Water scarcity may disrupt

Pak-Afghan relations
With the country facing severe water crisis, our focus seems to be on
India building dams on the eastern rivers under the Indus Waters
Treaty and holding the power to divert Pakistan’s water. While being
obsessed with the water dispute with India, few in the country are
aware of another potential dispute festering on the western borders, i.e.
the water flow between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
At least seven major rivers bend their course between the mountainous
range which divides Pakistan and Afghanistan, watering various parts of
both the countries and sustaining life on either side of the Durand line. Yet
till now, a sustainable policy has not been drafted and no joint treaty signed
to manage trans-boundary waters.
The Kabul River is the most developed and utilised common water resource
for Pakistan and Afghanistan. According to a World Bank Study, the highly
populated river basin is the only source of fresh water for about seven
million people. The study reveals that more than 96 percent of the total
population of the basin lives in small villages in cultivable areas with access
to water. The Kabul River basin and the watercourse is an integral source of
life and livelihood for the cross-border Pakhtun population.
It is crucial for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to establish a cross-border
network to find a solution to shared waters
A resident of Kabul city, Muhammad Jan, 50, has witnessed the construction
of several dams on the Kabul River to store water for drinking, sanitation
and irrigation. According to him, some hydroelectric projects on these dams
are not functional due to the volatile situation in the region. Hundreds and
thousands of acres of fertile land were cultivated by the river, he tells Eos. In
Nangarhar province of Afghanistan, most farmers cultivated olive crops
which produced the best quality olive oil.
According to media reports, the Afghan government, with the support of
India, will start work on Shahtoot Dam project on the Kabul river in
Afghanistan in the near future. The project has not taken into consultation
the lower riparian state of Pakistan and thus has evoked concern in the
downstream country which might impact the worsening relationship
between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
“The Afghanistan government plans to build two dams on Kabul River in
Afghanistan. One in Shahtoot and the other in Shahrooz area of Kabul. These
dams will be constructed for the purpose of drinking water. Both dams will
provide drinking water to almost 0.8 million people,” Kabul based journalist,
Raqib Ullah Shahab tells Eos.
Shahab says that according to the International Water Law, Afghanistan has
the right to build dams for water storage and hydroelectricity production on
Kabul River.
But he stresses the need for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to discuss water
management of cross-border rivers in order to develop consensus for a joint
treaty. Only one [reported] meeting between officials of the two countries
was held in 2014 in Dubai, organised by the World Bank, he points out.
“Orphan River: Water Management of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan
and Pakistan” is a (2105) report by Media in Cooperation and Transition
(MiCT) journalists and editors in collaboration with experts from the
Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI). It reveals that the river
provides water to irrigate lands in Afghanistan and supplies 50 percent of
the country’s hydro power.
On the Pakistan side, Kabul River provides water to 243 MW hydropower
dam in Warsak built in 1960 and generation voltage is 11KV. In summer
season the dam adds about 210 MW electricity per hour to the national grid
but in winter due to shortage of water the electricity production is reduced
to about 40 MW per hour. The river has sufficient quantity of water for
irrigation.
“The Warsak Dam has silted up and has no capacity for water storage,” says
Zahoor Muhammad, Executive Engineer at Hydrology section of KP
Irrigation department. The dam can be used only for the production of
electricity and has lost the capability to reserve water even for drinking and
irrigation.”
The lack of check dams on Kabul River filled Warsak Dam with mud and silt
and, in summer flood, water could not be stored. After the 2010 floods in the
province, the irrigation department conducted a survey about the capacity of
Warsak dam, and later the department came to know that the dam lacks
water storage capacity.
He went on to say that in case of water shortage, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)
will suffer more as compared to other provinces of the country, as apart
from Tarbela Dam, KP does not have any other water reservoir.
According to the Irrigation Department, two canal systems, including Warsak
Canal System (WCS) and Kabul River Canal System (KRCS) originating from
Kabul River irrigate fertile land of Peshawar district.
Data obtained from the KP Irrigation department shows that WCS irrigates
107,414 acres of the total land of the district, while KRCS irrigates 84,270
acres. The data also reveals that in Rabi season of 2015-16 about 49,154
acres were cultivated via WCS while in the same season of 2017-18 the
cultivable land was reduced to 46,050 acres.
Documents obtained from the KP irrigation department show that the Kabul
River is not a single transboundary waterway between the two countries. In
the tribal districts of KP and Balochistan, other rivers also enter Pakistan from
Afghanistan: Kurram River, Gomal River, Pishin Lora/Bore Nullah, Kandai
River, Kunder River and Abdul Wahab Stream.
On the other hand, the data shows the area irrigated in Peshawar district by
KRCS in Rabi season of 2015-16 was 26,200 acres while in 2017-18 the
cultivated land was reduced to 25,967 acres. Department officials say that
although there are several other factors behind the reduction in cultivation,
water shortage is a major reason.
The Kabul River also plays a vital role in the field of agriculture of KP’s other
central districts, including Charsadda and Nowshehra. Most of the
population of these districts depends on agriculture and use water from
Kabul River for irrigation and cultivation.

