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A2 Notes CH 11 Probability and Statistics PDF
A2 Notes CH 11 Probability and Statistics PDF
Example 1: A college offers 3 different English courses, 5 different math course, 2 different art
courses, and 4 different history courses. In how many ways could a student choose 1 of each
type of course?
Frequently with counting problems you will use combinations of letters and digits.
Permutations
A permutation is an _______________________________ of items in a particular order.
Example 2:
How many ways can 5 Scrabble tiles be placed in a row?
Example 3 a) How many ways can 10 different b) How many ways can you arrange
textbooks be arranged on a shelf? 8 different shirts on hangers in your closet?
12! 8!
A) 5! B) 15! C) D)
10! 4!
10! 11!
E) 5(4!) F) G)
6!4! 7!2!
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COUNTING THE
NUMBER OF
PERMUTATIONS
Sometimes we want
to arrange items
from a set, but we
don’t want to use
ALL the items
Example 5:
Ten students are in a race. How many ways can 10 runners finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd? (no ties allowed)
Most scientific calculators have and nPr function to compute the number of permutations of n objects
taken r at a time.
TI 83
Type in “n” value
Press “MATH” button.
Arrow over to PRB
Choose option #2
Type in “r” value
Hit enter
n P r = 10 P 3
a) 12P8 b) 20P5
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Example 7: The drama club has 20 members. In how many ways cans you choose a president, a vice
president, and a secretary?
Example 8: A teacher is making a seating chart. In how many ways can she assign 35 students to the
eight chairs in the front row?
Example 10: How many ways can you arrange the letters of the word Repetition?
“PARTY” ?
If you are assigning position to
things and some of the items are
identical…
Example:
Example 11: How many ways can you arrange the letters of the word N items
“HAPPY”? x are the same
y are the same
#arrangements = N!
x! y!
Example 12: How many ways can you arrange the letters of the word
“MISSISSIPPI” ?
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Example 13:
How many ways can you make a stack of 5 blocks, 3 of which are red and 2 of which are blue?
Combinations
A combination is a _____________________
of items in which order doesn’t necessarily
matter.
____________________________
____________________________
The ORDER you write down your answers doesn’t matter since you were not asked to RANK the actors.
If you write down: “Christian & Chiwetel” and your neighbor writes down: “Chiwetel & Christian”, you
would both claim to have the same favorite actors.
Example 2:
“How many ways can you select three tiles from a set of five?”
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Example 4: For each problem, consider whether you should use counting principle, permutations, or
combinations to solve. Then find the indicated number of things.
a) A chemistry teacher divides his class into eight groups. Each group submits one drawing of the
molecular structure of water. In how many different ways can he select 4 of the drawings to display?
b) You will draw winners from a total of 25 tickets in a raffle. The first ticket wins $100. The second
ticket wins $50. The third ticket wins $10. In how many different ways can you draw the three
winning tickets?
c) Donna Noble is buying wedding clothes. She has it narrowed down to 5 dresses, 2 veils, and 8 pairs
of shoes. How many possible outfits can she make by choosing 1 dress, 1 veil, and 1 pair of shoes?
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(Example 4 continued)
d) How many “words” can you make from the letters of the word “BASEBALL”?
e) How many blends of three spices can you make from a selection of 8 spices from the spice rack?
How many ways can they schedule interviews for 5 people tomorrow?
h) A combination lock has 3 digits. How many combinations are possible if you may only use the digits
0 to 9?
11.2 Probability
Actually collecting
data:
Example 1:
Of the 60 vehicles in the teachers’ parking lot today, 15 are pickup trucks.
What is the experimental probability that a vehicle in the lot is a pickup truck?
What is the probability that a vehicle is NOT a pickup truck?
Example 2:
A softball player got a hit in 20 of her last 50 times at bat.
What is the experimental probability that she will get a hit in her next at bat?
When each outcome has the same chance of occurring, the outcomes are called
equally likely outcomes.
Sample Space:
Equally likely?
Example 3: Given a standard number cube, what is the theoretical probability of each event?
Example 4: Given a standard deck of 52 playing cards, what is the theoretical probability of each event?
Example 5: You open a bag of jawbreakers and find 15 red, 10 orange, 8 green, and 7 purple. What is the
theoretical probability of each event?
Combinatorics
When you are simultaneously choosing several things at once, you may need to use combinations to determine
the probability of an event.
Example 6: A student has a personal library of 30 zombie movies and 10 action movies. If the student
randomly grabs 6 movies to take on vacation, what are the following theoretical probabilities?
Sample Space:
Example 7: What is the theoretical probability of being dealt the following 5 card hands from a standard 52-card
deck?
Sample Space:
Consider the following: I have a stack of 10 cards each with a different number from 1 to 10.
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
You draw 1 card from the stack. What is the probability that the card is an even number?
You choose 3 cards from the stack. What is the probability that all three cards are even?
You choose 3 cards from the stack. What is the probability of getting exactly 2 odd-numbered
cards?
You roll a standard number cube and flip a coin. What is the probability of getting a even
number and heads?
You flip a coin 6 times in a row. What is the probability of getting all heads?
