the Philippines is largely comprised. Though this option does meet the
effectiveness criterion, it fails to meet the other criteria of being a long-term solution and fails to reach
the majority of citizens. These trade-offs could potentially be reasons for the Philippines not to pursue
this option, but all options must be compared.

Conclusion

Though all policy options have their own specific drawbacks, the most practical solution is to limit
government involvement and leave the majority of the responsibility to international organizations such
as Greenpeace, EarthFirst!, or the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. The Filipino
government has already provided limited assistance in reducing the water pollution crisis. They should
make an effort to provide grants to the international organizations that promote environmentally-
conscious practices but specify that the grants are to be used for educational resources for the Filipino
people. Currently, the government does not have the resources to change all water sewage systems or
provide economic incentives, but promoting transparency and education may save millions of lives.
Leaders in government should 13 approach these organizations with the idea for them to lead the
reforms with supplementary government funding. Meetings should be held to discuss scheduling,
progress, and so forth. This will instill trust between the entities involved, while publishing the meeting
minutes will promote transparency. It is likely that this process will yield the desired results. Through
these actions, people will learn how they can access clean drinking water close to their homes and how
their actions may be impacting the water conditions. Citizens will learn how improper practices on their
small farms or in their homes have contributed to the poor water quality, and how the large factory in
close proximity to their town may impact their family’s health and income. Through intervention
initiated by these organizations, smart water practices will be spread across the region. Resources for
individuals who have contracted waterborne diseases will be made available. These organizations will
promote knowledge of the diseases, as well as what measures to take in order to become well once
more. The people of the Philippines have a right to clean water because it is a necessity. It is important
for the Filipino government to act now, before the damage done to their water sources becomes
irreversible. 14

Works cited

Agénor, Pierre-Richard. “Public Capital, Health Persistence and Poverty Traps.” Journal of Economics.
115.2 (2015): 103-131. “Asia-Pacific Information Platform on Agricultural Policy.” Republic Act No. 9275:
The Philippine Clean Water Act of 2004. 2004. http://ap.fftc.agnet.org/ap_db.php?id=281. Evans, D.
“The Formation of a River-Basin Authority Through Local Participation: A Case Study from the Southern
Philippines.” Water and Environment Journal. 18.1 (2004): 36- 38. Grafton, R. Quentin. The Economics of
the Environment and Natural Resources. Malden, MA: Blackwell Pub., 2004.
http://site.ebrary.com/id/10158663. Shandra, John M., Eran Shor, and Bruce London. “Debt, Structural
Adjustment, and Organic Water Pollution: A Cross-National Analysis.” Organization & Environment 21.1
(2008): 38-55. K. “What Are the 10 Most Polluted Rivers in the World?” Soapboxie. August 03, 2017.
https://soapboxie.com/social-issues/What-Are-the-10-Most-Polluted-Rivers-in-theWorld. Marrone,
Rhonda. “Water Pollution in the Philippines: Causes and Solutions.” BORGEN. February 28, 2018.
http://www.borgenmagazine.com/water-pollution-in-the-philippines/. “Philippines.” OEC - Philippines
(PHL) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners. 2017. https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/phl/.
“Philippines: Providing Sewerage and Sanitation Services to Over 3 Million People.” World Bank. April 8,
2013. Accessed April 10, 2018. http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/04/08/philippines-manila-
third-sewerageproject. “The Problem.” Greenpeace Philippines. September 29, 2010. Accessed 2018.
http://www.greenpeace.org/seasia/ph/What-we-do/Toxics/Water-Patrol/The-problem/. Wu, C.
Maurer, Y. Wang, S. Xue, and D. L. Davis. “Water Pollution and Human Health in China.” Environmental
Health Perspectives. 107.4 (1999): 251-256.
Solid Waste Management Awareness, Attitude, and Practices in a Philippine Catholic
Higher Education Institution Article · August 2018 DOI: 10.32871/rmrj1705.02.04
Abstract

The paper assesses the solid waste management awareness, attitude, and practices of the
employees and students of a Catholic higher education institution in the Philippines. Using a
descriptive research design, the data were collected using a self-administered survey
questionnaire and analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The major findings of the
study show that the respondents demonstrated a very high level of awareness and attitude and
high extent of practice of solid waste management. A significant difference was found in the
awareness, attitude, and practices of respondents when they were grouped according to status
and religion. Also, the findings established the relationship between awareness and attitude on
one hand and the extent of practice of solid waste management. Awareness, attitudes, and
practices were significantly related to age and educational level, except for sex which showed
no correlation with attitude and practices. Generally, this paper validates how knowledge
influences attitude that subsequently determines behavior particularly in solid waste
management as intervened by appropriate environmental education.

Keywords: Attitude, Awareness, Practices, Solid Waste Management

1.0 Introduction
The indiscriminate disposal of solid wastes is one major threat to environmental and human
well-being (Ejaz, Akhtar, Hashmi & Naeem, 2010; Neller & Neller, 2015; Domato, 2002).
Experts attribute the worsening problem on solid wastes dumping to the increasing human
population and rapid industrialization (Atienza, 2008 cited in Barloa, Lapie, & de la Cruz,
2016). Solid wastes are any rubbish or refuse generated from undesirable or useless
materials or substances (Desa, Kadir, & Yusooff, 2011). As inevitable byproduct of human
activities (Sinha et al., 2008), solid wastes can be classified as biodegradable, recyclable,
residual, and special according to the composition. They are produced from various sources
such as households, commercial establishments, industries, and institutions.
There is an 44 Recoletos Multidisciplinary Research Journal December estimate of 1.3
billion tons of waste that countries produced every year. With this trend, the world is
expected to generate 4 billion tons of waste by 2100 (Simmons, 2016). The Philippines
ranked highest in the Southeast Asia regarding trash collection rate (Ranada, 2015) and the
world's thirdbiggest dumper of plastic in the ocean (Suarez, 2015). Also, the National Solid
Waste Management Commission (2013) reported that the Philippines generates waste
every year on an average of 0.40 kg per capita. With this generation rate, the amount of
waste is expected to increase to 16.63 million tons in 2020 from 14.66 million tons in 2014
with Metro Manila as the highest waste contributor (DENR, 2015).
One strategic approach to address this environmental problem is through solid waste
management. Waste management is needed to reduce or mitigate the mounting global
crisis on waste which endangers humanity, pollutes the environment, and damages
communities. In particular, solid waste management is "a form of waste control, often
associated with storage, collection, transport, process, and disposal of solid waste following
quality standard of conservation, public health, engineering, economics, and other
environmental concerns" (Rahmaddin et al., 2015). In line with this principle, the Philippine
government signed into law the Republic Act (R.A.) 9003 which is also known as Ecological
Solid Waste Management Act of 2000.
The law provides the legal basis for a "systematic, comprehensive and ecological solid
waste management program which shall ensure the protection of public health and
environment." It mandates the creation of institutional mechanism and strategies for an
effective implementation of the solid waste management program in the country. Critical to
a successful solid waste management program is education. Educating people and inviting
them to participate in waste management program and initiatives can help them
understand the waste issue and its consequences on human and environmental health, and
the ways they can to mitigate it (Chakraborti, Hussam & Alauddin, 2003). Relevant to this
idea, R.A. 9003 mandates the stronger integration in the academic curricula of formal and
non-formal education of ecological solid waste management and resource conservation and
recovery topics to promote environmental awareness and action among the citizenry
(Section 2).
Given this context, educational institutions play a vital role in this environmental education.
Their educational programs and activities are potent means to raise awareness among the
members of the academic community about this pressing environmental issue and to take
active roles in the protection and care of the environment, our common home. Guided by
its vision, mission, goals, and objectives as a Catholic University, the University of Negros
Occidental-Recoletos (UNO-R) advocates ecological education and spirituality among the
members of the academic community which will hopefully change, inculcate, and develop
in them convictions, attitude, and practices respectful to the environment.
In fact, the religious education, campus ministry, and community extension programs
consider concern for the environment and people, as well as responsible stewardship of
God’s creation, as integral to the university’s evangelizing mission. For instance, religion
subjects integrate discussion on the integrity of God's creation and man's fundamental duty
to protect and develop it. Other subjects like science and 2017 Madrigal and Oracion 45
environmental courses include topics on the environment and solid waste management to
help students understand the hazards of wastes to the environment and human health and
train them on practical ways to reduce and manage their wastes at home and in the
community. Likewise, the University has implemented the “Clean as You Go” (CLAYGO)
policy to reinforce the curricular aspect and further intensify environmental consciousness
and response of employees and students to waste problem in the campus. The aforecited
institutional initiatives aimed at forming all members of the academic community
"advocates of a sustainable environment" (Ahmad et al., 2015). Though much had been
done by the University to sensitize, educate, and engage employees and students in issues,
concerns, and initiatives relative to solid waste management, the garbage production and
disposal is still a perennial problem that the academic institution yet needs to appropriately
address and resolve. So far, no study in the University has been conducted to assess how
cognizant, disposed, and responsive employees and students are on solid waste disposal
management. Thus, the study was conceived to investigate the level of awareness, the
degree of attitude, and extent of practices of employees and students of the University on
solid waste management. Moreover, it also examined whether their awareness, attitude,
 and practices significantly differ when they were compared according to status and religion.
Also, the correlation between awareness, attitude, and practices and age, educational level,
and sex were also investigated. The findings of the study intend to fill in the gaps in the
literature on solid waste management in terms of fostering a better understanding, forming
ethical attitudes, and promoting environment-friendly practices towards a safer, healthier,
and more sustainable university campus.

Framework of the Study

The study is anchored on the Reasoned Action Theory (Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975) which stressed
the relationship between behavioral intention and behavior. It argues that behavioral intention
precedes action. The behavioral intention is influenced by one's attitude towards the action and
subjective norms. The more fervent is the intention, the more likely the behavior will be
performed. Reinforcing the theoretical statement above, the theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen,
1991) explains that human actions are determined by person's intention which is influenced by
his attitude in combination with the subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. Both
theories provide a framework to help explain, understand, and predict human behaviors when
individual's involvement is voluntary and self-controlled.

Linking these theories to the study, the researchers hypothesized that students' awareness of
the negative consequences of indiscriminate disposal of waste can favorably influence their
attitude on how they can help to solve the wastes problem which will subsequently be
manifested in their actions of managing their waste properly at home and in school. On the
other hand, while it is true that human behavior may be driven by individual’s intention and
attitude, it could also be argued that self-interest can play a vital role in the decision-making
and acting. According to the Rational Choice Theory (Green & Fox, 2007), individuals act with
prudence and logic.

The decision to act or not to act is based on rational calculation, 46 Recoletos Multidisciplinary
Research Journal December and the choice is made on available options that will guarantee the
greatest satisfaction or profit to the individual. Meaning to say, individual human actions may
also be determined by self-interest based on the pleasure and profit outcomes of doing or not
doing. Thus, the theory implies that proper waste management may not always be altruistic
rather it may be influenced by weighing its cost and benefits. Relatedly, solid waste
management awareness is an environmental campaign which aims not only to educate people
on the consequence of creating and managing waste but also to form in them the right attitude
which will consequently motivate them to do desirable practices for waste disposal at home, in
school, and elsewhere. Several studies have been conducted which linked responsible
environmental behavior with knowledge, attitudes, verbal commitment, and sense of
responsibility of the person (Liou, 1992; Hines, Hugerford & Tomera, 1986); sociodemography,
political attitudes, environmental knowledge and concern combined (Olli, Grendstad &
Wollebaek, 2001). Given the context, education is vital to the solid waste management
program. Educating people to waste management will help them understand of the
indiscriminate disposal of waste to the environment and human health and empower them to
act accordingly (Chakraborti, Hussam & Alauddin, 2003). Along similar lines, environmental
programs must be integral to the school’s educational mission. Active participation of members
of the academic community is important in the implementation of its institutional programs for
environmental protection and sustainable development.

Though recycling is the most visible, measurable, and enforceable environmental practice in the
campus, the educational institutions must engage in waste reduction and reuse as effective
ways of reducing the impact of environmental problems (Desa, Kadir, & Yusooff, 2012).
Cognizant of the significant role of education in solid waste management, R.A. 9003 mandates
Philippine learning institutions to integrate into their educational activities the awareness and
practices of solid waste management for the environmental education of all members of the
academic community. The introduction or integration of waste management concepts and
themes through environmental education in school at all levels will improve the understanding
of the members of the academic community on proper waste management and more likely
change their seemingly unfriendly waste management behavior and practices (Ifegbesan, 2010
p. 211). A study by Desa, Kadir & Yusooff (2012) that assessed the attitudes, behavior, and
practices towards the solid waste management of 591 first year students from UKM, Bangi
Campus showed that students have a high level of behavior and practices regarding solid waste
management program. However, the researchers noted that waste education and awareness
strategy are still needed to develop more students' awareness and attitude towards managing
solid waste to reduce the impact of the waste problem on the campus. A similar cross-sectional
study was conducted by Licy et al. (2013) to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice of 300
high school and higher secondary school students on household waste management in Thrissur,
Kerala. Using a selfadministered questionnaire, the findings showed that high school students
were 2017 Madrigal and Oracion 47 more aware of the importance of waste management
compared to higher secondary students. Both groups lacked awareness of e-waste and its
disposal. The findings further indicated that students demonstrated a positive attitude towards
waste management.

Also, no significant difference was found in the awareness and practice of students on waste
management at home. The researcher also pointed out the need for waste management
awareness to improve the practice of waste management. Parents should also be given
environmental education during parentteaching meetings or in community-based programs.
But awareness may not easily be translated into practices. For instance, Ifegbesan (2010)
explored on the level of awareness and practices of waste management of 650 secondary
school students from Ogun State in Nigeria. A selfadministered questionnaire was used, and the
findings showed that students were aware of the serious problem of waste management in
their school, but they had poor waste management practices. It further indicated that their
knowledge and practices with regards to waste management significantly differed when the
students were categorized according to sex, age, and class membership. Likewise, a significant
relationship was observed between the students’ demographic profile and their knowledge and
practices of waste management. The results may be traced to an ineffective waste
management education design for school children. Ehrampoush & Moghadam (2005) also
conducted a cross-sectional study of the knowledge, attitude, and practice of solid waste
disposal and recycling of 237 students from Yazd University of Medical Sciences. Likewise aided
by the selfadministered questionnaire in data gathering, the findings showed that students had
a moderate knowledge of solid waste disposal. Moreover, their knowledge did not influence
them to practice segregation of solid waste. Likewise, the study of Adeolu, Enesi & Adeolu
(2014) on the knowledge, attitude, and practices of 358 students in the secondary school
towards waste management in Ibadan, Nigeria found that the students had a relatively
moderate level of knowledge, attitude, and practice of waste management. But the evidence of
those who used indiscriminate solid waste disposal methods like open dumping and burning is
still higher. The findings also showed that students' sex, age, and class significantly influenced
their level of awareness, knowledge, and practices of waste management. Also, Yildiz, Yilmaz,
Demir, & Toy (2011) conducted a study to find out the awareness and sensibility levels of 350
campus people about environmental problems in Erzurum, Turkey.

The findings revealed that the respondents showed a moderate level of awareness and
sensibility about the environmental problems; but despite their knowledge of the problems, the
subjects of the study never showed interest in them. Another study was conducted by
Müderrisoglu & Atanlar (2011) which investigated the attitudes and behavior of 507
undergraduate students from Abant Yzzet Baysal University toward environmental issues. It
further looked into whether the courses which students attended, their locality and gender
affected their environmental attitudes and behavior. The result showed that students showed
highly supportive environmental attitudes. However, the findings reported that the 48
Recoletos Multidisciplinary Research Journal December courses student took and their locality
did not affect their environmental attitudes, and behaviors. They also concluded that gender
affected environmental attitudes. Women were found to have high environmental attitudes
and behavior compared to men. Correspondingly, Raudsepp (2001) also found a consistent
relationship between demographics such as age, education, and gender and environmental
issues and concerns. Individual differences toward environmental issues may be apparent but
collective action against common threat is not impossible to arrive at which this paper wants to
demonstrate.

2.0 Methodology
3.0 This study utilized the descriptivecorrelational research design to gather relevant
information about the awareness (consciousness or knowledge), attitude (way of thinking,
believing, and feeling), and practices (application or use of knowledge or belief) of solid
waste management of employees and students. The purpose was to identify, describe,
analyze, interpret, and compare correlates of solid waste management (Leedy & Ormrod,
2005). Five hundred sixty-three (563) employees and students of the University of Negros
Occidental-Recoletos, Academic Year 2017- 2018 were the respondents of the study (Table
1). They were determined using multi-stage random sampling method. The sample size for
student group was set at 95% confidence level with 5% margin of error. Based on the
literature review, a researcher-made survey questionnaire was used to gather the data. It
consisted of 30 items distributed among three sections corresponding to awareness,
attitudes, and practices on solid wastes management of employees and students. Ten
statements were listed under each section, expressing a particular parameter in observable
behavioral terms. The respondents responded to each item using the Likert scale such as
Level of Awarenessnever. Table 1.
The questionnaire underwent validity and reliability testing procedures before the
administration. For validity, the questionnaire was assessed by three assessors in the field—
an environmentalist, educator, and a researcher using Good and Scates Jury Validation
Form. Meanwhile, to establish the reliability of the instrument, it was pilot-tested to 30
employees and students of the university but who were not involved in the final survey. The
reliability index yielded 0.80 using Cronbach alpha. The data were analyzed by means of
using descriptive and inferential statistics. The mean was used to determine the level of
awareness, the degree of attitude, and extent of practices on the solid waste management
of the respondents when taken as a whole and when grouped according to status, sex, age,
educational attainment, and religion. Because the data were not normally distributed based
on Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk Tests of Normality, the Kruskall Wallis HTest and
Mann Whitney U-Test were used to determining the significant difference in the awareness,
attitude, and practices of the respondents when grouped according to status and religion,
respectively. Meanwhile, Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was used to test
 if there was a significant relationship between awareness, attitude, and p practices and age,
educational level, and sex

4.0 Results The respondents demonstrated a very high level of awareness (M=4.35) on solid
waste management (Table 2)

Interestingly, both employees and students shared awareness on "Clean as You Go Policy",
responsibility to properly dispose solid wastes at home and in school, the financial resource
which can be generated from solid wastes, and composting organic wastes. Moreover, the
respondents showed a very high attitude (M=3.64) on solid waste management (Table 3)
regardless of status, age, educational level, sex, and religion. Table 3. Degree of attitude on
solid waste management Variable M SD Interpretation Status Student 3.54 0.31 Very High
Faculty 3.82 0.24 Very High Non Teaching Personnel 3.82 0.28 Very High Sex Male 3.63 0.33
Very High Female 3.64 0.32 Very High Generational Age Generation 3.44 0.30 Very High
Millennial 3.61 0.31 Very High Generation X 3.83 0.26 Very High Baby Boomers 3.84 0.29
Very High Educational Level Elementary 3.35 0.33 Very High Junior High School 3.48 0.26
Very High Senior High School 3.65 0.27 Very High College Student 3.54 0.31 Very High
College Graduate 3.79 0.28 Very High Graduate Studies 3.86 0.21 Very High Religion
Catholic 3.65 0.33 Very High Non-Catholic 3.59 0.28 Very High As a Whole 3.64 0.32 Very
High Categorized according to the parameters of their responses in terms of mean scores,
the respondents believed that proper waste management promotes environmental and
human wellness (M=3.93) and the need to educate people about proper waste disposal
(M=3.91); felt embarrassed to throw wastes anywhere (M=3.89) and responsible to dispose
my wastes properly (M=3.84); were concerned of the waste hazards to environment and
human health (M=3.82); were inspired to keep one’s home, school, and community clean
and green (M=3.81); put importance on proper wastes disposal (M=3.79); considered solid
wastes as both environmental and social hazards to be collectively resolved (M=3.77); were
committed to minimize wastes (M=3.74); and took interest in environmental advocacies of
the school and community (M=3.69). 2017 Madrigal and Oracion 51 Comparatively, both
employees and students shared the conviction that proper waste management promoted
environmental and human wellness, commitment to minimize wastes and interest in
environmental advocacies of the school and community. Furthermore, the employees and
students demonstrated a high extent of practices (M=3.73) on solid waste management
(Table 4). Regarding educational level, elementary students showed only a moderate extent
of practices (M=3.12).
Table 4. Extent of practices on solid waste management of employees and students
ranked first which was followed by putting trash in their bags when waste bins are not
available (M=439); taking or buying things as needed (M=4.08); disposing properly
hazardous wastes (M=3.90); reusing and recycling (M=3.77); segregating wastes (M=3.72);
volunteering for cleanups and environmental activities (M=3.34); composting
biodegradable wastes (M=3.20); bringing reusable bags or basket (M=3.14); and attending
environmental programs and activities (M=3.13), respectively. Meanwhile, for both
employees and students, “Clean As You Go,” putting trash in their bags when waste bins
were not available, and taking or buying things as needed were among the highest solid
waste management practices; while volunteering for cleanups and environmental activities
and attending environmental programs and activities ranked as their common lowest
practices. The Kruskall Wallis test was used to determining the significant difference in the
awareness, attitude, and practices when respondents were grouped according to status.
There were significant differences in the awareness *χ2=78.143, p=0.000+, attitude
*χ2=124.485, p=0.000+, and practices *χ2=51.754, p=0.000+ when respondents are
grouped according to status. Also, using Mann Whitney U test to determine the pairwise
difference in the groups, it was found that the students had 52 Recoletos Multidisciplinary
Research Journal December significantly lower awareness, attitude, and practices than that
of faculty and the nonteaching personnel. Moreover, the Mann Whitney U test, showed a
significant difference in the awareness [U=16062.000, p=0.000], attitude [U=18158.000,
p=0.018], and practices [U=16299.500, p=0.000] when respondents were grouped
according to religion. It implies that being a Catholic University, its environmental
education, in general, and waste management program" in particular, were easily
internalized by Catholic students and employees. The Pearson r test showed that awareness
was significantly correlated with age [r(561)=0.316, p=0.000], education [r(561)=0.379,
p=0.000], and sex [r(561)=0.129, p=0.002]. However, no significant correlation was noted
between attitude [r(561)=0.025, p=0.025] and practices [r(561)=0.066, p=0.119] with sex.
Nonetheless, these results further confirmed how maturity in age and education were
significant variables that enhanced positive relationships among the cognitive, affective and
active disposition of individuals toward solid waste management programs. There were
significant correlations between awareness and attitude [r (561)=0.492, p=0.000],
awareness and practices [r (561)=0.520, p=0.000], and attitude and practices [r
(561)=0.412, p=0.000]

Discussion
Overall, the findings confirmed that behavioral intention and attitude indeed influenced
behavior. Meaning to say, the very high awareness and attitude of respondents on solid
waste management favorably influenced their solid wastes disposal practices at home and
in school (Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975; Ajzen, 1991). However, their solid waste disposal
practices did not match their very high-level awareness. The result implies that while
knowledge and attitude may determine the course of person's environmental action, they
must also be aligned with the satisfaction and benefit that a person can derive from being
concerned and committed to environmental initiatives.
Thus, being conscious and convinced of the need to dispose of the solid wastes properly
must be coupled with the person's passion and will to do it because of its benefit to humans
and the environment. This weak and inconsistent relationship between environmental
attitudes and behavior can be attributed to the refusal to abandon the comforts of modern
life (Diekmann & Preisendörfer, 1998 as cited in Desa et al., 2011). In like manner, Pope
Francis (2014) would attribute this to the prevalent throwaway culture and consumerist
lifestyle of our generation.
Moreover, the results indicated the shared consciousness, concern, and effort of the
employees and students of the University to do something about the mounting problem of
solid wastes which endangers the environment and human well-being. It validated the
commitment of the University to environmental sustainability which aims to establish a
clean, greener, and safe campus for all the members of the academic community. In this
context, employees, especially teachers, are expected to demonstrate a more advanced
environmental consciousness, attitudes, and practices. Teachers have the responsibility to
teach and guide students to understand profoundly and respond appropriately to the
problem of solid waste management (Esa, 2010). 2017 Madrigal and Oracion 53 Likewise,
the findings also affirmed of the vital role that academic institutions play in the
environmental education and sustainability. Through their academic and non-academic
programs and initiatives, schools can indeed raise awareness, develop the right attitude,
and promote desirable practices among the students, faculty, and staff which can help
mitigate the growing problem on solid wastes. However, active participation of the
 members of the academic community is importantly needed to integrate and implement
environmental programs, projects, and initiatives. More importantly, more than just being
aware and interested, employees and students must be truly engaged in desirable and
effective ways to reduce the serious impact of the environmental problem such as the
indiscriminate disposal of waste (Desa, Kadir & Yusooff, 2012; R.A. 9003; Ifegbesan, 2010).
Previous studies claiming that awareness and attitude on solid wastes management
problems do not necessarily translate to effective solid waste management practices
(Ehrampoush Moghadam, 2005; Adeolu, Enesi & Adeolu, 2014; Yildiz, Yilmaz, Demir, & Toy,
2011) have been validated by the current findings. Also, the significant difference found in
the awareness, attitude, and practices of respondents when grouped according to status
and religion signifies that employees and Catholics were more aware, disposed, and actively
engaged in solid waste management matters compared to students and non-Catholics.
Possibly, this may be due to the educational attainment, maturity of age, and rich
experiences of employees compared with students. The findings linked to age and
education with solid waste management awareness, attitude, and practices. It merely
implies that the more educated and matured in age the people are, the more aware,
concern, and committed they are towards environmental issues such as the problem of
solid waste (Raudsepp, 2001; Ifegbesan, 2010; Adeolu, Enesi & Adeolu, 2014; GEM Report,
2015). On the other hand, the emphasis on care for the environment with the release of
Pope Francis' encyclical Laudato Si (2014) and environmental inputs embedded in religious
education instructions and environmental seminars and fora may have in a way influenced
the mindset, attitude, and practices of Catholic respondents on solid wastes management.
Furthermore, the findings revealed that females are more conscious about solid waste
management compared with males, negating the findings of previous studies that male are
more knowledgeable on environmental issues such as solid waste management (Abdul-
Wahab & Abdo, 2010; Esa, 2010). In fact, related studies showed that women perceive and
exhibit more environmental sensitivity compared to men (Paco, Raposo, & Fiho, 2009).
According to International Institute for Sustainable Development (2013), women advocate
and support environment-friendly products than men. Nevertheless, regarding attitude,
and practices, men, and women were both have positive attitude and practices of solid
waste management. Sex has no correlation with attitude and practices. The finding did not
support previous studies on the relationship between the practice of waste management
and sex (Raudsepp, 2001; Eero, Grendstad & Wollebaek, 2001; Ifegbesan, 2010). Finally, the
findings affirmed that indeed there is a close association between knowledge, attitude, and
practices on solid waste management. It found concurrence with the previous studies
conducted (Jones 54 Recoletos Multidisciplinary Research Journal December & Dunlap,
1992; Scott & Willets, 1994; McKenzie-Mohr, Nemeroff, Beers & Desamrais, 1995; Bradley,
Waliczek & Zajicek, 1999; Franson & Garling, 1999; Raudsepp, 2001 Eero, Grenstad
Wolleback, 2001; Ifegbesan, 2010).

5.0 Conclusion
This paper has demonstrated that solid waste management awareness, attitude, and
practices of students and University employees are closely linked, which suggests that one
strategic approach to implement successfully a solid waste management program is
education. The school plays an important role on making individuals conscious of the
consequences of their actions (i.e., reasoned action), in terms of costs and benefits (i.e.,
rational choice), and on planning appropriate ways (i.e., planned behavior) to ensure the
realization of what are desired for human and environmental well-being. More specifically,
with effective environmental education the members of the academic community become
more concerned with the mounting problem of solid wastes, have developed positive
attitudes, and drive them into collective action in mitigating the problem. As centers of
learning, the educational goals, objectives, and undertakings of the schools can facilitate
the integration of environmental awareness, skills, and values which will undoubtedly
transform the ways of thinking and actions of employees and students with regards to
indiscriminate waste disposal at school and in the home. This is a valuable contribution of
academic institutions to promoting and ensuring the quality of human life and common
good through environmental protection and sustainability in the campus. For an effective
implementation of the law known as Solid Waste Management Act, it is recommended that
a school-based Solid Waste Management Program had to be institutionalized and sustained
to facilitate comprehensive awareness, foster ethical attitude, and form
environmentfriendly practices relative to solid waste management among members of the
academic community towards a safer, healthier, and more sustainable university campus.

References
Adeolu, A. T., Enesi, D. O., & Adeolu, M. O. (2014). Assessment of secondary school
students’ Knowledge, attitude and practice towards waste management in Ibadan, Oyo
State, Nigeria. Journal of Research in Environmental Science and Toxicology, 3(5), 66-73.
Abdul-Wahab, S. A. & Abdo, J. (2010). The effects of demographic factors on the
environmental awareness of Omani citizens. Hum Ecol Risk Assess, 16(2): 380–401. Ahmad,
J., Noor, S. M., & Ismail, N. (2015). Investigating students’ environmental knowledge,
attitude, practice and communication. Asian Social Science, 11(16), 284. Atienza, V.A.
(2008). A breakthrough in solid waste management through participation and community
mobilization: The experience of Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines. Japanese Institutional
Repositories Online, 17-34. Retrieved from http://rcube.ritsumei.
ac.jp/bitstream/10367/231/1/RJAPS24_ A%20Breakthrough%20in%20Solid%20W
 *Forecasting the Number of Fire Accidents in the Philippines through Multiple Linear
Regression
Jackie D. Urrutia1 , Sheryl V. Villaverde1 , Nathalie T. Algario1 , Rolan J. Malvar1 , Audie B. Oliquino1 and
Leila A. Gano2
DOI: 10.17485/ijst/2018/v11i20/123341, May 2018

Abstract Objectives:

The main objective of this study is to forecast the number of fire for the years 2016 to 2020 that is
possible to occur in the Philippines and to find the best fit multiple linear regression models for the said
variable. Methods/Statistical analysis: The secondary data of Electrical Connections, Electrical
Appliances, Spontaneous Combustion, Open Flame due to Unattended Cooking/Stove, Open Flame due
to Torch, Open Flame due to Lighted Candle, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Explosion due to Direct
Flame Contact/Static Electricity, Lighted Cigarette Butt, Lighted Matchstick/Lighter, Under Investigation,
and Others that was used in the study were gathered from Philippine bureau of fire protection. The data
were analyzed by the use of statistical software such as EViews7 and MATLAB. Findings: In this paper,
we showed that the independent variables namely, Electrical Connections, Electrical Appliances,
Spontaneous Combustion, Open Flame due to Unattended Cooking/Stove, Open Flame due to Torch,
Open Flame due to Lighted Candle, LPG Explosion due to Direct Flame Contact/Static Electricity, Lighted
Cigarette Butt, Lighted Matchstick/Lighter, Under Investigation, and Others significantly affect the
dependent variables which is the number of fire accidents. A normal estimation equation was derived to
be the model that is best fit in predicting the number of fire for the year 2016 to 2020 through Multiple
Linear Regression. Application/Improvements: This paper will be of help in raising the awareness of the
citizen and the local government unit that is concerned in this matter to be prepared and allocate more
effort in preventing a great damage caused by fire accidents

Keywords: Fire Accidents, Forecasting, Multiple Linear Regression, Normal Estimation Equation,
MATLAB

Introduction

Fuel, heat, and air, when these three sustain a chemical reaction, a fire is produce through the process
of oxidation. Fire is considered as a need for daily life basis. As long as fire is under human’s control, it is
significantly useful, but once it gets out of hand, it causes destruction. Fire accident can be a threat to
one’s life, property, or even to a nation’s economy. It usually takes place with enormous economy losses
and casualty of personnel. It is considered as an adverse event with tangible costs to property and
human life. According to World Fire Statistics, it is estimated cost due to losses from fire accidents is
approximately one percent of global Gross Domestic Product per annum1 . A total of 883 fires and 824
fire-related casualties were reported from 2010 to 2012 in the Philippines, and the most number of
occurrences is recorded in National Capital Region2 . According to the International Association of Fire
and Rescue Services, there are 2.5 to 4.5 million fires that occur every year, and 21 to 62 thousand
deaths are recorded as fire casualties3 . Such number of fire accidents can be lessened if it is
systematically planned to prevent casualties and losses. The goal of this paper is to create a
mathematical model that can be used to predict fire accidents. In this study, the causes of fire such as
electrical connections, electrical appliances, spontaneous combustion, open flame due to unattended
cooking/ stove, open flame due Vol 11 (20) | May 2018 | www.indjst.org Indian Journal of Science and
Technology 2 Forecasting the Number of Fire Accidents in the Philippines through Multiple Linear
Regression to torch, open flame due to unattended lighted candle, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
explosion due to direct flame contact/static electricity, lighted cigarette butt, lighted matchstick/lighter,
under investigation and others are considered as the independent variables and the number of fire
accidents as the dependent variable. 2. Method This chapter focuses on the methods used by the
researchers in this study. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) Analysis is a statistical approach used to
describe the simultaneous associations of several variables with one continuous outcome4 . It is a
generalization of the simple linear regression analysis5 . To conduct the Multiple Linear Regression
analysis, there are assumptions that are needed to be satisfied which includes the following6 : 1. Linear
Relationship between the outcome variable and the independent variables, 2. Normally Distributed
Residuals, 3. Absence of multicollinearity, and 4. Homoscedasticity. If the assumptions of the multiple
linear regressions are all satisfied then the regression can be conducted with its model as: y x x x i i i k ki i
= + β β 0 1 1 2 + + β β 2 ... + + µ (1) where y is the dependent variable, x is the independent variables, β is
the predicted value of the dependent variable when the independent variables are zero, and µ is the
error. Correlation is the degree to which two or more attributes or measurements on the same group of
elements show a tendency to vary together7 . The formula for correlation coefficients is8 : r N xy x y N x
x N y y = − − − ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ( )( ) [ ( ) ][ ( ) ] 2 2 2 2 (2) where r is the Pearson coefficient, N is the total
number of observations, x is the independent variable, and y is the dependent variable. Paired T-test is a
test whether the mean difference in the pairs is different from zero9 . The formula for the paired t-test
is as follows:

Method

This chapter focuses on the methods used by the researchers in this study. Multiple Linear Regression
(MLR) Analysis is a statistical approach used to describe the simultaneous associations of several variables
with one continuous outcome4 . It is a generalization of the simple linear regression analysis5 . To conduct
the Multiple Linear Regression analysis, there are assumptions that are needed to be satisfied which
includes the following6 : 1. Linear Relationship between the outcome variable and the independent
variables, 2. Normally Distributed Residuals, 3. Absence of multicollinearity, and 4. Homoscedasticity. If
the assumptions of the multiple linear regressions are all satisfied then the regression can be conducted
with its model as: y x x x i i i k ki i = + β β 0 1 1 2 + + β β 2 ... + + µ (1) where y is the dependent variable, x
is the independent variables, β is the predicted value of the dependent variable when the independent
variables are zero, and µ is the error. Correlation is the degree to which two or more attributes or
measurements on the same group of elements show a tendency to vary together7 . The formula for
correlation coefficients is8 : r N xy x y N x x N y y = − − − ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ( )( ) [ ( ) ][ ( ) ] 2 2 2 2 (2) where r is
the Pearson coefficient, N is the total number of observations, x is the independent variable, and y is the
dependent variable.

. Results and Discussions The graph of the actual number of fire incidents in Figure 1 shows that the
number of fire incidents in the Philippines increased from 2005 to 2015. The highest number of fire
incidents was actually on March 2015 with 2,863 fires. Figure 1. 2005 to 2015 fire incidents in the
Philippines. Figure 2. Fire Incidents in the Philippines due to electrical connection. Indian Journal of
Science and Technology Vol 11 (20) | May 2018 | www.indjst.org 3 Jackie D. Urrutia, Sheryl V. Villaverde,
Nathalie T. Algario, Rolan J. Malvar, Audie B. Oliquino and Leila A. Gano The graph of the fires caused by
unattended cooking/ stove as shown in Figure 5 reached the highest peak on March 2015 with 133 fire
incidents and the lowest trough was on May 2008 with 15 number of fire incidents. The highest peak of
the graph of open flame due to torch as shown in Figure 6 was on April 2014 with 442 fire incidents. This
cause of fire was also one of the top causes of fire incidents for the past years. Figure 7 shows the graph
of fire incidents due to lighted candle or gasera. It shows that from the year 2005 to 2010, the number of
fire incidents gradually increased. On 2011, the number of fire incidents suddenly went up where the
recorded highest number of fire incident dated from the month of March. While the lowest number of
fire incidents because of opens flame due to lighted candle was dated on June 2011. The number of fire
incidents due to electrical connection as shown in Figure 2 rocketed from 2005 to 2015 with the highest
peak on May 2014 with 446 incidents and lowest trough on March 2007 with 135 incidents. The graph of
fire incidents due to electrical appliances as shown in Figure 3 states that the highest number of fire
incidents dated on March 2007 with 54 incidents. In 2014, the third highest number of fire incidents
happened caused by electrical appliances were 2.5% of the total number of fire incidents on the said year
with 396 fire incidents. The graph of fire incidents due to spontaneous combustion as shown in Figure 4
reached the highest level on March 2005 with 138 fire incidents while the lowest level was on December
2011 with only one fire incident nationwide. Figure 3. Fire incidents in the Philippines due to electrical
appliances. Figure 4. Fire incidents in the Philippines due to spontaneous combustions. Figure 6. Fire
incidents in the Philippines due to torch or sulo Figure 5. Fire incidents in the Philippines due to
unattended cooking/stove. Vol 11 (20) | May 2018 | www.indjst.org Indian Journal of Science and
Technology 4 Forecasting the Number of Fire Accidents in the Philippines through Multiple Linear
Regression Figure 8 shows the graph of fire incidents that happens in the Philippines due to LPG explosion.
It shows that from 2005 to 2007, the number of fire incidents nationwide never went up to 20 but the
graph rocketed up on 2008 specifically on the month of April with 56 number of fire incidents. On the first
month of the summer in the Philippines, the number of fire incidents suddenly grew up with 53 fire
incidents. The graph of fire incidents in the Philippines due to lighted cigarette butt exhibits a gradual
increase of fire incidents from 2005 to the first quarter of 2010 then it slightly went down from June 2010
until the last month of 2013 as shown in figure 9. But the number of fire incidents rocketed on the year
2014 on its first month with 294 accidents and slightly went down again on 2015. The lowest trough in
the said graph was on July 2006 and October 2007 with 5 numbers of incidents. The graph of fire incidents
in the Philippines due to lighted matchstick/lighter shows a gentle increase in number of fire incidents
from 2005 to the third month of 2013 as shown in Figure 10. But on April 2013, the number of fire
incidents peaked with 103 fire incidents. Then it sharply went down on the next month and never went
up again on a three-digit number of fire incidents until 2015. The graph of fire incidents in the Philippines
with unknown cause and still under investigation exhibits the highest peak on the last year of the data
gathered as shown Figure 7. Fire incidents in the Philippines due to lighted candle/gasera Figure 8. Fire
incidents in the Philippines due to LPG explosion. Figure 9. Fire incidents in the Philippines due to lighted
cigarette butt. Figure 10. Fire incidents in the Philippines due to lighted matchstick/lighter. Indian Journal
of Science and Technology Vol 11 (20) | May 2018 | www.indjst.org 5 Jackie D. Urrutia, Sheryl V.
Villaverde, Nathalie T. Algario, Rolan J. Malvar, Audie B. Oliquino and Leila A. Gano in Figure 11, specifically
on the month of March with 457 number of fire incidents while the lowest through was on September
2009 and October 2010 with just 30 number of the said incident. There were other causes of fire incidents
that were not specifically designated as the above causes. The graph of the other causes of fire incidents
as shown in Figure 12 states that the highest level was on March 2015 with 946 number of fire incidents.
It was also the biggest number of fire incidents among all the factors in this paper, while the lowest level
was on January 2008 with only 14 number of fire incidents nationwide. It is then concluded that the
highest number of fire incidents in terms of the stated causes in this paper from 2005 to 2015 occurred
mostly on the summer season, specifically on the month of March and April, in the Philippines. 3.1
Significant Relationship of the Independent Variables to the Number of Fire Incidents in the Philippines
The researchers examine whether the independent variables have a significant relationship on the
dependent variable. A Pearson’s correlation was done to determine the relationship between dependent
variable and the independent variables. According to the Pearson coefficient of correlation as shown in
Table 1, the given eleven causes of fire incidents have a positive significant linear relationship with the
number of fire incidents that occurred from 2005 to 2015 in the Philippines. The null hypothesis indicates
that there is no significant relationship between the two variables. Table 1. Significant Relationship of the
Variables of the Fire Incidents in the Philippines Variables R p-value Decision Interpretation Electrical
Connections 0.4562 0.000 Reject Ho Significant Electrical Appliances 0.3123 0.000 Reject Ho Significant
Spontaneous Combustion 0.7190 0.000 Reject Ho Significant Unattended Cooking 0.8130 0.000 Reject Ho
Significant Torch 0.8269 0.000 Reject Ho Significant Lighted Candle 0.5332 0.000 Reject Ho Significant LPG
Explosion 0.2236 0.000 Reject Ho Significant Lighted Cigarette Butt 0.8701 0.000 Reject Ho Significant
Lighted Matchstick or Lighter 0.7667 0.000 Reject Ho Significant Under investigation 0.8263 0.000 Reject
Ho Significant Other causes 0.9007 0.000 Reject Ho Significant Figure 11. Fire incidents in the Philippines
under investigation Figure 12. Other causes of fire incidents in the Philippines. Vol 11 (20) | May 2018 |
www.indjst.org Indian Journal of Science and Technology 6 Forecasting the Number of Fire Accidents in
the Philippines through Multiple Linear Regression With a significance level of 0.01, the null hypothesis
was rejected because the p-values are all less than 0.01. 3.2 Mathematical Model in Forecasting the
Number of Fire Incidents in the Philippines Using Multiple Linear Regression, the mathematical model for
estimating the number of fire incidents was obtained. It is written as: ˘ . . . . . . . y x x x x x x = + + + + + + +
17 115 0 990 1 035 0 977 1 116 0 999 1 004 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 027 0 924 1 150 1 002 1 017 7 8 9 10 11 . . . . . x
+ + xxx + + x The obtained model has an R-squared or coefficient of determination of 0.999 indicating that
the statistical measure of the data to the regression line is definitely close. To validate the mathematical
model that was obtained, the table of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) are
as follows. RMSE in Table 2 tells how concentrated the data around the line of best fit. It is the standard
deviation of the residuals or prediction errors. Residuals are defined as a measure of how far data points
from the regression line. RMSE is the measure of how residuals are spread out. MSE tells how a regression
line is close to a set of points by getting the distance from the points to the regression line, where these
distances are the errors, and getting the square of this distance. Squaring the distance removes any
negative signs and gives more weight to larger differences. 3.3 Significant Factors After solving the
mathematical model for forecasting the number of fire incidents for 2016-2020, the researchers tested
whether the independent variables have an effect on the dependent variable. According to Table 3, all of
the independent variables are significant factors that affect the dependent variable since the p-value is
less than the level of significance. It is therefore concluded that the eleven causes of fire accidents have
an effect to the number of fire incidents in the Philippines from 2005 to 2015. 3.4 Actual and Predicted
Values The researchers plot the graph of the actual values and predicted values of the fire incidents in the
Philippines as shown figure 13 to exhibit in graph the differences of the two said values with the aid of
MATLAB. The previous graph in Figure 13 exhibits a close line graph between actual values and predicted
values of the number of fire incidents nationwide. The highest peak of the predicted value, with 2,867 fire
incidents, is higher than the actual value with 2,863 number of fire incidents. The lowest trough of the
actual value with 456 number of fire incidents is lower than the predicted value with 464 fire incidents.
Table 2. Error of the Model Root Mean Square Error Mean Square Error 13.7 171.2236 Table 3. Significant
factors of the fire incidents in the Philippines Variables β p-value Electrical Connections 17.115 0.000
Electrical Appliances 0.9697 0.000 Spontaneous Combustion 1.0349 0.000 Unattended Cooking 0.9765
0.000 Torch 1.116 0.000 Lighted Candle 0.9987 0.000 LPG Explosion 1.0037 0.000 Lighted Cigarette Butt
1.0273 0.000 Lighted Matchstick or Lighter 0.9236 0.000 Under investigation 1.1498 0.000 Other causes
1.0165 0.000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Months Number of Fire Incidents
Difference Between Actual and Predicted Value Actual Value Predicted Value Figure 13. Graph of the
actual values and predicted values of the fire incidents in the Philippines. Indian Journal of Science and
Technology Vol 11 (20) | May 2018 | www.indjst.org 7 Jackie D. Urrutia, Sheryl V. Villaverde, Nathalie T.
Algario, Rolan J. Malvar, Audie B. Oliquino and Leila A. Gano Table 4 shows that the predicted values of
the number of fire incidents have no significant difference from its actual values since the p-value is 1.000,
accepting the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis indicates that there is no significant difference between
the actual and predicted values of the dependent variable. 4. Conclusions The number of fire incidents
from 2005 to 2015 is continually increasing. Using the Pearson Correlation Analysis, the researchers
concluded that all the causes of fire incidents in this paper are significant to the number of fire incidents
in the country. Through Multiple Linear Regression, the researchers formulated a mathematical model for
estimating the number of fire incidents in the Philippines. The said model is good enough in predicting the
number of fire incidents for 2016 to 2020 with a coefficient of determination of 0.9999. A Paired T-test is
executed to show that there is no significant difference between the actual values and the predicted
values obtained using the formulated model. Since all the 13 variables were significant factors in the
different fire incidents in the Philippines, it is highly recommended that the government, in line with the
fire prevention month of the Philippines, should conduct a trainings and seminars that will equip its
citizens the necessary skills in preventing fire incidents specially in the poor class community. This is
because the model states that among the 13 factors of fire incidents, unattended lighted candles were
the most significant factor.

References

1. The Geneva Association. Fire and Climate Risk. 2014. Available at: http://genevaassociation.org/
media/874729/ ga2014-wfs29.pdf. 2. Velasco G. Epidemiological Assessment of Fires in the Philippines.
2013. Available at: http://dirp4.pids.gov.ph/ris/ dps/pidsdps1335.pdf. 3. Malucelli G. Surface-Engineered
Fire Protective Coatings for Fabrics through Sol-Gel and Layer-by-Layer Methods: An Overview. 2016.
Available at: Crossref. 4. Zhan-li M. Application of Grey-Markov Model in Forecasting Fire Accidents. 2011.
Available at: Crossref. 5. Zhanli M. Disastrous Forecasting of Fire Accidents in Assembly Occupancies.
2012. Available at: Crossref. 6. Hansen R. Regression Analysis of Wild Fire Suppression, Swedish Civil
Contingencies Agency. 2012. Available at: www.divaportal.org/smash/get/ diva2:679778/FULLTEXT01.
pdf. 7. Park K. Analyses on Related Factors with Fire Damage in Korea. 2015.
http://www.kgeography.or.kr/homepage/ kgeography/www/old/publishing/journal/50/03/07.pdf. 8.
Ancog R. Fire Occurrence and Fire Mitigation Strategies in a Grassland Reforestation Area in the
Philippines. 2016. Available at: Crossref. 9. Trillanes A. Temporal Analysis and Geo-Mapping of Fire
Incidents in the City of Manila. 2015. Available at: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/ 7393211/.
 The occurrence of 'kaingin' within the Cleopatra's Needle Critical Habitat, Palawan,
Philippines
Conference Paper · July 2018
Paris N. Marler Centre for Sustainability PH, Inc, PENRO Road, Puerto Princesa, 5300 Palawan,
Philippines, pariscsph@gmail.com

Introduction

The Philippines is a global biodiversity hotspot with extraordinarily high rates of species richness and
endemism (Myers et al. 2000; Sodhi et al. 2004). Unfortunately, deforestation has plagued the country:
about 90% of the Philippines was covered with forest when the Spanish arrived in the 16th century, but
after three centuries of Spanish rule, half a century of American and Japanese occupation, and several
decades of relatively unregulated logging by wealthy concessionaries, the country was left with
approximately 20% forest cover (Suarez & Sajise 2010). Of the approximately 6 million ha of forest that
remain in the Philippines, less than 1 million ha are primary forest (Lasco et al. 2001). Kaingin, or slash
and burn agriculture, increased after the logging brutalities as the growing human population, who had
no other economic opportunities, often migrated upland to perform kaingin to earn a living (Suarez &
Sajise 2010). The loss of forests has also led to the detribalization and socioeconomic marginalization of
indigenous communities (Eder 1990), who directly depend on the forest for their livelihood and have
traditionally practiced kaingin for centuries.

Palawan, or the Philippines’ “last ecological frontier,” holds >50% forest cover, yet logging threats are
still prevalent; deforestation rates on the island reached 11% between 2000-2005 (Mallari et al. 2011).
In recent decades, people have also immigrated to Palawan from other parts of the country, putting
more pressure on the land to sustain farming and increasing the need for opportunities for the larger
population (Shivley & Martinez 2001). Centre for Sustainability PH, Inc. was part of a collaborative effort
to protect Cleopatra’s Needle Critical Habitat (CNCH) in 2016, safeguarding this forest from foreign
deforestation pressures. The critical habitat is home to the Batak tribe, a quickly disappearing
indigenous peoples group only found in Palawan, and the Tagbanua Tribe, one of the oldest ethnic
groups within the Philippines.

Efforts are necessary and ongoing to formulate policies within the CNCH that continue to protect the
plants and animals within its domain, while respecting the ancestral rights of these indigenous peoples
(IP) communities. This study analyzes the occurrence of kaingin within the CNCH from the years 2012 to
2016 using available satellite imagery.

Methodology

Study Area. The CNCH is in Puerto Princesa, Palawan, Philippines, approximately 50 kilometers north of
Puerto Princesa City proper (Figure 1A). Seven political districts, locally called ‘barangays,’ comprise the
41,350-hectare critical habitat: New Pangangan, Langogan, Binduyan, Concepcion, Tanabag, San Rafael,
and Tagabinet. The centerpiece of the CNCH is Cleopatra’s Needle Mountain (10o 07’ 26” N, 118o 59’
43” E; 1,593 masl). The CNCH is adjacent to the Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park
(PPSRNP), which extends to the west coast of the island. The critical habitat is bordered by the Sulu Sea
to the south. Major vegetation types include: riverine forest, montane forest, lowland evergreen forest,
beach forest, and cultivated land for perennial and annual crops. Methods. The boundaries of the CNCH
were mapped onto Google Earth Pro© V7.3 using the official list of coordinates for the critical habitat
(Figure 1A). A grid of 1 km by 1 km cells was then drawn over the CNCH map on Google Earth Pro© V7.3.
Approximately 438 cells were used to cover the critical habitat (Figure 1B). Each 1 km2 cell was
inspected for signs of forest scarring, indicated by brown patches, from the available satellite imagery. A
buffer zone of 200 m was used from the CNCH boundary inward, so that any kaingin plots within this
buffer zone were not included in the analysis. Satellite imagery was only used if the image was clear
enough to discern a brown patch from the surrounding green forest and if the image was in color. Using
these guidelines, satellite images from 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016 were ultimately used in this analysis.
Cloud cover occasionally, yet rarely, obstructed the view of the forest below, in which cases proper
examination of the area was not possible. Once a kaingin plot was distinguished, a placemark was put in
its corresponding cell and the plot size was measured using the ruler tool in the toolbar and the polygon
option within the ruler; the area was measured in meters and recorded along with the cell location and
year of the image. When multiple kaingin plots were observed in one cell, all plot sizes were measured
and recorded. The average and standard deviation were calculated from the kaingin plot areas. For each
year of available satellite images, the area within the reserve containing viewable imagery was
measured in hectares and the number of plots per hectare for each year was calculated

Figure 1. Google Earth Pro© images of northern Puerto Princesa, Palawan, Philippines showing (A) the
outline of Cleopatra’s Needle Critical Habitat and (B) the gridwork of 1 km2 cells over the critical habitat.
Results and Discussion A total of 116 kaingin plots were recorded within the boundaries of the CNCH
between 2012 and 2016; 49 of the 1 km2 cells in the grid were found to contain at least one occurrence
of kaingin. The greatest density of kaingin plots per hectare was recorded in 2015
 (Figure 2). The average size of the 116 kaingin plots was 7,284.2 m2 with a standard deviation of
6,223.2 m2 . The largest recorded plot was 31,875 m2 in 2015, within 1 km of the CNCH boundary in
Langogan. The largest number of plots were found to be between 2,500 m2 and 4,999 m2 in size

(Figure 3).

Conclusion & Policy Recommendations

Satellite remote imagery has become more open-access over the recent years (Turner et al. 2015); yet
gaps remain in the quality and availability of Landsat images. The variance in plots per hectare visualized
in this study (Figure 2) is influenced by the availability of satellite imagery and the specific location of the
available imagery for each year. While 2013 seems to have a very low density of kaingin plots, this is
likely caused by the location of the small amount of imagery for this year. Imagery from 2013 was only
available near the southern portion of Bgy. Langogan within the CNCH, yet not near the sitios; since
kaingin is traditionally practiced by the IP 0 0.0005 0.001 0.0015 0.002 0.0025 2012 2013 2015 2016
Plots per ha Year Kaingin Plots per Hectare 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Number of Plots Kaingin Plot Size (m2 )
Kaingin Plot Size Distribution communities, more kaingin plots would have likely been recorded this year
if the areas near the sitios were visible via the satellite imagery. Similarly, the density of plots per
hectare for 2015 would have likely been lower if the satellite imagery allowed for complete visibility of
the critical habitat. For 2015, portions of mountainous regions were obscured by cloud cover and areas
further from the sitios lacked imagery; these areas likely did not have kaingin plots, but if the area could
have been included to calculate the density, the density would have been lowered. In certain areas of
the CNCH, kaingin clearings have become larger and greater in quantity over the observed years. Figure
4 shows the progression of several kaingin plots neighboring the Langogan River, approximately 4 km
from the critical habitat’s boundary. These clearings are close to Sitio Manggapin, which is home to the
Batak tribe. The largest clearing in Figure 4C is approximately 26,706 m2 , which puts it in the second
largest kaingin plot size category for the recorded plots (Figure 4). A kaingin plot of this magnitude
seems too large to have been created through IP activities (Pers. Comm. Edgar D. Jose, MSc). Interviews
with community members in Sitio Manggapin can help us understand if non-IP farmers are creating
these plots. From there, we can better formulate land-use regulations to ensure these farmers do not
use the critical habitat for farming; such regulations could be enforced by IP community members or by
other personnel within the critical habitat.

Figure 4. Google Earth Pro© image of an area neighboring the Langogan River within Cleopatra’s Needle
Critical Habitat illustrating (A) kaingin clearings in April 2015, (B) regreened clearings in January 2016,
and (C) kaingin clearings in April 2016. A major issue with the use of IP land by non-IP farmers and with
the increase in human population, and thus increased stress on the land to provide, is its link to
insufficient fallow periods between kaingin plots (Suarez & Sajise 2010). Prolonged cultivation in one
area with insufficient fallow periods prevents forest regeneration and renders the sites agriculturally
useless; these sites then experience soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, river sedimentation, and invasion
by grasses (Suarez & Sajise 2010). Longer fallow periods, sometimes up to 30 years, allow forests to
regrow, soil to regenerate and biodiversity to return (Mukul et al. 2015; 2016). The two kaingin plots in
Figure 4A (April 2015) have regreened by Figure 4B (January 2016), however, the vegetation type is
unknown from the satellite imagery. Further field studies surveying the secondary succession in
regreened areas within the CNCH will provide a background of the species that return to these areas
following kaingin and how the forest within the CNCH responds to kaingin. Working with the Batak and
Tagbanua tribes, policies can be formulated tying the scientific findings from these surveys to the
traditional kaingin practices of the tribes. Such policies can enable secondary forests to regenerate and
the tribes can more effectively manage their kaingin plots for future generations and for the health of
the forest.

References

Eder JF. 1990. Deforestation and detribalization in the Philippines: The Palawan case. Population and
Environment. 12(2): 99-115. Lasco RD, Visco RG, & Pulhin JM. 2001.

Secondary forests in the Philippines: formation and transformation in the 20th century. Journal of
Tropical Forest Science. 13(4): 652-670. Mallari NAD, Collar NJ, Lee DC, McGowan PJK, Wilkinson R &
Marsden SJ. 2011.

Population densities of understorey birds across a habitat gradient in Palawan, Philippines: implications
for conservation. Oryx. 45(2): 234-242. Mukul SA, Herbohn J, & Firn J. 2015.

Rapid recovery of tree diversity over forest structure in post-kaingin secondary forests in the upland
Philippines. Student Conference on Conservation Science Australia. Mukul SA, Herbohn J, & Firn J. 2016.
Co‐benefits of biodiversity and carbon sequestration from regenerating secondary forests in the
Philippine uplands: implications for forest landscape restoration.

Biotropica. 48(6): 882-889. Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, Da Fonseca GA, & Kent J. 2000.
Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature. 403(6772): 853. Shively G & Martinez E. 2001.
Deforestation, irrigation, employment, and cautious optimism in southern Palawan, the Philippines. In:
Angelsen A. and Kaimowitz D. (eds). Agricultural technologies and tropical deforestation. CABI
Publishing, New York: 335-346. Sodhi NS, Koh LP, Brook BW, & Ng PK. 2004. Southeast Asian
biodiversity: an impending disaster.

Trends in ecology & evolution. 19(12): 654-660. Suarez RK & Sajise PE. 2010. Deforestation, swidden
agriculture and Philippine biodiversity. Philippine Science Letters. 3(1): 91-99. Turner W, Rondinini C,
Pettorelli N, Mora B, Leidner AK, Szantoi Z, Buchanan G, Dech S, Dwyer J, Herold M and Koh LP. 2015.
Free and open-access satellite data are key to biodiversity conservation. Biological Conservation. 182:
173-176.
 Towards Developing Science of Survival (SOS) Pamphlets for Typhoon, Flashflood, Storm
Surge and Tsunami and for Earthquakes and Their Aftermath: A Pilot Study
To cite this article: Nivere, G., Camacho, V., M., Sia, S., R., Avilla, R., Butron, B., Fernandez, E., V., Pastor,
C., J., Reyes, A. & Palomar, B. (2017). Towards developing science of survival (SOS) pamphlets for
typhoon, flashflood, storm surge and tsunami and for earthquakes and their aftermath: A pilot study.
International Electronic Journal of Environmental Education, 7(1), 59-77.

Abstract

The catastrophic devastation from recent natural calamities in the Philippines such as Typhoon Yolanda
and Central Visayas earthquake in 2013 had made disaster preparedness a primary concern in the
country. Prompted by the critical need to use science to save lives, this study developed Science of
Survival (SOS) pamphlets titled When the Wind Rages and Water Rises: A Science of Survival Pamphlet
for Typhoon, Flashflood, Storm Surge and Tsunami and When the Earth Moves: A Science of Survival
Pamphlet for Earthquakes and Their Aftermath (Liquefaction, Fire, Landslide and Tsunami). The study
used the` developmental research design consisting of three phases: needs and context analysis phase,
design, development and formative evaluation phase, and semi-summative evaluation phase. By
carefully documenting the iterative process of analysis, design, evaluation and revision, insights were
sought with regard to the development of pamphlets that provide useful and scientifically accurate
information about surviving natural calamities such as typhoons and earthquakes. Experts from
government agencies involved in disaster risk reduction and management, science experts in the
university, and students who were victims of major disasters reviewed and evaluated the pamphlets.
The results of the semi-summative quantitative evaluation showed that both pamphlets are highly
acceptable as supplementary resource materials on disaster response and management.

Keywords: disaster response, earthquake, flashflood, natural calamity, pamphlets, science of survival,
storm surge, typhoon

Introduction

The United Nations report (2015) on the role of science and technology in disaster reduction claimed
that coping with hazards - whether natural or attributable to human activity - is one of the greatest
challenges of the applications of science and technology in the 21st Century. While the occurrence of
earthquakes or typhoons cannot be prevented, the report argues that we can apply the scientific
knowledge and technical know-how that we already have to reduce human suffering and damage to
natural and built environments.

Disaster reduction is both possible and feasible if the sciences and technologies related to natural
hazards are properly applied. This study represents one such effort to use scientific knowledge to help
save lives in times of natural disaster. It aims to develop science of survival pamphlets that provide
useful and accurate information about surviving typhoons and earthquakes through an iterative process
of analysis, design, evaluation and revision.

The Philippines’ location on the Ring of Fire and close to the equator provides it with abundant natural
resources and some of the world’s greatest biodiversity. However, it also makes the country prone to
recurring hazards such as typhoons, storm surges, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and
landslides. More than 20 typhoons hit the country every year, which makes the coastline of its 7000
islands vulnerable to storm surges. With the recurrence of large-scale disasters in recent years like
Typhoon Ondoy in 2009 (> 400 deaths) , Typhoon Sendong in 2011 (> 1300 deaths), and Typhoon
Yolanda in 2013 (> 6200 deaths), the “unprecendented” is becoming the new “normal” in the Philippines
(Montejo, 2015). Since the 1600s, the Philippines has endured 106 earthquakes with a magnitude of
more than 6.0. One of the most devastating earthquakes in recent times hit the Northern part of Luzon
on July 16, 1990. The 7.8 magnitude earthquake left 2 412 people dead and around $369.6 million worth
of damages to property. On October 15, 2013, Central Visayas was rocked by a 7.2 magnitude
earthquake, leaving 28 people dead and damaging buildings and historical sites across the region,
particularly in Bohol and Cebu (Rappler, 2015). In comparison with other countries, the Philippines’
vulnerability to natural disasters is unusually high.

Verisk-Maplecroft conducted an analysis of the combined risk posed by storms, floods, tsunamis,
earthquakes, fires, volcanoes and landslides in more than 1,300 cities. The results showed that of the 10
world cities most exposed to natural hazards, Nivera et al. 61 eight are in the Philippines (Business
Mirror, 2015). In fact, the Philippines is ranked as the third most disaster-prone country in the world out
of 173 countries, after Vanuatu and the Republic of Palau, (United Nations Philippines, 2015). The
Philippines also has the unfortunate honor of topping the ranking of countries suffering from extreme
weather, according to a new report published by the German think tank Germanwatch (Bloomberg,
2014). The report classifies countries into two categories: countries high in the rankings because they
are regularly hit by extreme events, and countries hit by “exceptional catastrophes” that cause their
ranking to soar. The Philippines has the distinction of fitting in both categories, since it not only gets lots
of bad storms, it also suffers from unusually fierce weather events that may become more common with
global climate change (Bloomberg, 2014).

According to the World Bank (2015) report on the Philippines, this inherently high disaster risk is
aggravated by the effects of unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation, and global climate
change. To make matters worse, the country also has poor institutional and societal capacity to manage,
respond and recover from natural hazard events. The country’s level of preparedness for catastrophic
events was put to a severe test recently when the most powerful and destructive typhoon in recent
memory, Typhoon Yolanda (International name: Haiyan), struck the country on November 8, 2013. The
typhoon left 6,300 dead, 1,061 missing, 28,689 injured and more than one million houses totally or
partially damaged (NDRRMC, 2014). Further, the NDRRMC report estimated the total damage from the
typhoon to be close to 90 billion pesos. The devastating 4 to 5- meter Yolanda storm surges, one of the
biggest storm surge events in several decades, caused much of the damage and fatalities. In the wake of
Typhoon Yolanda’s catastrophic destruction, the weaknesses and significant gaps in the country’s
disaster response and management system were exposed once more.

At present, there are heightened efforts to improve risk reduction strategies in the country. With
climate change and the risk of disasters becoming seemingly unavoidable and on the rise, the various
agencies and institutions, NGOs, and the private sector in the Philippines need to work together to
increase the country’s disaster preparedness and resiliency. At the forefront of the Philippine
government’s efforts in disaster risk reduction and management are the National Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Department of Science and Technology Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Agency (DOST-PAGASA), Philippine Red Cross (PRC),
Department of Health (DOH), Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), and the local
government units (LGUs), among others. The private sector, some non-government organizations
(NGOs), and institutions of higher learning in the country are also contributing significantly to these
efforts. The NDRRMC is the body empowered to perform policy-making, coordination, integration and
supervisory functions, as well as monitor the preparation, implementation and evaluation of the
National DRRM Plan to ensure the protection and welfare of the people in times of disaster (NDRRMC,
2015). Agencies such as DOH, Red Cross, and PAGASA produce information materials, usually leaflets, on
specific topics for distribution in schools and communities. These leaflets are highly readable, brief, and
concise and are good for quick access. However, due to their Towards Developing Science of Survival
(SOS) Pamphlets for Typhoon, Flashflood, Storm Surge and Tsunami and for Earthquakes and Their
Aftermath: A Pilot Study 62 conciseness, they seldom include the scientific explanations for the
phenomena and precautionary measures during a disaster. The SOS pamphlets aim to fill that gap by
providing more comprehensive information about disasters including the scientific explanation to the
do’s and don’t’s before, during and after a disaster. The information provided in the pamphlets are
meant to supplement any other information or advise given by government agencies involved in disaster
risk reduction and management such as NDRRMC, DOST-PAGASA, DOH and the Philippine Red Cross.
This project aims to answer this question: How should Science of Survival pamphlets be designed to be
informative, accurate, relevant, and useful in disseminating information about disaster risk reduction
and management among schools and communities?

Conceptual Framework

After the catastrophic devastation caused by Typhoon Yolanda, disaster risk-reduction and management
became a most pressing concern for the government and the private sector. Various agencies,
institutions and companies extended their assistance in promoting disaster awareness and
preparedness in the country. Information materials for disaster risk-reduction, response and mitigation
such as leaflets, flyers or brochures were distributed in schools and communities. These types of
materials offer small amounts of information on a specific topic and are cheaper ways of getting the
information out to a larger number of people. In its desire to go beyond the do’s and don’t’s, the
present study chose to develop pamphlets instead.

A pamphlet is described as a booklet consisting of a few pages that are folded in half and saddle stapled
at the crease to make a simple book. In order to count as a pamphlet, UNESCO requires a publication
(other than a periodical) to have at least 5 but not more than 48 pages exclusive of the cover pages
(AArtDesign, 2013). Beyond 48 pages, it already counts as a book. A pamphlet’s aim is to educate,
inform, persuade, or entertain the intended audience. It may also be used to mobilize people to support
one’s cause (AArt Design, 2013).

Pamphlets are more likely to be effective when:

(1) the aim is to improve knowledge;

(2) the aim is to change people’s attitudes,

(3) they are used in conjunction with other interventions; or

(4) they are aimed at specific high risk groups (Newell, 1996). Further, the following need to be
maximized: (1) receipt and readership of pamphlets; (2) comprehensibility; (3) readability; and (4)
emphasis on the main message. To ensure comprehensibility, the use of short words and sentences, the
active voice, the positive voice, and a low reading level are required. To ensure readability of the
pamphlets, spelling, grammar and readability estimate must be checked. Newell (1996) identified seven
techniques for emphasizing the main message in written materials, namely: (1) having a title which
explains the materials; (2) putting the key point first in the materials; (3) repeating the key points within
the materials; (4) using questionbased paragraph headings; (5) visually emphasizing the key points- i.e.
bolding, underlining, using color, etc.; (6) avoiding the use of symbols; and (7) using illustrations that are
appropriate to the target group and topic. In this study, efforts were made to increase
comprehensibility, readability, and emphasis on the main message. Nivera et al. 63

To ensure that the contents of the pamphlets are sufficient, accurate, responsive to the needs of the
target audience, and appropriate for their intended purpose, the development process began with
needs and context analysis. This required reviewing the news reports, articles, documentaries and
reports from the media, related books, journals and information materials, and websites of NDRMMC,
Philippine Red Cross, PAGASA, DOH, and other sources. The review of the literature and the researchers’
expertise in the different branches of science became the basis for the contents of the preliminary drafts
of the pamphlets. At the forefront of the government’s disaster management efforts are NDRRMC,
DOSTPAGASA and DOH in collaboration with a non-government organization like the Philippine Red
Cross. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) is tasked to prepare
for, and respond to, natural calamities, like typhoons and earthquakes.

The NDRRMC uses strategies to mitigate the impact of disasters and increase the resiliency of both the
national government and local government units in the face of disasters (NDRRMC, 2015). The Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Agency (PAGASA), one of the attached agencies of the
Department of Science and Technology (DOST) under its Scientific and Technical Services Institutes, is
mandated to “provide protection against natural calamities and utilize scientific knowledge as an
effective instrument to insure the safety, well being and economic security of all the people, and for the
promotion of national progress” (PAGASA, 2015). On the other hand, the Department of Health (DOH) is
the agency tasked to guarantee equitable, sustainable and quality health for all Filipinos, especially the
poor, and to lead the quest for excellence in health. Public health centers and government hospitals play
significant roles in planning and preparing for, and responding to, various emergencies, including
environmental emergencies, foodborne and sanitation issues, and water supply safety, especially in
times of disaster (Department of Health, 2015).

Lastly, the Philippine Red Cross is the premier humanitarian organization in the country, committed to
provide quality life-saving services that protect the life and dignity especially of indigent Filipinos in
vulnerable situations (Philippine Red Cross, 2015). Aside from disaster management services, the
Philippine Red Cross provides five other major services: blood services, safety services, health services,
social services, and Red Cross youth and volunteer services. In view of the significant roles and
experiences of these agencies in disaster response and management, they are in the best position to
evaluate the SOS pamphlets. Thus, after a series of review and revision by the science experts in the
university, the SOS pamphlets were submitted to experts in NDRRMC, DOH, DOST-PAGASA and
Philippine Red Cross and to students who have survived major disasters for evaluation. Their comments
and suggestions, both oral and written, guided the revision of the pamphlets. The revised versions of the
SOS pamphlets were returned to these three groups of experts for further review and evaluation.
Additional comments and suggestions from the experts were considered in producing the final version
of the SOS pamphlets. Figure 1 shows the framework of the study.

Towards Developing Science of

Needs and context analysis Scientific knowledge needed to address the needs and risks before, during,
and after natural disasters Cycles of review and revision Validation of the pamphlets by experts of
NDRRMC, DOH, PRC, DOST-PAGASA, PNU, and some Yolanda victims Validated Science of Survival
Pamphlets for

• Typhoons, Flashflood, Storm Surge and Tsunami

• Earthquake and Its Aftermath: Landslide, Fire and Liquefaction.

Methodology

Study Design

This study falls under developmental research, which is defined as “the systematic study of designing,
developing and evaluating instructional programs, processes and products that must meet the criteria of
internal consistency and effectiveness” (Seels & Richey, 1994, p. 127, in Richey & Klein, 2005). Based on
the two categories of developmental research of Richey, Klein and Nelson (2004), this study is
developmental research Type 1 because it aims to design, develop and evaluate an instructional
product, specifically, the Science of Survival pamphlets.

Procedure

The study consisted of three phases: needs and context analysis phase, design, development and
formative evaluation phase, and finally, semi-summative evaluation phase (see Figure 2) following the
process of a developmental research. The goal of the needs and context analysis phase was to survey
the literature on disaster response, risk reduction and management and to identify the needs and risks
during disasters and how science can help before, during and after disasters to improve the victims’
chances of survival. The goal of the design, development and formative evaluation phase was to design
the pamphlets and improve it through a series of evaluations by various experts along with
corresponding revisions. The goal of the semi-summative evaluation phase was to determine the
pamphlets’ readiness for field testing in schools and communities based on the expert evaluation of
government agencies involved in disaster risk reduction and management, science experts in the
university, and students who are survivors of major disasters.

A. Needs and context analysis Scientific knowledge needed to address the needs and risks before,
during, and after natural disasters Cycles of review and revision Validation of the pamphlets by experts
of NDRRMC, DOH, PRC, DOST-PAGASA, PNU, and some Yolanda victims Validated Science of Survival
Pamphlets for • Typhoons, Flashflood, Storm Surge and Tsunami • Earthquake and Its Aftermath:
Landslide, Fire and Liquefaction Nivera et al. 65 Figure 2 provides of visual representation of the
iterative process adopted in this study. The height of each cycle indicates the number of people involved
in each step in the process. Figure 2. Iterative process of the study

a. Needs and context analysis phase Nine PNU lecturers, all experts from various fields, namely, biology
(2), chemistry (3), physics (2), and mathematics (2) composed the team of researchers in this study.
During this phase, the team identified, selected, analyzed and summarized the scientific literature on
what to do before, during and after natural disasters such as typhoons, tsunamis, storm surges, flash
floods, earthquakes and their aftermath. More importantly, the scientific bases for the phenomenon
and the do’s and don’t’s were identified. The researchers also reviewed the websites and information
materials of government and non-government agencies involved in disaster preparation and
management. The rules for writing documents for the general public and methods to assess readability
and comprehension were also reviewed. At the end of this phase, the team identified the scope,
sequence and content of each pamphlet.

b. Design, development and formative evaluation phase this phase progressed in four cycles. In each
cycle, drafts of the pamphlets were formatively evaluated, with each set of feedback influencing the
next draft. In the first cycle, the team drafted the preliminary draft of the pamphlets based on the
literature review and their own expertise in the sciences. Discussions centered on the features and lay-
out of each pamphlet. Each pamphlet was presented to the research team for peer review and critiquing
in terms of scope, sequence, accuracy of content, relevance and lay-out. In the second cycle of this
phase, the enhanced drafts of the pamphlets were subjected to further peer review, critiquing and
language editing. In the third cycle, the drafts in quality prints were submitted for evaluation by experts
in government agencies involved in disaster risk reduction management, namely, NDRRMC, DOH, DOST-
PAGASA, and PRC. The experts evaluated the pamphlets in terms of relevance and accuracy of content,
format and language used. In addition, two medical doctors in PNU, two science specialists (one in
physics and the other in chemistry), and three students who are survivors of major disasters likewise
evaluated the pamphlets.

Evaluative feedback

In this cycle was gathered through a product evaluation questionnaire, interviews, and in some cases,
group discussions with experts in government agencies. All inputs, suggestions and Towards Developing
Science of Survival (SOS) Pamphlets for Typhoon, Flashflood, Storm Surge and Tsunami and for
Earthquakes and Their Aftermath: A Pilot Study 66 comments of the experts were considered in
preparing the fourth draft of the pamphlets, which were again critically reviewed by the team and
subjected to language editing.

c. Semi-summative phase

In this phase, the expert evaluators evaluated the pamphlets for a second time to help ensure that all
their suggestions, comments and inputs were incorporated in the revised versions and to determine if
the pamphlets were ready for use as instructional materials in schools and communities. Additional
comments or suggestions were considered. The outcome of this phase was the final version of the
pamphlet, which is ready for try-out in schools and communities. The try-out in schools and
communities will constitute another study.

Data Analysis

The product evaluation instrument was crafted based on Newell’s (1996) description of effective
pamphlets and the purposes for which these pamphlets were being developed. The draft of the
instruments was reviewed by experts in the university and were tried out in the first cycle of the
pamphlets’ evaluation by the internal and external experts and the students.

Data obtained from the product evaluation instrument were statistically treated using the arithmetic
mean. The weighted mean was used to get the general feedback of the pool of experts and students
who evaluated the pamphlets and these were interpreted using the following scale:
Most documents (Stockmeyer, 2009). The handwritten and oral recommendations given for the
improvement of the pamphlets were summarized and considered in the revision of each pamphlet.

Results and Discussion

This research project developed two Science of Survival pamphlets, titled, When Wind Rages and Water
Rises and When the Earth Moves. Figure 2 shows the cover photos of the two Pamphlets. Pamphlet 1
Pamphlet 2 Figure 3. Front covers of SOS pamphlets 1 and 2 When Wind Rages and Water Rises is a 23-
page pamphlet for typhoon, flashflood, storm surge and tsunami. When the Earth Moves, on the other
hand, is a 21-page pamphlet for earthquakes and their aftermath (liquefaction, fire, landslide, and
tsunami). Both pamphlets aim to increase awareness on the dangers posed by the different natural
calamities and to provide tips and suggestions on what to do before, during and after any of these
natural calamities. Experts from PAGASA provided several pages of detailed and very helpful.
Improved pamphlets in terms of content. In terms of lay-out and language, the experts from the
different agencies rated the pamphlets as “acceptable” only. The lowest marks obtained by both
pamphlets were on the appropriateness of the language used for teachers, trainers, and community
leaders. Admittedly, some terms and phrases were technical and not commonly used in everyday
language.

This suggests the need to further simplify the language used. One way to do that is by presenting the
contents in the local language of the teachers, trainers and community leaders and that will constitute
another study. The reviewers also noted the low readability of some figures and graphs. As these figures
and graphs were culled from the internet and websites of agencies, the team had difficulty enhancing
them to increase readability.

Further enhancement of the lay-out and language used will be prioritized in the translation of the
pamphlets to different local languages, before the try out in schools and communities, which could be
the next phases of this study. Finally, four students who are survivors of major disasters were asked to
evaluate the pamphlets. Both pamphlets received perfect marks in terms of relevance and accuracy of
content and the language used. Both the language and layout were likewise rated very highly by the
students. The students did not seem to be bothered by the technical terms and phrases used to describe
phenomena in the pamphlets. Table 3 shows the summary of the results.
Conclusions

Based on the quantitative and qualitative evaluation by experts from PAGASA, DOH, NDRRMC,
Philippine Red Cross, the University and students who are survivors of major disasters, this study
concludes that:

1. The Science of Survival Pamphlets, namely, When Wind Rages and Water Rises and When the Earth
Moves, contain relevant and accurate scientific information about natural disasters and useful and
doable tips and suggestions to increases one’s chances of survival during disasters.

2. The developmental research design which consisted of three phases: needs and context analysis
phase, design, development and formative evaluation phase, and finally, semi-summative evaluation
phase, were found to be appropriate and helpful in developing relevant, informative, and quality
Science of Survival pamphlets.

3. The series of formative evaluation by experts from different sectors, and the corresponding cycles of
revisions, greatly enhanced the accuracy and relevance of the content and the over-all lay-out,
readability and appearance of the pamphlets.

4. The semi-summative quantitative evaluation by experts showed that both pamphlets are highly
acceptable as supplementary resource materials on disaster response and management. This finding is
reinforced by the certification of the four agencies, namely, NDRRMC, DOH, PAGASA, and Philippine Red
Cross, that the pamphlets had been reviewed by their respective agencies and that they support its use
as supplementary materials on disaster response and management.
Recommendations

Based on the conclusions drawn, the study recommends the following:

1. Both SOS pamphlets may be promoted and used as supplementary resource materials on disaster
response and management trainings/seminars in schools and communities.

2. To further enhance the readability and usability of the pamphlets, these should be translated to the
local language of the community using fewer technical jargon and simpler words, if possible.

3. For greater impact, the pamphlets need to be mass-produced and used in actual disaster
management trainings in calamity-prone schools and communities, in cooperation with agencies like
NDRRMC and Philippine Red Cross. Towards Developing Science of Survival (SOS) Pamphlets for
Typhoon, Flashflood, Storm Surge and Tsunami and for Earthquakes and Their Aftermath: A Pilot Study
76

4. The pamphlets need to be regularly updated to maintain an nd even further enhance the relevance
and accuracy of the information contained.

References

AArtDesign (2013). Difference and specification between flyers, brochures, leaflets, pamphlets &
newsletters. Retreived May 31, 2014 from http://www.aart.us.com/marketing-materials.html.
Bloomberg (December 2014).

New storm threatens the Philippines, the world’s most disaster-prone country in the world. Retrieved
January 12, 2014 from http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-12-03/another-typhoon-for-
typhoonweary-philippines. Business Mirror (March 15, 2015).

Eight Philippine cities most disaster-prone. Retrieved June 3, 2015 from

http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Nation&title=eight-philippinecities-most-disaster-
prone&id=103880. Montejo, M. (2015). Environment, disaster preparedness, climate change and
energy.

A paper presented at the APEC 2015 High Level Policy Dialogue on Science and Technology in Higher
Education held at PICC, Manila on August 13-14, 2015. National Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management Council (2014). Update on effects of Typhoon Haiyan. Retrieved on June 5, 2015 from
http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/1329/Update_on_Effects_Typhoon_Y
OLANDA_(Haiyan)_17APR2014.pdf. National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (2015).
National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan (NDRRMP) 2011-2028. Retrieved August 21,
2015 from http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/41/NDRRM_Plan_2011- 2028.pdf.
 Student Leadership Role for Environmental Protection

Ramona Isabel S. Ramirez (PhD) Central Bicol State University of Agriculture, San Jose, Pili, Camarines
Sur, Philippines monet_phd@yahoo.com
Date Received: February 1, 2017; Date Revised: May 4, 2017

Abstract
The research focuses on the role of student organizations in the promotion of environmental education
and protection. It assessed the student organizations’ initiatives and activities that address the
environmental issues and problems. It determined whether student leadership can be an effective tool
in addressing environmental concerns and promote environmental education. Descriptiveevaluative
methods of research were used in the study. Documentary analysis was used to determine the
programs, projects and activities conducted by the different student organizations along environmental
education and protection. Interview and focused group discussions were employed to validate the
secondary data and identify problems and constraints encountered by the organization. Results of the
study showed that the University supports student leadership through the student organizations.
Student organizations are empowered and given rights and privileges’ as stipulated in the student
handbook. There were more than forty accredited student organizations in CBSUA. All of them initiated
programs/projects and activities that are environment related as required by the university. Student
leadership through student organizations is an effective tool in promoting environmental education and
protection. Student empowerment through student organizations can promote student involvement in
the most pressing concerns of environment protection.

Keywords: Student Leadership, Student Organizations, Environmental Education, Environmental

Protections

INTRODUCTION

Climate change is widely regarded as one of the most serious challenges the world faces with
consequences that post greater effects on the environment. Since the environment is not restricted to
boundaries of different countries, it might as well mean that no country or individual will escape the
effects of such climate catastrophe
[1]. As environmental concerns escalate around the globe, people are taking actions like never before. A
lot of attention is being focused on the environment
[2] and all sectors collaborate to be able to help and take part in the most pressing concerns. Young
people are one of the most promising sectors of the society. They can be promoters of change, young as
they are because of their natural dynamism and will power, they can bring fresh perspective, energy,
drive and a sense of what is possible
[3]. Youth in the academe, being educated and informed have greater opportunity to be involved and
take part in addressing environmental concerns. There’s much we can do to learn and support their
efforts. Young people constitute a large part of the world’s population
[4]. Demographic statistics reveal that children under 15 comprise nearly one-third of the world’s total
population with 60 percent of them living in Asia. Because of this, children and youth groups are
becoming major factor for involvement in environmental work. In Bangladesh for example, through the
National Federation of Youth Organization in Bangladesh (NFYOB), empowered the youth by providing
relevant trainings. Many youth groups work directly on environmental awareness and participation
among the young
[5]. Undoubtedly, the youth can significantly perform vital roles in the society. It is imperative that youth
from all parts of the world participate actively in all relevant levels of decision making processes because
it affects their lives today and has implications for their futures
[6]. In addition to their intellectual contribution and ability to mobilize support, they Ramirez, Student
Leadership Role for Environmental Protection www.apjmr.com Asia Pacific Journal of Multidisciplinary
Research, Vol. 5, No. 2, May 2017 bring unique perspectives that need to be taken into account. The
youth are agents of change. They are the hope of the present and next generations to come
[7].Aside from having greater stake in the more distant future, young people are especially well-paced
to promote environmental awareness simply because they often have better access to information
about the environment than their elders [4]. Aside from exposure in formal education, youth of today
have lived all their lives in an era in which environmental issues have loomed large. Youth participation
in all societal concerns has long been noted. Many success stories about young peoples’ participation in
environmental advocacy have been told. Website of the Philippine Center for Environmental Protection
and Sustainable Development, Inc; reflected youth participations in environmental advocacies through
the Green Youth Movement of the Philippines
[8]. GYM Philippines believed that the Filipino youth should be involved in green initiatives because a)
they comprises 30% of the country’s population, b) they are vulnerable to environmental degradation
and disasters, c) they will inherit the responsibility of taking care of the environment, d) has high
intellectual capacity for green initiatives, and e) has strong ability to mobilize. Youth mobility may be
enhanced when working as a group. Student organizations may present opportunities for collaboration.
It can help build network and can provide valuable skills
[9], and invaluable experiences
[10] that they can contribute in the implementation of environmental protection advocacy. Involving
student leaders contribute in shaping organizational goals
[11]. Involving students in educational reforms is a practical thing to do. They have unique knowledge
and perspectives that can make reform efforts more successful (11). Involving students in environmental
advocacy may lead to successful implementation of environmental protection and advocacies because
to involve students is to involve energy and enthusiasm
[12]. Students’ organizations may provide a successful tool in accelerating the development towards
aware and motivated students. Its members may play an active part in the transformation towards a
sustainable society
(13). Environmental education and protection advocacy must include students as visionaries and
creative thinkers because by doing so, new possibilities and options may be found (14). Students are
change agents
[15]. They are part of sustainable development efforts [12]; producers of school outcomes and their
involvement are fundamental to all improvement [11]. Their inputs, leadership and decision making
were in the forefront of environmental education activities
[16]. No doubt, the youth of today through student organizations can be an important tool in the
promotion of environmental education and protection. It is therefore worthy to look at the
environmental initiatives of student organizations in academic institutions. The research focuses on the
role of student organizations in the promotion of environmental education and protection. It
particularly assessed the Central Bicol State University of Agriculture (CBSUA) student organizations’
initiatives and activities that address environmental issues and problems, c/y 2015 to 2016. It
determined whether student leadership can be an effective tool in addressing environmental concerns
and promote environmental education. Objectives were to
1) Determine the University policies and legal basis on student organizations;
2) determine the profile of the accredited student organizations in CBSUA for the year 2015 to 2016; 3)
identify the student organizations that are actively involved in environmental advocacy and protection;
4) assess the impact of the student leaders participation to organizations’ initiatives and activities that
address environmental issues and problems to their attitude towards environmental protection;
5) Identify problems and constraints encountered by the organizations in implementing environment
related initiatives; and 6) assess whether student leadership can be an effective tool in addressing
environmental concerns and promote environmental education.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Descriptive-evaluative methods of research were used in the study. Documentary analysis and survey
were conducted to determine the organizational profile, programs, projects and activities conducted by
the different student organizations along environmental education and protection. Interview and
focused group discussions involving student leaders, organization officers, active members, and
organization advisers were employed to validate the secondary data obtained from the office of the
University Student Affairs and Services (OSAS).

Sampling Procedure
There were a total of thirty- four (4) key informants (KI) involved in the Key Informant Interview (KII)
identified through purposive sampling. Ten (10) organization advisers, 10 organization president, 10
active members, 1 OSAS Director, 1 student organization coordinator and 2 OSAS staff. Active members
were identified by the organization adviser and the OSAS staffs were those designated to cater to the
student organizations’ concerns. Name of the key informants were withheld for ethical reasons.

Data Gathering

Procedure Documentary analysis was conducted to determine the programs, projects and activities
conducted by the different student organizations along environmental education and protection. Key
Informant Interview (KII) and focused group discussions (FGD) involving student leaders, organization
officers, active members, and organization advisers were employed to validate the secondary data
obtained from the office of the University Student Affairs and Services.

The FGD was conducted to validate the information noted in the interview. Documents available at the
OSAS consist of student organization profile, accomplishment reports, student handbook, activity
proposal, activity permit and others were requested through the OSAS Director and student
organization coordinator. The documents were sources of secondary data that were evaluated. Informal
interview and focused group discussions (FGD) were conducted involving the key informants.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This section presents discussions which were focused on a) University policies and legal basis on student
organizations, b) profile of the accredited student organizations in CBSUA for the year 2015 to 2016, c)
student organizations that are actively involved in environmental advocacy and protection, d) impact on
student leaders’ attitudes towards environmental protection, e) problems and constraints encountered
by the organizations in implementing environment related initiatives, f) student leadership as an
effective tool in addressing environmental concerns and promotion of environmental education.

University Policies on Student Organizations

Student organization is one of the major component of student affairs and services of the Central Bicol
State University of Agriculture. Chapter VI of the student handbook describes student organizations as
groups of bona fide students united to promote the ideals and objectives of the University and serve as
instruments of development [17]. Its organizational programs serve the students’ needs to significantly
advance the University’s educational and social goals. It is facilitated by the Student Organization
Coordinator and directly under the regulation of the OSAS.

