FinalFullFeasibilityStudy CwsbWsmp4th PDF

REPUBLIC OF KENYA COAST WATER
MINISTRY OF WATER SERVICES BOARD

AND IRRIGATION (CWSB)
Water and Sanitation Service Improvement Project (WaSSIP)

Loan Nos.: IDA 4376-KE and CKE3010-1
Consultancy Services for Water Supply Master Plan for

Mombasa and Other Towns within Coast Province
Final Full Feasibility Study
May 2013 (modified ver. 4 November 2013)
in association with
Contents
Page
Executive Summary
1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Background .............................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Objectives of the Present Report .............................................................................. 1
1.3 Previous Reports and Related Studies ...................................................................... 2
1.4 Structure of the Present Report................................................................................. 3
2. POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS ......................................................... 5
2.1 General ..................................................................................................................... 5
2.2 Population Projections .............................................................................................. 5
2.3 Water Demand Projections ....................................................................................... 7
2.4 Water Demand – Urban and Rural ........................................................................... 8
2.4.1 Water Demand of the 20 Main Urban Centres ........................................... 8
2.4.2 Water Demand of Rural Bulk Consumers.................................................. 9
2.4.3 Target Water Demand for CWSB ............................................................ 10
2.4.4 Demand Management .............................................................................. 10
3. CURRENT AND POTENTIAL WATER RESOURCES ........................................................... 13
3.1 Current Water Resources ........................................................................................ 13
3.1.1 Mzima Springs ......................................................................................... 13
3.1.2 Baricho Wellfield ..................................................................................... 14
3.1.3 Total Production of the Current Water Systems ...................................... 18
3.2 Water Resources Management ............................................................................... 18
3.2.1 Overview .................................................................................................. 18
3.2.2 Existing Situation ..................................................................................... 19
3.2.3 WRMA Catchment Strategies .................................................................. 26
3.2.4 Principles of Water Resources Management ........................................... 28
3.2.5 Proposed Actions...................................................................................... 30
3.3 Potential of Surface Water Resources .................................................................... 31
3.3.1 Mkurumudzi Dam .................................................................................... 31
3.3.2 Tana River ................................................................................................ 32
3.3.3 Mwache Dam ........................................................................................... 33
3.3.4 Rare Dam.................................................................................................. 41
3.4 Potential of Groundwater Resources ...................................................................... 45
3.5 Potential of Deep Groundwater .............................................................................. 46
3.5.1 Overview and Preliminary Analysis ........................................................ 46
3.5.2 Recommendations: General Exploratory Plan ......................................... 49
3.6 Total Potential of Water Resources ........................................................................ 50
4. PROPOSED STRATEGIES AND SCENARIOS ....................................................................... 52
4.1 Defining Strategies for Development ..................................................................... 52
4.2 Coverage of the Master Plan .................................................................................. 53
4.3 Meeting the Potential Demand ............................................................................... 53
4.4 Water Supply Scenarios for the Interconnected Bulk System................................ 56
4.4.1 Scenario B1 .............................................................................................. 58
4.4.2 Scenario B1.1 ........................................................................................... 62
4.4.3 Scenario B3 .............................................................................................. 66
4.4.4 Scenario B5 .............................................................................................. 71
4.4.5 Scenario C2 .............................................................................................. 75
4.5 Water Supply to Lamu and Tana Counties............................................................. 79
Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

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Contents (cont.)
4.5.1 General ..................................................................................................... 79

4.5.2 Supply Alternatives .................................................................................. 79
4.5.3 Discussion ................................................................................................ 80
4.6 Water Supply to Taveta Area ................................................................................. 81
4.6.1 Overview .................................................................................................. 81
4.6.2 Water Supply Alternatives ....................................................................... 82
4.6.3 Discussion ................................................................................................ 85
4.7 Water Supply to Remote Rural Areas .................................................................... 86
4.7.1 General ..................................................................................................... 86
4.7.2 Rainfall Roof Harvesting ......................................................................... 86
4.7.3 Surface Catchment Systems ..................................................................... 88
4.7.4 Water Pan for Runoff Water Harvesting .................................................. 88
4.7.5 Sand Dam ................................................................................................. 90
5. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .......................................................................... 92
5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 92
5.2 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 92
5.3 General Assumptions for the Evaluation ................................................................ 94
5.4 Cost Estimates ........................................................................................................ 95
5.5 Stand-Alone Analyses of Projects .......................................................................... 98
5.6 Financial Analysis ................................................................................................ 100
5.6.1 General ................................................................................................... 100
5.6.2 Total Investment ..................................................................................... 100
5.6.3 Average Capital Cost per m3 .................................................................. 100
5.6.4 Cost of Energy per m3 ............................................................................ 101
5.6.5 Cost of O&M per m3 .............................................................................. 101
5.6.6 Total Cost of Water per m3 .................................................................... 101
5.6.7 NPV and IRR ......................................................................................... 102
5.7 Economic Analysis ............................................................................................... 103
5.7.1 General ................................................................................................... 103
5.7.2 Cost of Energy per m3 ............................................................................ 104
5.7.3 Cost of O&M per m3 .............................................................................. 104
5.7.4 Total Cost of Water per m3 .................................................................... 104
5.7.5 ENPV and EIRR..................................................................................... 105
5.8 Financial & Economic Analysis for Lamu Area .................................................. 106
5.9 Analysis of Supply Options for Taita-Voi Area ................................................... 109
6. MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS ......................................................................................... 111
6.1 Background .......................................................................................................... 111
6.2 Results .................................................................................................................. 112
7. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERATIONS .......................................................... 115
7.1 Significance of the Development of the Bulk Water Supply System on the
WSP's Water Distribution Networks .................................................................... 115
7.1.1 Overview ................................................................................................ 115
7.1.2 Impact on Water Pressures ..................................................................... 115
7.1.3 Impact on Water Losses ......................................................................... 116
7.1.4 Effect of Pressure on Pipe Bursts ........................................................... 116
7.1.5 Effect on the Mode of Water Supply ..................................................... 117
7.1.6 System Operation ................................................................................... 117
7.2 Significance of the Bulk Water Supply System on the Negative Effect of
Sewage Volumes .................................................................................................. 118

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Contents (cont.)
7.2.1
Increase in Generated Wastewater Quantities ........................................ 118
7.2.2
Long-Term Planning of the Wastewater Collection System .................. 118
8. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................... 120

List of Annexes
Annex 1 – The MRS Model
Annex 2 – Financial and Economic Analysis
Annex 3 – Basic Unit Costs
Annex 4 – Geotechnical Survey of Proposed Dams
Annex 5 – Summary of Groundwater Model Runs
Annex 6 – Mwache Reservoir Operation Model
Annex 7 – Mwache Reservoir Operation Model (considering climate change)
Annex 8 – Mwache Reservoir Filling Probability

List of Tables
Table ‎6-2: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply ..................................................... 14
Table ‎2-1: Coast Province – Past Population Data and Projections to 2035 ............................. 5
Table ‎2-2: Coast Province Population Projections, by District ................................................. 6
Table ‎2-3: Kenya MWI Standards for Per Capita Water Use .................................................... 7
Table ‎2-4: Total Water Demand Based on MWI Standards ...................................................... 7
Table ‎2-5: Water Demand Projections for the Target Urban Centres........................................ 8
Table ‎3-1: Daily Flows on Monthly and Annual Basis Having Probability of 50, 90,
95 and 100% (m3/s) ............................................................................................... 17
Table ‎3-2: Current Water Supply Capacity in the Coast Province .......................................... 18
Table ‎3-3: List of River Gauging Stations, Available Data and Condition ............................. 20
Table ‎3-4: Tana River at Garsen Hydrometric Station 4G02 – Flow Duration Curves
Fractiles of All Measured Daily Flows (1950–1998) ............................................. 33
Table ‎3-5: Averages and Standard Deviations of Precipitations for 14 and 50 years ............. 34
Table ‎3-6: Measured Mean Monthly Flows at 3MA03 Hydrometric Station (m3/s) .............. 35
Table ‎3-7: Major Characteristics of the Rainfall Stations ....................................................... 36
Table ‎3-8: Mwache Reservoir Site – Simulated Monthly Flows (MCM), 1958/59–
2007/08 ................................................................................................................... 38
Table ‎3-9: Reliability Levels of Different Reservoir Volumes ............................................... 39
Table ‎3-10: Reliability Levels of Different Reservoir Volumes (Climate
Change Considerations) ......................................................................................... 39
Table ‎3-11: General and Model Parameters of the Rare River.................................... 42

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Contents (cont.)
Table ‎3-12: Rare Reservoir Site – Simulated Monthly Flows (MCM),

1958/59–2007/08 .................................................................................................... 42
Table ‎3-13: Installed Capacity and Potential of Water Resources in the Coast
Province .................................................................................................................. 51
Table ‎4-1: Water Resources Development by Phases – 5 Development Scenarios ................ 57
Table ‎4-2: TAVEVO Water Supply (2008–2010) ................................................................... 81
Table ‎4-3: Water Demand Projection for Taita Taveta County ............................................... 82
Table ‎4-4: Development Scenarios for Taita Taveta County .................................................. 84
Table ‎4-5: Construction Cost of Roof Rainwater Harvesting .................................................. 87
Table ‎4-6: Cost of Building a Sand Dam for Average Volume of 100,000 m3 ....................... 90
Table ‎5-1: Cost Estimates for the Various Systems ................................................................. 96
Table ‎5-2: Basic Financial Indicators by Scheme .................................................................... 98
Table ‎5-3: Basic Financial Indicators by Scenario ................................................................ 100
Table ‎5-3: Calculated Indicators – Financial ......................................................................... 103
Table ‎5-4: Basic Economic Indicators by Scenario ............................................................... 103
Table ‎5-5: Calculated Indicators – Economic ........................................................................ 106
Table ‎5-7: Lamu Area – Basic Financial Indicators by Scenario .......................................... 106
Table ‎5-8: Lamu Area – Basic Economic Indicators by Scenario ......................................... 107
Table ‎5-9: Lamu Area Calculated Indicators – Financial ...................................................... 109
Table ‎5-10: Lamu Area Calculated Indicators – Economic ...................................... 109
Table ‎6-1: Classification and Weighting of Parameters and Indicators for ........................... 111
Table ‎6-2: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply ................................................... 112
Table ‎6-3: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply (Engineering priority) ............... 112
Table ‎6-4: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply (Environmental priority) ........... 113
Table ‎6-5: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply (Social & Political
priority) ................................................................................................................. 113
Table ‎6-6: Multi-Criteria Analysis for the Lamu Area .......................................................... 114

List of Figures
Fig. ‎2-1: Daily water demand in the horizon year (2035) ..................................................... 12
Fig. ‎3-1: Map showing geology of the area near Baricho ..................................................... 15
Fig. ‎3-2: General map showing location of paleochannel near Baricho ............................... 16
Fig. ‎3-3: Duration Curve of the Sabaki River Near Baricho ................................................. 17
Fig. ‎3-4: River gauging stations in Athi Catchment area ...................................................... 22
Fig. ‎3-5: Tana River at Garsen Hydrometric Station 4G02 – flow duration curve of
all measured daily flows (1950–1998) ................................................................... 33
Fig. ‎3-6: Mwache Hydrometric Station 3MA03 – comparison between observed
and simulated monthly hydrographs ...................................................................... 36
Fig. ‎3-7: Mwache Hydrometric Station 3MA03 – comparison between observed
and simulated monthly flow duration curves (1976/77–1989/90) ......................... 37
Fig. ‎3-8: Volume – Area – Elevation Curve for the proposed Mwache Reservoir ............... 40
Fig. ‎3-9: Layout Map of the proposed Flooded Area of Mwache Reservoir ........................ 41
Fig. ‎3-10: Volume – Area – Elevation Curve for the proposed Rare Reservoir ..................... 44
Fig. ‎3-11: Layout Map of the proposed Flooded Area of Rare Reservoir .............................. 45

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Contents (cont.)
Fig. ‎3-12: Alternative locations for deep exploratory/production wells for the
Neogene Aquifer .................................................................................................... 48
Fig. ‎3-13: Schematic cross-section of the Neogene Sequence between Garissa and
Kipini wells ............................................................................................................ 49
Fig. ‎4-1: Calculated demand curves, current (2012) consumption and actual curve ............ 54
Fig. ‎4-2: Development of water resources vs. demand – Scenario B1 ................................. 58
Fig. ‎4-3: Block Diagram – Scenario B1 ................................................................................ 60
Fig. ‎4-4: Layout Map of Sequential Development – Scenario B1 ........................................ 61
Fig. ‎4-5: Development of water resources vs. demand – Scenario B1.1 .............................. 62
Fig. ‎4-6: Block Diagram – Scenario B1.1 ............................................................................. 64
Fig. ‎4-7: Layout Map of Sequential Development – Scenario B1.1 ..................................... 65
Fig. ‎4-14: Development of Water Resources vs. Demand – Scenario C2 .............................. 75
Fig. ‎4-15: Block Diagram – Scenario C2 ................................................................................ 77
Fig. ‎4-16: Layout Map of Sequential Development – Scenario C2 ........................................ 78
Fig. ‎4-17: Development of water resources vs. demand – Lamu area .................................... 81
Fig. ‎4-18: Circular pan (left) and rectangular pan (right) ....................................................... 89
Fig. ‎4-19: Typical Sand-Storage Dam with Sand Reservoir Upstream .................................. 91
Fig. ‎5-1: Total Water Costs – Financial .............................................................................. 102
Fig. ‎5-2: Cost and Composition per m3 – Financial Costs .................................................. 102
Fig. ‎5-3: Total water costs – economic costs ...................................................................... 105
Fig. ‎5-4: Cost and composition per m3 – economic costs ................................................... 105
Fig. ‎5-5: Lamu area total water costs – financial costs ....................................................... 106
Fig. ‎5-6: Lamu area cost and composition per m3 – financial costs.................................... 107
Fig. ‎5-7: Lamu area total water costs – economic costs...................................................... 108
Fig. ‎5-8: Lamu area cost and composition per m3 – economic costs .................................. 108

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Contents (cont.)
List of Abbreviations
AFD Agence Française de Développement
CBO Community-Based Organization
CWSB Coast Water Services Board
DAC District Area Coordinator
Dia. Diameter
DN Nominal diameter
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
GoK Government of Kenya
HTH High Test Hypochlorite
HQ Headquarters
JV Joint venture
KIMAWASCO Kilifi-Mariakani Water and Sewerage Company
KWAWASCO Kwale Water and Sewerage Company
LAWASCO Lamu Water and Sewerage Company
MALWASCO Malindi Water and Sewerage Company
MDG Millennium Development Goals
MOWASCO Mombasa Water and Sewerage Company
MWI Ministry of Water and Irrigation
NGO Non-governmental organizations
NWCPC National Water Conservation and Pipeline Corporation
NWSS National Water Services Strategy
O&M Operations and maintenance
PN Nominal pressure
PPT Project preparation team
RC Reinforced concrete
TAWASCO Tana Water and Sewerage Company
TAVEVO Taveta Voi Water and Sewerage Company
ToR Terms of Reference
UfW Unaccounted-for Water
WRMA Water Resources Management Authority
WAB Water Appeal Board
WaSSIP Water and Sanitation Service Improvement Project ()
WSB Water Services Board
WSMP Water Supply Master Plan
WSP Water Services Provider
WSRB Water Services Regulatory Board
WSTF Water Services Trust Fund
WSS Water Supply and Sanitation
WB World Bank
Units
BCM billion cubic metres
km kilometres
lpcd litres per capita per day
m metres
masl metres above sea level
MCM million cubic metres
mm millimetres
m3 cubic metres
m3/d cubic metres per day
m3/h cubic metres per hour
m3/s cubic metres per second
y year

vi
Executive Summary
Water Supply Master Plan for Mombasa and Other Towns
within Coast Province:
The contract for providing consultancy services for preparation of the Water Supply Master
Plan for Mombasa and Other Towns within the Coast Province for the Coast Water Services
Board (CWSB) under the Water and Sanitation Service Improvement Project (WaSSIP) was
awarded to TAHAL Consulting Engineers Ltd. in association with Bhundia Associates.
The Contract was signed on 19 October 2011 and contains two main phases:
 The first includes a Water resources study: it identifies all the water resources in the
region and assess their magnitude, future potential and their feasibility for development.
 The second phase includes the preparation of a regional water demand projection for the
year 2035; it consists of the regional water balance, the water supply master plan and and
the proposed sequence of development and action plans.
The master plan's coverage includes the entire province of the Kenyan coast, and also covers
remote areas like the northern shores of Lamu, Garsen in Tana River county, Taveta town in
Taveta County, Mwatate, Wudanyi and others.
Previous reports for this assignement were submitted to the CWSB during the past year.
Among them were the water demand and the supply assessment, full water resources study
and the final pre-feasibility report. Eight scenarios were analysed during the pre-feasibility
stage and five scenarios were selected for further study in the full-feasibility stage.
The main objective of the full feasibility report is to present a comprehensive engineering and
financial analysis and prioritization of the water supply scenarios.
The evaluation of the five scenarios forms the basis for the discussion and the selection of the
leading feasible option. Following several meetings with CWSB, WB, AfD & PPT and
stakeholder meeting, the current report presents the analyses of the scenarios and
recommends the selected one.
Comprehensive considerations were given to the comments put forward by the client and
donors during this period, such as availability of water, availability of resources,
environmental aspects and so.
The major tasks performed by the consultant include:
 Assessment of current water resources based on a review of previous reports, studies

and field visits: From the outset of the study on the CWSB-WSMP, dozens of reports
and documents related to the development of water resources in the region were made
available to the Consultant by CWSB and other consultants. The reports were prepared by
a number of different stakeholders, companies and consultants, and cover a spectrum of
future resources for the region. The reports lack, however, a comprehensive view of water
resources for the region as a whole. Indeed, the TOR for the project emphasized the need
to review all the papers and documents and "filter out" the main concepts from each to
contribute to the WSMP.
 Assessment of new water resources potential: In accordance with the previous
assignment, a study was conducted to locate new water resources that could be part of the
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Management\Full feasibility\Final, Final november 2013\Final Full Feasibility Exec-1
Study - CWSB WSMP 4th.doc
Water Supply Master Plan for Mombasa and Other Towns within Coast Province
Final Full Feasibility Study – Executive Summary
bulk water supply system, contributing additional sustainable water. In this context, the
work activities, divided into three groups, investigated different types of resources:
– Initially, overall review of the potential of all water resources in the Coast Province
was conducted. Due to the magnitude of the resources, it was decided to focus on
three main groups, which shows the highest potential for the bulk water supply.
– The first group conducted a preliminary analysis of 11 seasonal rivers draining to the
Indian Ocean, and quantified the annual potential water volumes to be collected in
dams. This group also prepared a preliminary assessment of the available water
quantities in the Sabaki River near Baricho.
– The second group focused on regional aquifers: a groundwater model was applied in
order to estimate the annual potential without affecting the aquifer by causing
seawater intrusion or rapidly declining water levels, mainly in the south; This group,
led by TAHAL’s hydro geologist team, was deeply involved in the investigation of
the deep aquifer potential along the coast, namely the Neognic layers. Initial results
indicate that this source is probably available only in the north area of Lamu.
– The third group analysed the potential to add desalinated water to the water balance
of the region, emphasizing local constraints such as availability of electricity,
location on the shores and reliability. Desalination plants were considered due to
their flexibility in terms of modular development. The main disadvantages of
implementing this technology are its extensive energy utilization costs and
environmental considerations.
 Determination of a methodology for creation of the supply option: A methodology was

defined in order to identify supply alternatives, and compared on the basis of a
multi-criteria analysis. Three major development strategies were presented, each strategy
based on a firm concept regarding water resources development, and containing one or
more alternatives derived from the strategy, referred to as scenarios. The scenarios defer
mainly by the sequence of development which affects water balance, bulk system
topology and investments.
 Multi criteria analyses: In order to reflect the different aspects of the development plan a
Multi criteria methodology was established. The methodology applies and ranks five
main parameters to each scenario. They are: Engineering, economic, environmental and
social & political. For the sensitivity analyses, different percentile weights were given to
the each parameter.
The main objective of the CWSB-WSMP is to develop a highly reliable water supply system
that will provide local residents with an uninterrupted water supply (i.e. 24/7). The financing,
design and construction required for the utilization of the new sources (storage tanks, new
transmission mains, booster, pumps etc), requires defined sequential development phasing
Development of the system will be implemented in four main phases:
 Emergency Immediate Works for Water Supply Improvements
 Phase I: 2020,
 Midterm phase (Phase II 2025)
 Horizon (Phase III2035).
For each one of the phase content of work see below
Two basic principles were set as a key rule of each phase:

Exec 2
 A water balance must be fulfilled so that the total water demand will be met by
appropriate resources, in terms of supply, reliability, quality and sustainability
 Specific implementation steps should be determent for each one of the development phases.
Current Water Resources
General
Water demand in the Coast Province depends mostly on a bulk water supply system
comprising of the Mzima Pipeline, Marere Pipeline, Tiwi Boreholes and Sabaki Pipeline.
Taveta Township and the surrounding villages are supplied with water from the high-yielding
Njoro Kubwa Springs (separate from the bulk system). It is suggested that this scheme will
be connected only to Taveta town, following major rehabilitation and expansion. The
township of Lamu depends on the local Shella aquifer. Hola town abstracts water directly
from the Tana River. All are relatively small water schemes. With regards to Taveta,
extensive analysis was conducted and the most economically viable option would be to
utilize local sources, mainly from the Tana River.
Table Exec-1 presents the installed capacity of water resources in the Coast Province.
Table Exec-1: Current Water Supply Capacity in the Coast Province
Installed Capacity Year

Water Source
(m3/d) developed
Mzima Springs 35,000 1957
Marere Springs (with Pemba) 12,000* 1923
Baricho Wellfield 90,000* 1980
Tiwi Aquifer 13,000* 1980
Njoro Kubwa Springs 3,000 1990
Tana River 1,400** 1965
Shella Aquifer 1,800 Unknown
Total 149,200
* Capacities expected for Marere Springs, Baricho Wellfield and
Tiwi Aquifer following completion of ongoing rehabilitation projects
by WaSSIP.
Future Water Resources
Surface Water Potential
The analysis of surface water includes five main assignments, namely:

Exec 3
 Review of previous and on-going studies on dams and direct river intakes in the Coast
Province.
 Field surveys to various rivers and river basins
 Analysis of monthly and annual flows of 11 seasonal rivers draining to the Indian Ocean,
including Mwache, Kombeni and Rare.
 Analysis of low flows in the Sabaki River near Baricho site.
 Analysis of low flows in the Tana River near Garsen site.
The Coast Province has a high potential for development of surface water sources. Analysis
of seasonal rivers shows that the mean annual flows in Mwache River and Rare River are
120 MCM/y and 190 MCM/y (average daily flow of 330,000 m3/d and 520,000 m3/d),
respectively. These rivers have very high potential for dam construction.
Analysis of the Sabaki River near the Baricho site shows a minimum flow (100%) of 2.6 m 3/s
and a sustainable flow (95%) of 3.58 m3/s (309,000m3/d). Current abstraction at the Baricho
Waterworks is 1 m3/s (86,000m3/d). Additional abstraction from Baricho or adjacent new
sites is possible from the resources point of view. Adding an additional 1 m3/s (86,000m3/d)
to the current pumping will double the supply potential, and will enable minimum flow of
1.58 m3/s ( 136,000m3/d) to the Sabaki River Delta.
Tana River is the longest river in Kenya. Analysis indicates a minimum flow (100%) of 8.5
m3/s(734,000m3/d) and sustainable flow (95%) of 44.7 m3/s (3,862,000m3/d). Since the High
Grand Falls project is expected to reduce turbidity and sediment loads in the river and
moderate floods, the Tana River can constitute a highly viable resource. Due to the distance
between the river and Mombasa, it is recommended to abstract water from this source only
for Lamu and Tana counties.
Groundwater Potential
Analysis of groundwater potential in the South Coast included the following stages:
 Review of previous studies and available data for the hydrogeology of the study area.
 Field surveys to various potential areas for groundwater.
 Identification of data gaps.
 Construction of a regional flow model based on the existing data, with simplifying
assumptions.
 Model calibration and assessment of seawater intrusion according to different pumping
scenarios.
Stage 1 model runs studied the general flow regime and the parameters affecting seawater
intrusion for the Tiwi and Msambweni areas as part of the South Coast. The parameters
affecting seawater intrusion were analyzed specifically for Tiwi area and included:
 Amount of recharge to the aquifer (high and low scenarios).

 Amount of pumping (high and low scenarios).

Exec 4
 Distance from the ocean.
Stage 2 model runs studied the flow regime in the Tiwi and Msambweni areas assuming
conservative conditions: lower topography and lower recharge. A transient run simulated the
effect of high pumping and seawater intrusion rate for a period of 20 years, both in Tiwi and
Msambweni.
The conclusions regarding groundwater potential in the South Coast include:
 Groundwater potential determined for Tiwi and Msambweni areas is approximately

20,000 m3/d (7.5 MCM) and 30,000 m3/d (11 MCM), respectively.
 The analysis indicates that additional well-fields may be developed south of Msambweni.
 Major data gaps were identified and plans for required actions and further investigation
are outlined. It is emphasized that the required actions are mandatory before any new
wellfields are developed, or any significant changes in pumping policy are decided on.
The most critical parts of the required actions include:
– Drilling of deep exploratory/monitoring wells for detecting the seawater-freshwater
interface location and depth.
– Performance of an accurate well survey.
– Performance of water level measurements – long-term, regular records.
– Performance of water quality measurements – long-term, regular records.
– Survey of pollution sources.
Deep Groundwater
Data from deep oil and gas exploration wells in Kenya were reviewed in order to assess
whether potential deep groundwater exists. This analysis is based on the assumption that
Kenya's Coast Province may share the same hydrogeological characteristics with Tanzania's
coastal area (the area of Dar es Salaam), where a deep and highly productive aquifer of
immense volume and excellent water quality was recently discovered and investigated.
General and detailed geological information was collected from the data reviewed for 13 of
the deep wells in Kenya. Information included stratigraphy, top and base of the Neogene
Sequence, thickness and depth to the Neogene Sequence, etc.
A cross-section along four deep wells located along the Tana River from inland to the coast
adjacent to the Lamu area revealed a Neogene Sequence of 400–500 m thickness inland
increasing to 1,000–1,500 m close to the coastline. The depth to this potential aquifer varies
from several metres (about 5–30 m) in Pandangua 1 and Walu 2 wells (near Tana River) to
150–200 m in other locations.
The lateral continuity of the Neogene Aquifer is mapped and related to the location of the
Lamu Rift Basin. The potential aquifer units extend into the Lamu area to the north, and
narrow southwards towards Mombasa.

Exec 5
Potential recharge of freshwater to this aquifer should be thoroughly investigated. However,

the location near Tana River is promising, as the river may serve as a source of recharge to
the aquifer in this area.
Further investigation of this potential aquifer is suggested by drilling of deep wells to a depth
of about 600 m. Three alternative locations are suggested, two in the Lamu area and one
along the Tana River between Pandangua 1 and Walu 2 wells.
The counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Taita-Taveta appear to be less promising with
regards to the existence of a deep aquifer. This is mainly due to the dearth of Neogene
formations south of Malindi. The TAHAL/Bhundia Team has conducted thorough
examination of the possibilities of conveying water from Lamu and Tana towards Malindi
and Mombasa. Inter basin transfer of water from Tana and Lamu area will be recommended
if the potential of the neogenic aquifer will prove to be feasible and only after the full
development of local sources (Baricho, Mwache etc.).
In view of the future water demand in the Lamu area, the existence of water potential in the
Neogene layer presents an opportunity not to be missed. Inherent in Lamu Port and the future
project of the corridor to the Ethiopian border present a massive demand for water, in a semi-
arid zone where water is scare. Desalinated water may be found too expensive to afford by
localities. Thus, the Neogene water potential must be further investigated from the geological
viewpoint and by adding exploration drills to clarify the nature of this water source.
Desalination
Desalinating sea water for potable water supply can be a reliable source. Among its
advantages is the option for gradual development (and investment) concurrent with the
master plan development phases and projected increase in the regional demand for water..
The major constraints of desalination are environmental impacts and high energy costs. The
Kenyan coastline is rich in marine life and marine reserves, and the large number of
eco-sensitive areas allows very few potential locations for desalination plants. Energy costs
and availability in Kenya depend on rainfall, as a large proportion of energy production in the
country is based on hydropower.
The cost-benefit of desalination plants in the Kenyan coast will be subject to electricity costs
and reliability.
The wide range of environmental impacts can constitute serious obstacles and need to be
carefully investigated.
Recycled Water
Initiation, design and establishment of a recycling system in CWSB's area of jurisdiction can
be considered only in the later stages of the Master Plan mid-term phase, after 2025.

