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Ketelaar P E Vant Riet J Thorbjornsen H Buijzen M
Ketelaar P E Vant Riet J Thorbjornsen H Buijzen M
net/publication/308984525
Ketelaar, P. E., van't Riet, J., Thorbjornsen, H., & Buijzen, M. (2016). Positive
uncertainty: the benefit of the doubt in advertising, International Journal of
Advertising., 1-14.
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Paul Ketelaar sample. Results of the current research revealed that product preannouncements
Radboud University significantly increased consumers’ product interest and WOM behavior. And, more so
Nijmegen, Netherlands
than messaging about currently available products, preannouncements increased the
p.ketelaar@ru.nl
favorability and elaborateness of WOM.
Jonathan van ’t Riet
Radboud University
Nijmegen, Netherlands
INTRODUCTION of WOM in boosting a new product’s commercial
j.vantriet@maw.ru.nl
Advertising that stimulates consumer curiosity success. It is important, therefore, to identify fac-
and positive word of mouth (WOM) is effective tors that effectively facilitate positive WOM for
Micael Dahlén
(Rubinson, 2009). Research long has demonstrated new products.
Stockholm School of
the importance of consumer WOM in attitude Advertisers long have used teaser advertise-
Economics
formation (Bone, 1995), decision making (Bansal ments and product pre-announcements to create
micael.dahlen@hhs.se
and Voyer, 2000), and the reduction of uncertainty online and offline “buzz” for forthcoming movies
(Murray, 1991). In one investigation, WOM com- and books, new car models, future high-tech prod-
munications influenced nearly 70 percent of all ucts, and so on. To date, however, little research has
buying decisions (Balter, 2008). investigated the effects of such advertising on con-
Since the advent of Facebook and other social sumers’ WOM behavior.
media—and the addition of a wide range of online In the current research, the authors argued and
brand communities and new communication for- demonstrated that future-framed advertising is a
mats—little doubt has existed as to the potential potent tool for facilitating positive product-related
• Forthcoming products generate more word-of-mouth (WOM) than do currently available products.
• WOM about forthcoming products also is more favorable and elaborate when compared to WOM
about (identical) current products
• Pre-announcing new products, therefore, is more effective in generating product interest and
positive WOM than merely advertising new products at the time of product launch.
• Future research should investigate the psychological mechanisms driving WOM for forthcoming
products and the boundary conditions of the effects.
WOM for new products. The study pre- To the authors’ knowledge, no studies to date
supposes that the future generally is more
interesting than the present: It is more have investigated the potential for future-
uncertain, often more optimistic, and cer-
tainly more interesting to discuss. oriented advertising to facilitate WOM
Anecdotal evidence has suggested that
this also is true for future products. An
often-cited example is the 2012 launch otherwise equivalent current products. WOM, or e-WOM (Hennig-Thurau et al.,
of iPhone 5, for which the WOM/buzz The cultural phenomenon is captured in 2004). In the current research, the authors
was believed to have contributed signifi- the term “Nextopia,” described as “a gen- conceptualize WOM as being both offline
cantly to its success: The new iPhone was eral belief among consumers that the next and online.
discussed on the Internet long before its product will always be the better one” It can be hugely profitable for firms—
release date (Appleinsider.com 2012). (Dahlén et al., 2011, p. 33). seemingly acting without obvious com-
Google trends showed a significant The authors of the current study argued mercial intent—to induce consumers to
increase in search volume in 2011, when that the positive uncertainty associated pass on commercial messages, mostly
advance reports suggested that the iPhone with future products would not only because receivers trust the intrinsic moti-
5 would appear on the market in Septem- make consumers more interested in an vations of senders. Indeed, WOM has been
ber 2011. When it later became known that advertised product but render them more shown to affect not only purchasing behav-
the launch had been postponed to 2012, the inclined to engage in product-related ior (Arndt, 1967; Price and Feick, 1984;
search volume dropped enormously, only WOM. To that end, they investigated Udell, 1996) but consumer expectations
to rise again when its actual release date in whether (and how) future-oriented adver- (Zeithaml and Bitner, 1996), feelings, and
September 2012 approached. tising could spur positive WOM about attitudes both before (Herr, Kardes, and
The example of the iPhone 5 sug- the advertised product compared with Kim, 1991) and after (Bone, 1995) product
gests that, in the domain of consumer present-oriented advertisements. purchase. In one online setting, consumers
behavior, people sometimes demonstrate To the authors’ knowledge, no studies did not perceive an e-mail with product
inflated interest and preference for future to date have investigated the potential for information as junk mail when it came
products over currently available ones future-oriented advertising to facilitate from someone they knew (Phelps et al.,
(Dahlén, Thorbjørnsen, and Sjödin, 2011). WOM. In their research, the authors tested 2004); rather they inferred that the prod-
One reason for this may be the (positive) the relationship between future-oriented uct in question must be worthwhile if the
uncertainty (Lee and Qiu, 2009) associated advertising and WOM in two separate sender wanted to inform them about it.