Student organizations in CBSUA are classified into academic, civic, fraternities and sororities, and
religious organizations. The University Supreme Student Council (USSC) is the umbrella organization of
all accredited student organizations. It is the highest governing body of the studentry serving as voice of
the students to the administration [17]. The council is empowered to perform functions that include
among others, the coordination and provision of assistance to Ramirez, Student Leadership Role for
Environmental Protection www.apjmr.com Asia Pacific Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, Vol. 5, No.
2, May 2017 accredited organizations in the implementation of their activities. This implies that projects
and activities of student organizations in the university are subject to the regulation and or approval of
the USSC and overall supervision of the OSAS. All bonafide students of the university are given equal
rights to join any organization and or organize themselves into an organization. Any group of twentyfive
(25) students may apply as an organization to the OSAS at the start of the semester; they just have to
comply with the requirements stipulated in the University policies. Existing and accredited organizations
are required to submit annual accomplishment report, financial report together with accomplished
documents that include among others the a) annual workplan of activities for the school year, approved
by the adviser; b) list of current officers and members with their names and addresses duly certified by
the University Registrar; c) list of newly elected officers and advisers with pictures; d) class schedule of
the current officers of the organization; ratified Constitution and By-Laws; e) Vision, Mission and
Philosophy of the organization, and f) date, time and place of organization’s meeting. The university
requires activities for accreditation and re-accreditation that includes a) one activity highlighting the
organization’s purpose of existence; b) one activity of service learning in nature; c) one activity on
popular issues and participation in all activities directly sponsored by the OSAS or its coordinating units.
Organization adviser is required to device a monitoring and evaluation scheme. Corresponding policies
on benefits and incentives, returning organizations, revocation of status, recognition and others are all
stipulated on chapter VI of the Student Handbook.

Organizational Profile for 2015 to 2016 Documents from the Office of Student Affairs and Services
reflected University’s full support to student organizations. Aside from the provisions stipulated in the
student handbook that allows bona fide students to organize themselves for a common cause, the
university allocated funds for student services, particularly on the capacity building of student leaders
and support to student organization activities. The USSC is empowered in the management of the
student development fund although; a protocol is prescribed for the purpose. Data in table 1 revealed
active involvement of students in organization. For 2015 to 2016 alone, there are more than forty
accredited student organizations in CBSUA, of various classifications.
Due to overlapping academic involvement of the officers responsible for the preparation of documents
necessary for reaccreditation.

Student Organizations Involved in Environmental Advocacy and Protection

There were more than forty (40) accredited student organizations in CBSUA for the years 2015 to 2016.
All of these accredited organizations conducted at least one environment related activity as mandated
by the University. Graph 1 presents the commonly conducted organizational activities for 2015 with the
relative percentages. Graph 1: Student Organization Activities for 2015
Cities include training and seminars on environmental management and protection. Clean-up drive as
noted from the organizational leaders was their way to help in maintaining ecological balance
particularly in the preservation of natural habitat of flora and fauna, a clear manifestation of student
concern for environmental protection. Looking further into the documents provided by OSAS, it is
reflected that most of the organizations were conducting at least one (1) environment related activity.
This is so because it is a requirement for reaccreditation of the student organization. Analysis of the data
revealed a number of organizations sponsoring activities that were mostly environment related.
Collaboration among organizations is also evident.

Table 2 (see appendix) gives the organizations that are actively involved in the promotion of
environmental advocacy and protection with the specific environment related activities conducted. As
indicated in Table 2(see appendix), organizations actively promoting environmental advocacy includes
the League of Ecologists (LOE) with at least ten (10) activities conducted in 2015 alone; League of
Elementary Teachers (LET) with 5 environment related activities conducted; Rotaract Club of Isarog,
Physical and Biological Sciences Union (PBSSU) and Sarong Banggi Organization all with four (4)
environment related activities conducted. Spirited Otakus’ Ultimate League conducted three (3)
environment related activities for 2015. Data in table 2 further reflected that the top five student
organizations actively promoting environmental advocacy and protection conducted activities such as
clean-up drives in the university, estero, and coastal areas; tree planting and distribution of planting
materials; waste analysis and characterization study (WACS); environmental advocacy seminars, waste
management trainingseminar; pulotkalat; grin for green; community waste management training;
container gardening; climate summit; and green CBSUA campaign photoshoot. Findings manifested
awareness and concern of students towards environmental protection. The motive for environmental
protection is evident in the conduct of environment related activities of the different organizations.
Indeed, student leadership through the student organizations can be an effective tool for environmental
advocacy and protection; their input, leadership and decision making were at the forefront of
environmental education activities [16]. The youth dynamism and creativity added with better access to
information [4], can bring about fresh perspective [3] that may lead to the promotion of environmental
advocacy. CBSUA student leaders can be the University’s partners in the promotion of environmental
education and protection.

Impact of Participation to Environment Related Activities to the Attitude of Students towards

Environmental Protection Interview and focused group discussions conducted to student leaders,
organization officers and advisers revealed positive impact of the conduct of environment related
initiatives. Many of the respondent’s expresses enjoyment in participating at community based activities
such as tree planting and clean-up drives. It made them realize the importance of caring for the
environment. One of the organization presidents shared that his constant participation to environment
related activities started his advocacy for environmental protection. He is now actively encouraging and
leading his friends to participate in environment related initiatives of their organization. Another very
remarkable response noted during the FGD was the transfer of knowledge and advocacy from the
student organizations to the community. Majority of the FGD participants shared initiative of influencing
their own family. Involvement were through waste segregation,, water, energy conservation, recycling
and backyard clean-up. There were also some who participates in community tree planting and “rabus”.
Rabus is a community activity, bayanihan in nature, where community residents helped in doing certain
tasks in the barangay as community clean-up and other similar activities. Findings imply development of
positive attitude towards environmental protection. This manifestation is consistent with learning
principles stating that experience promote learning and learning results to change in behaviour [19]-
[20]. The experience of Ramirez, Student Leadership Role for Environmental Protection.

Participating in environment related activities sponsored by the student organization foster awareness
of the environmental issues among students thereby resulting to a change in their behavior. Student
organizations can therefore be an effective partner in promoting environmental advocacy and
protection. Young people are one of the most promising sectors of the society. They can be promoters
of change, young as they are because of their natural dynamism and will power, they can bring fresh
perspective, energy, drive and a sense of what is possible [3]. Youth in the academe, being educated and
informed have greater opportunity to be involved and take part in addressing environmental concerns.

Problems Encountered by Organization Leaders in the Conduct of Environment Related

Initiatives Problems encountered by organization leaders in the conduct of environment related

advocacies were mostly financial in nature. Other problems raised in the FGD were time constraints and
protocol in requesting permit for the conduct of activity. Financial problem was due to the limited
organization fund. Requesting subsidy from the University Supreme Student Council (USSC) is difficult
due to the limited fund allocation of USSC and many organizations and students sharing the resources.
Time constraints were brought about by the overloading academic tasks of students involved. The
tedious protocol and the many required documents relative to the conduct of an activity hindered
realization of organizational plans. Student Leadership as Tool in Addressing Environmental Concerns
and Promotion of Environmental Education and Protection Results of the study strongly indicated
potentials of student leaders in bringing about change. Through the student organization, young minds
and youth dynamism bring about fresh perspectives that made things possible. With minimal adult
supervision, the creativity of their minds and strong conviction to make a difference enabled them to
take part in the most pressing concerns of the environment. The Philippine Center for Environmental
Protection and Sustainable Development, Inc. (PCEPSDI) believed that the youth of today can be tool for
environmental protection. Through their Green Youth Movement |(GYM), it cited that the Filipino youth
should be involved in green initiatives because a) they comprises 30% of the country’s population, b)
they are vulnerable to environmental degradation and disasters, c) they will inherit the responsibility of
taking care of the environment, d) has high intellectual capacity for green initiatives, and e) has strong
ability to mobilize. This study had proven that CBSUA student leaders shared the same potentials. The
documents from the Student Affairs and Services present an overwhelming proof for the University
Student Organizations’ initiatives towards environmental advocacy and protection. They became the
implementing arm of OSAS in the promotion of environmental related initiatives which they themselves
have conceptualized. No doubt, the youth of today through student organizations can be an important
tool in the promotion of environmental education and protection.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Central Bicol State University of Agriculture supports student leadership through the student
organizations. Student organizations in the university are empowered and given rights and privileges’ as
stipulated in chapter VII of the student handbook. There were more than forty accredited student
organizations in CBSUA. All of the accredited student organizations initiated programs/projects and
activities that are environment related as required by the university. A significant number of student
organizations were noted to be actively involved, conducting at least three activities per year consisting
of coastal clean-up, estero clean-up, tree planting, trainings and seminars on environmental awareness,
clean and green program, pulotkalatsa Universidad, waste analysis and characterization study (WACS),
recycling, Green CBSUA Campaign Photoshoot and others. Student leaders, through the different
student organizations are University’s partners in the conduct of environment related initiatives. With
adult supervision, student leaders’ creativity and dynamism can effectively mobilize the studentry to
sponsor and/or participate in environment related activities. This implies that they can be effective tools
in promoting environmental education and protection. Student leadership through student
organizations may be an effective tool in promoting environmental education and protection.

REFERENCES

[1] Ramirez, R. I. S (2015). “Development and Validation of IEC Materials Integrated with CCA and DRR
Concepts” CHED-DAP funded research of CBSUA

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fromwww.iyfnet.org/sites/default/files/fieldnotes/eniro nment.pdf

[3] Jokinen, J. (2016). Field Notes: Youth and the Enironment. Retrieved September 8, 2016
fromwww.iyfnet.org/sites/default/files/fieldnotes/eniro nment.pdf

[4] World Youth Report (2003). Strengthening Participation of Youth in Environmental Protection.

[5] Retrieved September 10, 2016 from www.UN.Org/esa/socdev/unyindocuments/cho5.pdf

[6] Role of Major Groups (2008). Retrieved September 8, 2016 from

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[7] Youth Sourcebook on Sustainable Development (1995). Winnipeg. International Institute for
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[8] Green Youth Movement of the Philippines. Retrieved from www.pcepsdi.org.ph/gym-

philippines.html

[9] Foubert, J. D. (2006). Effects of Involvement in Clubs and Organizations on the Psychological
Development of First-Year and Senior College Students. NASPA Journal, 2006, Vol. 43, No.1

10] Hernandez, K. et al. (1999). Analysis of the Literature on the impact of student involvement on
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[11] Wallner, E. (2005). Accelerating universities focus on sustainable development through student
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[12] Levin, B. (2000). Putting students at the center of education reform. Journal of Educational ChangeI,
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[13] Weidner, A. (2014). Study for the establishment of VU Green Office-involvement of students in the
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[14] Dimick, A.S. (2012). Student empowerment in an environmental science classroom: Toward a
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[16] Bolstad, R. et al. (in press). Environmental education in New Zealand schools: research into Current
practice and future possabilities. Vol 1: summary research findings. Wellington, Ministry of education.
[17] Student Handbook (2015). Central Bicol State University of Agriculture, Pili, Camarines Sur,
Philippines [18] OSAS Accomplishment Report (2015). CBSUA-Office of Student Affairs and Services, Pili,
Camarines Sur, Philippines.

[19] Gines, A. et al (1996). Educational Psychology: A Textbook for College Students in Psychology
Teaching.(Quezon City: Rex Bookstore, Inc., 1996).

[20] Gregorio, H.C (1983). “Laws of Learning,” Principles and Methods of Teaching. Garotech Publishing
House, Inc., Quezon City, Revised Edition. COPYRIGHTS Copyright of this article is retained by the
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Street floods in Metro Manila and possible solutions Article in Journal of Environmental Sciences ·

March 2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.jes.2017.03.004

ABSTRACT

Article history: Received 14 December 2016 Revised 1 February 2017 Accepted 6 March 2017 Available
online 10 March 2017 Urban floods from thunderstorms cause severe problems in Metro Manila due to
road traffic. Using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived topography, flood simulations and
anecdotal reports, the root of surface flood problems in Metro Manila is identified. Majority of flood-
prone areas are along the intersection of creeks and streets located in topographic lows. When creeks
overflow or when rapidly accumulated street flood does not drain fast enough to the nearest stream
channel, the intersecting road also gets flooded. Possible solutions include the elevation of roads or
construction of well-designed drainage structures leading to the creeks. Proposed solutions to the flood
problem of Metro Manila may avoid paralyzing traffic problems due to short-lived rain events, which
according to Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) cost the Philippine economy 2.4 billion
pesos/day. © 2017 The Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Published by Elsevier B.V.

Introduction

Metro Manila is located on an isthmus between the Manila Bay and Laguna de Bay. The entire region is
composed of one major catchment called the Marikina River Basin, which covers 535 km2 , and eight
smaller, river sub-basins, which cover 683 km2 that drain directly into Manila Bay and Laguna de Bay.
The Marikina, Pasig, San Juan and Tullahan rivers serve as the main outlets for a network of tributaries
of the Marikina River Basin and smaller catchments of Metro Manila (Fig. 1). Highly urbanized and
populated by almost 12 million residents (Cox, 2011), the metropolis lies on one of the widest
floodplains in the Philippines. Apart from devastating floods like those spawned by Tropical Storm
Ondoy in 2009 (Lagmay et al., 2010) and the typhoonenhanced southwest monsoon rains in 2012, 2013
(Lagmay et al., 2014) and 2014, more frequent floods caused by short-lived thunderstorms are also a
problem. Once parts of the road network are blocked by floods, traffic develops and paralyzes the entire
city. According to JICA, traffic jams due to thunderstormrelated flashfloods costs PhP 2.4 billion a day
from wasted gasoline and lost economic productivity (Rodis, 2014). Flashfloods are traditionally blamed
on the loss of infiltration due to urban concrete, a century-old drainage system, and clogged streams.
This study analyses nuisance floods caused by brief, heavy downpours. It identifies other factors to find
relatively inexpensive solutions to flood-generated traffic problems.

Methods

The Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) released a list of flood-prone areas in the National
Capital Region (Table 1), verified by accounts collected from photographs posted in social media. Crowd-
sourced data (Fig. 2a) were overlaid on a 100-year rain return flood-hazard map (Fig. 2b, NOAH, 2013).
LiDAR-derived topography was used to create profiles of the main roads in these areas, as well as
profiles of the road sides. A Roces Street and CP Garcia Avenue in the University of the Philippines (UP)
were also examined. Field work was also conducted to check the drainage crossing the streets in those
areas. Floods were simulated in FLO-2D GDS PRO using the St. Venant equations for continuity and
momentum (Eqs. (1) and (2)) and the finite-difference scheme to compute flood velocities: ∂ð Þ Vh ∂ð Þ
x þ ∂ð Þ h ∂ð Þt ¼ i ð1Þ S ¼ S− ∂ð Þ h ∂ð Þ x − V g ∂ð Þ V ∂ð Þ x − 1 g ∂ð Þ V ∂ð Þt ¼ 0 ð2Þ where V is the
average velocity in m/sec, h is the flow depth in meters, and i is the excess rainfall intensity in mm/24
hr. Other variables are slope (S), acceleration due to gravity (g),
Pressure Fig. 1 – Metro Manila natural drainage. (A) Location of Metro Manila, (B) administrative
boundaries of component cities and (C) watersheds and tributaries.

Table 1 – Metro Manila Development Authority list of flood-prone places in Metro Manila. Street name
City

1. Espana–Antipolo–Maceda Manila 2
 2. . P. Burgos (City Hall) Manila
3. 3. R. Papa, Rizal Avenue Manila
4. 4. Buendia Extension–Macapagal Avenue Manila
5. 5. Buendia–South Superhighway (northbound) Manila
6. 6. Buendia–South Superhighway (southbound) Manila
7. 7. Osmeña–Skyway (northbound) Makati 8. Makati Makati
8. 9. Don Bosco Makati
9. 10. EDSA Pasong Tamo, Magallanes Makati
10. 11. West Service Road, Merville Paranaque
11. 12. East Service Road–Sales street Muntinlupa
12. 13. McKinley Road Taguig
13. 14. C-5 Bayani Road Taguig
14. 15. C-5–BCDA Taguig
15. 16. C-5 Bagong Ilog Pasig
16. 17. EDSA–SM Megamall Mandaluyong
17.
18. 18. EDSA–Camp Aguinaldo Gate 3 Quezon
19. 19. Quezon Ave.–Victory Ave./Biak na Bato Quezon
20. 20. NLEX–Balintawak Cloverleaf Quezon
21. 21. North Avenue fronting Trinoma Mall Quezon
22. 22. EDSA–North Avenue Quezon 23. Philcoa area Quezon 40 JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL
SCIENCES 59 (2017) 39 – 4 7 gradient ∂ðhÞ ∂ðxÞ , and the local ð ∂ðVÞ ∂ðtÞ Þ and convective ðV
∂ðVÞ ∂ðtÞÞ accelerations. These are solved using the finite-difference scheme to get the
velocity across the boundaries in eight potential flow directions of every grid element. The
simulations used 1 × 1 m LiDAR-derived elevation data.
23. The floodplains were delineated into catchment areas based on the flow direction and
accumulation. Manning's coefficient of 0.03 was assigned to streams, which is the normal value
for main channels (Chow, 1959), and 0.15 to the floodplains which are predominantly concrete.
Inflow and outflow nodes were assigned based on where the water flows in from the upper
watershed and out through the main stream channel. Rainfall is simulated as a non-point source
carrying water throughout the model. Once flood-prone areas were identified from the 100-year
flood-hazard map, higher-resolution simulations in sub-basins of concern were conducted for
shortlived thunderstorms. An hour of rainfall with intensities of 30– 70 mm/hr was used to
simulate thunderstorms. Observations, road profiles and flood simulations revealed the causes
of street flooding and indicated appropriate solutions.

Results

2.1. Intersection of creeks and streets

The flood-prone areas list and flood-hazard maps show floods at intersections of streets and creeks, and
at ponded areas such as Padre Burgos in Manila
 (Fig. 2). Road profiles reveal that they follow topographic lows and are not significantly elevated from
roadsides and creek banks (Appendix A). R. Papa is lower than the roadside and lies below the tops of
three stream segments. EDSA-North Avenue floods at its lowest portion, which follows the topography
of a 250-m wide, 1-m high channel.

Five sites have bridges (Appendix A): Philcoa, R. Papa, C-5 Bagong Ilog, Osmeña–Skyway, and Don
Bosco. The street at Philcoa stands 3.8 m above the creek bottom with a rectangular, 2.37 × 4.4-m
culvert perpendicular to the road and two circular, 1 m-diameter culverts parallel to the road. R. Papa is
1.38 m above the creek bottom. In C-5 Bagong Ilog, the street is 3.92 m above the stream bottom. Along
Osmeña–Skyway is a 22.3-m bridge 3.34 m below street level.

A stream with its bed 4.5 m below South Luzon Expressway in the Don Bosco area is drained by a parallel
4 × 2.5-m drainage structure. Eight places do not seem to have drainage networks, which could be
masked by overlying concrete. 2.2. Roads in UP Diliman Both UP creeks are headwaters of a drainage
network. A Roces is 4 m and CP Garcia is 1.25 m above the banks

(Fig. 3). In CP Garcia, there appears to be a bigger channel, where the road is lower in elevation than the
bank of the creek. While it is built up above the lowest portion of the channel, it is still below the main
channel banks and remains susceptible to flooding (Fig. 3). The streets each have two 1 m-diameter
culverts. A Roces is sufficiently elevated to avoid flooding even when the creek swells, as during
Typhoon Ketsana in 2009. In contrast, CP Garcia is flooded and impassable even during short-lived
torrential thunderstorms. Here, flood depths reached 1 m during Ketsana, and are around 0.9 m during
brief thunderstorms. 2.3. Thunderstorm flash-flood scenarios Floods during short-duration
thunderstorms block traffic, as exemplified by four sites in the MMDA list: Bayani Road, Taguig City,
Victory Avenue, Quezon Boulevard, R. Papa Street, Manila, and EDSA–North Avenue

(Fig. 4). Fig. 2 – Flood-prone areas (a) plotted by netizens, and (b) overlain on a flood map.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 59 (2017) 39 – 4 7 41 Bayani Road starts to flood knee-deep
after 40 mm of rain, and floods are waist-high when rain delivers 70 mm. Victory Avenue starts to flood
gutter-deep at 40 mm, knee-deep after 60 mm, and tire-deep after 70 mm. R. Papa begins to flood
gutter-deep across three sections with 50 mm of rain and reaches half-tire-deep with a 70 mm rain.
EDSA–North Avenue begins to flood at 40 mm and reaches tire-level with intensities of 60 mm.
Snapshots of simulations for the other 18 MMDA flood-prone areas are provided as supplementary files
in the Appendix.

Discussion

Metro Manila floods are classified into those that endanger people, and those that merely cause traffic
jams. Not all of Metro Manila is flood-prone. Floods generate traffic jams only in specific areas and may
be eliminated with relatively low-cost solutions. Many flood-prone areas are where streets and creeks
intersect; others are areas where water accumulates. The roads in UP campus present two contrasting
scenarios:

A Roces hardly ever floods whereas CP Garcia gets inundated during severe weather as well as short-
lived thunderstorms (Fig. 3). These show that the construction of roads relative to the elevation of
intersecting creeks affects whether or not the roads get flooded. Roads that follow topographic lows,
even if they are above the creek's bank, should have enough clearance or freeboard to accommodate
creek swelling (Fig. 5).

Small streams may oftentimes be dry or nearly dry, but they, too, can swell and overtop their banks (Fig.
4). Roads above creeks, therefore, must be designed and constructed in the same manner as roads that
cross large rivers. In the Philippines, flood-control design is governed by technical standards based on
flood-frequency expressed by return periods which are based on the size of the catchment area,
importance of the project area, and economic viability (JICA, Japan International Cooperation Agency
and DPWH, Department of Public Works and Highways, 2003). Ideally, discharge values are calculated
through runoff analysis. When available, annual maximum-flood data are analyzed as a more convenient
alternative. In the absence of these two data sets, the return period is determined using rainfall data. A
Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (RIDF) curve is utilized in calculating discharge for catchment areas
below 20 m2 using the Rational Formula Method (Kuichling, 1889; Viessman and Lewis, 1995; Eq. (3)): Q
¼ c i A ð3Þ where Q is the discharge in cm, c is the runoff coefficient, i is rainfall intensity in mm/hr and
A the drainage area in m2 .

Fig. 3 – Profiles of (a) A Roces Street and (b) CP Garcia Avenue. Transect a–a′ is brown in the profile;
transect b–b′ is green. (c) A Roces and CP Garcia creek during (d) summer and (e) a short-lived
thunderstorm. 42 JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 59 (2017) 39 – 4 7 Fig. 4 – Inundation
scenarios for short-lived thunderstorms. Flood depths are classified based on the MMDA flood gauge.
(Ankle ≤ 0.1 m, gutter ≤ 0.201 m, half-knee ≤ 0.255 m, half-tire ≤ 0.331 m, knee ≤ 0.484 m, tires ≤ 0.661
m, waist ≤ 0.941 m, chest ≤ 1.144 m).

Fig. 5 – Cartoon of inundation of a road with a design that follows the topography as it crosses the creek
and where the road is elevated relative to the creek banks. Blue circles are culverts. JOURNAL OF
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 59 (2017) 39 – 4 7 43 Culverts and lateral drains, understandably, are not
designed for unusually big floods. Short-lived thunderstorms (i.e. >/30 mm/hr), however, flood the
streets as well. The theoretical discharge of the creek intersecting the road in Philcoa was computed
using the Rational Method (Eq. (3)). Philcoa is one of the places in the MMDA list of flood-prone areas.
The calculations for 1 hr of rain with intensity of 70 mm/hr yielded a value of 29.95 cm.
 This is still below the 87 m3 /sec discharge capacity of the culvert obtained with Manning's equation
(Gauckler, 1867; Manning, 1891; Chanson, 2004) (Eq. (4)): Q ¼ A 1 n R 2 3 S 1 2 ð4Þ where A is its inner
cross-sectional area in m2 , n is the Manning's coefficient, R is the hydraulic radius in m, and S is the
stream bed slope obtained through LiDAR topography. Concrete box culverts have a Manning's n of
0.012–0.015. The latter was used for a more conservative computation. Despite the capacity of the
culvert, field interviews revealed that street floods happen even during brief thunderstorms. The culvert
filled only during Typhoon Ketsana, showing that other factors play important roles in generating
thunderstormrelated floods. One and a half hour simulations using 70 mm/hr rainfall were conducted to
determine those factors.

The rain was distributed over the first 60 min of the simulation. Flooding begins at 33 min and peaks at
39 min, then slowly decreases and drains fully at 90 min. Peak discharge at the culvert inlet happens at
57 min when the flood along the road has already started to wane, much later than the street flood (Fig.
6). The hydrograph (Fig. 7) reaches its low after peak flow at 1 hr and 20 min then rises again. Water
draining into the culvert causes the initial rise; the succeeding rise is caused by flow from farther
reaches of the watershed. The absence of information regarding subsurface drainage in Philcoa was
addressed through field work. In the simulation, a 1 m × 1 m drain connects directly with the creek,
mimicking the unexposed lateral drainage. In the model, even if the culvert can handle the discharge of
surface flow from heavy downpour, knee-high flooding still occurs for 24–30 min, then subsides until it
ends after another 30 min. Flow into the topographic low is faster than into the creek.

Inasmuch as the creek never fills during short-lived thunderstorms even when the culvert is partially
clogged with garbage, the problem is really not the culvert, but the impervious low-lying road. A Roces
Ave. in UP Diliman, provides a possible solution: a hydraulic structure under the street large enough to
accommodate the volume of water, which is equivalent to the area covered by the flood multiplied by
the height of inundation, which for Philcoa is only knee-high.

The street surface must have steel mesh drains to accommodate the runoff that accumulates almost
instantaneously in the topographic low. Ideally, the subsurface water retention area should drive flow
into the creek. Constructing it below the street, if structurally feasible, avoids right-of-way problems.
The proposed solution is simulated. Since the Flo-2D model cannot simulate flow below the street, an
alternative model was generated. A DEM (Digital Elevation Model) with open strips paralleling the street
and sloping towards the creek was used to simulate subsurface flow.

The simulation result shows that all the flood water was confined in the strips, which means that the Fig.
6 – Simulation of flood at Philcoa showing the start of flooding along the road at 33 min, peak flooding
along the road at 39 min, peak discharge at the culvert's inlet at 57 min, and full flood subsidence along
the road at 90 min. 44 JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 59 (2017) 39 – 4 7 road will not flood
(Fig. 8). This model can be used to determine the appropriate surface infiltration of the street, and the
depth and slope of the subsurface drain needed. Although only one example of discharge analysis was
presented, the findings could be applied to other places in Metro Manila. They can be used for other
creek and street

Fig. 7 – Hyetograph and runoff hydrograph for the simulation. Peak rainfall occurred at 30 min. Peak
discharge occurred at 57 min. and reached a low point 1 hr before beginning to rise again. Fig. 8 –
Simulation result for the proposed solution for urban floods caused by short-lived but intense
thunderstorms. The image shows all the flood water confined in the excavated strips with no flood on
the road. Excavated strips as well as the creek culvert are underground, which means that the road
surface is also not flooded. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 59 (2017) 39 – 4 7 45 intersections
with culverts (e.g. Don Bosco) since they have similar geometry. For ponded areas like in Padre Burgos in
Manila and at EDSA Pasong Tamo, retention basins can also be made under the street and pumped out
after the thunderstorm. However, at EDSA Pasong Tamo, this type of intervention may be difficult as
there is an overpass in the area. High volume pumps are necessary to transfer floodwaters from this
area into an adjacent.

Conclusions

Metro Manila's floods are compounded by many factors including encroachment of concrete surfaces,
densification of buildings and residential areas, silting of riverbeds and canals, obstruction of waterways
by informal settlers, clogging of floodways by garbage, narrowing of rivers due to development on
floodplains, draining and filling in of small rivers forcing more water into fewer channels, forest
degradation, and reclamation of coastal land. Furthermore, humans have altered the landscape in the
metropolis which has grown rapidly but with poorly planned urbanization. Since the 1970's, people have
migrated from rural areas to Metro Manila increasing the population from 4.9 million residents in 1975
to more than 11 million today.

A survey by the National Housing Authority showed that by the early 1980s, a quarter of Metro Manila
residents were informal settlers living in crowded shantytowns many along waterways. Further
complicating the problem is ground subsidence. From 1978 to 2000, parts of Metro Manila sank by an
amount ranging from 16 cm to 1.46 m. The probable causes of subsidence are excessive groundwater
extraction, soil compaction and tectonic movement, though more research is needed to fully determine
the primary causes (Lagmay et al., 2010). Floods in the metropolis can be life threatening or a nuisance
because of the traffic they generate. Traffic problems related to urban surface floods from short-lived
rain events can cost the Philippine economy P2.4 billion pesos a day. This study identified the root
causes of street floods from both severe weather events and brief but heavy downpour from
thunderstorms using 2D flood simulations. Street floods in Metro Manila do not happen everywhere but
are mainly found at intersections of streets and creeks. Further analysis reveal that street floods occur at
the lowest portion of the street or topographic lows.

During severe weather events such as the Ondoy, Habagat 2012, Habagat 2013 and Habagat 2014
floods, creeks in the 23 areas listed by MMDA as flood-prone, swelled and overtopped its banks. This led
to inundation of streets, which closely followed the landscape down to the banks of the creeks. On the
other hand, short-lived heavy downpour (30 mm/hr) accumulate water in the low-lying areas faster than
it can drain through the culvert along the creek. Streets in the MMDA list still get inundated even though
the drainage design of the culvert below the street has greater discharge capacity than the theoretical
discharge expected to flow through the stream channel. In places where there are no creeks, floods are
due to ponding of water in the low-lying areas.

Proposed solutions to street floods in many of the places in the flood-prone list by MMDA include the
elevation of roads and construction of a retention basin under the street big enough to accommodate
the volume of water. The size of the retention basin is equivalent to the simulated area covered by the
flood along the street multiplied by the height of inundation. The street above the proposed retention
basin must have enough infiltration capacity to accommodate the rapidly accumulated rainfall. The
retention basin must also be designed to directly drain into the nearest stream channel. The latter
solution or its equivalent may not completely address big floods spawned by severe weather events but
may solve frequent street floods from short-lived thunderstorms. These proposed solutions may avert
increased gas consumption and lost potential income from traffic jams during floods, which costs the
Philippine economy 2.4 billion pesos a day, a figure that may balloon to 6 zbillion a day by the year 2030.
Acknowledgments

This is to acknowledge the Philippine Council for Industry, Energy, and Emerging Technology Research
and Development (PCIEERD). Department of Science and Technology (DOST) for funding the Nationwide
Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) program, particularly the DREAM Flood Modelling
Component Project. Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary data to this article can be found
online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2017.03.004.

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Chanson, H., 2004. The Hydraulics of Open Channel Flow. second ed. Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford-
UK, p. 630. Chow, V., 1959. Channel Hydraulics Open. McGraw-Hill. Cox, W., 2011. The evolving urban
form: Manila, new geography.

Available: http://www.newgeography.com/content/002198- the-evolvingurban-form-manila (Accessed

September 9, 2013). Gauckler, P., 1867. Etudes Th'eoriques et Pratiques Sur l'Ecoulement et le
Mouvement des Eaux. C. R. Acad. Sci. 64, 818–822. JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency),
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Manual on flood control planning. Project for the enhancement of capabilities in flood control and Sabo
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Kuichling, E., 1889. The relation between the rainfall and the discharge of sewers in populous districts.
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Volcanoes magnify Metro Manila's southwest monsoon rains and lethal floods. Front. Earth Sci. 2:60–
105. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ feart.2014.00036. Manning, R., 1891. On the flow of water in open
channels and pipes. Trans. Inst. Civ. Eng. Ireland 20, 818–822.

Ancog R. Fire Occurrence and Fire Mitigation Strategies in a Grassland Reforestation Area in the
Philippines. 2016. Available at: Crossref. 9. Trillanes A. Temporal Analysis and Geo-Mapping of Fire
Incidents in the City of Manila. 2015. Available at: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/ 7393211/.
Improving Fire Services using Spatio-Temporal Analysis: Fire Incidents in Manila
Conference Paper · July 2017 DOI: 10.1109/TENCONSpring.2017.8070013

Abstract— The spatio-temporal analysis of fire could allow decision makers to prepare an effective fire
management plan that makes efficient use of needed resources. This study aims to analyze fire data in
the City of Manila from 2011 to 2015 through spatio-temporal analysis. A total of 2,823 fire incidents
were investigated and fires due to faulty electrical connections occurring from 4PM to 8PM emerged as
the time with the most number of fires. Daily pattern does not show much variation although the
monthly pattern shows that the summer months have higher number of fire occurrences compared with
the rest of the months except for September, which had most number of recorded fires during the 5-
year period. Further research direction can include determining the impact of socioeconomic and
environmental factors in fire incidence likewise the utilization of geo-visualization techniques, prediction
model and simulation as tools in improving fire service and management.

Keywords—e-government, e-participation, local government units, e-commerce, portal, website, public

services, citizen;

INTRODUCTION AND ITS BACKGROUND Fire has dependably and will dependably be natural and
essential wonder in environmental frameworks. Yet, due to an expansion brought on by anthropogenic
activities, fires are negatively affecting the environment as well as society and the economy. The chance
of incidents satisfying the prerequisites to be named a disaster is expanding accordingly on increased
population densities and expanded settlement in high-hazard areas (Arthurson, 2000). In the
Philippines, fire events have incremented significantly over the years and are major elements of
economy and ecological troubles each year. The Philippines achieved a record high of 17,138 fire
incidents in 2015 alone. In May of the same year, the third worst fire incident in the Philippines was
recorded with the burning down of Kentex Factory in Valenzuela City killing 74 individuals. In February
2016, there were 2,571 fire incidents recorded nationwide with the National Capital Region accounting
for more than 600 of the recorded incidents. The Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) reported that an
average of 9 fire incidents take place per day nationwide and NCR has the most astounding fire
occurrence record over the years. Fire safety is a major concern in the City of Manila with 1.7 million
people. Majority of fire cases in Manila were due to faulty electrical connection usually caused by illegal
connection especially in slum areas (Balahadia, Trillanes and Armildes,2015). In 2016, over 700 fire
incidents were recorded in the city resulting to damage worth more than 130 million pesos. These
findings bring to fore the importance of raising awareness and providing education related to fire
prevention. Manila’s present high densities might be hard to oversee but the fire problems in the city
must be addressed properly by authorities and fire program dissemination must take place. Clearly, the
emergency work force needs to gain all fundamental information to prevent fires and losses in the
community (Asgary, Ghaffari, and Levy,2010). Keeping in mind the end goal to alleviate the loss of
human life and other unfavorable impacts of rapidly spreading fires, a spatio-temporal analysis of
Manila fires was conducted to provide property owners and critical decision-makers with a better insight
into the temporal and spatial variations of fires (Strydom and Savage, 2016). Today, most of the
research regarding fire applies spatial and temporal method for analysis. A study of the spatio-temporal
analysis of fire is lacking because most of the current works on fires have been focused on the cases in
developed countries such Canada (Asgary et.al, 2010), Australia (Corcoran et.al.,2011) and among
others. With only few studies have been investigated in developing countries and regions especially in
the Philippines. The spatio-temporal examination of private flames could permit authorities to arrange
viable resource allocation in the fire administration as indicated by fire incident in space and time
(Asgary, Naini, and Levy, 2012). Exact fire mapping techniques that can give patterns of fire occurrences
are critical for understanding fire frequency and dispersion using temporal and spatial analysis. The
mapping of areas prone to hazard is a common practice in disaster management and aids in identifying
at risk areas as well as providing insight to the spatio-temporal changes of natural hazards (Strydom and
Savage, 2016). The use of geo-mapping to show fire incidents can help the fire service optimize its
decision-making to improve their services to the community. A study by Asgary and Ghaffaru (2010)
found GIS (Geographical Information System) as a good tool to analyze and visualize data to discover
possible patterns to fire activities. A GIS application, which creates a zone map of the required level of
preparedness for emergency situations, is used for the planning of allocation of rescue forces (V.-P.
Ihamäki, 1997). According to Fontana, Favre, and Fetz (1999), Holborn, Nolan and Golt (2003), and
Hasofer and Thomas (2006), various reviews have been conducted to show the fire losses and damages
to enhance structure and limit fire losses and damages in other countries. However, these are generally
unstudied in the Philippines. A study by Velasco (2013) concluded that there is a need to review the
present effort on fire prevention and control by the BFP and local government 978-1-5090-6255-
3/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE units. Research should be done on determinants of fire factors to identify
specific points for intervention which could guide future policy and planning for fire risk reduction. This
paper seeks to describe fire incidents in Manila through appropriate information and communication
technology (ICT) tools in order to provide meaningful information that stakeholders can use in making
informed decision relevant to disaster preparedness and prevention activities at the local level through
spatio-temporal analysis and geographic patterns. The study was confined to fire incidents that occurred
in Manila from 2011-2015 as recorded by the Operation and Arson Department of BFP Manila. No cross-
validation was done with other reports or databases available at the BFP National Headquarters
considering that available data in the National Headquarters are also sourced from the different district
headquarters.

II. METHODOLOGIES

Case Study Implementation Manila is the capital and the second-biggest city of the Philippines. It is one
of 16 urban areas comprising Metro Manila, with a population of 1.78 million in 2016 making it one of
the most populous cities in the region. It is also the world's most densely populated city with 42,857
individuals for each square kilometer, or 111,002 individuals for every square mile. Manila has grown
rapidly over the last century, except during the period between 1990 and 2000 when it had a negative
development rate of 0.13%. Between 2000 and 2010, the population had a normal yearly development
rate of 0.44%. Given its population density, a significant number of people are housed in make-shift
structures in close quarters allowing fires to spread rapidly when these happen. Zurbano (2016) of the
Manila Standard reported that based on official data, 470 fire incidents occurred in Manila from January
1 to December 31, 2015. In March of that year alone, 51 incidents were reported which roughly
translates to two cases per day; a figure that is significantly high when compared with monthly average
of 30 fire incidents. Figure 1 a. Manila Map b. Manila Map Population Density The city, as shown in
Figure 1.a, is composed of different districts namely: Tondo, Binondo, Quiapo, San Nicolas, Sta. Cruz,
Sampaloc, San Miguel, Ermita, Intramuros, Malate, Paco, Pandacan, Port Area, Sta. Ana, Sta. Mesa and
San Andres Bukid. Figure 1.b. shows the density population of some districts via concentration map.
Tondo is the most densely populated territory in Manila, representing 38% of the aggregate population,
trailed by Sampaloc (20.7%) and Santa Ana (10.7%). Data Collections and Procedures The cases reported
in this review occurred during the period 1 January, 2011 to 31 December, 2015 and were investigated
by the Arson Section of the Bureau of Fire and Protection (BFP) Manila Headquarters. Data was gathered
through reference to the reports produced by the BFP. The nature of the causes of fire incidents have
been categorized into a variety of groups and other fire attributes such as the time, day, month, year,
district, and amount of damages were coded. A total of 2,823 fire incidents were recorded from 2011 to
2015. An initial review of the Fire Reports was done to determine the extent of documentation of fires.
Additional materials, particularly to clarify some entries in the fire reports, were gathered through a
focus group discussion with the Operation and Arson Department of BFP. The series of interviews
helped in examining and understanding how fires occur, how the BFP responds to it and how reporting
is done. Document reviews were also done to fill specific gaps. After the review, a masterlist of all fire
events based on the individual reports was completed using Microsoft Excel worksheet. Since the raw
data contained addresses of the places where the fires occurred, these must be manually geocoded via
longitude and latitude for processing. However, there were entries with incomplete addresses making it
difficult to pinpoint the exact location of the fire incident. Those with incomplete, unidentified addresses
or locations from the records were manually searched one by one in the Internet. Inquiries were also
made with residents to locate the streets or barangays stated in the records to identify the areas
affected by fires. With the latitude and longitude completed for each fire occurrence, data was exported
through Google Maps API to display the result and plot marks represented by various color labels in
Google Maps. Each record contained details of the fire occurrence such as the alert level, date and time,
cause of fire, location or district. These were also processed using SPSS for further analysis. Spatio-
temporal analysis was performed to uncover patterns in the fire incidents which could provide useful
insight into fire management.

III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS According to the results obtained in the analysis of cumulative fire
incidences from 2011 to 2015, a total of 2,823 incidents were reported in the 16 districts of the City of
Manila. Figure 2. Fire Distribution per District 2011-2015 The distribution of fire events of the different
districts represented by figure 2. The highest number fire was reported in Tondo with 699 incidents,
closely followed by Sampaloc with 568. The least number of incidents was reported in San Nicolas t 15.
The high incidence of fire events in Tondo and Sampaloc may be attributed to its total population. Based
on the August 2015 Census of Population and Housing by the National Statistics Office, Tondo is the
most densely populated district accounting for 38% of the total population followed by Sampaloc with
20.7 As shown in Table 1, there are 10 categories used in classifying the cause of fire. The highest
number is attributed to electrical connection at 1,576, which accounts for 55% of all recorded fire
incidents Similar causes and results were also identified in other countries in the Asian continent such as
Dubai although in Singapore, the highest number of fires was due to rubbish chute fires which
accounted for 38% of residential incidents (Alqassim and Daeid, 2014). Table 1. Fire Causes tabulation
per year Figure 3 shows the radar graphs representing the fire incidents for the period 2011-2015
reflecting the hourly, daily, monthly and yearly patters of fire in Manila. Fire incidents start to rise by
9AM and peaking at 7PM before slowly going Spatio-Temporal Analysis Figure 3. Fire Distribution on
Time, day, Month and Year Figure 4. Fire Distribution on Time, Day and Year per District down until it
reaches its lowest number by 4AM. As far as the frequency of fires on a daily basis, the graph shows that
the number of daily occurrences does not have that significant variance. The lowest incident is reflected
on Sundays which accounts for 12.9% of total fire. An increasing number of fire events is recorded as the
summer months’ approach. The graph shows that May and March exhibit the most incidence of fire
events but eventually the accumulated result with the highest fire event is the month of September at
10.1%. This is unexpected considering that March is declared as the Fire Prevention Month of the
Philippines and the highest temperatures usually occur during the summer period. Figure 4 shows the
spatio-temporal analysis where fire occurrences were investigated through time, day, and location
(district). As fire event occurs in geographic space, it is observed that most fire occurrences were in
Tondo. The obtained result show that between 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM in the morning, fire incidents
totaled 699 in Tondo while 568 cases were reported in Sampaloc. This may be attributed to the
increased use of electrical appliances and other devices resulting to overheating and electrical overload.
The least incidents were reported between 4:00AM to 8:00AM and the distribution throughout the rest
of the day is fairly even. Daily, most of the incidents occurred on a Saturday and most of the reported
cases were in the densely-populated areas of Tondo, Sampaloc and Sta. Cruz. Table 2. Fire Distribution
per month The districts of Tondo, Sta.Cruz, Sampaloc, Ermita and Sta. Ana had the most number of fire
incidents from 2011- 2015. Table 2 shows the fire frequencies in the different Manila districts. Most of
fire-prone areas, which are residential in nature, are heavily congested with inadequate infrastructure
and utilities to support it. These areas also have a high population of informal settlers living in decrepit,
makeshift houses located in slums and other danger zones. A study by Carmano (2007) reported that
most of the fire occur in congested districts especially in Tondo and Sampaloc squatter and slum areas
where houses are constructed with easily combustible materials. Majority of fire incidents were caused
by electrical connection related reasons, unattended open flame and cigarette butts. These main causes
are the most common across all districts. Out of the 2,823 reported cases, 434 have undetermined
causes as reported by the Arson Department of the Manila BFP (see Figure 5). Figure 6 shows the
concentration of fire incidents in Manila for the period covered. The top causes are heavily dispersed
throughout the districts with higher concentration in congested areas while it can be noted that there is
less concentration for causes with the least number of occurrences. Figure 5. Distribution of fire causes
per district Figure 6. Fire causes distribution in Manila 2011-2015 Figure 7. Fire Incidents Distribution in
Manila during 2011- 2015 Least Causes distribution Top Causes distribution 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In Fig. 7, the intensity plots of the yearly fire cases are presented through heat maps. Recorded incidents
from 2011 to 2015 are 566, 515, 612, 623, 507, respectively. Patterns from the maps generated appear
comparable with each other. The concentration of most fires appears to be in the same districts across
all years. Immense fires are a very incessant event in many slum and squatter settlement in Manila due
to outrageous proximity and high density of shelters, narrow alleys, obstructing access of fire fighters,
inadequately wired electrical system of the use of kerosene stoves and lamps, lack of water sources to
douse the flames and the combustibility of construction materials CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATION Fire can be classified as among the most dangerous incidents and have often led to
disasters resulting to significant losses and damages. The study showed an insight into the spatial and
temporal distribution of fire in Manila, which indicated that Tondo is the most prone to fires caused by
electrical connection related reasons. The highest incidents are reported from 4:00PM to 8:00AM
especially during the summer months. Pinpointing the location where most fires occur and determining
the major causes suggest that priority should be given to the development of appropriate safety
standards in affected areas. The spatio-temporal characteristics of fire incidents in Manila presented in
this paper can serve as inputs in developing a fire management plan to ensure an efficient and effective
allocation of resources, including human resources, especially in priority areas. Applying a spatio-
temporal analysis provides insights regarding historic fire-incidents resulting in an improved
understanding on where, when and why fires happened. This is necessary knowledge in order to better
prepare fire services for fire-fighting such as acquisition and allocation of fire-fighting equipment to the
different fire stations, fire prevention measures to be implemented, assignment of BFP personnel to
fires stations whose area of responsibility cover the most fire-prone areas, among others. The results of
the study can also be used as input by the local government in existing policies on inspection of facilities,
issuance of appropriate permits, zoning and other control measures. Furthermore, the study can also
serve as basis in developing a more advanced method of data analysis which may lead to the prediction
of fire similar to the method used in predictive policing and drafting budget justification for fire
prevention and related activities. As regards future research, there is much to be examined using spatio-
temporal analysis. The spatio-temporal analysis exclusively uses historic data allowing statements on
historic fires. It would be interesting to develop a model for making predictions on where and when fires
considering specific environmental conditions such as heat, weather patterns, humidity. Through
simulation, utilization of fire services resources can be improved by assigning these in key areas where
timeliness in addressing fire incidents can go a long way in reducing damage. Other areas that may be
examined and input to simulation include the socioeconomic and environmental factors that are
contributory to fire occurrence.

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 REVIEW ON THE IMPACTS OF WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE PHILIPPINES

Van Ryan Kristopher R. Galarpe1, 1Department of Physics, College of Science and Mathematics,
University of Science and Technology of Southern Philippines C.M. Recto Avenue, Lapasan, Cagayan de
Oro, 9000 Philippines  For correspondence E-mail: vanryangalarpe@gmail.com

March, 2017

ABSTRACT:

The Republic Act (RA) 9003-Ecological Solid Waste Management (ESWM) Act of 2000 of the Philippines
provides the mandate and framework for solid waste management in the country. The implementation
however on the local government units reflects the lack of institutional arrangements for waste
management. This has been reflected through the utilization of unregulated dumpsites and landfills
exhaustively although other alternatives can be considered. Primary reasons were drawn from
inadequate technical and financial resources, lack of political will, unwillingness of stakeholders, and
minimal local awareness. Consequently, there is absence of comprehensive monitoring scheme of
dumpsites and landfills operation in the country. Present studies reviewed in this paper evidenced the
threat that disposal sites may pose to the environment from potential leaching of hazardous chemicals
due to dumped wastes. Exposure of communities to health risks is also reviewed in this paper. Present
review also highlights the opportunities drawn by adjacent community through employment
(scavenging) from the disposal sites. While these disposal sites may attract locals or informal settlers
due to perceived opportunities, they are similarly exposed to health risk. Overall, this review also
summarizes key points to propose a mechanism to improve the solid waste disposal system to meet the
policies of RA 9003.

Keywords: disposal sites, Republic Act (RA) 9003, landfill, dumpsites

INTRODUCTION

Rapid urbanization of developing countries coupled with population growth resulted to uncontrolled
generation of uncharacterized solid wastes (SW) elsewhere [1, 2, 3, 4]. In the case of the Philippines,
waste generation rate progressed from 10.6 million tonnes in 2012 to a projected doubling rate by 2025
[5], consequently increasing the need for more disposal facilities. Disposal facilities commonly landfills
and dumpsites are convenient options owing to accessibility, inexpensiveness, and potentiality for
methane gas recovery [6, 7] although other alternatives are available (e.g recycling and composting).
However, the prevalent use of landfills and dumpsites in the case of the Philippines is reflective of the
gaps for solid waste management (SWM) implementation under the Republic Act 9003 (RA 9003)-
Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000. This is attributed to te high cost of management and
lack of enabling agencies [4], hindering SWM. Disposal sites must have appropriate control for leachate,
landfill gas, and a lined pit [8] to ensure safe operations [9]. On site monitoring, however, revealed
incomplete leachate and gas handling [10] and a need to rehabilitate the disposal site facilities. This is a
major concern for countries like the Philippines whose major option for SW disposal is through landfills
and dumpsites. The possibility of environmental contamination and human exposure to leachate and
other contaminants from the disposal sites are inevitable. Previous studies revealed contamination of
groundwater [8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17], contamination of soil [18], human health risks [19, 20, 21, 22,
23], and risk exposure of other organisms [24, 25, 26]. While established literature elsewhere
exhaustively summarized the potential hazards brought by disposal sites, however, few studies focused
in the case of the Philippines. It is seen vital to address SWM by integrating the informal sector [27] and
establishing institutional arrangements [28] to mitigate the dependence on disposal sites. Similarly, a
need to present the current status of SWM and disposal sites in the country is timely to extrapolate
recommendations for establishing future SWM strategies. This paper highlights the concern by trying to
synthesize the environmental ill effects, potential health risks, and economic opportunities brought by
landfills and dumpsites in the country. The review covers published studies covering the year 2000 to
present. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS 2.1 Framework This paper reviews the impacts of waste disposal
sites in the Philippines. Emphases were given to the impacts it may bring to the environment, public
health, and economic opportunity of the adjacent community. Primarily these key areas were evaluated
to extrapolate an overall condition of disposal sites direct effect to communities. Figure 1 presents the
conceptual framework of the study. Environmental impacts of disposal sites were reviewed as a basis to
recommend for either closure of disposal sites as per mandate of RA 9003 or for rehabilitation. Public
health was also discussed in this review to draw findings of the health risks disposal sites may bring to
communities. Present literature does not show a strong association between disposal sites to acquiring
diseases, however, few studies found prevalence of certain diseases [23, 29, 30, 31, 32] common among
adjacent communities. Economic opportunities were also evaluated to potentially recommend
livelihood option among household adjacent to disposal site if the closure will be considered. These
areas were seen as vital features to establish available data on the environmental ill effects, public
health risks, and economic opportunities of present disposal practices (landfills and dumpsites) may
bring and to potentially recommend a shift towards sustainable SWM practices. 2.2 Description of
reviewed disposal sites The disposal sites reviewed in this paper are summarized in Table 1. These were
chosen based on available published studies about disposal sites in the Philippines. Overall, about
twenty one landfills, open dumpsites, and controlled dumpsites served as reviewed sites in this paper.
380 ISSN 1013-5316;CODEN: SINTE 8 Sci.Int.(Lahore),29(1),379-385, 2017 March-April Fig (1) Conceptual
Framework of the Study Table (1) Overview of disposal sites reviewed in this paper Disposal Site
Location Description Number of Studies reviewed Cebu City Sanitary Landfill Cebu City, Region 7 15.41
ha 450 tons of waste/day [20] 7 Umapad dumpsite Mandaue City, Region 7 5 ha 195 tons of waste/day
[33] 1 Lapu-lapu City dumpsite Lapu-lapu City, Region 7 No data 1 Bais City landfill Negros Oriental No
data 1 Bayawan City landfill Negros Oriental No data 1 Zayas landfill Cagayan de Oro Region 10 13 ha
[34] 3 Payatas dumpsite Quezon City, NCR 13 ha 5 Smokey Mountain Manila, NCR Operated for 40 years
and was closed in 1995 1 Rodriguez dumpsite Rodriguez, Rizal, NCR No data 1 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
3.1 Current status of disposal sites The waste generation of the Philippines over the last four years
increased (Table 2). Metropolitan cities in key Regions (3, 4a, 6, 7 and NCR) had high SW generation as
evidence of growing economy, population growth, and changing lifestyle [1]. In return the need of goods
and services increased, consequently producing more waste streams at the latter. The RA 9003 prohibits
establishment and operation of open dumpsites [36]. The present state, however reveals continuous
use evidenced in the third quarter report of 2011 with the Philippines having a total of 640 open
dumpsites and 38 landfills [20, 36]. Figure 2 presents the total number of dumpsites in the Philippines.
The overall trend showed a slight decline on the total number of open dumpsite from 806 on 2008 to
523 on 2014. Regions 7, 1, and 5 had the most number of dumpsites while NCR, ARMM, and 4B ranked
the lowest. Sanitary landfill is another disposal site in the country. The total number however is less as
compared to open dumpsites. The overall number of landfills increased from 2008 to 2014 (with Regions
1, 3 and 4A ranking highest as of 2014 [36]. However, sanitary landfills gradually with poor maintenance
and regulation are presently converted into open dumpsite like the case of Cebu City Sanitary Landfill
[20] (see Figure 4). This is of primary concern given the economic growth in the metropolitan Table (2)
Projected solid waste generation per day (ton) [35] Region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 1709.17
1739.54 1769.90 1800.27 1830.64 2 1100.64 1120.19 1139.75 1159.31 1178.86 3 3631.99 3696.52
3761.05 3825.58 3890.12 4a 4145.52 4219.18 4292.83 4366.49 4440.15 4b 909.43 925.59 941.74 957.90
974.06 5 1878.74 1912.12 1945.50 1978.88 2012.26 6 2700.14 2748.11 2796.09 2844.06 2892.04 7
2605.68 2651.97 2698.27 2744.57 2790.86 8 1479.47 1505.75 1532.04 1558.33 1584.61 9 1391.95
1416.68 1441.41 1466.15 1490.88 10 1693.94 1724.03 1754.13 1784.23 1814.32 11 1818.05 1850.35
1882.65 1914.95 1947.26 12 1348.20 1372.15 1396.10 1420.06 1444.01 13 884.69 900.41 916.13 931.85
947.57 CAR 620.64 631.67 642.70 653.72 664.75 NCR 8601.60 8754.43 8907.26 9060.09 9212.92 ARMM
907.64 923.76 939.89 956.02 972.14 TOTAL 37427.46 38092.46 38757.46 39422.46 40087.46 . Fig (2)
Number of dumpsites still existing from 2008 to 2014 [36] Sci.Int.(Lahore),29(1),379-385, 2017 ISSN
1013-5316;CODEN: SINTE 8 381 March-April Fig (3) Number of operating sanitary landfills and sanitary
landfills under construction from 2008 to 2014 [36] a b c d Fig (4) Cebu City Sanitary Landfill a) MRF acts
as reservoir for excess waste from the landfill site; b) uncontained leachate pools; c) medical wastes
dumped in the landfill; and d) scavengers exposed to medical wastes [20] 3.2 Environmental Impacts of
waste disposal sites The impacts of waste disposal sites to the environment had been explored ranging
from ill effects to water, soil, plants, and scavenging animals [8, 11-18, 24, 25, 26]. This section reviews
the case of the Philippines disposal sites (refer to Table 3 and 4).Overall, most water quality parameters
on studied tube and deep wells were within the standard set except for coliform and total dissolved
solids (TDS). Underserviced communities in disposal sites utilized deep wells for domestic purposes [20,
36, 37], consequently increasing susceptibility to water borne illnesses. In the case of Cebu City Sanitary
Landfill high levels of total lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) were determined [16, 17]. This was in agreement
of the findings in Bais City and Bayawan City landfills with high levels of Pb [38]. Although present result
may not conclusively summarize the overall status owing to lack of studies, it is however clear that there
is potential migration of landfill contaminant to groundwater (see Table 3). Table (3) Water quality
adjacent to waste disposal sites in the Philippines Dumpsite/ Landfill Location Findings Reference studies
Cebu City Sanitary Landfill Region 7 Cebu City TDS Total coliform Total Cd and Pb were beyond the
standard [16] [17] Payatas dumpsite NCR, Quezon City Total coliform exceeded the standard high levels
of TDS, TSS and total coliform and low pH levels [15] [40] Rodriguez Landfill NCR Rodriguez , Rizal
Sporadic contamination of isotopes from leachate [41] Zayas landfill Region 10 Cagayan de Oro pH,
sulphate, chloride, and nitrates were within the standard [34] Bais landfill Bayawan fandfill Negros
Oriental Total coliform exceeded the standard Pb 0.022-0.057 ppm [39] Table 4 presents the summary
of review on soil, plants and toxicity studies adjacent to disposal sites. Studies on soils in disposal sites
revealed a higher concentration of mercury (Hg) [42, 43] as compared to world median level (0.05 ppm).
No direct study however associates directly Hg in soil to affect human health. A note similarly on TSP
study in Payatas dumpsite revealed presence of Pb and Cd [44]. Prolong exposure of human to air
particulate matter may result to health ill effects. Lastly, studies on both plants [45, 46] and animals [47]
exhibited potential toxicity. Analysis of corn’s roots, leaves, and seeds in the latter closed Smokey
Mountain showed high levels of Pb as compared to World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture
Organization (WHO/FAO) [46]. Laboratory analysis using leachate from Cebu City Sanitary landfill
exhibited toxicological response of tilapia fingerlings leading to mortality [47]. Table (4) Summary of
other environmental quality adjacent to waste disposal sites in the Philippines Dumpsite/l andfill
Location Findings Referenc e studies Soil Cebu City Sanitary Landfill Region 7 Cebu City Hg in soil (0.238
ppm) higher than the world median (0.05 ppm) [42] Zayas landfill Region 10 Cagayan de Oro Highest
recorded level of Hg was 0.164 ppm [43] Air & particulate matter Bais landfill Bayawan landfill Negros
Oriental Carbon dioxide concentration 390- 397 ppm [39] 382 ISSN 1013-5316;CODEN: SINTE 8
Sci.Int.(Lahore),29(1),379-385, 2017 March-April Payatas dumpsite NCR, Quezon City Pb and Cd found in
total suspended particulate (TSP) fraction [44] Toxicity studies Cebu City Sanitary landfill Region 7 Cebu
City Increased concentration (% v/v) kills Oreochromis niloticus [47] Muntingia calabura and Tridax
procumbens exhibited effective uptake of Hg [45] Smokey Mountain, Manila NCR Pb in roots (4.811
ppm), leaves (0.555 ppm), and seeds (0.676 ppm) in Zea mays (corn) were beyond the WHO/FAO
standard [46] 3.3 Public health Table 5 presents the summary of results for the health responses among
community adjacent to disposal sites. Prevalent diseases were gastrointestinal, upper respiratory and
skin diseases [15, 20, 33, 45, 47, 48]. Potentially, the use of contaminated tube and deep well’s [15, 17,
39, 40] may likely be attributed to cause gastrointestinal diseases. The occurrence of respiratory
diseases among neighbouring population to waste disposal site was relevant [29]. Present review is in
agreement with past studies on prevalence of respiratory symptoms among municipal solid waste
workers [30] and waste-picking children [49] which can be attributed to potential high levels of
particulate matter. Overall, the underserviced and poor environmental condition impacts the health of
slums [50] and increasing vulnerabilities to diseases. Table (5) Summary of health responses from
community adjacent to disposal sites Disposal Site and Location Findings Reference studies Cebu City
Sanitary Landfill, Cebu, Region 7 Gastrointestinal upper respiratory skin diseases dengue [20] [45]
Umapad dumpsite, Mandaue City, Region 7 Upper respiratory and skin diseases [33] Lapu-lapu City
dumpsite, Region 7 Gastrointestinal and upper respiratory health response [47] Zayas landfill, Cagayan
de Oro Region 10 Dengue cases [38] Payatas dumpsite, Quezon City Prevalence of diarrhoea and water
borne illnesses [15, 48] 3.4 Economic opportunities Despite the poor environmental condition adjacent
to disposal sites, informal settlers flocked these areas owing to perceived opportunities. This is the case
in most disposal sites since scavenging provides sustainable livelihood among those who cannot secure
employment in the formal urban market [51]. The informal sectors which included scavengers residing
near the sites are key players in SWM implementation. Economic dependence to disposal sites [52]
exists owing to perceived employment and resources [20, 33, 52, 53] (see Table 6). The highest income
recorded was in Payatas dumpsite [52] and the lowest recorded income was in Zayas landfill [38]. It is
evident however that stable monthly income can be generated from a site near to MRF like the case of
Lapu-lapu City dumpsite [37]. Distinctly, the implementation of RA 9003 affected the income of
scavengers in Umapad dumpsite [33]. Overall, average income of households in dumpsites ranged from
Php 3,000 –Php 12,000 which was still below the poverty line (refer to Table 7). Table (6) Summary of
economic opportunities of adjacent communities to disposal sites Disposal site/location Findings
Reference studies Cebu City Sanitary Landfill, Cebu Scavenging ranked highest as the form of
employment. [20] Umapad dumpsite, Mandaue City, Cebu About 300-400 households primarily relied
on the dumpsite to earn a living (scavenging) [33] Lapu-lapu city dumpsite, Cebu About 14% of
households were scavengers and 43% were MRF workers. [37] Payatas dumpsite, Quezon City Economic
dependency on garbage through scavenging, vending, and operating junkshop [52] Zayas landfill,
Cagayan de Oro City 84% of respondents were self- employed including scavengers. [38] Table (7)
Average income of adjacent community to disposal sites Disposal site/location Average income
Reference studies Cebu City Sanitary Landfill, Cebu Php 4,044.26/monthly [20] Umapad dumpsite,
Mandaue City, Cebu Php 146.08-387.82/daily [33] Lapu-lapu city dumpsite, Cebu Php 7,780.00/ monthly
[37] Payatas dumpsite, Quezon City Php131.00-421.14/ daily [52] Zayas landfill, Cagayan de Oro City
Php3,001-5,000/monthly [38] 3.5 Future trends for SWM To ensure a better environment, SWM
strategies must entirely enforce the mandate of RA 9003. This may include closure of the latter
dumpsites, establishment of a well- Sci.Int.(Lahore),29(1),379-385, 2017 ISSN 1013-5316;CODEN: SINTE
8 383 March-April engineered landfill, and reduction of SW by providing MRF in small communities. The
following are present practices that are recommended to be maximized and integrated in the SWM
strategies. 1. Rehabilitation the latter disposal sites through establishing methane gas facilities [54, 55,
56]. 2. Providing MRF and test its functionality in local communities. The MRF can provide economic
opportunities to the scavengers [37] while reducing the environmental impacts at the process level.
Similarly, scavengers can be provided with more systematic and convenient form of SW recovery [27]. 3.
Integration of vermicomposting as a waste management technology and livelihood alternative. 4. Lastly,
institutional arrangements [28] as an evidence of good governance through participation of various
stakeholders, awareness campaigns, and replication of innovative SWM technologies [57].

CONCLUSIONS

The review highlighted qualitatively the present status of SW disposal sites in the Philippines. Overall, it
can be inferred that potential contamination of disposal sites to environment can manifest in
groundwater, soil, air, plants, and scavenging animals adjacent to the site. Adjacent community can
similarly be affected jeopardizing their own health. Prevalence of gastrointestinal, skin, upper-
respiratory, and dengue diseases were likely common. Although disposal sites can pose health risks,
community tends to continually settle with present options owing to perceived economic dependence
through employment and resources. It is fundamental that local government units will consider the
economic options, health, and environment.

5. REFERENCE

[1] Idris, A., Inanc, B., M.N. Hassan, 2004. Overview of waste disposal and landfills/dumps in Asian
countries. Journal of material cycles and waste management, 6(2), 104-110. [2] Zurbrugg, C., 2002.
Urban solid waste management in low-income countries of Asia: How to cope with the garbage crisis.
Presented for: Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) Urban Solid Waste
Management Review Session, Durban, South Africa, 1-13. [3] Manaf, L. A., M.A.A. Samah, and N.I.M.
Zukki, 2009. Municipal solid waste management in Malaysia: Practices and challenges. Waste
management, 29(11): 2902-2906. [4] Guerrero, L. A., G. Maas, and W. Hogland, 2013. Solid waste
management challenges for cities in developing countries. Waste management, 33(1): 220-232. [5]
Guerrero, L. A., G. Maas, and W. Hogland, 2013. Solid waste management challenges for cities in
developing countries. Waste management, 33(1): 220-232. [6] Rushton, L., 2003. Health hazards and
waste management. British medical bulletin, 68(1): 183-197
 Awareness and Practices on Solid Waste Management among College Students in Mindanao State
University Maigo School of Arts and Trades
Margarita C. Paghasian Department of Humanities, Education and Social Sciences, Mindanao State
University, Philippines margiepaghasian@yahoo.com
March 1 2017

Abstract: Every educational institution is mandated by law to educate the public on the theories and
practices on solid waste management. To achieve effective and sustainable implementation of the
proper waste management practices, awareness with participation is the key to be involved in the Solid
Waste Management Program of an institution. Thus, this study was conducted to specifically look into
the significant relationship between the awareness and practices on solid waste management among
the college students of Mindanao State University – Maigo School of Arts and Trades. A descriptive
correlation research design was used in this study with 253 randomly- selected college students. It
employed an adopted questionnaire concerning the awareness of solid waste management of the
students and their practices. Data were gathered, analyzed and interpreted using the frequency and
percentage distribution and chi-square test. Findings showed that the awareness on solid waste
management of the students was high; their practices in terms of segregation, reduce and recycle were
good; and their practices in terms of recycle and disposal were fair. The awareness on solid waste
management of the students had no influence on their practices in terms of disposal however their
awareness had affected their practices specifically on segregation, reduce, reuse, and recycle.

Keywords: solid waste management, segregation, reduce, reuse, recycle

INTRODUCTION
Solid Waste management is the collection, transport or disposal and treatment of waste materials. It
relates to materials produced to human activities, and the process generally undertaken to endure its
effects on health, the environment and aesthetics. It reduces or eliminates adverse impacts on the
environment and human health rather supports economic development and improved the quality of
life. In today’s polluted world, learning the correct methods of handling the waste generated has
become essential (Marello and Helwege, 2014). All of the methods of waste prevention and waste
management require public participation. Oliva as cited by Villanueva (2013) said that education is an
important component of solid waste management that should be present to establish a good program
for the community. Awareness of solid waste management will create change on how people look at
garbage. People grew up thinking that garbage is garbage, it should not be touched or one should not go
near to it. They thought before that all types of garbage should just be thrown in one container (Sarino,
2014). According to Baula as cited by Punongbayan (2014), awareness accompanied by participation is
the key for students to be involved in the waste management program of the schools where effective
and sustainable implementation of the proper waste management practices could be achieved. Section
55-56 of Republic Act 9003 or The Ecological Solid Waste Management Act stipulates that the national
government in coordination with Department of Education (DepED), Technical Education and Skills
Development Authority (TESDA); Commission on Higher Education (CHED) and Philippine Information
Agency (PIA), should conduct a continuing education and information campaign on solid waste
management and strengthen the integration of environmental concerns in school curricula at all levels,
with particular emphasis on the theories and practices of waste management principles like segregation
at source, reduction, recycling, re-use and composting, in order to promote environmental awareness
and action among the citizenry. Segregation at source is a solid waste management practice of
separating different materials found in solid waste at the point of origin in order to promote recycling
and re-use of resources and to reduce the volume of waste for collection and disposal (Article 2, Section
3, RA 9003). Ambayic et al. (2013) cited that reduction is bringing down the amount of trash disposed by
consciously buying items that generate a lot of trash. It instills a culture of responsible waste
management among students while helping schools reduce their waste. Recycling saves landfill space
and also rescues the resources that were used to make another new product. It treats used or waste
materials through a process of making them suitable for beneficial use in a way that the original
products may lose their identity. In many cases, recycling can also save energy. Schools purchasing
paper products made from recycled content help to ensure a viable market for recycled products
(Griffiths, et al., 2010). Reuse is the process of recovering materials intended for the same or different
purpose without the alteration of physical and chemical characteristics (Art. 2, Sec. 3, R.A 9003). Re-
using saves the energy and resources that would have been used to make a new product and results in
less products going into the rubbish bin and ending up in landfill (Griffiths, et al., 2010). When none of
the 3Rs options apply, then responsible disposal of the waste is required. One very common
irresponsible disposal of waste is littering (Griffiths, et al. 2010). An inquiry was done on the solid waste
management program in the Municipality of Maigo, Lanao del Note, Mindanao, Philippines. It yielded
results that the people of the municipality had less orientation and awareness about it. Since Mindanao
State University – Maigo School of Arts and Trades (MSU-MSAT) is situated in this municipality and as a
learning institution, it is covered on the 3rd International Conference on Education and Training (ICET
2017) Copyright © 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press. This is an open access article under
the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Advances in Social Science,
Education and Humanities Research, volume 128 5 Awareness on Solid Waste Management Practices on
Solid Waste Management • Segregation • Reduce • Reuse • Recycle • Disposal mandate of the law
initiating actions and positive response towards addressing environmental problems. The campus has
organized the waste management program committee and was commissioned to institutionally
implement it. However, as observed, still voluminous wastes are continuously accumulated every week
in the campus from various practicum activities specially in shopworks in the different laboratories in
the Department of Industrial Technology (DIT) and Department of Hotel and Restaurant Management
(DSHRM). The institutional solid waste management committee formulated some policies yet, its full
implementation and monitoring were so lax for some reasons. The objective of this study was to find the
level of awareness and practices on solid waste management among college students of MSU-MSAT.
Specifically, it aimed to achieve the following: 1. To identify the level of awareness on solid waste
management of MSU-MSAT college students; 2. To determine their practices on solid waste
management in terms of segregation, reduce, reuse, recycle and disposal; 3. To look into the significant
relationship between the awareness of the college students and their practices on solid waste
management. Figure 1 Schematic Presentation of the Study.

II. METHODS This study used the descriptive- correlation research design which is used to relate two or
more variables. This is used to find significant relationship between the level of awareness and practices
of the students on solid waste management. The respondents of this study were the college students of
MSU-MSAT. They were chosen because they constituted the greater number of population in the said
institution. Out of 1,697 total number of college students, there were 253 randomly selected students
during the 2nd semester of the academic year 2015-2016. The sample size was determined by
unrestricted random sampling using the formula:       p1PxVNSe  p1SeNV Ss 2 2    Where: Ss
= sample size N = total number of population V = standard value of 2.58 Se = sampling error 0.01 P =
largest possible proportion 0.05 The main instrument used in gathering data was a questionnaire which
had two parts. The first part of the questionnaire was adopted from Abolucion, et al. (2012) which had
20 statements that were concerned about the level of awareness of the students towards solid waste
management. The respondents were asked if they were: fully aware (4), aware (3), not so aware (2) and
not aware (1) of the solid waste management. The second part of it was in the form of checklist adopted
from Cahoy (2013)t which dealt on the solid waste management practices in terms of segregation,
reduce, reuse, recycle and disposal. It had four levels of quality: always (4), often (3), seldom (2) and
never (1). The questionnaire was referred to the researcher’s adviser for comments, suggestions and
corrections. After every correction, the instrument was submitted to the panel and was checked
thoroughly by the Thesis Panel for final corrections and modifications. A letter was drafted to get
permission from the office of the campus head for data gathering. After getting the permission, the
questionnaire was personally fielded and conducted to the respondents so that the nature and
objectives of the study could be explained. The data were gathered, tallied and recorded for statistical
treatment, analysis and interpretation. The following tools were used in the analysis of data in this
study: Percentage Distribution Formula. This was used to summarize the variables under study. Formula:
100x n f P  Where: P = percentage f = frequency n = total number of respondents Weighted Mean. This
was used to determine the level of awareness and practices on solid waste management of the
students. Formula: f fx X  Where: X = weighted mean f = frequency Σfx = summation of weighted
means Chi-square. This was used to determine the significant relationship between the independent
and dependent variable. Formula: E E)(O X Σ 2 2   Where: X 2 = chi-square O = observed frequency E =
expected frequency To interpret the level of awareness on solid waste management of the students, the
scale below was used: 3.25 - 4.00 Very High 2.50 - 3.24 High 1.75 - 2.49 Low 1.00 - 1.74 Very Low
Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 128 6 To interpret the solid
waste management practices, the scale below was used: 3.25 - 4.00 Very Good 2.50 - 3.24 Good 1.75 -
2.49 Fair 1.00 - 1.74 Poor

III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The results and discussions on the findings relative to the study are
arranged in the following order: awareness on solid waste management of the students practices on
solid waste management of the students in terms of segregation, reduce, reuse, recycle and disposal
significance of the relationship between the awareness of the students and their practices on solid
waste management. Awareness on solid waste management, Table 1 shows the level of awareness on
solid waste management of the students. Table 1 Awareness on Solid Waste Management of the
Students Item Descriptions Responses Fully GWA Interpretation Aware Aware Not so Aware Not Aware
1 Republic Act 9003 26 87 61 79 2.24 Low 2 Solid Waste Management (SWM) Program of the School 42
131 42 38 2.70 High 3 School’s orientation on SWM Program 19 113 74 47 2.41 Low 4 Policies of the
SWM program 16 101 86 50 2.33 Low 5 Corresponding sanctions of any violations of the SWM program
21 88 99 45 2.34 Low 6 Solid waste management committee of the school 21 102 90 40 2.41 Low 7
Purpose of the management on implementing the SWM program 27 102 86 38 2.47 Low 8 School’s
SWM program is a big help in achieving clean and green environment 55 105 56 37 2.70 High 9
Importance of the SWM 49 105 54 45 2.62 High 10 Practicing SWM saves money and energy 29 111 72
41 2.51 High 11 Student`s roles and responsibilities towards school’s SWM program 29 98 68 58 2.39
Low 12 Unity is very significant in making up and internalizing the SWM 43 105 71 34 2.62 High 13
Implementation will be successful and effective if concerned people will participate 45 122 52 34 2.70
High 14 Discipline on SWM matters a lot 46 121 53 33 2.71 High 15 Proper disposal of garbage 59 119 32
43 2.77 High 16 Possible illnesses that you can get whenever trashes are not properly disposed 49 124
38 42 2.71 High 17 Before throwing garbage, it is a must to read those trash-can labels for segregation
72 119 26 36 2.90 High 18 Identification of biodegradable from non-biodegradable 82 104 32 35 2.92
High 19 Importance of recycling 79 105 33 36 2.90 High 20 Waste minimization practices like reuse,
recycle and reduce. 58 117 34 44 2.75 High Weighted Mean 2.60 High As shown in the table, the highest
generalweighted average of 2.92 fell on item 18, “Identification of biodegradable from
nonbiodegradable, interpreted as “High”. The least general weighted average of 2.24 fell on item 1,
Republic Act 9003, interpreted as “Low”. The weighted mean value was 2.60 interpreted as “High”. It
implies that the students have enough knowledge on solid waste management. They have high level of
awareness on the identification of biodegradable from non-biodegradable while low level in Republic
Act 9003 or The Ecological Solid Waste Management Act. Table 2 presents the summary of assessment
on the level of awareness on solid waste management of the students. Table 2 Summary on the Level of
Awareness of the Students on Solid Waste Management Responses Interpretation Frequency
Percentage (%) Fully Aware Very high 65 25.69 Aware High 133 52.57 Not So Aware Low 46 18.18 Not
Aware Very Low 9 3.56 Total 253 100 It showed that out of 253 students, 48.62 % or 123 students were
aware on solid waste management, 25.69% or 65 students had very high awareness, 22.13% or 56
students had low and only 9 students or 3.56% had very low awareness on solid waste management.
This implies that most of the college students are fully aware on solid waste management. Practices on
solid waste management of the students students’ practices on solid waste management in terms of
segregation.Table 3 shows the students’ practices on solid waste management in terms of segregation.
As shown in the table, the highest average weighted value of 2.70 interpreted as “Good” fell under item
1,“I segregate biodegradable (paper, banana peels, cardboard, and vegetables) and nonbiodegradable
(plastic toys, glass, steel, rubber) wastes at school”. The least weighted value of 2.47 interpreted as
“Fair” fell under item 5, “I segregate recyclable items for collection”. The weighted mean was 2.61
Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 128 7 interpreted as “Good”.
This means that the students have good practices on solid waste management in terms of segregation.
The students are segregating well biodegradable and non-biodegradable wastes and slightly segregate
recyclable items for collection. Table 4 summarizes the practices on solid waste management in terms of
segregation. Table 3 Practices on Solid Waste Management in Terms of Segregation Solid Waste
Management Practices Never Seldom Often Always GWA Interpretation SEGREGATION 1. I segregate
biodegradable (paper, banana peels, cardboard, and vegetables) and non-biodegradable (plastic toys,
glass, steel, rubber) wastes at school. 29 59 125 40 2.70 Good 2. I separate recyclable wastes (paper,
cardboard, plastic bottles) from non-recyclable (food wastes, leaves, twigs) wastes at school. 32 51 134
36 2.69 Good 3. I separate non-harmful wastes from toxic and hazardous wastes such as pentel pens,
laboratory chemicals, ink, cell batteries and others. 35 72 110 36 2.58 Good 4. I mix all the garbage in
one garbage container. 54 75 98 26 2.62 Good 5. I segregate recyclable items for collection. 41 76 111
25 2.47 Fair Weighted Mean 2.61 Good Table 4 Summary Table on Students’ Practices on Solid Waste
Management in terms of Segregation Responses Interpretation Frequency Percentage (%) Always Very
Good 53 20.95 Often Good 129 50.99 Seldom Fair 60 23.72 Never Poor 11 4.35 Total 253 100 It showed
that out of 253 students, 50.99% or 129 of the students had good practices in segregation, 23.72% or 60
students had fair practices and 20.95% or 53 students had very good and 4.35% or 11 students had
segregated waste materials poorly. This implies that most of the students have good practices in
segregating solid waste. Students’ practices on solid waste management in terms of reduce. Table 5
presents the students’ practices on solid waste management in terms of reduce. Table 5 Practices on
Solid Waste Management in Terms of Reduce Solid Waste Management Practices Never Seldom Often
Always GWA Interpretation REDUCE 1. I borrow, share, and/or rent things that are needed occasionally.
39 69 121 24 2.51 Good 2. I buy only what I need so that I will not end up throwing away extra food. 36
60 102 55 2.70 Good 3. I pack my lunch in reusable lunchbox so that I can’t buy wrapped/packed food at
the school. 49 56 92 56 2.61 Good 4. I bring water in reusable water bottles than buying water in
oneused plastic bottles at the school. 54 55 114 30 2.47 Fair 5. I am cautious and responsible to every
waste I produced. 35 52 111 55 2.74 Good Weighted Mean 2.61 Good The table presents the highest
average weighted value of 2.74 interpreted as “Good” fell on item 5, “I am cautious and responsible to
every waste I produced”. The least average weighted value of 2.47 fell on item 4, “I bring water in
reusable water bottles than buying water in one-used plastic bottles at the school”, interpreted as
“Fair”. The weighted mean value was 2.61 interpreted as “Good”. This implies that the students have
good practices on reducing solid waste. The students are cautious and responsible in every waste they
produced and moderately practiced bringing water in reusable water bottles than buying water in one-
used plastic bottles at school. Table 6 summarizes the students’ practices on solid waste management in
terms of reduce. Table 6 Summary Table on Students’ Practices on Solid waste Management in Terms of
Reduce Responses Interpretation Frequency Percentage (%) Always Very Good 76 30.04 Often Good 105
41.50 Seldom Fair 66 26.09 Never Poor 6 2.37 Total 253 100 Advances in Social Science, Education and
Humanities Research, volume 128 8 It showed that out of 253 students, 41.50 % or 105 students of
them had good practices on reducing waste; 30.04% or76 students had very good practices; 26.09% or
66 of them had fair practices; and 2.37% or 6 students had practiced poorly. This means that most of the
students have commendable practices on reducing solid waste. Practices on Solid Waste Management
in Terms of Reuse. Table 7 presents the students’ practices on solid waste management in terms of
reuse. Table 7 Practices on Solid Waste Management of the Students in Terms of Reuse Solid Waste
Management Practices Never Seldom Often Always GWA Interpretation REUSE 1. I reuse my old
materials than buying a new one. 36 58 118 41 2.65 Good 2. I keep those unfilled papers and used it as
scratch. 39 53 111 50 2.68 Good 3. I reuse grocery bags. 43 72 97 41 2.54 Good 4. I reuse washable food
containers. 41 62 99 51 2.63 Good 5. I reuse scrap paper into memo pads. 57 71 103 22 2.36 Fair
Weighted Mean 2.57 Good The table displayed the highest weighted average value of 2.68 fell on item
2, “I keep those unfilled papers and used it as scratch”, interpreted as “Good”. The least weighted value
of 2.36 fell on item 2, “I reuse scrap paper into memo pad”, interpreted as “Fair”. The weighted mean
value was 2.57 interpreted as “Good”. This signifies that the students have good practices on solid waste
management in terms of reuse. The students practiced on keeping unfilled papers and using it as scratch
while they fairly practiced reusing scrap paper into memo pads. Table 8 reveals the summary
assessment of students’ practice on solid waste management in terms of reuse. Table 8 Summary Table
in the Practices on Solid Waste Management of the Students in Terms of Reuse Responses
Interpretation Frequency Percentage (%) Always Very Good 78 30.83 Often Good 120 47.43 Seldom Fair
47 18.58 Never Poor 8 3.16 Total 253 100 It revealed that out of 253 students, 47.43% 120 of them had
good practices on solid waste management in terms of reuse, 78% or 30.83 of them had very good
practices, 18.58% or 47 students had fair practices and 3.16% or 8 students had practice poorly. This
implies that most of the students have acceptable practices on solid waste management in terms of
reuse. Practices on solid waste management in terms of recycle. Table 9 reveals the students’ practices
in terms of recycle. Table 9 Practice on Solid Waste Management in Terms of Recycle of the Students
Solid Waste Management Practices Never Seldom Often Always GWA Interpretation RECYCLE 1. I
convert or redesign waste materials into a new product. 47 72 109 25 2.44 Fair 2. I make decors out of
plastic wrappers and other colorful waste materials. 55 72 99 27 2.39 Fair 3. I ignore the importance of
recycling. 73 51 94 35 2.64 Good 4. I initiate generating-income out of waste materials. 52 87 95 19 2.32
Fair Weighted Mean 2.47 Fair It showed the highest average weighted mean of 2.64 interpreted as
“Good” fell on item 1, “I ignore the importance of recycling”. The lowest average weighted mean of 2.32
fell on item 5, “I initiate generatingincome out of waste materials”, interpreted as “Fair”. The weighted
mean value was 2.47 interpreted as “Fair”. This implies that the students have fair practices in recycling
waste materials. The students are informed about the importance of recycling but they slightly initiate
generating-income out of waste. Table 10 presents the summary on the assessment of students’
practices on solid waste management in terms of recycle. Table 10 Summary Table in the Practices on
Solid waste Management in Terms of Recycle of the Students Responses Interpretation Frequency
Percentage (%) Always Very Good 63 24.90 Often Good 83 32.81 Seldom Fair 94 37.15 Never Poor 13
5.14 Total 253 100 Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 128 9 It
revealed that out of 253 students, 37.15% or 94 of them, 32.18% or 83 students, 24.90% or 63 and
5.14% or 13 students had fair, good, very good and poor practices in recycling waste materials,
respectively. This implies that most of the students do not practice solid waste management in terms of
recycling regularly. Practices on solid waste management in terms of disposal Table 11 presents the
students’ practice on solid waste management in terms of disposal. Table 11 Practice on Solid Waste
Management in Terms of Disposal of the Students Solid Waste Management Practices Never Seldom
Often Always GWA Interpretation DISPOSAL 1. I throw and left my garbage anywhere. 51 85 42 75 2.44
Fair 2. I burn waste materials. 42 71 84 56 2.39 Fair 3. I throw waste materials in common open dumps.
60 73 96 24 2.67 Good 4. I dispose biodegradable wastes into a compost pit. 63 69 102 19 2.30 Fair 5. I
dispose hazardous/toxic/special wastes such as laboratory leftover (chemicals) or electronic waste in
any garbage container. 38 59 90 66 2.27 Fair Weighted Mean 2.42 Fair As shown in the table, the highest
average weighted value of 2.67 fell on item 3 stated, “I throw waste materials in common open dumps”,
interpreted as “Good”. The least weighted average of 2.27 fell item 5, “I dispose hazardous/toxic/special
wastes such as laboratory left-over (chemicals) or electronic waste in any garbage container”,
interpreted as “Fair”. The weighted mean was 2.42 interpreted as “Fair”. This means that the students
have slightly practice proper disposal of garbage. They know that throwing waste materials in common
open dumps is not good but they sometimes practice disposing hazardous/toxic/special wastes in any
garbage container. Table 12 presents the summary of assessment on the students’ practices on solid
waste management in terms of disposal. Table 12 Summary Table in the Practices on Solid waste
Management of the Students in Terms of Disposal Responses Interpretation Frequency Percentage (%)
Always Very Good 46 18.18 Often Good 66 26.09 Seldom Fair 125 49.41 Never Poor 16 6.32 Total 253
100 The table revealed that out of 253 students, 49.41% or 125 of them had fair practices on proper
disposal, 29.09% or 66 students had good practices, 18.18% or 46 of them had very good practices and
6.32% or 16 students had practiced proper disposal poorly. This implies that most of the students
moderately practice proper disposal. Significance of the Relationship between the Awareness of the
Students and Their Practices on Solid Waste Management Table 13 reveals the summary data about the
significance of the relationship between the awareness of the students and their practices on solid
waste management. Table 13 Summary Table on the Significance of the Relationship between the
Awareness of the Students and their Practices on Solid Waste Management Practices on Solid Waste
Management X 2 df Probability CV Decision Segregation 11.65 4 0.05 9.488 Rejected Reduce 14.88 4
0.05 9.488 Rejected Reuse 14.83 4 0.05 9.488 Rejected Recycle 12.03 4 0.05 9.488 Rejected Disposal
9.14 4 0.05 9.488 Accepted Ho : There is no significant relationship between the level of awareness of
the students and their practices on solid waste management The computed chi-square value of 11.65
was greater than the critical value of 9.488 at 0.05 level of probability with 4 degrees of freedom. Hence,
the null hypothesis was rejected. This implies that there is a significant relationship between the level of
awareness of the students and their practices in terms of segregation. It signifies that if students know
very well about solid waste management, practically they can segregate waste according to
compostable, recyclable, non-recyclable and special waste. As seen in the table, the obtained chi-square
value of 14.88 was greater than the critical value of 9.488 at 0.05 level of probability with 4 degrees of
freedom. Hence, the null hypothesis was rejected. This implies that there is a significant relationship
between the level of awareness of the students and their practices in terms of reduce. This means that if
the students have good background knowledge on solid waste management, there is a possibility that
they can reduce garbage accordingly. As observed in the table, the obtained chisquare value of 14.83
was greater than the critical value of 9.488 at 0.05 level of probability with 4 degrees of freedom. Hence,
the null hypothesis was Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 128 10
rejected. This implies that there is a significant relationship between the level of awareness of the
students and their practices in terms of reuse. This denotes that if students are aware on solid waste
management, they can identify and save reusable materials out of wastes. As manifested in the table,
the obtained chisquare value of 12.03 was greater than the critical value of 9.488 at 0.05 level of
probability with 4 degrees of freedom. Hence, the null hypothesis was rejected. This implies that there is
a significant relationship between the level of awareness of the students and their practices in terms of
recycle. This implies that if students are aware on solid waste management, they can recycle things out
of waste materials. The computed chi-square value of 9.14 was less than the critical value of 9.488 at
0.05 level of probability with 4 degrees of freedom. Hence, the null hypothesis was accepted. This
implies that there is no significant relationship between the level of awareness of the students and their
practices in terms of recycle. This conveys that students know about solid waste management but not
able to internalize and practice proper disposal.

