Question No 1

Differentiate between series and parallel systems of reliability by giving at least 1 real life
example of each.

System Reliability:
Reliability of a product is defined as the probability that the product will not fail throughout a prescribed
operating period. Most products are made up of a number of components .The reliability of each
component and the configuration of the system consisting of these components determines the system
reliability (i.e., the reliability of the product).

System Forms:
The components may be in series system performs satisfactorily if all components are fully functional
For example, Christmas lights . Parallel system performs if any one component remains operational . For
example an airplane with four engines, or a laptop with a power source and a battery combination of
series and parallel.

Series System:
If the components are in series, system performs satisfactorily if all components are fully functional • If
there are n components in series, where the reliability of the i-th component is denoted by ri , the
system reliability is

Rs T (r1) (r2)….(rn)

Example
A module of a satellite monitoring system has 500 components in series. The reliability of each
component is 0.999. Find the reliability of the module. If the number of components is reduced
to 200, what is the reliability?

Parallel System:
In a simple parallel system, at least one of the units must succeed for the system to succeed.
Units in parallel are also referred to as redundant units. Redundancy is a very important aspect of
system design and reliability in that adding redundancy is one of several methods of improving
system reliability. It is widely used in the aerospace industry and generally used in mission
critical systems. Other example applications include the RAID computer hard drive systems,
brake systems and support cables in bridges.
If the components are in parallel, system performs if any one component remains operational • If
there are n components in parallel, where the reliability of the i-th component.

Example:
Consider a system consisting of three subsystems arranged reliability-wise in parallel. Subsystem
1 has a reliability of 99.5%, Subsystem 2 has a reliability of 98.7% and Subsystem 3 has a
reliability of 97.3% for a mission of 100 hours. What is the overall reliability of the system for a
100-hour mission?

Since the reliabilities of the subsystems are specified for 100 hours, the reliability of the system
for a 100-hour mission is:

Question No 2 (a)
Write the advantages of drawing the probability plots?

Advantages of Probability Plots:

A plot has many advantages which are as follows:

a) It is fast and simple to use. In contrast, numerical methods may be tedious to compute
and may require analytic know-how or an expensive statistical consultant. Moreover, the
added accuracy of numerical methods over plots often does not warrant the effort.
b) It presents the data in an easy-to-grasp form. This helps one draw conclusions from data
and also to present data to others.
c) It helps one assess how well a given theoretical distribution fits the data.
d) It applies to both complete and censored data.
e) It lets one assess the assumptions of analytic methods applied to the data.
f) The maximum correlation value provides a method for comparing across distributions as
well as identifying the best value of the shape parameter for a given distribution.
g) It is an easy technique to implement for a wide variety of distribution with a single shape
parameter. The basic requirement is to be able to compute the percent point function,
which is needed in the computation of the probability plot.
 Question no: 2(b)
Differentiate between different kinds Probability Plot?

Kinds of Probability Plots:

There are following kinds of probability plots:
1) Normal probability plot
2) Exponential probability plot
3) Weibull probability plot
4) Log-normal probability plot

Normal probability plot:

When you have a set of data that you think might have a normal distribution (i.e. a bell curve), a
graph of your data can help you decide whether or not your data is normal. Making
a histogram of your data can help you decide whether or not a set of data is normal, but there is a
more specialized type of plot you can create, called a normal probability plot. A normal
probability plot graphs z-scores (normal scores) against your data set.

A straight, diagonal line means that you have normally distributed data. If the line is skewed to
the left or right, it means that you do not have normally distributed data.

With a normal probability plot, it can be easier to see individual data items that don’t quite fit a
normal distribution. In the image below, the upper right data item is clearly out of line with the
rest of the data, meaning that it doesn’t fit with a normal distribution.

Exponential Probability Plot:

The mean of an exponential distribution is the 63rd percentile. For example.the graphical
estimate of the mean (63rd percentile) from Figure 2.1 is 14 minutes. The failure rate of an
exponential distribution is the reciprocal of the mean. For example, this estimate from Figure 2.1
is 1/14=0.07 failures per minute. The plotted points do not follow a straight line very well. So the
exponential fit is crude. The sample is small (19 observations). so it reveals only large departures
from an exponential distribution. A more sensitive evaluation of an exponential fit is obtained .
A Weibull plot generally shows more than an than an exponential plot, particularly in the lower
tail of the distribution, which is usually of greatest interest.

Weibull Probability Plot:

The Weibull plot is a graphical technique for determining if a data set comes from a population
that would logically be fit by a 2-parameter. Weibull distribution (the location is assumed to be
zero)

The Weibull plot has special scales that are designed so that if the data do in fact follow a
Weibull distribution, the points will be linear(or nearly linear). The least squares fit of this line
yields estimates for the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution (the location is
assumed to be zero).

Specifically, the shape parameter is the reciprocal of the slope of the fitted line and the scale
parameter is the exponent of the intercept of the fitted line

.
Log-normal Probability Plot:
Lognormal and normal probability paper have the same cumulative probability scale. However,
lognormal paper has a log data scale, whereas normal paper has a linear one. Thus a normal
probability plot of the logs of lognormal data has the same appearance as a log normal plot of the
original data. In ths way, one can make a lognormal plot when lognormal paper is not available.
Parameter µ:
The parameter p is the log of the median (50th percentile). From Figure 6.1, the estimate of
median insulation life at 180°C is 11,500 hours, well below the desired 20,000 hours. The
estimate of p is log( 1 1,500) =4.061. One usually uses the median, a typical life, rather than p.

Parameter σ:
The slope of the fitted line in a lognormal plot corresponds to the log standard deviation u.
Estimating the log mean, estimate the 16th percentile. The estimate of (I equals the difference
between the p estimate and the log of the 16th percentile. From Figure 6.1, the estimate of the
16th percentile at 180°C is 9000 hours. The estimate of u is 4.061 - log(9000)=0.11. This small
value indicates that the distribution is close to normal; so the insulation failure rate increases
with age (wear-out behavior).
 ASSIGNMENT NO: 3
SYEDA ANUM BATOOL NAQVI
BSC STATISTICS (SEMESTER 6)
DR.KALSOOM AKHTAR
KINNAIRD COLLEGE FOR WOMEN
LAHORE