September 7, 2019 EE3110 Probability Foundations for Electrical Engineers

Tutorial #4 Instructors: Krishna Jagannathan, Avhishek Chatterjee

1. Let P be a probability over Ω. For a fixed event B ⊂ Ω define a new map:

P (. ∩ B)
PB (.) B ,
P(B)

where, P(B) > 0.

For an event C ⊂ Ω which satisfies P(B ∩ C) > 0, show that:
(a) PB (A|C) = P(A|B ∩ C)
(b) P(A ∪ D|C ∩ B) = P(A|C ∩ B) + P(D|C ∩ B) − P(A ∩ D|C ∩ B).

Solution:
(a) We have,

PB (A ∩ C)
PB (A|C) = .
PB (C)

This is by the definition of conditional probability for any probability map (the
map here being PB , instead of P, as is usually the case).
It is well defined, as,
P(B ∩ C)
PB (C) = P(C|B) = >0
P(B)

by the assumption. Now, per definition of PB , we have,

P(A ∩ C ∩ B)
PB (A ∩ C) = P(A ∩ C|B) =
P(B)

Putting these two facts together and by the definition of conditional probability,

PB (A ∩ C) P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
= = P(A|B ∩ C),
PB (C) P(B ∩ C)

as required.

(b) For the event E = C ∩ B consider a probability map defined analogously to that
for the even B a above, namely,

P(. ∩ E) P(. ∩ (B ∩ C))

PB∩C (.) = PE (.) B = .
P(E) P(B ∩ C)

Once it is (easily) verified that PE (.) = PB∩C (.) satisfies the axioms of probability,
the result is immediate.

2. Consider a coin that comes up heads with probability p and tails with probability 1 −
p. Let qn be the probability that after n independent tosses, there have been an even
 number of heads. Derive a recursion that relates qn to qn−1 , and solve this recursion to
establish the formula
(1 + (1 − 2p)n )
qn =
2

Solution: Using the given probability model for the coin toss, probability of having
observed an even number of tosses after n tosses is the probability the sum of the
probabilities that:
(a) the nth toss is a head and the probability of having seen an odd number of heads
after n − 1 tosses. Denote this probability by A1 . Then,

A1 = p(1 − qn−1 ).

(b) an even number of tosses are observed after n − 1 tosses and probabiltiy of the
nth toss happens to be a tail. Denote this probability to be A2 . Then,

A2 = (1 − p)qn−1 .

Thus, the required recurrence relation is

qn = A1 + A2 = p(1 − qn−1 ) + (1 − p)qn−1 = p + (1 − 2p)qn−1 .

A family of solutions of a recursion is of the form,

c1 + c2 xn ,

for some constants c1 , c2 and x.

Thus, we have,
c1 + c2 xn = p + (1 − 2p)(c1 + c2 xn−1 ).
Thus we have,
1
c1 = p + (1 − 2p)c1 =⇒ c1 = ,
2
and,
c2 xn = (1 − 2p)c2 xn−1 ,
which yields, c2 arbitrary provided x = (1 − 2p). Solving for c2 requires an initial
condition which is readily available in,

q0 = 1.

This yields, c2 = 12 . Thus,

(1 + (1 − 2p)n )
qn = ,
2
as required.

3. Let A and B be independent events. Use the definition of independence to prove the
following:
(a) The events A and BC are independent.

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 (b) The events AC and BC are independent.

Solution:
(a) Write A as a union of disjoint events as follows,

A = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ BC ).

By the additivity axiom, and the independence of A and B, we have,

P(A) = P(A ∩ B) + P(A ∩ BC ) = P(A)P(B) + P(A ∩ BC ).

Thus,
P(A ∩ BC ) = P(A)(1 − P(B)) = P(A)P(BC ),
as required.

(b) Write BC as the union of disjoint events as follows,

BC = (BC ∩ A) ∪ (BC ∩ AC )

By the additivity axiom, and the independence of A and BC , from the previous
result, we have,

P(BC ) = P(BC ∩ A) + P(BC ∩ AC ) = P(BC )P(A) + P(BC ∩ AC ).

Thus,
P(BC ∩ AC ) = P(BC )(1 − P(AC )) = P(BC )P(AC ),
as required.

4. Let A, B and C be independent events, with P(C) > 0. Show that A and B are condition-
ally independent given C, that is,
P(A ∩ B|C) = P(A|C)P(B|C).

Solution: By definition and that A, B and C be independent events, we have,

P(A ∩ B ∩ C) P(A)P(B)P(C)
P(A ∩ B|C) = = = P(A)P(B).
P(C) P(C)

Again from the independence of the events we have, P(A) = P(A|C) and P(B) =
P(B|C). Thus,
P(A ∩ B|C) = P(A|C)P(B|C),
as required.

5. Assume that the events A1 , A2 , A3 , A4 are independent and that P(A3 ∩ A4 ) > 0. Show
that
P(A1 ∪ A2 | A3 ∩ A4 ) = P(A1 ∪ A2 ).

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 Solution: We have
P((A1 ∪ A2 ) ∩ (A3 ∩ A4 ))
P(A1 ∪ A2 | A3 ∩ A4 ) =
P(A3 ∩ A4 )
P((A1 ∩ A3 ∩ A4 ) ∪ (A2 ∩ A3 ∩ A4 ))
=
P(A3 ∩ A4 )
P(A1 ∩ A3 ∩ A4 ) + P(A2 ∩ A3 ∩ A4 ) − P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ A4 )
=
P(A3 ∩ A4 )
(P(A1 ) + P(A2 ) − P(A1 ∩ A2 )) P(A3 ∩ A4 )
= (by independence)
P(A3 ∩ A4 )
= P(A1 ∪ A2 ).

