Interpreting

Failure Rates
 Fact 1
λ (failure rate) = constant k (number of failures) = more than 10
(useful life)

= MTBF

T = cummulative time
 Fact 2
λ (failure rate) = constant k (number of failures) = small (even 0)
(useful life)

use statistical inference (chi-square dist)

 Fact 3
λ (failure rate) = variable decreasing (early failure)
increasing (wearout failure)

is not suitable to describe the failure dist.

?

Weibull Dist.

probability plotting or software (MINITAB)

 Fact 2 (continued)
During the test, all items must fail if the true
MTBF is to be determined.

Point estimate of MTBF =

True MTBF =

True MTBF is more accurate data than

Point estimate of MTBF
In practice, we are forced to truncate tests
after a given number of hours or failures

failure-truncated test time-truncated test

 Inference
The process of making a statement about a
population of items based on the evidence
of a sample

Chi-Square Test
 Inference (2)
Using the Chi-Square Test, it is possible to
state an MTBF together with a confidence
level of a population (a system/device/equipment)
 Inference (3)

follows a distribution with 2k

degrees of freedom, where the test is
truncated at the kth failure (random failure
assumed)
 Inference (4)
as we know that

so that

when = thus
 Inference (5)
In order to determine it is necessary to
specify two parameters, with the use of a
distribution table

(1) the number of degrees of freedom ( )

twice the number of failure

(2) the confidence level ( )

Inference (6)
 Inference (7)
Example 1 – failure truncated test
In a replacement test (each failed device is replaced
immediately) 100 devices are tested for 1000 hours during
which 3 failures occur. The third failure happens at 1000
hours at which point the test is truncated. We shall now
calculate the MTBF of the batch at 90% and 60%
confidence levels.
 Inference (8)
1. Since this is a replacement test, T is obtained from the
number under test multiplied by the linear test time.
Therefore T = 100000 hours and k = 3
2. Let degrees of freedom. For 90%
confidence and for 60% confidence

3. Read off values of 10.6 and 6.21 (see Table)

4. .
 Inference (9)
For a time truncated test, one must be
added to the number of failures,

a test with zero failures can now be
interpreted
Example 2 – a time truncated test
100 devices are observed for 50 hours with no failures. At
60% confidence, calculate :
1.MTBF,
2.Failure rate, and
3.Relliability of the device