Furnace Event Tree

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE Outcome Prob.
System shutdown and isolated (99% Short Duration Jet Fire, Fire Detection and
0.99 Availability Target) 1 1 1 1 # Isolation Success 2.27E-08
0.99422 Fire Detection 0.99 0.99 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Immediate ignition of gas release. Jet fire.
(OGP Ignition Probabilities 434-6) Gas
0.001 mixture is below auto-ignition temperature 0.99422 0.99422 0.99 0 0 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Loss of containment Jet Fire, Fire Detection Success and
2.31E-05 (Derived from fault tree) 0.99422 0.01 System shutdown & isolation system fail 1 1 1 # Isolation Fail 2.30E-10
0.99422 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Fire Detection fail Jet Fire, Fire Detection Failure, No
0.00578 (OREDA 2009 pp 442) 1 1 1 1 1 # Isolation 1.34E-10
# 0.00E+00
Explosion of Vapor Cloud (AlChE CCPS
Guidelines for Determininig the Probability of Small VCE, Gas Detection and Isolation
0.3 Ignition of a Released Flammable Mass). # Success 6.11E-09
Delayed ignition of Vapor cloud (OGP Ignition
0.0009 Probabilities 434-6). Minor release rate (0.5kg/s) 0 0 # 0.00E+00
0 0 # 0.00E+00
0 # 0.00E+00
System shutdown and isolated (99% Small VC Flash Fire, Gas Detection and
0.99 Availability Target) 0.0009 0.0009 0.7 Flash Fire of Vapour Cloud # Isolation Success 1.43E-08
0.99 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Short Duration Toxic Dispersion, Gas
0.99071 Gas Detection 0.99 0.99 0.9991 Gas mixture Toxic dispersion 1 1 # detection and Isolation Success 2.26E-05
0.99071 0.99 0 # 0.00E+00
0.99071 0.99 # 0.00E+00
0.999 Gas mixture Toxic dispersion 0.99071 0.99071 0.99 0 0 0 0 0 # 0.00E+00
0.99071 0.99 # 0.00E+00
Explosion of Vapor Cloud (AlChE CCPS
Guidelines for Determininig the Probability of VCE, Gas Detection Succession, Isolation
0.99071 0.99 0.3 Ignition of a Released Flammable Mass). # Fail 6.17E-11
0.99071 0.99 0 # 0.00E+00

Delayed ignition of Vapor cloud (OGP Ignition

0.99071 0.99 0.0009 Probabilities 434-6). Minor release rate (0.5kg/s) 0 0 # 0.00E+00
VC Flash Fire, Gas Detection Success,
0.99071 0.01 System shutdown & isolation system fail 0.0009 0.0009 0.7 Flash Fire of Vapour Cloud # Isolation Fail 1.44E-10
0.99071 0 0 # 0.00E+00
Toxic Dispersion, Gas detection Success,
0.99071 0.9991 Gas mixture Toxic dispersion 1 1 # Isolation Fail 2.28E-07
0.99071 0 # 0.00E+00

Explosion of Vapor Cloud (AlChE CCPS Guidelines

0.99071
Delayed ignition of Vapor cloud (OGP
Ignition Probabilities 434-6). Minor
0.99071 9E-04 release rate (0.5kg/s)
for Determininig the Probability of Ignition of a VCE, Gas Detection Failure and No
0.3 Released Flammable Mass). Congested area 1 1 # Isolation 5.79E-11
0.3 0.3 0 # 0.00E+00

Gas detection fail VC Flash Fire, Gas Detection Failure and

0.00929 (OREDA 2009 pp 444) 9E-04 0.0009 0.7 Flash fire of vapour cloud 1 1 # No Isolation 1.35E-10
9E-04 0 # 0.00E+00
Toxic Dispersion, Gas detection fail and
0.999 Gas mixture Toxic dispersion 1 1 1 # No Isolation 2.14E-07

0 0.0000231

ExxonMobil Chemical Company

Furnace event tree Daniel 5 Event Tree Builder ver 2 11/15/2019