6. Twenty distinct cars park in the same parking lot every day. Ten of these cars are India-
made while the other ten are foreign-made. The parking lot has exactly twenty spaces,
all in a row, so the cars park side by side. However, the drivers have varying schedules,
so the position any car might take on a certain day is random.
(a) In how many ways can the cars line up?
(b) What is the probability that on a given day, the cars will park in such a way that they
alternate (no two India-made are adjacent and no two foreign-made are adjacent)?

Solution:
(a) Since there are 20 distinct cars, there are 20! ways of lining them up.

(b) Here we make the (reasonable?) assumption that all the 20! possible ways of
lining up the cars are equally likely.
Assume the spaces are numbered as {1, 2, ..., 20}. If we want the cars to alternate,
the India-made cars should occupy either all the odd-numbered spaces or all
the even-numbered spaces. In either case, the number of ways of lining up the
cars is 10!×10!, since we have to arrange the 10 India-made and 10 foreign-made
cars in the 10 slots available. So the total number of ways is 2×10!×10! (once for
odd-numbered spaces for India-made cars and once for even-numbered spaces
for India-made cars). This gives us the probability that cars park such that they
alternate as:
2 × 10! × 10! 2
= 20
.
20!
10

7. An academic department offers 8 lower level courses: {L1 , L2 , . . . , L8 } and 10 higher level
courses: {H1 , H2 , . . . , H10 }. A valid curriculum consists of 4 lower level courses and 3
higher level courses.
(a) How many different curricula are possible?
(b) Suppose that {H1 , . . . H5 } have L1 as prerequisite, and {H6 , . . . , H10 } have L2 and L3
as prerequisites, i.e., any curricula which involve, say, one of {H1 , . . . , H5 } must also
include L1 . How many different curricula are there?

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 Solution:
(a) For making a valid curriculum, we need to select 4 lower level courses out of
8 and 3 higher level courses out of 10. So this gives us the total number of
different curricula as 84 × 10



3 .

(b) The number of valid curricula can be divided into the following parts:
Case 1: When only L1 is part of the curriculum and L2 , L3 are not part of the
curriculum.
In this case, we need to select 3 more lower level courses from {L4 , . . . , L8 } and 3
higher level courses from {H1 , . . . , H5 }. So the total number of valid curricula in
this case is 53 × 53 .

Case 2: When L1 , L2 are part of the curriculum but not L3 .

In this case, we need to select 2 more lower level courses from {L4 , . . . , L8 } and 3
higher level courses from {H1 , . . . , H5 }. So the total number of valid curricula in
this case is 52 × 53 .

Case 3: When L1 , L3 are part of the curriculum but not L2 .

Same as case 2, we get 52 × 53 .

Case 4: When L1 , L2 , L3 are all part of the curriculum.

Here, we need to choose 1 more lower level course from {L4 , . . . , L8 } and 3 higher
level courses from {H1 , . . . , H10 }. So the number of valid curricula is 51 × 10



3 .
Case 5: When L2 , L3 are part of the curriculum but not L1 .
Here we need to choose 2 more lower level courses from {L4 , . . . , L8 } and 3 higher
level courses from {H6 , . . . , H10 }. So the number of valid curricula is 52 × 53 .




2
Adding all the cases up, we get the total number of valid curricula as 4 × 53 +
5 × 10


3 .

8. We draw the top 7 cards from a well-shuffled standard 52-card deck. Find the proba-
bility that:
(a) The 7 cards include exactly 3 aces.
(b) The 7 cards include exactly 2 kings.
(c) The probability that the 7 cards include exactly 3 aces or exactly 2 kings or both.
A standard 52-card deck has four “suites”: clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades. Each
suite includes an ace, a king, a queen, a jack, and ranks two to ten, making a total of 13
cards per suite.

Solution: As we draw the top 7 cards, the outcomes of our experiment belong to the
following sample space:

Ω = {ω | ω is a permutation of 7 distinct cards}.

Since the deck is well-shuffled, we will assume that all the outcomes of Ω are equally
likely. The number of elements in Ω, |Ω| is equal to 52


7 × 7!. For any event C ⊂ Ω,

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the probability is given by

|C|
P(C) = ,
|Ω|
since all outcomes are equally likely.
(a) Let

A = {ω | ω is permutation of 7 cards with exactly 3 aces}.

Since there are 4 aces, 3 aces can be selected from them in 43 ways. We can

select 3 places out of 7 in 73 ways and arrange the selected cards in 3! ways.


The remaining 4 places have to be filled by the 48 non-ace cards which can be
done in 48


4 × 4! ways. This gives us,
! ! !
4 7 48
|A| = × 3! × × × 4!,
3 3 4

and
4
7
48
4
48
7

3 × 3! × 3 × 4 × 4! 3 × 4 3 × 45
P(A) = 52

= 52

= 52

.
7 × 7! 7 4

(b) Let

B = {ω | ω is permutation of 7 cards with exactly 2 kings}.

Going through similar arguments as the previous case, we get

4
7
48
4
48
7
45

2 × 2! × 2 × 5 × 5! 2 × 5 2 × 2
P(B) = 52

= 52

= 52

.
7 × 7! 7 4

(c) Consider

A ∩ B = {ω | ω is permutation of 7 cards with exactly 3 aces and 2 kings}.

We can select the 3 aces in 43 ways and the 2 kings in 42 ways and the remaining

2 places have to be filled by the remaining 44 cards, which can happen in 44

2
ways. So we get
4
4
44

3 × 2 × 2 × 7!
P(A ∩ B) = 52

7 × 7!

We can now compute the probability of the event A ∪ B as

4
48
4
48
4
4
44

3 4 + 2 5 − 3 2 2
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = 52

.
7

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