IV. CONCLUSION
This study disclosed the following as its findings: The awareness of the college students was high. Most
of them were fully aware in the identification of biodegradable from non-biodegradable and only few of
them were knowledgeable on Republic Act 9003. The students had good practices on solid waste
management in terms of segregation, reduce and reuse and they had fair practices on recycling and
proper disposal. The awareness of the students had no influence to their practices on solid waste
management in terms of disposal while the practices of the students in terms of segregation, reduce,
reuse and recycle had significant relationship of their awareness on solid waste management. On the
basis of the findings of the study, the following conclusions are drawn: The college students of MSU-
MSAT are knowledgeable and mindful on solid waste management. These students have an acceptable
habit in segregating, reducing and reusing waste materials while they fall short in recycling and
disposing garbage. The awareness on solid waste management of the students does not affect their
practices in terms of disposal however their practices in terms of segregation, reduce, reuse and recycle
influence their awareness on solid waste management. The researcher in her desire to find meaning to
the effort of this study, submits the following recommendations for possible implications: MSUMSAT
should conduct trainings and seminars regularly about Solid Waste Management and allow the students
as participants to provide them enough information about it. The Coordinator of Solid Waste
Management Program should lead campaigns and give more information about proper practices in
segregation, reducing and reusing waste materials in order for the students to have a very good habit on
these practices. The Solid Waste Committee should be consistent in monitoring the students’ behavior
towards the program. The Supreme Student Council should purchase more trash bins and put them on
conspicuous areas like in the side of the pathways or in every covered shade where the students could
easily dispose their garbage properly. The Supreme Student Council should assist the Committee in the
monitoring of the program. Teachers should put more emphasis in disseminating information about the
importance of the Solid Waste Management program. Students should maintain appreciable practices
on Solid Waste Management by attending seminars and orientations. Students should internalize the
program and impart their knowledge to others by making themselves responsible of doing it regularly.
The school administration should have information drive/campaign on Solid Waste Management every
General Orientation Programs, Convocation Programs and in Homeroom classes to ensure full
awareness on the wise disposal of garbage. The Supreme Student Council (SSC) or school student body
should have annual plan of action for sustaining Solid Waste Management.

REFERENCES
[1] Abolucion, D. M. T. 2012. Awareness on Solid Waste Management among the Residents of Dalipuga,
Iligan City. Undrgraduate Thesis. Mindanao State University – Iligan Istitute of Technology. [2] Ambayic,
A. S. 2014. Household Practices on Solid Waste Management. Undergraduate Thesis. Mindanao State
University - Maigo School of Arts and Trades. [3] Aquino, A. P. 2013. Ecological Solid Waste Management
Act: Environmental Protection through Proper Solid Waste Practices. Retrieved on January 16, 2016,
from http://ap.fftc.agnet.org/ ap_db.php?id=153&print=1. [4] Cahoy, A. Z. 2013. Level of Awareness and
Practices on Solid Waste Management among Students in Iligan National High School, Iligan City.
Undergraduate Thesis. Mindanao State University –IliganInstitute of Technology. March, 2013. [5]
Christense, T. H. 2011. Solid Waste Technology and Management. United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons,
Ltd. [6] Elloso, R. O. 2013. The Perennial Problem of Garbage. Article, Manila Bulletin. Retrieved on April
6, 2016, from http://www.mb.com.ph/the-perennialproblem-of-garbage/. [7] Griffiths, M. 2010. How to
Reduce, Reuse and Recycle Waste in Schools. Retrieved on April 6, 2016, from
http://www.ijesd.org/papers/268-CD0082.pdf. [8] Magante, G. L. M. 2013. The Disaster of
NonCompliance to Solid Waste Management Act in the Philippines. Retrieved on January 16, 2016, from
http://www.ndcp.edu.ph/publications/12% 20MAGANTE%20Solid%20Waste%20Management.p df. [9]
Marello, M., and Helwege, A. 2014. Solid Waste Management and Social Inclusion of Waste Pickers:
Opportunities and Challenges. Retrieved on April 6, 2016, from http://www.bu.edu/pard
 An Air Quality Risk Evaluation Method for Metro Manila using Spatial
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Maria Lorna N. Siador1 and Michael Angelo B. Promentilla* 1Chemical Engineering Department, De La
Salle University *Corresponding Author: michael.promentilla@dlsu.edu.ph
March 7-9, 2017

Abstract:
Air pollution and health has been jointly studied for years and their correlation have been proven in the
literature. In this regard, the Philippine government is regularly quantifying air quality pollutants for
legislation and policy making. Currently, the reported values are only in terms of concentration and
pollutant loading. To establish a better model for health risk, two parameters are combined – hazard
and exposure indices. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique coupled with Geographic
Information System (GIS) was used to derive the composite score for the risk index. The hazard index
evaluated the mitigating strategies of the government in terms of source (mobile, stationary, and area
sources) and pollutant loading (SOx, NOx, and PM). The 450 policy scenario projected emission values
and was used as reference value for hazard index. A value for exposure index was achieved by
considering the location sensitivity, population density, and population sensitivity. Risk matrix was used
to combine the indices and this model was applied to cities of Metro Manila.

Key Words: air pollution risk; hazard index; exposure index; AHP; GIS

INTRODUCTION

1.1. Air Pollution and Health

The World Health Organization stated that most cities worldwide exceeded the concentration limit set
by international standards (WHO, 2014). A good indicator of high concentration of particulates in an
area would be the decreased visibility of the skyline and may even be observed by the naked eye.
Unfortunately, this unsightly view is also common in the Metro Manila skyline. Global health statistics
had supported the notion that air pollutants and minute particles were detrimental to human health,
affirming that majority of the leading diseases causing death were respiratory-related. The Philippines
had not been an exception and according to Philippine Health Statistics (DOH, 2010), the primary causes
of morbidity and mortality in 2010 were mostly respiratory infections (i.e. acute respiratory infection,
acute lower respiratory tract infection, pneumonia, and bronchitis). These diseases were eventually
consistent throughout the regions. Health statistics had also shown that some citizens (i.e. infants, lower
age group, and old age) were more vulnerable to unhealthy levels of air pollutants compared to others,
thus, more prone to respiratory infections. Quantification of air pollutants had been one of the main
targets of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), specifically the Environmental
Management Bureau (EMB). For awareness of the whole community, public access to current real-time
air quality monitoring of Metro Manila was provided Presented at the DLSU Research Congress 2016 De
La Salle University, Manila, Philippines March 7-9, 2016 through a website (EMB, 2016) and these
estimates were included in the daily local news. National status reports, as required by the Clean Air Act
of 1999 (DENR, 2000), were also released every three years for an extensive inventory of emission count
and some evaluations on promulgated policies. The Bureau trusts that knowing the air quality level of an
area would promote public awareness and stimulus to the community, organizations, and local
government units to resolve the underlying air pollution problems through legislation and policy making.
To extend this monitoring strategy approach, the objectives of this study include: first, to derive a
composite score for the health risk index of an area by considering hazard and exposure indices and
using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS),
second, to implement this method in determining the risk levels of cities in Metro Manila; and lastly, to
be able to assist in establishing priorities of stakeholders in deciding strategic plans for air pollution
mitigation.

6. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) Two analytical
tools were used in the proposed model for air quality health risk – Analytical Hierarchy
Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS). AHP is a multi-criteria decision
analysis (MCDA) tool that enables the decision maker to develop a certain hierarchy of
alternatives or factors according to priority or importance. It was designed by Saaty (2008)
to cope with both the subjective and qualitative attributes of a given problem, deriving
weights using pairwise comparisons. Through a survey, the decision maker or stakeholder
decides a score using fundamental scale on how dominant an element is to another. The
priority vector or Eigen values that defines the relative preferences can then be obtained
through Eigen vector method. Several studies were already made using AHP to describe the
risk or vulnerability of certain areas to air pollutants present in the atmosphere and this
study was inspired by the work of Khan and Sadiq (2005). In their case, they combined
hazard (concentration of air pollutants) and exposure (population density, location, and
population sensitivity) parameters. Definition of a 5-tuple fuzzy set was able to determine
the risk levels as very low, low, medium, high, and very high. Essentially, this study was used
as guide but with modifications on the parameters which would be described in succeeding
sections. GIS, on the other hand, is basically a computer‐based tool used to collect, store,
manipulate, and display spatial reference information (Bunch, 2012). Processing and
manipulating geospatial data enhances the understanding of geographical measurements
and assists in data analysis. Some common GIS operations are statistics, query optimization,
and digitizing. It is also possible to provide a common ground for both the technical and
layperson by communicating the information spatially and visually since GIS is able to store
geographically large referenced data. Two parameters were evaluated using AHP and GIS:
hazard and exposure indices. Hazard index was estimated using the pollutant loading of
sulfur compounds (SOx), nitrogen compounds (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) per
source. Exposure index was assessed in terms of population sensitivity, population density,
and location sensitivity. 2.1. Hazard Index Fig. 1. Hazard index hierarchy tree To determine
the risk level, hazard and exposure indices was initially calculated separately. The hazard
index (fig. 1) measures the pollutant Hazard Index Mobile (0.516) SOx , NOx , PM Stationary
(0.403) SOx , NOx , PM Area (0.074) SOx , NOx , PM Presented at the DLSU Research
Congress 2016 De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines March 7-9, 2016 loading of three
criteria pollutants (SOx, NOx, and PM) and their sources (stationary, mobile, and area) as
decribed in Table 1. These pollutants are known to cause bronchoconstriction,
emyphysema, airway inflammation, aggravation of heart disease, and many more health
complications (USEPA, 2015). To represent, the priority preferences of the stakeholders,
values of Eigen vectors were included in fig. 1. It was expected that mobiles sources would
have the highest priority since the transport sector had been the major contributor to air
pollution according to the previous national air quality status reports from DENR (EMB,
2012). Detailed emission inventories had utilized factors to estimate the relationship from
source to recipient or activity and convert it to the obtained quantitative values. Table 1.
Definition of pollutant source (EMB, 2009) Mobile: any vehicle/machine propelled by or
through redox reactions used for conveyance or transportation (e.g. cars, UVs, trucks, and
buses) Stationary: any building or immobile structure, facility, or installation which emits or
may emit any air pollutant (e.g. electricity-generating plants) Area: relatively large areas of
specific activities that generate significant amounts of air pollutants (e.g. busy roads, hubs,
and construction sites) For comparison, the projected emission ceilings from the 450 policy
scenario was used as reference to estimate an area’s pollution level. 2.1.2. 450 Policy
Scenario In the World Energy Outlook (Cofala et al., 2012), energy pathways or scenarios
were characterized using the analytical tool IIASA GAINS model. The assumption was that in
the next 25 years, the 25 world regions (individual countries or groups with similar policies
and emission characteristics) would completely implement policy commitments in a
cautious manner to achieve the commitment to limit the global increase in average
temperature to 2°C. One of these pathways is the 450 policy scenario. The 450 policy
requires long-term stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at
below 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq), thus the name. In
order to achieve this goal, further policy commitments was assumed to be made. Energy
system measures (i.e. reduction of fossil fuel use) aimed at reduction of CO2 emissions
cause an important decrease of emissions of air pollutants, i.e. SOx, NOx, and PM. At any
level, local air pollutants increase respiratory diseases and shorten life expectancy. This
pathway or scenario was chosen as basis because of assumption of a strong policy
commitment and a proposed definite target. Being part of ASEAN9 region (India not
included because of high emission contribution), the scenario had projected ceiling values
(Table 2) for SOx, NOx, and PM emissions. Table 2. Projected values of 450 policy scenario
Pollutant SOx NOx PM Ceiling (tons/yr) 1349000 2447000 1893000 2.2. Exposure Index Fig.
2. Exposure index hierarchy tree Basis of this hierarchy were adapted from the works of
Khan and Sadiq (2005 ) and Nadal (2011). AHP was applied in the second level to assess
preference among the exposure parameters: location sensitivity, population density, and
population sensitivity. Population density is simply the number of people per land area.
Higher population densities pose higher risk of exposure. Population sensitivity refers to the
percent of sensitive population, that is, children below 14 years old and adult that are 75
years and older, vulnerable to air pollution diseases. Age range was chosen based on data
available from the National Statistics Office (DOH, 2010). However, location sensitivity
(Table 3) needed to utilize GIS to identify areas for prioritization based on land use (e.g. very
low to very high residential area, open space, commercial, transportation, industrial, etc.). It
pertains to areas that holds sensitive population. Exposure Index Population Density (0.267)
Population Sensitivity (0.125) Location Sensitivity (0.571) Presented at the DLSU Research
Congress 2016 De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines March 7-9, 2016 Each land use
could be clearly identified on the spatial data provided by NAMRIA (2008) and were further
classified into categories according to sensitivity. Using GIS, attribute operations were
performed to compute for the areas and percent distribution per land use in each class per
city. These were used as input values to determine location sensitivity. Table 3. Location
sensitivity classification Land Use Class Areas Included 1 Open space, agricultural land,
grassland, forest land, water-related 2 Industrial, transport and service facility 3 Park &
recreational, government and quasi-public, commercial and business, very low and low
residential, military 4 Medium residential, Informal settlers, Educational & cultural, Religious
& cemetery 5 Health and welfare, very high and high residential Table 4. Risk matrix Hazard
Exposure Low (0.00-0.69) Medium (0.69-0.85) High (0.85-1.00) Low (0.00- 10.16) Good Fair
Unhealthy Medium (10.16- 20.32) Fair Unhealthy Very Unhealthy High (20.32- 30.48)
Unhealthy Very Unhealthy Emergency RISK LEVEL OF METRO MANILA To evaluate the risk
 level of Metro Manila cities, pollutant loading in tons per year and per source for every city
from DENR (EMB, 2014), population and health statistics from Philippine Statistics Office
(DOH, 2010), and geospatial data from NAMRIA (2008) were measured. Hazard and
exposure indices, as explained above, were acquired using AHP and GIS techniques. Air
quality experts from the government were asked to act as stakeholders for weighing the
parameters. Since risk in the study is a function of two parameters, a cross matrix from Khan
and Sadiq (2005) was adapted and the cities were conveniently classified into good, fair,
unhealthy, very unhealthy, and emergency levels (Table 4). Finally, the tabulated results
were graphically presented with a risk map. Table 5. Metro Manila risk levels City Hazard
Index Exposure Index Risk Level Pateros Low Low Good Navotas Low Low Good Paranaque
Low Low Good Makati Low Low Good Malabon Low Low Good San Juan Low Medium Fair
Las Pinas Low Medium Fair Taguig Low Medium Fair Mandaluyong Low Medium Fair
Muntinlupa Medium Low Fair Manila Low High Unhealthy Caloocan City Low High Unhealthy
Valenzuela High Low Unhealthy Marikina Medium Medium Unhealthy Pasig High Medium
Very Unhealthy Pasay High Medium Very Unhealthy Quezon High Medium Very Unhealthy
Fig. 3. Metro Manila risk level map Presented at the DLSU Research Congress 2016 De La
Salle University, Manila, Philippines March 7-9, 2016 As an effective communication tool,
the risk map revealed which cities should have further consideration in their air pollution
strategies. Cities of Quezon, Pasay, and Pasig had the highest risk level in Metro Manila.
Their hazard indices were also considered high. Normally stakeholders could criticize that
this was the result of high concentration of air pollutants and that a plan for mitigation (i.e.
use of biofuels, use of green infrastructure, control of dust from construction, regulation of
effluents) would suffice. But due to the exposure parameters considered, other angles of
analysis were actually introduced in the equation. A sample observation could be done in
Manila with its land use information (fig. 4). Table 3 defines the land use classes, categorized
with increasing location sensitivity as class went higher. Since classes 3,4, and 5 were mainly
composed of residential areas and other equally sensitive spots, Manila had obtained a high
exposure index. Policies could target these areas to control air pollution as they could be
classified as well as area sources. Another approach would be through provision of strategic
direction for sustainable land use. This might address the population density issues. Not only
the high density areas pose higher risks but also the lack of open space in Metro Manila in
general. It would be inevitable that aligning programs with other sectors could develop
collaboration among stakeholders and enhance compatibility of action plans. Fig. 4. Land
use classification of Manila The risk model assumed that each pollutant directly contributed
independently per source to health risk and chemical interactions was insignificant. Hazard
index based on pollutant loading was set to be not differential with respect to height and
not affected by topographic patterns. These should be noted if concentrations were used,
therefore, using the loads instead measured from stack testing enabled the accounting for
the total amount or weight of emissions. Consequentially, the simplified operations
primarily emphasized and centered on the prioritization preferences of stakeholders – air
quality experts which were government officials participating directly in decision-making of
policies and regulations. It would be safe to say that based on the government’s current
priority targets in air pollution, this was the resulting risk level of each area.

7. CONCLUSIONS Various studies had been done to prove the relationship between air
pollution and health. Current status reports focus only on the emission amount of air
pollutants in tons per year. Using the proposed model, risk level of each city was quantified
through composite score of hazard and exposure indices, and classified into a descriptive
 manner, (i.e. good, fair, unhealthy, very unhealthy, and emergency). Aside from the
pollutant hazard, human or social parameters were also highlighted as the exposure index
and captured its uncertainty factors in relation to air pollution. This provided a reliable
representation of air pollution risk. AHP was able to incorporate the subjective preference
of the government in the analysis of both hazard and exposure indices and GIS supported
these findings. The model could be a new tool to support the assessments done by the
government and help decision makers and policymakers to decide on what regulations to
implement or improve. The study could be further improved if instead of cities, airshed
would be analyzed. Airsheds are parts of atmosphere that behaves in a coherent way with
respect to the dispersion of atmospheric emission (DENR, 2009). It would cover not only
Metro Manila but other regions as well. Because of the major limitation of the study,
another important improvement would be the completeness emission inventory of every
area and updated statistics and spatial data. Not all regions are able to compile emissions to
achieve complete Presented at the DLSU Research Congress 2016 De La Salle University,
Manila, Philippines March 7-9, 2016 coverage of all sources due to limitations of resources.
5. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge Engr. Cesar Siador Jr.,
director of EMB-DENR Region II and Engr. Jean Rosete, chief of Air Quality Management
Section EMB-DENR, for being stakeholders and for providing necessary documents, NAMRIA
for the shapefile used in GIS, and PHS-DOH for the urgent replies for statistic inquiries.

REFERENCES

Bunch, M., Kumaran T., & Joseph, R. (2012). Using geographic information systems (GIS) for
spatial planning and environmental management in India: Critical considerations [Electronic
Version]. International Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 2, 40-54. Cofala, J., Bertok, I.,
Borken-Kleefeld, J., Heyes, C., Klimont, Z., Rafaj, P., Sander, R., Schopp, W., and Amann, M.
(2012, June 2). Emissions of air pollutants for the World Energy Outlook 2012 energy scenarios.
Final report submitted to International Energy Agency. Retrieved December 2, 2014, from
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weo
website/energymodel/documentation/IIASA_W EO2012_air_pollution.pdf DENR (2000).
Implementing rules and regulations for RA 8749. DENR Administrative Order No. 2000-81, Series
of 2000. Retrieved December 2, 2014 from DENR. DOH (2010). The 2010 Philippine health
statistics. Status. Report submitted to Philippine Statistics Authority. Retrieved December 1,
2014, from http://www.doh.gov.ph/sites/default/files/public
ations/PHS2010_March13.compressed.pdf EMB (2009). National air quality status report 2005-
2007. National publication of EMB-DENR. Retrieved December 2, 2014 from DENR. EMB (2012).
National air quality status report 2010-2011. National publication of EMB-DENR. Retrieved
December 2, 2014 from DENR. EMB (2014). NCR emission inventory base year 2012. Raw data
for the publication of national status report 2015. Retrieved December 2, 2014, from Air Quality
Management Bureau, DENR. EMB (2016). Air quality monitoring data. Daily monitoring of
particulate matter of National Capital Region. Retrieved February 8, 2016, from
http://airquality-embdenr.com Khan, F.I. and Sadiq, R. (2005). Risk-based prioritization of air
pollution monitoring using fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique [Electronic version].
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 105, 261-283. Nadal, M., Cadiach, O., Kumar, V.,
Poblet, P., Mari, M., Schuhmacher, M., and Domingo, J. (2011). Health risk map of a
petrochemical complex through GIS-fuzzy integration of air pollution monitoring data [Electronic
version]. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 17:4, 873-891. NAMRIA (2008). Land use
classification shapefile. Raw spatial data sent as email attachment. Retrieved December 1, 2014,
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version]. International Journal of Services Sciences, 1, 83-98. USEPA (2015, September 18). Six
common air pollutants. Article. Retrieved February 8, 2016, from
http://www3.epa.gov/airquality/urbanair WHO (2014, May 7). Air quality deteriorating in many
of the world's cities. World Health Organization. News release. Retrieved December 1, 2014,
from http://www.who.int/me

Value of Clean Water Resources: Estimating the Water Quality Improvement in Metro Manila,
Philippines
Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov
Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, United Nations University, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan;
jalilov@unu.edu
Received: 20 November 2017;
Accepted: 20 December 2017; Published: 22 December 2017

Abstract:
While having many positive impacts, a tremendous economic performance and rapid industrial
expansion over the last decades in the Philippines has had negative effects that have resulted in
unfavorable hydrological and ecological changes in most urban river systems and has created
environmental problems. Usually, these effects would not be part of a systematic assessment of urban
water benefits. To address the issue, this study investigates the relationship between poor water quality
and resident’s willingness to pay (WTP) for improved water quality in Metro Manila. By employing a
contingent valuation method (CVM), this paper estimates the benefits of the provision of clean water
quality (swimmable and fishable) in waterbodies of Metro Manila for its residents. Face-to-face
interviews were completed with 240 randomly selected residents. Residents expressed a mean WTP of
PHP102.44 (USD2.03) for a swimmable water quality (good quality) and a mean WTP of PHP102.39
(USD2.03) for fishable water quality (moderate quality). The aggregation of this mean willingness-to-pay
value amounted to annual economic benefits from PHP9443 billion to PHP9447 billion (approx. USD190
million) per year for all taxpayers in Metro Manila. As expected, these estimates could inform local
decision-makers about the benefits of future policy interventions aimed at improving the quality of
waterbodies in Metro Manila.

Keywords: CVM; WTP; CAPI; water quality; Metro Manila; Philippines

1. Introduction
1.1. Water Quality Issues

The water quality in rivers, streams, lakes, and canals in many Southeast Asian countries has been
deteriorating because of rapid population growth, urbanization, and industrialization, especially in
densely populated urban areas [1]. The main source for water pollution in urban waterbodies is the
unregulated discharge of domestic and industrial wastewater. This has a detrimental effect on human
health, recreational opportunities, and environment, and translates into economic costs. According to
Philippines Environment Monitor, annual costs of the adverse impact of water pollution on the economy
estimated PHP67 billion (more than USD1.3 Billion) [2]. The situation is particularly alarming in Metro
Manila, where waterbodies are heavily polluted. Water quality measurements conducted by monitoring
stations at various locations along the rivers have indicated that most of them are biologically dead [3].
The term “biologically dead” refers to the absence mainly of dissolved oxygen (DO) in a waterbody. A
waterbody is considered biologically dead when it has a zero DO level (meaning it has undergone
complete “eutrophication”). The government of Metro Manila adopted measures to improve water
quality in the city’s waterbodies, among them building new sewage treatment facilities, expanding
sewerage infrastructure, and relocating informal settlers along the riverbanks. Recently, the government
started to use such economic instruments as pollution fines and environmental taxes [1]. While the
city’s water managers are aware of the costs of such interventions that are needed to restore good
water quality, in many cases they lack Resources 2018, 7, 1; doi:10.3390/resources7010001
www.mdpi.com/journal/resources Resources 2018, 7, 1 2 of 15 information about the monetary value
of water quality improvement in the city’s waterbodies. Such information could be important in urban
planning and cost-benefit analysis of future water-related infrastructural projects. The information is
obtained through quantitative assessment of urban water benefits and is a necessary component for
sustainable urban planning and development. The most widely used economic methods for the
monetary estimation of these benefits are the contingent valuation method (CVM) and the hedonic
pricing method (HPM). Assessments of recreation benefits are widely done through the use of the travel
cost method (TCM); however, it would be challenging to apply this method in an urban context due to
the fact that there are often limited travel expenses involved in assessing those areas. 1.2. Study Area
and the Issue The river system in Metro Manila is vast and extends to 27 km of the Pasig River, which
traverses from Manila Bay in the west to Laguna Lake in the east, its four main tributaries (the San Juan
River, the Marikina River, the Napindan River, and the Pateros-Taguig River), as well as 43 minor
tributaries [3] (Figure 1). Across the National Capital Region (NCR), household waste, effluents, and
industrial waste are routinely dumped into waterbodies and pollute aquatic habitats [4]. About 65–70%
of pollution is caused by residential sewage, with the rest originating from industry, such as tanneries,
textile mills, food processing plants, distilleries, and chemical and metal plants, as well as from solid
waste dumped directly into the rivers [4]. In addition to the industries that contaminate waterbodies
through toxic industrial chemicals, the lack of household sewerage systems has also contributed to the
low quality of water in many parts of Metro Manila. Increasing urban populations are amplifying the
problem, forcing governments to more effectively manage the ever-increasing sources of wastewater
and to search for ways to solve the issue. The annual economic losses from water pollution are high and
include losses in health, fisheries production, and tourism. The annual economic impact of poor
sanitation in the Philippines, which is one of main sources of pollution in urban waterbodies, is
approximately USD1.4 billion according to the World Bank report [5]. Large parts of Metro Manila’s
population have inadequate access to fresh water due to a combination of factors such as degraded
water quality because of a lack of regulation, depleted water resources due to overuse, and inefficient
infrastructure as a result of poor governance. While drinking water is supplied to 90% of the Metro
Manila population, only about 15% of households are connected to a sewerage system, with only one
half of these connections provided with sewage treatment. About 85% have septic tanks, which are
often poorly constructed. For sewage, most residents rely on open drains to convey sewage from their
septic tanks. Lack of sanitation facilities, coupled with potential human contact with raw sewage by the
population, pose an increased health risk. There is a high incidence of waterborne diseases such as
diarrhea, typhoid, viral hepatitis, and cholera in the urban areas of Metro Manila [3]. Eventually, all
sewage discharge from the city waterways ends up in either Manila Bay or Laguna Lake. 1.3. Objective
The low appreciation for clean waterways in urban areas by planners is often based on narrowly defined
economic reasons. One basic problem is that land-use planning procedures do not include the
systematic assessment of urban water benefits. The costs of supplying clean water can be determined in
a relatively straightforward way, but the benefits are more difficult to estimate. This paper provides a
method of estimation of use value of improving surface water quality in Metro Manila waterbodies. In
doing so, this study adds to the developing literature on the benefits of water quality improvement in
the following ways: First, our contingent valuation scenario was designed to connect with the natural
state of future water quality, i.e., expected future water quality outcomes were that it would be
swimmable and fishable. Second, we used a Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) technique
in the CVM survey (described in Section 2.3. survey administration technique and data Resources 2018,
7, 1 3 of 15 collection). The resident’s average willingness to pay (WTP) and total economic value for
each water quality are estimated and reported. Resources 2017, 7, 1 3 of 16 Interviewing (CAPI)
technique in the CVM survey (described in Section 2.3. survey administration technique and data
collection).

Materials and Methods

2.1. Contingent Valuation Method The contingent valuation method (CVM) is the most frequently
applied method in the valuation of environmental assets [7–9]. The CVM represents one of the stated
preference techniques that are used by economists to assess a monetary value of nonmarket goods
such as water quality. CVM or Resources 2018, 7, 1 4 of 15 conjoint analysis has an advantage over other
stated preference techniques, because it allows for the measurement of both the use values and nonuse
values of environmental good. The method bypasses the need to refer to market prices by explicitly
asking individuals to place monetary values upon environmental goods. The CVM provides a broader
way of assessing large numbers of amenities than other methods do, e.g., estimating the willingness to
pay for improved water quality that might be planned but has not yet been provided. CVM involves
creating a hypothetical market for a sample of respondents and asking their opinion on the values of
public environmental goods or services (e.g., WTP for a change in the supply of an environmental
resource) under specified contingencies [10,11]. Mail surveys and phone or face-to-face interviews are
usually used in survey administration. The respondents are asked what the maximum amount is that
they are willing to pay (WTP) towards the preservation or improvement of an environmental
good/asset. The researcher then estimates the monetary value of the asset by calculating the average
WTP of respondents and multiplying this by the total number of users of the environmental good. As the
questionnaire is the principal tool in CVM, designing a good questionnaire is critically important.
Generally, CVM survey consists of three parts: (1) explanation of the good being valued and the
hypothetical situation that the respondent has to confront/imagine; (2) question of willingness to pay
for the environmental good; and (3) follow-up questions related to general attitudes towards the good
under consideration and the socio-economic characteristics of the respondent. The recent cases of CVM
application in estimating water quality improvements were well discussed and described in the
literature, (e.g., [12–15]).

2.2. Survey Design

A survey-based methodology built on eliciting willingness to pay for the good water quality of Metro
Manila waterbodies was created. As no actual market exists for such an environmental good,
researchers needed to create a hypothetical market, and respondents were requested to reveal the
value they place on the proposed change in the environmental service. After the several workshops with
stakeholders in Metro Manila and meetings with government agencies in charge of the water quality
issues in the city, the hypothetical scenario of water quality improvement was identified. The study
examined valuation of respondents to a proposed Surface Water Quality Improvement Program in
Metro Manila. The Program consists of two components: (1) building a new wastewater treatment
plants; and (2) expansion of Metro Manila’s existing sewerage system. The employed scenario is
presented in Appendix A. Full questionnaire is available from the author upon request. The
questionnaire was translated into Tagalog language, the most commonly spoken language in the
megacity. The future expected water quality standards in the framework used a reference based on
Environmental Management Bureau (EMB) established thresholds for inland surface waterbodies in the
Philippines (Table 1). According to the assumption made in our survey and based on observation of the
actual quality of the city’s waterbodies, the current quality of NCR waterbodies was described as Class D.
Certainly, it will take some time until the current water quality in waterbodies of Metro Manila reaches
Class C (“acceptable for fishery and boating”) and then Class B (“acceptable for bathing and swimming”);
therefore, the respondents were informed that changes will occur gradually depending on building
wastewater treatment plants and, most importantly, expansion of the existing sewerage system (which
currently covers 15% of the city). It is difficult to find a clear way of conveying complex scientific
information to those without a scientific background. In addition to verbal explanation during the
conversation, surveyors used pictures and key attributes that would communicate the consequences of
the levels of water quality in a way that would be understandable to general public. The selected
pictures and attributes represent the ecosystem goods and services, the end point from which people
derive relevant value and wellbeing. Resources 2018, 7, 1 5 of 15 Table 1. Water quality classification of
inland surface waterbodies in the Philippines. Classification Description Class AA Public Water Supply
Class I. Intended primarily for waters having watersheds, which are uninhabited and otherwise
protected, and which require only approved disinfection to meet the Philippine National Standards for
Drinking Water (PNSDW) Class A Public Water Supply Class II. For sources of water supply that will
require complete treatment (coagulation, sedimentation, filtration, and disinfection) to meet the
PNSDW Class B Recreational Water Class I. For primary contact recreation such as bathing, swimming,
skin diving, etc. (particularly those designated for tourism purposes) Class C (1) Fishery Water for the
propagation and growth of fish and other aquatic resources (2) Recreational Water Class II (boating,
etc.) (3) Industrial Water Supply Class I (for manufacturing processes after treatment) Class D (1) For
agriculture, irrigation, livestock watering, etc. (2) Industrial Water Supply Class II (e.g., cooling, etc.) (3)
Other inland waters, by their quality, belong to this classification Source: [16]. The survey questionnaire
is designed in three separate parts. The first part consists of awareness and behavioral questions on the
current quality of waterbodies, causes of water pollution, visits to waterbodies, purpose of the visits,
and effects of current water quality on people’s health and livelihood. The second part presents the
CVM scenario and the WTP question. The following open-ended WTP question was chosen—How much
would you be willing to pay as a monthly fee per household in addition to the monthly utility bill to have
water quality acceptable for swimming/fishing? (Keep in mind that existing water quality is defined as
bad water quality). The final part reveals the socio-economic data of the respondent and their
household. 2.3. Survey Administration Technique and Data Collection As it was mentioned earlier,
traditionally mail surveys and phone or face-to-face interviews are used in survey administration. Each
of these survey techniques has its positive and negative sides. In the context of a developing country,
the first two methods are difficult to implement in terms of coverage (mail and landline phone) and
speed of the service (mail). Among the third technique of face-to-face interviewing up until recent
times, majority of surveys were done by using traditional paper-and-pencil interview (PAPI) technique.
However, with the rapid development of computer, data collection, and processing technologies, the
internet coverage new survey method has been gaining popularity. This is computer-assisted personal
interviewing (CAPI) technique, which is based on use of smartphones and tablets to collect the data and
send them directly to the central server (Figure 2). There are number of advantages that CAPI has over
PAPI. First, CAPI greatly reduces timing of data collection—there is no need to print, distribute, and
handle large amount of paper-based questionnaires. Second, CAPI improves data quality by possibility of
check and review of each interview (GPS location as well, Figure 3) in real-time mode. Third, it reduces
data entry costs. The free CAPI software “Survey Solutions” developed by the World Bank has been used
in this study [17]. During the two pretest surveys, both PAPI and CAPI methods of questionnaire
administration were used. Those pretest surveys proved our assumption that CAPI method allows faster
and more reliable data collection and administration. Special training session on CAPI protocol was held
for surveyors where they were trained in techniques of using smartphones and tablets for the survey
purposes. During the interview process, the administrator could check on real-time mode the location
(GPS) of ongoing surveys and how it was going in terms of respondents answers, and could produce
basic daily statistics. This greatly improved whole survey process and accelerated data processing. Local
surveyors were impressed by the capabilities of such an approach and expressed willingness to employ
CAPI in their future social surveys. Resources 2018, 7, 1 6 of 15 Resources 2017, 7, 1 6 of 16 The
developed questionnaire was pretested before starting the main survey; 40 respondents in two cities,
Quezon and Manila, were chosen for this exercise. The objective of the task was to check whether the
questionnaire was logical and consistent, and if the WTP questions were understood correctly. The main
survey involved a total of 240 personal interviews that were conducted in the month of June 2016 in
Metro Manila. We could not secure voters’ list from the local government and did not want to use
telephone book to compile sampling for the survey, as it does not cover the entire area of the megacity.
Facing this challenge, the random sampling based on the distance of household location to the nearest
waterbody was chosen. There are two classifications: (1) walking distance to the river, which assumes
that within 30 min one can reach the Pasig River, and (2) need to drive or take public transportation to
enjoy the river. Figures 3 and 4 show interview locations in some target areas in Metro Manila. (a) (b) (c)
(d) Figure 2. Survey Solutions interface on smartphone view. There are four sections: (a) respondent’s
profile (awareness and behavioral questions); (b) WTP section; (c) respondent’s background data; and
(d) location, time, and comments from a respondent. Resources 2018, 7, 1 7 of 15 Resources 2017, 7, 1 7
of 16 Figure 2. Survey Solutions interface on smartphone view. There are four sections: (a) respondent’s
profile (awareness and behavioral questions); (b) WTP section; (c) respondent’s background data; and
(d) location, time, and comments from a respondent. Figure 3. Interview GPS locations in Metro Manila.
Map does not represents all points due to the technical issues (device battery discharge, low GPS signal
in some areas) (“Survey Solutions” interface). SAS statistical package was used for the analysis. The
possible effect of socio-economic variables on WTP was analysed by linear regression and tobit models.
Theoretically, the tobit (censored regression) model was better to use to analyze the data, as the OLS
estimates could be biased (because the range of dependent variable is limited, WTP ≥ 0). The estimation
of the model is usually undertaken by maximum likelihood techniques [18,19]. 3. Results 3.1. Overview
There is clear interest in the improvements of the surface water quality in Manila waterbodies by those
who placed monetary value on the improvement—71% of the respondents (n = 170) indicated a
willingness to support the proposed Surface Water Quality Improvement Program in Metro Manila.
Among the 29% of the participants (n = 70) who voted against the proposed action plan, the most
common answers were “Do not want to place monetary value” and “Objected to way question was
presented”.
Results 3.1.

Overview There is clear interest in the improvements of the surface water quality in Manila waterbodies
by those who placed monetary value on the improvement—71% of the respondents (n = 170) indicated
a willingness to support the proposed Surface Water Quality Improvement Program in Metro Manila.
Among the 29% of the participants (n = 70) who voted against the proposed action plan, the most
common answers were “Do not want to place monetary value” and “Objected to way question was
presented”. These were considered as protest (zero) answers in addition to true WTP = 0 and excluded
from further analysis. The maximum WTP. The GPS location of each survey has also been transferred
into ArcGIS software (Figure 4). Due to proximity of surveys’ location and geographic scale, a number of
surveys could have been looked on as combined. Resources 2017, 7, 1 8 of 16 Socio-economic data of
respondents are given in Figure 5. As seen from the figure, socioeconomic backgrounds of the
respondents are representative. The employment status shows that most of the survey participants are
occupied with a full-time job (29%) or self-employed (28%). Only 9% of them are unemployed, and 17%
are non-working students. Most of the interviewed individuals are educated people—only 1% of
respondents had not attended any form of school. Figure 4. Interview locations in Metro Manila. The
vast majority of the survey participants (84%) have visited or seen the city’s river/lake/canal in the last
month. Among them 45% went regularly, 34% went a few times, 6% went once, and 15% preferred not
to answer this question. The majority of respondents (86%) answered that the water quality of the city’s
waterbodies is not sufficiently acceptable for recreational activities, 12% stated Resources 2018, 7, 1 9
of 15 otherwise (that water quality is sufficient), and 2% did not know whether or not the water quality
was sufficient. Socio-economic data of respondents are given in Figure 5. As seen from the figure, socio-
economic backgrounds of the respondents are representative. The employment status shows that most
of the survey participants are occupied with a full-time job (29%) or self-employed (28%). Only 9% of
them are unemployed, and 17% are non-working students. Most of the interviewed individuals are
educated people—only 1% of respondents had not attended any form of school. Resources 2017, 7, 1 9
of 16 Figure 4. Interview locations in Metro Manila. Figure 5. Socio-economic data of the sample. Male
respondents form the majority in our survey (51%), followed by female (43%) and unspecified (6%).
Middle-aged people dominate the survey (40%), while 36% were represented by the younger generation
(below 25 years old), and only 5% were elderly people (61 and over). More than a half of all respondents
were married, one-third were single, and only 6% were divorced or separated. Income levels vary widely
among survey participants. In fact, the Philippines has the highest Gini coefficient (inequality ratio)
among region countries, which means a greater rate of inequality compared to other Southeast Asian
countries. While 11% of respondents belong to the poorest part who live for USD2 a day (USD1 =
PHP47.03), 14% receive a monthly income of USD850 or higher. 3.2. Data Validation Figure 5. Socio-
economic data of the sample. Male respondents form the majority in our survey (51%), followed by
female (43%) and unspecified (6%). Middle-aged people dominate the survey (40%), while 36% were
represented by the younger generation (below 25 years old), and only 5% were elderly people (61 and
over). More than a half of all respondents were married, one-third were single, and only 6% were
divorced or separated. Income levels vary widely among survey participants. In fact, the Philippines has
the highest Gini coefficient (inequality ratio) among region countries, which means a greater rate of
inequality Resources 2018, 7, 1 10 of 15 compared to other Southeast Asian countries. While 11% of
respondents belong to the poorest part who live for USD2 a day (USD1 = PHP47.03), 14% receive a
monthly income of USD850 or higher. 3.2. Data Validation The data was tested and found to be
statistically representative of the country’s population. As the data was based on random sampling
there is need to validate obtained demographic data against available demographic data on the
Philippines’ population. This was done by comparing five demographic parameters—gender, age
distribution, household size, income, and education (Table 2). Comparison of demographic data given by
the 2011 Philippine Demographic Yearbook [20] indicated some differences: (1) household size—our is
higher that the country average 5.3 against 4.6; (2) gender ratio—our 46% females and 54% males
against 49% and 51% accordingly; (3) population structure—Philippines has relatively young population
and the median age of the country’s population is 23.4 years, which means that half of the household
population was younger than 23.4 years; age of majority of our respondents was in the interval of 26–
40; (4) Data on the level of education and poverty show some discrepancies. It should be noted that it is
quite challenging to match official demographic parameters in a small sample, especially when the study
cannot secure voters’ list or any other data source. While these minor precision errors hardly could have
changed or have impacted the final WTP estimates, only age structure discrepancy could have had some
effect, which will be discussed in subsequent section. Table 2. Comparison of survey data with overall
available statistics. Description Survey Statistics Philippines’ Statistics * Household size 5.3 4.6 Gender
Females—46% Females—49% Males—54% Males—51% Population structure Median in interval 26–40
Median—23.4 Education No school—1% No school—2% Grade school 1–8—7% Grade school 1–8—
11.7% Grade school 9–11—29% Grade school 9–11—19.1% Some school—29% Some school—54.4%
College graduate—32% College graduate—10.1% Postgraduate—2% Postgraduate—2.7% Income
Extreme poverty—11% Extreme poverty—5.7% Poverty level—14% Poverty level—16.5% * Source: [20].
3.3. WTP and Economic Value of Water Quality Improvement Again, majority of the respondents were
willing to pay for water quality improvement in the city’s waterbodies. The number of positive bids
reached 71%, which is a rather high number. A small share of the respondents (7%) stated their true
value as zero. The amount of protest responses was close to 20%. The main motives for true zero WTP
were either living far from the closest waterbody or economic reasons. The willingness to pay for
swimmable water quality (which is a higher water quality) ranged between zero and PHP1200
(USD25.52) per person per month, with the average rate for implementing the proposed program being
equal to PHP102.44 (USD2.17). The WTP for fishable water quality was between zero and PHP1000
(USD21.27) per month, with an average of PHP102.39 (USD2.17). Summary statistics for both WTP
values are presented in Table 3. Resources 2018, 7, 1 11 of 15 Table 3. Summary statistics of WTP
values. Variable N Min Max Mean StDev Pr > |t| Lower 95% CL for Mean Upper 95% CL for Mean
WTP_Swim 170 0 1200 102.44 156.39

5. Conclusions and Future Plans

Recent years have been marked by growing concerns about water pollution in urban waterbodies of fast
growing Southeastern Asian countries. Many countries have adopted water quality standards for surface
waterbodies and have strengthened pollution control and upgraded enforcement mechanisms.
However, the implementation of these measures imposes a real cost on society and government in
terms of cost of treatment, mitigation, and compensation. This paper focused on exploring the
economics of improved water quality, specifically in Metro Manila, Philippines. To evaluate the benefits
of water quality improvement, this paper has focused on presenting findings concerning individual
preferences of Metro Manila residents, expressed in terms of willingness to pay to achieve two different
water quality standards. Results from the contingent valuation study show positive financial support for
an action plan that would help to improve water quality in the city’s waterbodies. The evidence
presented suggests that WTP for swimmable water quality is PHP102.44 and WTP for fishable water
quality is PHP102.39. Based on these values, Metro Manila has potential total benefits of improved
water quality between PHP9443 billion to PHP9447 billion per year, which translate into USD190 million
per year. This estimation could help policy-makers in planning and promoting new and/or upgrading
existing wastewater treatment plants in the megacity. To prevent further Resources 2018, 7, 1 14 of 15
deterioration of Metro Manila’s waterbodies and improve the overall environmental situation in the
city, policy-makers should improve people’s understanding and awareness of the environmental issues
facing the area through school programs and public information campaigns. While this study is
informative about the potential for raising funds from the megacity’s residents, the results are merely
indicative. For policy planning purposes, it would be desirable and advisable to replicate the study with
larger samples in multiple destinations to better understand the drivers of demand for surface water
quality improvement in Metro Manila waterbodies and the feasibility of raising utility fees to achieve the
goal of clean water environment in the megacity. Acknowledgments: The author extends his gratitude to
the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) (Fellowship #P15764) and Low Carbon Urban
Water Environment Project of UNU-IAS for the provision of funding for this research. Conflicts of
Interest: The author declares no conflict of interest.

Appendix

A Scenario Presented in the Survey on Water Quality Improvement in Metro Manila, Philippines The
Metro Manila cities are considering a new program that will further improve the quality of water of the
city’s waterbodies. However, the cities do not have sufficient funds to undertake the planned programs.
Therefore, it is seeking private investments to collect necessary funds to implement the program. The
only way the water quality is improved in the cities is if you and others will pay. This will allow you (and
members of your family) to enjoy better quality water in the city’s waterbodies. If a majority of people
favor the new programs it will be paid for by increasing the amount each household, and business will
pay for their monthly water and sewer bill. If you do not currently receive a water and sewer bill (e.g.,
you rent your home or your house is on a septic system), you will receive a separate monthly bill for this
program. All of the funds collected will be used to implement and enforce the Surface Water Quality
Improvement Program in Metro Manila. The Program will consist of: • Building new wastewater
treatment plant • Expansion of existing city’s sewerage system Implementation of the Water Quality
Improvement Program in Metro Manila would start next year and be phased in over 10 years. By 2030
the city’s sewerage system will cover 80% of the city’s area, and planned wastewater treatment plants
will treat collected wastewater. This will allow not only the avoidance of pollution of the waterbodies,
but it will also keep good water quality in Manila Bay and Laguna Lake. The costs of the program will be
shared between households, businesses, and industry in proportion to their share of total sewerage
discharge. We now want to ask you a few questions about how much an improvement in water quality
is worth to you. To help you answer these questions, see the photo and descriptions associated with
that particular water quality, which are shown below.

References 1.

WEPA (Water Environment Partnership in Asia). 2017. Available online: http://wepa-

db.net/3rd/en/index. html (accessed on 14 June 2017). 2. World Bank. Philippines Environmental
Monitor. 2003. Available online: http://documents.worldbank.org/
curated/en/144581468776089600/pdf/282970PH0Environment0monitor.pdf (accessed on 14 June
2017). 3. Palanca-Tan, R. Knowledge, attitudes, and willingness to pay for domestic sewerage and
sanitation services: A contingent valuation survey in Metro Manila. In Proceedings of the International
Symposium on Southeast Asian Water Environment, Hanoi, Vietnam, 8–10 November 2012; Volume 10,
Part I.

Deforestation in the Philippines

This unpublished précis seeks to identify the conflicts that underlie deforestation in the Philippines and submits
that ways of reconciling conflicting interests must be found to foster the wise use of forest resources.

January 3, 2016

Introduction

1. Apart from their role in conserving the ecosystem and protecting the environment for sustainable
development, forests provide innumerable products of vital use and are a source of livelihood to a large
number of people. Thus, forestry sector activities significantly influence the level and pattern of
development.

2. Over the past three decades, due to improved methods of exploitation, processing, and transport,
growth of external markets and rapidly expanding populations, the depletion of forest resources has
intensified dramatically. Removals from forests have increased considerably and large areas have been
converted to non-forestry uses. The consequences of this excessive deforestation have been soil
erosion; desertification; sedimentation of water courses, lakes, and dams; alteration of local climates
through disruption of the energy balance and hydrological cycle; and massive extinction of plant and
animal species. It is also contended that deforestation leads to changes in the atmospheric oxygen and
carbon dioxide balance, which alter the albedo and accelerate the greenhouse effect.

3. Over the last few years, with an increasing understanding of, and concern about, the consequences
of destructive deforestation, the attention given to forests by multilateral institutions and governments
has shifted from production to conservation and management. Typically, however, the issue of
deforestation is approached from an environmental management perspective and prescriptions fail to
take account of, when they do not ignore, the environmental conflicts at hand.1

Forest Resources

4. Forests are among the Philippines' major resources but have suffered severe depletion as a result of
logging, ineffective reforestation, population pressure, and shifting cultivation. Reliable statistics on
forest cover before 1950 do not exist and discussion of forest cover and its decline usually focuses on
the post-1950 period.2 Philippine forest cover data suggests that up to 55 percent of the total land area
(300,000 square kilometers) were under primary forest cover in the early 1950s.3 Today, only about 6
million hectares (ha), or 20 percent of the total land area, remain under forest cover. Less than 1 million
ha consists of virgin forest. Forest resources are being rapidly depleted (by an average of about 120,000
ha per annum) and there is a real prospect of Philippine forests being virtually eliminated within the
next 20 years. Forest Policies 5. The government agency in charge of Philippine forests has changed its
name several times in the post-war period. The Bureau of Forestry became the Bureau of Forest
Development in 1973, which in turn became the Forest Management Bureau in 1987. Until the late
1970s, as the names of the government agency indicates, emphasis in the forestry sector was generally
1 These perspectives and prescriptions derive from increasing concern in industrial countries for
environmental and preservation considerations and the aesthetic qualities of forests. In developing
countries, where people are trying to achieve economic development, forests are frequently seen as a
source of food, raw material and capital. 2 Deforestation in the Philippines is not restricted to the
twentieth century. It is estimated that forest cover declined from about 90 percent of total land area at
the time of the first contact with the Spanish in 1571 to about 70 percent by 1900. The major causes are
believed to have been the steady increase in population and the spread of commercial crops (primarily
abaca, tobacco, and sugarcane). 3 The term primary forest denotes any original, virgin forest unmodified
by deleterious human activity. Secondary forest denotes the vegetation type that usually replaces
primary forest following its removal.

On the removal of growing stock. This resulted in excessive exploitation without regard to forest
protection and logging regulations. Starting in 1961, a surge in Japanese demand triggered a dramatic
increase in harvesting. Over the next 15 years, harvests averaged 8.8 million cubic meters, more than
twice pre-boom levels. Forest area under logging concessions nearly doubled, from 5.5 million ha in
1960 to 10.6 million ha in 1971, and forest products became the leading export commodity, reaching 33
percent of gross export values by 1969 (see Table 1). 6. Government policy in the 1980s was to phase
out exports of hardwood logs to stimulate the development of the local processing industry. Export bans
were imposed in 1982 and again in 1986 (this still remained in force as of 1993) and had the effect of
increasing exports of processed products. However, substantial quantities of logs are thought to be
illegally exported. In the late 1980s, illegal exports were estimated at $800 million annually,
approximately four times the officially recorded earnings from forest charges and export charges.
Overall output has been in decline since the early 1970s, reflecting the narrowing in the resource base
(see Table 2). 7. Government efforts at reforestation have been largely ineffectual. Under the Marcos
regime, replacement by new plantations was limited and averaged 58,000 ha a year over the period
1978–1986. The 1987–1992 development plan launched by the Aquino administration had a
reforestation target of 100,000 ha a year, with a total of 911,400 ha of logged-over land to be improved.
Reforestation averaged 96,000 ha over the period 1987–1990 but 120,000 ha a year is required merely
to balance deforestation.

The Benefits from Deforestation 8. The negative aspects of tropical deforestation are well known.
However, since deforestation continues, it is appropriate to discuss those aspects of deforestation that
are viewed in a positive light by some of the participants in the process. Some groups gain from
deforestation and, from the point of view of policy intervention, the perspective of these groups may be
of interest. 9. Different groups derive long-term benefits from deforestation. These groups include: (i)
the government, since pioneer settlement diverts attention from pressing social problems such as urban
crowding and overpopulation; (ii) commercial loggers (legal and illegal) and those allied with them
(politicians, the military, and government bureaucrats); (iii) people employed in the logging and wood-
processing industries; (iv) the national treasury, which derives foreign exchange earnings from forest
products; (v) commercial interests that use deforested lands to grow a product for the market; (vi)
commercial interests that speculate on land near roads and new settlements; (vii) local commercial
businesses that benefit from frontier settlement, such as banks and retailers; (viii) commercial interests
that buy and sell charcoal or fuelwood; (ix) urban consumers of charcoal and fuelwood who pay a price
that does not reflect the externalities of deforestation; (x) multinational corporations involved in the
trade of tropical products; and (xi) consumers in developed countries, who gain because the prices of
tropical products do not internalize the costs of deforestation. 10. On the other hand, migrant farmers
and traditional shifting cultivators benefit from the removal of forest cover because it enables them to
farm for several years. It must be noted, however, that in most cases these benefits are short-lived
because the clearance process must be repeated elsewhere within two or three years as a result of
insect plagues, weeds, and soil impoverishment. 4 11. In short, it must be recognized that a significant
characteristic of deforestation is that it provides a stream of benefits to certain groups in society who
therefore have a stake in its continuation. To devise instruments for directing or controlling the process
of deforestation, it is therefore necessary to identify the beneficiaries of deforestation to ensure that
the instruments adopted are relevant. In addition, market and policy instruments need to consider
whether the motive of the agents of deforestation is monetary gain or subsistence and allocate the
share of deforestation attributable to each agent. Much of the expansion of agriculture into previously
forested areas and fuelwood gathering is performed by poor members of society whose primary
concern is subsistence. On the other hand, logging, some agriculture and some charcoal making are
carried out essentially for commercial reasons. A Framework for Conflict Resolution 12. The process of
deforestation outlined above is not readily amenable to technical solutions. The major questions do not
concern the relative merits of different silvicultural practices or the choice of the discount rate. Rather,
the fundamental issue concerns conflicting interests over the use of forest resources. In the Philippines,
the answer has always been that the forests belong to loggers and their allies, while the interests of
communities and the many sectors that use or influence forests have never been paid much attention.
However, many of the conflicts among forest users could be avoided if a cross-sectoral policy approach
were adopted. 13. It is, first, necessary to: (i) identify all the sectors and groups that benefit from
forests; (ii) define the benefits and establish objectives for sustaining and balancing them; and (iii) state
how the objectives are to be achieved. The intention underlying the type of policy intervention
advocated here is resolution of conflicts by integrating compatible uses of forest resources and zoning
where uses are incompatible. 14. In the context of a medium-term framework for forest conservation
and development (the two need not be seen as irreconcilable), decision-makers should be encouraged
to: (i) take into account all forest values, including environmental services and biological diversity, and
not just the production of timber and other commodities; and (ii) establish mechanisms to ensure.

Conclusion 15.

n conclusion, deforestation will most suitably be addressed by a multidisciplinary approach that

emphasizes, against a pragmatic realization that societies are dynamic, the socioeconomic and political
environment in which the process of deforestation occurs. The role 4 It is important to realize that, in
the Philippines, deforestation in secondary forests usually follows the felling of primary forests. By 1987,
about 18 million people (30 percent of the country's population) were living in upland areas. This
movement into the uplands was inadvertently encouraged by the government's logging policies, which
reduced the cost of migration and settlement. Logging roads made forest lands accessible and logging
cleared the land, thus saving upland farmers as much as 60 percent of the total labor associated with
upland production. 4 of social ingenuity as a precursor to technical ingenuity should not be overlooked.
A sophisticated and stable system of markets, legal regimes, financial agencies, and educational and
research institutions is a prerequisite for the development and distribution of many technologies. At
present, however, not only are the Philippines ill-endowed with these social resources but their ability
to create and maintain them is being eroded by the very environmental problems the country is hoping
to address. The views expressed in this précis are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
views and policies of the Asian Development Bank, or its Board of Governors or the governments they
represent.

References.

Asian Development Bank. 1989. Sector Paper on Forestry. Manila. Boado, E.L. 1988. Incentive Policies
and Forest Use in the Philippines. In Public Policies and the Misuse of Forest Resources. Ed. Repetto, R.
et al. Washington, D.C. World Resources Institute. Cernea, M.M. 1993. The Sociologist's Approach to
Sustainable Development. Finance & Development. Vol. 30(4):11–13. IUCN/UNEP/WWF. 1991. Caring
for the Earth: A Strategy for Sustainable Living. Gland, Switzerland. Kummer, D.M. 1992. Deforestation in
the Postwar Philippines. Ateneo de Manila University Press. Repetto, R. 1988. The Forest for the Trees?
Government Policies and the Misuse of Forest Resources. Washington, D.C. World Resources Institute.
Sharma, N., and Rowe, R. 1992. Managing the World's Forests. Finance & Development. Vol. 29(2):31–
33.
 Fire incidents management system in the city of Cebu through geomapping Conference Paper ·

May 2016 DOI: 10.1109/TENCONSpring.2016.7519440

Maricor Y. Ingal Lyceum of the Philippines University College of Computer Studies Manila, Philippines
maricor.ingal@lpunetwork.edu.ph

Abstract— Fires have become a concern in recent years in the city of Manila, posing a threat to the
entire community. Manila Fire District is facing problems in their internal transactions between different
sub-stations. The study served as an automated fire incidents management system that can provide a
chart and a summary based on the input data of each sub-station and can provide a map of all the fire
incidents through geo-mapping in districts of Manila. This study, Manila Fire District could implement
appropriate programs and lead awareness campaign to the community to help lessen fire incidents and
mitigate its damages.

Keywords—fire incidents management, geo-mapping, fire incidents, government units, manila fire
district, temporal and spatial analysis)

I. INTRODUCTION
Fire safety has always been a critical issue and concern in the Philippines. Manila city is
home of hundreds of high-rise buildings, constructed using a variety of flammable materials
generating concern in fire safety. Fire incidents in the city of Manila are alarmingly
increasing and needs immediate approach to reduce these incidents. According to the
Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) a total of 615 fire incidents in Metro Manila occurred in the
first two months of 2015. Of these incidents, 18 people were killed and 46 were injured,
according to a report on GMA News TV's “Balitanghali” [1]. Fires are not only causing threat
to the community and the environment, but also to the lives of civilians and firemen as well.
For the period 2010-2013, the total number of fire casualties increased from 911 to 1,018
according to Philippine Statistics Authority [2]. The proponents selected the Manila Fire
District to be the beneficiary of this study because most of the parts of the study area, which
is the city of Manila, are accessible making the gathering of the data needed easier. The
Manila Fire District is consists of 14 sub-stations namely: Arroceros, Bacood, Gagalanging,
Intramuros, Malacañang, Paco, Pandacan, Sampaloc, San Lazaro, San Nicolas, Sta. Ana, Sta.
Mesa, Tanduay and Tondo. The proponents have conducted an interview on the Manila Fire
District Headquarters officers to gain information and gather the necessary report
documents and records of fire incidents. On the interview, the officers stated there are
problems being encountered on their internal processes such as sending and generating
reports between each sub-stations and the headquarters. The current system of the sub-
stations in sending and generating reports are in Excel file formats and being sent to the
headquarters manually and untimely. Retrieving data and records are difficult due to piles of
 printed documents. The headquarters lack the tool on analyzing their reports visually
through charts and geographic representation of fire incidents and its causes to determine
fire prone areas and patterns. These existing problems are timeconsuming as well as full of
deficiency for them as a government unit trusted on saving lives and properties. In this
study, the proponents aimed to integrate technology in the internal processes of the Manila
Fire District. The sending and generating of reports are automated and online through the
Fire Incidents Management System. The system serves as a database of fire incidents and
can provide generation of reports in charts to know what common causes of fires mostly
occur in an hourly, daily, monthly, quarterly, or yearly basis. It also uses GIS technology that
can provide a geographical mapping of fire incidents to know the fire prone areas and the
concentration of fire incidents on an area of the city of Manila. To have a better visual
analysis, the proponents used the icons of the cause of the fire for plotting for the Manila
Fire District to better analyze most common causes on different areas of the city. The results
of this study can also be complemented with temporal or spatial analysis or spatiotemporal
analysis. It can also help the Manila Fire District and affiliated government units to plan
ahead and as well as the community to be informed about the fire incidents and fire prone
areas around them. This way, fire incidents could be reduced and alleviate its damages and
the number of casualties could lessen to help save lives of both civilians and firemen.

II. RELATED STUDIES Fire Incidents continue to get more complex each year. Even as
populations grow, new technologies are developed, and people find new ways to create
emergency situations, fire fighters and other responders are expected to turn chaos into
order. [4]. Fires and fire-related casualties are relatively unstudied in the Philippines but are
perceived to be a continual problem in agreement with [10]Although people can’t know
exactly where or when the next event will occur, many incidents are quite predictable,
meaning they can and should prepare for them. The process of incidents analysis is very
important, since it allows the fire department to discover any weak points or problems that
can affect their critical services. In accordance to [6] GIS could help the fire agencies to
reduce the fire consequences, provide first responders with the best information to make
optimized decisions to recover from fire quickly and make a temporal analysis. To enhance
the identification of fire patterns based on time, presenting chart tools can be used to add
value. [7]. A web-based GIS can play a key role as an efficient way to distribute the
information to different users [5]. The [9] recommend that fire departments should provide
access to their data and fire calls so a value can be added to the historical data and pattern
and causes can be revealed. Spatiotemporal analysis can also be done to show the
interaction between space and time which can be complemented by GIS techniques for
better visualization of fire patterns. In accordance to [7] this will help in planning and
decision making. Based on [12] that no phenomenon has ever been controlled before it was
completely understood. This concept is applicable to the prevention and control of fires.
This fire prone area map can serve as the base information for developing a fire
management system. In the study of [8] stated that the way that the human brain processes
information, it is faster for people to grasp the meaning of many data points when they are
displayed in charts and graphs rather than poring over piles of spreadsheets or reading
pages and pages of reports. III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES Figure 1 Research Framework
The research framework on how the study was conducted is shown in Fig. 1. All documents
and information needed for the study were gathered from the Manila Fire District
Headquarters. A questionnaire was provided and interview was also conducted to a
representative for more detailed gathering of data. The documents and information
gathered were reviewed and analyzed to come up with the important requirements in
developing the system and its modules. Once reviewed and analyzed, the proponents
formulated the system requirements and appropriate modules. Based on the identified
requirements, the system should serve as a database and a centralized tool for the Manila
Fire District in sending and generating fire reports. Through the reports, the Manila Fire
District can generate chart of the reports to come up with different variations of fire causes
on different time variables to determine fire patterns across Manila. The system will be
using GIS technology as an additional feature to enable the Manila Fire District to have a
graphical representation of fire incidents in Manila. The data from the reports are going to
be useful in providing geographic data analysis. The study made use of the location included
in the reports to get the location coordinates of the fire incidents to be plotted using Google
Maps. Google Maps is a desktop web mapping service developed by Google. It offers
satellite imagery, street maps, 360 panoramic street views, real-time traffic conditions and
route planning [3]. With this, the Manila Fire District will have a visualization of fire
incidents, fire patterns and prone areas, and determine its main causes. IV. SYSTEM
ARCHITECTURE Figure 2 System Architecture The system has 3 different roles, each has its
own functionalities and levels of authorization. The District officer can only view the records
list, create a survey to be sent to the headquarters for the headquarters officer to generate,
import excel file of reports of fire incidents to be stored and generated into the system, and
to generate reports for their own substation. The Headquarters officer will be the one to
generate the excel reports, generate the charts and generate the maps. The administrator is
the only user allowed for user management such as changing authorization and approving
registrations of the users. The administrator is also the only user that can access all the
modules of the system. All transactions and reports are stored in the database. Guest users
have no internal access into the system. The guest users can access the Safety and View
Map functionality in the home page. The safety page is where the guest users can get fire
safety tips and announcements from the Bureau of Fire Protection. The View Map
functionality shows fire incidents on a yearly basis to provide awareness to the community
about the fire prone areas in the city of Manila. V. SYSTEM FEATURES The system is the Fire
Incidents Management System in the City of Manila through Geo-mapping. It is a web-based
system that allows the Manila Fire District to send monthly reports and generate reports of
fire incidents from different sub-stations to the headquarters. An additional feature of the
system is the geo-mapping of fire incidents in the city of manila with auto-generation of
location coordinates known as longitude and latitude. Figure. 3 Create Report Module with
auto-generation of longitude and latitude functionality The Create Report Module is shown
in Fig. 3. The district officer can create the reports. One of the main features of this is the
auto-generation of the location coordinates of a specific location, known as the longitude
and latitude. It will be used for plotting of the location on the map. The address fields are
where the location coordinates will be based. Figure 4 Generation of excel reports Figure
5.1Monthly patterns of fire incidents per cause Figure 5.2 Daily pattern of fire per cause
Generation of excel reports is shown in Fig. 4. The system will also provide generation of
charts based on filtered fields such as hourly, daily, monthly, and quarterly bases on the
selected year, yearly, per district or the different causes of fire. Fig. 5.1 shows the fires that
occurred on a monthly basis and Fig. 5.2 shows the daily occurrence of fires in the year
2016. Figure 6.1 Fires Due to Different Causes Figure 6.2 Fires Due to Electrical Connection
Figure 7 Heat Map showing Fire Concentration and Radius on Different Areas of Manila The
Mapping Module will be used to visually present fire incidents and fire prone areas based on
time variables and its causes. Fig. 6.1 and 6.2 shows the icon used in plotting are the cause
of the fire to easily determine fire patterns and trends. Fig. 6.1 can suggest that there is a
problem with the electrical connection due to the cause of two fire incidents on an area of
Sta. Mesa. A heat map is also provided to determine fire concentration and radius of the fire
incidents on an affected area shown in Figure 7. IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS According to
the results obtained in the analysis of the problems presented at the beginning of this study,
the Manila Fire District agrees that the use of the web could serve as a centralized tool in
their internal processes. The system meets the needs of the Manila Fire District in terms of
sending and generating reports, also in providing reports in statistical graphs, and
geographical map of fire incidents in the city of Manila. Although there are difficulties in
navigating and operating the system for users who are not familiar with the technology, the
overall impact and users’ acceptability of the system is at a high level. The overall
assessment and ranking are shown in Table 1. Statement Mean Response Interpretatio n
Rank 1. Functionality 4.47 Very Good 4 2.Reliability 4.39 Very Good 5 3. Usability 4.48 Very
Good 3 4.Efficiency 4.55 Excellent 1 5.Maintainability 4.34 Very Good 6 6. Portability 4.52
Excellent 2 Overall Mean 4.46 Very Good Table 1 Users’ overall acceptance of the proposed
web-based system. The rate of the proposed web-based system in terms of Functionality,
Reliability, Usability, Efficiency, Maintainability, and Probability were gathered from the
respondents of the Manila Fire District and other users.

VII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The proposed system will not just help the Manila Fire District improve their internal
processes such as sending and generating reports but it will serve as a centralized tool and a
database of fire records for the Manila Fire District. The Fire Incidents Management System
will help the Manila Fire District in fire prevention planning and fire response management
because it provides statistical graphs that determine the most common causes of fire and a
visualization fire incidents in different areas in the city of Manila through geo-mapping. Geo-
mapping technique provides an in-depth perception of geographic presentation of fire
incidents, fire prone areas and other trends and patterns. Through this, the Manila Fire
District can identify different patterns of fire incidents and its most common causes to be
able to come up with a conclusion on how to reduce cases and risks of fires in the city of
Manila. This way, the Manila Fire District and affiliated government units and organizations
could plan ahead, design risk-reduction measures, implement appropriate programs and
lead awareness campaign to the community to help lessen fire incidents and mitigate its
damages. This study is not just about the complexity of the system but also its impact not
just on its main beneficiary but for the community as well. This study provides community
awareness through its safety measures that inform the community about the risks of fire
and how to avoid, if not, at least lessen its cases and damages, and mapping module that
offers a visualization of fire prone areas in the city of Manila on a certain period of time.
While this study offers a better visualization of fire patterns, GIS technology can also be
used in different areas of research. Geo-mapping can offer temporal and spatial analyses
since it gives fire patterns that could help reveal fire patterns occurring in high frequency at
a certain period of time and show which areas are more likely to get fire incidents than the
others. In addition, this study could also serve as a backbone for future researchers who
want to conduct this type of study in a much wider area such as the National Capital Region.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We would like to thank the Manila Fire District Headquarters and to all people who give
support in providing all the data that is essential to the fulfillment of this study.

REFERENCES
[1] Hussin et. al (2008). The application of remote sensing and GIS in modelling forest fire
hazard in Mongolia. Retrieved from
www.isprs.org/proceedings/XXXVII/congress/8_pdf/2_WG... /22.pdf (access on: Dec 12,
2015) [2] Balahadia, F., et.al (2011). Temporal Analysis and Geomapping of Fire Incidents in
the City of Manila Retrieved from:
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?reload=true&a rnumber=7393211 (access
on: Jan. 07, 2016) [3] Google Maps (n.d.). Retrieved from
Wikipedia:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Maps (access on: Jan. 15, 2016) [4]
AlSharif,M. (2010). Fire Emergency Management System for Joshua Tree National Park.
Retrieved from University of Redland:
http://www.inspire.redlands.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1 000&context=gis_gradproj
(access on: Jan. 22, 2016) [5] Jakubowski, G. (2013).Preplanning & Incident Management
Trends. Retrieved from Firefighter Nation:
http://www.firefighternation.com/article/incident-command0/preplanning-incident-
management-trends (access on: Feb. 14, 2016) [7] De Costo, S. B., Gumela, M. V. (2014).
Should the Fire Prevention Month be Moved to April? Retrieved from Philippine Statistics
Authority - National Statistical Coordination Board. Retrieved from
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sexystats/2014/SS20140509_fire.asp (access on: Dec 9, 2015) [8]
Asgary, A., et.al (2012).SAS, Power to know. Retrieved from:
http://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/big-data/datavisualization.html (access on: Feb. 15,
2016) [10] Velasco, G. N. (2013). Epidemiological Assessment of Fires in the Philippines2010-
2012. Retrieved from: http://www.pids.gov.ph/dp.php?id=5213 (access on March 07,2016)
[11] Ravindra. M. (2011). A Geospatial Fire Risk Analysis of Athens, Ohio. Retrieved from:
https://etd.ohiolink.edu/ap/10?0::NO:10:P10_ACCESSION_N UM:ohiou1142460034 (access
on: March 15, 2016) [12] Macas. T. (2015) Over 600 fire incidents in Metro Manila from Jan.
to Feb.2015. Retrieved from GMA online:
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/445357/news/metro/ over-600-fire-incidents-in-
metro-manila-from-jan-to-feb2015-bfp (access on: March 17,2016)
Fire incidents management system in the city of Manila through geomapping
Maricor Y. Ingal Lyceum of the Philippines University College of Computer Studies Manila, Philippines
maricor.ingal@lpunetwork.edu.ph
Conference Paper · May 5, 2016
DOI: 10.1109/TENCONSpring.2016.7519440

Abstract— Fires have become a concern in recent years in the city of Manila, posing a threat to the
entire community. Manila Fire District is facing problems in their internal transactions between different
sub-stations. The study served as an automated fire incidents management system that can provide a
chart and a summary based on the input data of each sub-station and can provide a map of all the fire
incidents through geo-mapping in districts of Manila. This study, Manila Fire District could implement
appropriate programs and lead awareness campaign to the community to help lessen fire incidents and
mitigate its damages

. Keywords—fire incidents management, geo-mapping, fire incidents, government units, manila fire
district, temporal and spatial analysis)

INTRODUCTION

Fire safety has always been a critical issue and concern in the Philippines. Manila city is home of
hundreds of high-rise buildings, constructed using a variety of flammable materials generating concern
in fire safety. Fire incidents in the city of Manila are alarmingly increasing and needs immediate
approach to reduce these incidents. According to the Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) a total of 615 fire
incidents in Metro Manila occurred in the first two months of 2015. Of these incidents, 18 people were
killed and 46 were injured, according to a report on GMA News TV's “Balitanghali” [1]. Fires are not only
causing threat to the community and the environment, but also to the lives of civilians and firemen as
well. For the period 2010-2013, the total number of fire casualties increased from 911 to 1,018
according to Philippine Statistics Authority [2]. The proponents selected the Manila Fire District to be
the beneficiary of this study because most of the parts of the study area, which is the city of Manila, are
accessible making the gathering of the data needed easier. The Manila Fire District is consists of 14 sub-
stations namely: Arroceros, Bacood, Gagalanging, Intramuros, Malacañang, Paco, Pandacan, Sampaloc,
San Lazaro, San Nicolas, Sta. Ana, Sta. Mesa, Tanduay and Tondo. The proponents have conducted an
interview on the Manila Fire District Headquarters officers to gain information and gather the necessary
report documents and records of fire incidents. On the interview, the officers stated there are problems
being encountered on their internal processes such as sending and generating reports between each
sub-stations and the headquarters. The current system of the sub-stations in sending and generating
reports are in Excel file formats and being sent to the headquarters manually and untimely. Retrieving
data and records are difficult due to piles of printed documents. The headquarters lack the tool on
analyzing their reports visually through charts and geographic representation of fire incidents and its
causes to determine fire prone areas and patterns. These existing problems are timeconsuming as well
as full of deficiency for them as a government unit trusted on saving lives and properties. In this study,
the proponents aimed to integrate technology in the internal processes of the Manila Fire District. The
sending and generating of reports are automated and online through the Fire Incidents Management
System. The system serves as a database of fire incidents and can provide generation of reports in charts
to know what common causes of fires mostly occur in an hourly, daily, monthly, quarterly, or yearly
basis. It also uses GIS technology that can provide a geographical mapping of fire incidents to know the
fire prone areas and the concentration of fire incidents on an area of the city of Manila. To have a better
visual analysis, the proponents used the icons of the cause of the fire for plotting for the Manila Fire
District to better analyze most common causes on different areas of the city. The results of this study
can also be complemented with temporal or spatial analysis or spatiotemporal analysis. It can also help
the Manila Fire District and affiliated government units to plan ahead and as well as the community to
be informed about the fire incidents and fire prone areas around them. This way, fire incidents could be
reduced and alleviate its damages and the number of casualties could lessen to help save lives of both
civilians and firemen. II. RELATED STUDIES Fire Incidents continue to get more complex each year. Even
as populations grow, new technologies are developed, and people find new ways to create emergency
situations, fire fighters and other responders are expected to turn chaos into order. [4]. Fires and fire-
related casualties are relatively unstudied in the Philippines but are perceived to be a continual problem
in agreement with [10]Although people can’t know exactly where or when the next event will occur,
many incidents are quite predictable, meaning they can and should prepare for them. The process of
incidents analysis is very important, since it allows the fire department to discover any weak points or
problems that can affect their critical services. In accordance to [6] GIS could help the fire agencies to
reduce the fire consequences, provide first responders with the best information to make optimized
decisions to recover from fire quickly and make a temporal analysis. To enhance the identification of fire
patterns based on time, presenting chart tools can be used to add value. [7]. A web-based GIS can play a
key role as an efficient way to distribute the information to different users [5]. The [9] recommend that
fire departments should provide access to their data and fire calls so a value can be added to the
historical data and pattern and causes can be revealed. Spatiotemporal analysis can also be done to
show the interaction between space and time which can be complemented by GIS techniques for better
visualization of fire patterns. In accordance to [7] this will help in planning and decision making. Based
on [12] that no phenomenon has ever been controlled before it was completely understood. This
concept is applicable to the prevention and control of fires. This fire prone area map can serve as the
base information for developing a fire management system. In the study of [8] stated that the way that
the human brain processes information, it is faster for people to grasp the meaning of many data points
when they are displayed in charts and graphs rather than poring over piles of spreadsheets or reading
pages and pages of reports. III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES Figure 1 Research Framework The research
framework on how the study was conducted is shown in Fig. 1. All documents and information needed
for the study were gathered from the Manila Fire District Headquarters. A questionnaire was provided
and interview was also conducted to a representative for more detailed gathering of data. The
documents and information gathered were reviewed and analyzed to come up with the important
requirements in developing the system and its modules. Once reviewed and analyzed, the proponents
formulated the system requirements and appropriate modules. Based on the identified requirements,
the system should serve as a database and a centralized tool for the Manila Fire District in sending and
generating fire reports. Through the reports, the Manila Fire District can generate chart of the reports to
come up with different variations of fire causes on different time variables to determine fire patterns
across Manila. The system will be using GIS technology as an additional feature to enable the Manila Fire
District to have a graphical representation of fire incidents in Manila. The data from the reports are
going to be useful in providing geographic data analysis. The study made use of the location included in
the reports to get the location coordinates of the fire incidents to be plotted using Google Maps. Google
Maps is a desktop web mapping service developed by Google. It offers satellite imagery, street maps,
360 panoramic street views, real-time traffic conditions and route planning [3]. With this, the Manila
Fire District will have a visualization of fire incidents, fire patterns and prone areas, and determine its
main causes. IV. SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE Figure 2 System Architecture The system has 3 different roles,
each has its own functionalities and levels of authorization. The District officer can only view the records
list, create a survey to be sent to the headquarters for the headquarters officer to generate, import
excel file of reports of fire incidents to be stored and generated into the system, and to generate reports
for their own substation. The Headquarters officer will be the one to generate the excel reports,
generate the charts and generate the maps. The administrator is the only user allowed for user
management such as changing authorization and approving registrations of the users. The administrator
is also the only user that can access all the modules of the system. All transactions and reports are
stored in the database. Guest users have no internal access into the system. The guest users can access
the Safety and View Map functionality in the home page. The safety page is where the guest users can
get fire safety tips and announcements from the Bureau of Fire Protection. The View Map functionality
shows fire incidents on a yearly basis to provide awareness to the community about the fire prone areas
in the city of Manila. V. SYSTEM FEATURES The system is the Fire Incidents Management System in the
City of Manila through Geo-mapping. It is a web-based system that allows the Manila Fire District to
send monthly reports and generate reports of fire incidents from different sub-stations to the
headquarters. An additional feature of the system is the geo-mapping of fire incidents in the city of
manila with auto-generation of location coordinates known as longitude and latitude. Figure. 3 Create
Report Module with auto-generation of longitude and latitude functionality The Create Report Module
is shown in Fig. 3. The district officer can create the reports. One of the main features of this is the auto-
generation of the location coordinates of a specific location, known as the longitude and latitude. It will
be used for plotting of the location on the map. The address fields are where the location coordinates
will be based. Figure 4 Generation of excel reports Figure 5.1Monthly patterns of fire incidents per cause
Figure 5.2 Daily pattern of fire per cause Generation of excel reports is shown in Fig. 4. The system will
also provide generation of charts based on filtered fields such as hourly, daily, monthly, and quarterly
bases on the selected year, yearly, per district or the different causes of fire. Fig. 5.1 shows the fires that
occurred on a monthly basis and Fig. 5.2 shows the daily occurrence of fires in the year 2016. Figure 6.1
Fires Due to Different Causes Figure 6.2 Fires Due to Electrical Connection Figure 7 Heat Map showing
Fire Concentration and Radius on Different Areas of Manila The Mapping Module will be used to visually
present fire incidents and fire prone areas based on time variables and its causes. Fig. 6.1 and 6.2 shows
the icon used in plotting are the cause of the fire to easily determine fire patterns and trends. Fig. 6.1
can suggest that there is a problem with the electrical connection due to the cause of two fire incidents
on an area of Sta. Mesa. A heat map is also provided to determine fire concentration and radius of the
fire incidents on an affected area shown in Figure 7.

IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

According to the results obtained in the analysis of the problems presented at the beginning of this
study, the Manila Fire District agrees that the use of the web could serve as a centralized tool in their
internal processes. The system meets the needs of the Manila Fire District in terms of sending and
generating reports, also in providing reports in statistical graphs, and geographical map of fire incidents
in the city of Manila. Although there are difficulties in navigating and operating the system for users who
are not familiar with the technology, the overall impact and users’ acceptability of the system is at a high
level. The overall assessment and ranking are shown in Table 1. Statement Mean Response Interpretatio
n Rank 1. Functionality 4.47 Very Good 4 2.Reliability 4.39 Very Good 5 3. Usability 4.48 Very Good 3
4.Efficiency 4.55 Excellent 1 5.Maintainability 4.34 Very Good 6 6. Portability 4.52 Excellent 2

VII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The proposed system will not just help the Manila Fire District improve their internal processes such as
sending and generating reports but it will serve as a centralized tool and a database of fire records for
the Manila Fire District. The Fire Incidents Management System will help the Manila Fire District in fire
prevention planning and fire response management because it provides statistical graphs that
determine the most common causes of fire and a visualization fire incidents in different areas in the city
of Manila through geo-mapping. Geo-mapping technique provides an in-depth perception of geographic
presentation of fire incidents, fire prone areas and other trends and patterns. Through this, the Manila
Fire District can identify different patterns of fire incidents and its most common causes to be able to
come up with a conclusion on how to reduce cases and risks of fires in the city of Manila. This way, the
Manila Fire District and affiliated government units and organizations could plan ahead, design risk-
reduction measures, implement appropriate programs and lead awareness campaign to the community
to help lessen fire incidents and mitigate its damages. This study is not just about the complexity of the
system but also its impact not just on its main beneficiary but for the community as well. This study
provides community awareness through its safety measures that inform the community about the risks
of fire and how to avoid, if not, at least lessen its cases and damages, and mapping module that offers a
visualization of fire prone areas in the city of Manila on a certain period of time. While this study offers a
better visualization of fire patterns, GIS technology can also be used in different areas of research. Geo-
mapping can offer temporal and spatial analyses since it gives fire patterns that could help reveal fire
patterns occurring in high frequency at a certain period of time and show which areas are more likely to
get fire incidents than the others. In addition, this study could also serve as a backbone for future
researchers who want to conduct this type of study in a much wider area such as the National Capital
Region.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We would like to thank the Manila Fire District Headquarters and to all people who give support in
providing all the data that is essential to the fulfillment of this study.

REFERENCES

[1] Hussin et. al (2008). The application of remote sensing and GIS in modelling forest fire hazard in
Mongolia. Retrieved from www.isprs.org/proceedings/XXXVII/congress/8_pdf/2_WG... /22.pdf (access
on: Dec 12, 2015) [2] Balahadia, F., et.al (2011). Temporal Analysis and Geomapping of Fire Incidents in
the City of Manila Retrieved from: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?reload=true&a
rnumber=7393211 (access on: Jan. 07, 2016) [3] Google Maps (n.d.). Retrieved from
Wikipedia:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Maps (access on: Jan. 15, 2016) [4] AlSharif,M.
(2010). Fire Emergency Management System for Joshua Tree National Park. Retrieved from University of
Redland: http://www.inspire.redlands.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1 000&context=gis_gradproj
(access on: Jan. 22, 2016) [5] Jakubowski, G. (2013).Preplanning & Incident Management Trends.
Retrieved from Firefighter Nation: http://www.firefighternation.com/article/incident-
command0/preplanning-incident-management-trends (access on: Feb. 14, 2016) [7] De Costo, S. B.,
Gumela, M. V. (2014). Should the Fire Prevention Month be Moved to April? Retrieved from Philippine
Statistics Authority - National Statistical Coordination Board. Retrieved from
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sexystats/2014/SS20140509_fire.asp (access on: Dec 9, 2015) [8] Asgary, A.,
et.al (2012).SAS, Power to know. Retrieved from: http://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/big-
data/datavisualization.html (access on: Feb. 15, 2016) [10] Velasco, G. N. (2013). Epidemiological
Assessment of Fires in the Philippines2010-2012. Retrieved from:
http://www.pids.gov.ph/dp.php?id=5213 (access on March 07,2016) [11] Ravindra. M. (2011). A
Geospatial Fire Risk Analysis of Athens, Ohio. Retrieved from:
https://etd.ohiolink.edu/ap/10?0::NO:10:P10_ACCESSION_N UM:ohiou1142460034 (access on: March
15, 2016) [12] Macas. T. (2015) Over 600 fire incidents in Metro Manila from Jan. to Feb.2015. Retrieved

Earthquake activities in the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas

Article in Geosciences Journal ·
September 2016 DOI: 10.1007/s12303-016-0017-x

ABSTRACT:

This study focused on the seismic activities in the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas where the
inter- and intra-plate seismic sources are prevalent. To access this, the frequency-magnitude distribution
model was employed with the completeness seismicity data. Then, the possible maximum magnitude,
return period and probability of earthquake occurrence, including the prospective areas of upcoming
earthquakes, were evaluated. The results indicated that eastern Taiwan is among the most seismic-
prone areas.

Key words: seismicity, frequency-magnitude distribution, return period, probability, Philippines

INTRODUCTION

According to the Eurasian-Philippines Sea plate collisions, the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas
are tectonically complex. The relative plate motions range from 5–40 mm/ year (Galgana et al., 2007). In
the northern part the Eurasian plate subducts steeply eastward underneath the Philippines Sea plate,
whilst in the southern part the Philippines Sea plate subducts underneath the Eurasian plate with a
shallow westdipping. As a result, several micro-plates are squeezed between these Eurasian-Philippines
Sea plate boundaries that are occupied by two major seismotectonic regimes, i.e., crustal faults and
subduction zones. The faults are mostly located inland of the Philippines Islands, while nine major zones
of plate subduction lie along the offshore regions surrounding the Philippines Islands and consist of the
(1) East Luzon Trench (ELT), (2) Halmahera Subduction Zone (HSZ), (3) Manila Trench (MLT), (4)
Minahassa Trench (MST), (5) Palawan Trench (PWT), (6) Philippines Subduction Zone (PSZ), (7) Sangihe
Double Subduction Zone (SSZ), (8) Sulu Archipelago Trench (SAT) and (9) Sulu Trench (SLT) (Fig. 1). Due
to the present-day activities of the above seismotectonic regimes, the Philippines Islands and
neighborhood countries are frequently affected by earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes. At least 65
volcanoes placed in the vicinity of the Philippines Islands are defined as scientifically as active or
potentially active (Fig. 1). About 95 earthquake events with a moment magnitude (Mw) > 7.0 were
recorded over the recent 54-year period of 1960–2014. In addition, since 1509 around 280 locations of
tsunami run-up, caused mostly by earthquakes, were reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). Thus, the Philippines Islands is one of the most natural hazard-prone areas and
so the present-day situation needs to be clarified, in particular for the seismic and tsunami hazards.
Based on a literature review, Liu et al. (2007) defined the tsunamigenic earthquake sources in the South
China Sea that might impact upon the coast lines of Taiwan and Hong Kong. Beroya and Aydin (2008)
analyzed the local seismic hazard in the northern part of the Philippines, but recognized only some
earthquake sources and the active faults. In addition, Ha et al. (2009) and Ruangrassamee and Saelem
(2009) determined the worst-case scenarios for tsunami hazards in the South China Sea, including the
Gulf of Thailand. By assuming a maximum credible earthquake of Mw-9.0 generated at the MLT (no. 3),
the most severe tsunami hazards were located at the Philippines, Vietnam and the southern coast of
China. Meanwhile, for the Gulf of Thailand, the tsunami travel time was estimated to be ~13 h with a
maximum wave height of ~0.65 m (Ruangrassamee and Saelem, 2009). As noted above, most of the
previous works have focused only on some seismotectonic regimes and with the worst-case scenarios
usually being assumed. From these results, seismicand tsunamigenic-resistant designs or constructions
require a high budget. Probabilistic approaches would, therefore, be useful in providing an alternative
understanding of the risk probability and so formed the main aim of this study. Using the instrumental
earthquake data (i.e., the earthquake catalogue), the various parameters that imply the probabilistic
seismic activities were investigated. The outcomes are useful for allowing a compromise between
effective mitigation plans and the required budget for not only the seismic hazard in the Philippines
Islands but also the tsunami hazard in the coastal communities surrounding the South China Sea and the
Gulf of Thailand.

