Highlights of

Global Climate Change Impacts

in the United States
This booklet highlights key findings of Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,
a state of knowledge report about the observed and projected consequences of climate
change for our nation and people. It is an authoritative scientific report written in plain
language, with the goal of better informing public and private decision making at all levels.

The report draws from a large body of scientific information including the set of 21 synthesis
and assessment products from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the assessments
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and much more. It also includes new
information published since these assessments were released.

While the primary focus of the report is on the impacts of climate change in the United
States, it also discusses some of the actions society is already taking or can take to respond
to the climate challenge. These include limiting climate change by, for example, reducing
emissions of heat-trapping gases or increasing their removal from the atmosphere.

The importance of our current choices about heat-trapping emissions is underscored by

comparing impacts resulting from higher versus lower emissions scenarios. Choices about
emissions made now will have far-reaching consequences for climate change impacts, with
lower emissions reducing the magnitude of climate change impacts and the rate at which
they appear.

The report also identifies examples of options currently being pursued to cope with or
adapt to the impacts of climate change and/or other environmental issues. One example of
adaptation is included in this booklet. There is generally insufficient information at present
to evaluate the effectiveness, costs, and benefits of potential adaptation actions.

This booklet includes a brief overview of the 10 key findings of the

report, using examples from the report to illustrate each finding.
References for material in this booklet, including figures,
can be found in the full report.

The full report can be found online at

www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts

It is published by Cambridge University

Press, with hard copies available at:
www.cambridge.org
ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0

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Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States describes current and
future impacts of climate change on various U.S. regions and sectors.
There are both important commonalities and important differences in the climate-related issues and
consequences faced around the country. For example, water is a key issue in all regions, but the specific
changes and impacts vary. Regional perspectives are thus critical to thinking through responses to the
changes that will be faced around the nation.

ISLANDS

While the impacts of climate change clearly vary among the regions, there are issues of
national importance that transcend regional boundaries. Seven such “sectors” (shown
below) are considered in this report, providing a more integrated national picture of
impacts, although one with regional differences.

©iStockphotos.com/luchschen ©iStockphotos.com/Clayton Hansen

water energy Transportation

©iStockphotos.com/Jeffrey Smith

Agriculture ecosystems health society

3
 Impacts of Climate Change
Climate change is apparent now across our nation. Trends observed in recent decades include rising
temperatures, increasing heavy downpours, rising sea level, longer growing seasons, reductions in
snow and ice, and changes in the amounts and timing of river flows. These trends are projected to
continue, with larger changes resulting from higher amounts of heat-trapping gas emissions, and
smaller changes from lower amounts of these emissions. The observed changes in climate are already
causing a wide range of impacts, and these impacts are expected to grow. Select examples follow.

Sea Ice and Permafrost

Risks and costs in Alaska increase as
thawing of permafrost damages roads,
buildings, and forests, and declining sea ice
increases coastal erosion and threatens
the existence of some communities.

Forests
Forest growth is generally projected to
increase in much of the East, but decrease
in much of the West as water becomes even
scarcer. Major shifts in species are expected,
such as maple-beech-birch forests being
replaced by oak-hickory in the Northeast.
Insect infestations and wildfires are projected
to increase as warming progresses. ©iStockphotos.com/David Parsons

Coldwater Fish
Salmon, trout, and other
coldwater fish will face
additional stresses as water Interacting Stresses
temperatures rise and Population shifts and development choices
summer streamflows decline. are making more Americans vulnerable to
Ecosystems and the tourism the impacts of climate change. An aging
and recreation they support populace and continued population shifts to
will be adversely affected. the Southeast, Southwest, and coastal cities
amplify risks associated with extreme heat,
sea-level rise, storm surge, and increasing
water scarcity in some regions.
Coral Reefs
Rising water temperatures and
ocean acidification threaten coral
reefs and the rich ecosystems they
support. These and other climate-
related impacts on coastal and
marine ecosystems will have major
implications for tourism and fisheries.

