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ABOUT US…
EDUWIZ MANAGEMENT EDUCATION is the only coaching institute in Mumbai which is entirely
dedicated to BMS FINANCE coaching only. We do not spread out onto other electives simply because we
want to build a strong brand in Management Education in Finance. This helps us infuse quality teaching into
students.
“Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day; show him how to catch fish, and you feed him for a lifetime”
This idea of teaching and learning helps us to instill the core values and concepts of education in our students.
Making the student life ready than exam ready has always been at the foremost in our teaching methodology.
Enabling the student understand, why does he need to study a subject and how is it going to help him for his
future, is a necessary parameter in our pedagogy. We not only coach our students, but also mentor them for
life skills, career development; thereby contributing to the overall wellbeing and holistic development of our
students. Taking this further we provide career counseling, extracurricular activities and placement assistance,
which fosters the confidence and success approach of our fellow pupils.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE
SR. NO TOPIC
NO.
0 SYLLABUS 3
2 INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES 9
5 PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 59
6 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 66
7 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 93
SYLLABUS
UNIT I : INTRODUCTION TO INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
Introduction to Investment Environment
Introduction, Investment Process, Criteria for Investment, Types of Investors, Investment V/s
Speculation V/s Gambling, Investment Avenues, Factors Influencing Selection of Investment
Alternatives
Capital Market in India
Introduction, Concepts of Investment Banks its Role and Functions, Stock Market Index, The
NASDAQ, SDL, NSDL, Benefits of Depository Settlement, Online Share Trading and its Advantages,
Concepts of Small cap, Large cap, Midcap and Penny stocks
Security Analysis:
Fundamental Analysis, Economic Analysis, Industry Analysis, Company Analysis, Technical Analysis
- Basic Principles of Technical Analysis., Uses of Charts: Line Chart, Bar Chart, Candlestick Chart,
Mathematical Indicators: Moving Averages, Oscillators.
INVESTMENT
Investment is the employment of funds with the aim of getting return on it. Investment means "the current
commitment of funds for a period of time in order to derive a future flow of funds that will compensate
investor for the time the funds are committed, for the expected rate of inflation and also for uncertainty
involved in the future flow of funds". Investors expect return on his investment which should compensate
them for the risk they take in forgoing current consumption of money for future consumption and for
inflation.
2) Financial Investment
This is an allocation of monetary resources to assets that are expected to yield some gain or return over a
given period of time. It means an exchange of financial claims such as shares and bonds, real estate, etc.
Financial investment involves contracts written on pieces of paper such as shares and debentures. People
invest their funds in shares, debentures, fixed deposits, National saving certificates, life insurance policies,
provident funds etc.
SPECULATION
"Speculation is an activity, quite contrary to its literal meaning, in which a person assumes high risks, often
without regard for the safety of his invested principal, to achieve large capital gains." The time span in
which the gain is sought to be made is usually very short.
(b) Risk
Risk is the chance of loss due to variability of returns on an investment. In case of every investment, there is
a chance of loss. Return is a precise statistical term and it is measurable. But the risk is not precise statistical
term. However, the risk can be quantified. The investment process should be considered in terms of both
risk and return.
(c) Time
Time is an important factor in investment. It offers several different courses of action. Time period depends
on the attitude of the investor who follows a 'buy and hold' Policy. As time moves on, analysts believe that
conditions may change and investors may revaluate expected return and risk for each investment.
(d) Liquidity
Liquidity is also important factor to be considered while making an investment. Liquidity refers to the
ability of an investment to be converted into cash as and when required. The investor wants his money back
any time. Therefore, the investment should provide liquidity to the investor.
The following points are considered for selecting suitable investment avenue:
INVESTMENT PROCESS
Any rational investor has to go through certain steps to make sound investments. These steps can be
summarised as below :
i) Review of Investment avenues/alternatives :
The first step in investment process is to take a look at available options for making investment, for e.g. A
small investor will have Post Office, Bank, Mutual funds as his options, he will not consider real estate as
his option, due to his limited availability of funds.
Investor has to consider the goal(s) he wants to achieve by making investment. Investment objectives would
include return on investment, safely of investment it may also include other goals such as need for
retirement benefit, need for purchasing own house etc. Investor also may have to face certain constrains like
lack of sufficient funds, irregular flow of income, high rates of tax, etc.
Every investor should review his Own objectives and constrains before choosing any investment alternative.
TYPES OF INVESTOR’S
All portfolio decisions are substantially affected by investors liking for risk. Common investors will have
three possible attitudes to undertake risky course of action (i) an aversion to risk (ii) a desire to take risk,
and (iii) an indifference to risk. The following example will clarify the risk attitude of the individual
investors.
2. Speculation
Speculation is an activity in which a person assumes high risk, often without regard for safely of invested
amount, to achieve large capital gains in short duration, it is indulged in on the basis of some privileged
information or as known in stock market based on some “tips‟.
3. Gambling
on Gambling involves taking high risk without demanding high compensation in
the form of increased return, gambling is indulged into not for returns but for mere reason of fun and
satisfying the habit of taking risk and indulging in some kind of adventure. Therefore, it is unplanned, non-
scientific, and without knowledge of the nature of risk.
Both investment and speculation involve on element of risk. But an investor normally takes a limited risk
and expects to hold investment for a long term to earn stable return in form of interest or dividends, while a
speculator takes high end risk and expects to make money out of price fluctuations in the market.
Investment and Speculation may be distinguished as below :
BASIS FOR
INVESTMENT SPECULATION
COMPARISON
The purchase of an asset with the Speculation is an act of conducting a risky
Meaning hope of getting returns is called financial transaction, in the hope of
investment. substantial profit.
Basis for Fundamental factors, i.e. Hearsay, technical charts and market
decision performance of the company. psychology
Time horizon Longer term Short term
Risk involved Moderate risk High risk
Intent to profit Changes in value Changes in prices
Expected rate of
Modest rate of return High rate of return
return
Funds An investor uses his own funds. A speculator uses borrowed funds.
Income Stable Uncertain and Erratic
Behavior of
Conservative and Cautious Daring and Careless
participants
Investment requires an investor
peculation is usually based on wild rumours
to do some work before hand
Research and unsubstantiated hearsays which cannot
and decisions are made based on
be checked for accuracy.
known facts and figure.
Since speculation is not based on anything
Over a long period of time, true concrete, its result is not at all
Consequence investment tends to produce a predictable. Speculation can occasionally
positive result. produce very high gains just as it can
produce very high losses.
2 INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES
Various post office schemes and there features are described in the table given below:
Investment
Interest Salient Tax
Scheme Tenure Denominat-
Rates Features Benefits
ions and limits
Min : 50 Max :
3.5% p.a. On
Post Office Rs. 1 lakh for
individual No specific or Cheque facility Interest is tax-free
Savings individual and
and joint fix tenure available u/s 10(11)
Account 2 lakhs for joint
account
account
One
withdrawal up to
50% of the
5-Year Post Min : Rs. 10 balance is
Office 7.5% 5 years. Can be per month or allowed after one
Recurring compounded renewed for multiples of Rs. year. Full No tax Benefit
Deposit quarterly another 5 years 5 Max : No maturity value
Account limit allowed on R.D.
6 & 12 months
advance deposits
earn rebate.
No tax deduction
Monthly 8.40% Min: Rs. 1500
at source and No tax deduction at
Incone payable 6 years and Max: Rs.
10% bonus at source
Scheme monthly 450,000
maturity.
6.25% 1 year
Long-term
Post Office
accounts could
Time Deposit
be closed after 1
Account 6.50% 2 years year for
7.25% 3 years discounted
Min: Rs. 200 interest. A/cs
Investment
and its multiple could be closed
qualifies for
thereof Max: after 6 months
deduction u/s 80C.
No limit but before a year
for no int.
Interest is
7.50% 5 years
calculated
quarterly but
payable yearly.
No limits.
Investment
8.4% denomination s A single holder
compounded available are of certificate can be
yearly. Rs. 100, Rs. purchased by an
Kisan Vikas Money 500, Rs. 1000, adult. A
No tax benefits
Patra doubles in 8 Rs. 5000, Rs. certificate can
years and 7 10,000, in all also be
months Post Offices purchased jointly
and Rs. 50,000 by two adults.
in all Head Post
Offices.
Age should be
above 60 yrs. or
55 yrs above if
retired under
superannuation.
Account if
Only 1 deposit closed after 1
Senior
allowed in year will suffer a Investment
Citizens‟
9% p.a. 5 years multiple of Rs. deduction of qualifies for
Savings
1000. Max is 1.5% interest and deduction u/s 80C.
Scheme
Rs. 15 lakhs after 2 years will
suffer a
deduction of 1%
interest. TDS is
made on interest
if it exceeds
Rs.10000 p.a.
FEATURES
(1) PPF account may be opened at any branch of the SBI or its subsidiaries or at specified branches of
nationalised banks like the Bank of Maharashtra, Bank of Baroda etc. PPF account can be opened even in a
post office on the same terms and conditions. Such account can be opened by any individual or by HUF.
Even NRI can be opened PPF account.
(2)The PPF account is for a period of 15 years but can be extended for more years (5 years at a time) at the
desire of the depositor.
(3) The depositor is expected to make a minimum deposit of Rs. 100 every year.
(4) The PPF account is not transferable, but nomination facility is available.
(5) The deposits in a PPF account are qualified for tax exemption- under the Income-tax Act (Section 80 -
(6) A compound interest at 8% per annum is paid in the case of PPF account with effect from 1-3-2003. The
interest accumulated in the PPF account is also tax free.
(7) PPF A/c holder is eligible for one withdrawal per financial year after five years from the end of the year
in which the subscription is made. It is limited to 50% of the balance at the end of the fourth year.
(8) On maturity, the credit balance in the PPF account can be withdrawn or the subscriber can extend
account for five years more.
(9) The balance amount in a PPF account is fully exempted from the Wealth Tax. The PPF account is also
exempted from attachment from the court.
Scheme Interest Tenure Investment Salient Tax Benefits
Rates Denominations Features
And Limits
15-Year 8 % p. a. 15 Years Min: Rs. 500 In 1 Withdrawal Can Be Investment
Public Compoun Tenure Year Max: Rs. Made Every Year And Interest
Provident ded 70000 In 1 Year After The 7th Qualifies For
Fund Yearly Deposits Can Be Financial Year. From Deduction
Account Made In Lump- The 3rd Financial U/S 80C.
Sum Or 12 Year, Loan Can Be
Installments Availed Against
PPF. No Attachment
Under Court Decree
Order.
LIMITATIONS
(1) Low liquidity as one withdrawal is allowed in a year.
(2) The PPF account is for a period of 15 years which is a very long period.
3. BANK DEPOSITS
It is the simplest avenue of investment. A bank deposit can be made by opening a bank account and
depositing money in it. Different types of band deposit accounts are :
(i) Current Account
ADVANTAGES
(1) Investment is reasonably safe and secured with adequate liquidity.
(2) Banks offer reasonable return on the investment made and that too in a regular manner.
(3) Banks offer loan facility against the investments made.
(4) Procedures and formalities involved in bank investment are limited, simple and quick.
(5) Banks offer various services and facilities to their customers.
LIMITATIONS/DEMERITS
(1) The rate of return in the case of bank investment is low as compared to other avenues of investment.
(2) The return on investment is not adequate even to give protection against the present inflation rate in the
country.
(3) Capital appreciation is not possible in bank investment.
3. However, these deposits are not secured like those in the bank. In case of default by a company, the
investor cannot sell the deposit documents to recover his amount. The investor has no claim over the assets
of the company in case the company is wound-up. This makes CFD a risky option.
4. In order to protect ones investment from the risk, the performance of the company must be reviewed
before investing. Also at the time of maturity, if you wish to reinvest your amount, check the company‟s
performance. Keep a regular check on the companies in which you plan to invest by keeping track of its
balance sheet and share prices. This shall enable you to decide your investment in CFD.
5. The NBFCs that offer CFD has to get themselves rated by the rating agencies such as CRISIL, CARE,
ICRA etc., but manufacturing firms have no such compulsion. Before you invest in any of the CFDs, check
the company‟s ratings. A company with the rating of AA is considered a good investment option.
BENEFITS
i) High rates of interest.
ii) Stable source of income.
iii) Sufficient safety as most companies are rated.
iv) Flexible tenure ranging from 6 months to 7 years.
v) Only 6 months lock-in period
vi) High liquidity - issuers offer loan against CFD and pre-mature withdrawal facility
vii) No TDS in case the interest is only ? 5000 in a year.
viii) Nomination facility.
ix) Regular interest incomes - monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, or yearly.
x) Simple operational process - PAN not required
BENEFITS
1. Transparency
ULIPs provide a transparent option to customers for planning their various life stage needs through market-
led investments as compared to the traditional investment plans.
2. Insurance cover plus savings
ULIPs serve 2 main purposes - of providing life insurance along with savings at market-linked returns.
Hence, ULIPs can be termed as a two-in-one plan in terms of offering an individual the twin benefits of life
insurance plus savings. This option is not available in comparable instruments such as mutual fund for
instance, that does not offer a life cover.
ULIPs offer a variety of investment options unlike traditional life insurance plans. ULIPs generally come in
3 broad variants :
• Aggressive ULIPs (invest 80% - 100% in equities and the balance in debt)
Such allocation of debt/equity varies according to insurance companies. An investor also has the option of
choosing various options/funds available according to his risk appetite and return expectation.
1. Flexibility
Individuals may switch between the ULIP fund options in order to capitalize on investment opportunities
across the debt and equity markets. Some insurance companies also allow a certain number of free switches.
This is an extremely important feature which allows the investor to benefit from the vagaries of stock/debt
markets. Switching also helps individuals as they can shift from an aggressive to a balanced or conservative
ULIP as they are approaching retirement based on their risk appetite.
2. Works like a SIP
Rupee cost-averaging is an important benefit associated with ULIPs. The mutual fund industry offer SIP
options to investors where in individuals invest their monies regularly over a period of time and in intervals
of a month/quarter and don't need to be worried about „timing1 the stock markets. It is important to note that
these benefits are not peculiar to mutual funds only. Not many realize that ULIPs also tend to work in the
same manner, albeit on a quarterly or half- yearly basis.
3. ULIP - Important considerations
When buying a ULIP, one must select the plan that best suits your needs. The important thing is to look for
and understand the nuances that can considerably alter the manner in which the product works for you.
Consider the following :
i) Charges : A complete charge structure includes the initial charges, fixed administrative charges, fund
management charges, mortality charges and spreads, and that too, not only in the first year but throughout
the term of the policy.
ii) Fund Options and Management : One needs to understand the various fund options available and the
fund management objectives of the scheme. Facts like who manages the funds, how much experience do
they have, are there sufficient controls - need to be taken into consideration.
iii) Features : Most ULIPs are really good in providing features such as allowing one to top-up and/or
switch between funds, increase or decrease the protection level, or also premium holidays. The conditions
and charges associated for such features should be understood. For instance, is there any minimum amount
that must be switched? Are there any charges on the same?
iv) Company : Another important consideration is the brand that you are insuring with. The company must
be trustworthy and should be in a position to honor its commitments as per your needs.
B) MONEY MARKET
The money market is the market in which short term funds are borrowed and lent. The lending money
market institutions are:
• Government of India and other sovereign bodies.
• Banks and Development Financial Institutions.