2. DATASET

Since 1965, the World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network (WWSSN) has constructed several seismic
stations in order to observe globally the earthquake occurrences. As a result there are at present at least
three catalogues of instrumentally recorded earthquake events in the area of this study (latitude 4.2°S–
26.1°N and longitude 110.0°E–132.2°E) (Fig. 1). These are i) the International Seismological Centre, ii)
the US National Earthquake Information Center, and iii) the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogues.
However, within the individual catalogues, three different scales of magnitude are stated for different
earthquake events; namely the Mw, bodywave magnitude (mb) and surface-wave magnitude (Ms).
Practically, each scale is derived by specific analytical procedures with different implied values and
meanings. In order to homogenize the catalogues used here, both the mb and Ms scales were converted
to Mw using the empirical relationships contributed from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor data of
the study area. Empirically, any earthquake catalogue is the result of spatially and temporally
heterogeneous networks of seismometers, and processed using a variety of software, assumptions and
also judgments (Habermann, 1987; Zuniga and Wiemer, 1999). The earthquake catalogues contributed
by these different networks, therefore, have both advantages and disadvantages themselves in terms of
the continuity, recording time span and limit of the recordable magnitude range. In statistical
seismology, a longer earthquake recording time span and a wider detectable magnitude range lead to a
greater accuracy in the statistical seismicity analysis. Therefore, all three catalogues, after being
standardized to Mw, were merged in order to extend the recordable magnitude range as much as
possible, as well as the recording time span and numbers of earthquake events. The identical
earthquakes were then deleted according to the assumption proposed by Suckale and Grünthal (2009).
This new composite catalogue contained 505,262 earthquakes over a recorded range of 1.0–9.2 Mw for
the period 1960– 2014. To eliminate foreshocks and aftershocks, which do not exactly represent the
seismotectonic activities, the declustering assumption of Gardner and Knopoff (1974) was applied
following the previous seismicity investigations of So et al. (2012) and Wen et al. (2012). Consequently,
the declustering process distinguished 12,717 clusters of earthquakes, from which a total of 479,527
events (95%) were identified as foreshocks or aftershocks and so were excluded from the catalogue. As
a result, 25,735 main shocks, expressing directly the seismotectonic activities, were identified. Besides
homogenizing and declustering, almost all of the earthquake catalogues are empirically contaminated
by manmade activities that bias the earthquake report and seismic rate change, i.e., detection changes,
reporting changes, and magnitude shifts (Wyss, 1991; Zuniga and Wiemer, 1999). Like most previous
research works, the GENAS algorithm (Habermann, 1983; 1987) was used for checking for man-made
changes and selecting the earthquake data suitable for quantitative investigation. According to the
GENAS algorithm, the main shocks in this dataset with a Mw  4.2 recorded during 1980–2011 showed a
constant cumulative rate and so imply that human errors are not of significant concern (Fig. 2a). Thus,
the 1980–2011 part of earthquake catalogue was identified as the completeness earthquake catalogue
that can be used reliably for earthquake activity investigation. In this study, the focal depth of all events
was limited to 0–60 km so as to recognize only the intraplate (crustal fault) and interplate (subduction z

EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES

According to Ishimoto and Iida (1939) and Gutenberg and Richter (1944), the frequency and magnitude
of earthquakes is related empirically in the so called frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD), as
expressed in Equation (1); log(N) = a  bM or ln(N) = ln  M, (1) where N is the average number of
earthquakes per year having a magnitude M, a and b are coefficients that vary depending directly on
the time and space of the earthquake data, and  and  are closely related to the a- and b-values by
Equations (2a) and (2b), respectively; , (2a) and . (2b) From Equation (1), the FMD was derived using the
bulk completeness data obtained in section 2. Figure 2b illustrates the FMD plot constrained by the
straight linear regression fit of the earthquake data. Based mainly on the entire-magnituderange
method proposed by Woessner and Wiemer (2005), the a- and b-values of the bulk earthquake data
were estimated to be 5.59 and 0.73, respectively. Moreover, the earthquake recording capability of the
existing seismic network was limited at Mw  4.8 indicating the determined magnitude of completeness
(Mc) (Woessner and Wiemer, 2005). For detailed investigation, the FMD, including the a- and b-values,
were evaluated spatially according to Pailoplee et al. (2013). At first in any individual specific area, the
spatial distribution of the radius extended for acquiring 30 earthquake events were investigated
throughout the study areas. This revealed that an average radius of 110 km (about 1°) is capable of
obtaining at least 30 earthquake events, which is a suitable level for statistical investigation of the FMD
(Wiemer, 2001). Therefore, in order to avoid double use of the earthquake data, the area surrounding
the earthquake sources mentioned in section 1 was gridded with a 1° × 1° spacing. Empirically, for each
individual grid node, any earthquake within a fixed 110- km radius was then selected and contributed to
the FMD. In order to estimate the constant a- and b-values of the FMD, a number of statistical formulas
were proposed previously, e.g., Aki, 1965; Utsu, 1965, 1966; Shi and Bolt, 1982; Bender, 1983; Tinti and
Mulargia, 1987. However according to theone) earthquake activities, which are the major cause of
seismic or tsunamigenic devastation.

unavoidable use of binned magnitudes, and by the measurement errors on the magnitude, Marzocchi
and Sandri (2003) revealed that the most commonly used fomular of Aki (1965) produce a strong bias of
b-value and its uncertainty estimation. Meanwhile for the other formulars in particularly for Bender
(1983), the biases of b-value estimation was reduced drastically (Marzocchi and Sandri, 2003). The
models of Bender (1983) implemented in the ZMAP program (Wiemer, 2001) was, therefore, applied in
this study to estimate the b value and its uncertainty. The obtained values were then contoured and
mapped along the recognized seismogenic source, as shown in Figure 3. Some specific areas were
expanded to show additional details of the FMD plot, as illustrated in Figure 4. However, due to the
insufficiency of the earthquake data, the FMD in the vicinity of the PWT, SAT and the southern part of
SLT (nos. 5, 8 and 9) were not available. Based on Figure 3a, three prominent areas with comparatively
high a-values were found, being at the (i) eastern Manila, (ii) northern Davao, where the crustal faults
are dominated inland of the Philippines Islands, and (iii) region in the vicinity of Manado where the MST
and SSZ (nos. 4 and 7) are occupied. Meanwhile, the area surrounding the northern segment of SAT (no.
8) revealed low a-values of 1.0–2.0 (Fig. 3a). The distribution of b-values (Fig. 3b) conformed mostly to
the distribution of the a-values, in that areas that showed a comparatively low or high a-value also
illustrated a corresponding low or high b-value. Regarding the accuracy, most of the study area, in
particular along the subducting belt, shows a standard deviation (SD) of the FMD regression of less than
0.2 (Fig. 3c), implying a low variation in the obtained a- and b-value maps. The obtained FMD of most of
the area had a >80% goodness of fit indicating a reliable FMD (Fig. 3d). However, there are some areas
along the MST and eastern rims of the SLT (nos. 4 and 9) that have a SD of more than 0.2, where any
interpretation and discussion is, therefore, tentative. In a seismological context, the a-value is taken to
imply the entire seismicity rate of any space and time. Regarding only the a-values, the inland crustal
faults and offshore MST and SSZ (nos. 4 and 7) then had released earthquakes with a bulk seismicity rate
higher than the other regions (Fig. 3a). However, the b-value seismologically is the ratio of small-to-large
sized earthquakes. The higher the b-value, the less possible it is to generate a large event. Accordingly,
the areas conforming to high a- and b-values are not likely then to act as high hazard regions, whereas
areas with low a- and b-values are capable of generating large earthquakes with a few numbers of
events. Thus, the earthquake activities in individual areas were evaluated further by deriving and then
weighting between the aand b-values, as detailed next in section 3.1. 3.1. Possible Maximum Magnitude
According to Yadav et al. (2011), the maximum earthquake capable of being generated in the next t
years can be evaluated from both the α- and β-values via Equation (3); . (3) Therefore, the a- and b-value
maps obtained in section 3 ut ln  t  --------------= Fig. 2. (a) Cumulative number of the completeness
earthquakes after declustering and eliminating man-made changes. Black circles indicate earthquakes
with Mw  7.0. (b) FMD plot of the completeness earthquake data, i.e., Mw  4.2 recorded during 1980–
2011. Triangles are the earthquake number in each magnitude whereas squares represent the
cumulative number of earthquakes with an Mw equal to or larger than each magnitude. Solid line is the
linear regression after evaluating the Mc following the assumption of Woessner and Wiemer (2005).
Earthquake in Philippines 881 Fig. 3. Maps of the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas showing the
(a) a-value, (b) b-value, (c) standard deviation of each obtained b-value, and (d) the goodness fit of the
FMD. The circles indicate the 110-km radius from four specific areas (a–d) where the FMD plots are
demonstrated in Figure 4. 882 Santi Pailoplee and Natchana Boonchaluay (Figs. 3a and b) were
converted spatially to their corresponding α- and β-values following Equations (2a) and (2b),
respectively. Thereafter, the possible maximum magnitude that might occur in the next 5, 10, 30 and 50
years was evaluated and mapped (Fig. 5). Based on Figure 5, the highest seismic activities were found at
the offshore region of the eastern part of Taiwan. Tectonically, this seismic-prone area can generate an
earthquake with a maximum magnitude of 6.8, 7.4, 7.7 and up to 8.0 Mw in the next 5, 10, 30 and 50
year-periods, respectively. In addition, the areas in the vicinity of Davao and Manado, i.e., HSZ, PSZ and
SSZ (nos. 2, 6 and 7), were also found to be prominent hazardous seismic source zones and could
generate a potential earthquake with Mw 6.8–7.1 in the next 5–10 years (Figs. 5a and b). Meanwhile,
the crustal faults located mostly inland of the Philippines Islands were defined as intermediate hazard
levels compared to the other subduction zones. Based on this study, the Philippines Islands have a
possibility to experience shallow crustal earthquakes with a potential maximum magnitude of 5.6–7.4
Mw over a 5–50 year time period (Fig. 5). Within the limits of the recorded earthquake events, the PWT,
SAT and SLT (nos. 5, 8 and 9) areas were classified as aseismic source zones, where the likely earthquake
activity is not prominent (Fig. 5). 3.2. Return Period of Earthquakes In addition to the possible maximum
magnitude, Yadav et al. (2011) expressed the return period of earthquakes based on the α and β
parameters, where the return period (TM) of an earthquake with magnitude M can be analyzed
according to Equation (4), . (4) Variations in the return period of earthquakes ---------------------= Fig. 4.
The demonstrated FMD plots of the four specific sites shown in Figure 3. Earthquake in Philippines 883
Fig. 5. Map of the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas showing the maximum earthquake
magnitude likely to be generated in each area in the next (a) 5, (b) 10, (c) 30 and (d) 50 years,
respectively. 884 Santi Pailoplee and Natchana Boonchaluay Fig. 6. Map of the Philippines Islands and
the adjacent areas showing the estimated recurrence interval of earthquakes with an individual Mw of
(a) 5.0, (b) 6.0, (c) 7.0 and (d) 8.0. Earthquake in Philippines 885 Fig. 7. Map of the Philippines Islands
and the adjacent areas showing the spatial distribution of the probabilities of an earthquake with a
magnitude of (a) 5.0, (b) 6.0, (c) 7.0 and (d) 8.0 Mw that could be generated in the next 50 years. 886
Santi Pailoplee and Natchana Boonchaluay nitude of 5.0–8.0 Mw (Fig. 6) revealed that the calculated
return periods normally conformed to the possible maximum magnitude described in section 3.1. For an
individual magnitude of interest, the offshore region of the eastern part of Taiwan and the eastern part
of PSZ (no. 6), including the area surrounding HSZ and SSZ (nos. 2 and 7), revealed shorter return periods
compared to the other regions. For example, return periods of 70% (Fig. 7d). 4. PROSPECTIVE
EARTHQUAKE SOURCE Beside the earthquake activities, as proposed by Yadav et al. (2011), a large
number of research works have applied the bof the FMD for earthquake forecasting differently. For
instance, comparatively low b-values were shown to correlate empirically with a high level of
accumulated stress in that specific area (Scholz, 1968; Wyss, 1973), whilst congruency between a low b-
value area and the location of following earthquakes has been reported (e.g., Schorlemmer et al., 2003;
Nuannin et al., 2005; Chan et al., 2012). In particular, Nuannin et al. (2005) proposed that by using the
50 earthquake events closest to individual site of interest a comparatively low b-value can be used as an
effective precursor of the upcoming earthquakes. Thus, the investigation of the prospect of an
upcoming earthquake in each area in this study was evaluated using the FMD b-values. In order to affirm
compliance of the 1980–2011 completed.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION In this study, the earthquake hazard in the Philippines Islands and the
adjacent areas were investigated using the earthquake FMD. The completeness earthquake catalogue
was provided in order to spatially evaluate the a- and b-value coefficients of FMD, which are needed for
the seismic hazard determination. From the obtained a- and b-value maps, the possible maximum
magnitude, recurrence interval and probability of occurrence (Yadav et al., 2011) of earthquakes with a
Mw > 5.0 were evaluated. For the potential largest earthquake magnitude, the offshore region of the
eastern part of Taiwan was defined as the most hazardous zone and was capable of generating
earthquakes with a magnitude up to 8.0 Mw in the next 50 years, and with return periods of 7.1 Mw in a
5 and 10 year-period, respectively. For the northern MST and eastern SLT areas (nos. 4 and 9), the
average time intervals for earthquake occurrences were around 100–200 years for earthquake
magnitudes of 7.0–8.0 Mw. In contrast, within the limits of the recorded earthquake events, the area in
the vicinity of PWT, SAT and SLT (nos. 5, 8, and 9) were classified seismically as aseismic source zones.
For the probabilities (%) of earthquake occurences in the next 50 years, an earthquake with a Mw 5.0–
6.0 is likely over the whole study area with an almost 100% probability, whilst the probability for 7.0 and
8.0 Mw earthquake vary across the region, but were almost 100% and >70%, respectively, in the the
high hazard areas at Taiwan, Davao and eastern Manado. With respect to regional earthquake
forecasting, the b-values were mapped using the condition proposed by Nuannin et al. (2005) after
confirming compliance to the assumption over three sub-datasets of earthquakes recorded before 2005.
Using the 1980–2010 dataset, six prominent areas with low b-values were found at (i) eastern Taiwan,
(ii) northwestern Manila, (iii) western Manila, (iv) western Davao, (v) eastern Davao and (vi) eastern
Manado. Thus, mitigation plans should be contributed in these surrounding areas.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:

This research was supported by the ASEAN Studies Center, Chulalongkorn University. Thanks are also
extended to T. Pailoplee for the preparation of the draft manuscript. I thank the Publication Counseling
Unit (PCU), Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, for a critical review and improved English. I
acknowledge the thoughtful comments and suggestions by the editors and anonymous reviewers that
enhanced the quality of this manuscript significantly.

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 Solar-Powered Field Server and Aerator Development for Lake Palakpakin
Dominic B. Solpico∗1,∗2, Nathaniel J. C. Libatique∗1,∗2, Gregory L. Tangonan∗1, Paul M. Cabacungan∗1,
Guillaume Girardot∗1,∗2,∗3, Ramon M. Macaraig∗1,∗4, Teresita R. Perez∗1,∗5, and Andrea Teran∗1
∗1Ateneo Innovation Center, Ateneo de Manila University Loyola Heights, Quezon City 1108, Philippines
E-mail: db.solpico@gmail.com
∗2Electronics Computer and Communications Engineering Department, Ateneo de Manila University
∗3Institut Catholique d’Arts et M´etiers 6 rue Auber, Lille 59000, France
∗4Alsons Aquaculture Corporation 2286 Chino Roces Ave., Makati City, 1200, Philippines
∗5Environmental Sciences Department, Ateneo de Manila University [Received February 21, 2014;
accepted November 3, 2016]

We have designed, developed and deployed a robust system of sensors in a small and shallow – 1 km
diameter and about 7 m deep – inland lake used for aquaculture. The sensor system currently measures
and sends out telemetry data on dissolved oxygen, conductivity and temperature in the lake at two
depths – 0.5 and 2.5 meters – every 30 minutes. The measurements are sent out via SMS to a central
server 80 km away and displayed in near-real time on a website which can be accessed by local
fishermen, researchers and other stakeholders. The system also features an aerator, which operates
automatically during the evening and early morning 12 hours at a time, and can also be turned on
outside this period via missed-call (dropped call) from a cellular phone. This system can aid in decision-
making of local fishermen, making it a potentially powerful approach to lake management, and in
conjunction with other measures and long term planning, for averting or mitigating fishkill events.
Keywords: water quality, wireless sensor network, lake management, aquaculture, field server 1.
Introduction Lake Palakpakin is one of the Seven lakes in San Pablo City, Laguna, Philippines and for
several years, teams of researchers from Ateneo de Manila University have been monitoring Lake
Palakpakin’s water quality due to impacts of anthropogenic activities particularly aquaculture and
effluents coming from the lakeshore community [1]. This effort eventually led to the development of
sensor systems that can monitor the lake’s water quality. In this community, the multi-stakeholders
want successful fish farming, agriculture, and lake tourism and will necessarily need to have best
practices for lake resource management. A critical problem facing aquaculture on fresh water lakes in
the Philippines is the frequent incidences of fish kill events in freshwater lakes. Compounded by climate
change effects, pesticide runoff, accumulation of waste products and fish food sediments, parasitic and
bacterial infections, reduced photosynthesis caused by algae blooms and diminishing of oxygen levels
caused by increased biological oxygen demand [1], fish kills present an annual problem for fishermen
not only in inland lakes but also in coastal and brackish waters [1–7]. Poor water quality affects overall
fish health and feed-to-mass conversion ratios and ultimately results in revenue loss for fish culture
operators and caretakers. In a preliminary effort [8] to understand the present state of the lake and to
propose corrective measures for an already over-burdened ecosystem, Ateneo researchers have up to
now been measuring key parameters like Dissolved Oxygen (DO), water temperature, and turbidity on
an intermittent basis. This situation has changed significantly with the design, development and
deployment in Lake Palakpakin of a system of sensors and actuators with the following new capability: •
Suite of sensors on a floating platform: dissolved oxygen, water conductivity, temperature at two depths
– 0.5 and 2.5 meters. • Twenty-four-hour-operation with updates every half hour delivered to AIC
website (www.ateneoprojects .org) for remote lake management by local stakeholders and research
collaborators. • Solar-powered sensor package for all-weather use. • SMS reporting of data from the
field over common carrier infrastructure and ‘bargain’ cellphone rates. Vol.18 No.5, 2014 Journal of
Advanced Computational Intelligence 755 and Intelligent Informatics Solpico, D. B. et al. As we learned
several years ago, the DO levels in the fish cages support good fish growth only to depths of 2 meters,
while the cages themselves are 5 meters in depth [9]. Fishermen have had to under-stock and lengthen
their grow-out periods to 5 months in some cases [1]. This article also includes a description of our novel
aerator system, working in conjunction with our sensor buoy, currently deployed in Lake Palakpakin.
This new aerator system has the following system parameters: • Thirty-Watt air pumps with 60 liter per
minute capability; AC pump driven from DC-AC inverter. • Solar-powered hut system design, so several
pumps can operate off the solar panels and battery system at the same time. • Automatically timed
aeration, corresponding to parameters obtained from Alsons Aquaculture, with turn-on at 6 PM and off
at 6 AM the next day. • Cellphone turn-on by local operators using missedcall (drop call) and SMS to
aerator’s Android phone. • LED attractor light incorporated in the aerator design to enhance the oxygen
uptake by attracting the fish (and shrimp) towards the aerator, and enable photosynthesis at 2.5 meters.
2. Design and Development of a Field Server with Sensors and Aeration System 2.1. Field Server and
Aerator System Design The field server is composed of the following sensors: dissolved oxygen
concentration (Clark cell sensors); temperature (NTC thermistors) and conductivity (custom designed
stainless steel rods). The field server is mounted on a floating buoy. The aerator system is composed of
an air compressor powered by a solar panel. Shown in Fig. 1, both the field server and the aerator are
incorporated in a floating platform. Also shown in the figure are the field server powered by its own 50
W solar panel and battery and the aerator powered by four 50 W solar panels and four batteries housed
in a hut nearby the floating system, as the aerator requires more power than the field server. The sensor
electronics consists of an Arduino board and an Android phone for preprocessing of the signal and
telemetry. Together activated with the air compressor is an LED floodlight. 2.2. Field Server and Sensor
Design The water monitoring system records three measurements of water quality: Dissolved Oxygen
(DO) concentration; temperature and conductivity at two depths: 0.5 m and 2.5 m. These two depths
were chosen because previous measurements on this shallow lake (5 m maximum depths) show that
usable DO concentrations do not penetrate lower than 3 m. We measure temperature to watch for
potential thermal gradients that may Fig. 1. Cross-section view of the Lake Palakpakin sensor/actuator
system. The inset on the lower left part of the figure is a zoomed-in detail of the sensors housed inside
the PVC pipe. Fig. 2. One of the authors holding the sensor package before being attached to the floating
field server. The two packages at 0.5 m and 2.5 m house DO, conductivity, and temperature sensors.
cause convection currents that can affect depth dependent DO concentrations. The thermistor circuit is
calibrated by measuring the resistances in water with temperatures ranging from 11.1◦C to 65◦C, cross-
calibrated with thermometers before fielding. The conductivity of the water is measured using a sensor
constructed by the researchers using two stainless-steel rods separated by small displacements (2.2 mm
for 0.5 m sensor and 1.9 mm for 2.5 m sensor) and a 5 kΩ transimpedance for these rods. These
conductivity sensors are tested and calibrated by comparing our results with the range of values for
literature reports on distilled water, tap water and water with soap and then determining the right
range for monitoring lake water [10]. Standard calibration techniques are used with the DO sensors. The
sensor package assembled before attaching to the field server is being held by one of the authors (D.S.)
as shown in Fig. 2. At each depth, the three sensors are 756 Journal of Advanced Computational
Intelligence Vol.18 No.5, 2014 and Intelligent Informatics used inside a protective PVC tube with screen
filters to allow water access with little contamination from solids, such as leaves and algae that can
distort the readings of the sensors and damage from fish which can bite off the wires and parts of the
sensors. These sensors and their respective wires are attached to a 3 m PVC pipe, which in turn is
attached to the buoy housing the monitoring system. This is done so that the stress of the sensors is not
on the wires but on the pipe holding the sensors and the buoy holding the pipe. In the foreground is the
actual floating field server, to which the sensor tube is attached. The field server is actually a buoy with
flotation tubes, and a waterproof case carrying the Arduino board, Android phone, motorcycle battery
and charge controller. Also onboard the field server is the aerator pump and an LED flood lamp. In the
foreground and clearly evident is the 50 W solar panel that powers the sensor system and the
containers for the Arduino, Android phone, charge controller, inverter and air pump. In the background
is the hut and the fish cages where testing is done. Solar panels on the roof of the hut power the aerator
system from batteries and a DC-to-AC inverter drive for the pump located inside the hut. The 6 sensors
give us voltages within a range of 0 to 5 V. Converting these voltages, we get the values in the correct
units. In order to do so, we connect the sensors to a homemade board, which also include an Arduino
PCB and a Bluetooth shield. To avoid errors in the readings, the Arduino is programmed to read the
value coming from a sensor 100 times in one second and then computes the average of these values.
The 6 averaged readings are then transmitted by Bluetooth to our Android phone that we call
transmitter phone, programmed to send these data using a text message to another Android phone
located in Ateneo, that we call receiver phone, which uploads the data to an online database. The data
collected from the sensors are compared and calibrated against ideal aquaculture pond conditions as
maintained in world-class aquaculture operations such as Alsons Aquaculture. 2.3. Aerator Design and
Construction There are several aerator designs for lake management. In principle, they are air pumps or
water pumps [11, 12]. In our first aerator design, we chose the air pump. Together with the water
monitoring system deployed is an aeration system. A 32 W 220 VAC air compressor attached with rigid
air diffusers is used to pump the oxygen to the water in the fish-cage. Working with the air compressor
is a 10 W 220 VAC LED floodlight which serves to attract the fish to the aerated area. A relay circuit,
which is controlled by the same Arduino-Android system controlling the sensors, acts as a switch
between the inverter and the air compressor and LED floodlight. The Arduino-Android controller
automatically switches on the aerator system at 6 PM and then turns it off at 6 AM. However, it can also
be activated or deactivated by the stakeholders, either by sending a specific text message or drop-calling
the Android phone. Fig. 3. Aerator operating with bubbles evident in water. A missed-call (drop call) can
control the aerator on/off. Fig. 4. System diagram of the field server and aerator. The broken-lined
encloses the field server subsystem. They two are linked by the wired connection to the relay, a part of
the field server. The link DT indicates data transmission. Shown in Fig. 3 is a close-up view of the field
server/aerator while it is operating. We are still experimenting with good thermal management, so
reliable pump operation can occur with little intervention. The local operators can turn on and off the
aerators ‘manually’ by SMS or a missed-call (drop call). Included is another 32 W air compressor housed
inside the hut. This can be activated manually for backup purposes in case of non-operation of the main
aerator. 2.4. Power System The energy source of the field server is separate from the aerator (see Fig.
4). This is to enable the field server to operate without interruption due to depletion of energy source by
the active aerator. The sensor system is powered by one 12 V 7 Ah motorcycle battery, which is
connected to a solar charge controller (10 A max), to which also connects a 12 V 50 W solar panel. Both
Arduino microcontroller and Android phone connect to a USB car charger adapter to get power from the
charging system. Both car charger and chargecontroller act as safety features of the field-server,
preventing damage of electronics in case of power surges Vol.18 No.5, 2014 Journal of Advanced
Computational Intelligence 757 and Intelligent Informatics Solpico, D. B. et al. from the battery and the
solar panel. Both air compressor and LED floodlight are powered by 4 50 Ah 2SM car batteries. These
batteries are connected to a two solar charge controllers, two batteries for each which also connect to
four 50 W solar panels, also two panels for each controller. One of these charge controllers is set to
always switch on and connects to a 12 VDC – 220 VAC power inverter, to which the air compressor and
the LED floodlight connect. As shown in the cross-section view (Fig. 1), the electrical power for the
aerator comes from the hut, which houses several solar panels and a battery bank. The 12- volt batteries
in the hut are wired to an AC aerator pump, which runs through a DC-to-AC inverter. In the prototype
we used a 32 W air compressor and a 10 W LED flood lamp, for a total of power consumption of 42 W
per aerator. The power requirement for operating the aerator with solar power has been studied by the
authors. One 2SM battery has a nominal energy capacity of 600 Wh. However, based from one of the
author’s experience, the battery, fully-charged on a good weather (clear sky from 9 AM – 3 PM) by a 50
W solar panel, can only provide 200 Wh energy per day. Therefore, if weather conditions are not
favorable for solar charging, battery can be charged up to as low as 30 W-h. Using this assumption, if we
want to operate the air compressor and the LED for 12 hours straight, the energy requirement is around
504 Wh energy. Therefore, the authors decided to use the said power configuration to provide a
maximum of 800 Wh to the aerator per day. The estimated power requirement of the field server is 3
W, making the 7 Ah battery and 50 W solar panel sufficient to operate the field server 24/7. 3.
Telemetry, Network and Web Application System 3.1. Field Server Telemetry It is very practical to use
mobile technology for the data transmission since the field server is around 80 km away from our
reliable internet server. Fig. 5 shows how the data from the sensors are transferred to the cloud-based
web application. The Arduino microcontroller is programmed to wait for a trigger coming from the
Bluetooth connection to perform the measurements. On the other side of this Bluetooth connection is
our Android phone that we call transmitter phone. Transmitter is continuously running an application.
Every half hour, this application triggers the Arduino to collect the sensor readings through the
Bluetooth, and then receives these readings. Then, it sends this data as text message to another phone
located in Ateneo, which we call receiver phone. In addition, the transmitter phone keeps a backup of all
the data on its micro SD card. One month of data is around 100 KB (one year of data is around 1 MB) so
memory is not an issue. The Receiver is also running its own applicaFig. 5. Diagram of the field server
telemetry. Transfer of data starts from the sensors at the lake and ends at the web application.
Bluetooth, GSM and Wi-Fi are involved in the data transfer. tion, which intercepts the incoming text
message, extracts the content, and then uploads it to an online database using a wireless internet server
in Ateneo. This allows us to have a real-time monitoring of the lake, as the whole process is really fast.
We use SMS for data transmission for several reasons. First, it is very affordable as we pay P200 per
month for unlimited text (Smart promo). The volume of data is very light, it does not require a 3G
connection. In addition, the classic GSM network is way more developed and reliable than the 3G. It is
also available all around the Philippines. 3.2. System Monitoring Website We have coded a website to
display the data saved inside the database. It’s based on PHP, JavaScript and a MySQL. The website uses
a lot of open source frameworks like Bootstrap, Slim, Chart.js, Moment.js, JQuery, etc. The website
displays a graph up to the current readings for the day. There are two plots, one for each sensor depth
(blue – 0.5 m and red – 2.5 m). The graph is displayed is the desired quantity vs time of the day. The site
also displays the current reading of the sensors and what time those readings are taken. For the DO,
there is a horizontal line drawn at 3.2 mg/L, the minimum amount of dissolved oxygen at which the
water is in good condition to support aquaculture [9]. With the use of Google Maps, the website also
displays the location of the sensor. It also indicates when the aerator system is activated and for how
long since it has been activated. People involved in the project can access the website at
www.ateneoprojects.org/projects/palakpakin system0 .php. 4. Results The sensor data can be viewed
on our website (www.ateneoprojects.org), and it shows the DO, con758 Journal of Advanced
Computational Intelligence Vol.18 No.5, 2014 and Intelligent Informatics Solar-Powered Field Server and
Aerator Development Fig. 6. Web display of the DO readings at 0.5 and 2.5 meters during July 10, 2013.
In this date the aerator was turned on around 2:30 PM for two hours, then shut off until the automatic
turn-on at 6 PM. The elevated levels of oxygen overnight result directly from the aerator action. Note
also the very low level of DO at 2.5 meters throughout the day. Fig. 7. Four-day readings (August 2-5,
2013) from website of dissolved oxygen at 0.5 m (blue) and 2.5 m (red) with aerator operation at 1.0 m
depth from 6 PM to 6 Am everyday. ductivity and temperature at different depths over time. Shown in
Fig. 6 is a day’s worth of data for DO – the upper trace (blue) for 0.5 meters and the lower trace (red) for
2.5 meters. Important to note here is that life-sustaining oxygen should at least be at the 3.2 mg/L level,
indicated by the blue horizontal line on the graph. Clearly the 2.5 meter reading indicates a lake in
serious trouble. The action of the aerator is tested by turning on the aerator at around 3 PM for around
two hours and then again at 6 PM overnight. This is clearly indicated by the rise of elevated DO levels
lasting through the night. In our first deployment, the system operation continued for over a month with
DO, conductivity, temperature readings taken at 0.5 m and 2.5 meters. On the website the daily
readings for Aug. 2-5, 2013 can be viewed with updates every 30 minutes. Aerator operations scheduled
from 6 PM to 6 AM everyday, as seen by the higher DO after sundown. Shown in Fig. 7 is a four-day
record of DO as viewed in the site. We show in Fig. 8 air bubbles photographed by our underwater
camera. The aerator stones are a meter below Fig. 8. Rising air bubbles coming from air stones at 1
meter below the surface illuminated by the LED flood lamp. Fig. 9. Pond scum appearing consistently in
Lake Palakpakin for a few hours in the morning. the surface and 60 cm in length, creating a strong flow
of bubbles towards the surface. At night the fish see the bubbles moving upward as illuminated by the
LED flood lamp. This bubble movement adds to the effectiveness of the aerators by attracting fish to the
light and the continuously rising bubble stream. We are presently modeling the aerator performance
enhancement by the use of the LED flood lamp at night. After installation of the LED flood lamp, a spike
in DO readings from the 2.5-meter depth was observed. We hypothesize that phytoplankton react to the
LED light and begin photosynthesis, and thus adding to oxygen concentration in the water. One
interesting observation of the team during the field trials is blue green algae scum appears on the
surface at around 8 AM, lasting until around 10 or 11 AM, when the winds pick up (Fig. 9). This scum
may be rising to the surface as it creates oxygen and later drop to lower depths. This could be why the
DO is really low at 2.5 meters for extended periods. This remains speculative until we do further
investigation but we realize that images of this scum ought to be routinely taken. A multiple aerator-
sensor system design for future deployment is schematically depicted in Fig. 10. The power requirement
for operating several aerators with solar power can be the subject of several engineering tradeoff
studies. If the LED attracts sufficient fish to the aerators at night, the effectivity of the aerators for a
given Vol.18 No.5, 2014 Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence 759 and Intelligent Informatics
Solpico, D. B. et al. Fig. 10. Aerator hut design with sensor system in one of the fish cages. The power
option shown is an AC system with an inverter located in the hut and AC power delivered to the
aerators. A conservative engineering design may require 400 W of solar power to accomplish 12-hour
operation everyday with two aerators alternating between two sites. input power can be increased.
With limited power we can opt to alternating between fish cages in alternate days. This will be the
subject of a further engineering study. This hut design for our future deployments looks schematically
like Fig. 8. The sensor system will be located in a fish cage near the hut and the power grid will feed
several aerators in the adjacent cages. We believe that this is a good engineering target for lake
management systems. The hut-based design for a solar-powered sensor and aerator system shown
above can form the core of a Lake Management System for Philippine Lakes. We envision expanding the
sensor to include light measurement at the surface and 2 meters below. In addition, we will be
deploying a new 24/7 turbidity sensing system for rough measurements of phytoplankton density and a
vision system for fish activity monitoring. 5. Conclusion Water quality monitoring methods have always
been dependent on scientists going to the field and taking measurements at different monitoring
stations. This takes time and effort, not to mention that it hardly ever involves local stakeholder
participation. The development and deployment of an ICT-assisted monitoring system in Lake Palakpakin
presents innovation in water quality monitoring in two ways: (1) through real-time delivery of
information to local stakeholders and researchers in different parts of the world through the Internet;
and (2) it presents the information in simple terms (e.g., DO readings over time) that fishermen
understand and can inform real-time, on-site decision-making; making it a powerful tool in averting fish
kills. We have demonstrated a novel sensor system for Lake Palakpakin that provides sensor data – DO,
temperature, and conductivity in two depths over time. The sensor system has been operated
continuously and reliably for several months. While a lot more engineering work needs to be done, we
already see the benefits of having the DO and conductivity results in assessing the different precursors
to fish kills. This sensor system can be developed as a stand-alone monitoring system for lake
management. In addition we demonstrated a novel aerator system coupled to our sensor system. The
aerators can be programmed to turn on at 6 PM and run until morning and the DO levels clearly respond
to the oxygen being pumped into the water. Several features have been included in our design to
enhance the efficiency of oxygen delivery – an LED flood lamp is included to attract fish to the aerators
and a missed-call (drop call) option for the local operators to turn on the aerators, when signs of oxygen
deficiency are evident. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the leadership of the Lake Palakpakin
FARMC (Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Management Council), Fernando “Pando” Espallardo, his family
and co-workers, for their onsite project support. We would also like to thank Kevin Vicerra, Anica Sy and
Mico Tiglao for their assistance in fabrication, testing and deployment of some of the early aerator
designs. Special thanks to the Seven Lakes FARMCs, the San Pablo office of the Mayor and LGU (local
govt. unit) leaders from the following Barangays: San Buenaventura, Dolores and San Lorenzo. We are
also grateful to the Asia Pacific Telecommunity for their J2 and J3 Programs support as well as the
Ateneo de Manila University for URC (Univ. Research Council) funding. One of the authors is also
grateful for an Ateneo Chair from the Roque Ma. Gonzalez Science Endowment, while another is
indebted to the Philippine DOST (Dept. of Science and Technology) for ERDT support. References: [1] T.
Perez, “Lakeshore community and other stakeholders act to save lakes in peril,” Agenda for hope:
promoting sustainable development: managing water for a sustainable future, F. Dayrit, (Ed.), Quezon
City, Philippines, AdMU, pp. 79-95, 2009. [2] G. S. Jacinto and P. White, “Global review of the impacts of
mariculture and strategies to mitigate these impacts,” Int. Conf. on the Environmental Management of
Aquaculture, 2006. [3] “Managing aquaculture and its impacts: a guidebook for local governments,”
Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources – PHILMINAQ Project, Quezon City, Philippines, 2007. [4] G.
S. Jacinto, “Fish Kill in the Philippines – D´ej`a Vu,” Science Diliman, Vol.23, No.2, pp. 1-3, Jul.-Dec. 2011.
[5] N. R. Hewlett, J. Snow, and J. R. Britton, “The role of management practices in fish kills in recreational
lake fisheries in England and Wales,” Fisheries Management and Ecology, Vol.16, No.3, pp. 248- 254,
May 2009. [6] L. Mhlangal, J. Day, M. Chimbari, N. Siziba, and G. Cronberg, “Observations on
limnological conditions associated with a fish kill of Oreochromis niloticus in Lake Chivero following
collapse of an algal bloom,” African J. of Aquatic Science, Vol.44, No.2, pp. 199- 208, Jun. 2006. [7] A. S.
McInnes and A. Quigg, “Near-Annual Fish Kills in Small Embayments: Casual vs. Causal Factors,” J. of
Coastal Research, Vol.26, No.5, pp. 957-966, Sep. 2010. [8] J. M. Del Rosario, G. C. Mateo, M. M. F.
Villanueva, R. Chua, C. Favila, N. J. C. Libatique, G. L. Tangonan, M. L. Guico, C. Pineda, C. Rodil, D.
Garabiles, N. Conti, R. Tadina, H. Iwata, and A. Kawtrakul, “Deployment of a wireless sensor network for
aquaculture and lake resource management,” Wireless and Mobile Computing, Networking and
Communications (WiMob), 2011 IEEE 7th Int. Conf. on, 10-12 Oct. 2011, pp. 433-438. [9] G. L. Tangonan,
N. J. C. Libatique, C. S. Pineda, H. Iwata, and C. N. Rodil, “Asia Pacific Telecommunity SHARE Project – A
760 Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence Vol.18 No.5, 2014 and Intelligent Informatics Solar-
Powered Field Server and Aerator Development Broadband Farm to Market Ecosystem for Fisherfolk,”
8th Asia Pacific Telecommunication and ICT Development Forum, 2011. [10] “Volunteer Stream
Monitoring: A Methods Manual,,” United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water,
References
N.W., D.C., 1997. [11] J. Kepenyes and L. V´aradi, “Aeration and oxygenation in aquaculture,” Inland
Aquaculture Engineering, FAO, Rome, Italy, ch.21, pp. 473-505, 1984. [12] C. E. Boyd, “Pond water
aeration systems,” Aqucultural Engineering, Vol.18, No.1, pp. 9-40, Jul. 1998. Name: Dominic B. Solpico
Affiliation: M.S. Student, Electronics, Computer and Communications Engineering Department, Ateneo
de Manila University Address: Loyola Heights, Quezon City 1108, Philippines Brief Biographical History:
2012- B.S. Computer Engineering, Ateneo de Manila University Main Works: • D. B. Solpico, N. J. C.
Libatique, G. L. Tangonan, P. M. Cabacungan, G. Girardot, R. M. Macaraig, T. R. Perez, and A. Teran,
“Solar-powered Field Server and Aerator Development for Lake Palakpakin,” 6th Int. Conf. on Humanoid,
Nanotechnology, Information Technology, Communication and Control, Environment, and Management
2013, Manila, 2013. Name: Nathaniel J. C. Libatique Affiliation: ECCE Department and Ateneo Innovation
Center, Ateneo de Manila University Address: Loyola Heights, Quezon City 1108, Philippines Brief
Biographical History: 1986-1990 Instructor, Physics Department, Ateneo de Manila University 1990-1993
Research Assistant and JASCAA Fello, MBE Lab, Waseda University 1993-1996 Instructor, Physics
Department, Ateneo de Manila University 1996-2002 Research Assistant, Center for High Technology
Materials, Univ. of New Mexico 2002-2003 Senior Research Engineer, Kiara Networks and Sterling
Photonics 2003-present Associate Professor, ECCE Department Ateneo de Manila University Main
Works: • He has 78 publications and conference presentations in the fields of optical fiber
communications, optical materials and semiconductors, wireless sensors-systems, networked control
systems and engineering for sustainable development. • He has 2 patents awarded by the US Patent
Office and under the international PCT (Patent Cooperation Treaty) framework on wavelength
selectable and wavelength tunable lasers for optical fiber communications and spectroscopy. • His
current research interests include sensor networks for decision support, such as rain monitoring
techniques for disaster alarm systems, for aquaculture and disaster readiness, as well as applications of
UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles)-based aerial imaging. Membership in Academic Societies: • National
Research Council of the Philippines (NRCP), Engineering Division • Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers (IEEE), Region 10
Solid Waste Management Practices of Select State Universities in CALABARZON, Philippines Amado C.
Gequinto Batangas State University
Malvar Campus, Batangas, Philippines amadogequinto@yahoo.com Date Received: September 13,
2016; Date Revised: November 10, 2016

Abstract –The enactment of the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act prompted higher education
institutions including state universities and colleges (SUCs) to incorporate ecological waste management
in the school system. Thus, this paper aimed to assess the extent of implementation of solid waste
management practices in select SUCs in CALABARZON in terms of waste reuse, waste reduction, waste
collection, waste recycling, waste treatment, and final waste disposal. Respondents of the study
included university administrators, faculty members, non-teaching staff, students and concessionaries
for a total of 341. A survey questionnaire was used to gather data from Batangas State University
(BatState-U), Cavite State University (CavSU), Laguna State Polytechnic University (LSPU) and Southern
Luzon State University (SLSU). Result revealed that solid waste management practices are implemented
to a great extent. Among the practices, waste collection got the highest composite mean particularly on
the promotion of 3Rs (reduce, reuse, recycle) in the collection of waste. On the other hand, waste
recycling and waste treatment obtained the lowest composite mean. In terms of waste recycling,
establishing partnership with local or private business for recyclable recovery program was to moderate
extent. Waste treatment particularly neutralization of acid bases was also of moderate extent. The study
recommended strengthening of publicprivate partnership (PPP) on the recycling and treatment of
wastes.
Keywords – collection, recycling, reduction, reuse, solid waste management

INTRODUCTION Urban solid waste management is considered as one of the most immediate and
serious environmental problems in many of the developing countries [1],[2]. Still, waste collection rates
are often lower than 70 per cent in low-income countries [3]. Environmental degradation is worsened by
the escalating accretion of solid wastes which have been improperly thrown everywhere [4]. Solid
wastes pertain to all unnecessary wastes coming from households, institutions, farming and industries.
Solid wastes have been the problem of rapidly urbanizing communities [5],[6],[7] because of improper
solid waste management practices in terms of waste segregation, collection and transport, waste
disposal and recycling. Dumping of solid wastes had exacerbated the effects of rains, typhoons, and
storms, resulting in impeding water flows and flashfloods [8],[9].Thus, Solid Waste Management (SWM)
remains a pressing environmental issue. To address this environmental issue, the Philippine legislative
bodies decreed RA 9003 or the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act. This Act provides for an
ecological solid waste management program which shall ensure proper segregation, collection,
transport, storage, treatment and disposal of solid waste [10].Moreover, solid waste management is a
form of waste control, often associated with storing, collecting, transporting, processing, and disposing
of solid waste that is in agreement with the codes of conservation, public health, engineering,
economics and other environmental concerns [11]. The implementation and enforcement of the
provisions of this Act shall be the primary responsibility of the Local Government Units (LGUs) within
their respective jurisdictions as stipulated in the RA 7160, otherwise known as the Local Government
Code of 1991. The law also mandates that segregation and collection of solid waste shall be conducted
at the barangay level while collection of non-recyclable materials and special wastes shall be the duty of
the municipality or city [10]. It is the responsibility of LGUs to practice segregation because segregation
facilitates the processing of wastes and substantially decreases the Gequinto, Solid Waste Management
Practices of Select State Universities in CALABARZON, Philippines
_____________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________ 2 P-ISSN 2350-7756 | E-ISSN 2350-8442 | www.apjmr.com Asia Pacific
Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, Vol. 5, No. 1, February 2017 amount of wastes directed to the
dumpsite. Thus, waste source segregation significantly cuts budget allotted to waste collection and
transport which are the most expensive element in the total process of waste management [12]. Aside
from waste segregation, solid waste management practices include house to house evaluation,
consolidation of the evaluation results, record keeping of SWM violators per purok and penalizing
violators through community service and fines. More importantly, some LGUs have enacted municipal
solid waste management ordinances, constructed waste depository or redemption centers, conducted
training on vermi-composting, prohibited open dumping and organized information, education and
communication campaign in all puroks about SWM program [13]. Yet, studies revealed that many LGUs
still struggle in the implementation of SWM [14] [15] [16] since SWM has not been among the top
priorities in most LGUs [17]. Therefore, to achieve sustainable solid wastes management lack of
awareness, technical knowledge, legislation policies, and strategies should be adequately addressed [18]
[9]. In the full implementation of the Act, different stakeholders including the academe are mandated to
take responsibility in the SWM. Part 6, Rule 21, Section 2 of RA 9003 mandates the Department of
Education (DepEd), Commission on Higher Education (CHED to include ecological solid waste
management in the school systems at all levels, to actively engage school administrators, teaching and
non-teaching staff, and studentry in school-wide and nearby community waste management actions,
and to strengthen waste management content in the curricula. In addition, state colleges and
universities are also mandated to assist in the LGU’s extension system by improving their effectiveness
and efficiency through capability-building and complementary extension activities [19]. In compliance to
the RA 9003, the National Solid Waste Management Commission (NSWMC) established a
comprehensive approach in “Mainstreaming Ecological Solid Waste Management in the Philippine
Educational System Project” among private educational institutions. This project was spearheaded by
the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) with the end goal of enhancing the
capacity of students’ waste management through an Ecological Solid Waste Management Training
Program. Through this project, students, teachers, and school administrators were empowered to create
their own school-based solid waste management program[20]. With this cooperation of different public
educational programs on waste management, waste minimization and recycling could be successful [21]
[7]. However, a study revealed that among sources of wastes universities ranked second in generating
biodegradable waste and was the top producer of recyclable materials where most of the wastes were
related to instruction process [9]. Thus, this study assessed the extent of implementation of solid waste
management practices in select state universities (SUs) in CALABARZON in terms of waste reuse, waste
reduction, waste collection, waste recycling, waste treatment, and final waste disposal. There were
many studies conducted on the level of implementation among LGUs SWM plan. However, only few
have delved on school-based SWM, particularly among SUs in CALABARZON area. This study would be
significant in producing baseline data for policy makers and SUCs management to look deeper into the
problem which is normally associated to urbanization. Since CALABARZON is a rapidly urbanized region
[22], and cities are the nexus for the production of increasing quantity and complexity of wastes, while
municipalities cannot cope with the accelerated pace of waste production [3], it is worth studying the
extent of SUs implementation of RA 9003 in their respective areas.
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

This study assessed the extent of implementation of solid waste management practices in select state
universities (SUs) in CALABARZON in terms of waste reuse, waste reduction, waste collection, waste
recycling, waste treatment, and final waste disposal.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The respondents of the study were purposively selected based on the following criteria: (1) they must
be practicing solid waste management, (2) they must be a state university in CALABARZON, (3) they
must be willing to take part in the study. After considering the set criteria, the qualified respondents
were Batangas State University Main Campus I in Batangas City, Cavite State University main Campus in
Indang, Laguna State Polytechnic University Main Campus in Sta. Cruz, and Southern Luzon State
University Main Campus in Lucban. To determine the sample size, Slovin’s formula was used with a
margin error of 0.05 [23].

Table 1. Respondents from the four state universities in CALABARZON State University Administration &
Faculty Non-teaching Staff Students Concessionaires Total Batangas State University 14 25 24 6 69
Cavite State University 11 24 30 6 71 Laguna State Polytechnic University 18 14 57 10 99 Southern Luzon
Polytechnic University 15 17 58 12 102 Total 341 Then stratified sampling was employed to get the size
proportional to each group (administration and faculty, non-teaching staff, students, and
concessionaires) within each stratum- the four state universities. The breakdown is presented in Table 1.
A researcher-made questionnaire to assess the extent of implementation of SWM practices was
validated by experts in the field: Environment and Natural Resources Officers from Malvar and Batangas
City and Environmental Management Unit Director. The questionnaire was divided into six parts namely:
waste reuse, waste reduction, waste collection, waste recycling, waste treatment, and final waste
disposal, with five statements for each. The survey useda fivepoint Likert scale with the following
interpretation: Implemented to a very great extent (VGE): 4.20 – 5.00 ; Implemented to a great extent
(GE): 3.40 – 4.19 ; Implemented to a moderate extent (ME): 2.60 – 3.39 ; Implemented to a least great
extent (LGE): 1.80 – 2.59 ; Not at all implemented (NI): 1.00 – 1.79 Data collection started with the
request sent to SU presidents to conduct the study in June 2014. Approval of the said request took a
month. Survey forms were given in August and retrieved in September. Data were tallied and
statistically analyzed using weighted mean. Then, published and unpublished materials were reviewed
including newspaper and online journal articles and reports on SWM.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION School-based solid waste management practices are measures to
observe,implement and ensure proper waste disposal because the largest fraction of municipal waste is
generated from paper cardboard and other schoolrelated materials [24]. Thus, institutions like schools,
private and state universities have to model responsible solid waste management in terms of waste re-
use, waste reduction, waste collection, waste recycling, waste treatment, and final waste disposal. Table
2 shows that in general waste re-use was implemented to a great extent. Among SUs, SLPU’s
implementation was to a great extent (3.71) while CvSU practiced waste re-use to a moderate extent
(3.26). This means that waste re-use practices should be intensified. Among the waste re-use practices,
maintenance of material recovery facility (MRF) ranked first (3.6) while conversion of paper waste into
cooking fuel ranked the least(3.37). Table 2.Extent of implementation of solid waste management
practices in terms of waste re-use Re-Use BatStateU CvSU LSPU SLPU Overall WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R
WM VI R WM VI R 1. Paper waste is converted into paper pulp which can be used as cooking fuel 3.57
GE 5 3.1 ME 5 3.49 GE 2.5 3.32 ME 5 3.37 ME 5 2. Scrap iron and materials collected are sold by and
utilize/spend for the maintenance of the recovery facilities 3.79 GE 1 3.31 ME 2 3.49 GE 2.5 3.8 GE 2.5
3.6 GE 1 3. Enhance partnership with the industry, academic and community groups to reuse recycled
materials 3.69 GE 2 3.26 ME 3 3.56 GE 1 3.8 GE 2.5 3.58 GE 2 4. Recycables processing is conducted to
ensure that the diverted materials are recovered and reused locally 3.6 GE 4 3.2 ME 4 3.18 ME 4.5 3.83
GE 1 3.45 GE 4 5.Use compostable wastes in the production of organic fertilizers 3.62 GE 3 3.41 GE 1
3.18 ME 4.5 3.79 GE 4 3.5 GE 3 Compositemean 3.65 GE 3.26 ME 3.46 GE 3.71 GE 3.52 GE Gequinto,
Solid Waste Management Practices of Select State Universities in CALABARZON, Philippines
_____________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________ 4 P-ISSN 2350-7756 | E-ISSN 2350-8442 | www.apjmr.com Asia Pacific
Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, Vol. 5, No. 1, February 2017 This means that all SUs have
maintained MRF but not all of them have utilized paper waste into cooking fuel. Thus, paper charcoal
technology must be implemented as part of SUs SWM practices. This technology must be adopted by
SUs since most of their wastes are papers from instructional materials. In terms of waste reduction,
overall implementation of SUs is to a great extent (3.79), SLPU has the highest (4.25) and CvSU has the
lowest mean (3.5). This means that CvSU’s organic waste for animal feed should be improved and waste
generators should be more informed about their waste characterization. Among the five indicators,
source reduction of waste generation ranked first, followed by shredding of paper waste which is the
most common waste among universities [24], while organic waste turned into animal feed ranked last.
This means that SUs have to adapt technology like vermicomposting to convert organic waste into feed
for African Night Crawler (ANC) or simply collect and sell organic waste to a piggery [25]. This can be
done because higher percentage of waste generated in the Philippines is made up of organics [2]. In
addition, non-household sources like universities generate most of biodegradable wastes [9]. Table
3.Extent of implementation of solid waste management practices in terms of waste reduction Source
reduction BatStateU CvSU LSPU SLPU Overall WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R 1. Minimize
source of waste generation for significant environmental impact 3.93 GE 2 3.88 GE 2 3.7 GE 2 4.11 GE 1
3.9 GE 1 2. The University organic waste: including waste from the canteens are often collected for
animal feed 3.81 GE 3 3.2 ME 5 3.49 GE 5 3.9 GE 4 3.6 GE 5 3. The waste generators are informed about
waste characterization 3.75 GE 5 3.25 ME 4 3.58 GE 4 3.96 GE 3 3.63 GE 4 4. Shredding of waste is done
to reduce solid waste in the University 3.77 GE 4 4.19 GE 1 3.6 GE 3 3.87 GE 5 3.86 GE 2 5. The
institutional "no littering policy" is strictly implemented in the University 3.97 GE 1 3.48 GE 3 3.9 GE 1
4.06 GE 2 3.85 GE 3 Compositemean 3.77 GE 3.5 GE 3.65 GE 4.25 GE 3.79 GE Table 4.Extent of
implementation of solid waste management practices in terms of waste source collection Source
Collection BatStateU CvSU LSPU SLPU Overall WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R 1. Promote
the "3R's"(reduce, reuse, and recycle) locally when collecting solid waste 4.11 GE 1 3.68 GE 1 3.90 GE 1
4.45 VGE 1 4.03 GE 1 2. The solid wastes are collected daily at designated area 3.83 GE 3 3.59 GE 2 3.67
GE 3 4.24 VGE 3 3.83 GE 2 3. The solid wastes are properly handled by collectors and other personnel
who are equipped with protective equipment 3.81 GE 4.5 3.57 GE 3 3.71 GE 2 4.18 GE 4 3.82 GE 3 4. The
solid waste segregated and placed in separate containers with marking for re-use, recycling and
composting 3.81 GE 4.5 3.41 GE 4 3.57 GE 5 4.34 VGE 2 3.78 GE 4 5. There is MRF for segregation,
processing and or buying area for recycables 3.88 GE 2 3.29 ME 5 3.62 GE 4 4.06 GE 5 3.71 GE 5
Compositemean 3.85 GE 3.50 GE 3.69 GE 4.25 GE 3.82 GE Gequinto, Solid Waste Management Practices
of Select State Universities in CALABARZON, Philippines
_____________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________ 5 P-ISSN 2350-7756 | E-ISSN 2350-8442 | www.apjmr.com Asia Pacific
Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, Vol. 5, No. 1, February 2017 Table 4 shows that implementation of
SWM practice in terms of waste source collection among SUs is to a great extent. Promotion of the
“3R’s” obtained the highest rank while the presence of MRF for segregation, processing and buying
ranked the least. This means that respondents from the SUs are well informed and oriented about
“3R’s.” However, MRF should not just be visible but operationally marketable since recyclable wastes
are also highly generated [2] and can highly provide income as buying area for recyclables. In addition,
MRF is essential to advance recycling facility [9] because wastes are segregated for proper collection,
process, and disposal. Recycling is the method of waste disposal people would want to put into use [24].
However, Table 5 shows that implementation of waste recycling though to a great extent, is still the
lowest (3.49) among the SWM practices. In particular, CvSU moderately implemented recycling with the
lowest mean (3.05). Among SUs applied recyclable collection was to a great extent with a highest mean
of 3.58 while establishment of partnership with local or private business for recyclable recovery program
was to a moderate extent. This means that SUs have not fully looked into possibilities of transforming
waste into resources by boosting the recycling industry [2]. SUs have not fully utilized the MRF and still
lack coordination with private business such as junkshop for turning trash into cash. If MRF is
maximized, in this way, generation of resources as the fourth function of SUs mandated by CHED is
performed. When it comes to waste treatment, SUs' implementation is still to a great extent though
neutralisation of acid bases is to a moderate extent. This is because acid base neutralisation requires
compliance to LGUs’ sanitary and sewerage system. Another reason is SUs limited operations, if not
lacking, of Environmental Health and Safety Office that takes care of this acidbase neutralization. It can
be gleaned also from Table 6 that CvSU garnered the lowest mean (3.31) for its moderately extent
implementation of the waste treatment indicators. It is followed by BatStateU (3.35). This means that
waste treatment as a SWM practice is seldom performed because waste generated are usually re-used,
reduced, and recycled, not really treated as in having waste water treatment facility. Table 5.Extent of
implementation of solid waste management practices in terms of waste recycling Recycling BatStateU
CvSU LSPU SLPU Overall WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R 1. The "Recycable Collection" is
applied for recycle materials and ready for manufacturing process 3.73 GE 1 2.96 ME 5 3.69 GE 1 3.96
GE 1 3.58 GE 1 2. Collected plastic containers are processed into functional articles (e.g.,
ables/monoblock souvenirs) 3.46 GE 5 3.13 ME 1.5 3.66 GE 2 3.73 GE 5 3.49 GE 3 3. Sufficient recycling
facilities with market opportunity for recycled products are given emphasis 3.62 GE 3 2.97 ME 4 3.49 GE
3 3.81 GE 3 3.47 GE 4 4. The recyclables marketing is done by the person concerned to encourage
market development in recycable products 3.67 GE 2 3.13 ME 1.5 3.45 GE 4 3.85 GE 2 3.52 GE 2 5.
Establishing partnership with local or private business for recycable recovery program 3.58 GE 4 3.04 ME
3 3.18 ME 5 3.75 GE 4 3.39 ME 5 Compositemean 3.61 GE 3.05 ME 3.49 GE 3.82 GE 3.49 GE Gequinto,
Solid Waste Management Practices of Select State Universities in CALABARZON, Philippines
_____________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________ 6 P-ISSN 2350-7756 | E-ISSN 2350-8442 | www.apjmr.com Asia Pacific
Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, Vol. 5, No. 1, February 2017 Table 6.Extent of implementation of
solid waste management practices in terms of waste treatment Treatment BatStateU CvSU LSPU SLPU
Overall WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R 1. Hazardous wastes are treated according to
existing law of the DENR and DOH 3.81 GE 1 3.41 GE 2 3.66 GE 1 3.79 GE 4 3.67 GE 1 2. The special
wastes such as print cartridges, electronic parts, paint, thinner, whiteboard markers, laboratory waste
and medical wastes are treated properly 3.57 GE 2 3.2 ME 4 3.56 GE 3 3.83 GE 2 3.54 GE 2 3. Acid bases
are neutralized 3.24 ME 3 3.48 GE 1 3.12 ME 5 3.73 GE 5 3.39 ME 5 4. All items contaminated with
potentially infectious materials are treated through sterilization 3.03 ME 5 3.19 ME 5 3.6 GE 2 3.82 GE 3
3.41 GE 4 5. Treatment for special waste is managed by professional and laboratory personnel 3.1 ME 4
3.29 ME 3 3.5 GE 4 3.86 GE 1 3.44 GE 3 Compositemean 3.35 ME 3.31 ME 3.49 GE 3.81 GE 3.49 GE Table
7.Extent of implementation of solid waste management practices in terms of waste disposal Treatment
BatStateU CvSU LSPU SLPU Overall WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R WM VI R 1. Contracting with
private/public hauler for solid waste disposal 3.65 GE 3 3.35 ME 1 3.62 GE 2 3.84 GE 3 3.61 GE 1 2.
Setting up cooperative to managed solid waste operations 3.63 GE 4 3.30 ME 2 3.53 GE 5 3.88 GE 7 3.58
GE 3 3. Collected broken glassware are disposed in a right box that is marked as "broken glassware" 3.87
GE 1 3.19 ME 4 3.63 GE 1 3.64 GE 5 3.58 GE 3 4. Engineering appropriate processing equipment and
technically viable and environmentally sound recycling and re-use process 3.71 GE 2 3.16 ME 5 3.60 GE 3
3.73 GE 4 3.55 GE 5 5. Remaining solid waste brought and disposed in city or municipal landfill 3.62 GE 5
3.24 ME 3 3.56 GE 4 3.90 GE 1 3.58 GE 3 Compositemean 3.69 GE 3.24 ME 3.58 GE 3.79 GE 3.57 GE
Gequinto, Solid Waste Management Practices of Select State Universities in CALABARZON, Philippines
_____________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________ 7 P-ISSN 2350-7756 | E-ISSN 2350-8442 | www.apjmr.com Asia Pacific
Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, Vol. 5, No. 1, February 2017 Improper waste disposal is one of the
problems in the country [9]. However, Table 7 illustrates that SUs in CALABARZON implemented waste
disposal to a great extent. They have contracted private/public hauler for solid waste disposal to a great
extent. Yet, engineering appropriate processing equipment and technically viable and environmentally
sound recycling and re-use process has to be improved since it ranks the least among the five indicators.
Nevertheless, SW cannot be easily solved by engineering or innovative technology since there are still
other issues to be considered for a sound environmental governance [26]. One of which is compliance to
existing national laws or local ordinances in the city or municipal level. If there is compliance, monitoring
of how these laws are implemented is the usual problem

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The responsibility of SUs in the implementation of SWM is clearly stipulated in RA 9003. In compliance
to this mandate, SUs along with the officials, faculty members, staff, and studentry have implemented
SWM. Though SUs in CALABARZON practiced SWM to a great extent in terms of waste re-use, reduce,
collection, recycling, treatment and disposal, there are still rooms for improvement. Practices for waste
recycling and treatment need more careful planning to convert waste to resources or make cash out of
trash particularly in the recycling process. Thus, it is recommended that for recycling to be effective,
functional and marketable MRF should be put up in the university to attract recycling entrepreneurs.
With the MRF, partnership with local or private recycling business would be established. This
partnership would bring additional finances for the university utility workers who themselves collect and
segregate wastes. Then, identification of appropriate technology based on the waste generated and
collected would be easy. It would be better also if a recycling campaign once a week would be initiated
by the Supreme Student Council (SSC) for the stud entry to take part, embrace, and live the recycling
advocacy. For the waste treatment, it would be better if a treatment facility would be invented by
students through their undergraduate research. A treatment facility for special wastes like ink
cartridges, paint, thinner, whiteboard markers, and others would really lessen and convert this waste
into resources. This would surely be a cost-effective measure for the university.

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Govindaraju, M., Macklin Rani, L.,Rajina, C., and Selvaraj, M. (2011). Integrated Waste Management in
Urban Areas using GeographicInformation System (GIS). A paper presented in the International
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Philippines: Initiatives to Promote Waste Segregation and Recycling through Good Governance. Kojima
and Michida ed., Economic Integration and Recycling in Asia: An Interim Report,
ChosakenkyuHokokusho, Institute of Developing Economies [3] Modak, Prasad (2010). Chapter 5-
Municipal Solid Waste Management: Turning waste into Resources. Shanghai Manual – A Guide for
Sustainable Urban Development in the 21st Century. United Nations. [4] Arias, Priscila, R.(1998).Most
Efficient Means of Waste Management, Manila Bulletin. [5] Ogbonna, D. N., Amangabara, G. T., &Ekere,
T. O. (2007). Urban solid waste generation in Port Harcourt metropolis and its implications for waste
management. Management of Environmental Quality, 18(1), 71- 88.doi:10.1108/147778307 10717730
[6] Ramachandra, T. V., &Bachamanda, S. (2007). Environmental audit of municipal solid waste
management.International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, 7, 369-391.
Retrieved from https://goo.gl/j7ZBPZ [7] Khanal, Bhoj Raj &Souksavath, Bounsouk (2015).
Environmental Management Measures and Current Practices in Solid Waste Management: A Case Study
from Vientiane, Lao People’s DemocraticRepublic, Journal of GMS Development Studies, 2 (69-89).
https://goo.gl/4NQ7sD [8] Al-Khatib, I. A., Monou, M., Abu Zahra, A. S.,Shaheen, H. Q., &Kassinos, D.
(2010).Solid waste characterization, quantification andmanagement practices in developing countries. A
case study: Nablusdistrict– Palestine. Journal of Environmental Management, 91(5),1131-8.doi:
10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.01.003 [9] Matunog, Victoria E. & Awa, Anthony L. (2013) Solid Waste
Generation Rate in Ozamiz City, Philippines.Journalof Multidisciplinary
Studies,doi:10.7828/jmds.v2i1.396 [10] Republic Act (R A) 9003. “Ecological Solid Waste Management
Act of 2000” http://emb.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/RA9003.pdf [11] Robles, A.C.M. (2015).
Solid Waste Pollution: Basis for Closure Enforcement Policy Framework of Banualan Dumpsite in General
Santos City, Philippines. Journal of Ecology and Conservation, 13,
 POPULATION, DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE PHILIPPINES: AN INTRODUCTION TO THIS
ISSUE
Cecile Joaquin-Yasay and Eric R. Jensen*
December 2016

The past several decades in the Philippines have been characterized by a set of stylized facts: population
increase, income per capita increase (although less steadily than population), and environmental
degradation, including air and water pollution and overuse of natural resources, such as timber and
fisheries. Are these developments linked in some causal fashion, or are they merely manifold outcomes
of the underlying process of "development"? The Malthusian perspective is that resources Limit
population growth. Malthus said that increasing numbers of people put increasing pressure on the
availability of land to provide food. As more and more labor is applied to fixed quantities of land, the
marginal product of labor falls below subsistence, making population growth self-limiting. The maximum
sustainable population size is determined by the stock of agricultural land available. The more general
neo-Malthusian notion says that members of a population require a certain amount of resources, be
they agricultural land or other natural resources. This implies that increases in population size will carry
concomitant demands on natural resources. Therefore, there is a clear causal flow from population
growth to environmental degradation. Furthermore, the process of development is resource intensive,
requiring increasing resources per capita as it proceeds. Population growth and economic development
occurring together are, therefore, seen to be especially harmful to the environment. Explicitly or not,
the maintained view is that the area under study has a finite carrying capacity that is close * This
introductory article was prepared with the assistance of Rhodora M. Roy-Raterta and Ronaldo J.
Oblepias. Ms. Yasay is Executive Director of the Philippine Commission on Population while Dr. Jensen is
currently with the Economics Department faculty of the College of William & Mary, Williamsburg,
Virginia. 198 JOURNAL OF PHILIPPINEDEVELOPMENT enough to actual or feasible population size to be
worrisome. The "Limits to Growth" model of Meadows et al. (1972) is an example of this logic taken to
the extreme. 1 Malthusian predictions have not always been good indicators of long-run outcomes.
Since Malthus wrote, in Europe, the notion that the available quantity of agricultural land limited
population size clearly did not hold, in part because, as economic development proceeded, nonlabor
inputs played an increasing important role in agricultural production. Europe is now far more densely
populated than when Malthus was writing at the turn of the 19th century. Moreover, while some
resource constraints bound very tightly while economic development of Europe proceeded, others did
not. This suggests that specific resources may be especially pressed, and therefore that a sectoral
analysis of the various relationships between population, development and environment is warranted. A
well-known exponent of a general pattern of adaptation to population growth is Boserup (1965). She
argues that increases in population density forced the adaptation of more labor-intensive technologies.
For example, at early stages of agricultural development, population growth forced land to be cycled
more and more rapidly through slash-and-burn. Eventually, adverse environmental consequences, in the
form of lower crop yields, forced farmers to adopt forms of agriculture with different environmental
consequences, breaking the rigid tie between population density and environmental change. While
some have tried to adapt this process to a specific explanation of the recent history of population
growth (e.g,, Simon 1981), this has proven difficult to accomplish. Adoption of changes which are
beneficial in the long run often are stalled short-run costs, and efforts to break down observed costs
into short-run and long-run have been arbitrary enough, to leave many observers agnostic. Nonetheless,
the concept that the relationship between population growth and other outcomes, such as income or
environmental change, is not rigid or unidirecticnal, is important. Bilsborrow (1992) has extended this
notion to allow for changes in cultivated area, technology or population (through changes in fertility or
migration) in response to population growth. These changes are contingent upon government policy,
foreign demand for output, land tenure, and infrastructure. This 1, Sanderson(1994) has an
excellentsummaryof the mechanicsof this an_ other simulationmodels. YASAYAND JENSEN: AN
INTRODUCTION 199 suggests a complicated modeling procedure, in which the subtle interactions
between a number of different actors in the society, together with the natural processes governing
renewal of natural resources, play roles. Quantitative assessments of such a model rely on simulation. In
Lutz et al. (1994), an attempt at this sort of model is described. A group of researchers headed by a team
from the international Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) developed a multisectoral model of
the Mauritian population, economy and environment, which they referred to as the PDE (for Population,
Development, Environment) model. The researchers began with detailed studies of various "problem
areas," which in Mauritius were thought to include p.opulation distribution, access to fresh water, and
beach cleanliness. Using the baseline information gathered, they next used standard demographic
forecasting techniques and an input-output model of the economy, together with models of land use
and fresh water systems, to describe a plausible set of future scenarios over the period 1990-2050. They
were able to identify problem areas, both geographic and substantive. For example, they found that
regions of Mauritius were likely to face fresh water shortages early in the 21 st century. It was in this
context that the Commission on Population (POPCOM) took up the PDE question in the Philippines. In
1994, a group of demographic, economic and environmental experts from IIASA, the Philippines, and the
East-West Center met under the auspices of POPCOM, the Program on Population of the East-West
Center, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to discuss the
implementation of a PDE model for the Philippines. The central goal of the conference was to assess
whether the intensive modeling exercise undertaken by IIASA in Mauritius, a single island with a
population of roughly one million, was feasible in a country like the Philippines, an extensive archipelago
with a population of over 60 million. Physical environment, economic infrastructure, and population
characteristics show substantial variation in the Philippines, and given that the Mauritius model had
taken more than a year to complete, this diversity was a real source of concern. A possible approach
considered at this meeting was to focus efforts initially on a restricted geographic area of the country.
Cebu, because of data availability and the presence of significant environmental problems (including
significant deforestation, development of steeply sloping land, and fresh water shortages), was viewed
as the most likely locale for undertaking a pilot study. 200 JOURNAL OF PHILIPPINEDEVELOPMENT The
Philippines has a large and active scholarly community. While no work had been done on modeling the
full set of PDE interactions in the Philippines, a great deal of work had been done on many of the
separate components. A key element of assessing the feasibility of PDE modeling in the Philippines,
therefore, involved assessing the current state of knowledge on population, development and
environment separately (and in pairs). Most of the papers in this volume were prepared as background
for that conference, and those that were not part of the conference bear directly on these issues. The
first two papers set the stage. Flieger describes the demographic situation in the Philippines, with
special reference to findings from the 1990 Census and the most recent intercensal period (1980-90).
Highlights include the finding that the absolute number of farmers, fishers and forest workers declined
slightly between 1980 and 1990. Because of the large number of labor force entrants in the decade,
however, the share of the labor force in these occupations fell from almost half in 1980 to less than one-
third in 1990. An important question for a PDE analysis to address is whether this is driven by a shortage
of the natural resources needed for individuals to engage in these occupations, or because earnings
opportunities had increased in other sectors. The decade in question is one of increasing urbanization.
Flieger shows that, in fact, roughly half of the increase in population in urban areas occurred not
because of migration but because of continuing urbanization. This urban sprawl is exactly the sort of
demographic phenomenon that is likely to have significant environmental consequences, and, therefore
a candidate for inclusion in PDE modeling efforts. Orbeta surveys existing forecasting models for the
Phil:ippines. One recipe for building a full PDE model is to begin with a model of population and
development, and then add environmental interactions. 20rbeta discusses several promising
alternatives in the process of developing a methodological discussion on economicdemographic
modeling. He also discusses several models of development and environmental change. These are
sometimes "computable general equilibrium" models, and sometimes less computationally demanding
(but typically less aggregated) models such as input-output models. He finds no detailed models of
population-environment interactions. This is perhaps an indication that 2. This is not' the tack taken by
the IIASA modelers, who developed a relatively simple economic model based on an input-output table,
YASAYAND JENSEN: AN INTRODUCTION 201 the population-environment nexus, so intuitively plausible
as a motivation for undertaking PDE analysis, is indirect enough to require a full-blown PDE analysis in
order to isolate its impact. In other words, Orbeta presents some sense of how population affects
development, and separately, how development affects the environment. Apparently, a key task of PDE
modelers will be to pull these two strands together. The rest of the papers highlight economic-
demographicenvironmental "hot spots." Padilla analyzes water quality and fisheries, with specific
emphasis on the role of human population and overfishing on yields. He presents results that highlight
the geographic diversity of the Philippines. For example, in areas where the density of fishers is high,
yields average less than 15 percent compared to areas where the density of fishers .is lower. Padilla
describes fishing as the employment of last resort. One of the very clear implications for PDE modeling is
that, to the extent that job creation is not sufficient to provide for new members of the population,
fisheries will suffer. Padilla also discusses the causes and implications of the long-term secular decline in
fisheries yields. Padilla also devotes substantial attention to the relationship between population growth
and water quality. The evidence indicates that water quality is declining. Less clear in the literature
surveyed by Padilla are the relative contributions of population and economic growth to the decline.
Padilla and Janssen continue with a related issue, the costs and benefits of mangrove preservation.
Mangroves form important fish hatcheries, prevent coastal erosion, and provide timber resources. On
the other hand, they limit land access to coastal areas, and are often cleared to make fishponds. Padilla
and Janssen discuss the implications of policies to stem the loss of mangrove coverage. They establish
possible linkages between development and population growth, and environmental impacts. To urban
dwellers in the Philippines, perhaps the most obvious PDE relationship is the link from population and
economic development to air and water pollution. Israel examines the interaction of industrialization
and environmental degradation in a case study of Cebu, with particular attention to the role of
government policy. Policy can be either that which is designed to lure investment or that which is
intended to limit the potential environmental degradation accompanying subsequent industrialization.
He finds that some industries are more harmful to the environment than others, but that in general, the
process of industrialization has significantly harmed the environment of Cebu. Israel also finds that
government attempts to limit pollution have 202 JOURNAL OF PHILIPPINEDEVELOPMENT met with little
success. His paper has clear implications for/(he role of economic development on the environment, and
provides useful data for incorporating the sort of development-environmen t modeling discussed by
Orbeta into a full PDE model for Cebu. Finally, Amacher and Hyde establish the relationship between
population growth and migration. They create a model of the determinants of migration, with special
emphasis on the characteristics of the receiving regions. Typically, economic models of migration show
that measures of economic opportunity at the destination and travel costs play important roles. The
Amacher and Hyde study is no exception in this regard. It shows that, for example, destinations with
higher than average household incomes or smaller than average proportions of populations living in
poverty draw many immigrants. However, Amacher and Hyde also use more environmentally based
measures of economic opportunity at the destination, such as the share of forest land classified as
public (and, therefore potentially available to be appropriated by migrants), or the share of forest land
on steep grades. In a model of deforestation that is partially driven by immigration to forested areas, the
indirect consequences of population growth and lack of economic opportunity in the sending regions
are of i_portance. The notion that the population, development and environment components of the
PDE model must be treated in disaggregated fashion is reinforced by empirical findings such as these,
which relate to specific migration flows between narrowly defined areas. These papers offer tantalizing
glimpses of the sorts of questions that could be addressed with a more complete specification of a PDE
model for the Philippines. For example, what would be the environmental consequences of increased
manufacture of a product in demand on world markets? Amacher and Hyde might predict that
migration to upland areas would be diverted to urban manufacturing centers, improving upland
environmental quality, and Padilla might predict beneficial consequences for fisheries, depending on
how the demand for fish responds to higher incomes. However, migration to urban areas instead of
uplands, according to Padilla and to Israel, would further decrease environmental quality in urban areas.
Furthermore,'a result of modern-sector employment, especially for women, is lower fertility. This could
imply reduced future urban pollution, compared to a scenario without increased manufacturing output,
if population size (or density) alone is an important determinant of urban pollution. A complete PDE
model would go a long way toward pulling together a unified answer to this sort of multifaceted
question.

REFERENCES.....
Bilsborrow, R. "Population Growth, Internal Migration, and Environmental Degradation in Rural Areas of
Developing Countries." European Journal of Population, 8 (1992): 125-48. Boserup, E. The Conditions of
Agricultural Growth. Chicago: Aldine, 1965. Lutz, Wofgang, ed. Population-Development-Environment:
Understanding Their Interactions in Mauritius. Berlin: Spring-Verlag, 1994. Meadows, D. H. , D. L.
Meadows, J. Randers, and W. W. Behrens III. The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books, 1972.
Sanderson, W. C. "Simulation Models of Demographic, Economic and Environmental Interactions." In
Population-DevelopmentEnvironment: Understanding Their Interactions in Mauritius edited by
Wolfgang Lutz. Berlin: Spring-Verlag, 1994. Simon, J. L. The Ultimate Resource. Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 1981.
Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines: Case and Policy Analysis of the People’s
Survival Fund

Maria Angela G. Zafra

Ateneo de Davao University and Strategic Development Research Institute, Inc.
angiezafra@gmail.com
March 2015

Abstract

The Philippines has consistently been extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Due to its
location in the Western Pacific, much of the country is exposed to more frequent and increasingly
intense natural disasters. The Philippines experiences on average twenty tropical typhoons annually and
usually is among the countries with the people placed at risk due to seasonal weather events. This
makes climate change a concern for most Filipinos. In response, the Philippine government has crafted
several policies related to climate change adaptation. One of these is the People’s Survival Fund (PSF), a
one-billion-peso fund established in 2014 as a supplemental fund for local government units and
community organizations. The PSF aims to finance the implementation of long-term projects that will
build resiliency to the effects of climate change amongst municipalities. This paper will present and
analyze a case involving the People’s Survival Fund to identify enablers and challenges in the utilization
of this fund. Furthermore, a policy analysis of the PSF itself will be conducted to evaluate the strengths
and gaps of the policy. Finally, the paper seeks to make policy recommendations based on the analysis.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, and climate finance this paper is still developing. It has the
beginnings of the policy analysis but I still have to write the case analysis part

Introduction

An archipelagic nation composed of 7,107 islands, the Philippines has consistently been extremely
vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Alave, 2011; Fisher, 2013; Ranada, 2014). Due to its location
in the Western Pacific, much of the country is exposed to more frequent and increasingly intense natural
disasters (Climate Change Commission Philippines, n.d.; Hiwasaki, Luna, Syamsidik, & Marçal, 2015). The
Philippines experiences on average twenty tropical typhoons annually and ranks third globally in terms
of people placed at risk to seasonal weather events (Climate Change Commission Philippines, 2010;
Peñalba, Elazegui, Pulhin, & Cruz, 2012). Moreover, sixteen of the Philippines’ eighteen provinces are
amongst the fifty most vulnerable provinces within East Asia (Saldivar-Sali, 2016). This makes climate
change a concern for most Filipinos. This paper aims to examine the socio-economic effects of climate
change on the most vulnerable groups in the Philippine. It also endeavors to identify the different
climate change adaptation policies that have been crafted by the Philippine government. A policy
analysis on one of these policies, the People’s Survival Fund, is done to evaluate the strengths and gaps
of said policy. Finally, the paper seeks to make policy recommendations based on the analysis. Socio-
Economic Effects of Climate Change Since the Philippines is primarily an agricultural country, natural
disasters often have devastating socio-economic impacts to rural municipalities. Saldivar-Sali (2016)
estimates that 78.7% percent of Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) is placed at risk due to
typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural hazards. Furthermore, a significant number of Filipinos are
affected killed, displaced or affected by natural disasters each year. As an illustration, Typhoon Haiyan
resulted in 6,300 lives lost, US$ 25 million in agricultural destruction, and US$ 2.7 billion in total damage
(Rai, 2013; USAID 2014).

Disasters in the Philippines contribute to a never ending cycle of poverty, inhibiting people and
communities from exercising their rights and fulfilling their development potential (UNICEF, n.d.). The
poorest of the poor Filipinos reside in coastal municipalities, and are in peril from the impacts of
typhoons and other natural disasters. Farmers are one of the first to feel the effects of climate change
on agriculture, threatening food security. (OECD, n.d.). During droughts or extremely wet seasons that
put crops in peril, farmers in Mindanao, considered the food basket of the country, end up skipping
meals, or borrowing from loans sharks (Chandra, 2017). All these result in further burdening a nation
already tottering from a plethora of problems Women are especially exposed to climate change risks.
Women are less able to flee during natural disasters as they have to take care of children and elderly.
They are also often excluded in many farming decisions and are expected to simply support the men in
their family. When drought happens, the women walk further to find a water source. Moreover, there is
often an income gap between mean and women which gives them fewer opportunities for economic
security. Finally, policies are often not gender sensitive and do not take the needs of these women into
consideration (Oxfam, 2017). Philippine Policies on Climate Change In agreement to Lo and Chow’s
(2015) assertion that impacts of climate change can be less devastating if countries are prepared, the
Philippine national government has crafted three major policies as a means of prioritizing climate
change related initiatives. First, the 5 Climate Change Act of 2009 designed the framework for
integrating climate change adaptation in government plans and programs and established the Climate
Change Commission as the governing body for climate change policies (London School of Economics,
2009). A year later, the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act was ratified to provide a
comprehensive and community-based approach to disaster preparedness. A vital component of this law
is a mandate to mainstream disaster risk management down to the local government units (National
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, 2010). Peñalba et al. (2012) explains that local
government units (LGUs) are crucial to responding to climate change because the type and severity of
impact is often location-specific. LGUs also know which socio-economics groups are most at risk to the
dangers of climate change. The mandate now requires each LGU to establish its own Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Office, and craft a Local Climate Change Action Plan (Department of the
Interior and Local Government, 2014). Finally, the People’s Survival Fund was established in 2014 as a
supplemental fund for local government units and community organizations. The one-billion-peso fund
aims to finance the implementation of long-term projects that will build resiliency to the effects of
climate change amongst municipalities (Fernandez, 2016). Examples of these include health programs,
watershed management, and capacity-building for farmers. Priority for funding is given to LGUs with a
high percentage of people living in poverty or those with vital biodiversity (People’s Survival Fund, n.d.)

Overall Results of Policy Interventions

The implementation of these policies is having some promising signs of climate change adaptation. Once
ranked third among the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change in 2011, the Philippines has
dropped down to thirteenth in 2016 (Ranada, 2015). The Oxford Business Group (2016) attributes the
improvement in rankings to several factors: increasing access to clean water and sanitation, more
responsive disaster risk management and less reliance on the agricultural sector. All of these have
contributed in building more resilient communities and lowering typhoon related deaths.

General Assessment of Climate Change Policies in the Philippines

Climate change policies are focused on disaster risk reduction management (DRRM) and adaptation.
While mitigation is also mentioned in the umbrella policy the Climate Change Act, only disaster risk
reduction and management, and adaptation have their own separate strategies – the National DRRM
Plan 2011-2028 and the 2010 Philippine Strategy on Climate Change Adaptation. There isn’t any for
climate change mitigation. Mitigation will be crucial once the COP 21 Paris Agreement commitments are
implemented. While not a major emitter, the Philippines promised to reduce carbon emissions by 70
percent by 2030. It was signed in Paris by President Aquino’s administration. It was finally ratified in
March 2017 after President Duterte called it an unfair agreement that could limit developing countries
like the Philippines (Romero & Matteo, 2017). However, current mitigation programs will not be enough
to reduce emissions by 70%. In fact, the percentage of the budget allotted for mitigation measures is
declining as seen in the charts below. Meanwhile, the budget for adaptation and disaster management
have been increasing.
Policy Analysis of the People’s Survival Fund

This section is devoted to the analysis of one of the Philippine climate change policies: The People’s
Survival Fund (PSF). Republic Act 10174, otherwise known as the People’s Survival Fund, is a special fund
in the National Treasury for the financing of climate change adaptation1 project. Annually, the fund is
allocated PhP1 billion from the General Appropriations Act, with any unused amount being added to the
following year’s amount. Local government units (LGUs), non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and
other civil society organizations (CSOs) are eligible to submit community-led climate change adaptation
proposals to the People’s Survival Fund board, which will shortlist and approve the projects (de la Cruz,
2013; Ranada, 2015). 1 Adaptation as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2007), is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to expected climatic stimuli or their
effects, which moderates harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. 8 Analytical Framework The
framework illustrated in Figure 5 is used to analyze the strengths and gaps of the different policies and
strategies. Adopted from Walt and Gilson (1994), it elaborates on the relationships among content,
context, process and actors.
Actors Strengths The stakeholders are well represented. The proposal approval board, as illustrated in
Figure 6, is composed of six representatives from different government agencies2 . This includes the
Philippine Commission for Women to ensure gender is taken into account in the proposal, plus three
members from civil society representing the academe, private sector and NGOs. Furthermore, the fund
decentralizes climate change adaptation to the grassroots level and empowers local communities to
propose their own solutions. 2 National Economic Development Authority, Climate Change Commission,
Department of Interior and Local Government, Department of Finance, Department of Budget and
Management, and the Philippine Commission on Women. (Climate Change Commision, n.d.) 9 Figure 6.
Policy actors for the People’s Survival Fund (Climate Change Commision, n.d.) Gaps It can also be
challenging to decentralize climate change adaptation programs to LGUs because personnel rarely get
assigned to work on these programs alone; it is usually added on to an existing role. Furthermore,
climate programs, which take longer to yield results, get set aside for quick wins in more pressing
concerns such as food security, health and basic education. Context Strengths The policy recognizes that
the lived realities of communities are so diverse and there is no one-size-fits-all solution to climate
change. Localizing adaptation programs means that these are attuned to the particular context and
needs of a community. The fund also prioritizes areas with higher exposure to climate risks, have higher
poverty incidences, or have key biodiversity corridors(Climate Change Commission, 2016; Lagsa, 2015),
which means that access to the fund will be for the communities that really need it. Gaps The proposal
requires knowledge of and aligning it to the local and national climate change and disaster risk reduction
and management frameworks, which not all LGUs have. 10 There is a very limited database of local
climate vulnerabilities, which is also necessary in the proposal stage. Process Strengths Since this makes
use of public funds, processes are outlined and requires proper documentation as a means of
accountability. The clear scoring criteria3 for ranking project proposals prevents politicization of the
process. Figure 7. People’s Survival Fund proposal process (Climate Change Commission, 2016) Gaps
Many LGUs show a lack of awareness of the PSF, the scope of possible projects, and the proposal
process. This indicates the inefficiency of cascading the policy from the national government to the city
and municipal governments (Lagsa, 2016). Furthermore, the 3 40% for the level of poverty incidence,
30% for the exposure to climate risks, and 30% for the presence of identified key biodiversity areas
(Climate Change Commission, n.d.). 11 complicated process can be too daunting for small organizations.
Civil and non-governmental proponents also require government accreditation, which is formidable task
on its own. Proposals have been disapproved due to incomplete documents4. Processing time takes
much longer than is indicated in the process flow. Thus, funds take too much time to be disbursed. The
law was enacted in 2012 but only became operational in 2015 (Galicha, 2015). The first projects were
approved in November 2016, for implementation in 2017 (Sunstar, 2016). Finally, there is no database
of these approved projects, which could have served as a guide for other communities hoping to
propose their own projects. Figure 8. People’s Survival Fund project implementation flowchart (Climate
Change Commission, 2016) 4 Proposals require the following documents: (1) letter of intent, (2)
certificate of accreditation if proponent is an NGO or CSO, (3) work plan, (4) financial plan, (5) local
climate change action plan, (6) comprehensive development plans, (7) risk and vulnerability assessment,
(8) climate and disaster risk assessment, and (9) climate change studies (Climate Change Commission,
2016).

Content

Strengths There are some overlaps with disaster risk reduction programs but most of the fund’s scope
addresses new adaptation measures. Thus, the proposed projects can integrate well with other
government-led programs. Gaps Right now, the fund is limited to proposals that fall under the following
six themes: (1) sectoral vulnerability assessments, (2) monitoring of vector-borne diseases, (3)
forecasting and early warning systems, (4) institutional development for LGUs and communities, (5) risk
financing, and (6) community adaptation support programs (Climate Change Commission, 2016). So any
innovative proposal that does fit within these themes run the risk of being rejected. Furthermore, PhP 1
billion5 for an annual fund might be a relatively small amount considering that these are community-
wide projects and the Philippines has 144 cities and 1,490 municipalities. Finally, the policy does not
contain overall monitoring and evaluation protocols. These are left to the individual project proponents.

Current Status of the People’s Survival Fund

Since the fund started accepting proposals in late 2015, there have been 38 proposals submitted, 22
(58%) of which are deemed compliant with the requirements. These proposals come from 24 different
proponents, mostly from local government units. Only 9 out of the 22 proposals have been shortlisted
as potential candidates, with the total cost of PhP 452.4 million or 45% of the annual fund allocation
(Fernandez, 2016). Only 2 proposals have been fully approved so far. The rest were either approved
pending the submission of more technical details, or returned for revisions and reconsideration
(Sunstar, 2016)

. Policy Recommendations

Based on the analysis of the People’s Survival Fund, the following recommendations can be made. There
is a need to develop proper information dissemination campaigns to address the lack of awareness and
knowledge of the People’s Survival Fund and its mechanisms. A review of he submission process and the
requirements can make the fund 5 Equivalent to NZD 27 million 13 even more responsive to the realities
of smaller project proponents. Capacity building of local government units, NGOs and communities can
be done to help them in preparing project proposals. Knowledge management protocols such as a
central database may be adopted to open the access to climate change data. The PhP 1 billion annual
allocation for the fund could be reviewed in light of the costing of the initial project proposals.
Identification of other potential sources for funding such as international aid would be helpful in
augmenting the fund so that many more communities will be helped. There is also a need to develop
monitoring and evaluation methodologies and tools to help quantify impacts including the cost benefit
analysis of adaptation measures. Finally, an incentive mechanism would encourage cities and
municipalities to prioritize climate adaptation projects. This could be in the form of having a climate
ready city / municipality award.