Exec 6
A prerequisite for any recycling efforts should be an efficiently operating gravity sewage
system, a treatment plant and a recycling plant, none of which will be in operation during the
first development phase of the Master Plan.
Within Mombasa and some other neighbouring towns, recycled water can be used for
gardening within the urban/domestic sector (in addition to agriculture in the rural areas). This
will have a positive effect on the per capita water demand, reducing the total urban water
demand. For the purpose of determining the water balance, only in horizon year 2035 is
recycled water introduced to the extent of 50 lpcd in the greater Mombasa area.
Rainfall Roof Harvesting
Promotion and construction of rainfall harvesting technology is deemed suitable in the

coastal areas and recommended as a means of augmenting the amount of water available. In
public buildings (offices, schools, clinics, etc.), where harvested water uses can be controlled,
it is recommended to consider government support. This water will serve the needs of
flushing and gardening, resulting in a decrease in the use of potable water for those facilities.
In rural households, under appropriate guidance and training in the correct use and
maintenance of the facilities, rooftop harvesting can be viable and effective.
Estimating the potential of this source is traditionally complex and inaccurate. That said,
analysis of previous studies in eastern Africa and augmented by onsite interviews has
indicated that between 2.5% to 10% of the rural water demand can be supplied from rooftop
harvesting, the average ratio of 5% had been adopted.
It should be borne in mind that the possibility of controlling the use of water collected in
rooftop tanks and its quality is very limited. Water will inevitably be used also for drinking
without means of quality control, raising the probability of water-related illnesses. Only a
backing in the form of appropriate education programs will lead to efficient use of this water
without affecting the health of the population.
Population and Water Demand Projection
Population
An estimated total population of 7.5 million inhabitants will live in the area by target year.
Table Exec-2: Summary of the Coast Province Population

County 2009* 2,012 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035
Mombasa 939,470 1,051,268 1,163,066 1,386,173 1,624,076 1,902,809 2,229,380
Kwale 649,931 709,981 770,030 888,091 1,040,510 1,219,088 1,428,315
Kilifi 1,100,674 1,220,103 1,339,532 1,569,430 1,838,784 2,154,367 2,524,112
Lamu 101,539 113,270 125,000 287,500 437,500 600,000 750,000
Tana River 240,075 262,413 284,751 328,922 385,374 451,514 529,006

Exec 7
Taita Taveta 284,657 304,757 324,856 375,911 440,427 516,016 604,578

Total Population 3,316,346 3,661,791 4,007,235 4,836,027 5,766,671 6,843,794 8,065,391
*census 2009
Water Demand
The region’s total water demand was calculated using two different scales:
A. The coast region total urban demand considers all water consumers including those
which are disconnected to the bulk water supply today and in the future.
B. The total urban water demand in the 20 main urban centres, according to the TOR and
the clarification letter defining the scope of the Master Plan
Each major town is comprised of the township and adjacent settlements. The final water
demand projection for the 20 urban centres for the horizon year is presented in the table
below.
Table Exec-3: Water Demand Projections for the Target Urban Centres (by county)
Urban Water Demand (m3/day)
Urban Centre
2,012 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035
Mombasa 140,999 155,840 188,236 243,288 280,501 317,715
Kwale 23,396 25,764 31,096 39,775 48,956 58,136
Kilifi 37,723 41,516 51,616 65,090 79,823 94,555
Taita Taveta 14,778 16,615 19,554 23,494 28,261 33,028
Lamu 4,300 18,568 37,462 62,068 89,314 116,560
Tana River 3,597 4,340 5,207 6,036 7,629 9,222
Total Population 224,793 262,643 333,171 439,751 534,483 629,216
Development Phases
The entire development program for the bulk water supply system was divided into 4 distinct
phases.
Emergency immediate phase: Under the additional finance awarded to the CWSB (total
additional investment of approximately 30 million US$ for emergency actions to improve
supply to Mombasa), includes two new boreholes within Baricho site, pipe segment
rehabilitation along the Baricho-Nguu Tatu pipe, thus allowing to increase the supply to
Mombasa by 20,000 m3/day.
 Phase 1, targeting year 2020. The importance of this phase lies in the major changes it
will effect with respect to the water supply situation in the region, mainly in Mombasa
city and vicinity, where water shortages are severe (as stated in Report No. 2, less than
30% of the water demand in the city was met in 2011). Taking into consideration the
duration it takes to develop water resources and the supply scheme to supply the water –
it may take 3–5 years from commencement to final operation. In some cases, one must
consider that after the water works construction period has ended, it may take additional

Exec 8
time to fulfil the dam/reservoir to its minimum capacity that will yield the daily desired
water volume.
 Phase 2 will be devoted to enlarging the bulk water supply system and improving supply
reliability. This phase will include both the development of new resources for the region
as well as extension of the supply network to new areas, some of which are not connected
to the existing bulk water system. The target year has been set to 2025. According to the
phase of development suggested, additional water resources will be deployed during the
2020–2030 period, and new water supply pipes will be constructed to connect more
consumers to the main supply network.
 Phase 3 refers to the horizon year of 2035. In order to cope with the increasing water
demand in the Coast Province, additional water resources will be introduced, some
possibly consisting of artificial sources such as desalination. At the end of this phase, all
the region's resources will meet the region's water demand. The master plan suggests that
future water resources for the region will not be limited to the "conventional" resources
such as springs, rivers and groundwater. New types will be promoted in order to support
the regional demand for water. At this time, various on-going activities include evaluation
of the potential of water abstraction from the Neogene Aquifer along the coast,
desalination water plants along the coast (with alternatives to be centralized near the
centre of demand or separate plants, as suggested in Lamu), etc. Additional "other" water
resources considered for utilization by the horizon year include utilizing grey water
within the urban sector (considered for the city of Mombasa, high class residence only),
recycled treated wastewater to public gardening in the urban sector (again, probably only
to Mombasa) and roof top rainwater harvesting. Unlike grey water or recycled wastewater
resources, the water potential of roof harvesting is relatively limited. Moreover, water
quality issues and the functionality of water storage tanks during the dry season must be
considered.
Development Strategies and Scenarios for the Interconnected Bulk Water

Supply
Three main strategies were drafted for the supply Scenarios, The strategies were briefly
presented to the client and the donors and were discussed in various meetings at the WB
office in Nairobi, these are:
 Priority expansion of existing resources

 Priority development according to financial considerations
 Differentiation of coastal consumers from inland consumers.
The pre-feasibility report presented eight different water supply scenarios. The feasibility
stage analysed 4 of the more promising ones (B1, B3, B5, C2). The current report contains
one sub scenario referred to as B1.1. It differs from B1 only by the development of the Rare
system in the horizon year.
The different scenarios within each group do not reflect different options of development,
rather the development of the same resources but in different sequences. The region’s
distinguishing geographic and topographic features clearly indicate that different development

Exec 9
sequences may lead to dissimilar costs in terms of Capex and Opex, Thereby changing the
results regarding the total cost of the projects and the cost of water production per cubic
meter.
The sequence of development for each of the development scenarios is:
B1: Baricho Small expansion 22,000 m3/day; Mwache Dam 186,000m3/day; Baricho full
development 63,000m3/day and Mzima II 105,000m3/day.
B1.1: Baricho 22,000 m3/day; Mwache Dam 186,000m3/day; Baricho full development
63,000m3/day and Rare Dam 100,000m3/day.
B3: Baricho full development 85,000 m3/day; Mwache Dam 186,000m3/day and small Rare
Dam 100,000m3/day.
B5: Mwache Dam 186,000m3/day and Rare Dam 180,000m3/day (No development of
Baricho).
C2: Baricho Small expansion 22,000 m3/day; Mwache Dam 186,000m3/day; Baricho full
development 63,000m3/day and gradual development of desalination plants 2x50,000 m3/day.
Financial & Economic Analysis
A full financial and economic analysis was conducted for each of the 5 development
scenarios found to be technically feasible during the Pre-Feasibility Study; five in the
Mombasa area and three within the Lamu region. Moreover, computations were conducted
for both the financial indicators expressing the point of view of the CWSB and the utility and
the economic indicators which articulate the financial outlook of the region and national
economy. Since the projects shall be of public nature and based on historical facts that such
projects have not in the past been financed through commercial bank loans; donor funded
project interest rates were used for the economic and financial analysis. The rates applied
were donor rates of 1% p/a for 10 years grace period and 3% p/a for additional 30 years
period.
The investment indicators included:

 Total Investment required for the development of each scenario.
 Investment per m3 supplied.
 Annual Operations and Maintenance expenditures for each scenario (including specific
consideration for energy costs).
 Total cost of m3 water supplied.
Financial indicators included:

 Net present value (NPV).
 Internal rate of return (IRR).
 Economic net present value (ENPV).
 Economic internal rate of return (EIRR).
 Sensitivity and risk analysis.

Exec 10
Tables Ecec-2 and Exec-3 presents the main investment indicators (Financial and Economic
respectively) for each of the scenarios for development of the Bulk supply (Mombasa Area).
Total investments set out in the following sections and within the Master Plan documents do
not include and do not cover the investments that will be required for water distribution for
the various areas of the WSPs.
Table Exec-4: Main Financial Indicators
Financial Indicators
Average Financial Total
Scenario Total
Capital Energy O&M Water Water
Investment
Cost Cost Cost Cost Volume
(million US$)
(US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (m3/day)
Scenario B1 681.6 0.112 0.122 0.057 0.29 396,000
Scenario B1.1 516.2 0.098 0.130 0.062 0.29 391,000
Scenario B3 516.2 0.137 0.211 0.056 0.40 391,000
Scenario B5 463.9 0.159 0.123 0.047 0.33 386,000
Scenario C2 699.6 0.108 0.114 0.154* 0.38 391,000
* Energy for desalination was calculated as part of the O&M costs.
Total investment varies substantially, from US$ 465 million for Scenario B5 to over US$ 700
million for Scenario C2. As expected, the large and diverse water sources programmed for
development in this scenario (both Mwache and Mzima 2) and the early stage of heavy
investment (during Phase 1) generate a substantial capital investment amount
Table Exec-5: Main Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
Average Economic Total
Scenario Total Water
Capital Energy O&M Water
Investment Volume
Cost Cost Cost Cost
(million US$) (m3/day)
(US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3)
Scenario B1 681.64 0.473 0.110 0.051 0.63 396,000
Scenario B1.1 516.23 0.519 0.117 0.056 0.69 391,000
Scenario B3 516.23 0.463 0.190 0.050 0.70 391,000
Scenario B5 463.90 0.392 0.111 0.042 0.55 386,000
Scenario C2 699.59 0.450 0.102 0.139 0.69 391,000

Exec 11
The total cost and composition of each m3 supplied, by scenario is set out in fig. Exec 1
below. It is important to note that the cost per m3 present is the cost for the bulk water supply
system, i.e. the rate of water for the delivery from the CWSB to the WSP's.
Figure Exec-1: Composition of Calculated Financial Water Costs
Figure Exec-2: Composition of Calculated Economic Water Costs
NPV and IRR
Table Exec-4 presents the financial net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return
(IRR) of each scenario (at a 10% discount rate).

Exec 12
Table Exec-6: Financial Indicators

NPV IRR
Scenario
(million US$) (%)
B1 20.41 35.42%
B1.1 21.08 35.05%
B3 -41.60 -5.65%
B5 0.27 10.26%
C2 -23.70 ND
Four of the main scenarios exhibit a positive NPV ranging between US$ 2.60 million (B1) to
US$ 24.67 million (B5), with IRRs of 12.06% to 18.08%, respectively.
The Economic Net Present Value and the Economic Internal Rate of Return are set out in the
following tables
Table Exec-7: Economic Indicators
ENPV EIRR
Scenario
(million US$) (%)
B1 -180.19 2.64%
B1.1 -215.35 1.04%
B3 -229.30 0.64%
B5 -125.67 3.31%
C2 -201.87 ND
Lamu area – Financial analysis of Scenarios

The Lamu system is separate from the rest of the CWSB's basins and water source options.
Additional scenarios were therefore developed, and their financial and economic implications
are presented in Table Exec-6.
Table Exec-8: Lamu Area – Basic Financial Indicators by Scenario
Average
Total
Capital Energy O&M NPV IRR Water
Scenario Investment
Cost Cost Cost (million US$) (%) Cost
(million US$)
(US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3)
L1: (Nanighi Barrage) 549.00 0.95 – 0.30 -82.89 0.44% 1.257
L2: (Garsen Barrage) 152.71 0.26 0.21 0.08 20.31 18.03% 0.564
L3: (Desalination) 136.38 0.16 0.84 0.26 -48.05 N/A 1.263
The total cost and composition of each m3 supplied in the Lamu area, by scenarios is set out
in figure Exec-3 below.

Exec 13
Figure Exec-3: Composition of Calculated Water Costs (Lamu Area)
Multi Criteria Analysis
Four main parameters were identified and classified as the range of parameters for the multi
criteria analysis; they include engineering, economics, environmental aspects and social &
politics.
A grade (in 100 scale) was linked to each scenario and associated with the indicators in each
field of significance. The economic grading was based on the computed differences in ratios
between the scenarios; grades for the other indicators were assigned according to similar
projects as well as the consultant experience. Each parameter was classified with a percentile
weight, reflecting the importance of the specific parameters for decision making.
Summary results of the basic multi criteria analyses are shown in table Exec-5 below.
Table Exec-9: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply
Inner Scenario
Item Criteria / Parameter Classification
Weighting B1 B1.1 B3 B5 C1
1.0 Engineering Sustainability 30%
1.1 Feasibility of implementation 40% 80 70 50 65 50
1.2 Reliability of Resources 30% 90 70 70 60 90
1.3 Diversity of Resources 30% 90 80 80 20 100
Engineering Summary 86 73 65 50 77
2.0 Economic Considerations 40%
2.1 NPV 20% 47 13 0 100 26
2.2 IRR 35% 80 31 19 100 0
2.3 O&M Costs 10% 83 76 85 100 31
2.4 Calculated Water Cost 35% 86 79 78 100 79

Exec 14
Economic Summary 76 49 42 100 36

3.0 Environmental Issues 15%
3.1 Water Quality 30% 90 70 70 50 95
3.2 Downstream Impact 30% 60 60 70 50 60
3.3 Energy Consumption 30% 90 70 70 80 50
3.4 Construction Effects 10% 60 60 70 80 50
Environmental Summary 78 66 70 62 67
4.0 Social & Political Aspects 15%
4.1 Supply Coverage 30% 100 80 80 80 80
4.2 Resettlement / Income Loss 40% 80 70 70 50 60
4.3 Political acceptability 30% 100 90 50 50 30
Social Summary 60 51 39 39 33
Total 100% 76.8 59.0 52.8 70.2 52.4
Rank 1 3 4 2 5
Three different options were examined:

 A 30/40 percent weighting between engineering/economic parameters
 A 40/30 percent weighting between engineering/economic parameters
 A 40% for the economic and 25% for environmental
The results clearly indicate that the leading scenario B1 maintains its prominent position in
each of the three cases. It is followed by B5. Both are strong in the economic and
environmental breakdowns but lag within the engineering parameters
Conclusions and Recommendations
a. The recommendation of the consultant is to implement the design laid out in scenario
B1. Namely sequential development commencing with the expansion of "Baricho
small" through immediate investments, followed by construction and operation of
Mwache dam (supplying bulk to Mombasa and the southern coast areas), full
development of the Baricho well field (supplying Malindi, Kilifi and the surrounding
areas) and culminating in the phase III development of the Mzima II pipeline and
replacing the current obsolete system.
b. This option delivers the most efficient engineering solution while maintaining
reasonable financial values and minimizing social and political bottlenecks. The
primacy of this option is also evident from the multi criteria analysis results.
c. Another feasible source is the Rare River. NWC&PC is currently conducting a
feasibility study on this dam. This can also serve as a potential source for phase III as
detailed in scenario B1.1.
d. In order to meet the water demand of the new Lamu port, it was found that the Garsen
option is the best development practice, however, desalination plants is a viable
option for future supply mainly depends on the availability of electricity and its
prices.
e. The supply to Settlements along the Tana River and the Taveta township are
relatively simple due to the proximity of large and reliable water sources. In both

Exec 15
cases the magnitude of the source is far above the demand, although quality may be
an issue.
f. The area of Taita Hills (Wundanyi and Mwatate) will be supplied with water from
Mzima springs through a conveyance pipeline from Voi.
List of Projects According to Development Phases
 Immediate phase:
 Drilling two new boreholes in Baricho Wellfield; connecting to the treatment tank,
 Upgrading a 12 km 600 mm pipeline at the upstream section of Nguu Tatu to 800 mm
 Connecting Gongoni to the Malindi water supply line (20Km, 300 mm)
 Construction of the Kakuyuni-Kilifi pipeline (50Km)
 Construction of the new Kakuyuni water tank and Kilifi water tank
 Expansion of the source works and transmission system of Njoro Kubwa springs to
increase supply to Taveta town
 Phase 1:
 Completing the Mwache dam, the treatment facilitates and the water tank under the
CDA project (not part of the CWSB development plan) ,
 Constructing a new pumping facility at the downstream of the treatment outfall
 Constructing 3 pump arrays from the Mwache dam: To +120 new water tank; to
Changamwe water tank, and to the southern area supply.
 Laying new water mains to supply water for Mombasa and the southern area:
- Connecting Mwache P.S. to the new elevated water tank +120,
- Connecting Mwache P.S. to the Changamwe water tank
- Connecting Mwache P.S. to the south supply by connecting to Likoni and to the
Kaya Bombo water tank
- New water tank at +120 elevation (12,000 m3)
- Upgrading of the water tank at Kaya Bombo.
- Connecting the new +120 tank to Nguu Tatu water tank by 30Km pipe of 800 mm.
- Connecting Likoni to Tiwi pipe line in the south region.
- Analyzing the capacities of the Mombasa and Malindi water distribution networks
to receive more water (as proposed in Phase 2).
 Expansion of the source works and transmission system of Njoro Kubwa springs to
increase supply to Taveta town
 Phase 2
 Extension of the Baricho abstraction capacity to a total of 175,000 m3/day by adding
five new boreholes of HCG type to enable abstraction of 900 m3/h each.
 Analyzing the existing equipment to test its productivity and performance,
Interchanging the existing boreholes with new HCG type ones.
 Augmenting the pumping house at Baricho with 2 new delivery pumps to Mombasa
and 3 new pumps to Malindi (2+1)

Exec 16
 Constructing the second Baricho Nguu Tatu pipe line (800 mm, 107km)
 Constructing the second Baricho Kakuyuni pipe line ( 600mm, 45km)
 Upgrading water tanks at Kisimini, kiugani.
 Constructing the new Marafa supply line (30km 300mm)
 Extension of the Kakuyuni water tank
 Constructing a new booster pump to supply Marafa
 Constructing the new Marafa water tank.
 Extension of the electric production facility at the Baricho site
 For Lamu: Constructing the Garsen-Lamu off-take structure and the main pumping
station(alternately when the Lamu port construction commences, desalination can be
considered
 Constructing the new Garsen-Lamu supply line 75km 1000mm
 Phase 3
 Construction of the second Mzima pipe line at 1200mm from the spring to Voi
junction and 1000 mm down to Mombasa until Mazeras tank
 Supplement the development of the south coast supply branch from Mwache
including the supply line to Msambweni (500mm) and further south to Lunga Lunga
(300 mm)
 Constructing the new Msambweni water tank (10,000 m3) and the attached booster
pump to deliver water to Lunga Lunga
 Development of the Msambweni well field with a target capacity of 20,000 m3/day
and connecting to the Msambweni water tank.
 Adding two pump units to the pumping house at Baricho for the supply to Malindi
 Connecting Mwatate and Wudanyi to the bulk water supply from Voi junction by new
Pipe line (400mm) and booster pump to Wudanyi (250mm)

Exec 17
Fig. Exec-3: Water systems, demand centres and potential sources for the main towns of the
Master Plan

Exec 18
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
The contract for providing consultancy services for preparation of the Water
Supply Master Plan for Mombasa and Other Towns within the Coast Province for
the Coast Water Services Board (CWSB) under the Water and Sanitation Service
Improvement Project (WaSSIP) was awarded to TAHAL Consulting Engineers
Ltd. in association with Bhundia Associates. The Contract was signed on
19 October 2011.
Funding for the consultancy services is being provided by the Government of

Kenya (GoK) with the assistance of the International Development Association
(IDA) and Agence Française de Développement (AFD).
Preparation of a water supply master plan requires the Consultant to map and
scan all aspects of the water systems. This starts with investigation of the
resources and their sustainability over time, the search for and estimation of new
water resources, including both surface water and groundwater, as well as water
quality aspects, financial aspects in terms of capital cost and operation cost of the
system, and the manner in which the main pipelines will be connected to current
water distribution systems and water consumers.
According to the ToR and a clarifying letter dated 28 May 2012, the Master Plan
will cover the city of Mombasa and the towns of Lamu, Malindi, Watamu, Hola,
Kilifi, Mtwapa, Garsen, Kwale, Ukunda/Diani, Voi/Maungu, Taveta, Mwatate,
Wundanyi, Mpeketoni, Mariakani, Msambweni, Lunga-Lunga and Kinango.
1.2 Objectives of the Present Report
The aim of the Final Full Feasibility Report is to focus on the scenarios that were
defined and briefly compared in the pre-feasibility study. For the four selected
scenarios in the pre-feasibility study, the consultant added one more (B1.1.) in
order to cover more options of the development sequences. These five scenarios
for the feasibility stage are the subject in this report.
The following objectives have been set out in the framework of the feasibility
study:
 Use of water demand forecasts and water balance to allocate the water
resources in the Coast Province for 20 townships and rural areas.
 Review and analyse the previous reports and documents on existing and
proposed water resources, and their contribution to the future bulk water
supply system.

1
 Identification and investigation of new potential water resources – including

surface water, groundwater and desalinated water – and estimation of their
future sustainable yield.
 Definition of supply alternatives in the framework of defined strategies based
on demand projections over time and resources availability.
 To present the Capex and the Opex of the suggested scenarios.
 To present the financial considerations of the suggested scenarios, in order to
support the selection of the desired development scenarios
 To define the methodology for multi criteria analysis, in defined areas of
interest, indicators (under areas of interest), percentile weights and rank.
 Recommendation of preferred development scenario for consideration into
the preliminary design report.
The aim of the current report is to present the entire work done on the selected
scenarios, for the purpose of deeper evaluation. This is done by applying multi
criteria decision variables, as a tool to present wider aspects on the development
plan. The multi-criteria decision tool is presented with its four main areas of
interest, namely:
 Engineering feasibility.
 Financial aspects, in terms of annual cost, comprising both Capex and Opex.
 Primary environmental aspects, irrespective of the EIA of the desired
scenario.
 Social and political considerations.
1.3 Previous Reports and Related Studies
As of December 2012, the following reports have been submitted by the

Consultant to the client:
 Inception Report, December 2011.

 Low Flow Analysis of Major Rivers (Athi, Tsavo, Tana), March 2012.
 Draft Water Demand and Supply Assessment Report, April 2012.
 Revised Water Demand and Supply Assessment Report, August 2012.
 Draft Pre-Feasibility Study for all Options Report, August 2012.
 Final Pre-Feasibility Study for all Options Report, October 2012.
 Draft Water Resources Report, October 2012.
 Final Water Resources Report, December 2012.
 Feasibility Study – key issues for discussions, December 2012.
 Draft Full Feasibility Study Report, December 2012.
In addition to the Water Supply Master Plan for the Coast Province, four
important studies impacting the Coast Province are in the process of preparation
under different stakeholders in the water sector in Kenya. These are:

2
 National Water Master Plan 2030 (NWMP) – The Japan International

Cooperation Agency (JICA) study team is preparing the NWMP for year
2030. Work on the NWMP began in 2010, covering the entire area of Kenya.
The plan will indicate water resources to be developed, some of which will
influence the availability of water for the Coast Province. The JICA study
team presented their Interim Report on 3 August 2012. The final report is
expected at the beginning of 2013.
 Chyulu Hills Aquifer Study – The World Bank is funding a hydrological
study to investigate the groundwater system of the Chyulu Hills. This aquifer
is the source for Mzima Springs and other smaller springs (Umani, Mtito
Andei, Kiboko, Makindu, Mangelete and others). The Water Resources
Management Authority (WRMA) published a request for Expressions of
Interest for this contract in August 2012.
 Mwache Multipurpose Dam – The Coast development Authority (CDA) is
promoting the design of Mwache Dam for domestic water supply and
irrigation. Pre-feasibility study by Samez (2008) indicated that the dam is
feasible. Full feasibility and the detailed design are being carried out by
CES/APEC, the final design is expected April 2013.
The Consultant is in coordination with the JICA study team, CES/APEC, CDA,
WRMA and the World Bank to share the data and findings from these studies.
1.4 Structure of the Present Report
Chapter 2 Population and Water Demand Projections

This chapter summarizes the population projections and the water demand
forecasts, which were thoroughly presented in the Water Demand and Supply
Assessment Report.
Chapter 3 Current and Future Water Resources

This chapter presents the current and future water resources of the region. The
current water resources in terms of yield are presented in the first part and
potential expansion of the resources is discussed. In the second part, a review of
several reports on local water resources is presented and examined. In the third
part the future potential of the current resources is demonstrated. The fourth part
gives a preliminary analysis of surface water potential in the region. The last part
is dedicated to the groundwater of the region and presents the groundwater model
that was developed in order to estimate the annual sustainable yield from the
main aquifers.
Chapter 4 Proposed Strategies and Scenarios

This chapter is the core of this report and it consists of a description of the three
main strategies to develop water resources and presents the scenario defined
within each strategy. Each development strategy and scenario is presented in both
tabular form showing the resources to be implemented in each phase and in
narrative form which describes the development sequence.

3
Chapter 5, Financial and Economic Analysis

The chapter presents the principles, assumptions and results of the financial and
economic analysis of the selected development scenarios.
Chapter 6 Multi Criteria Analysis

This will define the methodology, application results and several runs of the multi
criteria analyses perform to each one of the 5 scenarios in the light of the main 4
parameters and indicators.
Chapter 7 Further Recommendations

This chapter highlights further aspects that should be considered currently when
the development plan of the bulk water supply system is implemented. Issues
such as the rehabilitation of the water distribution network, coordination between
the bulk water supply systems and local distribution networks as well as the need
of sewer gravity systems – are all considered in this chapter.
Chapter 8 Discussion and Conclusions

Finally, discussion of the 5 scenarios emphasises each scenario strength and
weaknesses and the opportunity to the region bulk water supply is summarized in
this chapter. It is intended in this chapter to indicate the leading development
scenario recommended by the consultant to form the focus of the preliminary
design stage of this study.