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Heavy Downpours
More rain is already coming
in very heavy events, and this
trend is projected to increase
across the nation. Such events
are harmful to transportation
infrastructure, agriculture, water
quality, and human health.
Agriculture
Increasing heat, pests,
floods, weeds, and water
stress will present increasing
challenges for crop and
livestock production.
Water and Energy
Interactions
As warming increases
competition for water, the
energy sector will be strongly
affected because power
plants require large amounts
of water for cooling.
Water Supply
Water supplies in the rapidly growing
Southwest will become increasingly
scarce, calling for difficult trade-offs
among competing uses.
Responding to Climate Change
Responses to climate change fall into two major categories. “Mitigation” focuses on reducing emissions of
heat-trapping gases or increasing their uptake to reduce the amount and speed of climate change. “Adaptation”
refers to changes made to better respond to present or future climate conditions in order to reduce harm or
take advantage of opportunities. Both are necessary elements of a comprehensive response strategy.
Coastal Communities
Sea-level rise and storm surge
will increase threats to homes
and infrastructure including
water, sewer, transportation,
©iStockphotos.com/JeremyWedel
and communication systems.
Many barrier islands and coastal
marshes that protect the
coastline and support healthy
ecosystems will be lost.
“copyright”©1993WarrenFaidley/weatherstock
Heat Waves
Heat waves will become more
frequent and intense, increasing
threats to human health and quality
of life, especially in cities.
Energy Supply
Warming will decrease
demand for heating energy
in winter and increase
demand for cooling energy
in summer. The latter will
result in significant increases
in electricity use and higher
peak demand in most regions.
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5
TEN KEY FINDINGS
1 Global warming is unequivocal and primarily
human-induced
Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due
primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.

The emissions responsible for human- Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide
induced warming come primarily from
the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil,
and gas) with additional contributions
from the clearing of forests and
agricultural activities.

Global average temperature has risen

by about 1.5ºF since 1900. By 2100, it
is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF.
Increases at the lower end of this range
are more likely if global heat-trapping
gas emissions are cut substantially. If
emissions continue to rise at or near
current rates, temperature increases are
more likely to be near the upper end of
the range.

As a result of human activities, the

present carbon dioxide concentration of
about 385 ppm is about 30 percent
above its highest level over at least the Separating Human and
last 800,000 years. In the absence of Natural Influences on Climate
strong control measures, emissions
projected for this century would result
in the carbon dioxide concentration
increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to
3 times the highest level occurring over
the last 800,000 or more years.

Human activities have been

clearly linked to many aspects
of climate change including:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Ocean heat content As the blue band indicates, without human influences, global average
• Atmospheric moisture temperature would actually have cooled slightly over recent decades.
With human influences, it has risen strongly (black line), consistent
• Arctic sea ice
with expectations from climate models (pink band).

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2 Climate changes are underway in the United States
and are projected to grow

Changes observed in the U.S. include:

• Temperature rise
Increases in Amounts of Very Heavy Precipitation
• Sea-level rise
1958 to 2007
• Increase in heavy downpours
• Rapidly retreating glaciers
• Thawing permafrost
• Longer growing season
• Longer ice-free season in the ocean
and on lakes and rivers
• Earlier snowmelt
• Changes in river flows

Heavy Downpours
One of the most striking changes in climate
observed over the United States has been
an increase in the frequency and intensity
of heavy downpours. This increase was
responsible for most of the observed increase
in overall precipitation during the last 50
years. The amount of precipitation falling in Percentage change in very heavy precipitation
the heaviest 1 percent of rain events increased
0 - 10% 10 - 20% 20 - 30% 30 - 40% 40 - 50% >60%
nearly 20 percent. During the past 50 years,
the largest increases in heavy precipitation
occurred in the Northeast and the Midwest.

Climate models project continued increases in the heaviest downpours during this century, while the
lightest precipitation is projected to decrease. The chart below shows the projected changes in each
category of precipitation, from lightest to heaviest, under increasing emissions of heat-trapping gases.
Much larger increases in heavy downpours are projected under higher emissions scenarios than under lower
emissions scenarios.
Projected Changes in Light, Moderate, and Heavy
A note on the emissions scenarios: Precipitation by Late this Century
None of the emissions scenarios used in
this report assumes any policies specifically
designed to address climate change. All,
including the lower emissions scenario,
assume increases in heat-trapping gas
emissions for at least the next few decades,
though at different rates. The “lower
emissions scenario” used in this report is the
B1 scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC). The “higher
emissions scenario” is A2. Elsewhere, a third
“even higher emissions scenario” is used,
IPCC’s A1FI.

