Amin-Elias-Sanders 10A

Carnival Game: Murder Mystery

There have been crimes committed all over the city and the police are having a difficult

time finding the criminal. Havoc has wreaked amongst citizens, who are either scared to leave

their homes or panicking to evacuate the city as soon as possible. This cannot go on for any

longer! Law enforcement has hired you, a private investigator, to explore the evidence left

behind and catch this villian. Will you be able to save the city from this dangerous perpetrator?

Let’s find out!

I. Description, Rules and Directions

The objective of this game is clear, find the criminal. The table accompanying this game

has outcomes of Round 1 on the left side and outcomes of Round 2 on the right. Whichever

outcome is received, by either spinning the spinner or rolling the pair of dice, is accompanied

with an envelope that is labeled with that outcome. The participant, or investigator, is required to

reach into that envelope after receiving a specific outcome, and following what the card says.

Round 1 requires the player, or the investigator, to spin a spinner that contains six equal

sections. The player would have to spin the spinner and have the arrow land on the number four,

five, or six. If the spinner lands on one, two or three, then the investigator let the criminal get

away and lost the game. However, if four, five or six is obtained, then the investigator has found

evidence and can move on to the next round! The next round involves the rolling of two dice; the

sum must add up to the number two or to the number twelve. If this is not achieved, the

investigator incorrectly identified the owner of the evidence and sent the wrong person to jail. If

the player rolls a two or a twelve, then the investigator has cracked the case and found the true

criminal, saving the citizens and earning a key to the city. The cost to play is one dollar and if the

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investigator was able to put the criminal in jail, retrieving a key to the city, which is worth

approximately five dollars, is presented as the prize.

Figure 1. Board Set-Up

The figure above contains images of the carnival game itself. The first round is the first

picture. Six envelopes had been arranged, each containing a piece of paper, informing the player

of their fate. Envelopes labeled four through six contain fingerprints, or evidence that can be

used to identify the criminal. Envelopes one through three contain pieces of paper that inform the

player that they have lost the game and cannot continue to the next round. The second picture

displays the table surface of the game. The second round is the third picture. Once the

investigator has found the evidence, they roll the pair of dice and pick from the designated

envelope. Envelopes labeled two or twelve contains a mugshot of the criminal and the key to the

city, meaning they won and caught the criminal. Otherwise, the investigator receives a slip

saying they have imprisoned the wrong person and lost the game.

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Figure 2. Inside the Envelopes

The images above show all the possible papers that the player can receive placed in the

envelopes. The image on the top far left shows what are inside envelopes if you lose Round 1,

whilst the image in the top middle is the slip they will receive if they win Round 1. The image on

the far right exhibits what the investigator would receive if the sum of the die was anything other

than a 2 or 12, meaning they lose Round 2. Finally, the image on the bottom depicts what the

investigator would get for finding the evidence and correctly identifying the criminal, which

includes a key to the city.

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II. Theoretical Probability I

Table 1
Sample Space
Spinner Number
1 2 3 4 5 6
2 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
3 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
4 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
5 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
6 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
Sum of
7 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,7) (5,7) (6,7)
Dice
8 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,8) (5,8) (6,8)
9 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,9) (5,9) (6,9)
10 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,10) (5,10) (6,10)
11 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,11) (5,11) (6,11)
12 (1,X) (2,X) (3,X) (4,12) (5,12) (6,12)

Table 1 above displays the set of all possible outcomes in the experiment. The first

number in the set represents the number on the spinner obtained. The second number in the set

represents the sum of the two dice received after rolling. If the number received when spinning

the spinner is 1, 2 or 3, you cannot move on to the next round, which is why there is an ‘X’ as the

second number.

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Figure 3. Tree Diagram of All Possible Outcomes

Figure 3 represents a tree diagram of all the possible outcomes for this game. The

diagram displays the possible outcomes for each round and which outcomes are required to move

on to the next round. For the outcomes of 1, 2 and 3, “X”s are displayed as, if the investigator

obtains this outcome, they cannot move on to Round 2.