Shared waters between Pakistan and Afghanistan

According to the Orphan River study, the Chitral River — which is called
Kunar River in Afghanistan — originates from glaciers in north-western
Pakistan, 16,000 feet above sea level. The river flows for nearly 500
kilometres through the mountainous Chitral Valley, where it is joined by 35
or so tributaries, before crossing the border at Arandu area of the valley and
flowing into the Kunar River in Afghanistan.
The study adds that on the other side of the Pak-Afghan border, the main
tributaries of the Kabul River are Logar, Panjshir, Kunar and Alingar while, in
Pakistan, Bara and Swat rivers join it at various points in KP.
Jan, from Kabul, recalls that before the Taliban regime in 1998, the Afghan
government started rehabilitation work with foreign support on two
non-functional dams in Jalalabad, but later the construction work was
stopped due to security reasons.
Despite the strategic importance of Kabul River basin in both sides of the
border, there is shortage of hydrological data. The last study on pollution in
the Kabul River was conducted by the Pakistan Council of Scientific and
Industrial Research (PCSIR) and was published in 1999. In Pakistan, on
behalf of Indus River System Authority (Irsa), the KP Irrigation department
collects hydrological data of Kabul River and provides it to Irsa headquarters
on a monthly basis.
Although the Afghan government has installed more than 100 weather
stations, the data-collection process has not taken place in the country for
the last three decades due to cross-border insurgency.
Documents obtained from the KP Irrigation department show that the Kabul
River is not a single transboundary waterway between the two countries. In
the tribal districts of KP and Balochistan, other rivers also enter Pakistan
from Afghanistan: Kurram River, Gomal River, Pishin Lora/Bore Nullah,
Kandai River, Kunder River and Abdul Wahab Stream.
Haqmal Masoodzai, an Afghan journalist based in Paktia province, says that
in three districts of Paktia province most of the population is engaged in
farming. The Shamil River, called Kaitu River in Pakistan, is the sole source of
water for irrigation and cultivation. After passing through Khost, the river
enters Pakistan in North Waziristan where it converges with the Kurram
River at Spinwam.
“On the Afghan side, the Kurram-Shamil Sub-Basin Council lacks the
equipment to collect hydrology data,” the journalist explains. “There is no
dam constructed by the Afghan government on the river. Thus, in summer
season, floods in the river render a large population homeless in both
countries.”
The Kurram river flows south-east in Ahmadkhel, Dand Aw Patan and
Tasamkani districts of Paktia province and then crosses the border into
Pakistan’s Kurram tribal district.
“The province produces 310 cubic metres of water per second, of which only
71 cubic metres per second is used for provincial needs, while other flows to
the rest of Pakistan at various points,” he says.
He says that the Afghan government was not able to develop a mechanism
for the management and proper utilisation of water in Paktia but the central
government had initiated plans to conduct a survey and build a dam for
electricity production.
He mentions that the Afghan government signed an MOU with a Russian
construction company to construct a dam on Machalgho River (a tributary of
Shamil River) with the capacity to irrigate about 1,824 acres lands and
produce hydroelectricity in Paktia but the work has not yet begun due to
security reasons. About 32 million US dollars has been allocated by the Asian
Development Bank for the project.
Common rivers between Pakistan and Afghanistan undoubtedly benefit both
the countries but neither country pays attention to preparing a
comprehensive policy about shared water. It is crucial for both the countries
to establish a crossborder network, having officials of water ministries and
members of other stakeholders. Hydrology data sharing is also vital for flood
protection measurements on both sides of the border.
Experts say that the Indus Waters Treaty with India in 1960 is a good
example for establishing policy about shared water with Afghanistan. Would
we have to wait for the World Bank to bring officials of both the countries to
the table for negotiations yet again?
Published in Dawn, EOS, November 25th, 2018
 A Pak-Afghan water treaty?
The Indus River Basin is shared by four countries: Pakistan, India,
Afghanistan and China. The water sector in this region faces certain
challenges including the depletion of natural resources and inefficient use of
water. The region’s current population is 237 million and is estimated to
increase to 319 million by 2025, and to 383 million by 2050.