• PSUs [Public Sector Undertakings].
• Private sector organizations
• The Government/Quasi government owned non-corporate entities.
2. TREASURY BILLS
These are the lowest risk category instruments for the short term. RBI issues treasury bills [T-bills] at a
prefixed day and for a fixed amount. There are 4 types of treasury bills :
• 14-day T-bill : maturity is in 14 days, it is auctioned on every Friday of every week and the notified
amount for auction is Rs. 100 crores.
• 182-day T-bill : maturity is in 182 days, it is auctioned on every alternate Wednesday, which is not a
reporting week and the notified amount for auction is Rs. 100 crores.
• 364-day T-bill : maturity is 64 days, it is auctioned on every alternate Wednesday which is a reporting
week and the notified amount for the auction is Rs. 500 crores.
3. CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSITS
a) After treasury bills, the next lowest risk category investment option is certificate of deposit (CD) issued
by banks and Financial Institution (FI). A CD is a negotiable promissory note, secure and short term, of up
to a year, in nature.
b) A CD is issued at a discount to the face value, the discount rate being negotiated between the issuer and
the investor. Although RBI allows CDs up to one-year maturity, the maturity most quoted in the market is
for 90 days.
4. COMMERCIAL PAPERS
a) Commercial papers [CPs] are negotiable short-term unsecured promissory notes with fixed maturities,
issued by well-rated organizations. These are generally sold on discount basis.
b) Organizations can issue CPs either directly or through banks or merchant banks [called as dealers]. These
instruments are normally issued in the multiples of five crores for 30/45/60/90/120/180/270/364 days.
c) Such a transaction is called Repo when viewed from the prospective of the buyer of securities that is the
party acquiring fund. It is called reverse repo when viewed from the prospective of supplier of funds.
6. COMMERCIAL BILLS
a) Bills of exchange are negotiable instruments drawn by the seller or drawer of the goods on the buyer or
drawee of the good for the value of the goods delivered. These bills are called trade bills.
b) These trade bills are called commercial bills when they are accepted by commercial banks. If the bill is
payable at a future date and the seller needs money during the currency of the bill then the seller may
approach the bank for discounting the bill.
a) Tax-Saving Bonds
b) Regular Income Bonds
Regular-Income Bonds, as the name suggests, are meant to provide a stable source of income at regular, pre-
determined intervals.
Examples are :
a) Double Your Money Bond
b) Step-Up Interest Bond
c) Retirement Bond
d) Encash Bond
e) Education Bonds
f) Money Multiplier Bonds/Deep Discount Bond
Debentures are similar to Bonds the only difference is that they are issued by companies instead of
Government institutions.
FEATURES OF DEBENTURES/BONDS
1. Bonds are usually not suitable for an increase in your investment. However, in the rare situation where an
investor buys bonds at a lower price just before a decline in interest rates, the resultant drop in rates leads to
an increase in the price of the bond, thereby facilitating an increase in your investment. This is called capital
appreciation.
2. Bonds are suitable for regular income purposes. Depending on the type of bond, an investor may receive
interest semi-annually or even monthly, as is the case with monthly-income bonds. Depending on one's
capacity to bear risk, one can opt for bonds issued by top-ranking corporates, or that of companies with
lower credit ratings. Usually, bonds of top-rated corporates provide lower yield as compared to those issued
by companies that are lower in the ratings.
3. In times of falling inflation, the real rate of return remains high, but bonds do not offer any protection if
prices are rising. This is because they offer a pre-determined rate of interest.
4. One can borrow against bonds by pledging the same with a bank. However, borrowings depend on the
credit rating of the instrument. For instance, it is easier to borrow against government bonds than against
bonds issued by a company with a low credit rating.
5. Bonds are rated by specialized credit rating agencies. Credit rating agencies include CARE, CRISIL,
ICRA and Fitch. An AAA rating indicates highest level of safety while D or FD indicates the least. The
yield on a bond varies inversely with its credit (safety) rating.
Equity capital represents ownership capital. Equity shareholders collectively own the company. They bear
the risk and enjoy the rewards of ownership. The potential rewards and the downsides of equity shares make
this an exciting, attractive and at the same time a risky proposition for investment.
In financial markets, the stock capital or equity capital of a corporation or a joint stock company is the
capital raised through the issuance, sale, and distribution of shares. A person or organization that holds at
least a partial share of stock is called a shareholder.
much funds being available at the disposal of the management and may lead to over capitalisation in long
term.
3. Speculation : Not every investor takes an informed decision in the stock market, many of them take
investment decision based on some „tip‟ that they get from there so called investment consultant or even
friends, such activity is pure speculation. But this is most prevalent in Indian stock markets and because of
this investors often end up loosing money.
PREFERENCE SHARES
Preference shares represent a hybrid security that has some characteristics of equity shares and some
features of debentures. The relevant features of preference shares are as follows :
1. Preference shares carry a fixed rate of dividend. But the company has discretion of not paying such
dividend for a particular year.
2. Preference dividend is payable only out of distributable profits.
3. Dividend on preference shares is generally cumulative i.e. dividend skipped in the year has to be paid up
in the subsequent year before equity dividend can be paid.
4. Preference shares are redeemable.
5. Preference shares may be convertible into equity shares.
6. Dividend on Preference shares also totally exempt from tax.
E] MUTUAL FUNDS
a) A Mutual Fund is an intermediary that pools money from a number of investors and invests the same in a
variety of different financial instruments. The income earned through these investments and the capital
appreciation realized by the scheme is shared by the investors or Unit Holders, in proportion to the number
of units owned by them.
b) The organization that manages the investment is known as Asset Management Company [AMC].
c) In India, operations of AMC are supervised and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India
(SEBI).
2. Professional Management :
Most mutual funds pay topflight professionals to manage their investments. These managers decide what
securities the fund will buy and sell.
3. Convenient Administration :
Investing in a Mutual fund reduces paper work and helps investors to avoid many problems such as bad
deliveries, delayed payments and unnecessary follow up with brokers and companies. Mutual funds save
investors time and make investing easy and convenient.
4. Regulatory oversight :
Mutual funds are subject to many government regulations that protect investors from fraud.
5. Liquidity :
It's easy to get your money out of a mutual fund. Write a check, make a call, and you've got the cash.
6. Convenience :
You can usually buy mutual fund shares by mail, phone, or over the Internet.
7. Low cost :
Mutual fund expenses are often no more than brokerage in shares.
8. Transparency :
Investors get regular information on the value of their
9. Flexibility
10. Choice of schemes
11. Tax benefits
12. Well regulated (by SEBI in India)
mutual funds than when they buy and sell stocks on their own. However, anyone who invests through a
mutual fund runs the risk of losing money.
3. Taxes :
During a typical year, most actively managed mutual funds sell anywhere from 20 to 70 percent of the
securities in their portfolios. If your fund makes a profit on its sales, you will pay taxes on the income you
receive, even if you reinvest the money you made.
4. Management risk :
When you invest in a mutual fund, you depend on the fund's manager to make the right decisions regarding
the fund's portfolio. If the manager does not perform as well as you had hoped, you might not make as much
money on your investment as you expected. Of course, if you invest in Index Funds, you forego
management risk, because these funds do not employ managers.
6. Too much concentration on blue-chip securities which are high priced and which do not offer more than
average return.
F] LIFE INSURANCE
a) Life insurance business was nationalised in India since long (1956) and is run by the Life Insurance
Corporation of India. In addition, we have also Postal Life Insurance Scheme run by the Postal Department.
b) LIC is responsible for the expansion of life insurance business in India. In addition, it plays an important
role in collecting the savings of the people. It gives protection and acts as a method of compulsory savings.
c) LIC is one avenue for investment of money out of regular income. It also gives protection to the family
members of the policyholder. Life insurance business is no more the monopoly of LIC. Private sector is now
allowed to participate in the insurance business.
ADVANTAGES
(1) Protection to family members through financial support in the case of death of policyholder.
(2) Investment in life insurance scheme serves as a provision for old age (maintenance, medial expenses,
etc.).
(3) It acts as a method of compulsory saving over a long period out of regular income.
(4) Investment in life insurance provides loan facility from banks.
(5) LIC now gives bonus to policyholders on yearly>basis. This adds to the maturity value of policy.
(6) Investment in life insurance scheme gives tax benefit. This tax benefit is available even when the policy
is taken on the name of investor's wife, son or daughter.
(7) Investment in life insurance scheme gives mental peace to investors in this age when our life is exposed
to various risks, uncertainties and dangers.
(8) Investment in life iiisurance provides comfortable and financially independent life after retirement. This
is a special benefit during the old age to life insurance policyholders.
LIC issues different life policies such as whole life policy, endowment policy, money back policy, etc. An
investor can select any policy considering his age, monthly/ annual income and capacity to save. Investment
in LIC has wider significance. It is not merely for monetary benefit but for security of investor and his
family members. Recently, LIC has introduced "Jeevan Anand Retirement Benefit Package" which offers
many benefits to investors. Jeevan Shree-1 and LIC Bima Plus are two more beneficial investment plans
started recently by LIC.
FEATURES
(1) Ownership of a residential house provides owned accommodation and gives satisfaction to the head as
well as family members. It acts as one useful family asset with saleable value.
(2) There is capital appreciation of residential buildings particularly in the urban areas.
(3) Loans are available from different agencies like banks, HDFC and so on for buying, construction or
renovation of owned residential building.
(4) Interest on such loans is tax deductible within certain limits.
(5) Wealth tax benefit is available in the case of residential building as the value is reckoned at its historical
cost and not at its present market price.
ADVANTAGES
(1) Real estate like house is a necessity of life and provides pleasure to all family members.
(2) Real estate property acts as an asset (financial security) which can be used in case of need. Moreover,
the asset value increases year after year.
(3) Profit in the real estate investment is substantial provided “the owner is willing to wait till appropriate
time.
(4) The chances of capital appreciation are usually bright in the case of real estate properties.
(5) Real estate properties can be used as security for raising loan. In addition tax benefit and protection
against inflation are available.
DISADVANTAGES
(1) Investment in real estate properties is normally substantial. Due to huge investment in one item, the
benefits of diversification of investment are not available.
(2) In real estate property, profitability is available at the cost of liquidity. Thus, liquidity is low.
(3) The risk in the investment is more as compared to investment in banks, UTI, etc.
(4) Tax burden in the form of stamp duty, capital gains tax, etc. is heavy as and when the property is sold
out.
(5) Repairs, maintenance, etc. constitute additional expenditure and botheration to the owner.
(6) Government rules and regulations regarding buying and selling are troublesome in the case of real estate
properties.
MERITS/ADVANTAGES
(1) Gold and silver are useful as a store of wealth. They even act as secret assets.
(2) Both the metals are highly liquid. This facilitates easy convertibility into cash at any time and that too
without incurring any loss.
(3) The market price of both the metals is continuously rising. This makes investment normally profitable.
Investment in gold/silver acts as a hedge against inflation.
(4) Investment in gold and silver provides a sense of security to the investor as it has immediate liquidity.
(5) There is a high degree of prestige value for gold and silver in the society. The benefit of capital
appreciation is also available.
(6) Investment in gold and silver is quite safe and secured, (gold is also scam-free). The possibility of loss in
the investment is practically nil in the case of these metals.
LIMITATIONS
(1) Such investment is risky due to thefts, etc.
(2) It is a dead type of investment as profit will be available only when it is sold out and people rarely sell
gold.
3. PRECIOUS STONES
Diamonds, rubies, emeralds, sapphires and pearls have appealed to investors from long time because of their
beauty and rarity. These stones have attracted interest because of their high per carat value. The quality of
these stones is basically judged in terms of carat, clarity. These stones only attract the few affluent investors,
who have skill in buying them. It is less appealing to the bulk of the investors due to the following reasons :
a) They do not provide regular current income source.
b) There is no tax advantage associated with them.
c) They are illiquid and trading commissions in them tend to be high.
d) The assessment of their value is controversial and subjective.
4. ART OBJECTS
Objects which possess aesthetic appeal because their production requires skill, taste, creativity, talent and
imagination may be referred to as art objects. These objects include paintings, sculptures, antiques,
sketching, coins, stamps, flower vases, watches and cars. It has been found that the longer the time of
holding this investment the greater the value of these assets. The basic advantage of an antique is that the
investor can sell it at any price which he profounds, but it is very difficult to find these antiques and to give
price for which is worthy.
1. Money Market
The money market refers to the market where borrowers and lenders exchange short-term funds to solve
their liquidity needs. Money market instruments are generally financial claims that have low default risk,
maturities under one year and high marketability.
2. Capital Market
The capital Market is a market for financial investments that are direct or indirect claims to capital. It is
wider than the Securities Market and embraces all forms of lending and borrowing, whether or not
evidenced by the creation of a negotiable financial instrument. The capital market comprises the complex of
institutions and mechanisms through which intermediate term funds and long term funds are pooled and
made available to business, government and individuals. The capital market also encompasses the process
by which securities already outstanding are transferred.
The capital market and in particular the stock exchange is referred to as the barometer of the economy.
Government‟s policy is so moulded that creation of wealth through products and services is facilitated and
surpluses and profits are channelised into productive uses through capital market operations. Reasonable
opportunities and protection are afforded by the Government through special measures in the capital market
to get new investments from the public and the institutions and to ensure their liquidity.
3. Securities Market
The securities market, however, refers to the markets for those financial instruments/claims/'obligations that
are commonly and readily transferable by sale.
The securities Market have two inter-dependent and inseparable segments, the New issue (primary market
and the stock (secondary) market.
a. Primary Market
The primary market provides the channel for sale of new securities, while the secondary market deals in
securities previously issued. The issuer of securities sells the securities in the primary market to raise funds
for investment and/or to discharge some obligation.
In other words, the market wherein resources are mobilized by companies through issue of new securities
is called the primary market. These resources are required for new projects as well as for existing
projects with a view to expansion, modernisation, diversification and upgradation.
The issue of securities by companies can take place in any of the following methods :
1. Initial Pubic Offer (IPO) [these are securities issued for the first time to the public by the company);
2. Further issue of capital [any issue of securities by the company to public after the IPO is known as further
issue of capital].
3. Rights issue to existing shareholders (On renunciation of rights, the shares can be sold by the company
to others also);
4. Offer of securities under reservation/firm allotment basis to :
i) Foreign partners and collaborators,
b. Secondary Market
A secondary market is a market where investors purchase securities or assets from other investors, rather
than from issuing companies themselves. The national exchanges - such as the National Stock Exchange and
the Bombay Stock Exchnage are secondary markets.
Secondary markets exist for other securities as well, such as when funds, investment banks, or entities such
as Fannie Mae purchase mortgages from issuing lenders. In any secondary market trade, the cash proceeds
go to an investor rather than to the underlying company/entity directly.
These services are primarily relevant only to publicly traded firms, or firms which plan to go public in the
near future. Specific functions include making a market in a stock, placing new offerings, and publishing
research reports.
4. Investment Management
Investment banks provide advice to investors to purchase, manage and trade various securities like shares,
debentures, etc and other assets like real estate, hedge funds, mutual funds etc. Investors may range from big
fund houses to financial institutions to private investors. Generally there is a separate division for
investment Management in an investment bank which is further divided into Private wealth management
and Private client services.
5. Boutiques
Small investment banking firms providing financial services are called boutiques. They mainly specialize .
in trading, advising for Merger and Acquisitions, providing technical analysis etc.
