The Fermi paradox, named after Italian-American physicist Enrico Fermi, is the

apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial

civilizations and various high estimates for their probability (such as some
optimistic estimates for the Drake equation).[1][2]

Michael H. Hart formalized the basic points of the argument in a 1975 paper.[3]
They include the following:

There are billions of stars in the Milky Way similar to the Sun.[4][5]
With high probability, some of these stars have Earth-like planets,[6][7] and if
the Earth is typical, some may have already developed intelligent life.
Some of these civilizations may have developed interstellar travel, a step the
Earth is investigating now.
Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way
galaxy could be completely traversed in a few million years.[3]
And since many of the stars similar to the Sun are billions of years older, this
would seem to provide plenty of time.[8][9]
According to this line of reasoning, the Earth should have already been visited by
an extraterrestrial civilization, or at least their probes.

Although he was not the first to consider this question, Fermi's name is associated
with the paradox because of a casual conversation in the summer of 1950 with fellow
physicists Edward Teller, Herbert York and Emil Konopinski. While walking to lunch,
the men discussed recent UFO reports and the possibility of faster-than-light
travel. The conversation moved on to other topics, until during lunch Fermi
allegedly said suddenly, "But where is everybody?" (although the exact quote is
uncertain).[10][11]

There have been many attempts to explain the Fermi paradox,[12][13] primarily
suggesting that intelligent extraterrestrial beings are extremely rare, that the
lifetime of such civilizations is short, or that they exist but (for various
reasons) we see no evidence.

History
Fermi was not the first to ask the question. An earlier implicit mention was by
Konstantin Tsiolkovsky in an unpublished manuscript from 1933.[14] He noted "people
deny the presence of intelligent beings on the planets of the universe" because
"(i) if such beings exist they would have visited Earth, and (ii) if such
civilizations existed then they would have given us some sign of their existence."
This was not a paradox for others, who took this to imply the absence of ETs. But
it was one for him, since he believed in extraterrestrial life and the possibility
of space travel. Therefore, he proposed what is now known as the zoo hypothesis and
speculated that mankind is not yet ready for higher beings to contact us.[15] That
Tsiolkovsky himself may not have been the first to discover the paradox is
suggested by his above-mentioned reference to other people's reasons for denying
the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations.

In 1975, Michael H. Hart published a detailed examination of the paradox,[3] which

has since become a theoretical reference point for much of the research into what
is now sometimes known as the Fermi–Hart paradox.[16] Geoffrey A. Landis prefers
that name on the grounds that "while Fermi is credited with first asking the
question, Hart was the first to do a rigorous analysis showing that the problem is
not trivial, and also the first to publish his results".[17] Robert H. Gray argues
that the term Fermi paradox is a misnomer, since in his view it is neither a
paradox nor due to Fermi; he instead prefers the name Hart–Tipler argument,
acknowledging Michael Hart as its originator, but also the substantial contribution
of Frank J. Tipler in extending Hart's arguments.[18]

Other names closely related to Fermi's question ("Where are they?") include the
Great Silence,[19][20][21][22] and silentium universi[22] (Latin for "silence of
the universe"), though these only refer to one portion of the Fermi Paradox, that
we see no evidence of other civilizations.

Original conversation(s)

Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States
At Los Alamos National Laboratory in the summer of 1950, Fermi and co-workers Emil
Konopinski, Edward Teller, and Herbert York had one or several casual lunchtime
conversation(s).[10][23]

Herb York does not remember a previous conversation, although he says it makes
sense given how all three later reacted to Fermi's outburst. Teller remembers seven
or eight of them at the table, so he may well be remembering a different previous
conversation.[10][note 1][note 2]

In one version, the three men discussed a spate of recent UFO reports while walking
to lunch. Konopinski remembered mentioning a magazine cartoon which showed aliens
stealing New York City trash cans,[24] and as he wrote years later, "More amusing
was Fermi's comment, that it was a very reasonable theory since it accounted for
two separate phenomena."[10][note 3]

Teller remembered Fermi asking him, "Edward, what do you think. How probable is it
that within the next ten years we shall have clear evidence of a material object
moving faster than light?" Teller said, "10^-6" (one in a million). Fermi said,
"This is much too low. The probability is more like ten percent" (which Teller
wrote in 1984 was "the well known figure for a Fermi miracle").[10]

At lunch, Fermi suddenly exclaimed, "Where are they?" (Teller's remembrance), or

"Don't you ever wonder where everybody is?" (York's remembrance), or "But where is
everybody?" (Konopinski's remembrance).[10]

Teller wrote, "The result of his question was general laughter because of the
strange fact that in spite of Fermi's question coming from the clear blue,
everybody around the table seemed to understand at once that he was talking about
extraterrestrial life."[10]

York wrote, "Somehow . . . we all knew he meant extra-terrestrials."[note 4]

However, Emil Konopinski was not emphatic that he immediately knew Fermi was
referring to possible aliens, merely writing "It was his way of putting it that
drew laughs from us."[10]

Regarding the continuation of the conversation, York wrote in 1984 that Fermi
"followed up with a series of calculations on the probability of earthlike planets,
the probability of life given an earth, the probability of humans given life, the
likely rise and duration of high technology, and so on. He concluded on the basis
of such calculations that we ought to have been visited long ago and many times
over."[10]

Teller remembers that not much came of this conversation "except perhaps a
statement that the distances to the next location of living beings may be very
great and that, indeed, as far as our galaxy is concerned, we are living somewhere
in the sticks, far removed from the metropolitan area of the galactic center."[10]

Fermi died of cancer in 1954. However, in letters to the three surviving men
decades later in 1984, Dr. Eric Jones of Los Alamos was able to partially put the
original conversation back together. He informed each of the men that he wished to
include a reasonably accurate version or composite in the written proceedings he
was putting together for a previously-held conference entitled "Interstellar
Migration and the Human Experience."[10][25]

Jones first sent a letter to Edward Teller which included a secondhand account from
Hans Mark. Teller responded, and then Jones sent Teller's letter to Herbert York.
York responded, and finally, Jones sent both Teller's and York's letters to Emil
Konopinski who also responded. Furthermore, Konopinski was able to later identify a
cartoon which Jones found as the one involved in the conversation and thereby help
to settle the time period as being the summer of 1950.