Conclusion

Being one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, the Philippines is one of the climate
pioneers in South East Asia. The country has implemented policy frameworks for climate change
adaptation, which continues to evolve to this day. One of the policies, the People’s Survival Fund,
contextualizes adaptation to the local realities of a community. This policy has a number of strength but
also contains areas for improvements. Several recommendations have been made in this paper to
strengthen the policy. While there has been a decline in the vulnerability of the different sectors of
Philippine society, climate change still continues to be a pressing issue. Policies need to continuously
evolve to be responsive to the needs of the Filipinos.

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 The Water Quality of the Pasig River in the City of Manila, Philippines: Current Status, Management
and Future Recovery

Joan B. Gorme, Marla C. Maniquiz, Pum Song, Lee-Hyung Kim† Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Kongju National University, Cheonan 331-717, Korea
February 2015

Abstract
Pasig River is an important river in the Metro Manila, Philippines, since it provides food, livelihood and
transport to its residents, and connects two major water bodies; Laguna de Bay and Manila Bay.
However, it is now considered to be the toilet bowl of Metro Manila due to the large amount of wastes
dumped into the river. Even with the efforts of the government to revive the quality of the Pasig River
and its tributaries, it continues to deteriorate over time. This paper provides an overview of the current
condition of the Pasig River. The existing water management policies were reviewed, and the issues and
challenges hindering the improvement of its water quality identified. Moreover, the water qualities of
the rivers in Metro Manila were compared to those of the major rivers in South Korea. The current
watershed management system practiced by South Korea has been discussed to serve as a guideline for
future recovery of the water quality of the rivers in the Philippines.

Keywords: Pasig River, Water quality, Management, Pollution, Policies

Introduction
The Philippines is a country of almost 92 million people, with around 12 million people residing in Metro
Manila [1]. Metro Manila, the National Capital Region (NCR), is the country’s main hub of all
socioeconomic, industrial, cultural and political activities. Its economic zone produced a total gross
domestic product (GDP) of 4.6% in 2008 and urbanization has increased by more than 50% over the past
20 years [2, 3]. While the NCR has the smallest area of the regions in the Philippines, it has the highest
numbers of households (28% of the total) and manufacturing industries (46%). Metro Manila has the
highest population density, at 16,497 person/km2 , and most of its land area is limited for
developmental expansion, with little or no area for agriculture [4]. 1.1. Background Massive population
growth, infrastructure development and increased economic activities after the World War II in 1940s
led to the deterioration of the water bodies in Metro Manila. In 1990, ecologists had already
pronounced the Pasig River as dead and incapable of sustaining marine life. As of 2003, four more rivers
were formally declared by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) as biologically
dead; the NavotasMalabon-Tenejeros-Tullahan (NMTT) River, Parañaque River, Marikina River and San
Juan River. Apart from water lilies and janitor fish, hardly any life forms are able to survive its murky
waters. Many of its tributaries are clogged by household garbage from Metro Manila. A steady horde of
migration to the metropolis had resulted in over congestion and exploitation of land and its river.
Increasing poverty in the rural areas has driven rural people to migrate to Metro Manila to seek better
income opportunities. The river banks are the most logical areas for new settlements because many of
the other squatter colonies in the metropolis are already overpopulated. From being a recreation venue
and a source of food and livelihood, the river has become the dumping ground of informal settlers living
along the banks of the river and its tributaries, as well as by almost all surrounding establishments [3].
The river is also the catchment basin of floodwaters from several tributaries from upstream areas of
Metro Manila. Before pollution destroyed the aquatic ecosystem, Laguna de Bay and Manila Bay served
as the habitat for 25 varieties of fish and 13 other different types of aquatic creature. However, only 6
species of fish and 2 types of plants that can tolerate the polluted water are currently left [3].
nects two large water bodies in Metro Manila: Laguna de Bay (the largest fresh water lake in the
country) and Manila Bay (the country’s main port of maritime trade and travel). The flow of the Pasig
River through the urban areas comes from its upstream portion located in Laguna de Bay, then moves
through the Napindan Channel and joins the Marikina River at the boundary of Pasig and Taguig. It links
further with San Juan River and finally flows out into Manila Bay. It is approximately 27 km long, with an
average width of 91 m, and depths ranging from 0.5-5.5 m. A stretch of the Pasig River has an average
depth of 1.3 m. The deepest portions (4.5 m) are located between Guadalupe Bridge (GB) and C6 Bridge
(CB), while the shallowest portion is at the mouth of Manila Bay. The annual average volume of water
flowing into Manila Bay is 6.6 million m3 . During low flow, from March to May, the discharge volume is
12 m3 /sec, while high flow during October to November reaches 275 m3 /sec [5]. The Pasig River is
classified by the DENR as Class C, which is primarily intended for fishery, recreation and supply for
manufacturing processes [6]. The strategic location of the Pasig River has made it and its tributaries, the
San Juan River, Taguig-Pateros River and Marikina River, integral in the economic activity of the
metropolis, providing the major means of transport, water sources for domestic and industrial uses, and
a place for recreation and shelter to a large variety of fish and other aquatic life. As such, it is a vital
ecosystem and an irreplaceable natural resource. Currently, all of the waterways of Metro Manila are
heavily polluted. Domestic waste accounts for about 60% of the total pollution in the Pasig River, with
the rest originating from industrial wastes (33%), such as tanneries, textile mills, food processing plants,
distilleries, chemical and metal plants, as well as from solid waste (7%) dumped into the rivers. At
present, Metro Manila is reportedly producing as much as 7,000 tons of trash per day [7].Due to the
continuous dumping of wastes, the river bed has become more and more silted with organic matter and
non biodegradable garbage. This has resulted in serious flooding along the river, affecting nearby
communities and carrying polluted water to the households close to the river. 1.3. Government
Intervention Efforts to revive the Pasig River started in 1973, via the creation of the Pasig River
Development Council (PRDC) and implementation of the Pasig River Development Program (PRDP) [8].
These were mainly concerned with the relocation of informal families and dredging of the silted portions
of the river, relocation of two large sewers in Manila Bay and the construction of concrete railings along
its banks. However, the PRDC and PRDP were abolished in 1987 due to lack of support. In 1993, an
Environmental Partnership Program was created to encourage the industrial and business sectors to
engage in environmental improvement activities, and advance self-monitoring and mandatory
compliance with environmental standards [9]. In 1999, Pasig River Rehabilitation Commission (PRRC)
was created to supervise, monitor plans, programs, projects and activities, and enforce rules and
regulations towards the rehabilitation tion of the river. Activities to improve the water quality included:
mandatory localized sewage treatment, setting up of communal sanitation projects for secondary
sewage households, provision of credit support for the establishment of waste treatment plants,
implementation of appropriate industrial relocation plan, expansion of community based solid waste
management, garbage river-based collection through loading stations, and immense educational and
training campaigns for the communities and industries near Pasig River. The control of domestic and
industrial wastes was made possible through the World Bank-financed Manila Third Sewerage Project
(MTSP). This project will increase treatment coverage to 30% in 2010, with an additional capacity for
waste water treatment of more than 200 million L/d. MTSP will showcase the use of the Combined
Sewer-Drainage System for the collection of wastewater from households [10]. In compliance with the
continuing mandamus of the Supreme Court to conduct and collect consolidated information or data on
the existing condition of the water quality of the Pasig River, several government agencies, such as the
PRRC, Environmental Management Bureau Central Office and National Capital Region, and Laguna Lake
Development Authority, were tasked to conduct monitoring, sampling and analyses to serve as a basis
for any appropriate actions required in saving the water quality of the Pasig River. In 2009, initiatives
were undertaken to discuss the integration for a monitoring program for the Pasig River. These agencies
agreed to monitor 13 sampling stations, named the Pasig River Unified Monitoring Stations (PRUMS).
These stations, shown in Fig. 1, are located in GB, CB, Marikina Bridge (MrB), Vargas Bridge (VB),
Bambang Bridge (BaB), Lambingan Bridge (LB), Sevilla Bridge (SB), Jones Bridge (JB), Manila Bay-Baseco
(MB), Havana Bridge (HB), Guadalupe Viejo Creek (GVC), Guadalupe Nuevo Creek (GNC) and Buwayang
Bato (BB).

1.4. Research Objectives

Despite the efforts of the government to control the pollution in the Pasig River, the water pollution
continues to worsen. This paper provides an overview of the current condition of the Pasig River. The
existing water management policies were reviewed, and the issues and challenges hindering the
improvement to its water quality identified. Moreover, the water qualities of the rivers of Metro Manila
were compared to those of the major rivers in South Korea. The current watershed management system
practiced by South Korea has also been discussed to serve as a guideline for future recovery of the water
quality of the rivers in the Philippines.

2. Data Collection

The data used for the evaluation of the water quality of the Pasig River was obtained from the PRRC.
The 13 monitoring stations selected by the agencies under PRUMS are shown in Fig. 1. The stations were
selected based on three factors: (a) commonalities of the different stations to each agencies, (b) area of
the most affected section of the river and (c) consideration of the population and numbers of significant
commercial and industrial discharges. The samples for the monitoring program for 2009 were collected
on the 11th and 24th days of February and March, and the 1st Wednesday from April to December. The
dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, and temperature were measured in the field with portable meters. The
water samples were transported to the laboratory, where they were analyzed for biochemical oxygen
demand (BOD), nutrients, oil and grease, total suspended solids (TSS), total coliforms and heavy metals,
according to the standards in the DENR Water Quality Monitoring Manual. Measurements of the
physical attributes of the river and the pollution levels were taken at regular intervals. The data
gathered were processed by the Mike 11 system model, which simulates the river and its flow based on
mathematical equations, from which the experts may be able to predict high water levels in the river or
simulate the flow of a large volume of water from one end of the river to the other, together with the
levels of pollution in the river under the simulated conditions [3].

Conclusions

Water is a major constituent of every organism and; thus, the most important resource to man. Rivers
in Metro Manila are not only a good source of water and food, but also provide access to trade and
transport. Metro Manila, being the Philippines capital and home to many houses, business
establishments and industries, is the most urbanized region in the Philippines. In 1990, the government
declared the Pasig River, the most important river system in Metro Manila, biologically dead due to the
rapid industrialization and urbanization within the area, which poses threats to Laguna Bay (the largest
freshwater lake in the country) and Manila Bay (the country’s main port of maritime trade and travel),
since it serves as a two-way connector between these two water bodies. Despite the efforts of the
government to control the water quality of the Pasig River, its condition continues to worsen. The data
obtained from the Pasig River indicate that the target water quality for Class C waters have not been
achieved since 2003. The main problem when addressing water quality problems is insufficient
government funding. The lack of monetary resources had resulted in the weak implementation of
government projects. The government has not been able to provide enough wastewater facilities to
treat huge discharges coming from domestic, industrial and solid wastes, with the majority of these
wastes being discharged directly into the river without proper treatment. Another factor is the lack of
support from residents living in Metro Manila to cooperate with projects and mandates. Aside from
these factors, natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, have constantly plagued the country. The
MOE of South Korea has improved the water quality of its major rivers over the past few years by
transforming its previous policies to a more innovative watershed management system by forming
partnership with watershed members to finance government supported projects with watershed
management funds. As a result, the government introduced effective policy measures to achieve
comprehensive watershed management - the designation of buffer zones, the land purchase system, the
total pollution load management system, financial support for the applicable residents, and the water
use charge system. In the Philippines, effective solutions to resolve the conditions of its water quality
management cannot be found without the participation and cooperation of its residents. The
government must be able to build real watershed communities through efforts of both local
government and its watershed members. The government needs to listen to its residents and reflect
their opinions on the government’s watershed management policies; whereas, the residents should
endeavor to resolve their own water resource problems. With that in mind, the residents of Metro
Manila would be able to bring back the once pristine waters of the Pasig River and many other water
bodies.

References

1. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. World Population
Prospects, Table A.1 [Internet]. c2009 [cited 2009 Mar 12]. Available from: http://
www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/ wpp2008_text_tables.pdf. 2. Asian Development
Bank, Philippines: Fact Sheet [Internet]. c2008 [cited 2009 Sep 14]. Available from: http://www.adb.
org/Documents/Fact_Sheets/PHI.pdf. 3. Helmer R, Hespanhol I, United Nations Environment
Programme, Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council, World Health Organization. Water
pollution control: a guide to the use of water quality management principles. 1st ed. London: E & FN
Spon; 1997. 4. The World Bank. 2003 Philippines Environment Monitor [Internet]. c2003 [cited 2009 Sep
14]. Available from: http:// www.worldbank.org.ph/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/
EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/PHILIPPINESEXTN/0,,contentMDK
:20209686~isCURL:Y~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSite PK:332982,00.html. 5. Pasig River
Rehabilitation Commission. The Pasig River Basin [Internet]. c2004 [cited 2010 Jan 25]. Available from: 6.
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Events/2004/OrientationDMC-Officials/ondrik.pdf. 7. Department of
Environment and Natural Resources. Revised water usage and classification/water quality criteria
amending section nos. 68 and 69, chapter III of the 1978 NPCC rules and regulations [Internet]. c1990
[cited 2009 Jul 08]. Available from:
http://www.emb.gov.ph/laws/water%20quality%20management/dao90-34.pdf. 8. The World Bank
Ingestion of Marine Plastic Debris by Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas) in Davao Gulf, Mindanao,
Philippines 1 Davao Del Norte State College,
Panabo City, Philippines 2 Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, Wageningen Institute of Animal Sciences
Wageningen University of Life, Wageningen, The Netherlands 3 D' Bone Collector Museum, Inc., Davao
City, Philippines 4 Regional Integrated Coastal Resource Management Center (RIC-XI), Davao Oriental
State College of Science and Technology (DOSCST), Mati, Davao Oriental

Abstract

Marine plastic debris is a global problem that is threatening marine biodiversity. Different marine
organisms have been exposed to the lethal and sub-lethal effects of this problem. Sub-lethal effects
include reduced fitness due to reduced feeding, reduced reproductive output, limb amputation, and
exposure to diseases and toxic materials, while lethal effects include drowning, gastro-intestinal
blockage, and stomach rupture. Marine turtles are very vulnerable to these effects since these
organisms actively ingest plastic mistaking it as prey. This adds stress to the declining population of
marine turtles. On 17 April 2015, a dead adult female green turtle was recovered in Brgy. Lapu-lapu,
Agdao, Davao City, Philippines. Necropsy showed that several plastic materials caused blockage in the
pyloric end of the stomach which may have caused the turtle’s mortality

Key words: Davao gulf, Green turtle, plastic debris, plastic ingestion, pollution

NTRODUCTION
Marine plastic debris is considered a threat to marine biodiversity. The effects of plastic on marine
organisms range from sub-lethal to lethal. Sub-lethal effects include reduced fitness due to reduced
feeding and stomach capacity, vulnerability to predators, reduced reproductive output, limb
amputation, exposure to diseases and toxic materials adsorbed to plastics that may cause physiological
irregularities. On the otherhand, several studies have reported that plastic has caused mortality to
marine species by drowning, gastro-intestinal blockage, and stomach rupture among others (McCauley
& Bjorndal 1999; Plot & Georges 2010; Hirai et al. 2011; De Stephanis et al. 2013; Lavers et al. 2014).
Aside from its direct impacts to individual marine organisms, plastic can also have ecological effects that
may indirectly affect various marine animals. Plastic is known to introduce alien species, altering the
community structure and possibly food web simplification (Katsanevakis et al. 2014; Pham et al. 2014).
The ubiquity of plastics in the marine environment means that exposure of different marine organisms
to these pollutants is high. An increasing trend in the number of marine species directly affected by
plastic, through entanglement and ingestion, has been observed (Secretariat of the Convention on
Biological Diversity and the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel—GEF 17 2012.). This can be a result
of the increasing encounters that occur between marine species and plastic debris found in the world’s
oceans (González-Carman et al. 2014) . The amount of plastic production in the 1950’s was around 1.5
million tons. In 2012, the global plastic production have reached 288 million tons, of which 0.1% is
estimated to become marine plastic debris (Eriksen et al. 2014). Resistance to degradation due to the
durability of plastics have allowed it to accumulate in the world’s oceans over the years and plastic in
the ocean has been estimated to be from 35,000 tons to 268,940 tons or 5.25 trillion plastic particles
(Cózar et al. 2014; Eriksen et al. 2014). Although this can be an underestimation, it can be considered a
big pollution problem. Among the different marine organisms affected by plastic debris, marine turtles
are one of the most vulnerable (Schuyler et al. 2015). All of the seven marine turtle species have been
reported to ingest plastic debris (Kühn et al. 2015). One possible cause of plastic ingestion by marine
turtles is the visual similarity of the material to their natural prey, specifically jellyfish, thereby making
marine turtles actively ingest this material (Schuyler et al. 2014b). Reports on marine turtle mortalities
caused by plastic ingestion can affect its population dynamics (Lazar & Gračan 2011), posing a new
challenge to turtle conservation. The Philippines is considered to be one of the “hottest” biodiversity
hotspots in the world (Myers et al. 2000) and marine plastic pollution poses additional threat to its
biodiversity (e.g. nutrient enrichment, sedimentation (Abreo et al. 2015) and overfishing (Nañola et al.
2010)). With a fast growing economy, increased usage of plastic will inevitably lead to the increase in
plastic deposition in the marine environment (Lebreton et al. 2012; van Sebille et al. 2012). Moreover,
plastic pollution is observed to be higher in densely populated areas where there are increased
anthropogenic activities (Ryan 2013). In 2012, global plastic production was at 288 million tons using the
conservative estimate of Eriksen et al. (2014). This translates into at least 288 thousand tons of plastic
becoming marine debris. Human dependence on plastic has caused the increasing production of the
material (Andrady and Neal 2009). Plastic debris will inadvertently impact marine species in the
environment as a result. Davao City, which is one of the urban centers of the Philippines, is situated
alongside the Davao Gulf. The potential of its population (over one million) contributing to marine
plastic debris is great. This study reports the first case of plastic ingestion by a marine turtle in Davao
Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines.

METHODOLOGY

On 17 April 2015, a deceased green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) was recovered in Brgy. Lapu-lapu,
Agdao, Davao City (Figure 1). Necropsy was performed to determine Figure 1. Map of Davao City
showing the location of the recovered green turtle. Abreo et al: Ingestion of Marine Plastic Debris by
Green Turtle Philippine Journal of Science Vol. 145 No. 1, March 2016 18 the cause of death.
Morphometric measurements were taken and external morphology was checked for physical injuries.
Further, the digestive tract was opened and checked for lacerations and other damages that may have
caused the death of the sea turtle. Gut contents were collected, washed with freshwater, air dried, and
analyzed. Anthropogenic debris was later isolated from food remains and other organic debris. In this
study, only anthropogenic debris was analyzed and then categorized by type and color.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Globally, marine turtle population is declining (Table 1) due to different
anthropogenic activities that impacts their habitat. Threats to marine turtle population includes
overfishing for human consumption, accidental catch (by-catch), collision with vessels and marine
pollution, among others (Bagarinao 2011; González-Carman et al. 2014; Poli et al. 2014). This same
trend is observed for marine turtle populations in the Philippines (Meylan and Donnelly 1999). The
decline in marine turtle population prompted the formation of the Pawikan Conservation Project, a
government conservation effort to address the dwindling marine turtle population of the country (Trono
1991). The C. mydas that was recovered was an adult female (Figure 2) with a curved carapace length
(CCL) of 47.63 cm and a curved carapace width (CCW) of 45.72 cm . The sea turtle did not exhibit any
external injuries, nor did it exhibit signs of malnutrition and disease. Further, no injuries, such as
lacerations, were observed in the digestive tract of the sea turtle. The stomach contained undigested
sea grass (approx. 1 kilogram wet weight), remains of 2 squid beaks, and plastic materials (Figure 3).
Among the different marine turtle species, C. mydas has been observed to have increased their
likelihood to ingest Table 1. Status of Marine Turtles. Common name Scientific name IUCN status
Population trend Loggerhead Turtle Caretta caretta Endangered - Hawksbill Turtle Eretmochelys
imbricata Endangered Decreasing Kemp’s Ridley Turtle Lepidochelys kempii critically endangered - Olive
Ridley Turtle Lepidochelys olivacea Vulnerable Decreasing Flatback Turtle Natator depressus data
deficient - Leatherback Turtle Dermochelys coriacea Vulnerable Decreasing Green Turtle Chelonia mydas
Endangered Decreasing Source: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2015.1. . Downloaded
on 11 June 2015. Figure 2. Carcass of the Chelonia mydas recovered in Davao City. Figure 3. Stomach
contents of the recovered Chelonia mydas. plastic from 30 % in the 1980’s to 50 % in 2012 (Schuyler et
al. 2014a). As shown in Table 2, among the plastic materials ingested by the recovered C. mydas, the
most common were plastics that were soft and transparent (33.3 %) and white plastics (33.3 %) (Figure
3). Studies have Abreo et al: Ingestion of Marine Plastic Debris by Green Turtle Philippine Journal of
Science Vol. 145 No. 1, March 2016 19 Table 2. Plastic Ingested by Marine turtle recovered in Brgy.
Lapulapu, Agdao Davao City. Plastic Color No. of Pieces Percentage (%) Transparent/translucent 5 33.3
White 5 33.3 Blue 2 13.3 Gray 2 13.3 Multicolored 1 06.6 shown that marine turtles are able to
distinguish color and this ability affects their food selection behavior (Swimmer et al. 2006). Moreover, a
study conducted by Schuyler et al (2014b) showed that C. mydas favor ingestion of soft plastic that is
translucent and/or transparent. The high amount of soft and transparent plastic that was ingested by
the individual could be a result of the turtle mistaking it for a prey (e.g. jellyfish) (Schuyler et al. 2012).
Aside from transparent plastic materials, the individual also ingested plastic materials of different color
(Figure 5) and a five centavo replica (Figure 6). Given that marine turtles are visual feeders, ingestion of
the coin replica is not a result of active food selection. The plausible reason could be that it was ingested
accidentally. Marine organisms, such as dolphins and whales, ingest plastic accidentally with their prey
(Di Beneditto & Ramos 2014). Since plastic marine debris is ubiquitous, its distribution overlaps with
foraging areas of marine organisms (Williams et al. 2011). Plastic marine debris is known to be found
floating in the water column and are also abundant in sea floors, both of which are utilized by C. mydas
(Schuyler et al. 2014a).This could mean that the presence of plastic in their foraging areas increases the
likelihood of accidentally ingesting the plastic materials (Sigler 2014). High frequency of ingested plastic
was observed by Gonzalez-Carman (2014) in the guts of marine turtles that were found to have core
foraging areas overlapping with areas having high concentration of marine plastic debris. This can also
be the plausible reason for the ingestion of plastic with other colors. The plastic debris was not found to
have caused any lacerations or damages in the digestive tract of the individual. The lack of sharp and
hard plastics may be a plausible explanation for the lack of internal injuries. Figure 4. Transparent
plastics found in the digestive tract of Chelonia mydas. Figure 6. five centavo replica recovered from the
digestive tract of the Chelonia mydas. Figure 5. Colored plastic materials recovered from the digestive
tract of Chelonia mydas. Figure 7. Feces of recovered Chelonia mydas with plastic debris. Abreo et al:
Ingestion of Marine Plastic Debris by Green Turtle Philippine Journal of Science Vol. 145 No. 1, March
2016 20 Commonly, marine organisms that ingest plastic suffer from lacerations or rupture in parts of its
digestive tract which can lead to the organism's demise (Gregory 2009). Although plastics failed to cause
digestive tract damage that could have killed the individual, the plastics were found to have impacted its
intestines through blockage. Aside from large plastics found to have been lodged in the pyloric end of
the stomach, smaller plastic materials were also found in the large intestine embedded in the feces
(Figure 7). Although sea turtles are capable of excreting small plastic materials (Tomás et al. 2002),
accumulation of these small plastic materials can cause blockage in the digestive tract. Blockage of the
digestive tract is a leading cause of mortality for marine organisms that ingest plastic materials resulting
commonly in emaciation and severe starvation of the organism (McCauley &Bjorndal 1999; Lazar &
Gracan, 2011) . In the present case, the individual that was recovered did not exhibit signs of starvation
or malnutrition. Necropsy finding suggests that the individual was feeding, as indicated by the presence
of partially digested seagrass in the stomach. The amount of plastic found in its digestive tract was not
enough to cause false satiation that could lead to decrease food intake that would further lead to
starvation and emaciation. Although the complete blockage of the digestive tract of the recovered C.
mydas could have caused its death, it cannot be confirmed. The lack of signs of emaciation of the
individual could be an implication that its death is caused not by malnutrition or less absorption of
nutrients. Studies showed that marine plastic debris has the ability to accumulate toxic materials
through adsorption (Hirai et al. 2011; Rochman et al. 2014). Moreover, these adsorbed toxic materials
and the materials that are part of the plastic during production, can be mobilized from the plastic once
exposed to surfactants in the guts of animals making it available for absorption (Engler 2012). Aside
from this, the study by Carson et al. (2013) showed that microorganisms also thrive in marine plastic
debris and those microorganisms can affect the marine organisms that may come in contact or ingest
the plastic debris with microorganisms (Arbelo et al. 2012). CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Plastic in the marine environment has been documented to have caused mortality to different marine
organisms. The ubiquity of these materials in the marine environment coupled with its increasing
number can have negative implications to marine biodiversity. In this study, the first incidence of
mortality of a green turtle (C. mydas) due to plastic ingestion in the Philippines was recorded. The
intestinal blockage that the plastics caused in the distal part of the stomach could have probably caused
its demise. A further study might be conducted on these plastic ingestion incidents (e.g. histopathology
studies) to understand the interaction between marine organisms and marine plastic debris. The
amount and distribution of plastic marine debris in the Davao Gulf should also be determined, as well as
the core foraging areas of these turtles since studies have shown that the overlap of plastic distribution
and foraging habitats can increase plastic ingestion incidence (González Carman et al. 2014).

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Enrichment, Sedimentation, Heavy Metals and Plastic Pollution in the Marine Environment and its
Implications on Philippine Marine Biodiversity: A Review. IAMURE International Journal of Ecology and
Conservation 15(1):111-167 ANDRADY AL, NEAL MA. 2009. Applications and societal benefits of plastics.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 364(1526):1977–1984.doi:10.1098/ rstb.2008.0304 ARBELO M,
BELLIÈRE EN, SIERRA E, SACCHINNI S, ESPERÓN F, ANDRADA M, RIVERO M, DIAZDELGADO J, FERNÁNDEZ
A. 2012. Herpes virus infection associated with interstitial nephritis in a beaked whale (Mesoplodon
densirostris). BMC Vet Res 8(1):243. doi:10.1186/1746-6148-8-243 BAGARINAO T. 2011. The sea turtles
captured by coastal fisheries in teh Northeastern Sulu Sea, Philippines: Documentation, care, and
release. Herpetol Conserv Biol 6(3):353–363. Carson, H.S., Nerheim, M.S., Carroll, K. a., Eriksen, M.,
2013. The plastic-associated microorganisms of the North Pacific Gyre. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 75:126–132.
doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.07.054
Efficiency Evaluation of Philippines Waste Management Sector: A Two-stage Approach
○Junelyn Pagunsan * , Koji Shimada **
March 19 , 2015

Abstract

Solid waste management tends to be more complex and costly which can aggravate the threat in the
environment and health of the human civilization globally. Comprehensive assessment over the issue is
essential to attain sustainability in a more globalized society. Thus, this paper seeks to evaluate how
efficient the Philippines local government units (LGUs) in its implementation of Republic Act No. 9003 or
Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000 using a two-stage approach. First, the relative efficiency
of each LGU in the implementation of solid waste management is estimated using Data Envelopment
Analysis (DEA). Thereafter, second stage utilized the Tobit Regression Analysis to further analyze the
effect of the following explanatory variables (land area, number of barangays, poverty incidence,
environmental governance and dummy variable – the ownership of disposal facility) on the DEA
estimates. First stage results show that the inefficiency of the LGUs in implementing the solid waste
management can be attributed to the mismanagement of funds and inappropriate operational scale.
However, mismanagement and inappropriate operational scale may not be entirely the basis of
inefficiency because second stage results show that all the explanatory variables evaluated have
significant relation to the performance of the LGUs.
Keywords: Solid Waste Management · Philippines · Efficiency · Data Envelopment Analysis · Tobit
Regression Analysis

Introduction

Solid waste management has been identified as an important service which drastically increasing in
volume and cost faster than the rate of urbanization globally (Hoornweg and BhadaTata, 2012). Further,
the growing complexity of the waste management problem may be attributed to various factors such as
financial, institutional and others (van de Klundert and Anschutz, 2001). This crucial issue threatening
the environment and human civilization is worth a scrutiny to attain sustainable future for the recent
globalized society. In Philippines, waste problem is still prevalent * Graduate student at Ritsumeikan
University and concurrently Associate Graft and Investigation Officer, Office of the Ombudsman.
Address: Ombudsman Building, Agham Road, North Triangle, Diliman, 1101 Quezon City, Philippines. E-
mail: japagunsan@gmail.com. ** Faculty of Graduate School of Economics, Ritsumeikan University.
Address: 1-1-1, Nojihigashi, Kusatsu, Shig despite the passage of Republic Act No. 9003 or Ecological
Solid Waste Management Act of 2000 (Aguinaldo, 2010). Thus, the main objectives of the study are two-
fold. First, the efficiency of Local Government Units (LGUs) in the Philippines will be measured using the
Data Envelopment Analysis. Thereafter, the efficiency measurement will be expand by a comprehensive
second stage wherein the efficiency scores estimated in the first stage are explained in a regression with
explanatory variables (also known as environmental variables for some research) as independent
variables. Also, this is a pioneering study to address the said endeavors in the Philippines.

. Review of Related Literatures

Solid Waste Management poses a major challenge in society because any activity or process generates
waste. Further, the management of solid waste is considered worldwide to be an expensive public
service. Most of the funds are allocated in the major cost centers or service categories of the solid waste
management namely solid waste collection, solid waste disposal and recycling (Hunt, et. al., 1997).
Insufficiency of funds is a widely identified barrier which hampers the provision of a better and
improved system most especially in developing countries. In the Philippines, aside from the insufficiency
of funds, the LGUs are incurring financial gap in the implementation of the whole system (ADB, 2003;
Sumalde, 2004). However, the LGUs has several funding arrangements and options for the
establishment of the solid waste management system. The sources of funds for the LGUs include the
following: (a) general budgetary appropriations; (b) external sources; (c) Cost recovery mechanisms such
as collection of waste fees and fines from waste violations; and (d) National Solid Waste Management
Fund (ADB, 2003). Despite the availability of financing options or mechanisms, improper management of
solid waste is still prevalent worldwide particularly in the developing countries. The immediate option
for the insufficiency of funds is the imposition of the economic instruments since solid waste is
considered public good (Cointreau and Cravioto, 2005). However, some economists believe that the
developing countries are not ready for these kinds of instruments. The reasons cited are lack of financial
and human resources, lack of enforcement, poorly developed financial markets and legal systems,
corruption, and lack of enough equipment and data. And the ineffectiveness of these instruments to the
developing countries may be due to the fact that these were applied based on the applicability on the
developed countries without considering the local circumstances (Matete and Trois, 2008; Couth and
Trois, 2010). On the other hand, some researchers perceive that the insufficiency of funds may not be
the root cause of the problem but the ineffective utilization of funds (Oelofse and Godfrey, 2008). Solid
Waste Management has been identified as an important service which drastically increasing in volume
and cost faster than the rate of urbanization globally (Hoornweg and BhadaTata, 2012). Further, the
growing complexity of the waste management problem may be attributed to various factors such as
financial, institutional and others (van de Klundert and Anschutz, 2001). Page | 3 This crucial issue
threatening the environment and human civilization is worth a scrutiny to attain sustainable future for
the recent globalized society. However, there are few studies conducted assessing the efficiency of the
waste sector especially in the developing countries. The comprehensive lists of literature reviews about
the economic performance of the waste sectors are presented in the paper of Simões and Marques
(2012). Over the past decades, the Philippines enacted several laws and regulations in order to protect
the environment and its citizenry especially to tackle the solid waste problem. However, the urgency to
tackle the said problem was heightened after the disposal crisis hits Metro Manila in 2000 known as
Payatas Tragedy when the mountains of garbage collapsed resulting to the loss of hundreds of human
lives. A year after that incident, Republic Act No. 9003 (RA 9003) or Ecological Solid Waste Management
Act of 2000 was enacted. In the next few years, the estimated waste generation will increase rapidly due
to the rapid growth in population and urbanization alongside with the development in the socio-
economic characteristics of the country. As estimated, the waste generation in 2005 amounting to
24,059 tons/day has increased to 28,875 tons/day in 2010 (NSWMC, 2004; Atienza, 2011). The major
sources of the wastes generated are households, commercial buildings, industrial/manufacturing
facilities, institution, and health care facilities. Approximately 73% of these wastes come from the
households while 26% come from the industrial/manufacturing facilities (Aguinaldo, 2008). Further,
approximately 50% of the waste generated from these sources consists of food and other organics while
approximately 45% of the waste generated consists of plastics, paper, glass and metals (ADB, 2003).
Since the passage of RA 9003 in 2011, there is a slow development of the solid waste management
system in the Philippines. The system is facing several issues and challenges such as inadequacy of
funds, lack of political will from the local officials, improper segregation at source and lack of
environmental awareness from the households. Sumalde (2004) found out that the LGUs incurred a
substantial fiscal gap from the income obtained and the amount needed to finance the solid waste
management system. According to Sumayao and de Guzman (2007), the knowledge of the households
about solid waste management is fairly high. As for the success of the waste management programs, the
households expect that the local officials will play proactive roles in implementing and monitoring the
said programs. However, Cabañog (2008) found out that lack of environmental awareness of the
community hinders the success of the solid waste management programs when conducted a survey on
the selected three cities in Misamis Occidental. In addition to that, the author stated that the
inadequacy of funds and lack of political will from the local officials influence the implementation of the
solid waste management programs. Also, Bernardo (2008) observed that the households did not
recognize the importance of waste segregation implying the lack of information dissemination regarding
solid waste management from the government. As such, the household failed to practice Page | 4
segregation for the reasons of lack of time, space and cost. Considering the current state of the
Philippine solid waste management system, it indicates that the government cannot solve the enormous
waste problems without the contribution of other stakeholders and assessment of other important
matters aside from the technical or technological perspectives (i.e. political, social and economic
perspective). Specifically, the sustainable solid waste management system and recycling industry of the
country can be attained by having good environmental governance through collaboration with other
stakeholders, effective public information dissemination through campaigns and promotions, and
shared ideas on innovative and appropriate technology (Atienza, 2008; Atienza, 2011).

3. Research Methodology

3.1 First Stage The performance evaluation in the provisions of public services particularly in the field of
waste sector gained popular attention due to the prevailing global financial and economic crisis. Zafra-
Gomez, et al. (2012) stated that such interest arose because the public administration policy imposed
stricter control on budgets and deficits as the result of the said crisis. As such, the necessity for the
development of management forms to produce cost savings is essential by evaluating the solid waste
management system. The assessment of local government’s resource utilization performance is
characterized by these two concepts: (a) productivity and (b) efficiency. The terms, productivity and
efficiency, have been used frequently but often used interchangeably in several studies. As Ray (2004)
differentiates these terms, the term “productivity” is defined as “a descriptive measure of performance”
while the term “efficiency” is defined as “a normative measure”. In line with these concepts, a firm aims
for efficient utilization of resources includes (a) maximizing the produced output given a specific
quantity of input and (b) minimizing the usage of input to produce a specific quantity of output.
Efficiency measurement techniques could either be based on parametric approach or nonparametric
approach. The parametric approaches (also known as statistical approach) utilize the econometric
techniques such as simple regression and Stochastic Frontier Analysis while the nonparametric
approaches employ mathematical programming techniques like in Data Envelopment Analysis and
simple technique of index numbers. And every approaches or methods have its own strengths and
weakness depending on the objective of the assessment and the availability of the data (Sarafidis, 2002).
Assessment of the efficiency of the solid waste sector has increasing special attention recently. Among
the frontier methods, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is gaining popularity and usage in the field of
waste sector. In addition to that, several debates are arising regarding the effects of environmental
factors in the efficiency of the solid waste sector. Several researches have been conducted using DEA
specifically in the field of waste sector such as the studies conducted by Page | 5 Bosch, et al. (2000),
Simoes, et al. (2010), Cubbin, et al. (1987), Sanchez (2008) and Callan and Thomas (2001) . Data
Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is non-parametric frontier technique which utilized the mathematical
programming in measuring the relative efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMU) consists of
homogenous sets of inputs and outputs. The growing popularity of DEA over the other approach is due
to its applicability to employ flexible and non-parametric approach to establish the best frontier and can
easy handle multiple inputs and outputs. According to Sarafidis (2002), DEA is highly preferred over the
other methods in the performance measurements in the following cases: (a) the regressors are highly
correlated to each other; (b) the random influences are the less of an issue or concern of the study; (c)
there is a difficulty in justifying the functional form for the inefficiency factors; and (d) there is a
difficulty in justifying the behavioral assumptions (i.e. cost minimization). And the other advantages
cited in using DEA are that it can readily be implemented on small number of observations (Evanroff and
Israilevich, 1991) and modeling it allows the selection of inputs and outputs based on the intention of
the managers (Avkiran, 1999). To illustrate how the DEA works, let’s assume that there is DMU “k”,
where “k” = 1,…, n. Moreover, let’s assume that there are “s” input and “m” output. As such, the input
and output vectors can be expressed as follows: Xi = (x1i , x2i ,…,xsi) T > 0, i= 1,…,k Yj = (x1j , x2j ,…, xmj)
T > 0, j= 1,…,k According to the basic model of DEA, the efficiency of “s” input and “m” output can be
illustrated as follows: ∑ ∑ = θk (1) where aj - measures the weight of each output yj (j = 1,…, s) bi -
measures the weight of each input xi (i = 1,…, m) θk - efficiency score The group of DMUs achieving the
efficiency score of 1 (θ = 1) will be considered as efficient frontier group that constitutes the most
efficient DMUs. This group is said to be the best performers who properly utilize any input to produce
the desired output. As such, the best performers are viewed as “peers” for other less efficient
performers or performers with weak evaluations. In this situation, the resulting efficiency score is
between 0 and 1. In the DEA terminology, the efficient DMUs have efficiency scores equals to 1 while
the inefficient DMUs have efficiency scores that fall within the range 0 to 1. There are different essential
choices to be settled in estimating the efficiency frontier. In operating the DEA, the choices will either be
input minimization (input-oriented) or output Page | 6 maximization (output-oriented). And these
choices suggest the appropriate objective for optimization depending on the kind of quantities the
managers have the capacity to control. In some agency or utilities, the managers will have to minimize
the usage of the input while having a fixed level of output. Hence, the input-oriented approach might be
more suitable. On the other hand, the output-oriented approach might be appropriate when the
managers are required to produce more output as possible in a given fixed quantity of input. In reality,
there could be a variations in the agency or utilities size, amount of inputs used and amount of outputs
produced. In this instance, the returns to scale will have to be formulated. Charnes, et al. (1978)
developed a linear programming model named as Charnes, Cooper, Rhodes Model (or simply CCR
Model) which integrates the assumption of constant returns to scale in order to measure the efficiency
of the DMUs. In the input-oriented model, the linear programming model can illustrated as follows: let’s
assume that there is DMU “k”, where “k” = 1,…, n. Moreover, let’s assume that there are “s” input and
“m” output. As such, the input and output vectors can be expressed as follows: Xi = (x1i , x2i ,…,xsi) T > 0,
i= 1,…,k Yj = (x1j , x2j ,…,xmj) T > 0, j= 1,…,k Note that this transformation will measure the efficiency of
each DMU once. Considering the above assumptions, every DMU “k” to be evaluated using CCR Model
as follows: Minimize θ such that Yiλ – Yk > 0 (2) θXk – Xiλ > 0 λ > 0, θ free where λ variables are non-
negative weights or intensity defining the frontier points θ defines the efficiency score of the DMU
under analysis The CCR Model calculates for the Overall Technical Efficiency of the DMUs under the
constant returns to scale assumption. It implies that a proportionate increase on outputs is due to the
increase in inputs wherein the scale of operations does not affect or influence the efficiency level of the
DMU. In reality, there are DMUs which can’t meet this constraint. As such, Banker, et al. (1984)
extended the CCR model to capture the variable returns to scale in the model adding the additional
restriction: Σλ = 1 which will result to the following linear programming model named as Banker,
Charnes, Cooper Model (or simply BCC) as follows: Minimize θ Page | 7 such that Yiλ – Yk > 0 (3) θXk –
Xiλ > 0 Σλ = 1 λ > 0, θ free where λ variables are non-negative weights or intensity defining the frontier
points θ defines the efficiency score of the DMU under analysis The BCC Model estimates for the Pure
Technical Efficiency of the DMUs under the variable returns to scale assumption. Moreover, the model
determines if the DMUs are operating at nonincreasing returns to scale, non-decreasing returns to scale
or variable returns to scale. Accordingly, it implies that the increase in inputs will result to a
disproportionate increase or decrease in outputs. The comparison between the Over-all Technical
Efficiency score and the Pure Technical Efficiency scores permits the identification of the inefficiency. As
such, the ratio of the Over-all Technical Efficiency and Pure Technical Efficiency evaluates the Scale
Efficiency of k DMU illustrated as follows: SEk = (4) The decomposition of the Over-all Technical
Efficiency into Pure Technical Efficiency and Scale Efficiency facilitate the determination of the source of
inefficiencies. Specifically, the characteristics of the Over-all Technical Inefficiency can be attributed to
the ineffective implementation of the production plan for converting the inputs to outputs (pure
technical efficiency) and deviation from the most productive scale size of the DMU (scale efficiency). The
Over-all Technical efficiency under the assumption of constant returns to scale describes the optimal
long run scale of the DMU while the Pure Technical Efficiency under the assumption of variable returns
to scale showcases the short run improvements. And the difference between the The scale efficiency
also determines whether the DMUs have been operating at optimal returns to scale, increasing returns
to scale or decreasing returns to scale. The optimal size of the DMU is achieved when a marginal
increase of all inputs (scale) results to the proportional increase in the outputs. If the difference
between the scale efficiency score of a DMU and the ideal full scale efficiency (SEk = 1) is larger, it is
more favorable outcome of scale. Under the input-oriented DEA Model, the Scale Efficiency computes
for the quantity of saving earned if the DMU was operating at the optimal scale. To be specific, the Scale
Efficiency score provides the information as to how much quantity of inputs can be reduced if the DMU
is operating at the optimal dimension. Just like any other approaches or methods, DEA has limitations
too. Having a deterministic nature, DEA is sensible for outliers, measurement errors and random
influences in the data under Page | 8 analysis. And all deviations from the frontier are considered
inefficiency. Just like in a regression analysis, any deviations from the frontier may be caused by several
factors such as omitted variables or measurement errors. Unfortunately, there is no test to determine
these factors. Hence, a high degree of diligence is required in interpreting the efficiency scores obtained
from DEA. As for the possible existence of outliers in the analysis, the remedy will be to look for
“reasonable” scores of inefficiency from the data sets. Consequently, eliminate these outliers from the
analysis even though there is no way to decide it is indeed an outlier or not. Considering that DEA
assumes data is free of any measurement errors, the non-assurance as to the integrity of the data will
provide undesirable results (Avkiran, 1999; Marschall and Flessa, 2011). Nevertheless, DEA is still the
most appropriate technique due to its advantages in measuring the relative efficiency of an agency or
sector specifically the waste sector. Over the past few years, the usage of DEA is several studies have
increased dramatically (Cooper and Lovell, 2011; Liu, et al., 2012).

Second Stage

In the first stage, the input oriented DEA models covered indirectly assume that all inputs are
discretionary or controllable. But then, in many real life situations, there can be nondiscretionary or
exogenously fixed variables and this should be reflected in the assessment of units. However, these
variables may be used in a post- DEA or commonly known as two-phase assessment in order to adjust
the initial DEA efficiency findings (Fried, et al., 2008). In some researches, these types of variables are
also identified as environmental factors/variables. The intention of the two-stage approach is to explain
the efficiency score, θ, using the nondiscretionary or exogenous variables beyond the control of the
management. Intrinsically, the most appropriate estimation techniques should be selected in order to
avoid the unbiased results. Further, it is essential to scrutinize carefully the characteristic of the
dependent variable, the efficiency score in this case. Other authors interpreted the efficiency score as
censored which is limited to the interval [0, 1] (Hoff, 2007). As such, the traditional regression methods
are not suited for this kind of data since the variable to be explained is partly discrete and continuous
(Wooldridge, 2009; Green, 2008). Taking into account the characteristic of efficiency score, Tobit
Regression Analysis is preferred in explaining the relationship between the efficiency score and the
exogenous (explanatory) variables. In a standard Tobit Model, the dependent variable is either zero or
some positive numbers. By choosing Yi for local government unit i to be the efficiency score, the model
can be written as follows: Y * i = βXi + εi , (5) Yi = Y * i , if Y * i> 0 and Yi = 0, otherwise. In equation (5), β
is a vector of parameters to be estimated and Xi is a vector of explanatory variables. Y * i is a latent
variable which can be observed as a limit to the point where the explanatory Page | 9 variables must
affect Yi to shift from 0 to some positive values. The coefficients derived from the results of Tobit
Regression Analysis can be interpreted based on any of the following: magnitude, direction, significance
or integrated first-order effect. Moreover, the sign of the said coefficients indicate the direction of the
influence, thus, standard hypothesis test can be used to determine the strength of the explanatory
variables to the efficiency score. (LeClere, 1994) Recently, there is an on-going debate whether Tobit
model is indeed the appropriate functional form for the second stage analysis. Hoff (2007) said that
Tobit Regression Approach is sufficient in evaluating the second stage analysis. On the contrary,
McDonald (2009) argued that Tobit estimation is not appropriate for the second stage approach
because the efficiency scores are fractional data and not generated by a censoring process. In the recent
paper, Simar and Wilson (2007) claimed that Tobit (or OLS) is invalid measure of inference in the second
stage because of the unidentified series of correlation between the efficiency score and the explanatory
variables. Using these conventional approaches in the second stage may violate the fundamental
assumption requirements for the basic regression model. The presence of measurement errors could
affect the observation in the efficiency frontier which may result in a more complicate serial correlation
on the observation within the portion of the plotted frontier. In order to remedy the problem, the
authors suggested the usage of truncated regression approach by bootstrap procedure. Since the is no
generally accepted technique for the second stage approach which consider the relationship of the
explanatory (exogenous) variables in the DEA models, a Tobit Regression Analysis was then adopted in
this study. 4. Data, Variables and Hypotheses The geographical location of the study will be limited to
Philippines, a tropical country situated in Southeast Asia in the Western Pacific Ocean. It is an
archipelago consists of 7,107 islands wherein the major islands are identified as Luzon, Visayas and
Mindanao. The different types of data used throughout the paper were obtained from various sources.
For the first stage, the study utilized the cross-section datasets consisting of: (a) 41 Nationwide LGUs
from the study conducted by Sumalde (2004) and (b) 17 Metro Manila LGUs from the study conducted
by the ADB (2003) due to the limitation for the availability of data regarding the financial aspect of
providing the waste services. In most of the countries worldwide specifically in the developing countries,
the cost of solid waste services is very high. It is estimated that the full cost of providing such services is
approximately 1 to 2 % of their Gross Domestic Product. And almost 50 to 70% of such cost is allotted
for the recurrent expenditures in labor, fuel, tires, oil and spare parts (Cointreau and Cravioto, 2005). As
such, the solid waste expenditure was the preferred as a single composite input variable because it
includes internal manpower costs, maintenance costs, depreciation interests, interest expenses and
other types of expenses. In utilizing the solid waste management funds, there Page | 10 are several
transformation processes which could produce different kinds of outputs. Like in other studies, the
widely identified output in the waste service production is the quantity of solid waste generation, which
either could be recycled, disposed or composed. As such, amount of solid waste generation (identified
herein as “solid waste generated”, for brevity) is the preferred as single composite output variable. In
the data available for this study, the solid waste expenditure (choice for input variable) was identified in
the study of Sumalde (2004) as cost of solid waste management expressed in Philippine Peso. The
computation for the cost of solid waste management consists of up-front costs, operating costs and
back-end costs of the system. On the other hand, the ADB (2003) study referred it as solid waste
management expenses expressed in Philippine Peso. As for the solid waste generated (choice for output
variable), it was identified as waste generation expressed in tons per day in the study of Sumalde (2004)
and it was calculated into tons per year because other variables on this study was expressed per year. In
the case of ADB study, it was identified as waste generated expressed in tons per day and it was also
calculated into tons per year. Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of the input and output variables
for this study as follows: Statistical Validation of the Input and Output: DEA is also prone to some
problem in the degrees of freedom just like any other empirically oriented methodologies because of its
orientation to relative efficiency. The number of degrees of freedom will increase together with the
number of DMUs but could lead to the decrease with the number of inputs and outputs variables in the
envelopment model (Cooper, et al., 2007). Specifically, Cooper, et al. (2007) presented in their book that
Banker, et al. (1989) suggested a rough rule of thumb for guidance in the selection of the number of
inputs and outputs is as follows: Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of the input and variables a. Nationwide
(41 samples) Mean Median Maximum Minimum Standard Deviation INPUT: Solid Waste Expenditure (in
Philippine peso) 72043 10360 1653331 515 261241 OUTPUT: Solid Waste Generated (tons/year) 43242
13908 553392 366 89935 b. Metro Manila (17 samples) Mean Median Maximum Minimum Standard
Deviation INPUT: Solid Waste Expenditure (in Philippine peso) 204335 94123 941828 2988 246994
OUTPUT: Solid Waste Generated (tons/year) 120997 83084 465078 9826 119365 Page | 11 n > max {m x
s, 3(m + s)} where n is the number of decision making units, m is the number of inputs and s is the
number of outputs. In this study, there is only one input variable and one output variable. Using the rule
of thumb in this study, there is only one input and one output, thus, resulting to n > max {1 x 1, 3(1 + 1)}
or simply, n > 6. As such, the number of input and output for the two types of datasets, either the 41
samples or 17 samples, satisfies the condition. Aside from satisfying the condition for the selection of
the number of the input and output variables, it is worthwhile to analyze the correlation relationship of
the said variables to probe determine if it complied with the isotonic property as recommended. The
isotonic property is a mathematical property which requires that there should be inter-correlation
between the inputs and outputs by having no negative correlation between them or that the input or
output variables are perfectly described with regards to their usage in the analysis (Avkiran, 1999). Like
the most of the researchers, the Pearson’s coefficient was commonly used to test the bivariate
correlation between the input and output variables with the objective of isotonic property
determination. As such, Table 2 presents the correlation matrix which justifies the inclusion of the
proposed input and output variables satisfy the isotonic property of non-negative correlation between
them. Note: “*” denotes that the probability is p< 0.0001 Selection of DEA Orientation: Aside from
choosing the input and output variables, there is also need to choose the type of orientation for
formulating the DEA model, either input orientation or output orientation. The input orientation is focus
on the input reduction while the output orientation puts emphasis on the output improvement.
Considering that the priority of the government policy is more focus in the input dimension, it is logical
to assume that the government can control the utilization of the limited resources which implies the
input orientation should be adopted. By choosing this orientation, it is believed that the control over the
input utilization relies on the service providers (for this case, the Local Government Units) and thus, they
can transform them in any way in order to be more efficient. In the second stage of the analysis, the
determinants of efficiency of the Philippine Waste Management Sector will be estimated using the
econometric model with the Scale Efficiency 1 as 1 The study will utilize the scale efficiency scores as
dependent variables for the following reasons: (a) it is frequently adopted assumption in the studies
especially using the input-orientated DEA; and (b) the results Table 2. Correlation Matrix between the
input and output variables NATIONWIDE METRO MANILA Solid Waste Expenditure Solid Waste
Generated Solid Waste Expenditure Solid Waste Generated Solid Waste Expenditure 1 - 1 - Solid Waste
Generated 0.9664* 1 0.9151* 1 Page | 12 the dependent variables derived in the first stage. The second
stage evaluation is initiated because the standard DEA models in the first stage only consider
controllable inputs variable. However, the efficiency of the waste sector could be attributed to non-
discretionary variables such as socioeconomic, political, environmental and other exogenous variables.
In the case of the waste sector, it is logical to assume that some of the LGUs are incapable to achieve the
“best practice” due to a relatively harsh conditions or atmosphere. And the effectiveness and
sustainability of the solid waste management systems depend upon their adaptability on the prevailing
conditions of the service provider (i.e. LGU) and/or country in which they are operating. These could
either be political, socio-demographic, economic, environmental or others (Hoornweg, D. and Bhada-
Tata, 2012; van de Klundert, A. and Anschütz, J., 2001). The explanatory variables to be considered in
this study are Land Area, Number of Barangays, Income per Capita, Poverty Incidence, Environmental
Governance and Dummy Variable (1 – if the local government unit has its own disposal facility or 0 -
otherwise). Further, Tables 3 present the descriptive statistics relative to the above-mentioned six (6)
explanatory variables as follows: Table 3. Descriptive Statistics for the second stage Nationwide case (41
observations) Mean Median Maximum Minimum Standard Deviation Land Area (sq. km) 107.9 83.2
425.5 21.5 87.3 Number of Barangays 46.8 33.0 188 8.00 43.5 Income per Capita (in Phil. peso) 1718
1566 4009 410.0 908.4 Poverty Incidence 16.2 13.8 48.3 2.72 12.3 Environmental Governance 4.19 4.28
4.90 1.98 0.58 Dummy (Disposal Facility ownership) 0.88 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.33 Metro Manila case (17
observations) Mean Median Maximum Minimum Standard Deviation Land Area (sq. km) 107.9 83.2
425.5 21.5 87.3 Number of Barangays 46.8 33.0 188 8.00 43.5 Income per Capita (in Phil. peso) 1718
1566 4009 410.0 908.4 Poverty Incidence 16.2 13.8 48.3 2.72 12.3 Environmental Governance 4.19 4.28
4.90 1.98 0.58 Dummy (Disposal Facility ownership) 0.88 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.33 Considering the absence of
prior empirical evidence on the relationship of some of the chosen explanatory variables, the discussion
therein relates to the descriptive studies and literatures indicate that most of the LGUs in the sample
experience scale efficiency rather than pure technical efficiency. Page | 13 regarding its effects on the
solid waste management system. The previously presented six (6) explanatory variables are briefly
discussed as follows: Land Area indicates the surface area of a Local Government Unit expressed in
square kilometers. Generally, the land area is covered or part of the solid waste management planning
especially for the coverage of the collection system or availability for the establishment of the disposal
facility. And it is assumed that the larger the land area is difficult to manage efficiently. In this study, the
source of this data is the study of Sumalde (2004) and the ADB (2003) for the case of Nationwide and
Metro Manila datasets, respectively. Number of Barangays: This variable presents the number of
barangays within the territorial jurisdiction of a certain LGU. Under the RA 9003, the LGUs are mandated
to implement the said law while the government agencies on the national level are required to support
them. In terms of areas of responsibility, the barangay is primarily tasked by the law to guarantee that
the households and establishments within their jurisdiction are properly practicing the waste
segregation thereby doing the reuse, reduce and recycling activities. In these arrangements, the
barangay is considered as the middle of various sectors playing the distinctive roles with corresponding
duties to fulfill in the solid waste management. These sectors include the following: households,
commercial, institutional and industrial establishments, local government units, private sector, non-
governmental organizations and the National Government (Solid Waste Management Made Easy, 2012).
And it is assumed that the LGU will have a hard time in attaining the optimal level of efficiency because
of the greater the number of barangays (or the highly congested area) to manage. Due to the limitation
of the available data, this study will consider the 2010 online database of National Statistical
Coordination Board (NSCB, 2012). In a span of seven years from 2003, there is no major increase or
decrease in the number of barangays. Income per Capita: This variable reflects the LGU economic level
expressed in terms of Philippine Peso per year. Studies show that greater economic level indicates
higher efficiency (Simões, et al., 2010). The sources of data for this variable are the study of Sumalde
(2004) and the ADB (2003), for the Nationwide dataset and Metro Manila dataset, respectively. Poverty
Incidence: This variable presents the proportion of the poor 2 from the population. Technically, it was
defined as the proportion of families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per
capita poverty threshold to the total number of families/individuals as stated in the National Statistical
Coordination Board Resolution No. 2, series of 2007. Considering that the survey is income-based, the
poverty incidence only describes the presence of income poverty among the population and does not
cover other forms of deprivation. The source of data for this variable is the 2003 City and Municipal
Level Poverty Estimates from 2 The term “poor” refers to the individuals and families whose income fall
below the poverty threshold as defined by the government and/or those that cannot afford in a
sustained manner to provide their basic needs of food, health, education, housing and other amenities
of life. (Republic Act No. 8425 otherwise known as Social Reform and Poverty Alleviation Act dated 11
December 1997). Page | 14 the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB, 2009). Environmental
Governance: This variable reflects the Local Government Unit’s performance in implementing the
provisions of the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act under the Local Government Performance
Management System. The Local Governance Performance Management System (LGPMS) is a self-
assessment, management and development tool that allows the local government units to evaluate
their capabilities and limitations in the delivery of the indispensable public services. Furthermore, it
presents the benchmark data for program prioritization, policy formulation and policy path towards the
development of the said LGU. Under the LGPMS, a performance scale was utilized to identify the
excellent performance and areas for improvement. And a scale of 5 denotes the excellent performance
while the rest of the scale (scale 1 to 4) indicates the capacities for improvements. In addition, the
LGPMS covers the following four areas: (a) Administrative Governance; (b) Social Governance; (c)
Economic Governance; and (d) Environmental Governance. Specifically, the Environmental Governance
examines the following areas: (a) Forest Ecosystem Management, (b) Freshwater Ecosystem
Management, (c) Coastal Marine Ecosystem Management, and (d) Urban Ecosystem Management. In
particular, the performance assessment on the implementation of the Ecological Solid Waste
Management Act falls within the purview of the Urban Ecosystem Management (LGPMS, 2012). In this
study, the Urban Ecosystem Management Performance Index under the Environmental Governance for
2010 is assumed because the change and improvement of the LGUs’ performance for the past ten years
is very slow (Atienza, 2011). Dummy Variable: The variable that takes the value of 1 in the event that the
Local Government Unit owns a disposal facility, and 0 – otherwise. The existence of a disposal facility
owned by the LGU is the cheapest and most necessary part of an integrated system in managing the
solid wastes. And the existence of such facility within the LGU may reduce the cost of transporting waste
from the collection points to the disposal sites outside it. Thus, it is expected that the coefficient
associated with this variable is positive. In this study, the source of this data is the study of Sumalde
(2004) and the ADB (2003) for the case of Nationwide and Metro Manila datasets, respectively. On the
basis of the six (6) sets of explanatory variables established within the proposed framework of analysis
and the assumption of non-existence of a significant relationship between the behavior of these
variables and the level of efficiency achieved by the LGUs, the following hypotheses were established for
verification in completing the analysis: H1 : (Land Area). There is a negative and significant relationship
between the land area and the efficiency level of the Local Government Unit in providing for the solid
waste management services. H2 : (Number of Barangays). There is a negative and significant relationship
between the land area and the efficiency level of the Local Government Unit in providing for the solid
waste Page | 15 management services. H3 : (Income per capita). There is a positive and significant
relationship between the land area and the efficiency level of the Local Government Unit in providing
for the solid waste management services. H4 : (Poverty Incidence). There is a negative and significant
relationship between the land area and the efficiency level of the Local Government Unit in providing
for the solid waste management services. H5 : (Environmental Governance). There is a positive and
significant relationship between the land area and the efficiency level of the Local Government Unit in
providing for the solid waste management services. H6 : (Dummy Variable – ownership of the disposal
facility). There is a positive and significant relationship between the land area and the efficiency level of
the Local Government Unit in providing for the solid waste management services 5. Empirical Results
and Discussion 5.1 First Stage Results Table 4 presents the analysis of the efficiency measures for the
solid waste management sector. The data showed that the inefficiency, as a whole, is due to both poor
input utilization (i.e. pure technical inefficiency) and the failure to operate at most productive scale size
(i.e. scale inefficiency). Specifically, in the case of Nationwide LGUs, the results implies that 51.4% points
out of the about 62.9% of the Over-all Technical Inefficiency is due to the solid waste management head
(who acted as managers) who are not following appropriate management practices and selecting
incorrect input combinations. The same indications of inefficiency was observed in the case of Metro
Manila LGUs wherein the results present that 39.0% points of the about 66.7% of the Over-all Technical
Inefficiency. The rest of the Over-all Technical Inefficiencies for both cases (Nationwide or Metro Manila)
are due to inappropriate scale of waste sector operations. Further, lower mean and high standard
deviation of the Pure Technical Efficiency to Scale Efficiency scores indicate that a greater portion of
Over-all Technical Inefficiency is due to Pure Technical Inefficiency. Summing up the results, there are
several advantages if the Philippine Solid Waste Management Sector (either in the Nationwide LGUs or
Metro Manila LGUs) would produce as efficient as their best practices. On average, if the LGUs in
providing the solid waste management services would produce as efficient as the best practices, they
could enhance their efficiency resulting to 19.0% operational earnings for the case of Nationwide LGUs
and 35.4% for the Metro Manila LGUs. According to the model findings, the optimal size would be about
300,000 inhabitants for each Philippine Solid Waste Management Sector nationwide which is similar to
the results of the study conducted by Simões, et al., (2010). Page | 16 Table 4. Descriptive Statistics of
Efficiency scores NATION-WIDE METRO MANILA OTE PTE SE OTE PTE SE Average Efficiency 0.371 0.485
0.811 0.333 0.610 0.646 Standard Deviation 0.258 0.296 0.264 0.286 0.380 0.324 Minimum 0.054 0.077
0.079 0.055 0.069 0.150 Median 0.312 0.374 0.950 0.215 0.607 0.604 Maximum 1 1 1 1 1 1 Average
Inefficiency (%) 62.9% 51.4% 19.0% 66.7% 39.0% 35.4% Number of observations 41 17 Notes: OTE –
Over-all Technical Efficiency; PTE – Pure Technical Efficiency; and SE – Scale Efficiency 5.2. Second Stage
Results In the second stage, the Tobit Regression results revealed that explanatory variables (land area,
number of barangays, income per capita, poverty incidence, environmental governance and the dummy
variable – owning the disposal facility or not) have significant effect on the performance of the LGUs as
reflected in Table 5. Table 5. Tobit Regression Analysis results NATIONWIDE METRO MANILA Variable
Coefficient Standard error Coefficient Standard error Land Area 0.0006* 0.0003 -0.0042** 0.0015
Number of Barangays -0.0018** 0.0007 -0.0005*** 0.0001 Income per Capita 0.0001* 0.0000 0.0391
0.0346 Poverty Incidence -0.0066* 0.0032 0.0742* 0.0342 Environmental Governance 0.0784* 0.0350
0.1272** 0.0413 Dummy (Disposal Facility ownership) 0.5059*** 0.1220 -0.1561 0.1606 Log Likelihood
5.57 2.27 Wald Test (Chi-square value) 157.7*** 290.5*** Note: The superscripts: *, **, *** denote that
the p< 0.05, p

6. Conclusion and Policy Implications

Globally, cost efficiency and economic effectiveness in providing solid waste services were triggered by
the budget restriction, increasing cost of solid waste and the growing importance of the said services in
the economic development of a country. In the Philippines, the LGUs with higher income and good
environmental governance can obtain better performance. Good governance foster public trust and
boosts credibility of their actions. On the other hand, having a bigger number of barangays can worsen
the LGU’s performance. Rapid increase in population may result to an increase in the number of
barangays. As such, strengthening the community-based solid waste management system in the
barangay level can improve LGUs’ performance. The implications for the mixed influence of land area,
poverty incidence and ownership of disposal facility are case-to3 “Slum areas” includes the devastated
areas which lack basic infrastructure and services, squatter areas (illegal settlers) and settlers with land
impediments (settlement has not formally documented). (Ballesteros, 2010) 4 “Informal sectors” are
individuals, families, groups or small enterprises engaged in the recovery of waste materials with
revenue generation as the motivation either on a full-time or part-time basis. (NSWMC, 2009) Page | 19
case basis. For instance, greater land area will provide for the establishment of disposal facility for the
nationwide case except in Metro Manila wherein establishment of disposal facility for some LGUs are no
longer possible. On the case of poverty incidence, integration of the informal sector to the formal solid
waste management system can contributes for the efficiency of the LGUs

Acknowledgement

The authors are grateful for the comments and suggestions of Professor Sanjaya Acharja, Faculty of
Graduate School of Economics, Ritsumeikan University.

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Press

A Study on Flood Control System Introducing Storage Tank in Manila City Hall Area
Conference Paper ·
May 2015

John Harold S. Castro1 , Glenda Aiselyn T. Badenas 1 , Wennie M. Caldit1 , Donamel M. Saiyari*1,2 ,
Brian G. Eurolfan1 1Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Adamson University,
Ermita, Manila, Philippines 1000 2Environmental Engineering Graduate Program, School of Civil,
Environmental and Geological Engineering, Mapua Institute of Technology, Intramuros, Manila,
Philippines 1002 *Corresponding author: dmsaiyari@adamson.edu.ph; Tel: +63-2-5242011

ABSTRACT

The low-lying topography, meteorological and hydrological conditions of the Metropolitan Manila
makes it vulnerable to floods and storm water. Various measures have been conducted for mitigation of
flood and inundation damages, but the drainage problem is still one of the major tasks. Historically,
Manila suffered major floods that occurred in 1940’s to 1980’s. The flooding inflicted serious damage
over the past half-century; these floods have become both more extensive and more severe as
experienced in recent storms such as Ondoy and Habagat. In order to address the problem, different
engineering works were utilized to provide flood protection and reduce flood damages. One alternative
flood control measure is the provision of retarding basin for the purpose of reduction of the peak
discharge of flood. Based on the hydrological, topographic and flooding information gathered from
government and private institutions, a storage tank facility is proposed as alternative flood control
measure in the study area to reduce the flood level and to identify the volume of the proposed storage
tank. The conceptual simplified model for detention tank simulation model has been used to simulate
the operation of the tanks and to evaluate the performance of the proposed structure.

Keywords: flood control, simulation model, storage tank, storm water

INTRODUCTION

Flooding is one of the most serious problems in the Philippines today. According to the Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), flooding is characterized
as an “abnormal progressive rise in the water level of a stream that may result in the overflowing by the
water of the normal confines of the stream with the subsequent inundation of areas which are not
normally submerged (2006).” Floods are categorized according to its natural and artificial causes. In the
city of Manila, the natural causes of flooding includes the overflowing of the Pasig-Marikina-San Juan
Rivers due to high river level coupled with high tides during the wet season from May to October;
inadequate inland drainage facilities to handle the excess local surface run-off particularly in the low-
lying central part of the city; high water level in Laguna Lake which affects the lake's shores for extended
periods, as a result of excessive run-off and limited lake outflows; and probable-land subsidence
(Daligdig, & Besana, 1993). In addition Liongson states that to naturally-induced flood disasters, the
man-made activities also aggravate the situation in Manila and its suburbs. Such human interventions
like squatter encroachment on the waterways resulting in blockage of its flow and restricted access for
undertaking maintenance activities; lack of upgrading the drainage capacity in the construction of roads,
water supplies, telephone system and other infrastructural facilities; rapid random urbanization which
results in increased surface runoff; bridges which are too low and/or too narrow to allow the passage of
increased flow in rivers and creeks during the wet season; and indiscriminate disposal of rubbish on the
roads, and in drains, rivers and channels which causes clogging and reduction of capacity of drainage
(UN-Habitat, 1995). Historically, Manila suffered major floods that occurred in 1940’s to 1980’s
(Department of Public Works and Highways; Japan International Cooperation Agency, 2003). Zoleta-
Nantes mentioned that subsequent flooding incidents caused thousands of Metro Manila residents
stranded on the streets or trapped in vehicles all night after heavy rains. Over the past halfcentury,
these floods have become both more extensive and more severe as experienced in recent storm Ondoy
and Habagat. In order to reduce and prevent the hazards due to flood waters, measures have been
implemented through physical measures which involve structural related works and non-physical
measures including land zoning ordinance, education and public information (JICA, 1990 & 2005).
Structural mitigation includes engineering works utilized either singly or in combination to provide flood
protection and reduction of flood damages along river reaches. The detention basin is one of the
effective methods available to mitigate the impact of urbanization on runoff (Lee, 1985). According to
Federal Highway Administration in 2011, one essential function of drainage is for flood control because
its capacity contributes to the severity of occurring floods especially in highly urbanized areas. For that
reason, maintenance and scheduled improvements of drainage must be undertaken. However, in
complex urban cities it is fairly difficult to redesign an entire drainage system since the project could
handicap the transportation system in the area which may in results in slowing down the industry. In
line with this, the researchers choose to introduce a detention storage tank as alternative flood control
facility which is built underground designed to convey storm water runoff in order to provide water
quantity control especially applied in urbanized environment particularly on small sites where no other
alternative is available for flood control due to space limitations.

METHODOLOGY

2.1 Research Design The design discharge can be estimated by specific discharge method or runoff
model using rainfall data. The runoff model was used in the study to compute urban runoff and flooding
in the study area. For the purpose of this study, the two models were initially simulated with and
without the storage tank component in the existing drainage system to observe the response of
hydrograph and discharge results for storm event Ondoy occurring over the Estero De Balete Creek.
Each runoff model was used to evaluate the effect of flood control to the initial design discharge. The
characteristics in terms of size of the storage tank were determined to accommodate the excess
discharge that occurred along the area where flooding was observed.

2.2 Model Formulation In this study, Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was utilized for runoff
computation (Metcalf and Eddy, 1971; Huber et al., 1992). The procedures to evaluate the effects of
detention storage used in this study includes inputting the geographical and physical data, estimation of
coefficients for subcatchment areas and conveyance elements. Finally, the effect of the flood control in
the study area was determined by comparing the hydrograph of the existing drainage system without
storage tank with the hydrograph of the drainage system with storage tank component. 2.3 System
Representation SWMM is a distributed model, which means that a study area can be subdivided into
any number of irregular subcatchments in manner to best capture the effect that spatial variability in
topography, drainage pathways, land cover, and soil characteristics have on runoff generation. 2.4
Computational Methods According to Huber et al. in 1992, EPA Storm Water Management Model
(SWMM) is a comprehensive mathematical model for simulation of urban runoff quantity and quality in
storm and combined sewer systems. All aspects of the urban hydrologic and quality cycles are
simulated, including surface and subsurface runoff, transport through the drainage network, storage
and treatment. SWMM is a physically based, discrete-time simulation model. It employs principles of
conservation of mass, energy, and momentum wherever appropriate. This study considered the
following physical processes which SWMM uses to model storm water runoff quantity such as surface
runoff, infiltration and flow routing. 2.4.1 Surface Runoff Rapid urbanization and development caused
almost zero absorption of rainwater by the ground due to the highly built-up status of Metro Manila. By
development of new areas, runoff from such areas considerably increases due to the provision of
impervious surfaces. In addition, MMDA (2010) identified the lack of integrated land use plans as one
real cause of flooding in Metro Manila which results in inefficient allocation, use and management of
land and other physical resources of the area. Likewise, a catchment surface may be conceptualized as a
“reservoir” with inflows due to rainfall (and possible upstream contributions) and outflows due to
evaporation, infiltration, and surface runoff as shown in Figure 1 (a). This has led to several methods for
conversion of rainfall into runoff, based on solutions to the reservoir routing equations (Dooge, 1973;
Bedient, P.B. et al., 2007). For use of reservoir methods, surface storage is spatially lumped; that is,
there is no variation with horizontal distance, and the storage is conceptualized as a “tank” with inflows
and outflows. Spatial variations may be incorporated by distributing this lumped storage over the
catchment to reflect parameter variation and so on Figure 1 (b). The distributed storage is then linked by
channel routing routines. The equations for reservoir routing can be solved both for conversion of
rainfall into runoff and for application to “real” reservoirs, such as detention basins. Continuity
Equation: Qi – Q = dV/dt where: Qi = inflow (cfs) Q = outflow (cfs) V = storage (ft3 ) t = time (s) (1) The
inflow Qi(t) may consist of upstream flows or rainfall or both and is assumed to be known as shown in
Equation 1. A second equation is thus needed to solve for the two unknowns, Q(t) and V(t), such as a
weir, orifice or rating curve. Storage indication and numerical (e.g., Runge– Kutta) methods are two
solution alternatives shown for this purpose. The methods are especially adaptable to complex rating
curve formed by the combination of multiple outlets. An additional alternative for the “second
equation” is to use the relationship as presented in Equation 2. Q = aVb Figure 1. Conceptual reservoir
models. (a) Individual catchment. (b) River Network. Where a and b are power-function parameters that
may be fit by regression technique or through physical relationship. For example, outflow by weir or
orifice or by Manning’s equation lends itself naturally to a power function, especially if depth h(t) is used
as the dependent variable instead of V(t), by the relationship in Equation 3. 𝑑𝑉 𝑑𝑡 = (ℎ) 𝑑ℎ 𝑑𝑡 where: A =
surface area and is a function of depth h. Then a weir outflow can be represented as in Equation 4. Q =
CwLw(h - h0) 1.5 , where: Lw = weir length (perpendicular to flow) h = water surface elevation upstream
of weir crest, h0 = weir crest elevation Cw = weir coefficient = Ce(2/3)√2𝑔, illustrating its dimensionality
(length 1/2/time), (3) (4) Rain Precipitation Infiltration Runoff (a) (b) (2) 2015 International Conference
on Environmental Quality Concern, Control and Conservation, May7-8, 2015, Kaohsiung, Taiwan ROC Ce
= effective discharge coefficient, and g = gravitational acceleration The weir coefficient Cw is obviously
dimensional and depends on several factors, especially the weir geometry (Davids, 1952;King and Brater
1963; Daugherty et al., 1985; French, 1985). Approximate values for sharp-crested, rectangular
horizontal weirs perpendicular to the flow direction are Cw = 3.3 ft0.5/s for U.S. customary units and Cw
= 1.8 ft0.5/s for metric units. An orifice would be included as shown in Equation 5. Q = CdA0 √(2g(h- h0))
where: Cd = discharge coefficient, A0 = area of orifice, h = water surface elevation, h0 = elevation of
orifice centerline. Submerged culverts often behave as orifices with discharge coefficient ranging from
0.62 for a sharp-edged entrance to nearly 1.0 for well-rounded entrance (Daugherty et al., 1985). Apart
from their universal presence along highways, culverts are widely used as outlets from detention ponds
in urban areas. Finally, Manning’s equation can be used as the second relationship between storage and
outflow. For a wide rectangular channel (as for overland flow) the hydraulic radius is equal to the depth,
and Manning’s equation has the form in Equation 6. 𝑄 = 𝑊 𝑘𝑚 𝑛 (ℎ − 𝐷𝑆) 5/3𝑆 1/2 , where: W = width
of (overland) flow, n = Manning’s roughness DS = depression storage (depth), S = slope Each
subcatchment surface is treated as a nonlinear reservoir. In the non-linear reservoir method, the
catchment is conceptualized as very shallow reservoir. The discharge from this hypothetical reservoir is
assumed to be a non-linear function of the depth of water in the reservoir. The continuity relationship
for the system is shown in Equation 7. 𝐴 𝑑𝑦 𝑑𝑡 = 𝐴 ( 𝐼 − 𝑓) − 𝑄 where: A = catchment area I = rainfall
intensity f = the infiltration rate Q = the discharge at the catchment outlet The model assumes uniform
overland flow at the catchment outlet at a depth equal to the difference between y and yd based on the
Manning friction relationship, the catchment discharge, Q is given by in Equation 8. (5) (6) (7) 𝑄 = 𝑊 𝑛 (
𝑦 − 𝑦𝑑 ) 5/3 𝑆 1/2 where:, W = a representative width for the catchment n = Manning’s roughness
coefficient for the catchment yd = average depth of depression storage S = average surface slope
Substituting Equation 7 into Equation 8 yields a non-linear differential form of the equation for y. A
simple finite difference form of the equation is used to solve for the depth y at the end of each time
step. This is Equation 9. 𝑦2 − 𝑦1 ∆𝑡 = 𝐼 − 𝑓 − 𝐶𝑊𝑆 1/2 𝐴𝑛 ( 2 − 𝑦1 2 − 𝑦𝑑) 5/3 where: Δt = time step
increment y1 = depth at the beginning of the time step y2 = depth at the end of the time step I =
average rainfall rate over the time step f = average infiltration rate over the time step. For each time
step, three separate calculations are performed. First, an infiltration equation is used to compute the
average potential infiltration rate over time step, then Equation 9 is solved iteratively for y2, and finally,
Eq. 3.2 yields the corresponding discharge. This method couples the process of infiltration and surface
runoff. The non-linear model assumes that infiltration occurs at potential rate over the entire surface
area whenever the ponded depth is non-zero. 2.4.2 Infiltration Model It assumes that the total
infiltration capacity of a soil can be found from the soil's tabulated Curve Number. The Soil Conservation
Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff volume for a given
rainfall event. This method was originally developed by the US Department of Agriculture, Soil
Conservation Service and documented in detail in the National Engineering Handbook, Sect. 4:
Hydrology (NEH-4) SCS, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1985, 1993 (Mishra and Singh, 2006). It accounts for many of
the factors affecting runoff generation including soil type, land use and treatment, surface condition,
and antecedent moisture condition, incorporating them in a single CN parameter. Group C soils have
low infiltration rate because typically this soil type is composed of 20 % to 40% percent clay and less
than 50 % sand. According to Mishra and Singh in 2006, SCS (1964) runoff estimates assume a
relationship between accumulated total storm rainfall P, runoff Q, and infiltration plus initial abstraction
(F + Ia). Ia was shown to be equal to 0.2S, based on SCS watershed studies. It is assumed that Equation
10. 𝐹 𝑆 = 𝑄 𝑃𝑒 (8) (9) (10) 2015 International Conference on Environmental Quality Concern, Control and
Conservation, May7-8, 2015, Kaohsiung, Taiwan ROC Wherein, F is infiltration occurring after runoff
begin, S is potential abstraction, Q is direct runoff (inches), and Pe is effective storm runoff (P - Ia). Given
F = (Pe - Q) and Pe = (P - Ia) = (P – 0.2S) based on data from small watersheds, one can show in Equation
11. 𝑄 = (𝑃− 0.2𝑆) 2 𝑃+0.8 𝑆 The SCS method uses the runoff curve number CN, related to potential
abstraction S by CN = 100/(S + 10), or Equation 12. S ( in ) = 1 00 /C N – 10. 2.4.3 Flow Routing Flow
routing within a conduit link in SWMM is governed by the conservation of mass and momentum
equations for gradually varied, unsteady flow (i.e., the Saint Venant flow equations). The original Saint
Venant equations include the conservation of mass as shown in Equation 13. (𝐴𝑉) 𝜕𝑥 + 𝜕𝐴 𝜕𝑡 = 0 and
the conservation of momentum in Equation 14. 𝜕(𝑉) 𝜕𝑡 + 𝑉 𝜕𝑉 𝜕𝑥 + 𝑔 ( 𝜕ℎ 𝜕𝑥 + 𝑆𝑓) = 0 where: A = cross-
sectional area of the channel, m2 V = velocity, m/s; x = distance along channel, m; t = time, in seconds
(s); g = acceleration due to gravity, m/s2 h = water surface elevation, m; Sf = friction slope, in m/m.
Dynamic Wave routing solves the complete one-dimensional Saint Venant flow equations and therefore
produces the most theoretically accurate results. These equations consist of the continuity and
momentum equations for conduits and a volume continuity equation at nodes. Hence, For the purpose
of this study the researcher chose Dynamic Wave Routing Method for solving this equation. The amount
of surcharged flow is defined as Qs = Qin - Qf; in which Qin is the total inflow discharge from the
upstream conduit, and Qf is the design full capacity of the downstream conduit, defined in Equation 15.
𝑄𝑓 = 1 𝑛𝑐 𝐴𝑓𝑅𝑓 2/3 𝑆𝑓 1/2 where: nc = Manning’s roughness of conduit Af = full cross section area of
conduit Rf = the hydraulic radius for full conduit flow Sfc = the friction slope of conduit. (12) (11) (14)

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

1 Watershed Characteristics The model was applied to the catchment delineated based on the existing
drainage laterals in Metro Manila Index map. The drainage catchment is divided into 18 sub-catchments.
Table 1 summarizes the parameters of each subcatchment. For the calculation of impervious surface
percentage, the researchers considered the area as commercial and industrial zones which have
corresponding value of 85% percent total surface imperviousness based on the land use description of
the area. Accordingly, the zoning of the area serve as the basis of the researcher to estimate the value of
Manning’s “n” for overland flow which is taken as 0.011 for smooth asphalt surface. Table 1 Geometric
Parameters of Subcatchment Subcatchment Area (hec) Percent Total Imperviousness Width (ft) Slope
(%) Hydrological Soil Group Manning’s N value 1 4.4369 85 121.81 2.3 C .011 2 3.1921 85 72.58 1.1 C
.011 3 3.5590 85 58.03 2.3 C .011 4 2.4518 85 44.99 2.5 C .011 5 4.5166 85 82.88 5.1 C .011 6 3.3172 85
30.97 2.8 C .011 7 0.9858 85 9.2 1.5 C .011 8 2.6966 85 25.18 4.8 C .011 9 0.3797 85 13.07 1.5 C .011 10
2.8110 85 38.22 7.8 C .011 11 0.6223 85 11.42 1.5 C .011 12 4.4042 85 14.14 2.4 C .011 13 0.8563 85
19.46 3.5 C .011 14 1.3383 85 12.49 1.5 C .011 15 1.1627 85 27.44 1.5 C .011 16 0.9087 85 29.28 3.5 C
.011 17 2.0203 85 47.69 1.5 C .011 18 1.6435 85 56.58 1.5 C .011 Total 42.59 The researchers modeled
the area’s soil classification as Soil Group C which indicates that the soil has moderately high runoff
potential. The soil classification was based on the results of field investigation and laboratory testing
conducted within the vicinity of the study area. Very loose to loose sands and non-plastic silts generally
characterized the upper layer of the site subsoil. The slope of the area ranges from 7.8% to 1.5 % which
considered an average/mild slope. 3.2 Storm Characteristics The storm event Ondoy was considered in
the simulation to determine the response of the design volume of the tank to possible extreme event.
The rainfall data given by the PAGASA shown in Table 2 is recorded in 6 – hour time interval at Port Area
station for two-day period. Based on the Rainfall data given the computed total event precipitation for
Storm event Ondoy 2015 International Conference on Environmental Quality Concern, Control and
Conservation, May7-8, 2015, Kaohsiung, Taiwan ROC Source: PAGASA – Port Area Table 2: Rainfall
Intensity for storm event Ondoy was 1566.073 mm for 6 hour period. The model was continuously
simulated to a rainfall event as shown in Table 3 that the capacity of drainage can accommodate
without significant flooding will be observed. 3.3 Simulation Results Table 4 shows the summary of
precipitation, infiltration and run off in each subcatchment area. Runoff in the area is relatively due to
high imperviousness of the area. Table 4. Summary of Subcatchment Run off Date Elapsed Time (hr)
Intensity (mm/hr) Day 1 0 0 6 1 12 3 18 12 Day 2 0 54 6 9 12 2 18 1 Date Elapsed Time (hr) Intensity
(mm/hr) 9/25/2009 0 0 6 1 12 19 18 30 9/26/2009 0 169 6 37 12 5 18 3 Subcatchment Total
Precipitation Total Infiltration Total Runoff mm Total Runoff (x10 ^6) liter Peak Runoff CMS Runoff Coeff
S1 1566.25 139.42 1425.76 63.26 1.96 0.910 S2 1566.25 139.42 1424.91 45.48 1.41 0.910 S3 1566.25
139.42 1425.97 50.71 1.57 0.910 S4 1566.25 139.42 1425.24 34.94 1.08 0.910 S5 1566.25 139.42
1425.75 64.40 1.99 0.910 S6 1566.25 139.42 1424.07 47.24 1.46 0.909 S7 1566.25 139.42 1423.32 14.03
0.43 0.909 S8 1566.25 139.42 1424.62 38.42 1.19 0.910 S9 1566.25 139.42 1425.77 5.41 0.17 0.910 S10
1566.25 139.42 1425.63 40.07 1.24 0.910 S11 1566.25 139.42 1424.80 8.87 0.27 0.910 S12 1566.25
139.42 1420.54 62.56 1.94 0.907 S13 1566.25 139.42 1425.78 12.21 0.38 0.910 S14 1566.25 139.42
1423.32 19.05 0.59 0.909 S15 1566.25 139.42 1425.23 16.57 0.51 0.910 S16 1566.25 139.42 1426.18
12.96 0.40 0.911 S17 1566.25 139.42 1425.23 28.79 0.89 0.910 S18 1566.25 139.42 1425.77 23.43 0.72
0.910 Source: JICA – Port Area Table 3: Rainfall Event with I max = 54 mm/hr Table 5 shows the conduit
geometric shape and its length. The corresponding Manning n for Cement conduit material is given as
0.011. This drainage line has 17 circular, 3 rectangular closed conduit, and 3 rectangular open channels
representing the Estero de Balete Creek. Table 5. Summary of Conduit Geometric Properties Link Length
Manning N Shape Dimension C – 1 364.24 0.011 Circular .76 C – 2 439.83 0.011 Circular .76 C – 3 613.26
0.011 Rectangular Closed .88 x .57 C – 4 263.96 0.011 Circular .61 C – 5 281.03 0.011 Circular .76 C – 6
346.86 0.011 Circular 1.07 C – 7 130.15 0.011 Circular .61 C – 8 351.43 0.011 Circular .76 C – 9 97.84
0.011 Circular .76 C – 10 196.29 0.011 Circular .76 C – 11 122.83 0.011 Circular .61 C – 12 364.24 0.011
Rectangular Closed .88 x .57 C – 13 75.9 0.011 Rectangular Closed .88 x .57 C – 14 242.62 0.011 Circular
1.07 C – 15 142.62 0.011 Circular .61 C – 16 241.1 0.011 Circular .76 C – 17 281.03 0.011 Circular .76 C –
18 192.63 0.011 Circular .92 C – 19 69.21 0.011 Circular .92 E2 – E1 290.55 0.02 Rectangular Open
1.5x13 E3 – E2 197.87 0.02 Rectangular Open 1.5x13 C26 70.00 0.02 Rectangular Open 1.5x13 Elapsed
Time (Hours) Elapsed Time (Hours) (a) (b) Figure 2. Simulation with Tank (a) and Simulation without Tank
(b) Table 6 shows the flooded hours and total flood volume experience in the area during the extreme
storm event Ondoy. Based on the result shown the area still experienced inundation but notably, the
Flood volume and duration is significantly reduced. As shown in the Flood Hydrograph in Figure 2. The
data shows that the system will experience flooding with 54 mm/hr Flooding ( cms ) Flooding ( cms )
2015 International Conference on Environmental Quality Concern, Control and Conservation, May7-8,
2015, Kaohsiung, Taiwan ROC rainfall. This was considered to optimize the storage tank volume capacity
during peak rainfall event occurrence. Table 6. Comparison of Simulation With and Without Detention
Tank Without Detention Tank With Detention Tank ( I=169mm/hr ) With Detention Tank ( I = 54 mm/hr )
Node Hours Flooded Total Flood Volume 10^6 liter Hours Flooded Total Flood Volume 10^6 liter Hours
Flooded Total Flood Volume 10^6 liter J01 6.06 27.04 6.06 26.695 - - J03 6.01 10.66 6 11.15 - - J06 17.77
12.12 17.77 12.12 6.01 2.651 J08 6.05 23.38 6.05 23.79 - - J09 6.08 16.32 6.07 16.77 - - J10 6.14 22.20
6.15 21.93 5.67 1.04 J11 6.52 33.52 6.51 33.02 5.01 0.84 J13 12.07 29.62 12.07 29.61 6.01 6.39 J15 12.08
34.834 12.07 34.81 5.96 7.38 J16 6.14 26.34 6.14 26.41 - - E1 .02 .83 - - - - E3 1.07 314.13 .60 10.86 - -
This study determined the location of the proposed detention in Luneta Park. The location is practically
one of the few available spaces for the construction of such large structure and it is also located
adjacent to bodies of water such as Estero de Balete and Manila Bay. The total area of the tank as shown
in figure is approximately 10,400 m2 . The required area for the structure can be reduced by increasing
its depth. Since we need to store a total volume of 50,000 m3 , with a depth of 10 meter, the area is
reduce to 5,000 m2 . However, increasing the depth of the tank will require equivalent increased in the
capacity of the pump.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the abovementioned results, this study concludes the following: 1. The largest feasible volume
of the detention tank based on rainfall intensity within the area is 50,000 m3 . (A = 5,000 m2 x depth =
10 m); 2. The results of the simulation showed that the tank significantly reduced the flooding in the
area during extreme storm event like Ondoy, inevitably, the design size of the tank cannot totally
eradicate the flooding in the area during such event; and 3. Based on the available the location, the
researchers chose to locate the tank outside the study area situated in the Luneta Park since the area
can accommodate the construction of such large structure and due to its proximity to the nearest
natural bodies of water for discharging point.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This research was funded by the Adamson University Center for Research and Continuing Education
(AdU-CRECE) for the presentation of the paper to Environmental Quality Concern, Control and
Conservation (EQC) 2015 International Conference.
REFERENCES

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Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. (2006). Causes and Types of
Floods. Retrieved September 18, 2012, from
http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/genmet/floods/cause_types.html. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical
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18, 2012, from http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/genmet/floods/def_natur.html. UN-Habitat.(1995) The
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Statistics of tropical cyclone landfalls in the Philippines: unusual characteristics of 2013
Typhoon Haiyan
Article in Natural Hazards · September 2015
Hiroshi Takagi1 • Miguel Esteban2

Abstract

The unusual statistical characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan were investigated using the JTWC best track
data from 1945 to 2013, particularly focusing on tropical cyclones making landfall in the Philippines.
Haiyan generated the strongest winds among a collection of over 400 past storms, which was 16 %
greater than the second strongest typhoon on record (Typhoon Zeb in 1998). The forward speed of
Haiyan was nearly twice as fast as the average speed of these weather systems and could be the fastest
typhoon on record. Thus, Haiyan can be characterized as both the fastest moving and strongest typhoon
measured in the area. The return period for a Haiyan-class typhoon to make landfall was estimated to
be 200 years. A statistical analysis also indicated that the number of tropical cyclone making landfall
around Leyte Island in the Philippines—the area most severely damaged by Haiyan—has been steadily
increasing over the past 7 decades. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that both Haiyan
and Zeb occurred during seasons that were characterized by remarkably warm SSTs over the seas
surrounding the Philippines.