Table 2
Probability of Each Outcome
Spinner Number
1 2 3 4 5 6
2 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046
3 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0093 0.0093 0.0093
4 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0139 0.0139 0.0139
5 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0185 0.0185 0.0185
6 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0231 0.0231 0.0231
Sum of
7 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0278 0.0278 0.0278
Dice
8 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0231 0.0231 0.0231
9 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0185 0.0185 0.0185
10 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0139 0.0139 0.0139
11 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0093 0.0093 0.0093
12 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046

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The table above displays the theoretical probability of getting each individual outcome in

the game.

Each outcome in Round 1 has an equal probability of being acquired, which is ⅙ or

approximately 0.1667. This is because each section of the spinner is divided equally into six

sections, causing there to be an equal chance. The columns with the spinner numbers of 1,2, and

3 stayed as 0.1667 as the player cannot move on to the next round. The same cannot be said

about Round 2, as each outcome is more or less likely to occur. Refer to Appendix B for these

probabilities. Depending on the certain sum of the dice, that probability, ​P(D)​, was multiplied by

the probability of getting a certain number on the spinner, ​P(S),​ to get the probability above or

P(O).​ This can be represented by the equation below. Refer to Appendix C for a sample

calculation.

P (O) = P (S) * P (D)

The probability of winning this carnival game can be represented by the equation below.

This equation is similar to the equation above, where ​P(S)​ represents the probability of getting a

winning outcome on the spinner, and ​P(D)​ represents the probability of of getting a winning

outcome with the sum of the pair of dice. However ​P(O),​ the probability of an outcome,​ ​was

changed to ​P(W)​, the probability of winning.

P (W ) = P (S) * P (D)

P (W ) = P (S) * P (D)

3 2
P (W ) = 6 * 36

1
P (W ) = 36

Figure 4. Probability of Winning Murder Mystery

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Figure 4 above shows the probability of winning this carnival game. The probability of

getting a winning outcome on the spinner is 3/6, as there is 3 ways out of the possible 6 to move

on to the next round. The probability of getting a winning outcome on the pair dice is 2/36, as

there is a total of 2 ways (getting a sum of 2 or getting a sum of 12) out of the possible 36 to win

the key to the city. These probabilities would be multiplied together to receive the probability of

winning, or 1/36, which approximates to 0.0278 or 3%. To find the probability of losing, first it

should be known that winning and losing are complementary events. Since we know the

probability of winning, the probability of losing would be the probability of winning subtracted

from 1. This would entail that the probability of losing, or ​P(L),​ equals 35/36, which

approximates to 0.9722.

III. Theoretical Probability II

Table 3
Expected Value
Winning Losing

Money +4 -1

Probability 0.0278 0.9722

Expected Value 0.11 -0.97

The table above displays how the expected value was found. The values above are from

the players point of view. As the investigator has to pay one dollar to participate in the game,

they would only be winning four dollars. The probabilities were acquired from Figure 4. These

values were multiplied together vertically to receive the bottom row, which were then added, to

receive the expected value of -$0.86. This signifies that the player is expected to lose $0.86 in the

long run.

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The tables above display the probability distribution of every outcome in this game. It

should be noted that this chart should be together, but was split up to maximize space. All the

probabilities add up to 0.9999 or approximately 1, proving that this chart is correct. Probabilities

were found by utilizing the method used in Table 2.

