Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Econometrics Sep 2018 Thanh Binh Crime Rate PDF
Econometrics Sep 2018 Thanh Binh Crime Rate PDF
Econometrics Sep 2018 Thanh Binh Crime Rate PDF
ECONOMETRIC REPORT
Hanoi, 2018
Group 7 Econometric Report
Table of Contents
II. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 3
III. Literature overview ............................................................................................... 3
1. Questions of interest ........................................................................................................... 3
2. Procedure and program used .............................................................................................. 3
IV. Economic model ..................................................................................................... 4
1. Specifying the object for modeling .................................................................................... 4
2. Defining the target for modeling by the choice of the variables to analyze, denoted
xi 4
3. Embedding that target in a general unrestricted model (GUM) ......................................... 4
V. Econometric model .................................................................................................. 5
VI. Data collection ........................................................................................................ 5
1. Data overview .................................................................................................................... 5
2. Data description.................................................................................................................. 5
VII. Estimation of econometric model ........................................................................ 6
1. Checking the correlation among variables ......................................................................... 6
2. Regression run .................................................................................................................... 8
VIII. Check multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity ............................................... 9
1. Multicollinearity ................................................................................................................. 9
2. Heteroskedasticity ............................................................................................................ 10
IX. Hypothesis postulated .......................................................................................... 12
1. The impact of neighborhood factors ................................................................................ 12
2. The impact of accessibility factors ................................................................................... 13
X. Result analysis & Policy implication .................................................................... 14
XI. Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 15
XII. References............................................................................................................ 16
2
Group 7 Econometric Report
I. Introduction
As much as Economy is a meaningful science that determines the social development in
general and national growth in particular, Econometrics is the use of statistical techniques
to understand those issues and test theories. Without evidence, economic theories are
abstract and might have no bearing on reality (even if they are completely rigorous).
Econometrics is a set of tools we can use to confront theory with real-world data.
Given the data set, our group, which includes three members: Nguyen Ha Trang, Nguyen Mai
Thuy Tien, and Nguyen Thi Lan Huong, follows the methodology of econometric comprising
eight steps to analyze the data. Note that because of the lack of information on the data set, all
inferences of abbreviations and others are based on assumptions and self-research. As a result,
we hope to have shown clearly our logic and reasoning of analysis.
To the extent of purpose and resources, there are still deficiencies in this report, but we look
forward to providing readers with a decent view of the overall of the data set given and the
knowledge that we have gained through Dr. Dinh Thanh Binh’s Econometrics course.
In following parts, models are going to be built, data are going to be used in order to run the
regression model and then the results are going to be analyzed to finally answer the question
of interest above.
2. Procedure and program used
Procedure
Step 1: Questions of interest
Step 2: Economic model
Step 3: Econometric model
Step 4: Data collection
Step 5: Estimation of econometric model
Step 6: Check multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity
Step 7: Hypothesis postulated
Step 8: Result analysis & Policy implication
Stata program is primarily used to analyze the data and run the regression.
3
Group 7 Econometric Report
Empirical model discovery and theory evaluation are suggested to involve five key steps, but
for the limitation of purpose and resources, this part of the report only follows three of them:
(1) specifying the object for modeling, (2) defining the target for modeling, (3) embedding that
target in a general unrestricted model.
1. Specifying the object for modeling
price f x (1)
As such, this report finds the relationship between housing price, which is the object for
modeling, and each of relating factors including structure, neighborhood, accessibility, and air
pollution ones.
2. Defining the target for modeling by the choice of the variables to analyze, denoted
xi
As mentioned above, there are four main categories that are expected to affect housing prices:
structure, neighborhood, accessibility, and air pollution. Hence, the choices of xi would be
such variables that constitute them. After thorough research, factors have been narrowed down
to eight significant ones: (structure) number of rooms, (neighborhood) crimes, property tax, the
percentage of people of low status, student-teacher ratio, (accessibility) distances to
employment centers, accessibility to radial highways and (air pollution) nitrous oxide.
3. Embedding that target in a general unrestricted model (GUM)
In its simplest acceptable representation (which will later be specified in the econometric
model), the GUM of is determined to be:
lprice f crim, nox, rooms, dist , radial , proptax, stratio, lowstat
A brief description of each variable is given in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1: Definition of variables in the Housing Price model
Variable Definition
lprice logarithm of median housing price, $
crime crimes committed per capita
nox nitrous oxide, parts per 100 million square
rooms average number of rooms per house
dist weighted distances to 5 employment centers
radial accessibility index to radial highways
proptax property tax per $1000
stratio average student-teacher ratio
lowstat percentage of people of low status
4
Group 7 Econometric Report
From this model, this report is interested in explaining lprice in terms of each of the eight
independent variables ( crim, nox, rooms, dist , radio, proptax, stratio ).
