2016 IEEE 8th International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference (IPEMC-ECCE Asia)
Economic Evaluation of Harmonic Cost
Zhemin Lin, Xuchang Zhang, Xun Mao, Yong Zhan
Dept. of Power System Analysis
State Grid Anhui Electric Power Company Electric Power
Research Institute
Hefei, China
Abstract—With the development of electronic technology, an
increasing number of electronic devices are widely used in
modern power grid. Accordingly, harmonic distortion and
associated economic losses have become of increasing concern to
both power suppliers and end users. For the purpose of harmonic
regulations and investment analysis, the harmonic cost, mainly
the potential economic losses due to equipment fail or
malfunction that caused by high levels of harmonic distortions
are discussed in this paper. A Wei-bull distribution is used to
represent the interruption probability of harmonic distortions.
Then, the effect of time of occurrence is quantified by a time
varying coefficient, which is derived from daily load curve.
Together, a time dependent harmonic related cost model is
proposed. As a whole, this cost model provides a flexible and easy
way to estimate the expected value of potential interruption cost
due to harmonic distortions.
Keywords—power quality, power system ecomomic, harmoincs.
I. INTRODUCTION
Nowadays, a growing amount of harmonic distortions are
introduced by widely used electronic devices in modern power
systems [1], it becomes of increasing concern to both power
suppliers and users. As the economic consequences of
harmonic distortions might be significant [2], it is necessary to
evaluate harmonic cost in detail before any harmonic reduction
investments and regulations are made. Generally, the effects of
harmonic distortions on system and associated equipment will
fall into three aspects: additional energy consumption,
premature aging and mis-operation [3]. In most papers [4]-[8],
the economic consequences of additional energy consumption
and premature aging have been well studied, and mis-operation
cost has been normally identified as short interruption cost.
However, when the mis-operation cost due to harmonic
distortions is evaluated in terms of short interruption cost, it is
hard to distinguish the losses caused by harmonic distortions
from the ones caused by other power quality issues. This will
lead to a bias evaluation on harmonic cost, especially for the
profit/investment balancing analysis of harmonic reduction
measures. Therefore, the economic consequences due to
interruptions caused by harmonic distortions should be
particularly evaluated.
Generally, there are many factors should be considered in
economic evaluations of power quality disturbances, such as
type of customer, customer consumptions, disturbed duration,
etc. [9]-[12]. For interruptions caused by harmonic distortions,
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Xiaotao Peng, Bin Zhang
School of Electrical Engineering
Wuhan University
Wuhan, China
the economic evaluations are mainly affected by two aspects:
probability of occurrence and time of occurrence. Normally,
harmonic distortions are treated as a power quality variation,
which is a continuous phenomenon [13]. However, as most
devices are designed to operate under a certain level of
harmonic distortions without affecting performance, it is
important to consider this trigger level while evaluating the
probability of mis-operation. In this case, unlike standard ways,
harmonic distortions are considered as a discrete phenomenon
with a trigger level (power quality event) in probability of
occurrence evaluation.
In power quality cost calculations, the effects of time of
occurrence have already been discussed in many literatures
[14]-[16]. In [14]-[16], customers are specifically asked to
estimate the degrees of financial damages in terms of variations
associated with hourly, daily, or monthly values based on their
stated power quality disturbance costs. According to these
variations, the costs for specific time of occurrence are then
estimated. Whereas, [17]-[20] evaluate the time of occurrence
according to a time varying fault rate. This time varying fault
rate is then used to estimate the long term power quality
disturbance cost. However, the evaluation method in [17]-[20]
is only suitable for cost estimation in terms of years, and the
accuracy of evaluation in [14]-[16] mainly depends on
customer estimations. As the economic consequences of
interruptions caused by harmonics are usually results of short
term distortions in terms of hours rather than years, and the
values of costs are varying from hours to hours, a short term
economic calculation model that could truly reflects the
variation of time of occurrence is required for the evaluation of
interruption cost caused by harmonics.
In this paper, based on the features of occurrence when
harmonic distortions are above the trigger level, a Wei-bull
distribution probability model is proposed and used in
probability of occurrence calculation. Then a predefined time
varying coefficient is used to describe the time dependent
interruption cost caused by harmonic distortions.
II. PROBABLITY OF OCCURRENCE
A. The Trigger Level
