Eos, Vol. 83, No.

5 0 , 1 0 December 2 0 0 2

VOLUME 83 NUMBER 50
10 DECEMBER 2002
EOS, TRANSACTIONS, AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION PAGES 589-600

general warming of the permafrost in Alaska's

Permafrost Temperature Records:
Indicators of Climate Change
PAGES 589,593-594
Permafrost has received much attention
recently because surface temperatures are ris­
ing in most permafrost areas of the Earth,
bringing permafrost to the edge of widespread
thawing and degradation.The thawing of per­
mafrost that already occurs at the southern
limits of the permafrost zone can generate
dramatic changes in ecosystems and in infra­
structure performance. In this article, we
describe an emerging system for comprehen­
sive monitoring of permafrost temperatures, a
system which is needed for timely detection
permafrost with less attenuation. As a result,
the "signal-to-noise" ratio increases rapidly
with depth, and the ground acts as a natural
low-pass filter of the climatic signal.This
makes temperature-depth profiles in
permafrost useful for studying past tempera­
ture changes at the ground surface.
Arthur Lachenbruch's investigations at the
U.S. Geological Survey were among the first in
North America to develop and apply a method
to evaluate climate change based on analytical
interpretation of permafrost temperature pro­
files. Using deep permafrost temperature pro­
files obtained in the 1960s through the 1980s
Arctic region of 2 to 4°C over the last century.
In the Arctic, projected warming during the
21st century may ultimately result in the dis­
appearance of the warmer and thinner
permafrost in the southernmost zones. Recent
studies revealed active permafrost degradation
in Alaska, Canada, Russia, Mongolia, and China
[Anisimov et al., 2001 ]. Indeed, the 1995 report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change predicted the disappearance of most
of the ice-rich permafrost in the present dis­
continuous zone over a century-long time
span [IPCC, 1995].These changes will lead to
considerable impacts on the landscape and
ecosystems, and also to social and economic
impacts.
Erosion or subsidence of ice-rich landscapes,
alterations to hydrologic processes, and the
release of carbon dioxide (CO^ and methane
(CH ) to the atmosphere may occur.The sta­
4

of worldwide changes in permafrost stability, at numerous locations in northern Alaska, bility of buildings, other structures, pipelines,
and for predictions of negative consequences Lachenbruch and Marshall [1986] showed a and communication links will be threatened.
of permafrost degradation.
Permafrost is rock, sediment, or any other Candidate Boreholes for Permafrost Thermal Monitoring
Earth material with a temperature that remains
below 0°C for two or more years. Permafrost
zones occupy up to 24% of the exposed land
area of the Northern Hemisphere (Figure 1)
[Zhang et al., 2000]. Permafrost ranges from
very cold (temperatures of -10°C and lower)
and very thick (more than 500 m and as
much as 1400 m) in the Arctic, to warm
(within 1 or 2° of the melting point) and thin
(several meters or less in thickness) in the
sub-Arctic.
Permafrost can be classified into two zones:
continuous permafrost and discontinuous
permafrost. In the continuous zone, permafrost
occupies the entire area (except beneath
large rivers and deep lakes). In the discontinu­
ous zone, including the sporadic zone,
anywhere from 10% to 90% of the surface is
underlain by permafrost.The formation and
degradation of permafrost create unique
landscape features. Of particular concern is
subsidence upon thawing of permafrost in
response to climatic warming or surface
disturbance.
The permafrost temperature regime (at
depths of 10 to 200 m) is a sensitive indicator
of the decade-to-century climatic variability
and long-term changes in the surface energy
balance. This is because the range of inter-
annual temperature variations ("noise") M a p compiled b y S.L. Smith, Geological Survey of C a n a d a , March, 2001

decreases significantly with depth, while

decadal and longer time-scale variations (the Fig. 1. Permafrost distribution in the Northern Hemisphere and location of candidate boreholes for
"signal") penetrate to greater depths into Permafrost Thermal Monitoring System. Original color image appears at the back of this volume.
 Eos, Vol. 8 3 , No. 5 0 , 1 0 D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 2

