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IGL - Company Update - 220610
IGL - Company Update - 220610
stock. We revise our target price on the stock to Rs301 (Rs210) owing to the upward Beta 0.5
revision in earnings estimates and lower WACC estimates (to reflect lower risk). 52 Week High / Low 266/126
We upgrade the stock to Buy from Reduce earlier
earlier.. Avg Daily Volume 178384
Margin erosion risk subsides: We had concerns over sustainability of IGL's Face Value (Rs) 10
high margins, which we believed were fueled by lower gas costs (subsidised gas). BSE Sensex 17,750
Also, post end of marketing exclusivity in CY2011 we believed a level playing field Nifty 5,317
would emerge and IGL would have to source gas at higher prices in turn squeezing Reuters Code IGAS.BO
its marketing margins. However, with the hike in CNG prices, our assumption of
Bloomberg Code IGL@IN
margin fall no longer holds good. It also points at the absence of regulatory risks in
the near term. Going ahead, given that KG-D6 and APM gas prices are freezed till Shareholding Pattern (%)
FY2014, IGL would not be required to make significant CNG price hikes. Thus, the
Promoters 45.0
margin erosion risk has subsided substantially.
MF / Banks / Indian FIs 32.4
Volumes to propel profitability: We expect strong growth in CNG conversion in FII / NRIs / OCBs 11.9
IGL's area of operation driven by discretionary CNG demand due to better
Indian Public / Others 10.7
economics. This coupled with strong growth expected in the domestic PNG segment
is likely to drive the company's volume growth going ahead. We expect CNG and Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
PNG volumes to register a CAGR of 14.4% and 36.2% over FY2010-12E respectively,
Sensex 1.9 23.9 22.7
resulting in overall volumes CAGR of 16.9% during the mentioned period. Thus,
strong volume growth coupled with stable EBDITA/scm are likely to drive the IGL 14.0 95.6 110.8
company’s profitability (CAGR of 17.5% over FY2010-12E) going ahead.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Total operating Income 853 1,084 1,612 1,985
% chg 20.8 27.1 48.7 23.1
Net PProfit
rofit 172 215 244 298
% chg (1.1) 24.9 13.4 21.9
OPM (%) 35.2 35.7 29.3 30.5
EPS (Rs) 12.3 15.4 17.5 21.3
P/E (x) 20.7 16.6 14.6 12.0 Deepak PPareek
areek
P/BV (x) 5.2 4.3 3.6 3.0 +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 340
deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
RoE (%) 27.4 28.6 27.0 27.6
RoCE (%) 34.8 38.1 33.8 31.6
Amit Vora
Vora
EV/Sales (x) 3.9 3.2 2.2 1.9
+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 322
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.1 8.9 7.7 6.3 amit.vora@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment Arguments
Margin erosion risks subside substantially
CNG rates in Delhi have increased by Following increase in the APM gas prices, IGL has hiked the prices of compressed
Rs5.6/kg to Rs27.5/kg from Rs21.9/kg
Rs21.9/kg.. natural gas (CNG) by over 26%. The CNG rates in Delhi have increased by Rs5.6/kg
The hike has come as a positive surprise to Rs27.5/kg from Rs21.9/kg. Similarly, the prices in Noida, Greater Noida and
as we had been building in 50% pass Ghaziabad stand increased at Rs30.6/kg. The hike has come as a positive surprise as
through of the APM as well as non-APM we had been building in 50% pass through of the APM as well as non-APM gas price
gas price hike in our estimates hike in our estimates. Earlier statements by the Petroleum Secretary and the government
had also indicated that IGL may not be able to fully pass through the price hike
needed to offset the impact on margins.
We had estimated the required increase in the CNG prices on account of the APM gas
price hike at around Rs3.4/kg (in FY2011E). Hence, the price hike of Rs5.6/kg more
than offsets the increase in the APM gas price (refer Exhibit 1). According to
According to management, the increase management, the increase could be further segregated into Rs5.0/kg on account of
could be further segregated into increase in gas cost, and the balance to the increase in operating expenditure. It may
Rs5.0/kg on account of increase in gas be noted here that IGL has changed over from the gas-based compressors to electric
cost, and the balance to the increase in compressors, which has resulted in reduction in the repairs and maintenance costs.
operating expenditure However, the same has increased the company's operating expenditure.