4
2. Population and Water Demand Projections

2.1 General
The following activities have been carried out in the framework of the water
demand and supply assessment task:
 Demographic analysis, with three growth rate scenarios, to derive population

growth rates and population forecasts for the five target years – 2015, 2020,
2025, 2030 and 2035 – based on past population censuses of the Coast
Province, the latest being the 2009 census.
 Identification of the existing water supply situation in the Coast Province.
 Determination of level of services and the willingness/ability of consumers to
pay for the services.
 Projection of water demand for the target years.
2.2 Population Projections
The database for the population projections for the Coast Province comprised the
five census datasets (sub-location-wise) for the years 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999 and
2009.
Table ‎2-1: Coast Province – Past Population Data and Projections to 2035
Low Medium High

Linear Geometric Exponential
1969 745,877 745,877 745,877
1979 1,108,974 1,108,974 1,108,974
1989 1,653,429 1,653,429 1,653,429
1999 2,415,917 2,415,917 2,415,917
2009 3,316,346 3,316,346 3,316,346
2015 3,792,231 4,010,574 4,293,595
2020 4,207,960 4,698,892 5,182,370
2025 4,623,689 5,505,343 6,255,121
2030 5,039,419 6,450,201 7,549,931
2035 5,455,148 7,557,222 9,112,768
For each of the districts of the Coast Province, the projected population (for each
year and model) was estimated as a proportion of the province population. The
percentage proportion of population of each district was estimated after analyzing
the current and historic percentage, as follows:

5
 Districts for which the percentage proportion of population (population out of

the province population) showed a constant trend during the period 1989–
2009 were assumed to exhibit this behaviour up to 2035.
 For districts whose population dynamics showed a positive trend as compared
with the population of the province (i.e. the population within the district
increased more than the province average), it was assumed that the trend will
continue in the same manner and with about the same rate of change up to
2025, and will then remain constant up to 2035.
Table ‎2-2: Coast Province Population Projections, by District
District Scenario 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Low 523,283 599,172 664,858 730,543 796,228 861,913
Mombasa Medium 523,283 633,671 742,425 869,844 1,019,132 1,194,041
High 523,283 678,388 818,814 988,309 1,192,889 1,439,817
Low 416,187 500,574 576,491 633,445 690,400 747,355
Kilindini Medium 416,187 529,396 643,748 754,232 883,678 1,035,339
High 416,187 566,755 709,985 856,952 1,034,341 1,248,449
Low 151,978 170,650 185,150 203,442 221,734 240,027
Kwale Medium 151,978 180,476 206,751 242,235 283,809 332,518
High 151,978 193,212 228,024 275,225 332,197 400,962
Low 209,560 227,534 244,062 268,174 292,286 316,399
Kinango Medium 209,560 240,634 272,536 319,310 374,112 438,319
High 209,560 257,616 300,577 362,797 437,896 528,541
Low 288,393 329,924 366,093 402,261 438,429 474,598
Msambweni Medium 288,393 348,920 408,804 478,965 561,168 657,478
High 288,393 373,543 450,866 544,196 656,844 792,811
Low 456,297 523,328 580,699 638,069 695,440 752,810
Kilifi Medium 456,297 553,459 648,447 759,737 890,128 1,042,897
High 456,297 592,516 715,167 863,207 1,041,891 1,257,562
Low 243,825 273,041 294,557 323,658 352,759 381,860
Kaloleni Medium 243,825 288,761 328,922 385,374 451,514 529,006
High 243,825 309,139 362,766 437,858 528,495 637,894
Low 400,552 470,237 530,203 582,585 634,967 687,349
Malindi Medium 400,552 497,311 592,060 693,673 812,725 952,210
High 400,552 532,406 652,979 788,145 951,291 1,148,209
Low 143,411 155,481 168,318 184,948 201,577 218,206
Tana River Medium 143,411 164,434 187,956 220,214 258,008 302,289
High 143,411 176,037 207,295 250,205 301,997 364,511
Low 96,664 113,767 126,239 138,711 151,183 163,654
Tana River
Medium 96,664 120,317 140,967 165,160 193,506 226,717
Delta
High 96,664 128,808 155,471 187,654 226,498 273,383
Low 101,539 121,351 134,655 147,958 161,261 174,565
Lamu Medium 101,539 128,338 150,365 176,171 206,406 241,831
High 101,539 137,395 165,836 200,164 241,598 291,609
Low 216,992 235,118 256,686 282,045 307,405 332,764
Taita Medium 216,992 248,656 286,632 335,826 393,462 460,991
High 216,992 266,203 316,125 381,562 460,546 555,879
Taveta Low 67,665 72,052 79,951 87,850 95,749 103,648

6
District Scenario 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Medium 67,665 76,201 89,279 104,602 122,554 143,587
High 67,665 81,578 98,465 118,847 143,449 173,143
Low 3,316,346 3,792,231 4,207,960 4,623,689 5,039,419 5,455,148
Total Medium 3,316,346 4,010,574 4,698,892 5,505,343 6,450,201 7,557,222
High 3,316,346 4,293,595 5,182,370 6,255,121 7,549,931 9,112,768
From the Coast Province population projections, it should be noted that an

estimated total population of 7,557,222 inhabitants will live in the area and will
demand water supply services at different levels in their locations. This figure
represents the medium model for projected population for the horizon year of
2035.
2.3 Water Demand Projections
Water demand projections were calculated in several different ways in order to

identify the most adequate forecast for the region's future water demand.
Therefore, the total water demand is the sum of the following:
 Population water demand, or domestic forecast, including water loss.

 Institutional and other public institutions water demand.
 Industrial demand – The Consultant collected data from the WSPs of all
major industrial and commercial consumers. The industrial demand was
updated in September 2012 after discussions with WSPs.
 Livestock water demand in the rural sector.
 Water demand of mega-projects, as reflected in the development documents.
 Separation of urban and rural settlements.
Table ‎2-3: Kenya MWI Standards for Per Capita Water Use
Socioeconomic Level Home Type as MWI lpcd Remarks

Class H Home Type 1 250 * % by division
Class M Home Type 2/3 150 % by division
Class L (IC) Home Type 4/5 75 % by division
Class L (non-IC) Home Type 4/5 40 % by division
Note: The figure for lpcd includes domestic water use plus water losses.
* In the year 2035, it has been assumed that Mombasa will use a dual system for utilization of grey water, reducing
lpcd to 180.
Table ‎2-4: Total Water Demand Based on MWI Standards
County 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

7
Mombasa 152,302 184,372 238,874 288,918 312,554

Kwale 50,535 59,566 76,769 90,701 119,910
Kilifi 84,597 103,160 133,443 159,856 210,047
Lamu 22,204 41,681 67,556 104,763 125,186
Tana River 25,194 29,492 36,981 43,486 55,739
Taita Taveta 29,411 34,430 42,789 50,366 63,817
Total (m3/d) 364,243 452,701 596,413 738,090 887,253
Total (MCM/y) 132.9 165.2 217.7 269.4 323.8
In terms of the annual water demand (relevant for the water supply deficit
calculation), the total water demand was estimated to be:
 132.9 MCM/y in the year 2015.

 323.8 MCM/y in the horizon year of 2035.
2.4 Water Demand – Urban and Rural
2.4.1 Water Demand of the 20 Main Urban Centres
The various scenarios and alternatives take into consideration the 20 main urban
centres, according to the TOR and the clarification letter defining the scope of the
Master Plan.
Each major town is comprised of the township and adjacent settlements. The final
water demand projections for the 20 urban centres for the horizon yearare shown
in Table ‎2-5 and Fig. 2-1.
Table ‎2-5: Water Demand Projections for the Target Urban Centres
Urban Water Demand (m3/d)

County Urban Centre
2012 2015 2020 2025 2035
Mombasa 137,611 152,302 184,372 238,874 312,554
Mombasa
Total Mombasa 137,611 152,302 184,372 238,874 312,554
Kwale 3,786 4,162 4,945 6,000 8,676
Southern Area
Kinango 1,775 1,951 2,365 2,949 4,489

Msambweni 1,976 2,171 2,665 3,252 4,809
Kwale
Ukunda/Tiwi 11,098 12,250 14,676 19,671 28,453
L. Lunga/Vanga 4,761 5,230 6,445 7,903 11,709
Total Kwale 23,397 25,764 31,097 39,776 58,136
Kilifi Mariakani 4,036 4,441 5,421 6,884 10,150

8
Kilifi 5,167 5,686 7,090 9,014 13,240

Malindi/Watamu 18,694 20,574 25,616 32,067 46,064
Marafa 1,287 1,417 1,803 2,303 3,402
Mtwapa 8,539 9,398 11,686 14,822 21,699
Total Kilifi 37,723 41,515 51,615 65,090 94,555
Taveta 2,972 3,573 4,265 5,121 7,228
Mwatate 2,127 2,350 2,758 3,332 4,665
Taita Taveta Wundanyi 2,178 2,406 2,823 3,411 4,777
Voi/Maungu 7,501 8,286 9,708 11,630 16,358
Total Taita Taveta 14,778 16,615 19,554 23,493 33,028
Mpeketoni 1,800 2,753 3,272 4,263 6,749
Lamu Lamu Island/Port 2,500 15,815 34,190 57,805 109,811
Northern Area
Total Lamu 4,300 18,568 37,462 62,068 116,559

Garsen 1,456 1,567 1,866 2,269 3,302
Hola 750 1,246 1,524 1,558 2,707
Tana River
Bura 1,391 1,527 1,817 2,209 3,213
Total Tana River 3,597 4,340 5,206 6,036 9,222
Total Urban Water Demand:
213,509 236,196 286,637 367,233 498,273
Southern Region
Total Urban Water Demand:
7,897 22,908 42,668 68,103 125,781
Northern Region
Total Urban Water Demand 221,406 259,104 329,306 435,336 624,053
It is important to indicate the differences between the figures for the total water
demand in the coast region for the horizon year (projection summary):
For the whole cost province – 887,250 m3/day, equal 323.8 MCM/y. (table 2-4)
For Mombasa + 19 townships in the mainland – 498,273 m3/day. The balance for
the main land includes 40,000 m3/day for rural supply out of the main lines, to
total of 538,273 m3/day.
For Lamu region 125,782 m3/day not include rural supply.
2.4.2 Water Demand of Rural Bulk Consumers
The various scenarios and alternatives take into consideration the 20 main urban
centres.
In order to best calculate the portion of the water demand in the rural areas that
will be supplied from the bulk system, an adequate methodology was assumed as
follows:
This is based on the basic distance that people will be ready to walk in order to
reach a standpipe or a water kiosk for the need of water (to be filled in plastic
container). Assuming two main factors:

9
 High reliability – Abstracting water from a bulk water pipe ensures high
reliability (i.e., each time a residence will go to the standpipe to fill water,
water will be available).
 High quality – The water quality in the bulk water pipe is very high, results
from the high standards of treatment plants for the bulk system.
According to this, it was assumed that a distance of 5 km, roughly equivalent to

one hour of walking, is the maximum distance that people will consider to walk
in order to get water of adequate quality and high reliability. Thus, the total area
served by 1 km of main pipeline is 10 km2.
In the calculation process, the population density is determined in each one of the
districts/divisions. The density is then multiplied with the length of the bulk water
supply systems (existing + proposed) in each district, as was measured using GIS
database. The result is the total population in each area that are located (by
calculation) near the main pipeline and should be considered as water demand
population. In order to determine the water demand, the total population was
multiplied by the lpcd for the rural sector. The results – by districts – finally are
added to the water demand table and to the water balance, increasing the total
urban demand in the Coast Province by 8%.
2.4.3 Target Water Demand for CWSB
The total water demand for the development of the master plan includes the main
townships and the rural bulk consumers. The computed water balance calls for
95% supply from the bulk water system augmented with 5% supply from small
local water sources that will not be part of the bulk system such as small
boreholes, small desalination plants. Table 2-6 presents the total and targeted
demand.
Table ‎2-6: Target Water Demand for CWSB
Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Population Projection [Capita] 2,907,067 3,521,284 4,130,325 4,839,196 5,669,727 6,642,798
Total Water Demand [m3/day] 213,509 242,696 299,637 394,233 465,753 538,273
Target Water Demand * [m3/day] 202,834 230,561 284,655 374,521 442,465 511,359
* (Less 5% local sources)
2.4.4 Demand Management
The demand for water is the most important factor behind production activities,
i.e., pumping, treatment to potable (or other) level and supply.

10
In many regions of the world experiencing water crises and a significant gap
between supply and demand, the main cause is uncontrolled and unrestrained
water demand and usage. Various development processes – such as high
population growth and other demographic changes; rural-urban migration;
unplanned urban development; and improved sanitation, hygiene and health –
cause higher and frequently unpredictable demand for water.
Therefore, management of water demand is the most efficient instrument for

monitoring and regulating the stress on water resources.
Several countries in which demand has increased substantially above the supply
capacity of local natural sources are now shifting to desalination. At first glance,
desalinated water is a product that is within the grasp of commercial traders or
brokers, and the state has an option to buy any amount required at an agreed upon
price from the producer. However, the total dependence of the desalination
process on energy, coupled with the level of global energy costs, has given rise to
an understanding that desalination is not a universal panacea and that artificial
water production is just one element in the entire scheme of augmenting water
quantities while reducing demand. In Israel for example, the National Authority
for Water and Sewage includes a special department (called "effectiveness of
water use") whose role is to highlight (to decision-makers) inefficient uses of
water, initiating campaigns for water conservation and educational programs.

11
Fig. ‎2-1: Daily water demand in the horizon year (2035)

12
3. Current and Potential Water Resources

3.1 Current Water Resources
Current water resources comprise of the water resources within in the Coast
province areas that are currently developed either partially or fully to their
maximum yield for water supply within the jurisdiction of the CWSB.
3.1.1 Mzima Springs
Mzima Springs are located in a protected area – Tsavo National Park, at the foot
of Chyulu Hills. The main spring emerges to surface at an elevation of 700 m, at
a distance of 220 km from Mombasa city.
The springs are connected to Mazeras Water Tanks by a pipeline totalling 215 km
in length. Together with the 3 km source works tunnel, the distance along the
pipeline to Mazeras Water Tanks is 218 km. Half of the pipeline lies within the
Tsavo National Park.
The current rate of abstraction is only about 0.4 m3/s. According to documents
recently presented to CWSB under the Bulk Water Service Consultancy Program,
this flow rate is limited by the capacity of the Mzima Pipeline. A recent hydraulic
study showed that the gravitational flow along the pipeline is limited to the slope
in one section that can convey only up to 35,000 m3/d. In addition, some of the
water does not reach the Mazeras Water Tanks (for Mombasa) as water is lost
through leakage along the way, as well as abstraction by other consumers:
according to a study on the bulk water supply system, only 70% of the total
potential daily volume from the pipeline reaches the Mazeras Water Tanks due to
the above reasons.
The initial works in the 1950s were designed to enable laying of a parallel
pipeline at a later date, thus doubling the flow to 0.9 m3/s (78,000 m3/d). Taking
into consideration the environmental impacts, earlier studies proposed that the
upper limit that can be abstracted from Mzima Springs should be 1.2 m3/s
(103,000 m3/d).
The need for a second Mzima Pipeline has been raised several times in the past
two decades. China Machinery Engineering Corporation has recently (April
2012) delivered a proposal to CWSB for a "Second Mzima Pipeline", the
proposed capacity of the new pipeline being 100,000 m3/d (1.15 m3/s).
Surpluses from Mzima Springs flow to the Tsavo River, which subsequently
meets the Athi River to form the Sabaki River.
WRMA has recently invited consultancy contract (supported by WB) for the
study of the Chiulu hills Aquifer in order to ascertain the sustainable yield of

13
Mzima and other springs (Umani, Mtito Andei, Kiboko, Makindu, Mangelete and
others) originates from the Chiulu hills, in light of the climatic changes in the
region. (WRMA) published a request for Expressions of Interest for this contract
in August 2012, this study will play a major role in understanding the real
potential of this source as well as other sources. The actual potential of Mzima
Springs will be determined following this in-depth study.
3.1.2 Baricho Wellfield
The Baricho Wellfield consists of eight boreholes on the southern bank of the
Sabaki River. The boreholes abstract water from the paleochannel, and have a
total capacity of approximately 96,000 m3/d. Two bulk supply systems from
Baricho exist, one to Malindi and Watamu, and the other to Kilifi and Mombasa.
According to the site visit conducted in June 2012, current water supply from the
Baricho Waterworks is about 62,000 m3/d (50,000 m3/d via the Mombasa
Pipeline, and 12,000 m3/d via the Malindi Pipeline). Latest data received 02.2013
indicates a total production of 67,000-68,000 m3/d as an average
dailyproduction.When the ongoing improvement works – rehabilitation of pumps
and electric components under WaSSIP at the site – are completed, it is assumed
that the overall capacity of this water source will be around 90,000 m3/d, equal to
3,800 m3/h. This new installed capacity will bring the two conveyance systems to
their full capacity; thus any further abstraction of water to Mombasa from this
source will have to include not only wells (boreholes) and booster pump
expansion, but also a water conveyance or transmission system.
Baricho was first developed as a surface water intake site during the 1980 and
used to supply water to Mombasa. The intake site included full conventional
water treatment works and a pumping station. Baricho was abandoned as a
surface source in the early 1990s after a few years of operation, largely because
of excessive O&M costs related to high silt loads: the amount of chemicals for
flocculation and coagulation tripled, while daily desilting of the intake apron had
to be performed manually, and rapid breakdown of the pump impellers took place
due to the abrasive action of silt and sediments.
After the abandonment of Baricho as a surface water option, groundwater from

the paleochannel was explored and developed as a source with highly productive
boreholes on the south bank of the Sabaki River. The boreholes make use of the
existing pumping and transmission systems. Except for the high electricity costs,
groundwater has proved to be successful.
H.P. Gauff conducted two studies on the paleochannel:
 Seismic & Resistivity Survey (1993, with the assistance of Groundwater

Survey Kenya).
 Modular three-dimensional finite difference groundwater flow model of the
Sabaki Aquifer (1995).

14
These studies were aimed at investigating the boundaries and potential of

groundwater in the paleochannel. The following findings were obtained:
 The survey covered an area 8.5 km in length along the river.

 The depth of the coarse sediments ("the paleochannel") is 50–60 m.
 Aquifer transmissivity in the paleochannel is of the order of 10,000 m2/d.
 The model covered the area of the eight boreholes.
 Expansion to 220,000 m3/d is feasible, under limitations of low flows.
Figs. 3-1 and 3-2 depict the geology structures and the general location of the
paleochannel near Baricho.
Source: Seismic & Resistivity Survey, H.P. Gauff 1993)
Fig. ‎3-1: Map showing geology of the area near Baricho

15
Source: Seismic & Resistivity Survey, H.P. Gauff 1993)
Fig. ‎3-2: General map showing location of paleochannel near Baricho

16
Low Flow Study

The hydrology of the Sabaki River had been studied and presented in the Water
Resources Report. Fig 3-3 and table 3-1 summarizes the results of the study.
Fig. ‎3-3: Duration Curve of the Sabaki River Near Baricho
Table ‎3-1: Daily Flows on Monthly and Annual Basis Having Probability of 50, 90,
95 and 100% (m3/s)
% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Total
50 8.42 8.42 8842 8242 572 7242 .244 .242 8547 5248 2445 2242 7.83
90 444 .44 .4. 584. 8447 8842 554. 842 24. 745 5847 5448 .88
95 242 .45 .48 748 5248 5.45 847 245 748 248 247 5847 387
100 844 .42 .42 .4. 24. 744 248 245 242 .48 .42 245 683

17
3.1.3 Total Production of the Current Water Systems
The Coast Province mostly depends on a bulk water supply system comprising
Mzima Pipeline, Marere Pipeline, Tiwi Boreholes and Sabaki Pipeline, supplying
Mombasa and other counties such as Kwale, Kilifi and Taita Taveta. Taveta
township and the surrounding villages are supplied with water from the high-yield
Njoro Kubwa Springs. The settlement of Lamu depends on the local Shella
Aquifer. Hola town abstracts water directly from the Tana River.
Table 3-1 summarizes the capacity of the main water supply systems in the Coast
Province.
Table ‎3-2: Current Water Supply Capacity in the Coast Province
Installed Capacity Year

Water Source
(m3/d) Developed
Mzima Springs 35,000 1957
Marere Springs (with Pemba) 12,000* 1923
Baricho Wellfield 90,000* 1980
Tiwi Aquifer 13,000* 1980
Njoro Kubwa Springs 3,000 1990
Tana River 1,400 1965
Shella Aquifer 1,800 unknown
Total 149,200
* Capacities expected for Marere Springs, Baricho Wellfield and Tiwi Aquifer
following completion of ongoing rehabilitation projects.
The area of the Coast Province falls under two catchment areas managed by
WRMA – Tana Catchment Area and Athi Catchment Area. The Coast Province is
located downstream of both catchments, and, therefore, it is essential to
understand the development strategies for the catchment as a whole.
The WRMA Catchment Management Strategies (2008) established the short- and
medium-term strategies for water resources development.
3.2 Water Resources Management
3.2.1 Overview
Three key institutional players are currently involved in Water Resources

Management in Kenya – the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI); the Water
Resources Management Authority (WRMA), exercising jurisdiction over water
uses and flood control; and the National Environmental Management Authority
(NEMA), responsible for management of the water environment (water quality

18
and aquatic ecology), including watershed management under the authority of the
Ministry of Environment.
Responsibility for flood control is not completely clear according to the Water
Act 2002 (i.e., whether under the authority of MWI or WRMA). Catchment
protection is under the authority of WRMA, although it is not clear if catchment
protection includes flood control. Watershed management is part of catchment
protection while water quality management is also conducted to a partial extent
by WRMA.
In the future, the water resources management framework will have to consider
present and future needs of various water-related sectors, policy and non-policy
measures and requirements, alternative measures, and an appropriate balance
between policies and measures.
3.2.2 Existing Situation
The Coast Water Services Board relies on both ground water and surface water
resources for its water supply in its area of jurisdiction. The surface water
resources comprise largely of spring water resources. The two largest river
resources in the area namely the Sabaki River and Tana River have not been fully
exploited to their full potential. The Sabaki has been largely exploited in the form
of subsurface abstraction at Baricho. Tana River, except for Bura irrigation
scheme in Bura and water supply abstraction in Hola, largely remains untapped
and has a huge potential for exploitation as a water supply resource in the
northern part of the province. The sections that follow look at the systems in
place for the management of water resources in the Coast Province
3.2.2.1 Existing Groundwater Management
Aquifers in Kenya in general and the Coast Province in particular, are managed
on an ad hoc basis. Water allocation is not based on a formal system of
assessment or with an allocation plan in mind.
Groundwater management decision-making is sector-based and ad hoc in nature,

with no mechanism for coordination or encouragement of multi-sector linkages.
Management of groundwater resources is carried out independently of land
management and other land based resources. Decision-making in connection with
groundwater management is largely centralized, with minimum involvement, if
any, on the part of stakeholder water resources management units.
Despite provision for groundwater conservation zones in the Water Act 2002, no
ground conservation zones have been gazetted for the Coast Province or Kenya as
a whole. A majority of the numerous groundwater users do not have abstraction

19
permits and hence essentially they are not documented. Groundwater

management is therefore weak and largely lacking in any strategic focus.
3.2.2.2 Existing Surface Water Management
Existing surface water management is limited to flow gauging stations along the
major rivers and springs found within the Coast Province. There is no evidence of
any catchment conservation or environmental flow management efforts for these
rivers.
Table ‎3-3 presents a list of the gauging stations, their locations and data
availability.
Table ‎3-3: List of River Gauging Stations, Available Data and Condition
Station Location Status Period of available data

3F02 Athi River Active in the past 1952–1995, with gaps
3HA01 Sabaki River Not active
3HA08 Sabaki River Active in the past 1973–1982, with gaps
3HA12 Sabaki River Active in the past 1980–1987, with gaps
4G01 Lower Tana Active in the past 1941–1994, with gaps
3MH01 Marere Springs Not active
3MH08 Mwadabara/Mkomba Springs Not active
(Marere Springs)
(Marere Springs)
(Marere Springs)
3MH23 Kitanzi Springs (Marere Springs) Not active
3KD04 Mkurumudzi River Not active
3KD05 Mkurumudzi River Not active
3G03 Mzima Springs Active in the past 1951–1990, with gaps
3G02 Tsavo River Active in the past 1949–1991, with gaps

20
Station Location Status Period of available data

3G12 Tsavo River Not active
3J01 Lumi River Not active
3J15 Lumi River Active in the past 1961–1994, with gaps
3J05 Njoro Kubwa Springs Not active
3J02 Rovu River (drains to Lake Jibe) Not active
3KC04 Mwachema River Active in the past 1978–1991, with gaps
3KB01 Ramisi River Active in the past 1961–1991, with gaps
3KC01 Ramisi River Not active
3KC03 Ramisi River Not active
3KC04 Ramisi River Active in the past 1978–1991, with gaps
3LA01 Rare River Not active
3LA02 Rare River Not active
3MH10 Pemba River Active in the past 1947–1978, with gaps
3MA02 Mwache River Not active
3MA03 Mwache River Active in the past 1976–1990, with gaps
3LA03 Voi River Active in the past 1961–1981, with gaps
3LA04 Voi River Not active
3LA05 Voi River Active in the past 1969–199,2 with gaps
3KG01 Umba River Active in the past 1966–1968, with gaps
The table presents data received from WRMA, clarifications regarding the
stations is not available. The consultant had made effort to achieve the most
updated data.
3.2.2.3 Main rivers: Athi Catchment Area
The following are the main rivers found in the Athi Catchment Area.
A map showing the river gauging stations in the Athi catchment area is presented
in Fig. 3-3.

21
Fig. ‎3-4: River gauging stations in Athi Catchment area
1. Athi & Sabaki Rivers
The catchment area for the Athi/Sabaki River is 37,836 km2. There are numerous
regular river gauging stations on the river, namely, 3F02, 3HA01, 3HA02,
3HA03, HA05, 3HA06, 3HA08, 3HA09, 3HA010, 3HA011, 3HA012 and
3HA013. Data for gauging station 3F02, located at about 200 km upstream of the
confluence of the Sabaki and Tsavo rivers, is available for the period 1952–1995,
albeit with significant gaps. The other stations for which data are partly available
are 3HA08, with data for the period 1973–1982, and 3HA12, with data for the
period 1980–1987. For the rest of the stations data are not available.

22
2. Mwache River
The Mwache River basin covers an area of approximately 2,000 km2. Two
regular gauging stations exist on the Mwache River, namely, 3MA02 and
3MA03. Data for 3MA03 are partly available for the period 1961–1981. Data are
not available for station 3MA02.
3. Rare River
The Rare River, located in Kilifi District, is a seasonal river with a catchment
area of about 7,729 km2. The river has two regular gauging stations, 3LA01 and
3LA02. Data are not available.
4. Pemba River
The Pemba River is located in the east part of Shimba hills and drains an area of
about 637 km2. The river has only one gauging station, namely, 3MH10. Data
available for the river relate to the period 1947–1978 (with gaps corresponding to
periods when data were not recorded).
5. Ramisi River
The Ramisi River, draining an area of about 1,610 km2, has four regular gauging
stations: 3KB01 on the river itself; and 3KC01 on Ndoro, 3KC03 on Cheruka and
3KC04 on Mwachema tributaries. Data are available only for station 3KB01 for
the period 1978–1991 (with gaps).
6. Mwachema River
The Mwachema River flows along the eastern side of the Shimba hills. The
catchment area is about 2,000 km2 and borders the catchments of Pemba and
Mkurumuji rivers. The river drains into Mombasa Bay near Port Reitz, south of
Mombasa Island. The data available from the one gauging station, 3KC04, relates
to the period 1978–1991 (with gaps).
7. Lumi River
The main water resource in Taita Taveta District, the Lumi River originates in the
southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro. It drains an area of approximately 590 km 2

23
and drains into the swamps of Lake Jipe. The river has five regular gauging
stations: 3J01, 3J04, 3J06, 3J07 and 3J15. Data are available only for station 3J15
for the period 1961–1994 (with gaps).
8. Tsavo River
The Tsavo River has its origin in the Mzima Springs area and flows eastward
from the foothills of Mt. Kilimanajro, draining an area of 7,140 km2. It is the
largest tributary of the Athi River. The Tsavo River basin has seven regular river
gauging stations on its several tributaries (Mzima, Nolturesh Springs, Ngong
Naroko, Kitendeni and Simeki streams). The gauging stations are 3G02, 3G04,
3G05, 3G06, 3G012, 3G013 and 3G014. Data are available for gauging stations
3G02 (for the period 1949–1991), 3G04 (for the period 1949–1997), 3G05 (for
the period 1951–1979) and 3G06 (for the period 1951–1989). All data for these
stations have gaps when no records were taken.
9. Mkurumudzi River
The Mkurumudzi River originates in the Shimba Hills and drains a catchment
area of about 200 km2. It has three gauging stations, 3KD04, 3KD05 and 3KD05.
However, data for the stations are not available.
10. Voi River
The Voi River originates in the Taita hills and drains into Rare River. It is a
seasonal river with three gauging stations: 3LA03, 3LA04 and 3LA05. Data are
available at 3LA03 for the period 1961–1981and at 3LA05 for the period 1969–
1992 (data for both stations having gaps).
11. Umba River
The Umba River originates in Tanzania. It has one gauging station on the Kenya
side namely 3KG01 with data available spanning the period 1966–1968 when it
was not recorded throughout the year.
3.2.2.4 Main rivers: Tana Catchment Area
The Tana Basin, with a catchment area of about 94,700 km2, can be divided into
three sections: the upper 9,520 km2 area, consisting of streams from Mt. Kenya
and the Aberdares, the middle 15,480 km2 area, and the Lower Tana 69,700 km2
area. While the master plan is based on the Lower Tana, it is also affected by

24
activities in the entire catchment. The Tana River has several gauging stations,
among them 4G01 (Garissa), 4G02 (just upstream of Garsen) and 4G04 (just
upstream of Hola). Station 4G01 has data for the period 1941–1994, 4G02 for the
period 1950–1998 and 4G04 for the period 1962–1993, all displaying some gaps
corresponding to periods when data were not recorded.
In addition to the Tana River itself, there are several seasonal rivers in the area,
found in the area west of the Tana River, in the northeastern part of the Tana
River Delta. These rivers, popularly known as "lagas", flow in a west-east
direction from Kitui, Makueni and Mwingi districts, draining into the Tana River
and eventually into the Indian Ocean.
3.2.2.5 Spring Water Resources
In addition to river resources, spring-water resources are also found in the Coast
Province. They are listed below:
1. Mzima Springs
The Mzima Springs basin lies 220 km to the northwest of Mombasa, with the
source located on the fringes of Chyulu Hills. The springs are located west of
Chyulu Hills in Tsavo West National Park, at an elevation of about +680 masl at
the spring intake works and at the pipeline haedworks at an elevation of 673masl.
Mzima Springs comprise a group of four springs – Hippo Pools, Bathing Pools,
Cataract Swamp and Banana Swamp. Water from Mzima Springs is measured in
gauging station 3G03 before discharging into the Tsavo River. Data available for
this station relate to the period 1951–1990, with gaps corresponding to periods
when data were not recorded.
2. Marere Springs
Marere Springs originate from Shimba Hills and are the source of the oldest
piped water supply to Mombasa. They are located in Kwale District, southwest of
Mombasa. The sources of Marere Springs are three springs in Shimba Hills –
Marere, Votia and Mwaluganje. The springs have seven regular gauging stations
– 3MH01, 3MH02, 3MH03, 3MH09, 3MH25, 3MH26 and 3MH14. Votia
Spring, a tributary of the Mwalolo River, has three gauging stations – 3MH06,
3MH15 and 3MH16. Mwadabara and Mkomba streams/springs have three
gauging stations – 3MH17, 3MH08 and 3MH21 – while Kitanzi Spring has one
gauging station, 3MH23. Data are not available for any of these stations.
3. Njoro Kubwa Springs
The Njoro Kubwa Springs emerge in a pool beside the right bank of the Lumi
River, about 3 km southeast of Taveta township. The group of springs includes

25
two other springs – Njoro Ndogo 1 and Njoro Ndogo – emerging 100 m
upstream. The Njoro Kubwa Springs are utilized for irrigation water supply to
sisal estates. They have one gauging station, 3J05, for which data are not
available.
3.2.2.6 Lake Water Resources
Additional water resources available in the Coast Province include the following
fresh water lakes:
1. Lake Jipe
Lake Jipe is a shallow water body located on the Kenya-Tanzania border, with
about one-quarter of it lying within Tsavo West National Park. Lake Jipe is fed
mainly by rainfall from the slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro, perennially by runoff from
the Lumi River and ephemerally by the Mbaro River to the south. The lake is
drained by the Rovu River, which flows out from the northwestern corner of the
lake. The Rovu River has one gauging station, 3J02, for which data are not
available.
2. Lake Challa
Lake Challa occupies the site of an old volcanic caldera, with the Kenya-
Tanzania border passing through its middle. The surface area of the lake is
4.21 km2, the volume of water stored is in excess of 400 MCM and the crater is
some 140 m deep. Water depth ranges from 85 m to 91 m. Data are not available
from the one gauging station, 3J03.
3.2.3 WRMA Catchment Strategies
3.2.3.1 General
The area of the Coast Province falls under two catchment areas managed by
WRMA – Tana Catchment Area and Athi Catchment Area. The Coast Province is
located downstream of both catchments, and, therefore, it is essential to
understand the development strategies for the catchment as a whole.
The WRMA Catchment Management Strategies (2008) set short- and medium-
term strategies for water resources development.
3.2.3.2 Athi Catchment Area Strategies

26
WRMA management strategies for the Athi Catchment Area, with an annual
average rainfall of 739 mm, include development of surface water storage, in the
framework of which the region will adopt a micro (household level) and macro
(state level) strategy, promoting:
 Construction of large dams.