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2 Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are
projected to grow
Rising Temperature
U.S. average temperature has increased by about 2ºF over the past 50 years, which is more than the global
average temperature increase. In the next couple of decades, another degree or so of temperature rise is
projected. The maps below show projected temperature increases for the middle and the end of this century,
under both higher and lower emissions scenarios. As the maps illustrate, the higher the emissions, the higher
the temperature increases. If actual emissions are lower than those represented in the lower emissions
scenario, temperature increases would be smaller than those shown on the bottom set of maps.
Projected Temperature Change (ºF) from 1961-1979 Baseline
Higher Emissions Scenario
Mid-Century (2040-2059 average) End-of-Century (2080-2099 average)

Lower Emissions Scenario

Mid-Century (2040-2059 average) End-of-Century (2080-2099 average)

The brackets on the thermometers represent

the likely range of model projections, though
lower or higher outcomes are possible.

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Changing Precipitation Patterns
The maps below show projected future changes in precipitation relative to the recent past as simulated by
15 climate models. The simulations are for late this century, under a higher emissions scenario, with blue
indicating increasing precipitation, and brown indicating decreasing precipitation. For example, in the
spring, climate models agree that northern areas are likely to get wetter, and southern areas drier. There is
less confidence in exactly where the transition between wetter and drier areas will occur. Confidence in the
projections is highest in the hatched areas.

Projected Change in North American Precipitation

by 2080-2099

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3 Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring
now and are expected to increase

Energy Supply and Use

• Warming will be accompanied by decreases in demand for
heating energy and increases in demand for cooling energy. The
latter will result in significant increases in electricity use and
higher peak demand in most regions.
• Energy production is likely to be constrained by rising
temperatures and limited water supplies in many regions.
• Energy production and delivery systems are exposed to sea-level
rise and extreme weather events in vulnerable regions.
• Climate change is likely to affect some renewable energy sources
across the nation, such as hydropower production in regions
subject to changing patterns of precipitation or snowmelt.

Philip Mote

Society
• Population shifts and development choices are
making more Americans vulnerable to the
expected impacts of climate change.
• Vulnerability is greater for people who have few
resources and few choices.
• City residents and city infrastructure have unique
vulnerabilities to climate change. Tony A. Weyiouanna
Nome Nugget News
• Climate change affects communities through
changes in climate-sensitive resources that occur
both locally and at great distances.
• Insurance is one of the industries particularly
vulnerable to increasing extreme weather events
such as severe storms, but it can also help society
manage the risks.
• The United States is connected to a world that is
unevenly vulnerable to climate change and thus
will be affected by impacts in other parts of the
globe.

AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

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Ecosystems
• Ecosystem processes, such as those that
control growth and decomposition, have
been affected by climate change.
• Large-scale shifts have occurred in the
ranges of species and the timing of the
seasons and animal migration, and are very
likely to continue.
• Fires, insect pests, disease pathogens, and
invasive weed species have increased, and
these trends are likely to continue.
• Deserts and drylands are likely to become
hotter and drier, feeding a self-reinforcing Near Tucson, Arizona
cycle of invasive plants, fire, and erosion.
• Coastal and near-shore ecosystems are already under multiple stresses. Climate change and ocean
acidification will exacerbate these stresses.
• Arctic sea ice ecosystems are already being adversely affected by the loss of summer sea ice and further
changes are expected.
• The habitats of some mountain species and coldwater fish, such as salmon and trout, are very likely to
contract in response to warming.
• Some of the benefits ecosystems provide to society will be threatened by climate change, while others
will be enhanced.