We believe that the increase of Rs5.0/kg on account of increase in gas cost captures
the increase in the APM gas prices (Rs3.4/kg), higher costs incurred in procuring
KG-D6 gas and R-LNG and higher gas costs for the domestic PNG segment.
The PNG prices have been left unchanged by IGL as any hike in the same would hit
the economics or inducement to switch from domestic LPG to domestic PNG.
Currently, the new PNG user enjoys a marginal advantage of 3.4% over the domestic
LPG users.
Going ahead, given that KGKG-D6-D6 and Going ahead, given that KG-D6 and APM gas prices are freezed till FY2014, IGL
APM gas prices are freezed till FY2014, would not be required to make significant CNG price hikes barring a minor increase
IGL would not be required to make due to change in the procurement mix and increase in operating expenditure. Thus,
significant CNG price hikes the margin erosion risk has subsided substantially. Moreover, in spite of the recent
increase in the CNG prices in the NCT, the CNG prices in the region are the least in
the country owing to the lower taxes levied by the Delhi government (refer Exhibit
4 & 5). Therefore, further increase in the CNG prices would not be a tough task.
With the recent increase in the CNG IGL's profitability and fair value estimates are highly sensitive to the per unit change in
prices, the pricing risk has subsidised to its gross margins. To put things in perspective, if the gross margins are reduced by
a greater extent. FFactoring
actoring the same, we Rs1.0/scm from FY2011E onwards, our fair value estimates would decline by a
rate/WA
have reduced our discount rate/W ACC whopping 26% to Rs221/share. Similarly, our earnings estimates also stands reduced
(weighted average cost of capital) by by 25.4% and 23.9% for FY2011E and FY2012E respectively under the same scenario.
50bp to 11.5% from 12.0% However, with the recent increase in the CNG prices, the pricing risk has subsidised to
a greater extent. Factoring the same, we have reduced our discount rate/WACC
(weighted average cost of capital) by 50bp to 11.5% from 12.0% earlier.
The conversion economics continues to remain strong irrespective of the recent hike in
CNG prices, as CNG vehicle continue offer savings of around 57.3% over the petrol
driven vehicles (largely on account of lower taxes on CNG compared to Petrol prices).
Moreover, in Delhi penetration of the CNG vehicles is still at lower levels and launch
of the newer CNG variants cars by the automotive companies could keep conversions
in high growth orbit.
250
219
191
200 181
163
146 153
150 134
100
50
-
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Source: Company, Angel Research
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
CNG Buses Auto RTV (LCVs) Others
We expect the PNG volumes to post a The company's PNG segment contributes a mere 13% to overall revenues. Lower
robust CAGR of 36.2% over FY2010-12E
CAGR contribution is however due to greater focus on development of the CNG infrastructure
in the past adhering to the judicial verdict. However, now with most of IGL's CNG
infrastructure in place, it has turned its focus towards the fast-growing PNG segment.
IGL expects to add 50,000 domestic users annually. Given the relatively lower
penetration of PNG in the region, we believe the targets can be achieved and aid
volumes. With this, we expect the PNG segment volumes to post a robust CAGR of
36.2% over FY2010-12E.
Owing to the significant improvement in gas availability in the country, IGL has also
started tapping the industrial users. IGL's industrial sales volumes constitute less than
5% of its overall sales volumes unlike peer Gujarat Gas, which has higher share of
industrial volumes. Thus, IGL's industrial segment has huge potential to ramp up in
the long run particularly with Delhi and its adjoining areas having demand of around
3-4mmscmd. The company currently supplies to around 25-26 users in the industrial
segment, with the off-take increasing from around 1,600/scm per day per user in
FY2010 to 4,500/scm per day per user now.