IV. Relative Frequency

Table 8
First Simulation
Money
Trial Spinner Dice Win?
Lost/Gained

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1 3 X No -1
2 4 11 No -1
3 5 5 No -1
4 4 7 No -1
5 2 X No -1
6 3 X No -1
7 1 X No -1
8 3 X No -1
9 4 10 No -1
10 4 8 No -1
11 6 5 No -1
12 4 7 No -1
13 4 6 No -1
14 3 X No -1
15 5 12 Yes +4
16 6 10 No -1
17 5 12 Yes +4
18 1 X No -1
19 5 11 No -1
20 1 X No -1
21 6 9 No -1
22 5 3 No -1
23 4 10 No -1
24 3 X No -1
25 5 6 No -1
Table 8
First Simulation (Continued)
Money
Trial Spinner Dice Win?
Lost/Gained
26 1 X No -1

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27 3 X No -1
28 2 X No -1
29 3 X No -1
30 3 X No -1
31 1 X No -1
32 4 5 No -1
33 1 X No -1
34 3 X No -1
35 1 X No -1
36 3 X No -1
37 5 7 No -1
38 5 8 No -1
39 6 3 No -1
40 3 X No -1
41 4 7 No -1
42 4 11 No -1
43 6 7 No -1
44 5 7 No -1
45 4 7 No -1
46 4 9 No -1
47 6 6 No -1
48 6 10 No -1
49 3 X No -1
50 4 9 No -1

Table 8 above displays the data collected when the game was physically played.

Calculations for money gained/lost was fairly easy as the player lost one dollar if they did not

win and gained four dollars if they won. The average money lost from this simulation can be

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found by adding all of the amount gained/lost and then dividing that sum by the amount of trials,

in this case 50. This is shown in Figure 5.

48(−1)+2(4)
Average = 50

4
Average = − 5
= − 0.80

Figure 5. Average of Simulation One

Figure 5 displays the average calculated for the first simulation. The average money lost

by the investigator was found to be 80¢ per trial.

This fairly high amount of money lost is close to the relative frequency of losing, which

is approximately 96% of the time. The relative frequency of winning, in turn, was 4%, which is

higher than the theoretical probability of approximately 2.7778%. Although the relative

frequency was in fact higher, there was not much of a difference between the percentages.

Simulation 2​:

To produce 100 trials ran by a random number generator, the TI-Nspire software had

manifested itself to being an extremely helpful resource. To simulate these trials, a new

spreadsheet was created. Two columns had been labeled “round one” and “round two”. To

determine the numbers generated for Round 1, the command “randint(1,6,100)” had been

entered. The beginning two numbers, the one and six, informs the software that the numbers

should be produced randomly within one and six, inclusive. The one hundred notifies the

software to only produce one hundred trials. To determine the numbers generated for Round 2,

the same command had been entered except the numbers had been altered. The range entered

was two through twelve but the number of trials had stayed consistent. This data was then

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transferred onto a Google Spreadsheet and analyzed further. The results of this trial can be found

in Appendix A.

Out of the hundred trials that had been simulated, only one trial had met the requirements

and won the game. This was Trial 10, as shown in Appendix A. This data is used to assist in

calculating the relative frequency for this simulation. The relative frequency of winners is 1/100,

or 1%. This means that from the experiment conducted, only 1% of the trials had won the game,

in comparison to the theoretical probability which suggested that approximately 1/36, or

2.7778%, would win. The relative frequency for losing was 99/100, or 99%. This means that

from the experiment conducted, 99% of the trials had failed to meet the requirements for

winning.

Running 100 trials does not come without a cost. The game costs $1 to play and includes

a prize worth approximately $5. The average money lost by the person playing the game can be

found by finding the sum of all of the numbers and dividing it by 100. Using the equation in

Figure 5, it was determined that the investigator/player lost an average of 95¢ per game.