Kabul River, a tributary of the Indus water system, runs through Afghanistan
and Pakistan. It is 700 kilometres long and emerges in the Sanglakh Range of
the Hindu Kush mountains in Afghanistan, ultimately emptying into the
Indus River near Attock in Pakistan. It is shared by upper-riparian
Afghanistan and lower-riparian Pakistan. The river contributes 25 MAF to
the economy of Pakistan. There is a possibility of Afghanistan withholding
the water during sowing seasons and releasing it during wet seasons.
Afghanistan needs a modern water infrastructure for its agricultural and
urbanisation needs. Its 2008 development agenda indicated building of dams
as an integral part of the developmental programme.

Pakistan sees Afghanistan’s close ties with India as a security threat. The
former is an agrarian economy; the agricultural sector makes for 22 percent
of its GDP and 42 percent of its labour force is engaged in this sector. The
construction of dams by Afghanistan on Kabul River will affect the
lower-riparian region’s economy. This controversy, if not resolved, has the
potential to make Pakistan’s western borders unsafe too. India is supporting
the construction of 12 dams on the river. By providing finance for these
dams, India can gain influence on Afghanistan’s water policies.
To many observers, Afghanistan is emerging as a democratic state in South
Asian politics. It lacks a sound water infrastructure and needs to develop one
as it is a genuine need.

There is no Pak-Afghan treaty on the sharing and use of water from River
Kabul, like the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan on the use of
water from the Indus water system. In the absence of a treaty, matters
between co-riparian states are regulated through international laws.
Studying the customary international laws, conventions, declarations and
rules, and the classic work of international experts, revealed one principle
that: co-riparian states, especially upper ones, must let the water flow into
the downstream areas unaffected, both qualitatively and quantitatively.
Along with the Madrid Declaration, 1911 – on using international
watercourses for purposes other than navigation – the general principles of
international law and teachings of highly qualified experts also stress upon
this norm. An analysis of the existing rules, viz the Helsinki Rules on the Uses
of Waters of International Rivers, 1966; Berlin Rules on Water Resources,
2004; and the UN’s Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of
International Watercourses, 1997, all highlight certain principles.
These principles include: i) equitable distribution of shared watercourses; ii)
commitment not to cause ‘substantial injury’ to co-riparian states, iii) all
basin states shall, while managing the waters of an international drainage
basin in their respective territories, have due regard to ‘the obligation not to
cause significant harm to other basin states’; iv) each basin state is entitled,
within its territory, to a reasonable and equitable share in the beneficial use
of the waters of an international drainage basin…without causing substantial
injury to a co-riparian state.

The largest area of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province lies around the Kabul
and Swat rivers. Most of Peshawar, Charsadda and Nowshera are irrigated
by River Kabul, through distributory channels. Damming by Afghanistan may
create huge live water storages upstream, enabling it to temper with the flow
of water to lower-riparian Pakistan. This will cause a dearth of water,
thereby adversely affecting Pakistan’s agrarian economy. Despite the World
Bank and USAID supporting the idea of Pakistan and Afghanistan signing a
treaty in 2006, and the US Congress issuing a report, on how water scarcity
could fuel dangerous tensions, in 2011, the matter continues to remain
unresolved.

Decidedly, there is a deficit of trust between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which

is very likely to turn into a controversy leading to a trans-boundary water
dispute. This could trigger armed clashes between them too. There is already
talk about countries going to war over water issues in the future.
International treaties are the primary source of international law. In case of a
dispute, if there is no treaty between the states, it becomes difficult for the
victim state to seek redress from any international forum, including the
International Court of Justice and International Court of Arbitration. Treaties
are taken for granted as a safe and sound modus operandi at the
international level to resolve trans-boundary disputes between countries.
The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 is the best model. It simultaneously covers
three subjects, viz legal: norms on sharing and the use of water from a single
basis by co-riparians; technical: norms of hydrology, irrigation and
engineering science, and politico-economic: hydro politics, hydro-electricity
generation and agriculture through irrigation.