Overall volumes are expected to register Overall volumes are expected to register 16.9% CAGR over FY2010-12E on robust
16.9% CA GR over FY2010-12E on
CAGR volume growth expected in CNG and PNG. We estimate revenue to register a robust
robust volume growth expected in CNG CAGR of 35.5% over FY2010-12E on the back of strong volumes and higher realisations
and PNG (on account of the 25.5% hike in CNG prices undertaken in Delhi to pass through the
increase in gas cost). Thus, we expect bottom-line to register 17.5% CAGR over the
mentioned period.
(Rs cr)
4.00
(%)
14.5 15.0
150 13.4
3.00 10.0
100
2.00 5.0
50 0.0
1.00 (1.1)
0 (5.0)
- FY2006 FY2008 FY2010 FY2012E
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E PAT (Rs Cr) PAT growth (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Apart from the margin erosion concerns, lack of growth in the newer areas, viz. Noida,
Greater Noida, Ghaziabad, Faridabad and Gurgoan impacted performance of the
stock on the bourses. Pertinently, growth beyond the NCT was restricted for IGL due to
litigation and gas allocation constraints in the earlier years. In case of the NCR towns
of Faridabad and Gurgoan, networks were built by Adani Energy and Haryana City
Gas respectively, which prevented entry of IGL into these regions. Also, gas allocation
initially made to IGL for these regions were given to respective companies on the
directions of the Supreme Court. IGL's expansion plan in Ghaziabad was hit due to
With the regulatory concerns already authorisation issues with the regulator. However, with the regulatory concerns already
addressed by the Delhi High Court, we addressed by the Delhi High Court, we expect growth in Noida, greater Noida and
expect growth in Noida, greater Noida Ghaziabad to take care of the scalability concerns.
and Ghaziabad to take care of the
According to the PNGRB, the demand estimates for Ghaziabad currently stands close
scalability concerns
to 0.5mmscmd (18.4% of IGL's expected throughput for FY2011E), which could rise to
0.94mmscmd in the long run. Similarly, for Noida the demand estimates currently
stand at 0.14mmscmd, which could rise to 0.35mmscmd in the long run. Thus,
expansion in these geographies is likely to drive the company's growth going ahead.
Financial Analysis
Exhibit 12: Key Operating Assumptions
Particulars FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Sales Volume break
Volume -up
break-up
CNG volumes (mmscm) 605 692 789 907
PNG volumes (mmscm) 54 82 132 152
Total volumes (mmscm) 660 774 922 1,059
Gas Sourcing Volume break
Volume -up
break-up
APM Gas (mmscm) 713 748 767 803
KG Gas (mmscm) - 85 225 336
Natural Gas consumed (mmscm) 713 833 992 1,139
Other Assumptions
APM Gas Price (Rs/scm) 5.3 5.4 8.0 8.5
KG Gas Price (Rs/scm) - 11.9 12.1 11.8
Blended cost of Gas sold (Rs/scm) 6.2 6.4 9.6 10.2
Other Operating Expenditure (Rs/scm) 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.9
EBITDA (Rs/scm) 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.7
Capex (Rs cr) 172 386 500 550
Source: Company, Angel Research
We expect the company's Revenue IGL's revenues recorded CAGR of 23.6% during FY2008-10. We expect the company's
growth to expand and post robust CAGR
CAGR Revenue growth to expand and post robust CAGR of 35.5% over FY2010-12E mainly
of 35.5% over FY2010-12E on account of the substantial 25.6% CNG price hike (from Rs21.9 per kg to Rs27.5
per kg) undertaken in Delhi and also in the NCR region to pass through the impact of
substantial increase in gas cost coupled with strong volume growth.
IGL has long been under the scanner of various stakeholders due to high RoE and
EBITDA Margins. It managed superior margins compared to other CGD players like
Gujarat Gas as it procured gas from GAIL at APM prices, while the others procured
gas at market prices. However, with the ease with which the company managed to
pass through the increase in gas and operating costs, we expect the company to
maintain its EBITDA margin per unit of sales volume. But, as the same margin per unit
will be earned on higher sales, we estimate EBIDA margins to contract. Thus, we
expect OPMs to hover around 30% levels in FY2011E and FY2012E from around 35%
levels registered in FY2009 and FY2010.
