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Simplex Infrastructures: Performance Highlights
Simplex Infrastructures: Performance Highlights
Simplex Infrastructures: Performance Highlights
Results disappoint: For 2QFY2011, SI posted yoy top-line growth of mere 2.6% Shareholding Pattern (%)
v/s our expectation of 4.9%. Management has lowered its revenue guidance to Promoters 54.7
15% for FY2011 from 15-20%; we have factored in the same in our estimates MF / Banks / Indian Fls 27.3
and pruned our FY2011 and FY2012 estimates. OPM came in at 10.1% (10.4%). FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.7
Interest cost increased with the rates hardening from an average 5.9% in Indian Public / Others 5.4
4QFY2010 to 6.4% in 1QFY2011 and 7.2% in 2QFY2011.
Outlook and Valuation: We are downgrading the stock from Buy to Accumulate
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
on the back of: 1) poor quarterly performances and downward revision in
Sensex 11.5 20.7 7.6
earnings estimates, 2) elongated working capital cycle on account of
Simplex (5.1) (10.8) (17.1)
diversification into newer geographies, and 3) steep run-up in the last few
quarters and rich valuations v/s peers given that the company is expected to turn
in subdued growth in the near to medium term. Hence, we downgrade the stock
to Accumulate from Buy, with a revised Target Price of `521 (`573) based on 14x
FY2012E earnings.
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales (incl op. income) 4,713 4,564 5,258 6,168
% chg 67.8 (3.1) 15.2 17.3
Adj. Net Profit 116.5 127.1 150.3 184.9
% chg 29.3 9.2 18.2 23.1
FDEPS (`) 23.5 25.6 30.3 37.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6 10.0 9.8 9.5
P/E (x) 19.6 18.0 15.2 12.4 Shailesh Kanani
RoAE (%) 14.0 13.5 14.4 15.4 +91 22 -4040 3800 Ext: 321
shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
RoACE (%) 14.6 13.0 13.4 13.8
P/BV (x) 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8
Nitin Arora
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 +91 22 -4040 3800 Ext: 314
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 7.7 7.4 6.3 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
For 2QFY2011, SI posted yoy top-line growth of mere 2.6% v/s our expectation of
4.9% and lower than consensus estimates also by 10-15%. The major reasons
cited for the same were heavy rains during the quarter and de-growth by the
international segment.
SI’s order inflow for the quarter at `1,729cr (adjusting for the captive order of
`500cr) was below our expectations and implies that ordering environment for the
company has still not improved as expected. The company is also facing slowdown
on the international front (cancellation of Libyan orders in 2QFY2011 worth
`590cr) and is venturing into newer geographies leading to stretched working
capital.
Against this backdrop, we have pruned our FY2011 and FY2012 top-line estimates
to factor in the slower growth in the international segment and gestation period of
the newer segments.
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
Rail and roads
Urban Infra
On the operating front, EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 10.1% (10.4%),
tad below our estimate of 10.5%. The company continues to be conservative and
selective in order bidding and has given a guidance of EBITDA margins of ~10.0-
10.5% for FY2011. Interest cost increased with the rates hardening from an
average of 5.9% in 4QFY2010 to 6.4% in 1QFY2011 to 7.2% in 2QFY2011.
Hence, bottom-line posted de-growth of 4.4% in the quarter.
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
EBITDA (Rs cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS) PAT (Rs cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
Exhibit 7: Order inflow for 2QFY11 – Segment-wise (%) Exhibit 8: Order backlog – Segment-wise (%)
Buildings Buildings
8 Bridges 5.0 14.0 Bridges
28 21.0
Industrial Industrial
10.0
6 Marine 25.0 Marine
5 Pilling 17.0
6 0 Pilling
21 5.0
Power Power
Investment Arguments
Diversified play
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 42.6 25.4 19.6 18.0 15.2 12.4
P/CEPS 24.6 14.8 9.2 8.0 7.2 6.1
P/BV 8.3 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
EV/Sales 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6
EV/EBITDA 18.4 11.1 8.4 7.7 7.4 6.3
EV / Total Assets 3.0 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
Order Book to Sales 3.0 3.6 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 12.5 18.2 24.9 25.6 30.3 37.2
EPS (fully diluted) 10.8 18.1 23.5 25.6 30.3 37.2
Cash EPS 18.7 31.1 50.0 57.3 63.9 76.1
DPS 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5
Book Value 55.5 151.6 183.0 196.9 224.3 258.6
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 7.0 7.1 5.8 6.5 6.6 6.3
Tax retention ratio 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.3
ROIC (Post-tax) 9.8 12.0 11.2 8.8 9.3 9.5
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 7.2 10.7 11.0 6.2 7.0 6.7
Leverage (x) 2.3 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2
Operating ROE 15.9 13.5 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.0
Returns (%)
ROACE (Pre-tax) 12.2 15.8 14.6 13.0 13.4 13.8
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 12.8 16.9 15.6 13.7 13.9 14.2
ROAE 19.5 17.5 14.0 13.5 14.4 15.4
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 4.0 4.7 4.8 3.7 3.9 4.0
Inventory / Sales (days) 61 49 45 54 53 58
Receivables (days) 181 130 110 139 146 150
Payables (days) 128 130 116 141 133 141
Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 122 86 70 92 104 103
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 2.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1
Net debt to EBITDA 4.1 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.4
Interest Coverage 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.5
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)