ESTIMATION OF RAINFALL USING MACHINE LEARNING METHODS

Flow Chart:

Methodology:
Dataset:
 Data has 36 sub divisions and 19 attributes (individual months, annual, combinations
of 3 consecutive months).
 For some of the subdivisions data is from 1950 to 2015.
 All the attributes has the sum of amount of rainfall in mm.

Pre-processing of Data:

1. Importing the libraries

import numpy as np # used for handling numbers

import pandas as pd # used for handling the dataset

2. Importing the Dataset

3. Handling of Missing Data

 Missing values can be replaced by the mean of the values.

4. Feature Reduction

A high-dimensional dataset is a dataset that has a great number of columns (or

variables). Such a dataset presents many mathematical or computational challenges. 
We can find a subset of the variables to represent the same level of information in the
data, or transform the variables to a new set of variables without losing much
information.

One of the method used for feature reduction is PCA.The idea of principal component
analysis (PCA) is to reduce the dimensionality of a dataset consisting of a large
number of related variables, while retaining as much variance in the data as possible.
PCA finds a set of new variables that the original variables are just their linear
combinations.

5. Splitting the dataset into training and testing datasets

Machine learning Techniques Applied:

Linear Regression:

Linear regression is used for finding linear relationship between target and one or more
predictors

Support Vector Regression:

SVR uses the same basic idea as Support Vector Machine (SVM), a classification algorithm,
but applies it to predict real values rather than a class. SVR acknowledges the presence of
non-linearity in the data and provides a proficient prediction model.

Calculating Error:

1. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is the mean of the absolute value of the errors. It is
calculated as:

Mean Absolute Error

2. Mean Squared Error (MSE) is the mean of the squared errors and is calculated as:
Mean Squared Error

3. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is the square root of the mean of the squared errors:

Root Mean Squared Error