Justice Reinvestment: A Framework for

Reducing Spending on Corrections and

Increasing Public Safety

Michael D. Thompson
Director
April 22, 2009
Justice Center
Raleigh, North Carolina
Council of State Governments
 Non-profit, non-partisan membership association of state government officials

 Represents all three branches of state government

 Provides practical, nonpartisan advice informed by the best available evidence

 Support from the U.S. Department of Justice and private grantmakers such as The
Pew Charitable Trusts

2
Overview

 Justice Reinvestment: A framework to reduce spending on

corrections and increase public safety

 Case studies illustrating the application of Justice

Reinvestment

 Applying the framework to North Carolina

National Projects

4
Justice Reinvestment: Key Funders

5
Unprecedented Momentum in the States

 Half the state supreme court chief justices seeking to establish

task forces regarding people with mental illness

 Governors and legislatures in at least one dozen states have

established statewide councils to address prisoner reentry
Landmark Federal Legislation:
Second Chance Act
Excitement and Energy
Slam into Reality

 Fiscal picture in the states is bleak.

 Prison populations are growing.

 Crime rates are creeping upwards in some areas of the country

 How do we use data to cut spending and increase public safety in those areas that are
driving crime and incarceration rates?
Justice Reinvestment Strategy

Step 1: Analyze the prison population and spending in the

communities to which people in prison often return

Step 2: Provide policymakers with options to generate savings and

increase public safety

Step 3: Quantify savings and reinvest in select communities

Step 4: Measure the impact and enhance accountability

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 Incarceration Rates in 4 Large States

State Population Probation, Jail, Prison and

Parole Population
22.8 million 767,765
16.4 adults 4.6% of adults
TX

36.1 million 752,817

26.4 adults 2.8% of adults
CA

17.1 million 436,006

13.6 adults 3.2% of adults
FL

19.2 million 264,836

14.6 adults 1.8% of adults
NY
Sources: US Census 2005; BJS “Probation and Parole in US, 2005”; jail figures from BJS
“Prison and Jail Inmates at Midyear 2005”; prison figures from BJS, Prisoners in 2005,
November 06 report 10
 Changes in Crime Rates

Population Incarceration Rate* Crime Rate*

1980: 14,229,191 1980: 226 1980: 6,030

2005: 22,859,968 2005: 691 2005: 4,862
+61% +206% -19%
TX

1980: 24,037,626 1980: 162 1980: 6,468

2005: 36,132,147 2005: 466 2005: 3,849
+50% +188% -40%
CA

1980: 9,746,324 1980: 242 1980: 6,821

2005: 17,789,864 2005: 499 2005: 4,716
+82% +106% -31%
FL

1980: 17,558,072 1980: 187 1980: 5,577

2005: 19,254,630 2005: 326 2005: 2,554
+10% +74% -54%
NY
Incarceration and Reported Index Crime Rate by FBI per 100,000 population
Source: Population US Census Historical Report; Crime, FBI Crime in US; Incarceration, BJS, 11
Prisoners in US
Overview

 Justice Reinvestment: A framework to reduce spending on

corrections and increase public safety

 Case studies illustrating the application of Justice

Reinvestment

 Applying the framework to North Carolina

 Kansas
Prison Population Projection

11500

11000

10500 1834
bed
10000 shortfall
Current Capacity (9397)
9500
$500 m
9000 10 yr Costs

8500
20% 26% $180 m
Construction
8000 increase increase
$320m
7500 Operating

7000

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 Kansas
Recidivism a Key Driver

Prison Admissions
FY2006
– 65 % of admissions
New Court
Commitments 27 percent 35 %
– 27 % of prison population

Probation
36 percent – Annual cost of $53 million
Violations

65 %

Parole
Violations 29 percent

Prob./Parole,
5 percent
New Sentence 14
Kansas
Focus on Reducing Recidivism
Before & After Release

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 Kansas: Options for Policymakers
FY2008-2016 (9 years) Projected Prison Population

11500 Status Quo

Option 1
11000 Option 2

Current Capacity: 9,397 Option 3

10500

10000 Combined Impact

9500

9000

8500

8000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

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Kansas
Estimated Savings & Reinvestment

• $80 million in projected savings

over the next 5 years

• $4.5 million reinvested in

community corrections grant
program

• $2.4 million reinvested in

expanding in-prison and
community-based program
capacity
 Kansas
Prison Population Impact
2007 Projection

Current Capacity: 9397

Impact of SB14

$80 m
5 Year Savings
 Kansas
Identifying Reinvestment Opportunities
40 percent of prison
admissions come from
two counties

August 8, 2006 19
04

20
41

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43

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 Arizona
The Problem

Prison Population Crime

• ~40,000, projected to • Despite declines in crime,

increase 50% over next Arizona still #1
10 years
• Homicide rate in Phoenix
• $2-3 billion needed is double New York City’s
rate
• $2 billion budget hole for
FY2009
• $100 million spent on
probation revocations
Prison Admissions Hotspots
Arizona, 2004

60% of the State’s prison population comes

from and returns to the Phoenix-Mesa
metropolitan area.
Prisoners
Admissions, 2004

Maricopa County
1/2 Mile Grid Map
A single neighborhood in Phoenix is home
to 1% of the state’s total population but
6.5% of the state’s prison population
Further, in 2007 the state spent more than
$70 million to incarcerate residents from a
single Phoenix zip code (85041).