Keywords Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) · Tropical cyclone landfalls · Philippines · Return period · Forward
speed · Storm surge

1 Introduction

Typhoon Haiyan (or Yolanda, its local name) struck the Philippines on November 8, 2013, causing
enormous damage to Leyte, Samar, and many other islands. A total of 6245 individuals were reported
dead, 28,626 injured, and 1039 are still missing (NDRRMC, as of 6 March 2014). Haiyan was one of the
strongest typhoons known to have ever made & Hiroshi Takagi htakagi.jp@gmail.com 1 Tokyo Institute
of Technology, Tokyo, Japan 2 The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan landfall, not only in the Philippines
but in the entire Western North Pacific. Its intensity was among the highest ever observed for tropical
cyclones globally (Lin et al. 2014). The forward speed of the typhoon, reaching around 41 km/h at
landfall, was also unusual among other events of comparable intensity during the past 6 decades in the
Western North Pacific (Takagi et al. 2014, 2015). As a result of its strong intensity, the typhoon caused a
massive storm surge in many islands in the Philippines. A maximum inundation height of 7 m was
observed in Tacloban City in Leyte Island, where the largest number of casualties took place (Takagi et
al. 2014). Maximum hindcast significant wave heights during the storm reached up to 19 m off Eastern
Samar, though they decreased to less than 5 m in Leyte Gulf near Tacloban (Bricker et al. 2014). The
storm also brought about heavy precipitation that reached up to 615 mm between November 3 and 12,
over the entire Philippines (Nguyen et al. 2014a). Haiyan, although very similar in size to Hurricane
Katrina in 2005, had deeper convective clouds, so held more precipitable water (Galvin 2014). The
Philippines sits in what has been called the ‘‘Tornado Alley’’ of tropical cyclones (TCs)—the annual TC
landfall numbers in the Philippines varied from 3.6 to 6.0 in the period between 1902 and 2005 (Kubota
and Chan 2009), while the annual average number was considered to be 6.5 TCs per year between 1970
and 1989 (Shoemaker 1991), showing some discrepancy. The average TC’s wind speed of typhoons just
before making landfall in the Philippines was 66.9 knots, with a standard deviation of 34.4 knots
(Shoemaker 1991). Garcia-Herrera et al. (2007) examined the chronology of TCs around the Philippines,
as documented by Spanish Jesuits, and highlight how a total of 652 TC events happened during the
period 1566–1900, indicating the long experience of this country with such weather events. In the
present paper, the authors examine the uniqueness of this typhoon in terms of its track and intensity,
compared with records of past typhoons. Particularly, the focus will be placed on the statistics of TC
landfalls in the Philippines as the weather system’s intensity at this time is the most critical factor for the
generation of storm surges. The statistics clearly demonstrate the extraordinary features of Haiyan,
which help to explain the high mortality rates that resulted as consequence of the extremely strong
gusts and subsequent storm surge. The present paper also estimates the reoccurrence landfall return
period of a strong typhoon with an intensity equivalent to that Haiyan. 2 Tropical cyclone landfalls and
their intensities between 1945 and 2013 Takagi et al. (2014) analyzed past typhoon tracks in the
Western North Pacific (WNP) to verify how Haiyan was historically unusual, in terms of both its intensity
and path. To extend this research, the present paper specifically focuses on the statistics of TC landfalls
in the Philippines between 1945 and 2013 using the so-called Best Track Data, obtained from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The data consist of time, central position, and the maximum sustained
wind speed (hereinafter simply referred to as ‘‘wind speed’’) in knots every 6 h. The authors developed
a FORTRAN code which can detect the approximate landfall point at which a TC track intersects a
coastline from Global Self-consistent, Hierar- chical, High-resolution Shoreline Database (GSHHS)
provided by University of Hawaii and NOAA. TC intensities at the time of landfall can be also estimated
by interpolating Best Track Data points from shortly before and after landfalls. As TCs generally reach
their peak in intensity prior to landfall (Shoemaker 1991; Scheitlin and Elsner 2009), this interpolation
process is expected to improve the estimation of the intensity at this point. Figure 1a shows TC landfall
points along the Eastern coasts of four major islands (Luzon, Samar, Leyte, and Mindanao) in the
Philippines. There were a total of 406 landfalls between 1945 and 2013, an average of 5.9 times per
year. The wind speed distribution at landfall is shown in Fig. 1b. From this figure, it is obvious that the
wind speeds of Haiyan at the time of landfall (165.8 knots) were the strongest recorded in the
Philippines, 16 % stronger than the second strongest event on record (142.7 knots in 1998 during
Typhoon Zeb, known in the Philippines as Iliang). The landfall frequency is shown in Fig. 1c, from which it
is possible to attempt to observe both short and decadal trends at different latitudes. The figure
presents trends for every 2-degree latitude interval from (a) 18°N to (f) 6°N. It appears that the annual
frequency varies significantly from year to year, which clearly demonstrates the irregular nature of TCs.
The average landfall frequency for each latitude zone is (a) 1.57 times (standard deviation is 1.24), (b)
1.30 times (1.14), (c) 0.87 times (1.08), (d) 1.03 times (1.03), (e) 0.57 times (0.79), and (f) 0.14 times
(0.39), respectively. The overall trends between 1945 and 2013 were estimated by a linear regression
analysis. A test to detect any linear trends was carried out using the statistical method ANOVA (Analysis
of Variance), which can determine whether each line shows a significant increasing or decreasing trend.
According to the results obtained, it was found that only the latitude range (d) 10°N–12°N, which
encompasses Leyte Island, shows a significant increase in TC landfall. In this area, typhoon frequencies
appear to have increased Fig. 1 a TC landfall points along the Eastern coasts of four major islands in the
Philippines. b Wind speeds (1-min maximum sustained wind speeds) at landfalls, and c the frequency of
TC landfalls between 1945 and 2013 for each two-degree latitudezones by around ?0.02 times per year
(at the 95 % confidence level), while other lines do not show any particular upward or downward trends.

3 TC forward speeds at the time of landfall A TC’s forward speed is a significant parameter which has
been overlooked in previous studies (Rego and Li 2009). It is important to note how a moving pressure
with a storm can generate long waves that propagate ahead of the storm and cause an initial setup
along the coast. This occurs when the forward speed of the storm is close to the celerity of a shallow
water wave for the depth over which the storm is traveling (Sorensen 1997). Figure 2 indicates the
relationship between wind speeds and forward speeds for the strongest 67 TCs among the 406 TCs
which made landfall in the Philippines between 1945 and 2013. The forward speed of each event was
calculated using the geographical positions of the weather system immediately before and after landfall.
From the figure, it is clear that these two parameters do not particularly show any positive or negative
correlation to each other (correlation coefficient R = -0.017). In fact, the forward speed of Haiyan at the
time of landfall, 41 km/h on average with a standard deviation of 7.3 km/h, is nearly twice as fast as the
average speed of TCs, 22.6 km/h, and ranked top among all TCs. Therefore, Haiyan could be considered
the fastest typhoon in addition to having the strongest intensity on record. If assuming wind speeds and
forward speeds are independent of each other, the yearly chance that any given typhoon could become
the fastest typhoon as well as strongest typhoon simultaneously can be estimated to be 1/4489, which
clearly demonstrates one of unusual characteristics of Haiyan. 4 Reoccurrence interval of a Haiyan-class
typhoon High wind speeds due to typhoons pose a threat to the stability of structures and can bring
significant storm surges to coastal communities. An accurate estimation of the probability of occurrence
of extreme wind speeds is important to improve disaster management in a given area. Such estimates
are commonly expressed in terms of the quantile value XT, i.e., the maximum wind speed which is
exceeded, on average, once every T years, the return period value (Palutikof et al. 1999). The Weibull
probability density function is a good model for wind speed distributions (Hennessey 1977). A Weibull
probability density function (pdf) distribution can be calculated as follows, (1) where a is referred to as
the shape parameter and b as the scale parameter. In the present research, the maximum likelihood
method was applied to estimate these parameters from the JTWC best track data between 1945 and
2013. Figure 3 indicates the total number of annual maximum wind speeds events (a total of 69
typhoons, one for each year between 1945 and 2013, including Haiyan) that fall into each 20-knot
interval along with the corresponding best-fitted Weibull distribution expressed by Eq 1. The Anderson–
Darling (A–D) test (Stephens 1974) can be used to test whether a sample of data comes from a
population with a specific distribution. Many researchers prefer to use the A–D test as it gives more
weight to the tails than the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test (Palutikof et al. 1999). The p value is
calculated to be 0.870, and this indicates that the annual maximum wind data can indeed be modeled as
a Weibull distribution with the parameters obtained. Typically estimates of the 50-year wind speed
return period require 10–20 years of observations (Palutikof et al. 1999). Therefore, the present
analysis, based on 7 decades of data, would appear to be a reasonably long observation sample.
However, it should be noted that a sample of extreme wind data exhibits a large variability. Therefore,
the return values estimated with best-fitted distribution functions can vary considerably around the true
values of population (Goda 2000). The cumulative probability of the Weibull distribution can be
calculated as follows, Fig. 3 Total counts of annual maximum wind speeds between 1945 and 2013 along
with the corresponding best-fitted Weibull distribution. The wind speed of Haiyan was estimated to be
165.8 knots at the time of landfall ¼ f ― ð Þg Fig. 4 Relationship between return periods and wind
speeds derived from extreme value analysis using a Weibull distribution. The return period of Haiyan is
estimated to be 200 years, while that of typhoon Zeb in 1998 is 19 years (2) For the quantile XT with
return period T, the return period is given by T 1= 1 F XT . In Fig. 4, the relationship between return
periods and wind speeds is drawn, as well as the two strongest typhoons ever to make made landfall the
Philippines, namely 2013 Haiyan and 1998 Zeb. The return period of Haiyan was calculated to be 200
years, while that of 1998 Zeb is 19 years. The methodologies introduced in this section are also
applicable to examine the uniqueness of the other characteristics of TCs, such as the forward speed. The
forward speed of Haiyan, which was as fast as 41 km/h, was estimated to have a 188-year return period,
with the parameters of Eqs. (1) and (2) set to be a = 3.367 and b = 25.074. WNP (July–November). Figure
5 presents the SST distribution of the typhoon season of 2013 (the year in which Haiyan occurred),
demonstrating how warm pool of water exceeding 29 °C developed over an extensive area of the basin,
which can be considered to be an ideal situation to fuel energy to the storm. It is remarkable that the
warmer surface extends westward in a tongue shape that touches Leyte Gulf, fitting very well with the
actual course of Haiyan. Figure 6 suggests that the SSTs around the Philippines have been increasing,
particularly over the past two decades. It is also interesting to note that stronger typhoons tended to
occur during recent warmer temperature years, which can be corroborated by the fact that 8 out of 10
strongest typhoons which made landfall on the Philippines in the last seven decades occurred in the last
three decades, which showed relatively warmer SSTs. Figure 7 demonstrates that the SST in the year
2013 was remarkably high, reaching up to 29.6 °C, which was ranked in the 97th percentile in the period
between 1945 and 2013. The second most powerful typhoon, Zeb in 1998, occurred during the warmest
SST period in the last 7 decades. Although high SSTs appears not to be only factor that governs TC
intensities, it is clear that warmer sea surfaces provide more thermodynamic energy to the atmosphere
and allow for the generation or more intense TCs such as Haiyan and Zeb

Discussion

compared to other past typhoons in the WNP, the path which Haiyan took was almost the lowest in
latitude among similar intensity events, starting around 6°N, where relatively few typhoons take place
(Takagi et al. 2014). However, the number of TCs which made landfall in Leyte Island (as Haiyan did) was
calculated to be once a year on average, which is more frequent than in the southern island of
Mindanao, which typically experiences typhoons only once every 2–7 years. Interestingly, as discussed
previously, Haiyan struck the coast between latitudes 10°N–12°N, where the frequency of TC has been
increasing in the past decades by around ?0.02 times per year. Liu et al. (2009) indicate that the position
of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted southwards in latitude between 1949 and 2005.
While this could have contributed to a decrease in TC numbers over the WNP (Liu et al. 2009), it could
be possible that it has helped to increase numbers in a relatively lower latitude zone within the WNP,
such as Leyte and Samar Islands. Because over 85 % of all TCs form within or just on the poleward side
of the ITCZ (Gray 1975), the shift of the ITCZ southwards could cause an increase in TC numbers in a
lower latitude basin. However, further studies would need to be conducted to corroborate this
hypothesis. One of the most unusual characteristics of Haiyan is that it was found to be the fastest
typhoon in addition to the strongest typhoon in the past 7 decades. Apart from its statistical
unusualness, this is very important from the point of view of disaster management. For example, local
authorities in charge of disaster prevention need to prepare for a typhoon and warn inhabitants to
evacuate. However, for the case a typhoon approaching at a very fast speed the time available for
preparation would be reduced, and it appears necessary for disaster risk managers to factor into their
plans contingencies for fast moving typhoons. It should be also noted that the peak storm surge occurs
before landfall with slower moving storms, while it occurs after landfall for faster moving storms
(Jelesnianski 1972). Haiyan approached very quickly with a forward speed of 41 km/h toward Leyte.
According to rainfall intensity detected by the Doppler radar system in Cebu Island (PAGASA 2013), the
typhoon’s center was positioned more than 50 km west to Tacloban when the storm surge was highest
in Tacloban. In fact, a movie taken during the passage of Haiyan (iCyclone 2013) shows very strong wind
around 7:00 A.M., when the typhoon made landfall at Tolosa in Leyte Island (about 20 km south from
Tacloban), though extensive flood did not yet occur at that time. These observations corroborate that
the peak storm surge indeed took place after landfall for the case of this fast moving storm, as do
numerical simulations which shows that the peak storm surge occurred around 8:00–8:30 A.M. on
November 8, 2013 in Tacloban (Takagi et al. 2014). The discrepancy between the times when the peak
wind and storm surge take place is expected to cause some difficulty for late evacuees since people
would hesitate to leave their houses when there is extremely strong wind and heavy rain outside.
Furthermore, Rego and Li (2009) demonstrated by a numerical experiment for Hurricane Rita that
increasing forward speed increases peak surge heights while decreasing the inland volume of flood.
Therefore, it is possible that the storm surge was substantially more pronounced due to the fast speed
of Haiyan, which exacerbated the damage to coastal communities. All these issues help to explain the
high mortality due to this event, which clearly surprised local residents, despite their frequent
experiences with typhoons (Esteban et al. 2015). The return period of a typhoon with a similar intensity
to that of Haiyan was estimated to be 200 years, which is far less frequent when compared to the
second strongest typhoon, Zeb in 1998, with a return period of 19 years. This arguably demonstrates the
rarity of Haiyan compared with other TCs in the past 7 decades. Though the probability of reoccurrence
of a typhoon of similar intensity would appear small, it should be recognized that a large magnitude of
variability exists. In this study, the Weibull distribution was used to estimate the return periods.
However, the adoption of the other fitting curves such as generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)
would result in different return periods. Jagger and Elsner (2006) estimated the 100- and 500-year wind
speeds for the entire US coast to be 157 and 168 knots, respectively, assuming a generalized Pareto
distribution (GPD). Despite the difference in the distributions applied, it is interesting to note that the
estimated 200-year wind speed for the entire coast of the Philippines in this study seems to be
comparable with those estimations in the US. Therefore, engineers or planners in change of disaster
management should keep in mind such uncertainties of predicted wind speed in order not to overlook
the recurrence of an extremely strong typhoon in the not too distant future. In fact, a news story posted
in The Evening World (1912) reported a typhoon on November 25, 1912, where ‘‘fifteen thousand
persons were probably killed and injured in a Fig. 8 Devastation caused by the 1897 typhoon which
struck Leyte Island (Algue 1897) typhoon that swept the Philippine Islands … The typhoon swept the
Visayas Islands and is said to have practically destroyed Tacloban’’. Algue (1897) also presents a number
of photographs that demonstrate the devastations of several coastal towns in Leyte and Samar including
Tacloban (Fig. 8) due to strong winds and possibly a storm surge in October 12, 1897. The course of this
typhoon seems to be quite similar with the one Haiyan took. If these typhoons had a similar intensity
with that of Haiyan, it could be concluded that the return period could actually be just one century or
even less. The relationship between TCs and climate can be subtle. Differences in the spatial and
temporal scales are large (Elsner and Jagger 2013). Furthermore, long-term changes in trends due to
climate change or other unforeseeable influences could alter patterns of frequency, track, and intensity
of future TCs. In terms of intensity, some increase in the mean maximum wind speed of TCs is likely (?2
to ?11 % globally) due to projected twenty-first century global warming, although increases may not
take place in all tropical regions (Knutson et al. 2010). However, it is interesting to note that in terms of
frequency warmer surface sea temperatures in the WNP may even lead to fewer TCs, that is, as warmer
surface sea temperatures do not definitely lead to an increase in TC numbers (Liu et al. 2009). The
analysis by Weinkle et al. (2012) also does not indicate significant longperiod global or individual basin
trends in the frequency or intensity of landfalling TCs. At present, the randomness inherent in natural
weather and typhoon generation conditions can be considered to be more important than climate
change from the point of view of disaster risk management (Nguyen et al. 2014b). In contrast to tropical
cyclone numbers, the theory governing tropical cyclone intensities appears to have a firmer foundation
(Walsh et al. 2009). In this sense, the theory of TC maximum potential intensity (MPI) could be used to
define the maximum intensity that a TC may achieve for a given atmospheric and oceanic thermal
structure. The most widely recognized investigations on MPI are those of Emanuel (1988) and Holland
(1997). Although considerations based on the MPI should be useful when discussing climate change and
TCs around the Philippines, it is outside of the scope of the present study.

Conclusions

Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated Leyte, Samar, and other islands of the Philippines on November 8,
2013, could be the deadliest and most expensive natural disaster in the history of the country. The
present paper investigated the unusual characteristics of Haiyan based on a statistical analysis using
JTWC best track data from 1945 to 2013. Particularly, the focus was placed on the statistics of TC
landfalls in the Philippines. The wind speed at the time of landfall (165.8 knots) was found to be the
strongest among 406 TCs in the last seven decades, 16 % faster than the second strongest typhoon
(142.7 knots during Typhoon Zeb in 1998) in this period. A significant increase in TC landfall frequency
(?0.02 times per year) in recent decades was found in the latitude zone between 10°N and 12°N, which
encompasses Leyte Island. The forward speed of Haiyan at the time of landfall, 41 km/h, was nearly
twice as fast as the average speed of TCs. Haiyan could be considered the fastest typhoon in addition to
the strongest intensity on record. A Weibull distribution was applied to estimate that the reoccurrence
interval of a typhoon with a similar intensity to that of Haiyan is 200 years, which appears to be low
compared to the second strongest typhoon on record (Zeb in 1998), which had a return period of 19
years. The relationship between SST and TC occurrence was also investigated, with the results showing
that the two strongest typhoons in recent times, Haiyan and Zeb, both occurred in seasons with
remarkably warm SSTs. The findings of the present research are expected to be used as important
source of information by disaster risk managers in the design of structures against high winds or storm
surges and in the elaboration of evacuation plans. Such considerations are clearly very important for the
improvement of the resilience of coastal communities against TCs and could be considered as a ‘‘no-
regrets’’ adaptation strategy against climate change, as regardless of whether TCs intensify or not it is
clear that countries like the Philippines are still ill-prepared against present day disasters.
Acknowledgments Funds for the present research were provided by J-RAPID Program of Japan Science
and Technology Agency (JST) and Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant
Number 26702009.

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VOLCANO DEFORMATION AND MODELING ON ACTIVE VOLCANOES IN THE PHILIPPINES FROM
ALOS INSAR TIME SERIES
Anieri M. Morales Rivera (1), Falk Amelung (1) , Rodrigo Eco (2) (1) University of Miami, Department of
Marine Geosciences, 4600 Rickenbacker Cswy, Miami, FL, 33136, USA, Emails:
amorales@rsmas.miami.edu, famelung@rsmas.miami.edu (2) National Institute of Geological Sciences,
University of the Philippines, C. P. Garcia Ave. corner Velasquez St., University of the Philippines,
Diliman, Quezon City, 1101, Philippines, Email: narod.eco@gmail.com

October 2015

ABSTRACT

Bulusan, Kanlaon, and Mayon volcanoes have erupted over the last decade, and Taal caldera showed
signs of volcanic unrest within the same time range. Eruptions at these volcanoes are a threat to human
life and infrastructure, having over 1,000,000 people living within 10 km from just these 4 volcanic
centers. For this reason, volcano monitoring in the Philippines is of extreme importance. We use the
ALOS-1 satellite from the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to make an InSAR time series
analysis over Bulusan, Kanlaon, Mayon, and Taal volcanoes for the 2007-2011 period. Time-dependent
deformation was detected at all of the volcanoes. Deformation related to changes in pressurization of
the volcanic systems was found on Taal caldera and Bulusan volcanoes, with best fitting Mogi sources
located at half-space depths of 3.07 km and 0.5 km respectively.
INTRODUCTION

Among the many benefits of satellite based remote sensing is providing global coverage for various
volcano monitoring techniques. Satellite-based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is an
example of a successful monitoring method that has provided the opportunity to detect and measure
volcanic deformation months to years prior to volcanic eruptions [1]. The deformation signals detected
by InSAR on volcanoes can be related to changes in pressurization of the volcanic systems, and are
occasionally the earliest indicators of volcanic unrest [2], proving its potential for early warning systems.
According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), there are 23 active
volcanoes in the Philippines. PHIVOLCS reported eruptions at Mayon, Bulusan, and Kanlaon volcanoes,
and signs of volcanic unrest at Taal Caldera over the last decade (Tab. 1). Eruptions at these volcanoes
are a threat to human life and infrastructure, having over 1,000,000 people living within 10 km from just
these 4 volcanic centers (Smithsonian Institute, Global volcanism report, available at
http://www.volcano.si.edu). For this reason, monitoring volcanic unrest in this area is of extreme
importance. Table 1. Volcanic eruptions in the Philippines during 2007-2011 (Smithsonian Institute,
Global volcanism report, available at http://www.volcano.si.edu) Volcano Eruption Start Eruption End
Mayon 08/10/2008 08/10/2008 09/15/2009 01/01/2010 Bulusan 10/10/2006 10/04/2007 11/06/2010
05/13/2011 We use the ALOS-1 satellite from the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), which
acquired a global L-band data set of nearly 20 acquisitions during 2007-2011, to make an InSAR time
series analysis over Mayon, Bulusan, Kanlaon, and Taal volcanoes (Fig. 1). The purpose is to determine if
volcanic deformation can be detected with this data, and to present kinematic models that constrain the
magmatic source characteristics for the cases were deformation is related to changes in pressurization
of the system.

2. METHODS

2.1. InSAR data processing The interferograms used in this study were processed using the Gamma SAR
and Interferometric Processing Software [3] to focus the raw SAR images and generate the single looking
complex images that were then used to generate the interferograms with the ROI_PAC SAR Software
[4]. The interferograms were phase unwrapped using the SNAPHU algorithm [5]. Interferograms with
perpendicular baselines of less than 1,500 meters were selected using the Delaunay method. We
successively add all interferograms with perpendicular baselines less than 400 meters, temporal
baselines of less than 2 years, and temporal baselines with more than two years apart but within two
months of each other. Exceptions were made to these selection parameters in cases where the
temporal coherence was generally high (higher than 0.7). Unwrapping error corrections were made to
interferograms using a phase closure technique based on the triangular consistency of interferograms,
developed at the University of Miami (Heresh Fattahi, personal communication). 2.2. InSAR time series
generation The time-series were generated with the PySAR software developed at the University of
Miami (Heresh Fattahi, personal communication) by using the SBAS method [6] and making further
corrections. The timeseries were corrected for DEM errors after the inversion of the interferograms to
remove the dependence between the perpendicular baseline and displacement history [7]. Time series
were also corrected for phase ramp errors by estimating the linear surface that fits the interferometric
phase [8]. Velocity maps were constructed from the corrected time-series to visualize the average
displacement rates over the study area. 2.3. Ionospheric and atmospheric errors Ionospheric noise
corrections were not made but we can identify the dates that are partly affected by ionosphere by
identifying outliers in the time series plot and analysing individual interferograms. Interferograms
affected by ionosphere show distinct striking and decorrelation features, so the evident dates that are
moderately or severely affected by ionospheric noise are eliminated prior to the inversion of
interferograms. The dates were eliminated in order to obtain velocity maps that display a more accurate
average displacement rate. The following methods were used to identify and reduce atmospheric noise
near the volcanoes. Time series plots were made for volcanoes with points of similar elevation to
identify if the line of sight (LOS) displacement patterns and magnitudes are similar, which would suggest
phase delay errors due to the layered atmosphere [9]. If similar patterns exist with different magnitudes,
it could suggest the presence of localized atmospheric delay errors or a real deformation signal. For this
case, we change the reference pixel to a point as close as possible or on the volcano of interest (within
less than 10 km from the deformation signal). This is done under the assumption that no deformation is
present on the reference pixel (chosen after lack of reported volcanic unrest in that region based on
literature review), and that similar atmospheric conditions exist within two points at a close distance
and at similar elevations, which would result in the cancellation of noise caused by atmospheric delay
and a smoother time series. 2.4. Volcano deformation modeling The location, and depth of the best
fitting Mogi sources [10] were estimated using an Annealing inversion technique with the GeodMod
software developed at the University of Miami. These are flat earth models that assume a pressure
source in a homogeneous, isotropic, elastic half-space. The corrected average LOS velocities of a given
time period were used as input data, and the quadtree algorithm was used for subsampling [11].

RESULTS - INTERPRETATION Surface deformation was detected at Mayon, Bulusan, Kanlaon, and Taal
volcanoes. 3.1. Taal The 25 km wide Taal Caldera is located on the island of Luzon in the Philippines. The
caldera is partially filled with water forming the Taal Lake, and within the lake lies the island that makes
the Taal volcano complex which last erupted in 1977. Deformation is observed at various regions within
the area (Fig. 2). 0 5 10 Kilometers ¯ 100 m 300 m 200 m 0 5 10 Kilometers ¯ 100 m 300 m 200 m 0 5 10
Kilometers ¯ 100 m 300 m 200 m 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 −10 −5 0 5 10
cm/yr Taal Lake LOS Laguna de Bay Figure 2. Average LOS velocity for the February 2010 to January 2011
period (top) with reference pixel at 14.446666°N, 120.971389°E; LOS displacement time series (bottom)
for the corresponding points shown on the velocity map. A LOS velocity increase is observed at Taal
volcano after February 2010, at a maximum rate of 14.1 cm/yr between February 2010 and January
2011. The signal extends to the western shore of Taal Lake and is likely caused by inflation due to
pressurization of the volcanic system. LOS velocity decreases are observed at various regions E-NE of
Taal Lake after August 2010. This region makes part of the Macolod Corridor which is a zone
characterized by intense volcanism and extensive faulting, with recent volcanism related to NE-SW and
NW-SE trending fault systems [12]. The signals are likely related to the faulting systems within the region
with the exception of the signal under the Makban Geothermal Plant, which is partly caused by
subsidence due to groundwater extraction. The order of occurrence of the events is remarkable because
it could possibly serve as evidence of the magma-tectonic interactions within the region. The results
could suggest that pressurization of the magmatic system led to inflation of the volcano, resulting in
stress transfers within the region and faulting while the volcano continued to inflate. But further data
and modeling is necessary to have an understanding of the interactions occurring within the region,
which is out of the scope of this study. 3.2. Mayon Mayon volcano erupted lava flows during 2006 that
were emplaced in the SE flank of the volcano (Smithsonian Institute, Global volcanism report, available
at http://www.volcano.si.edu). A LOS velocity decrease is observed at Mayon volcano over these
deposits, with a maximum rate of 3.5 cm/yr, likely associated with cooling and compaction (Fig. 3).
Figure 3. Average LOS velocity for 2007-2011 (top) with reference pixel at 13.406210°N, 123.605000°E;
LOS displacement time series (bottom), for the corresponding points shown on the velocity map, with
the best fitting linear regression for the deforming point. 3.3. Bulusan LOS velocity decrease is observed
on the Western Flank of Bulusan volcano (Fig. 4), at a maximum rate of 3.5 cm/yr. The signal coincides
with the end of the 2007 eruption phase, indicating possible depressurization of the volcanic system. 0
1.5 3 Kilometers ¯ 500 m 1000 m 1500 m 2000 m 0 1.5 3 Kilometers ¯ 500 m 1000 m 1500 m 2000 m 0
105 Kilometers ¯ 100 m 300 m 200 m 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 −3 −2 −1 0 1
2 3 cm/yr LOS 0 1 2 Kilometers ¯ 1500 m 1000 m 500 m 0 1 2 Kilometers ¯ 1500 m 1000 m 500 m 0 105
Kilometers ¯ 100 m 300 m 200 m cm/yr LOS 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 −3 −2
−1 0 1 2 3 Figure 4. Average LOS velocity for 2007-2011 (top) with reference point shown in black
square; LOS displacement time series (bottom), for the corresponding points shown on the velocity
map, with the best fitting linear regression for the deforming point. 3.4. Kanlaon A LOS velocity increase
is observed on the Western flank of Kanlaon volcano near the summit (Fig. 5), with a maximum rate of
1.8 cm/yr. The spatial extent of the deforming area is unknown due to the loss of coherence towards the
W-SW flank of the volcano. The signal appears to be morphostructurally confined within a valley, and
several scarp features can be observed with Google Earth imagery, suggesting that mass movements are
the likely cause of the signal. Figure 5. Average LOS velocity for 2007-2011 (top) with reference point
shown in black square, and LOS displacement time series (bottom) for the corresponding points shown
on the velocity map. 3.5. Volcano deformation modeling Source models were estimated for Taal and
Bulusan volcanoes because the signals detected at these volcanoes are likely related to changes in
pressurization of the volcanic systems. The best fitting mogi source model at Taal volcano is centered at
14.0115°N, 121.0024°E (in the NE quadrant of the crater), at a half space depth of 3.07 km with an rms
of 17.40 mm (Fig. 6). The best fitting mogi source model at Bulusan volcano is centered at 12.7652°N,
124.0495°E (in the SW flank of the volcano), at a half space depth of 0.50 km with an rms of 5.35 mm
(Fig. 7). Although the point source models are not taking into account the variations in topography,
results at Taal would not differ too much considering that it is relatively flat, with the highest elevation
at 311m. However, results at Bulusan volcano would most likely vary considering that the summit
elevation is at 1565 m. To test this, the source depths were estimated with respect to the summit by
assuming that the half space depth is referenced to the average elevation of the subset area. This would
give depth estimates with respect to the summit of 3.24 km and 1.47 km for Taal and Bulusan
respectively. Figure 6. Taal volcano source modeling. Observed data (top left), model prediction (top
right), and residual (bottom left), with the location of the Mogi point source displayed as the cross. The
black line in all 3 figures represents the extent of the profile (bottom right). The blue profile represents
the observed data, and the green profile represents the predicted model. 0 1 2 Kilometers ¯ 1500 m
2000 m 1000 m 0 1 2 Kilometers ¯ 1500 m 2000 m 1000 m 0 5 10 Kilometers ¯ 100 m 300 m 200 m cm/yr
LOS 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 AlosA Data AlosA Model
AlosA Residual −0.1 −0.05 0 0.05 0.1 LOS displacement [m] AlosA Data AlosA Model AlosA Residual −0.1
−0.05 0 0.05 0.1 LOS displacement [m] AlosA Data AlosA Model AlosA Residual −0.1 −0.05 0 0.05 0.1 LOS
displacement [m] 0 5 10 15 20 −0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 motion [m] distance[km] TOTAL RMS:
17.40 mm (AlosA 2755.67mm, ) NUMBER OF DATA POINTS AlosA 25091 , RMS FOR UNIT SIGMAS AlosA
17.40mm, WEIGHTS: AlosA 100.00% , GenericObjectiveFunction, mogi: 1, algorithm: Anneal,
FollowGradient: 1 xE xN Dep Stren 13.00 9.00 3.00 0.00 17.00 14.00 3.50 999.00 15.38 11.25 3.07 5.23
Number of model parameters: 0 linear, 0 fixed, 4 free, 0 phaseramp Data Model Distance (km)
Displacement (m) 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 −10 −5 0 5 10 Displacement (cm) Figure 7.
Bulusan volcano source modeling. Observed data (top left), model prediction (top right), and residual
(bottom left), with the location of the Mogi point source displayed as the cross. The black line in all 3
figures represents the extent of the profile (bottom right). The blue profile represents the observed
data, and the green profile represents the predicted model. 4. DISCUSSION The results show that
deformation was detected at all four targeted volcanoes, relating to changes in pressurization of the
volcanic systems only for Taal and Bulusan volcanoes. We further discuss our findings for these two
volcanoes. Two previous studies used GPS data to model the source of inflation at Taal volcano [13; 14].
Reference [13] estimated a source depth of 5.2 km centered at 14.021°N, 120.999°E for the 2000
inflationary period, with a maximum inflation rate of 22 cm/yr. Reference [14] estimated a source depth
of 5.1 km centered at 14.013°N, 121.003°E for the 2005 inflationary period, with a maximum inflation
rate of 18 cm/yr. Our study used InSAR LOS data to model the inflation source, and our results best
agree with the location of the source center estimated by [14], in the NE quadrant of the crater.
However, our results place the source center at a shallower depth. This difference can arise due to
several factors that need to be addressed in the future. Our models are built using LOS displacement
because we only had access to ascending data at the time of the study. Future work should combine
ascending with descending data to better constrain the amount of displacement attributed to vertical
and horizontal movements. However, the possibility of migration of magma to shallower depths cannot
be discarded. Reference [15] suggests intrusion of fresh magma rising to shallower depths during the
2010 volcanic unrest period, as noted by changes in gas emission ratios of CO2/SO2, CO2/H2O and
SO2/H2S from fumaroles in the Taal Main Crater Lake. A shallow degassing magma connected to a
deeper magma chamber beneath the eastern flank of Taal Volcano could also be related to the surface
deformation in the eastern section of the volcano [16]. Steaming features were reported by PHIVOLCS
on the SW flank after an eruption on October 2007, and edifice deflation during 2009 (Smithsonian
Institute, Global volcanism report, available at http://www.volcano.si.edu), but magmatic source
characteristics had yet to be constrained. We do not observe edifice deflation in Bulusan, but deflation
appears to be localized on the W-SW flank of the volcano which we interpreted to be caused by
depressurization of a shallow magmatic source (Fig. 7). The July 2007 eruption at Bulusan volcano
produced a 5-km high eruption column and dispersed fallout tephra covering up to 220 km2 west of the
volcano. A lack of juveniles from the tephra based on petrological and Xray fluorescence analysis
suggests that the eruption may have been induced by fragmentation of vent-rocks within the volcano
during the phreatic eruption. This implies that there was no fresh magma involved during the eruption
[17].

CONCLUSIONS

Following the InSAR time series analysis, we conclude that all of the targeted volcanoes exhibited
deformation during the 2007-2011 period. Deformation at Taal and Bulusan volcanoes likely resulted
from changes in pressurization of shallow magmatic sources, although other processes could also
account for the observed deformation. Source models provided insights into the magma chamber
depths and locations. Deformation at Mayon resulted from cooling and compaction of lava flows, while
deformation at Kanlaon was attributed to local mass movements.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The ALOS PALSAR data are copyright of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI). These data were made available through the
Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF).
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on small baseline differential SAR interferograms, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing,
40(11), 2375- 2383. 7. Fattahi, H., & Amelung, F. (2013), DEM Error Correction in InSAR Time Series,
Geoscience and Remote Sensing, IEEE Transactions on, 51(7), 4249-4259. 8. Massonnet, D., & Feigl, K.L.
(1998), Radar interferometry and its application to changes in the Earth's surface, Reviews of
Geophysics, 36(4), 441- 500. 9. Chaussard, E., Amelung, F., & Aoki, Y. (2013), Characterization of open
and closed volcanic systems in Indonesia and Mexico using InSAR time series, Journal of Geophysical
Research: Solid Earth, 118(8), 3957-3969. 10. Mogi, K. (1958), Relations between eruptions of various

LANDSLIDES IN THE PHILIPPINES: ASSESSING THE ROLE OF BIOENGINEERING AS AN EFFECTIVE

ALTERNATIVE MITIGATION TECHNIQUE
Conference Paper · September 2015

ABSTRACT:

In developing countries such as the Philippines, any means of preventing slope failures and landslides is
crucial. Tight budgets prohibit the building of more permanent structures and the securing of areas that
are becoming ever more populated. The relentless search for new land has pushed local residents to live
in places where slopes are unstable and can escalate into full-blown landslides during the typhoon
season or after an earthquake. This paper focuses on the Philippines’ particular geology and analyses
the causes of the major landslide events that have hit the country, resulting in incalculable tragedies in
terms of human lives lost and properties damaged. As bioengineering has been used in several other
Southeast Asian countries, this paper will consider the success of this method and its feasibility in the
Philippines, a country prone to a variety of serious natural disasters.

Keywords: Landslides, Philippines, Bioengineering, Slope Stabilization

INTRODUCTION

The Philippine archipelago consists of approximately 7,100 islands and occupies an area that stretches
1,850km from about the fifth to the twentieth parallel north (Figure 1). Despite a total land area of
slightly more than 300,000km2, only about 1,000 of its islands are populated (Gultiano S. et al. 2003).
The islands are part of a western Pacific arc system where several active volcanoes, such as the Pinatubo
and the Mayon, are present, along three major tectonic plates: the Philippines Sea Plate, the Eurasian
Plate and the Philippine Fault. The tropical marine climate is dominated by rainy and dry seasons.
Rainfall can be highly variable in distribution, intensity and longevity. The combination of warm
temperatures and high rainfall results in widespread deep tropical weathering and the extensive
development of residual soil throughout the Philippines. As the archipelago sits astride the typhoon belt,
it can experience damaging storms any month of the year. As a norm, the most severe storms occur
between the months of July and October. The particular geographic and geologic setting of the
archipelago makes it naturally prone to landslides, which can be triggered by a single volcanic,
earthquake and hydro meteorological event or by any combination of them another important
consideration is the anthropogenic factor, which significantly changes the landscape, increasing
landslide hazards. With a rapidly growing population and the inevitable demand for new lands to live on,
locals are exposed to high-risk landslide events.

CAUSES OF LANDSLIDES

Landslides are commonly defined as down slope movements of soil, sediment and rock. They take many
different forms and are common everywhere around the world but there are certain areas in which
these kinds of events occur more frequently.

Landslides usually start on steep hillsides as shallow earth falls that liquefy and typically accelerate to
speeds of around 10 miles per hour, but can exceed 35 miles per hour (Schuster R.L. et al 2001). The
slide becomes larger and heavier as it gathers more mass on its way down slope. Besides carrying soil,
rock and water, the landslide can also carry boulders, trees, cars and even buildings. In 1950 Terzaghi
classified the causes of landslides into two main groups: internal causes and external causes. External
mechanisms are those outside the mass involved that are responsible for overcoming its internal shear
strength, thereby causing it to fail. Gravity undeniably always comes into play but other events can
trigger landslides as well. Rainfall is one of the main elements as it builds up the water pressure inside
the slope. The removal of vegetation can also alter existing hydrogeological and hydrological conditions,
leading to run-off and consequently, increasing erosion and the probability of slides and debris flows
occurring (Bell F.G. 1999). Other external factors include earthquakes as they enlarge the external
stresses on slope material and reduce pore space, which in turn, increases the pore pressure within the
soil/rock mass. Water is another major cause of mass movements. As it penetrates the soil, it makes the
surface heavier and with the stronger gravitational pull, the chances of landslides magnify. It also
reduces friction and consequently, the shear strength of slopes (Horelli J.A. 2005). Rainfall-triggered
landslides are part of the natural process of hill slope erosion and can result in the catastrophic loss of
life and expensive property damage in densely populated areas. Generally speaking, shallow slope
movements are induced by intense rainfall while deep-seated ones require large volumes of water
(Chigira M. 2011). Terzaghi, however, dismisses the idea of slides taking place solely on the basis of
rainfall and sudden excess water. He mentions a rather important factor common in humid climates –
the naturally occurring moisture in the ground that can act as a lubricant for movement. Topographic
factors such as slope inclination are also relevant. A study has been conducted on the relationship
between the slope and landslide occurrences.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author wishes to thank Miss Judy Wu for her contribution in editing this paper.
REFERENCES

Bell F.G. (1999) Geological Hazards. Their assessment, avoidance and mitigation. E & FN Spon, London
Campbell S.D.G., Shaw R., Sewell R.J., Wong J.C.F. (2006) Guideline for Soil Bioengineering Application
on Natural Terrain Landslide Scars, GEO Report No.227, Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil
Engineering and Development Department, The Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region; Chigira M. (2011) Geological and Geomorphological Characteristics of Deep-Seated Catastrophic
Landslides Induced by Rain and Earthquakes in Journal of Chinese Soil and Water Conservation, 42 (4),
pp.265-278; Evans S.G., Guthrie R.H., Roberts N.J., Bishop N.F. 2007 – The disastrous 17 February 2006
rockslide-debris avalanche on Leyte Island, Philippines: a catastrophic landslide in tropical mountain
terrain in Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences, vol.7, pp.89-101; GEO (2011) Technical Guidelines
on Landscape Treatment for Slopes. GEO publication No.1/2011, Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil
Engineering and Development Department, The Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region; Gultiano S., Balbarino E., Saz E., Urich P. (coord.) (2003) Geography of the Philippines,
Population Dynamics, Land Availability and Adapting Land Tenure Systems: Philippines, a case Study,
office of Population Studies (University of San Carlos), Farm and Agriculture Resource Management
Institute and Center for Social Research (Leyte State University), CICRED, FAO, pp. 29-57
http://www.cicred.org/Eng/Publications/Books/M onographiePhilippines/08MonoPhilippinesChap3.
pdf; Hengchaovanich D., Nilaweera N. (1996) An assessment of strength properties of vetiver grass roots
in relation to slope stabilization. Proceedings of the First International Conference on Vetiver. Office of
the Royal Development Project Board, Bangkok, pp.153-158; Horelli J.A. (2005) Landslides in Hong Kong.
University of Helsinki. Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry. Department of Economics and Managements,

Temporal analysis and geo-mapping of fire incidents in the City of Manila

Francis F. Balahadia National Univerisity College of Computer Studies Sampaloc, Manila
ffbalahadia@national-u.edu.ph

Conference Paper · December 2015 DOI: 10.1109/HNICEM.2015.7393211

Abstract— Fire incidents are costly occurrences that may be preventable. This study aims to analyze fire
data in the City of Manila from 2011 to 2014 based on the various causes of fires. Temporal analytical
techniques complemented by geo-mapping are used to determine fire patterns based on time, day,
month and year. A total of 2,316 fire incidents were included in the study and fires due to faulty
electrical connections occuring from 6PM to 9PM emerged as the time with the most number of fire
incidents. The daily pattern does not show much variation although the montly pattern shows that the
summer months have the more number of fire occurrences with faulty electrical connections as the
main cause. The yearly pattern also do not offer much variation though the same cause of fire is noted
to have the highest occurrence. Patterns identified may be useful inputs in formulating proactive fire
preventive measures and in allocating fire resources. Future research directions in spatial and
spatiotemporal analyses have beenidentified.

Index Terms—fire incidents, fire mapping, frequency and distribution, local government unit, bureau of
fire, temporal analysis

INTRODUCTION
Fire incidents constitute a major threat to the life and property each year. In the Philippines, a 2012
study by the Department of Health – Health Emergency Management Staff (DOH-HEMS) showed that
fires accounted for 39% of all events reported through the Health Emergency Alert Reporting System
from 2005 to 2009 [1]. The 2010 -2013 figures also show a sizeable number of fire incidents with 40,696
reported cases and the National Capital Region (NCR) accounts for 37% of the incidents recorded [2].
The Philippine government recognizes the need to reduce these incidents thus as early as 1966, March
has already been declared the National Fire Prevention Month. During this month, education and
awareness campaigns are conducted to lessen the incidence of fire in the country. In order to develop
better strategies to curb these incidents, an analysis of fire occurrences over time is a necessary. There
are several techniques that can be used to study fire patterns, namely temporal and spatial analyses.
The former can reveal events and patterns occurring in high frequencies at certain periods in time [3]
while the latter can show which areas are more likely to be struck by fire more than the others [4]. In
this study, we focus on temporal patterns of fire 978-1-5090-0360-0/15/$31.00 ©2015 IEEE incidents
classified by causes. Knowing when the frequency of fire is highest and what causes these fires can help
policy makers, government units, fire officers and concerned entities prepare and implement
appropriate programs to reduce, if not eliminate, fire incidents and mitigate the damage that it causes.
As a microcosm of the country, we selected the City of Manila as the focus of this study. Manila is the
capital of the Philippines and the second largest city in NCR with a population of 1.65 million based on
the 2010 census [5]. It is divided into 16 administrative districts namely: Binondo, Ermita, Intramuros,
Malate, Paco, Pandacan, Port Area, Quiapo, Sampaloc, San Andres, San Miguel, San Nicolas, Sta. Ana,
Sta. Cruz, Sta. Mesa and Tondo. The records of fire incidents were provided by the Bureau of Fire
Protection (BFP) Fire District I, which is responsible for the administration and management of fire and
emergency services in Manila. Based on records, a total of 2,316 fire incidents were reported from 2011
to 2014. Relevant data provided by the BFP included the date and time, location, cause of fire, involved
establishment, fatality (if any), level of alarm, status of case and amount of damage. Of these variables,
this study takes into account the date and time, location and causes of fire for analyses. The BFP has
listed several causes of fire such as defective electrical wiring/association, unattended open fire, ignore
cooking/stove, LPG, cigarette butt, light, electrical gadgets and apparatuses, among others. In this study,
we have regrouped the different causes into 10 categories, namely: faulty electrical connection,
LPG/cooking related, cigarette butt, unattended open flame, neglected/overheated appliances/devices,
under investigation, intentional, mechanical failure, other causes and not indicated. As an additional
tool in the analysis, we have geocoded the fire incidents for mapping purposes. This provides us with a
graphic presentation of the dispersion of fire incidents in the city. With Geographic Information System
(GIS) software tools becoming accessible, mapping presents a good opportunity for a better
understanding of the temporal patterns of fire incidents. The rest of the paper is organized as follows:
Section 2 Related Studies; Section 3 discusses the methodology of the 8th IEEE International Conference
Humanoid, Nanotechnology, Information Technology Communication and Control, Environment and
Management (HNICEM) The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. (IEEE) – Philippine
Section 9-12 December 2015 Water Front Hotel, Cebu, Philippines study; Results and Discussion are
presented in Section 4 and Section 5 concludes the paper with outline of future work. II. RELATED
STUDIES Fires are preventable occurrences that can cost millions of pesos on damages to property and
loss of lives. Although studies abound on the analysis of fire incidents in forest regions, the temporal and
spatial patterns of fire incidences in urban areas have yet to be fully examined [6]. In the Philippines, a
study conducted by [7] noted that fire and firerelated casualties remains to be relatively unstudied in
the Philippines. As fires remain to be a source of threat to life and property, the temporal analytical
techniques allow for the examination of the temporal dynamics of fire incidents with variables such as
the reported causes of fire. Temporal analysis can be useful in providing insights into fire management
issues because it can establish base lines of activity and it can also show new trends by presenting data
by hour, day, month and year [3]. In the study by [3] the temporal analysis of fire patterns showed
significant differences in the hourly, daily and monthly patterns of fire incidents while the annual trend
reflect a relatively steady pattern. To enhance the identification of fire patterns based on time, GIS
techniques are tools that can be used to add value. Mapping of fire occurrences can be used to pinpoint
areas that are at risk and appropriate measures can be taken to develop effective fire prevention
programs, improve fire detection and the allocation of firefighting resources [4]. Additionally, [3] also
recognizes the importance of GIS techniques especially in analyzing and visualizing current and past data
to find potential patterns that can be beneficial in formulating proactive fire prevention activities.
Temporal and GIS techniques are useful in discovering patterns of fire activities in a locality. Patterns
discovered can help the BFP and local government units develop meaningful policies on fire prevention
and provide the appropriate resources. facilitate processing, unique codes were assigned to the
different occurrences per variable. Additional columns for latitude and longitude for the fire location
were included in the masterlist. Each fire record was manually geocoded based on the provided date on
fire location. Once completed, the raw data were examined for consistency before being processed
using SPSS. Through this tool, frequency distributions for all variables were generated. Cross tabulations
were also done to determine how variables were related with one another. Correlations between
population and fire incidents per district as well as between monthly temperature averages and fire
incidents per month were also computed to determine how these variables are related. The study also
made use of the location coordinates to map the location of fire incidents using Power Map. Power Map
is a new Microsoft Excel feature that allows for geographic and temporal data analyses using Bing map
navigation [8].With this tool, the distribution of fire incidents based on time variables in Manila were
visually presented through heat maps thus it was easy to detect districts having more concentration of
fire incidents. Temporal analysis on the causes of fire was done to identify useful fire patterns. Fire
incidents based on causes of fire were analyzed on an hourly, daily, monthly and yearly bases. Radar
graphs and line charts were used to illustrate fire incidents since they depict continuity. Power Map was
also used to present selected results visually. IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS General Characteristics of
Fire Occurrences III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES Fig. 1 Research Framework The research framework
on how we conducted the study is shown in Fig. 1. All fires from 2011 to 2014 that were responded to
by BFP Fire District I were included in this study. A total of 2,316 fire incidents in various districts due to
various causes were reported. In addition to the fire records, interviews were also conducted with the
fire officers of the BFP Fire District I. The fire records were reviewed to identify variables that were
relevant to the study and to determine the extent of documentation of fire events. The variables
identified for inclusion were date, time, location, cause and alarm level. Since data entries were not
consistently encoded, a second review was conducted and a masterlist was prepared. To Fig. 2 Fire
Distribution per District According to the results obtained in the analysis of cumulative fire incidences
from 2011 to 2014, a total of 2,316 incidents were reported in the 16 districts of the City of Manila. Fig.
2 shows the distribution of fire events in the different districts, with the highest number reported in
Tondo with 539 incidents, closely followed by Sampaloc with 487. Fig. 3 shows the concentration of fire
incidents with areas in red depicting higher number of occurrences. The high incidence of fire events in
Tondo and Sampaloc may be attributed to its total population. Based on the 2010 Census of Population
and Housing by the National Statistics Office [9], Tondo is the most populated district with 628,106
followed by Sampaloc with 341,461. The index of correlation between the number of fire occurrences
and population is 0.84, indicating a strong positive correlation. This may suggest that the higher the
population of a district is, the more fire events are likely to occur. 8th IEEE International Conference
Humanoid, Nanotechnology, Information Technology Communication and Control, Environment and
Management (HNICEM) The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. (IEEE) – Philippine
Section 9-12 December 2015 Water Front Hotel, Cebu, Philippines Fig. 5 Fires due to Faulty Electrical Fig.
3 Mapping of Fire Distribution per District As shown in Fig. 4, the highest cause of fire occurrences at
58% is due to faulty electrical connection. Fig. 5 shows the distribution of fires due to faulty electrical
connection in Manila. Another electrical related cause, i.e., neglected or overheated appliances or
devices, account for 5%. These two causes constitute 63% of the total fire events in the city. Factors that
contribute to the high incidence of electricity related causes need to be looked into such that
appropriate measures may be taken to reduce these numbers. Some of these may include the
concentration of informal settlements in the city and the electrical wiring in some residential and
commercial buildings considering that Manila is the oldest city in the country. Fig. 4 Distribution of Fire
Causes Fig. 5 Fires due to Faulty Electrical Temporal Analysis Radar graphs presented in Fig. 7 show the
hourly, daily and monthly patterns of fires in Manila. Fire incidents start to rise by 9AM and peaking at
7PM before slowly going down until it reaches its lowest number by 4AM. As far as the frequency of
fires on a daily basis, shows that the number of daily occurrences does not have that significant
variance. The lowest incident is reflected on Sundays. An increasing number of fire events recorded as
the summer months approach. Peak Time at 7:00PM Least Fires on Peak Month in May Fig. 6 Mapping
of Fire Incidents Fig. 7 Hourly, Daily and Monthly Patterns of Fire The average temperature during the
months of March to May range from a low of 24 degrees Celsius to a high of 34 degrees Celsius [10]. The
graph shows that these periods exhibit the highest incidence of fire events with the month of May
reflecting the highest number at 243. The index of correlation between average monthly temperature
and the number of fire occurrences is 0.72 indicating a strong positive correlation between the two
variables. These results indicate that as temperature rises, the number of fire occurrences will also rise.
Fig. 6 shows the mapping of fires by time and month at their peak frequencies while the day with the
least frequency isshown. One possible reason why fire occurrences increase as evening approaches may
be due to the increase in activity of people due to work or leisure. As the day approaches midnight, the
number gradually lessens since people already turn in for sleep. The lower incidence on Sundays may be
8th IEEE International Conference Humanoid, Nanotechnology, Information Technology Communication
and Control, Environment and Management (HNICEM) The Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers Inc. (IEEE) – Philippine Section 9-12 December 2015 Water Front Hotel, Cebu, Philippines
Headings, or heads, are organizational devicesthat guide attributed to the Filipino tradition of having
Sunday as family day spent in places outside of one’s residence. The higher incidence of fire occurrences
during the summer months may be attributed to the increased use of electrical appliances and other
devices which may have resulted to overheating and overloading of electrical connections. Fig. 8 Hourly
Pattern of Fire Incidents by Causes The hourly patterns of fire occurrences by causes are shown in Fig. 8.
Fires due to faulty electrical connections are highest from 6PM to 9PM (Fig. 9) when people are already
at home putting more load in the household’s electrical consumption. LPG related causes, which include
neglected cooking stoves, occur the highest at 12PM and 6PM (Fig. 10) which may be attributed to
cooking activities in residential activities. Fires due to cigarette butts are highest at 1PM (Fig. 11) which
may be related to the smoking habits of people, i.e., smoking after a meal and during breaks, among
others. Fires due to neglected open flames, which may have come from unattended lighters,
matchsticks, candles and gas lamp, is highest at 7PM while overheated appliances and devices also
reflect a similar pattern, occurring high at nightFires that were intentional on the other hand mostly
took place before and after midnight when darkness would serve as a good cover for the illegal activity.
Fires due to mechanical failures and other causes were less frequent and occurred mostly at night.
There were some fires throughout the day whose causes remain under investigation while some did not
have any cause reflected. Based on Fig. 12 which shows the fire incident pattern based on the day of the
week, fire patterns are relatively uniform during the week. Lower fire incidents due to faulty electrical
connection may occur on Sundays (Fig. 13) which may be attributed to people being out for family-
related activities such as spending the day in malls and in other places of recreation. Fig. 12 Daily Pattern
of Fire Incidents by Causes Fig. 13 Sunday Fires due to Faulty Electrical Connection Fig. 14 Monthly
Pattern of Fire Incidents by Causes Fire patterns on the month of the years shown in Fig. 14 Fires due to
faulty electrical connections appear to be fairly uniform across all months although numbers are lower
in December and January, which are the colder months in Manila and electrical circuit overloading may
have been reduced. The month of May exhibited the highest incidence due to faulty electrical
connections (Fig. 15), which may be due to Fig. 9 Fires due to Faulty Electrical Connections from 6PM to
9PM Fig. 10 LPG/Cooking Related Fires at 12PM and 6PM Fig. 11 Fires Due to Cigarette Butts at 1PM 8th
IEEE International Conference Humanoid, Nanotechnology, Information Technology Communication and
Control, Environment and Management (HNICEM) The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Inc. (IEEE) – Philippine Section 9-12 December 2015 Water Front Hotel, Cebu, Philippines increased
electricity usage resulting to overloaded electrical circuits. There is also not much variation in the fire
incidents that are LPG related or due to unattended cooking/gas stoves as well as fires due to
overheated appliances and other electrical devices. Fires due to cigarette butts as well as fires due to
open flames tend to be higher in the first two months of the year. These may be due to the colder
weather being experienced in the area. The other causes are relatively similar across all months and not
much variation among the numbers is noted. The yearly fire patterns based on causes do not reflect
much fluctuation (Fig. 16). Fire incident causes are relatively steady across the four years covered by
thisstudy. Fig. 15 May Fires Due to Faulty Electrical Fig. 16 Yearly Pattern of Fire Incidents by Causes Our
findings suggest that the occurrence of fire incidents vary up to a certain degree in time and the degree
of variation is influenced by the cause of fire. Hourly patterns have shown a predisposition for certain
causes to occur more frequently at certain periods while the summer months still persist as the most
fire-prone months. Faulty electrical connections as the major cause of fire also merit a closer look such
that appropriate mitigation and preventive measures can be taken by the local government unit and the
BFP. The temporal analysis of fire incidents provided useful trends that can help the BFP allocate its
firefighting resources in places that exhibit a higher rate of occurrences at certain times. V. CONCLUSION
AND FUTURE WORKS Temporal analysis coupled with geo-mapping have provided valuable insights on
fire patterns that can help policy makers design proactive fire prevention activities such as awareness
campaign and other risk-reduction measures. The study has shown that fire incidents follow temporal
patterns although the trends appear to be influenced by certain factors such as the cause of fire,
temperature and population, among others. The results of this study may be used by the City of Manila
and the BFP Fire District I as valuable inputs for fire prevention planning and fire response management.
While the present findings offer valuable insights into the temporal patterns of fire incidents, there is
still much to be discovered when temporal analysis is coupled with spatial analysis that can show
variation of fire incidents based on location. Spatiotemporal analysis can also be done to show the
interaction between space and time which can be complemented by GIS techniques for better
visualization of fire patterns. Furthermore, other causal factors such as the socioeconomic factors may
be considered for investigation as determinants of firepatterns.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

We would like to thank the Bureau of Fire Protection Fire District I for providing all the necessary
information needed in the study; Nathaniel A. Oco and Ma. Rosario Rodavia, for their guidance and
ideas.

REFERENCES

Department of Health - Health Emergency Management Staff (2012). Epidemiological Assessment of

Emergecies and Disasters in the Philippines. [2] Severa B. de Costo, M. V. (2014, May 09). Should the Fire
Prevention Month be Moved to April? Retrieved from Philippine Statistics Authority - National Statistical
Coordination Board: http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sexystats/2014/SS20140509_fire. asp [3] Asgary, A.,
Ghaffari, A., & Levy, J. (2010). Spatial and temporal analyses of structural fire incidents and their causes:
A case of Toronto, Canada. Fire Safety Journal, 45, 44-57. [4] Tanfara, A. (2011, March). Spatial analysis
and investigation of fire events occurrences in the Valencian Community, Spain. [5] National Statistics
Office (2014). The Philippines in Figure 2014. [6] Corcoran, J., Higgs, G., Brunsdon, C., Ware, A., &
Norman, P. (2007). The use of spatial analytical techniques to explore patterns of fire incidence: A South
Wales case study. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 31(6), 623-647. [7] Velasco, G. N.
(2013). Epidemiological Assessment of Fires in the Philippines 2010-2012. [8] Power Map for Excel.
(n.d.). Retrieved from Microsoft Power BI: https://www.microsoft.com/enus/powerBI/power-map.aspx
[9] 2010 Census of Population and Housing Highlights. (2012, April 4). Retrieved from National Statistics
The Epidemiology of Disasters: Health Effects of Flood Disasters in the Philippines Conference
Paper ·
Noel R. Juban, MD, MSc1 ; Amiel Nazer C. Bermudez, MD2 ; Raymond Francis R. Sarmiento, MD2 ; Jose
Antonio E. Dumagay, MD3 1Professor and Chair, Department of Clinical Epidemiology College of
Medicine – University of the Philippines Manila 2Research Associate, Health Team, Lake HEAD Project
3Research Associate, Department of Clinical Epidemiology College of Medicine – University of the
Philippines Manila
December 2015
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1126.2889

Introduction

Flooding is considered one of the most widespread of climatic hazards that poses multiple risks to
human health. Flooding or flood events with severe consequences may be termed a flood disaster and
in recent years, the human impact of flood disasters has been concentrated disproportionately in
developing countries. It has been predicted that over the next 100 years, certain areas, such as in low-
lying coastal sites and in zones that currently experience high rainfall, will experience more intense flood
disasters. However, currently, the prediction of precise location for increased flood risks resulting from
climatic changes is not feasible, mainly because flood risks have multiple social, technical and
environmental drivers.

Epidemiology of Disasters in the Philippines the Philippines hosts an average of 20 typhoons annually, of
which around five of these are strong enough to cause significant destruction. The Philippines ranks 3rd
among countries worldwide, trailing behind China and India, in terms of the number of reported natural
events. Because of these natural events, in the Annual Disaster Statistical Review in 2010 by the Center
for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), the Philippines reported a total of 3.9 million
victims of natural disasters. In the Philippines, health events resulting from natural disasters are
monitored and reported by the Health Emergency Management Staff (HEMS) of the Department of
Health. A review of the HEARS database indicated that more than 20% of all natural events and over 4%
of all events are due to flooding. Most floods occur as a secondary event of another hazard, which is
usually related to weather disturbances that bring continuous heavy rains. Just like typhoons that
precede them, floods reach their peaks from May to November, with the months in between showing a
steady occurrence of floods. The number of floods then starts to decline during the start of the year and
reach a nadir in March to April. Of the 104 flood events monitored and reported by HEMS, 11 (10.6%)
are categorized as major flood events. By definition, an event is said to be major if it meets any two of
the following criteria:

1. It has casualties greater than 10

2. Critical health infrastructures, such as hospital and centers for health development, are damaged

3. The local government requests for assistance from the national government

4. The national government offers assistance even without being prompted by the local government

5. A state of calamity/disaster is declared

Factors Affecting the Health Outcomes of Floods

Type of Flood

In a systematic review by Du et. al. (2009) on the health consequences of flooding, the type of flood has
been found out to be directly relevant to health consequences. Flash floods are associated with
increased occurrence of drowning, mainly from the entrapment of people. Moreover, aside from
damages to infrastructure, debris carried along fast currents of water result in both fata and non-fatal
injuries. In contrast, gradual inundation is more predictable and hence, less likely to cause drowning and
injury.

Geography

The geography of an area has a significant impact on the nature of the flood and the health
consequences. Coastal areas are susceptible to floods resulting from tidal waves and storm surges while
low-lying areas are more prone to riverine floods and gradual inundation. In valley areas, flash floods are
commonly accompanied by heavy debris, which may affect the health impact of the event. The greatest
risk of flooding is seen in low-lying areas and in areas near water and/or located downstream from a
dam while significant increases in mortality from flood events are seen in mountainous areas and in
narrow river valley areas.
Demography

Several characteristics of population groups affect the type and magnitude of health outcomes from
flooding. Some of these characteristics include: (1) size and density of the population; (2) level of
awareness and education and; (3) capacity to escape. Moreover, certain segments in the population are
at increased risk of health events from flooding and typically include: (1) older people; (2) children; (3)
persons with disabilities/illness; (4) persons confined in prisons

Other Factors

Other factors that affect the health outcomes of flooding include the capacity of the community to
respond to disasters and their attitude on disaster management i.e. construction standards and
appropriate design of community infrastructure) as well as the presence of a functional and sustainable
disaster management system.

Health Impacts of Flooding

Classification

The health consequences of flooding may be classified as direct or indirect. Direct consequences are
those resulting from direct exposure to water and the flooded environment as in the case of drowning
and injuries. On the other hand, indirect consequences are those associated with risks from the damage
done by the water (flood) to the natural and built environment as in the case of infectious diseases and
malnutrition. Health consequences can also be classified based on the time of occurrence. Immediate
health consequences typically arise during the period when the flood is present while medium-term and
long-term health consequences manifest on the immediate recovery phase (days to weeks) and
reconstruction phase (months to years) respectively.

Immediate Health Effects

Deaths.

The number of deaths from drowning is dependent on the speed of onset of flooding, with flash floods
being more hazardous than slow-onset floods (Malilay, 1997), as well as the depth and extent of the
flood. Studies have also pointed to several possible factors that are associated with an increased risk of
drowning such as being trapped in a vehicle (French et. al., 1983), male sex (Jonkman et. al., 2005) and
old age as seen in elderly persons who drown in their own homes. Moreover, a delayed increase in
deaths (50% increase in all-cause mortality of the flooded population), which may be associated with a
preceding flooding event, was reported by Bennet et. al., (1970) on the 1969 flood in Bristol, United
Kingdom, with the deaths being more pronounced among this 45 – 64 years old.

Injuries.

Injuries commonly occur when individuals attempt to escape from danger or when people return to
their homes and begin clean-up. The most commonly encountered injuries include sprains/strains,
lacerations and abrasions/contusions. However, even in major flooding events, there is still a paucity of
information on nonfatal flood injuries mainly because these are not routinely reported or identified as
flood-related.
Tables 1 presents the immediate health effects of flood events in the Philippines in a five-year review.
From the tables, it can be said that deaths and injuries affect a small proportion of the total number of
affected individuals.

Table 1. Number of casualties, deaths and injuries among individuals affected by flood events,
Philippines (2005 – 2009) Year Number of Floods Total Number of Affected Individuals Total Number of
Casualties Total Number of Deaths Total Number of Injured People 2005 7 6,142 49 3 2 2006 20 81,799
69 26 23 2007 14 95,571 16 1 0 2008 41 82,389 30 17 13 2009 22 73,323 35 29 6 Source: HEARS
Database, Health Emergency Management Staff, Department of Health Case Study # 1: Typhoon Washi
(Local Name: Sendong) On December 2011, torrential rains and flooding brought about by Typhoon
Washi (Local Name: Sendong) struck Mindanao, which is rarely hit by typhoons. It was considered the
deadliest typhoon of 2011 killing over 1,200 individuals and with an estimated cost of damage at
approximately 1.5 billion PhP (USD 33 million). Medium-Term Health Effects

Water-related diseases.

The risk of water-related diseases is low UNLESS there is significant population displacement and/or if
water sources are compromised. In the days to weeks following a flood event, direct contact with
polluted waters result in an increased risk of infection such as wound infections, dermatitis,
conjunctivitis and ear, nose and throat infections (WHO, 2012). There is also an increased risk of
acquiring diseases that are transmitted by the fecal-oral route such as cholera, cryptosporidiosis, non-
specific diarrhea, poliomyelitis, rotavirus infection, and typhoid and paratyphoid fever (Ahern, et. al.,
2005). Moreover, rodent-borne disease such as leptospirosis and Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome may
also increase during heavy rainfall because of altered patterns of contact between human and rodents.
In the Philippines, following the 2009 floods from Tropical Storm Ketsana (Ondoy), there has been a
noted increase in the incidence of leptospirosis (see Figure 1), mainly as a result of wading barefoot in
flood waters. An increase in the number of cases of leptospirosis in affected areas resulted in a
significant burden on existing health resources, mainly on the provision of chemoprophylaxis and in the
1. Leptospirosis cases by morbidity week, Philippines, as of 12 October 2009 Vector-borne diseases. The
occurrence of vector-borne diseases depends, in part, on the effects of flooding on their breeding sites.
Since insect vectors breed in or close to stagnant or slowmoving water, flood waters can wash away
their breeding sites resulting in lower transmission of vector-borne diseases. However, it may also be
possible that the blocking of drains from debris brought about by flood waters can cause water
stagnation, favouring the breeding of insect vectors and a consequent increase in disease transmission
(Sidley, 2000) (See Figure 2). Examples of such vector-borne diseases are malaria, lymphatic filariasis and
arboviral infections.management of the severe form of the disease (Weil’s syndrome), which typically
requires admission in an intensive care unit.

Possible mechanisms for transmission of vector-borne diseases after floods (Adapted from Sidley, 2000)
Table 3 shows the leading reasons for medical consultation among persons in temporary shelters or
evacuation centers who were displaced from their homes after a flood event. The leading reasons for
consultation are mainly infectious diseases and diseases associated with poor sanitation. Table 3.
Leading reasons for medical consultation in evacuation centers (2005 - 2009) Reason for consultation
Average Number of Cases Skin /wound infections 62762 Upper respiratory tract infection 6318
Influenza-like illness 2440 Diarrhea 1729 Food poisoning 154 Injuries 143 Case Study # 2: Tropical Storm
Ketsana (Local Name: Ondoy) Tropical Storm Ketsana (Ondoy) struck Metro Manila and nearby regions
on September 2009, bringing with it a record high rainfall of 455 mm (17.9 in) in 24 hours. Flood waters
reached as high 6.1 m (20 feet). In the weeks following the flood disaster, the Department of Health
recorded an increased occurrence of vector-borne diseases (such as dengue fever) and waterborne
diseases (such as leptospirosis). However, diarrhea, respiratory infections, skin diseases, and fungal
infections were the biggest and the most common health concerns at that time.

Long-Term Health Effects Disability following a flood event is usually due to trauma i incurred during the
flood or associated with the exacerbation of chronic diseases. However, a most often missed group of
illnesses resulting from flood events, namely mental health problems, needs special mention because of
its burden on the quality of life of those affected. Major life stressors, such as disasters, increase
susceptibility to poor mental health [Phifer, et. al., 1988]. A study done by Reacher et. al. (2004)
indicated that people who have experienced a flood have a four-fold higher risk of psychological stress
that do those not exposed to flood. Commonly encountered mental health problems include anxiety and
depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). According to Axelrod, et. al (1994), suicide rate c
Responses to Health Risks from Flooding.

Efforts to tackle the health risks from flooding include actions that reduce vulnerability to health
impacts and measures to strengthen coping capacity in the face of health risks. Health outcomes of
floods can be seen as the culmination of a series of events whereby a flood hazard leads to mortality
and morbidity in humans exposed to the hazard. Hence, interventions can be made at various points
along this process, including structural and non-structural mechanisms of flood risk management. Good
baseline data is a prerequisite for accurate disease surveillance and needs assessment in flood events
such as the health needs of the population and the rehabilitation needs of health, water and sanitation
systems damaged by floods. Moreover, social differentiation in perception of risks and cultural barriers
to effective coping and take-up of interventions, highlight the need for health promotion and flood
warning activity to be tailored to local social contexts. These peculiarities in perceptions stress the
importance of communication of information to the public in a meaningful and accessible manner.
Advance planning is key for successful health education, warning and evacuation, emergency health care
provision, infrastructure protection and other aspects of health-related response to floods. Actions
should also be tailored to local circumstances and needs, and must promote institutional learning from
positive experiences and external examples of good practice. Moreover, there should be effective
coordination between sectors and agencies, and an effective linkage between scales of responsibility,
including the relations of trust and accountability between local public agencies and communities
subject to flooding. Responses to health effects of flood events need to be improved upon or scaled up
based on an evaluation of the effectiveness of existing and new health protection, health promotion and
system preparedness measures used in flood-prone locations. The evaluation process should include an
analysis of responses to ‘non-emergency’ floods as well as to extreme events, and the use of social
science approaches.an be as much as 13.8% higher that pre-disaster rates.

Conclusion and Recommendations

In view of the mounting health risks that flood disasters bring to affected population groups, the
Commission on Climate Change and Development in 2009 summarized recommendations (see Table 4)
on coping with the health effects of climate change into those that mean doing more of the same and
those that need to be done differently. Doing more of the same Strengthening the health system is
central to making populations resilient to the health effects of disasters. Specifically, the health system
should be able to monitor hazards and risks from potential flood disasters and be able to respond
promptly and adequately to address these risks. To ensure that the health system is responsive to the
threats and effects of disasters, existing surveillance systems should be strengthened by improving
access to primary care and by ensuring that surveillance mechanisms are standardized and strictly
adhered to. Doing things differently Improvements should be made in certain practices to mitigate the
health effects of flood disasters. Among these include maximizing utility of existing health information
systems such as through focusing surveillance efforts to areas and/or population groups at highest risk.
The health sector should also be involved in all planning efforts to mitigate the effects of natural disaster
so that health needs, both foreseen and unforeseen, are adequately and promptly addressed. Table 4.
Recommendations on how to cope with the health effects of climate change doing more of the same
Doing things differently  Strengthen health systems with a particular focus on human resources 
Improve access to water and sanitation  Improve surveillance systems with increase in international
collaborations.  Make better use of the few existing early warning systems for particular diseases. 
The health sector should make better use of early warning information available to aid public health
decisionmaking and preparedness.  Focus surveillance efforts at areas predicted to be at particularly
high risk for changing patterns of disease.  Take health risks into account when planning adaptation
measures.  Ensure the health sector is at the table when planning climate change adaptation in other
sectors.  Taking into account future sea level rise and flood-plains when planning  infrastructure The
urgency of systems preparedness to mitigate the varied and encompassing health effects of flooding and
other natural disasters as a result of climate change is reflected in a report of WHO Director General Dr.
Margaret Chan in the 2008 World Health Day: “The warming of the planet will be gradual, but the
effects of extreme weather events—more storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves—will be abrupt and
acutely felt. Both trends can affect some of the most fundamental determinants of health: air, water,
food, shelter and freedom from disease.

Acknowledgements

The researchers wish to acknowledge the Health Emergency Management Staff (HEMS) and the
National Epidemiology Center (NEC) of the Department of Health for providing data on the health
effects of flood disasters.

References 1. Ahern M, Kovat S (2005). The Health Impacts of Floods. In: Few R, Matthies F (eds): Floods
Hazards and Health. Trowbridge: Cromwell Press. 2. Ahern M, Kovats RS, Wilkinson P, Few R, Matthies F
(2005). Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence. Epidemiol Rev 2005; 27:36–46 3.
Axelrod C, Killam PP, Gaston MH, Stinson N (1994). Primary health care and the Midwest flood disaster.
Public Health Rep 1994; 109(5):601–605. 4. Bennet G (1970). Bristol floods 1968. Controlled survey of
effects on health of local community disaster. Br Med J 1970; 3:454–8. 5. Commission on Climate
Change and Development (2009). Climate change and health. Accessed from
http://www.ccdcommission.org/Filer/commissioners/Health.pdf on 24 March 2012. 6. Department of
Health, Health Emergency Management Staff 7. Department of Health, National Epidemiology Center 8.
Du W, FitzGerald GJ, Clark M, Hou XY (2010). Health impacts of floods. Prehosp Disaster Med 2010;
25(3):265–272. 9. French J, Ing R, Von Allmen S, Wood R (1983): Mortality from flash floods: A review of
National Weather Service Reports 1969–81. Public Health Rep 1983; 98(6):584–588. 10. Jonkman S,
Kelman I (2005). An analysis of causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. Disasters 2005;
29:75–97. 11. Malilay J (1997). Floods. In: EK Noji (ed), The Public Health Consequences of Disasters.
New York: Oxford University Press. 12. Phifer K, Kaniasty K, Norris F (1988). The impact of natural
disaster on the health of older adults: A multi-wave prospective study. J Health Soc Behav 1988; 29:65–
78. 13. Reacher M, McKenzie K, Lane C, Nichols T, Kedge I, Iversen A, Hepple P, Walter T, Laxton C,
Simpson J, Lewes Flood Action Recovery Team (2004). Health impacts of flooding in Lewes: a
comparison of reported gastrointestinal and other illness and mental health in flooded and non-flooded
households. Commun Dis Public Health 2004; 7(1):56–63. 14. Sidley P (2000). Malaria epidemic expected
in Mozambique. BMJ 2000; 320:669.

Landslide Hazard and Risk Assessment

UNISDR DECEMBER 5 2015

Abstract

The term “landslide” refers to a variety of processes that result in the downward and outward
movement of slope-forming materials, including rock, soil, artificial fill, or a combination of these. The
materials may move by falling, toppling, sliding, spreading, or flowing. The schematics in figure 1
illustrate the major types of landslide movement.

Key words: landslide, landslide hazard, landslide vulnerability, landslide hazard map, risk management.

INTRODUCTION
In many parts of the world, landslides are a frequent natural hazard and a major threat to humans and
the environment. According to the International Disaster Database of the Centre for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) (EM-DAT) , since 1900 some 130,000 persons have lost their lives 2
because of landslides and flash floods; and the economic losses amounted to over US$ 50 billion. In the
period from 2000 to 2014, the corresponding figures were around 26,000 deaths and US$ 40 billion in
losses. The actual figures are, however, much higher. In the CRED-EM database, the losses due to
earthquake-triggered landslides are attributed to earthquakes, and many landslide events with no
casualties, but significant material losses are not reported. For example, 20-25 per cent United States
Geological Survey (2004). Landslide types and processes. Fact sheet 2004-3072. 1 Available from
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2004/3072/fs-2004-3072.html 2 Guha-Sapir, D., R. Below and P. Hoyois. The
CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database. Université catholique de Louvain. Belgium. 2 Figure 1 -
Schematics illustrating the major types of landslide movement1. of the 87,000 casualties (69,000
confirmed killed and 18,000 missing) caused by the Sichuan (or Wenchuan) Earthquake of 12 May 2008
were the result of the landslides triggered by that event. Recent catastrophic landslides in 3 Afghanistan,
United States, the Philippines and India illustrate that landslides are still a major threat in developed as
well as developing countries. The volume of soil and rock mobilized in a landslide can vary from a small
individual boulder to millions, and in rare cases billions, of cubic metres. Generally, the potential
destructiveness of a landslide is a function of the volume of the masses that are mobilized, and their
velocity. But even a single boulder can cause several fatalities.

Sources and setting The primary driving factor of landslides is gravity acting on a portion of a slope that
is out of equilibrium. The following are some of the major landslide triggering mechanisms: • River
erosions, glaciers, or ocean waves • Weakening of rock and soil slope proprieties through water
saturation by snowmelt or heavy rains • Stresses, strains and excess of pore pressures induced by the
inertial forces during an earthquake (earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 can trigger
landslides) • Volcanic eruptions with the production of loose ash deposits that may become debris flows
(known as lahars) during heavy rains • Stockpiling of rock or ore, from waste piles, or from man-made
structures • Changes of the natural topography caused by human activity. 3 Zhang, L.M., S. Zhang and
R.Q. Huang (2014). Multi-hazard scenarios and consequences in Beichuan, China: the first five years
after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Engineering Geology, vol.180, pp. 4-20. 3 Landslide hazard
assessment Landslide hazard is a function of susceptibility (spatial propensity to landslide activity) and
temporal frequency of landslide triggers, and its assessment may be done on local (individual slope),
regional, national, continental, or even global scales. The most appropriate method in each scale
depends on the extent of the study area and on the available data. Examples of various methodologies
for landslide hazard assessment on different scales can be found in the literature.4 56 7 ,,, In any type of
landslide hazard assessment, there is a need to consider topography and other factors that influence the
propensity to landslide activity (susceptibility factors), as well as landslide triggering factors
(precipitation, earthquakes, human activity). Table 1 lists the input data typically required for landslide
hazard assessment at regional to national scales. 4 Nadim, F. and others (2006). Global landslide and
avalanche hotspots. Landslides, vol. 3, issue 2, pp. 159-173. 5 Nadim, F., H. Einstein and W.J. Roberts
(2005). Probabilistic stability analysis for individual slopes in soil and rock. Proceedings of the
International Conference on Landslide Risk Management. 6 Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (2010).
SafeLand project. Overview of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices. 7 Corominas, J. and others
(2014). Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk. Bulletin of Engineering Geology
and the Environment, vol. 73, issue 2, pp. 209-263. 4 There are many sources and types of uncertainty in
landslide hazard assessment. By far the main source of uncertainty is the epistemic uncertainty related
to our limited knowledge about the materials that make up the slope(s), their response under various
external perturbations, and the characteristics of the triggering factors. Soils, rocks and other
geomaterials exhibit significant spatial variability (aleatory uncertainty) and their properties often
change markedly over small distances. Many non-local scale landslide hazard assessment models are
empirical and should be calibrated/validated with regional and/or national database(s) of previous
landslide events. Landslide inventory maps are often an important input for the landslide
susceptibility/hazard assessment and/or validation. However, even in developed countries, the
databases of landslide events are usually far from complete. Often they only cover the events from the
recent past, and/or have an over-representation of landslides triggered by a single extreme event,
and/or are heavily biased towards the events reported by a single source, such as the national road or
rail authority. Climate change increases the susceptibility of surface soil to instability because of
abandoned agricultural areas, deforestation and other land-cover modifications. Anthropogenic
activities and uncontrolled land-use are other Digital elevation model National mapping and cartography
authority SRTM30 (NASA) Lithology National geological survey UNESCO (CGMW, 2000), One Geology
initiative Vegetation cover National agriculture/ environment and/or national forest agency GLC2000
database Soil moisture factor National agriculture/ environment and/or national meteorological agency
Climate Prediction Center Hourly, daily and monthly precipitation National meteorological agency Global
Precipitation Climatology Centre of the German National Meteorological Service, DWD Seismicity
National building code(s) Global Seismic Hazard Program, Global Earthquake Model Infrastructure and
road/railway network in mountainous regions National road and/or railway authority Google maps 5
Table 1 - Sources of data for landslide risk assessments at regional and national scale important factors
that amplify the uncertainty in landslide hazard assessment. Exposure and vulnerability assessment
Exposure of the population and/or the built environment to landslide risk can be assessed by
superimposing landslide hazard map(s) on maps of population density, the built environment and
infrastructure. However, this type of assessment provides only a qualitative picture of the exposure.
Landslides vulnerability assessment is a complex process that should consider multiple dimensions and
aspects, including both physical and socioeconomic factors. Physical vulnerability of buildings and
infrastructure is a function of the intensity of the landslide event and the resistance levels of the
exposed elements.8 9 10 11 12 13 ,, , , , Societal vulnerability and resilience of a community, on the
other hand, are related to factors such as demographics, preparedness levels, memory of past events,
and institutional and non-institutional capacity for handling natural hazards. Although a significant
amount of literature exists on the 14 assessment of societal vulnerability to natural hazards, few studies
specifically address the social and economic vulnerability to landslides. In the SafeLand project, an
indicator-based methodology was developed to assess the (relative) societal vulnerability levels. The
indicators represent the underlying factors that influence a community’s ability to deal with and recover
from the damage associated with landslides. , 15 16 The proposed methodology includes indicators that
represent demographic, economic and social characteristics such as the human development index and
gross domestic product, and indicators representing the degree of preparedness and 8 Uzielli, M. and
others (2008). A conceptual framework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides.
Engineering Geology, vol.102, issues 3-4, pp. 251-256. 9 Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (2011).
SafeLand project. Physical vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides: methodology for evaluation,
fragility curves and damage states for buildings and lifelines. 10 __________ Case studies of
environmental and societal impact of landslides – Part A: Rev. 1. Case studies for environmental
(physical) vulnerability. 11 Papathoma-Köhle, M. (2016). Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators:
application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards. Natural Hazards and Earth
System Sciences, vol. 16, pp. 1771-1790. 12 Eidsvig, U.M.K. and others (2014). Quantification of model
uncertainty in debris flow vulnerability assessment. Engineering Geology, vol. 181, pp.15-26. 13 Winter,
M.G. and others (2014). An expert judgement approach to determining the physical vulnerability of
roads to debris flow. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, vol. 73, issue 2, pp. 291-305.
14 Cutter, S., J. Boruff and L. Shirley (2003). Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science
Quarterly, vol. 84, issue 2, pp. 242-261. 15 Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (2012). SafeLand project.
Methodology for evaluation of the socio-economic impact of landslides (socio-economic vulnerability).
16 Eidsvig, U.M.K. and others (2014). Assessment of socioeconomic vulnerability to landslides using an
indicator-based approach: methodology and case studies. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the
Environment, vol. 73, issue 2, pp. 307-324. 6 recovery capacity. The purpose of the societal vulnerability
assessment is to set priorities, serve as background for action, raise awareness, analyse trends and
empower risk management. Risk assessment use in national DRR measures Studies on global
distribution of landslide hazard, as well as detailed 17 assessment of the reported occurrence of
landslide disasters in the CRED-EM database, suggest that the most exposed countries to landslide risk
are located in south Asia, along the Himalayan belt, in east Asia, south-eastern Asia, and in Central and
South America. In most developed countries with high landslide hazard, landslide events rarely end up
as disasters. This is mainly due to the low exposure in the most landslide-prone areas, as well as the
increasing ability to identify the landslide-prone areas and to implement appropriate landslide risk
management actions. Many countries that have areas with high landslide hazard lack the necessary
legislation and regulations to prioritize and implement a landslide risk mitigation plan. Often it is
asserted that it “takes a disaster to get a policy response”, and case studies of landslide risk
management in different countries show a relationship between the incidence of disasters, and progress
and shifts in landslide risk management. 18 Disasters can catalyse moments of change in risk
management aims, policy and practice. Increasingly, the decision-making processes of the authorities in
charge of reducing the risk of landslides and other hazards are moving from “expert” decisions to
include the public and other stakeholders.19 In practice, effective landslide risk mitigation should be
implemented at local (individual slope) or regional level. On the local scale, the design of a risk
mitigation measure, for example an early warning system, can be based on a number of reasonable
scenarios and may involve the following steps: • Define scenarios for triggering the landslide(s) and
evaluate their probability of occurrence • Estimate the volume and extent of the landslide and compute
the run-out distance for each scenario • Estimate the losses for all elements at risk for each scenario 17
Nadim, F. and others (2012). Assessment of Global Landslide Hazard Hotspots. Berlin and Heidelberg:
Springer. 18 Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (2011). SafeLand project. Five scoping studies of the
policy issues, political culture and stakeholder views in the selected case study sites – description of
methodology and comparative synthesis report. 19 Scolobig, A., M. Thompson and J. Linnerooth-Bayer
(2016). Compromise not consensus: designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation.
Natural Hazards, vol. 81, supplement 1, pp. 45-68. 7 • Compare the estimated risk with risk
acceptance/risk tolerance criteria • Implement appropriate risk mitigation measures if required. It is not
clear that this level of rigour is always practised in landslide risk management, especially in poor
countries where resources are limited. Good practice of landslide risk management One of the best
examples of good landslide risk management practice is found in Hong Kong, China. Hong Kong is
situated on the south-eastern coast of China, has a subtropical climate with an average annual rainfall of
2,300 mm, peaking in the summer, with regular rainfall events of intensities exceeding 100 mm/hour.
Hong Kong has a small land area of about 1,100 km2, over 60 per cent of which is located on hilly
terrain. Its population has increased steadily from 2 million in 1950 to over 7 million today. This has led
to a huge demand for land for residential use and infrastructure, and resulted in a substantial portion of
urban development located on or close to man-made slopes and natural hillsides. Man-made slopes that
are not properly designed and steep hillsides are susceptible to landslides during heavy rainfall, and
debris flows are common in natural terrain. As a result, landslides are a large natural hazard in Hong
Kong, where they can cause significant casualties and socioeconomic impacts. On 18 June 1972, after
days of heavy rainfall, two destructive landslides in Sau Mau Ping and at Po Shan Road in Hong Kong
killed one hundred and thirty-eight people, covered a resettlement area with landslide debris and
caused a high-rise building to collapse. In 1977, in the aftermath of these and other fatal landslide
disasters, the Geotechnical Control Office (now the Geotechnical Engineering Office (GEO)) was set up to
strategically implement a comprehensive system to maintain slope safety. The Slope Safety System it
developed comprises several initiatives to reduce landslide risk in a holistic manner. The key
components of the system are comprehensive enforcement of geotechnical standards, community
participation for slope safety, systems for early warning and emergency response, and comprehensive
databases of landslide events and implemented risk mitigation measures. Several studies show that the
implementation of the Slope Safety System has reduced the annual fatalities due to landslides by over
50 per cent since the late 1970s. There have now been no fatalities in 20 almost a decade. Programmes
that have achieved this level of success are rare and are obtained at considerable cost. In developing
countries, few, if any, examples 20 Malone, A.W. (1997). Risk Management and Slope Safety in Hong
Kong. The Hong Kong Institution of Engineers. 8 exist of successful countrywide reduction in landslide
losses as a result of such initiatives. Landslides are among the most potentially manageable of all natural
hazards, given the range of approaches and techniques that are available to reduce the level of hazard.
There is much scope to reduce their impacts.