Transportation
• Sea-level rise and storm surge will increase the risk of
major coastal impacts, including both temporary and
permanent flooding of airports, roads, rail lines, and
tunnels.
• Flooding from increasingly intense downpours will
increase the risk of disruptions and delays in air, rail, and
road transportation, and damage from mudslides in some
areas.
• The increase in extreme heat will limit some transportation
operations and cause pavement and track damage.
Decreased extreme cold will provide some benefits such as
reduced snow and ice removal costs.
• Increased intensity of strong hurricanes would lead to
more evacuations, infrastructure damage and failure, and
transportation interruptions.
• Arctic warming will continue to reduce sea ice, lengthening
the ocean transport season, but also resulting in greater
AP Photo/Jeff Roberson
coastal erosion due to waves. Permafrost thaw in Alaska
will damage infrastructure. The ice road season will
become shorter.

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 3 Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring
now and are expected to increase
NORTHWEST
• Declining snowpack reduces
summer streamflows, straining
water resources including those
needed for hydroelectric power
• Increasing wildfires, insects, and
species shifts pose challenges
for ecosystems and the forest
products industry
• Rising water temperatures and
declining summer streamflows
threaten salmon and other
coldwater fish species
• Sea-level rise increases erosion
and land loss
ALASKA
ALASKA ISLANDS
• Summers get hotter and drier,
with increasing evaporation
outpacing increased precipitation ISLANDS
• Wildfires and insect problems • Likely reductions in
increase freshwater availability
• Lakes decline in area have significant
• Permafrost thawing damages impacts
infrastructure • Sea-level rise and
• Coastal storms increase risks to storms threaten
villages and fishing fleets island communities
• Shifts in marine species affect • Climate changes
fisheries affecting coastal and
marine ecosystems
have major
implications for
tourism and fisheries
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GREAT PLAINS
• Increasing temperature,
evaporation, and drought
frequency compound
water scarcity problems
• Agriculture, ranching, and
natural lands are stressed
by limited water supplies
and rising temperatures
• Alteration of key habitats
such as prairie potholes
affects native plants and
animals
NORTHWEST
GREAT PLAINS
SOUTHWEST
SOUTHWEST
• Scarce water supplies call for trade-offs
among competing uses
• Increasing temperature, drought,
wildfire, and invasive species accelerate
landscape transformation
• Increased frequency and altered timing
of flooding increases risks to people,
ecosystems, and infrastructure
• Unique tourism and recreation
opportunities are likely to suffer
 MIDWEST
• Heat waves, air quality problems, and
insect and waterborne diseases increase
• Reduced water levels in the Great Lakes
affect shipping, infrastructure, beaches,
and ecosystems under a higher emissions
scenario
• More periods of both floods and water
deficits occur
• Floods, droughts, insects, and weeds
challenge agriculture
• Diseases and invasive species threaten
native fish and wildlife
NORTHEAST
MIDWEST
SOUTHEAST
COASTS
• Significant sea-level rise increases risks
to coastal cites
• More spring runoff and warmer water
will increase the seasonal reduction of
oxygen in coastal ecosystems
• Coral reefs will be affected by higher
temperatures and ocean acidification
• Changing ocean currents will affect
coastal ecosystems
NORTHEAST
• Extreme heat and declining air quality are
likely to pose increasing health risks
• Production of milk, fruits, and maple
syrup is likely to be adversely affected
• More frequent flooding due to sea-level
rise, storm surge, and heavy downpours
• Reduced snow negatively affects winter
recreation
• Lobster fishery continues northward
shift; cod fishery further diminished
SOUTHEAST
• Increases in air and water temperatures
stress people, plants, and animals
• Decreased water availability is very likely to
affect the economy and natural systems
• Sea-level rise and increases in hurricane
intensity and storm surge cause serious
impacts
• Thresholds are likely to be crossed, causing
major disruptions to ecosystems and the
benefits they provide to people
• Severe weather events and reduced
availability of insurance will affect coastal
communities
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4 Climate change will stress water resources
Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impacts varies. Drought – related to
reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and increased water loss from plants – is an important issue
in many regions, especially in the West. Floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by
climate change in most regions. Declines in
mountain snowpack are important in the West Projected Changes in Annual Runoff
and Alaska where snowpack provides vital
natural water storage.