The Third IPCC report, Climate Change 2001:

Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, generally
supports the previous report with an important
clarification that degradation of permafrost is
a slow process [Anisimov et al., 2001 ]. If recent
trends continue, it will take several centuries
to millennia for permafrost in the present dis­
continuous zone to disappear completely in
the areas where it is actively warming and
thawing. However, negative consequences of
this degradation will be pronounced from the
very beginning, because the highest ice con­
tent in permafrost usually is found in the
upper few tens of meters.
All these observed and predicted changes
in permafrost stress the necessity to monitor
its dynamics (particularly its temperature) for
timely assessment and predictions of the pos­
sible negative impacts of permafrost degrada­
tion on ecosystems and infrastructure.The
effects of human-induced disturbances (e.g.,
disturbances to land areas that are covered by
permafrost that have been disturbed through
building construction, laying of oil and gas Fig. 2. Comparisons (a) between permafrost temperature profiles measured at the same location
pipelines, farming, roads and runway by Max Brewer on 9 October 1950 (solid square symbols), and by our research group on 9 October
construction) will also be enhanced with cli­ 2001 (open circles); and (b) between those measured on 14 April 1952 (solid square symbols)
#

mate warming.This will require remediation and calculated for the same date (open circles) temperature profiles at the Special 2 site.
of existing structures, and necessitate the con­
sideration of climate change in the design of
future developments, such as roads, pipelines, Table 1. Recent Trends in Permafrost Temperatures Measured at Different Locations.
and runways.
Permafrost
Establishment of Permafrost Country Region temperature Reference
Observatory at Barrow trends
Changes in air temperature generally Trans-Alaska pipeline +0.6to+1.5°C Osterkamp and
precede changes in permafrost temperature. USA route (20 m), 1983-2000 Romanovsky, 1999;
However, because of the effects of the Romanovsky and
intervening snow cover, vegetation, and physi­ Osterkamp, 2001
cal properties of soils within the layer above
Barrow Permafrost +1°C UAF Geophysical
the permafrost where seasonal thawing-freez-
ing occurs (an area called the active layer), Observatory (15 m), Institute ongoing
somewhat different temperature changes are 1950-2001 research
generated at the permafrost table.The East Siberia (1.6-3.2 m), +0.03°C/year UAF Geophysical
common postulation that permafrost tempera­ 1960-1992 Institute ongoing
tures are a reasonably good indicator of research
climate change has thus been recently ques­
North of West Siberia +0.3 to +0.7°C Pavlov, 1994
tioned. Our recent study shows that
permafrost temperatures reflect changes in air (10 m), 1980-1990
temperatures over a long time scale (decadal Russia European North of
and longer) much better than inter-annual air Russia, continuous +1.6 to +2.8°C Pavlov, 1994
temperature variations. permafrost zone (6 m),
Long-term permafrost temperature records 1973-1992
are needed to better understand the relation­ European North of
ship between air and permafrost temperatures.
Russia, discontinuous upto+1.2°C Oberman and
This need is one of the reasons for re-activat­
ing sites where high-quality permafrost tem­ permafrost zone (6 m), Mazhitova, 2001
perature records were obtained decades ago. 1970-1995
One such ideal place is Barrow, Alaska. During Alert, Nunavut (15 m), +0.15°C/year Geological Survey of
the past year, a permafrost observatory was 1995-2000 Canada ongoing
established at Barrow (for details, see research
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/barrow_permafrost.
Canada Northern Mackenzie +0.1°C/year Geological Survey of
html) under the auspices of the International
Arctic Research Center (IARC).The observato­ basin, NWT (28 m), Canada ongoing
ry was established to compare present 1990-2000 research
permafrost temperatures with those obtained Central Mackenzie basin, +0.03°C/year Geological Survey of
during the 1950s and early 1960s by Max NWT (15 m), 1985-2000 Canada ongoing
Brewer [1958].Those measurements were of research
very high quality, with a precision of generally
0.01 °C. Northern Quebec (10 m), -0.1°C/year Allard et a l , 1995
late 1980s-mid 1990s