We expect PProfit
rofit to register 17.5% CAGR
CAGR We estimate depreciation to increase by a whopping 48.6% yoy in FY2011E and
on robust volume growth 34.2% yoy in FY2012E due to estimated capex of around Rs500cr and Rs550cr in
FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively. The company plans to incur capex towards adding
around 53 CNG outlets and expanding its PNG roll out. During FY2008-10, IGL
posted 11.1% CAGR in Bottom-line despite cost pressures. Over FY2010-12E, we
expect Profit to register 17.5% CAGR on robust volume growth.
Historically, IGL's RoE has been hovering around 30.0% levels. In FY2009 and FY2010,
the company's RoE stood at 27.4% and 28.6%, respectively. Going ahead, because of
the company's ability to maintain its margins, we expect RoE to be maintained around
similar levels of 27% in FY2011E and 27.6% in FY2012E.
Concerns
Regulatory risks: As per the PNGRB regulations, the regulator can only control
network tariffs, while the end product pricing is not controlled. However, if there is any
change in the regulation, which caps the overall returns to be made by the CGD
entity, there could be a change in our view on the stock. The concerns over fixation of
the overall returns have arisen especially after zero tariff bidding by various entities
such as IOC-Adani Energy for Ghaziabad, making a mockery of the entire bidding
exercise. 'Zero' tariff will be recouped by the bidding companies through the CNG
charges levied on users - household or industries - as they deem fit. So, it is believed
that if the retail prices are not regulated and regulations create monopolies, the
consumer interest is bound to get compromised.
Change in TTax
ax structure of CNG
CNG:: A large part of the arbitrage between the CNG
and petrol prices is primarily fueled due to the differential tax structure. In case of MS
(petrol) and gas oil (diesel), taxes constitute 48.8% and 34.6% of the current selling
price, respectively. While the CNG attracts lower taxation at 14.4%. If the Delhi
government were to change the tax rate on CNG, it could impact margins as well as
the new vehicle conversions.
80
48.75
65.36
60 85.58
(%)
40
51.25
20 34.64
14.42
0
Petrol Diesel CNG
Taxes Prices without Taxes
Source: PPAC, Angel Research
We believe that even post end of the marketing exclusivity in CY2011E, IGL will be
able to maintain its margins, as the PNGRB regulations limits network and compression
tariffs with marketing margins being left out presuming it will be self-regulated due to
competitive forces. As for the impact of the end of the marketing exclusivity on volumes
is concerned, we believe that competition is likely to have minuscule impact on IGL's
volumes. On the CNG volumes front, IGL is likely to maintain large market share in
the visible future post end of marketing exclusivity due to its strong parentage (BPCL,
GAIL and Government of Delhi), tie-ups with oil marketing companies (OMCs) for
dispensing CNG, significant expansion of CNG stations till end of the exclusivity period.
At current levels of Rs255, the stock is discounting 14.6x and 12.0x FY2011E and
FY2012E Earnings. IGL has historically traded in the range of 9-13x its one-year
forward earnings. We upgrade our DCF-based target price of the IGL to Rs301 (Rs210)
on the back of upward revision in earnings estimates and lower WACC estimates (to
reflect lower pricing risk). Hence, we upgrade the stock to Buy from Reduce.
