Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Brexit: Brexit Deeply and Bitterly Divided
Brexit: Brexit Deeply and Bitterly Divided
That hasn’t stopped the flurry of news out of the UK, and it’s
hard to keep up with each new development — or understand
what it all means, especially since Brexit has introduced a
whole new vocabulary, from “Irish backstop” to “second
referendum.”
Vox has received a lot of reader questions, and my colleagues
on the Worldly podcast have answered a bunch, which you
can check out here. Here’s another attempt to explain some of
the big questions we get from readers, along with others that
might help you understand what in the holy hell is going on.
1) What is Brexit?
But the UK has always had a degree of distance from the EU. It
maintains its own currency, the sterling pound, and never
joined the Schengen agreement, which eliminates internal
border controls within the EU. But the UK is still required to
embrace the movement of people, as part of those four
freedoms.
Cameron won, and kept his promise. The UK held the Brexit
referendum on June 23, 2016. There were two choices: Leave
(the EU) or Remain.
May was still unable to get her deal through Parliament even
with a delay. She reached out to the opposition Labour
Party to find a compromise to break the impasse, but
she again had to ask the EU for another extension until June
30.
The UK still hasn’t been able to figure that out, nearly three
years after it voted to leave. That’s in large part due to the
lack of clarity in the 2016 referendum on what “leave” actually
meant.
People who favor a hard Brexit want to get out of the customs
union so that Britain can pursue an independent trade policy.
They also want out of the single market to gain control over
issues such as immigration. Those who favor this approach
want a clean break with the EU and would replace these
current partnerships with a free trade deal or a series of
trade agreements with the EU.
And as the Brexit process has worn on, members of this camp
have become more and more willing to risk a no-deal
Brexit to get the UK out of the EU immediately and, in their
minds, avoid any lingering entanglements. Such a precise
break is more wishful thinking than reality, mostly because
the UK just can’t replace its largest trading partner
overnight. But this has become a more attractive option for a
growing number of Brexiteers who just “get on” with it.
On the other side are those who favor a softer Brexit. This
camp wants to keep closer ties with the EU. There are also
divisions within the “soft” Brexit camp. Some just want
customs union membership, others want full access to the
single market, some want both — basically as close as
possible tole to staying in the EU without actually being in the
EU. This would soften the blow to the British economy when
Brexit becomes official.
And while we’re on the subject, let’s talk about that deal.
May, when triggering Article 50, told the EU that she wanted
the UK and the bloc to agree to a “deep and special
partnership that takes in both economic and security
cooperation.” In order to do this, she said, the two sides
should “agree to the terms of our future partnerships,
alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.”
And then there are the other, smaller (yet still influential)
parties, including the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the
Liberal Democrats, who say they want to remain in the EU.
But Theresa May’s new Brexit plan was mostly the same. The
few concessions she did offer mostly appealed to Remainers,
not the hardcore Brexiteers she needed to win over to
successfully get anything through Parliament. With no chance
of bringing her deal for a fourth vote, and support from her own
party failing, May had no choice but to resign.
But Johnson faced the exact same dilemma that May had: a
divided Parliament that hated May’s Brexit deal, and an EU
leadership that continued to say it was the only deal on offer.
This would mean checks on the Irish Sea (so goods moving
from the rest of the UK into Northern Ireland), and will also
require some sort of customs checks in both Northern Ireland
and Ireland, but just away from the border.
There have been a few signs that Johnson might be able to win
a majority in Parliament with this deal — something the EU
also wants assurance of, if it’s going to make concessions.
But some leaks from 10 Downing Street this week made it
look as if the prime minister was trying to blame the EU for
being intractable and sidelining negotiations.
Which is why their stance has always been that it’s willing to
negotiate — but never at the expense of the integrity of EU
institutions or peace on the island of Ireland.
But there are a lot of issues here. One is timing: Estimates say
it would take at least 22 weeks to hold a referendum, which
means the UK would have to ask the EU for more time, again.
But it’s also not totally bad news for Johnson. His argument is
going to be pretty simple: Give me a Parliament that will
support me taking the UK out of the EU, and I’ll get it done.
Sure, the extension is a hiccup, but it’s probably not fatal for
him, and will bolster the case he’s been trying to make all
along: It’s not me, it’s Parliament.
And Labour, the main opposition party, has its own problems.
Jeremy Corbyn — the guy most likely to challenge Johnson for
the prime ministership — is unpopular right now. Like, really
unpopular. More Brits said they’d support a no-deal Brexit
over having Corbyn as prime minister in a recent poll.
Labour and Lib Dems will have to decide if they’ll fight for the
same votes or make difficult compromises to work together in
any election. That also doesn’t solve the problem of Corbyn
himself.
For all these reasons, this is an outcome that both the UK and
the EU want to avoid. (Although the EU is more prepared —
and slightly more insulated — from the effects of a no-deal, it’s
still going be disruptive for EU countries.)