Simulation 3​:

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Figure 6. Code for Simulating 500 trials

Figure 6 above displays the code written to simulate 500 trials of the game invented. The

game is first set under a “while” loop that keeps the game running for a determined amount of

times, in this case 500. Contained within this while loop, is the code for the spinner and dice

probabilities. First, the game detects if the spinner value falls within a 3/6 margin. If it does, it

sets a keyword “gameDecider” to 1. If the code detects that the gameDecider value is 1, it allows

for the continuation of the game and checks if the dice probabilities fall within a 2/36 margin. If

it does, the program adds a number to the “timesWon” variable and recycles through the code, if

it does not fall within the correct margin, the trial simply ends and recycles. At the bottom of the

code is some fairly simple calculations made to display the number of winners, relative winning

frequency, and expected value of the 500 generated games. It should be noted that the reason the

code detects “if(spinner<4)” is because there are 3/6 numbers less than 4, and in the game

description the chosen winning numbers of 4, 5, and 6 also have a 3/6 probability of occuring. It

should also be noted that instead of simulating 2 separate dice and summing them for each trial,

it was found to be easier to simply represent the chances of getting a dice sum of 2 or 12 as

“2/36”. This code was written on the website CodeSkulptor using the Python coding language.

The link to the code can be found ​here​. See Appendix A for a sample of 500 randomly generated

trials. Shown in the code, the average money the player lost was 83¢.

While the simulations had contained the same general ideas, the outcomes were not

exactly the same. The first simulation had the highest relative frequency of winning, which was

approximately 4% while the second stimulation had the lowest relative frequency of about 1%.

Both however strayed further from the theoretical probability than the final trial, who’s relative

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frequency was approximately 3.4%. The relative frequencies were reasonably similar, but the

average amount of money lost by the players had slight variations. While the expected value was

a loss of 86¢, the second simulation did not follow that reasoning. The average amount of money

lost per trial was approximately 95¢ during that simulation, displaying an even smaller profit

which results from the 9¢ difference. The second stimulation was the only simulation out of the

three that had fairly assorted results.

V. Summary

This game is simple yet exciting. It’s fresh and thrilling concept as well as intracy of

construction invites everyone to become a private investigator. The directions are easy to follow

and requires no skill at all. Additionally, with the probability of the player winning being quite

small, and the expected value showing the player will lose money in the long run, a large amount

of money can be raised towards the fundraiser. This game is very straight forward when it comes

to winning or losing. The theoretical probability of winning is 1/36, with a expected value of

-86¢ per trial for the player. Despite this low chance of winning, however, the murderously

charming design and internal drive of wanting to catch that rapscallious criminal are sure to keep

players coming back and back again.

When it came to partner participation, the work was split relatively evenly. Each partner

had contributed to the building of the actual game. There had been two occasions in which the

team had met to discuss ideas, work on building the board, and eventually play the game 50

times. As for the paper, Tazkira had done most of the math. Tia had ran and typed the second

stimulation of one hundred trials as well as creating a table for the sample space, assisting in the

writing of the introduction, and formatting the majority of the tables, figures, and appendices.

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As well as working on the building of the game, Luke had also written the code for the third

simulation, as seen in Figure 6, and typed the corresponding information that went with that

simulation. Luke had also contributed in the calculations of the theoretical probability and

expected values and the writing of the final summary.

While the tasks were not divided beforehand, not one partner did too little or too much.

There was always someone doing something and not one person had been slacking off. There

were no problems between the partners in the group either and communication was not a

problem, for the members were constantly updating the others if something had been altered or if

there was a difficulty in any of the tasks. Each partner had an equal contribution to the

construction of both the paper and the game.

Appendix A: Simulation Data

Table 1
Simulation 2 Data
Amount Amount
Trial Round Round of Money Trial Round Round of Money
Number One Two Lost/Gain Number One Two Lost/Gain
ed ($) ed ($)
1 2 X -1 51 6 9 -1
2 1 X -1 52 1 X -1
3 1 X -1 53 6 5 -1
4 1 X -1 54 6 6 -1
5 4 6 -1 55 2 X -1
6 2 X -1 56 1 X -1
7 1 X -1 57 4 3 -1
8 3 X -1 58 3 X -1
9 2 X -1 59 2 X -1

