Transportation Planning (CE-863)

Spring Semester 2020

Dr. Kamran Ahmed
buet99@Hotmail.com , Office Room#110,Tel: 05190854153,
Cell: 0301-5630831

National Institute of Transportation (NIT)

School of Civil & Environmental Engineering (SCEE)
National University of Science and Technology (NUST)
NUST Campus, Sector H-12, Islamabad
 Models …. Graphical Description

P2

2
T21 All are person trips
T32
P1
T12 T23 Trip Generation
A2
P3 Trip Attraction
T31
1 Trip Distribution
3
T13
A1 A3

3
Trip Distribution
 Connect trip origins and destinations estimated by
the trip generation models
 Predicts where trips go from each Zone
 Zone to Zone Movement
 Different trip distribution models are developed for
each of the trip purposes for which trip generation
has been estimated
Trip Distributions

 Theoretically based methods

◦ Gravity Model
 Growth factor methods
◦ Uniform Growth
◦ Average Factor
◦ Fraters Model
Gravity Model

 Based on Newton’s Law of Gravity

◦ The attractive force between any two bodies is directly
related to the product of their masses and Inversely
proportional to the square of the distance between them

M 1M 2
F =G 2
d12
Gravity Model

 The number of trips between two zones is directly

proportional to the number of trips attractions at the
destination zone and number of trip produced from the
origin zone and Inversely proportional a function of the
travel time

AJ FIJ K IJ
QIJ = PI
 AJ FIJ K IJ
J
 Gravity Model

AJ FIJ K IJ
QIJ = PI
 AJ FIJ K IJ J

QIJ = total trips from I to J

PI = total number of trips produced in zone I, from trip generation

AJ = number of trips attracted to zone J, from trip generation

FIJ = Impedance (usually Inverse of travel time), calculated

KIJ = socioeconomic adjustment factor for pair IJ

Trip Distribution
 Generalized cost: time, cost, indirect cost,
walking time, waiting time, etc.
 Generalized cost function = Impedance
function = Disutility function
 The total generalized cost for traveling
between any two zones i and j is denoted
by Wij.

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 Trip Distribution Inputs and
Outputs
Trip-end Estimates
from trip generation
Pi and Aj

Target-year estimates
Calibrated trip-distribution
of inter-zonal impedances
model
Wij

Estimated target year

Qij
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Visual Example: Cost Concept: we travel more
to zones of lesser cost (disutility)

1 W13= 30
W12= 20 P1=1000

More trips to 2 than to 350

3
2 650 3
A2=800 250 A3=600
150 More trips to 3 than to 2

W42= 65 4 W43= 50
P4=400

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Model Definitions
 Qij is the dependent variable
 Pi, Aj and Wij are the independent variables
 k and c are the model parameters to be
estimated (calibrated using base year data)

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 Production Constrained
Model
Pi =  Qix Ax −1 Pi Ax
x
Qix = [ c ] c
W W 1
Pi Ax
x ix ix Fij =
Qix = k c Wijc
Ax −1 Pi A j
Wix
Qij = [ c ] c

 ( A j Fij ) 

Ax W W Qij = Pi 
Pi = kPi  
x
  x ix 
ix ij
( A F )
Wixc  x 
x
 
1 Ax −1  ( A j / Wij ) 
c
 
k= = [ c ] Qij = Pi   ( A j Fij K ij ) 
c 
  ( Ax / Wix ) 
Ax Qij = Pi   = Pi pij
x W c x Wix

 x    x ix ix 
( A F K )
ix  x 

K ij : Socioecono mic factor

pij : Probabilit y of a trip generated by zone i will be attracted by zone j
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Example1: Basic Gravity Model

Zone 1 Pop1=3000 Zone 2

Pop2=4500
t1s= 12 t2s= 16
Site
As = 1524

t3s= 15

Zone 3 Pop3=7500
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 Solution

Zone 1 Zone 2

G2s= 416
G1s= 369
Site
As = 1524
(1524)(3000) Q1s + Q2 s + Q3 s = 1524
Q1s = k = 381000k
12 k = 0.0009697
Q2 s = k
(1524)(4500)
= 428625k G3s= 739 Q1s = 369
16
Q2 s = 416
(1524)(7500)
Q3 s = k = 7621000k Zone 3 Q3 s = 739
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 Production Constrained
Model
Pi =  Qix Ax −1 Pi Ax
x Qix = [ c ] c
x Wix W ix Fij =
1
Pi Ax
Qix = k c Wijc
Ax −1 Pi Aj
Qij = [ c ]
Wix 
 ( A j Fij ) 

c Qij = Pi  
Ax W W 
Pi = kPi  x  ( A F ) 
ix ij  x
x ix

Wixc  
x
   ( A j Fij K ij ) 
1 Ax −1  ( Aj / Wij ) 
c Qij = Pi 
  x ix ix 
 = Pi pij
k= = [ c ] Qij = Pi 
( A F K )
c 
 x 

  x ix ) 
Ax
x W c x Wix ( A / W
ix  x 

Kij : Socioecono mic factor

p16ij : Probabilit y of a trip generated by zone i will be attracted by zone j
Gravity Model Example 8.2
 Given:
◦ Target-year Productions, {Pi}
◦ Relative Attractiveness of Zones, {Aj}
◦ Skim Table, {Wij}
◦ Calibration Factor, c = 2.0
◦ Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor, K = 1.0
 Find:
◦ Trip Interchanges, {Qij}
Example2: Application of the
Gravity Model
Zone Production Attractiveness