Normally, the Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) is a
common tool to measure the contents and severity of
harmonics. The IEEE Standard 519 [13] recommends that the
THD design value (the worst case lasting more than one hour)
 2016 IEEE 8th International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference (IPEMC-ECCE Asia)
of bus voltage at PCC for utilities below 69kV is 5%.
Accordingly, it is believed that any harmonic variations with
THD of bus voltage at PCC larger than 5% and lasting more
than one hour will probably result in the system and associated
equipment fail or malfunction. In contrast, if THD of bus
voltage at PCC is less than 5% or lasting less than one hour, the
system and associated equipment will not have the probability
of failure or malfunction. Hence, the trigger level of mis-
operation due to harmonic could be set as 5% THD of bus
voltage at PCC for utilities below 69kV.
B. The Duration of Harmoinc Distortion
Due to the fact that some equipment could even survive
from THD of voltage up to 50% within very short period of
time, such as start-up or unusual conditions [13], rather than
the THD of voltage, the duration of harmonic distortion
becomes the main concerned factor in this probability
calculation.
C. The Probablity of Occurrence
The probability of interruption due to harmonic distortion is
evaluated according to historical data. For the purpose of
calculation and prediction, the raw historical data is further
manipulated in terms of number of harmonic distortions with
THD>5%, number of interruptions and associated durations.
And the durations are divided into different time frames with a
time interval. For example, if the historical durations of
harmonic variations vary within 6 hours, and the time interval
is one hour. Then it is possible to have the following time
frames, 0-1 hours, 1-2 hours, 2-3 hours, 3-4 hours, 4-5 hours
and 5-6 hours. Any duration allocated within a given frame is
represented as the associated maximum duration, as shown in
Table I.
TABLE I. EXAMPLE OF HISTORICAL DATA
No. of Harmonic No. of
Time Distortions with Interruptions due to
Approximate
Frame THD>5% Harmonic
Duration (Hour)
(Hour) (NTHD ) Distortions
(Ntrip )
0-1 1 n1 i1
1-2 2 n2 i2
2-3 3 n3 i3
3-4 4 n4 i4
4-5 5 n5 i5
5-6 6 n6 i6
With these approximate durations, it is possible to gain the
information on the historical data as shown in Table I. For
example, n2 represents the total number of harmonic distortions
with duration lasting between 1 and 2 hours. Accordingly, the
number of interruptions due to associated harmonic distortions
is i2.
Unlike most of the regular probability distribution
calculations, the occurrence of interruptions is quite random
among harmonic distortions with THD>5%. It is thus not
always possible to describe this kind of probability distribution
with common distributions. Furthermore, the sample size of
historical data is usually relative small, the highly adaptable
Wei-bull distribution appears to be the best model to describe
such a probability problem.
In terms of Weibull distribution, the measuring independent
variable is the duration of harmonic distortions, expressed as t.
Therefore, the cumulative occurrence probability of
interruptions due to harmonic distortions could be represented
as [21],
β
t
F (t ; α , β ) = p (t ) = 1 − exp[ −   ] (1)
a
where F(t; α, β) indicates the probability of interruption
within a duration lasting less than or equal to t. And α, as the
scale parameter, represents the time when the occurrence
probability is 1-1/e = 0.632. β, as the shape parameter, suggests
the range of number of interruptions, the larger β is, the smaller
the range of numbers is [22].
Accordingly, the expected economic losses of interruptions
due to harmonic distortions with duration t could be
represented as,
   t  β 
C ( t ) = Caverage × N average × 1 − exp  −     (2)
   α  
where, Caverage is the average economic losses each
interruption caused by harmonic distortion, Naverage is the
average number of harmonic distortions with THDV>5%.
Based on (2), the expected economic losses vary with the
probability of interruptions. The more likely the occurrence of
interruptions, the larger economics losses are.
III. TIME OF OCCURRENCE
A. The relationship between Load Demand and Econmic
Losses
Taking an industrial customer as example, when load
demands of this customer stay at a relatively high level, it
means that most industrial processes are in operation.
Compared with the normal load condition, an interruption at
this time will impact all the operating processes. In contrast,
during off-peak hours, if anything, only parts of the industrial
processes are in operation, accordingly load demand of
industrial customer drops to a relatively low level. The severity
of an interruption at this time will certainly be much smaller
than normal load condition.
It is easy to conclude that, during peak periods, electricity
consumers, especially large and sensitive consumers, suffer
higher economic losses due to interruptions caused by
harmonic distortions. However, during off-peak periods, they
will experience much lower economic losses.
 2016 IEEE 8th International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference (IPEMC-ECCE Asia)

