Furnace Event Tree

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE Outcome Prob.
System shutdown and isolated (99% Short Duration Jet Fire, Fire Detection
0.99 Availability Target) 1 1 1 1 # and Isolation Success 2.27E-08
0.9942 Fire Detection 0.99 0.99 0 0 # 0.00E+00

Immediate ignition of gas release. Jet fire. (OGP Ignition Probabilities

0.001 434-6) Gas mixture is below auto-ignition temperature 0.9942 0.99422
Loss of containment
2.31E-05 (Derived from fault tree) 0.9942
0.9942
Fire Detection fail
0.0058 (OREDA 2009 pp 442)
0.99 0 0 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Jet Fire, Fire Detection Success and
0.01 System shutdown & isolation system fail 1 1 1 # Isolation Fail 2.30E-10
0 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Jet Fire, Fire Detection Failure, No
1 1 1 1 1 # Isolation 1.34E-10
# 0.00E+00

Explosion of Vapor Cloud (AlChE CCPS Guidelines for Determininig the Small VCE, Gas Detection and Isolation
0.3 Probability of Ignition of a Released Flammable Mass). Congested area # Success 6.11E-09

Delayed ignition of Vapor cloud (OGP Ignition Probabilities 434-6). Minor

0.0009 release rate (0.5kg/s) 0 0 # 0.00E+00
0 0 # 0.00E+00
0 # 0.00E+00
System shutdown and isolated (99% Small VC Flash Fire, Gas Detection and
0.99 Availability Target) 0.0009 0.0009 0.7 Flash Fire of Vapour Cloud # Isolation Success 1.43E-08
0.99 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Short Duration Toxic Dispersion, Gas
0.9907 Gas Detection 0.99 0.99 0.9991 Gas mixture Toxic dispersion 1 1 # detection and Isolation Success 2.26E-05
0.9907 0.99 0 # 0.00E+00
0.9907 0.99 # 0.00E+00
0.999 Gas mixture Toxic dispersion 0.9907 0.99071 0.99 0 0 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00
0.9907 0.99 # 0.00E+00

Explosion of Vapor Cloud (AlChE CCPS Guidelines for Determininig the VCE, Gas Detection Succession, Isolation
0.9907 0.99 0.3 Probability of Ignition of a Released Flammable Mass). Congested area # Fail 6.17E-11
0.9907 0.99 0 # 0.00E+00

Delayed ignition of Vapor cloud (OGP Ignition Probabilities 434-6). Minor

0.9907 0.99 0.0009 release rate (0.5kg/s) 0 0 # 0.00E+00
VC Flash Fire, Gas Detection Success,
0.9907 0.01 System shutdown & isolation system fail 0.0009 0.0009 0.7 Flash Fire of Vapour Cloud # Isolation Fail 1.44E-10
0.9907 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Toxic Dispersion, Gas detection Success,
0.9907 0.9991 Gas mixture Toxic dispersion 1 1 # Isolation Fail 2.28E-07
0.9907 0 # 0.00E+00
Explosion of Vapor Cloud (AlChE CCPS Guidelines for Determininig the VCE, Gas Detection Failure and No
0.9907 0.3 Probability of Ignition of a Released Flammable Mass). Congested area 1 1 # Isolation 5.79E-11
Delayed ignition of Vapor cloud (OGP
Ignition Probabilities 434-6). Minor
0.9907 9E-04 release rate (0.5kg/s) 0.3 0.3 0 # 0.00E+00

Gas detection fail VC Flash Fire, Gas Detection Failure and

0.0093 (OREDA 2009 pp 444) 9E-04 0.0009 0.7 Flash fire of vapour cloud 1 1 # No Isolation 1.35E-10
9E-04 0 # 0.00E+00
Toxic Dispersion, Gas detection fail and
0.999 Gas mixture Toxic dispersion 1 1 1 # No Isolation 2.14E-07

0 2.31E-05

ExxonMobil Chemical Company

Furnace event tree Daniel 5 Event Tree Builder ver 2 11/15/2019