 Rehabilitation of small dams/pans.
 Construction of water harvesting facilities.
Water storage can be improved through the enhancement of groundwater storage,

performed by encouraging development of groundwater recharge infrastructure.
Targets in terms of water resources development include:
 Development of plans to meet 150,000 m3 capacity groundwater storage.

 Development of 1.9 MCM storage in small-scale reservoirs by 2013.
 Promotion of 1.62 BCM storage on the Athi River by 2013, as well as at
Munyu, Fourteen Falls, Site A13, Mavindini and Yatta Bridge.
3.2.3.3 Tana Catchment Area Strategies
The Tana Catchment Area is home to the largest dam and reservoir capacity in
Kenya. The existing dams are Kindaruma (1968), Kamburu (1975), Gitaru
(1978), Masinga (1981), Kiambere (1988), Sasumua (1956) and Ndakaini (Thika,
1993). There is a need to construct the High Grand Falls Dam. In addition, many
small dams/pans have been constructed by private individuals, institutions and
communities.
WRMA management strategies for the Tana Catchment Area, with an annual
average rainfall of 679 mm, include the utilization of underexploited natural
aquifers. In considering the development of additional groundwater storage,
artificial groundwater recharge techniques will be one way to ensure better use of
water resources.
The region expects to carry out planned activities during the next 10 years,
including:
 Two dams, each of 1 MCM capacity.

 A dam of 4–5 BCM capacity.
 Five small dams, each of 0.2 MCM capacity.
 Five sand dams / check dams / pans / rock catchments, each of 100–1,000 m3
capacity.
 Groundwater survey and mapping.
 Rainwater harvesting in 1,000 households/institutions.

27
3.2.4 Principles of Water Resources Management
Water supply systems are based mostly on natural water resources. The
increasing awareness of the environment and natural resources, the rising global
demand for water (especially since the 1990s) and the decline in water
availability from natural resources intensify the need for consistent, rational and
integrative water use management.
The increasing emphasis on environmental and ecological approaches, the role of

water in preserving natural resources and the several regional catastrophes that
took place during the 1990s due to unplanned utilization of natural resources (or
flawed management of resources, such as mines and sewage, causing
contamination of water sources) have resulted in a pressing need for effective
water resources management.
This activity includes principally:
 Judicious management of water consumption, utilizing tools and techniques

that are outside the sphere of engineering (education, promotion campaigns,
economic policy, etc.).
 Long-term study of water source features, as well as ways to ensure
sustainability.
 Balancing of volumes used vis-à-vis replaceable amounts.
 Introduction and implementation of metering and monitoring systems.
 Incorporation of sophisticated tools and techniques adopted from statistical
disciplines, operations research and natural resources management, as a basis
for the preparation of activity/work programs – both short-term programs
with an operational orientation (answering the question "how?"), as well as
long-term programs with an infrastructure orientation (answering the question
"what?").
Integration of the above activities will form the basis for a water resources
management plan that takes into consideration all elements within a single
holistic system, including consumers, ecological conservation and environmental
protection.
3.2.4.1 Study of Water Source Features
Often, the unique characteristics of the sources are not sufficiently understood.
Most countries keep regular records of water resources data. Experience has
shown that a long-term study and understanding of the diversity and quality of
natural water sources, together with effective monitoring and measurement, is a
prerequisite for effective and sustainable water source management. Many
instances exist in which natural water sources have been utilized without an
adequate knowledge or understanding of recharge processes, aquifer
characteristics, surface water features, etc. Uses that do not preserve a sustainable

28
balance can cause ecological catastrophes. Resource management that is not

backed by reliable and accurate measurements and understanding of trends can
lead to erroneous decisions regarding pumping policies and overexploitation.
It should also be noted that the evaluation of water volumes, assessment of the
impact of climate change on rainfall and hydrological conditions, and the drafting
of appropriate natural resources policies have become pressing issues in the past
decade. At this early stage, it is very difficult to quantify future water availability
and hydrological potential based on climate change models.
3.2.4.2 Introduction and Implementation of Measurement and Monitoring Systems
In order to apply decision support systems based on real and accurate data, there
is a need for multiannual recording, documentation, monitoring and analysis of
data on water production and usage.
The main variables that should be rigorously monitored include the following:
 Amounts pumped and quality.

 Drilling, analysis of new water sources and inspection of aquifers.
 Examination of surface water and groundwater levels.
 Changes in ecological environments in the vicinity of pumping sites.
 Measurement of water demand on the part of large consumers.
 Multiannual flows, rainfall, number of precipitation days and other events.
 Other measurements – atmospheric water, soil moisture, etc.
Progressive forward thinking, coupled with initiation and application of

monitoring and measurement systems, is an essential precondition for water
resources management. This approach can be summed up in the saying "What is
not measureable is not manageable".
Sufficient information that is both relevant and accurate should be made available
to decision-makers in order to enable them to make well-informed choices.
Moreover, in addition to data, tools and instruments for analysis and evaluation
should also be utilized.
3.2.4.3 Application of Management Tools and Models
All too frequently it is the abundance of available data that challenges system
engineers to develop tools to predict variables that characterize water systems.
These include available water quantity, general engineering variables,
meteorological prediction models and surface water modelling. The environment
of uncertainty gives rise to the dire need to develop and apply appropriate tools to
manage and coordinate natural water systems and promote decision-making.

29
Conditions of uncertainty are the main factor influencing decision-making in

natural water management. Adaptation of risk management models from diverse
disciplines such as finance, insurance and demography have been found to be the
most suitable for management of natural resources and water. Analysis of
historical data, understanding of trends and preparation of predictions based on
statistical values enable decision-making at differing risk levels, each involving
different financial costs and engineering variables.
In addition to statistical models, other models may include hydraulic models of

water conveyance and pumping systems (for energy efficiency), models for the
location of seepages and water losses from regional and local systems, and
hydraulic models for the assessment of surface water flows, to name just a few.
In general, operations analysis within the sphere of water supply systems

demands regular hands-on activities by trained engineering staff.
3.2.5 Proposed Actions
3.2.5.1 Proposed Groundwater Management Plan
Institution of urgent aquifer management and protection / conservation programs

with focus on the following aspects:
 Incorporation of the subject of groundwater management into policy and

planning.
 Improvement of the knowledge base on aquifers within the Coast Province by
improving both institutional and human resources in the relevant institutions
responsible for water resources management.
 Implementation of suitable monitoring programs for aquifers within the Coast
Province.
 Improvement in data collection, management, storage and dissemination.
 Enhancement of active involvement by groundwater users in aquifer
management.
 Encouragement of and campaigning for concerted public support for
groundwater resources management.
 Managed aquifer recharge: the "Kenya Groundwater governance case study"
(November 2010) indicates that this a major issue for WRMA. The
recommendation indicates that WRMA shall incorporate Groundwater
recharge as a policy.
3.2.5.2 Proposed Surface Water Management Plan
The following measures are proposed for surface water resources management in
CWSB's area of jurisdiction:

30
 Enhancement of hydrometric measurements of the river and stream systems

within the Coast Province, including establishment of new gauging stations
where necessary, and ensuring that measurements are taken in the existing
stations at the required frequency in order to eliminate gaps in the data
collected.
 Establishment of environmental flows for all perennial rivers and streams in
the province in order to protect the aquatic environment both inland and in
the delta region.
 Determination in accordance with Water Resources Management Rules,
2006, the reserve for each of the water resources in order to guarantee
equitable utilization between the various competing demands.
 Ensuring viable programs are in place for conservation of each catchment
against degradation. A comprehensive catchment programme should be
implemented. The programme should include: sedimentation reduction
strategies, community land use limitations.
3.3 Potential of Surface Water Resources
Future water resources' are presented as 'potential water resources' which shall be
developed for water supply in the Coast province
3.3.1 Mkurumudzi Dam
Mkurumudzi River originates in the Shimba Hills and flows southeast to the
Indian Ocean. Mkurumudzi Dam is being developed to supply water for the new
titanium mine by the Australian company Base Titanium. The quantity of
titanium in the mine is assumed to suffice for 15 years of mining operations.
After mining operations are terminated, the source can be used for Msambweni
District. Hence, it is suggested that CWSB make appropriate arrangements to
take over management of the dam once the mining operations end. However it
should be emphasized that the dam will not be available in the near future.
The main parameters of Mkurumudzi Dam are as follows:

(Source: Borehole and Completion Report, Msambweni Area, Kwale, South Coast,
by Tiomin Resources Inc., June 2005). Dam height was not definitely established at
the time of preparing this report (the mining company is still exploring possibilities
of the dam expansion)
 Purpose: Mining
 Catchment area 125 km2
 Gross storage 8.0 MCM
 Flooded area 140 ha
 Daily yield, min/max 19,000/28,000 m3/d
 Annual yield, min/max 6.94/10.22 MCM/y

31
3.3.2 Tana River
3.3.2.1 General
The Tana River originates in the area of Aberdare Mountains and is the longest
river in Kenya. According to the current study by TAHAL/Bhundia (see Water
Resources Report, December 2012), the lowest measured flow (frequency of
100%) in the past 60 years is 8.5 m3/s; the sustainable flow is 43 m3/s (frequency
of 95%).
This source has been proposed for various water supply, irrigation and
hydropower projects, as mentioned in the Catchment Management Plan and
Vision 2030. The main projects involve increasing storage capacity in upstream
areas and are expected to reduce available water in the downstream area and
moderate fluctuations between the rainy and dry seasons.
Under the jurisdiction of CWSB, there are only a few large abstractions around
the towns of Hola and Bura.
The river was indicated as a possible source in the LAPPSET Master Plan by JPC
& BAC /GKA. Two intake sites are considered for water abstraction for supply to
Lamu town from the Tana River. The first intake site is in the Nanighi area near
Hola Town at an estimated distance of 180 km from Lamu. The second intake site
is near Garsen Bridge, further downstream at a distance of about 80 km from
Lamu.
3.3.2.2 Current Study
Available daily streamflows measured at the 4G02 hydrometric station were

organized in descending order in order to create monthly and total flow duration
curves. Streamflow values at various frequencies were read from these curves to
serve as a basis for formulating recommendations regarding water abstraction
from the Tana River.
Fig. 3-4 presents the flow duration curve of all daily measured data at hydrometric
station 4G02 – Tana River at Garsen. Table 3-3 presents the daily flow duration
curves fractiles on a monthly and total period basis.

32
4G02-Tana Garsen-Discharge [m^3/s]
300
Average Daily Flow (cumecs)

120
90
250
60
Average Daily Flow (cumecs)
30
200
0
50 60 70 80 90 100
% of Time
150
100
50
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of Time
Fig. ‎3-5: Tana River at Garsen Hydrometric Station 4G02 –

flow duration curve of all measured daily flows (1950–1998)
Table ‎3-4: Tana River at Garsen Hydrometric Station 4G02 –

Flow Duration Curves Fractiles of All Measured Daily Flows (1950–1998)
% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Total
50 108.7 74.8 66.4 107.9 154.7 143.2 96.3 72.9 66.9 62.7 118.4 147.1 101.0
90 67.7 40.3 29.6 48.0 95.4 80.9 63.6 54.8 45.2 44.9 67.0 92.0 55.7
95 56.3 33.0 27.8 35.5 78.4 73.3 58.4 50.9 41.5 37.4 58.8 86.2 44.7
100 33.0 23.1 16.0 16.0 37.9 57.1 46.0 27.2 19.4 8.5 44.5 62.5 8.5
3.3.3 Mwache Dam
3.3.3.1 General
The Mwache River was identified by JICA in the National Water Master Plan
1992 (NWMP 1992) as a possible river for damming. The JICA study team
suggested the river as a viable source for urban water supply, mainly to Mombasa
city. The location suggested in NWMP 1992 is 5 km from Mazeras tanks and a
few kilometres before the river debouches to the sea at Port Reitz.
The Government of Kenya selected Mwache Dam to be a flagship project as part

of Vision 2030.

33
3.3.3.2 CES/APEC Study
The Ministry of Regional Development Authorities (MoRDA) awarded

Consulting Engineering Services (India) Private Limited (CES), in association
with APEC Consortium Ltd., the assignment of carrying out the feasibility study
and detailed design for the Mwache Multipurpose Dam Development Project on
the Mwache River. The study commenced in June 2010 and is currently in its
final stages.
CES/APEC initially designed the dam height 85 m above ground level, with a
gross capacity of 200 MCM and dead storage of 4 MCM. After discussions with
World Bank experts, CES/APEC lowered the dam height to 65 m above ground
level, with a gross capacity of 120 MCM and dead storage of 20 MCM. Dead
storage volumes were increased following the sedimentation analysis.
The only available records of the Mwache are from river gauging station 3MA03,
which was active for 14 years (1976–1990). The minimum and maximum annual
(June to May) flow during these 14 years were 75 MCM and 186 MCM,
respectively.
A measurement period of 14 years is insufficient for designing big dams like

Mwache, because it usually cannot capture extreme flows during droughts and
floods.
CES/APEC used the STOMSA (Stochastic Model of South Africa) method to

generate 50 years of flows. The results of the hydrological analysis by CES/APEC
are as follows:
 Average annual water availability: 112.54 MCM.

 75% dependable annual water availability: 88.4 MCM.
Table ‎3-5 presents a comparison between measured rainfall in the period 1976–
1989 (corresponding to the 14 years of gauged flow) and measured rainfall over a
50-year period.
Table ‎3-5: Averages and Standard Deviations of Precipitations for 14 and 50 years
Period Average St. dev.

Station Ratio
(years) (mm/y) (mm/y)
1961–2009 1081.3 292.0
Malindi 1.17
1976–1989 1082.0 249.3

34
1957–2011 1165.8 375.5

Msabaha 1.55
1976–1989 1166.3 242.9
1959–2010 1308.8 367.6
Mtwapa 1.42
1976–1989 1321.1 258.6
Table ‎3-5 shows that:
 The average annual rainfall is consistent for both the short period (14 years)
and the long period.
 The standard deviation is greater by 45–50% in the long period.
Based on the above comparison, the low flows of the Mwache River may be
expected to be lower than those calculated by CES/APEC (70 MCM/y).
The available monthly streamflows measured at the Mwache River hydrometric

station 3MA03 were applied using the MRS monthly rainfall-runoff model1
calibrated for the period of available records, 1976/77–1989/90. The monthly
rainfall used as input to the model input was based on the Theissen procedure as
related to five rainfall stations having monthly data for the period 1958/59–
2008/2009. Following completion of calibration, the model was applied to
simulate monthly flows for the latter period.
Table ‎3-6: Measured Mean Monthly Flows at 3MA03 Hydrometric Station (m3/s)
YEAR JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
1976/77 4.474 2.457 1.225 4.423 1.871 3.786 6.481 5.464 2.743 5.050 8.882 2.091
1977/78 1.669 3.687 2.471 4.439 8.768 10.826 11.455 5.004 3.859 7.016 6.776 9.222
1978/79 2.357 1.708 1.370 1.390 0.000 6.366 7.319 4.759 3.415 6.320 4.129 8.514
1979/80 8.225 2.010 1.769 1.810 1.941 4.528 2.746 1.777 1.500 1.700 3.346 1.852
1980/81 1.357 2.400 16.752 1.754 0.420 6.372 5.975 1.815 0.000 14.259 6.765 3.115
1981/82 2.433 1.492 0.689 2.764 3.726 3.676 5.321 1.940 1.193 0.017 4.056 20.333
1982/83 3.175 2.901 1.728 1.733 4.191 3.764 4.872 1.038 0.000 3.500 2.343 5.989
1983/84 4.585 2.108 1.525 1.954 1.092 0.969 1.564 1.318 0.000 1.600 6.769 3.470
1984/85 1.819 1.781 0.736 0.750 1.578 6.283 4.056 3.522 4.563 1.299 2.178 5.238
1985/86 1.055 3.782 1.840 0.750 0.690 2.989 3.803 1.301 1.265 5.418 6.746 11.082
1986/87 5.645 1.323 1.500 0.000 1.498 4.876 6.086 2.645 1.016 0.000 3.882 12.179
1987/88 1.753 1.650 2.754 1.510 1.800 0.510 1.867 4.378 1.128 7.574 8.279 2.409
1988/89 7.141 1.281 0.893 1.147 1.300 3.614 3.796 4.320 0.000 3.861 4.463 4.760
1989/90 1.974 1.970 0.940 4.200 5.800 2.606 3.632 2.399 1.067 8.400 4.064 2.292
1
MRS is a rainfall-runoff model developed by TAHAL, which is described in Annex 1.

35
Table ‎3-7: Major Characteristics of the Rainfall Stations
Available Data Area of Mean

Mwache Annual Rainfall
Name Code Base Station
Original Completed Basin (mm)
(km2)
Voi 9338001 1960–1988 1959–2009 Msabaha 101 556
Mackinnon 9339002 1963–1994(1) 1959–2009 Maji, Kayafungo 1,895 494
Makamini 9339049 1971–1985 1959–2009 Maji, Mackinnon 953 630
Mariakani 9339057 1977–2009 1959–2009 Maji, Kayafungo 575 772
Mazeras 9339048 1971–1995 1959–2009 Port Reitz, Mariakani 81 987
1 Data include records relating to the 1926–1947 period, not used in the present study.
Completion of missing data was done based on monthly linear regressions (with
correlation coefficient equal to at least 0.7). Some gaps were filled in by the mean
multi-annual value.
90.0
80.0
OBS
70.0 SIM
60.0
Monthly Volume (MCM)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1/6/76 26/2/79 22/11/81 18/8/84 15/5/87 8/2/90
Fig. ‎3-6: Mwache Hydrometric Station 3MA03 – comparison between observed and
simulated monthly hydrographs

36
90.0
80.0
OBS
70.0 SIM
60.0
Monthly Volume (MCM)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of Time
Fig. ‎3-7: Mwache Hydrometric Station 3MA03 – comparison between observed and
simulated monthly flow duration curves (1976/77–1989/90)

37
Table ‎3-8: Mwache Reservoir Site –

Simulated Monthly Flows (MCM), 1958/59–2007/08
YEAR JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY ANNUAL
1958/59 9.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 31.0 23.0 112.0
1959/60 9.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 39.0
1960/61 1.0 14.0 11.0 118.0 232.0 303.0 156.0 120.0 106.0 95.0 86.0 77.0 1319.0
1961/62 69.0 62.0 56.0 51.0 45.0 41.0 37.0 33.0 30.0 27.0 38.0 38.0 527.0
1962/63 31.0 24.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 14.0 25.0 14.0 9.0 8.0 11.0 18.0 199.0
1963/64 8.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 57.0 17.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 119.0
1964/65 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 37.0 9.0 2.0 1.0 44.0 20.0 27.0 151.0
1965/66 22.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 17.0 16.0 78.0
1966/67 6.0 3.0 4.0 28.0 88.0 54.0 14.0 11.0 13.0 16.0 24.0 20.0 281.0
1967/68 26.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 14.0 9.0 5.0 33.0 12.0 9.0 10.0 151.0
1968/69 8.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 11.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 66.0
1969/70 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 20.0
1970/71 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 34.0
1971/72 2.0 2.0 1.0 11.0 7.0 6.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 24.0 24.0 88.0
1972/73 9.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 26.0
1973/74 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 12.0
1974/75 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 13.0
1975/76 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 9.0
1976/77 1.0 1.0 3.0 17.0 20.0 24.0 22.0 9.0 4.0 9.0 18.0 12.0 140.0
1977/78 6.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 24.0 26.0 19.0 4.0 2.0 23.0 39.0 155.0
1978/79 20.0 12.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 90.0
1979/80 3.0 10.0 9.0 25.0 16.0 17.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 115.0
1980/81 3.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 47.0 87.0 164.0
1981/82 30.0 25.0 20.0 19.0 16.0 16.0 11.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 23.0 24.0 207.0
1982/83 20.0 12.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 7.0 18.0 11.0 112.0
1983/84 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 11.0 15.0 28.0 16.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 101.0
1984/85 8.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 9.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 7.0 50.0 35.0 126.0
1985/86 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 34.0 20.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 18.0 22.0 162.0
1986/87 10.0 13.0 11.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 81.0
1987/88 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 9.0 20.0 9.0 66.0
1988/89 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 24.0 28.0 2.0 70.0
1989/90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 15.0 21.0 46.0
1990/91 16.0 11.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 51.0
1991/92 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 15.0
1992/93 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 12.0
1993/94 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 8.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 11.0 13.0 44.0
1994/95 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 8.0 26.0
1995/96 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 15.0
1996/97 4.0 2.0 1.0 13.0 30.0 33.0 25.0 47.0 10.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 186.0
1997/98 7.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 6.0 4.0 46.0
1998/99 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 20.0
1999/00 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 10.0
2000/01 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0
2001/02 0.0 0.0 2.0 16.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 5.0 47.0
2002/03 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 25.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 43.0
2003/04 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 10.0
2004/05 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 79.0 39.0 136.0
2005/06 20.0 14.0 13.0 34.0 58.0 65.0 46.0 22.0 16.0 15.0 13.0 14.0 330.0
2006/07 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 86.0
2007/08 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 28.0
Average 8.3 6.4 5.2 8.9 12.5 16.0 11.6 8.9 6.5 7.4 14.1 13.9 119.8

38
3.3.3.4 Reservoir operation
After discussions with WB experts and client staff it was decided that
TAHAL/Bhundia will continue with a deterministic approach as opposed to the
stochastic approach of CES/APEC. Reservoir operation calculated on the basis of
continuous sequence where the initial boundary for the calculation of the total
availability of water to the T year is based on the result of the remaining water in
the reservoir to the T-1 year. In the case of Mwache dam where there is a data
series of the annual rainfall and the rainfall-runoff model was calibrated there is
no advantages to run the simulation on probabilistic approach but to do it on the
simulation approach as done.
Two series of flows were analysed, the first with a coefficient of variance 0.3 that
reflects the common figure in the Kenyan rivers, the second with coefficient of
variance 0.5 that reflects climate change severe affects.
The results of the reservoir operation model shows that the reliability of water
supply from Mwache Dam can increase from 90.9% to 95.5% by increasing the
reservoir volume to 150MCM.
The climate change affects severely on the reliability levels, mainly due to four
consecutive years of droughts in the model.
Table ‎3-9: Reliability Levels of Different Reservoir Volumes
Annual Reliability Monthly Reliability

Volume [MCM] Urban Irrigation Urban Irrigation
120 90.9% 90.9% 97.6% 96.4%
150 95.5% 95.5% 99.3% 98.7%
180 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Table ‎3-10: Reliability Levels of Different Reservoir Volumes (Climate Change

Considerations)
Annual Reliability Monthly Reliability

Volume [MCM] Urban Irrigation Urban Irrigation
120 80.0% 80.0% 90.7% 85.4%
150 86.7% 83.3% 92.1% 87.5%
180 86.7% 83.3% 92.7% 88.6%
200 90.0% 86.7% 93.2% 88.8%
3.3.3.5 Geotechnical Feasibility
A rockfill dam can be constructed at the proposed location on the Mwache River.

39
Excavation of rock layers from the flooded area can provide the required
construction materials for the dam: the rock layer, the shale, gravel and sand for
filters. The relatively thin cover of clay above the local sandstone may be used as
core fill. Otherwise clay should be imported.
According to the feasibility study and detailed design for the Mwache dam by
CES it is suggested that the dam will be a concrete dam instead of a rock fill dam
as previously suggested by both team. On a meeting held with the WB and CES
team it was concluded that the detailed design made by CES will be the major
design document, and that the master plan will adopt the conclusions of the
design.
The layer of the lower Taru grits is a good foundation layer for the dam.
It seems as if this layer is massive and has low permeability. The upper Mariakani
and especially Mazeras layers have open fissures, horizontal and vertical. Thus
the contact between the dam and the riverbanks should be treated to prevent flow
and erosion.
For further details regarding geotechnical issues, see Annex 5.
Fig. ‎3-8: Volume – Area – Elevation Curve for the proposed Mwache Reservoir

40
548,000 550,000 552,000 554,000 556,000 558,000 560,000

9,568,000
9,568,000
!P
9,566,000
9,566,000
9,564,000
9,564,000
!(
9,562,000
9,562,000
!(
sarezaM
9,560,000
9,560,000
!P
Mwache
9,558,000
9,558,000
Dam Base Elevation: 25m
Dam length: 570m
Flooding Elev.: 105m
!(
9,556,000
9,556,000
ognajaM
9,554,000
9,554,000
548,000 550,000 552,000 554,000 556,000 558,000 560,000

!(
Fig. ‎3-9: Layout Map of the proposed Flooded Area of Mwache Reservoir
3.3.4 Rare Dam
3.3.4.1 General
The Rare River was identified in NWMP 1992 by JICA as a possible river for
damming. The JICA study team suggested the seasonal river as a viable source for
urban water supply for the growing urban centres of Kilifi and Malindi. The
location suggested in NWMP 1992 is 3 km upstream of the crossing of the Rare
River and the Sabaki Pipeline.
NWMP 1992 indicated a dam with a gross storage capacity of 37 MCM and
annual yield of 15.7 MCM.
The Kenyan Government chose the Rare Dam to be a flagship project as part of
Vision 2030.

