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Wind power assessment of Sitio Bangkal, Abucay, Bataan using Weibull

distribution model

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 Wind power assessment of Sitio Bangkal, Abucay, Bataan
using Weibull distribution model

Eugene V. Vega
Graduate School of Engineering

De La Salle University, Manila

Abstract

Proper wind power resource assessment is standard and important component for most
wind energy ventures.The wind energy potential is particularly dependent on location, terrain,
climatic conditions and other factors. Thus, a site-specific wind potential study is required to
adequately assess the wind energy resource for a particular area. This study aims to assess the
wind energy resource of an upland area in Bangkal, Abucay,Bataan using the Weibull analysis
model. Time series data for 2009 was analyzed and the Weibull distribution parameters were
estimated. The results show that power can be generated 53% of the time during the year with
mean power density of 200 W/m2. This is considered a moderate wind resource potential and
can be further explored for future development focused on rural application.

Introduction

According to the Department of Energy, renewable energy will be among the major sources of

energy for the next decade, accounting for more than a third of the country's total energy demand. In

particular, the demand for wind energy sources is foreseen to grow with the implementation of the

program initiated by the government to invigorate the market for wind turbine and wind pumps

applications. A total of 417 MW indicative capacity additions using wind resources for the next ten years,

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has been lined up and are awaiting interested proponents [1]. Thus, wind power studies as initial step in

establishing wind energy utilization becomes more important.

Many regions that are most attractive in terms of wind potential are located near coasts, inland

areas with open terrain or on the edge of bodies of water or off-shore sites. In spite of these geographical

limitations for wind power development, there is ample terrain in most areas to provide a significant

portion of the local electricity needs with wind energy projects [2]. The Philippines, being located in the

Asia-Pacific monsoon belt, exhibits a promising potential for wind energy. Data from the Philippine

Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) shows that the country has a mean

average of about 31 W/m2 of wind power density. The United States National Renewable Energy

Laboratory (NREL) in 2001 conducted a wind resource analysis and mapping study for the Philippines to

identify potential wind resource areas and to quantify the value of that resource within these areas. This

study shows that over 10,000 km2 of windy land areas are estimated to exist with a good-to-excellent

wind resource potential as shown in Table 1. Using conservative assumptions of about 7 MW per sq. km.,

this windy land could theoretically support over 70,000 MW of potential installed capacity [3].

The wind resource in plane inlands and coastal sections of the central Luzon region in particular

is generally moderate to good for rural power applications and marginal to moderate for utility-scale

applications. Good to excellent wind resources are evident in the mountain chain running north–south into

Bataan. For rural application according to NREL, most of Bataan has an estimated potential to generate

100-200 W/m2 of wind power [3].

Wind Resource Wind Power Wind Speed Total Cap Total Power

Utility Scale W/m2 m/s Total Area km2 Installed MW GWh/yr

Good 300-400 6.4-7.0 5, 541 38, 400 85,400

Excellent 400-500 7.0-8.0 2,841 19,700 52,200
Excellent 500-700 8.0-8.8 2,258 15,600 47,900
Excellent 700-1250 8.8-10.1 415 2,900 9,700

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 Total 11,055 76,600 195,200

Table. 1. Philippine Wind Electric Potential: Good-to-Excellent Wind Resource at 30 m (Utility Scale)

Proper wind power resource assessment is standard and important component for most wind energy

project developments.The wind energy potential is particularly dependent on location, terrain, climatic

conditions and other factors. Thus, a site-specific wind potential study is required to adequately assess the

wind energy resource for a particular area.

This study aims to assess the wind energy resource of an upland area in Bangkal, Abucay,Bataan

using the Weibull analysis model. Barangay Bangkal is an upland village in the municipality of Abucay

in the province Bataan in Central Luzon. The municipality of Abucay with a population of about 38,554

and its 9 barangays belongs to the partly urban areas in the Philippines. Bangkal had 560 residents by the

end of 2010 where the major livelihood is upland farming and livestock production. Barangay Bangkal is

510 m above sea-level surrounded by mountainous terrain and facing the Manila Bay where above

average wind speeds are prevalent in the area. Many far flung areas in the community are not yet

electrified. Therefore, the establishment of stand-alone off-grid and renewable energy source such as

wind is being considered to supply the electricity demands of remote areas where grid connection is

inaccessible.

Wind speed data

The wind speed data was gathered from the Automatic Weather Station (AWS) located at the

Bataan Peninsula State University-Abucay Campus at Barangay Bangkal, Abucay, Bataan [3]. The AWS

is located 500 m above sea level with an average ambient temperature of 28 °C. The anemometer is

located on a mast 10 m above ground. For this study, local wind speed data collected for the period

January 2009 to December 2009 at 30-minute intervals is analyzed and wind power density is estimated

using a Weibull distribution model.

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Weibull distribution model

The Weibull distribution is a two-parameter probability density function commonly used to

describe the wind speed frequency distribution. This distribution function is often used in wind energy

engineering, as it conforms well to the observed long-term distribution of mean wind speeds for a range

of sites [5].