Climate change affects water resources:

• Water cycle is altered, affecting where,
when, and how much water is available
• Floods and droughts become more
common and intense as regional and
seasonal precipitation patterns change
and rainfall is more concentrated into
heavy events with longer dry periods in
between
• Less snow, more rain
Runoff is the amount of precipitation that is not evaporated, stored
• Wet areas get wetter, dry areas get drier
as snowpack or soil moisture, or filtered down to groundwater.
• Mountain snowpack declines, timing of Projected changes in median runoff for 2041-2060, relative to a
runoff shifts to earlier in spring, and flows 1901-1970 baseline, are mapped by water resource region. Colors
are lower in summer indicate percentage changes in runoff. Hatched areas indicate greater
• Increased competition for water supplies confidence due to strong agreement among model projections. White
areas indicate divergence among model projections.

5 Crop and livestock production will be

increasingly challenged
• Many crops show positive responses to Weed Growth is Promoted and
elevated carbon dioxide and low levels of Herbicide Loses Effectiveness at Higher CO2
warming, but higher levels of warming often
negatively affect growth and yields.
• Extreme events such as heavy downpours
and droughts are likely to reduce crop yields
because excesses or deficits of water have
negative impacts on plant growth.
• Weeds, diseases, and insect pests benefit from
warming, and weeds also benefit from a higher
carbon dioxide concentration, increasing stress
on crop plants and requiring more attention to
pest and weed control.
• Forage quality in pastures and rangelands Current CO2 Potential Future CO2
generally declines with increasing carbon (380 ppm) (680 ppm)
dioxide concentration because of the effects on
plant nitrogen and protein content, reducing the land’s ability to supply adequate livestock feed.
• Increased heat, disease, and weather extremes are likely to reduce livestock productivity.

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6 Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise,
storm surge, and other climate-related stresses

Coastal impacts include: Global sea level is rising due to the warming-
• Sea-level rise leads to erosion and loss induced expansion of ocean water, accelerated
of land melting of most of the world’s glaciers, and
• Storm surge causes flooding loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic
• Increased pollution due to more runoff ice sheets. Additional warming will cause
from the land further sea-level rise over this century and
• Ocean acidification threatens coral beyond.
reefs and shellfish
Rising sea level is already eroding shorelines,
drowning wetlands, and threatening homes,
Projected Sea-Level Rise businesses, and infrastructure. The destructive
potential of Atlantic hurricanes has increased
in recent decades in association with
increasing sea surface temperatures, and it is
likely that hurricane rainfall and wind speeds
will increase in response to global warming.
Coastal water temperatures have risen and the
geographic distributions of marine species
have shifted.

Precipitation increases on land have increased

river runoff, polluting coastal waters with
more nitrogen and phosphorous, sediments,
and other contaminants. Ocean acidification
resulting from the uptake of carbon dioxide by
ocean waters threatens corals, shellfish, and
other living things that form their shells and
skeletons from calcium carbonate.

All of these forces converge and interact at

the coasts, making these areas particularly
sensitive to the impacts of climate change.

Based on the state of the science at the time, in 2007 the Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected a rise
of the world’s oceans from 8 inches to 2 feet by the end of this
century (range shown as bars). However, they could not quantify the
contributions to sea-level rise due to changes in ice sheet dynamics.
More recent research has attempted to quantify this contribution
by estimating future sea level based on its observed relationship to
temperature. For example, the projections indicated by the light
blue circles in the figure above estimate global average sea-level rise
of almost 3.5 feet by the end of this century under a high emissions
scenario. In areas where the land is sinking, such as the Atlantic and
Gulf Coasts of the United States, sea-level rise will be higher than
the global average.
Jack Pellette/NWS

15
7 Threats to human health will increase

Major health risks include:

Number of Days Over 100ºF
• Heat stress
• Waterborne diseases (due to heavy Recent Past, 1961-1979
downpours and higher temperatures)
• Poor air quality
• Extreme weather events
• Diseases caused by insects and rodents
• Pollen increase
• Children, the elderly, and the poor are
most vulnerable to climate-related health
effects

Climate change poses unique challenges to human

Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
health including heat waves and severe storms, ail-
ments caused or exacerbated by air pollution and air-
borne allergens, and many climate-sensitive infectious
diseases. Whether or not increased health risks due
to climate change are realized will depend largely on
societal responses and underlying vulnerability. The
probability of exacerbated health risks due to climate
change points to a need to maintain a strong public
health infrastructure to help limit future impacts.