6. Structuring of derivatives
This division is involved in creating complex structured derivative products which offer much greater
margin and returns as compared to traditional derivatives and cash securities.
7. Research
It is another important function of investment bank which does extensive research on financial and other
aspects of various companies and writes report on the same indicating/advising “buy” or “Sell” ratings for
the same. Although this division does not generate direct revenue but information generated by them is used
as a guide by investors for their investments, it also helps in merger and acquisition in some cases.
8. Risk Management
This is an ongoing activity which involves analyzing the market and credit risk that traders are taking onto
their books while conducting their trades on laily basis. This helps in setting limits on the amount of capital
that be able to trade in order to prevent „bad‟ trades which may have detrimental effect to the trading system
as a whole.
10. Underwriting
If an entity decides to raise funds through an equity or debt offering, one or more investment banks will also
underwrite the securities. This means the institution buys a certain number of shares - or bonds - at a
predetermined price and re-sells them through an exchange.
In reality, the task of underwriting securities often falls on more than one investment bank. If it's a larger
offering, the managing underwriter will often form a syndicate of other banks that sell a portion of the
shares. This way, the firms can market the stocks and bonds to a larger segment of the public and lower their
risk. The manager makes part of the profit, even if another syndicate member actually sells the security.
shares. This means compiling financial statements, information about the company's management and
current ownership and a statement of how the firm plans to use the proceeds.
Stock market indexes are useful for a variety of reasons. Some of them are:
(1) They provide a historical comparison of returns on money invested in - the stock market against other
forms of investments such as gold or debt.
(2) They can be used as a standard against which to compare the performance of an equity fund.
(3) In It is a lead indicator of the performance of the overall economy or a sector of the economy
(4) Stock indexes reflect highly up to date information
(5) Modern financial applications such as Index Funds, Index Futures, Index Options play an important
role in financial investments and risk management
The public sector banks with their existing widespread branch network have been primarily increasing their
IT related expenditure. The core profitability of the public sector banks continue to rise on the back of
improving operating efficiencies. Consolidation would further improve PSU banks' competitive edge
against their private counterparts in servicing customers — both retail and corporate — in the international
and domestic markets. Recognizing these changing dynamics of Indian banking industry, IISL has
developed Nifty PSU Bank Index to capture the performance of the PSU banks.
The Nifty Dividend Opportunities 50 Index is designed to provide exposure to high yielding companies
listed on NSE while meeting stability and tradability requirements. The Nifty Dividend Opportunities 50
Index comprises of 50 companies. The methodology employs a yield driven selection criteria that aims to
maximize yield while providing stability and tradability.
INDICES AT BSE
1. SENSEX
SENSEX, first compiled in 1986, was calculated on a "Market Capitalization- Weighted" methodology of
30 component stocks representing large, well- established and financially sound companies across key
sectors. The base year of SENSEX was taken as 1978-79. SENSEX today is widely reported in both
domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media. It is scientifically designed and
is based on globally accepted construction and review methodology. Since September 1, 2003, SENSEX is
being calculated oh a free-float market capitalization methodology. The "free-float market capitalization-
weighted" methodology is a widely followed index construction methodology on which majority of global
equity indices are based; all major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the
free-float methodology.
The growth of the equity market in India has been phenomenal in the present dect de. Right from early
nineties, the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of various bull and bear runs. In the late
nineties, the Indian market witnessed a huge frenzy in the 'TMT sectors. More recently, real estate caught
the fancy of the investors. SENSEX has captured all these happenings in the most judicious manner. One
can identify the booms and busts of the Indian equity market through SENSEX. As the oldest index in the
country, it provides the time series data over a fairly long period of time (from 1979 onwards). Small
wonder, the SENSEX has become one of the most prominent brands in the country.
2. Other Indices
a) BSE-100 Index
b) BSE-200 Index
c) Dollex Series of BSE Indices
d) BSE-500 Index
e) BSE IPO Index
f) BSE TECk Index
g) BSE PSU Index
h) BSE Mid-Cap and BSE Small-Cap Index
COMPUTATION OF INDEX
Index value can be computed using following steps:
1. Calculate market capitalization of each company‟s share listed in the index as per respective
company‟s opening share price.
2. Add market capitalization of all companies computed in the above step.
3. Repeat above two steps for closing share prices.
4. Closing Index value will be computed as follows:
Index Value = Index on Previous Day x Total market capitalisation for current day
Total capitalisation of the previous day
THE NASDAQ
The “National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations” or NASDAQ Stock Market
commonly known as the NASDAQ is an American stock exchange. It is the second-largest exchange in the
world by market capitalization, behind only the New York Stock Exchange. The exchange platform is
owned by The NASDAQ OMX Group, which also owns the OMX stock market network and several other
US stock and options exchanges.
It was founded in 1971 by the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), which divested itself of
NASDAQ in a series of sales in 2000 and 2001. NASDAQ stock is listed on its own stock exchange
marketing July 2, 2002, under the ticker symbol NDAQ.
NASDAQ begin trading on February 8, 1971 and is world‟s first electronic stock market. At first, it was
merely a quotation system and did not provide a way to perform electronic trades. It helped lower the spread
(the difference between the bid price and the ask price of the stock), because of this it was unpopular among
brokers who made much of their money on the spread.
In 1992, NASDAQ joined with the London Stock Exchange to form the first intercontinental linkage of
securities markets. The National Association of Securities Dealers spun off NASDAQ in 2000 to form a
public company, the NASDAQ Stock Market, Inc.
To qualify for listing on the exchange, a company must be registered with the United States Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC), must have at least three market makers (financial firms that act as brokers or
dealers for specific securities) and must meet minimum requirements for assets, capital, public shares, and
shareholders.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
„NASDAQ Composite‟ is the main index of NASDAQ, which has been published since its inception.
However, its exchange-traded fund tracks the large-cap NASDAQ-100 index, which was introduced in 1985
alongside the NASDAQ 100 Financial Index.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is the market-capitalization weighted index of the more than 3,000 common
equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American
depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks. The index
includes all Nasdaq listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds
(ETFs) or debentures.
Unlike other market indexes, the Nasdaq composite is not limited to companies that have U.S. headquarters.
It is very common to hear the closing price of the Nasdaq Composite Index reported in the financial press,
or as part of the evening news.
Some major companies listed on NASDAQ composite along with their ticker and percentage value are
Apple (AAPL) - 14.60%, Microsoft (MSFT) - 7.40%, Amazon (AMZN) - 3.84%, Google (GOOG) Class C
- 3.50%, Facebook (FB) - 3.41%, Gilead Sciences (GILD) - 3.22%, Intel (INTC) - 3.14%, Google
(GOOGL) Class A - 3.01%, etc.
Prior to using the ACT, the NASDAQ utilized the Trade Acceptance and Reconciliation Service, or TARS.
ACT replaced TARS and assumed its functionality in the third quarter of 1998.
ACT offers a risk management system that allows clearing firms to monitor the activity of their clients. This
tool is unique within the clearing business. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) also
refers to ACT as the Trade Reporting Facility (TRF)
DEPOSITORIES
Till few years back, share trading was done in the form of physical certificates that the investor had to keep
safe and then forward to the buyer once sold. This process was highly time consuming and gave rise to
issues like fake securities and bad deliveries. All these reasons and the improvement in technology gave rise
to depositories and the electronic mode of holding securities.
A depository resembles a bank; however in case of a depository the deposits are securities, such as shares,
debentures, bonds and government securities, in electronic form. A depository functions as a bank- both are
common houses that hold assets of the participating members and provide services to clients.
Comparison of a Depository with a Bank
Depositories Banks
Hold securities in an account. Hold funds in an account.
Transfer securities between accounts on the Transfers funds between accounts on the
instruction of the account holder. instruction of the account holder.
Assist in transfer of ownership without having Assist in transfers without having to handle
to handle securities. money.
Facilitates safekeeping of shares. Facilitates safekeeping of money.
DEPOSITORIES IN INDIA
There are. 2 depositories in India :
1. The National Securities Depository Limited [NSDL]
2. Central Depository for Securities Limited [CDSL]
1. NATIONAL SECURITIES DEPOSITORY LIMITED (NSDL), the first depository in India. This
depository promoted by institutions of national stature responsible for economic development of the country
has since established a national infrastructure of international standards that handles most of the securities
held and settled in de-materialised form in the Indian capital market.
Using innovative and flexible technology systems, NSDL works to support the investors and brokers in the
capital market of the country. NSDL aims at ensuring the safety and soundness of Indian marketplaces by
developing settlement solutions that increase efficiency, minimise risk and reduce costs. NSDL plays a quiet
but central role in developing products and services that will continue to nurture the growing needs of the
financial services industry.
In the depository system, securities are held in depository accounts, which is more or less similar to holding
funds in bank accounts. Transfer of ownership of securities is done through simple account transfers. This
method does away with all the risks and hassles normally associated with paperwork. Consequently, the cost
of transacting in a depository environment is considerably lower as compared to transacting in certificates.
In August 2009, number of Demat accounts held with NSDL crossed one crore.
i) Promoters/Shareholders :
NSDL is promoted by Industrial Development Bank of India Limited (IDBI) - the largest development bank
of India, Unit Trust of India (UTI) - the largest mutual fund in India and National Stock Exchange of India
Limited (NSE) - the largest stock exchange in India. Some of the prominent banks in the country have taken
a stake in NSDL.
ii) NSDL Facts and figures As on June 30, 2014 : Number of certificates eliminated (Approx.) : 1,653 Crore
Investor's Accounts : 1, 31, 16, 821
Number of companies in which more than 75% shares are dematted : 12,531
Average number of accounts opened per day since November 1996 : 3,573
DP Service Centers : 14, 433
Presence of Demat account holders in the country : 86% of all pin codes in the country
2. CENTRAL DEPOSITORY FOR SECURITIES LIMITED [CDSL] was promoted by Bombay Stock
Exchange Limited (BSE) jointly with leading banks such as State Bank of India, Bank of India, Bank of
Baroda, HDFC Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, and Union Bank of India and Centurion Bank.
CDSL was set up with the objective of providing convenient, dependable and secure depository services at
affordable cost to all market participants. Some of the important milestones of CDSL system are :
a) CDSL received the certificate of commencement of business from SEBI in February, 1999.
b) Honourable Union Finance Minister, Shri Yashwant Sinha flagged off the operations of CDSL on July
15, 1999.
c) Settlement of trades in the demat mode through BOI Shareholding Limited, the clearing house of BSE,
started in July 1999.
d) All leading stock exchanges like the National Stock Exchange, Calcutta Stock Exchange, Delhi Stock
Exchange, The Stock Exchange, Ahmedabad, etc have established connectivity with CDSL.
e) As at the end of Dec 2007, over 5000 issuers have admitted their securities (equities, bonds,
debentures, commercial papers), units of mutual funds, certificate of deposits etc. into the CDSL system.
DEPOSITORY PARTICIPANT
A Depository Participant (DP) is described as an agent of the depository. They are the intermediaries
between the depository and the investors. The relationship between the DPs and the depository is governed
by an agreement made between the two under the Depositories Act.
The main characteristics of a depository participant are as under :
1. Acts as an agent to Depository.
2. Customer interface of Depository.
3. Functions like Securities Bank.
4. Account opening.
5. Facilitates dematerialisation.
6. Instant transfer of shares on pay-out of funds.
7. Credits to investors in IPO, rights, bonus.
8. Settles trades in electronic segment.
MARKET CAPITALIZATION
Market Capitalization indicates how big the company is from the market's perspective. In other words, it
indicates how much money is required if you wish to buy all the shares of the company.
For example CIPLA's MC is Rs. 49,000 Crs. This is how much you need if you wish to buy all the shares of
Cipla. Similarly TCS MC Rs. 548,296 Crs.
Calculating a stock's capitalization
Market Capitalization = Market Price of the stock x The number of the stock's outstanding shares*
*Outstanding means the shares held by the public
For example, if Stock A has a Current Market Price of Rs. 20 per share, and there are 1,00,000 shares in the
hands of public investors, then Stock A has a capitalization of 20,00,000. The company's capitalization is an
effective parameter to group corporate stocks.
In the US, mid-cap shares are those stocks that have a market capitalization ranging from Rs. 9,000 crore to
Rs. 45,000 crore. In India, these shares would be classified as large-cap shares. Thus, classification of shares
into large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap is made on the basis of the relative size of the market in that particular
country. The total market capitalization of US markets is $15 trillion. In India, the market capitalization of
listed companies is around $600bn.
As many of these companies are relatively new, it is difficult to predict how they will perform in the market.
Being small enterprises, growth spurts dramatically affect their values and revenues, sending prices soaring.
On the other hand, the stocks of these companies tend to be volatile and may decline dramatically.
Most Initial Public Offerings are for small-cap companies, although these days large companies do tend to
source the capital markets for expansion plans. Aggressive mutual funds are also enthusiastic about adding
small-cap stocks in their portfolios. Because they have the advantage of being highly growth oriented,
small-cap stocks can forego paying dividends to investors, which enables the profits earned to be reinvested
for future growth.
MID-CAP STOCKS
Mid-cap stocks are typically stocks of medium-sized companies. These are stocks of well-known
companies, recognized as seasoned players in the market. They offer you the twin advantages of acquiring
stocks with good growth potential as well as the stability of a larger company. Generally companies that
have a market Capitalization in the range of 250-4000 crores are mid cap stocks
Mid-cap stocks also include baby blue chips; companies that show steady growth backed by a good track
record. They are like blue-chip stocks (which are large-cap stocks) but lack their size. These stocks tend to
grow well over the long term.
LARGE-CAP STOCKS
Stocks of the largest companies (many being blue chip firms) in the market such as Tata, Reliance, ICICI
are classified as large-cap stocks. Being established enterprises, they have at their disposal large reserves of
cash to exploit new business opportunities.
The sheer volume of large-cap stocks does not let them grow as rapidly as smaller capitalized companies
and the smaller stocks tend to outperfprm them over time. Investors, however gain the advantages of reaping
relatively higher dividends compared to small- and mid-cap stocks while also ensuring the long¬term
preservation of their capital.
PENNY STOCK
A penny stock is a stock that trades at a relatively low price and market capitalization, usually outside of the
major market exchanges. These types of stocks are generally considered to be highly speculative and high
risk because of their lack of liquidity, large bid-ask spreads, small capitalization and limited following and
disclosure. The term itself is a misnomer. because there is no generally accepted definition of a penny
stock. Some consider it to be any stock that trades for a very low price say Rs. 10/- or Rs. 20/- per share,
while others consider any stock trading off of the major market exchanges as a penny stock. However,
confusion can occur as there are some very large companies, based on market capitalization, that trade
below Rs. 20 per share, while there are many very small companies that trade for Rs.100 or more.
The typical penny stock is a very small company with highly illiquid and speculative shares. The company
will also generally be subject to limited listing requirements along with fewer filing and regulatory
standards.
For selecting any investment avenue an investor will evaluate the investment from two angles,
(i) Returns Expected and
(ii) Risk associated with the expected returns.
RETURN
Return means the profit earned on the capital invested in the business. It is expressed as a percentage. The
return on an investment is the profit required to establish and maintain the investment. Returns from any
security depend on how well the security has done in the past and based on past performance we can
forecast the future performance of the company.