with new products and services. Uncer- studies. Also, they hypothesized that con- Although marketers sometimes attempt
tainty offers consumers the opportunity sumers more likely would elaborate on, to stimulate positive WOM through
to imagine and speculate on a product’s like, and ultimately forward information oral communication and/or electronic
potentially positive characteristics and out- about forthcoming products than informa- media—an activity known as WOM mar-
comes. (See “The Power of Positive Uncer- tion about currently available products. keting or viral marketing (Hinz et al., 2011;
tainty” below). Vilpponen, Winter, and Sundqvist, 2006;
In the current research, the authors pos- WOM AND ITS MARKETING POTENTIAL Woerdl et al., 2008)—what people say
ited that the positively framed uncertainty WOM usually was long characterized as about products largely is beyond the con-
associated with future products (versus oral, person-to-person communication trol of marketers (Woerdl et al., 2008). Thus,
currently available products) would make between a receiver and a communica- advertising that proves to increase positive
consumers perceive these products as tor whom the receiver perceives as non- WOM would seem to have important mar-
more interesting and cause them to spend commercial toward a brand, product, or keting ramifications because it would pro-
more effort on imagining and elaborating service (Arndt, 1967). As the marketing vide a vital tool that marketers could use to
on product features. Earlier research had ecosystem entered the digital age, most boost product interest.
suggested that advertisements for forth- researchers have added electronic media to In the current research, the authors
coming products resulted in more posi- this definition (Buttle, 1998; Li and Zhan, hypothesized that future-oriented adver-
tive evaluations than advertisements for 2011). Others preferred to call it electronic tising (i.e., advertising about products that
will become available in the future) would • the future is more uncertain than the interesting, and having more “social cur-
trigger more WOM than present-oriented present, and rency” (possibilities for self-enhancement)
advertising (i.e., advertising about cur- • the properties of forthcoming products than currently available products, such
rently available products). If so, the authors are more (positive) uncertain than those products more likely will generate positive
believe, future-oriented advertising would of currently available ones. WOM than (identical) currently available
provide marketers with an important tool products.
with which to influence consumers’ WOM Scholarly work on the optimistic bias
behavior. has suggested that this uncertainty has HYPOTHESES
How—and why—however, would a positive valence (McKenna, 1993; Oet- Considerations about how future-oriented
future-oriented advertising stimulate posi- tingen and Mayer, 2002; Weinstein, 1980). advertising may be more (positive) uncer-
tive WOM? People are overly optimistic about their tain, novel, and interesting than advertis-
own (uncertain) future and overestimate ing for currently available products led
The Power of “Positive Uncertainty” the value of future products (Dahlén et al., the authors of the current study to present
The idea that consumers prefer future 2011; Loewenstein, O’Donoghue, and hypotheses that further were tested in two
products to currently available ones has Rabin, 2003; Zhao, Meyer, and Han, 2003). separate studies:
been studied previously. Consider experi- Therefore, the current authors believe,
ments that were conducted in which the (positive) uncertainty and novelty H1a: Advertising with a future focus
participants were shown one of two adver- stemming from future products will stimu- compared to content with a cur-
tisements (Dahlén et al., 2011). One adver- late consumers’ product interests, imagina- rent time frame leads to more
tisement promoted a product described as tion, elaboration and, in turn, their WOM product interest.
currently available; the other advertised behavior.
the same product, but participants were Indeed, the link between uncertainty H1b: Advertising with a future focus
led to believe that the product was yet to and WOM has drawn attention in WOM compared to content with a cur-
be released. The results showed that the research: The perceived uncertainty associ- rent perspective leads to more
future-oriented advertisements consist- ated with a product was suggested to have product-related thoughts.
ently induced greater elaboration and stimulated WOM (Arndt, 1967). And, in
resulted in more positive evaluations of consumption settings in which uncer- H2: Advertising with a future focus
both advertisement and brand. tainty was high, such as for experience increases recipients’ propensity
One key mechanism likely explain- goods (e.g., movies), WOM was common to engage in WOM when com-
ing these effects is “positive uncertainty.” and also played a central role in product pared to content with a current
Although most economics and marketing success (Bruce, Foutz, and Kolsarici, 2012; time frame.
research explicitly or implicitly has concep- Neelamegham and Jain, 1999).