V. Data collection
1. Data overview
This set of data is a secondary one, as they are collected from a given source.
Data source: Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of
Collinearity, by D.A. Belsey, E. Kuh, and R. Welsch, 1990. New York: Wiley
The structure of Economic data: cross-sectional data
2. Data description
To get statistic indicators of the variables, in Stata, the following command is used:
sum lprice crime nox rooms dist radial proptax stratio lowstat
The result is shown in Exhibit 2.
Exhibit 2: Statistic indicators of variables in the Housing Price model
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
5
Group 7 Econometric Report
where:
Obs is the number of observations
Std. Dev is the standard deviation of the variable
Min is the minimum value of the variable
Max is the maximum value of the variable
lprice 1.0000
crime -0.5275 1.0000
nox -0.5088 0.4212 1.0000
rooms 0.6329 -0.2188 -0.3028 1.0000
dist 0.3420 -0.3799 -0.7702 0.2054 1.0000
radial -0.4810 0.6254 0.6103 -0.2098 -0.4951 1.0000
proptax -0.5597 0.5828 0.6670 -0.2921 -0.5344 0.9102 1.0000
stratio -0.4976 0.2887 0.1869 -0.3540 -0.2293 0.4642 0.4542 1.0000
lowstat -0.7914 0.4470 0.5856 -0.6096 -0.4956 0.4760 0.5276 0.3654 1.0000
From the matrix, it can be inferred that the correlation between lprice and each of the
independent variable is decent enough to run the regression model. Specifically:
- lprice and crime have a moderate downhill relationship
- lprice and nox have a moderate downhill relationship
- lprice and nox have a moderate uphill relationship
- lprice and dist have a weak uphill relationship
- lprice and radial have a moderate downhill relationship
- lprice and proptax have a moderate downhill relationship
- lprice and proptax have a moderate downhill relationship
- lprice and proptax have a strong downhill relationship
The correlation between each pair of variables can be visualized using the scatter command
in Stata.
The result is shown in Exhibit 4.
6
Group 7 Econometric Report
7
Group 7 Econometric Report
2. Regression run
Having checked the required condition of correlation among variables, the regression model is
ready to run. In Stata, this is done by using the command:
reg lprice crime nox rooms dist radial proptax stratio lowstat
-
0 11.1951 : When all the independent variables are zero, the expected value of housing
11.1951
price is 10 .
0.0112 : When the number of crime committed per capita increases by one, the
- 1
expected value of housing price decreases by 1.12%.
0.0755 : When nitrous oxide increases by one part per 100 million square, the
- 2
expected value of housing price decreases by 7.55%.
0.0997 : When the number of rooms increases by one, the expected value of
- 3
housing price decreases by 9.97%.
0.0464 : When the distance to 5 employment centers increases by one unit, the
- 4
expected value of housing price decreases by 4.64%.
8
Group 7 Econometric Report
0.013 : When the accessibility index to radial highways increases by one unit, the
- 5
expected value of housing price increases by 4.64%.
0.0062 : When the property tax per $1000 increases by $1, the expected value of
- 6
housing price decreases by 0.62%.
0.0413 : When the student-teacher ratio increases by 1%, the expected value of
- 7
housing price decreases by 4.13%.
- 8
0.028 : When the percentage of people of lower status increases by 1%, the
expected value of housing price decreases by 2.80%.
The coefficient of determination R squared 0.7669 : all independent variables (crime,
nox, rooms, dist, radial, proptax, stratio, lowstat) jointly explain 76.69% of the variation
in the dependent variable (lprice); other factors that are not mentioned explain the
remaining 23.31% of the variation in the lprice.
Other indicators:
- Adjusted coefficient of determination adj R-squared = 0.7631
- Total Sum of Squares TSS = 84.5822
- Explained Sum of Squares ESS = 64.8619
- Residual Sum of Squares RSS = 19.7203
- The degree of freedom of Model Dfm = 8
- The degree of freedom of residual Dfr = 497
Based on the data collected from the table, the sample regression function is established:
SRF : lprice 11.2 0.01crime 0.08nox 0.1rooms 0.05dist 0.01radial 0.01 proptax
0.03stratio 0.03lowstat
VII. Check multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity
1. Multicollinearity
Multicollinearity is the high degree of correlation amongst the explanatory variables, which
may make it difficult to separate out the effects of the individual regressors, standard errors
may be overestimated and t-value depressed. The problem of Multicollinearity can be detected
by examining the correlation matrix of regressors and carry out auxiliary regressions amongst
them. In Stata, the vif command is used, which stand for variance inflation factor.
