The Causes and Effects of Climate change

Volcanoes can have both a cooling and warming effect on the planet’s climate
When volcanoes erupt, they emit a mixture of gases and particles into the air. Some of them, such as ash and 1tyrofo dioxide,
have a cooling effect, because they (or the substances they cause) reflect sunlight away from the earth. Others, such as CO2,
cause warming by adding to the the greenhouse effect.
The cooling influence is particularly marked in the case of large eruptions able to blast sun-blocking particles all the way up to the
stratosphere – such as Mount Pinatubo in 1991, which caused a significant dip in global temperatures in the following year or two.
It’s difficult to know for sure that the cooling observed after a particular eruption is definitely the result of that eruption, but
examining the average global temperature change after multiple eruptions proves a strong link.
As for greenhouse gases, underwater and land-based volcanoes are estimated to release, in total, around 100–300 million tonnes
of CO2 each year, according to the British Geological Survey and the US Geological Survey. That’s a large quantity, but only
around 1% of the amount that humans release from burning fossil fuel alone.
As a rule, the cooling influence of an individual volcano will dominate for the period immediately after the eruption but the warming
impact will last much longer. So the significance of each depends on the timeframe being considered. A very large volcano in 2011
may significantly reduce temperatures in 2012 but slightly warm them in 2100.
It has sometimes been suggested by those who seek to disprove human impact on the climate that volcanoes release more CO2
than human activity. This is simply incorrect. As the British Geological Survey puts it
“The contribution to the present day atmospheric CO2 loading from volcanic emissions is … relatively insignificant.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/feb/09/volcanoes-climate

The ocean plays a fundamental role in shaping the climate zones we see on land. Even areas hundreds of miles away from any
coastline are still largely influenced by the global ocean system.
The world’s ocean is crucial to heating the planet. While land areas and the atmosphere absorb some sunlight, the majority of the
sun’s radiation is absorbed by the ocean. Particularly in the tropical waters around the equator, the ocean acts a as massive, heat-
retaining solar panel. Earth’s atmosphere also plays a part in this process, helping to retain heat that would otherwise quickly
radiate into space after sunset.
The ocean doesn’t just store solar radiation; it also helps to distribute heat around the globe. When water molecules are heated,
they exchange freely with the air in a process called evaporation. Ocean water is constantly evaporating, increasing the
temperature and humidity of the surrounding air to form rain and storms that are then carried by trade winds, often vast distances.
In fact, almost all rain that falls on land starts off in the ocean. The tropics are particularly rainy because heat absorption, and thus
ocean evaporation, is highest in this area.
Outside of Earth’s equatorial areas, weather patterns are driven largely by ocean currents. Currents are movements of ocean water
in a continuous flow, created largely by surface winds but also partly by temperature and salinity gradients, Earth’s rotation, and
tides (the gravitational effects of the sun and moon). Major current systems typically flow clockwise in the northern hemisphere and
counterclockwise in the southern hemisphere, in circular patterns that often trace the coastlines.
Ocean currents act much like a conveyer belt, transporting warm water and precipitation from the equator toward the poles and
cold water from the poles back to the tropics. Thus, currents regulate global climate, helping to counteract the uneven distribution
of solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface. Without currents, regional temperatures would be more extreme—super hot at the
equator and frigid toward the poles—and much less of Earth’s land would be habitable.
http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/climate.html

A new study out of Denmark found that fluctuations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun, called Milankovitch cycles, have been
causing periods of dramatic, short-term global warming for at least 1.4 billion years.
Fluctuations in Earth’s orbit are even behind the long-term warming of today’s climate, conclude researchers.
While they acknowledged that greenhouse gases are the immediate dominating force changing Earth’s climate today, they noted
that on a larger scale the way our planet revolves around the sun is the ultimate control knob over the climate.
“This study helps us understand how past climate changes have affected Earth geologically and biologically,” Donald Canfield, the
study’s main author and a professor at Nordic Center for Earth Evolution, University of Southern Denmark, said in a statement.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/03/11/study-earths-orbit-causes-global-warming-today-and-climate-change-1-4-billion-years-ago/

Solar Variability: Striking a Balance with Climate Change

Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterThe sun has powered almost everything on Earth since life began, including its climate.
The sun also delivers an annual and seasonal impact, changing the character of each hemisphere as Earth’s orientation shifts
through the year. Since the Industrial Revolution, however, new forces have begun to exert significant influence on Earth’s climate.

