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01 - Kenneth D Rose, European Road Fuel Demand and Quality
01 - Kenneth D Rose, European Road Fuel Demand and Quality
and Quality
Kenneth D Rose
First Fuel Additives Symposium, BASF
Ludwigshafen, Germany
5th June 2008
Reproduction permitted
with due acknowledgement
CONCAWE: Research in Diverse Areas
CONservation
CON of
Clean The Oil Companies’ European association for health,
safety and environment in refining and distribution
(founded in 1963)
Air and
Water in
Europe
1.0
2,000
1,000 0.5
0 0.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Asia Pacific Middle East North America
Latin America Greater Europe FSU
Sub-Saharan Africa Annual Grow th Rate (%)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2005 Base Baseline Alternative ACT Map ACT Low TECH Plus
Case 2030 (WEO Scenario 2050 Efficiency 2050
2005) 2030 (WEO 2050
2005)
180
160
140
120
Mt/a 100
80
60
40
20
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5 MD/(G+N)
MD/(G+N)
1.0
1.0
2020
2020
0.5
0.5 Diesel/Gasoline
Diesel/Gasoline
2005
2005
0.0
0.0
North
North Latin
Latin Asia
Asia Middle
Middle Russia
Russia Med
Med Central North
Central NorthWest
West Greater
Greater
America
America America
America Pacific
Pacific East
East and
and Europe
Europe Europe
Europe
Eastern
Eastern
Source: Wood
Source: Wood McKenzie
Mackenzie Europe
Europe
80
60 Greater Europe
40 Surplus
Balances (Mt/a)
20
0
-20
-40
Deficit
-60
-80
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel Gasoil
20% renewables
20% reduction of 20% reduction of primary
in total energy mix
GHG emissions (vs. 1990) energy consumption
10% (energy) biofuels
in road fuels
By 2020
Fuel Quality
Air Quality
(Local Pollution)
CO, HC, NOx, O3 , Noise
and
Alternative Engine
Systems
Energy Alternative Fuels
• Bio-fuels
• Advanced Combustion
Saving + Ethanol, RME, BTL
+ HCCI, CAI Global Pollution • Compressed Gases
• Battery Technology + LPG, CNG, DME, H2
CO2 , CH4 , N2 O …
+ H2 Fuel Cell • Gas-to-Liquids
+ Fischer-Tropsch
• Hybrid Powertrains
18%
14%
4%
0%
2005 2010 2015 2020
30
Ethanol conventional 28 Mt/a Ethanol
25 Ethanol adv domestic
Ethanol adv imports
FAME
20
BTL domestic
BTL imports
Mt/a
15
Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 11 Mt/a BTL
10
0
Conventional Maximum 10% biofuels 10% LC CO2
domestic biofuels domestic biofuels target with EtOH reduction
imports
Source CONCAWE, adapted from JEC WTW study
70%
Ethanol in gasoline
60%
FAME in diesel
BTL in diesel
50%
40%
% v/v
30%
Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5
20%
10%
0%
Conventional Maximum 10% biofuels 10% LC CO2
domestic domestic target with EtOH reduction
biofuels biofuels imports
Programme Plan:
First Step: Develop a consensus supply picture of biofuel types
and availability
Second Step: What are the biofuel performance issues with the
existing and near-term fleet?
Third Step: What can the future Light-duty and Heavy-duty fleet
handle?
Support CEN to adapt fuel specifications to higher biofuel levels
Compatibility Enhancers
1. Antioxidants: Ensure long-term stability of bio-components and fuels
2. Corrosion Inhibitors: Protect fuel system parts from aggressive components
and oxidation products
3. Cold Flow Improvers: Ensure low temperature performance with more
diverse fuel compositions
4. Elastomer aids(?): Protect sensitive elastomers in older fleet
5. Aftertreatment Aids: Enhance performance of exhaust after-treatment
Marketing Enhancers
1. Specialty additives: Odorants, markers, etc.
2. Plus most of the above
European Road Fuel Demand and Quality
Reproduction permitted
Kenneth D Rose (CONCAWE)
27
with due acknowledgement
European Road Fuel Demand and Quality
“Well, we just can’t stand around here all day doing nothing.
People will think we are ordinary workmen.”
Spike Milligan
British Comedian