tualized uncertainty as something negative In addition to being more uncertain, That is, the authors hypothesized, the mere
for consumers, other research has indicated future products likely will be more inter- information about a product that is forth-
that, when positively framed, uncertainty esting than currently available products. coming likely would lead to
can yield more pleasure than certainty (Lee Conventional wisdom and practice have
and Qiu, 2009; Wilson et al., 2005). suggested that products need to be inter- • more interest in the product (e.g., online
For example, when people do not know esting to spur discussion (Berger and “clicks”);
exactly what they might win (or even have Schwartz, 2011). Consumers generally talk • more product elaboration; and
won) in a lottery, they tend to enjoy the about things that they perceive as interest- • increased propensity to share the prod-
experience more than when they do know ing and that also make them appear inter- uct information via online WOM (e.g.,
(Lee and Qiu, 2009). Moreover, in the case esting to others. Additionally, consumers’ online forwarding).
of films, people have higher expectations self-presentation and self-enhancement
when movie trailers leave them uncertain have been found to be key motivations for In addition, the authors expected that the
about the specific content and resolution of generating WOM (De Angelis et al., 2012). content of the WOM consumers forward to
the movie (Wilson et al., 2005). Thus, there Thus, because consumers generally per- others would be more elaborate and favora-
are two implications: ceive forthcoming products as more novel, ble when stemming from future-oriented
advertisements—an assumption that led to randomly to the two treatments. Respond- Results
the following hypothesis: ents could choose: In support of H1a—advertising with a
future-versus-present time frame results
H3a: Advertising with a future focus • Click on the headline. The headlines in more positive product interest—the
compared to content with a cur- were linked to an online page with a future-framed version of the headline that
rent perspective increases the brief editorial item about the alarm promoted the “coming soon” model gener-
elaborateness of WOM. clock and its design. The editorial cor- ated a significantly (χ2 = 126.95, p < 0.01)
respondingly featured either the black higher click-through rate (3.14 percent, n
H3b: Advertising with a future focus (“just out”) or the white (“coming soon”) = 1256) to the editorial than the “current
compared to content with a model. The texts and layouts were iden- version,” which promoted the “just out”
current time frame increases tical except for the information that the model (1.86 percent, n = 756).
the favorability of forwarded black model “is just out” and that the This finding suggested that there
WOM. white model “will be released in a few was a main effect of time framing of the
weeks.” advertisements on product interest (See
METHODOLOGY Table 1).
Study 1 • Forward the information in the editor- In examination of H2—that, in adver-
Study 1 used a real setting to test H1a, H2, ial to other people. To make forwarding tising with a future-versus-present time
and H3a/b. The study tested time frame possible, the online page promoted a rec- frame, recipients’ propensity to engage
(future versus present) as a between- ommendation function in which readers in WOM would increase—readers of the
subjects factor in a field experiment of an could forward the link to the editorial editorial significantly reported that they
actual product launch. piece by typing in any number of e-mail would more likely forward the link in the
A Swedish marketer cooperated with addresses and writing a message to the future-framed condition (5.89 percent, n =
the research team to study the launch of receivers in a text box. The authors used 74) than in the present-framed condition
two models of a designer alarm clock— this function to compare WOM between (3.72 percent, n = 28; χ2 = 4.25, p < 0.05).
one black, the other white—a few weeks the two time frames for Thus, H2 was supported.
apart. The clocks were identical except for H2 (number of sent recommendations,
As the authors had hypothesized, adver-
the color. At the time of the release of the gauged as the percentage of readers tising with a future-versus-present time
first (black) model, the Swedish lifestyle who forwarded the link), frame increased the amount/elaborate-
magazine Plaza reported on the introduc- H3a (average word count in the mes-
ness of WOM. In comparing the actual
tion in its “Things and Gadgets” section sages), and recommendations, the researchers found
that could be accessed only through a link H3b (average valence of the mes-
that the future-framed condition gener-
in a headline-alert e-mail. sages, coded on a scale from –3 to ated a higher average word count than
+3 by two judges [r = 0.74] blind to the present-framed condition (4.63 ver-
Stimuli and Procedure the study purpose and experimental sus 3.15; p < 0.01, t = 3.11). Thus, H3a was
During the release of the new model, sub- conditions). supported.
scribers were exposed to the magazine’s
online alert about a new designer alarm TABLE 1
clock but with two different executions: It
Results of Study 1: Mean Comparisons
presented two versions of the headline:
Present-
Future-Framed Framed Hypothesis
• “Just Out: The Really Cool Wake-Up
Caller” and Click-Through (Product Interest) 3.14 percent** 1.86 percent H1a
• “Coming Soon: The Really Cool Wake-Up Numer of Recommendations 5.89 percent* 3.72 percent H2
Caller.”
Average Recommendation Word Count 4.63** 3.15 H3a
Each headline-alert e-mail version was sent Average Recommendation Valence (–3/+3) 0.97** 0.48 H3b
to 40,000 subscribers, who were assigned **Difference significant at p < 0.01. *Difference significant at p < 0.05.