TYPES OF RETURN
From the example we can easily conclude that you earned Rs. 5 as dividend and Rs. 5 [i.e. Rs. 55 (Price at
the end of year) - Rs. 50 (purchasing price)] as capital gains (i.e. appreciation in the value of the share),
therefore your total earning is Rs.10 per share (Rs. 5 dividend + Rs. 5 capital gains).
Now, this Rs. 10 is earned by you by investing Rs. 50 at the beginning of the year. Therefore, if we want to
convert this return of Rs. 10 in terms of percentage we can easily do so as follows : 10/50 x 100 = 20%.
Therefore our holding period returns is Rs. 10 or 20%.
We can denote the above discussion in terms of formula as follows :
Where,
HPRt = Holding Period Returns for time „t‟
Dt = Dividend received during the time „t‟
Pt = Price of the security at the end of time „t‟
Pt -1 = Price of the security at the beginning of time „t‟
3. ANNUALISED RETURNS
Annualised returns means comparing returns on two different investments, the holding periods for the
investments which are of equal length.
Returns offered by any security can easily be converted into „Annualised Returns‟ [i.e. % p.a.] using the
following formula,
Where,
AR = Annualised Returns
HPRt = Holding period returns during the time t
Mt = No. of months during the holding period.
Above formula can be used in question where information about holding period is given in the question is in
months, if information about holding period is given in terms of weeks or days the formula can be modified
and instead of using the number 12 [i.e. no. of months], number 52 [i.e. no. of weeks in an year] or number
365 [i.e. no. of days in an year] can be used respectively for weeks and days information given in the
question.
4. EXPECTED RETURNS
„Expected Returns‟ are future returns and as mentioned earlier, future is generally based on past returns. In
the example given earlier „Mr. M‟ who consistently scored low marks would be expected to score low
marks, whereas Mr. N who consistently scored 90%+ would be expected to repeat his performance in any
upcoming exam. The point is that this principle of future being based on past is true for virtually everything
that exists, be it a person or a company.
Therefore, to calculate future/ expected returns, we can simply take an average of the past returns; this
average would be treated as returns expected to be earned from the security.
Averages are of two types, namely :
i) Simple average (i.e. without probabilities) and
Where,
Rx = Expected returns or average returns of the security.
Rx = Annual returns of the security for past years
n = number of years.
We know that Expected returns or Future returns are based on past, now if after studying the past if we see a
pattern in the returns of a security, we can use such pattern to assign probabilities to the possible returns the
security can earn in futureIn terms of formula
Where,
Rx = Expected Returns or Future Returns
i = number of possible events, lowest number of events possible being „1‟ (i.e.
at least on event will occur) and highest number being „n‟.
P = Probability of occurrence of events.
R = Returns earned under a particular event.
RISK
Risk can be defined as the chance that the actual outcome from an investment will differ from the expected
outcome. Risk is only associated with the expected return because they are to be realised in future, as
against this, there is no risk in past returns. This is because past returns have already occurred and therefore
cannot change and accordingly there is no chance of it being altered and as a result there is no risk
associated with past returns and that means that risk is only associated with Future return.
i) Risk is a situation where the possible outcome is uncertain.
ii) As past is certain, there is no risk associated with it.
iii) As future is uncertain, there is risk that what we think may or may not happen.
iv) But even future is based on past and therefore we can forecast the future, although not with 100%
certainty.
v) Even though we cannot be 100% sure about the future, we can study the past and help ourselves to take
such decisions that will reduce our risk to a considerably low level and at the same time maximise our
returns.
vi) Higher the fluctuation in the past returns, higher will be the risk associated with the future returns and
vice versa.
MEASURING RISK
Measuring risk means quantifying it in terms of number, this can be done by using various „Measures of
Risk:
1. Range,
2. Variance,
3. Standard Deviation and
4. Co-efficient of variation.
1. RANGE
Range refers to spread of the various possible future returns, in other words, Range refers to the difference
between the highest possible return and lowest possible return expected from the security. It is the
percentage between which the future returns are expected to fluctuate, higher the fluctuation higher is the
risk and therefore higher the range higher is the risk.
In terms of formula,
2. VARIANCE
In case of Variance‟ we compare every possible return with the average or expected return of the security,
doing so we get how far are all the possible returns lying from the expected returns (i.e. level of variance of
all possible .returns from the average), after calculating the same for all the possible returns, the numbers so
calculated are squared to convert any negative numbers into positive numbers, the numbers so squared are
added to get Variance‟ in totality.
Higher the variance, higher will be the fluctuation of expected returns and accordingly higher will be the
risk.
In terms of formula,
Variance (without Probabilities)
3. STANDARD DEVIATION
Standard deviation is nothing but square root of Variance. In terms of formula Standard Deviation is
denoted as follows :
Without Probabilities
With Probabilities
4. CO-EFFICIENT OF VARIATION
The coefficient of variation is a measure of risk per unit of return (i.e. risk taken to earn every „1%‟ of
return). This can be used to compare the risk and returns of alternative investments. A higher coefficient of
variation indicates that the investment is more risky because to earn every unit of return we are more and
more risk. It is calculated as the ratio of the standard deviation divided by returns on the investment. In
terms of formula,
THEORY OF DOMINANCE
5. BETA
Beta is a measure of performance of a particular share or class of shares in relation to the general movement
of the market. If a share has a beta of 1, its rise and fall corresponds exactly with the market. With a beta of
2, its rise or fall is double i.e. when the market rises by 10 percent, it rises by 20 percent and when market
falls by 10 percent, it falls by 20 percent.
William F. Sharpe has developed a model for calculation of Beta of a security. It is given below:
Normally beta values for individual securities fall in range of 0.6 to 1.80. Beta can also take negative values.
However, such cases are very rare. A negative beta indicates that the two variables move in opposite
directions and the magnitude of the movement is indicated by the beta value. The value of beta may vary
depending on the period under consideration and the comparative variable. If any of these is changed the
value of beta may change. Though, theoretically the value of beta should not be a function of time frame, as
it demotes the company risk, the change in market fancy for the scrip may indeed change the beta. Thus,
beta is only an indicator of the expected relative movement. It is incapable of predicting the market by itself.
Therefore, investors, who use it for practical purpose, should be a good judge of how the market moves. If
the investors prediction of the market goes wrong using beta could cause more harm than good.
TYPES OF RISK
The market risk means the variability in the rates of return caused by the market up swings or market down
swings. It is caused by investor reactions to tangible as well as intangible events in market. Most investors
are quick to note about the security markets that returns on securities tend to move together. That is, on a
good day, the fact that some stocks in the market are rising seems to fuel enthusiasm, and other stocks tend
to rise also. On the other hand, when some stocks begin to fall, others will also tend to fall as a mood of
pessimism pervades the market. This market psychology is the explanation of the existence of market risk,
which is the volatility of a security's return attributable to changes in the level of market returns. Some
securities are quite sensitive to changes in the market and have a high degree of market risk, while others
fluctuate very little as the market changes. When a relatively small increase in the market usually
accompanies a relatively larger increase in the price of stock, the stock has a high degree of market risk.
These are those investors like to take more risk, there main motive while investing money is not to earn
returns but to take risk. They like to take high risk with investing the funds available to them in risky
investments to satisfy there urge to take risk and in hope of earnings huge returns.
iii) Risk indifferent investors :
This category of investors are not concerned with the level of risk they take by investing money in a
particular investment avenue.
left, with the more desirable combinations being as indicated by the arrow, having higher returns and lower
risk.
The extent of an individual's risk aversion will be reflected in the slopes of the indifference curves. An
individual who is very highly risk averse will be prepared to sacrifice a large amount of return in order to
secure a small reduction in risk and will therefore have relatively steep indifference curves. A risk neutral
individual will have horizontal indifference curves. Indifference curves are used by experts for selection of
securities in the portfolio. Portfolio manager seeks to increase investor‟s satisfaction by proper selection of
securities.
There are two types of risks in a portfolio, systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk is the
fluctuation in an investment's return attributable to changes in broad economic, social, political sectors
which influence the return on investment of the portfolio. Therefore, systematic risk is undiversifiable risk
because the investors cannot avoid or reduce the risk arising from the above factors.
On the other hand, unsystematic risk is the variation in returns on investment due to factors related to the
individual company or security. It is that portion of total risk which arises from factors specific to a
particular company such as breakdown, labour strikes, shortage of materials, etc. It is possible to reduce
unsystematic risk by diversification of a portfolio.
(d) The diversification is proper which involves two or more companies or industries whose fortunes
fluctuate independent of one another or in different directions.
Diversification involves not putting all eggs into one basket. Thus, it is good to have as many companies or
avenues as possible in one's portfolio. However, this is a misconception as economies of scale operate in the
reverse direction with the result that monitoring and review of the portfolio becomes difficult and costly.
Markowitz emphasised the need for a right number of securities and the securities which are negatively
correlated or not correlated at all. Many of such risks can be reduced by a proper choice of companies and
industries. Neither random selection nor adequate number of securities can guarantee the purpose. For an
individual investor a number of 10 to 15 companies can be sufficient to secure reduction of risk to an
optimum level, if they are properly selected.
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS
1. Calculate the return in the following example:
A Ltd. (Rs.) B Ltd. (Rs.)
Price as on 31-3-2005 20 10
Price as on 31-3-2006 15 15
Dividend for the year 1 1
2. Mr. Ashok purchased 10 shares of ACC Ltd. four years ago at Rs. 50 each. The company paid the
following dividends.
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Dividend per Share (Rs.) 2 2 2.5 3
Dividend Amount (Rs.) 20 20 25 30
The current price of the share is Rs. 60. What rate of return has he earned on his investment if he sells the
shares now?
8. Mr. Abraham has a portfolio of five stocks. The expected return and amount invested in each stock is
given below:
Stocks Expected Amount
A 0.14
return 10,000
invested
B 0.08 20,000
C 0.15 30,000
D 0.09 15,000
E 0.12 25,000
Portfolio value 1,00,000
Compute the expected return on Mr. Abraham's portfolio.
9. Dr. Shah purchased 400 shares of Sundar Ltd. @ Rs. 61 each on 15th October, 2004. He paid brokerage
of Rs. 600. The company paid the following dividends:
June, 2005 Rs. 800
June, 2006 Rs. 1,000
11. Ashok purchased 100 shares of A Ltd. four years ago at Rs. 500 each. The rate of brokerage was 1%.
The Company paid the following dividends:
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Dividend per share (Rs.) 2 2 2.50 3
Dividend amount 200 200 250 300
The current price of the share is Rs. 600. What is the profit has be earned on his investment if he sells the
shares now?
13. Mr. Rajesh, a Fund Manager produced the following returns for the last five years. Rates of return on
Sensex are also given for comparison:
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Mr. Rajesh 6% 48% -15% 7% 11%
Sensex 12% 40% -6% 20% 3%
Calculate the average return and standard deviation of Mr. Rajesh's Mutual Fund. Did he do better or worse
than sensex by these measures?
14. Mr. Rajan wants to invest in company A or company B. The return on stock A and B and probabilities
are given below:
15. Mr. A has invested equal amount in Security X and Security Y. The expected returns during the boom
and depression with equal probability of occurrence are as under:
Economic Expected Returns of
Conditions Security X Security Y
Boom 6 12
Depression 15 5
Calculate expected return and standard deviation of each security.
17. Shankar has been considering an investment in stock X or Y. He has estimated the following probability
distribution of return of stock X and Y.
Return on Stock X Return on Stock Probability
-10 05
Y 10
0 10 25
10 15 40
20 20 20
30 25 05
Calculate the expected return and standard deviation of Stock X and Y and state which stock is worth
investing.
18. The following is the information of stock A and Stock B under the possible states of nature:
State of nature Probability Return „A‟ Return „B‟
1 0.10 5% 0%
2 0.30 10% 8%
3 0.50 15% 18%
4 0.10 20% 26%
19. Ramesh recently forecasted four economic situations which he believes are likely to occur with the
given probabilities. Based on these situations, an analyst made the following forecasts of the returns of stock
A, B and C.
Situation Probability (P) Conditional Returns %
A B C
High 0.20 -13 -4 -9
Low
growth 0.15 16 -2 8
Stagnation
growth 0.40 32 21 16
Recession 0.25 12 20 20
Calculate the mean return and standard deviation of stocks A, B and C and advise which stock is good for
investment.
20. Given below are the likely returns in case of shares of VCC Ltd. and LCC Ltd. in the various economic
conditions. Both the shares
Economic Probability Returns of Returns of
Conditions VCC Ltd. LCC Ltd.
High Growth 0.3 100 150
Low Growth 0.4 110 130
Stagnation 0.2 120 90
Recession 0.1 140 60
(1) Which of the two companies are risky investments?
(2) Mr. Suresh has three options for investing ? 1000.
(i) Only in shares of VCC Ltd.
(ii) Only in shares of LCC Ltd.
Which of the above options is the best? Why?
22. Mr. Anil purchased 2500 shares of JKL Ltd. @ Rs. 20 each (Face Value Rs. 5 per share) and paid
brokerage @ 2% on 01-01-2009. The company paid dividend @ 50% each year he sold all the shares at Rs.
25 each on 31-12-2010 and paid brokerage of Rs. 1,200.
The other investment alternative available to him was SBI fixed Deposit carrying interest @ 12%p.a.,
for year on compounded basis.
Was his decision to go for share investment right? Offer your comments with reasoning.
23. Mrs. Priya purchased 300 shares of ABC Ltd. @ Rs. 70 each on 9th Feb. 2009. She paid brokerage of
Rs. 500. She received dividend from the company as follows:
June 2009 Rs. 300
June 2010 Rs. 400
She sold all her holdings on 11th February 2011 for Rs. 27,000.
What is her holding period return?
(M.U. April 2012)
24. Ms. Snehal purchased 1000 shares of ABC Ltd. @ Rs. 100 each on 1st January, 2009. She paid a
brokerage of Rs. 500. During the year 2010 she received bonus shares of ABC Ltd. in the ratio of 3 : 5. She
also received dividends from the company as follows.
(M.U. Oct. 2012)
October 2009: Rs. 1500
October 2010: Rs. 750
She sold all her holdings in January 2011 @ Rs. 135 each. She had to pay a brokerage of Rs. 875. Calculate
the holding period return.
Following is the date relating to six securities select two securities for investment:
Security A B C D E F
Return (%) 8 8 12 4 9 ,8
Risk (S.D) (%) 4 5 12 4 5 6
Following is the date relating to six securities select two securities for investment:
Security M N O P Q R
Return (%) 10 10 12 15 11 10
Risk (S.D) (%) 6 4 12 15 7 3
Calculate Beta of Security X from the following information : SDx = 12% SDm = 9% and CORxm = +0.72
26. (Calculation of Beta from basic information (with probabilities) & Security Valuation using CAPM)
Calculate the beta factor of the following investment. Is acceptance of the investment worthwhile based
upon the level of risk? The risk free rate may be taken at 6%.
28. The standard deviation of returns of security Y is 20% and of market portfolio is 15%. Calculate beta of
security Y if (a) CORYM ~ +0.70; (b) CORYM = +0.40; (c) CORYM = - 0.25.
29. Compute the beta factors and expected returns for K Ltd. and M Ltd. Return on government securities is
8%. Return in earlier years is-
Year K Ltd. M Ltd. Market Return
1 10% 16% 12%
2 12% 14% 14%
3 15% 18% 20%
4 18% 20% 21%
30. Calculate the beta factor of the following investment. Is acceptance of the investment worthwhile based
upon the level of risk? The risk free rate may be taken at 8%.