41
NWCPC is in the process of selecting consultants to carry out a feasibility study

and detailed design for a dam on the Rare River.
Conversion of the simulated Mwache River monthly streamflows to the other

rivers was performed by using transfer coefficients based on the ratios of basin
areas, basin mean annual rainfalls, basin mean runoff coefficients (being a
function of soils and soil cover) and basin mean contribution to surface runoff
(being a function of lithological and geological characteristics) to their
corresponding values in the 3MA03 hydrometric station basin.
Table ‎3-11: General and Model Parameters of the Rare River
Parameter Value
Area (A) 6,138

Rainfall (R) 690.1
CN 74.9
Contribution to surface runoff (SR) 93.8
Ai/Ah 1.703
Ri/Rh 0.957
CNi/CNh 0.99
SRi/SRh 1.00
Combined transfer coefficient 1.600
Table ‎3-12: Rare Reservoir Site – Simulated Monthly Flows (MCM), 1958/59–2007/08
YEAR JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY ANNUAL
1958/59 14.4 12.8 11.2 11.2 9.6 8.0 8.0 6.4 6.4 4.8 49.6 36.8 179.2
1959/60 14.4 6.4 4.8 3.2 9.6 4.8 3.2 3.2 4.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 62.4
1960/61 1.6 22.4 17.6 188.8 371.3 484.9 249.6 192.0 169.6 152.0 137.6 123.2 2110.8
1961/62 110.4 99.2 89.6 81.6 72.0 65.6 59.2 52.8 48.0 43.2 60.8 60.8 843.4
1962/63 49.6 38.4 27.2 24.0 20.8 22.4 40.0 22.4 14.4 12.8 17.6 28.8 318.5
1963/64 12.8 9.6 8.0 6.4 6.4 4.8 91.2 27.2 6.4 4.8 4.8 8.0 190.4
1964/65 6.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 1.6 59.2 14.4 3.2 1.6 70.4 32.0 43.2 241.6
1965/66 35.2 11.2 4.8 1.6 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 9.6 1.6 27.2 25.6 124.8
1966/67 9.6 4.8 6.4 44.8 140.8 86.4 22.4 17.6 20.8 25.6 38.4 32.0 449.7
1967/68 41.6 17.6 14.4 11.2 9.6 22.4 14.4 8.0 52.8 19.2 14.4 16.0 241.6
1968/69 12.8 9.6 11.2 8.0 8.0 17.6 9.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 4.8 4.8 105.6
1969/70 4.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 4.8 32.0
1970/71 3.2 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.6 54.4

42
1971/72 3.2 3.2 1.6 17.6 11.2 9.6 12.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 38.4 38.4 140.8
1972/73 14.4 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 3.2 1.6 1.6 3.2 1.6 3.2 3.2 41.6
1973/74 4.8 6.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.8 19.2
1974/75 1.6 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.6 20.8
1975/76 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 14.4
1976/77 1.6 1.6 4.8 27.2 32.0 38.4 35.2 14.4 6.4 14.4 28.8 19.2 224.0
1977/78 9.6 4.8 4.8 3.2 6.4 38.4 41.6 30.4 6.4 3.2 36.8 62.4 248.0
1978/79 32.0 19.2 14.4 12.8 11.2 9.6 11.2 8.0 6.4 6.4 8.0 4.8 144.0
1979/80 4.8 16.0 14.4 40.0 25.6 27.2 14.4 8.0 8.0 11.2 8.0 6.4 184.0
1980/81 4.8 6.4 4.8 3.2 3.2 6.4 8.0 3.2 3.2 4.8 75.2 139.2 262.4
1981/82 48.0 40.0 32.0 30.4 25.6 25.6 17.6 12.8 12.8 11.2 36.8 38.4 331.3
1982/83 32.0 19.2 14.4 12.8 11.2 9.6 8.0 8.0 6.4 11.2 28.8 17.6 179.2
1983/84 9.6 6.4 4.8 3.2 3.2 17.6 24.0 44.8 25.6 9.6 6.4 6.4 161.6
1984/85 12.8 6.4 4.8 3.2 3.2 14.4 4.8 3.2 1.6 11.2 80.0 56.0 201.6
1985/86 12.8 11.2 9.6 8.0 9.6 54.4 32.0 20.8 19.2 17.6 28.8 35.2 259.2
1986/87 16.0 20.8 17.6 11.2 9.6 8.0 8.0 6.4 6.4 8.0 8.0 9.6 129.6
1987/88 6.4 4.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 6.4 11.2 4.8 1.6 14.4 32.0 14.4 105.6
1988/89 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 8.0 6.4 1.6 0.0 38.4 44.8 3.2 112.0
1989/90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.8 4.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 24.0 33.6 73.6
1990/91 25.6 17.6 6.4 4.8 3.2 4.8 4.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 3.2 3.2 81.6
1991/92 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 6.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 24.0
1992/93 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 19.2
1993/94 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 12.8 4.8 1.6 1.6 0.0 17.6 20.8 70.4
1994/95 3.2 3.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 12.8 41.6
1995/96 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 11.2 24.0
1996/97 6.4 3.2 1.6 20.8 48.0 52.8 40.0 75.2 16.0 11.2 11.2 11.2 297.7
1997/98 11.2 8.0 8.0 6.4 4.8 4.8 4.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 9.6 6.4 73.6
1998/99 4.8 4.8 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.2 4.8 32.0
1999/00 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 16.0
2000/01 3.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 6.4
2001/02 0.0 0.0 3.2 25.6 11.2 8.0 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 9.6 8.0 75.2
2002/03 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.2 40.0 4.8 0.0 8.0 1.6 68.8
2003/04 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 3.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 16.0
2004/05 3.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 126.4 62.4 217.6
2005/06 32.0 22.4 20.8 54.4 92.8 104.0 73.6 35.2 25.6 24.0 20.8 22.4 528.1
2006/07 19.2 17.6 16.0 14.4 12.8 11.2 9.6 8.0 8.0 6.4 6.4 8.0 137.6
2007/08 8.0 6.4 6.4 4.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 44.8
Average 13.3 10.3 8.3 14.3 20.1 25.5 18.6 14.2 10.5 11.8 22.6 22.2 191.7
3.3.4.3 Geotechnical Feasibility
Three sites were studied:
 "Rare School" at 582100/9617030, close to the local school.

 "Rare Mangndo" at 581200/9620200, close to the Mangndo Irrigation
Project.
 "Rare Pipe" at 583860/9617710, close to the river crossing of the water pipe.
The "Rare Pipe" site was found to be the most appropriate for the required dam. A
rockfill dam can be constructed at this location.

43
Local materials are available for dam construction:
 The local black sandstone is the main source for construction materials for
the rockfill layer of the dam.
 Local shale, gravel and sand are available for filters.
 Clay for the core is available in the highlands north of the river.
The existing black sandstone could also be a good foundation layer for the dam.
The riverbanks and their contact to the dam should be treated to prevent flow and
erosion.
For further details regarding geotechnical issues, see Annex 5.
Fig. ‎3-10: Volume – Area – Elevation Curve for the proposed Rare Reservoir

44
574,000 576,000 578,000 580,000 582,000 584,000 586,000

9,626,000
9,626,000
9,624,000
9,624,000
9,622,000
9,622,000
9,620,000
9,620,000
9,618,000
9,618,000
!P
Rare
Dam Base Elevation: 44m
Dam length: 220m
9,616,000
9,616,000
Flooding Elev.: 84m
9,614,000
9,614,000
574,000 576,000 578,000 580,000 582,000 584,000 586,000
Fig. ‎3-11: Layout Map of the proposed Flooded Area of Rare Reservoir
3.4 Potential of Groundwater Resources
The analysis of groundwater potential in the South Coast included the following
stages:
 Review of previous studies and available data for the hydrogeology of the
study area.
 Identification of data gaps.
 Construction of a regional flow model based on the existing data, with
simplifying assumptions.
 Model calibration and assessment of seawater intrusion according to different
pumping scenarios.
The Stage 1 model runs studied the general flow regime and the parameters
affecting seawater intrusion for the Tiwi and Msambweni areas as part of the

45
South Coast. The parameters affecting seawater intrusion were analyzed

specifically for Tiwi area and included:
 Amount of recharge to the aquifer (two scenarios – high and low).

 Amount of pumping (two scenarios – high and low).
 Distance from the ocean.
The Stage 2 model runs studied the flow regime in the Tiwi and Msambweni
areas assuming conservative conditions: lower topography and lower recharge. A
transient run simulated the effect of high pumping and seawater intrusion rate for
a 20-year period, both in Tiwi and Msambweni.
The conclusions regarding groundwater potential in the South Coast include:
 Groundwater potential determined for Tiwi and Msambweni areas is

approximately 20,000 m3/d (7.5 MCM) and 30,000 m3/d (11 MCM),
respectively.
 The analysis indicates that additional wellfields may be developed south of
Msambweni.
 Major data gaps were identified and a plan of required actions and further
investigation is outlined. It is emphasized that the required actions are
mandatory before any new wellfield is developed, or any significant changes
in pumping policy are decided on. The most critical parts of the required
actions include:
 Drilling of deep exploratory/monitoring wells for detecting the seawater-
freshwater interface location and depth.
 Performance of an accurate well survey.
 Performance of water level measurements – long-term, regular records.
 Performance of water quality measurements – long-term, regular records.
 Survey of pollution sources.
See Annex 6 for additional data regarding the model runs.
3.5 Potential of Deep Groundwater
3.5.1 Overview and Preliminary Analysis
Data from deep oil and gas exploration wells in Kenya were reviewed in order to
assess whether potential deep groundwater exists. This analysis is based on the
assumption that the Coast Province in Kenya may share the same
hydrogeological characteristics with the Tanzania Coast area (the area of
Dar es Salaam), where a deep and highly productive aquifer of immense volume
and excellent water quality was recently discovered and investigated.
General and detailed geological information was collected from the data reviewed
for 13 of the deep wells in Kenya. Information included: stratigraphy, top and

46
base of the Neogene Sequence, thickness and depth to the Neogene Sequence,
etc.
The Consultant reviewed data from deep oil and gas exploration wells, including
reports and well logs.
Information gathered from the reports and well logs included:
 Well depth.
 Stratigraphy – geological units found in the well logs.
 Top and base of the Neogene Sequence (specifically Miocene).
 Thickness of the Neogene Sequence.
 Depth of the Neogene Sequence.
 Spatial extent of the Neogene Sequence based on well locations.
 Lithology – geological materials composing the relevant Neogene units.

47
Fig. ‎3-12: Alternative locations for deep exploratory/production wells for the
Neogene Aquifer
A cross-section along four deep wells located along the Tana River from inland
to the coast adjacent to the Lamu area revealed a Neogene Sequence of 400–
500 m thickness inland, increasing to 1,000–1,500 m close to the coastline. The
depth to this potential aquifer varies from several metres (about 5–30 m) in
Pandangua 1 and Walu 2 wells (near Tana River) to 150–200 m in other
locations.

48
Correlation of Top and Bottom Neogene in Deep wells in Lamu
Area, coastal Kenya
Garissa 1 Walu 2 Pandangua 1 Kipini 1
1000
758
500
132
92 51 23
Top Formation Elevation
0 86 -154
23
-281
-500
-385
-1000
-1006
-1500
-1678
-2000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance (Km)
Top Neogene Top Oligocene Surface Elevation
Fig. ‎3-13: Schematic cross-section of the Neogene Sequence between Garissa and
Kipini wells
The lateral continuity of the Neogene Aquifer is mapped and related to the
location of the Lamu Rift Basin. The potential aquifer units extend into the Lamu
area to the north, and narrow southwards, towards Mombasa.
Potential recharge of freshwater to this aquifer should be thoroughly investigated.

However, the location near Tana River is promising, as the river may serve as a
source of recharge to the aquifer in this area.
Further investigation of this potential aquifer is suggested by drilling of deep

wells to a depth of about 600 m. Three alternative locations are suggested, two in
the Lamu area and one along the Tana River between Pandangua 1 and Walu 2
wells. The Mombasa area appears to be less promising regarding the existence of
a deep aquifer due to the limited presence of Neogene formations south of
Malindi.
3.5.2 Recommendations: General Exploratory Plan
The neogenic aquifer should be further investigated by drilling exploratory

boreholes, performing pumping tests and study the replenishment mechanism of
the aquifer.

49
General exploratory plan:

Two wells to a depth of about 600 m are proposed for each of the
abovementioned areas, located within a distance of 300–500 m from each other.
In all proposed areas this depth covers a significant thickness of the Neogene
Sequence and will enable a study of both shallow and deep aquifer properties and
hydraulic relationships.
The wells will be opened to the potential Neogene Aquifer while the Pleistocene
Sequence (recent) will be separated by cementing the upper part of the well to
ensure that the target aquifer is explored and tapped.
3.6 Total Potential of Water Resources
The demand for water in the Coast Province is much above the supply. Despite
the high supply deficit, however, large and viable water sources exist in the
province that is yet to be developed (see Table ‎3-13).
The major sources of water in the Coast Province are:
 Tana River – minimum flow (100%) 8.5 m3/s and sustainable flow (95%)
44.7 m3/s.
 Mzima springs – minimum flow (100%) 2.6m3/s and sustainable flow (95%)
5.9m3/s
 Njoro Kubwa – safe yield is 4.5m3/s and sustainable flow (95%) 5.6m3/s
 Sabaki River – minimum flow (100%) 2.6 m3/s and sustainable flow (95%)
6.3 m3/s.
 Mwache River – mean annual flow 120 MCM/y.
 Rare River – mean annual flow 190 MCM/y.
 Tiwi Aquifer – 7.5 MCM/y.
 Msambweni Aquifer – 11 MCM/y.
 Desalination – this artificial source can cover the gap between supply from
natural resources and demand. Environmental impacts and energy costs
should in this context be investigated carefully.

50
Table ‎3-13: Installed Capacity and Potential of Water Resources in the Coast
Province
Current Potential
Resource /
Status capacity yield Comments
System
(m3/d) (m3/d)
Mzima Existing 35,000 105,000 Surpluses of Mzima reach Baricho
Baricho Existing 90,000 180,000 Low flow is Sabaki river 3.5 m3/s
Tiwi Existing 10,000 15,000
Marere Existing 8,000 12,000
Njoro Kubwa Springs Existing 2,700 100,000 Surpluses used for irrigation
Shella Wellfield Existing 1,800
Tana River Existing 1,400 Low flow is 8 m3/s
Mkanda Dam Existing 2,000 5,900 Used by local communities
Mwache Dam D/D – 220,000 Only 186,000 are dedicated to urban supply
Rare Dam F/S – 200,000 Initial figures
Mkurumudzi Dam D/D – 19,000 Will be used by Base Titanium
Msambweni Aquifer – – 20,000 Will be used by Base Titanium
Desalination – Economic and environmental limitations

Deep groundwater –
Without desalination, Tana River, and
Total 876,900
deep groundwater

51
4. Proposed Strategies and Scenarios

4.1 Defining Strategies for Development
In accordance with the national goals for the water sector, the various meetings
held with CWSB, WB and AFD, and the current study, the Master Plan team
identified three main strategies for development of water resources in the Coast
Province. Each strategy represents a firm concept regarding supply alternatives.
Development of the bulk water supply system consists in the development of

several water sources, water transmission mains, as well as other water works
components such as, inter alia, pumping stations and water treatment plants.
Where a single water supply scheme is developed it can be analysed as
standalone project with respect to its technical feasibility, economic viability and
other aspects. However, where development of a bulk water supply system is
involved, a different methodology must be adopted, allowing the system to be
investigated as a whole rather than examining each scheme separately. This is
essential because, strictly speaking, a bulk water supply scheme is not the sum of
its individual schemes. Apart from the water balance, where it is possible to add
up water production from each source to give the total water production, in all
others aspects – such as hydraulics, energy consumption, pipe diameters and
infrastructure layout – the various options in combination (scenarios) do not
produce the same results as a simple aggregation of the separate schemes.
For the above reason the methodology used for creation of the scenarios was
based on the following process:
 The water resources of the region were identified and analysed for water
production potential and sustainability. This was carried out mainly in the
Water Resources Report.
 Once the water resources were quantified with respect to their potential,
rationality was introduced in order to create a group of options for the
development plan. These groups were referred to as strategies for
development.
 Under each strategy a number of alternatives were created, all sharing a
common concept. Each one of the alternatives was referred to as a scenario.
The term alternative will be used later in the design report phase when several
physical options will be considered for the selected scenario, each physical
option being referred to as an alternative.
 A total of 8 scenarios were found and subjected to primary analysis in the
Pre-Feasibility Report. Of these, 4 scenarios were introduced in the feasibility
stage of the work. All the above 4 scenarios are based on the results of the
water resources study, water abstraction from them is feasible and no
constraints exist that could cause unavailability of water. The scenarios then
focus on the bulk water supply options (under each scenario) and on the main
delivery pipelines (layout, diameters, pressure) and pumping (installed

52
capacity, operation, energy) and economic considerations (both CAPEX and

OPEX).
The methodology used to create scenarios was described in detail in the Pre-
Feasibility Report dated August 2012. It is important to note that each scheme
was validated before being included in a scenario. As explained earlier, each
water resource was analysed as a standalone component in terms of its water
potential and future abstraction, following which it was merged into schemes and
scenarios.
It is for this reason that the Consultant insisted that the Water Resources Report
precede the feasibility study, preventing a situation in which the feasibility study
will contain scenarios based on unfeasible sources or schemes. On completion of
the water resources study, the scenarios created based on the Water Resources
Report ensure all resources are viable.
Two main guiding principles were defined with respect to the core concept of the
scenarios, namely:
 Each scenario must be balanced (i.e. water resources >= demand) in each
phase of development;
 Sequence of development must be such that high capital investment schemes
will be postponed to the future.
4.2 Coverage of the Master Plan
The water supply master plan covers the whole area of the Coast Province in
terms of water resources development. The master plan separates the coast
province to four different areas:
 Interconnected bulk system
 Lamu and Tana counties
 Taveta area
 Remote rural areas
Adequate solutions are analysed and proposed each of the distinct areas.
4.3 Meeting the Potential Demand
The initial phase of the water supply master plan study included demand
assessment. When calculating the demand for the immediate term of the plan –
namely 2020 – it was clear that the difference in the demand projection for the
year 2015 and the overall water consumption is huge. The total water demand
calculated for 2015 (roughly 150 MCM/y for the entire region) is nearly triple
then current water supply (some 150K–165K m/.d, equivalent to 55–58
MCM/y), Yet the actual demand is much less due to the high rate of inefficiency

53
of the network and its extreme water loss percentage .In other words, according
to the estimation, the water demands will double itself in a very short period of 3
years. This is unrealistic, as we know that the initiative for the increase in water
demand is the development of new water resources, including their infrastructure,
to supply water to the WSPs. Therefore, the following question arose: What will
be the actual water demand during the first phase of implementation, and should
the water supply master plan consider more conservative demand figures (i.e.,
less demand) regarding development of water resources in the immediate phase.
Fig. 4-1 shows the projection of water demand as calculated in the Water
Demand and Supply Assessment Report in several scenarios and the average. The
red dash-dot line shows the actual demand curve for the region starting with the
current 2012 water consumption, as reflected in CWSB data, up to the demand
calculated for horizon year 2035.
One may see that for the immediate phase of the development – 2020 – the total
project demand is 225 MCM/y while the actual assumed water demand curve
shows only 125 MCM/y. It is important to indicate that the actual water
consumption in CWSB's urban sector is less than the supply, as the current water
demand is assumed to be the overall supply less the water loss. Since the TWL
(total water loss) consists of both leakage and administrative losses, one cannot
calculate the portion of the TWL that is actually being consumed, and is not
metered or billed.
Fig. ‎4-1: Calculated demand curves, current (2012) consumption and actual curve
The development of new water resources is a time-consuming process and may

take several years. This refers not only to design and construction, but in the case
of new surface water resources also the time span it takes to fill the reservoir/dam
and thus make water supply available.

54
Mapping the resources for the region and their future potential (as done in the
water resources study) shows that 4-5 "big" water sources exist which are
relevant for development. Some other resources are relevant as well; however
their total yield is not significant in light of overall demand. Due to a lack of
financial resources, it is not reasonable to assume that all resources will be
developed concurrently (indeed, such a situation would render the master plan
redundant). The sequence of development is a key issue in the CWSB master plan
and was introduced as a core aspect for analysis from the pre-feasibility stage.
Hence, it is reasonable to assume that each of the major resources will be
developed in a separate phase. In parallel with the phases of development, the
main resources will be deployed for 2–3 mega-projects during the development
period. The water production curve will have the shape of a "step", with 2–3
steps. In this case, it is clear that following completion of the first water source
and actual production of water for the bulk system (from Mwache for example)
the total water potential will be greater than the ability of the network to receive
the new water. Thus the brown curve in fig 4-1 represent the actual proposed
demand curve.
As the region's resources are limited, once water resources are subjected to
ongoing development, the system will be constructed to 100% capacity, including
all required infrastructures (water treatment plant, pumping stations and water
main). At the same time, the local distribution networks will not be able to absorb
all the additional water; hence operation of the new system will be accordance
with the capacity of the WSP network. Only extension of the local networks and
reduction of losses will enable the supply and distribution of additional water,
works that are beyond the scope of the master plan. It is clear that the option to
develop sources gradually in accordance with the increase in demand does not
exist. That is why, in the final analysis, the master plan phases are coherent with
the stages of new water resources development, i.e. in every phase one big source
will be developed. This is reflected in all the scenarios.
New water resources will be developed to their capacity from Day 1 of the
construction period. However, due to the low demand at the time of completion,
actual supply will meet consumption and will therefore be lower than the
projected demand.
This situation will end in a relatively short period after supply increases. As water
losses will increase in the first year (due to the increase in pressure), and demand
will grow rapidly as water becomes more available and reliable, it is expected
that the actual demand curve will close the gap with the calculated curve.
For this reason, the master plan strategy is that the total available water should
meet the calculated demand curve in every phase of the development plan.

55
4.4 Water Supply Scenarios for the Interconnected Bulk System
Three main strategies for development were defined to guide the creation of
scenarios.
 Eight scenarios were created and studied during the Pre-Feasibility phase, 5
scenarios were studied during the feasibility phase.
 All scenarios were formulated according to guiding principles.
 Water balance must be achieved.
 Small scale sources (boreholes, small desalination systems, usage of saline
water) will continue to exist in the future, therefore allow 5% decrease in
supply.
 High capital investments schemes should postponed to future phases
 Robustness of the system must be achieved.
 The bulk water system will the demand of the twenty main townships and the
bulk rural consumers.
 5% of the demand will be supplied from small local sources.
Water balances and development scenarios are presented in Table 4-1.

56
Table ‎4-1: Water Resources Development by Phases – 5 Development Scenarios
Year 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Projected Population 2,907,067 3,521,284 4,130,325 4,839,196 5,669,727 6,642,798
Target Water Demand (incl. 25% NRW) 213,509 242,696 299,637 394,233 465,753 538,273
Target Water Demand (Less 5% local) 202,834 230,561 284,655 374,521 442,465 511,359
sources)
Existing capacity of water resources [m3/day] 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Tiwi Bh (existing) 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000
Marere (existing) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
Mzima 1 (existing) 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 0 0
Baricho 1 (existing) 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000
Others (locals) (existing) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
Total Existing Water Resources 162,000 162,000 162,000 162,000 127,000 127,000
Expected Water Deficit -40,834 -68,561 -122,655 -212,521 -315,465 -384,359
Development Scenarios
Scenario B1 Supply Year [m3/day] 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Baricho Immediate Expansion 2015 22,000 0 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000
Mwache Dam 2020 186,000 0 0 186,000 186,000 186,000 186,000
Baricho II - Full Expansion 2024 63,000 0 0 0 63,000 63,000 63,000
Mzima II * 2030 105,000 0 0 0 0 105,000 105,000
Msambweni Aquifer / Mkurumudzi Dam 2035 20,000 0 0 0 0 0 20,000
Total Available Water Resources 162,000 184,000 370,000 433,000 503,000 523,000
Surplus / Deficit -40,834 -46,561 85,345 58,479 60,535 11,641
*: The Mzima
Scenario B1.1 Supply Year [m3/day] II 2012
scheme 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Baricho Immediate Expansion 2015 22,000 will 0supply 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000
105,000
Mwache Dam 2020 186,000 0
m3/day and
0 186,000 186,000 186,000 186,000
Baricho II 2024 63,000 0
will replace
0 0 63,000 63,000 63,000
Rare Dam 2030 100,000 the 0 old 0 0 0 100,000 100,000
Msambweni Aquifer / Mkurumudzi Dam 2035 20,000 scheme 0 0 0 0 0 20,000
Surplus / Deficit -40,834 -46,561 85,345 58,479 55,535 6,641
Baricho II 2016 85,000 0 0 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000
Mwache Dam 2020 186,000 0 0 186,000 186,000 186,000 186,000
Rare Dam 2031 100,000 0 0 0 0 100,000 100,000
Surplus / Deficit -40,834 -68,561 148,345 58,479 55,535 6,641
Mwache Dam 2020 186,000 0 0 186,000 186,000 186,000 186,000
Rare Dam 2024 180,000 0 0 0 180,000 180,000 180,000
Surplus / Deficit -40,834 -68,561 63,345 153,479 50,535 1,641
Scenario C2 Supply Year [m3/day] 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Baricho Immediate Expansion 2015 22,000 0 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000
Mwache Dam 2020 186,000 0 0 186,000 186,000 186,000 186,000
Baricho II 2026 63,000 0 0 0 0 63,000 63,000
Desalination Plant I 2030 50,000 0 0 0 0 50,000 50,000
Desalination Plant II 2033 50,000 0 0 0 0 0 50,000
Surplus / Deficit -40,834 -46,561 85,345 -4,521 5,535 6,641

57
4.4.1 Scenario B1
4.4.1.1 Overview
The sequence of resources development according to Scenario B1 is presented in

Table 4-1 above. The presented information clearly indicates that three new water
resources will be developed in order to meet future water demand in the region,
commencing with Mwache at 84% of the total future dam yield to be abstracted
in Phase 1 to meet the mainland water demand (all urban water demand, except
for Lamu Region and the Tana River Delta). Subsequent development (Phase 2
and continuing to the development horizon) will include the extension of Baricho
Wellfield to sustain an additional 85,000 m3/d of water. This will bring the total
abstraction of water from the Baricho site to 175,000 m3/d, this being about 90-
95% of its maximum yield.
Fig. 4.2 shows the potential of water resources in the region in accordance with
the sequence suggested in Scenario B1. It is clear that in each one of the phases –
I, II – the total potential of resources is above the calculated demand, i.e. if the
actual demand is consistent with projections, the total available water from
resources at the end of each phase will be sufficient to meet the demand. Only at
the horizon stage will there be a deficit of 15,000 m3/day, which is about 2.5% of
the projected demand.
Fig. ‎4-2: Development of water resources vs. demand – Scenario B1

58
4.4.1.2 Phasing:
 Emergency Immediate Works for Water Supply – small expansion of

Baricho water works.
 Two new boreholes.
 Improvements of the Sabaki pipeline
 New Kakuyuni – Kilifi pipeline..
 Phase 1 (2020) – For the development of Mwache Dam, the entire reservoir
to conveyance system will be deployed, including the water treatment plant
downstream of the dam.
 The main pumping station will lift the water through a 40"/48" main
pipeline to the new water tank at elevation +100. No water will be
pumped to Mazeras tank.
 This tank will enable conveyance of water to both the Changamwe Water
Tank at +70 masl, and, as planned by the Mwache Dam designers, to the
+70 existing water tank at Nguu-Tatu.
 Implementation period of Mwache Dam: 2014 – 2018.
 Phase 2 (2025) – Full development of Baricho Wellfield, 85,000 m3/d.
 This phase will require implementation of the second Baricho Pipeline,
parallel to the existing one, with a 1,200 mm diameter, as well as
extension of the Baricho site itself.
 This may include activities along the southern shore of the Sabaki River
to locate new sites for pumping facilities in order to add the required
water volumes to the bulk water supply system.
 Moreover, an additional pipeline to Malindi will be needed.
 Implementation period for wellfield and pipelines: 2021 – 2023.
 Phase 3 (2035) – Development of Mzima Pipeline, which will deliver
105,000 m3/d via a new 220 km pipeline (abstraction of an additional 70,000
m3/d from this source).
 Msambweni Aquifer (Gongoni Forest) and Mkurumudzi Dam will be
available after the completion of mining works, and the development of
transmission works will add 20,000 m3/d.
 Implementation period of Mzima II: 2026 – 2029.
 Implementation period for South coast sources: 2035.

