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Abstract Floodrisk MC
Abstract Floodrisk MC
Scheldt estuary
Joris BLANCKAERT(1) (contact author), Lieve AUDOORN(2), Dirk BULCKAEN(1), Wim DAUWE(3)
(1) International Marine and Dredging Consultants (IMDC), Wilrijkstraat 37, B-2140 Antwerp, jbl.imdc@technum.be,
www.imdc.be
(2) University of Ghent, Coupure Links 653, B-9000 Ghent
(3) AWZ, Flemish Community, Copernicuslaan 1 box 13, B-2000 Antwerp
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S0
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650
Q
600
550
1 10 100 1000 10000
q
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S0
(
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return period [years]
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tS
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Q
tS
∆
Figure 3 : comparison of Monte Carlo storm samples
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∆
tSa
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with gauged HW
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∆
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4. RESULTS
Figure 1 : variables classification
Hydrodynamic simulation of all storm-event samples
results in an equal amount of flood maps of the
astronomic tide Ah(t) Scheldt-catchment, which enables to compute a flood-
normalized surge S0(t)
water level h(t)
damage probability distribution. At the time of
wind velocity v(t) writing this abstract the hydrodynamic computations
discharge q(t) are being processed. Results are to be expected within
AHW a couple of months.
5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
max
S0
The research in this project is funded by the Flemish
∆tS-AHW Community (Ministry of Public Works), as part of the
∆tS-Q
∆tS-v time cost-benefit analysis in the framework of the Sigma-
plan, a flood protecting scheme for the Flemish part
Figure 2 : graphical definition of variables of the Scheldt catchment.
The authors would like to thank Fernando Pereira,
and Steven Smets at IMDC for setting up the
Monte Carlo storm-event generator hydrodynamic model.
13 quasi random number sequences (100000 numbers
each) result through the probability distributions into 6. REFERENCES
13 sequences of hydrometeorological variables. Next
we multiply each S0-sample by its corresponding [1] Silvester R., 1974, Coastal Engineering 2, Elsevier
standard time profile sample, do the same with AHW Scientific Publishing Company
and its corresponding standard tidal curve sample, and
add up those to time series taking into account the
time lag ∆tS0-AHW, which ends (after denormalization
of S0) in a water level time series h(t). Analogously
calculations for the wind and the upstream run-off
lead to a complete sample set of boundary conditions
for hydrodynamic model computation.
In total 100000 extreme surge/wind/run-off storm-
event samples are designed for the hydrodynamic
Monte Carlo simulation.