Probability Returns on (%)
Market (M) Investment (K)
20 % 12 10
60 % 18 22
20 % 23 27
31. Mr. M invested his funds in five securities in the ratio of 0.20 : 0.30 : 0.20 : 0.20 : 0.10, these securities
had beta of 0.70, 0.85, 1.75, 1.45 & 1.80 respectively. Calculate portfolio beta.
5 O8 11
5 PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
PORTFOLIO
1) Portfolio means combined holding of many kinds of financial securities i.e. shares, debentures,
government bonds, units and other financial assets.
2) It is also a combination of securities with different risk-return characteristics. A portfolio is built up out
of the wealth or income of the investor over a period of time with a view to manage the risk-return
preferences.
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
1. Portfolio management means selection of securities and constant shifting of the portfolio in the light of
varying attractiveness of the constituents of the portfolio. It is a choice of selecting and revising spectrum of
securities to it in with the characteristics of an investor.
2. Management means utilisation of resources in the best possible manner. Portfolio management involves
maintaining a proper combination of securities which comprise the investor's portfolio in such a manner that
they give maximum return with minimum risk. This requires forming of a proper investment policy which is
a policy of formation of guidelines for allocation of available funds among the various types of securities.
3. A professional, who manages other people's or institution's investment portfolio with the object of
profitability, growth and risk minimization is known as a portfolio manager. He is expected to manage the
investor's assets prudently and choose particular investment avenues appropriate for particular times aiming
at maximization of profit. Portfolio management includes portfolio planning, selection and construction,
review and evaluation of securities. The skill in portfolio management lies in achieving a sound balance
between the objectives of safety, liquidity and profitability.
(c) Liquidity:
An investment is a liquid asset. It can be converted into cash with the help of a stock exchange. Investment
should be liquid as well as marketable. The portfolio should contain a planned proportion of high-grade and
readily salable investment.
(d) Safety:
Safety means protection for investment against loss under reasonably variations. In order to provide safety,
a careful review of economic and industry trends is necessary. In other words, errors in portfolio are
unavoidable and it requires extensive diversification. Even investor wants that his basic amount of
investment should remain safe.
(f) Diversification:
In order to provide safety a careful review of economic and industry is necessary. In other words, errors in
portfolio are unavoidable and it requires extensive diversifivcation. Even investor wants that his basic
amount of investment is safe by investing in various types of securities over a wide range of options.
(g) Marketability:
It means the ease with the security can be bought and sold. It is essential for providing flexibility to
investment portfolio.
2. EXECUTION :
After planning stage, execution of the plan is the next stage.
This consists of these decisions:
a) Portfolio Selection :
Here, specific assets are chosen for the client keeping in mind capital market expectations and asset
allocation strategy. Generally, the portfolio managers use the portfolio optimization technique
while deciding the portfolio composition.
b) Portfolio Implementation :
Once the composition of portfolio is finalized, the portfolio is executed. Here, transaction cost should be
kept in check as higher cost may lead to lower portfolio returns. Transaction costs include both explicit costs
like taxes, fees, commissions, etc. and implicit costs like opportunity costs, etc. Hence, the execution of the
portfolio needs to be appropriately timed and well-managed.
3. FEEDBACK :
Regular feedback of client should be taken to understand changing needs of client and to achiee long term
goals set in consolation with the client. Following two activities are undertaken with the help of regular
client feedback.
a) Monitoring and Rebalancing :
The portfolio manager needs to monitor j and evaluate risk exposures of the portfolio and compares it with
the strategic asset allocation. This is required to ensure that investment objectives and constraints are being
achieved. The manager monitors the investor‟s circumstances, economic fundamentals and market
conditions. Portfolio rebalancing should also consider taxes and transaction costs.
b) Performance Evaluation :
The investment performance of the portfolio must be evaluated regularly to measure the achievement of
objectives and the skill of the portfolio manager. Both absolute returns and relative returns can be used as a
measure of performance while analysing the performance of the portfolio.
These investments are made for the purpose of emotional security and satisfaction. Investors get some
satisfaction from these investments. For example, investment made in house property, jewellery, household
appliances etc.
much income must be provided by the portfolio of securities. As inflation is a fact of life, it is necessary to
estimate its impact and attempt to provide a stream of income from a securities portfolio that offsets it, as
well as possible.
(3) Taxation:
There may be strong incentive for many investors in the high tax brackets to invest in tax-exempt securities
rather than common stock. It offers investors to combine a high effective yield with relatively low risk.
Those investors who qualify tax-exempt securities may constitute a worthwhile investment.
(4) Temperament:
A higher return may be expected from a well- diversified portfolio of common stock than a portfolio of
bonds, some investors may not be willing to accept the greater risk associated with common stock. Thus,
temperament is the most important principle on the formulation of portfolio objectives. It indicates the
investor's willingness to accept risk. Some investors are able to accept risk. Common stock prices are
volatile. Investors who find these volatility disturbing, may not have the temperament for common stock
investment. Temperament may be the overriding constraint in arriving at an appropriate portfolio policy for
the investor.
(b) Risk:
Risk is the chance of loss due to variability of returns on an investment. In case of every investment, there is
a chance of loss. It may be loss of interest, dividend or principal amount of investment. However, risk and
return are inseparable. Return is a precise statistical term and it is measurable. But the risk is not precise
statistical term. However, the risk can be quantified. The investment process should be considered in terms
of both risk and return.
(c) Time:
Time is an important factor in investment. It offers several different courses of action. Time period depends
on the attitude of the investor who follows a 'buy and hold' Policy. As time moves on, analysts believe that
conditions may change and investors may revaluate expected return and risk for each investment.
(d) Liquidity:
Liquidity is also important factor to be considered while making an investment. Liquidity refers to the
ability of an investment to be converted into cash as and when required. The investor wants his money back
any time. Therefore, the investment should provide liquidity to the investor.
portfolio is not allowed to decline. For example, an investor who wishes to establish a minimum standard of
living during retirement might find an insured asset allocation strategy ideally suited to his or her
management goals.
6 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is a method of finding out the future price of a security which an investor wants to
buy. The objective of fundamental analysis is to appraise the 'intrinsic value' of a security.
There is an intrinsic value for each security and it can be determined by making an analysis of the
fundamental factors relating to the company, industry and economy. At any given point of time, the current
market price of a security can be different from its intrinsic value due to the temporary market conditions.
An investor can buy undervalued securities and sell overvalued securities. Thus, the intrinsic value of a
security should be determined for this purpose.
INTRINSIC VALUE
The intrinsic value of a security is that value which is justified by the facts such as assets, earnings,
dividends and prospects of the company. It is also measured as the present value of all future cash inflows
on the security i.e. dividends interest, capital gain, bonus, rights, etc. The fundamental analysis can
determine the intrinsic value of a security by discounting the prospective dividend using the rate of return
required by the investor as the discount rate. The prospective dividend or interest stream depends upon the
economic and industrial environment in the country.
1. MACRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
It is very important to assess the state of the economy for the purpose of making investments. If a recession
is likely, or undergoing, the stock market is affected at certain times. On the other hand, if a strong
economic expansion is undergoing, the stock market is also affected at certain times. This status of an
economic activity has a major impact on overall stock market. Therefore, it is very important for the
investors to assess the state of the economy and its impact on the stock market.
Investment in debt as well as ownership securities is closely associated with the economic activity of the
country. An investment in the equity shares of a company is likely to be more profitable, if the economy is
strong and growing. The growth of a company depends basically on its ability to satisfy human wants
through production of goods or creation and supply of services. All the companies cannot grow at the same
rate and at the same time. If the national economy is declining, the investment in debt or equity will be
seriously considered. In this situation, greater attention should be given to fixed income obligations.
Some of the Macroeconomic variables are :
1. Monsoon & Agriculture
It is an important indicator, as adequate and timely rainfall normally results in enough food crops and raw
material for industries and also generation of hydro-electric power. This leads to stable prices and
profitability for the company and more funds in the hands of investors to invest in companies and eventually
more income for the company. On the other hand, drought/floods leads to shortage of food and raw material
in turn increased prices and lower profits for the company.
2. GDP
The Gross Domestic Product is the value of all the goods and services produced in an economy; it is
considered the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic performance of the economy as
it contains all economic activities during the reference period. The rate of growth of GDP is compared with
past growth rates to indicate the general direction of the economy. A higher GDP indicates positive growth
prospects.
3. Inflation
Inflation leads to increase in prices of commodities in the economy and hence less funds at the disposal of
investors to save and invest, this in turn leads to reduction in demand for various investments, this in turn
leads to reduction in share price of the company. On the other hand with high inflation the company also
faces increased manufacturing cost again leading to reduction in profits. Inflation can be judged by
analysing Wholesale Price Index (WPI), this index measures the price of goods at the wholesale level i.e.
how much produces are receiving from goods.
4. Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy refers to government‟s spending and tax action and is part of demand-side management. It is
the most direct way to influence the economy. For example, when the government increases spending, it
creates more demand in the economy and similarly when the government reduces spending, it causes slow
down in the economy. It must be noted that government is a major buyer of several core sector products.
This also affects the company in form of change in its product demand.
5. Monetary Policy
Monetary policy, in the form of changing CRR and SLR is also demand side management of economy. The
RBI adjusts the money supply through variety of policies and thus influences the economy and cash at the
disposal of companies and banks to be used in business.
Some other variables are Government Policy, political stability, etc.
2. Investment climate can be studied from GNP and its components. GNP stands for Gross National
Product. It is the broadest measure of economic activity. It represents the aggregate amount of goods and
services produced in the economy for a period of time.
3. The analyst has also to study the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Domestic Savings and Gross
Domestic Capital formation. These factors must be favourable at the time of making investments. The
economic environment also includes credit policy, exim policy, foreign investment policy, policies to
encourage investment in infrastructure, investor protection and industrial policy of the country.
4. The investor has to make an analysis of the economy in order to determine his investment strategy. The
important thing is to identify the trends in the economy and adjust his investment portfolio accordingly. The
forecasts are also published in the newspapers, magazines and bulletins. They provide necessary perspective
to the investors.
5. An investor has to make his own economic forecasts. If the economy is expected to increase in real terms
next year, the stock market should be expected to improve accordingly. Inflation and price increase are also
important.
6. A real growth of GNP without inflation is desirable. A high rate of inflation will have adverse effect on
the stock market. A deficit in trade and balance of payments position of the country depreciate the currency
in foreign exchange markets and it will have negative impact on the economy and stock market.
7. An examination of interest rates, corporate profits, employment generation, housing, agriculture and other
economic variables will give an investor an easy reference in interpreting and assessing the direction of the
economy and stock market.
3. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
1. Industry analysis is the study of industries which are on the upswing or growing. The ideal investment is
the investment in the growing industry. There are certain industries which have been growing in India. The
recent examples are of entertainment and computer softwares. The petrochemicals, bio-technology and
capital goods industries are also growing. Investment in these industries will definitely gain in future.
2. The investor should know the industry classification used in the economy. It is also necessary to know the
characteristics, problems and practices in different industries. There is also need to study the present and
future developments, operating features, seasonal variations and competitiveness in order to establish the
proper perspective.
3. A careful analysis of growth of industries will help to select few industries for investment. In recent times
growth of industries has been affected due to technological changes, competitive pressure, population, etc.
The competitive position of industries is also affected due to high labour costs, change in social habits,
Government regulations and automation.
4. An investor should select few industries that are in the expansion stage. Investment should not be made in
the industries which are in the pioneering stage. Similarly, industries that are in the stagnation stage or
declining in economic importance should be avoided. Investors should select such industries which have
developed a strong competitive position. It is difficult to identify a good industry for investment. However
an attempt to analyze all the above factors should be made by an investor.
4. COMPANY ANALYSIS
The industry analysis helps to select few industries for investment in securities. There are many companies
in an industry. For example, if an investor wants to invest in computer software industry, then he has to
select few companies from that industry. There are thousands of listed companies from computer software
industry. Therefore, an investor has to select few companies for investment.
A company analysis is a study of the variables which influence the future price of a company's share. It is an
assessment of company's competitive position, earning capacity and profitability. It is a method of finding
out the intrinsic value of a company's share.
This requires internal as well as external information of the company. Internal information consists of data
and events of the company which is available from its financial statements. External information consists of
demand, supply, competitors, pricing, market share, etc. which can be obtained from industry associations,
chambers of commerce, Government departments and stock exchange bulletins.
The basic financial statements which are used as tools of company analysis are the income statement, the
balance sheet and the statement of changes in financial position. While making company analysis, investors
should carefully judge that these statements are correct, complete, consistent and comparable. The accuracy
of the financial statements can be identified from the report of the auditors.
The most frequently used tools for company analysis are as follows:
(1) Ratio Analysis.
(2) Trend Analysis.
(3) Funds Flow Analysis.
(4) Common Size Statement Analysis.
(5) Technical Analysis.
BALANCE SHEET
Investors often overlook the balance sheet. Assets and liabilities aren't nearly as attractive as revenue and
earnings. While earnings are important, they don't tell the whole story. The balance sheet highlights the
financial condition of a company and is an integral part of the financial statements.
The balance sheet, also known as the statement of financial condition, offers a snapshot of a company's
health. It tells you how much a company owns (its assets), and how much it owes (its liabilities). The
difference between what it owns and what it owes is its equity, also commonly called "net assets" or
"shareholders equity". The balance sheet tells investors a lot about a company's fundamentals : how much
debt the company has, how much it needs to collect from customers (and how fast it does so), how much
cash and equivalents it possesses and what kinds of funds the company has generated over time.
INCOME STATEMENT
The Income statement is a summary of the income and outgo of a business in terms of rupees over a
specified period of time with a residual showing of net income. It discloses the revenue realised from the
sale of goods and the costs incurred in the process of producing the scheme. It tells a story of progress or
decline over given period and why and how an indicated result was achieved. An analysis of income
statement is helpful in knowing profitability of the concern both with reference to sales as well as with
reference to capital invested.
RATIO ANALYSIS
Ratio analysis is the systematic process of determining and interpreting the numerical relationship of various
pairs of items derived from the financial statements of a business. Absolute figures of any aspect of business
may not convey any tangible meaning. Hence it is one of the most important tools of financial statement
analysis. It is the principal technique used in judging the condition disclosed by the financial statements. It
is a process of computing, determining, and presenting the relationship between items or groups in the
financial statements. It helps in appraisal of financial conditions, efficiency and profitability of a firm.
A ratio is simply one number expressed in terms of another. It is a statistical yardstick that provides a
measure of the relationship between figures. The relationship can be expressed as a percent or as a quotient.
An accounting ratio expresses the relationship between two figures or group of items in the financial
statements. Ratio analysis is a useful tool of financial appraisal at macro level as well as micro levels.
However, their use depends on the user and the purpose. There are no standard ratios applicable to all
purposes. Certain ratios are useful at micro level while others are useful at macro level. We are concerned
here more with the macro analysis.
All current assets except inventories and prepaid expenses are known as liquid assets. Similarly, all current
liabilities except bank overdraft are treated as liquid liabilities. Normally, liquid ratio of 1:1 is indicative of
a firm having a good short-term liquidity. Booth the current and liquid ratios must be considered together in
order to test the short-term financial strength and immediate solvency of a firm.