The Weibull probability distribution function expresses the probability p(v) to have a wind speed

of v and is given by:

 k  v 
k 1
  v k 
p(v)     exp    (1)
 c  c    c  

The cumulative probability distribution is defined by:

   v  k  
p (v  vi )  p (v  0)1  exp   i   
   c   
(2)

where c is the Weibull scale parameter, with units equal to the wind speed units, k is the

dimensionless Weibull shape parameter and v is wind speed.

The relationship beween the shape scale factor c, and the average wind speed, vave is given by:

 1
v ave  c1   (3)
 k

where Γ is the Gamma function.

For this study, the Weibull probability mass function p(v) and the Weibull cumulative probability

function p(v<vi)is calculated directly using the Weibull distribution function in Excel spreadsheet

software.

Estimation of Weibull parameters

Two methods of estimating the parameters of the Weibull wind speed distribution are in wide

use: the maximum likelihood method and the linear least square method. Of these, the maximum

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likelihood method is generally accepted as the best method for estimating the Weibull parameters k and c.

[5-7]. Using this method as suggested by Stevens and Smulders [6], the shape factor, k and scale factor c

can be estimated from the time-series wind speed data as:

1
 n k n

  vi ln(vi )  ln(vi ) 
k   i 1 n  i 1  (4)
 
  vi
k n

 i 1 
1/ k
 n k 
  vi 
c   i 1  (5)
 n 
 
 

The shape factor k can be estimated by reiteration of equation 4, after which the scale factor c can

be explicitly solved using equation 5. The iteration function of Excel spreadsheet is used to evaluate k and

c.

Wind power density

The wind power for a particular wind speed v per unit of swept area can be estimated from:

P(v)  0.5v 3 (6)

where ρ is the site air density at the site (kg/m3) and can be calculated given the site elevation, z

(m) and air temperature, t (°C) from:

 353.05   z 
   exp  0.034  (7)
 t  273   t  273 

The mean wind power density is the sum of the wind power and the probability for a range of

wind speeds v. This can be estimated from

n
WPD m   0.5 vi p (v )
3
(7)
i 1

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Results and Discussion

Wind Speed characteristics

Time-series wind speed data from January 2009 to December 2009 in 30-minute time steps are

collected, summarized and analyzed. The monthly mean wind speed and the corresponding standard

deviation are shown in Table 2 and depicted in Figure 1.

14
Average wind speed (m/s)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Month

Fig.1. Monthly average wind speeds for the period January to December 2009.

It can be shown that higher average wind speed for the year (highest at 8 m/s) occurs from June to

October and associated with large variation. Lower and steadier average speeds of about 3 m/s prevails

from November to February. The higher wind speed during June to October is due to the active South-

West monsoon season during this period where typhoons frequently pass near the Luzon area. The

significant dispersion of wind speed during this season can also be attributed to the gustiness of the wind

speeds during this season. Steadier wind speeds occur during the months of December to February where

the North-East monsoon prevails characterized by steadier breeze.

Estimated Weibull parameters

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 Application of equations (4) and (5) yields the following estimates of the Weibull parameters for

each month as shown in Table 2.

Month v ave (m/s) σ(m/s) k c (m/s)

January 4.03 2.48 1.73 4.55

February 4.55 2.89 1.81 5.63
March 4.90 2.77 1.86 5.54
April 4.57 3.03 1.60 5.14
May 4.51 2.82 1.72 5.09
June 6.11 5.04 1.32 6.69
July 4.92 3.98 1.36 5.42
August 4.92 5.61 1.25 7.12
September 3.24 2.04 1.75 3.67
October 8.06 4.71 1.78 9.07
November 3.28 1.83 1.93 3.72
December 3.65 2.27 1.74 4.13

Annual 4.93 3.70 1.46 5.49

Table 2. Monthly wind speed characteristics and the corresponding estimated Weibull parameters

The estimated monthly shape factors ranges from 1.25 to 1.93, while the annual k is 1.46. Typical

shape factors range from 1 to 3. It is generally accepted in wind engineering analysis that k is equal to 2

which approaches that of the Rayleigh distribution. Lower k values correspond to broader distributions of

wind speed, meaning that winds tend to vary over a large range of speeds which correlates with higher

standard deviation. Higher k values correspond to narrower wind speed distributions and lower standard

deviations meaning that wind speeds tend to stay within a narrow range of speeds.

Model Validation

Figure 2 shows the actual frequency distribution generated from the time-series data for the

month of February and the corresponding estimated distribution from Weibull model as well as the

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resulting distribution when monthly average wind speed data is synthesized in HOMER, a commercially

available renewable energy optimization software. It is evident that the histogram of the actual wind

speed data approximates quite well the derived Weibull model in the range of speeds greater than 4 m/s

except in the range of speeds from 0 to 2 m/s where a substantial discrepancy is seen. The apparent clutter

of data in this lower range of wind speed is attributed to the limited ability of the wind speed meter to

record wind speeds below 1.6 m/s. A comparison of the Weibull model with wind resource output

produced by HOMER, however shows a close similarity. This is because HOMER uses almost a similar

algorithm but employs other factors in the analysis such as autocorrelation correction factor and diurnal

pattern wind strength [8].