59
Checked 7th February 2013 Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h Development Legend
Mzima 1 35,000.00 1,458
Mzima 2 70,000.00 2,917 Existing
Total resources 105,000.00 4,375 Phase I
B1
Fig. ‎4-3:
Phase II
Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h Taita Phase III Main land north
Msambweni 20,000.00 Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h
Tiwi 13,000.00 Voi 16,357.60 681.57 Baricho 1 90,000.00 3,750.00
Marere 12,000.00 Mwatate 4,665.16 194.38 Baricho 2 85,000.00 3,541.67
0thers 12,000.00 Wundanyi 4,777.00 199 Rare Dam
Total resources 57,000.00 - Along the road (rural) 15,000.00 625 Total resources 175,000.00 7,291.67
Mariakani 10,150.00 423
Marere Total demad 50,949.76 2,123 Baricho

Mesambweni 54,050
Mwache Mezares tank

to Island 48,188.0 Mezares tank
Tiwi to North 34,248
to West Mlnd&Is 34,294
Main land south to South 69,270 Main land north
Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Total allocated 186,000 Bckup from Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h
Lunga Lunga/Vanga 11,709 487.8621989 Actual Supply 186,000 Mwache Mwache to Kisauni Marafa Z=90 3,402 141.75
Msambweni 4,809 200.3911481 Tank 34,248 Malindi Z=20 32,245 1,343.54
Ukunda/Tiwi 28,453 1185.536916 122,592 Watamu 13,819 575.79
Along the road 15,000 625
e tank
88,344 Nguu Tatu Klifi Z=20 13,240 551.66
likoni 53,134 2213.916667 Matwapa Z=20 21,699 904.14
tank
Block Diagram – Scenario B1

Kinango 4,489 187.060344 48,188 Kisanui (Mom) Z=20 122,888 5,120.33
Kwale 8,676 361.4874037 69,270
Mavueni -
Total demad 126,270 5261.254677
Chang Along the road (rural) 10,000.00 416.67
tank Total demad 217,293.07 9,053.88
Mombasa (Island & West M.L)
Main land south Balance Excl from mwache -69,270.11 Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Main land north Balance -8,045
West mainland 88,344.0 3,681.00
South Net balance Incl. from Mwache -0.11 Mombasa (Island) 48,188.0 2,007.83
Total demad 136,532.0 5,688.83
312,554.0 Mombasa Is & West M.L Balance 0.0
60
Fig. ‎4-4: Layout Map of Sequential Development – Scenario B1

61
4.4.2 Scenario B1.1
4.4.2.1 Overview
The sequence of resources development according to Scenario B1.1 is presented

in Table 4-1 above. The presented information clearly indicates that three new
water resources will be developed in order to meet future water demand in the
region, commencing with Mwache at 78% of the total future dam yield to be
abstracted in Phase 1 to meet the mainland water demand (all urban water
demand except for Lamu Region and the Tana River Delta). Subsequent
development (Phase 2 and continuing to the development horizon) will include
the extension of Baricho Wellfield to sustain an additional 85,000 m3/d of water.
This will bring the total abstraction of water from the Baricho site to 175,000
m3/d, some 95% of its maximum capacity.
Rare surface water reservoir will be included in the development plan to meet the
horizon year demand.
Fig. ‎4-5: Development of water resources vs. demand – Scenario B1.1

62
4.4.2.2 Phasing:

 Phase 1 (2020) – For the development of Mwache Dam the entire reservoir to
conveyance system will be deployed, including the water treatment plant
downstream of the dam.
 The main pumping station will lift the water through a 40"/48" main
pipeline to the new water tank at elevation +100. No water will be
pumped to Mazeras tank.
 This tank will enable conveyance of water to both the Changamwe Water
Tank at +70 masl, and, as planned by the Mwache Dam designers, to the
+70 existing water tank at Nguu-Tatu.
 Phase 2 (2025) – Full development of Baricho Wellfield, 85,000 m3/d.
 This phase will require implementation of the second Baricho Pipeline,
parallel to the existing one with 1,200 mm diameter, as well as extension
of the Baricho site itself.
 This may include activities along the southern shore of the Sabaki River
to locate new sites for pumping facilities in order to add the required
water volumes to the water bulk supply system.
 Moreover, an additional pipeline to Malindi will be needed.
 Phase 3 (2035) – Development of Rare Dam to supply 80,000 m3/d to Kilifi
and Mombasa.
 Implementation period of Rare Dam: 2026 – 2029.

63
Existing
Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h Phase I
Checked 7th Feb 2013 Mzima 1 35,000.00 1,458.33 Phase II
Mzima 2 - Phase III
Fig. ‎4-6:
Total resources 35,000.00 1,458.33
B1.1
Main land south Taita Main land north
Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h
Msambweni 20,000.00 Voi 16,357.60 681.57 Baricho 1 90,000.00 3,750.00
Tiwi 13,000.00 Mwatate 4,665.16 194.38 Baricho 2 85,000.00 3,541.67
Marere 12,000.00 Wundanyi 4,777.00 199.04 Rare Dam 100,000.00 4,166.67
0thers 12,000.00 Along the road (rural) 15,000.00 625.00 Total resources 275,000.00 7,291.67
Total resources 57,000.00 - Mariakani 10,150.00 422.92

Total demad 50,949.76 2,122.91
Marere
-15,950
Mesambweni Mwache
to Mariakani 31,905
Tiwi to Mombasa 78,825 Mezares tank Supply from Mwace to Mezares
to South 69,270 15,950 15,950
Main land south Total Mwache 186,000 Main land north
Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Actual Supply 164,045 Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h
Lunga Lunga/Vanga 11,709 487.8622 Marafa Z=90 3,402 141.75
Msambweni 4,809 200.3911 Mwache Tank Malindi Z=20 32,245 1,343.54
e tank
Block Diagram – Scenario B1.1

Ukunda/Tiwi 28,453 1185.537 30,637 57,707 Watamu 13,819 575.79
Along the road 15,000 625 Mombasa (Island & West M.L) Klifi Z=20 13,240 551.66
likoni 53,134 2213.917 48,188 Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Matwapa Z=20 21,699 904.14
Kinango 4,489 187.0603 West mainland 88,344.0 3,681.00 Kisanui (Mom) Z=20 122,888 5,120.33
Kwale 8,676 361.4874 69,270 Mombasa (Island) 48,188.0 2,007.83
Mavueni -
Total demad 126,270 5261.255 Total demad 136,532.0 5,688.83 Along the road (rural) 10,000.00 416.67
Total demad 217,293.07 9,053.88
Main land south Balance -0.11 Mombasa Is & West M.L) Balance 0 Main land north Balance 57,707
64
Fig. ‎4-7: Layout Map of Sequential Development – Scenario B1.1

65
4.4.3 Scenario B3
4.4.3.1 Overview
The sequence of resources development according to Scenario B3 is presented in

Table 4-1 above. During Phase 1, the Mwache dam will be constructed as in the
B1 and B1.1 options. From the discussion held in CWSB on the availability of
water from Mwache only by 2022 or thereabouts, it was concluded that
development of Baricho will be advanced to Phase I as well in order to ensure
supply even in the case of a lack of availability of water from Mwache. Baricho
Pipeline and the extension of the well fields and abstraction capacity from the
Sabaki River will be developed in Phase I. Only Rare Waterworks (including the
dam, water treatment facility and low-lift pumping station) will be established in
Phase III. Both the Rare and the Baricho pipelines will be constructed within a
single corridor. Mwache Dam and related infrastructures will be developed
during Phase 1, and will include the force main pipeline to pump water to the
proposed tank at +100 masl and water conveyance to Mombasa Island and to the
north Kisauni area. Development in this scenario will be in two main phases.
The sequence of development of this scenario has changed during the full-
feasibility stage. Originally, Rare Dam was in phase II and Mwache Dam in
phase III.

66
4.4.3.2 Phasing:
 Phase 1 (2020) – Full development of Baricho Wellfield, with additional

85,000 m3/d to achieve full daily abstraction of 175,000 m3/d.
 This will require two pipelines:
- The first will be parallel to the existing one (Baricho-Nguu-Tatu
Pipeline) to Mombasa.
- The second will be parallel to the 600 mm Baricho-Malindi Pipeline.
 The Baricho-Nguu-Tatu Pipeline will be designed with an adequate
diameter to meet the development of Rare Dam and supply 80,000 m3/d
to Kilifi and Mombasa.
 Phase 2 (2025) – Development of Mwache Dam, initially supplying
140,000 m3/d.
 Phase 3 (2035) – Increase water abstraction from Mwache Dam to a full
daily yield from the reservoir of 180,000 m3/d

67
Existing
Mzima 1 35,000.00 1,458.33 Phase II
Mzima 2 - Phase III
Fig. ‎4-9:
B3
Main land south Taita Main land north
Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h
Msambweni 20,000.00 Voi 16,357.60 681.57 Baricho 1 90,000.00 3,750.00
Tiwi 13,000.00 Mwatate 4,665.16 194.38 Baricho 2 85,000.00 3,541.67
Marere 12,000.00 Wundanyi 4,777.00 199.04 Rare Dam 80,000.00 3,333.33
0thers 12,000.00 Along the road (rural) 15,000.00 625.00 Rare Dam 20,000.00 833.33
Total resources 57,000.00 - Mariakani 10,150.00 422.92 Total resources 275,000.00 7,291.67
Total demad 50,949.76 2,122.91

Marere
Mesambweni -15,950
Mwache
Tiwi to Mariakani 31,905 15,950
to Mombasa 78,825
Mazeras tank Supply from Mwace to Mezares
to South 69,270 -15,950
Total allocated 186,000
Actual Supply 164,050 to mombasa
Main land south 57,707 Main land north
Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Mwache Tank Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h
Block Diagram – Scenario B3

Msambweni 4,809 200.3911 30,637 Malindi Z=20 32,245 1,343.54
Along the road 15,000 625 Mombasa (Island & West M.L) Klifi Z=20 13,240 551.66
likoni 53,134 2213.917 Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Matwapa Z=20 21,699 904.14
Kinango 4,489 187.0603 48,188.0 West mainland 88,344.0 3,681.00 Kisanui (Mom) Z=20 122,888 5,120.33
Mavueni -
Total demad 126,270 5261.255 Total demad 136,532.0 5,688.83 Along the road (rural) 10,000 416.67
Total demad 217,293 9,053.88
Main land south Balance -0.11 Main land north Balance - Main land north Balance 57,707
68

69

70
4.4.4 Scenario B5
4.4.4.1 Overview
Table 4-1 summarizes the total projected available water according to Scenario
B5 and the balance between abstraction and supply for each phase, i.e. 2020,
2025 and the horizon year (2035).
In this, the "surface water reservoir" scenario, only two major water resources
are scheduled for development in the region. During Phase 1, Mwache Dam will
be constructed to its full capacity. Due to the fact that water availability during
the initial years after dam completion is not yet clear, this scenario suggests
abstracting only 75% of the dam's full yield. However, all required infrastructure
downstream of the dam will be constructed to full capacity from Day 1.
During Phase 2, gradual development of the Rare Waterworks will commence. In

this scenario, supply of water to the bulk water system will be implemented
within two main phases. In the first phase 140,000 m3/d will be added to the
system. This water will be conveyed to Mombasa, where the main pipeline will
be approximately 1,200–1,250 mm in diameter. During Phase 2, only Module 1
will be implemented at the Rare Pumping Station and, as a result, the hydraulic
load on the pipe will be low.
By the horizon year of 2035, extension of the pumping station and the treatment
works downstream of the reservoir will be required in order to supply the full
capacity of this source. Additional water (40,000 m3/d) will be contributed by
Mwache Dam to the bulk water supply, giving a total yield of 180,000 m3/d.

71
4.4.4.2 Phasing
 Phase 1 (2020):
 Full development of Mwache Dam in terms of both dam construction and
water works facilities.
 The dam will supply 140,000 m3/d during this phase.
 Phase 2 (2025):
 Augmentation of 40,000 m3/d from Mwache Dam to a total supply of
180,000 m3/d.
 Development of Rare Dam to supply 80,000 m3/d to Mombasa.
 Phase 3 (2035):
 Augmentation of 80,000 m3/d from Rare Dam to a total supply of
180,000 m3/d
 Msambweni Aquifer (Gongoni forest) and Mkurumudzi Dam will be
 Total available water by 2035 year will be 530,000 m3/d.

72
Existing
Checked 7th Feb 2013 Mzima 1 35,000.00 1,458.33 Phase II
Mzima 2 - Phase III
B5
Main land south
Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h Taita Main land north
Tiwi 13,000.00 Voi 16,357.60 681.57 Baricho 1 90,000.00 3,750.00
Marere 12,000.00 Mwatate 4,665.16 194.38 Baricho 2 -
0thers 12,000.00 Wundanyi 4,777.00 199.04 Rare Dam (big Rare) 80,000.00 3,333.33
Total resources 57,000.00 - Along the road (rural) 15,000.00 625.00 Rare Dam (big Rare) 100,000.00 4,166.67

Mariakani 10,150.00 422.92 Total resources 270,000.00 11,250.00
Marere Total demad 50,949.76 2,122.91
-15,950
Mesambweni
Mwache
Tiwi to Mariakani 15,950 Supply from Mwace to Mezares
to Mombasa 83,825 15,950
Mezares tank -15,950
Main land south to South 69,270 Main land north
Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Total allocated 186,000 to mombasa Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h
Lunga Lunga/Vanga 11,709 487.8622 Actual Supply 169,045 52,707 Marafa Z=90 3,402 141.75
Fig. ‎4-12: Block Diagram – Scenario B5

Msambweni 4,809 200.3911 Malindi Z=20 32,245 1,343.54
Mwache Tank
Ukunda/Tiwi 28,453 1185.537 35,637 e tank Watamu 13,819 575.79
35,637
Along the road 15,000 625 Klifi Z=20 13,240 551.66
likoni 53,134 2213.917 Mombasa (Island & West M.L) Matwapa Z=20 21,699 904.14
Kinango 4,489 187.0603 Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Kisanui (Mom) Z=20 122,888 5,120.33
Kwale 8,676 361.4874 69,270 48,188.0 West mainland 88,344.0 3,681.00
Mombasa (Island) 48,188.0 2,007.83 Mavueni -
Total demad 126,270 5261.255 Along the road (rural) 10,000.00 416.67
Total demad 136,532.0 5,688.83 Total demad 217,293.07 9,053.88
Main land south Balance -0.11 Main land north Balance - Main land north Balance 52,707
73

74
4.4.5 Scenario C2
4.4.5.1 Overview
Table 4-1 presents the total projected available water as set out in Scenario C2
and the balance between abstraction and supply for each phase, i.e., 2020, 2025
and the horizon year (2035). Green highlights represent water resources to be
developed during the various phases.
This scenario generally corresponds to Scenario B1 with regard to development

activities to be conducted during Phases 1 and 2. In Phase 3, it is proposed to
develop a desalination plant as a source of water that is not dependent on
precipitation.
Fig. ‎4-14: Development of Water Resources vs. Demand – Scenario C2
4.4.5.2 Phasing:

 Phase 1 (2020) – Development of Mwache Dam.

75
 During Phase I, the dam will supply 140,000 m3/d (see also Scenario B1).
 Phase 2 (2025) – Augmentation of 40,000 m3/d from Mwache Dam to a total
supply of 180,000 m3/d, and full development of Baricho Wellfield to
85,000 m3/d with a new pipeline to Mombasa and Malindi.
 Implementation period for Baricho wellfield and pipelines: 2023 – 2025.
 Phase 3 (2035) – Supply of an additional 60,000 m3/d from a coastal
desalination plant in the vicinity of Mombasa in order to cope with the
projected increase in urban water demand.
 Implementation period for Desalination Plant I: 2031 – 2033.
 Implementation period for Desalination Plant II: 2033 – 2035.

76
Existing
Mzima 1 35,000.00 1,458.33 Phase II
Mzima 2 - Phase III
C2
Main land south
Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h Taita Main land north
Tiwi 13,000.00 Voi 16,357.60 681.57 Baricho 1 90,000.00 3,750.00
Marere 12,000.00 Mwatate 4,665.16 194.38 Baricho 2 85,000.00 3,541.67
0thers 12,000.00 Wundanyi 4,777.00 199.04 Rare Dam -
Total resources 57,000.00 - Along the road (rural) 15,000.00 625.00 Total resources 175,000.00 7,291.67
Mariakani 10,150.00 422.92
Marere Total demad 50,949.76 2,122.91
-15,950
Mesambweni Mwache
to Mariakani 15,950
Tiwi to Mombasa 78,825 15,950
Mazeras tank

to South 69,270
Total allocated 186,000
Actual Supply 164,045
Main land south Main land north
Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Mwache Tank Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h
Msambweni 4,809 200.3911 Malindi Z=20 32,245 1,343.54
Along the road 15,000 625 78,825 Mombasa (Island & West M.L) Klifi Z=20 13,240 551.66
likoni 53,134 2213.917 Demand summary m^3/d m^3/h Matwapa Z=20 21,699 904.14
Kinango 4,489 187.0603 West mainland 88,344.0 3,681.00 Kisanui (Mom) Z=20 122,888 5,120.33
Fig. ‎4-15: Block Diagram – Scenario C2

Mavueni -
Total demad 126,270 5261.255 Total demad 136,532.0 5,688.83 Along the road (rural) 10,000 416.67
Total demad 217,293 9,053.88
Main land south Balance -0.11 Main land north Balance 0 Main land north Balance 0
From desalination toward Kisauni

From desalination toward Island 57707 42293
supply to head +70
Desalination
Resources Summary m^3/d m^3/h
Desalination plant - Mom 100,000 4167
77
Fig. ‎4-16: Layout Map of Sequential Development – Scenario C2

78
4.5 Water Supply to Lamu and Tana Counties
4.5.1 General
Lamu and Tana counties, the two northern counties in the Coast Province, are
remote from the main urban centres of the coast and from the bulk water supply.
Only a few small aquifers exist within these two counties, and they cannot sustain
the growing demand.
The Tana River is the longest river in Kenya and sustains a minimum flow of
8 m3/s. As of 2012, only small water supply and irrigation schemes use this
mighty source downstream of Garissa. The flow regime in this river suffers from
high fluctuations, while severe floods occur frequently every few years. It
therefore poses an obstacle for simple river intakes.
According to Vision 2030 and WRMA management plans, a few medium to large
size reservoirs are to be built upstream of Garissa [i.e., High Grand Falls (HGF)].
These reservoirs are expected to moderate the floods and siltation in the
downstream areas.
4.5.2 Supply Alternatives
The major development in this area is expected around the new Lamu Port and
the LAPPSET Corridor.
In Tana County, most of the population and all of the towns are located along the
banks of the Tana River.
The potential sources and supply options identified for Tana and Lamu counties
are as follows:
 Barrage near the settlement of Nanighi, and gravitational supply with a

180 km pipeline to Lamu.
 Barrage near the Garsen Bridge, and pumping to Lamu via an 80 km pipeline.
 Additional small/local intakes along the Tana River, for the towns of Tana
County.
 Expanding the small aquifers near Lamu.
 Desalination plants.

79
4.5.3 Discussion
 Nanighi Barrage – Although it involves a very long pipeline, this option will
consume very little energy, as most of the topography from Nanighi to Lamu
is plain.
 Garsen Bridge Barrage – While this location is closer to Lamu than Nanighi
(75 km vs. 180 km), a pumping head of about 20 bars (200 m) will be needed
in order to supply water to Lamu.
 Garsen Bridge Barrage (two phases) – implementing the Garsen option in

two phases, each consisting of 75km / 40" pipeline. This option is not
recommended due to the requirement of the construction of two parallel pipes
within a very short period. The complexity of this venture may create a
situation which initial delays may cause the overlapping in the construction
period of both pipes.
 Small intakes – This option appears to be feasible, especially after the flow
in the Tana River is moderated.
 Expanding small aquifers around Lamu – This option appears to be

feasible only for the immediate term. The capacity of expansion of the Hindi,
Mpeketoni and Shella aquifers is limited, and can sustain only the immediate
phase of building the new Lamu Port.
 Seasonal river damming – This option appears to be less feasible than the
others, as most of the soil in this location is sandy and seepage will be high.
 Desalination plant – As Lamu Port is expected to grow rapidly, the

desalination option appears to be feasible. The desalination option can be
developed in stages:
 Initially a primary module will be introduced to meet the current demand
for constructing the new port.
 Additional modules will be built with development of the area.
 Deep groundwater – Preliminary analysis indicates the possible existence of

groundwater in the Neogene layers in the area of Lamu and Tana counties.
Further study is recommended in order to verify the potential of this source.
 Inter basin transfers – conveying water from the Tana River towards
Malindi, Kilifi & Mombasa is feasible, but will require long transmission mains and
high pumping costs. Therefore, Inter basin transfer of water from Tana and Lamu
area are recommended beyond the horizon of the master plan, after full

80
development of closer sources.
Fig. ‎4-17: Development of water resources vs. demand – Lamu area
4.6 Water Supply to Taveta Area
4.6.1 Overview
The Water Supply Master Plan for the Coast Province includes six counties.
Among them is Taita Taveta County, comprising four townships – Voi, Taveta,
Mwatate and Wundanyi. Currently, only the town of Voi is connected to the bulk
water supply system via the connection from the Mzima Pipeline. Taveta
Township is supplied from the Njoro Kubwa Springs, which are located near the
township, at an elevation of +730 masl. Both Mwatate (+806 masl) and
Wundanyi (+1,450 masl) are disconnected from the bulk water supply today. A
summary of water production was presented in the Water Demand and Supply
Assessment Report, and is summarized in Table 4-2.
Table ‎4-2: TAVEVO Water Supply (2008–2010)
Production Daily
Year volumes Production
(m3) (m3 /d)
July 2008 to June 2009 2,420,755 6,632

81
July 2009 to June 2010 3,026,418 8,292
July 2010 to June 2011 2,370,592 6,495
According to the demand projection, the entire water demand for Taita Taveta
County was presented in the Water Demand and Supply Assessment Report, and
is summarized in Table 4-3.
Table ‎4-3: Water Demand Projection for Taita Taveta County
Total Demand
2015 2020 2025 2035
(m3/d)
Taveta 3,573 4,265 5,121 7,228
Mwatate 2,350 2,758 3,332 4,665
Wundanyi 2,406 2,823 3,411 4,777
Voi/Maungu 8,286 9,708 11,630 16,358
Total – Taita Taveta County 16,615 19,554 23,493 33,028
Future / Current Demand (%) 233% 274% 329% 463%
It is clear that the demand for water in the region will increase sharply, and that
current water supply is far lower than the current water demand.
Taita Taveta County is characterized by long distances between the small villages
and townships in the region. Of the 20 cities in the scope of the Water Supply
Master Plan, only four townships fall within Taita Taveta County. A separate
analysis was carried out to seek the best possible solution for water supply to that
area, without connecting to the water bulk supply system. It is important to note
that the area has a huge water resource, the Njoro Kubwa Springs, which emerge
from the Kilimanjaro Aquifer. The water flows down the stream and reaches
Challa Lake. Only sparse data on the spring yield are available. It is known that
minimal flows in the spring can drop down to 4.5 m3/s (>300,000 m3/d) where
overall abstraction of water in the last year was 3,000 m3/d, to meet the actual
water demand of Taveta township and some villages around the township.
4.6.2 Water Supply Alternatives
For the case of Taveta Taita County, four alternatives were examined:
 Alternative 1 – Supply Taveta, Mwatate and Wundanyi from the Njoro

Kubwa Springs, and leave Voi connected to the Mzima Pipeline.

82
 Alternative 2 – Supply Mwatate and Wundanyi from the Mzima Pipeline by

abstracting water through pumping from Voi, leaving Taveta to being
supplied from the Njoro Kubwa Springs.
 Alternative 3 – Supply Taveta, Mwatate, Wundanyi and Voi from the Njoro
Kubwa Springs, taking no water from Mzima Pipeline.
 Alternative 4 – Maintain current situation – supply Voi from the Mzima
Pipeline, supply Taveta from the Njoro Kubwa Springs and rely on local
springs and boreholes for water supply to Mwatate and Wundanyi.
Additional details for each of the proposed alternatives are as follows:
 Abstraction from the Njoro Kubwa Springs will be increased by pumping

393 m3/h for the Taveta, Mwatate and Wundanyi supply.
 A 75 km pipeline will be laid along the main road up to Mwatate in order
to convey the water for use. For the transmission of the water it will be
required to lay a 400 mm pipeline. Due to the elevation difference and
the length of the pipe, a total dynamic head (TDH) of 298 m (30 bars)
will be needed.
 Water supply to Wundanyi will be from a second stage pump from the
Mwatate location to an elevation of +1,430 masl. It is suggested that this
supply "arm" be postponed to the last stage of development – see
economic calculation later in this section.
 Abstraction from the Mzima Pipeline and pumping of the water to Mwatate
and Wundanyi.
 The pumping rate will be the same (393 m3/h) while the Taveta location
will be supplied from the Njoro Kubwa Springs. The TDH to lift the
water to Mwatate will be 335 m as the line to Mwatate is only 30 km. but
the elevation difference is 260 m.
 Supply of all the Taveta county water demand from the Njoro Kubwa
Springs, i.e. no water will be abstracted from the Mzima Pipeline to the
Taveta customers.
 In that case, the system will comprise a 500 mm pipeline from the spring
in Taveta to Mwatate. This pipeline will deliver 1,075 m3/h, equal to the
daily demand of the three townships. The water lift from the spring will
be 298 m to Mwatate. Supply to Voi will be via a force main gravity
pipeline, 600 mm in diameter and 30 km in length.
 Water will be delivered from Mwatate at +850 masl to Voi at +600 masl.
The flow gradient will be 260 m/30 km – 8.66 m/km on average.
 The scheme of supply will be remain as at present:
 Abstraction of water to Voi will be from the Mzima Pipeline (and only to
Voi).
 Taveta will utilize water from the local intake near the Njoro Kubwa
Springs, and both Mwatate and Wundanyi will be left disconnected from
the bulk water supply system, and will rely on small boreholes, local
springs at Wundanyi Mountain, etc.

83
 CWSB will invest in efforts to increase the production of these small

schemes to improve reliability.
Table 4-4 summarizes the comparison of alternatives for supply for Taveta
County.
Table ‎4-4: Development Scenarios for Taita Taveta County
Sub Scenario 1: Supply water from the Njoro Kubwa Springs to Mwatate & Wundanyi only
Sub Scenario 2: Supply water from Mzima Pipeline to Mwatate & Wundanyi only
Sub Scenario 3: Supply water from the Njoro Kubwa Springs to Mwatate +Wundanyi + Voi
Total water demand Units Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Total water demand, 2035 m3/d 9,442 9,442 25,800
Total water demand, 2035 m3/h 393 393 1,075
Elevations
Taveta m 750 750 750
Mwatate m 860 860 860
Wundanyi m 1,450 1,450 1,450
Voi/Maungu m 600 600 600
Distances
Taveta-Mwatate km 75 75 75
Voi-Mwatate km 30 30 30
Taveta-Voi km
Elevation difference
Taveta-Mwatate m 110 110 110
Voi-Mwatate m 260 260 260
Taveta-Voi
Head Loss Taveta-Mwatate m 187.5 187.5 187.5
Head Loss Voi-Mwatate m 75 75
Total dynamic head (TDH)
Voi-Mwatate m 335 335
Mwatate-Voi m gravity
Diameter
Taveta-Mwatate mm 400 400 1,000
Voi-Mwatate mm 400 400 600
Capital cost
Pipe per km US$/km 250,000 250,000 450,000
Pump per km US$/km 250,000 250,000 350,000
Pumps (US$ per Q/H) 100 100 70
Total cost
Pipes US$ x 106 18,750,000 7,500,000 41,250,000
Pumps US$ x 106 11,704,443 13,179,793 22,386,734
Energy
Total operating US$/y 1,281,636 1,443,187 3,501,925
Annual costs
NPV US$
Rate % 10% 10%
Lifespan of pipes years 50 50
Lifespan of pumps years 15 15
Total annual costs

84
Taveta-Mwatate Capital US$/y 3,250,773 6,761,029

Voi-Mwatate Capital US$/y 2,287,494
Taveta-Mwatate Energy US$/y 1,281,636 3,501,925
Voi-Mwatate Energy US$/y 1,443,18
Total annual costs US$/y 4,532,410 3,730,681 10,262,954
Total annual volume m3/y 3,446,417 3,446,417 9,416,941
Specific cost (per m3) US$/m3 1.32 1.08 1.09
Note:
 Calculations do not include the additional cost needed to pump the water to
Wundanyi town.
 It should be noted that additional pumping of 500 m (from +860 masl at
Mwatate to +1,350 masl at Wundanyi) is essential in order to supply water.
4.6.3 Discussion
The remote location of the Taita Taveta townships, the distance between the
settlements and the elevation of the region cause the water supply schemes to be
relatively complex compared to other water supply schemes in the Coast
Province.
Scenario 1 shows the highest water production cost as it demands the

development of large infrastructures and high operating cost allocated relative to
the small annual volume of water. In Scenario 2, since the length of the
Voi-Mwatate Pipeline is only 30 km, the total annual cost per m3 is less than
Scenario 1. Scenario 3 shows the production cost is US$ 1.09/m3, similar to
Scenario 2. The advantage of Scenario 2 is mainly in the lower usage of the bulk
water supply system, as supplying water to Voi from the Njoro Kubwa Springs
will ease the stress of water demand from the Mzima Pipeline, enabling
Mombasa to receive more water from the Mzima Pipeline compared to the
current situation. Considering the future water demand at Voi town (16,500 m3/d)
some 45% of all water from the Mzima Pipeline will be needed. Yet, it is
important to note that Voi has more than one option of supplying water, whereas
Mwatate, Taveta and Wundanyi are much more limited with regard to supply
options.
Thus, two strategies for connection between Taita Taveta townships and the bulk
water supply are recommended, as follows:
 Only in the case of Scenario B1, where Mzima 2 Pipeline will be

implemented, it is suggested to connect Mwatate and Wundanyi to the bulk
water supply system by constructing a pipeline and pump to deliver water
from Voi Junction to Mwatate. The scheme will be able to supply 9,432 m3/d,
the total daily flow to meet the demand of Mwatate and Wundanyi. Taveta
town will be supplied from the local intake in the Njoro Kubwa Springs.