It is calculated for each accounting period. If the interest coverage ratio is high, that means the firm can
easily meet its interest burden even if the profit before interest and faxes suffer a considerable decline. On
the other hand, a low interest coverage ratio may result in financial difficulties when profits before interest
and taxes decline.
The net working capital turnover is a direct measure of the company's productivity in generating sales. It is
calculated as follows:
This ratio also indicates the extent of 'trading on equity' which means taking advantage of equity capital to
borrowed capital on reasonable basis. It is the arrangement of using borrowed funds carrying a fixed rate of
interest in such a way so as to increase the rate of return on the equity shares. A company which is
highly geared has greater prospects of higher profits.
4. In case of inter firm comparison comparative statements may not give accurate information due to
different accounting policies followed by different companies.
COMMON-SIZE STATEMENT
Common-size statement is a financial tool of studying key changes and trends in financial position of a
company. In common-size statement each item is broken down as a percentage of the total of which that
item is a part. Each percentage exhibits the relation of the individual item to its respective total [i.e. sales or
capital employed]. Therefore, the common-size percentage method repre¬sents a type of ratio analysis. This
is why this statement is also designated as "component percentage" or "100 percent statement".
Preparation of the common-size statement involves two steps :
i) State the total of the statement as 100 per cent;
ii) Compute the ratio of each statement item to the statement total.
There are two types of common-size statements, Common-size Balance Sheet and common-size Profits and
Loss Account.
TREND ANALYSIS
This method of analysis studies the percentage relationship that each item of the financial statement bears to
the same item in the base year. Through this analysis the analyst seeks to review changes that have taken
place in individual categories therein from year to year and over the years. Thus, trend analysis can take the
form of year-to-year comparisons, index number, trend series and trend ratio.
Under this method analysis trend in respect of certain financial items is studied by computing the year-to-
year change in absolute terms or in terms of percentages. In this method, the base year changes every year.
In order to calculate a series of index number a base year should be chosen. This base year will, for all items
have an index amount of? 100. In choosing the base year, the analyst should see that a normal year, in which
abnormal events have not taken place, is chosen. Index numbers of an item for different years are computed
by reference to the base year. If the value of the item in a year is less than that in the base year, the trend
percentage will be below 100 per cent if the amount is more than the base amount, the trend percentage will
be above 100 per cent.
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS
1. The Capital of ABC Ltd. consists of 9% Preference Shares of Rs.10 each, Rs. 3,00,000, Equity Shares of
Rs. 10 each, Rs. 8,00,000. The profit after tax is Rs. 2,70,000, Equity Dividend is 20% and market price of
Equity Shares Rs. 40. You are required to calculate following ratios and comment on them, (a) Dividend
Yield,
(b) Preference & Equity Dividend Cover, (c) Earnings Per Share and (d) Price-Eamings Ratio.
2. Following information is available relating to Beena Ltd. and Meena Ltd: (All Rs. in Lakhs)
Beena Ltd. Meena Ltd.
Equity share capital (Rs. 10) 200 250
12% preference shares 80 100
Profit after tax 50 70
Proposed dividend 35 40
Market price per share Rs. 25 Rs. 35
You are required to calculate:
(i) Earning per share, (ii) P/E Ratio, (lii) Dividend Payout Ratio, (iv) Return on Equity Shares.
As an analyst, advice the investor which of the two companies is worth investing.
3. M/s. Green a Blue Ltd. has presented its financial information for year 2006 as follows:
Balance Sheet on 31st March, 2006
Liabilities Amount (Rs.) Assets Amount (Rs.)
Share Capital 12,00,000 Fixed Assets 28,60,000
Reserves and Surplus Long 8,00,000 Stock in Hand 19,80,000
Term Debt 22,70,000 S. Debtors 16,50,000
Current Liabilities 23,50,000 Cash and Bank Balance 1,30,000
66,20,000 66,20,000
Total Total
Income Statement for the ended 31st March, 2006
Amount (Rs.)
Net Sales 1,02,00,000
Cost of Goods Sold 79,20,000
Selling and Administrative Expenses 79,20,000
Net Profit 15,45,6000
Tax Rate is 30%. Company's Capital is divided in 1,20,000 shares of Rs. 10 each
7,34,400
Company has declared dividend @ 25%
Market Price of the share is Rs. 50
You are required to evaluate investment in Company on
basis of:
(i) Dividend Yield. (ii) EPS. (iii) P/E ratio. (iv) ROCE.
4.
Particulars A Ltd. B Ltd.
5. Veena Ltd. has presented its financial information for the year ended 31st March 2007.
Earnings before interest and taxes Rs. 8,00,000
1,0,000 Equity shares of Rs. 10 each Rs. 10,00,000
10% Debentures Rs. 15,00,000
Reserve and surplus (before adjustments) Rs. 5,00,000
Provision for taxation 30%
Proposed Dividend 20%
Market price per share Rs. 32
Calculate (i) EPS (ii) P/E Ratio (iii) Book Value per share and (iv) Dividend Yield and state whether
investment in Veena Ltd. Is advisable.
6. Triveni Industries Ltd. gives you the following information for the year ended 31st March 2008:
Profit before interest and taxes Rs. 16,50,000
Tax Rate 30%
Proposed Equity Dividend 25%
Capital Employed
10% Preference Share Capital Rs. 15,00,000
80000 Equity Shares of Rs. 10 each Rs. 8,00,000
15% Debentures of Rs. 100 each Rs. 7,00,000
Reserve and Surplus Rs. 12,00,000
Current Market Price per Equity Share Rs. 50
You are required to calculate:
(i) Earning Per Share.
(ii) Price Earning Ratio.
(iii) Dividend Payout Ratio.
(iv) Dividend Yield.
(v) Book Value per Share and state whether it is worth investing in the Equity Shares of the Company.
7. The following information is available in respect of two listed companies namely Jay Ltd and Vijay Ltd.
Particulars Jay Ltd. Vi jay Ltd.
Equity share capital (? 10 each) Rs. 800 Lacs Rs. 1,000 Lacs
12% Pref. Shares Capital Rs. 100 Lacs Rs. 200 Lacs
Profit before Tax Rs. 400 Lacs Rs. 600 Lacs
Rate of Taxation 30% 30%
Dividend per Share Rs. 3 Rs. 2
Market Price Per Share Rs. 150 Rs. 120
You are required to calculate:
(a) Earning Per share, (b) P/E Ratio.
(c) Dividend Payout Ratio, (d) Return on Total Capital.
Also advice as to which company should be preferred for investing in.
9. Following is the Balance Sheet of Tanmay Enterprises Ltd. as on 31st Balance sheet as on 31st March,
2011
Liabilities Rs. Assets Rs.
8% Preference Share 56,000 Fixed Assets 3,38,000
Capital
Equity Share Capital 1,00,000 Investments 39,000
Reserves 1,04,000 Cash 13,000
10. The standard ratios of the industry and ratios of company A are given below:
Give your comments on the performance of the company:
Industry Company A
Standard
Net Profit Ratio 3.5% 2%
Current Ratio 2.5 3.00
Liquidity Ratio 1.5 2.4
Proprietory Ratio 0.70 0.97
Debtors Turnover Ratio 37 days 42 days
14. The following information is taken from the records of two companies in the same industry:
Equity capital 11 18
Reserves and surplus 10 5
Total Liabilities 35 43
Sales 60 85
Cost of goods sold 40 65
Other operating expenses 8 10
Interest expenses 0.60 1.20
Income tax 3.40 3.80
Dividend 1.00 2.00
Answer each of the following questions by making a comparison of one or more relevant ratios.
(a) Which company is using the shareholders money more profitably?
(b) Which company is better able to meet its current debt?
(c) If you want to purchase the debentures of one company which company's debentures would you buy?
(d) Which company collects its receivables faster assuming all sales are on credit basis?
(e) Which company retains the larger proportion of income in the business?
Solution:
(a) Return on shareholder‟s fund should be used to know the use of shareholder‟s money more profitably.
(b) You are required to calculate Return on Investment from the following details of Rahul Ltd. for the
year ended 31st March 2001.
Rs. in lakhs
Net Profit After Tax 65
Rate of Income Tax 50%
12.5 Convertible Debentures of Rs. 80
100
89 | P a g e EDUWIZ MANAGEMENT EDUCATION
TYBMS INVESTMENT ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SEM V
(c) Fine Products Ltd presents the following Balance Sheet as on 31-3-2001:
Liabilities Rs. Assets Rs.
Equity Share Capital 50 Fixed Assets 120
14% Debenture (Due on 31-3-2002) 20 Less: Depreciation 30
General Reserve 10 90
P & L Account 5 Stock 13
Sundry Creditors 35 Debtors 16
Cash at Bank 1
120 120
Comment upon the following ratios of Fine Products Ltd.:
(i) Current Ratio.
(ii) Quick Ratio.
(iii) Fixed Assets Net Worth Ratio.
(d) M/s. Jupiter Ltd intends to supply goods on credit to M/s. Pluto Ltd and Mars Ltd. The relevant details
for the year ending 31st March 2001 are as follows:
(Rs. in lakhs)
Pluto Ltd Mars Ltd
Trade Creditors 30 16
Trade Purchases 93 66
Cash Purchases 3 2
Advise with reasons as to which company he should prefer to deal with.
Solution:
(a) (i) Decrease the debt-equity ratio. Profit on sale of land will increase the reserve (equity).
(ii) Decrease the debt equity ratio. Equity will increase.
(iii) Debt equity ratio will remain unchanged. Current assets are exchanged.
(iv) Decrease in debt equity ratio. There will be reduction in debt.
(v) Debt equity ratio will remain unchanged. Only exchange of current liabilities.
17. Mr. A buys 100 equity shares of Beta Ltd. at Rs. 120 having face value of Rs. 10 per share on 15th
January 98. After a year he expects:
(i) Dividend of 20%
(ii) Market price of the share will be Rs. 140.
Calculate:
(1) Dividend Yield.
(2) Actual Rate of Return.
18. The Balance Sheet of Major Ltd as on 31st March 2005 is as under:
Liabilities Rs. Assets Rs.
2,000 Equity shares of Rs. 100 2,00,000 Fixed Assets at Cost 5,00,000 3,40,000
each fully paid Less: Depreciation 1,60,000
7.5% Preference Shares 1,00,000 Current Assets:
General Reserve 60,000 Stock 60,000
12% Debentures 60,000 Debtors 80,000
Current Liabilities: Bank 20,000
Sundry Creditors 80,000
5,00,000 5,00,000
The Company wishes to forecast balance sheet as on 31st March 2006. The following additional particulars
are available:
(a) Fixed Assets costing Rs. 1,00,000 have been installed on 1st April 2005 but the payments will be
made on 31st March 2006.
(b) The fixed assets turnover ratio on the basis of the gross value of fixed assets would be 1.5.
(c) The stock turnover ratio would be 14.4 (calculated on the basis of the average stock)
(d) The break up of cost and the profit would be as follows:
Material 40%
Labour 25%
Manufacturing Expenses 10%
Office and Selling Expensesl0%
Depreciation Profit
The profit is subject to interest and tax at
(e) Debtors would be 1/9 of sales.
(f) Creditors would be 1/5 of materials consumed.
(g) In March 2006, a dividend @ 10% on equity capital would be paid.
(h) 12% Debentures for Rs. 25,000 have been issued on 1st April 2005.
Prepare the forecast balance sheet as on 31st March 2006 and show the following ratios: (i) Current Ratio,
(ii) Fixed Assets/Net Worth Ratio (iii) Debt Equity Ratio (iv) P/E Ratio if market price is Rs. 750 per share.
19. The following are the final accounts of Shansuddin International Ltd. for the year ended 31st March,
2006 and 2007.
Balance Sheet as on
Liabilities 2006 2007 Assets 2006 2007
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
Equity Share of Rs. 10/- 2,32,570 2,39,150 Fixed Assets net 2,68,210 4,11,520
each fully Paid up block
8% Preference Shares of (-) 32,650 Stock at Cost 68,690 2,32,820
Rs. Each fully Paid up
General Reserve 1,61,560 2,13,430 Book of Debts 1,92,500 2,90,530
Profit and Loss A/c 62,280 82,050 Prepaid Expenses 4,150 6,640
8% Debentures of Rs. 100 92,500 3,20,000 Bank 1,04,360 1,18,430
each
Sundry Creditors 53,370 1,03,680
Other Current Liabilities 35,630 68,980
6,37,910 10,59,940 6,37,910 10,59,940
Revenue Statement
Liabilities 2006 2007 Assets 2006 2007
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.
Cost of Sales 6,07,760 12,84,340 Sales 9,19,540 19,32,130
Gross Profit 3,11,780 6,47,790
9,19,540 19,32,130 9,19,540 19,32,130
Administration Exp. 90,110 1.83.000 Gross Profit 3,11,780 6,47,790
Selling Expenses 90,000 179,000 Discount 2,730 9,560
Interest 7,400 25,600
Provision for Tax 69,340 1,47,120
Transfer to Reserve 40,000 50,000
Net Income 17,660 72,630
7 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analysing the statistical data generated by market
activity, such as past prices and volume of trading of a particular share. Technical analysts do not attempt to
measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can
suggest future activity.
CHARTING TECHNIQUES
There are four main types of charts that are used by investors and traders depending on the information that
they are seeking and their individual skill levels.
The chart types/ Charting Techniques are :
a) The line chart,
b) The bar chart,
c) The candlestick chart and
A) LINE CHART
Line charts represents only the closing prices over a set period of time and are therefore the most simple of
the four charts. Line charts do not provide visual information of the trading range for the individual points
such as the high, low and opening prices. But, the closing price is often considered to be the most vital price
in stock data compared to the high and low for the day and this is why it is the only value used in line charts.
B) BAR CHART
The bar chart is an extension of line chart in a sense that it adds much more key information to each data
point. The chart is made up of a series of vertical lines that represent each data point. This vertical line
represents the high and low for the trading period, along with the closing price. The close and open are
represented on the vertical line by a horizontal dash. The opening price on a bar chart is denoted by the dash
that is located on the left side of the vertical bar. As against this, the close is represented by the dash on the
right. Generally, if the left dash (open) is lower than the right dash (close) then the bar will be shaded black,
representing an upward movement of the stock, which means it has gained value. When this is the case, the
dash on the right (close) is lower than the dash on the left (open).
When first looking at a point and figure chart, you will notice a series of Xs and Os. The Xs represent
upward price trends and the Os represent downward price trends. There are also numbers and letters in the
chart; these represent months, and give investors an idea of the date. Each box on the chart represents the
price scale, which adjusts depending on the price of the stock: the higher the stock's price the more each box
represents.
TRENDS
Trend is one of the most important concepts in technical analysis. A trend is really nothing more than the
general direction in which a security or market is headed. Take a look at the chart below, anyone can
conclude that trend is up.
However, it's not always this easy to see a trend for example in the next figure, there is lot of opposite
movement i.e. ups and downs in this chart and there isn't a clear indication of which direction this security is
headed.
Regrettably, trends are not always easy to see. In simple words, defining a trend goes well beyond what is
normally visible to eyes. You will probably notice that in any given chart, prices do not tend to move in a
straight line in any particular direction, but rather it moves in a series of highs and lows. It is the movement
of these highs and lows that constitutes a trend in technical analysis. For example, a downtrend is one of
lower lows and lower highs while an uptrend is classified as a series of higher highs and higher lows.