B. The Time Varying Coefficient distortions in the past 5 years is sorted out as Table III, where
Based on the load demand at different time, i.e. the daily only concerned data are needed.
load curve, the time varying coefficient is represented in terms
of load demand, which can be expressed as: TABLE II. TYPICAL DAILY LOAD VARIATION OF INDUSTRIAL
CUSTOMER

Time of Load Demand Time of Load Demand

1 + L − Lα  × 100
  (3) Observation (kW) Observation (kW)
ω
λω =
 Lα  1:00 150 13:00 285
2:00 170 14:00 289
where L is the load demand at observed time point ; La is 3:00 180 15:00 290
the total average load demand, (L - La)/La is the load demand 4:00 185 16:00 280
deviation percentage at observed time point from the average 5:00 190 17:00 275
load demand. And the average load demand can be calculated 6:00 200 18:00 270
thus 7:00 220 19:00 260
8:00 240 20:00 230
j 9:00 250 21:00 220
L ω
10:00 270 22:00 210
ω =1 11:00 275 23:00 200
La = (4)
j 12:00 280 0:00 180

j is the number of observation. Accordingly, the average TABLE III. HISTORICAL DATA OF HARMONIC DISTORTIONS IN THE PAST
5 YEARS
load demand is derived from historical data. It should be noted
that load demands are normally recorded discretely rather than The Number of The Number of
continuously. Hence, the observed load demand varies at an Time Approximate Harmonic Interruptions due to
interval. To make the time varying coefficient more precise, the Frame Duration t Distortions with Harmonic
interval of observation is defined as every one hour. (Hour) (Hour) THD>5% Distortions
(NTHD ) (Ntrip )
Therefore, the time dependent interruption cost due to 0-1 1 3 2
harmonic distortions could be evaluated as 1-2 2 5 0
2-3 3 4 2
Ci = λωti × C ( t ) (5) 3-4 4 5 2
4-5 5 7 4
5-6 6 9 6
In Equation (5), the duration t is varying within one load
6-7 7 9 7
demand observation interval. When the duration t covers more
than one interval, the cost could be calculated as, 7-8 8 19 11
8-9 9 20 14
9-10 10 18 13
γ

= λωt1 × C ( t1 ) + λωt x [C (t x ) − C ( t x −1 )] (6)

10-11 11 17 11
Ct total 11-12 12 15 10
x=2
12-13 13 12 9
13-14 14 13 8
where, γ indicates the number of intervals that the duration
may cover, t1 is the duration in the first load demand 14-15 15 14 7
observation interval; tx is the duration lasting from the 15-16 16 6 5
beginning to the xth observation interval, which is larger than t1; 16-17 17 4 3
λωt1 indicates the first time varying coefficients; λωtx 17-18 18 3 2
18-19 19 4 3
represents the following time varying coefficient in xth
19-20 20 2 2
observation interval, respectively. According to (5) and (6), the
time dependent cost model is capable of evaluating the According to above discussions, the historical durations of
economic losses with various durations. harmonic distortions are represented by an approximate
duration t (the maximum duration) in further calculations. As
IV. NUMBERIC EXAMPLE shown in Table III, the durations of harmonic distortions of this
industrial customer are lasting less than 20 hours in the past 5
A. Historial Data years. And the occurrences distribution of interruptions via
durations could be represented by Fig.1. Due to larger amount
The typical daily load variation of an industrial customer is of harmonic distortions with THD>5%, there are more
shown in Table II, and the historical data of harmonic interruptions when harmonic distortions lasting between 7 to
 2016 IEEE 8th International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference (IPEMC-ECCE Asia)

