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The Very Real Prospect of 5 Oil
The Very Real Prospect of 5 Oil
The Very Real Prospect of 5 Oil
The Greenlight
Who Will Win The Oil
Price War? PUBLISHED 3 HOURS
AGO
PUBLISHED 3 HOURS AGO
Mexico’s Budget Is
The Most Exciting
Protected By Its
Green Startups To
Mega Oil Hedge
Watch In 2020
PUBLISHED 19 HOURS AGO PUBLISHED 4 HOURS
AGO
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The Texas Shale
MOST POPULAR Patch Is Considering
The Unthinkable
PUBLISHED 19 HOURS
AGO
Green Hydrogen Is
Saudi Arabia’s Oil War About To Go
Could Bankrupt The Mainstream
Kingdom PUBLISHED 20 HOURS
AGO
The Inevitable
Outcome Of The Oil COVID-19 Could
Price War Spark The Next 'Arab
The New Saudi Plan Spring'
To Send Oil Prices PUBLISHED 21 HOURS
Lower
PUBLISHED 21 HOURS
Lower AGO
Russia Makes Move
MORE NEWS
On Antarctica’s 513
Billion Barrels Of Oil
Citi: $5 oil is possible. Citigroup laid out a pessimistic scenario in which WTI falls
to $5 per barrel. Energy Aspects said Brent could fall to $10. Mizuho Securities said
some oil could even fall into negative territory absent shale shut ins. “This is
Operation Desert Storm, Enron, 9/11, Hurricane Katrina/Rita, Lehman Bros,
combined,” Stephen Schork, president of the energy consultancy Schork Group
Inc., told Bloomberg.
Majors could store jet fuel at sea. Oil companies are rushing to store oil at sea,
but the glut has become so severe that the majors are looking at even storing jet
fuel at sea. That practice is rare because jet fuel degrades more quickly than other
fuels and is sensitive to contamination. “The industry generally expects products will
be used within three months of being produced,” said George Hoekstra, an
independent consultant, told Reuters.
Moody’s: Oilfield services most at risk of credit shock. Moody’s said that
weaker oilfield services companies are the most vulnerable to a credit shock.
Roughly $32 billion in debt in oilfield services falls due between this year and 2024.
Smaller regional players “face the brunt of the sector’s weakness, and therefore the
greatest refinancing risk.”
Refiners look to cut processing. Low oil prices are typically good for refiners, but
demand destruction is putting refiners in a bind. Refining margins for transportation
fuels fell into negative territory in Europe and Asia. Marathon (NYSE: MPC) cut
production at its Los Angeles refinery, California’s largest. Meanwhile, a growing
number of refiners are sending staff home because of the coronavirus, including
HollyFrontier (NYSE: HFC), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) and Valero
(NYSE: VLO).
Total to cut spending and freeze recruitment. Total (NYSE: TOT) said that it
would halt its share buyback program, its recruitment program and also cut capex,
perhaps by as much as 20 percent.
Iraq calls for emergency meeting. Iraq’s oil minister called for an emergency
OPEC meeting, but a meeting seems unlikely before June.
Shale drillers getting crushed. More shale drillers are exploring debt restructuring
as WTI sinks into the mid-$20s.
Shale industry lost $2.1 billion last year. A survey of 34 North American shale-
focused drillers reported a combined $2.1 billion in 2019, according to IEEFA. That
capped off a decade in which they spent $189 billion more than they generated.
Capex cuts top $31 billion. The global oil and gas industry has already slashed
$31 billion from spending plans this month, following the historic collapse in prices.
Natural gas prices could rise on shale knockout. With the Permian basin on the
ropes, associated gas production could decline as drilling dries up, tightening up the
gas market. “We increase our 2021 price forecast to $2.45/MMbtu as we expect to
see accelerating production declines next year,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch
wrote in a note. At the same time, gas demand in the power sector is down as the
U.S. goes on lockdown and appears set to enter into economic recession.
Oil crash could destroy biofuels market. The crash in oil prices makes ethanol
comparatively expensive around the world.