TYPES OF TREND
There are three types of trend :
i) Up trends
ii) Downtrends
iii) Sideways/Horizontal Trends
As the names imply, when each successive peak and trough is higher, it's referred to as an upward trend. If
the peaks and troughs are getting lower, it's a downtrend. When there is little movement up or down in the
peaks and troughs, it's a sideways or horizontal trend. If you want to get really technical, you might even say
that a sideways trend is actually not a trend on its own, but a lack of a well-defined trend in either direction.
In any case, the market can really only trend in these three ways: up, down or nowhere.
Uptrend
TREND LENGTHS
An up trend, down trend or horizontal trend can continue for long time period, short time period or
intermediate time period, accordingly a trend of any direction can be classified as a long-term trend,
intermediate trend or a short term trend. In terms of the stock market, a major trend is generally categorized
as one lasting longer than 12 months. An intermediate trend is considered to last between one month to a
quarter of a year and a near-term trend is anything less than a month. A long-term trend is composed of
several intermediate trends, which often move against the direction of the major trend. If the major trend is
upward and there is a downward correction in price movement followed by a continuation of the uptrend,
the correction is considered to be an intermediate trend. The short-term trends are components of both major
and intermediate trends.
TRENDLINES
A trendline is a simple charting technique that adds a line to a chart to represent the trend in the market or a
stock. Drawing a trendline is as simple as drawing a straight line that follows a general trend. These lines
are used to clearly show the trend and are also used in the identification of trend reversals. An upward
trendline is drawn at the lows of an upward trend. This line represents the support the stock has every time it
moves from a high to a low. Similarly, a downward trendline is drawn at the highs of the downward trend.
This line represents the resistance level that a stock faces every time the price moves from a low to a high.
The diagram below shows an upward trendline.
CHANNELS
A channel, or channel lines, is the addition of two parallel trendlines that act as strong areas of support and
resistance. The upper trendline connects a series of highs, while the lower trendline connects a series of
lows. A channel can slope upward, downward or sideways but, regardless of the direction, the interpretation
remains the same. Traders will expect a given security to trade between the two levels of support and
resistance until it breaks beyond one of the levels, in which case traders can expect a sharp move in the
direction of the break. Along with clearly displaying the trend, channels are mainly used to illustrate
important areas of support and resistance.
The next diagram shows a descending channel on a stock chart; the upper trendline has been placed on the
highs and the lower trendline is on the lows. As long as the price does not fall below the lower line or move
beyond the upper resistance, the range-bound downtrend is expected to continue.
ROLE REVERSAL
Role reversal refers to a situation where the role of support or resistance level is reversed, this happens when
a resistance or support level is broken. If the price falls below a support level, that level will become
resistance. If the price rises above a resistance level, it will often become support. For a true reversal to
occur, it is important that the price make a strong move through either the support or resistance.
For example, as you can see in the next figure, the dotted line is shown as a level of resistance that has
prevented the price from heading higher on two previous occasions (Points 1 and 2). However, once the
resistance is broken, it becomes a level of support (shown by Points 3 and 4) by pushing up the price and
preventing it from heading lower again.
Head and shoulders top is shown on the left. Head and shoulders bottom, or inverse head and shoulders, is
on the right
As can be seen from Figure, this price pattern forms what looks like a cup, which is preceded by an upward
trend. The handle follows the cup formation and is formed by a generally downward/sideways movement in
the security's price. Once the price movement pushes above the resistance lines formed in the handle, the
upward trend can continue.
Double top pattern is shown on the left, while a double bottom pattern is shown on the right.
In the case of the double top pattern in Figure, the price movement has twice tried to move above a certain
price level. After two unsuccessful attempts at pushing the price higher, the trend reverses and the price
heads lower. In the case of a double bottom (shown on the right), the price movement has tried to go lower
twice, but has found support each time. After the second bounce off of the support, the security enters a new
trend and heads upward.
TRIANGLES
Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in technical analysis. Symmetrical triangle,
ascending and descending triangle are the three types of triangles, which vary in the way they are
constructed and what they imply. These chart patterns are considered to last anywhere from a forth night to
several months.
The symmetrical triangle in Figure is a pattern in which two trendlines converge toward each other. This
pattern is neutral in that a breakout to the upside or downside is a confirmation of a trend in that direction. In
an ascending triangle, the upper trendline is flat, while the bottom trendline is upward sloping which
indicates that the stock has breached its support level more often in the past therefore shows an upward
trend, accordingly once it breaches its resistance level it indicates a trend reversal. This is generally thought
of as a bullish pattern in which chartists look for an upside breakout. The opposite of this happens in a
descending triangle, the lower trendline is flat and the upper trendline is descending. This is generally seen
as a bearish pattern where chartists look for a downside breakout.
As can be seen from Figure, there is little difference between a pennant and a flag. The main difference
between these price movements can be seen in the middle section of the chart pattern. In a pennant, the
middle section is characterised by converging trendlines, much like what is seen in a symmetrical triangle.
The middle section on the flag pattern, on the other hand, shows a channel pattern, with no convergence
between the trendlines. In both cases, the trend is expected to continue when the price moves above the
upper trendline.
WEDGE
The wedge chart pattern can be either a continuation or reversal pattern. It is similar to a symmetrical
triangle except that the wedge pattern slants in an upward or downward direction, while the symmetrical
triangle generally shows a sideways movement. The other difference is that wedges tend to form over longer
periods, usually between three and six months.
At the most basic level, a falling wedge is bullish and a rising wedge is bearish. In Figure, we have a falling
wedge in which two trendlines are converging in a downward direction. If the price was to rise above the
upper trendline, it would form a continuation pattern, while a move below the lower trendline would signal
a reversal pattern.
Triple tops and bottoms can lead to confusion during the formation of the pattern because they can look
similar to other chart patterns. After the first two support/resistance tests are formed in the price movement,
the pattern will look like a double top or bottom, which could lead a chartist to enter a reversal position too
soon.
ROUNDING BOTTOM
A rounding bottom, also referred to as a saucer bottom, is a long-term reversal pattern which signals a shift
from a downward trend to an upward trend. This pattern is traditionally thought to last anywhere from
several months to several years.
A rounding bottom chart pattern looks similar to a cup and handle pattern but without the handle. The long-
term nature of this pattern and the lack of a confirmation trigger, such as the handle in the cup and handle
make it a difficult pattern to trade.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
There are numerous technical indicators that collectively add up to organized confusion. But when one
examines the technical indicators individually, it makes some sense. The following are some of the technical
indicators:
♦ The short interest ratio theory.
♦ Confidence Index.
♦ Spreads.
The tools used by the mathematical trading methods are moving averages and oscillators. Oscillators are
trading tools that offer indications of when a currency is overbought or oversold. Though there are many
mathematical indicators, only the most important ones and commonly used are discussed below.
(1) Simple and Exponential Moving Average (SMA - EMA).
(2) Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).
(3) Bollinger Bands.
(4) The Parabolic System, Stop-and-Reverse (SAR).
(5) RSI (Relative Strength Index).
MOVING AVERAGE
A moving average is an average of a shifting body of prices calculated over a given number of days. A
moving average makes it easier to visualize market trends as it removes - or at least minimizes - daily
statistical noise. It is a common tool in technical analysis and is used either by itself or as an oscillator.
There are several types of moving averages, but discussed below are important and commonly used: the
simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA).
Advantages:
Moving average is a smoothing tool that shows the basic trend of the market. It is one of the best ways to
gauge the strength a long-term trend and the likelihood that it will reverse. When a moving average is
heading upward and the price is above it, the security is in an uptrend. Conversely, a downward sloping
moving average with the price below can be used to signal a downtrend.
Drawbacks:
It is a follower rather than a leader. Its signals occur after the new movement, event, or trend has started, not
before. Therefore it could lead you to enter trade some late. It is criticized for giving equal weight to each
interval. Some analysts believe that a heavier weight should be given to the more recent price action.
Advantages:
Because it gives the most weight to the most recent observations, EMA enables technical traders to react
faster to recent price change. In comparison to Simple Moving Average, every previous price in the data set
is used in the calculation of EMA. While the impact of older data points diminishes over time, it never fully
disappears. This is true regardless of the EMA's specified period. The effects of older data diminish rapidly
for shorter EM As than for longer ones Because it gives the most weight to the most recent observations,
EMA enables technical traders to react faster to recent price change. In comparison to Simple Moving
Average, every previous price in the data set is used in the calculation of EMA. While the impact of older
data points diminishes over time, it never fully disappears. This is true regardless of the EMA's specified
period. The effects of older data diminish rapidly for shorter EM As than for longer ones but, again, they
never completely disappear.
4. Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands were developed by John Bollinger in the early 1980s. They are used to identify extreme
highs or lows in price. Bollinger recognized a need for dynamic adaptive trading bands, whose spacing
varies based on the volatility of the prices. During period of high volatility, Bollinger bands widen to
become more forgiving. During periods of low volatility, they narrow to contain prices.
Sr. Basis of
Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis
No. Comparison
Includes evaluating
It is a statistical method used to
company's stock to find its
find pattern and predict future
1 Meaning intrinsic value and analyse
movements based on past market
factors that may affect the
data.
price in the future.
It examines - financial data,
Industry Trends, Competitors It examines - price movements and
2 Methodology
performance and economic market psychology
outlook.
Time
3 Long-term approach Short term approach
Horizon
4 Function Investment Trading
Data gathered
5 Financial statements Charts
from
Concepts Return on Equity and Return
6 Dow Theory and Price Data
used on Assets
To find the right time to enter or
To find intrinsic value of
7 Goal exit based on the past and current
stock
trend
Looks backward as well as
8 Vision looks backward
forward
When price falls below When trader believes they can sell
9 Stock bought
intrinsic value it on for a higher price
10 Decision Risk Level will decide trades Market Volatility decides trades
11 Importance Value Price
12 Significance Investment Objectives Matter Profit/Loss Matters
The above represents these three components of stock price movements. In this figure, the primary trend is
upward, but intermediate trends result in short lived market declines lasting a few weeks. The intraday
minor trends have no long-run impact on price.
The Dow theory employs two of the Dow Jones averages, the industrial average and the transportation
average. If the Dow Jones industrial average is rising, then the transportation average should also be rising.
Such simultaneous price movements suggest a strong bull market. On the other hand, a decline in both the
averages are moving in opposite directions, the market is uncertain as to the direction of future prices.
If investors believe in Dow theory, they will try to liquidate when a sell signal becomes apparent which will
drive down prices. Buy signals have the opposite effect. However, there are several problems of Dow
theory. It is not a theory but an interpretation of known data. It does not explain why the two averages
should be able to forecast future stock prices. There may be a considerable lag between actual turning points
and those indicated by the forecast.
Again Dow theory can work only when a long, wide, upward or downward movement is registered in the
market. The theory does not attempt to explain a consistent pattern of the stock price movements.
Basic Sequence
There are two types of waves: impulse and corrective. Impulse waves move in the direction of the larger
degree wave. When the larger degree wave is up, advancing waves are impulsive and declining waves are
corrective. When the larger degree wave is down, impulse waves are down and corrective waves are up.
Impulse waves, also called motive waves, move with the bigger trend or larger degree wave. Corrective
waves move against the larger degree wave.
The chart above shows a rising 5-wave sequence. The entire wave is up as it moves from the lower left to
the upper right of the chart. Waves 1,3 and 5 are impulse waves because they move with the trend. Waves 2
and 4 are corrective waves because they move against this bigger trend. A basic impulse advance forms a 5-
wave sequence.
A basic corrective wave forms with three waves, typically a, b and c. The chart below shows an abc
corrective sequence. Notice that waves a and c are impulse waves (green). This is because they are in the
direction of the larger degree wave. This entire move is clearly down, which represents the larger degree
wave. Waves a and c move with the larger degree wave and are therefore impulse waves. Wave b, on the
other hand, moves against the larger degree wave and is a corrective wave (red).
capital will channel quickly and accurately where it will do the community the most good. Efficient markets
will provide ready financing for worthwhile business ventures and drain capital away from corporations
which are poorly managed. It is essential that a country has efficient capital markets if it is to enjoy highest
possible level of wealth, welfare and education. One of the main reasons that some underdeveloped
countries do not advance is that they have insufficient capital markets. In inefficient capital markets prices
may be fixed or manipulated rather than determined by supply and demand. Capital may be controlled by a
few wealthy people and not be fluid and flow where it is needed.
.
In an efficient market, all the relevant information is reflected in the current stock price. Information cannot
be used to obtain excess return and the information has already been taken into account and absorbed in the
prices. Thus, all prices are correctly stated and there are no bargains in the stock market. Efficiency in the
security market means the ability of the capital markets to function so that prices of securities react rapidly
to new information. Such efficiency will produce prices that are appropriate in terms of current knowledge
and investors will be less likely to make unwise investments. The investors will also be less likely to
discover great bargains and thereby earn extraordinary high rates of return.
Michael C. Jensen has defined an efficient market as, "A market is efficient with respect to a given
information set, if it is impossible to make profits by trading on the basis oftltat information set. By
economic profit is meant the risk-adjusted, returns net of all costs."
Thus, market efficiency means that all known information is immediately discounted by all investors and
reflected in the market price of stocks. This means that no one has an information edge. In an efficient
market, everyone knows all possible 'to know' information simultaneously. Every one interprets it similarly
and behaves rationally. The market is assumed to be efficient in many more senses. One cannot expect to
earn superior rates of return by analysing annual reports, announcements of dividend changes etc. The
strong form asserts that not even those with privileged information can make use of it to secure superior
investment results.
The Efficient Market Theory also popularly known as Random Walk Theory holds that the financial market
is in possession of all available information which may influence the price of a share or stock that as a result
there is perfect competition in the financial market. The theory assumes that share prices wander in a
random fashion because the investors, in a perfectly competitive market, take account of all the facts about a
share in determining its price.
This theory is supposed to take three forms, - weak form, semi - strong form and strong form.
Efficient Market Theory suggests that the successive price changes are independent. It means that the prices
at any particular time usually reflect the intrinsic value of a security at an average. If the stock price moves
away from its intrinsic value, different investors will evaluate the information which is available differently
into the prospects of the firm and the professional investors will be able to make a short term gain on
random deviations from the intrinsic value but in the long run stocks will be forced back to its equilibrium
position.
CAPM
Modern finance theory provides a theoretical representation of the way risky financial assets are priced in
the markets. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is the theory developed and modified by the financial
economists through the sixties - W. Sharpe and J. Tobin. It can be applied to all capital assets such as shares,
debentures, bonds, etc.
ASSUMPTIONS OF CAPM:
The Capital Asset Pricing Model is based on the following assumptions:
(1) The investor's objective is to maximise the utility of terminal wealth.
(2) Investors make choices solely on the basis of risk and return.
(3) Investors have homogeneous expectations.
(4) Investors have identical one-period time horizons.
(5) Information is freely available.
(6) There is a risk-free asset and investors can borrow and lend any amount of money at the risk free rate.
(7) There are no taxes, transaction costs, or other market imperfections.
(8) Total assets quantity is fixed and all assets are marketable and divisible.
(9) Capital markets are in equilibrium.