Exhibit 6 shows the result.
Exhibit 6: Multicollinearity test
Variable VIF 1/VIF
9
Group 7 Econometric Report
The value of VIF here is lower than 10, indicating that Multicollinearity is not too worrisome
a problem for this set of data.
2. Heteroskedasticity
Heteroskedasticity indicates that the variance of the error term is not constant, which makes
the least squares results no longer efficient and t tests and F tests results may be misleading.
The problem of Heteroskedasticity can be detected by plotting the residuals against each of the
regressors, most popularly the White’s test. It can be remedied by respecifying the model –
look for other missing variables. In Stata, the imtest white command is used, which stands
for information matric test.
. imtest, white
chi2(44) = 235.31
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Source chi2 df p
At the 5% significance level, there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that this set of data meets the problem of Heteroskedasticity.
Another way to test if Heteroskedasticity exists is to graph the residual-versus-fitted plot, which
can be generated using the rvfplot, yline (0) line command in Stata.
10
Group 7 Econometric Report
In a well-fitted model, there should be no pattern to the residuals plotted against the fitted
values - something not true of our model. Ignoring the outliers at the top center of the graph,
we see curvature in the pattern of the residuals, suggesting a violation of the assumption that
price is linear in our independent variables. We might also have seen increasing or decreasing
variation in the residuals— heteroskedasticity.
To fix the problem, robust standard errors are used to relax the assumption that errors are both
independent and identically distributed. In Stata, regression is rerun with the robust option,
using the command:
reg lprice crime nox rooms dist radial proptax stratio lowstat, robust
Robust
lprice Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
11
Group 7 Econometric Report
Note that comparing the results with the earlier regression, none of the coefficient estimates
changed, but the standard errors and hence the t values are different, which gives reasonably
more accurate p values.
H o : 1 6 7 0
which is expressed as:
H1 : at least one j 0
In Stata, the test statistic F is calculated using the command:
test crime proptax lowstat stratio
( 1) crime = 0
( 2) proptax = 0
( 3) lowstat = 0
( 4) stratio = 0
F( 4, 497) = 112.88
Prob > F = 0.0000
As a result, there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that at least
one independent variable in the subset (crime, proptax, stratio, lowstat) does have
explanatory or predictive power on lprice, so we don’t reduce the model by dropping out this
subset.
12
Group 7 Econometric Report
H o : 4 5 0
which is expressed as:
H1 : at least one j 0
In Stata, the test statistic F is calculated using the command:
test dist radial
( 1) dist = 0
( 2) radial = 0
F( 2, 497) = 34.91
Prob > F = 0.0000
As a result, there is enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that at least one
independent variable in the subset (dist, radial) does have explanatory or predictive power on
lprice, so we don’t reduce the model by dropping out this subset.
13
Group 7 Econometric Report
Following the analysis of data, regression model run and hypothesis testing, it can be concluded
that structure, neighborhood, accessibility, and air pollution factors do affect, or at least
statistically so, the housing prices. Therefore, tenants, investors or constructors should take all
of these ingredients into account when making deals.
14
Group 7 Econometric Report
X. Conclusion
This report is completed on the dedicated contribution of each member and the knowledge from
our study in Econometrics. This also provides us with a good opportunity to practice what we
have learned and to get a deeper understanding of data analysis and relevant testing. From this
useful application, we hope that our work can somehow suggest the relationship between the
housing prices and structure, neighborhood, accessibility, air pollution factors.
Again, due to the limitation of understanding and resources, our report may contain
misinterpretations. We hope that Dr. Le Thanh Binh and readers can give us constructive
comments on the report so that we would improve ourselves and do better in the future.
Sincerely,
Group 7
15
Group 7 Econometric Report
XI. References
1. https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/seminars/Hendry_Feb_2011.pdf
2. http://pages.hmc.edu/evans/chap1.pdf
3. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.926.5532&rep=rep1&type=pdf
4. D.A. Belsey, E. Kuh, and R. Welsch, Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data
and Sources of Collinearity, New York: Wiley (1990).
16