Calculation of FFair
air Value
Value Target Price sensitivity with WACC and Terminal Growth Rate
Particulars FY2011E FY2012E 11.3% 11.5% 11.8% 12.0% 12.3%
Discount rate (%) 11.5 11.5 1.0% 287 283 280 277 274
PV of cashflows (FY09-20E) 1,815 2,138 1.5% 296 292 288 284 281
Terminal value calculations 2.0% 305 301 296 292 289
Growth to perpetuity(%) 2.0 2.0 2.5% 316 311 306 302 297
FCF in 2020 542 542 3.0% 328 322 317 312 307
Exit FCF multiple 10.7 10.7 Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 17: One-Year Forward P/E Exhibit 18: Rolling and Median P/E
280 25.0
230 21.0
Share Price (Rs)
180
PE multiple
17.0
130
13.0
80
9.0
30
Dec-04
Aug-05
Dec-06
Aug-07
Dec-08
Aug-09
Apr-04
Apr-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
5.0
Apr-04
Aug-05
Apr-06
Aug-07
Apr-08
Aug-09
Apr-10
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
7.0x 9.0x 11.0x 13.0x 15.0x
Exhibit 19: One-Year Forward P/BV Exhibit 20: One-Year Forward EV/EBITDA
350 4,000
300 3,500
250 3,000
Share Price (Rs)
2,500
EV (Rs cr)
200
2,000
150
1,500
100
1,000
50
500
- 0
Dec-04
Aug-05
Dec-06
Aug-07
Dec-08
Aug-09
Apr-04
Apr-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
Dec-04
Aug-05
Dec-06
Aug-07
Dec-08
Aug-09
Apr-04
Apr-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 4.0x 4.0x 3.5x 4.5x 5.5x 6.5x
Exhibit 21: Relative Performance to Sensex - Oil & Gas Induex Exhibit 22: Relative Performance to Peers
450 500.0
400
400.0
350
300 BSE OIL & GAS
300.0
250
200 SENSEX 200.0
150
100 IGL 100.0
50
-
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec -05
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec -09
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec -06
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec -08
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec -07
Dec -10
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
IGL SENSEX BSEOIL Petronet LNG GAIL GGAS IGL
Exhibit 23: Underperformance Relative to Sensex Exhibit 24: Underperformance relative to Oil & Gas Index
25 50
20
-
(10)
(25) (40)
(50) (70)
(100)
(75)
(130)
(100) (160)
(190)
(125)
(220)
(150) (250)
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-10
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
SENSEX IGL BSEOIL IGL
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Company Background
IGL is in the retail gas distribution business supplying CNG to the Transport sector and
piped natural gas (PNG) to domestic and commercial sectors in the NCT region of
Delhi and NCR region. IGL was incorporated in December 1998 as a joint venture
(JV) between two oil & gas majors - GAIL and BPCL (each holding 22.5% stake) and
government of NCT of Delhi (5% stake) to implement the city gas distribution (CGD)
project in NCT. IGL currently has 193 CNG fuel stations operating in Delhi and NCR.
It plans to add around 53 CNG stations in FY2011 and FY2012. It has a CNG
compression capacity of 3.64mn kg/day and currently fuels more than 3,40,000
vehicles daily. In the PNG segment, IGL has provided PNG connections to over 1,82,000
domestic and 357 commercial customers. Going forward, IGL plans to add around
50,000 PNG customers every year. IGL is now expanding its network into the NCR
towns of Noida, Greater Noida and Ghaziabad.
Business Model
Initial phase of conversion was driven IGL as a CGD player is primarily engaged in the business of distribution of CNG (87%
by mandatory users, current conversions of FY2010 Net Sales). IGL's CNG users can be classified into mandatory and
driven by discretionary users discretionary users. The mandatory users (compulsory users as mandated by law)
include DTC and private buses, RTVs and Autos. Discretionary users of CNG include
private cars, which use CNG due to the low running cost. While initial phase of
conversion was driven by mandatory users, current conversions are driven by
discretionary users.
85
91.5 90.2 89.2 88.3 87.1 86.0
80 85.2
75
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
CNG Sales (% of Total) PNG Sales (% of Total)
Source: Company, Angel Research
CNG and PNG selling price is currently IGL is currently pricing its products at a discount to alternative fuels in both the CNG
determined vis -à-vis relative prices of
vis-à-vis and PNG segments. In the CNG segment, IGL has priced its gas at a discount to
alternative fuels petrol and diesel prices. CNG is priced at 57.3% discount to petrol and 40.6% to
diesel. Similarly, in the domestic PNG segment the fuel price is indexed to the
administered retail selling price of domestic LPG (14.2 kg) cylinder in the NCT, as
applicable from time to time, taking into account the respective heating values of
natural gas and LPG. In the small commercial users segment, PNG is indexed to
commercial LPG (19 kg) cylinder in the NCT of Delhi, as applicable from time to time,
taking into account the respective heating values of natural gas and LPG. Large
commercial users (big hotels, etc) are the PNG users replacing LDO and commercial
LPG. Thus, price in the segment is indexed to weighted average price of LDO and
commercial LPG in the NCT taking into account the respective heating values of natural
gas, LPG and LDO.