P(3 heads)
c) There are 10 diet cokes and 5 regular cokes. There are 8 bags of Doritos and 12 bags of Gardettos.
P(A and B) = 0
“OR”
Cannot happen at same time. CAN happen at same time.
Mutually Exclusive Not Mutually Exclusive
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Example 5:
Students can take one foreign language at a time. Out of a total of 100 students,
37 of students take Spanish and 15 of students take French.
P(Spanish or French)
Example 6:
Students can take multiple language courses at the same time. Out of a total of 100 students,
37 take Spanish, 15 take French, and 5 take Spanish and French.
P(French ONLY)
P (French or Spanish)
Classic Problem:
A contestant is shown 3 possible doors.
Behind 1 door is a new car.
Behind the other two doors are goats.
After the contestant chooses a door, Monty opens up one of the OTHER doors to reveal a goat. The
contestant is then given the chance to keep the door they chose, or to switch doors. What should the
contestant choose?
P(1st door a car 2nd door a goat) P(female student graduate school)
Example 5: A school system compiled the following information from a survey it sent to people who were
juniors 10 years earlier.
85% of the students graduated from high school
Of the students who graduated from high school, 90% are happy with their jobs.
Of the students who did not graduate from high school, 60% are happy with their jobs.
a) What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago graduated from high school and is
happy with his or her job?
b) What is the probability that a student from the junior class 10 years ago did not graduate and is happy with
his or her present job?
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The average height of an adult male in the USA is 5 feet 9.2 inches.
(source: http://pediatrics.about.com/cs/growthcharts2/f/avg_ht_male.htm)
“Average” is a word we used to summarize a set of data. This one number can be used to represent an entire
population of people and is used to draw conclusions and make predictions about data.
Common Terms
Mean =
Median =
Mode =
_____________
Example 1:
b) The frequency table shows the number of trees in the yard of each house on one
street. What are the mean, median, and mode for the trees per yard.
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An outlier is a value that is substantially different from the rest of the data in the set.
Example 2:
The test scores were: 87, 76, 86, 79, 90, 14, 85
What is the mean test score? What number do you think is an “outlier”?
Example 3:
Identify the Maximum Value, the Minimum Value, and the Median.
The median divides the data in half. Range = Max – Min
The Lower Quartile (Q1) is the median of the lower half. Interquartile Range = Q3 –Q1
The Upper Quartile (Q3) is the median of the upper half.
Example 5: Make a box and whisker plot for the following data.
Step 2: Draw a number line with scale that covers the spread of your data.
Step 3: Above the number line: Put a dot on the minimum and maximum data values.
Draw a rectangle from the Q1 to Q3.
Draw a small vertical line through the rectangle at the median.
Draw a “whisker” horizontally from the edge of the box to each point.
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Percentiles
You receive your S.A.T. scores and are told that you scored “in the 83rd percentile for math, 78th percentile for
verbal, and 95th percentile for writing.” What does this mean?
A percentile is a score from 0 to 100 that represents the percentage of data that is ______ x.
This means that you scored the same or better than ______ of everyone else who took the test in math.
Example 6: John is told that his son is in the 58th percentile for height for 6-year-old boys.
What percentage of 6-year old boys are shorter than or at the same height as John’s son?
Interquartile Range is a Measure of how our data varies (the spread) from the MEDIAN.
Standard Deviation is a Measure of how our data varies (the spread) from the MEAN.
Example 1: You survey 2 groups of 50 students asking them to report their weight.
The more SPREAD OUT your data is from your mean, the LARGER the standard deviation.
Example 2: A large bakery regularly orders cartons of Maine blueberries. The average
weight of the cartons is supposed to be 22 ounces. Random samples of cartons from
two suppliers were weighed. The weights in ounces per cartons were:
Supplier I: 17 22 22 22 27
Supplier II: 17 19 20 27 27
a) What is the range of each set of data? What is the mean of each set of data?
b) The bakery uses 1 carton of blueberries per blueberry muffin recipe. Which supplier should they choose?
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Blueberry suppliers
Supplier I: 17 22 22 22 27
Supplier II: 17 19 20 27 27
Example 1: Use the data from to find the variance and standard deviation
𝑥 𝑥̅ 𝑥 − 𝑥̅ (𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )2 𝑥 𝑥̅ 𝑥 − 𝑥̅ (𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )2
2 2
= ∑(𝑥−𝑥)
= ∑(𝑥−𝑥)
̅ ̅
𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝜎2 𝑛
= 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝜎2 𝑛
=
70 50 30 40 35 30 30 40 15
𝑥 𝑥̅ 𝑥 − 𝑥̅ (𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )2
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Sometimes an
extraordinary factor may cause the data to be “skewed”
c) The standard deviation in the weights of female brown bears is about 10 kg. Approximately what percent of
female brown bears have weights that are 1.5 standard deviations of the mean?
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Example 2: For a population of male European eels, the mean body length is 21.1 inches and the standard
deviation is 4.7 inches. Sketch a normal curve showing eel lengths at one, two, and three standard deviations
from the mean.
a) What percentage of the students who took the test scored above 180?
b) If 250 students took the final, approximately how many scored above 135?
c) If 13.6% of the students received a B on the final, how can you describe their scores?