Finally, the average valence shows that • in the present-framed condition, the after finishing the questionnaire and to
the recommendations were more positive headline read, “Out Now.” indicate for each listed thought whether
for the future-framed condition than for it was positive (+), negative (–), or neutral
the present-framed condition (0.97 versus The mineral-water advertisement pro- (0). They then calculated the net number
0.48; p < 0.01, t = 2.37). Thus, H3b—future moted a new flavor for the domestic of positive thoughts by subtracting them
frames increase WOM more favorability number-two brand; the movie advertise- from the negative thoughts.
than present frames—was supported. ment showcased a new foreign movie that They measured WOM propensity with
recently had been released in its home two items (“would talk about” and “will
Discussion market. With this selection of materials, the post information about”; r = 0.85), and
The findings supported the authors’ researchers avoided confounding effects assessed WOM favorability with two items
hypothesized main effects. from previous exposures. (“would forward positive information
The future time frame exerted signifi- Some 340 participants were recruited about” and “would forward negative
cantly positive effects on WOM with respect through an online panel for the experiment information about”). The researchers then
to the number of recommendations, elabo- (48 percent male, Mage = 24.4). The online subtracted the positive information item
ration in terms of the average number of panel was representative in terms of demo- from the negative information item to
words, and favorability in terms of the graphics of the general population in the obtain a measure of net favorability.
average valence of the recommendations. relevant market.
Although the field experiment provided a The researchers randomly assigned Results
novel and ecologically valid test of an actual the participants to two conditions The future-framed condition generated
product launch, however, this test environ- (future- versus present-framed advertise- a significantly greater number of spon-
ment had lower internal validity when com- ments). No difference existed between the taneous thoughts (3.88 versus 3.42; p <
pared with a more controlled lab setting. two conditions in terms of gender and age. 0.05) and more favorable spontaneous
Although the future-framed versus In total, there were four cells (2 time frames thoughts (1.21 versus 0.69; p < 0.05) than
present-framed product releases were × 2 products), for an average cell size of 85 the present-framed condition. Thus, H1b
highly similar, they were not 100 percent participants. The participants received no was supported.
identical in that the colors of the products incentive for their participation. In line with the hypotheses, WOM pro-
in the two experimental treatments var- pensity (H2) (3.30 versus 2.66; p < 0.01)
ied (black versus white). Thus, to increase Measures and favorability (H3b) (2.27 versus 1.73; p
internal validity and also test the hypoth- The researchers measured product-related < 0.01) also were greater in the future than
eses for other product categories, the thoughts with a thought protocol similar the present condition (See Table 2). Thus,
researchers conducted a second experi- to an earlier scenario in which participants H2 was supported
ment in a more controlled lab setting. listed their spontaneous thoughts imme-
diately after seeing the advertisement DISCUSSION OF THE TWO STUDIES
STUDY 2 (Dahlén et al., 2011). Next, they counted The Benefits of Future-Framed
Study 2 was designed to test H1b, H2, and the total number of thoughts. To obtain a Advertising
H3b, and it included two additional prod- measure of favorability, they asked the par- The buzz surrounding forthcoming prod-
uct categories: mineral water and movies. ticipants to go back to the thought protocol ucts—such as next-generation iPhones or
These categories frequently feature adver-
tising in both future and present time
TABLE 2
frames.
The researchers used print advertise-
Results of Study 2: Mean Comparisons
ments as stimuli. The advertisements Future-Framed Present-Framed Hypotheses
were identical in both executions, with the Product-Related Thoughts (net positive) 3.88* (1.21*) 3.42 (0.69) H1b
exception of the manipulation:
WOM Propensity 3.30** 2.66 H2
consumers’ biased preferences for tempo- Institute of Radboud University Nijmegen. His work Berger, J., and E. M. Schwartz.“What Drives
ral distant objects and events, including focuses on health communication, with a special Immediate and Ongoing Word of Mouth?” Jour
the optimistic bias (McKenna, 1993; Tanner interest in online and digital communication. His nal of Marketing Research 48, 5 (2011): 869–880.
and Carlson, 2008; Weinstein, 1980), inac- work has been published in the Journal of Medical
curate affective forecasting (Ebert, Gilbert, Internet Research, Psychology and Health, and Health Bickart, B., and R. M. Schindler.“Internet
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construal level (Trope and Liberman, 2000). Information.” Journal of Interactive Marketing, 15,
The current research shows that future- Micael Dahlén is a professor in marketing at the 3 (2001): 31–40.
framed advertising can be an effective Center for Consumer Marketing at Stockholm School
vehicle in increasing consumers’ interest of Economics. His research interests are consumer Bone, P. F.“Word-of-Mouth Effects on Short-
in the advertised product and enhancing behavior and creativity and advertising. Dahlén has Term and Long-Term Product Judgments.” Jour
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Future studies should focus on media- happiness, serial killers, and social media, and
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