CAPM EQUATION:
CAPM is that the expected return of an asset which will be related to a measure of risk for that asset known
as beta. CAPM specifies the manner in which expected return and beta are related. It provides the
intellectual basis for a number of the current practices in the investment industry.
According to CAPM, the relationship between Risk and Return is
Ki = Rf + B (Km - Rf)
Where Ki = Required or expected rate of return on security
Rf = Risk free rate of return
B = Beta coefficient of a security
Km = Expected rate of return on market portfolio
(a) Return: Return from an investment is the realisable cash flow earned by its owner during a given
period of time.
(b) Expected Rate of Return: It is the average return that ont expects to receive on an investment over the
long term.
(c) Market Portfolio: It is the portfolio comprising of all the risky securities that are traded in the market.
(d) Risk: Risk means chance of loss. It refers to the variability of possible returns associated with an
investment. The greater the dispersion of possible returns, the greater the risk and vice-versa. There are
different types of risk such as default risk, business risk, financial risk, purchasing power risk, interest rate
risk, liquidity risk, market risk. All these risks can be classified as systematic risk and unsystematic risks.
Systematic risk is external risk which cannot be diversified and investors cannot avoid the risk arising from
the above factors. However, unsystematic risk is internal -to the company and it can be diversified by
combining the securities in the portfolio.
Risk also refers to the dispersion of a probability distribution. How much do individual outcomes deviate
from the expected value? A simple measure of dispersion is the range of possible outcomes which is simply
the difference between the highest and lowest outcomes. A more sophisticated measure of risk, employed
commonly in finance, is the standard deviation. The standard deviation is calculated as follows:
(e) Beta: Beta is a measure of performance of a particular sha or class of shares in relation to the general
movement of tl market. Beta 1, rise or fall corresponds exactly with tl market and beta 2, rise or fall is
double. The systematic ( non-diversifiable risk of a security is generally measured 1 beta. This represents the
extent to which the return c security fluctuates in response to changes in the market ra of return. If a share has
consistently risen more than tl market as a whole it has a beta of more than 1. In future als this share can be
expected to rise at a rate higher than tl market as a whole. On the other hand, if the market falls, th share will
crash by greater than the market as a whole. Beta calculated statistically by dividing the co-variance between
particular security's return and the market rate of return b the variance of return on the market index as
follows:
An investment 'A' dominates investment 'B' if investors always prefer A to B. The mean variance criteria
assumes that continuously compounded returns on investments are normally distributed. Expected value of
this distribution is the mean and the measure of dispersion of values around the mean is the standard
deviation. Using the mean as the measure of expected return and the standard deviation as the measure of
risk, we can represent any investment in risk-return space as a single point. An example of investment A
with expected return and standard deviation is shown in the diagram below:
By plotting the dominant investments in risk-return space, we can identify the set of investments that are not
dominated by any other investment. This is the mean-variance efficient set or efficient frontier of portfolios
of risky assets. The point of tangency between the efficient frontier and the highest possible indifference
curve of an investor will identify the investors preferred portfolio.
Introduction of risk-free asset with borrowing and lending at the risk free rate leads to the Capital Market
Line. The CML is a linear relationship between expected return and total risk. It, becomes the new efficient
frontier. The point of tangency between the CML and the old efficient frontier of risky assets identifies the
market portfolio. The market portfolio is a perfectly diversified mean-variance efficient portfolio containing
every investment in quantities proportional to their total market value. The tangency point between the
highest indifference curve and the CML reveals the investors preferred portfolio mix. This can be shown in
the diagram given below:
The preferred portfolio is L on the indifference curve U3. For this investor portfolio L would be the
investment alternative that maximises expected return within the investor's risk constraints and yields the
highest possible utility.
The empirical tests show that the CAPM is a fairly good representation on the market but there seem to be
significant deviations of empirical results from the theory and conclusions of many studies are often
conflicting. Therefore, several alternatives have been developed to this model.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model gives a relationship between a securities risk and return. The excess of
return earned on any other security is the risk premium or the reward for the excess risk pertaining to that
security. According to CAPM, the required rate of return on security is equal to Risk Free Rate + (Beta of
Security x Market Risk Premium). The Market Risk Premium is the difference between Average Rate of
Return on Market and Risk free Rate. The average rate of return on a market index like the BSE National
Index can be taken as Proxy for the average rate of return on the market.
In the figure, the required rate of return for three securities A, B and C is shown. Security 'A' is defensive
security with a beta of 0.5. It's required rate of return is 11%. Security 'B' is neutral security with a beta of 1.
It's required rate of return is equal to the rate of return on the market portfolio. Security 'C' is aggressive
security with a beta of 1.5. It's required rate of return is 17%.
The SML has a positive slope, indicating that the expected return increases with risk (beta). The expected
return of a security on the SML is determined by the riskless rate plus a systematic risk premium which is
proportional to its beta.
In market equilibrium the CAPM implies an expected return risk relationship for all individual securities.
The implications of the securities market line are enormous. If individual assets and portfolios are priced
correctly, then all currently priced assets and portfolios must lie on the SML because the beta value of a
security or a portfolio represents its contribution to the risk of the market portfolio.
Therefore, it follows that an asset lying above SML is undervalued because it offers a return higher than
what is consistent with the systematic risk it carries. Similarly, assets lying below the SML, are overvalued,
because they offer returns lower than what investors should expect from investing in those assets. Therefore,
the SML can become the comer stone for developing effective portfolio strategies.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model requires risk free rate of return, required rate of return, beta coefficient of a
security and return on securities and market portfolio. Risk free rate of return is determined on the basis of
security and market conditions. Corporates use the CAPM in three related ways:
(1) to determine hurdle rates for corporate investments,
(2) to estimate the required returns for divisions strategic business units or lines of business, and
(3) to evaluate the performance of these divisions or units.
Corporate managers often use the cost of capital as the required rate of return for new corporate capital
investments. To develop this overall cost of capital, the manager must have an estimate of the cost of equity
capital. To calculate a cost of equity, estimate of the firms beta and use the CAPM to determine the
companies required return on equity. Historical returns and beta are also used to evaluate the performance of
the asset or portfolio. Thus, there are various inputs used for applying CAPM.
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS
1. Calculate the beta value from the following information:
Year Return on Security Return on Market
1 10 Portfolio
12
2 12 10
3 13 10
4 10 12
5 8 15
6 11 14
7 16 20
8 12 15
9 18 20
10 20 22
2. There are two securities A and B. Security 'A' is less risky and has a beta of 0.89 and security 'B' is more
risky and has a beta of 1. The risk free return is 10% and the market rate of return is 12%. Calculate the
following:
(a) Risk Premium of the Market.
(b) Expected Return of Security 'A'.
(c) Expected Return of Security 'B'.
3. Returns on X Ltd. were 12%, 13%, 12% and 11% in the last four years. Returns on Y Ltd. were 12%,
13%, 9% and 10% in the last four years. While average market returns were 14%, 15%, 14%, 13% in the
last four years, return on Government Securities was 6.5%.
You are required to compute beta factors and expected returns for X Ltd. and Y Ltd. (using CAPM) and
offer your comments.
4. Solve:
6. Returns on Ram Ltd. were 11%, 13%, 12% and 10% in the past four years. Returns on Shyam Ltd. were
12%, 14%, 9% and 10% in the last four years. While average market returns were 12%, 14%, 14% and 13%
in the last four years. Return on Government securities is 8%. You are required to compute beta factors and
expected returns of Ram Ltd. and Shyam Ltd. using CAPM and offer comments.
8. The risk free return is 8 percent and the return on market portfolio is 12 percent. If required return on a
stock is 15 percent, What is its beta?
(b) The risk-free return is 9 percent. The required return on a stock whose beta is 1.5 is 15 percent. What
is the return on the market portfolio?
9. Mr. Vipul has a portfolio of three securities. From the following details compute the portfolio returns and
rate of return on individual securities.
Price as on Price as on Yearly
Security
31.12.94 31.12.95 Dividend
A 20 30 2
B 30 40 3
C 50 60 5
10. a) What will be the expected return on a portfolio composed of the following securities?
Security Expected Proportion %
Return %
A 10 25
B 15 25
C 20 50
b)What will be the expected return if the proportion of each security in the portfolio is 20, 30 and 50
respectively?
10 PORTFOLIO EVALUATION
Portfolio helps investor to reduce or manage the risk involved in investing funds. It spreads the risk involved
in an investment from one security to a group of different types of securities.
MUTUAL FUNDS
a) A Mutual Fund is an intermediary that pools money from a number of investors and invests the same in a
variety of different financial instruments. The income earned through these investments and the capital
appreciation realized by the scheme is shared by the investors or Unit Holders, in proportion to the number
of units owned by them.
b) The organization that manages the investment is known as Asset Management Company [AMC].
c) In India, operations of AMC are supervised and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India
(SEBI).
a) Operating Expenses :
Costs incurred in operating mutual funds include advisory fees paid to investment managers, custodial fees,
audit fees, transfer agent fees, trustee fees, etc. The break-up of these expenses is required to be reported in
the scheme‟s offer document. The expenses ratio is arrived at by dividing operating expenses with average
net assets. Based on the type of the scheme and the net assets, operating expenses are determined within the
limits prescribed by SEBI regulations. Any expenses incurred beyond the specified limits are borne either
by the Asset Management Company or the Trustees or the sponsors. Operating expenses are calculated on
an annualised basis but are incurred on a daily basis, therefore, an investor is charged expenses on
proportionate basis depending on the time for which money is kept invested in the fund, b) Sales Charges :
These costs are also called by the name of sales loads, some examples of these expenses are payment of
agent‟s commission and expenses for distribution and marketing cost. These costs are charged directly to the
investors, this is because the fund may not want to put any burden of such cost on existing investors. As
these charges are charged from investors these expenses does not impact the performance of the fund. These
expenses are classified into :
This load is a one time fixed fee which is paid by an investor while he buys into a scheme. Printed load
determines the Public Offer Price (POP) which in turn determines how much of the initial investment gets
actually invested. This load is also known by the name of Entry Load. Public Offer Price with Front End
Load is calculated as follows:
Public Offer Price (i.e. the sale price) = NAV x (1 + Front end load)
If an investor invests say Rs. 50,000/- in a scheme that charges a 2% Front end load at an NAV per unit of
Rs. 10/-, the Public Offer Price (POP) will be calculated as follows:
POP = NAV x (1 + 0.02)
10 x 1.02 = 10.20 per unit
NAV
The Net Asset Value is the market value of the assets of the Mutual Fund Scheme minus its liabilities: The
net asset value of the mutual fund unit is computed as follows:
NAV = Market Value of fund + Receivables + Accrued Income - Liabilities & Expenses
Number of Units Outstanding
Thus, the factors affecting the NAV of a Mutual Fund are as follows:
(i) Sale and purchase of securities.
(ii) Sale and purchase of units.
(iii) Valuation of assets.
(iv) Accrued income and expenses.
The Rate of Return on a mutual fund is calculated as follows:
RATE OF RETURN = NAVe - NAVb + Dividend paid during the year x 100
NAVb
Where NAVe = Net Assets Value at the end of the period
NAVb = Net assets value at the beginning of the period.
MEASURES OF RETURN
The Sharpe ratio tells us whether a portfolio's returns are due to smart investment decisions or a result of
excess risk. This measurement is very useful because although one portfolio or fund can reap higher returns
than its peers, it is only a good investment if those higher returns do not come with too much additional risk.
The greater a portfolio's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance has been. A negative Sharpe
ratio indicates that a risk-less asset would perform better than the security being analyzed.
Jensen's measure of evaluating portfolio performance calculates the required return on a given portfolio and
then it is compared with the actual realized return of the portfolio. If the realised return is more than
calculated return the performance of the portfolio is better and vice-versa. For example, if there are two
mutual funds that both have a 12% return, a rational investor will want the fund that is less risky. Jensen's
measure is one of the ways to help determine if a portfolio is earning the proper return for its level of risk. If
the value is positive, then the portfolio is earning excess returns.
PRACTICE PROBLEMS
1. The details of three portfolios are given below. Compare these portfolios on performance using the
Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen's measures.
Portfolio Average Return Standard Beta
Deviation
1 15% 0.25 1.25
2. The details about Mutual fund and Market Portfolio are as follows:
Mutual Fund Market
Average Rate of Return 22% 20%
Standard Deviation of Return 16% 14%
Beta 1.20 1.00
Risk free Return 12% 12%
Compare the portfolio performance of Mutual Fund as well as market using Sharpe and Treynor's Index.
3. Compare portfolio performance using Sharpe and Treynor measures for the following portfolios:
Average Return Standard Beta
(%) Deviation
Portfolio A 14% 0.25 1.25
Portfolio B 10% 0.15 1.10
Market Index 12% 0.25 1.20
The risk-free rate of return is 8%.
A 12 18 1.1
B 10 15 0.9
C 13 20 1.2
Market 11 17 1.0
The mean risk free rate 6%. Calculate the Treynor's measure and Sharpe's measure and rank the portfolios.
5.
Portfolio Return Beta Risk free interest
rate
Birla 15% 1.2 9
Kotak 16% 1.5 9
Reliance 12% 0.8 9
Market Index 13% 1.0 9
You are required to rank these portfolios according to Jensen's Measure of Portfolio Return.
6. Three Mutual Funds have reported the following rates of return and risk over the last five years.
Growth fund Return Standard Beta
deviation
HDFC 15% 15% 1.10
ICICI 13% 16% 1.25
UTI 12% 10% 0.90
Evaluate the portfolio performance using Sharpe's and Treynor's Index. Which portfolio has performed
better?
7. Compare the following portfolios on performance using Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen's measures and rank
them.
Portfolio Avg. returns Std. Deviation Beta
1 15% 0.20 1.25
2 12% 0.35 0.75
3 10% 0.15 1.20
Market Index 12% 0,25 1.00
Risk free return is 6%.
A 12 0.25 1.30
B 15 0.30 0.80
C 10 0.20 1.20
Market 12 0.25 1.40
Index
The risk-free rate of return is 8%.
9. You are asked to analyze the two portfolios having the following characteristics:
Portfolio Observed Return Beta Standard
Deviation
Alpha 0.18 1,2 0.04
Gama 0.15 15 0.02
The risk free rate of return is 0.09 and the return on Market Portfolio is 0.14 with Standard Deviation is
0.05. Compute the appropriate measure of performance of these portfolios and comment on their respective
performance. Use Sharepe's Index and Treynor's Index.
10. Based on the below mentioned data decide whether the portfolio has outperformed the market in terms
of Treynor and Sharpe.
Particulars Portfolio Market
Average Rate of Return 22% 20%
Standard Deviation 16% 14%
Beta 1.20 1.00
Riskfree Return 12% 12%
12. Based on the following data, decide whether the portfolio has outperformed the market in terms of
Treynor, Sharpe and Jensen benchmark evaluation measures:
(M.U. Oct. 2012)
Particulars Portfolio Market
Average Return 7% 10%
Beta 0.4 1.0
Standard Deviation 3 8
Risk-Free Rate 6% 6%
13. Evaluate performance of following portfolio and the market using the following data and comment on
the same:
Portfolio Standard Deviation Beta Expected Return
(%) β %
Dev Ltd. 20 1.25 35
Gandharva Ltd. 18 1.10 30
Asura Ltd. 19 1.15 32
Market 15 1.00 25
(Note: Risk-free interest rate is 8%)
(MU April 2013)