Thus, the Indus Waters Treaty may be used as a basic model to figure out
new frameworks for sharing and using River Kabul . In this respect, further
guidance can be sought from international laws. The Indo-Pak factor in
relation to Afghanistan needs to be set apart. The reality is that a
matterbetween Afghanistan and Pakistan alone hence, needs to be taken up
accordingly. To develop a modern water infrastructure is the genuine need
of Afghanistan for its economic welfare.
It is essential for both of Afghanistan and Pakistan to have a
bilaterally-arranged settlement on the sharing and use of the Kabul River’s
water. In light of the parameters set out in the Indus Waters Treaty, subject
to the canons of the international law regime, a new workable model can be
figured out to resolve any water issue that my arise between the two
countries. By following these parameters the issue can be prevented from
becoming a problem. The treaty will further provide an in-built mechanism
of dispute resolution as well. This arrangement is necessary for regional
peace and prosperity.

Political will on either side of the border, and the World Bank, will be needed
to bring Afghanistan and Pakistan on the negotiating table to find out a
viable solution to this rift.

Source: The News (July 9, 2018).

 12 Afghan dams:
A new threat to Pakistan
World moves on energy and the main source of it is water. In previous days
what India had done to us is passed over, do we realise what Afghanistan is
going to do with us now? Have we decided that after destroying our fields
and villages, we all have to die with thirst. The first time we came to know in
summer of 2010 that Afghanistan is not making one or two but the entire
twelve dams at Kabul river and it has India's full support. Not only the
support, India actually convinced that the river would become a part of the
aggression against Pakistan by creating dozens of dams on the river. India is
not limited to technical support only, it is ready to invest. India has also
developed Afghanistan's feasibility report. Remember that before the
announcement of the project, Afghanistan already had made few dams on
Kabul based on American support. Now in this regard the World Bank is also
ready to provide $8 billion for these dams to Afghanistan.

It is important to imagine the importance of the Kabul River for Pakistan.

The river water is available nine months from February to October. 80
percent of the total agricultural cultivation of KP is irrigated from the same
river. It is watering 60 percent of the land of Noshera, And, 85% fertile land
of Charsadda is dependent on this river. Pakistan has made the Warsaw Dam
over the river. Now, if Afghanistan builds twelve dams on this river and
stores large quantities of water, then what kind of mess Pakistan will be
facing.

It’s been years we know about Afgan dams. But in these years, this matter
has never been discussed in our parliament. Unfortunately our leaders have
rarely talked about how dramatic water crisis is going to get? Has any
ministry prepared any report on it and has Parliament ever organised
special session on that?

Allah has given a natural dam to Pakistan. This is the Kala Bagh Dam.
Unfortunately when there is talk on this dam, some leaders begin jumping on
the ground and say that this dam can only be built on their dead bodies. After
India, Afghanistan too is making dams. But Pakistan is not doing much
despite a crisis.

Pakistan is going to be suffering from a terrible crisis of water. What

Afghanistan is going to do with us is very dangerous. We have a contract
with India, but there is no agreement with Afghanistan regarding water. We
burnt ourselves in Taliban fight but we could not have any agreement on
water from Afghanistan. We delayed the Nailam Jhelum project and the case
of India's Kishan Ganga was strengthened; we could not even make the
Munda Dam and now the number of proposed sub-dams of Afghanistan are
powerful. Is it only our laziness or ineffectiveness?

It is not that we are completely dependent on India and Afghanistan for

water and besides this we have no means. Pakistan is the reward of Allah.
We also have snow curtains that make the water source of water. We also
have monsoon showers and it is rainy in the winter too. Pakistan is wasting
90 percent of its water in the sea because it does not have the dam to store
this water .This wasted water is worth $21 billion annually. First of all, we
will have to make Kala Bagh Dam.

Water crisis is not limited to agricultural use only. The crisis of drinking
water is also there. Only 12 percent of the water supply system is clean and
88% of people connected to it are drinking dirty and hazardous water.
According to the report of the administration of planning and development,
arsenic, fluoride and nitrate is being found in drinking water and according
to the report of the Pakistan Council of Water Resources, 200,000 children
are dying every year due to hazardous health water. According to an
independent report, 300,000 children are dying every year due to hazardous
water.