Authors

Farrokh Nadim (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute) Contributors and Peer Reviewers: Bjørn Kalsnes
(NGI), Dave Petley (Sheffield University), Michel Jaboyedoff (University of Lausanne), Nicola Casagli
(University of Florence), Paola Reichenbach, Fausto Guzzetti (Italian National Research Council)

Reference

21Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (2012). SafeLand project. R&D program Safeland. Abstract available
from www.ngi.no/eng/Projects/SafeLand 22 Government of Canada (2017). Hazards: Landslides.
Available from www.nrcan.gc.ca/hazards/ landslides 23International Consortium on Landslides.
Available from http://icl.iplhq.org/category/home-icl/ 24 Landslide Hazards Program. Available from
http://landslides.usgs.gov/ 25 Geotechnical Engineering Office (2012). Hong Kong Slope Safety. Available
from http:// hkss.cedd.gov.hk/hkss/eng/index.aspx 26 United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction
(2015). Global Assessment Report. Available from www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/ 27
Anderson, M. and L. Holcombe. Management of Slope Stability in Communities. Available from
www.bristol.ac.uk/geography/research/hydrology/research/slope/mossiac.
 Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in the Philippines: Spatial and temporal
patterns
Article in Security Journal · March 2015 DOI: 10.1057/sj.2015.1
Dan Jerome S. Barrera College of Criminal Justice Education, Negros Oriental State University,
Dumaguete City 6200, Philippines. E-mail: danjerome.barrera@norsu.edu.ph

Abstract

Previous research on bomb threats focused primarily on offender characteristics and ignored the spatial
and temporal patterns of these events. This study argues that bomb threats and reports of suspicious
items are non-random events in space and time. Thus, the study explores the spatial and temporal
patterns of these phenomena in the Philippines from January 2010 to April 2014. The author retrieves
the data on these events from unclassified online media outlets and coded them for subsequent
analysis. Most threats are low-level threats, which offenders communicate through text messages and
calls made to government agencies, school buildings, and commercial establishments. Of these targets,
airports, city halls, and courthouses have the highest risk of repeat threats. Although these threats have
frequently forced evacuation of target occupants, authorities find no actual explosives in all targets. On
the other hand, alert observers usually report unattended bags and boxes as suspicious items found in
commercial buildings, government buildings, transport buildings, and highways. Moreover, spatial and
temporal analysis reveals that bomb threats and reports of suspicious items are concentrated in space
and time. Most threats and reports occur in the country’s National Capital Region (NCR), during daytime
on weekdays. At the NCR level, these events cluster at a triad of cities: Manila, Quezon, and Pasay.
Current evidence supports the argument that these rare phenomena are non-random events in space
and time. Security Journal advance online publication, 9 March 2015; doi:10.1057/sj.2015.1

Keywords: bomb threats; reports of suspicious items; spatial and temporal patterns; Philippines

Introduction

Bomb-related incidents such as bomb threats and reports of suspicious items are highintensity events.
Bomb threats have created chaos in institutions, causing fear, uncertainty, and panic. Although not as
destructive as actual explosions, anecdotal accounts show considerable financial losses and other
damages because of these intimidations (Bowman, 2004; Newman, 2011). For example, in 1999, school
officials closed Madison City Schools for two days after receiving serious bomb threats. The costs of the
incident were estimated to be nearly US$ 250 000 (or $356 295.02 in 2014 US inflation rate)1 which
includes the accounting for the classes being suspended, canine search expenses, and other losses
(Kiesewetter, 1999). However, unlike bomb attacks, which have been subjected to numerous studies,
bomb threats and reports of suspicious items received little attention from researchers. © 2015
Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21 www.palgrave-journals.com/sj/ The
literature on bomb threats and reports of suspicious items has focused primarily on how to prepare and
how to handle such events should they occur (for example, Higgins, 2004; Siljander, 2008; Newman,
2011; Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2012). Nevertheless, recent researches (that is, US Department of
Justice, 2001; Häkkänen, 2006; Zaitsu, 2010) have begun studying bomb threats empirically. The US
Department of Justice (2001) studied the behavior and characteristics of bomb offenders, including
those who had committed bomb threats and planted hoax devices. Recently, two studies – one was
conducted by Häkkänen (2006) in Finland, and the other by Zaitsu (2010) in Japan – tracked similar line
of inquiry. These studies provided empirical insights on bomb threat offense and offender
characteristics. These studies, however, are primarily individual-based, focusing on the characteristics of
persons. In contrast, this study looks into space and time patterns, and argues that bomb threats and
reports of suspicious items are concentrated in place and time, thus depicting spatio-temporal patterns.
The identification of these patterns will help advance our knowledge and create approaches to control
these events. For this reason, this study explores the spatial and temporal dimensions of bomb threats
and reports of suspicious items in the Philippines. Specifically, it searches for repeat victimization, hot
spot, and hot time patterns of bomb threats and reports of suspicious items. The next section ‘Bomb
threats and reports of suspicious items’ discusses the literature on bomb threats and environmental
criminology. Then, the remaining parts of the study – the methodology, results, discussion and
conclusion – will follow.
Bomb Threats and Reports of Suspicious Items

A bomb threat is a ‘furtive crime’ that is easy to perpetrate (Newman, 2011). Usually, the offender
communicates threats secretly far from the target. Advances in communications create impeccable
opportunity for offenders to communicate threats without fear of detection and apprehension. These
features make it easy to perpetrate either with deliberate planning or upon the impulse of the moment.
Thus, the Philippines (as well as other countries) have experienced spates of bomb threats in which
authorities remain clueless of the offenders’ identities. This study defines bomb threat as ‘a
communication to anyone that states that a bomb or destructive device has been placed or will be
placed’ (US Department of Justice, 2001, p. 29), or that an explosive is about to explode in or at a
building, a person, or anything. On the other hand, a report of a suspicious item is a communication
indicating – without malice – the presence of a suspected bomb, usually unattended bags, boxes, and
vehicles.2 A suspicious item is ‘any item (e.g. package or vehicle) identified as potentially containing
explosives, an IED, or other hazardous material that requires bomb technician diagnostic skills and
specialized equipment to further evaluate’ (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2012, p. 9). Thus, this study
distinguishes bomb threats from reports of suspicious items. A bomb threat is an act of threatening that
there is a bomb, or the target will be destroyed by means of a bomb. Whereas, a report of a suspicious
item originates from any person who has seen an unattended package or vehicle suspected as a bomb
or containing a bomb and reported the same to authorities for inspection. Although limited, there have
been previous studies on bomb threats. However, no study has examined reports of suspicious items.

Past research (that is, US Department of Justice, 2001; Häkkänen, 2006; Zaitsu, 2010) in the United
States, Finland, and Japan uncovered the offender and offense characteristics of bomb threats. Most
bomb threat offenders were middle-aged men who were connected to the targets (institutions or
individuals) and had extensive criminal histories or at least suspected of prior offenses. They directed
most of their attacks against commercial buildings (for example, banks, malls, businesses and
restaurants) and transport buildings (for example, airports). Seldom had they threatened individuals.
Often, they communicated threats through telephone while away from the target. However, there is
disparate temporal patterning of threats in Finland and Japan. In Finland, offenders typically threatened
targets on the nights of Fridays and Saturdays. In Japan, during daytime on weekdays. In addition, these
studies discovered the motives of bomb threat offenders. Reasons given by offenders include extortion,
resentment, intimidation, diversion, vandalism, drawing attention, part of gang activity, to check the
security of the site or just a ‘silly idea.’ Higgins (2004) adds two opposite reasons why a bomb threat is
reported to authorities. First, when a person knows that a bomb is planted or is about to be planted at
an installation and he/she wants to avoid probable injury or destruction to lives and property. Second,
he/she wants the target persons to experience fear and anxiety, thereby disrupting the normal
operation of the target institution because of the perceived risk. Contrary to Häkkänen’s (2006) findings,
Zaitsu (2010) found a connection between offender and offense characteristics in Japan. Consequently,
he classified bomb threat offenders into three themes – instrumental, expressive/affective, and
expressive/cognitive. Instrumental offenders threatened department stores and banks with the aim of
extorting money from these establishments. They were less likely related to their targets, and they
communicated their threats through public phones. Expressive/cognitive offenders – motivated by
diversion or causing chaos – often threatened railways, schools, and administration buildings. These
offenders were more likely related to their targets than instrumental offenders, and they used public
and mobile phones in communicating threats. Finally, expressive/affective offenders were motivated by
resentment in targeting administration buildings and schools. Similar to expressive/cognitive offenders,
these offenders were more likely connected to their targets and used home phone and own mobile
phone in communicating threats. In all three themes, most offenders were middle-aged men who had
criminal histories of committing fraud and communicated their threats during weekdays at daytime. The
US Department of Justice (2001) classifies bomb threats as low, medium, and highlevel threats. A threat
with no explosives (either actual or hoax) is a low-level threat. A medium-level threat includes a hoax
device (a device that is made to resemble like a bomb or the package of a bomb) but contain no
explosives. Lastly, threats accompanied with actual explosives are high-level threats. Moreover,
authorities could assess the seriousness of the threat based on the specificity of the message from the
offender (Tunkel, 2002; Newman, 2011) – either vague or specific. These classifications, in turn, dictate
the type of response executed by institutions. Institutions can execute at least three major types of
response to threats: ignore the threat, evacuate immediately, and search and evacuate if warranted
(Higgins, 2004; Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2012). Of these, Higgins (2004, p. 270) posits that the
third alternative is ‘perhaps the most desired approach,’ because it fills the void of the first two. If the
response policy is to ignore the threat, the offender might go beyond threatening and place an actual
Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in the Philippines © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-
1662 Security Journal 1–21 3 explosive. In addition, if the occupants discover such threat and learned
that authorities have ignored it, their trust, confidence, and morale would be affected. Finally,
immediate evacuation upon receiving a threat serves as a reward for future threatening behaviors. With
this, persons who have learned such policy may just choose to communicate a threat in order to escape
scheduled responsibilities such as at work and school, and the repetition of this act is highly probable

Environmental Criminology and the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Crime

The analysis, interpretation, and understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of criminal activity are well
within the field of environmental criminology (Wortley and Mazerolle, 2008). In this field, crime is the
primary focus of theory, analysis, and practice – not the person. Crime is seen as a product of person-
situation interaction and is determined by the criminogenic environments in which it is perpetrated.
Since criminogenic environments and human activities are patterned, it follows that crime has non-
random distribution across space and time, allowing the analysts to visualize the ‘where’ and ‘when’ of
crimes and subject them to analysis using techniques in geography. The visualization of crime in space
and time is crucial in deploying limited police and community resources for crime prevention purposes.
Three complementing theories attempt to explain crime patterns in space and time: rational choice
perspective, routine activity approach, and crime pattern theory. Rational choice perspective explicates
the nature of the crime and its actor – purposive and rational (Cornish and Clarke, 2008). The offender
calculates the risk and benefits of criminal activities and ‘will try to select the best available means to
achieve them’ (Cornish and Clarke, 2008, p. 25). However, because of situational constraints (upon
planning or committing an offense), the offender would likely settle for satisfactory and sufficient
methods and outcomes. Crime happens when this rational and motivated offender converges with a
suitable target in the absence of a capable guardian (Cohen and Felson, 1979). At this point, the routine
activity approach comes in. Recent rehashing of the theory, however, results in the depiction of a more
comprehensive crime triangle: two triangles, one engulfing the other (see Felson, 1995; Felson, 2008). In
this new version, crime happens when a motivated offender, who is freed from the control of a handler,
converges with a suitable target with no capable guardian at a given place, with no manager or with
ineffective management to control crime. The offender-target convergence is largely dictated by the
routine activities of the two. Crime pattern theory combines the two preceding theories in explaining
why crimes are patterned in space and time (Brantingham and Brantingham, 2008). An individual –
criminal or non-criminal – has a routine travel route he/she frequently traverses in his everyday life. For
instance, a professor might have a habitual route from his residence to the university, from the
university to the church or mall, and from there back to his/her residence. Other individuals also have
their usual travel paths. Crime may occur when an offender with premeditated crime decision template
traverses a person’s route, and this person, who is a suitable target, also traverses the offender’s route,
with no other thing or person that discourages crime. With this circumstance, crime may take place.
Thus, places and times when different routes cross, could be a potential point clusters of emerging
crimes. These places might be what Brantingham and Brantingham (2008) call as ‘crime generators’ and
‘crime attractors’ in the urban backcloth, where lots of opportunities to offend, lots of targets and lots
of probable offenders converge in space and time. Crime generators are places that are not actually
criminogenic but offers a lot of opportunity because lots of people (criminal or non-criminal) are
attracted to these places (for example, schools, malls, office concentrations and the like). Crime
attractors are places that typically attract offenders because of the criminal opportunities they naturally
possess (for example, bar districts, prostitution strolls, drug markets and the like). Researches hinged on
the environmental criminology perspective consistently show that crimes are patterned in space and
time. Two of the more well-researched crime patterns are hot spots and repeat victimization patterns.
Hot spots are places that have disproportionate clustering of crimes compared with the other places in a
given geographical area (Sherman et al, 1989; Harries, 1999; Ratcliffe, 2004; Eck, 2005). Perhaps, the
landmark study of Sherman et al (1989) best describes the hot-spotting of crimes. They found that about
50 per cent of 323 979 predatory calls to police were concentrated in only 3 per cent of 115 000 street
addresses and intersections in Minneapolis. However, hot spots are not restricted to small places; high
concentrations of crimes could be at the provincial, regional, or national level (Eck, 2005). On the other
hand, hot times are time periods when crimes disproportionately cluster (Sherman and Weisburd, 1995;
Ratcliffe, 2004). Crimes also show repeat victimization patterns (Pease, 1998; Farrell and Pease, 2008;
Pease, 2008). Repeat victimization occurs when a particular person, object, or place has experienced
several victimizations of the same offense within a time frame. Criminologists offer two explanations for
this event: flag and boost accounts (Pease, 1998; 2008). Flag accounts hypothesize that the seemingly
stable characteristics of some victims make them more likely to be repeatedly victimized. On the other
hand, boost accounts imply that the favorable experience or effects of the first victimization motivate
the offender to return and commit the same crime against the same target. However, what does one
call the victimization of two distant targets because of their similarity? For example, a burglar who has
burgled one Petrol Station (thereby making him familiar with the layout of this station) burgles another
Petrol Station with the same or similar design? On the basis of Ashton et al’s (1998) offender accounts of
repeat victimization, Pease (1998) calls these events as ‘virtual repeats’. Virtual repeats are ‘instances
where targets are selected because offenders have already offended against similar or identical targets’
(Pease, 2008, p. 600). Virtual repeats occur because similar targets offer similar prospects for the
offender – similar modus operandi, risk, and rewards (Farrell and Pease, 2008; Pease, 2008).

Why Would Bomb Threats and Reports of Suspicious Items Cluster in Space and Time?

This study argues that, although statistically rare, bomb threats and reports of suspicious items have
spatial and temporal patterns for the following reasons. First, crimes tend to cluster at or near crime
generators and/or attractors (such as malls, schools, offices, bar districts) which also cluster in some
places in a geographic area. Previous studies (that is, US Department of Justice, 2001; Häkkänen, 2006;
Zaitsu, 2010) revealed that bomb threat offenders tend to threaten crime generators (for example,
commercial and transport buildings) where lots of people usually converge. Thus, bomb threats may
cluster spatially. Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in the Philippines © 2015 Macmillan
Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21 5 Second, routine activities of people (criminal or non-
criminal) affect the temporal distribution of predatory crimes, which tend to cluster when there is a
massive influx of people at a particular place. Since one of the intentions of bomb threat offenders is to
create a situation of fear and anxiety among a large group of people, and the convergence of people
within the known targets (most of the time) cluster because most office hours are scheduled during
weekdays at daytime in the Philippines; then, most likely, bomb threats may cluster temporally –
especially during weekdays at daytime. Third, reports of suspicious items are not intentional threats.
They often occur when a person leaves a package (for example, bag or box) unattended. An alert
observer, then, reports the suspicious item to authorities for technical inspection to ensure the safety of
many people. This study argues that the reporting of these items is affected by previous knowledge of
terrorist bombings or any other bombings and perhaps knowledge of previous bomb threats that usually
occur at places or times where and when many people converge. Past bombings in the Philippines
frequently targeted urban areas in the country (Human Rights Watch, 2007; Relatorres et al, 2013).
Thus, these reports might also have spatial (as well as temporal) patterns, and that these should occur at
places and times where there is a massive influx of people.

Methodology

Study area The Republic of the Philippines is an archipelago located at the southeast part of Asia (Figure
1). It has a total land area of 300 000 km2 and is composed of approximately 1700 islands. These islands
are grouped into three: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. In Luzon is the National Capital Region (NCR)
where the capital – Manila City – of the country is situated. Cebu City and Davao City are the business
hubs of the Visayas and Mindanao, respectively. Figure 1: Map of the Republic of the Philippines.
Barrera 6 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21 On the basis of the 2010
Census of Population and Housing, the country’s total population is 92 337 852; one-third of these are
clustered at Central Luzon (NSO, 2012). The country’s past is characterized with colonization by western
countries and subsequent Filipino uprisings. Its immediate past and the present are characterized with
industrialization, malfeasance in the government, natural calamities, government versus insurgent
encounters, and terrorist attacks involving armed attacks and bombings. Bombings in the Philippines
mostly concentrated in Mindanao; however, sporadic (and destructive) attacks also occur in other island
groups, even at the NCR (Human Rights Watch, 2007; Banlaoi, 2011; Relatorres et al, 2013). Because of
this, the atmosphere of anxiety towards bombings makes institutions and individuals vulnerable to
bomb threats that some people with ill intents take advantage. Recent spates of bomb threats caused
educational and commercial institutions to temporarily halt their normal course of operations (Ateneo
de Manila University, 2014; Ramos, 2014). Finally, to prevent bomb explosions, the government calls on
the public to report immediately to authorities any suspicious item, which might contain improvised
explosive device (IED; Philippine National Police, n.d.).

Data and Analysis

Like terrorist attacks and actual bombings, bomb threats and reports of suspicious items are high-
intensity events. These events are proceeded with conspicuous police response, (most of the time)
evacuation of building occupants, and the atmosphere of fear and anxiety. Thus, these events are
covered and reported by the media through print and/or online news reports. Data used in this study
were retrieved from available unclassified media reports available on the internet covering the period of
January 2010–April 2014 (the time of this writing). This data collection technique is similar to what some
open source terrorism databases perform such as the Global Terrorism Database (LaFree and Dugan,
2007) and the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (Wigle, 2010). Data collection was done using the
Google’s Web Browser Search Tools. Data were gathered from each web page retrieved through the
input of Google search operators (that is, intext and intitle), search words (that is, bomb threats, hoaxes
and Philippines) and Google search tool filters (that is, Country: Philippines; Custom Date Range: One
Month). Then, news reports were coded according to the variables in the study and encoded in a data
table. Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items were analyzed separately and as a whole. Analysis
was conducted through the use of the Excel Spreadsheet, the QGIS software (QGIS Development Team,
2013), and the CrimeStat III (Levine, 2010) spatial statistics program. Bomb threat and reports of
suspicious items characteristics were analyzed using Excel. QGIS was used to manipulate and depict
spatial data, and the CrimeStat package was used to analyze spatial patterns. Details of the analyses are
incorporated in the results section.

Results

This section presents the results of the analysis which comprise: (a) characteristics of bomb threats and
reports of suspicious items; (b) repeat victimization patterns; and (c) spatial patterns and temporal
patterns. Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in the Philippines © 2015 Macmillan Publishers
Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21 7 Characteristics of bomb threats Majority of the bomb threats (N=
102) were low-level threats (96 per cent), followed by medium-level threats (4 per cent) and no high-
level threat. The response to these threats was mostly evacuation (69 per cent); only 10 per cent of the
cases did not evacuate the building occupants while conducting search; and the author could not
ascertain the response to 22 per cent of the cases from the current data. All searches conducted within
the targets yielded no actual explosives. Most threats were against government, educational and
commercial buildings (Table 1). The top targets were higher educational institutions (HEIs; N =18), courts
(N =15), high schools (N =11), airports (N = 9), and city halls (N =6). Offenders seldom targeted
transportation vehicles, and they had not threatened an individual. Of the government buildings,
offenders commonly targeted courts and city halls (Table 2). HEIs (universities and colleges) scored the
highest victimization among the educational buildings, followed by high schools (N = 11) and elementary
schools (N = 2). Most of the commercial buildings targeted were call centers, condominiums, and
business offices (Table 3). Transport buildings comprised airports (N =9) and a bus terminal (N =1).
Airplanes (N = 2) and buses (N =3) were the transport vehicles offenders commonly threatened.
Typically, offenders communicated threats through text messages and calls (Table 4). Table 1: Types of
bomb threat targets Type of targets Count % Government buildings 33 32 Educational buildings 31 30
Commercial buildings 23 23 Transport buildings 10 10 Transport vehicles 5 5 Table 2: Government
building bomb threat targets Government buildings Count % Court houses 15 45 City halls 6 18 Land
Transportation Office 2 6 Law enforcement agency 2 6 Barangay hall 1 3 Congress 1 3 Department of
Justice 1 3 Gymnasium 1 3 Hospital 1 3 Printing office 1 3 Provincial Capitol 1 3 Tax office 1 3 Barrera 8 ©
2015 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21

Characteristics of reports of suspicious items

 The study recorded 24 reports of suspicious items in the country (January 2010–April 2014). Of these,
one case yielded an actual explosive – a rifle grenade without a trigger device. Alert observers typically
found suspicious items in commercial buildings, government buildings, transport buildings and highways
(Table 5). The top five locations were buses (N =3), malls (N =3), airports (N =2), train stations (N= 2), and
hotels (N= 2). For the commercial buildings, the targets comprised three malls, two hotels, a
communications provider and a restaurant. On the other hand, the government building which had
reported bomb threats were; a city hall, an embassy, the Philippine Congress, and a law enforcement
agency. On the reported items at transport terminals, two were from airports, another two from train
stations, and one from a bus terminal. All suspicious items in transport vehicles were found in buses.
Alert observers frequently reported unattended bags (n= 12) and boxes (n =10) as suspicious items; the
remaining comprised a van and a cab.

Repeat

Victimization patterns To identify high-risk targets, the author conducted repeat victimization analysis.
Although the data seemed insufficient for this analysis (Weisel (2005) suggests at least 100 cases per
year), repeat patterns still emerged, except on reports of suspicious items. These reports were scattered
across different locations, making the suspicious items analysis result reveal no Table 5: Locations of
suspicious items Type of locations Count % Commercial buildings 7 29 Government buildings 5 21
Transport buildings 5 21 Highways 4 17 Transport vehicles 3 13 Table 7: Concentration of bomb threats
among the top five targets Number of threats HEI Courts High schools Airports City halls Targets (%)
Offenses (%) Targets (%) Offenses (%) Targets (%) Offenses (%) Targets (%) Offenses (%) Targets (%)
Offenses (%) One threat 100 100 75 53 90 82 50 22 75 50 Two threats 0 0 17 27 10 18 25 22 0 0 Three
threats 0 0 8 20 0 0 0 0 25 50 4 OR MORE 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 56 0 0 Barrera 10 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers
Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21 Hot spot patterns Because of the environmental backcloth, bomb
threats and reports of suspicious items may cluster in space. This argument was tested using the
Nearest Neighbor Index (NNI; a CrimeStat routine). The output of the analysis is an NNI value. Lesser
than 1 values denote spatial clustering. Whereas, greater than 1 values mean random distribution.
Indeed, the events – All Bomb Threats and Reports combined, All Threats, and All Reports – were
clustered to some extent (Figure 2). When all threats and reports were combined, the clustering reached
up to the 91st nearest neighbor. When analyzed independently, however, the degree of clustering was
much smaller than when the events were combined. Threats clustered up to the 73rd nearest neighbor;
reports, up to the 16th nearest neighbor. This discrepancy is partly because of attenuation of the sample
sizes of the later analyses. Since the events clustered, the next step was to depict their spatial patterns
through Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) using CrimeStat. The KDE is a technique that interpolates points
and estimates relative event occurrence across space. Research reveals that KDE outperforms other
crime hot-spotting techniques in predicting future crime events using past events (Chainey et al, 2008).
With this technique, it is possible to map hot spots of bomb threats and reports of suspicious items
across the country with some degree of precision in predicting future events. Figures 3–5 show the KDE
maps of threats and reports. Following the suggestion of Chainey (2005) and Williamson et al (1999),
these maps were produced using quartic kernel density estimation, and bandwidths were determined
using K-Orders of Nearest Neighbor Index to reduce arbitrariness in selecting bandwidths. Figure 3
shows the KDE map of All Threats & Reports. As seen, the events clustered disproportionately in the
highly urbanized areas in the country, particularly in Metro Manila or the NCR; and few incidents
scattered in the southern parts of the country. Similar patterns emerged when threats and reports were
analyzed independently as shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55
61 67 73 79 85 91 97 Nearest Neighbor Index Order of Nearest Neighbor Index All Threats & Reports
Threats only Reports only Figure 2: K-order nearest neighbor indices of bomb threats and reports of
suspicious items in the Philippines, January 2010–April 2014. Bomb threats and reports of suspicious
items in the Philippines © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21 11 The
preceding maps show the clustering of threats and reports in the Metro Manila (NCR) area. But since it
would be interesting to see if there were also local spatial clusters of these events in such area, then,
threats and reports in Metro Manila were subjected to spatial analysis. Figure 6 presents the k-order
nearest neighbor indices of the events. Spatial clustering was present when all NCR threats and reports
were combined and when only threats were analyzed. Since reports were scattered randomly, thus, no
map was produced for these events. Figures 7 and 8 show the hot spot maps of All Bomb Threats and
Reports combined, and All Figure 3: Hot spot map of all bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in
the Philippines, January 2010–April 2014. Incident points=126; Measurement type= Direct; Type of
calculation= Absolute densities, Bandwidth= K-Order of 13 (78 172 m), Classification scheme= Natural
breaks (Jenks). Figure 4: Hot spot map of bomb threats in the Philippines, January 2010–April 2014.
Incident points= 102; Measurement type= Direct; Type of calculation= Absolute densities, Bandwidth =
K-Order of 9 (76 068 m), Classification scheme= Natural breaks (Jenks). Barrera 12 © 2015 Macmillan
Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21 Threats in Metro Manila. The maps indicate that bomb
threats and reports concentrated at a triad of cities: Quezon City on the northeast, Pasay City on the
south, and Manila City on the west. As can be seen, threats and reports at Metro Manila have local
spatial patterns. Temporal patterns Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items may cluster in time as
well. Thus, the author produced temporal maps for these events. These maps comprise temporal heat
maps for day Figure 5: Hot spot map of reports of suspicious in the Philippines, January 2010–April 2014.
Incident points=24; Measurement type= Direct; Type of calculation= Absolute densities, Bandwidth= K-
Order of 2 (59 913 m), Classification scheme= Natural breaks (Jenks). 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1 4 7 10 13 16 19
22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 Nearest Neighbor Index Order of Nearest Neighbor
Index NCR Threats & Reports NCR Threats NCR Reports Figure 6: K-Order nearest neighbor indices of
bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in Metro Manila, January 2010–April 2014. Bomb threats
and reports of suspicious items in the Philippines © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security
Journal 1–21 13 and hour clustering. Figure 9 presents the heat maps of All Bomb Threats and Reports,
Threats only, and Reports of Suspicious Items only. These maps were created using Excel’s Pivot Table
and Conditional Formatting tools. However, the values used to produce these Figure 7: Hot spot map of
all bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in Metro Manila, Philippines, January 2010–April 2014.
Incident points=72; Measurement type= Direct; Type of calculation= Absolute densities, Bandwidth = K-
Order of 10 (3557 m), Classification scheme= natural breaks (Jenks). Figure 8: Hot spot map of all bomb
threats in Metro Manila, Philippines, January 2010–April 2014. Incident points=56; Measurement type=
Direct; Type of calculation= Absolute densities, Bandwidth = K-Order of 7 (3403 m), Classification
scheme=natural breaks (Jenks). Barrera 14 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal
1–21 heat maps were incomplete because the data sources had incomplete details despite several
attempts to collect all news reports pertaining to individual events. Only 75 per cent of All Threats &
Reports, 79 per cent of Threats, and 58 per cent of Reports had time details. Nevertheless, the heat
maps support earlier arguments that bomb threats and reports of suspicious items are patterned in
time. The heat maps in Figure 9 display time clusters of bomb threats and reports of suspicious items.
When combined, most threats and reports clustered during weekdays (from Monday to Friday), and
rarely occurred during weekends (Saturday and Sunday). As expected, they clustered during daytime,
specifically during normal office hours (8pm–5 pm) in most of the institutions in the country. One can
see similar temporal patterns from the map of Threats; that is, offenders frequently perpetrated bomb
threats during weekdays at daytime. Although its number was small, reports of suspicious items also
depicted temporal patterns. Even though reports are somewhat scattered across all the days in a week,
yet they cluster on certain daytime hours. All Threats and Reports Threats only Reports only Hour Mon
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Figure 9: Temporal heat maps of All Threats & Reports,
Threats only, and Reports only in the Philippines, January 2010–April 2014. Black color denotes high
values; white, low. Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items in the Philippines © 2015 Macmillan
Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21.

Discussion

Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items received minimal attention from researchers, and past
researches on bomb threats focused primarily on individuals. Hinged on the environmental criminology
perspective, this study argued that these events were non-random in space and time in the Philippines.
Indeed, threats and reports are disproportionately clustered across targets, space, and time. Previous
research (that is, US Department of Justice, 2001; Häkkänen, 2006; Zaitsu, 2010) in other countries
indicates that most of the threatened targets were commercial entities (banks, businesses, restaurants)
and transportation buildings (airports). These threats were communicated through telephones. Findings
in the current study, however, provide a stark contrast to these findings. Most target locations in the
Philippines were government offices, educational and commercial buildings. Specifically, the top five
targets were universities and colleges, high schools, courthouses, city halls and airports. Offenders
communicated these threats through text messages. Probably, most offenders in the Philippines are
what Zaitsu (2010) terms as ‘expressive/affective’ and ‘expressive/cognitive’. These are offenders with
motives of resentment and diversion, or with motives to cause chaos. These kind of offenders in Japan
frequently targeted administration buildings, schools, and railways. Meanwhile, looking at the number
of telephone lines and mobile cellular subscriptions by county, findings of previous research and the
current study suggest that available modes of communication somewhat affected the offenders mode
of communicating their threat. For instance, the Philippines had much lower number of telephone lines
per 100 people (M = 4, 2010–2013) than Finland (M = 52, 2001–2003), Japan (M =47, 1989–2009), and
the United States (N= 42, 2001; The World Bank, 2014a).3 Conversely, the Philippines had higher
number of mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people (M =100, 2010–2013) than Finland (M = 86,
2001–2003), Japan (M =42, 1989–2009), and the United States (N= 45, 2001; The World Bank, 2014b).
Thus, most offenders in the Philippines communicated threats through text messages using mobile
cellular phones; in other countries, through telephone. Moreover, analysis revealed repeat patterns of
bomb threats. That is, those previously victimized run the risk of becoming a victim again. This pattern
further reveals that few targets attracted more threats. Top targets repeatedly threatened were
airports, city halls, and court houses. Specifically, one airport and one city hall experienced more serious
repeats (3 or more). These findings support the argument that the victimization predicts re-victimization
(Pease, 1998; Farrell and Pease, 2008; Pease, 2008), and therefore suggest, that control of threats
should focus on high-risk targets. The meta-analysis of Grove et al (2012) indicates that repeat
victimization can be prevented, especially using situational crime prevention. However, results also
show that higher educational institutions experienced no repeats. Probably, the concept of ‘virtual
repeats’ by Pease (1998) can explain this finding. Repeat victimization does not only happen to the same
target but may also occur to similar targets because of similar prospects for offenders – same modus
operandi, risk, and rewards (Farrell and Pease, 2008; Pease, 2008). Future research could test this
hypothesis using nearrepeat victimization analysis on data sufficient for such analysis. Bomb threats
might have a contagion effect, similar to other events such as shootings (Ratcliffe and Rengert, 2008),
and terrorist attacks (Townsley et al, 2008). Alert observers, on the other hand, usually found suspicious
items in transport buildings, commercial buildings, and government buildings. Specifically, the top
locations were buses, Barrera 16 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21
malls, airports, transport stations and hotels. Probably, because most of these places are natural
locations for people to leave bags, luggage, or boxes. In addition, the circumstances that may lead
someone to report an unattended item as suspicious are present in these locations. These
circumstances include unattended item found in or near crowded places and important facilities
(Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2012), and the fact that bombers in the Philippines frequently targeted
transport buildings, vehicles, and places where lots of people congregate (Human Rights Watch, 2007;
Philippine National Police, n.d.; Relatorres et al, 2013). Current findings on the frequently threatened
targets and the usual locations of suspicious items support the argument that the environmental
backcloth determined the spatial distribution of these events. These events likely occur at what
Brantingham and Brantingham (2008) call as crime generators where lots of people congregate. The
study argued earlier that these events were non-random in space and time, and depict spatial and
temporal clusters. Indeed, bomb threats and reports of suspicious items had spatial and temporal
patterns. These events were disproportionately concentrated in few locations across the country and at
specific times. Although some events scattered across the country, most threats and reports occurred in
the highly urbanized areas (that is, Metro Manila) of the country. Even in Metro Manila, spatial patterns
still emerged. Most threats and reports concentrated at the triad of Manila City, Quezon City, and Pasay
City. Temporally, most threats concentrated during weekdays (Monday–Friday) at daytime, specifically
during normal office hours (8am5 pm). This pattern is different from that of Finland, where threats
frequently occurred during weekends at nighttime (Häkkänen, 2006), but similar with that of Japan
(Zaitsu, 2010). The differences in the type of usual targets may account for this inconsistency. In Finland,
most targets were restaurants and shopping centers that could be open during weekends at nighttime.
On the other hand, in Japan and the Philippines, most targets were schools, government buildings, and
banks which have normal office hours during weekdays at daytime. Rational choice perspective (Cornish
and Clarke, 2008), routine activity approach (Cohen and Felson, 1979; Felson, 2008), and crime pattern
theory (Brantingham and Brantingham, 2008) may help in understanding these spatial and temporal
patterns. According to these theories, crime breeds in both criminal and non-criminal activities, and
occurs when a rational and motivated offender encounters a suitable target in the absence of a capable
guardian. Offenders and victims have routine activities; and places and times where most of these
activities converge would be the likely hot spots of crime. Thus, bomb threats and reports concentrate
at places and times where there is mass convergence of individuals, like government buildings and
educational institutions at daytime during weekdays in the country. Drawing policy implications based
on the current findings is not difficult. As Eck (2005) posits, large hot spot areas, like the city of Manila,
may benefit from community partnerships with police forces in dealing with bomb threats. Police forces
can convince institutions frequently targeted by threats to be proactive rather than most of the time be
reactive to such events with the only known recourse of evacuation. The partnerships can adopt the
perspective of the problem-oriented policing (POP) in controlling spates of bomb threats. POP views
crime as a symptom of deeper problems, and these problems should be addressed first, thereby
decreasing crime occurrences (Goldstein, 1979; Scott et al, 2008). An initial attempt to subject bomb
threats to POP can be found in the work of Newman (2011). Bomb threats and reports of suspicious
items in the Philippines © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 0955-1662 Security Journal 1–21 17 Higgins
(2004) emphasizes two sets of preparation for threats: formulating bomb threat response plan and
target hardening. These preparations can decrease the probability of harm should a threat occurs and
can provide a sense of security for the occupants. Considering that all threats in the country were
hoaxes, authorities may reconsider their policy of immediate evacuation. Instead, they can learn from
the preferred response of Higgins (2004) which is to educate how and to involve all occupants in the
building in searching for suspicious objects because they are the ones who are in the best position to
identify unusual objects in their immediate vicinity. If a suspicious package is found, an immediate
evacuation is warranted. This response is less disruptive; and if the threat is a hoax, the response can
reduce the rewards of the ill-intentioned prankster, which is one of the techniques in situational crime
prevention (Cornish and Clarke, 2003; Clarke, 2008). Moreover, an anonymous reviewer suggested that
the study could provide an ‘early warning system or risk analysis’ for bombings in the Philippines. He
posited that bomb threats ‘flag locations of interest,’ while reports of suspicious items ‘flag locations
which may have a real security weakness.’ For instance, people usually found suspicious items at
locations where persons naturally leave bags or boxes without raising immediate concern. And bomb
threat targets do not necessarily manifest security lapse but rather locations of choice by offenders.
Thus, tight security in these places must be maintained at all times to discourage repeat threats.
Moreover, places with suspicious items denote poor security management since people may just leave
any item in the area. In these places, security must be tightened as well. With these to consider,
authorities concerned must, therefore, immediately address these issues before an actual explosive is
planted, and an explosion occurs. This study, however, has some limitations. The current study has
retrieved data on bomb threats and reports of suspicious items from online media outlets.
Consequently, only those events that generated much attention from the people and the media are
reported and included. It should be noted that bomb threats against a single person is absent in the
current data set. Another limitation could be the attributes of the news items of each incident as
presented by the journalists covering the events. Although the data retrieved were reported by
journalists as complete and accurate, the researcher still puts reservations on subjectivity. Finally, since
the reports were not designed for future analysis, details like the specific hour the event happened and
the like, could not be ascertained despite the effort of going through other online reports pertaining to
the same event. Nevertheless, it is clear from the results that spatial and temporal patterns of the
events exist.

Conclusion

Bomb threats and reports of suspicious items are non-random events. Spatial and temporal analysis
revealed that these events concentrated in specific locations and times. Specifically, the events
clustered at the highly urbanized areas of the Philippines during the times when most people
congregate; that is, during weekdays at daytime in the country. These findings provide evidence of the
feasibility of using the environmental criminology perspective in the explanation and analysis of bomb
threats and reports of suspicious items that could, in turn, lead to innovative prevention and control
strategies. Additionally, the current study offers a significant contribution to the literature on bomb
threats that primarily focuses on offender characteristics and ignores the spatial and temporal
dimensions of these rare events.

Acknowledgements

The author acknowledges the assistance of Prof. Martin Gill and the helpful comments of the two
anonymous reviewers of this journal. He also thanks Prof. Rhodora Cleope for reading and editing the
earlier drafts of this article. Notes 1 This figure was calculated using US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI
Inflation Calculator, http://www.bls.gov/data/ inflation_calculator.htm, accessed on 26 November 2014.
2 Later, this study uses ‘reports of suspicious items’ and ‘reports’ interchangeably. 3 The data on the
number of telephone lines per 100 people (and also on the number of mobile cellular subscriptions)
correspond to the year a study was conducted or the period of the data analyzed. For instance, Zaitsu
(2010) analyzed police data from 1989 to 2009; thus, the number of telephone lines in that period were
averaged per year. However, US Department of Justice (2001) does not indicate the coverage of their
study; thus, 2001 (the date of publication) was used.

References

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International Journal of Risk, Security and Crime Prevention 3(4): 269–279. Ateneo de Manila University.
(2014, February 12) Fr. Jett’s memo on the bomb threat. from http://www.admu.edu .ph/news/fr-jetts-
memo-bomb-threat, accessed 29 April 2014. Banlaoi, R. (2011, February 5) Makati city bus bombing:
Which group could have done it? from http:// rommelbanlaoi.wordpress.com/2011/02/05/makati-city-
bus-bombing-which-group-could-have-done-it/, accessed 8 October 2014. Bowman, D.H. (2004) Bomb
threats taking toll. Education Week 24(1): 1–22. Brantingham, P. and Brantingham, P. (2008) Crime
pattern theory. In: R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle (eds.) Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis.
Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing. Chainey, S. (2005) Methods and techniques for understanding
crime hot spots. In: J. Eck, S. Chainey, J. Cameron, M. Leitner and R. Wilson (eds.) (2005), Mapping
Crime: Understanding Hot Spots. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs,
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Uhlig, S. (2008) The utility of hotspot mapping for predicting spatial patterns of crime. Security Journal
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Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing. Cohen, L. and
Felson, M. (1979) Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American
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criminal decisions: A reply to Wortley’s critique of situational crime prevention. In: M. Smith and D.
Cornish (eds.) Crime Prevention Studies. Vol. 16. Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press. Cornish, D. and
Clarke, R. (2008) The rational choice perspective. In: R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle (eds.) Environmental
Criminology and Crime Analysis. Portland, Oregon: Willan Publishing. Eck, J. (2005) Crime hot spots:
What they are, why we have them, and how to map them. In: J. Eck, S. Chainey, J. Cameron, M. Leitner,
and Wilson, R. (eds.) Mapping Crime: Understanding Hot Spots. Washington, DC: US
 PROPOSED INSTITUTIONAL SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT FOR LYCEUM OF THE PHILIPPINES
UNIVERSITY-LAGUNA
Aira Mae G. Pamplona, Sharmaine M. Villanueva, Sharmaine Perez, and Enrico C. Garcia Lyceum of the
Philippines University – Laguna

ABSTRACT

The research intended to propose an institutional solid wastes management based on the identified
solid waste generation and perceived solid waste management practices indicator. The study is a
descriptivequantitative analysis on perception of employees on solid waste management practices
indicator. The monthly projection of solid waste generation was based on the actual estimates of solid
waste volume the researchers gathered. Frequency and percentages were used in presenting the
representative employees obtained from the sample size computation using G-power. Weighted mean
was used to quantify the perception of the employees on the solid waste management practices
indicator. Results show that Lyceum of the Philippines-University Laguna (LPU-Laguna) has a total of 26
collecting containers on a daily basis. PHL building has the highest solid waste generation comprising of
30.73 percent of total solid waste generated by the campus. High-value solid wastes were identified and
these include water bottles, soda bottles, other PET bottles and aluminum cans. Percieved solid waste
management practices has an overall weighted mean of 3.30 with a verbal interpretation of agree. The
proposed institutional solid waste management will start with the improvement of solid wastes
collection. Providing storage area for collection of solid wastes was a necessity. Collection of solid
wastes will be classified as for transport and transfer and as for processing and recovery before the final
disposal. Study recommended that color coding bins may be provided for proper segration of solid
wastes and plans on the processing and recovery methods of highvalue solid wastes since the study
found out a huge daily collection of these solid wastes. The study firther recommended the institution to
reimplement the proposed institutional solid waste management and conduct survey to record
improvements on the solid waste management practices. Keywords: Institutional solid waste
management, solid waste generation, high-value solid wastes, soli wastes manangement practices

INTRODUCTION

Solid waste, in any form, is a problem that must be properly managed. Every one of us knows that
garbage is harmful, so we need to dispose our garbage properly (Smythe et.al, 2010). Proper waste
disposal is of great importance to both rural and urban areas. Not doing this may bring us to danger in
many ways and surely everybody knows this. Time and again, people are always being educated about
the importance of waste but then this process should not stop because every now and then, people
forget. Moerressey (2003) mentioned that there are many ways on how people can minimize the waste.
One is through recycling. When you recycle at an earlier time, this will be very helpful. Aside from
lessening your work load, you will also be earning. Most countries in the world experience challenges in
managing waste. The challenges range from reducing generation of waste, separation, change of habits,
collection, transport, treatment, reuse and disposal of the waste (Dong and Soon, 2010). The alarming
news about recycling is about the effects of improper waste disposal impacting the environment and the
lives of people. Recycling does not mean that you have to do it yourself. There are many recycling
centers today where you can take the wastes that you produce in your home and business. Some
recycling centers even pay you for it by weight or sometimes by the type of waste materials that you
take them. Waste disposal is now the main problem being faced by the world today. In third world
countries, problems are more evident. The Philippines, for instance, experienced floods that took the
lives of many Filipinos. One of the causes of this flooding is the improper waste disposal. Solid waste
should be managed through a number of activities— waste prevention, recycling, composting,
controlled burning, or land filling. Using a combination of these activities together in a way that best
protects your community and the local environment is referred to as integrated solid waste
management (Lohri et.al, 2013). Educational institutions, on the other hand, must practice solid wastes
management, since they are responsible in moulding minds of the future generation. Recycling and
composting activities, if organized properly by the local government, can generate many environmental
and economic benefits. For example, it can create jobs and income, supply valuable raw materials to
industry, produce soil-enhancing compost for agriculture, reduce the need to site or build more landfills
and combustors, and prevent greenhouse gas emissions. An organized approach to recycling and
composting can also LPU-Laguna Journal of Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 5 No.1 October 2016 Special
Edition Institutional Social Responsibility 51 Research and Statistics Center LPU-Laguna have many
benefits for your community. Involving scavengers or waste pickers in formal recycling activities can
empower them, increase their income and reputation, and improve their quality of life, health, and
safety (Hayal et.al, 2014) The solid wastes management steps are storage at source, separation, on-site
storage, collection, transportation, treatment, reuse, recycling, and ultimate disposal. The problems and
constraints of the solid wastes management system are also identified to find a sustainable
management concept. In solving this emerging socio environmental issue and the initiatives taken by
some non-government organizations and community based organizations. (Ahsan et al., 2014) The
possibilities and solutions for a sustainable municipal solid waste management in the community aims
to formulate an action plan to start reaching for a sustainable development in the waste sector, with
citizen participation. Specific research questions were to find requests and ideas from the community
members (Mofide et.al, 2008). Anupam (2010) identified that municipal solid waste management is one
of the most serious and most neglected areas of urban development which creates environmental
hazards confronting municipalities. Necessary and beneficial relationship drawn among development
factors revealed the collaborative web model for sustainable municipal solid waste management.
Human activities generate waste and the amounts tend to increase as the demand for quality of life
increases. The concept of zero emissions can be applied successfully with today’s technical possibilities
in the agrobased processing industry. Further on, solutions for solid waste management will be
reviewed in the discussions of sustainable waste management. (Swati, 2009). Foday et.al (2014) found
that solid waste generation and physical composition were two important factors in designing the cost
effectiveness and environmentally compatible solid waste management system in Freetown given the
fact that waste management authority’s activities were very unsatisfactory. The Environmental
Sanitation Policy makes the management of municipal solid waste the responsibility of local authorities,
specifically, the waste management and environmental health departments, and the private sector. The
high and middle income groups favour the private sector while the low-income areas favour the waste
management department. Additionally, while the local authorities claim higher community involvement
in waste management, the respondents indicate very low involvement. (Simon, 2001). This study will
give an assurance that learning the methods of solid waste management is transferable and contributes
to spread the discipline of solid waste management practices in the community. LPU-Laguna Journal of
Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 5 No.1 October 2016 Special Edition Institutional Social Responsibility 52
Research and Statistics Center LPU-Laguna Figure 1. Conceptual Framework The conceptual framework
as shown in Figure 1 links the estimated solid waste generation and perception of respondents on the
solid waste management practices indicator to the proposed institutional solid waste management. An
identified estimated solid waste generation of LPU campus can be a reat key component in the
successful institutional solid waste management. Objectives of the Study The study aims to provide an
estimated solid waste generation of Lyceum of the Philippines University - Laguna, quantify the
perception of the employees’ in the solid waste management practices indicator and propose an
institutional solid waste management.

METHODOLOGY

The study is a descriptive research and used quantitative analysis in describing the perception of
employees in the solid waste management practices indicator. The monthly projection of solid waste
generation was based on the actual estimates of solid waste volume gathered by the researchers. The
proposed institional solid waste management was developed based on the characteristics of existing
solid waste management practices inside LPU campus. Frequency and percentages were used in
presenting the representative employees obtained from the sample size LPU-Laguna Journal of
Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 5 No.1 October 2016 Special Edition Institutional Social Responsibility 53
Research and Statistics Center LPU-Laguna computation using G-power. Weighted mean was used to
quantify the perception of the employees on the solid waste management practices.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Solid waste generation of LPU-Laguna LPU-Laguna is composed of three main buildings with detached
gym and huge entrance pavilion. It also has spacious parking lots and soccer field. The maintenance
team is collecting all solid waste generated by all classrooms, offices, and school vicinities. They are
using a collecting container and this was the basis used by the researcher to estimate the solid waste
generation of the campus. Reseacher spent three consecutive days to estimate the average daily
frequency of solid wastes collection. The data gathered were also the basis for the weekly and monthly
projection of solid waste generation. Table 1 below shows the frequency of solid waste generation of
Lyceum of the Philippines University-Laguna. Table 1. Frequency of Solid Waste Generation (Per
Collecting Container) LPU-L Building Frequency of Solid Waste Generation (Per Collecting Container) %
Daily Weekly Monthly Culinary Bldg. 5 30 130 19.25 JPL Bldg. 6 36 156 23.09 PHL Bldg. 8 48 208 30.73
Gym 4 24 104 15.38 Campus Entrance 3 18 78 11.55 Total 26 132 776 100 Among the area of the
campus, PHL building has the highest solid waste generated with an average of eight collecting
containers daily, giving a projections of 48 for weekly and 208 for monthly containers, respectively. PHL
building is housing the Campus Cafeteria, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Engineering, and
College of Allied Medicine Offices. Palestra Consortio Office, Guidance and Testing Center, and the
Graduate School. The Capital Market and the Library are also found in the building, as well as some
classrooms and laboratories. The high solid waste generated can be LPU-Laguna Journal of
Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 5 No.1 October 2016 Special Edition Institutional Social Responsibility 54
Research and Statistics Center LPU-Laguna attributed to the presence of the cafeteria which is
frequently visited by students, faculty, and staff. PHL building was the highest solid wastes contributor
with a 30.73% of total solid waste generation of LPU-Laguna. Most of the solid wastes generated in the
three-day collection of data were trashes. Plastic bottles, plastic wrappers, plastic cups, and other PET
plastics are those considered trashes (Fooday, 2014) and mostly present on the collecting bins of the
maintenance team. Other solid wastes collected were classified as rubbishes, which include tin cans,
scrap papers, paper cups, paper plates and boxes. Among the rubbishes, only the tin cans can be recycle
and reuse. Garbages such as left over foods, wood sticks and plant wastes were minimized since the
cafeteria distributed the left overs to some employees as pet foods or mixing agent for hog feeds. Plant
wastes, such as dry leaves and twigs were place at the backyard and letting it decomposed. In addition
to the identified solid wastes, researcher also found out that theres a lot of high-value solid wastes that
have been left behind and no continuos plan for sustaining its use. Zurbrugga 2012, classified high-value
solid wastes as treasure and will be use as additional income generating by a certain institution. Table 2
below shows the identified high-value solid waste generation of LPU and its average daily collection.
Table 2. High-Value Solid Waste Generation of Lyceum of the Philippines University-Laguna High-Value
Solid Wastes Average Daily Collection (per piece) Water Bottels 216 Soda Bottles 176 Other PET Bottles
159 Aluminum Cans 112 Saeeda et.al. (2011) termed high-value solid wastes because of its potential
multiple recycling property that converts into amazing new things. PET bottles were recycled and used
as the raw materials in making plastics table, chairs, and other products made-up of mixed recycled
molded plastics. Soda bottels and water bottles on the hand can be used as raw materials in making
making floorings of houses and even can mould boats out of it. Smyth et.al. 2010 find a better way on
how a certain institution will help the community by donating the collected aluminum cans, soda
container, in the charity for person with disability (PWD). The lid of the can was made of a stronger alloy
and used as materials in making wheelchair. Educational institutions like Lyceum of the Philippines
UniversityLaguna are priveleged because there are many possible means to maximize solid wastes
management. Students are coming to learn new discipline that can be transferred to the next
generation. Integrating solid waste LPU-Laguna Journal of Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 5 No.1
October 2016 Special Edition Institutional Social Responsibility 55 Research and Statistics Center LPU-
Laguna management in the curriculum or syllabi of social and natural sciences will be a great idea in
restoring solid waste management practices.Hayal et.al. (2014) mentioned in their study that the
involvement of students in the implementation of solid waste management will be a great idea, since
the curriculum or the syllabus deliver lessons on solid waste management. In Lyceum of the Philippines
University-Laguna some organizations, headed by the Institutional Social Responsibily Office, have
projects linking to solid waste management. The collection of water bottles, for example, were given to
GMA 7 as part of their environmental sustainability project. The NSTP program headed by the College of
Arts and Sciences conducted a series of barangay clean-up and they observed waste segration. Once the
solid waste management becomes a practice in the institution, it will be a great contribution to improve
the society awareness of solid waste management (Schultz et. al., 2010) Employees’ perception on the
solid waste management practices The cooperation of employees’ in the implementation of solid wastes
management was necessary to improve the increasing number of solid waste generation in the campus.
A modified survey questionnaire by Smyth et.al, 2010, was used to quantify employees’ perception on
the solid waste practices of the campus. Table 3. Perceived Solid Wastes Management Practices of
Lyceum of the Philippines University-Laguna Survey Questionnaire Result Weighted Mean Valid
Interpretation 1. Reimlemention of solid waste management in the campus. 3.3 Agree 2. Prohibit the
burning of solid waste in Lyceum vicinity. 2.8 Agree 3. Interaction to the municipality of Calamba about
the collection of solid waste of PU – L. 2.9 Agree 4. Scheduled arrangement of collection of solid wastes
arranged by the municipality of Calamba. 3.1 Agree 5. Institution has provided a profitable solid wastes
generation program and uses the funds as incentives for maintenance team. 3.7 Strongly Agree LPU-
Laguna Journal of Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 5 No.1 October 2016 Special Edition Institutional Social
Responsibility 56 Research and Statistics Center LPU-Laguna Smyth et.al. 2010 Table 3 shows that the
overall perception of the employees’ in the solid wastes management practices were 3.30 with a verabal
interpretation of agree. Reimplementation of solid waste management is necessary, since there is no
present measures that solid waste manangemant are being practice. A 2.8 weighted mean was obtained
pertaining to the prohibition of burning of solid wastes in the Lyceum vicinity. The maintenance team
conducted burning of dry leaves and twigs two times a week to avoid over filed up of garbage collected.
Since there was a space for solid wastes of LPU-Laguna, the maintenance team relied on the capacity of
the dump site. Although it was identified that the increasing volume of wastes were collected.
Interaction of the municipality of Calamba as well as setting of schedule of solid wastes collection must
be arranged to solve the problem of continuous filling up of solid wastes in the land fill space provided
located at the back of LPU campus. Planning profitable solid wastes is also a solution in minimizing solid
wastes. Funds collected must be given as incentives to the maintenance team for their hard work and
first hand persons in the implementation of the institutional solid waste management. It also important
to alot some funds for solid waste awareness campaign. If the management were to support the
institional solid waste management, they are suppose to allocate some budget for the realiaton of the
plan. Strict implementation of segration for example, the needs for providing of color coding bins for
solid wastes segration and a storage area of high-value solid waste. Solid waste management can be
integrated in the NSTP program as well as in social and natural science. All the success of the Institional
Solid Wastes Management 6. Create active organization to monitor solid waste management system in
LPULaguna. 3.3 Agree 7. Make allocation of funds to build its own waste storage in LPU – L to easily haul
solid wastes. 3.4 Agree 8. Emphasize waste reduction and re-use in all Offices and classrooms. 3.4 Agree
9. Implement a program for the awareness of solid waste disposal for the students. 3.0 Agree 10. Strict
implementation of the proper segregation of waste in LPU- Laguna. 3.4 Agree Total 3.3 Agree LPU-
Laguna Journal of Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 5 No.1 October 2016 Special Edition Institutional Social
Responsibility 57 Research and Statistics Center LPU-Laguna starts with the cooperation and
sustainability on the program. Not only the communities will benefited but also the world that we live in
(Smyth et.al., 2010) Proposed Institutional Solid Waste Management Based on the solid wastes
generation data and the perceived solid waste management practices of the employees’ , the
researchers drawn a proposed institutional solid waste management flowchart (Figure 2). It will suggest
that the waste generation will be collected by the maintenance team three to four times daily,
depending on the amount of solid wastes generated by each offices or classroom. Color coding bins
must be installed for practicing solid waste segregation, collection can be easier and much time and
energy can be saved. Providing storage area for collected solid waste was necessary to avoid filling up of
the temporary land fill provided by the school which was located at the back of the campus. Collection
of solid wastes will become organized since it is already segragated and packed. Solid wastes for transfer
and transport maybe collected by the municipal or baranggay solid waste council while the high-value
solid waste were process for recovery and other means of soild wates reusing and recyling technique.
Final disposal of the campus solid wastes will become organized and will lead to sustainable solid waste
management practices. Figure 2. Proposed institional solid waste management flowchart LPU-Laguna
Journal of Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 5 No.1 October 2016 Special Edition Institutional Social
Responsibility 58 Research and Statistics Center LPU-Laguna As an educational institution promoting
solid wastes management will be essential part in moulding students’ mind to make this as a practice.
The simple flowchart of the proposed solid wastes mangement that was presented is the key
components in establising an environment friendly institution primarily of responsibility taking good
care of our own solid wastes. Nepomucena, 2002 identified solid wastes mangement as simply the
institutional social responsibility practices that must be one of the requirements in giving annual
operation permit. Ferria et.al., 2015 also agree that each agencies even our own household must start
doing a solid waste management for it is the responsibility of the human race to protect our home for
better future of our generation. This is in relation to the issue of increasing carbon printing that
continously occuring today.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The solid waste generation of the Lyceum of the PhilippinesUniversity Laguna has a total of 26
collecting containers on a daily basis. The projected 132 weekly and 776 monthly collecting containers
were identified. Among Lyceum of the Philippines-University campus, PHL building has the highest solid
waste generation comprising 30.73 percent of total solid waste generated by the campus. High-value
solid wastes were identified and it was includes water bottles, soda bottles, other PET bottles and
aluminum cans. Percieved solid waste management practices has an overall weighted mean of 3.30 with
a verbal interpretation of agree were quantified. The proposed institutional solid waste management
will be started in the improvement of solid wastes collection. Providing storage area for collection of
solid wastes was necessarity. Collection of solid wastes will be classify as for transport and transfer and
as for processing and recovery before the final disposal. It was recommended that color coding bins will
be provided for proper segration of solid wastes. Make a great plans on the processing and recovery
methods of high-value solid wastes since the study found out a huge daily collection of these solid
wastes. Reimplement the proposed institutional solid waste management and conduct survey to record
improvements on the solid waste management practices.

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Mengiseny E., 2005, Assessment of industrial solid waste management and resource recovery practices
in Tanzania Morrissey, AJ. Browne, J. 2003, Waste management models and their application to
sustainable waste management, Dublin City University, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland, CIMRU, National
University of Ireland, Galway, Ireland Mufeed, Sharholya. Kafeel, Ahmada. Gauhar, Mahmooda. R. 2007,
Municipal solid waste management in Indian Cities – A review, a Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia
Millia Islamia (Central University), Jamia Nagar, New Delhi-110025, India Mufide, Banar. Zerrin, Cokaygil.
Aysun, Ozkan. 2008, Life cycle assessment of solid waste management options for Eskisehir, Turkey
 Over Population: The Culprit of an Economic Tragedy in the National Capital Region (NCR) Metro
Manila, Philippines

Danilo E. Tiamzon, Ma. Aleli M. Mutuc, Antonio S. Valdez, University of Marikina, Philippines.

Abstract

The dearth of industries, employment opportunities and means to live by in the provinces of the
Philippines, led to the saturation of people in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines. People from
provinces migrate to different places in the NCR to find better life in the cities where it is considered an
area of “greener pasture.” These people have taken all the risk in exchange for landing in jobs that may
pay handsomely; a lot better than in the province. The National Capital Region is composed of several
cities and municipalities: Manila, Quezon City, Makati, Pasay, Pasig, Marikina, Caloocan, Valenzuela,
Taguig and Muntinglupa. These are the locations of more reputable banks, communications industry,
food manufacturing, factories, service businesses and business process outsourcing, to mention a few of
employment opportunities located within a 50 kilometer radius. While there isn’t much of such
employment in the provinces of the North and South Philippines, people come in hordes to reach NCR
and try their luck. It has now become burdensome for NCR to accommodate all the people coming; NCR
is 9,932,560 in 2010 and now 11,547,959 as of 2015 and ever increasing at an average rate of 2.10% per
annum (Lourdes Homecillo, 2015). Many who came have failed to land in jobs but insisted to hang-on
with the belief that a better chance may still come. Some have resorted to other means to live by; legal
or illegal. To date, there are about 1.74 million illegal settlers or what we term in Manila as squatters.
Adding to such woe, are the number of drug offenders, big and petty crimes, human trafficking and for
which have reached to millions (Philippine National Police Statistics, 2010). The research desires to
present the injurious effect of overpopulation to an economy; using as basis, the opinion of respondents
from NCR. The proponents went to all the cities and municipalities of the National Capital region and
distributed survey forms to different offices, factories, vendors, call center employees and
grocery/supermarket sales people. The manner of getting data was through random sampling. The
questionnaires dwelt on the perceived and felt influence on the burdening consequence of
overpopulation in the city or municipality that they belong; city services on health and sanitation,
education, garbage disposal, water and electrical supply, and peace and order.Generalized results on the
survey when interpreted indicated as opinion by the respondents, that areas which are thickly
populated can engender ailments, diseases can become easily transferrable to create in certain
occasions some sort of plague. People scatter themselves in the streets irresponsibly littering can add to
more destructive possibilities.Education has been a perennial constraint as a general opinion by the
respondents in the study. People who live in the squatter colonies could not afford education, or if they
can, is unable to live by on pocket money and transportation. Most children of illegal settlers start
finding employment or source of income at an early age and most are scattered all around selling
different wares or working in odd jobs. Reference to garbage disposal as part of government basic
service, most garbage of the trucks does not proceed to squatter areas. Litters emit foul smell in the
neighborhood and likewise to industries and offices where the area becomes generally filthy; a
deterrent to investments and a disruption to economic growth. Further, the failure to manage the
population reference to the mobilization of traffic can result to great disruption of operations in the
industry as a general effect. Water and electrical supply companies generally have urban plans in the
installation of water supply and electric power. Since the overpopulation created illegal Proceedings of
the Annual Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social
Sciences (AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper
ID: V675 2 www.globalbizresearch.org settlers, most residences do not have water supply and most
have illegal electrical connection; a usual form of energy pillage and loss of revenue. In the book of
Carolyn Kinder, 2015, it was stated that overpopulation can result to poverty. Poverty is a condition of
chronic deprivation and need at the family level. A lack of basic needs results in physical weakness and
poor health. Poor health decreases the ability of the poor to work and put them deeper into poverty.
When there is lack of better life (Economic Analysis) people resort to getting their necessities in
whatever means; legal or illegal and will result to criminality as an opinion by the respondents.
Recommendations by the proponents include control of migration through the elimination of illegal
dwellings and subsequently ejection of illegal settlers in the NCR. Further recommendations will reveal
the endorsement of all bills and laws that has serious affiliation for responsible parenthood including
legal birth control. To the present constraint, it was recommended that government should take the
serious initiative to extend fiscal policies and expand industries to serve as an economic multiplier

Key Words: Overpopulation, Economic Tragedy, Employment Opportunities, Poverty, Crime Rate

Introduction

Gratification from employment is almost and always dependent on the amount that can provide a
better quality of life. Necessarily, it will always point to the fact that earnings are the primordial goal of
such desire. It should suffice to say that people who seek employment can be selective on the kind of
job and the amount of compensation that such job will create. A question is then raised, what should be
an expectation if the jobs desired do not exist in the desired location of work? These individuals will
always find another setting to look for the best career. To provide a clear-cut motive is the failure of
community planning where employment opportunities where concentrated in one or common area for
work. The move to exercise so is reasoned from lesser overhead expense as in transport cost and
mobilization during operations and material sourcing to include delivery to consumers; to be on one
side. The other side is the normal belief that the best recruitment of employees can come from Manila
and suburb areas where schools are adjudged to produce better graduates and therefore better talents.
The rapid growth of the world's population over the past one hundred years results from a difference
between the rate of birth and the rate of death. The human population will increase by 1 billion people
in the next decade. This is like adding the whole population of China to the world's population. The
growth in human population around the world affects all people through its impact on the economy and
environment. The current rate of population growth is now a significant burden to human well-being.
Understanding the factors which affect population growth patterns can help us plan for the future
(UNDP, 2005). The impact to the economy and environment of overpopulation is seemingly ostensible
as we all can observe the difficulties of securing a job, disarrayed surrounding, dysfunctional basic
services and increasing criminality; to mention a few.

Background of the Study

The dearth of industries, employment opportunities and means to live by in the provinces of the
Philippines, directed the saturation of people in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines. People
from provinces migrate to different places in the NCR to find better life in the cities where it is
considered an area of “greener pasture.” These people have taken all the risk in exchange for landing in
jobs that may pay handsomely; a lot better than in the province. The National Capital Region is the
haven for opportunities and is composed of several cities and municipalities: Manila, Quezon City,
Makati, Pasay, Pasig, Marikina, Caloocan, Valenzuela, Taguig and Muntinglupa. These are the locations
of big banks, communications, food manufacturing, factories, service businesses and business process
outsourcing, to mention a few of employment chances located within a 50 kilometer radius. While there
isn’t Proceedings of the Annual Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business, Economics,
Finance & Social Sciences (AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9
August, 2016. Paper ID: V675 4 www.globalbizresearch.org much of such employment in the provinces
of the North and South Philippines, people come in hordes to reach NCR and try their luck. It has now
become burdensome for NCR to accommodate all the people coming; NCR is 9,932,560 in 2010 and now
11,547,959 as of 2015 and ever increasing at an average rate of 2.10% per annum (Lourdes Homecillo,
2015). Many failed to land in jobs but insisted to hang-on with the belief that a better chance may still
come. Some have resorted to other means to live by; legal or illegal. To date, there are about 1.74
million illegal settlers or what we term in Manila as squatters. Adding to such woe, are the number of
drug offenders, big and petty crimes, human trafficking and for which have reached to millions
(Philippine National Police Statistics, 2010). The research desires to present the injurious effect of
overpopulation to an economy; using as basis, the opinion of respondents from NCR. Offensive
comments have cropped-up from a significant number of constituents making the remarks that services
from the city have definitely faltered mentioning among other things that citizens have been left to
suffer the consequences of service failure. The excesses of “Imperial Manila” seem to stink to high
heavens. Residents of Metro Manila generate so much garbage that they are responsible for one-fourth
of the country’s daily output of solid waste, according to the Department of Environment and Natural
Resources (DENR, 2010). More expressively, there are several opportunities and better well-being that
people fail to avail of:

A. Job opportunities for both professional and sub-professional;

B. Best health maintenance for all citizens;

C. Chance to avail of normal enjoyment in malls parks and other public goods;

D. Protection from criminal attempts by desperate people;

E. Opportunity for clean environment;

F. Break for enterprise revenue. It is found to be appropriate that any location should maintain a
manageable proportion of people in order for services to be equitably disseminated and allow people
for a good measure of quality life. The same notion suggests that if a location is in significant saturation,
the chance to earn revenue from business becomes threatened. Most localities

2.1 Statement of the Problem 1. What is the perception of the respondents on the impact of
overpopulation in the National Capital region based on the following: 1.1 Delivery of Basic Services 1.2
Environment 1.3 Employment and Business Opportunities 1.4 Peace and Order 1.5 Traffic &
Transportation Proceedings of the Annual Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business,
Economics, Finance & Social Sciences (AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-
Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper ID: V675 5 www.globalbizresearch.org 2. Does the impact contribute
to any eventuality? 3. What can be recommended as a result of the study?

2.2 Objectives of the Study

 The research shall provide awareness on the impact of overpopulation to the economy and to the
environment in general;  Each city and municipality of the National Capital Region shall benefit by
having the ability to comprehend the effects and therefore be able to perform the needed
countermeasures to forthcoming constraints in their locality;  For the Congress Representative, the
research may be used as basis for future policy making for the city or municipality;  The research can
provide a guide into the proper management of constituents in the city or municipality

3 Related Literature Review Overpopulation is an undesirable condition where the number of existing
human population exceeds the carrying capacity of Earth. Overpopulation is caused by number of
factors. Reduced mortality rate, better medical facilities, depletion of precious resources are few of the
causes which results in overpopulation. It is possible for a sparsely populated area to become densely
populated if it is not able to sustain life (Data Collection and Management System for Air, Water, Noise
& Traffic, 2015). Growing advances in technology with each coming year has affected humanity in many
ways. One of these has been the ability to save lives and create better medical treatment for all. The
breakthroughs have provided society with a good measure of ability to sustain life and thus increase the
population. A direct result of this has been increased lifespan and the growth of the population. In the
past fifty or so years, the growth of population has bellowed into what is the existence at the present
moment. Since the time of the Bubonic Plague in the 1400’s (World Population Profile, 1998), the
growth of population has been on a constant increase. Between the time of the plague and the 21st
century, there was been hundreds and thousands of wars, natural calamities and manmade hazards.
However, none of these have made a dent on the population. Developing nations face the problem of
overpopulation more than developed countries, but it affects most of the Earth as of now. When we are
talking about overpopulation, we should first understand the causes of it. 2.3.1 Causes of
Overpopulation Decline in the Death Rate: At the root of overpopulation is the difference between the
overall birth rate and death rate in populations. If the number of children born each year equals the
number of adults that die, then the population will stabilize. Talking about Proceedings of the Annual
Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social Sciences
(AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper ID: V675 6
www.globalbizresearch.org overpopulation shows that while there are many factors that can increase
the death rate for short periods of time, the ones that increase the birth rate do so over a long period of
time. The discovery of agriculture by our ancestors was one factor that provided them with the ability to
sustain their nutrition without hunting. This created the first imbalance between the two rates.
Technological Advancement in Fertility Treatment: With latest technological advancement and more
discoveries in medical science, it has become possible for couple who are unable to conceive to undergo
fertility treatment methods and have their own babies. Today there are effective medicines which can
increases the chance of conception and lead to rise in birth rate. Moreover, due to modern techniques
pregnancies today are far safer. As compared to the cities of Metro Manila, large migration of people in
many nation (Opinions, 2016) happen in more desirable areas; where manner of living has more quality.
Many people prefer to move to developed countries like US, UK, Canada and Australia where best
facilities are available in terms of medical, education, security and employment. The end result is that
those people settle over there and those places become overcrowded. The difference between the
number of people who are leaving the country and the number of people who enter narrows down
which leads to more demand for food, clothes, energy and homes. This gives rise to shortage of
resources. Though the overall population remains the same, it just affects the density of population
making that place simply overcrowded. Lack of Family Planning: Most developing nations have large
number of people who are illiterate, live below the poverty line and have little or no knowledge about
family planning. Getting their children married at an early age increase the chances of producing more
kids. Those people are unable to understand the harmful effects of overpopulation and lack of ignorance
prompts them to avoid family planning measures. 2.3.2 Effects of Overpopulation Depletion of Natural
Resources: The effects of overpopulation are quite severe. The first of these is the depletion of
resources. The Earth can only produce a limited amount of water and food, which is falling short of the
current needs. Most of the environmental damage being seen in the last fifty odd years is because of the
growing number of people on the planet. They are cutting down forests, hunting wildlife in a reckless
manner, causing pollution and creating a host of problems. Those engaged in talking about
overpopulation have noticed that acts of violence and aggression outside of a war zone have increased
tremendously while competing for resources. Degradation of Environment: The Philippines, as a busy
economy of large number of people have been used to contain food in plastic containers which later
own become garbage. The effect of too much of the trash has clogged the canals and drainage and had
caused Proceedings of the Annual Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business,
Economics, Finance & Social Sciences (AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-
Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper ID: V675 7 www.globalbizresearch.org flooding in the major areas of
the National Capital region (FF Conserve Energy Future, 2010). Great importance is expected to be
provided on the environmental conditions that are brought about by excessive population in any area.
2.3.3 Impact of Population Growth The effects of too many people in one locality puts pressure on what
the locality can readily provide. Many states in the world have provided certain explanation on why
overpopulation is a societal constraint. India is the best country to study the consequences of over
population. Geometric growth in population has pushed our country into population explosion leading
to number of serious consequences. Some of them are: • Decreased availability of food and clothing due
to numerous purchases of the items; • Decreased per capita food availability despite phenomenal
increase in their production; • Decreased per capita GMP and reduced standard of living due to ever
increasing population. • Increased pressure on resources like land, water, natural forests, animals etc.
leading to many far reaching effects like: a) Fragmentation of land below the economic level. b) Acute
shortage of drinking and irrigation water. c) Denudation of forest (Deforestation) to increase the area
under agriculture. d) Pollution of water, land, food materials etc. Greater utilization of resources can
result to scarcity of everything • Urbanization beyond a healthy developmental limit as more rural
people shift to towns / cities in search of better work / earning. Urbanization has led to may problems
such as a) Increased housing problems in cities / towns to include available rentals b) Very high vehicular
movement in cities / towns leading to congestion, accidents, pollution, trip delay, etc. c) Serious
problem connected to vast urban waste generation and its disposal. d) Serious drinking water shortages.
e) Unending demands for civic amenities like roads, transport, markets, etc. • Unemployment problems
of serious dimension both in urban and rural areas leading to a reduced per capita earning, poverty, etc.
• Hunger deaths - because of reduced per capita food availability and poor distribution of food; not all
people get the same nutritious consumption; • Acute shortage of medical facilities including qualified
doctors, medicines, dispensaries, modern health care facilities etc - due to high population. Proceedings
of the Annual Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social
Sciences (AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper
ID: V675 8 www.globalbizresearch.org • Shortage of education facilities including schools, colleges,
qualified teachers. • Serious shortage of power and problems connected with its distribution. •
Increased inflation. • Increased borrowings from international organizations. • Reduced care of young
ones leading to increased child health problems as well as vulnerability of children to many diseases. •
Reduced health care to mothers. • Difficulties encountered in implementation of all national and state
developmental programs. • Increased government expenditure. • Increased density of population. In
India, the over population has engulfed almost all our achievements in industrial growth, agricultural
production, supporting services like medical care, housing, transport, education, banking etc. It has put
serious pressures on every sector of our economy and every section of society. Almost all our national
problems can be traced back to have their roots in overgrowing population. At global level, China and
India are facing overpopulation issues of highest magnitude. But rate of growth of population has
reduced in China substantially in recent years. In India, the rate of growth of population has reduced in
some states - while in others it is yet to be reduced. However, rate of growth may not be the only yard
stick to evaluate overpopulation. Total available population and density of population are important
features to decide whether rate of increase in population really affects the country's progress. For
example, in many African countries like Madagascar, Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia, Angola, Chad,
Gabon, Botswana, Namibia, the growth rate is double than that in India. But, they are not yet
overpopulated because their population density is less than 100 (in few countries it is as low as 6 - 7 per
sq. km - while in India, it is 324). Comparative Age-Sex Pyramids for India: (a) Year 1971 (b) Year
1991(NCS Pearson, 2016). Overpopulation is the consequence of sexual reproduction. Strangely, most
people tacitly assume that overpopulation starts with the birth of a new individual. This mental picture
leaves out the important aspects of sex drive and sexual intercourse. They occur seasonally in animals,
but humans succumb to their sex drive throughout the year. A couple having regular sexual intercourse
every other day usually needs about 6 months before the female partner conceives a child. With a 9-
month gestation period, an average woman is able to have a child every 15 months and about 20
children during her lifetime. Overpopulation is generally defined as an incapability of the society to
support the existing population of humans or other living things (WHO/UNICEF, 2010). Absolute
overpopulation means that the living things have exceeded their ability to sustain their Proceedings of
the Annual Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social
Sciences (AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper
ID: V675 9 www.globalbizresearch.org existence. As a result, the population typically destroys its
environment and starves to death. An example is the Irish potato famine or the contemporary famine in
east Africa. People have been dying in huge numbers because the environment has been unable to
sustain the large populations. By contrast, relative overpopulation is a situation when resources become
scarce. As a result, each individual has less living space, or fewer available resources, or reduced quality
of life. This definition is not always applicable to a given situation, and the word overcrowding might be
a better label. For example, during the funeral of Pope John Paul II, the population of Rome doubled,
and the city was closed to prevent more people from coming in. This was a classic case of overcrowding;
many people wanted to be at one place at the same time. Although this type of temporary
overcrowding can happen even at low population, permanent overcrowding is usually caused by high
population density, when too many people live in a limited area. The area may exhibit just a few
symptoms of overpopulation, but may be doing well in other ways. All metropolises seem to have
problems with automobile traffic and pollution (Metro Manila Commission, 2008), but may still have
space to add new housing units and may have no shortage of natural resources. Even some countries fit
this concept. Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan have many people, but these countries are able to import
food and most raw materials from abroad. However, Taiwan suffers from shortage of water for its
industry; South Korea is no longer able to find enough sea food in its territorial waters, and Japan has
serious problems with affordable housing. All three countries show some symptoms of overpopulation,
but are able to function because they can import food and raw materials from other parts of the world.
Such a situation of local overpopulation has existed since the dawn of humanity. When the local
resources became scarce, people moved elsewhere. Nowadays, people inhabit every livable space on
earth, and overpopulation has become a global existential problem (World Population Profile, 1998). At
present, human overpopulation and loss of habitat for man and beast have become global problems
with devastating consequences. Individuals may run away from this issue for a few years by living in less
populated countries, but overpopulation will reach and affect every corner of the earth in the bitter end.
Asian pollutants only take one year to travel across the Pacific Ocean to the shores of the American
continents. Pollutants from the Americas only travel half the time before they reach the shores of
Europe and Africa. Fish can move from ocean to ocean in weeks, and birds and airborne pollutants only
need days to overcome these "huge" distances. In many ways, the earth is a small place (Highlights
Population Growth rates, 1998). One might say that reducing the population growth to three children
per family would significantly alleviate the consequences of overpopulation, but this opinion is naive.
Any family that has more than two children increases the population. The difference between having
three children and a dozen children is a few generations, and the outcome is the same. Proceedings of
the Annual Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social
Sciences (AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper
ID: V675 10 www.globalbizresearch.org 2.3.4 The Environment In addition to population growth,
humanity has to deal with the increasing impact every living person has on the environment. There is a
two-stage process. First, humans tax the environment by their increasing demand for energy, raw
materials, living space, services, and consumer goods. Second, human activities destroy nature, produce
toxic chemicals, and generate non-biodegradable trash. These activities have devastating consequences
for all life on earth. Man has become so prevalent and so influential that he has altered the flora, fauna,
and landscape of the world. In parallel with human impact on nature, a new phenomenon has evolved
over the last 200 years: loss of natural reserves. Every reasonably livable place on earth is populated
today. The existing natural resources are still sufficient to provide humans with materials and food to
support our huge numbers, but there is no backup. If for some reason the crop failed just for one year,
billions of people could be in danger of starvation. Unlike in the distant past, contemporary humans
cannot go to the forest, jungle, or sea to find enough food during a calamity, because these resources
have been largely depleted. In desperation, people would harvest the few remaining resources to
survive, and thus finish off the still existing plants and wild animals. The next year, there would be
nothing to eat because of human overpopulation and environmental destruction. The same problem can
arise even with man-cultivated crops. If the harvest is bad and people become desperate, they may eat
even the portion of the crop that is supposed to be planted the next season. With nothing to plant the
next spring, deadly famine and wars for survival may become the only options. One of the major causes
of unrestricted multiplication is immediacy of thought in time and space. Adults sexually abused as
children tend to lose emotional intelligence and only care about their momentary needs. What happens
in the future makes no difference. If a couple feels like adding another child to the family, the immediate
desire wins. The woman becomes pregnant with another child, and sometimes with more than one. The
couple's immediacy of thought also results in focus on self. When confronted with overpopulation, the
couple thinks: What is the big deal? We are only having our third child. One more child on earth will
make no difference in the overall population. The couple fails to understand that the earth has a billion
of other families with the same mentality. Is it a crime to have a second, third, fourth, or fifth child?
Apparently not is the answer. The tendency to procreate without restraint is supported by churches,
which depend on big families. The Catholic church in particular opposes any contraception or abortion.
The bigger a family is, the better for the church. More services can be offered, more money can be
made, and more children can be sexually abused by priests. Encouragement of procreation is in the best
interest of the church. The religious establishment does not recognize that it is selfdestructive. Religious
people believe that when they die they will go to heaven and their Gods Proceedings of the Annual
Vietnam Academic Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social Sciences
(AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper ID: V675
11 www.globalbizresearch.org will miraculously provide them with all necessities. Why bother? Why
worry about environmental destruction? Even if it results in human deaths, there is always life in the
heavenly kingdom. The virgins are waiting! And so the emotionally dissociated people multiply without
restraint. Such self-destructive mentality is typical of the western societies. We do not expect them to
have any deeper connection with life, land, and nature. Surprisingly, even the Hawaiian aborigines have
abandoned the sensible ways of their ancestors and multiply excessively, often having 4 or more
children. In this respect, all humans are strikingly similar. It all started with child sexual abuse.
Incidentally, man developed intelligence, improved his chances of survival, thrived, and multiplied. One
day, naturally occurring food could no longer meet the demand of the increasing human population, and
cultivation of crops became a necessity (World Population Profile, 1998). As an attitude and behavior,
though sad to elucidate, many Filipinos would like many children especially so in poor areas. The only
way, as perceived, by the father is to let all his children work and wait for them to give him a portion of
the salary or wage (CSR, Roa, 2011). So, the people want to have many children, and the politicians want
many citizens over whom they can cuddle, provide assistance and use them during elections, or get their
votes, or tax them, or simply because it reads in the Bible that people should multiply. It is God's will,
and the government passes laws that promote population growth (Responsible Parenthood and
Reproductive Health Bill, 2012). The more children a family has, the more money it gets from the
government. In some countries, such as the Soviet Union or Mussolini's Italy, big families received
honorable recognition for having many children. The Soviets bestowed the title "Mother heroine" on
effective breeding machines, and the Italians gave medals to the best breeders. The United States is
doing the same thing to this day. Big families are praised on television, rewarded with tax cuts, and
when a mother delivers quintuplets, the children attract corporate sponsors and receive a guarantee of
college education in a prestigious religious school the government move however does not help the
societal constraint (Countries of Birth of the Foreign Born Population, 1850-2000). 2.3.4 Philippine
Setting Overpopulation in the Republic of the Philippines is believed to cause sustained poverty and
poor economic growth among families by depriving them of the financial resources that are required to
secure education and adequate health care for their children (Christina Allave, 2005). The government
of the Philippines agreed in 1967, along with 12 other countries, that overpopulation is an inhibitor of
economic development, and it began looking into a variety of government-sponsored measures to lower
the rate of population growth. Government intervention in family planning has, however, remained a
controversial issue in the overcrowded archipelago nation. Proceedings of the Annual Vietnam
Academic Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social Sciences (AP16Vietnam
Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper ID: V675 12
www.globalbizresearch.org Economic studies, particularly those involving Asian countries, point to high
fertility rates and rapid population growth among the poor as significant contributors to poverty. They
are also considered factors that lead to environmental, societal and health crises that the governments
of developing economies can find difficult to manage. The hospital maternity wards in Manila, the
capital city of the Philippines and one of the world's 26 megacities based on population, are
overcrowded to the point where several new mothers and their babies are crowded into one bed as
reported by the British daily newspaper The Guardian. The educational system was also reported to be
overburdened with students receiving only about 4 hours of class time each day. Environmental issues in
Manila have been seriously exacerbated by overpopulation. The lack of an adequate sewerage
infrastructure has resulted in contaminated beaches and the terminally polluted Pasig River, which runs
through the city, has been declared to be biologically dead (Sitemap, 2016 Reference).

Methodology The proponents decided the respondents at fifty per city and municipality in order to get
opinions from respondents with prejudice to name, sex, age, address and occupation. It was just made
certain that respondents live within the fifty (50) mile radius of the metropolis. From the major areas of
Quezon City, Manila, Valenzuela, Makati, Pasig, Muntinglupa, Caloocan, and Pasay, the researchers were
able to gather four hundred (400) respondents. People surveyed were given questionnaires in their
offices, diners, mass transit, and transportation terminals to get qualified opinions on the issue at hand.
It was made certain that they reside on the areas mentioned. The survey questions dwelt on the issues
of impact to basic services, environment, employment and business opportunities, peace and order and
traffic and transportation system. The ratings used were scales of 1 to 4 where 4 is the highest at
strongly agree, 3 as agree, 2 as disagree and 1 as strongly disagree. The manner of questioning was
made easy to understand by the respondents and checking in the appropriate boxes is the only effort
that the respondents will make. The most significant results of the survey are as follows: 3.1 Basic
Services  Garbage collections have not been very regular resulting to filthy surroundings and fetid smell
as an opinion by the respondents at WM 1.75 (disagree) when asked on regular rounds of trash
collection. Due to the magnitude of garbage being collected and the fact that trucks don’t make their
rounds in places of illegal settlers have contributed to pile of garbage in the streets.  Street sweepers
have not been around as often as before was a comment on the statement that the streets are regularly
being cleaned (WM 2.20 disagree). Again it Proceedings of the Annual Vietnam Academic Research
Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social Sciences (AP16Vietnam Conference) ISBN:
978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper ID: V675 13 www.globalbizresearch.org has
been considered normal that sweepers do not work in squatter areas and the illegal settlers themselves
are working on the task;  Charity Hospitals are too crowded as an observation by the respondents
inviting attention to the shortage of treatment facilities in almost all government hospitals of the cities
and municipalities. The respondents disagreed (WM 1.86, disagree) that health services have been
provided amply;  Rationing of water have been too often was the response when queried about
sufficiency in the supply of water (WM 2.10 disagree). Too many users of water against normal
consumption and original design for water service can falter if utilization exceeds normal usage; 
Electrical services falter once in a while contributing to delays in manufacture and productivity of almost
all entities was a response made when asked about delivery of electrical services (WM 2.36 disagree) 3.2
Environment Surroundings around the National Capital Region are considerably crowded with people
where most of the constituents stay outside and a lot of people at younger age stay to sell wares, beg
for food, commit petty crimes or unite with peers to form gangs and create street trouble came out as a
general perception of the respondents. The observation is supported by news on television and in
tabloids that the National Capital Region is indeed overpopulated. These have all resulted to situations
that aggravate society’s dilemma. 3.3 Employment and Business Opportunities  Employment has been
scarce (WM 2.23 disagree) when asked if there are sufficient jobs available in the NCR. Since the last
fifteen (15) to twenty (20) years people found it difficult to look for jobs due to employment saturation.
Employment normally demands better skills and talents which many are deprived due to lack of
education or low quality of education in the provinces. The opening of Business Process Outsourcing
industries paved the way to greater employment even for the applicants without a degree. Instead of
returning to their origins, settlers from the province have stayed and worked in these industries;  When
asked if building small businesses are profitable, respondents disagreed (WM 2.26). Selling snacks, small
items etc. have appeared too crowded and have not indicated profitability. Too many people sell and
the situation have reached “cut throat” competition. Only large scale businesses have so far existed and
have managed the “wear and tear” of the economy. Proceedings of the Annual Vietnam Academic
Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social Sciences (AP16Vietnam
Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper ID: V675 14
www.globalbizresearch.org  When asked on the condition of the economy in their perception, they
disagreed (WM 2.0) the National Capital Region is not livable on the standpoint of well-being of people.
3.4 Peace and Order  Numerous and scattered people in the streets invite criminality. The National
Capital Region is beset with the presence of kids who commit petty crimes. When the respondents were
asked: the streets of NCR are totally safe. The statement got a WM of 2.00, disagreed. Youngsters who
were not able to go to school and whose family could not support them with food and enough well-
being live in the streets and are multiplying every day.  Crowded buses and trains are filled with “pick-
pockets.”  The respondents answered that the Police could not exercise total control of the streets as a
comment by respondents; 3.5 Transportation and Traffic System The respondents when asked on the
effectiveness of the transport and traffic system disagreed that it is effective (WM 2.20 disagree). The
impression and/or opinion by the respondents were taken on the context that people get stranded
every day and rides have become scarce. It is however evident that when the number of passengers are
too vast, will prevent an effective transport system. Further, since workplaces are concentrated in a
small radius of the metropolis will certainly fill out the roads and will not allow ease of movement. The
National Capital Region is indeed crowded.