“For the last 20 to 30 years, we believe greenhouse gases have been the dominant influence on recent climate change,” said
Robert Cahalan, climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

For the past three decades NASA scientists have investigated the unique relationship between the sun and Earth. Using space-
based tools, like the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE), they have studied how much solar energy illuminates
Earth, and explored what happens to that energy once it penetrates the atmosphere. The amount of energy that reaches Earth’s
outer atmosphere is called the total solar irradiance. Total solar irradiance is variable over many different timescales, ranging from
seconds to centuries due to changes in solar activity.

The sun goes through roughly an 11-year cycle of activity, from stormy to quiet and back again. Solar activity often occurs near
sunspots, dark regions on the sun caused by concentrated magnetic fields. The solar irradiance measurement is much higher
during solar maximum, when sunspot cycle and solar activity is high, versus solar minimum, when the sun is quiet and there are
usually no sunspots.
The sun radiates huge amounts of electromagnetic energy in all directions. Earth is only one small recipient of the sun’s energy;
the sun’s rays extend far out into the solar system, illuminating all the other planets. Credit: NASA
> Larger image”The fluctuations in the solar cycle impacts Earth’s global temperature by about 0.1 degree Celsius, slightly hotter
during solar maximum and cooler during solar minimum,” said Thomas Woods, solar scientist at the University of Colorado in
Boulder. “The sun is currently at its minimum, and the next solar maximum is expected in 2012.”

Using SORCE, scientists have learned that about 1,361 watts per square meter of solar energy reaches Earth’s outermost
atmosphere during the sun’s quietest period. But when the sun is active, 1.3 watts per square meter (0.1 percent) more energy
reaches Earth. “This TSI measurement is very important to climate models that are trying to assess Earth-based forces on climate
change,” said Cahalan.

Over the past century, Earth’s average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit).
Solar heating accounts for about 0.15 C, or 25 percent, of this change, according to computer modeling results published by NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Studies researcher David Rind in 2004. Earth’s climate depends on the delicate balance between
incoming solar radiation, outgoing thermal radiation and the composition of Earth’s atmosphere. Even small changes in these
parameters can affect climate. Around 30 percent of the solar energy that strikes Earth is reflected back into space. Clouds,
atmospheric aerosols, snow, ice, sand, ocean surface and even rooftops play a role in deflecting the incoming rays. The remaining
70 percent of solar energy is absorbed by land, ocean, and atmosphere.

“Greenhouse gases block about 40 percent of outgoing thermal radiation that emanates from Earth,” Woods said. The resulting
imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation will likely cause Earth to heat up over the next century,
accelerating the melting polar ice caps, causing sea levels to rise and increasing the probability of more violent global weather
patterns.

Non-Human Influences on Climate Change

Before the Industrial Age, the sun and volcanic eruptions were the major influences on Earth’s climate change. Earth warmed and
cooled in cycles. Major cool periods were ice ages, with the most recent ending about 11,000 years ago.

“Right now, we are in between major ice ages, in a period that has been called the Holocene,” said Cahalan. “Over recent
decades, however, we have moved into a human-dominated climate that some have termed the Anthropocene. The major change
in Earth’s climate is now really dominated by human activity, which has never happened before.”

The sun is relatively calm compared to other stars. “We don’t know what the sun is going to do a hundred years from now,” said
Doug Rabin, a solar physicist at Goddard. “It could be considerably more active and therefore have more influence on Earth’s
climate.”

Or, it could be calmer, creating a cooler climate on Earth similar to what happened in the late 17th century. Almost no sunspots
were observed on the sun’s surface during the period from 1650 to 1715. This extended absence of solar activity may have been
partly responsible for the Little Ice Age in Europe and may reflect cyclic or irregular changes in the sun’s output over hundreds of
years. During this period, winters in Europe were longer and colder by about 1 C than they are today.