There is no doubt Pakistan is an agriculture country and depends upon 75%

agriculture cultivation and the major crops are fully valuable even
exportable by modern changes, especially cotton, cane and rice which need
water on time to enhance the value of cultivation. Our leaders need to take
immediate decisions of build dams for the survival of the country and if is
not done one can say that we have made the final decision of collective
suicide?

Source: The Nation (July 09, 2018)

 Afghanistan’s rivers could be India’s
next weapon against Pakistan
Most of Afghanistan is currently experiencing a 60 percent drop in the rain
and snowfall needed for food production. The rapid expansion of Kabul’s
population, extreme drought conditions across the country, and the specter
of climate change have exacerbated the need for new water infrastructure.
But building it is politically complicated; the Afghanistan-Pakistan border
region is defined by its complex maze of transboundary rivers and there is
no legal framework in place to avoid major conflict between the nations.

It’s no surprise, then, that in the Chahar Asiab district of Kabul, on a tributary
of the Kabul River, the Maidan, work is scheduled to begin soon on the
Shahtoot Dam. The dam will hold 146 million cubic meters of potable water
for 2 million Kabul residents and irrigate 4,000 hectares of land. It will also
provide drinking water for a new city on the outskirts of Kabul called Deh
Sabz. Afghanistan is finally, after decades of devastating wars, in a position to
begin to develop its economy and electricity from hydropower.

But this ambitious development is fueling fears downstream in Pakistan that

the new dam will alter the flow of the Kabul River and reduce the water
flows into Pakistan that could severely limit the country’s future access to
water. The Pakistani media outlet Dawn has reported that there could be
a 16 to 17 percent drop in water flow after the completion of the Shahtoot
Dam and other planned dams.

Beyond reducing water flow to Pakistan, the Shahtoot Dam has a unique
capacity to escalate tensions in the region thanks to its funding from India.

Beyond reducing water flow to Pakistan, the Shahtoot Dam

has a unique capacity to escalate tensions in the region
thanks to its funding from India.

India has made major investments in Afghanistan’s infrastructure in recent

years—from highway construction to repair of government buildings and
dams damaged by conflict.

Since 2001, India has pledged about $2 billion total in development projects
in Afghanistan. And while Afghan analysts have made the case that the dam
is critical to surviving future water shortages in Afghanistan, Pakistani
officials in Islamabad are casting India’s investment in a harsher light,
contending that the dam is merely the latest move in India’s grand plan to
strangle Pakistan’s limited water supply. Because Pakistan has failed to build
enough hydropower infrastructure at home, some Pakistanis fear it might
have to buy electricity from Afghanistan in the future.
The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations’ 2011 report on water
security in Central Asia identified coming water pressures as a regional
security threat. The report captured the balancing act India must
successfully pull off as a stakeholder in the construction of the Shahtoot Dam.
“Providing the right support can have a tremendous stabilizing influence, but
providing the wrong support can spell disaster by agitating neighboring
countries.” The committee suggested that if competition over limited water
resources soured Pakistan’s relationship with its neighbors, the
repercussions “will be felt all over the world.”

Water shortages are often the underlying catalysts for war. Lack of water
leads to food shortages, price increases, and famine—all of which can cause
instability and conflict. Recent conflicts in Syria and Yemen grew out of
destabilizing water shortages that, along with other factors, led to all-out
war. A similar dispute has been brewing between Egypt and Ethiopia as
Egypt fears Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will reduce its
share of the Nile River’s flow.

Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani, has made it clear that improving

water availability via dams is a top national priority, and it’s not hard to see
why: Afghanistan’s wells are drying up. A 2017 study by Afghan, German,
and Finnish universities stresses that Afghanistan desperately needs
better water infrastructureand water management.

The city of Kabul was only built to support 1 million people, but in 2018 it is
rapidly expanding toward a population of 5 million. Most Kabul residents
currently depend on groundwater sources, which are depleting rapidly in
part due to thousands of unregulated wells. The Shahtoot Dam could provide
desperately needed clean drinking water and would irrigate thousands of
acres of land in a country where 85 percent of people rely on agriculture for
their livelihoods.

But Afghanistan’s pressing needs do little to diminish neighboring Pakistan’s

anxieties, as both countries are water-stressed and depend on the Kabul
River for drinking water, irrigation, and power

Afghanistan’s pressing needs do little to diminish

neighboring Pakistan’s anxieties, as both countries are
water-stressed and depend on the Kabul River for drinking
water, irrigation, and power generation. Pakistan has a
legitimate concern over India’s investment in Afghan dams, as
the Kabul River’s water flows into Pakistan could be cut or
severely limited by the storage dams, greatly increasing tensions
in a region that is already on edge. It is not just one dam that is
alarming for Pakistan. India has assisted Afghanistan with
studies on the feasibility of a total of 12 dams to be built on the
 Kabul River, which could generate 1,177 megawatts of power
and further reduce water flow into Pakistan.

