Elements of Probability - part 1

March 1, 2020

1 Sample space - Events

1. A box contains three marbles — one red, one green, and one blue. Consider an experiment that consists of
taking one marble from the box, then replacing it in the box and drawing a second marble from the box.
Describe the sample space. Repeat for the case in which the second marble is drawn without first replacing
the first marble.
2. Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed for scratch and shock resistance. The results from
100 disks are summarized below:
Shock resistance
high low
scratch high 70 9
resistance low 16 5

Let A denote the event that a disk has high shock resistance, and let B denote the event that a disk has high
scratch resistance. Determine the number of disks in AB, Ac and A ∪ B.
3. The rise time of a reactor is measured in minutes (and fractions of minutes). Let the sample space be positive,
real numbers. Define the events A and B as follows: A = {x|x < 72.5} and B = {x|x > 52.5}. Describe the
following event

a. Ac b. B c c. AB d. A ∪ B

4. An experiment consists of tossing a coin three times. What is the sample space of this experiment? Which
event corresponds to the experiment resulting in more heads than tails?
5. Two dice are thrown. Let E be the event that the sum of the dice is odd, let F be the event that the first die
lands on 1, and let G be the event that the sum is 5. Describe the events EF , E ∪ F , F G, EF c , EF G.
6. Asystemiscomposedoffourcomponents,eachofwhichiseitherworkingorfailed. Consider an experiment that con-
sists of observing the status of each component, and let the outcome of the experiment be given by the vector
(x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 ) where xi is equal to 1 if component i is working and is equal to 0 if component i is failed.
(a) How many outcomes are in the sample space of this experiment?
(b) Suppose that the system will work if components 1 and 2 are both working, or if components 3 and 4
are both working. Specify all the outcomes in the event that the system works.
(c) Let E be the event that components 1 and 3 are both failed. How many outcomes are contained in event
E?

2 Axioms of Probability
1. A group of 5 boys and 10 girls is lined up in random order — that is, each of the 15! permutations is assumed
to be equally likely.
(a) What is the probability that the person in the 4th position is a boy?

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 (b) What about the person in the 12th position?
(c) What is the probability that a particular boy is in the 3rd position?
2. A town contains 4 television repairmen.If 4 sets break down,what is the probability that exactly 2 of the
repairmen are called? What assumptions are you making?
3. A woman has n keys, of which one will open her door. If she tries the keys at random, discarding those that
do not work, what is the probability that she will open the door on her kth try? What if she does not discard
previously tried keys?
4. A closet contains 8 pairs of shoes. If 4 shoes are randomly selected, what is the probability that there will be
(a) no complete pair
(b) exactly 1 complete pair?

3 Addition Rules
1. If P (A) = 0.3, P (B) = 0.2 and P (AB) = 0.1, dtermine the following probabilities

a./, P (Ac ) b. P (AB c ) c. P (Ac B) d. P [(A ∪ B)c ] e. P (A ∪ B c ).

2. In the article “ACL Reconstruction Using Bone- Patellar Tendon-Bone Press-Fit Fixation: 10-Year Clinical
Results” in Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy (2005, Vol. 13, pp. 248–255), the following
causes for knee injuries were considered:

Activity Percentage of Knee Injuries

Contact sport 46%
Noncontact sport 44%
Activity of daily living 9%
Riding motorcycle 1%

(a) What is the probability a knee injury resulted from a sport (contact or noncontact)?
(b) What is the probability a knee injury resulted from an ac- tivity other than a sport?
3. Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed for scratch and shock resistance. The results from
100 disks are summarized below:
Shock resistance
high low
scratch high 70 9
resistance low 16 5

(a) If a disk is selected at random, what is the probability that its scratch resistance is high and its shock
resistance is high?
(b) If a disk is selected at random, what is the probability that its scratch resistance is high or its shock
resistance is high?
4. Clarkson University surveyed alumni to learn more about what they think of Clarkson. One part of the
survey asked respondents to indicate whether their overall experience at Clarkson fell short of expectations,
met expectations, or surpassed expectations. The results showed that 4% of the respondents did not provide
a response, 26% said that their experi- ence fell short of expectations, and 65% of the respondents said that
their experience met expectations (Clarkson Magazine, Summer 2001).

(a) If we chose an alumnus at random, what is the probability that the alumnus would say their experience
surpassed expectations?
(b) If we chose an alumnus at random, what is the probability that the alumnus would say their experience
met or surpassed expectations?

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5. Data on the 30 largest stock and balanced funds provided one-year and five-year percent- age returns for the
period ending March 31, 2000 (The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2000). Suppose we consider a one-year
return in excess of 50% to be high and a five-year return in excess of 300% to be high. Nine of the funds had
one-year returns in excess of 50%, seven of the funds had five-year returns in excess of 300%, and five of the
funds had both one-year returns in excess of 50% and five-year returns in excess of 300%.

(a) What is the probability of a high one-year return, and what is the probability of a high five-year return?
(b) What is the probability of both a high one-year return and a high five-year return?
(c) What is the probability of neither a high one-year return nor a high five-year return?