Since then, there seems to have been on average a slow increase in solar activity. Unless we find a way to reduce the amount of
greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, the solar influence is not expected
to dominate climate change. But the solar variations are expected to continue to modulate both warming and cooling trends at the
level of 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.18 to 0.26 Fahrenheit) over many years.
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solar_variability.html
Flipping the issue: agriculture contributes to climate change?
Agriculture is one of the main contributors to climate change, however it can also be harnessed to mitigate greenhouse gas
emissions.
Did you know that the burgers and rice you eat contribute to climate change?
Climate change is usually pictured as the bane of agriculture. Increased flooding, drought and stronger typhoons make agriculture
production harder for farmers than it already is. Because of climate change, farmers get lower yields and incomes, thus negatively
influencing market prices and burdening the consumers.
We should also look at the other side of the equation. Let us examine how agriculture and food production contribute to climate
change.
Greenhouse gases (GHGs), which trap heat inside the earth, are not inherently bad because they help keep the earth warm
enough for living beings to survive. What is dangerous is the excess GHG emissions generated by human activities. While most
people know GHGs are emitted from the use of fossil fuels and industrial production, some are unaware that agriculture is a major
contributor.
GHG emissions from agriculture
Countries are increasingly recognizing the contributions of agriculture to climate change. Of the 133 Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions of the 160 Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 103
target to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture.
The agriculture sector was the second largest emitter in 2011. It is estimated around 10-12% of total annual GHG emissions and
75% of global deforestation come from agriculture, mostly in developing countries. Southeast Asia (SEA) emits almost 315-627
million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) annually, with Indonesian agriculture as the largest contributor (84-247
MtCO2e).
In general, livestock contributes a large part of the agricultural emissions. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO), around 40% of agricultural emissions came from methane produced by livestock betwee 2001 and 2011, not
including emissions from manure (25% of agricultural emissions).
The use of synthetic fertilizers contributes 13% to agricultural emissions worldwide. Rice paddy fields emit methane through
decomposing organic matter in the fields and contribute 10% to agricultural emissions. Other agricultural activities, such as burning
vegetation biomass and cultivating organic soils, emit lower amounts of GHGs.
Lowering emissions from agriculture
Mitigation does not necessarily mean reducing agricultural production to lessen GHG emissions. In fact, food production should be
boosted to feed the ballooning global population, which is predicted to reach 9 billion in 2050. How do we ensure food security
without increasing GHG emissions?
One option is climate-smart agriculture (CSA). The three pillars of food security, climate change adaptation, and mitigation define
CSA, according to FAO. CSA contributes to food security by sustainably increasing yields of farmers, while promoting resilience of
communities.
The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) in SEA supports a number of projects
focused on lowering GHG emissions from agriculture. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), with Vietnam’s
National Institute of Agricultural Planning and Projection and the Institute of Agricultural Environment (IAE), is building support
systems for CSA initiatives through the ‘Landscape Approach to Climate Change Mitigation in Agriculture’ project. Researchers will
identify possible landscape developments and analyse whether mitigating measures could be adopted to increase resilience of
production systems.
A project led by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), ‘Assessing incentives for scaling up mitigation at different
stakeholder levels: ‘No-regret’ mitigation strategies in rice production’, will develop an innovative approach highlighting the co-
benefits of mitigation options. The alternate wetting and drying (AWD) technique, which reduces water use by 30% and methane
emissions from rice production by 50%, will be integrated into farming systems. This is in partnership with Vietnamese institutions
including Can Tho University, Cuu Long Rice Research Institute and IAE.
IRRI is also leading a project with the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) called ‘Mitigation strategies in paddy rice production:
Support for national partners in CCAC project’ on scaling out mitigation strategies, specifically AWD, in Vietnam, Bangladesh and
Colombia.
Mitigation and adaptation, hand in hand
Clearly, agriculture should not only be about climate change adaptation, but also mitigation of emissions. Adaptation is not enough,
for without mitigation, changes in climate will continue and may worsen if it remains business-as-usual.
According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Without additional efforts to reduce
GHG emissions beyond those in place today, emissions growth is expected to persist driven by growth in global population and
economic activities.”
Mitigation, although often overlooked, should never be forgotten in addressing climate change in the present and the future. IPCC
AR5 researchers also acknowledge that delays would mean greater difficulty in transitioning to activities with low emissions on the
long term, and fewer options that allow for maintaining temperatures below the threshold.
Now is the time to look for mitigation options. Agriculture is an important sector with a large potential for reducing emission levels
and building communities’ resilience. Let’s flip the issue and combine efforts to promote adaptation, mitigation and sustainability.
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/flipping-issue-agriculture-contributes-climate-change#.WRSkV1WGPIU