That’s a threat to a country like Pakistan, which is highly dependent on

agriculture. A World Resources Institute report states that Pakistan could
become the most water-stressed nation in the region by 2040, before
accounting for the potential of reduced water flow from the Kabul River.

Adding to Pakistan’s anxiety, India has also signed an 18-month interim

agreement to oversee the operation of Iran’s Chabahar Port, which would
further lessen Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistan and offer India direct
access to Afghanistan without Pakistan’s involvement.

But if Afghanistan is to develop, it needs better ties with its most intimate
neighbor, with which it shares not only a long history but also an economic
future. Afghanistan has maintained that the impact of the dams on Pakistan
will be minimal and has previously shown little interest in further
hydro-diplomacy, only leading to more anger in Islamabad.

The University of Peshawar in Pakistan convened a conference this month

entitled “Sustainable Usage of Kabul River: Challenges and Opportunities for
Pak-Afghan Cooperation” to highlight the importance of bilateral water
diplomacy and cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

A water-sharing treaty with Pakistan could potentially limit the irrigation

techniques used and the types of hydroelectric projects that can be built
along the Kabul River basin. Academics at the conference warned the
environmental consequences of the series of dams could result in “water
diversion, water shortages, water wastages, water pollution, irrigation
problems, environmental damage, floods, droughts, crop-failures,
socio-economic complications, mass human migrations and the migrating
seasonal birds.” On a grander scale, if Afghanistan’s dams greatly harm
Pakistan’s ability to irrigate its crops, and in turn, feed its people, they could
become a major driver of both intra- and interstate conflict.

Indeed, the potential for a major conflict to break out over water usage rights
has been a chronic concern in the region. Tensions between India and
Pakistan over access to shared waterways have simmered since partition

Tensions between India and Pakistan over access to shared

waterways have simmered since partition in 1947. It was a
separation that disrupted centuries-old irrigation systems and
opened the door for new disputes.

The rough edges left by partition have been tempered by the disputed, but
effective, Indus Waters Treaty, which has provided a legal framework for
water sharing between India and Pakistan since it was signed in 1960. The
treaty has avoided major conflict over water-sharing issues to date. Yet this
uneasy regional peace is being strained by the awakening of the Afghan
economy, which requires electricity and surface water captured from dams.
Afghanistan wants the opportunity to develop as its neighbors have for
decades—and it needs the energy to do so.

Because India is providing the funding and assistance for Kabul, a regional
water war remains a real concern. As India and Pakistan both have
formidable armies and nuclear capabilities, an all-out war is unlikely. It
would be devastating to all involved. However, a gradual strategic water war
could occur, and it would be lethal. Indeed, it would be quite possible to
slowly choke Pakistan’s water flow from both Afghanistan and India without
much advance notice.

In order to avoid a major regional conflict, Afghanistan and Pakistan must

urgently start paying attention to regional hydro-diplomacy. The first step is
to support the gathering of data, which would be shared with all neighbors,
and potential scientific forecasts of the planned dams’ impacts on water flow.
Scientists need to be involved with international diplomatic and scientific
support. This would inform all neighbors of the dam’s potential impacts.

With effective hydro-diplomacy, tensions over the Shahtoot Dam could be

addressed peacefully. An Afghanistan-Pakistan Water Treaty could be
modeled on the Indus Waters Treaty, which has survived two wars, dozens
of skirmishes, and continued bitterness. If perennial rivals India and
Pakistan could maintain an open dialogue in such a strained diplomatic
environment, Pakistan and Afghanistan can commit to yearly meetings to
discuss specific aspects of a possible treaty.

The imperative to prevent current tensions over the Shahtoot Dam from
escalating should outweigh any current animosity between Afghanistan and
Pakistan. These two countries must ensure that their shared water resources
save lives in the region, rather than becoming the flashpoint for a conflict
that could end them.

Source: Foreign Policy (November 13, 2018). Elizabeth B. Hessami is a

visiting attorney for the Environmental Law Institute, researching
post-conflict natural resources management with a focus on Afghanistan.