Comparison of permafrost temperature pro­
files obtained at the same location by Brewer
on 9 October 1950 (personal communication,
2001) and by the UAF Geophysics research
group on 9 October 2001 shows that at the 15-
m depth (which is slightly above the depth of
annual temperature variations), the permafrost
temperature is now warmer by more than 1°C
(Figure 2a).
This noticeable, but still moderate, increase
over such a long period is consistent with our
previous analysis of long-term permafrost
temperature variations at Barrow for the period
1924-1997.That investigation was based on
application of our high-resolution numerical
model using the Barrow National Weather
Service climate data, and employing a
"permafrost temperature reanalysis"
[Romanovsky et al., 1997; Osterkamp and
Romanovsky, 1999; Romanovsky and
Osterkamp,200\].In this modeling method,
variations in the air temperature and snow
cover thickness and properties are the driving
forces of the permafrost temperature dynam­
ics. The model is calibrated for a specific site
using measured permafrost and active layer
temperatures (usually several years of
available data are used), and data from the
closest meteorological station for the same
time interval.The calibrated model can then
be applied to the entire period of meteorolog­
ical records at this station, producing a time
series of permafrost temperature changes.The
same calibrated model can be applied for
predictions of the future permafrost dynamics
when some future climate change scenario is
used as input data.
The historical permafrost data provide a
unique opportunity to independently test our
model and modeling results.This particular
numerical model for the Barrow permafrost
temperature regime was developed in 1997.
The model was calibrated using data from
shallow (down to 1 m) soil temperatures
obtained by Ken Hinkel [Hinkel et al., 2001] at
a Barrow site with surface conditions similar to
the Brewer site. No data from the Brewer sites
were used for the calibration.The daily air
temperatures and snow cover thickness dur­
ing the entire period of measurements
(1924-2001) at the Barrow meteorological sta­
tion were used as input data for this calibrat­
ed model. As a result, a time series of daily
ground temperatures for the depths between
0 and 200 m were obtained.To compare cal­
culated temperatures with measured data, we
used the time interval between September
1951 and October 1952, when weekly meas­
urements were available.
The results of this comparison were much
better than expected. For the entire period,
which covers more than one year, the differ­
ences between calculated and measured per­
mafrost temperatures were typically smaller
than 0.3°C in the depth interval between 2
and 18 m.They practically never exceeded 1°C
in the upper two meters of soil and permafrost.
Figure 2b shows a very good match between
permafrost temperatures predicted using our
model and the temperature profile measured
by Brewer on 14 April 1952.This agreement
Eos,Vol. 8 3 , No. 5 0 , 1 0 December 2 0 0 2
_14 1 i i i i i i
1930 1940 1950
T I M E (years)
Fig. 3. Calculated mean annual temperatures in the active layer (at the depth of 8 cm) and near-
surface permafrost (between 0.5 and 15 m) using a model calibrated for the Barrow site and the
data from the Barrow meteorological station. Original color image appears at the back of this
volume.
assures the reconstructed mean annual tem­
perature variations shown in Figure 3.
As an example, Figure 3 shows that the ther­
mal conditions near the permafrost table in
Barrow, which is about 35 to 40 cm deep at
this site, varied considerably during the entire
period of analysis, with the temperatures
being very similar during the 1940s and 1990s