South Mountain
Population = 55,000
Prison Admissions = 12.3 per 1000 adults

Ahwatukee Foothills
Population = 50,000
Prison Admissions = 1.1 per 1000 adults
Prisoners
Admissions, 2006

Maricopa County
1/2 Mile Grid Map

South Mountain Zip Code 85041

Prison Admissions = 31.8 per 1000 adults
Jail Bookings = 96.5 per 1000 adults
Probation = 25.1 per 1000 adults
 Deer Valley Prison Expenditures
Dollars, 2004
Paradise Valley

North Mountain
Maricopa County
1/2 Mile Grid Map
GLENDALE

Alhambra

Camelback East
Maryvale
Encanto

Central City
Estrella

$1.1 Million
Within high expenditure
neighborhoods there are
Laveen $1.8 Million
South Mountain
numerous, smaller area,
$1.6 Million
million dollar block groups
High Density of Probationers in South Phoenix
 Arizona
Performance Driven Funding Incentive

Legislative Budget Staff

Calculates Probation
Failures by County

Crime Up? Crime Down & Revocation Rate

No Funding Incentive Down? Legislature Provides the
County with 40%
of Averted Costs

Drug and Mental Victim

Health Services
Treatment &
Interventions
 Arizona
Example of Performance Calculation

FY2008 Baseline FY2009

New Conviction Rate: 8.5% New Conviction Rate: 7.8%
Revocation Rate: 21% Revocation Rate: 18%

Averted Cost Savings to the State

–
Baseline
FY2008 Rate x FY2009
FY2009
Revocations x Est. Averted Costs
(~$20,0000)
x 40% =
Population

2000
– 1714 x $20,000 x 40% =
$2.3m
 Michigan

Analysis & Framework

1. 2. 3.

Lower recidivism Reduce spending

Deter criminal
on corrections
activity

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 Michigan
Violent Crime & Police Per Capita

Michigan has
the highest
violent crime
rate in the Great
Lakes region…

…but the fewest

law
enforcement
personnel per
capita in the
region
Source: FBI UCR Crime in the United States, 2007. Great lakes region includes: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio,
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 Michigan
Clearance Rates

Michigan National
Average
Violent Index 28 % 44 %
Crime
Murder 37 % 61 %

Source: 2008 FBI UCR Crime Statistics.

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 Michigan
Re-Arrests of People on Felony
Probation & Parole, 2007

Source: CSG Analysis of 2007 parole e and probation populations matched to Michigan State Police arrest records. 35
Note: MI UCR Estimated Arrests are using 2006 data, due to 2007 data not yet having been released by Michigan State Police.
 Michigan
Unsustainable Spending on Corrections

Spending on corrections increased 57

percent over the past 10 years

As a share of general fund

expenditures, corrections grew from
16.2 to 22.6 percent

One out of every three state workers

is employed by the Michigan
Department of Corrections

36
Source: Data analyzed by Citizen’s Research Council.
Michigan
Impact of Policy Options

Estimated

FY2011-2015
Cumulative Savings:

$262
million

37
 Texas
Prison Population Projection

170,000 Population
168
164,592
17,332
165,000 162,298
159,492 Bed
160,000 157,029 Shortfall
153,849
155,000 3,015
Operational
150,000 Capacity
15
150,834
145,000

140,000
2007 2008 2009
Source: Legislative Budget Board, June 06 and January 07, Adult and Juvenile Correctional 2010 2011 20
Population Projections 38
Expanding
Capacity of
Treatment &
Diversion
Programs

39
 Texas
Impact of Policy Options

Baseline
1 7 0 ,0 0 0 Potential $377 million 1 6 8 ,1 6 6
1 6 7 ,5 0 0 in avoided prison
construction costs 1 6 4 ,5 9 2
1 6 5 ,0 0 0 1 6 2 ,2 9 8 Probation/Treatment
75% Diversions
1 6 2 ,5 0 0 $65.1 million in probable
1 5 9 ,4 9 2
net savings 08-12
1 6 0 ,0 0 0
1 5 7 ,0 2 9
1 5 7 ,5 0 0
1 5 3 ,8 4 9 1 5 5 ,6 1 6
1 5 5 ,0 0 0 Parole Scenario
1 5 3 ,8 4 9 $543 million in probable
1 5 2 ,5 0 0 savings 08-12
1 5 3 ,8 4 9
1 5 0 ,0 0 0 1 5 1 ,8 1 7
1 4 7 ,5 0 0
1 4 5 ,0 0 0
2007 2008 2009
Source: Legislative Budget Board, January 07 Scenarios Impact Analysis 2010 2011 2012 40
 Texas
Estimated Savings & Reinvestment

• $451 million in projected savings over the next 2

years

• $241 million to expand in-prison and community-

based treatment and diversion programs

41
Texas
Impact of Policy Options

2007 Baseline
Projection

Actual Population

$443 million in
savings from 2008-
$241 million to expand 2009
in-prison and community-
based treatment and
diversion programs
Overview

 Justice Reinvestment: A framework to reduce spending on

corrections and increase public safety

 Three case studies illustrating the application of Justice

Reinvestment

 Applying the framework to North Carolina

Next Steps

• Demonstrate bipartisan, bicameral, and interbranch

interest

• Commit to using analyses constructively

• Provide access to data

• Create a mechanism to guide and advise Justice Center

analyses

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Overview

 Justice Reinvestment: A framework to reduce spending on

corrections and increase public safety

 Case studies illustrating the application of Justice

Reinvestment

 Applying the framework to North Carolina

Thank you.

Michael Thompson
Council of State Governments Justice Center
100 Wall Street / 20th Floor
New York, NY 10005
t. 212-482-2320
mthompson@csg.org

www.justicecenter.csg.org

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