Projected Increase in
Heat-Related Deaths in Chicago Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

High air temperatures are uncomfortable, stressful, and

Increases in heat-related deaths are projected in cities
increase the risk of heat-related illnesses. The number of
around the nation, especially under higher emissions
days in which the temperature exceeds 100ºF by late this
scenarios. This analysis included some adaptation
measures. The graph shows the projected number of century, compared to the 1960s and 1970s, is projected
deaths per year, averaged over a three-decade period to increase strongly across the United States.
around 1975, 2055, and 2085 for the City of Chicago
under lower and higher emissions.

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8 Climate change will interact with many
social and environmental stresses

Social trends can increase our vulnerability to climate change. Recent trends include concentration
of development along vulnerable coasts, aging of the U.S. population, increasing urbanization, and
population growth in the South and West. Overlaying projections of future climate change and its impacts
on expected changes in U.S. population and development patterns reveals a critical insight: More Americans
will be living in the areas that are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, from sea-level rise and
hurricanes in the Southeast, to water scarcity in the Southwest.

Pollution and the resulting poor air quality is one of many human-caused stresses that interact with climate
change to amplify impacts. The combination of air pollution with heat, drought, and stagnant air negatively
affects human health and quality of life in cities.

Geographic Vulnerability of U.S. Residents to

Selected Climate-Related Health Impacts
Location of Hurricane Landfalls, Percentage of Population
1995 to 2000 Aged 65 or Older, 2000

Locations of Extreme Heat Events, West Nile Virus Cases,

1995 to 2000 2004

Maps indicating U.S. counties, or in some cases states, with existing vulnerability to climate-sensitive health
outcomes. These examples demonstrate both the diversity of climate-sensitive health outcomes and the
geographic variability of where they occur.

17
9 Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes
in climate and ecosystems
There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds
determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from
fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of
additional thresholds is expected.
Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost in Alaska, in addition to damag-
ing forests and other natural systems, presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve
infrastructure.

Cod in the North Atlantic are adapted to annual average temperatures near the seafloor ranging from 36
to 54°F. Large populations of cod are generally not found above the 54°F threshold. Temperature also
influences the location and timing of spawning, which in turn affect the growth and survival of young cod.
Increases in bottom temperatures above 47°F are projected to lead to a decline in growth and survival.
Projections of warming indicate that both the 47°F and the 54°F thresholds will be met or exceeded in this
century under a higher emissions scenario.

Lobster catches in the southern part of the Northeast region have declined sharply in the past decade,
associated with a temperature-sensitive bacterial shell disease. The southern extent of the commercial
lobster harvest appears to be limited by this disease, the effects of which are expected to increase with
rising near-shore water temperatures.

Crossing key temperature thresholds has contributed to major insect outbreaks that have destroyed millions
of acres of trees in the United States. First, warmer winters allow larger populations of insects to survive
the cold season that normally limits their numbers. Second, the longer warm season allows them to develop
faster, sometimes completing
Alaska Spruce Beetle Infestation two life cycles instead of one in
Kenai Peninsula, 1972 to 1998 a single growing season. Third,
warmer conditions allow insects’
ranges to expand northward.
Fourth, drought stress reduces
trees’ ability to resist insect
attack (for example, by pushing
back against boring insects with
the pressure of their sap).