Recommendations

Based on the data gathered and data interpretation made, the following recommendations are offered:
The heads of cities and municipalities should converge and take a careful review of the urban planning
of the metropolis; Industries should take the initiative to relocate their workplaces in order to diffuse
the heavy concentration in a small area radius; The government must take a more serious look at the
emerging areas of illegal settlers and take the initiative to relocate illegal settlers from the metropolis; A
program to collect, rehabilitate, educate street children should be given a serious consideration; A
scheme for color coding of vehicles in three blocs or faction should be implemented; A review of work
scheduling should be initiated by owners of industries; Proceedings of the Annual Vietnam Academic
Research Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance & Social Sciences (AP16Vietnam
Conference) ISBN: 978-1-943579-92-1 Hanoi-Vietnam. 7-9 August, 2016. Paper ID: V675 15
www.globalbizresearch.org Law Enforcement Agencies should assigned greater number of personnel,
increase monitoring of criminality and impose stiffer penalties to crime offenders.

References

ABS-CBN News Countries of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population 1850-2000 Data Collection and
Management, Air, Water, Noise and Traffic, 2003 FF Conserve Energy Future, 2010 GMA News Lourdes
Homecillo, PSA NCR Director, 2015 Metro Manila Commission, 2008 NCS Pearson, 2016 Saad Aklar, 2015
Sitemap 2016 Reference Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950-2050 TV 5 News Brief
WHO/UNICEF, 2010 World Population Profile: 1998 – Highlights, Population Growth Rate.
 Environmental Impacts of Bt Eggplant in the Philippines
Sergio R. Francisco

December 23, 2015

Fruit and shoot borer (FSB) is one of the major pests of eggplant. Reported estimates of yield losses due
to FSB ranged between 20 - 90 percent. Farmers normally apply frequent and heavy doses of pesticides
in futile attempt to control FSB. Many farmers spray their eggplant two or more times a week; some
even spray 60 - 80 times during the production period. Pesticide use is expensive and potentially
damaging to human health and the environment. Unsystematic and excessive use of pesticides kills
beneficial insects, causes environmental pollution, enhances resistance of pests to the chemicals and
resurgence in insect population, and poses risks to humans and animals. Current research initiative at
the Institute of Plant Breeding, University of the Philippines Los Baños focuses on the development of
FSB-resistant (Bt) eggplant. This involved genetic modification of eggplant conferring resistance against
FSB. Bt eggplant has the potential to increase farmers’ income while significantly reducing pesticide use.
This study assessed the potential health and environmental impacts of Bt eggplant currently being
developed in the Philippines.

Assessment

Approach Different methods were applied to quantify potential health and environmental benefits of Bt
eggplant. The objectives are to assess the potential value of health cost savings and environmental
improvements resulting from reduced pesticide use due to the adoption of Bt eggplant. The methods
employed include estimation of risks avoided and farmers’ willingness to pay, application of a health
cost model, and calculation of an environmental impact quotient (EIQ). Economic valuation of health
and environmental impacts of reduced pesticide use due to Bt eggplant adoption is accomplished by
estimating a) the impacts of Bt eggplant on the risks caused by pesticides to various non-target species,
including humans and b) society’s willingness to pay to reduce these risks. In addition, the health cost
model was used to determine ex-ante the health cost savings that would accrue to farmers and
pesticide applicators due to Bt eggplant adoption. EIQ provided estimates of environmental footprints
associated with pesticide use. This indicator integrates the various environmental impacts of individual
pesticides into a single field value per hectare. The data used in the analysis were gathered through
survey of farmers in four eggplant producing provinces, namely, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Batangas, and
Quezon.

Health and Environmental Benefits Farmers apply pesticides an average of 42 times during the
production period to control FSB. The average volume of pesticides applied was 65.6 liters per hectare,
with total active ingredients (a.i.) of around 12 kg. a.i. per hectare. Farmers are spending PhP28,000 per
hectare on pesticides, about 30 percent of the total production costs to control FSB. The use of Bt
eggplant can significantly reduce pesticide use as the technology replaces broad spectrum pesticides.
The estimated value of the reduction in pesticide usage with the adoption of the technology amounted
to PhP2.1 million - PhP2.5 million in health costs savings and about PhP6.8 million in environmental
benefits in terms of reduced harm to farm animals, beneficial insects and avian species. Environmental
Footprint Bt eggplant can reduce pesticide use by as much as 48 percent. Pesticide usage in non-Bt
eggplant was 11.98 kg a.i. per hectare while only about 6.22 kg. a.i per hectare in Bt eggplant. The
estimated field EIQ for the non-Bt eggplant was 245 per ha while that of Bt eggplant was 198 per ha, or
a reduction of 19.5 percent in environmental footprint. Concluding Comments Bt eggplant is expected to
bring about increased marketable yield and profit to resource-poor farmers. The technology can also
contribute to a significant reduction in health and environmental impacts resulting from reduced
pesticide Reduction in environmental footprint from changes in pesticide use associated with Bt
eggplant adoption Particular Without Bt eggplant With Bt eggplant Difference Pesticide use (kg a.i./ha)
11.98 6.22 5.76 Field EIQ 245.59 197.75 47.84 % change in pesticide use 48.08% % change in EIQ
footprint 19.48% use. Other benefits can also be derived from the technology as demonstrated
elsewhere. Locally developed Bt eggplant varieties are currently being tested in the field and may see
commercialization in the near future. Results of this study, together with the agronomic and direct
economic benefits, reinforce the need for continued support for the development, commercialization
and promotion of Bt eggplant in the country. Further analysis of the potential benefits from the
technology could also usefully include other environmental indicators such as impacts on biodiversity
and benefits to consumers.

References.

Program Leader, Impact Assessment and Policy Research Program, Philippine Rice Research Institute
(Philrice), Muñoz, Nueva Ecija, 3119 Philippines. For correspondence, e-mail srfrancisco@philrice.gov.ph
or srfrancisco72@yahoo.com
 Environmental impacts of community-based forest management in the Philippines
Rodel D. Lasco* World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) Philippines, 2F, CFNR Admi. Bldg., UPLB, College,
4031 Laguna, Philippines E-mail: rlasco@cgiar.org *Corresponding author Juan M. Pulhin College of
Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines, College, Laguna, Philippines E-mail:
jmpulhin@laguna.net
December 26, 2015

Abstract:

Community-based forest management (CBFM) is a major strategy in managing forest lands in the
Philippines. Forest and land management activities implemented in CBFM project sites include
management of tropical forests (enrichment planting, timber stand improvement or TSI and limited
harvesting), rehabilitation of degraded lands (reforestation, assisted natural regeneration (ANR)) and
agroforestry. The environmental effects of CBFM and its technologies are largely positive. CBFM has led
to the conservation of natural forests and the associated biodiversity. The planting of trees in farms and
landscapes has led to soil and water conservation, carbon sequestration and biomass production.

Keywords: community-based forest management; the Philippines; assisted natural regeneration;

agroforestry.

Introduction

From being one of the world’s biggest exporters of tropical hardwoods in the 1960s, the Philippines has
become a net importer of wood. Over the years, Philippine forest resources have degenerated because
of massive logging activities, extreme poverty and shifting cultivation. At the end of the 19th century,
70% of total land area (21 Mha) was covered with lush forests (Garrity et al., 1993). At present, only
about 20% (6 Mha) of forests remain, of which less than 1 Mha are old-growth forests. There are
perhaps 8 Mha of degraded forestland (Lasco and Pulhin, 1998). Current deforestation rate has been
estimated at 100,000 ha per year. There are about 20 million Filipinos living in upland watershed areas,
half of whom are dependent on shifting cultivation for livelihood (Cruz and Zosa-Feranil, 1988). In the
last two decades, CBFM has become an important lynchpin of the government’s programme to address
upland poverty and forestland management in the Philippines. CBFM has been declared as the national
strategy for forestland management. The main objective of this paper is to assess the environmental
impacts of CBFM activities in the Philippines based on a review of existing literature. There are few
studies that have directly assessed the environmental effects of CBFM projects as a whole. However,
there are many studies that have assessed the environmental effects of individual CBFM technology
components.

Overview of CBFM in the Philippines In 1995, an executive order was issued by the then President Fidel
V. Ramos, adopting CBFM as the national strategy for sustainable forestry and social equity, thereby
institutionalising the practice of community forestry in the country. Under this proclamation, the
different programmes and projects that were implemented in the last two decades were ‘integrated and
unified’ into one umbrella programme, otherwise known as the community-based forest management
program (CBFMP). The program aims to • protect and advance the right of the Filipino people to a
healthful environment • improve the socio-economic conditions of the Filipino people through the
promotion of social justice and equitable access to and sustainable development of forestlands
resources • respect the rights of indigenous peoples to their ancestral domains by taking into account
their customs, traditions and beliefs in the formulation of laws and policies. 48 R.D. Lasco and J.M.
Pulhin The institutionalisation of CBFM was seen as the main government strategy towards the
restructuring of the once corporate-controlled timber industry (Ramos, 1993). Timber licensee
agreements (TLAs) used to control one-third of the country’s total land area of 30 Mha from 1971 to
1977. With the shift in the government’s forest management approach in favor of CBFM, starting from
the 1980s, TLA areas gradually declined to the present figure of less than a million hectare owing to the
cancellation of erring licensees and non-renewal of the expired ones. The 1997 DENR strategic action
plan for CBFM envisioned that 9 million hectares of forestlands mostly under the existing and potential
open access areas would be placed under community management by the year 2008. This constitutes
around 58% of the country’s total forestland area. On the other hand, only 0.5 Mha is expected to be
allocated for industrial tree plantations and other purposes (DENR, 1990). To date, close to 6 Mha of
forestlands are under some form of community forest management. Of these, about 4.7 Mha have been
issued with various forms of land tenure instruments, including around 1.57 Mha issued with
community-based forest management agreement or CBFMA (FMB, 2004). CBFMA is an agreement
entered between the government and the local community, represented by the People’s Organisation,
as forest managers, which has a term of 25 years and is renewable for another 25 years. It allows
organised communities to harvest timber from plantations and second growth forests subject to existing
regulations on timber harvesting, on the condition that the area will be protected and managed
according to the principles of sustained-yield forest management. The community must also use a
portion of the income derived from harvesting to protect, renew and improve the forest resources and
also to engage in alternative sources of livelihood. The most recent record available at the CBFM division
of the forest management bureau of the DENR indicates that 690,687 households are involved in the
implementation of the CBFM program. At an average size of about six persons per household in the
Philippine uplands, around 4.14 million people are potential direct beneficiaries of the program.

Overview of CBFM in the Philippines In 1995, an executive order was issued by the then President Fidel
V. Ramos, adopting CBFM as the national strategy for sustainable forestry and social equity, thereby
institutionalising the practice of community forestry in the country. Under this proclamation, the
different programmes and projects that were implemented in the last two decades were ‘integrated and
unified’ into one umbrella programme, otherwise known as the community-based forest management
program (CBFMP). The program aims to • protect and advance the right of the Filipino people to a
healthful environment • improve the socio-economic conditions of the Filipino people through the
promotion of social justice and equitable access to and sustainable development of forestlands
resources • respect the rights of indigenous peoples to their ancestral domains by taking into account
their customs, traditions and beliefs in the formulation of laws and policies. 48 R.D. Lasco and J.M.
Pulhin The institutionalisation of CBFM was seen as the main government strategy towards the
restructuring of the once corporate-controlled timber industry (Ramos, 1993). Timber licensee
agreements (TLAs) used to control one-third of the country’s total land area of 30 Mha from 1971 to
1977. With the shift in the government’s forest management approach in favor of CBFM, starting from
the 1980s, TLA areas gradually declined to the present figure of less than a million hectare owing to the
cancellation of erring licensees and non-renewal of the expired ones. The 1997 DENR strategic action
plan for CBFM envisioned that 9 million hectares of forestlands mostly under the existing and potential
open access areas would be placed under community management by the year 2008. This constitutes
around 58% of the country’s total forestland area. On the other hand, only 0.5 Mha is expected to be
allocated for industrial tree plantations and other purposes (DENR, 1990). To date, close to 6 Mha of
forestlands are under some form of community forest management. Of these, about 4.7 Mha have been
issued with various forms of land tenure instruments, including around 1.57 Mha issued with
community-based forest management agreement or CBFMA (FMB, 2004). CBFMA is an agreement
entered between the government and the local community, represented by the People’s Organisation,
as forest managers, which has a term of 25 years and is renewable for another 25 years. It allows
organised communities to harvest timber from plantations and second growth forests subject to existing
regulations on timber harvesting, on the condition that the area will be protected and managed
according to the principles of sustained-yield forest management. The community must also use a
portion of the income derived from harvesting to protect, renew and improve the forest resources and
also to engage in alternative sources of livelihood. The most recent record available at the CBFM division
of the forest management bureau of the DENR indicates that 690,687 households are involved in the
implementation of the CBFM program. At an average size of about six persons per household in the
Philippine uplands, around 4.14 million people are potential direct beneficiaries of the program.

Conclusions

In response to watershed and forest degradation, the Philippines has adopted CBFM as a key strategy.
Forest management technologies such as agroforestry and tree farming are being promoted. This review
has shown that the environmental effects of these technologies are largely positive. CBFM has led to the
conservation of natural forests and the associated biodiversity. The incorporation of trees in farms and
landscapes has led to soil and water conservation and carbon sequestration. Much of the evidence
presented is based on research on just one component of CBFM. Still lacking is comprehensive research
that assesses the total environmental impact of CBFM.

Environment and Natural Resources /United Nations Environment Program). (1997), Philippine
Biodiversity: An Assessment and Action Plan, Bookmark Inc, Makati City, Philippines. EMB (1990) The
Philippine Environment in the Eighties, Environmental Management Bureau, DENR, Quezon City,
Philippines, p.302. Fernandez Jr., R.F., Ang-Lopez, M. and Defiesta, G. (2004) KMYLB and Key Factors in
CBForM Resilience in Brgy Nugas, Alcoy, Cebu, Philippines, A terminal report submitted to the
Department of Environment and Natural Resources-Forest Management Bureau (DENR-FMB) on 20th
August 2004 in fulfillment of research contract PR 28573 between the National Forest Programme
Facility (through the Food and Agricultural Organization) and UP Visayas Foundation Incorporated. FMB
(1996) Forestry Statistics (1995), Forest Management Bureau, Quezon City, Philippines. FMB (2004)
Community-Based Forest Management, A National Strategy to Promote Sustainable Forestry,
Background Information, Power Point Presentation. le CBFM program.

References

Boquiren, R. (2004) Rewards for Environmental Services in the Philippine Uplands: Constraints and
Opportunities for Institutional Reform, Final Report, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Philippines.
Carandang, A.P. and Cardenas, L.C. (1991) ‘Insights into the problems encountered by government
reforestation efforts’, Phil Lumberman, Vol. 37, No. 6, pp.10–12. Carandang, W.M. and Lasco, R.D.
(1998) ‘Successful reforestation in the Philippines: technical considerations’, in Mega Issues in Philippine
Forestry: Key Policies and Programs, Forest Development Center, UPLB, Philippines, pp.49–59. Cruz,
M.C. and Zosa-Feranil, I. (1988) Policy Implications of Population Pressure in the Philippines, Paper
prepared for the World Bank study on Forestry, Fisheries and Agricultural Resource Management,
University of the Philippines, Los Banos, Philippines. Cruz, R.V.O. (1982) Hydrometeorological
Characterization of Selected Upland Cropping Systems in Mt. Makiling, MSc Thesis, University of the
Philippines at Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines. Dano, A.M. and Siapno, F. (1988) Evaluation of Soil and
Water Conservation Structures and Agroforestry Copping Schemes in Region VIII. ERDB-DENR, College,
Laguna, Philippines. de la Cruz, L.U. and Luna, A.C. (1994) ‘Effects of Acacia auriculiformis and Gmelina
arborea on Soil and microclimate of a degraded grassland in Nueva Ecija, Philippines’, Proc. of the
International Symposium on Rehabilitation of Degraded Forest Lands in the Tropics, Japan International
Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS), Tsukuba, Japan, pp.46–54. DENR (1990) Philippine
Master Plan for Forestry Development, DENR, Quezon City, Philippines. DENR/UNEP.
 Charcoal Production in San Narciso, Quezon, Philippines and Laudato Si: An Ethical Consideration
Genaro Jordan Rondina1 1 De La Salle University; De La Salle – College of Saint Benilde *Corresponding
Author: genaro.rondina@dlsu.edu.ph

December 28, 2015

Abstract:

It is commonly perceived that charcoal production is destructive to the environment and human life.
Hence, this practice is challenging environmental ethics which calls for its cessation to save the planet
from excessive greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. With issues on environment, the Catholic Church calls
for the necessity of ethical stewardship and care for the earth whose natural resources are unstoppably
abused and exploited. This call is clear in the encyclical letter Laudato Si of Pope Francis issued in 2015.
Indeed, the encyclical is laudable because Pope Francis strongly argues with those in the scientific-
technological community that global warming is mainly caused by human activities. However, not
always that charcoal production is destructive to the environment. There are ways by which charcoal
production can be sustainable to the environment, consumers, and producers. Specifically, certain
charcoal producers who are poor and policy enforcers in San Narciso, Quezon have practiced a
sustainable production of charcoal. They should be recognized in their good practice in protecting the
environment and giving concern for those living in poverty. Hence, it is ethically important to recognize
and applaud certain communities having a sustainable practice of charcoal production. It is also an
imperative that the advocacy to safeguard the environment requires to have an ethical consideration for
those whose practice of charcoal production is sustainable.

Key Words: Charcoal Production; Environmental Ethics; Environmental Sustainability; Laudato Si

Introduction

There is a common perception that charcoal production is absolutely destructive to the environment
and human life. This research argues that such claim is not true at certain places; since there is
community in certain area of the Philippines practicing a sustainable charcoal production. This practice
of environmental sustainability is lived out by the poor farmers producing charcoal in San Narciso,
Quezon Province. The poverty situation of the poor farmers in San Narciso, Quezon is given attention
and priority by the encyclical Laudato Si. At the same, the sustainable practice of charcoal production is
also encouraged. Therefore, such sustainable practice and poverty situation of the poor farmers in San
Narciso, Quezon deserve importantly an ethical consideration how anyone should view charcoal
production in relation to environmental issues.

Definition and Uses of Charcoal

Defining charcoal is hard to attain. Researches about charcoal have varied descriptions because of its
several uses and the way it is produced. However, let it suffice what the American Chemical Society (M.J.
Antal, Jr. and M. Gronli, 2003) describes: carbon (or charcoal) is a preferred product of biomass pyrolysis
at moderate temperatures, with byproducts of carbon dioxide, water, methane, and traces of carbon
monoxide. This description fits how the farmers produce charcoal in San Narciso, Quezon which will be
described later how the charcoal is produced. In Metro Manila, there is a high demand of charcoal in the
market. Food businesses using charcoal are observable: Mang Andoks, Mang Inasal, Seňor Pedro, etc.
These food businesses can be seen in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Not to mention the several other
food businesses using charcoal and sprouting around the entire country, Thus, charcoal is widely used in
the Philippines. In fact, a certain percentage of households still uses charcoal as fuelwood in cooking
food despite advances in technology and other available sources of energy like electricity, kerosene, and
LPG. Charcoal has always been a favorite fuel for cooking (J.M. Antal, Jr. and M. Gronli, 2003). Charcoal
is used for cooking, smoking fish, and lime burning in Tondo and Malabon, for pottery and tile firing in
nearby Pasig and Makati, and for brick making (D.F. Doeppers, 2007). Charcoal is also used for arts going
back to ancient times 30,000 – 38,000 years ago until today (M.J. Antal, Jr. and M. Gronli, 2003).
Charcoal is also useful in cement. It contributes to better cement quality (P.B. Onaji and R.V. Siemons,
1993). Charcoal also improves nutrient contents resulting to increase of maize yields (P.G. Oguntunde,
et. al., 2004). In the Philippines, the certain percentage of charcoal users has been determined in terms
of household energy consumption by the National Statistics Office. Three surveys have been conducted
in 1989 (32.1%), 1995 (38.5%), and 2004 (34.2%). Bensel and Remegio (2002) present an estimate report
that there is 1–2 million metric tons per year (estimate range) and 1.2 million metric tons per year (best
estimate) of household charcoal consumption. This is equivalent to 7.2 million metric tons of wood. This
only shows that Filipinos still use charcoal despite advances in technology (electricity, LPG, and
Kerosene). Obviously, charcoal is highly being demanded in the market; and as response it is produced
with reasons despite the danger it can cause to the environment and human life.

The Practice and Techniques of Producing Charcoal and Its Producers in San Narciso, Quezon Charcoal
production is an ancient practice since time immemorial. Its production is basically due to high demand
in the market. There are several methods and techniques in producing charcoal. Charcoal producers use
the traditional and modern methods. Traditionally, the most common methods are the use of oil drums
as furnaces and the earth–pit (R.C.M Pinili, 2006). Oil drum as furnace is used for coconut shells which
are put inside with fire and covered either banana leaves or metal sheets. Earth–pit is done; woodcuts
are placed in it with fire to produce charcoal. It is then covered with either grass or soil. In San Narciso,
Quezon, charcoal is produced through binulkan technique, from the term bulkan which literally means
volcano, similar with those charcoal producers in nearby towns (Mulanay, Catanauan, San Andres, and
Aurora). The kiln is made through piling the woodcuts in uniform length but different in diameter. Then,
as it fires inside it is covered with grass and soil until the woodcuts are fully carbonized. The binulkan
technique looks like a volcano releasing its smoke in the air with pungent smell. The fire is being
controlled in the production of charcoal. Beneath the pile of woodcuts covered with grass or soil is a
created small hole for the air ventilation and support the combustion and carbonization process inside
the kiln. The time to complete the carbonization depends solely on the number of woodcuts. The
charcoal producer keeps an eye and sees to it that the carbonization process does not create fire
outside; or else the entire pile of woodcuts results to ashes. If ever there is a hole outside the kiln due to
the deoxidation of the woodcuts, the producer must cover it each time with hay and soil to fully control
the carbonization process to produce large amount of charcoal harvest. Charcoal is produced 7.7% as its
efficiency rate in terms of weight (Inzon, et. al., 2016). This charcoal yield is almost similar with 7.5%
computation of Nahayo, et. al. (2013). FAO (2017) provides data on kiln efficiencies; one can compare
and realize how inefficient the binulkan technique is. See table 1. Kiln Types and Efficiencies Found in
the Literature (FAO, 2017) Kiln type Efficiency Range (%) Earth-mound 9–30 Casamance 17–30 Earth-pit
12–30 Metal 20–38 Brick and orange 27–35 Drum 20–38 Retort 22–40 This implies that charcoal
production in San Narciso, Quezon is low and needs improvement in technique. Charcoal producers
need support for improvement due to lack of knowledge and skills since they employ only the binulkan
technique. Charcoal producers in San Narciso, Quezon follow certain policies implemented by the
municipal local government. They cut certain trees as prescribed by the Municipal Environmental and
Natural Resources Office (MENRO). These species of trees as wood sources for charcoal are known
locally as Ipil-ipil (Leucaena leucocephala), Tibig (Ficus nota), Binunga (Macaranga tamarius), and
Kakawate popularly known as Madre de Cacao (Gliricidia sepium). They also produce charcoal from
fruit–bearing trees such as Mangga, Santol, and Bayabas especially if these are non–productive. In case
of need, they cut trees (Acacia, Mahogany, Jimelina, Mangroove, Hanagdong) prohibited by the local
government but they do not cut the entire tree. They practice coppicing (leaving the stump) and pruning
(cutting off only the branches) especially if these trees hinder the proper growth of coconuts. This is to
let the tree or stump grow again for a certain period (2–5 years) until the next harvest cycle. They also
produce charcoal from fallen trees due to strong typhoons. This practice also supports them when their
farm crops and livelihood are devastated by typhoons. Charcoal producers in San Narciso, Quezon are
mostly coming from the underprivileged farmer sectors who are truly left behind in their human and
economic development. Relationship between poverty and charcoal production can truly be observed.
In the Philippines, charcoal production are sources of fuel and income for the poor (M.B.Q. Inzon, et al.,
2016). In the Democratic Republic of the Congo – one of the poorest countries in the world, around 85%
of the households use wood and charcoal as cooking fuel (Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, 2017). Charcoal production supports both its producers as source of income and
consumers for cooking purposes. Its practice needs an ethical consideration not only on the economic
aspects. In San Narciso, Quezon, the charcoal producers follow the policies implemented by the local
government. They practice coppicing and pruning which are not totally destructive to the environment.
Their practice allows the trees to recover and regenerate within a certain period. The binulkan
technique is not satisfactory in terms of charcoal yields. The producers must import knowledge and
develop skills and techniques which increase charcoal yields. Only few of these charcoal producers had
college education (M.B.Q. Inzon, et. al, 2016). This implies the necessity for financial resources to
acquire knowledge and develop skills. Their poverty situation hinders them to fully and humanly develop
themselves. Much more their human development is hindered when charcoal production is totally
perceived as destructive to the environment. Hence, ethical consideration is necessary.

Impacts of Charcoal Production One must affirm that charcoal production has negative impacts on
environment and human life. Charcoal production is more likely to lead to the overexploitation of wood
resources (FAO, 2017). Charcoal production could have major environmental consequences particularly
if not controlled well (P. Girard, 2002). In Asia, the major driver of forest degradation is timber logging
which is about 82%; while fuelwood or charcoal is only less than 20% (Kissinger, Herold and De Sy,
2012). It does not mean that less than 20% has no major impacts on environment. Chidumayo and
Gumbo (2013) estimated that: “Charcoal production was responsible for 540 hectares of deforestation
in Oceania in 2009, 39,000 hectares in Central America, 240,000 hectares in South America, 510,000
hectares in Asia and 2,976,000 hectares in Africa; based on these estimates, Africa accounts for nearly
80 percent of the charcoal-based deforestation in the world’s tropical regions.” The Food and
Agriculture Organization (2017) provides a substantial data regarding worldwide charcoal production.
“The global production of wood charcoal was estimated at 52 million tonnes (Mt) in 2015. More than
half (62.1 percent) was produced in Africa, followed by the Americas (19.6 percent) and Asia (17
percent), with small quantities produced in Europe (1.2 percent) and Oceania (0.1 percent). FAO data
indicate a clear trend of increasing global charcoal production – production increased by 19 percent in
the ten years to 2015 and by 46 percent in the last 20 years (FAO, 2016a); most of the increase was in
Africa. In 2015, the world’s top ten charcoal-producing countries were (in descending order) Brazil,
Nigeria, Ethiopia, India, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, the United Republic of Tanzania,
China, Madagascar and Thailand.” The demand for charcoal continues to increase. Thus, charcoal
production brings with it a serious threat in human life and environment if uncontrolled. This truth
necessitates serious attention to safeguard the environment. The condition is to control charcoal
production. If uncontrolled, charcoal production precisely leads to environmental destruction. Global
warming and climate change will come to its worst. FAO (2017) enlists the impacts of charcoal
production on the environment.

Climate Change Unsustainable wood harvesting, incomplete combustion, and inefficient charcoal
production mainly increase and contribute to the impact of greenhouse gas emission (GHG) in the
atmosphere. However, sustainable charcoal production can help controlling the GHG emission in the
atmosphere. Thus, climate change can be mitigated. It is important to note that charcoal is a renewable
energy source. Regenerating forests and trees can help capture carbon from the atmosphere (FAO,
2017; Rebugio, et. al., 2000). Biodiversity Uncontrolled charcoal production can cause great negative
effects on forest. Deforestation and forest degradation can damage biodiversity. Habitats can be
reduced and fragmented. Ecosystem may loss its proper function (Butz, 2013; Ndegwa, et al., 2016;
Bailis, et. al., 2013). On Water and Soil Charcoal production does affect soil and water particularly
because of forest degradation and deforestation. Rigorous cutting of trees for charcoal reduces forest
and creates impacts on soil and water sheds (Beukering, et. al., 2007). Due to deforestation and forest
degradation, soil reduces its fertility and river increases sedimentation which decreases the infiltration
of water into the soil (Butz, 2013). However, charcoal production also creates biochar1 which can have
good effects on soil properties such as availability of nutrients and microbial activity (Hernandez–
Soriano, et. al., 2016). On Socio–Economic Outcomes Majority of the charcoal producers are coming
from the poor social sector. Poverty situation compels them to produce charcoal in either fitting or
unfitting means. Some producers do sustainable charcoal production while others do the contrary.
Charcoal production contributes to the livelihood of the poor producers. They supply the energy
demands in rural and urban communities (Iiyama, et. al., 2014) Nevertheless, one should also not forget
that there are several factors contributing to the destruction of the environment. Charcoal production is
not a major contributor (Kissinger, Herold and De Sy, 2012) in climate change seen as top global threat
to human life (Carle, 2015). Indeed, such emphasis on the negative impacts has been considered by
advocates for environmental protection. Universities and government sectors have responded to
environmental crises. They participate in tree planting, waste segregation, coastal clean–up, and any
other environmental action to care for the environment. In other words, climate change becomes
almost everybody’s concern. The Filipinos (72%) are worried of this global threat (Jill Carle, 2015). 1
Biochar is defined by Verheijen et al. (2010) as charcoal for which, owing to its inherent properties,
scientific consensus exists that its application to soil at a specific site is expected to sustainably
sequester carbon and concurrently improve soil functions. To summarize, it is commonly perceived that
charcoal production is destructive to the environment and a threat to human life. It contributes to
climate change, but not its great main contributor. It is observed that its threatening impact on the
environment is due primarily to unbridled charcoal production. Hence, sustainable charcoal production
is necessitated to supplement livelihood for the poor charcoal producers and meet the demands for
charcoal in the urban and rural households. In this sense, the common perception on charcoal
production should be put in the right perspective so that the ethical consideration takes place. The
Problem with Misconception on Charcoal Production The Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations has sensed this misconception on charcoal production. FAO (2017, p. 2) points out that
the World Leaders during the 2015 Paris Agreement to mitigate climate change have poorly understood
the potential of charcoal value. FAO (2017) accuses the 2015 Paris Agreement that the opportunities for
emission reductions in the charcoal sector are not well–reflected in the nationally determined
contributions (NDC). FAO (2017) appreciates that charcoal greening is the “efficient and sustainable
sourcing, production, transport, distribution and use of charcoal, resulting in improved human well-
being and social equity and reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. It is low–carbon,
resource–efficient, produced from sustainably sourced wood, and socially inclusive.” Moreover, this
misconception on charcoal value is also exhibited by Filipinos (72%). In this regard, misconception
deprives those in the charcoal sector of their positive contribution to mitigate climate change and
livelihood to sustain their family’s needs. Misconception on charcoal production can disprove the
concept and practice of environmental sustainability which is the potential of the charcoal sector to
contribute in the advocacy for safeguarding the environment. There can be a tendency to bluntly
discourage the charcoal sector to stop its production. This is not fair for those in the charcoal sector.
Hence, the writer argues that misconception on charcoal production becomes problematic and a burden
for those in the charcoal sector. There needs an ethical consideration. On Environmental Sustainability
The major response of the World Leaders on global warming and climate change is to reduce GHG
emission. With environmental crises, sustainable charcoal production is key to the assessment of its
impact on climate change (FAO, 2016). Sustainable practice of charcoal production supports carbon
capture from the atmosphere. It can mitigate GHG emission. In other words, environmental
sustainability is called for action by world conferences on environmental issues. It is a commitment and
central in the discussions of the United Nations’ Rio +20 (June 2012) and Johannesburg Plan of
Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development. The idea of sustainability is well–
explained with its broad relationships with economy, environment, and policies. First, the economic
dimension of sustainability gives a singular concern with those poor in developing countries. The main
goal is to eradicate poverty as the greatest global challenge and an indispensable requirement for
sustainable development, particularly for developing countries (Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, §
7–13). The United Nations recognize the significant role of the poor sector to contribute in sustainable
development through environmentally sound production and enhancement of livelihood (Rio +20, June
2012, § 52). Poor sector’s contribution is significant in the economy of a country. In this regard, FAO
(2017) reveals that the poor sector generates income from charcoal production for 40 million people.
Failure to regulate charcoal production means forgoing billions of dollars revenue. Second, sustainability
is much ethically needed in the context of environmental crises. The United Nations affirms the
necessity to manage the natural resources based on sustainable and integrated manner (Johannesburg
Plan of Implementation, § 24). With unbridled charcoal production, one cannot disregard its impact on
the environment. It is important to remember Super Typhoons devastating infrastructures, livelihood,
and human lives such as Katrina (2005) and Haiyan (2014), not to mention Tsunamis and earthquakes.
Recalling such devastations reminds of the repercussions due to environmental exploitation without
care for nature. The United Nations stress the need for a regular review of the state of the Earth’s
changing environment and its impact on human well–being (Rio +20, 2012, § 90). FAO (2017) reports
that: “An estimated 1–2.4 Gt CO2e of greenhouse gases are emitted annually in the production and use
of fuelwood and charcoal, which is 2–7 percent of global anthropogenic emissions. These emissions are
due largely to unsustainable forest management and inefficient charcoal manufacture and woodfuel
combustion.” In other words, practicing sustainability is to advocate safeguarding the environment and
human lives at present and future generations. The practice of sustainability involves varied ways. In
Mulanay, Quezon Province, M.R.B. Inzon, et al. (2016) made an analysis of environmental sustainability
regarding charcoal production. The researchers conclude that sustainable charcoal production industry
in Mulanay can be achieved by planting and utilizing suitable tree species and improving harvesting
systems and production techniques. In San Narciso, Quezon, sustainable charcoal production is done by
coppicing and pruning the branches. This means that environmental sustainability allows the trees to
regenerate and grow for the next harvesting cycle for charcoal production. In some places, charcoal
producers do briquetting technique which is the process of converting low bulk density biomass into
high density and energy concentrated fuel briquettes (Sugumaran and Seshadri, 2010). Charcoal
briquetting is also a sustainable practice because it utilizes light biomass such as corn cob, rice husk,
sawdust, coconut shell, almond shell, and cotton shell. Charcoal briquetting avoids cutting of trees for
charcoal. Third, sustainability necessitates regulating charcoal production. The United Nations through
FAO (2017) mainly points out that the 2–7 % of global anthropogenic emissions is largely due to
unsustainable forest management and inefficient charcoal manufacture and woodfuel combustion. The
United Nations reinvigorates its political commitments. The commitment is to combat climate change in
accordance with the principles and provisions of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change. Hence, environmental sustainability is about eradicating poverty to lift the condition of the
poor sector. It allows the responsible use of the natural resources and regeneration of trees for
charcoal. Those in the charcoal sector should learn to regulate and observe policies about sustainable
charcoal production. In this concern, it should be realized that environmental sustainability is mainly a
teaching of the Catholic Church specifically in the encyclical Laudato Si (2015). Laudato Si: The Church’s
Teaching on Environmental Crises Pope Francis publicized the encyclical Laudato Si in 2015. This
encyclical is an ethical evaluation and judgment regarding environmental crises that the Mother Earth is
crying out. The encyclical’s careful evaluation and judgment is based on scientific evidences (Chapter 1).
It describes the Mother Earth crying out because of pollution, climate change, water issue, and loss of
biodiversity. These environmental conundrums cause the decline human life quality, societal
breakdown, and global inequality. It sees the weak responses amidst these environmental tragedies. He
points out that the earth is in serious danger and proposes an urgent ethical response. In facing this
ecological crisis, the encyclical explains the theological aspect of creation (Chapter 2). It sees the
significant contribution of faith in the context of religion and spirituality to ecological crises. To care for
nature is a duty towards the Creator and essential part of Christian faith. It explains further the wisdom
of biblical accounts which suggest that human life is in close relationship with God, neighbor, and
nature. This relationship has been broken because of sin. Thus, the blessing of natural resources has
been abusively exploited. Then, it points out the need to be in harmony with creation as the gaze of
Jesus with all that God has created. It then proceeds by pointing the human roots of this ecological crisis
(Chapter 3). Pope Francis identifies that technology greatly contributes in environmental crisis. There is
something to worry about technocratic paradigm which is an uncontrollable power to exploit nature for
technological purposes specifically by those who have knowledge and economic resources. This
paradigm is deeply embedded in the social consciousness (modern anthropocentrism) which sees
nature as insensate objects to be hammered into useful shapes that can be thrown with complete
indifference afterwards. These deep causes necessarily require a new synthesis to overcome the false
arguments of technocratic paradigm and modern anthropocentrism. The main proposal of the encyclical
is integral ecology (chapter 4) strongly emphasizing the interconnectedness of human beings with
nature. Integral ecology also concerns with history, culture, and architecture needing to be protected
and preserved (§ 143). Moreover, this chapter also explains the necessity of the daily life ecology which
gives attention to the urban environment. It points out that human beings have great capacity for
adaptation, responding to ecological crises by limiting their adverse effects in their lives. Integral ecology
is inseparable from the principle of common good. Safeguarding the environment is good for all. It is
also justice for the coming generations. Notable in integral ecology is the concept of environmental
sustainability. It is a “consideration [that] must be given to each ecosystem’s regenerative ability in its
different areas and aspects” (§ 140). The concept of environmental sustainability is so important
because one can clearly see how this has been practiced by charcoal producers in San Narciso, Quezon.
Then, the encyclical critically points out the problems regarding the line of approaches and actions on
environmental crisis (Chapter 5). There are problems in World Summits, national and local policies,
transparency in decision-making, politics and economy. The encyclical suggests political will, unified
agreements, far-sighted solutions, greater sense of responsibility, a strong sense of community, and
honest discussions founded on truth. Notable in this chapter is the priority of poor countries needing to
eliminate extreme poverty and promote social development. This priority of the poor sector is
important to consider because this is the situation of charcoal producers in San Narciso, Quezon. Lastly,
the encyclical proposes the significance of ecological education and spirituality (Chapter 6). This section
challenges everyone to go through an ecological conversion to attain the desired change amidst the
ecological crisis. “Change is impossible without motivation and a process of education” (§ 15). In the
researcher’s view, the encyclical poses a kind of understanding that is so careful and evaluative of the
nature, impacts and affected ones of ecological devastation and crisis. With its nature, indeed, the
phenomenon of this ecological crisis can be experienced in everyday life wherever one will go. Its impact
is more of the decline of the quality of life. Ecological crisis affects everyone, mostly the poor sector.
Careful and evaluative understanding are demands of the encyclical. In view of charcoal production, it is
a reminder therefore that one should not right away view and judge that charcoal production is
absolutely destructive to nature. This must be an ethical consideration when one sees a piece of
charcoal produced for the sake of sustaining one’s life and cooking food. Though of course, there is truth
that some of the charcoal sector produce for the sake of profit. Yet, one is challenged to be specific in
identifying the places of charcoal production and the producers. The truth is there is a sustainable
practice of charcoal production; and this can be seen in the poor farmers of San Narciso, Quezon
Province. They have not disregarded their duty towards nature, others, and primarily to their family. In
this regard, the two notable concepts pointed out by the encyclical Laudato Si must be viewed as an
ethical consideration in view of charcoal production. These concepts are environmental sustainability
and priority of the poor. Ethical Consideration: Environmental Sustainability and Priority of the Poor The
context of the charcoal producers in San Narciso, Quezon demands an ethical consideration because
they are poor. One can strongly argue that such absolute perspective – that charcoal production is
destructive to nature – pushes the poor to dwell more in poverty. Such perspective is too narrow and
deprive the poor charcoal producers the other means of sustaining their lives. In San Narciso, Quezon,
the poor farmers produce charcoal by practicing environmental sustainability. They practice
environmental sustainability by way of pruning (cutting the branches) and coppicing (leaving the stump)
of the trees. In other words, they allow the regenerative cycle of the trees. Laudato Si instructs that
“when we speak of sustainable use, consideration must always be given to each ecosystem’s
regenerative ability in its different areas and aspects” (§ 140). Obviously, the poor farmers of San
Narciso, Quezon consider the ecosystem’s regenerative ability. Not only this, they also observe the local
policy regarding charcoal production. The local government of San Narciso, Quezon implements that
only CALAAN (Ipil-ipil, Kakawate, Tibig, and Binunga) species are to be cut. In case of need, they prune
tree branches of Acacia, Mahogany, Jimelina, Mangroove, Hanagdong, and Narra which are hardwood
trees still allowing the regenerative ability of nature. Still, this is permitted by the local government as
told by the local producers of charcoal and policy–enforcers of local government of San Narciso,
Quezon. This practice of environmental sustainability and observance of local policies on environment
are responsive to ecological crisis. In other words, the poor farmers producing charcoal participate
ethically in addressing ecological issues. One can sense that such sustainable practice and observance of
local policies on safeguarding the environment deserve and applause, appreciation, and mostly support
from the academe. This sustainable practice should be propagated and known by any affected
stakeholders on charcoal production particularly the policy–implementing sector. For there is tendency
to rigidly uphold the policy than responding to the needs of the poor in sustaining their lives. It is in this
sense that the encyclical Laudato Si must be considered by those faithful in the policy–implementing
sector whose view is influenced by absolutism on charcoal production as destructive to the
environment. They should not forget that the encyclical has given priority of the poor. It states that, “For
poor countries, the priorities must be to eliminate extreme poverty and to promote the social
development of their people” (LS, § 172). Conclusively, this ethical consideration implies justice given to
those poor farmers producing charcoal in view of their poverty situation. In this sense, this research
opens the opportunity to go into places of poverty and understand how the poor cope up with their
lives particularly their livelihood affecting the environment and any individual in the society. It is the way
by which anyone can have a change of perspective specifically regarding charcoal production. Such way
is the very purpose and aim served by this paper.

References:

Antal, J.M., Jr., & Gronli, M. (2003). The Art, Science, and Technology of Charcoal Production. Ind. Eng.
Chem. Res. Vol. 42. No. 8. 1619–1640. American Chemical Society. Bailis, R., Rujanavech, C., Dwivedi, P.,
Oliveira Vilela, A., Chang, H. & Carneiro de Miranda R. 2013. Innovation in Charcoal Production: A
Comparative Life– Cycle Assessment of Two Kiln Technologies in Brazil. Energy for Sustainable
Development. Vol. 17. 189–200. Bensel, T.G. and Remedio, E.M. (2002). Woodfuel Consumption and
Production in the Philippines: A Desk Study. FAO Bangkok, unpublished report. Bhattarai, T.N. (1998).
Consultant’s Paper delivered on July 1997 during the National Training Workshop on Integrating
Woodfuel Production and Marketing in Forest, Agriculture and Tree Production System, July 1997 and
published by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Environmental awareness of grade schoolers in the municipality of Zamboanga del Sur,

Philippines
ISSN Print: 2394-7500 ISSN Online: 2394-5869 Impact Factor: 5.2 IJAR 2015; 1(9): 711-715
www.allresearchjournal.com Received: 17-06-2015 Accepted: 21-07-2015 Jerry B. Superales Research
Center, J. H. Cerilles State College, Mati, San Miguel, Zamboanga del Sur, Philippines

Abstract

The awareness on environmental condition and problems are necessary to render environmental
actions. This study serves as a useful undertaking in determining the environmental awareness level of
grade schoolers emphasizing the level of vulnerability, adaptation measures, and coping mechanisms.
Respondents were the randomly chosen elementary pupils in the five selected schools representing a
municipality of Zamboanga del Sur. Standardized checklist was used as the main method to generate
data and appropriate statistical tools for the analysis. The study revealed that most of the respondents
(62%) were significantly aware on environmental issues like flooding, storm surges, and the changes of
temperature during day and night time. Respondents (78-88%) were highly vulnerable to flooding
events and variation of temperatures. They considered some coping and adaptation strategies such as
to sale livestock (66-93%), get loans from lending institutions, cooperative, and private individuals (68-
92%), receive support from family, relatives, friends, and government (54-81%), and engage in small and
alternative business (55-87%) when exposed to environmental crisis. The school authorities and
teachers should provide timely information about the current environmental condition in the locality to
reduce the risks and vulnerabilities of the elementary grade pupils to natural calamities and disasters.

Keywords: Adaptation measures, coping mechanisms, environmental awareness, grade schoolers,

vulnerability

Introduction
 Environmental threats and hazards have contributed alarming risks to humans over many years. It calls
for public attention in which Agenda 21 was rooted with emphasis on formal education, public
awareness, and training as a process by which human being and societies can reach their fullest
potential in the prevention of such risks. Climate change also triggers the issue and becomes prevalent
due to abused anthropogenic activities and nature itself. Negative effects, future potentialities of
destruction, risks, and vulnerabilities are evident in nature and society and that these existing
environmental problems are being widely acknowledged through media, conferences, campaigns,
reports, and policies to sort long term solutions (Nagra & Kaur, 2014). Environmental awareness is a
broad connotation which indisputably emphasizes the recognition of environmental problems to
mitigate solutions. A study of Oguz et al. (2010) [20] revealed respondents’ high awareness on
environmental problems but argued not an assurance to increase pro-environmental behavior. This says
education must be critical for promoting environmental protection and conservation (Nagra, 2010;
Nagra & Kaur, 2013) [18, 19] and improving the capacity of people to positive environmental
management (Littledyke, 2008) [12] necessary for the development of knowledge, understanding,
awareness, skills, attitudes, values, and commitment in the attainment of a better quality of
environment and higher quality of life (Sola, 2014) [25]. Academic subjects such as science, life science,
geography, agriculture, etc. should be considered because researches claimed their significance in the
development of foster environmental awareness (Goldman et al., 2007) [6]. Thus, teachers need to be
exposed to real environment situations to bring about change in attitude and behavior of the young
individuals and the general public as well (Murdoch, 2012) [17]. Accordingly, a recent 2014 annual
report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found out that global temperatures will
hit a staggering 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century with potentially
negative consequences for International Journal of Applied Research 2015; 1(9): 711-715 ~ 712 ~
International Journal of Applied Research humanity, ecosystems and sustainable development until such
extent that environmental problems constitute further degradation (Nagra & Kaur, 2013) [10]. While
alarmed by these threats, environmental awareness prevailed on research as to substantially recognize
attitude, values, and necessary skills on the environmental conditions to outline solutions. This meanly
affirms that environmental awareness leads to responsible citizenship behavior (Sengupta et al., 2010)
[24] and that environmentally aware persons perceive information about the state of environment and
reasons for the situation. As a result, environmental awareness leads to the achievement of
environmental literacy (Madumere, 2012) [13]. Individuals who are well-educated in environmental
views behave responsibly regarding the environment (Mobley et al., 2010) [15]. This is mostly observed
when they are exposed to an emerging crisis where the extent of adaptation and coping is closely
related to resources and assets, thus encourages the government, both public and private sectors to
support and prioritize the people’s coping mechanisms and to collaboratively do the task with ease and
confidence in improving coping strategies and adaptation measures and increasing young person’s sense
of belonging to continually help themselves and the community as well (Saful Hadi, 2010) [22]. This can
be all feasibly happened because environment has become the concern of all academicians,
intellectuals, scientists, and policymakers across the continents (Kant & Sharma, 2013) [9]. Considering
all lingering risks and threats, it could positively say that environmental awareness and understanding
among the young people are consequences of environmental education influenced by the
environmental education process. This study was conducted to determine the environmental awareness
level of grade schoolers in the municipality of Zamboanga del Sur emphasizing the level of vulnerability
and extents of coping mechanisms and adaptation measures. Thus, it is important to educate the
children on how human activities affect the environment because the solutions still lie on our attitudes,
values, actions, and the extent of o our awareness on the immediate environment we live.

2. Methodology

The study employed the descriptive research design. Twohundred twenty-five (225) elementary pupils
who were officially enrolled in SY 2014-2015 in five selected schools in Zamboanga del Sur were
considered randomly as respondents. The researcher presented clear pictures provided with some
realistic situations for the respondents to understand more on each concept to arrive at honest
responses. Statistical tools were used to determine the level of environmental awareness of the pupils
to each factor. Extents of adaptation measures and common coping mechanisms were determined and
significance differences on the levels of awareness and vulnerability using SPSS.

3. Results and Discussion Table 1: Level of environmental awareness of elementary pupils. Variable
School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4 School 5 P-value Flooding 2.66 3.00 2.94 2.16 2.84 0.05 Coastal
erosion 2.68 2.64 2.31 1.88 2.21 0.09 Storm surges 2.68 2.11 2.89 1.82 3.00 0.04 Sea level rise 2.58 2.32
2.92 2.01 2.11 0.10 Increased temperature (day) 2.47 3.00 2.56 2.73 3.00 0.04 Decreased temperature
(night) 2.50 2.23 2.31 2.15 2.79 0.05 Climate change phenomenon 2.37 2.91 2.86 2.67 2.42 0.07 Risks
and threats from natural disasters 2.66 2.91 2.94 2.06 2.68 0.05 Aggregated mean Standard deviation
Adjectival equivalent 2.57 0.12 A 2.64 0.37 A 2.72 0.28 A 2.18 0.34 NA 2.63 0.34 A Legend: Significant at
P < 0.05 Numerical Rating Adjectival Equivalent 3 – (2.33-3.00) 3 – Aware (A) 2 – (1.67-2.33) 2 – Not
Aware (NA) 1 – (1.00-1.66) 1 – Don’t Care (DC) Table 1 shows that the five schools were environmentally
aware on some of the existing ecological and weather issues like flooding events, storm surges, and
rising and declining of temperature during day and night time in the locality while sea related events and
climate change phenomenon were least recognized. The high recognition of environmental issues
implies that respondents (62%) learned lessons from the calamities they directly or vicariously
experienced. They were aware on the emergence of environmental problems in which they put
important consideration on the state of environment. This implies the necessary application of
knowledge from different disciplines to manage the environment (Arunkumar, 2012) [2]. Knowledge on
the issue is the only thing that determines environmentally aware individuals and that environmental
awareness guarantee motivation on pupils to adopt new behavior (Saful Hadi, 2010) [22]. Therefore,
environmental awareness should be deeply rooted in the education system at all levels of school
education (Khan, 2013) [11] especially more focus attention to elementary pupils (Cetin & Nicanci, 2010)
in order to protect and conserve the environment (Sundaravalli, 2012) [29]. This suggests teachers who
are active and potential change agents to properly guide pupils’ awareness so they can outline and
perform pro-active mitigation measures whenever possible calamities or risks occur in the locality. ~ 713
~ International Journal of Applied Research Table 2: Level of vulnerability of elementary pupils. Variable
School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4 School 5 P-value Flooding 2.03 2.52 2.22 2.08 2.58 0.03 Coastal
erosion 1.29 2.09 2.19 1.82 2.26 0.06 Storm surges 2.29 2.27 2.67 1.81 2.89 0.04 Sea level rise 2.18 2.23
2.00 2.16 2.37 0.08 Increased temperature (day) 2.47 2.61 2.64 2.42 2.95 0.04 Decreased temperature
(night) 2.11 2.84 2.83 2.43 3.00 0.04 Aggregated mean Standard deviation Adjectival equivalent 2.06
0.41 NA 2.43 0.28 A 2.42 0.33 A 2.12 0.27 NA 2.67 0.32 A Legend: Significant at P < 0.05 Numerical
Rating Adjectival Equivalent 3 – (2.33-3.00) 3 – Aware (A) 2 – (1.67-2.33) 2 – Not Aware (NA) 1 – (1.00-
1.66) 1 – Don’t Care (DC) Table 2 shows five schools were highly vulnerable to the lingering
environmental issues. Among the issues significantly considered by the respondents were flooding
problems, rising and declining of temperatures, and storm surges while least consideration on sea
related issues. This stresses that there is a significant possible potential vulnerability brought by natural
disasters as experienced by the elementary pupils in one of the municipalities of Zamboanga del Sur.
Thus, assessing children’s exposures and their risks are needed they can have a significant impact on
children's health and well-being (Children’s Environment Health Network, 2010). Adults must ensure
that children are protected from the environmental threats (World Health Organization, 2008) and that
every elementary teacher, being the potential change agent, should provide information to their pupils
on the effects of natural calamity or disaster for them to outline relevant preparation and remedies at
any instances leading to vulnerability or risk reduction. Table 3: Frequency distribution on coping
mechanisms of elementary pupils. Frequency (%) Variable School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4 School 5
P-value Pawned land 11 30 22 31 0 0.02 Sold land 8 27 0 17 0 0.04 Sold livestock 79 93 94 66 84 7.35E-06
Support from family, relatives, etc. 76 91 0 66 68 8.42E-06 Own initiative 87 87 81 55 68 5.03E-06 Got a
loan from a money lender 37 45 64 42 26 0.00 Received support from government 61 24 83 50 79 2.12E-
05 Got a loan from friends, etc. 82 68 92 84 68 6.45E-06 Used family savings 21 67 31 47 11 0.00
Significant (P > 0.05) Table 3 shows that the coping mechanisms significantly applied by the pupils when
exposed to a certain crisis were selling livestock, receiving assistance from family, relatives, and
government, engaging own small and alternative business, and having a loan from lending institutions.
However, they considered livestock as the most important property which could be utilized when crisis
emerged due to environmental hazards. This is very well-documented by the 2010 report of Moyo and
Swanepoel (2010) [16, 26] that livestock, at every scale from local to global, provides food security
(Stroebel et al., 2010; Ndlau, 2010; World Bank, 2009; FAO, 2009) [21, 26-28, 31] risk buffer or reduction
(Vandamme et al., 2010), and alternative income generation (Peel et al., 2010) to overcome
unpredictable worsening situations. It implies that their adaptation measures rely on harvesting, selling,
bargaining, and pawning available resources. Thus, it is important to increase the understanding of
livestock’s effect on the environment and undertake the management needed to achieve sustainable
use and development of resources (Herrero et al., 2010) [7, 14]. Close kinship and community ties were
also of significant consideration by the pupils in alleviating local crisis. This says that adults need to be
aware of a child’s risk factors in order to recognize potential problems and provide the necessary
supports. Therefore, teachers should educate pupils the clear understanding of environmental
procedures and sustainable development practices, proper and judicious utilization of resources, and
display of good values for them to support their own and as well as the society as a whole. Table 4:
Differences on the levels of environmental awareness and vulnerability. School Environmental
awareness Vulnerability School 1 2.58a 2.06b School 2 2.64a 2.43b School 3 2.72a 2.42ab School 4 2.18b
2.12ab School 5 2.63a 2.67a Note: All grand means followed by the same letter are not significantly
different at 0.01 level (DMRT) As presented in Table 4, only School 4 revealed significant difference on
environmental awareness among other schools while Schools 1, 2, and 5 for vulnerability factor. This
means that a huge number of elementary pupils (62%) in the said school were still aware while seventy-
nine percent (78-88%) of them were highly vulnerable to environmental hazards. Feedback from
teachers must be observed so that all pupils ~ 714 ~ International Journal of Applied Research have the
equal chance to increase awareness in order to realize their substantial connection to the conservation
of environment and outline mitigation measures whenever necessary. Direct exposure can be initiated
to the pupils for them to be dexterously and emotionally involved in an environmental action since
many researches showed experiential learning is effective in raising environmental awareness
(Alexandar and Poyyamoli, 2014) [1]. This imbues Environmental Education (EE) as the recognition of
appropriate and meaningful strategies to help students discover more about natural world, assemble
information and facts to solve environmental related problems, and increase their resistance to
vulnerability (Satapathy, 2010). Elementary teachers should provide necessary assessment strategies
regarding awareness and vulnerability in order to mainstream their pupils on how to behave, react, and
cope in the disastrous events leading to the intervention of causal factors (Kaur, 2013) [10]. Moreover,
the finding suggests additional factors or variables that contribute the necessary variation on the levels
of awareness and vulnerability of the respondents.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The knowledge of grade schoolers on the present environmental conditions is empirically evident based
on the results of the current study. Respondents (62%) were environmentally aware based on the
environmental conditions specified while majority (78–88%) of them was highly vulnerable which
implies that they were contingent to the environmental conditions that they exposed or experienced.
The common coping mechanisms to the occurring environmental problems were to sell livestock,
borrow money from relatives, friends, and other lending agencies, engage in own small business, and
receive support or assistance from family, relatives and from government. These were among the
coping mechanisms adapted which they think could provide remediation to unpredictable worsening
situations or when no enough resources could supply their necessity. Intense encouragement must be
considered for the respondents to be more responsive on the current environmental issues in a wider
perspective. Also, the education sector and other stakeholders in the locality should improve the
elementary science pedagogical aspects which highlight the importance of the outcome-based
education focusing on the environment so that the youth would be more aware on the status of
environment and equipped with the knowledge and skills on how to take care the Mother Earth. Further
research is recommended for a greater promotion of environmental awareness on factors or variables
that contribute significant variation of knowledge among the pupils as well as the sound intervention of
notable risks.

.Acknowledgment
I am grateful for the participation of the Grade VI pupils, teachers, and school heads of the subject
elementary schools as well as to Mr. Alfredo M. Bacay Jr., Mr. Arthur R. Panuebo, Jr. and Mr. Merham B.
Lumabo for the technical assistance during the conduct of the study.

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development based on active teaching and learning at high school level-a case study from
Puducherry and Cuddalore regions, India. Journal of Sustainability Education, 2014.
www.jsedimensions.org. 2. Arunkumar J. A study on assessment of environmental awareness
among teacher trainees in teacher training institutes. International Journal*of Research in Social
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Environmentally Responsible Behavior, the Influence of Environmental Literature
 Fireworks-related injury surveillance in the Philippines:
Trends in 2010–2014 Article · December 2015 DOI: 10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.1.01

John Bobbie Roca,ab Vikki Carr de los Reyes,b Sheryl Racelis,ab Imelda Deveraturda,ab Ma Nemia
Sucaldito,b Enrique Tayagb and Michael O’Reillyc Correspondence to John Bobbie Roca (email:
bobbie.roca@gmail.com)

F ireworks usage at New Year’s festivities is a tradition in the Philippines. It is believed that fireworks
attract good fortune and drive away evil spirits; however, fireworks also result in thousands of injuries
every year.1 The establishment of annual fireworks-related injury surveillance in the Philippines started
in 1991 involving three sentinel hospitals.2 In 2010, the online National Electronic Injury Surveillance
System (ONEISS) was set up3 and hospital staff from 50 selected sentinel hospitals were trained to
report fireworks-injury cases upon visit to emergency room. Despite a national law that bans the private
use of fireworks, there are still several fireworks-related injuries across 81 provinces in the country. The
purpose of this study is to describe the profile of fireworks-related injuries in the Philippines using the
ONEISS surveillance data from 2010 to 2014.

METHODS

This is a descriptive study investigating fireworks-related injuries using ONEISS surveillance data from 50
sentinel hospitals in the Philippines between December 2010 and January 2015. This includes 33
hospitals of the Philippines Department of Health, four local government hospitals and 13 private
hospitals (Figure 1). For our study, a case of fireworks-related injury was defined as any person who
sustained injury from fireworks in any form in the 16-day surveillance period (21 December to 5 January
of the next year) and presented to any one of the sentinel hospitals. Recorded case data included
demographics (e.g. age and sex); injured body part(s); location of incident; date of injury; and type of
fireworks used. Two-sided t-test with a significance level of 0.05 was used to compare the surveillance
data trends over 2 WPSAR Vol 6, No 4, 2015 | doi: 10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.1.014
www.wpro.who.int/wpsar Fireworks-related injury surveillance in the Philippines Roca et al time.
Notification rate by city/municipality was computed based on the 2010 population census data from the
Philippine Statistics Authority.4 Analysis was performed using Stata/SE 12.0 for Windows (StataCorp LP,
Lake Drive, TX, USA).

RESULTS

There were 4706 fireworks-related injuries in 4649 cases, involving 5076 anatomic sites in total. The
number of fireworks-related injuries in 2014 (n = 840) was 12% less than the four-year mean (n = 953) of
the period 2010–2013. This decrease was statistically significant (P = 0.02). A bi-modal peak in injury
cases was shown during the 16-day annual surveillance periods. A small peak on 25 December and a
sharp peak over a two-day period between 31 December and 1 January of the next year were observed.
This trend was consistent for all five study years (Figure 2). During the study period, blast injuries not
requiring amputation accounted for 80.6% (3792/4706) of the total injuries. A total of 696 (13.7%) eye
injuries were also reported. Amputation was required for 214 (4.5%) of the injuries. Four fireworks-
related deaths were reported (case fatality ratio: 4/4649, 0.086%) (Table 1). Ignition of illegal fireworks
accounted for 50.2% (2363/4706) of injuries. Most of the severe injuries (amputations and eye injuries)
were due to illegal 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 Number of
cases Date of injury 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Figure 2. Distribution of fireworks-related injury cases
during the 16-day surveillance period from 21 December to 5 January, the Philippines, 2010–2014
December January Figure 1. Spot map of fireworks-related injury sentinel hospitals in the Philippines (n
= 50) Disclaimer: The boundaries shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal
status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries. www.wpro.who.int/wpsar WPSAR Vol 6, No 4, 2015 | doi:
10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.1.014 3 Roca et al Fireworks-related injury surveillance in the Philippines 2014
compared with 2010–2013 in the Philippines. However, the number of more severe injuries that may
lead to life-long disabilities5 did not decline (Table 1). This may be due to consistent usage of illegal
fireworks that accounted for most of the severe injuries. The results also revealed that death from
fireworks-related injury is a rare event in the Philippines. Risk of death by road traffic injury is much
higher than that of fireworks in the Philippines.6 Fireworks injuries did not generally cause death in
another study.7 The observed sharp peak of injury cases during the New Year’s holiday period were
similar to that reported from the United States of America,7 where the celebration of Independence Day
accounted for 95% of such injuries. A high percentage of injuries have also been reported elsewhere in
association with national holidays such as Charshanbeh Soori in the Islamic Republic of Iran,5 Diwali
Festival in India,8 Greek Orthodox Easter in Greece9 and New Year’s celebration in France.10 More
cases were observed among males than females. This observation was similar to several previous
studies.5,7,8,10,11 More injuries happened on the street than at home, similar to a study from the
Islamic Republic of Iran.5 Also, our findings indicate that almost fireworks ignition. This included 100%
(4/4) of deaths and 49.1% (105/214) of amputations. (Table 2). The number of fireworks-related injury
cases was higher in males than females (80.0% in males versus 20.0% in females). Children aged 10–14
years old (24.5%) and 5–9 years old (22.0%) accounted for almost half of the cases (Table 3). Most of the
reported injuries (68.3%) occurred on streets and (57.0%) were sustained by fireworks igniters (Table 3).
The most common anatomic sites of injury were hands (43.7%), legs (21.0%) and eyes (13.7%) (Table 4).
The notification rate of fireworks-related injuries was highest in the Dagupan City (7.03 per 10 000
individuals) in Pangasinan province, followed by Mandaluyong City (5.48 per 10 000 individuals) of
Metro Manila and the municipality of Bayumbong (5.40 per 10 000 individuals) in Nueva Vizcaya
province (Table 5).

DISCUSSION

The results showed a significant decrease in the overall number of fireworks-related injuries reported in
Table 1. Types of fireworks-related injuries, the Philippines, 2010–2014 (n = 4706)* Injury type 2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 Total (%) Blast injury not requiring amputation 730 795 753 843 671 3792 (80.6)
Eye injury 135 131 137 147 146 696 (14.8) Blast injury requiring amputation 56 58 34 25 41 214 (4.5)
Death 0 3010 4 (0.1) Total 921 987 924 1016 858 4706 (100) * Cases were classified in one or more
injuries types. There were 4649 injury cases with 4706 injury types in total. Of these, 4593 cases had one
injury type, 55 had two types and 1 had three types. Table 2. Types of fireworks-related injury by
firework types, the Philippines, 2010–2014 (n = 4706)* Injury type Type of fi reworks Illegal (%) Legal (%)
Unknown (%) Total Blast injury with no complication 1948 (51.4) 1374 (36.2) 470 (12.4) 3792 Eye injury
306 (44.0) 288 (41.4) 102 (14.7) 696 Blast injury requiring amputation 105 (49.1) 82 (38.3) 27 (12.6) 214
Death 4 (100) 0 (0) 0 (0) 4 Total 2363 (50.2) 1744 (37.1) 599 (12.7) 4706 * Cases were classified in one or
more injuries types. There were 4649 injury cases with 4706 injury types in total. Of these, 4593 cases
had one injury type, 55 had two types and 1 had three types. 4 WPSAR Vol 6, No 4, 2015 | doi:
10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.1.014 www.wpro.who.int/wpsar Fireworks-related injury surveillance in the
Philippines Roca et al Table 3. Demographic characteristics of the fireworks-related injury cases, the
Philippines, 2010–2014 (n = 4649) Characteristics 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total (%) Sex Male 732 832
700 885 621 3770 (80.0) Age group (years) 0–4 46 51 41 35 43 216 (4.6) 5–9 201 224 205 215 180 1025
(22.0) 10–14 209 223 201 284 220 1137 (24.5) 15–19 89 92 102 103 81 467 (10.0) 20–24 75 92 85 85 72
409 (8.8) 25–29 72 73 65 59 56 325 (7.0) 30–34 63 60 57 55 49 284 (6.1) 35–39 54 52 32 41 38 217 (4.7)
40–44 45 31 28 29 28 161 (3.5) 45–49 23 31 31 24 25 134 (2.9) 50 or above 44 58 57 67 48 274 (5.9)
Place of occurrence Street 634 691 661 652 536 3174 (68.3) Home 275 287 237 306 286 1391 (29.9)
Other 12 9 6 39 18 84 (1.8) Involvement Igniter 541 520 450 634 503 2648 (57.0) Bystander 380 467 454
363 337 2001 (43.0) Total 921 987 904 997 840 4649 (100) Table 4. Anatomic sites of the fireworks-
related injury cases, the Philippines, 2010–2014 (n = 5076)* Anatomic site 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total (%) Hands 411 446 376 548 435 2216 (43.7) Legs 200 240 242 212 172 1066 (21.0) Eye 135 131 137
147 146 696 (13.7) Head and neck 89 75 133 103 88 488 (9.6) Arms 70 87 65 65 70 357 (7.0) Anterior
torso 21 22 32 25 20 120 (2.4) Abdomen 13 26 17 19 12 87 (1.7) Posterior torso 8 8 14 7 9 46 (0.9) Total
947 1035 1016 1126 952 5076 (100) * Case may sustain injury in one or more anatomical sites. There
were 4649 injury cases with 5076 anatomical sites in total (4460 cases had one anatomical site; 70 had
two sites; 51 had three sites; 30 had four sites; 25 had five sites; and 13 had six sites).
www.wpro.who.int/wpsar WPSAR Vol 6, No 4, 2015 | doi: 10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.1.014 5 Roca et al
Fireworks-related injury surveillance in the Philippines restrict the distribution and use of fireworks
should be considered. There were imitations in this study. Only hospitalized patients were captured by
the sentinel surveillance system. Mild cases who did not require hospitalization were missed. Also, the
sentinel sites cover only 24 out of 81 provinces. The notification rate estimates do not represent the
national fireworks-related injury burden; they only reflect the situation within these hospital catchment
areas. As this study focused more on the surveillance data analysis, evaluation for the surveillance
system was not included. Future studies are needed to reveal the system’s performance. CONCLUSION
The overall number of fireworks-related injuries declined in 2014. However, the number of severe
injuries did not decline. Public awareness campaigns should target half of fireworks injuries occurs in the
group aged 5–14 years, echoing findings in some previous studies.7,11 The number of injury cases was
found to be higher in urban than rural areas. More cases in urban areas could be attributed to the
higher population density, although we cannot find substantiating evidence in the current published
literature. We found the most affected anatomical site of fireworks injuries was hands, which was
consistent with previous studies,5,12 although one study showed that eyes followed by hands was most
common.13 Despite legislation and awareness campaigns conducted by various government agencies in
the Philippines, the main cause of firework-related death and severe injuries is illegal fireworks. This is
similar to some previous studies.5,10 In a previous study in the United States of America, stricter law
enforcement for restricting firework usage led to a sevenfold decrease in injury rates.13 Legislation
enforcement to Table 5. Fireworks-related injury incidence by city and municipality, the Philippines,
2010–2014 Region Province City/municipality Incidence (per 10 000 population) 1 Pangasinan Dagupan
City 7.03 NCR Metro Manila Mandaluyong City 5.48 2 Nueva Vizcaya Bayombong (Capital) 5.40 NCR
Metro Manila Manila City 5.08 1 Ilocos Norte Paoay 3.76 1 Ilocos Norte Batac 3.36 1 La Union San
Fernando City 3.13 NCR Metro Manila Marikina City 2.90 NCR Metro Manila Las Piñas City 2.86 2 Nueva
Vizcaya Solano 2.85 1 Pangasinan Mangaldan 2.73 1 Pangasinan San Jacinto 2.65 3 Pampanga Santo
Tomas 2.63 NCR Metro Manila Navotas 2.61 1 Pangasinan Calasiao 2.52 3 Pampanga San Fernando City
2.45 NCR Metro Manila Quezon City 2.45 NCR Metro Manila Pasig City 2.39 3 Nueva Vizcaya Villaverde
2.26 NCR Metro Manila Pateros 2.18 6 Iloilo Oton 2.06 NCR Metro Manila Valenzuela City 2.02 4A Rizal
San Mateo 2.00 6 Negros Occidental Bacolod City 1.99 NCR, National Capital Region. 6 WPSAR Vol 6, No
4, 2015 | doi: 10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.1.014 www.wpro.who.int/wpsar Fireworks-related injury
surveillance in the Philippines Roca et al content/violence-and-injury-prevention-program.html,
accessed 21 October 2015).

References

4. 2010 Census of population and housing report. Manila, Philippine Statistics Authority, 2012
(https://psa.gov.ph/content/2010- census-population-and-housing-reveals-philippine-population9234-
million, accessed 29 September 2015). 5. Vaghardoost R et al. Mortality and morbidity of
fireworksrelated burns on the annual last Wednesday of the year festival (Charshanbeh Soori) in Iran: an
11-year study. Trauma Monthly, 2013, 18:81–85. doi:10.5812/traumamon.11700 pmid:24350158 6.
DOH supports WHO-DOTC consultative meeting on road safety. Manila, Department of Health, 2015
(http://www.doh.gov.ph/ content/doh-supports-who-dotc-consultative-meeting-road-safety. html,
accessed 29 September 2015). 7. Canner JK et al. US emergency department visits for fireworks injuries,
2006–2010. Journal of Surgical Research, 2014, 190:305–311. doi:10.1016/j.jss.2014.03.066
pmid:24766725 8. Malik A et al. Five-year study of ocular injuries due to fireworks in India. International
Ophthalmology, 2013, 33:381–385. doi:10.1007/s10792-013-9714-x pmid:23315206 9. Pallantzas A et
al. Burns during Easter festivities in Greece. Annals of Burns and Fire Disasters, 2012, 25:214–216.
pmid:23766757 10. Matherson AS et al. Hand injuries due to firework devices: A series of 58 cases.
Elsevier Masson, 2014, 33:124–129. 11. Moore JX, McGwin G Jr, Griffin RL. The epidemiology of
fireworkrelated injuries in the United States: 2000–2010. Injury, 2014, 45:1704–1709.
doi:10.1016/j.injury.2014.06.024 pmid:25047335 12. Bull MJ et al. American Academy of Pediatrics:
Committee on Injury and Poison Prevention. Fireworks-related injuries to children. Pediatrics, 2001,
108:190–191. doi:10.1542/peds.108.1.190 pmid:11433076 13. Smith GA et al. The rockets’ red glare, the
bombs bursting in air: fireworks-related injuries to children. Pediatrics, 1996, 98:1–9. pmid:8668376
preventing the use of illegal fireworks since they account for the majority of fireworks-related deaths
and severe injuries. Law enforcement efforts should be directed toward eliminating importing,
distributing and use of illegal fireworks. Confl icts of interests None declared. Funding None.
Acknowledgements We appreciate the cooperation and support of the 50 sentinel hospitals together
with the DOH-ONEISS team during the surveillance period. We also thank Ms Rowena Capistrano, Dr
Althea De Guzman and Mr Ray Justin Ventura of the Philippine Field Epidemiology Training Program for
collecting the data in 2010–2013. References 1. Capistrano RJ. Final report on 2010–2011 Philippine
fireworks injury surveillance (Kampanya Konta Paputok) report. Field Epidemiology Training Program
Scientific Papers, 2012, 22(2). 2. Magboo FP. Preliminary report on firework – related injuries on the
1991 New Year’s Eve celebration. Field Epidemiology Training Program Scientific Papers, 1991, 5:51–61.
3. Violence and injury prevention program. Manila, Department.

Study of recycled plastic aluminates relative to environmental physical stresses as barrier

material
Article · January 2012

Delia B. Senoro, * Albert A. Grino, Jr., Donamel M. Saiyari and Blessie A. Basilia 1 Environmental
Engineering Graduate Program Mapua Institute of Technology Manila 1002, Philippines 2 Sustainable
Development Research Office Mapua Institute of Technology Manila 1002, Philippines 3Department of
Mathematics Mapua Institute of Technology Manila 1002, Philippines 4Department of Civil Engineering
Adamson University Manila 1000, Philippines 5Material Science Division Industrial Technology

Key Words: Barrier, environmental stresses, plastic aluminates, recycling *Corresponding author Email:
dbsenoro@mapua.edu.ph; drsenoro@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the capability of recycled plastic aluminates (RPAs) against environmental
stresses. These environmental physical stresses of concern are: water, leachate and gas vapour
permeation; thermal conductivity, and environmental stress cracking (ESC). RPAs possess properties
potential as environmental protection material. The permeation properties with respect to water, gas,
leachate, as well as thermal insulation and ESC, that would aid in concluding that RPAs as a barrier
material has not been investigated. Hence, this study was carried out with the objective to investigate
the above mentioned properties. Flexible plastic aluminium laminate trimmings (FPALTs) and variable
weight percentages of organoclay (OC) were formulated, processed, characterized and examined.
Methods of examination followed those procedures of American Society for Testing and Materials and
International Standards Organization. Fourier Transformed Infrared (FTIR) approach was used for the
investigation of ESC resistance. Results showed that impregnation of OC improved the water vapour
permeability and thermal insulation property. RPA with 10% OC is the best performing RPAs for thermal
insulation. All RPAs batches are considered water and leachate vapour barrier, gas vapour retarder, and
moderate thermal insulator. FTIR showed that all pristine RPAs, i.e., regardless of thickness and FPALT
particle size, are ESC resistant. With the above mentioned results of the study, it was concluded that
RPAs are indeed a barrier and moderate insulator material that would have potential economic value for
public consumption. However, it is recommended to conduct further investigation to fully understand
the effects of OC concentration in reduced permeability of RPAs. Also, detailed study on economic
related analysis and risk assessment is necessary to ensure environmental and public health safety.

In the Philippines, the Metro Manila Solid Waste Management Project identified that among the
sampled municipal solid waste, 50% were biodegradable, 45% were considered as recyclables, 4% were
inert materials and 1% were considered hazardous or special wastes, of which 24.7% were plastics [5] of
which 17% was identified as flexible plastics [6]. Further and according to the Flexible plastic aluminium
laminate trimming (FPALT) generators in the Philippines, 4-6 t of FPALTs were produced every plant per
month since 2004. There are about 20 FPALT generators in the Philippines in which 5 are major
generators. The Philippines has having problems on the solid wastes management especially plastics as
these are recalcitrant and hence inert that lead to the accumulation in the environment. The country
lacks sanitary landfill and not embracing the incineration technology, which could greatly help in waste
volume reduction. Hence, it is important to recycle FPALTs to reduce the amount of solid waste
generated [6]. Utilization of FPALTs would not only aid in giving solution to solid waste management
problem but help boost local economy by providing job opportunities. Simple physico-mechanical
recycling process was used in 2005 to recycle FPALTs which produced recycled plastic aluminates (RPAs,
Fig. 1). FPALT is an industry multilayer plastic waste that contains metalized aluminum. Grounded
FPALTs were impregnated with organoclay (OC) of variable weight percentages to produce RPAs [6]. OC
is a three-layered silicate of montmorillonite nanosized particles extracted from calcium bentonite
deposit of Albay, Philippines [7]. This OC is similar to what has been described in the work of Shih et al.
[8]. Initial investigation of its physical, chemical, mechanical properties, optimum thickness, surface
morphology [3,6], and structural integrity [3,5] was carried out. Previous studies of RPA showed that
surface morphology of pristine RPA (100% FPALTs) is homogenous (Fig. 2a). However, other RPA batches
impregnated with OC showed uneven distribution of OC and aluminum flakes (Fig. 3). These findings will
be addressed in RPA development process. Further, it is emphasized that focus of this paper is not on
the composition of OC. In the past studies, the water vapour, gas vapour and leachate permeability,
thermal insulation capability, and environmental stress cracking resistance (ESCR) were not examined.
These material properties are called physico-mechanical which is significant in identifying whether RPAs
are indeed barrier materials. Hence, this study was carried out with the objective to investigate the
water, gas, and leachate vapour transmission rate, thermal insulation, and ESCR capability as barrier
material. This study will validate if RPAs are indeed a barrier material. There is a need to investigate
these properties as moisture addition and leachate recirculation practices are popular in landfill system
[9] where one of the potential application areas of RPA is the landfill liner. In the Philippines, one of the
typical materials . FPAL RPA Fig. 4. RPA specimen before and after ESCR test. Senoro et al., Sustain.
Environ. Res., 22(6), 387-394 (2012) 389 before after (a) (b) two specimens (m), Q and Q are the electric
signal, 1 2 T is the gradient temperature (K) and S is the calibra- cal tion factor. Statistical method was
performed with the Analysis of Variance procedure using Matlab R2007b software. Dunnett's procedure
(P < 0.05) was used to detect differences between each treatment mean and the control. On the other
hand, Friedman test was used as a non-parametric test for the data which do not follow the normal
distribution. Another set of RPAs (all pristine, 100% FPALTs) were produced using the same recycling
process; formulating with variable thickness and different FPALT particle size produced six batches. This
type of sample batch was prepared to determine if thickness and particle size affect the ESCR capability
of RPA. These six batches of RPA specimen were then conditioned for ESCR analysis (Fig. 4) in
accordance to ASTM D1693 [17]. The equipment used for this process was Yih Der Water Bath ESC
resistance apparatus with temperature set at 50 °C. The ESCR test was carried out by D&L Industries,
Canlubang, Laguna, Philippines. FTIR test followed after ESCR test using the attenuated total reflectance
by Perkin-Elmer Spectrum 100 FTIR spectrometer. This was conducted in a controlled room temperature
and relative humidity. . . MATERIALS AND METHODS (1) where x and x are the change in thickness of the
1 2 ë = S QQ( X - Q ) cal 1 2 2 1 T(X - Q ) 1 2 used as barrier on geotechnical application is high density
polyethylene as it offers good weathering resistance [10]. This property relates to endurance and
survivability which corresponds to the ESCR of a material. Hence, it is significant to investigate how RPAs
respond with vapour and thermal permeation. cause premature failure through developing a leak.
Fourier Transformed Infrared (FTIR) could provide evidence in this study on ESCR capability as the
presence of carbonyl group in the material indicates polymer degradation. Carbonyl groups are
postulated to be the main light-absorbing species responsible for the photochemical induced
degradation reactions of polymers [11]. This act is the main parameter of stress in photo degradation in
combination with the effects of temperature, moisture and oxygen. Therefore, the conduct of ESCR,
FTIR, water vapor transmission rate (WVTR), gas vapor transmission rate (GVTR), leachate vapor
transmission rate (LVTR), and thermal conductivity ( ) test for a material is necessary.

RPAs were reproduced following a simple physico-mechanical recycling process, i.e., shredding,
weighing, melt intercalation, compression molding, and formulation as described in Senoro and Peralta
[6]. Formulation of five batches were as follows: (1) 100% FPALs; (2) 99% FPALs with 1% OC; (3) 97%
FPALs with 3% OC; (4) 95% FPALs with 5% OC; and (5) 90% FPALs with 10% OC. Investigation on WVTR
and GVTR as well as thermal insulation was performed in reproduced RPAs. Test method for the
investigation of WVTR, and LVTR was in accordance with ASTME96 [12] using the test equipment model
PERME W3/030, and GVTR followed the ASTM D1434 [13] with test equipment model PERME® VAC-V1.
The WVTR and LVTR tests were performed under controlled relative humidity of 90% and a temperature
of 38 °C. The GVTR test was done at 23 °C and relative humidity of 0%. The gases used in GVTR test were
O , N , CO and air. Water, leachate, 2 2 2 and gas permeability were calculated using equations described
in the book of Koerner [14]. WVTR, LVTR, and GVTR tests were conducted at Jinan, China. The test
method for the investigation of insulating property was in accordance with ASTM C518 [15] and ISO
8301 [16] and conducted in London. Fox 50 apparatus was employed for calculating thermal
conductivity ( ) value using Eq. 1 below. . RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The following sub-sections describe
the physicomechanical capability of RPAs relative to WVTR, LVTR, GVTR, thermal insulation, and ESCR
using FTIR approach. 1. Permeance of WVTR and LVTR The values of WVTR ranged from 1.12 to 4.65 g -2
-1 m d as shown in Table 1a. These values are comparable to other thermoplastic materials such as PET
= 3.28, polystyrene = 5.18, LDPE = 7.9 [17] and PVC = -2 -1 4.4 g m d [14]. ASTM requires that the
permeance rating for water vapour retarder should be 1 perm or less. This shows that the impregnation
of OC improves the impermeability property of RPA; however, limited to 3 wt%. This result is similar to
the work of Yano et al. [18] and Park et al. [19] which showed that water vapour permeability values of
polymer/clay nanocomposite decreased with increase in clay content or in- . . Table 1a. WVTR and
Permeance of RPAs, thickness = 3 mm Table 1b. Gas Permeability of RPAs, thickness = 3 mm Table 1c.
Rate of burning and flammability characteristics of RPAs, thickness = 3 mm RPA Batch No. 1 2 3 4 5 RPA
Formulation 100% FPALTs & 0% OC 99% FPALTs & 1% OC 97% FPALTs & 3% OC 95% FPALTs & 5% OC
90% FPALTs & 10% OC WVT 2.21 1.25 1.12 4.65 2.03 -2 -1 R (g m d ) Permeance (Perms) 0.071 0.040
0.036 0.150 0.065 RPA Batch No. 1 2 3 4 5 -1 Rate of Burning (mm min ) 52 ± 2.0 47 ± 1.0 39 ± 1.0 34 ±
0.8 34 ± 0.7 -3 -1 Specific Heat Capacity (MJ m K ) 2.39 2.34 2.38 2.31 2.38 Burning Characteristics
Melting and dripping Melting and dripping Dripping slowly Charring Charring Oxygen (O )2 5.1 0.8 0.6 0.9
6.7 Nitrogen (N )2 5.5 0.2 0.2 6.5 1.2 Carbon dioxide (CO )2 5.2 4.4 2.2 4.3 29 Air 0.8 0.6 1.9 1.8 2.3 Gas
Permeability (in barrer unit) 1 2 3 4 5 crease in aspect ratio of the clay. However, for higher OC wt%, the
WVTR value increased significantly. This is attributed to the agglomeration of the clay and the presence
of aluminum flakes in the polymer matrix. In addition, the abrupt increase of the WVTR values was
associated with the clay in Batch 4 which may not homogenously mixed with the polymer matrix as
shown in Fig. 3. This result is associated with the reduction of surface area of OC when there is an
increased organic content of organobentonite [7]. Figure 3 shows SEM of several RPA Batches with
magnification of 2000x. -2 The result of the LVTR test of RPA was 0.33 g m -1 d for 2.36 mm FPALT
particle size with 1.0 mm thick. This gave a perm rating of 0.0018. The data considered RPA as a leachate
vapour barrier material based on ASTM criteria. 2. Gas Vapour Permeance of GVTR Results of the GVTR
tests presented on Table 1b show the following: Batch 4 which has . . . . the best performing RPA against
O transmission is 2 the batch with 3% OC impregnation. Reduction of O transmission through RPA with
3% OC impreg- 2 nation was 88%. However, 10% OC impregnation enhanced O transmission by 32%. 2
the best performing RPA against CO transmission 2 . 390 Senoro et al., Sustain. Environ. Res., 22(6), 387-
394 (2012) Analysis of FTIR data was performed using the Spectrum version 5.0.1 software in the
infrared spectra of the material over the wavenumber from 400 to 4000 -1 cm . The FTIR test was
carried out in the Physical Laboratory of Mapua Institute of Technology, Manila, Philippines.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the investigation carried out, the results show that RPA is considered as water vapour barrier
material as it yields a permeance range of 0.036 to 0.15 perms. The best performing batch relative to
WVT is the RPA with 3% OC impregnation. On the other hand, the GVTR test on O , N , CO and air results
in values 2 2 2 ranging from 0.18 to 29 Barrer which makes RPA as gas retarder material. Investigation
shows that RPA with 3% OC impregnation is the best performing barrier material for O , N , CO .
However, Batch 2 2 2 2 (RPA with 1% OC impregnation) is the best performing barrier material for air
and second by pristine RPA. It is further concluded that impregnation of 10% OC not only enhances the
CO transmission into 459% 2 but becomes the best performing RPA material as fire retardant. The
average of the RPA material ranged -1 -1 from 0.21 to 0.37 W m K which is 2- to 3-fold higher than the
common insulating materials. The impregnation of OC into the RPA improves the resistance of pristine
RPA to fire and acts as an agent to make the RPA a flame retardant material such as RPA Batch 5. This is
a property necessary for public dwelling use. Hence, it can be concluded that RPAs impregnated with OC
are materials that perform as fire retardant, as barrier, and moderate insulator materials. However, the
physical and chemical processes affecting RPAs' capability as barrier material, when impregnated with
OC, against air, O , CO , water, and leachate are not suffi- 2 2 ciently understood. Hence, it is required to
conduct further study focusing on the influenced of OC concentration in the processes that affect the
transport mechanism in RPA. The test results of ESCR and FTIR conducted on six batches of pristine RPAs
show that all batches are resistant to ESC with Batch 6, the least particle FPAL size and thickness and the
most resistant to ESC. This study further concludes that FTIR approach in investigating the ESCR
capability of a material could provide sufficient evidence of the presence or absence of degradation in
the material. Hence, the general conclusive statement is that RPAs are water and leachate vapour
barrier, gas vapour retarder, moderate and thermal insulator. RPAs, regardless of thickness and FPALT
particle sizes, have significant stress cracking resistivity

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