APM gas, which was available at Gas sourcing is an important aspect of the CGD business. GAIL is the sole supplier of
subsidised APM prices of around US APM natural gas to IGL. The company has gas purchase agreement for 2.2mmscmd
$1.8/mmbtu, is now aligned with RIL's with GAIL. Gas is received at various points of the Hazira-Bijaipur-Jagdishpur (HBJ)
KG -D6 price of US $4.2/mmbtu
KG-D6 pipeline around Delhi. As the gas cost is denominated in Rupee terms, IGL is insulated
from exchange rate risks. The gas, which was available at subsidised APM prices of
around US $1.8/mmbtu, is now aligned with RIL's KG-D6 price of US $4.2/mmbtu. In
the previous fiscal, IGL entered into a gas sales and purchase agreement (GSPA) with
RIL for supply of 0.31mmscmd of gas from the KG-D6 fields scalable to 0.5mmscmd.
IGL is using RIL's gas for expanding its presence in the Delhi. IGL has also entered into
a gas transportation agreement (GTA) with Reliance Gas Transportation Infrastructure.
Staff expenditure 14 15 24 31 38 46
Other Income 10 23 26 15 24 26
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 206 261 259 324 369 449
ADJ
ADJ.. PPA
AT 138 174 172 215 244 298
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 9.9 12.5 12.3 15.4 17.5 21.3
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Shareholders FFunds
unds 468 576 683 825 984 1,177
Minority Interest - - - - - -
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
APPLICATION
Goodwill - - - - - -
Other 40 47 58 73 97 117
Cash Flow from Operations 213 207 212 314 400 458
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (58) (83) (172) (386) (500) (550)
Other income 10 23 26 15 24 26
Cash Flow from Investing (133) (41) (141) (302) (476) (524)
Issue of Equity - - - - - -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (40) (49) (66) (74) (86) (105)
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 25.9 20.5 20.7 16.6 14.6 12.0
P/CEPS 18.1 15.1 14.9 12.2 9.9 7.9
P/BV 7.6 6.2 5.2 4.3 3.6 3.0
Dividend yield (%) 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5
EV/Sales 5.5 4.7 3.9 3.2 2.2 1.9
EV/EBITDA 13.4 11.1 11.1 8.9 7.7 6.3
EV/Total Assets 6.8 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.0 2.3
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 9.9 12.5 12.3 15.4 17.5 21.3
EPS (fully diluted) 9.9 12.5 12.3 15.4 17.5 21.3
Cash EPS 14.1 16.9 17.1 20.9 25.7 32.3
DPS 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.2 6.4
Book Value 33.4 41.2 48.8 58.9 70.3 84.1
Dupont Analysis (%)
EBIT margin 31.8 33.6 27.3 28.7 22.2 22.8
Tax retention ratio 67.2 67.0 66.9 66.3 66.3 66.3
Asset turnover (x) 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5
ROIC (Post-tax) 37.5 45.9 37.1 32.9 25.2 23.0
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - -
Leverage (x) - - - - - -
Operating ROE 37.5 45.9 37.1 32.9 25.2 23.0
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 42.4 42.8 34.8 38.1 33.8 31.6
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 61.2 78.7 66.6 62.5 49.1 43.3
ROE 32.6 33.4 27.4 28.6 27.0 27.6
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1
Inventory / Sales (days) 11.7 11.3 10.0 9.1 8.5 9.2
Receivables (days) 11.2 10.7 11.7 12.2 10.0 9.7
Payables (days) 66.2 67.9 53.1 53.8 54.6 64.1
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (26.8) (30.4) (21.1) (16.9) (18.5) (19.6)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.1) 0.0 0.2
Net debt to EBITDA (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.3) 0.1 0.4
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) - - - - - 16.1
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Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Indraprastha Gas
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com
Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com
Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com
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