Spruce beetle, pine beetle,

spruce budworm, and woolly
adelgid (which attacks eastern
hemlocks) are just some of the
insects that are proliferating
in the United States, causing
devastation in many forests.
These outbreaks are projected
to increase with ongoing
warming. Trees killed by insects
also provide more dry fuel for
wildfires.
18
10 Future climate change and its impacts depend on
choices made today
The amount and rate of future climate change depends primarily on current and future human-
caused emissions of heat-trapping gases and airborne particles. Responses involve reducing
emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable.
Human-induced climate change is happening now, and impacts are already apparent. Greater impacts
are projected, particularly if heat-trapping gas emissions continue unabated. Previous assessments have
established these facts, and this report confirms, solidifies, and extends these conclusions for the United
States. It reports the latest understanding of how climate change is already affecting important sectors
and regions. In particular, it reports that some climate change impacts appear to be increasing faster than
previous assessments had suggested.
Global Average Temperature
Choices about emissions now and in the coming years 1900-2100
will have far-reaching consequences for climate change
impacts. A consistent finding of this assessment is that the
rate and magnitude of future climate change and resulting
impacts depend critically on the level of global atmospheric
heat-trapping gas concentrations. Lower emissions of heat-
trapping gases will delay the appearance of climate change
impacts and lessen their magnitude. Unless the rate of
emissions is substantially reduced, impacts are expected to
become increasingly severe for more people and places.

Similarly, there are choices to be made about adaptation

strategies that can help to reduce or avoid some of the Observed and projected changes in the global
undesirable impacts of climate change. One such example average temperature under three IPCC emissions
scenarios that assume no policies to address
is shown below and other examples appear in the full report. climate change. The shaded areas show the likely
There is much to learn about the effectiveness of the various ranges while the lines show the central projections
types of adaptation responses and how they will interact with from a set of climate models. A wider range of
each other and with mitigation actions. model types shows outcomes from 2 to 11.5ºF.
Changes are relative to the 1960-1979 average.
As our nation strives to develop effective strategies to
respond to climate change, it is essential to have the latest and best scientific information about the impacts
of climate change in the United States. The report highlighted in this booklet provides that information.

Adaptation Example: Raising a Sewage Treatment Plant in Boston

Boston’s Deer Island sewage treatment plant was designed and built taking
future sea-level rise into consideration. Because the level of the plant relative
to the level of the ocean at the outfall is critical to the amount of rainwater
and sewage that can be treated, the plant was built 1.9 feet higher than it would
otherwise have been to accommodate the amount of sea-level rise projected
to occur by 2050, the planned life of the facility. Massachusetts Water Resources Authority

The planners recognized that the future would be different from the past and
they decided to plan for the future based on the best available information. They assessed what could be easily
and inexpensively changed at a later date versus those things that would be more difficult and expensive to
change later. For example, increasing the plant’s height would be less costly to incorporate in the original design,
while protective barriers could be added at a later date, as needed, at a relatively small cost.

19
 Federal Advisory Committee Authors
Co-Chairs and Editors-in-Chief
Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, Thomas C. Peterson,
NOAA National Climatic Data Center Marine Biological Laboratory NOAA National Climatic Data Center

Author Team
David M. Anderson, Jack A. Kaye, Michael J. Savonis,
NOAA World Data Center for National Aeronautics and Space U.S. Department of Transportation
Paleoclimatology Administration H. Gerry Schwartz, Jr.,
Donald F. Boesch, Jay H. Lawrimore, Consultant/Transportation
University of Maryland Center for NOAA National Climatic Data Center Eileen L. Shea,
Environmental Science James J. McCarthy, NOAA National Climatic Data Center/
Virginia R. Burkett, Harvard University Integrated Data and Environmental
U.S. Geological Survey A. David McGuire, Applications Center
Lynne M. Carter, U.S. Geological Survey/University of John M.R. Stone,
Adaptation Network Alaska Fairbanks Carleton University
Stewart J. Cohen, Edward L. Miles, Bradley H. Udall,
Environment Canada and University of University of Washington University of Colorado/NOAA Earth
British Columbia Evan Mills, System Research Laboratory
Nancy B. Grimm, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory John E. Walsh,
Arizona State University Jonathan T. Overpeck, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Jerry L. Hatfield, University of Arizona Michael F. Wehner,
U.S. Department of Agriculture Jonathan A. Patz, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Katharine Hayhoe, University of Wisconsin at Madison Thomas J. Wilbanks,
Texas Tech University Roger S. Pulwarty, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Anthony C. Janetos, NOAA Climate Program Office and Earth . Donald J. Wuebbles,
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory System Research Laboratory University of Illinois
Benjamin D. Santer,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Senior Science Writer and Lead Graphic Designer

Senior Science Writer Lead Graphic Designer
Susan J. Hassol, Sara W. Veasey,
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June 2009