INTRODUCTION TO

TOURISM Seminars
Kir Kuščer

TRENDS IN WORLD
TOURISM

Trends in World Tourism

(not including financial
crisis)
Factors which influence the trends in
World
tourism:

• Globalization (language, culture,

currency exchange)
 • Aging population
• Family “size”
• Education (increasing)
• Short vacations
• Critical attitude towards price –
quality ratio
• Different interests and hobbies
• Use of the internet
• Low cost transportation (air and
train)

(Source: UNWTO, 2007)

International tourism
challenged
by deteriorating global
economy
• 2008 – a year of turbulence and
contrasts
 • the growth in international tourist
arrivals has slowed drastically
worldwide
• extremely volatile and unfavourable
global economy:
o credit crunch,

o the widening financial crisis,

o commodity and oil price rises,

o and massive exchange rate

fluctuations.

World: Inbound Tourism

International Tourist
Arrivals
Source: UNWTO, 2009

International Tourist
Arrivals, monthly evolution
(World, million)
Source: UNWTO, 2009
International Tourist
Arrivals, monthly evolution
(World, % change)
Source: UNWTO, 2009

Quick overview of key

trends
• In 2008, international tourist arrivals
reached 924 million,
up 16 million over 2007, representing a
growth of 2%.
• As a result of the extremely volatile
world economy, tourism demand
slowed significantly through the year.
• Europe experienced negative
growth in the last six months of 2008
(-3%)
• For the year as a whole, all regions
were positive except Europe
 • In Europe the flat results reflect the
negative performances of Northern
and Western Europe, the only
subregions with Oceania to show a
decline over 2007, and the
stagnation of destinations in
Southern and Mediterranean
Europe.
• The experience of past years
suggests that the growth of receipts
tends to follow fairly closely that of
arrivals (data on receipts is not yet
available

Trends in the Tourism

Sector (World)
Source: UNWTO, 2008

Trends in the Tourism

Sector (World)
Source: UNWTO, 2008
Trends in the Tourism
Sector
Source: UNWTO, 2007

Trends in the Tourism

Sector
Source: UNWTO, 2008
Source: UNWTO, 2009

Trends in the Tourism

Sector
International Tourist
Arrivals (% change over
same period of the
previous year)
Source: UNWTO, 2009
International Tourist Arrivals, World
(% change over same period of the
previous year)
Source: UNWTO, 2009

Trends in the Tourism

Sector
Source: UNWTO, 2007

Trends in the Tourism

Sector
Source: UNWTO, 2008

Trends in the Tourism

Sector
Source: UNWTO, 2008

Trends in the Tourism

Sector
Source: UNWTO, 2008
Outbound Tourism
Source: UNWTO, 2007

Outbound Tourism
Source: UNWTO, 2007

Outbound Tourism
Source: UNWTO, 2007

Outbound Tourism
Source: UNWTO, 2008

Outbound Tourism
(international tourism
expenditure – revised
data)
Source: UNWTO, 2009
International tourism
challenged
by deteriorating global
economy
• The slowdown of traffic through the
year is confirmed by the air transport
data as reported by IATA and
various regional air transport
associations.

• Hotel performance data for the 11

months of the year as reported by
Deloitte corroborate these trends.

UNWTO Panel of
Tourism Experts
Source: UNWTO, 2009

Trends and prospects

• “It seems that every corner of the
world has at last been drawn into the
vortex of recession,” said the
Organisation for Economic
Cooperation & Development
(OECD).

• Tourism has proved incredibly

resilient in the past and, if the
downturn is expected to be dramatic,
the recovery could prove to be even
more so.

• Rising unemployment in at least

some, and perhaps many, important
markets will create a lagging burden
on tourism when economies do pick
up.

• The current wave of bankruptcies

and ‘consolidations’ in the tourism
 and aviation sectors is taking out
capacity which cannot be instantly
restored.

• the current downturn does not

impact so much on the desire to
travel. The major concern is about
whether one can afford to travel,

Trends and prospects

• Travel to destinations closer to
home, including domestic travel, is
expected to be favoured as against
long-haul travel;
• Segments such as visiting friends
and relatives (VFR), repeat visitors,
as well as special interest and
independent travellers, are expected
to be more resilient;
• The decline in average length of
stay, as well as expenditure, is
 projected to be more pronounced
than the decline in overall volume;
• Destinations offering value for
money and with favourable
exchange rates have an advantage
as price becomes a key issue;
• Late booking is expected to increase
as uncertainty leads consumers to
delay decision making and wait for
special offers;
• Companies will and should
concentrate on containment of costs
in order to maintain their competitive
edge;
• It is more critical than ever before to
work closely together in the tourism
value chain – between the public and
private sectors, and destinations and
the travel trade.
Forecast International Tourist Arrivals,
2009
(% change over same period of the
previous year)
Source: UNWTO, 2009

Forecast of growth in
International Tourist
Arrivals
Source: UNWTO, 2009

UNWTO response
• Supporting the sector’s immediate
response through its recently
established Tourism Resilience
Committee to strengthen market
intelligence and best practice
sharing.
• Advocating tourism’s priority
inclusion in general economic
stimulation measures.
• Advancing tourism in the new
Green Economy as a sector that can
 deliver on smart growth, intelligent
infrastructure and clean energy jobs.
• Our message will continue to be that
this is a highly resilient sector that
will return to strong growth when the
overall economic crisis abates and
one that can contribute more than
others to poverty alleviation, climate
response and a Green New Deal.

Trends in the tourism

Sector in Europe (not
including financial crisis)
Factors that influenced the trends in
tourism
sector in Europe:
• Rise of the tourist arrivals from China
• Rise of the price of oil (now its
fluctuating), strong currency (Euro
• “3S” tourism - still leading
 • Customer behaviour – short breaks,
individual trips, price elasticity
• Low cost transportation in Europe
• Rise of the accommodation quality
(hotels with 4 and 5*)
• On-line reservation system became
important element of the destination
marketing
• Stimulation of collaboration between
public, private sector and civil society

(Source: UNWTO, 2007)

Europe: Inbound
Tourism
International Tourist
Arrivals (million)
Source: UNWTO, 2009.
Trends in the Tourism
Sector in Europe
Source: UNWTO, 2007

Trends in the Tourism

Sector in Europe
Source: UNWTO, 2008

Trends in Europe
Source: UNWTO, 2009.

International Tourist
Arrivals (% change over
same period of the
previous year)
Source: UNWTO, 2009.

Trends in Europe
 • strong performance of Eurostar over
the past 12 months
• increase of over 10% in both its
ticket sales and passenger numbers,
• increasing numbers of domestic
travellers in Spain

Trends in the Tourism

Sector in Europe
Source: UNWTO, 2007

Trends in the Tourism

Sector in Europe
Source: UNWTO, 2008

UNWTO Panel of
Tourism Experts
(Europe)
Source: UNWTO, 2009
Prospects for Europe
• The prospects for European tourism
in 2009 seem very gloomy
• Increasing awareness that the
current economic problems
may persist into 2010
• A shift towards more local
destinations, from long-haul to
short-haul travel
• Travellers are trading down
• The mid-range consumers are going
downmarket. There are many reports
of a revival of inexpensive all-
inclusive packages
• The downturn has brought many
reports of heavy discounting, but this
may not persist: operations may not
be viable at these prices with lower
volumes
 • Airfares have not been falling back
as quickly as international oil prices
(hedging against oil prices, costs
associated with lower load factors)
(Source: UNWTO, 2009)