(except for unprecedented warm extremes of
1998 and 1999).The calculated permafrost
temperature at 15 m during the entire year of
1996 was very similar (within 0.1°C) to the
permafrost temperature measured in 1953 at
the same depth. It implies that the observed
1°C difference at 15 meters in permafrost tem­
peratures between 1950 and 2001 (Figure 2a)
is the result of very recent warming during the
late 1990s. Much colder permafrost tempera­
tures at the permafrost table (up to 2 to 3°C
colder) were typical for Barrow during the
1970s.
Permafrost Temperature Monitoring
Network and Observed Changes
In 1997, the Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS) and the Global Terrestrial
Observation System (GTOS) identified the
active layer and permafrost thermal state as
two key cryospheric variables for monitoring
in permafrost regions [WMO, 1997].In 1999,
the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost
(GTN-P) was established under the GCOS/
GTOS with the assistance of the International
Permafrost Association (IPA). Overviews of the
GTN-P program, its goals and establishment,
activities, progress, and planned future steps
are given in Burgess et al. [2000].
Some 370 boreholes from 16 countries (Fig­
ure 1) have been identified as candidate sites
for inclusion in the GTN-P borehole thermal
monitoring system.The majority of the bore­
holes are between 10 and 125 m deep, and
are in the Northern Hemisphere. The inventory
of candidate boreholes, site meta-data, and
background material on the GTN-P are avail­
able on the GTN-P Web site (http://sts.gsc.
nrcan.gc.ca/gtnp/index.html), which is hosted
| i i i i , i a i
I960 1970 1980 1990 2000
by the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC).
An overview of the principal programs and
some major findings are summarized here
and results presented in Table 1.
Permafrost temperatures for most Russian
boreholes were measured only once or several
times during short time intervals in the 1970s,
1980s, or 1990s. Fortunately many of these sites
are still accessible for repeat measurements.
At least three groups of Russian sites (central
and southern Yakutia, northern West Siberia,
and the European Russian North) have been
monitored for a longer period of time. In
northern West Siberia (Yamal Peninsula),
there is a group of nine, 10-m boreholes where
temperatures were measured since 1979. A
comprehensive network was also established
in the European Russian North, involving
more than 40 boreholes with temperature
measurements taken for the last 20 to 30 years
[Oberman and Mazhitova, 2001 ].
There are another half dozen investigations
in Russia where permafrost temperatures
in a limited number of boreholes have been
measured during the last two to three decades.
Existing and new boreholes are also available
for monitoring in China, Mongolia, and Kaza­
khstan. In Europe, the EU project on Perma­
frost and Climate in Europe (PACE) recently
completed the installation of 100-m cables in
eight boreholes, from the Sierra Nevada in the
south, to Svalbard in the north. Permafrost
Monitoring Switzerland (PERMOS) has a net­
work of 12 boreholes.
In Alaska, at least three groups of boreholes
have been monitored. First, permafrost
temperatures in deep boreholes on the North
Slope have been measured periodically by
USGS personnel since the 1950s [Lachenbruch
and Marshall, 1986] .Second, weekly to monthly
permafrost temperature measurements at sev­
eral locations at the Barrow Permafrost Obser­
vatory and its vicinity and within the discon­
tinuous permafrost zone were performed in
the 1950s and 1960s [Brewer, 1958].The depths
of these boreholes vary from 10-15 m to more
than 100 m.Third,a very comprehensive system
of permafrost observatories was established in