85
 In all other cases where additional new resources to the bulk water supply
will not include the Mzima 2 Pipeline, only Voi town will be supplied from
the current Mzima Pipeline, and water supply to Mwatate, and Wundanyi will
remain as at present, based on local and private schemes. It is recommended
to enhance local solutions for the area of Wundanyi and Taita. Taveta town
will be supplied from the local intake in the Njoro Kubwa Springs.
4.7 Water Supply to Remote Rural Areas
4.7.1 General
The rural areas within the Coast Province area of jurisdiction cover more than
95% of the land area, but host less than 20% of the region's population. Due to
the dispersed nature of the rural population, sustainable water supply to the
remote areas via the bulk water supply system is a complex task. Thus, the
considered appropriate ways to supply water to the rural sector are as discussed in
sections 4.7.2 to 4.7.5.
4.7.2 Rainfall Roof Harvesting
4.7.2.1 Overview
Rainwater harvesting has not been promoted in a systematic manner in urban

areas in the Coast Region, although it is practiced and is found to be practical in
rural communities. Given the high variability of rainfall, this can be a useful
option in the rural sector for schools, remote communities, informal settlements
and individual households. Galvanized corrugated iron sheets, corrugated plastic
and tiles all make good roof catchment surfaces. Tanks are built from a wide
range of materials including metal, wood, plastic, fibreglass, bricks, interlocking
blocks, compressed-soil or rubble-stone blocks, ferrocement and concrete.
This form of water supply is useful in areas with rainfall between 500 mm and
1,000 mm, and is especially favourable in areas with two separate rainy seasons.
This method can constitute a cheap and efficient solution for rural settlements,
and can be promoted by CWSB and various NGOs active in the region.
Above-ground tanks with capacities ranging from 1 m3 to more than 40 m3 for
homes, and 40 m3 to more than 100 m3 for institutions, can be constructed.
4.7.2.2 Advantages
The water can be of good quality in terms of colour, taste and bacteriological
quality if adequate precautions can be taken, with the roof being made of suitable
materials.

86
4.7.2.3 Disadvantages
The cost of tanks is often beyond the reach of many poor households. The cost of
this technology varies considerably depending on location, type of materials used
and degree of implementation. Table 4-5 presents costs associated with the
implementation of roof rainwater harvesting systems.
Table ‎4-5: Construction Cost of Roof Rainwater Harvesting
Tank Size (including additional materials) Cost (Ksh)

1 m3 of plastic 13,300
Source: Prices have been adopted and adjusted to the present from the
Manual Water from the Roofs by Erik Nissen-Petersen for Danish
International Development Assistance (Danida), 2007

87
4.7.3 Surface Catchment Systems
4.7.3.1 Overview
Harvesting of rainwater can be performed from rock outcrops/slopes, concrete

surfaces, plastic sheets or treated ground surfaces. It consists of a catchment area,
retention and conveyance structures, and storage tank/reservoir. This type of
system is useful in regions with rainfall between 200 and 750 mm. The water is
mainly used for domestic and livestock consumption.
4.7.3.2 Advantages
Advantages of rock surface catchment system:
 Economical and reliable sources for water in water scarce areas.

 Can be built and used by self-help groups.
 Can be constructed during drought periods when the demand for water is
highest and work in the fields is lowest.
 Maintenance involves only cleaning of the catchment and the reservoir.
 Even small rain showers falling on the rock catchment area produce large
volumes of runoff that can be drawn off from the reservoir.
 Rock catchment dams do not occupy farmland but only rocks that are in no
man's land.
Disadvantages of rock surface catchment system are:
 The quality of the water might be low if the catchment and the reservoir are
not cleaned.
 It provides a breeding ground for disease-causing organisms.
 It has high evaporation rates.
4.7.4 Water Pan for Runoff Water Harvesting
4.7.4.1 Characteristics
A pan, also called a pond, is an excavated earth reservoir that is easy to construct
in relatively flat terrain and harvest runoff for livestock utilization and
small-scale irrigation. Pans are preferably located in topographically low areas
where runoff from infrastructures such as roads can easily be harvested, and
where impervious soils prevail to reduce seepage losses.

88
The capacity is variable and depends on site conditions and investment

capabilities. While common pans are 1,500–5,000 m3, the capacity can be
increased with time to hold more water.
Source: Cash-Food for Assets by GoK and WFP
Fig. ‎4-18: Circular pan (left) and rectangular pan (right)
4.7.4.2 Advantages
Water pans are highly functional in arid and semi-arid region (rainfall between
200 mm and 750 mm) – even in semi-desert (<200 mm) areas, depending on
water availability (scarcity) and available catchment area (suitable landscape).
 Low and erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts over several years of below
average rainfall may lead to reservoirs failing to fill.
 High evaporation rates leading to significant losses from any water stored in
open reservoirs or ponds.
 Siltation due to large amounts of sediment washed into reservoirs during
severe storms, especially at the end of the dry season, which also make the
water turbid. Siltation can be avoided by trapping inflowing silt in silt traps
and utilizing it for fertilizing garden plots.
 Contamination of water in open reservoirs can be caused by livestock
entering reservoirs, resulting in poor water quality. Livestock should
therefore be watered downstream of dam reservoirs, where water can be
drawn from a hand-dug well sunk in an area with seepage from the dam
reservoir. Clean water for domestic use can also be drawn from such a well.
 The risk exists of small children and livestock falling into ponds or
reservoirs. Small water reservoirs should therefore always be fenced.

89
4.7.5 Sand Dam
4.7.5.1 Characteristics
A sand dam is a reinforced concrete wall built across a seasonal river to hold
groundwater in sand. It is initially built one metre high and up to 90 m across.
During heavy and erratic seasonal rains, water and silt flow over the dam while
the heavier sand settles to the bottom. Over one to three seasons of rain, the dam
fills up with sand, which acts as a storage tank for water. In good quality sand,
the sand dam volume is approximately 35% water (Beimers, et al., 2001)
4.7.5.2 Advantages
 It provides a year-round source of water near community-member homes so

they do not have to spend hours walking and queuing to fetch water.
 Saline water becomes less salty over time as less evaporation occurs: as more
water comes into the sand dam, the concentration of salt lessens.
 The water is cleaner, having been filtered through the sand.
 The water is protected from parasites and people are less likely to become ill.
 Increased water capacity allows communities to set up tree nurseries in semi-
arid areas where tree planting is otherwise very difficult.
Each sand dam has the potential to provide a clean supply of water for up to
1,200 people, animals, tree nurseries and vegetable gardens. The increased water
availability within a 10 km radius means that a sand dam may indirectly benefit
up to thousands of people, as the use of the stored water is never restricted to the
people who built the sand dam. Sand dams change the lives of people by
providing water for their needs:
According to calculations performed in 2010 by Utooni Development

Organization, Kola, Kenya, the cost of building a sand dam by adding (a) the
average cost of the dam including all staff and materials and (b) the community
self-help group contribution is as detailed in Table 4-6, the volume of water in an
average dam being 100,000 m3.
Table ‎4-6: Cost of Building a Sand Dam for Average Volume of 100,000 m3
Cost in 2010 Cost in 2010 Cost in 2012

Cost Items
(Ksh) (US$) (US$)
Dam 575,184 7,669 8,691
Self-help contribution 640,000 8,533 9,670
Total 1,215,184 16,202 18,361
Note: To get cost in 2012, an escalation factor of 85/75 = 1.13 was used, based on US$ 1= Ksh 75 in
2010, and US$ 1= Ksh 85 in 2012.

90
On average, the cost to the community is about US$ 0.20–0.30/m3 for each cubic
metre of water from a sand dam (Nissen-Peterssen, 2000).
Source: Two waterfalls do not hear each other, sand-storage dams, science and
sustainability development in Kenya by Maurits Ertsen and Rolf Hut
Fig. ‎4-19: Typical Sand-Storage Dam with Sand Reservoir Upstream

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5. Financial and Economic Analysis

5.1 Introduction
The main objective of the financial and economic analysis is to provide CWSB
and other policymakers and stakeholders with all necessary information needed
for informed decision-making regarding the potential water development
scenarios in the region, as well as other promising programs and projects.
Initial economic analysis of the seven water supply scenarios – four scenarios for
the bulk water supply and three scenarios for the Lamu area – was presented in
the Pre-Feasibility Study Report. At this point, each of the scenarios is analyzed
with regard to more stringent financial and economic indicators
The final outcome of this chapter is to present the financial and economic
indicators of each scenario, and identify the preferred ones. The outcomes will
also serve to upgrade the multi-criteria analysis.
5.2 Methodology
The financial and economic analysis of the CWSB-WSMP scenarios is based on

a comparison between the net benefit flows from water delivery and income to
the cost of developing and operating the systems that will supply the water.
The initial financial evaluation was presented during the pre-feasibility phase,
and included the drafting of detailed cash flows for each alternative. These
included discounted investments, O&M costs and energy costs.
Moreover, additional analysis included computations of basic indicators per

supplied m3 of water – total investment per m3, energy and O&M costs per m3
and the total water cost per m3 delivered to the utility firm.
These indicators enabled the Consultant to rank each of the scenarios according
to multi-criteria ranking, and identify the scenarios that are viable for further
examination. At this stage, the full feasibility study, discounted cash flow
techniques have been applied to the recommended scenarios to further refine the
analysis and identify the most promising scenarios.
The distinction made between the financial and economic analysis in the master
plan computations are based on the traditional differences between the two
economic indicators as well as the project-specific variables identified by the
consultant during preparations of the cost estimates, cash flows and economic
evaluations.

92
The financial analysis compares the revenues and expenses (investment,

maintenance and operation costs, energy) of the concerned agent (in this case
CWSB) in each scenario alternative and then computing the corresponding
financial returns and indicators.
The economic analysis aims at identifying and comparing economic and social
benefits accruing to the national, regional and community economies as a whole.
Several key factors are instrumental in explaining the distinctive and significant
differences between financial and economic analysis results in the Master Plan
computations.
First and foremost are the subsidized terms and conditions of the long term loans
for investments. These are the donor funds supporting the CWSB and the other
investment agencies (WRMA, CDA etc).
The subsidized terms of these attractive loans consist of a 10 year grace period,
1% interest per annum and an additional 30 years maturity with 3% per annum.
In the financial cash flow analysis, only the annual share of invested funds and
the corresponding (very low) interest payments is included as expenses in the
cash flow calculations. The major share of the capital investments is deferred to
latter years. Concurrently, the cash flow is discounted at 12 percent per annum.
These factors produce an attractive investment environment with high IRRs and
NPVs. Due to the discounting effects, postponed expenses (especially 20 years
into the future), entail low present outlays.
These considerations also explain the relatively substantial influence of the O&M
components (operations, maintenance, energy) on the ranking of the different
scenarios. The low capital expenditures in the present (due to the soft loans and
high annual discounts) are dwarfed by the annual O&M costs.
In contrast, in the economic analysis computations, the total capital investments

are recorded in the same year as implemented. Hence annual expenses are much
higher and their relative significance in the total annual expenditure ratio is
increased.
This clarifies the fact that a comparison between alternative scenarios will show
that very often the relationship between the financial and economic scores have a
nonlinear relationship. Meaning one scenario may be the least-cost one from the
economic point of view (for example B5 with 463.9 $ million investment costs
and the lowest also on water prices) whereas in the financial analysis scenario
B1.1 has the lowest water costs but much higher capital investments.
The indicators analyzed at this stage include:
 Net present value (NPV).

 Internal rate of return (IRR).
 Economic net present value (ENPV).
 Economic internal rate of return (EIRR).
 Sensitivity and risk analysis.

93
Financial and economic evaluation of the scenarios is divided into two distinct
phases.
Analysis indicators: NPV and IRR

In economic and financial analysis there are a number of different approaches
that can be used to evaluate any given project. The Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
and the Net Present Value (NPV) are among the most widely accepted, accurate
and relevant.
The net present value approach is considered the most accurate valuation
approach to capital budgeting issues. Discounting the cash flows by the weighted
average cost of capital allows economists and decision makers to determine
whether a project will be profitable or not and, more importantly, it will reveal
exactly how profitable a project will be in comparison to alternatives. Generally,
all projects which have a positive net present value should be accepted while
those that are negative should be rejected. When funds are limited the
projects/alternatives with the highest NPV should be selected. The main
advantage of the NPV method is that it provides a direct measure/amount of the
contribution or income of the project to the investor/initiator.
The discount rate selected in the financial analysis of the projects in the Master
Plan is 12% (As stipulated by the World Bank for WB funded ventures). This
means that any alternative with a positive NPV generates a profit above and
beyond the 12% discount rate.
The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the rate of growth a project is expected to
generate. It is the interest rate (or discount rate) that makes the net present value
of all cash flows of the project equal to zero. Generally, the higher a project’s
IRR the more desirable it is to the investors or decision makers.
Assuming all other factors are equal among various projects, the IRR can be used
to rank prospective projects and to select the most feasible.
The main advantage of the IRR method is that it clearly displays the return (in
percentage) on the original investment. This can be then compared to alternate
investment opportunities.
Although, as a rule, projects with higher NPVs and IRRs should be selected for
implementation and ones with negative indicators rejected, at times more detailed
analysis is required.
For example, both NPV and IRR of the immediate emergency investment are
negative; this project is not a stand-alone project and cannot be evaluated as such.
Rather, it is an initial (and emergency) investment in the overall Baricho project
which exhibits robust and positive cash flows and rates of return at plan horizon.
5.3 General Assumptions for the Evaluation
 Costs are expressed at September 2012 costs, and are constant.

 Project lifespan is set at 50 years.
 Investments relate only to the additional infrastructure needed to be
developed, regardless of any existing facilities.

94
 An annual discount factor of 10% has been tentatively set for the analysis.
 Investments relate to development from the water source and up to the final
connection point at the water utility company.
 Average capital costs and average O&M and energy costs are calculated for
each scenario's additional costs only (without existing facilities), and are
determined as a constant rate set at 1% per annum of the total accumulated
investments.
 O&M expenditures reflect an annual investment of 0.5% of accumulated
investments for rehabilitation purposes.
 In the event of an incompatibility between the total water capacity and the
total water demand (in certain years), the lower between the two is set as a
constraint in the calculations.
 Government policies regarding water prices will remain unchanged. Policy
shifts may cause corresponding changes in the analysis results.
 Different water prices have been set for the Mombasa area and the Lamu
area, reflecting the differing costs of water production and supply between
the two areas.
 Investments for each phase are divided equally by the anticipated number of
years of the component implementation (relevant for economic analysis).
 Total investments do not include and do not cover the investments that will be
required for water distribution for the various areas of the WSPs.
 Total investments do not include and do not cover the investments that will be
required for water distribution for the various areas of the WSPs.
 A standard conversion factor (SCF) of 0.9 was determined in order to reflect
additional (or decreased) benefits (or costs) to the economy (relevant for
economic analysis).
 Funding costs are computed according to the terms of loans of the water
utilities – 10-year grace period with annual interest rate of 1%, and additional
30 years of loans' refund with an annual interest rate of 3% (relevant for
financial analysis).
5.4 Cost Estimates Comment [J1]: Comment was: Why use

projects outside Kenya? Wouldn’t it be
prudent to use local similar projects?
Unit costs for the engineers cost estimates are presented in Annex 4, the The response to the comment was:
Cost estimates based mostly on other
following documents have been used to determine reasonable unit prices: projects in Kenya generally and coast
province in particular. Projects from
 Various WaSSIP reports (EGISBCEOM/MIPB, IGIP/TCE, BRL/GIBB, H.P. neighbor countries (e.g. Tanzania and
Uganda) are used for verifications.
GAUFF)
 Detailed Design and Tender Documents for Musoma Bukoba Water Supply,
Engineers Costs Estimate, Poyry Environment December 2010 (Tanzania)
 MAMADO (Maji na Maendeleo Dodoma), NGO, Information from Susan
Workshop, Mtwara, September 2010 (Tanzania)
 Costs Optimisation of UDDT’s in Kenya, Steffen Blume, 2009 (Kenya)
 Mwanza Sewerage Works Project Phase 2, Implementation of Works, 2010
(Tanzania)

95
 Update of the 2003 Feasibility Study – Kampala Water Supply, Poyry

Environment GmbH, June 2010 (Uganda)
Table 5-1 presents preliminary cost estimates for the development of each source.
It should be emphasized that these estimates are general; diameters, powers and
volumes will be more accurate in the preliminary design stage
Table ‎5-1: Cost Estimates for the Various Systems Comment [J2]: Comment was: In table
5-1, the quantities here differ from those in
chapter 4, Mwache is now 200,000m3/day
Capital instead of 180,000m3/day. The same applies
No. Source/Project Cost to Rare Dam. Any explanation for this?
Again how can 180,000m3/day be supplied
(US$) as per scenario B1 yet the pumping capacity
1 Baricho Immediate Expansion (22,000 m3/day, 2 years impl.) is only 6000m3/hr (144,000m3/day)
Recheck this table to ensure justifiable
Boreholes (3 BH, 10,000m3/d each) 3,200,000 costs, pressure ratings etc.
Pumping Units to Kakuyuni,800 m3/hr,100m 1,300,000 What does rehab of Mkurumudzi Dam
entail?
Pumping Units to Nguu Tatu,800 m3/hr,240m 2,250,000
New Kakuyuni Tank 2,500m3 800,000 The response was: Quantities were
revised.
New Kilifi Tank 5,000m3 1,000,000 Mkurumudzi dam and Msambweni
Gravity Main Kakuyuni-kilifi, 20"/50km, PN10 16,889,167 Aquifer (Gongoni) are being utilized by
Gravity Main Malindi-Gongoni, 12"/20km, PN10 4,556,500 Base Titanium for limited time.
It is suggested that CWSB will ensure
Parallel Force Main Lower Ribe - Nguu Tatu ,32"/12km,PN16 7,830,225 secure this source for the future of the
1.1 Total 37,825,892 Coast province in the end of the mining
works.
2 Mwache Dam (186,000 m3/day, 4 years implementation) CWSB will have invest in rehabilitation of
this sources.
Dam, 75 m high, Rockfill type 109,764,706
Treatment works 35,000,000
Comment [J3]: Comment was: Cost for
Weir 23,529,412 treatment works for both Mwache & Rare
for 200,000m3/d is different at 35mUSD
Pumping Station, 3000 m3/hr, 40m 9,333,331 and 22.5 mUSD, why? Check rows 4 and
Transmission Mains, 32"/13km, PN10 8,482,744 21 of the table.
-Cost of 3 boreholes for Baricho is different
2.1 Sub-Total Changamwe Scheme 17,816,075 for item 4& 5 at 350,000USD and 4.8
mUSD, why? Check also for 5 boreholes.
Pumping station, 4,000 m3/h, 140 m 8,666,665 The response is: Cost estimates were
Transmission Mains, 40"/4km, PN25 5,512,000 revised after reviewing recent projects of
New Tank-Nguu Tatu 40"/17km, PN10 18,740,800 CWSB.
2.2 Sub-Total Transmission to New Reservoir 32,919,465

Comment [J4]: Comment was: -Split
Pumping Station to Kaya Bombo, 2,500 m3/hr, 40m 4,333,332 the Baricho scheme into stand-alone
contracts, one to be financed by the
Transmission Mains Mwache - Kaya Bombo 28"/22km, PN10 11,711,700 available funds from WaSSIP-AF and the
Transmission Mains Kaya Bombo - Likoni 20"/11km, PN10 3,715,617 other contract by other funds to be sought.
Transmission Mains Kaya Bombo - Tiwi, 20"/11km, PN10 3,715,617 -Consider adding Kakuyuni water tank and
also Kilifi town water tank.
Transmission Mains Tiwi - Ukunda 16"/6km, PN10 1,667,250 Response is: Stand-alone analyses are
Transmission Mains Ukunda - Msambweni 12"/22km, PN10 5,012,150 presented, the immediate expansion
includes the new reservoirs.
Transmission Mains Msambweni - L. Lunga 12"/46km, PN10 10,479,950
2.3 Sub-Total Transmission to South Coast 40,635,616
2.4 Total Mwache Dam Project (Without Changamwe) 241,849,198
3 Rare Dam (180,000 m3/day, 3 years implementation)
Dam, 60m High, Rockfill type 80,000,000

96
Capital
No. Source/Project Cost
(US$)
Pumping Station, 7500m3/hr, 150m 8,333,331
Transmission Mains to Nguu Tatu, 48"/70Km, PN16 (Partly PN25) 102,636,625
3.1 Total 213,469,956
4 Rare Dam (100,000 m3/day, 3 years implementation)

Dam, 50m High, Rockfill type 60,000,000
Pumping Station,3500m3/hr, 150m 2,333,333
Transmission Mains to Nguu Tatu, 32"/70Km, PN16 (Partly PN25) 45,676,313
4.1 Total 128,009,645
5 Mzima II (100,000 m3/day, 4 years implementation)

Intake 450,000
Tunnel,3.2mØ-1.5mØ,3km 11,250,000
Pipeline Mzima - Voi,48"/98.6km,PN16 144,571,018
Pipeline Voi - Mazeras, 40"/121.4km, PN 16 133,831,360
Pipeline Voi - Taita Hills,16"/30km, PN40 2,946,450
Pumping Station to Taita Hills, 400m3/hr, 300m 379,535
5.1 Total 293,428,362
6 Baricho II Malindi Expansion (22,000 m3/day, 2 year impl.)
Boreholes (2 BH, 10,500m3/d each) 3,200,000
Pumping Units,1300 m3/hr,100m 2,250,000
Transmission Mains Baricho Kakuyuni,28"/27km,PN16 14,373,450
Transmission Mains Kakuyuni Marafa,28"/27km, PN12.5 14,373,450
6.1 Total 19,823,450
7 Baricho II Mombasa Expansion (41,000 m3/day, 2 years impl.)

For Mombasa Boreholes (3 BH, 10,500m3/d each) 4,800,000
Pumping Units,2200m3/hr, 240m 3,750,000
Baricho - Mombasa Transmission Mains,32"/50km,(Mostly PN40) 40,782,422
Baricho - Mombasa Transmission Mains,32"/31km,PN25 20,880,600
7.1 Total 70,213,022
8 Nanighi Barrage and Pipeline (130,000 m3/day, 4 years impl.)

Barrage at Nanighi 90,000,000
Gravity Transmission Mains, 80"/180km/PN16 459,000,000
8.1 Total 549,000,000
9 Garsen Barrage and Pipeline (130,000 m3/day, 3 years impl.)

Barrage at Garsen 2,000,000
Pumping Station, 6000 m3/hr, 220m 4,795,546
Transmission Mains, 48"/75km, PN25 137,459,766
9.1 Total 144,255,312
10 Msambweni Aquifer / Mkurumudzi Dam (20,000 m3/day)

97
Capital
No. Source/Project Cost
(US$)
Rehabilitation of Well field 4,000,000
Pumping station for Lunga Lunga, 200 m3/hr,120m 200,000
Rehabilitation of Mkurumudzi Dam 4,000,000
Pumping station to Ukunda, 500 m3/hr, 80m 379,535
10.1 Total 8,579,535
11 Kakuyuni Marafa Scheme

new transmission main10"/20km 4,161,083
Pumping station for Marafa at Kakuyuni 200 m3/hr,50m 300,000
New Marafa Tank 1,000m3 300,000
11.1 Total 4,761,083
12 Hola Scheme
water intake and pumping station 750,000
transmission mains 650,000
12.1 Total 1,400,000
13 Bura Scheme
water intake and pumping station 750,000
transmission mains 850,000
13.1 Total 1,600,000
14 Njoro Kubwa
intake works 450,000
new transmission main 1,050,000
Pumping station 500,000
14.1 Total 2,000,000
5.5 Stand-Alone Analyses of Projects
In order to ease the funding of new water projects, under these two foundations,
the consultant formed 8 scenarios in the pre-feasibility report and later with the
approval of the WB, AFD and the client minimize it to 4 in the draft full
feasibility report. Since at the full pre-feasibility a comment were given by WB
that one realistic option is missing, we add the fifth scenario (B1.1) in order to
cover more options.
Table ‎5-2: Basic Financial Indicators by Scheme Comment [J5]: Comment was: In table
5.2, are we having the same volumes in all
the scenarios?
No explanation given regarding the
comment
Michael look at this

98
Average
Total Average Average NPV
Capital IRR Water Cost
item
Project / Indicator Investment energy O&M (us$

Cost (%) (US$ /m3)
(us$ Million) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) Million)
(US$/m3)
1 Baricho Immediate
Finance 47.75 0.188 0.25 0.07 -5.262 -6.79% 0.5101
2
Mwache Dam 241.85 0.141 0.08 0.05 71.564 54.99% 0.2685
3
Large Rare Dam 213.47 0.113 0.14 0.04 65.248 74.66% 0.2963
5
Mzima II 293.43 0.308 0.02 0.10 25.165 46.38% 0.4307
6 Baricho II (Mal.
Expansion) 19.82 0.078 0.09 0.03 16.890 268.44% 0.2014
4
Small Rare Dam 128.00 0.122 0.10 0.04 43.885 78.34% 0.2681
7 Baricho II (Mom.
Expansion) 70.20 0.148 0.23 0.05 -0.051 10.16% 0.4304
8 Nanighi Barrage and
Pipeline 549.00 0.443 - 0.15 -51.564 - 0.5911
9 Garsen Barrage and
Pipeline 142.26 0.104 0.20 0.04 30.276 64.64% 0.3441
10 Msambweni Aquifer /
Mkurumudzi Dam 8.58 0.037 0.07 0.01 19.222 452.73% 0.1217

99
5.6 Financial Analysis
5.6.1 General
Financial analysis was conducted from the perspective of the water utilities firm,
namely CWSB.
For each of the selected scenarios, Table 5-3 presents the financial figures of the
main indicators – total investment per scenario; average capital, energy and O&M
expenditures per m3 supplied; and the final water cost per m3 supplied
Table ‎5-3: Basic Financial Indicators by Scenario
Financial Indicators
Average Total
Scenario Total
Capital Energy O&M Water Water
Investment
Cost Cost Cost Cost Volume
(million US$)
(US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (m3/day)
Scenario B1 681.642 0.112 0.122 0.057 0.29 396,000
Scenario B1.1 516.230 0.098 0.130 0.062 0.29 391,000
Scenario B3 516.227 0.137 0.211 0.056 0.40 391,000
Scenario B5 463.897 0.159 0.123 0.047 0.33 386,000
Scenario C2 699.591 0.108 0.114 0.154 0.38 391,000
5.6.2 Total Investment Comment [J6]: Comment was: What

would be the effect of having loans on
commercial terms? Does it mean that
Total investment varies substantially, from US$ 465 million for Scenario B5 to without donor loans the projects may turn
over US$ 680 million for Scenario B1. As expected, the large and diverse water out to be less feasible?
Response was: Without donor's loans, the
sources programmed for development in this scenario (both Mwache and financial cost per unit of water will
Mzima 2) and the early stage of heavy investment (during Phase 1) generate a increase. However, The economic cost will
remain the same.
substantial capital investment amount. Scenario B5, on the other hand, relies
mainly on the gradual development of the adjacent Baricho 2 source, with
augmentation of desalination steadily developed throughout the three phases.
Note:
 All investments are considered loans taken at the following terms:
 10 year grace period with an annual interest rate of 1%
 Additional 30 years of refund with an annual interest rate of 3%.
 The loan is considered to be taken at the year of implementation).
5.6.3 Average Capital Cost per m3

100
The share of the capital cost along with the funding costs which are attributed to
the price (cost) of each m3 of water supplied. As expected, and since the total
amount of water supply is similar in all scenarios, this indicator corresponds to
the previous. Capital costs per m3 range between US$ 0.098 and US$ 0.159 for
scenarios B1.1 and B5, respectively.
5.6.4 Cost of Energy per m3
Variations are also evident when analyzing this indicator:
 Scenarios C2 and B3, with energy expenses of 0.21 US$/m3, have the highest
energy cost per m3 supplied.
 As expected, the energy-intensive scenarios – C2 ("desalination-based")
and B3 ("Baricho first") – have the higher energy expenses.
 Since Baricho is a significant project in each scenario, the energy
expenses are similar.
 Scenarios B1 with energy expenses of 0.12 US$/m3, has the lowest energy
cost per m3 supplied.
5.6.5 Cost of O&M per m3
Within the scenarios that do not utilize desalination to a significant degree – B1,
B1.1, B3 and B5 – the amount attributed to each m3 supplied varies between
US$ 0.06 and US$ 0.07. Since O&M (without the energy component) is
calculated as a fixed percentage of total investment costs (1% in all projects, an
additional 3% for desalination units and 14% for membranes replacement), the
deviation between scenarios is mostly attributed to the desalination component in
each. By and large, the water supply alternatives that utilize desalination (even
for a relatively small amount of water) exhibit a significantly higher ratio of
O&M in the final cost of each m3 supplied.
For Scenario C2, which is "desalination-dependent", the O&M cost is

significantly higher, at 0.15 US$/m3.
5.6.6 Total Cost of Water per m3
This factor is an aggregation of all expenses attributed to the development of the

water resources, conveyance, treatment and desalination in each scenario per m3
supplied. Therefore, it is a key indicator in the comparison between the
alternatives and gauging the ones that merit additional and more detailed analysis.

