GROWTH IN BIOLOGICS SECTOR SET TO SLOW IN 2020

IQVIA Forecast Link: Disease

February 2020
By: David Bottom, Senior Analyst, IQVIA Forecast Link

The global pharmaceutical market is expected to reach approximately $1,169bn in value by the end of 2020, as
predicted by IQVIA’s Forecast Link platform. This represents growth of about 6% over 2019. Between 2018 and
2019, global sales grew at the same rate indicating that the net impact of expected events will not significantly
impact current trends at a global level in 2020.

Value sales by region, 2019 and 2020

Value Sales ($, Billions)

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
North Europe APAC Japan Americas MENA AUNZ
America

2019 2020

Source: IQVIA Forecast Link, Jan 2020

The drivers of value in 2020 include continued volume and implied price growth for existing products, and the
launch of new products across all regions. In 2020, launch events are expected to exceed loss of patent or
exclusivity protection (LoP) events in terms of number and value impact, in most regions.

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 Number of events by region, 2020
400
Number of Events (n) 350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
North Europe APAC Japan MENA Americas AUNZ
America

Launch LoP

Source: IQVIA Forecast Link, Jan 2020

New launches will add an estimated $33bn to global value sales in 2020, while LoP events will subtract
approximately $14bn, resulting in a net positive impact of $19bn. The net impact from events in 2020 are negligible
in AUNZ, Americas, APAC and MENA, while increased revenues from new launches in North America, Japan and
Europe will account for the majority of the impact globally.

Impact of new launch and LoP events by region, 2020

Global
North America
Japan
Europe
AUNZ
South America
MENA
APAC

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Impact of events on baseline value sales, 2020

Launch LoP

Source: IQVIA Forecast Link, Jan 2020

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Important disease markets influencing global market value in 2020

Nearly 70% of revenue losses due to LoP events in 2020 are expected to occur in four disease areas: endocrine
and metabolic, oncology, infectious diseases, and CNS diseases. Key brands used to treat diabetes, prostate and
breast cancer, Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, hepatitis C, HIV, opioid and tobacco
abuse, Alzheimer’s disease, and multiple sclerosis are expected to experience new or expanded generic and
biosimilar competition. Notably, biologics that will be exposed to biosimilar competition account for the majority of
revenue losses due to LoP events in the areas of metabolic and oncology diseases.

Revenues lost due to LoP events by disease area, 2020

ENDOCRINE & METABOLIC

ONCOLOGY
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
CNS
OTHER
GASTROENTEROLOGY
MUSCULOSKELETAL
CARDIOVASCULAR
GENITOURINARY
OPHTHALMOLOGY
RESPIRATORY
DERMATOLOGY
0 1 2 3 4

Value Sales ($, billions)

BIOLOGIC PRODUCTS NON-BIOLOGIC PRODUCTS

Source: IQVIA Forecast Link, Jan 2020

On the other hand, new launches, particularly within the CNS, endocrine and metabolic, cardiovascular and
oncology disease areas will contribute nearly 60% of new revenues in 2020. New or recently marketed products
used to treat tardive dyskinesia, multiple sclerosis, pain, diabetes, chronic ischaemic heart disease, sickle-cell
disease, anaemia, mantle cell lymphoma, B-cell lymphoma, leukaemia, and TRK fusion cancer, among others will
drive revenue growth. In 2020, new non-biologic products will generate more revenues than new biologics.

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 Revenue gains due to new launches by disease area, 2020

CNS
ENDOCRINE & METABOLIC
CARDIOVASCULAR
ONCOLOGY
RESPIRATORY
MUSCULOSKELETAL
OPHTHALMOLOGY
DERMATOLOGY
GASTROENTEROLOGY
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
GENITOURINARY
OTHER
0 2 4 6 8
Value Sales ($, Billions)

BIOLOGIC PRODUCTS NON-BIOLOGIC PRODUCTS

Source: IQVIA Forecast Link, Jan 2020

Value growth of biologics slows in 2020

While the net impact of launch and LoP events will not have a significant impact in 2020 on current global trends,
changes are expected in the biologics sector. Over the last five years, biologics have consistently outpaced non-
biologics in terms of value growth, partially due to a higher average price compared with non-biologics, but also
due to the expanding number of approved products and indications and therefore, patient populations from which
to gain market share. This trend is set to continue as biologics and non-biologics are expected to grow 9% and 4%
in terms of value, respectively, between 2019 and 2020.

Over the same period, however, biocomparables and generics are estimated to grow in value by 53% and 5%,
respectively. As a result, biologic value growth is expected to slow in 2020 due to the availability of new lower
priced biocomparables.

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 Biologic and Non-Biologic Value and Growth, 2015-2020
900 16%

800 14%
Value Sales ($, Billions)

700
12%

YoY Growth %
600
10%
500
8%
400
6%
300
4%
200

100 2%

0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Biologics value Non-Biologics value Biologics growth Non-Biologics growth

Source: IQVIA Forecast Link, Jan 2020

Global pharmaceutical market sales are expected to show a year-on-year increase of 6% from 2019 to 2020,
reaching $1,169bn. Increases in revenue are driven by continued volume and implied price growth for existing
products and a positive impact from new launch events. Non-biologics in the CNS, endocrine and metabolic, and
cardiovascular disease areas will drive the majority of revenue growth. The availability of new lower-priced
biosimilars and a more sluggish impact from new biologic launches will slow growth in the biologics sector through
2020, particularly in North America, Europe and AUNZ.

For more information on brand and country specific forecasts in any disease, please contact IQVIA and request a
demonstration of Forecast Link, an online tool containing 5 years historical and 10 years of forecast data in 73
countries, for 10,000 drugs and over 600 diseases. Forecast Link provides unrivalled breadth of coverage and is
updated quarterly.. To find out more, please visit Forecast Link: Disease.

About the Author

David Bottom is a Senior Analyst for IQVIA Forecast Link, with over 13 years’ experience in
pharmaceutical market research, competitive intelligence and forecasting, and 16 years’
experience as a pharmacist in multiple practice settings. David holds a BS in Pharmacy from
The University of Iowa, USA.

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