12 hours, as shown in Fig.1. It should be noted that this doesn’t historical data in Table III, the average number of harmonic
mean harmonic distortions with durations from 7 to 12 hours distortions with THD>5% is 37.8. Together, according to
are more likely to cause interruptions. Equation (2), the expected economic losses due to industrial
process interruptions caused by harmonic distortions are

  t  2.93 
C ( t ) = 1614 × 37.8 × {1 − exp  −    (8)
  12.05  
Accordingly, for any harmonic distortions covering one
load demand observation interval, the expected value of
economic losses due to harmonics could be calculated
according to (8). And the relationship between duration and
harmonic distortion cost could be described as Fig.2.

Fig. 1. Occurrence distribution of interruptions due to harmonic distortions

B. Expected Economic Losses due to Harmonic Distortions

Based on the above data, it is possible to estimate the
interruption probability by the cumulative density function (cdf)
of Weibull distribution. In this paper, the business analytics
software Statistical Analysis System (SAS) is used to estimate
the Weibull distribution parameters. Given the number of
interruptions and associated durations as inputs, the outputs of
estimated Weibull parameters are shown in Table IV, where
the ‘estimate’ represents the estimated value of Weibull scale
parameter α and shape parameter β respectively. The ‘standard
error’ indicates the standard deviation of the estimate, whereas Fig. 2. The relationship between duration and economic losses
the 95% confidence with lower and upper limits indicates the
general range of the estimate [23]. It can be seen that the expected economic losses derived by
(8) increases with duration. For harmonic distortions lasting
less than two hours, the economic losses are relatively small.
TABLE IV. RESULTS OF WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS
ESTIMATION Thereafter, the longer the durations are, the larger the economic
losses are. And the increment of economic losses becomes
95% Confidence Limits
steady when economic losses approaches maximum value. The
Weibull Standard variation in Fig.2 descripts relative realistic changes of
Estimate
Parameter Error Lower Upper expected economic losses with duration. For short harmonic
Limits Limits distortions, it will be less likely lead to interruptions, and the
α 12.05 0.39 11.30 12.85 expected losses are smaller. With the duration increasing,
β 2.93 0.21 2.54 3.36 customer are suffering more harmonic distortions and more
As shown in Table IV, the estimated Weibull parameters α likely result in interruptions, therefore, the expected losses are
and β are acceptable and reliable. Therefore, according to the increasing. As approaching the 100% probability of
Weibull distribution calculation, the interruption probability of interruptions, the expected economic losses become relatively
harmonic distortions (THD>5%) with duration t could be stable.
expressed as
C. Time Dependent Economic Losses
Based on the typical daily load data in Table II, the average
  t  2.93  load demand is calculated according to (4) as,
p ( t ) = 1 − exp  −    (7)
  12.05  
24

As described by (7), the probability of interruption L ω

occurrence will equal to nearly 100% when harmonic distortion La = ω =1

= 233.29kW
with THD>5% is lasting long enough, which is around 28 24
hours in this case.
As the data of daily load variations are observed every one
Given the average economic losses of interruptions due to
hour, according to (5), the time dependent economic losses due
harmonic distortions are around $1,614, and as derived from
to harmonic distortions within one hour could be expressed
 2016 IEEE 8th International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference (IPEMC-ECCE Asia)

harmonic distortion cost appears larger when load demand is

  ti  2.93 
C ( ti ) = λωti × 1614 × 37.8 × {1 − exp  −    (9) higher, which are peak hours.
  12.05   2) t10 =10 hour
As for duration longer than one hour or cover more than one When the duration goes up to 10 hours, the harmonic
observation interval, the harmonic distortion cost could be distortions cover more than one observation intervals, which is
represented based on (6), 10 here. In this case, γ=10, and the harmonic distortion cost
could be represented as