101
This indicator varies as follows:
 Scenarios B1 and B1.1 have the lowest cost, at 0.29 US$/m3.

 Scenarios B3 has the highest water cost of 0.40 US$/m3.
Fig. ‎5-1: Total Water Costs – Financial
Fig. ‎5-2: Cost and Composition per m3 – Financial Costs
5.6.7 NPV and IRR

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Table 5-4 presents the financial net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of
return (IRR) of each scenario.
At 10% discount rate, three of the scenarios (except B3 and C2) exhibit a positive
NPV ranging between US$ 0.3 million (B5) to US$ 21 million (B1 and B1.1),
with IRRs of 10 % to 35%, respectively.
Table ‎5-4: Calculated Indicators – Financial
NPV IRR
Scenario
(million US$) (%)
B1 20.41 35.42%
B1.1 21.08 35.05%
B3 -41.60 -5.65%
B5 0.27 10.26%
C2 -23.70 ND
5.7 Economic Analysis
5.7.1 General
Economic analysis examines the feasibility and viability of each scenario from
the perspective of the entire regional and national economy.
For each of the selected scenarios, Table 5-5 presents the economic figures of the
main indicators – total investment per scenario; average capital, energy and O&M
expenditures per m3 supplied; and the final water cost per m3 supplied
Table ‎5-5: Basic Economic Indicators by Scenario
Economic Indicators
Average Economic Total
Scenario Total Water
Capital Energy O&M Water
Investment Volume
Cost Cost Cost Cost
(million US$) (m3/day)
(US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3)
Scenario B1 681.64 0.473 0.110 0.051 0.63 396,000
Scenario B1.1 516.23 0.519 0.117 0.056 0.69 391,000
Scenario B3 516.23 0.463 0.190 0.050 0.70 391,000
Scenario B5 463.90 0.392 0.111 0.042 0.55 386,000
Scenario C2 699.59 0.450 0.102 0.139 0.69 391,000

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5.7.2 Cost of Energy per m3
Costs exhibit negligible variations – between 0.10 US$/m3 and 0.19 US$/m3.
It should be noted again that energy costs include pumping and conveyance, and
do not include desalination needs. Hence, Scenario C2 is competitive at this level.
5.7.3 Cost of O&M per m3
Within the scenarios that do not utilize desalination to a significant degree – B1,
B1.1, B3 and B5 – the amount attributed to each m3 supplied varies between
US$ 0.05 and US$ 0.06. Since O&M (without the energy component) is
calculated as a percentage of total investment costs (1% in all projects, an
additional 3% for desalination units and 14% for membranes replacement), the
deviation between scenarios is mostly attributed to the desalination component in
each. By and large, the water supply alternatives that utilize desalination (even
for a relatively small amount of water) exhibit a significantly higher ratio of
O&M in the final cost of each m3 supplied.
For Scenario C2, which is "desalination-dependent", the O&M cost is

significantly higher, at 0.14 US$/m3.
5.7.4 Total Cost of Water per m3
This factor is an aggregation of all expenses attributed to the development of the

water resources, conveyance, treatment and desalination in each scenario per m3
supplied. Therefore, it is a key indicator in the comparison between the
alternatives and gauging the ones that merit additional and more detailed analysis.
This indicator varies as follows:
 Scenario B5 has the lowest cost, at 0.55 US$/m3.

 This is due mostly to the low total investment required and corresponding
average capital cost per unit supplied.
 The water costs for the other scenarios – B1, B1.1, B3 and C2 – range
between 0.63 US$/m3 (B1) and 0.70 US$/m3 (B3).
The relative cost composition of each m3 supplied is presented in Fig. 5-3.

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Fig. ‎5-3: Total water costs – economic costs
Fig. ‎5-4: Cost and composition per m3 – economic costs
5.7.5 ENPV and EIRR
Table 5-6 presents the economic net present value (ENPV) and the economic
internal rate of return (EIRR) of each scenario.
For all five scenarios, the ENPV is negative. However, Scenarios B1, B1.1, B3
and B5 have a positive EIRR, ranging between 0.64% (B3) and 3.31% (B5).

105
Table ‎5-6: Calculated Indicators – Economic
ENPV EIRR
Scenario
(million US$) (%)
B1 -180.19 2.64%
B1.1 -215.35 1.04%
B3 -229.30 0.64%
B5 -125.67 3.31%
C2 -201.87 ND
5.8 Financial & Economic Analysis for Lamu Area
The financial and economic analysis for the Water Supply Development
scenarios for the Lamu area is presented in Tables 5-6 and 5-7
Table ‎5-7: Lamu Area – Basic Financial Indicators by Scenario
Average
Total
Capital Energy O&M NPV IRR Water
Scenario Investment
Cost Cost Cost (million US$) (%) Cost
(million US$)
(US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3)
L2: (Garsen Barrage) 152.71 0.26 0.21 0.08 20.31 18.03% 0.564
Fig. ‎5-5: Lamu area total water costs – financial costs

106
Fig. ‎5-6: Lamu area cost and composition per m3 – financial costs
Table ‎5-8: Lamu Area – Basic Economic Indicators by Scenario
Average Economic
Total
Capital EIRR Water
Scenario Investment
Cost Energy O&M ENPV (%) Cost
(million US$)
(US$/m3) (US$/m3) (US$/m3) (million US$) (US$/m3)
L2: (Garsen Barrage) 152.71 0.70 0.19 0.08 -50.42 6.39% 0.97

107
Fig. ‎5-7: Lamu area total water costs – economic costs
Fig. ‎5-8: Lamu area cost and composition per m3 – economic costs

108
Table ‎5-9: Lamu Area Calculated Indicators – Financial
NPV IRR
Scenario
(million US$) (%)
L1: (Nanighi Barrage) -123.09 -5.58%
L2: (Garsen Barrage) -19.89 1.83%
L3: (Desalination) -85.15 ND
Note: ND = not defined
Table ‎5-10: Lamu Area Calculated Indicators – Economic
ENPV EIRR
Scenario
(million US$) (%)
L1: (Nanighi Barrage) -357.77 -0.70%
L2: (Garsen Barrage) -86.60 2.15%
L3: (Desalination) -127.62 ND
Note: ND = not defined
5.9 Analysis of Supply Options for Taita-Voi Area
Table 4-4 summarizes the comparison of alternatives for supply for Taveta
County.
Table ‎5-11: Development Scenarios for Taita – Voi Area
Sub Scenario 1: Supply water from the Njoro Kubwa Springs to Mwatate & Wundanyi only
Sub Scenario 2: Supply water from Mzima Pipeline to Mwatate & Wundanyi only
Sub Scenario 3: Supply water from the Njoro Kubwa Springs to Mwatate +Wundanyi + Voi
Total water demand Units Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Total water demand, 2035 m3/d 9,442 9,442 25,800
Total water demand, 2035 m3/d 393 393 1,075
Elevations
Taveta m 750 750 750
Mwatate m 860 860 860
Wundanyi m 1,450 1,450 1,450
Voi/Maungu m 600 600 600
Distances
Taveta-Mwatate km 75 75 75
Voi-Mwatate km 30 30 30
Taveta-Voi km
Elevation difference
Voi-Mwatate m 260 260 260
Taveta-Voi
Head Loss Taveta-Mwatate m 187.5 187.5 187.5
Head Loss Voi-Mwatate m 75 75

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Total dynamic head (TDH)

Voi-Mwatate m 335 335
Mwatate-Voi m gravity
Diameter
Taveta-Mwatate mm 400 400 1,000
Voi-Mwatate mm 400 400 600
Capital cost
Pipe per km US$/km 250,000 250,000 450,000
Pump per km US$/km 250,000 250,000 350,000
Pumps (US$ per Q/H) 100 100 70
Total cost
Pipes US$ x 106 18,750,000 7,500,000 41,250,000
Pumps US$ x 106 11,704,443 13,179,793 22,386,734
Energy
Total operating US$/y 1,281,636 1,443,187 3,501,925
Annual costs
NPV US$
Rate % 10% 10%
Lifespan of pipes years 50 50
Lifespan of pumps years 15 15
Total annual costs

Taveta-Mwatate Capital US$/y 3,250,773 6,761,029
Voi-Mwatate Capital US$/y 2,287,494
Taveta-Mwatate Energy US$/y 1,281,636 3,501,925
Voi-Mwatate Energy US$/y 1,443,18
Total annual costs US$/y 4,532,410 3,730,681 10,262,954
Total annual volume m3/y 3,446,417 3,446,417 9,416,941
Specific cost (per m3) US$/m3 1.32 1.08 1.09
Note:
 Calculations do not include the additional cost needed to pump the water to
Wundanyi town.
 It should be noted that additional pumping of 500 m (from +860 masl at
Mwatate to +1,350 masl at Wundanyi) is essential in order to supply water.

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6. Multi-Criteria Analysis
6.1 Background
Selection of the optimal water supply solution entails issues which are beyond the
traditional engineering and economic considerations.
The Multi Criteria analysis provides a systematic approach that enables a more
objective evaluation of the scenarios on disciplines which are not quantitative
such as environmental or social parameters. In recent years, multi-criteria
analysis has become an invaluable tool for the evaluation of different scenarios.
Each indicator of the design is allocated a different weight that reflects the
importance that the stakeholder or the expert assigns to it.
Four main filed of interests (also called "parameters") were selected for
comparison and weighting. They are deemed the most appropriate by the
stakeholders and the experts: variables within each one of the parameters are
named indicators:
 Engineering aspects.
 Financial and economic considerations.
 Environmental considerations.
 Social & Political aspects.
Table ‎6-1: Classification and Weighting of Parameters and Indicators for
Assigned
Criteria / Parameter
Weights
A. Engineering Sustainability 30%
Feasibility of implementation 40%
Reliability of Resources 30%
Diversity of Resources 30%
B. Economic Considerations 40%
NPV 20%
IRR 35%
O&M Costs 10%
Calculated Water Cost 35%
C. Environmental Issues 15%
Water Quality 30%
Downstream Impact 30%
Energy Consumption 30%
Construction Effects 10%
D. Social & Political aspects 15%
Supply Coverage 30%
Resettlement / Income Loss 40%
Political acceptability 30%

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6.2 Results Comment [J7]: Comment was: By this

criteria B1 is the best option! Ecofin criteria
shows B5 is the best! Which do we follow?
Table 6-2 presents the final results and the weighted average of each scenario. -Can the multi-criteria be simulated from
the current schemes at Baricho, Mzima etc
Scenario B1 has the highest overall score of 76.8, followed by B5. and the classification weights realistically
established?
Response was: The multi criteria
methodology is used to simulate all
Table ‎6-2: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply aspects in order to identify the best
scenario
Inner Scenario
Item Criteria / Parameter Classification
Weighting B1 B1.1 B3 B5 C1
1.1 Feasibility of implementation 40% 80 70 50 65 50
1.2 Reliability of Resources 30% 90 70 70 60 90
1.3 Diversity of Resources 30% 90 80 80 20 100
Engineering Summary 86 73 65 50 77
2.1 NPV 20% 47 13 0 100 26
2.2 IRR 35% 80 31 19 100 0
2.3 O&M Costs 10% 83 76 85 100 31
2.4 Calculated Water Cost 35% 86 79 78 100 79
Economic Summary 76 49 42 100 36
3.1 Water Quality 30% 90 70 70 50 95
3.2 Downstream Impact 30% 60 60 70 50 60
3.3 Energy Consumption 30% 90 70 70 80 50
3.4 Construction Effects 10% 60 60 70 80 50
Environmental Summary 78 66 70 62 67
4.0 Social & Political Aspects 15%
4.1 Supply Coverage 30% 100 80 80 80 80
4.2 Resettlement / Income Loss 40% 80 70 70 50 60
4.3 Political acceptability 30% 100 90 50 50 30
Social Summary 60 51 39 39 33
Total 100% 76.8 59.0 52.8 70.2 52.4
Rank 1 3 4 2 5
Scenario B5 has the highest score regarding financial & economic aspects (lowest
investment and lowest O&M costs), but the lowest engineering and
environmental score.
Table ‎6-3: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply (Engineering priority)
Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario

Criteria Classification
B1 B1.1 B3 B5 C2
Engineering Sustainability 45% 86 73 65 50 77
Economic Considerations 25% 76 49 42 100 36
Environmental Issues 15% 78 66 70 62 66.5
Social & Political Issues 15% 60 51 39 39 33
Total 100% 78.4 62.6 56.2 62.7 58.6

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Rank 1 3 5 2 4
Table ‎6-4: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply (Environmental priority)

B1 B1.1 B3 B5 C2
Total 100% 77.1 60.8 57.6 68.7 56.1
Rank 1 3 4 2 5
Table ‎6-5: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply (Social & Political priority)

B1 B1.1 B3 B5 C2
Total 100% 71.7 56.3 48.3 61.8 46.1
Rank 1 3 4 2 5
Table 6.6 presents the final results and the weighted average of the development
scenarios for the Lamu area. The Garsen scenario has the highest overall score of
64.6, followed by the Nanighi scenario with an overall score of 49.4.

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Table ‎6-6: Multi-Criteria Analysis for the Lamu Area
Inner Nanighi Garsen Desalination

Item Criteria Classification
Weighting Scenario Scenario Scenario
1.1 Feasibility of implementation 40% 40 60 100
1.3 Reliability of resources 30% 80 70 100
1.4 Diversity of resources 30% 0 0 0
Engineering Summary 100% 40 45 70
2.1 NPV 20% 32 100 0
2.2 IRR 35% 86 100 0
2.3 O&M costs 10% 36 100 47
2.4 Calculated water cost 35% 95 100 57
Economic Summary 100% 40 65 5
3.1 Water quality 30% 80 70 100
3.2 Downstream impact 30% 50 70 70
3.3 Energy consumption 30% 100 60 40
3.4 Construction period 10% 60 60 50
Environmental Summary 100% 75 66 68
4.0 Social Issues 15%
4.1 Supply coverage 30% 100 90 70
4.2 Resettlement / income loss 40% 80 70 70
4.3 Political acceptability 30% 90 80 50
Social Summary 100% 90 86 56
Total 100% 52.8 62.3 41.5
Rank 2 1 3

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7. Additional Development Considerations

7.1 Significance of the Development of the Bulk Water Supply
System on the WSP's Water Distribution Networks
7.1.1 Overview
Development of the bulk water supply system will improve supply of water via
the main system to storage reservoirs and to distribution systems managed by
WSP's.
A change in the mode of water supply, enhanced water availability and operation
of the system to provide water 24 hours a day, seven days a week (24/7) will
result in improved reliability of water supply, with its inherent potential for better
billing of water consumers for use of water (by raising their willingness to pay).
At the same time, attention must be paid to the impact of augmented water supply
from the main system to the local systems, a fact that will only emphasize the
need for preparing a multiannual program for rehabilitation of the water
distribution pipelines. Preparation of such a program will take into consideration
the expected changes in the water supply system as well as the age of the
pipelines, frequency of pipe bursts along the lines, past data vis-à-vis present pipe
failures, construction materials, type of soil, and other factors.
Attention must be given to the following factors, as described below:
 Impact on water pressures

 Impact on water losses
 Effect of pressure on pipe bursts
 Effect on the mode of water supply
 System operation
7.1.2 Impact on Water Pressures
Augmentation of water supply and filling of the pipelines in which the current
water pressure is low or in which there is no water at all for several hours of the
day will result in a rise in water pressure in these lines. Apart from the
implications with respect to bursts (see following item), it should be borne in
mind that open taps, distribution points without valves and similar deficiencies
exist in certain parts of the system, with water flowing out from these points for a
limited number of hours a day (corresponding to the number of hours in which
water reaches these points).
Local water companies must map all demand points lacking in taps or valves and
take the necessary action to close these points in order to prevent uncontrolled
flow of water for several hours a day.

115
7.1.3 Impact on Water Losses
Water losses may be defined as a phenomenon involving leakage of water from

small cracks and holes in the system, generally caused by corrosion inside the
pipe. Cracks are also caused by fatigue at welded joints or by stresses exerted by
the ground on the pipe. All of the above cause leakage of water from the pipes,
with the extent of leakage depending on three factors:
 The size of the hole or crack.

 The water pressure prevailing in the pipeline, affecting flow.
 The period of time elapsed from the start of leakage.
The size of the hole or crack is an independent variable and is principally a

function of the pipe "history" (i.e. age, mode of laying, quality of material,
workmanship, type of soil).
The expected water pressure in the local water supply systems will increase with
an improvement in water supply in the main system. At the present stage, it is
difficult to quantify the expected increase in losses as a result of the existing
leakages in the system and the expected total losses. At the same time, it is
known that a non-linear relationship exists between water pressure and general
losses from cracks and holes. The exponent in this mathematical relationship is
1.2–1.3 in water supply systems of medium size, and up to 1.5 in small systems.
This means that an additional pressure of 30% (e.g., raising the water supply
pressure from an average of 2 bar to 2.6 bar) will cause an increase of 301.2 units
in leakage flow, i.e. an increase of 60% in local losses vis-à-vis the original value.
If we add to this the fact that water supply will be continuous and not just for a
few hours a day, it may be concluded that the potential increase in water losses is
up to 2–3 times the existing figure.
This issue calls for immediate attention and for definition of courses of action to
be followed by water supply providers. In the Consultant's estimation, CWSB
should be regarded as responsible for the main water supply system, being the
technical entity governing all matters relating, inter alia, to improvement of water
loss management, reduction of leakages in the existing system, and performance
of water surveys for identification of additional sources of loss.
7.1.4 Effect of Pressure on Pipe Bursts
Increasing the water pressure will bring about an increase in the number of pipe
bursts in the old systems. A rise in the supply pressure following the higher
quantity of available water that will be conveyed from the main lines to the
distribution lines will result in local water hammer. This will cause instantaneous
water pressure (lasting from fractions of a second to 2–3 seconds) that is 4–5

116
times the nominal water pressure. The intensity of water hammer depends mainly
on the volume of the water supply system upstream of the burst.
Over time, water hammer causes a weakening of the joints between the pipes,
thus reducing the resistance of the joints to additional leakage. When the joints
undergo fatigue, the probability of a failure and subsequent burst increases and
the number of bursts rises. The volume of water lost from these bursts depends
primarily on the water pressure prevailing in the pipeline and the response time of
the maintenance crew responsible for repairing the fault.
7.1.5 Effect on the Mode of Water Supply
A change in the water sources feeding the local supply system (with particular
reference to the Mombasa system) necessitates adaptation of the supply systems
to the change in the supply mode.
At present, for some of the water supply providers, water is supplied to the
existing system via a main feed pipeline from the regional system. The increase
in the quantities of water necessitates adaptation of the local system. This will
have to be done by increasing the size or by extending/adding to the main feed
pipeline and/or adding branches to the distribution network as required, enabling
it to provide a solution for the higher demand downstream and higher supply
upstream.
The most common and well-known means of examining the most suitable
alternatives in each system is by running a hydraulic simulation program that
simulates flows in the various system pipelines, from the feed point to the
consumers. This will allow identification of the pipelines having the highest load
and requiring enlargement and/or examination with respect to development and
construction of new feed lines for water supply.
7.1.6 System Operation
Revised conceptualization is required in the context of the upgraded local water

supply systems with regard to operation of the networks and distribution and
allocation of water to the various consumers.
The switch from intermittent to continuous supply (24/7) could necessitate

additional work on operation and maintenance of the system, additional
manpower for this purpose, training of the operators in troubleshooting, etc.

117
7.2 Significance of the Bulk Water Supply System on the Negative

Effect of Sewage Volumes
7.2.1 Increase in Generated Wastewater Quantities
Enhanced water supply to the city and consumption by urban users will, in a short
time (1–2 years), lead to an increase in the quantities of wastewater generated.
This increase will be phased, in accordance with the phased increase in water
demand.
Initially, the increased water use will be attributed mainly to drinking and
cooking – uses that produce relatively small quantities of wastewater. Once the
convenience of water use is established and the level of system reliability rises,
water use will spread to include washing, as a result of which the quantities of
wastewater produced will increase.
In considering full use of water (domestic use for all purposes, including sanitary
use) it is customary to assume that about 60–70% of the water enters the
wastewater system. The part that does not end up as wastewater is assumed to be
water that does not result in flows to the wastewater system. Even if a minimum
contribution to wastewater is assumed in the initial years of main system
development – of the order of magnitude of 10–20 lpcd – the total contribution to
wastewater is expected to be thousands of cubic metres per day in small
communities, to tens and hundreds of thousands of cubic metres per day in large
communities, not to mention Mombasa and neighbouring towns.
7.2.2 Long-Term Planning of the Wastewater Collection System
Due attention must be given at present to the need for long-term planning of the
wastewater collection system, as follows:
 In the absence of a proper wastewater collection system, most of the

wastewater will continue to flow to percolating pits, causing contamination of
the groundwater and aquifer systems. There are already areas where the
groundwater underlying urban areas is experiencing increased levels of
pollution, precluding its use.
 The absence of wastewater collection systems creates a potential for the
outbreak of diseases and epidemics in built-up areas. The lack of proper
wastewater removal systems as an underlying cause of diseases and
epidemics worldwide is well known. Based on the common assumption that
discharge of wastewater to percolating pits in the ground is not a solution,
there is an increasingly acute need for preparing and implementing a plan for
collection of wastewater in parallel with the increase in use of water by the
population.
 Collection of wastewater by means of gravity systems constitutes merely the
first link in a wastewater recycling system for reuse in agriculture in Kenya.

118
For this purpose it is necessary to prepare a plan that takes a holistic view of
the issue of water recycling:
 Design and construction of gravity wastewater collection systems in the
urban domain.
 Preparation of a general regional plan with respect to the location of
wastewater treatment plants and discharge of all the wastewater to these
plants.
 Determination of criteria and standards for recycled water quality and
recognition of this water as a resource.
 Planning of recycled water supply systems for agriculture, ensuring
congruity between the quality of the water and the end uses.
Preparation of a regional plan for collection, treatment, reclamation and reuse of

wastewater in the area of jurisdiction of the Coast Province in Kenya has become
a cardinal need and all the necessary resources must be directed towards this end.
Failure to prepare such a plan will not only result in continued pressure on water
sources and abstraction of fresh water from natural sources for agricultural use
but will also cause further contamination of groundwater due to the rise in water
use and increased contribution to wastewater.
Collection and treatment of wastewater serving no useful purpose in order to

reuse it in agriculture will allow greater quantities of water to be made available
for the agricultural sector, improve cultivation conditions for the farmers by
supplying additional quantities of water that are not rainfall-dependent, and at the
same time raise sanitary levels in the urban sector.
The distance between the main population centres in the area will call for
preparation of a regional master plan for wastewater treatment centres and
transfer points for diversion of water to the agricultural sector, including
weighting of the costs of wastewater conveyance over long distances (it is not
customary to pump wastewater over distances exceeding 10–12 km). On the other
hand, due consideration must also be given to the number of wastewater
treatment plants planned as they entail high operating costs in addition to the
initial investments.

119
8. Discussion and Conclusions Comment [J8]: Comment was

regarding the last paragraph: The phasing of
development is not clear and this should be
substantiated further.
The coastal areas of Kenya are characterized by a limited number of suitable This section has been re-written
water sources. Approximately six major sources can be utilized for a
comprehensive program of the magnitude of the Master Plan. These are Mwache
River, Baricho well field, Mzima springs, Rare River, Tana River and Njoro
Kubwa springs.
Any bulk water solutions for this area for the horizon period will need to utilize at
least three of these (Tana River for the northern coastal area). Therefore all of the
assessed scenarios will consist of a sequential development of a combination of
these sources.
Other sources such as deep groundwater may be feasible. The consultant

proposes more detailed studies to verify the potential of the neogene aquifer.
The CWSB jurisdiction area includes isolated rural settlements which are
characterized by low population densities and low demand for water. These
villages are also distant from any of the potential bulk water supply systems. The
proposed solutions will be based on the development of small and local water
sources.
As mentioned above, the bulk water supply will be based on several large
sources.
The basic assumptions of the consultant were to select a scenario that is

technically feasible, economically viable, environmentally sound and socially
desirable. An option that provides diversified sources regarding both spatial
origin and source type. Hence, a combination of groundwater and surface water.
The consultant recommends the following development:
The proposed Mwache dam is located near to the Mombasa demand centre, has
sufficient annual flows and can be utilized as a long term sustainable source.
Baricho well field is already a major source for Mombasa and Malindi. Plans for
its expansion (Baricho II) can augment Mwache and provide all of the water
requirements for the region up and including phase II (2025).
The population projections and water demand assessments conducted by the

consultant indicate that both Mwache and Baricho will be able to supply the
demand until approximately 2030.
Analysis of the Mzima springs indicates that it is a reliable source and has been
supplying the Mombasa area since the 1950s. The suggested Mzima II project
can be developed at a later stage to increase the supply by phase III.
The final Water Supply scenario for Mombasa and the other coastal towns has
been designed and recommended by the consultant and then reviewed, evaluated
and approved by the client (CWSB) and by the donors (WB and AFD).

120
This is scenario B1 which includes the sequential and gradual development of the
following segments.
1. Early expansion of Baricho that will add approximately 22,000 m3 by 2015
(through immediate investments).
2. Design, construction and operation of the Mwache dam. This will add an
estimated 186,000 m3 by 2020.
3. Full expansion of Baricho to add 63,000 m3 by 2024
4. And finally development of the Mzima II source that will add approximately
105,000 m3 towards phase III horizon of the Master Plan, 2030.
This Water Supply scheme has the advantages of providing a gradually
increasing supply of water concurrent to the increase and spatial patterns of the
regional population, its future agricultural and industrial composition and the
expected expansion of economic capabilities of individuals and firms within the
coastal areas. Moreover, this scheme optimizes water availability, development
deadlines, financial considerations and environmental impacts.
Extensive analysis by the consultant (see table 4-2) indicates that initial
development of Mwache dam is an essential precondition for the timely supply of
water during phase I that will ensure the required amount at feasible costs/prices.
Postponing the development of Mwache or deferring it to a later stage (say after
Mzima II) may result in a gap between demand and supply towards 2020. It is the
consultant's judgment that the development of Mzima as a major water supply
source during phase I will result in a lengthy construction period, high investment
costs, high water prices and insufficient amounts of water to cover expanding
demand towards 2020.
Mzima II source should and will be developed during phase III, after the final
development and operation of Mwache and Baricho.
This option delivers the most efficient engineering solution while maintaining
reasonable financial values and minimizing social and political obstacles. The
primacy of this option is also evident from the multi criteria analysis results.
Another feasible source is the Rare River. NWC&PC is currently conducting a
feasibility study on this dam. This can also serve as a potential source for phase
III as detailed in scenario B1.1.
The development of the LAPSSET Corridor and especially the Lamu port
requires drastic increase in water demand and supply. The lead alternative for the
Lamu port and surroundings is supply water from the Tana River near Garsen.
Gradual development of medium size desalination plants, to meet the growing
demand over the time, is also an attractive option. The expedience of desalination
plants will mainly depends on the availability of electricity and its prices.
Small and medium settlements along the Tana River will be able to augment the
water supply directly from the Tana River.

121
Taveta Township will rely mainly on gradual development of Njoro Kubwa

Springs which is located 3km from the town. It was clearly found that it will not
be economically viable to connect Taveta to the bulk water supply.
Availability of deep groundwater from the neogenic aquifer is yet to be verified,

hence it is the consultant opinion that further studies should be conducted prior to
further development of this source. This is the reason that deep groundwater has
not been used in the water balance calculations.

122

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REPUBLIC OF KENYA COAST WATER

MINISTRY OF WATER SERVICES BOARD

Water and Sanitation Service Improvement Project (WaSSIP)

Consultancy Services for Water Supply Master Plan for

Final Full Feasibility Study

May 2013 (modified ver. 4 November 2013)

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

4.5.1 General ..................................................................................................... 79

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Table ‎3-12: Rare Reservoir Site – Simulated Monthly Flows (MCM),

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

 Assessment of current water resources based on a review of previous reports, studies

 Determination of a methodology for creation of the supply option: A methodology was

Two basic principles were set as a key rule of each phase:

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Current Water Resources

Table Exec-1: Current Water Supply Capacity in the Coast Province

Installed Capacity Year

Future Water Resources

Surface Water Potential

The analysis of surface water includes five main assignments, namely:

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

 Amount of recharge to the aquifer (high and low scenarios).

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

 Distance from the ocean.

The conclusions regarding groundwater potential in the South Coast include:

 Groundwater potential determined for Tiwi and Msambweni areas is approximately

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Potential recharge of freshwater to this aquifer should be thoroughly investigated. However,

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Rainfall Roof Harvesting

Promotion and construction of rainfall harvesting technology is deemed suitable in the

Population and Water Demand Projection

Table Exec-2: Summary of the Coast Province Population

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Taita Taveta 284,657 304,757 324,856 375,911 440,427 516,016 604,578

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Development Strategies and Scenarios for the Interconnected Bulk Water

 Priority expansion of existing resources

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Financial & Economic Analysis

The investment indicators included:

Financial indicators included:

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Table Exec-4: Main Financial Indicators

Table Exec-5: Main Economic Indicators

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Figure Exec-1: Composition of Calculated Financial Water Costs

Figure Exec-2: Composition of Calculated Economic Water Costs

NPV and IRR

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Table Exec-6: Financial Indicators

Table Exec-7: Economic Indicators

Lamu area – Financial analysis of Scenarios

Table Exec-8: Lamu Area – Basic Financial Indicators by Scenario

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th

Figure Exec-3: Composition of Calculated Water Costs (Lamu Area)

Multi Criteria Analysis

Table Exec-9: Multi-Criteria Analysis for Bulk Water Supply

Final Full Feasibility Study - CWSB WSMP 4th