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10 6 12 4 60 2 X -1
11 4 11 -1 61 5 4 -1
12 2 X -1 62 2 X -1
13 5 3 -1 63 3 X -1
14 2 X -1 64 6 3 -1
15 6 10 -1 65 1 X -1
16 5 6 -1 66 2 X -1
17 1 X -1 67 5 6 -1
18 6 6 -1 68 1 X -1
19 3 X -1 69 3 X -1
20 2 X -1 70 1 X -1
21 5 9 -1 71 6 10 -1
22 1 X -1 72 5 6 -1
23 1 X -1 73 2 X -1
24 6 3 -1 74 3 X -1
25 1 X -1 75 5 5 -1
26 1 X -1 76 1 X -1
27 5 3 -1 77 4 9 -1
Table 1
Simulation Two Data (Continued)
Amount Amount
Trial Round Round of Money Trial Round Round of Money
Number One Two Lost/Gain Number One Two Lost/Gain
ed ($) ed ($)
28 5 3 -1 78 1 X -1
29 6 6 -1 79 2 X -1
30 5 9 -1 80 4 4 -1
31 6 8 -1 81 6 10 -1
32 4 6 -1 82 4 5 -1
33 1 X -1 83 1 X -1
34 6 6 -1 84 3 X -1
35 4 4 -1 85 3 X -1
36 4 8 -1 86 2 X -1

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37 5 8 -1 87 1 X -1
38 5 4 -1 88 6 9 -1
39 6 9 -1 89 6 6 -1
40 5 6 -1 90 4 6 -1
41 6 7 -1 91 4 7 -1
42 1 X -1 92 5 7 -1
43 3 X -1 93 3 X -1
44 6 6 -1 94 4 10 -1
45 4 7 -1 95 4 7 -1
46 3 X -1 96 1 X -1
47 2 X -1 97 6 11 -1
48 6 5 -1 98 2 X -1
49 4 7 -1 99 1 X -1
50 5 9 -1 100 1 X -1

Table 1 above displays the numbers simulated by a random number simulator. Each

pairing represents one trial and there are one hundred recorded trials. To the left of the pairings

are the corresponding trial numbers.

Simulation Three Data​:

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Figure 1. 500 Simulated Trials

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Figure 1 displays 500 simulated trials of the game. The trial number is displayed,

followed by the spinner value obtained for that trial, followed by the dice roll probability

obtained, then, an output is displayed on whether or not the trial is a winning trial. At the bottom

of the output screen, 3 calculations for the 500 trials are made: number of winners, relative

frequency of winning, and the average amount of money lost per trial. In this case, the number of

winners were 17, with a relative winning frequency of 0.034, and an average amount of money

lost per trial of -88​¢.

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Appendix B: Sum Chart

Table 1
Probabilities of Each Sum
Probability of Receiving Each Dice Sum
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability
(Decimals) 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.03
Probability
(Fractions) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

The table above shows the probabilities of receiving each of the sums. The probabilities

are recorded in both decimal and fraction form, as labeled above. These probabilities are not

similar to each other in comparison to the spinner because there are more combinations to get a

sum such as 6 than there is with a sum of 2. This can assist in understanding why winning the

game is in fact fairly difficult as the only winning outcomes are 2 and 12, the two sums that are

of the least chance to acquire.

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Appendix C: Sample Calculations

To find the probability of receiving a certain outcome, ​P(O),​ the probability of receiving

a certain number on the spinner, ​P(S)​, must be multiplied with the probability of receiving a

certain sum after rolling two die, ​P(D)​.

P (O) = P (S) * P (D)

This equation can be used to calculate the probability of any given outcome but is widely

used to calculate the probability of winning or losing.

P (O) = P (S) * P (D)

P (O) = P (4) * P (5)

P (O) = 0.1667 * 0.1111

P (O) = 0.0185

Figure 1. Sample Probability Calculation

The formula identified above had been use to calculate the probability of spinning a four

and rolling the die to get a sum of five. While in the game this pairing of numbers will not

provide a win, this shows that this equation can be used to calculate every possible outcome.

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