the late 1970s and early 1980s by the Geophys­
ical Institute, University of Alaska-Fairbanks
along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline and at other
locations in Alaska [Osterkamp and Romanovsky,
1999; Romanovsky and Osterkamp, 2001 ].
Depths of these boreholes are typically 60 to
80 m and the frequency of measurements is
usually annual. As a result of this effort, unin­
terrupted permafrost temperature records 20
years long have been obtained along the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
Alaskan transect, which spans the entire
permafrost zone in Alaska.
The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) is
responsible for coordinating and implement­
ing the framework and infrastructure for a
national permafrost monitoring network.
About 75 thermal monitoring sites are operated
by government and university scientists. GSC
maintains a network of more than 20 boreholes
(generally up to 20 m deep) established since
the mid-1980s in the Mackenzie Valley and
Delta, some of which are operated in collabo­
ration with Environment Canada; and Agricul­
ture Canada, and a network of High Arctic
observatories.The Universite Laval network of
30 boreholes, up to 20 m deep, was established
between 1979 and 1994 in northern Quebec.
Cooling of about 0.1°C/year of permafrost at
depths of 10 m was observed here from the
late-1980s to the mid-1990s [Allard et al,
1995]. Since 1996, however, a warming trend
has been observed [Brown et al, 2000]. Other
monitoring sites are located in the Yukon
Territory, Nunavut, and the Cordillera.
Conclusions
A comprehensive international permafrost
temperature monitoring system is emerging
with a foundation that will enable it to
successfully address the numerous climate
change issues in the high-latitude and alpine
permafrost regions.The data obtained as a
result of these efforts will be disseminated to
the scientific community through the GTN-P
These data will serve not only for direct detec­
tion and tracking of climatic changes, but will
also be used as ground truth information for
verification of GCM outputs.This coordinated
endeavor will provide crucial information not
only for scientists studying various aspects of
the cryopshere, but also to the stakeholders,
New Receiver Network Advances
Long-range Lightning Monitoring
PAGES 589,594-595
An experimental long-range lightning detec­
tion system (ZEUS) based on a network of six
very low-frequency (VLF) receivers is being
implemented and operated by the National
Observatory of Athens and the University of
Connecticut.The system hardware takes
advantage of the latest computing technology
signal processing algorithms, geographic posi­
tioning systems (GPS), and communications
networking to improve the state-of-the-art in
Eos, Vol. 8 3 , No. 5 0 , 1 0 December 2 0 0 2
politicians, and other decision-makers in
northern countries and mountain regions, and
to the general public.This network will also
play the role of an "early warning system" of the
negative consequences of climate change in
the permafrost regions, and will support and
facilitate the development and implementation
of adaptation measures to reduce these
impacts.
Acknowledgments
Funding for this research was provided by
the U.S. NSF Office of Polar Programs (grants
OPP-9721347,OPP-9732126,and OPP-9870635),
under the auspices of the National Science
Foundation, the International Arctic Research
Center, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, and by
the Geological Survey of Canada and the Gov­
ernment of Canada's Action Plan 2000 and
Climate Change Action Fund. We are grateful
to M.C. Brewer for sharing his Barrow sites
and data acquired under the auspices of the
U.S. Geological Survey, and the logistical sup­
port of the Barrow Arctic Science Consortium
(BASC) in establishing the Barrow Observatory
Authors
VRomanovsky, Geophysical Institute, University
of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA; M Burgess and
S. Smith, Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa;
K. Yoshikawa, Water and Environmental
Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks,
USA; and 1 Brown, International Permafrost
Association
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receiver design at long-range frequencies.The
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Italy; and Evora, Portugal. Deployment of the
ZEUS receivers was completed on 15 June 2001.
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Lightning detection has been performed
routinely by the scientific community since
the late 1940s.The first lighting studies were
launched mainly to investigate the propagation
of electromagnetic waves excited by lightning
strokes.Today, lightning research is focused
primarily on continuous long-range thunder­
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concentration, air aviation safety, and—most
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propagating electromagnetic wave [Grandt,
1992]; and the arrival time difference (ATD)
 Eos, Vol. 8 3 , No. 5 0 , 1 0 D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 2

Candidate Boreholes for Permafrost Thermal Monitoring

M a p compiled b y S.L. Smith, Geological Survey of Canada, March, 2 0 0 1

Fig. 1. Permafrost distribution in the Northern Hemisphere and location of candidate boreholes
for Permafrost Thermal Monitoring System.

- 1 4 I i I i I i I i I i I i I i I i I I
1930 1940 1 9 5 0 1960 1 9 7 0 1980 1990 2000

T I M E (years)
Fig. 3. Calculated mean annual temperatures in the active layer (at the depth of 8 cm) and near-
surface permafrost (between 0.5 and 15 m) using a model calibrated for the Barrow site and the
data from the Barrow meteorological station.