25

20
Frequency

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
wind speed (m/s)

Measured Weibull HOMER

Fig.2. Frequency distribution of measured wind speed, estimated distribution using Weibull

function, and synthesized distribution using HOMER software.

Morover, Figure 3 shows that the cumulative frequency distribution generated from the actual

wind speed data exhibits a good fit with the Weibull cumulative distribution model. Also simulated data

from average monthly wind speeds using HOMER software shows a good fit. Thus, the wind speed

distribution in Barangay Bangkal can be adequately modelled by Weibull distribution.

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 From this data it can be surmised that at this site, wind speeds less than about 12 m/s occurs

almost 100% of the time during the year. If wind power is used for electricity generation, wind turbines

may be installed at the site. Wind turbines typically have a cut-in speed of 4 m/s [3]. At this speed limit,

this site is estimated to have the ability to generate electric power almost 53% of the time during the year.

Downtime is 47% during which the turbines do not develop enough power when wind speed falls below 4

m/s. This reliability of operation should be taken into account when selecting the particular wind power

application for this area. For local off-grid power generation for example, hybrid energy systems may be

considered such as coupling with photovoltaic cells or diesel generators to supplement power during low

wind speed periods.

Cumulative data Cumulative Weibull

Cumulative HOMER
120
Cumulative frequency (%)

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
wind speed (m/s)

Fig. 3. Comparison of the actual cumulative frequency distribution, estimated Weibull cumulative

distribution, and cumulative distribution using HOMER

The resulting monthly wind speed distribution from the derived shape factor k and scale factor c

is depicted in Figure 4.

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 January February March April
May June July August
September October November December
0.25

0.2
probability

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
wind speed (m/s)

Fig. 4. Distribution of monthly wind speeds from the Weibull model

Mean wind power density

The estimated monthly average wind power density derived from Equation 7 is shown in Figure

5. Peak mean wind power density occurs in the months of June (407 W/m2), August (505 W/m2) and

October (634 W/m2). This is because this period is affected by active South-West monsoon season

characterized by heavy rainfall and gusty winds lasting for weeks or months at a time particularly during

typhoons. Lower power densities from minimum of 40 W/m2 in November to 152 W/m2 in February are

prevalent for the remainder of the year. Based on an annual average, the mean wind power density is

about 200 W/m2. This value is higher than the country-wide average power density of 31 w/m2 reported

by PAGASA. [1]. This mean wind power value falls under Class 1 according to the categories developed

by NREL [3]. Class 1 category is classified as having moderate wind power potential for rural

application. Class 1 or higher are considered suitable for wind power development.

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 700

Mean power density (w/m2)

600

500

400

300

200

100

Month

Fig. 5. Average wind power density per month

Conclusions

Time series wind speed data from Sitio Bangkal in Abucay, Bataan is summarized and analyzed. A

Weibull probability model is used to characterize the wind speed distribution by estimating the

distribution parameters. Lastly, the corresponding mean wind power density is evaluated for this site.

Furthermore, the most significant results of this study are:

1. The Weibull distribution model approximates fairly well the wind speed distribution in Bangkal,

Abucay, Bataan based on the annual data collected for 2009. Average monthly wind speed in the

area ranges from 3 to 8 m/s. A more accurate and reliable estimate can be made when more good

quality data for periods exceeding one year is available.

2. Estimates from the cumulative Weibull distribution approximates that for power generation

application using wind turbines, the site has the ability to generate power about 53% of the time.

If used for electricity generation, it should be considered operating the wind turbine in tandem

with other energy sources during periods of low wind speed.

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 3. Results of analysis of time series wind speed data using the Weibull model estimates the monthly

wind power density to be in the range of 40 to 634 W/m2. On the average, 200 W/m2 of wind

power can be harnessed. This is considered a moderate wind resource potential and can be further

explored for future development focused on rural application.

References

[1] http://www.doe.gov.ph

[2] Rangi R, Templin J, Carpentier M, Argue D. Canadian Wind Energy Technical and
Market Potential, EAETB, Energy, Mines and Resources Canada; 1992.

[3] National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Wind energy resource atlas of the Philippines, Colorado,
2001.

[4] http://bpsurdo.multiply.com/journal

[5] Retscreen International. Clean energy project analysis: Retscreen engineering and cases. Natural
Resources Canada; September 2005.

[6] Stevens MJ, Smulders PT. The estimation of the parameters of the Weibull wind speed
distribution for wind energy utilization purposes. Wind Engineering 1979; 3:132-145.

[5] Bhattacharya P. A study on Weibull distribution for estimating the parameters. Journal of Applied
Quantitative Methods 2010; 5: 234-241.

[6] Seguro JV, Lambert TW. Modern estimation of the parameters of the Weibull wind speed
distribution for wind energy analysis. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics 2000;
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[7] Celik, AN. A statistical analysis of wind power density based on the Weibull and Rayleigh
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[8] NREL, HOMER, The Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables, Available from
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, CO 80401-3393, USA,
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[9] Kose K, Ozgur MA, Erbas O, Tugcu A. The analysis of wind data and wind energy potential in
Kutahya, Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2004; 8: 222-288.

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