1 1500 0

2 0 3

3 2600 2

4 0 5

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Target-Year Impedances; c=2

i j 1 2 3 4

1 5 10 15 20

2 10 5 10 15

3 15 10 5 10

4 20 15 10 5

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 Solution: i=1, P1=1500
j Aj Fij Kij AjFijKij pij Qij

1 0 0.0400 1.0 0 0 0

2 3 0.0100 1.0 0.0300 0.584 875

3 2 0.0044 1.0 0.0089 0.173 260

4 5 0.0025 1.0 0.0125 0.243 365

0.0514 1.0 1500 = P1

( A j Fij K ij )
0 .03 20

= 2 = 0.040 Pij = = = 0.583

1 1
Fij =
Wijc 5  ( Ax Fix Kix ) 0.0514
 Solution: i=3, P3=2600
j Aj Fij Kij AjFijKij pij Qij

1 0 0.0044 1.0 0 0 0

2 3 0.0100 1.0 0.03 0.188 488

3 2 0.0400 1.0 0.08 0.500 1300

4 5 0.0100 1.0 0.05 0.312 812

0.16 1.0 2600 = P3

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j Aj Fij Kij AjFijKij pij Qij
0 0.0400 1.0 0 0 0
1
3 0.0100 1.0 0.0300 0.584 875
2
2 0.0044 1.0 0.0089 0.173 260
3
5 0.0025 1.0 0.0125 0.243 365
4
0.0514 1.0 1500 =
P1

j Aj Fij Kij AjFijKij pij Qij

0 0.0044 1.0 0 0 0
1
3 0.0100 1.0 0.03 0.188 488
2
2 0.0400 1.0 0.08 0.500 1300
3
5 0.0100 1.0 0.05 0.312 812
4
0.16 1.0 2600 =
P3

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 i j 1 2 3 4 Sum

1 0 875 260 365 1500

2 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 488 1300 812 2600

4 0 0 0 0 0

Sum 0 1363 1560 1177 4100

A1*=0+0=0
A2*=875+488=1363
A3*=260+1300=1560
A4*=365+812=1177

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Example3: Inter-zonal Impedances (min)

5
5 Proposed
1 Center

10
20
2
20
10

4
CBD
3

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Example3: Daily Shopping Trip Production
(trips/person)

X3 X1 X2 0 1 2

I 2 or less 0.2 0.3 0.4

3 0.1 0.2 0.3

4 or more 0.1 0.2 0.3

II 2 or less 0.3 0.4 0.5

3 0.2 0.2 0.4

4 or more 0.2 0.2 0.5

X1: household size; persons/household

X2: auto ownership, cars/household
X3: household income level (I or II)
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Example3: Relative Shopping Attractiveness

 A= 5Xa+3Xb

 Xa: area of shopping floor space provided,

in acres
 Xb: available parking area, in acres

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Example3: Land-Use and Socioeconomic
Predictions: Residential Zones
Number of households
Zone X1 X2 X3 Base year Target year
1 2 0 I 300 500
2 1 I 300 400
3 1 I 200 300
2 2 II 0 50
2 2 1 I 400 500
2 1 II 300 200
3 2 I 200 300
3 0 I 100 400
3 1 1 II 200 200
2 2 II 300 400
3 2 II 400 300
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4 2 II 200 400
Example3: Land-Use and Socioeconomic
Predictions: Commercial Zones

Zone Base year Target year

Xa Xb Xa Xb

4 (CBD) 3 2 3 2.5

5 (Proposed 0 0 2 3
Shopping
Center)
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Example3: Socioeconomic Adjustment Factors
i j 4(CBD) 5(Center)

1 1.0 0.9

2 0.9 1.2

3 1.0 1.0

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Solution: Total Trip Production Calculation- Target
Year
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3

500*2*0.2=200 500*2*0.3=300 200*1*0.4=80

400*2*0.3=240 200*2*0.4=160 400*2*0.5=400

300*3*0.2=180 300*3*0.3=270 300*3*0.4=360

50*2*0.5=50 400*3*0.1=120 400*4*0.5=800

P1= 670 P2=850 P3=1640

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Solution: Target Year Attractiveness
 A4 = 5*3+3*2.5 = 22.5
 A5=5*2+3*3=19

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 Solution: Target Year
Interchange Volumes
Use c=1 and i j 4(CBD) 5(Center) Pi

the Kij factors

to calculate the 1 166 504 670
target year
interchange 2 400 450 850
volumes as the
previous 3 1354 286 1640
example.
Aj* 1920 1240

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