( )  

2.93

t1
= λω t × 1614 × 37.8 × 1 − exp  −
( )  
Ct
   
2.93
total 1

12.05 1
Ct = λω t × 1614 × 37.8 × 1 − exp  −
 

 (

)    
( ) 
total 1

γ
2.93 2.93
12.05
tx t x −1
 1 − exp  

λ

 ( )   ( ) 

+1614 × 37.8 × − − 1 − exp −
     
2.93 2.93
kt 10
x

12.05 12.05 tx t x −1
+1614 × 37.8 × λ 1 − exp
  
x=2
− − 1 − exp −

kt
x

Based on (9) and (10), the impacts of time of occurrence
are considered respectively. For harmonic distortions within
one hour, the time dependent economic losses could be
calculated according to (9); as for harmonic distortions lasting
longer than one hour, the time dependent economic losses
could be calculated according to (10).
The calculations of time dependent economic losses due to
harmonic distortions with different durations are demonstrated
below. Two scenarios are considered, harmonic distortions
(THD>5%) lasting 1 hour and lasting 10 hours.
1) t1 =1 hour
Assuming the duration of harmonic distortions just fits in
one observation interval, which means that harmonic
distortions start on each sharp o’clock, and end on the
following ones. Then, harmonic distortion cost could be
estimated according to (9) as
  1  2.93 
C ( ti ) = λωti × 1614 × 37.8 × {1 − exp  − 
  12.05  
And the variation of cost is descripted as Fig.3.
x=2
12.05 12.05
(10)
And the results are descripted in Fig.4.
Fig. 4. Variations of harmonic distortion cost (t=10 hour)
The Fig.4 shows a different type of harmonic cost variation.
With durations increased, the curve of harmonic distortion cost
variation become smooth and the expected economic losses are
much larger, which increased from around $200 to $25,000.
The harmonic variation with the highest cost appears around
  7am in the morning and lasts the whole peak hours, while the
harmonic variation with the lowest cost appears around 8pm in
the evening and lasts the whole off-peak hours. For durations
covering more than one observation intervals, the harmonic
distortions during peak hours will result in more economic
losses. In contrast, the harmonic distortions during off-peak
hours will cause less economic losses.
Based on the results of numeric examples, this proposed
time dependent harmonic distortion cost model not only reveals
the effect of duration, but also indicates the effect of time of
occurrence.

V. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, a time dependent cost model is proposed
based on Wei-bull probability function and the time varying
coefficient. This cost model is used to describe the characters
Fig. 3. Variations of harmonic distortion cost (t=1 hour) of interruption cost due to harmonic distortions. According to
the calculation of interruption probability due to harmonic
As shown in Fig.3, though not exactly the same, the variations with THD>5%, the effects of duration could be
harmonic distortion cost describes a similar variation as load considered in Wei-bull distribution dependent cost model.
demands. The harmonic distortion cost appears smaller when Then based on the relationship between load demand and
load demand is lower, which are off-peak hours; and the
 2016 IEEE 8th International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference (IPEMC-ECCE Asia)
economic losses, a time varying coefficient is proposed to
indicate the effects of time of occurrence in harmonic cost
calculation.
According to a numeric example, the accuracy and
practicability of this model is proved. The results indicate
relatively realistic and continuous variations of expected
harmonic distortion cost. The expected interruption costs are
increasing with the duration, and harmonic distortions during
peak hours will result in more economic losses. In additional,
the time dependent cost possesses the similar variation as the
real time load demand, which reflects the differences in time of
occurrence. Without considering the effect of time of
occurrence, the harmonic distortion cost would be a constant
value for a given duration, which is impossible in real world.
This cost model provides a time dependent harmonic distortion
cost with different time of occurrence and duration. It reflects
both impacts of the probability of occurrence and time of
occurrence, and provides a useful evaluation tool for harmonic
regulations and investments.
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